Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar is declining against the pound and the Australian currency, however, it shows a sideways trend paired with the euro and is growing against the yen. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of PPI in the US (15:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.1% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 2.5% in December. In the afternoon, speeches by members of the US Federal Reserve are expected. Speech by Neel Kashkari is planned for 18:30 (GMT+2), and speeches by Esther George and Robert Kaplan are expected at 20:00 (GMT+2). From their speeches, investors are hoping to understand the intentions of the regulator regarding the rate hike in 2019. Speeches of officials of this rank can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1449–1.1488. Investors are awaiting publication of data from the euro area on the trade balance (12:00 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (17:00 GMT+2).

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.2908 during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit. Theresa May calls on MPs to approve the treaty, arguing that the consequences could otherwise be catastrophic. In case of failure of the vote, the Prime Minister will have three working days to prepare an alternative version of the contract.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is rising actively and has reached the level of 108.74 during the Asian session. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Japan, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD is rising having reached 0.7217 during the Asian session. Against the background of the absence of macroeconomic releases from Australia, the movement of the instrument's rate is of a technical nature.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1290.00.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar moderately strengthens against the euro and the yen, but shows a lateral trend paired with the Australian currency. Statistics from the USA, published yesterday, indicated a decline in the Producer Price Index to –0.2% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, but did not have a significant impact on the instrument. Investors continue to follow the news regarding the US government shutdown, which has been going on for the fourth week and, according to representatives of the administration, may last until the end of February. This situation threatens the market with possible negative consequences. Macroeconomic statistics, which can influence USD today, include the data on retail sales in the USA (15:30 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1410. EUR is under pressure from yesterday’s speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. The official believes that the slowdown in the economy can last longer than expected. Uncertainty about Brexit puts additional pressure on the euro. Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected an agreement on the UK leaving the EU, prepared by Prime Minister Theresa May.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday amid heightened volatility caused by the outcome of a vote in the UK Parliament on withdrawal from the EU. Quotes fell to the level of 1.2667, after which they quickly returned to the level of 1.2869, where they are trading during today's Asian session. Yesterday, the British MPs rejected an agreement prepared by the government of Theresa May and the EU. MPs voted 432 to 202 to defeat the proposal. Now the Prime Minister has three days to present an alternative to the Brexit agreement. During this time, Theresa May will probably try to get new concessions from the EU, as well as convince the Parliament to support the deal. The instrument today may be affected by the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney (11:15 GMT+2), as well as statistics on the CPI in the UK in December (11:30 GMT+2).

USD/JPY

After active growth on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair corrected down to 108.47 during today's Asian session. Yesterday's statistics from Japan was ignored by investors. The movement of the instrument rate is primarily technical. Tertiary Industry Activity Index was better than expected, but worse than in the previous month and amounted to –0.3% in December against 2.2% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows lateral dynamics within the range of 0.7224–0.7178 and has changed slightly on the whole.

Gold

Quotes of gold have ambiguous dynamics. After an active decline yesterday and a test of the level of 1286.56, the instrument rate returned to 1292.15 during the Asian session.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar is moving horizontally paired with the euro, falling against the pound and the Australian currency, but is strengthening against the yen. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. The number of initial jobless claims dropped to 213K from 216K a week earlier, which is the lowest level in the last 5 weeks. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was better than expected reaching 17.0 points in January against 9.1 points a month earlier. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Industrial Production in the US. It is expected that the indicator will fall to 0.2% in December from 0.6% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1370–1.1403. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of euro area lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on the news from the US. Investors continue monitoring the development of the situation around Brexit. After the failure of a vote in the British Parliament, Theresa May must prepare a fallback deal.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics and rose to 1.2970 during the Asian session. Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence and is preparing an alternative Brexit deal for January 21. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on retail sales in the UK (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.8% in December from 1.4% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 3.6% in December.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY rose to 109.37 due to the positive statistics from the US. Statistics from Japan published this night puts pressure on the yen. National Core CPI went down to 0.7% in December from 0.9% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7202 during the Asian session. In the absence of significant releases, the movement of AUD is technical.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1291.02.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

After active growth on Friday, the US dollar is moderately declining against most majors during today's Asian session. Due to the holiday in the US, investors correct their long dollar positions. Investors are still focused on the US-China trade negotiations. The market remains optimistic, perceiving data on a possible softening of the American position as a sign of a conclusion of a big deal.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1375 during the Asian session due to correction of USD. Due to the absence of important releases in the euro area, the movement of the instrument is technical.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing negative dynamics having declined to 1.2856 during the Asian session. There are no significant releases planned in the British macroeconomic calendar today. Today Prime Minister Theresa May is to submit an alternative option for the country's withdrawal from the EU to the UK Parliament.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the pair USD/JPY decreased to 109.57 due to the low trading activity. Due to the absence of important releases in the US and Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair went up to the level of 0.7167 during the Asian session, ignoring the weak data on HIA New Home Sales in Australia. According to statistics published tonight, the value of the index fell to –6.7% in December from 3.6% a month earlier.

Gold

During the Asian session, the quotations of gold tried to consolidate below 1281.25 several times, but failed and the rate moved to the phase of the upward correction.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

Morning Market Review
2019-01-22 10:12 (GMT+2)
USD strengthens moderately against most majors, with the exception of the yen. On Monday, the American stock exchanges were closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, so there was a decrease in trading activity. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on existing home sales in the US (17:00 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to reduce to 5.25M in January from 5.32M a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1355 against the background of low trading activity. Investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on ZEW Economic Sentiment. The indicator is expected to amount to –20.1 points in January against –21.0 points a month earlier. Despite the expected small increase in the indicator, pessimism in European business circles will continue to prevail, which could adversely affect the euro.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is moderately declining and is trading at 1.2878 during the Asian session. Yesterday, Theresa May presented an alternative Brexit plan in the British Parliament. As it turned out, the fallback is not much different from the previous one, rejected by Parliament. Among the main differences proposed there is the abolition of 65 pounds fee for EU citizens who want to stay in the UK after Brexit. A repeated referendum on the issue of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU will not be held. Also, the British Prime Minister said that the government has changed its policy and will listen more to the opinion of MPs during the work on a new Brexit agreement. Macroeconomic releases that could have an impact on the pound today include data on unemployment and average earnings in the UK (11:30 GMT+2).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is declining moderately and is testing the level of 109.37 during the Asian session. As there is lack of key economic releases, the instrument is traded under the influence of technical factors.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.7138 during the Asian session. The pressure on the Australian currency is still exerted by weak data on new home sales in Australia, as well as weak statistics on China's GDP for the fourth quarter.

Gold

After testing the level of 1277.20, gold quotations slightly corrected upwards, but the downward trend still persists.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

US dollar is falling against most majors. Yesterday's weak statistics on Existing Home Sales in the US exerts pressure on the instrument. The indicator went down to 4.99M in December from 5.33M in the previous month (–6.4%). The US macroeconomic calendar lacks important releases today. The movement of the USD paired with other currencies will be affected by the external factors. On the whole, the longest-lasting government shutdown continues to have a negative impact on the instrument. The parties are still far from a compromise, so it is possible that the government agencies shutdown will last until February or March. Such a scenario can lead to a weakening of the national economy by 0.5%.

EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1366 due to the weakening USD. In the absence of news from the US and the euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by technical factors.

GBP/USD

Quotes of the pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2939, where they are consolidating during the Asian session. Yesterday's strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as the general weakening of the US currency, support the pound. Today, market participants are waiting for the publication of data on CBI Industrial Trends Orders. The indicator is expected to drop to 5 points in January from 8 points in the previous month. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Pressure on the yen is exerted by weak export data and All Industries Activity Index of the Japanese economy. Exports fell to –3.8% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, which is the most significant drop in the last two years. All Industries Activity Index went down to –0.3% in November from 2.1% a month earlier. As expected, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at –0.10% and lowered its forecast for core consumer inflation from 1.4% to 0.9% in the fiscal year starting in April.

AUD/USD

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD rose to the level of 0.7141 due to the general weakening of USD. Due to the absence of important releases, the movement of the instrument is technical.

Gold

Due to the yesterday's weak US statistics, gold quotations increased to 1284.00.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamics against most majors, falling against the euro, pound and the yen, but strengthening against the Australian dollar. Today, market participants expect the publication of data from the United States on Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+2), as well as on Manufacturing PMI (16:45 GMT+2). It is expected that the number of initial jobless claims will rise to 220K from 213K a week earlier. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 53.5 points in January from 53.8 points a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

During yesterday's trading, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair strengthened significantly and reached the level of 1.1380, near which they are consolidating during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on the Manufacturing PMI as well as on Services PMI (11:00 GMT+2), and also for the ECB interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 0.00%. Today at 15:30 GMT+2, Mario Draghi is expected to give a press conference. It is expected that the head of the ECB will describe the risks to the European economy and assess the results of the completed asset purchase program. Draghi’s opinion will be particularly important due to the potential aggravation of trade relations between the US and the EU. Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 51.4 points in January. Services PMI is expected to grow to 51.5 points in January from 51.2 points a month before.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD is showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.3070 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the likely extension of the Brexit negotiation process and the postponement of the UK’s final withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of the UK lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on external factors.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY dropped to 109.57 due to the general weakening of USD. As there is a lack of key economic releases, the movement of the price is of technical nature.

AUD/USD

During the Asian trading session, the quotes of AUD/USD are traded in both directions. After the publication of positive statistics on the labor market in Australia, the rate of the instrument rose to the level of 0.7165, after which it just as quickly went down to the level of 0.7103. Employment Change turned out to be better than the forecasts and amounted to 21.6K in December against 37.0K a month earlier (with the forecast of +16.5K). The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0% in December from 5.1% a month earlier.

Gold

Gold quotations are falling moderately having dropped to 1281.25 during Asian trading.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar is strengthening against the euro and the yen, but is declining against the pound and the AUD. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.9 points in January from 53.8 a month earlier. Initial jobless claims dropped to 199K from 212K a week earlier. Services PMI was better than the forecast of 54.0 points, but dropped to 54.2 points in January from 54.4 points a month earlier. Fundamental events today include Durable Goods Orders data in the US (15:30 GMT+2). It is expected that the indicator will rise to 1.8% in December from –4.3% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will support the instrument in the short run.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD quotes amid yesterday's weak statistics on business activity indices in the eurozone and the ECB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.00% at least until the end of summer fell to 1.1288. However, during today's Asian session, they are corrected upwards. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on German Ifo Business Climate Index. The indicator is expected to fall to 100.7 points in January from 101.0 points a month earlier. If the forecast is implemented, the rate of the instrument will fall under additional pressure.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3131 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the news about Democratic Unionist Party's intention to support the alternative Brexit deal by Theresa May next week. Today, traders are waiting for statistics from the UK gross mortgage approvals (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to decline to 38.9K in December from 39.4K a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, it could put pressure on the pound in the short term.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Statistics from Japan released at night indicated an increase in Tokyo Core CPI to 1.1% in January from 0.9% a month earlier, but could not provide support to the yen.

AUD/USD

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD are declining moderately having amounted to 0.7095 at the backdrop of the absence of macroeconomic releases.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold are growing moderately and consolidated above the level of 1280.00.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1410. The market remains optimistic after the temporary cessation of the government shutdown in the United States. On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a decree financing the government for a period of three weeks. Trump made a deal with the Democrats, who, according to the American media, promised to allocate a significant part of the budget for the construction of the border wall with Mexico. It is not excluded that in three weeks the shutdown will resume if promises are not kept. During the day, European investors will be waiting for the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. Perhaps he will share his opinion on the state of the European economy. Last week after the regulator's meeting, Draghi noted that the risks to the growth of the European economy had become negative, which is associated with geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism. However, the likelihood of a recession in the euro area is low.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD started the week trading in the range of 1.3180–1.3210. Investors hope that within a week the issue of Brexit can be clarified. On Tuesday, a second vote is expected on a deal with the EU, but since the second version of the agreement does not differ much from the one rejected by the House of Commons, the chances for its support by the MPs are low. Repeated rejection of a deal with the EU could lead to the extension of negotiations and even to concessions from the leadership of the European Union, since neither side wants a tough Brexit. During the day, the market is waiting for the speech of Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, who can share his opinion on the prospects of the British economy in connection with Brexit, as well as highlight the further monetary policy of the regulator.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7202 amid reports of the resumption of the US government, but has now corrected to the area of 0.7190. However, in general, the pair is moving under the influence of technical factors, since it is a day off in Australia, the stock exchanges are closed, and trading activity is low.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session continued declining and reached the level of 109.30. The yen is being strengthened as a safe haven asset against the background of a possible delay in the negotiations between the US and the PRC. Last week, US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that the parties are still far from the deal. Today, the minutes of the last meeting of the Japanese regulator was published, but it did not give anything new to investors. Bank of Japan officials noted that in general, the Japanese economy continues to grow moderately, exports, industrial production and domestic demand increase moderately as well. Inflation continues to move to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, the risks of world trade instability and increased protectionism remain. Under these conditions, the regulator will continue to maintain its current "dovish" monetary policy until inflation reaches 2.0%. Rates will remain at the same level for a long time.

Gold

Quotes of gold had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. At first, after a significant increase on Friday, they corrected to the level of 1300.00, but now they have won back their positions and are trading at the level of 1303.00.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Monday afternoon, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the area of 1.1415, but has now recovered some of the losses and is trading at 1.1434. In general, investors are concerned about the official charges by the US authorities against the Chinese corporation Huawei. The company is accused of two dozen crimes including violating the sanctions regime against Iran and stealing technology from the American company T-Mobile. This information appeared on the eve of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China, and may well complicate them significantly. Additional pressure on the euro was put by the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. He said that recent economic data was worse than expected, and the reason for this was the decline in external demand and the threat of protectionism. Draghi also noted that in case of deterioration of the European economy, the regulator may use additional instruments to support it. During the day, investors are waiting for the publication in the US consumer confidence index from Conference Board. It is expected that the figure will fall for the third month in a row, this time from 128.1 to 124.7 points. The implementation of the forecast could put pressure on USD.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD traded within the range of 1.3160–1.3144 during the Asian session. The market is calm, as investors are waiting for a new vote in the British parliament to be held today. The MPs would like to make a number of changes in the deal with the EU. A total of 14 amendments were proposed, including the exclusion of the possibility of no deal Brexit, a delay of several months and a temporary restriction on the backstop mechanism, according to which Northern Ireland should follow EU customs and trade rules until the parties agree on the Irish border. EU officials insisted that the backstop should be permanent, but this does not satisfy the majority of British MPs. If this amendment is adopted, the negotiations may come to a standstill, since Brussels had previously stated that they would not make any changes to the contract.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD showed ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 0.7137, the price recovered and is now trading at 0.7170. Australian investors are monitoring the situation around Huawei, accused in the US of economic crimes. This situation may adversely affect the trade negotiations between the United States and China, which will put pressure on the Australian economy. The speech of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who said that Australia could expect the first in 28 years economic recession if the ruling party loses the next general election, is also in the focus.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 109.12, the instrument won back the losses and reached the level of 109.25. The yen is under pressure from the Cabinet of Ministers report, which lowered the estimate of exports of Japanese goods in January for the first time in three months. The reason for this was the trade conflict between China and the United States. The supplies of equipment for the production of electronics and semiconductors to the PRC suffered the most.

Gold

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1306.00. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair has grown and is currently trading at 1.1445. Investors are encouraged by the statements of US officials regarding the upcoming trade negotiations with China. Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the President remains moderately optimistic about the possibility of concluding a trade agreement with the PRC by March, despite the situation with Huawei. Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, in turn, noted that the government expects significant progress in the upcoming negotiations, primarily in the access of American companies to the Chinese market and the protection of technology. On the other hand, negative data on Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in January for the third month in a row and amounted to 120.2 points (the worst figure since 2017), put pressure on USD. According to experts, the decline is due to the general instability of the markets and the partial closure of the US government.

During the day, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on US GDP for Q4 2018 (a decrease from 3.4% to 2.6% is expected) and data on ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (a decrease from 271K to 170K is expected). However, the most important event of the day will be the Fed's decision on the interest rate and comments by representatives of the regulator. The rate is expected to remain at the same level of 2.50%. However, investors are more interested in the number of rate increases planned for the current year.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair corrected upwards, partly winning back the positions lost the day before. The British currency is under pressure from the results of voting in the British Parliament regarding amendments to the Brexit deal. Yvette Cooper's amendment, which allows postponing the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union from March 29 to December 31 2018, was rejected, and Graham Brady's amendment, changing the article on backstop, passed the vote. Now Teresa May should return to Brussels and try to get new concessions from EU officials, based on the results of the vote. However, representatives of the European Union have repeatedly stated that they will not change the text of the deal; therefore the chances of success for the British Prime Minister are quite low.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7200 against the background of positive data on inflation in Australia. CPI rose from 0.4% to 0.5% QoQ and decreased from 1.9% to 1.8% YoY. Thus, Australian inflation remains close to the target level of 2.0%.

USD/JPY

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair generally declined and is now testing the level of 109.25. JPY is supported by December retail sales data, which grew by 1.3%, exceeding market expectations. It is likely that sales will continue to grow over the coming months as citizens seek to make acquisitions ahead of the planned increase in sales tax from 8% to 10% this autumn.

Gold

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1314.95. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair continued to grow and has now risen to 1.1508. Investors positively assessed the results of the Fed meeting where it was decided to leave the interest rate in the range of 2.25% –2.50%. During the press conference, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that at the moment there are fewer arguments in favor of the rate increase, therefore the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach. Powell also noted that in the current year the growth rate of the American economy may slow down. The government shutdown may lead to a decrease in GDP in Q1 2019, but if there are no new shutdowns, then in Q2 2019 the economy will recover its losses. USD was also supported by ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data. In January, the growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 213K.

During the day, the market is waiting for the release of data on euro area GDP (expected to decline from 1.6% to 1.2%), for Initial Jobless Claims in the US (growth is expected to 215K) and for New Home Sales (expected to increase from 544K to 560K).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair was growing during the Asian session and reached the level of 1.3137. The pound strengthened against the background of a positive market reaction to the results of the Fed meeting. However, in general, the situation for GBP remains difficult. In the near future, the pound will be under pressure from the negative reaction of European officials to the British MPs backstop amendment. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have already opposed it. EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, noted that the backstop rule is a realistic solution to prevent the creation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and therefore should remain unchanged. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the last vote in the British Parliament increased the risk of a tough Brexit, but expressed the hope that the deal could still be concluded. In general, it does not seem that Brussels would make concessions to London, and this increases the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU without a deal or cancellation of Brexit in order to prevent economic losses.

AUD/USD

At the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD grew to 0.7270. In addition to the outcome of the Fed meeting, the Australian dollar is supported by positive Chinese statistics. In January, Manufacturing PMI of China grew for the first time in five months and amounted to 49.5 points. Non-Manufacturing PMI increased for the second month in a row, this time from 53.8 to 54.7 points.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session were falling and are now at 108.67. The yen is supported by positive Chinese statistics on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and the outcome of the Fed meeting. Also, the Japanese currency is supported by data on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which declined by 0.1% in December, which is much less than the market expected (decrease by 0.5%) and November figures (decrease by 1.0%). In general, the slowdown in the decline in production indicates the prospects for the recovery of the Japanese economy.

Gold

Quotes of gold at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 1320.30–1317.15. The pressure on the US dollar and the demand for the precious metal were the result of recent decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair declined moderately at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1430. USD is strengthening against the backdrop of statements by US President Donald Trump, who said on Twitter that trade negotiations with the Chinese delegation are going well and the parties are trying to conclude a deal without leaving a single issue unresolved. However, Trump indicated that he would not enter into a trade agreement until he met with PRC Chairman Xi Jinping again. Such a meeting may take place at the end of February in China. In general, the market remains optimistic, hoping for a resolution of the conflict between the United States and China. Also, the US currency is supported by strong November data on new home sales in the USA. The growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 657K.

During the day the market will be waiting for the January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain st the same level of 3.9%. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to reduce from 312K to 165K. Today's data may be better than expected, as the leading indicator of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change exceeded market expectations and amounted to 213K. In this case, the strengthening of the dollar will continue.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was declining and is now trading at 1.3090. The British currency is under pressure from the uncertainty of Brexit. The European Union is not going to make concessions to the UK and change the current text of the deal in accordance with the amendments of the British MPs. Under these conditions, the assumption that the UK’s exit date from the EU may be postponed to a later date does not subside. British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, hinted at this in an interview with the BBC.

Today, the release of the January Manufacturing PMI in the UK is expected. After two months of growth, the indicator is expected to resume the decline and drop from 54.2 to 53.5 points, which could put pressure on GBP.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has been declining during today's Asian session and is currently trading at 0.7240. AIG Manufacturing PMI data were positive. In January, the indicator grew from 49.5 to 52.5 points. However, the Australian currency was unable to strengthen due to the weakness of the real estate market, whose condition continues to deteriorate. In January, housing prices again fell by 1%, and on an annualized basis they declined by 5.6%.

USD/JPY

Quotes of USD/JPY at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 108.90–108.80. The latest Japanese statistics turned out to be strong. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% (the lowest since 1992). And Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose in January from 50.0 to 50.3 points.

Gold

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1317.15. The decline is happening against the backdrop of investor hopes that the US and the PRC will sign a trade deal.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and has now dropped to 1.1440 (–0.12%). The dollar is strengthened against the background of positive January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. However, investors attach greater importance to employment growth: the indicator increased from 206K to 296K. Also, the positions of the US currency were strengthened by the statistics on Manufacturing PMI. In January, the indicator grew from 54.3 to 56.6 points. Finally, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a voting member of the FOMC, James Bullard hinted once again that there would be no further rate increase in the near future. In an interview to CNBC, he noted that "the level of rates is very good where it is today", and "now it’s time to wait and see how the economy develops".

During the day, the data on the volume of factory orders in the United States for November will be published. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3%, which may provide additional support for the American currency.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD in the Asian session goes down smoothly. By now the pair has dropped to 1.3065 (–0.07%). The British currency is under pressure from the poor statistics and the uncertainty of Brexit. Manufacturing PMI, published on Friday in the UK, fell sharply in January and reached 52.8 points, the lowest in the last three months. The situation with Brexit continues to be deadlock, which negatively affects the pound. The UK is seeking to make alternative arrangement on backstop, but the EU does not intend to renegotiate the issue. British Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox, called such a position of European officials "irresponsible." Meanwhile, the Prime Minister Theresa May still intends to go to Brussels and seek new concessions.

During the day, the data on Construction PMI in January will be published in the UK. It is expected that the figure will fall for the second month in a row, this time from 52.8 to 52.6 points. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD opened trading week with the decline, dropping to around 0.7225 (–0.29%). The Australian dollar is weakening due to negative data on the number of building approvals. In December, on a monthly basis, their number decreased again (for the third month in a row), this time by 8.4%. In total, last year reduction was 22%. The decline in housing prices has resulted in the refusal of companies to construct new buildings, which leads to a reduction in the construction sector and pressure on the Australian currency.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session rose reaching 109.75 (+0.26%). The US dollar is strengthening against the yen due to the positive labor market data, which in general turned out to be better than expected. In addition, the confidence in the postponement of a new tightening of the Fed monetary policy is being strengthened, which also supports the US currency.

Gold

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1312.15 (–0.42%). The price is falling against the general strengthening of the dollar due to strong data on the US labor market.

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was traded within the range 1.1439–1.1428. In general, negative data on production orders in the USA and the threat of a new government shutdown put pressure on the US currency. Factory orders in November, instead of the expected growth of 0.3%, declined by 0.6% for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, the US government was threatened with a new shutdown, since its current funding will only last until February 15. The contract of the Presidential Administration and the Democrats implied that they would conclude an agreement and seek USD 5.7 billion to build a wall on the Mexican border, but so far it has not been reached. President Donald Trump has already called further negotiations useless. The latest shutdown caused damage to the national economy in the amount of USD 6 billion, so the threat of a new closure unnerves the market.

Today, President Trump will speak in Congress and will share his plans for the future. Also during the day, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of economic statistics. January data on the euro area's Services PMI (probably the level of 50.8 points will remain), as well as on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (probably decreasing to 57.0 points) and on retail sales in the euro area (a decrease is probable) will be released.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was moderately growing and is now trading at 1.3040. In general, the British currency continues to remain under pressure. Prime Minister Theresa May continues consultations on Brexit deal with Members of Parliament. Some hope of a compromise with the EU came after German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, noted that new British proposals on the Irish border should be heard.

During the day, the January the UK Services PMI is expected to be published, which, following the Manufacturing and Construction PMI, may be weak (a decrease from 51.2 to 51.1 points is expected), which may put additional pressure on the pound.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD demonstrated ambiguous dynamics. At first, it dropped to 0.7192, but then it has won the losses back and is now trading at around 0.7260. December data on retail sales in Australia were poor. On a monthly basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, while in quarterly terms it slowed down from 0.2% to 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia expectedly kept the interest rate at around 1.50%, but in the accompanying statements the regulator expressed optimism, which supported the national currency. The RBA officials continue to wait for further reductions in unemployment and inflation growth to target levels, but due to global trade tensions, the downside risks in the economy have increased.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the growth to 110.00, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

Gold

Gold quotations rose to 1315.00 during the Asian session. Investors fear a sharpening of the political struggle in the United States and the possibility of another government shutdown, which is fraught with new multi-billion dollar losses.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and is now traded at 1.1395 (–0,08%). The dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of a speech by US President Donald Trump in Congress, where the unprecedented growth of the national economy in the past two years was mentioned. In particular, the creation of 5.3M new jobs, more than 600K of which was new jobs in production, a decrease in unemployment and a rise in wages were noted.

During the day, data on changes in the trade balance (the deficit is expected to decrease to –54.0B dollars), data on Nonfarm Productivity (Q4), as well as data on Unit Labor Costs (Q4) will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is moving in the lateral channel and is now trading at 1.2950. The British currency fell sharply yesterday, amid a decline in Services PMI from 51.2 to 50.1 points. Prime Minister Theresa May continues her visit to Northern Ireland, during which she expects to discuss changes in the backstop mechanism.

No significant macroeconomic releases are expected today in the UK.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows a sharp decline against the background of the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, in particular his comments on monetary policy. The head of the regulator said that the board of the Bank continues to carefully assess the prospects for the development of the economy and does not see compelling reasons for changing the level of rates in the short term. The pair has lost 0.99% and is currently trading around 0.7135.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to 109.60, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

Gold

Gold quotations declined to 1313.00 during the Asian session.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair consolidated after a decline and traded mostly in a narrow range of 1.1366–1.1357. The market positively assessed the comments of US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who noted that trade negotiations with representatives of the PRC are going very productively and the parties intend to make every effort to conclude a big trade deal before the beginning of March. Mnuchin will lead the US delegation, which will go to Beijing next week for a new round of trade negotiations. The dollar was under pressure from comments by former Fed Head, Janet Yellen, who supposed that the regulator could lower the interest rate in the event of a weakening global economic growth. Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not contain new information on monetary policy. He noted only that in the next decade, the United States will face an increase in the gap in the level of citizens' well-being and urged to fight it.

Today, there should be a meeting between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU officials to discuss changes in the terms of the Brexit deal. Its results can cause significant volatility in the market.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was traded within the narrow range 1.2935–1.2925. In addition to negotiations between representatives of the UK and the EU in Brussels, investors are preparing for the meeting of the Bank of England. The rate is expected to remain at the same level of 0.75%. Probably, under conditions of uncertainty with Brexit, the British regulator will not accept any change in monetary policy. However, Mark Carney can share his vision of the economic situation and action plans of the Bank of England in the event of a tough Brexit.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair continued declining at the Asian session and is now trading at 0.7093. Yesterday's comments from the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, continue to exert pressure on the Australian currency. The official said that he had previously assumed a further increase in interest rates, but now the position of the regulator has become more balanced. Investors interpreted these words as a hint at the possibility of reducing the rate. Currently, trade tensions, slowing global growth and the weakness of the Australian construction market contribute to this.

USD/JPY

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY quotes had ambiguous dynamics. After the decrease to the level of 109.71, the price won back most of the losses and is now at the level of 109.95. Japanese investors follow the news of the US-China trade negotiations and are encouraged by the latest statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the parties' desire to conclude a deal before the beginning of March. On the other hand, pressure on the yen is exerted by weak data on the Leading Index. The indicator has been falling for the third month in a row reaching the level of 97.9 points in February, making the lowest indicator since April 2016.

Gold

Quotes of gold in the Asian session continued to decline and are now trading at 1304.75. The weakening of the price is due to the prospects for the US and China to reach a trade deal.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex аналитика. Утренний обзор рынка

EUR/USD

The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading at the Asian session on February 8. Investors take profits after a confident euro rally throughout the current trading week.

The US currency continues to be in demand among investors, despite the publication of poor macroeconomic data. In addition, the market is actively discussing possible postponing of the planned meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping from February to the end of March. In general, optimism around the possible completion of the US-Chinese trade conflict has been declining recently, and the White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the countries are still far from concluding a deal.

European macroeconomic releases are often weak. The ECB economic bulletin, which had a significant pressure on the euro position, was published the day before. The document notes that growing external negative factors lead to an increase in risks for the European economy. Economic indicators show negative dynamics, therefore, in the near future, the regulator expects a slowdown in economic growth. For 2019, the growth forecast was revised from the previous +1.9% to +1.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in both directions during the Asian session on February 8. The British currency reacted quite actively to the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England the day before, but managed to show a slight increase in the afternoon session, having corrected after a steady decline throughout the week.

As expected, the Bank of England retained its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the decision was unanimous. The regulator also did not change other parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the volume of the bond purchase program at 435B pounds. At the same time, the Bank of England lowered forecasts for economic growth for the current year from 1.7% to 1.2%, noting a significant increase in uncertainty, primarily due to Brexit.

The market is waiting for the outcome of negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU leaders on additional amendments to the Brexit agreement on the Irish border.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows a negative trend during the Asian session on February 8, approaching strong support at the level of 0.7000. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes. The regulator has revised downward its own forecasts for economic growth for 2019-2020. At the end of this year, the RBA expects Australian economy to grow by 2.75% YoY and does not expect a change in this indicator by 2020.

The regulator also notes a significant reduction in inflation risks. By June 2019, the Consumer Price Index may slow down to +1.25% from the current +1.8%, after which it will gradually recover and reach target level of 2% closer to mid-2020.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to trade lower against the Japanese yen, but instrument activity remains quite low. Statistics from Japan published during the Asian session on February 8 did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the pair.

Household Spending in Japan rose by 0.1% YoY in December after declining by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a more active growth of 0.8% YoY. Average Cash Earnings indicator, which shows the average pre-tax income of an employee, increased by 1.8% YoY, having accelerated by 0.1% since last month.

Gold

Gold prices are consolidating after an attempt to reduce this week. The day before, prices showed an increase, departing from local lows amid increased uncertainty around the trade conflict between the PRC and the US and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data. In particular, the market reacted negatively to the slowdown in the German economy and the release of updated forecasts from the ECB.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session on February 11, still under pressure after a confident "bearish" rally last week. At the end of the week, the pair did not show the expected pullback, because the market received information that was able to support the US currency.

The Administration of US President Donald Trump confirmed his intention to hold official talks with China and announced a meeting in Beijing on February 14-15. Many experts believe that even if the negotiations do not end with the signing of a final agreement, the current import prices will remain at the same levels.

On Monday, the market does not expect the release of a large amount of interesting macroeconomic data from the euro area and the United States. Investors will focus on statistics on consumer inflation from Switzerland, Norway and Denmark. With the opening of the American session, preliminary data on the dynamics of costs per labor unit for the Q4 2018 will come to the market.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading in both directions, remaining in the area of 1.2900. At the end of the last trading week, the instrument managed to show a "bullish" correction, but no significant growth occurred. During the Asian session on February 11, the trading activity of the British currency remains rather low, as investors expect new drivers to appear in the market.

Today, the publication of interesting statistics from the UK is expected. The focus will be on preliminary data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q4 2018. The indicators are expected to decrease: +0.3% QoQ and +1.4% YoY against the previous +0.6% QoQ and +1.5% YoY. Investors will also be interested in December statistics on manufacturing production. Here, analysts expect improvements in dynamics: +0.2% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in November.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during the Asian session on February 11, corrected after a slurred decline at the end of last week. More confident correction of the Australian currency is hampered by the strengthening of the US dollar, which received additional support last Friday, after the administration of Donald Trump announced a meeting with the leaders of the PRC in Beijing.

On Monday, interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia is not expected, so investors will continue to rely mainly on data from the United States. In the meantime, moderate support for AUD is provided by published data from China. In particular, the rate of new loans issued in January rose sharply from 1080 to 2970 billion yuan.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows growth during the Asian session on February 11, correcting after the "bearish" end of the week. The instrument is supported by positive news around the US-PRC trade conflict. As it became known at the end of last week, the final meeting of the heads of the United States and China will be held in Beijing on February 14-15.

The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument contributes to the fact that the markets of Japan are closed on Monday due to the celebration of the National Foundation Day.

Oil

Oil quotes continue to trade in both directions, being under pressure from the fairly strong position of the US currency in the market. Previously, an additional growth factor was the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade conflict, especially after Donald Trump said on Thursday that he did not intend to meet with Xi Jinping before the deadlines for concluding a deal. However, on Friday Trump's administration announced a meeting of heads of the two states in Beijing on February 14-15.

Additional support for prices is provided by OPEC actions and US sanctions against Venezuela. Last week it became known that in January Saudi Arabia reduced oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day. New sanctions against Venezuela could reduce the total export volume by another 300-500 thousand barrels per day.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency continues to remain under pressure, updating local lows against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, at the Asian session on February 12, the instrument once again attempts correction. Investors are quite optimistic about the dollar against the background of the emerging progress on the issue of the US-China trade conflict. In turn, the euro is under pressure from disappointing macroeconomic statistics, reflecting a significant slowdown in the region’s major economies, in particular Germany. In addition, the market remains in suspense before Brexit, which will undoubtedly affect the economic situation. Today, investors will focus on speeches by the heads of the German Federal Bank, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows sluggish corrective growth at today's Asian session, correcting after a significant decline in the beginning of the week, which led to an update of the local lows of January 21. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument, in addition to a fairly strong position of the dollar in the market, was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 1.3% YoY last month. The GDP in December decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% in November. In quarterly terms, the growth rate of the economy fell sharply from +0.6% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which, however, coincided with the expectations of analysts.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of 4 January. The growth of AUD takes place against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and is largely technical in nature. NAB Business Confidence rose from 3 to 4 points in January. NAB Business Survey jumped from 2 to 7 points over the same period, while the forecast was 4 points. At the same time, the Home Loans indicator reflected a decline in loans issued in December by 6.1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in November. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to strengthen, but counted on only –2.0% MoM decline.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of December 28, 2018. The markets of Japan were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, so the dynamics of the instrument was subject to external factors. During the Asian session on February 12, investors are awaiting the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Among it, Tertiary Industry Activity Index in January and a preliminary estimate of Machine Tool Orders in January can be highlighted.

Oil

Oil prices showed a negative trend at the beginning of the week, but managed to correct closer to the end of the afternoon session on February 11. Quotes are falling due to the growth of drilling activity in the United States, as was recorded in the Baker Hughes report at the end of the last trading week. Additional pressure comes from the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite the preliminary agreements reached on the date of commencement of the official meeting of heads of the two states. If negotiations fail, the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1. Similar responses will be taken by China, which will further complicate the situation. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for February 8. The previous report reflected the growth of stocks by 2.514 million barrels.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair rose to the area of 1.1340 (+0.11%). The US currency is weakening, despite the positive comments by US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, made the day before. Trump said he was ready to postpone the expiration of the trade truce from March 2, if there is a serious chance to sign a trade deal. Speaking in Mississippi on Tuesday, Powell noted that the US economy looks strong, resulting in low unemployment and good economic growth. However, the regulator will continue to look for ways to combat poverty.

During the day the publication of important statistical data is expected. The euro area's December statistics on the volume of industrial production promises to be weak. On an annualized basis, production could be reduced for the second month in a row, by another 3.2%. On a monthly basis, a reduction of 0.4% is possible. In the United States, January inflation data will be released. On an annualized basis, the Consumer Price Index may drop significantly from 1.9% to 1.5%, and the Core Consumer Price Index can decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. Current forecasts do not contribute to the strengthening of neither the dollar nor the euro.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2920 (+0.24%). Investors were not scared by the pessimistic comments of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Speaking on Tuesday, he called on the British parliament to break the impasse over Brexit, warning that withdrawing from the EU without a deal would be an economic shock for the UK, which is especially dangerous against the backdrop of China’s recession and world trade tensions. Currently, investors are curtailing activity, waiting for the resolution of the situation. Carney noted that a 3% decline in the Chinese economy will lead to a reduction in world GDP by 1%, and the introduction of the US additional 10% export tariffs on leading trading partners could reduce world production by 1%.

During the day, the market is waiting for the publication of the January data on inflation in the UK. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index on an annualized basis will continue to decline and for the first time since January 2017 it will fall below the target level, reaching 1.9%. The Core Consumer Price Index can remain at the same level of 1.9%. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

AUD/USD

In the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the area of 0.7132 (+0.55%) against the background of the positive February data on the Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia. After a decrease by 4.7% in January, the index rose by 4.3% in February, which is encouraging investors. However, the overall situation with the Australian economy remains alarming, helped by the weakening of the Australian construction market and world trade tensions.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair rose in the Asian session, reaching 110.60 (+0.14%). As there is a lack of key economic releases in Japan, the movement of JPY is of technical nature. Investors are waiting for the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the PRC and the United States, held in Beijing.

Gold

Quotes of gold in the Asian session are corrected upwards after a significant fall on Tuesday. Currently, the price has reached the level of 1314.00 (+0.23%) and almost won back the positions lost the day before.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD is corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. The price has reached the level of 1.1282 (gaining 0.24%). Yesterday investors' hopes raised amid the information about the likely meeting of the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping with the leaders of the American trade delegation Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer since both parties can manage to conclude a deal before the end of the truce on March 2. The latest data on inflation in the United States were also positive. In January, the consumer price index fell less than expected by the market and amounted to 1.6%. Core CPI remained at 2.2%.

During the day, the market awaits the publication of data on the Eurozone GDP in 4Q2018. The indicator is expected to remain at 0.2% QoQ and at 1.2% YoY. In the United States, statistics on sales will be published. According to forecasts, the indicator may reduce from 0.2% to 0.1%, which may cause pressure on USD.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was rising after a significant decline on Wednesday. Quotes have reached the level of 1.2870 (gaining 0.22%). Investors are waiting for the situation around Brexit to develop. Yesterday, there was the information that the European Commission may agree to postpone the withdrawal of Britain from the EU from March 29 this year. However, later, Prime Minister Theresa May said in the Parliament that she intends to complete Brexit by the due date. Today, a new debate on the further steps of the UK regarding the deal with the EU should be held in the House of Commons.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD was growing at the Asian session and has now reached the level of 0.7123 (adding 0.29%). Investors are hoping for a possible conclusion of the US-China trade deal, the likelihood of which is indicated by the upcoming meeting of PRC President Xi Jinping and the American representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer. In the evening, the market is waiting for the speech of the assistant to the head of the RBA, Christopher Kent, with the report "Financial Conditions and the Australian Dollar", which may contain hints on the regulator's further policy.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to the level of 110.85 was replaced by growth and now the instrument is at 111.10. Statistics released today showed Japanese GDP growth in 4Q2018 by 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which can be considered a good result after the economic contraction in Q3. GDP growth was provided by an increase in capital expenditures of companies by 2.4%. However, further economic growth may be hindered by a new sales tax, which the Japanese government is going to impose this year.

Gold

During the Asian session, gold quotes are corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. Now, the price is at the level of 1309.00 (having added 0.31%).

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was correcting down after Thursday growth. Currently, the price is at the level of 1.1282, having lost 0.1%. Yesterday, the dollar was pressured by a number of negative factors. Statistics on US retail sales for December was weak. The sales volume unexpectedly fell by 1.2%, and it was even 3.9% in the e-commerce sector. This decline was the biggest in 9 years, it could put pressure on GDP. Fed spokeswoman Lael Brainard said she was concerned about the state of the American economy, as the risks to its growth are increasing. But most of all, the market was alarmed by information that President Donald Trump could sign a draft security agreement between Democrats and Republicans, while simultaneously imposing a state of emergency in several states. Thus, the government will not be closed, but the administration will be able to finance the border wall, bypassing Congress.

During the day, data on retail sales in the United States will be published. In December, the figure may remain at 0.2%.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD traded within the lateral range of 1280.00-1.2788. Yesterday, the pound was pressured due to another defeat of Teresa May in parliament. Deputies of the House of Commons rejected a proposal that would confirm the government’s mandate for further negotiations on Brexit. 258 voted for the proposal, and 303 parliamentarians opposed it. Some representatives of the Conservative Party abstained, which predetermined the defeat of May. This vote did not have legal force, but it showed the instability of positions and raised doubts that the Prime Minister would be able to persuade the parliament to approve the deal with the EU.

During the day, data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published. In January, the figure may grow by 0.2%, and YoY, from 3.0% to 3.4%. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to GBP.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD had an ambiguous dynamic. The decline to 0.7078 was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which part of the losses was won back. Now the instrument is at the level of 0.7090, having lost about 0.15%. AUD is pressured by weak Chinese inflation data. In January, the consumer price index in China slowed growth and amounted to 1.7%. In Melbourne, RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, noted that one should not be surprised at some weakening of AUD in view of a reduction in global economic activity and forecasts of deterioration of trade in Australia itself.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to 110.25 was replaced by growth to the level of 110.36. As a result, the pair lost 0.1%. JPY is generally pressured by weak data on the volume of industrial production in Japan. In December, it declined for the second consecutive month, this time by 0.1%.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold rose, reaching 1314.00 and adding about 0.6%.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro is trading in a downtrend during the Asian session on February 19, after a slight rise yesterday. Monday’s growth was largely technical in nature, as US markets were closed on the occasion of a national holiday, and there was no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Investors' are focused on the US-Chinese trade negotiations, as well as the Brexit deal. This week, the second round of negotiations will take place in Washington, and investors are still hoping for a favorable outcome. The situation around Brexit is somewhat more complicated. Given the reluctance of the parties to make additional compromises, and the limited time to resolve these issues, the chances of a "tough" Brexit are very high.

GBP/USD

The British pound returns to decline during the Asian session, after updating local highs yesterday. Investors are extremely concerned about the prospects for Brexit and fear the worst scenario. The week, the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the heads of particular EU countries will be held. May will try again to make changes to the final agreement regarding the Irish border, despite the fact that the EU has previously stated a tough position on this issue. On February 19, investors expect the publication of a block of statistics on the labor market. In particular, analysts expect some increase in average wages in December from 3.3% 3MoY to 3.4% 3MoY. The unemployment rate in December should remain at 4%.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading in a downtrend against the US one, declining as the market becomes saturated with the news. USD is in demand amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for trade negotiations with China, which inspire hope that an agreement will be reached before the scheduled deadline on March 1. Published today, the minutes of the RBA meeting on February 5 meeting did not provide any support to the instrument. The regulator noted an improvement in the labor market but also pointed to a sharp increase in external risks in the past few months. By the end of 2019, the RBA expects the economy to grow by about 3%; later, the GDP dynamics may slow down to an average of 2.75% by mid-2020.

USD/JPY

On Monday, the US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen and shows ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session on February 19. There are quite a few new growth drivers on the market, so investors rely on previous signals. In particular, the dollar is supported by good prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China. In turn, the pressure comes from internal political conflicts and the soft position on the Fed, which took a pause in the interest rate increase cycle. Trading activity will begin to grow by Wednesday when Japan publishes January import and export data, and the FOMC meeting minutes would be released in the US.

Oil

Oil prices continue to trade in an upward trend, updating local highs amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for further reductions in oil production among OPEC countries. Earlier, Russia and Saudi Arabia declared a possibility to reduce production volumes substantially more than was expected by the cartel agreement signed earlier. The quotes are also supported by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. In turn, concerns about the slowdown in China’s economy serve as a strong deterrent. The growth of drilling activity in the US also continues to have a negative impact on prices.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency is trading in an upward trend against the US dollar, updating local highs since February 7. On February 19, the euro managed to show good growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. In particular, investors have reacted negatively to Italian data on industrial orders and production. In December, the volume of orders decreased by 1.8% MoM with a decrease in sales dynamics by 3.5% MoM (significantly below than analysts' forecasts). The US currency is still vulnerable, as the market is waiting for the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. However, since President Donald Trump yesterday announced his readiness to give an additional 60 days to negotiate, this process can be fairly long.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a sharp rise against the US dollar on Tuesday, marking a new local maximum since February 4. The pound was strongly supported by data from the labor market, which inspired confidence in the stability of the economy in front of Brexit. The average salary (with premiums) in December increased by 3,4% 3MoY, which coincided with the data of last month and is the most powerful positive dynamics over the past 10 years. Still, analysts expected a slightly stronger growth (3.5% 3MoY). In December, The number employed increased by 167K, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of 140K. The employment rate was the best since the beginning of 2018. Today, investors are focused on the meeting of British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the Asian session on February 20, being close to its two-week highs. Investors play the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Australia, but these data do not provide any significant support to the instrument. Thus, the Westpac index of leading economic indicators in January showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.3% MoM in December. The level of wages for 4Q2018 showed an increase of 0.5% QoQ and 2.3% YoY, which was slightly worse than analysts' forecasts (0.6% QoQ and 2.3% YoY). It is likely that the trading will be rather sluggish today, as investors await the publication of the January report on the Australian labor market on Thursday.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows moderate growth against the Japanese currency, gradually recovering to local highs of February 14. During the Asian session, the yen is pressured by weak data on the dynamics of imports and exports from Japan. In January, imports declined by 0.6% YoY after rising by 1.9% YoY in December. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.8% YoY. Exports for the same period collapsed by 8.4% YoY after falling by 3.9% YoY last month. Experts were expecting a decline of 5.5% YoY. Due to the strong discrepancies in the dynamics of imports and exports, the total trade balance in January reached a mark of -1415.2 billion Japanese yen, which is significantly worse than analysts' forecasts of -1011.0 billion.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating after updating local highs at the beginning of this week. The dynamics of the instrument is largely due to technical factors, as investors continue to monitor the situation with the US-China trade negotiations. Despite the steady decline in production by OPEC countries, the market is concerned about a possible decline in demand, especially from China. On Wednesday, investors await the publication of the API report on oil reserves by February 15. The last report reflected a reduction of 0.998 million barrels.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from local highs of February 6. The reason for the depreciation was the strengthening of USD amid a rather optimistic process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. The minutes of the last Fed meeting also had a noticeable effect. On February 21, the round of talks should end with a summit meeting, after which it will become clear whether additional time is needed, or the parties will be able to find a compromise before the current deadline of March 1. On Thursday, investors are focused on European statistics on the dynamics of business activity. The composite Markit Manufacturing PMI may increase in February from 51.0 to 51.1 points.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound has corrected against the US dollar and is again trying to grow during the Asian session on February 21. Investors are playing out ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States and are following the outcome of the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, which took place yesterday. Despite the optimistic tone of the final communiqué, analysts are still afraid of delaying the process, as the postponement of the Brexit deadlines does not seem to be impossible. Anyway, the document reflected the consent of the parties to further work aimed at finding opportunities for the most comfortable implementation of Brexit process for all participants. Both parties also confirmed once again that they would not accept the appearance of a “hard border” on the island of Ireland.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth during the Asian session on February 21, responding to the appearance of a strong report on the labor market. At the same time, investors very quickly lost their “bullish” sentiments, which led to a correction of the instrument to the opening levels. According to the report, in January, employment rose by 39.1K jobs after rising by 21.6K last month. Analysts expected a much more modest growth of 15.0K. The share of the employed population increased slightly and amounted to 65.7% in January, with an expected level of 65.6%. The unemployment remained unchanged at 5%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local highs since February 14. During the Asian session on February 21, the instrument is trading in both directions due to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the expectation of new drivers in the market. Nikkei manufacturing sector activity index in February showed a decline from 50.3 to 48.5 points, breaking down the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since September 2016. With the opening of the American session, the publication of similar indicators is expected in the United States.

Oil

Oil prices resumed growth after some consolidation, receiving support from increased optimism about the US-China negotiation process. On Thursday, there should be a final meeting, which may mark the parties reaching a compromise. Otherwise, Trump's administration will probably try to push the March deadline, as previously noted in the president's speeches. A certain pressure on the quotes was exerted by the yesterday report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected the growth of stocks as of February 15 by 1.260 million barrels (after a decrease of 0.998 million over the previous period). On Thursday, investors are awaiting the publication of the report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar. Investors are focused on European business activity statistics and published minutes of the ECB meeting held on January 24th. in February, the Composite Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed an increase from 51.0 to 51.4 points, above the analysts' expectations of 51.1 points. Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 50.5 to 49.2 points while the forecast was 50.3 points. Germany made a significant contribution to the weakening of the index. In February, the German index fell from 49.7 to 47.6 points, once again recalling the problems in the country's economy. The published ECB protocols also were ambiguous: on the one hand, the regulator is preparing measures for additional support of banks; on the other, it is seriously considering the possibility of raising the interest rate in early autumn. On February 22, investors expect the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi.

GBP/USD

The British pound is being corrected against the US dollar after active growth at the beginning of the week. The market is still focused on the Brexit negotiations, but since the Tuesday meeting of Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, there were no new drivers on the market. The US macroeconomic statistics published lately does not dive appreciable support to USD. The data released on Thursday reflected a decline in Manufacturing PMI from 54.9 to 53.7 points, while the forecast was 54.7 points. The data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market was an additional disappointment. In January, the index fell by 1.2% MoM after a sharp decline by 4.0% MoM last month. Experts expected to see a positive trend of +0.8% MoM.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar dropped significantly against the US dollar on Thursday, offsetting all growth results over the week. At the beginning of the Asian session, AUD was trading positively, receiving support from the strong report on the Australian labor market. However, the growth was short-lived, and after a few hours, investors began to fix their profits, pushing quotes down. In part, this happened due to the updated Westpac forecasts. But the main factor of the decline was the ban on imports of Australian coal for an indefinite period in the northern Chinese port of Dalian. Experts call the potential losses of the economy from the ban on imports very serious since Australia exported to China about 22% of all coal mined in 2018.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is correcting against the Japanese yen, retreating from local highs, updated in the middle of the week. The "bearish" dynamics is promoted by not so strong macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as by the general decline in risk investors. The market still fears that the negotiations between the United States and the PRC on a trade dispute may end in failure, which will lead to new aggravations from March 1. However, yesterday it was reported that countries are preparing six memorandums on major issues affecting the topics of forced technology transfer, the cybercrime, and others.

Oil

Oil prices are again prone to decline and retreat from the local highs of the beginning of the year. At the end of the week, the reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics, in addition to a number of technical factors, was published data on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy and growing concerns about the slowdown of the global economy. The report of the Ministry reflected the growth of oil reserves as of February 15 by 3.672 million barrels after an increase of 3.633 million over the previous period. Real growth turned out to be stronger than analysts' forecasts (3.080 million barrels). The position of OPEC countries, which confidently reduce production volumes, as well as US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, are currently hindering a more confident decline. On Friday, the market is waiting for the data about the number of active platforms in the US by Baker Hughes

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar, remaining close to the local highs, updated in the middle of last week. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe, published on Friday, failed to support the euro, so investors retained their correction attitude. Investors were focused on data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in January, as well as on statistics from Germany, which recently shows a weakening of economic growth. The Eurozone consumer price index in January fell by 1.0% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of 1.1% MoM. German statistics reflected the preservation of the previous GDP growth rates in 4Q2018: by 0.0% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. Investors were disappointed by the Ifo business data. The February index of business optimism fell from 99.3 to 98.5 points, below the market expectations of 99.0 points. The index of economic expectations for the same period fell from 94.2 to 93.8 points, with a constant forecast.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading in different directions, being close to local maxima, updated on February 20. Moods in the market remain extremely changeable, as investors await the resolution of the Brexit issue. There's little more than a month until the UK should leave the EU, and there is still no noticeable progress in the negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and Brussels. May’s failure to negotiate only heightens internal tensions in the Parliament, which can adversely affect later. However, May's team is still optimistic. She intends to return to Brussels again on Tuesday, which will shift the date of the next voting in the Parliament by March 12. On February 25, investors will follow the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar is trading within an uptrend against the US one. The instrument is moderately supported by corrective sentiment on the US dollar since investors have no intention to open new positions before the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Earlier, Trump has already met with the leader of the PRC and noted the productivity of the negotiations, which has improved market sentiment. Also, the market is waiting for Trump to meet with DPRK leader Kim Jong-un. The main issue of the meeting is the further denuclearization of North Korea.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to trade against the yen without a clear trend, playing out the contradictory news. The Japanese currency is in demand due to low investor interest in risk, while the dollar is awaiting resolution of the US-China trade dispute. Moderate support for USD is provided by the further growth of US government bonds, but the macroeconomic background remains generally ambiguous. On Monday, investors expect the publication of the Chicago Fed national activity index and Manufacturing business index from the Dallas Fed. In Japan, December statistics on leading and coincident indices will be released.

Oil

Oil prices once again demonstrate a tendency to grow, but market activity remains low. The main support factors for quotes remain hopes for a resolution of the US-China trade conflict and the continued decline in oil supplies from OPEC. On Friday, additional support for quotes was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. For the week of January 18, the number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased from 857 to 853 units, which was the third decline in a row. Despite the reduction, the overall crude oil production in the United States continues to grow. Last week, the US Department of Energy reported an increase in production to 12 million barrels per day, which is a new recor

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

At the beginning of the week, the euro showed growth against the US dollar returning to the local maxima of February 6. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics was the general growth of optimism in the market after US President Donald Trump announced the postponement of the introduction of new duties on Chinese goods on March 1. Trump explained his decision with notable progress in the negotiations, and also declared his readiness to meet again with PRC leader Xi Jinping. The upward trend is also supported by the expectation of a large two-day speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress with the regular semi-annual monetary policy report. Powell's speech may clarify the planned timing of reducing the balance of the Fed, as well as the resumption of the policy of gradual rate increases. On February 26, investors are also waiting for a speech of the ECB representative Yves Mersch.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed strong growth on Monday, updating local highs of February 20. Active "bullish" dynamics is also observed during the Asian session today, which brings the pound to the highest levels since January 31. The instrument was supported by Donald Trump’s intention to postpone the deadline for concluding a trade agreement with China. The market confidence in the deal has noticeably increased, so the risk appetite has also increased. In addition, investors are optimistic about the news that the European Union is considering the possibility of postponing the Brexit date for another 21 months. This will adversely affect the internal political situation in the UK and may undermine the confidence in Teresa May in Parliament, but it will help develop a more detailed plan, which ultimately will avoid the "tough" Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose against the US one on Monday but returned to ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session today. Progress in the US-China trade negotiations provided some support for the instrument, but very quickly investor sentiment began to deteriorate, and they returned to profit taking. The growth of AUD was largely caused by the non-confirmation of the fact that China introduced any bans on the import of Australian coal. According to updated data, delays in the trading ports of China were caused only by legal problems after the adjustment of the legislation.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local highs of December 27. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by a noticeable decrease in investors' interest in "safe haven" currencies after Donald Trump announced the postponement of the introduction of new import duties on Chinese goods. Additional pressure on the yen on Monday was caused by published data from Japan. Thus, the index of leading indicators in December fell from 97.9 to 97.5 points, with a constant forecast. The index of coincident indicators dropped from 102.3 to 101.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices declined significantly on February 25, responding to Donald Trump’s statements regarding OPEC. The US president noted that prices are gradually becoming "too high" and urged the cartel to "calm down". This is not the first accusation of OPEC by Trump, while the US continues to steadily increase its own production volumes, reaching new record levels. In addition to the efforts of OPEC, the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela also contribute to higher prices. Also, according to the latest data, the largest Lybian oil field, El Sharara, is still closed due to the presence of militants.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR against USD rose steadily, renewing local highs since February 6. The macroeconomic background remains controversial. Investors are focused on the protracted Brexit negotiation process and fear that the UK release date will still be rescheduled. Yesterday’s speech of the ECB representative Yves Mersch also did not have a significant impact on EUR position. Mersch confirmed that the regulator, as before, intends to promote its own instant payment system TIPS, which allows Europeans and legal entities to make instant transfers regardless of the mode of operation of their local banks.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD rose significantly, renewing its record highs since September 20, 2018. Such a significant increase was due to the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which gave the British parliament the right to postpone Brexit if the necessary changes to the final agreement are not made. Until March 12, which is scheduled for the next parliamentary vote, May will try to hold a series of meetings with European Commission and to achieve a solution to controversial issues on the Irish border. In case of failure, on March 13, a vote to leave the country according to a “hard” scenario will be held. If the parliamentarians will again be against it, then on March 14, there will be the third vote for the postponement of the final UK exit from the EU.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, AUD is slightly rising, trading around weekly highs with moderate support from poor US dollar positions. In addition, investors expect a positive resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic background of Australia remains ambiguous. Wednesday’s 2018 Q4 Construction Work Done release declined by 3.1% QoQ after a decline by 2.8% QoQ in the previous period. Investors were counting on a positive trend of +0.4% QoQ.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD fell against the JPY, departing from local highs, renewed at the beginning of the week. The emergence of negative dynamics on the dollar was due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, December Housing Starts index decreased from 1.214 million to 1.078 million houses, which was significantly lower than analysts' forecasts of 1.250 million. In percentage terms, the decline was more than 11%. At the same time, the December housing price index from S&P/CaseShiller increased by 4.2% YoY, slowing down against the previous +4.6% YoY. Analysts predicted a growth rate of +4.5% YoY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed their growth and rebounded slightly after a significant decline the day before, caused by Donald Trump's appeal to OPEC, in which he asked not to hurry with price increases. Growth was due to API the report on energy reserves, reflecting a sharp decline in stocks by 4.20 million barrels by February 22. Last time, the figure increased by 1.26 million barrels. In turn, the risks of resuming the operation of El-Sharara, the largest oil field in Libya, prevented further strengthening.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro is consolidating against the US dollar, remaining close to its local highs, updated on February 27. Yesterday, EUR showed a decline in view of the generally negative mood of investors. However, macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone turned out to be quite good. The services sentiment index in February rose from 11.0 to 12.1 points, which turned out to be above market expectations. The business climate indicator for the same period remained at 0.69 points, against the forecasts of a decline to 0.60 points. The updated comments of the European Commission were also positive, although investors left them without proper attention. The analysis revealed that the level of employment continues to be at record levels, while unemployment rates are steadily declining. The EC called on the countries to increase investment activity and implement the necessary budgetary reforms.

GBP/USD

The British pound once again showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating record highs of July 9. The pound continues to be supported by improved prospects for Brexit after British Prime Minister Theresa May promised the voting on the extension of the country's withdrawal from the EU if the parliament won't approve withdrawal without a deal. However, the postponement may have a number of negative aspects related primarily to the growth of political tensions within the country. However, in the situation of the current impasse, such a scenario is perhaps more preferable. It is not excluded that, in the case of postponement, a second referendum may be held, following which the country may not leave the EU.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell remarkably against the US dollar on February 27, partially offsetting the results of the moderate growth at the beginning of the week. Some pressure was exerted on the instrument by weak macroeconomic indicators from Australia. The volume of completed construction in 4Q2018 collapsed by 3.1% QoQ after declining by 2.8% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts expected positive trends of 0.4% QoQ. Today, the pair is trading again in an upward trend, ignoring weak statistics from China. Australian data, in turn, provide moderate support. The volume of private capital expenditures for 4Q2018 increased by 2.0% QoQ after zero growth last quarter. Analysts expected a growth rate of 0.5% QoQ. Private sector lending in January remained at 0.2% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be somewhat worse than market expectations.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on February 27, recovering fully from a decline on Tuesday. The US currency was supported by good data from the US on the dynamics of unfinished housing sales, as well as a number of positive comments from the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress. In January, the number of sales increased by 4.6% MoM after declining by 2.3% MoM in December. Investors predicted a growth of 0.4% MoM. During the Asian session today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are playing on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. According to preliminary estimates, industrial production in January decreased by 3.7% MoM after declining by 0.1% MoM in December. Investors counted on -2.5% MoM. Retail sales in January showed a decline of 2.3% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 1.3% to 0.6%.

Oil

Oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday and reached the same local highs, updated at the beginning of the week. Quotes were strongly supported by the report of the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of oil reserves. According to the report, as of February 18, oil and petroleum products in US warehouses decreased by 8.647 million barrels, after rising by 3.672 million over the previous period. Analysts expected growth of 2.842 million barrels. In addition, investors were optimistic about the statements of Saudi Minister of Energy Khalid Al-Falih, who, commenting on the recent tweet of US President Donald Trump, noted that OPEC is primarily interested in the stability of the market.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar. In the first half of the day, EUR was trading in an upward trend and managed to update local highs since February 5. With the opening of the European session, quotes went down actively, which was a market reaction to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and a sharp deterioration in the prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Yesterday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that the differences are still very serious and promises and positive intentions are not enough for their resolution. It also became known that the negotiations between the United States and the DPRK also ended in vain, which only increased the overall level of uncertainty.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar, departing from its local highs, updated on Wednesday. The overall decline in investor sentiment contributed to a decrease in the instrument. In particular, the market negatively met the news about the failure of the US-DPRK negotiations since, as many analysts believe, this could be an additional negative signal for the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. The pound is also pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Published yesterday, the consumer confidence indicator showed a slight increase in February from -14 to -13 points, still reflecting the predominance of negative sentiment among British consumers. On March 1, investors will focus on the statistics on consumer lending and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a downward trend against the US one, retreating to the last week lows. The instrument is pressured by deteriorating prospects for resolving the US-China trade dispute after the US trade representative once again highlighted the seriousness of the existing differences. Published yesterday, the statistics from the United States also contributed to the development of "bearish" dynamics in the instrument. According to preliminary estimates, the US GDP in 4Q2018 grew by 2.6% YoY after rising by 3.4% YoY in Q3. Despite a significant slowdown in economic growth, the figure was still significantly above the forecasts of 2.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is noticeably strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs since December 20. The reason for the "bullish" dynamics is ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan, as well as the continuing uncertainty of the US-China trade negotiations. Statistics released on Friday showed a rise in the consumer price index in the Tokyo region in February by 0.6% YoY, after the growth of 0.4% YoY last month. The consumer inflation excluding fresh food rose by 1.1% YoY in February, which coincided with January data. At the same time, the January unemployment rate unexpectedly strengthened from 2.4% to 2.5%. In turn, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in February showed steady growth from 48.5 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts. However, the figure is still below the psychological level of 50 points.

Oil

On Thursday, oil prices consolidated after moderate growth the day before, which was triggered by a sharp decline in stocks of petroleum products in the US warehouses. The development of corrective sentiment was caused by the weak macroeconomic indicators from China, which once again reminded the market of the risks of slowing global economy. The instrument is also pressured by continued tensions between the United States and China. On March 1, investors are awaiting the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. The last reports have indicated a reduction in their number, which, however, does not prevent the United States from increasing production rates to record levels.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency ended the week ambiguously, correcting from local highs of February 5, updated on Thursday. On Friday, a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the USA was published. However, most of the data turned out to be below analysts' expectations, so there were no particular records. According to preliminary estimates, the core consumer price index in the Eurozone in February slowed from 1.1% YoY to 1.0% YoY. The consumer price index for the same period expectedly to accelerated from 1.4 to 1.5% YoY, which is still significantly below the target level of the ECB. Slightly pleasing were data on unemployment, which remained unchanged at 7.8% in January, and the Manufacturing PMI, which showed a decline from 50.5 to 49.3 points (0.1 points above the market expectations). On March 4, the euro is trading in a downward direction. Investors play on Friday statistics and expect the appearance of new drivers. On Monday, the March Sentix indicator of the Eurozone investor confidence is to be released, as well as February statistics on the manufacturers' price index.

GBP/USD

The pound fell markedly against the US dollar on Friday, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed the day before. Technical factors contributed to the development of the "bearish" dynamics, while the published macroeconomic statistics from the UK turned out to be ambiguous. Investors welcomed the increase in consumer lending in January from 0.683 billion to 1.095 billion pounds, which significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts of 0.800 billion. The number of approved mortgage applications in January also increased from 64.468 to 66.766K. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 63.400K. American statistics, published on Friday, was very weak. Only data on personal income in December was positive (1.0% MoM against the previous 0.3% MoM), while the rest of the figures were significantly worse than experts' forecasts. The ISM Manufacturing index in February fell from 56.6 to 54.2 points, while the forecast was 55.5 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar ended the past week with a confident decline, which led to an update of the local minima of February 12. On March 1, a downward trend was still observed, despite the publication of a large block of weak statistics from the United States. However, in the first half of the day, the Australian dollar was trading in an upward channel, helped by strong data from Australia and China. Thus, the RBA raw materials prices index in February showed a steady growth of 9.1% YoY after rising 6.5% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 7.4% YoY. Chinese data reflected a steady growth in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI. In February, the figure rose from 48.3 to 49.9 points, while experts predicted 48.5 points. On March 4, the pair is also trading in downwards, despite the positive gap at the opening. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by published data on the dynamics of building permits. In January, the figure rose by 2.5% MoM after falling by 8.4% MoM in the previous month. In annual terms, the growth was an impressive 28.6% after a decline of 22.5% YoY last month. At the same time, traders reacted negatively to a slowdown in the growth of profits from the main activities of Australian companies. In 4Q2018, profits rose only by 0.8% QoQ after rising by 1.9% QoQ and expected dynamics of 3.0% QoQ.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local highs of December 20. Macroeconomic statistics published on March 1 turned out to be ambiguous, however, investors trusted the dollar more, and interest in risk practically did not decline. The Japanese data indicated a moderate increase in the consumer price index in the Tokyo region, but also signaled a decrease in the consumer confidence index in February from 41.9 to 41.5 points, while the forecast was 41.6 points. The Manufacturing PMI in February rose from 48.3 to 49.9 points, which was significantly better than the forecast of 48.5 points.

Oil

Oil prices dropped markedly on March 1, retreating to local minima of February 26. The decline was due to continued growth in US production, as well as increased risks of global economic growth, which directly affects demand. OPEC’s efforts to reduce production, and new US sanctions against Venezuela, which is also a member of OPEC, are hindering a more confident decline in prices. Additional support on Friday was provided by the Baker Hughes report, which again indicated a reduction in active drilling rigs from 853 to 843 units per week.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Monday, the European currency showed a significant decline against the US dollar, returning to local minima of February 19. The reason for the strengthening of the negative dynamics was the news that the US and China are close to concluding a trade agreement after China offered to remove part of its import duties. The final agreement may be signed at the end of March at a special summit. On Monday, moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone hampered a more confident decline in the euro. Sentix indicator of investor confidence in March rose from -3.7 to -2.2 points with a forecast of -3.1 points. In February, the producer price index rose by 0.4% MoM and by 3.0% YoY after falling by 0.8% MoM and rising by 3.0% YoY last month. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States, January data on retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as a monthly report on the state of the US budget for January.

GBP/USD

The British pound began a new week with an active decline, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week. The negative dynamics of the instrument was due to the strengthening of the US currency against the background of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict in late March. In turn, the pound was weakened by the macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Monday. Construction PMI in the UK in February fell from 50.6 to 49.5 points, with a forecast of 50.3 points. The index dropped below the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since April 2018. Today, the pound is also trading in a downtrend. Investors have reacted negatively to the publication of the report on retail sales in the UK. In February, the BRC index showed a decline of 0.1% YoY after rising by 1.8% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.1% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows a bearish trend, trading near local minima since February 12. Despite a number of good publications from Australia, investors have little interest in buying AUD, especially in view of improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade conflict. Moderate support for the Australian currency on Tuesday is provided by data on the activity index in the service sector, which rose in February from 44.3 to 44.5 points, as well as the trade balance deficit, which fell in Q4 from 10.8 billion to 7.2 billion Australian dollars. The focus of the Asian session is the RBA interest rate decision with the publication of related comments. As expected, the regulator left the rate at 1.5%, noting that current policies continue to support the Australian economy. RBA also kept the previous forecasts. By the end of the year, the Australian economy is expected to grow by 3%. The level of consumer inflation in the current year will be slightly below the target level of 2% and will be able to overcome it only by 2020.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, trading near local highs updated on March 1. Investors are optimistic about the progress in the US-China trade negotiations and are awaiting the signing of final documents at the end of March. Against this background, there is a growing interest in risk in the market, which, of course, does not contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. In turn, on Tuesday, the published Markit Services PMI supports the yen. In February, the figure rose from 51.6 to 52.3 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of an increase to 52.1 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth at the beginning of the week, receiving support from the continued decline in production from OPEC, as well as positive comments on the US-China trade negotiations. It became known that China is ready to start a number of structural economic reforms, as well as to cancel the response import tariffs for a number of American goods. The data on the dynamics of active drilling rigs in the USA last week, which fell to the lowest level in the last 9 months, provide moderate support to oil. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of February 25.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency continues to develop a downtrend against the US dollar, having updated local minima of February 19. Analysts still note a decline in demand for risk amid concerns about global economic growth. Yesterday, the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, speaking at the annual parliamentary meeting, noted that for the country's economy there are serious risks. The GDP forecast for 2019 was reduced from the previous 6.6% to 6-6.5%. At the same time, the government announced a tax cut, as well as an increase in investment in infrastructure. In turn, support for the euro on Tuesday was provided by strong macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Markit Services PMI in February increased from 51.2 to 52.8 points with a forecast of growth to only 52.3 points. The similar indicator for the manufacturing sector rose from 51.0 to 51.9 points, which also turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.4 points. Retail sales in January increased by 1.3% MoM and by 2.2% YoY, with analysts' forecasts of 1.2% MoM and 1.9% YoY.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday, ending the day with almost zero results but updating the local minima of February 26. Moderate support for the pound was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, the Markit Services PMI in February rose from 50.1 to 51.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 49.9 points. At the same time, investors were cautious about the publication of the report of the Committee on Financial Policy, which reflected the increased risks for the British economy. The report also noted that the country's financial institutions are preparing for the toughest scenario of Brexit. During the Asian session on March 6, the pound again shows a negative trend. On Wednesday, investors will be focused on presentations by representatives of the Bank of England, Jon Cunliffe and Michael Saunders.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is showing a steady downward trend during the Asian session on March 6, updating local lows of January 4. The reason for the emergence of "bearish" dynamics was the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. In 4Q2018, GDP grew by 0.2% QoQ and 2.3% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 0.3% QoQ and 2.5% YoY. In Q3, the Australian economy grew by 0.3% QoQ and 2.8% YoY. The speech of the RBA head Philip Lowe, which took place a little earlier than the publication on GDP, did not have a significant impact on the Australian currency since it was mostly devoted to the situation in the housing and construction markets. On Thursday, investors are awaiting the publication of Australian statistics on retail sales, as well as on the dynamics of imports and exports in January.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local highs of December 20. The dollar was supported by good macroeconomic statistics. ISM services PMI in February rose from 56.7 to 59.7 points, while the growth forecast was only 57.3 points. The similar indicator from Markit in February rose from 54.2 to 56.0 points, slightly worse than the forecast of 56.2 points. The IBD/TIPP index of economic optimism in March rose from 50.3 to 55.7 points, against the expectations of growth to 51.2 points. Sales of new houses in the USA in December increased by 3.7% MoM after rising by 9.1% MoM last month. Experts expected to see a negative trend of -8.7% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices have changed little on March 5, as market sentiment temporarily ended up in equilibrium. Quotes are supported by OPEC efforts to limit the supply. Earlier, it became known that Russia will try to accelerate the reduction of oil production in March, as reported by Energy Minister Alexander Novak. In turn, pressure factors are growing US output and fears of a slowdown in the global economy. Published yesterday, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves also contributed to the development of negative dynamics. As of February 25, oil reserves rose by 7.29 million barrels, after a decrease of 4.20 million barrels in the previous period.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency is consolidating against the US dollar after a steady decline at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of February 19. On Wednesday, the euro was supported by technical correction factors, as well as by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The ADP Employment Change showed growth by 183K in February after rising by 300K in January (however, the forecast was 189K). The US trade balance deficit increased in December and reached USD -59.8 billion, while analysts counted on USD -57.9 billion. Last month, the deficit was just over USD -50 billion. During the Asian session today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors are waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. The focus is on statistics for the Eurozone's GDP for 4Q2018, as well as the ECB decision on the interest rate with the accompanying press conference.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows an ambiguous trend against the US dollar, trying to reverse up after a steady decline, dropping the instrument to its lows of February 26. Uncertain prospects around Brexit continue to pressure the pound, while corrective moods are largely related to the technical factors. Also, investors reacted negatively to the publication of a weak ADP report on employment in the US, suggesting that Friday statistics on the US labor market may be worse than expected. There's no progress on Brexit negotiations. EU negotiator Michel Barnier reported yesterday the "constructive atmosphere", but it does not lead to any decisions.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar develops a slight increase during the Asian session, correcting after a significant decline yesterday. On Wednesday, the Australian currency was pressured by disappointing data on Australian GDP. The growth of the Australian economy slowed from the previous 2.8% YoY to 2.3% YoY, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 2.5% YoY. Today, the "Australian" is supported by new statistics, in addition to technical factors. The AiG Construction PMI in February rose from 43.1 to 43.8 points. Retail sales rose 0.1% MoM in January, after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. The trade surplus in January rose sharply from 3.7 billion to 4.5 billion Australian dollars, while analysts expected it to decline to 3 billion. The reason for such rapid growth was the steady increase in exports in January by 5.0% after a decline of 1.2% in December.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is correcting against the Japanese currency, retreating from the updated local maximums of December 20. The development of the “bearish” dynamics of the instrument is largely supported by the corrective sentiment on the dollar amid the publication of not very impressive statistics. In addition, the market expects progress in the US-China trade negotiations, which are close to concluding a final deal. On Wednesday, a certain pressure on the yen was made by the representative of the Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada, who complained about the growing external risks and urged the regulator to additional policy easing if inflation does not reach the target level of 2%. Investors are preparing for Friday when there will be a large amount of interesting macroeconomic releases. In particular, Japan will publish annual GDP data for 4Q2018, the changes in wages, and household spending in January.

Oil

Oil prices continue to show ambiguous dynamics, remaining close to the highs of the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the instrument was pressured by published forecasts from major producers in the United States, reflecting the increase in the dynamics of shale oil. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the report of the US Department of Energy, which confirmed the dynamics of the previously published ADP report, and reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves on February 25 at 7.069 million barrels after declining by 8.647 million barrels over the past reporting week. The overall rate of oil production in the United States remained unchanged at 12.100 million barrels per day.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed correctional growth against the US dollar on Friday, retreating from local minima, updated the day before. At the end of last week, EUR was pressured by the ECB's revised forecasts for GDP and inflation in the Eurozone. In addition, the regulator announced the launch of the TILRO assistance program for credit institutions in September. There are no talks about raising the ECB rate, but if analysts had previously considered the end of the summer of 2019 as one of the possible options, now no action of tightening monetary policy is expected until the end of the year. On Monday, the euro is trading in both directions, and investors are expecting new drivers. The focus will be on statistics on industrial production and exports/imports in Germany in January. The USA will publish data on retail sales for the same period.

GBP/USD

The British pound remains under pressure and continues to develop a negative trend against the US dollar. There's almost no time left for the UK to make any changes to the agreement with the EU before the meeting of Parliament on March 12. If the parliamentarians reject the next version of the agreement, on March 13, a vote will be held to exit according to the "tough" scenario. If this vote ends in rejection, the Parliament will vote to postpone Brexit. Meanwhile, the domestic political situation in the UK is worsening now. According to British media reports, Theresa May is rapidly losing support among the cabinet ministers, and at present, she is supported by only two members of the government.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading in both directions, trying to correct after a decline last week. It is moderately supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States published last Friday. The number of new jobs created by the American economy in February decreased from the previous 311K to 20K, while investors were expecting 180K. The average working week in February decreased from 34.5 to 34.4 hours. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February fell more strongly than forecasts, from 4.0% to 3.8%, and the average hourly wage in February rose by 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY with forecasts of 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has stopped its decline against the Japanese yen and is trying to develop upward correctional dynamics. The ambiguous report on the US labor market, published on March 8, exerted only short-term pressure on the dollar, while investors are still optimistic about risk. In turn, the yen still receives support from Friday statistics from Japan. Investors were pleasantly surprised by the Japanese GDP for 4Q2018: it amounted to 1.9% YoY versus the previous 1.4% YoY, and household spending dynamics is growing steadily.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Friday, having managed to update local lows of February 14. The reason for the strengthening of the "bearish" sentiment was the disappointing US report on employment, which again reinforced concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth. The pressure was also exerted by weak indicators from China, where exports in February fell by a record 20.7% YoY, which led to a sharp reduction in the trade surplus by almost 10 times. By the end of the Friday trading session, the instrument was able to play back most of its positions, supported by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. For the week of March 8, the number of active drilling rigs decreased from 843 to 834 units, which is the third decline in a row.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro started a new week with moderate growth against the US dollar, continuing to regain last week's losses when the market reacted to a significant reduction in the ECB's economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2019. The macroeconomic background from Europe remains ambiguous. On March 11, investors were disappointed with the publication of German statistics. Industrial output in January decreased by 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.4% MoM. YoY, the index slowed down from -2.7% to -3.3%. Exports in January showed zero dynamics after a growth of 1.5% MoM in December. In contrast, imports accelerated from 0.7% MoM to 1.5% MoM. This led to a decrease in the trade surplus from EUR 19.9 billion to EUR 18.5 billion.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a sharp increase on Monday, amid news that Prime Minister Theresa May managed to agree with the European Commission on a number of amendments to the Brexit deal. In particular, May managed to settle differences on the Ireland border issue. The European Union will abandon the previously announced protective mechanism to ensure a free border on the island, and the parties will have to work out a final solution in 2020. The pound was also growing during the Asian session today, but now the “bullish” activity on the instrument has noticeably decreased. On Tuesday, investors are awaiting a vote in the British Parliament on an updated Brexit agreement. If the parliamentarians reject the agreement, on March 13 a vote will be held on withdrawal without an agreement. On March 14, there may be a vote for the postponement of Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on March 11, retreating even further from the local lows updated late last week. The growth of the instrument was largely technical since there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics. In turn, US data provided moderate support for USD. In January, retail sales rose by 2.0% MoM after a decrease of 1.6% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. Today the instrument is stable and is trading near the opening levels. A certain pressure on AUD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Mortgage loans issued in January decreased by 2.6% MoM after rising by 6.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 1.0% MoM. The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index in February fell from 4 to 2 points, which was worse than analysts' forecasts. The index of conditions for the same period decreased from 7 to 4 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, gradually recovering from a decline last week. The macroeconomic background remains favorable for the US currency, which determines the recovery of "bullish" sentiment. In turn, the yen lacks support amid sufficiently high investor interest in risk. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the US consumer inflation statistics for February. Analysts do not expect significant changes in the dynamics of growth of CPIs, which, in general, may further strengthen USD.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on March 11, responding to Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih optimistic statements that corrections to the current OPEC agreement are unlikely until June when the next meeting of the cartel will take place. Quotes are also supported by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms published last week, reflecting a steady decline in the number of drilling rigs. However, it still has little effect on the rate of oil production in the United States, remaining at record levels. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 4.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose markedly against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of March 7. Growth was happening in view of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics on consumer price dynamics from the United States. In addition, investors are still evaluating the report on the US labor market published at the end of last week. By the close of the day's session, EUR showed a correctional dynamics, which was a market reaction to the results of the British parliamentary vote on Brexit. As expected, despite Theresa May’s efforts and some concessions on the Irish border, parliamentarians rejected the agreement. Now, the country is waiting for a vote to leave the EU without the deal. If it fails (and the likelihood of this is extremely high), on March 14, Parliament will vote to postpone Brexit. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting publication of January statistics on industrial output in the Eurozone. Also, the market will be interested in speeches of the ECB representatives Yves Mersch and Benoit Coeuré.

GBP/USD

The pound fell sharply on Tuesday, departing from local highs of 28 February. The reason for the return of active sales were the results of voting in the UK Parliament on the country's withdrawal from the EU. There were 391 votes "against", while only 242 voted "for". The parliamentarians did not appreciate the efforts of Theresa May, which led to the fact that Brussels made some amendments to the agreement on the Irish border. On March 13, there will be another vote, about the withdrawal from the EU without the deal. This initiative is expected to also fail to be approved since it seems that parliamentarians are determined to keep the UK within the EU. On Tuesday, macroeconomic statistics from the UK provided some support for the pound. In January, GDP increased by 0.5% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM in December. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.2% MoM. Industrial output in January rose by 0.6% MoM after falling by 0.5% MoM last month.

AUD/USD

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar ended with moderate growth, which led to the update of the local maxima of March 6. Today, AUD is trading down, which is facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in March showed a decline of 4.8% MoM after rising by 4.3% MoM last month. The instrument is still pressured by the publication of statistics on mortgage lending and Business Confidence/Conditions indices on Tuesday.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is trading in both directions with the Japanese yen, playing out an ambiguous macroeconomic background and lasting uncertainty in the market. The pressure on the dollar on Tuesday was caused by weak macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. The Consumer Price Index in February rose by 1.5% YoY. In January, the prices increase was 1.6% YoY. The index excluding food and energy slowed from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM. YoY, prices rose by 2.1% after growing by 2.2% last month. Today, the yen is pressured by data from Japan. The demand for machine-building products in January fell sharply by 5.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, while analysts expected a decline of 1.7% MoM and 2.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by optimistic statements from Saudi Arabia, which regularly fulfills its obligations under the OPEC agreement and is trying to accelerate the process of reducing exports. Additional support is provided by supply disruptions from Venezuela, where there are problems with electricity supply. The report on oil reserves of the American Petroleum Institute (API), published on Tuesday, indicated a decrease in reserves by 2.58 million barrels after rising by 7.29 million over the previous period. On March 13, investors expect the publication of the final report on oil reserves in the USA from the Department of Energy.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of March 5. Moderate support for the euro was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Industrial output in January rose by 1.4% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. Analysts had hoped for the emergence of positive dynamics, however, they were counting on a more modest growth of 1.0% MoM. YoY, production still shows a negative trend of -1.1% (significantly higher than forecasts of -2.1%y). In turn, the published macroeconomic statistics from the USA has managed to please investors with an increase in the volume of orders for durable goods. In January, the indicator rose by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.34% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of -0.5% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, rising to new record highs since June 14, 2018. After the failure of the vote on the Brexit deal in the British parliament on March 12, which caused the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics, the pound is generally trading positively, hoping to postpone the exit from the EU. Yesterday, the Parliament also rejected the idea of a country leaving the European Union without the deal, which leads Prime Minister Teresa May to the only possible way out of the situation. On March 14, there will be the third vote, on the postponement of Brexit. Speaking yesterday, May once again called on parliamentarians to approve the current version of the deal with the EU, since, without an agreement, the UK would have to ask for a longer delay, and this can only lead to a general complication of the process. There are quite a few Brexit opponents, and they will definitely try to take advantage of this hitch to lobby for a re-referendum. In addition, in May 2019, regular elections to the European Parliament will be held.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics on Wednesday and is actively declining today. The instrument is pressured by weak statistics on industrial output from China. In January, sales increased by 5.3% YoY after rising by 5.7% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 5.56% YoY. The retail sales index in China in January rose by 8.2% YoY without showing the expected decline to 8.1% YoY. Moderate support for AUD was also provided by expectations of consumer price inflation in Australia. In March, the index rose by 4.1% MoM after rising by 3.7% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows an upward trend against the Japanese yen. The US currency is still supported by fairly optimistic market sentiment and moderate investor interest in risk. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from the USA failed to meet all expectations of analysts but proved to be quite good, unlike Japanese statistics. Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft shipments, in January rose by 0.8% MoM after falling by 0.9% MoM last month. The experts counted on the growth of only 0.1% MoM. However, the producer price index in February rose by a mere 0.1% MoM and 1.9% YoY, with forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 1.9% YoY. Japanese statistics reflected a sharp decline in demand for machine-building products. In January, the indicator fell by 5.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Experts counted on -1.7% MoM and -2.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices are moderately rising, updating local highs of November 2018. One of the main growth factors was the EIA report on inventory dynamics published yesterday. As of March 8, oil and petroleum products in US warehouses decreased by 3.862 million barrels, after rising by 7.069 million over the previous period. Analysts expected growth of 2.655 million barrels. In addition, the report reflected a reduction in the overall production in the US from 12.100 million to 12.000 million barrels per day. During the Asian session on March 14, the instrument is trading in both directions, pressured by weak statistics on industrial output in China.