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  #801  
Old 31-05-2019, 10:47
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Cryptocurrency Market Review

2019-05-31 11:32 (GMT+2)

This week, cryptocurrencies showed ambiguous dynamics. The initial price increase is now replaced by a significant correction. Now Bitcoin is trading around 8215.00 (–3.9%), Ethereum — at 250.00 (–4.7%), Ripple — at the level of 0.4160 (+3.2%), Bitcoin Cash — at around 415.00 (–1.4%). EOS took the fifth place in terms of capitalization, displacing Litecoin from this position. Currently, EOS is trading at 7.360 (+5.7%). The total market capitalization during the week decreased from 270 to 261 billion dollars. Bitcoin's market share rose to 56.2%.

Despite the downward correction of the market in the second half of this week, most experts are confident that the uptrend will continue. The rise in the value of cryptocurrency assets will continue to be supported by the confrontation between China and the United States. Recently, it has moved from the tariff to the technological sphere, and if the bond market is also affected, this will entail a significant surge in demand for the largest cryptocurrencies. According to CNBC analysts, there is an inverse correlation between the yuan and Bitcoin on the market, with the latter acting as a safe haven. Also, the growth of Bitcoin is supported by the approximation of the date of a two-time reduction in the reward for miners (May 2020), which can provoke a sharp reduction in the supply of coins.

Cryptocurrency sites important releases include Coinbase preparation for the launch of margin trading. For now, it is discussed, in what form and how to provide this service to customers. Also, representatives of the exchange announced the addition of the ability to trade EOS coins to the Coinbase application on Android and iOS. Binance Cryptocurrency Exchange is preparing to release a new version of the Binance 2.0 platform, which will also contain the function of margin trading. Now this option is available in test mode. Also, the update will enhance the security of transactions in order to further eliminate the possibility of hacker attacks, such as the one that occurred in early May and cost the company's customers BTC 7000.

From other news, it is worth noting the publication of a new cryptocurrency rating from the China Center for Information Industry Development (CCID). It assesses coins in terms of technology base application, innovation and practical benefits. The first three places are occupied by EOS, TRON and Ethereum. Bitcoin takes only 12th place, and Ripple is at the 17th. The US Congressional Research Service published a report this week, in which it called Bitcoin not a payment, but a speculative tool. According to the research, cryptocurrency ultimately will not be able to compete with traditional means for storing capital and paying for goods and services. The ECB Research Group on the Study of Cryptocurrency Assets also released a report according to which cryptocurrencies currently do not pose a threat to the EU financial system, since their capitalization is only about 1% of euro area GDP. However, the group members called for a unified regulation of cryptocurrencies in the EU.

Next week, the beginning of a new growth in the cryptocurrency market is possible after the end of the current correction.
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  #802  
Old 03-06-2019, 06:56
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-03 08:52 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR is actively recovering against USD after updating local lows on May 30. Technical factors contribute to the development of "bullish" dynamics, while the fundamental background for the euro remains very ambiguous. Investors fear the development of a political crisis in Italy, as well as watching the development of trade relations between the EU and the US, which have worsened after the harsh statements by Donald Trump. Published on Friday, macroeconomic indicators from Europe failed to provide significant support to the euro. Retail Sales in Germany in April decreased by 2.0% MoM, but unexpectedly increased strongly in annual terms (+4.0% YoY). German CPI in May slowed from +1.0% MoM to +0.2% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the average market expectations. Meanwhile, HCPI slowed down from +2.1% YoY to 1.3% YoY over the same period.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading higher against USD at the beginning of the new week, developing a correctional impulse formed at the end of the last trading week. On Friday, macroeconomic statistics on consumer lending published in the UK provided moderate support for the instrument. Net Lending to Individuals in April rose from 4.7B to 5.2B pounds, while the forecast predicted its decline to 4.6B. Mortgage Approvals in April rose from 62.56K to 66.26K, which also exceeded the market expectations (63.25K). Investors are focused on statistics on May PMI in the UK. The current forecast of analysts suggests a decrease in Markit Manufacturing PMI from 53.1 to 52.0 points.

AUD/USD

AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of May 13. Corrective sentiment on the US currency contributes to the development of upward dynamics on the instrument, while the macroeconomic background from Australia remains ambiguous. AiG Manufacturing index went down from 54.8 to 52.7 points in May. Company Gross Operating Profits in Q1 2019 grew by 1.7% QoQ only, which is almost twice as bad as market expectations. ANZ Job Advertisements in May showed a sharp decline of 8.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM last month. On Tuesday, investors are waiting for the RBA decision on the interest rate, which is expected to be reduced from 1.50% to 1.25%. In the case of the implementation of forecasts, AUD may fall under pressure.

USD/JPY

USD fell sharply against JPY on May 31, updating local lows of mid-January. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument was the statements by US President Donald Trump's about his intention to sharply increase import duties on Mexican goods, if Mexico does not take measures aimed at restricting the flow of migrants. Investors fear that the implementation of Trump’s threats could have a significant impact on the US economy and exacerbate the threat of a recession, given the large trade turnover between the countries. Meanwhile, JPY is under pressure from a not too optimistic macroeconomic background from Japan. Friday statistics reflected a slowdown in growth in Retail Sales in April from +0.2% MoM to 0.0% MoM. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.0% to +0.5%. May data released today on the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in Japan showed an increase from 49.6 to 49.8 points, while analysts did not predict a change in this indicator.

Oil

Oil prices dropped markedly at the end of last week, updating local lows of mid-February. The reason for such a sharp decline of the instrument was the growing fears about global demand after statements by US President Donald Trump about the intention to increase import duties on all Mexican goods, if Mexico does not restrict the flow of illegal migrants. The opening of the new front in the US trade war serves as a source of uncertainty and threatens with the negative consequences for the world economy. Moreover, the American economy may also be significantly affected, since the trade turnover between the United States and Mexico is still very high. In addition to imports of agricultural products, the United States is actively importing oil from Mexico, so the current situation threatens with an additional decrease in demand.

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  #803  
Old 04-06-2019, 06:57
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-04 08:49 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR grew significantly against USD on Monday updating a new local high of May 13. Macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the US, which turned out to be worse than forecasts, contributed to the development of "bullish" dynamics on the instrument at the beginning of the week. ISM Manufacturing PMI in May declined from 52.8 to 52.1 points with the forecast of 53.0 points. Markit Manufacturing PMI in May declined from 52.6 to 50.5 points. In turn, ISM Manufacturing Prices in May rose from 50.0 to 53.2 points, which turned out to be better than the average market expectations of 52.0 points. European statistics on business activity was contradictory, but came close to forecasts, so it did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. Euro area's Manufacturing PMI went down from 47.9 to 47.7 points in May.

GBP/USD

GBP continued to rise against USD during the Asian session on June 3, rising to local highs of May 28. The pound was under pressure from weak data on business activity from the UK at the beginning of the week. According to the data from Markit, Manufacturing PMI in May fell from 53.1 to 49.4 points, while investors expected a decline only to 52.0 points. Investors are focused on the state visit of US President Donald Trump to the UK in addition to a marked increase in trade tensions in the market. Trump intends to discuss issues regarding the Chinese company Huawei, against which the United States recently imposed sanctions. It is planned that the Chinese corporation will be involved in the construction of fifth-generation communication networks in the UK. In addition, on the agenda of the visit are questions about a free trade agreement between countries, which is planned to be concluded after Brexit, in order to level losses from the process.

AUD/USD

AUD rose against USD on Monday, noting local highs of May 13. The Australian currency was supported by quite positive data on China's business activity, which did not demonstrate the expected decline. The growth of the instrument was also supported by the uncertain statistics on business activity from the US, which heightened tensions around the possible onset of a recession in the US economy. During the Asian session, the pair shows ambiguous trading. AUD is under pressure from the RBA decision to lower the interest rate to 1.25%.

USD/JPY

USD continues to weaken against JPY against the background of a further decline in investor interest in risk. The focus of the market is on US trade conflicts that threaten with a slowdown in global economic growth. Earlier, Donald Trump put forward a new ultimatum to Mexico. The US will increase import duties on all Mexican goods from June 10, unless the Mexican government takes measures to reduce the flow of migrants across the southern borders of the United States. Monday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan provided little support to the yen. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.6 to 49.8 points which was better than expected (49.6 points). Capital Spending in Q1 2019 grew from 5.7% to 6.1% with the forecast of +11.6%.

Oil

Oil prices continue to show negative dynamics. The main downward factor for the instrument remains the decline in global demand for raw materials amid worsening trade conflicts. Donald Trump’s statements about the intention to introduce import duties on Mexican goods from June 10, which were likely to have a negative impact on Mexican oil imports, hit the quotes hard. The former threats of weakening demand against the background of the US-Chinese trade war still remain. Protracted negotiations between the parties have not yet led to consensus, and Washington has only aggravated the situation, imposing tough sanctions against the Chinese Huawei. In turn, quotes are supported by positive statements by Saudi Arabia that the OPEC+ deal will continue to be implemented by all members of the cartel.
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  #804  
Old 05-06-2019, 07:56
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-05 08:50 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR rose significantly against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of April 18. The growth of the euro is still promoted by the correction factors of the US dollar, which appeared after the new threats of Donald Trump to introduce import duties against Mexico. Analysts have again spoken about the risks to the US economy that these and similar restrictive measures bear. Also, USD is under pressure from the Fed policy, which may return to lower interest rates in the event of further deterioration in economic indicators. At the same time, the market is characterized by a rather low investor interest in risk. Published on Tuesday, macroeconomic statistics from the euro area prevented the emergence of a more confident uptrend in the instrument. CPI slowed down in May from +1.7% YoY to +1.2% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expectations. Core CPI for the same period corrected from +1.3% YoY to +0.8% YoY with the forecast of +0.9% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP maintains an upward trend paired with USD, noting the new local highs of May 27. Published on Tuesday, the macroeconomic statistics from the UK was negative, but there was no significant pressure on the pound. The UK Construction PMI fell sharply in May from 50.5 to 48.6 points, while the forecast did not suggest any changes in the indicator. BRC Retail Sales Monitor in May also showed a decline of 3.0% YoY after rising by 3.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected an increase of +0.9% YoY. GBP is under additional pressure by the deadlock around Brexit. Teresa May did not manage to reach an agreement within the Parliament, which forced her to resign from the post of the Conservative Party leader. Perhaps the new Prime Minister will be able to find other ways for dialogue, but investors fear that the process may be delayed. Only the selection of a new party leader can take more than a month.

AUD/USD

AUD continues to grow moderately against AUD, updating the highs of 10 May. The growth of the instrument proceeds against the background of the publication of not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as yesterday's decision of the RBA to lower the interest rate to 1.25% for the first time in 3 years. However, the decision of the regulator was quite predictable, and therefore the pressure on the Australian dollar was moderate. In the follow-up statement, the RBA noted that it is trying to maintain employment and inflation levels that remain below target levels. Moreover, RBA officials did not rule out further steps to ease monetary policy. Investors today are focused on the preliminary statistics on Australia's GDP for Q1 2019. On a quarterly basis, the economy accelerated from +0.2% QoQ to +0.4% QoQ, which was slightly below the forecast of +0.5% QoQ. YoY, the growth of the index slowed down from +2.3% to +1.8%.

USD/JPY

USD is consolidating against JPY after active decline at the end of the last trading week. The yen is supported by a low investor interest in risk, as well as corrective sentiment on the US currency. However, the activity on the instrument remains quite low. Nikkei Services PMI exerts some pressure on JPY on Wednesday. In May, according to preliminary estimates, the figure dropped from 51.8 to 51.7 points, with a forecast of growth to 51.9 points. On Thursday, markets are expecting the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, who may reveal the regulator’s plans for monetary policy in the near future.

Oil

Oil prices are correcting after a steady decline at the end of the last trading week. The growth of quotations is largely technical in nature, while negative factors only intensify. In particular, it became known that Russia opposes further restrictions on oil production under the OPEC+ deal. The report of the American Petroleum Institute reflected the growth of oil reserves for the week as of May 31 by 3.545 million barrels after a decrease of 5.265 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors expect to publish similar statistics from the US Department of Energy.
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  #805  
Old 06-06-2019, 07:13
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-06 08:42 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR showed ambiguous trading against USD on Wednesday. In the morning, EUR was trading higher and the instrument was able to update its local highs of April 17, but then traders began to actively get rid of long positions, which caused a significant pullback. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was the aggravation of relations between the Italian government and the EU leadership after representatives of the European Commission announced the validity of the claims. Italy faces a large fine for the excess of public debt, which last year amounted to more than 130%. Wednesday's macroeconomic statistics from euro area provided moderate support to the instrument. Markit Services PMI in May increased from 52.8 to 52.9 points with the forecast of the decline to 52.5 points. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 51.5 to 51.8 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 51.6 points.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP broke off its moderate growth against USD and showed a downward reversal. In the first half of the day, consumer sentiment on the pound was supported by good macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the UK. Markit UK Services PMI in May increased from 50.4 to 51.0 points with the forecast of the increase to 50.6 points only. With the opening of the US trading session, correctional sentiments returned to the market, supported by strong PMI data from ISM. Non-Manufacturing PMI reflected an increase from 55.5 to 56.9 points, although analysts did not expect the indicator value to change. During today's Asian session, the pair shows flat trading, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. On Thursday, investors are focused on the ECB interest rate meeting, as well as on the speech by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a decline against USD on Wednesday, departing from local highs of May 10 which were updated the day before. Certain pressure on the instrument was caused by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics released in Australia and China, but the main factor of the correction was the strengthening of the position of USD. During the Asian session on June 6, the pair is relatively stable and shows flat trading. Investors estimate Australian import and export statistics. In April, exports and imports increased by 3% after a decline of 2% last month. April Balance of Trade slightly decreased from AUD 4.887 billion to AUD 4.871 billion, which turned out to be somewhat worse than expectations.

USD/JPY

USD showed correctional growth against JPY on Wednesday, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In particular, investors paid attention to the extremely weak ADP Employment Change report. In May, the report reflected an increase in the private sector by only 27K new jobs after rising by 271K over the past month. The forecast assumed growth by 180K. Increased attention to the report is due to the upcoming publications on the US labor market on Friday.

Oil

Oil prices returned to decline on Wednesday, interrupting the development of the correction impulse formed the day before. Powerful pressure on the quotes on Wednesday was exerted by the US Department of Energy Crude Oil Inventory report, indicating a sharp increase in oil reserves in the country. For a week as of May 31, oil stocks in US warehouses increased by 6.771M barrels, after a decrease of 0.282M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.849M barrels. At the same time, the report also reflected an increase in oil production in the United States from 12.300M to 12.400M barrels per day.
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  #806  
Old 07-06-2019, 07:20
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-07 08:44 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed strong growth against USD on Thursday, recovering from a corrective decline of the previous day. The reason for the emergence of the uptrend was another weakening of USD against the background of the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the United States and the growth of trade tensions between the countries. On Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change reflected a sharp slowdown in job growth from 275K to 27K, which turned out to be drastically worse than forecasts (180K). Thursday's data indicated a decline in Nonfarm Productivity in Q1 2019 from 3.6% to 3.4%, with a forecast of 3.5%. Unit Labor Costs for the same period declined by 1.6% after the decline of 0.9% in the previous period. European statistics was more predictable, which provided moderate support for the euro. Euro area's GDP for Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which fully coincided with the forecasts. The ECB kept the interest rate at 0%, noting that its growth is possible not earlier than the first half of 2020.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading flat against USD, remaining close to local highs, updated on Thursday. Despite the publication of weak statistics from the US, the pound was not able to consolidate in the uptrend, being under pressure from uncertain prospects around Brexit. On Thursday, investors were focused on the speech of the Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who is currently on a visit to Japan. The speech of the head of the regulator did not render any long-term support to the instrument, since it was largely devoted to the problems of investment funds. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of Halifax UK House Price Index, as well as the release of an updated consumer inflation forecast. The May report on the US labor market will be more interesting.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a slight increase against USD on Thursday, weakening the downward corrective impulse formed the day before. During the Asian session, the instrument is again prone to decline, yet investors prefer to wait for the appearance of new drivers in the market. Friday's statistics from Australia was rather weak. AiG Construction Index went down from 42.6 to 40.4 points in May. Home Loans in April decreased by 1.2% after a decline of 2.5% in March. Analysts expected a decline of only 0.2%. Investment Lending for Homes in April showed a decrease of 2.2% after a decline of 2.7% in March.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY, ending yesterday’s trading session with a slight decrease. Pressure on USD was exerted by weak macroeconomic data from the United States published on Thursday. In addition, investors are cautiously waiting for the release of the May report on the US labor market, because according to the previously published ADP report, the real state of the market may be significantly worse than expectations. In turn, the yen continues to receive moderate support from the risks of developing US trade conflicts with China and Mexico and a possible interest rate cut by the Fed in the foreseeable future. The process of negotiations between the US and Mexico has not yet brought visible success, but the market as a whole is quite optimistic and expects that on June 10, import duties on Mexican goods will not be introduced.

Oil

Oil prices rose significantly on Thursday, departing from local lows of January 29, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical in nature, whereas the former negative factors are still very strong. In particular, the market fears further decline in global demand amid a slowing global economy. A previously published report from the US Department of Energy also put strong pressure on quotes, reflecting an increase in oil production rates and indicating a sharp increase in inventories. On Friday, investors are focused on the May report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.
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  #807  
Old 10-06-2019, 07:19
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-10 08:53 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR rose significantly against USD on Friday, updating local highs of March 22. The reason for the emergence of a confident upward trend was the extremely weak report from the US labor market, which reinforced concerns about the Fed rate cut. In May, Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 75K new jobs, while analysts had expected growth of 185K jobs. In April, the indicator grew by 224K. Average Weekly Hours in May remained at the same level of 34.4 hours, with the forecast for the indicator to rise to 34.5. Average Hourly Earnings in May increased by 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY, which again turned out to be worse than market expectations (+0.3% MoM and +3.2% YoY). During the Asian session on June 10, the pair is trading downwards, negatively reacting to ambiguous statistics from China.

GBP/USD

GBP showed growth against USD on Friday, recovering from the uncertain dynamics of the second half of last week. The strengthening of the British currency was caused by weak data on the US labor market, while the macroeconomic background of the UK remained neutral. At the same time, investors enthusiastically greeted statistics on Halifax House Price Index. In May, prices showed an increase of 0.5% MoM after rising by 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. During the Asian session on June 10, the instrument is relatively stable. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Today, investors focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Such indicators as Industrial Production, Trade Balance and GDP data for May are expected to be released. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the speech of the representative of the Bank of England Michael Saunders is expected.

AUD/USD

AUD rose moderately against USD on Friday, noting local highs of May 8. The growth of the instrument proceeded against the background of the publication of weak data on the US labor market; however, the Australian data were also quite disappointing. AiG Construction Index of Australia in May fell from 42.6 to 40.4 points, which was worse than the average market forecasts. Home Loans in April decreased by 1.2% after a decline of 2.5% in March. Analysts expected a decline of only 0.2%. During the Asian session on June 10, the instrument is trading downwards. Australian markets are closed today due to the Queen's Birthday, so investors are focused on news from the United States. Additional pressure on AUD was exerted by contradictory statistics on imports and exports from China.

USD/JPY

USD showed a decline against JPY at the end of last week, returning to the same local lows, updated on June 5. Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US put significant pressure on the US currency and again increased the risks of easing monetary policy by the Fed. At the same time, USD receives moderate support from optimistic signals around the US-Mexico trade negotiations. It is possible that Donald Trump will postpone the imposition of import duties on Mexican goods, which should come into force today, June 10. During today's Asian session, the dollar is trading higher, with investors almost completely ignoring strong statistics from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, with the forecast of +0.5% QoQ and +2.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices recovered significantly at the end of last week, departing from local lows of January 29, updated on June 5. The quotes are supported by positive comments by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Khalid Al-Falih, who said that Riyadh does not plan to increase production to compensate for current oil prices, which, in his opinion, remain low and do not imply an increase in investment in the industry. Instead, Saudi Arabia is in favor of extending the OPEC agreement, which ends at the end of this month. At the end of last week, quotes were also supported by Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA, the number of which for the reporting week dropped sharply from 800 to 789 units.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:00
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-11 08:42 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a slight decrease against USD on Monday, correcting after a strong growth of the instrument at the end of last week, when the euro updated local highs of March 22. The development of the "bearish" dynamics was due to the strengthening of USD in response to progress in the US-Mexico trade negotiations. Under the influence of a rather tough ultimatum on the part of Donald Trump, Mexico announced a number of measures against illegal migration, which ultimately made it possible to avoid an increase in import duties. Analysts are optimistic about this news, because they extrapolate this experience with Mexico to a situation with China, where a compromise has not yet been reached. Earlier, Donald Trump noted that he plans to discuss trade relations with Xi Jinping at the sites of the G20 Summit, which will be held on June 28 in Osaka.

GBP/USD

GBP showed active decline against USD on Monday, almost completely offsetting the strong growth of the end of last week. Significant pressure on GBP was put by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in April decreased sharply by 2.7% MoM and 1.0% YoY after the increase by 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Analysts counted on –0.7% MoM and +1.0% YoY. During the same period, Manufacturing Production decreased by 3.9% MoM and 0.8% YoY, which also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts (–1.1% MoM and +2.2% YoY). Index of Services in April showed an increase of 0.2% QoQ, slowing down from the previous +0.3% QoQ. GDP in April showed a sharp decline of 0.4% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in March. During the Asian session on June 11, the instrument shows flat trading, and investors are awaiting publication of data on the UK labor market.

AUD/USD

AUD dropped significantly against USD at the beginning of this week, departing from its local highs. Australian markets were closed on Monday due to the national holiday, so the focus was on the optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the US and Mexico, which allowed to avoid a new trade war. Some support for AUD on Monday is provided by news from China. Exports in May showed an increase of 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 2.7% YoY last month. Analysts counted on aggravating negative dynamics and reducing the index by 3.8% YoY. Imports, in contrast, fell sharply by 8.5% YoY after rising by 4.0% YoY in April. All this led to a sharp increase in the trade surplus, which reached USD 41.65 billion in May against the previous value of USD 13.84 billion.

USD/JPY

USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Monday, ending the day session with almost zero result. The dollar was supported by optimistic news about the signing of an agreement between the USA and Mexico, which made it possible to avoid imposing import duties on Mexican goods from June 10. Investors also hoped that the US would be able to make some progress in trade negotiations with China. In turn, the yen received strong support from macroeconomic publications from Japan. Japan's GDP in Q1 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ after a growth of 0.5% QoQ over the previous period. In annual terms, the growth of the Japanese economy in Q1 2019 reached +2.2% YoY after rising by 2.1% YoY in the previous period.

Oil

Oil prices returned to decline on Monday, retreating from the new local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by Russia's uncertain position on the issue of extending the current OPEC+ deal, which ends at the end of the month. A negative factor is still the low demand for petroleum products against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global economy. Trade tensions between the US and China have not gone away, and after the G20 Summit at the end of the month, a new round of increase in duties is quite possible if the parties do not reach any agreement. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock. The previous report reflected increase in volumes of 3.545M barrels.
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Old 12-06-2019, 07:06
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-12 08:56 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed growth against USD again on Tuesday, returning to an uptrend after some decline at the beginning of the week. EUR remains heavily overbought in the nearest time intervals, as it shows an active growth since May 31, but this does not particularly disturb investors. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published yesterday was contradictory. Investors welcomed the growth of NFIB Small Business Optimism index in May from 103.5 to 105.0 points. At the same time, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for June dropped sharply from 58.6 to 53.2 points, while analysts predicted its growth to 59.2 points. The May Producer Price Index in the USA also slowed down a bit. PPI in May showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.2% MoM in April. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +2.2% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +2.0% YoY. It is also worth noting that European statistics on Tuesday turned out worse than market forecasts. Sentix Investor Confidence in June decreased from 5.3 to –3.3 points, while the forecast predicted a decline only to 2.3 points.

GBP/USD

GBP rebounded against USD on Tuesday, offsetting a decline of the previous day. The instrument was supported by moderately strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as a general negative attitude towards the US currency. Average Earnings ex. Bonus showed an increase in April by 3.4% 3MoY, which turned out to be better than last month data (+3.3% 3MoY) and forecasts (+3.1% 3MoY). Average Earnings Index + Bonus for the same period slowed down from +3.3% 3MoY to +3.1% 3MoY, but turned out to be better than expectations of +2.9% 3MoY. The Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 3.8%.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a slight decline against USD on Tuesday, retaining the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. Yesterday, the instrument was moderately supported by the data from Australia, as well as rising pessimism about the prospects for the American economy. During the Asian session on June 12, the pair is trading downwards. Investors take a lead from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and so far ignore the optimism of Chinese data. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in June showed a decline of 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.6% MoM over the previous period. Chinese statistics showed a rapid rise in the Consumer Price Index in May from 2.5% YoY to 2.7% YoY, which coincided with forecasts. The soft position of the RBA remains a negative factor for the instrument. Last week, the Australian regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, noting the negative impact of external factors. By the end of the year, the RBA plans to reduce the rate to 1%.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous trading in pair with the Japanese yen, remaining close to the local lows, updated on June 5. The yen is still under pressure from uncertain news background and the threat of a possible easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. In addition, investors are currently not very interested in safe assets, although the situation remains rather unstable. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide moderate support to the yen. Thus, the Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. In turn, Producer Price Index in May showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in April. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.2% to +0.7%.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight decrease on Tuesday, continuing the development of a negative trend, re-formed at the beginning of the current trading week. Investors are focused on a program to reduce oil supply to the market under the OPEC+ deal. The main participants of the cartel have already agreed to extend the agreement after its termination in late June. Russia also announced the possible support of such a decision, which improved the prospects for maintaining a balance of supply and demand in the market. Yesterday's API report on Weekly Crude Oil Stock showed the growth rate for the week as of June 7 from 3.545 million to 4.850 million barrels. On Wednesday, investors expect the publication of similar statistics from the US Department of Energy.
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  #810  
Old 13-06-2019, 06:56
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-13 08:51 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, departing from local highs of March 22, updated late last week. The reduction of the instrument was largely technical in nature, while the news background did not change much. EUR was under pressure after the speech by the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi, who focused on the vulnerability of the Central European countries to new threats of global trade war. With the opening of the American session, investors focused on the statistics on consumer inflation from the US. In May, CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.8% YoY, slowing from the previous +0.3% MoM and +2.0% YoY. Core CPI showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was slightly worse than market expectations. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading in both directions, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The focus is on the German statistics on consumer inflation in May, as well as the dynamics of industrial production in the euro area in April.

GBP/USD

GBP continues trading in both directions against USD. On Wednesday, the instrument returned to decline, despite the publication of weak statistics on consumer inflation from the US. GBP remains under pressure from an uncertain position on Brexit and weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Market participants fear that the new Prime Minister may destroy all the fragile agreements that Theresa May has been able to reach with the EU, and will eventually choose Brexit without a deal. In particular, one of the candidates for the post of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, does not exclude such an option. At the same time, British Treasury Secretary Philip Hammond said earlier that the UK’s exit from the EU on October 31 is an almost impossible task.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday, responding to the overall strengthening of USD across the entire market. The US dollar is growing despite the publication of disappointing statistics on the US consumer inflation, which has heightened fears of a speedy reduction in the interest rate by the Fed. During the Asian session on June 13, the instrument is trading downwards. At the same time, AUD is supported by a moderately optimistic report on the labor market in Australia in May. The level of employment in May grew by 42.3K workplaces against 28.4K last month. Analysts expected a growth of only 17.5K. Participation Rate in May reached 66.0%, while the forecast assumed that the figure would remain unchanged at 65.8%. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in May remained at the previous level of 5.2%, while experts counted on reducing it to 5.1%.

USD/JPY

USD was almost unchanged paired with JPY on Wednesday. The market almost ignored the publication of a weak report on US consumer inflation, while the demand for yen remained quite low amid growing interest in risk. In turn, yesterday's macroeconomic statistics released in Japan managed to provide slight support to JPY. Japanese Core Machinery Orders in April increased by 5.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which was significantly better than the forecast of –0.8% MoM and –5.3% YoY. During today's Asian session, statistics from Japan provide support to the yen. Tertiary Industry Activity Index in May showed an increase of 0.8% YoY after a decrease of 0.4% YoY last month.

Oil

Oil prices declined significantly during Wednesday trading, reacting to the disappointing statistics on stocks from the US Department of Energy. According to the data, the volume of oil and petroleum products in the United States for the week as of June 7 rose by 2.206 million barrels after rising by 6.771 million barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline in stocks of 0.481 million barrels. Production volumes in the United States during the reporting period decreased from 12.400 to 12.300 million barrels per day. The report also pointed to lower forecasts for growth in demand for oil for the second half of 2019. In turn, the quotes are supported by the expectation of an extension of the OPEC+ deal on limiting oil production. In addition, investors are optimistic about the development of the US-Chinese trade conflict and expect positive changes after the G20 summit, which will take place in late June.
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Old 14-06-2019, 07:18
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-14 08:51 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR continues to weaken paired with USD, developing a correction impulse formed on Wednesday. USD is rising due to the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US, but investors are also worried about the growing uncertainty around Brexit. It became known that the IMF negatively assesses the prospects for the EU to achieve target levels for economic growth; therefore, it is likely that the Fund will revise its forecasts in the near future. Yesterday, EUR was under pressure from the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The volume of industrial production in April fell by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. In annual terms, the decline has decreased from –0.7% YoY to –0.4% YoY, with the forecast of –0.5% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading in both directions against USD, mainly with a decrease since the middle of this week. Brexit remains the main driver for the pound. After the announcement of the resignation of the current British Prime Minister Theresa May, the volatility around Brexit has increased significantly, and the market has again started talking about the possibility of a country leaving the EU without a deal. One of the leaders of the pre-election race, Boris Johnson, is also considering the hard Brexit scenario. On Friday, investors are focused on the US macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and consumer confidence. In the UK, the speech by the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, is expected.

AUD/USD

AUD is declining against USD, updating local lows of May 24. The decrease in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of USD practically throughout the entire market, while the macroeconomic statistics from the USA and Australia remain ambiguous. The report on the Australian labor market reflected a steady growth in Employment by 42.3K jobs, which was significantly better than expectations of 17.5K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at the same level of 5.2%, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 5.1%. During the Asian session on June 14, there are no interesting statistics from Australia, so investors are awaiting the publication of data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production from China. In addition, the press conference of the National Bureau of Statistics will be held.

USD/JPY

USD fell against JPY on Thursday, being under pressure from weak statistics from the US. In addition, a high level of market uncertainty provides significant support to the yen. Thursday's data from the US indicated an increase in Initial Jobless Claims by 222K, which turned out to be worse than the data for the previous period (219K) and the forecast of 216K. Import Price Index in May decreased by –0.3% MoM and –1.5% YoY, with the forecast of –0.2% MoM and –1.4% YoY. Export Price Index showed a decrease of –0.2% MoM and –0.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts of –0.1% MoM and –0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on June 14, the instrument is relatively stable. Some support for JPY has been provided by macroeconomic statistics on Industrial Production published in Japan. In April production volumes increased by 0.6% MoM, which coincided with the forecasts. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month.

Oil

Oil prices increased significantly on Thursday, responding to information about the attack on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Such news signals not only interruptions in the oil supply, but also exacerbates tensions in the market from the possible tightening of US sanctions. Analysts believe that the US can once again blame Iran for attacks, regardless of whether the state bears any real responsibility for the incident. A certain pressure on the quotes was put by the OPEC monthly report, which among other things reflected the decline in the forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 by 70 thousand barrels per day. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count in the United States.
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Old 17-06-2019, 06:46
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-17 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Friday, retreating to local lows of June 6. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was the strong macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the general corrective sentiment at the market. The volume of industrial production in the US in May increased by 0.4% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive trend to recover, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth. Capacity Utilization Rate in May rose from 77.9% to 78.1%, which turned out to be better than the market forecast of 78.0%. Statistics from the euro area published on Friday turned out to be noticeably worse. France Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices slowed down in May from +0.3% MoM to +0.1% MoM, and from +1.3% YoY to +0.9% YoY. In Italy, the volume of industrial orders fell sharply. In April, the indicator fell by 2.4% MoM after rising by 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by +2.4% MoM.

GBP/USD

GBP returned to an active decline against USD at the end of the last trading week, updating local lows of May 31. The negative dynamics of the instrument is taking place against the background of further growing uncertainty in the market, which forces investors to look for safer assets. At the same time, concerns about a rate cut by the US Fed have now faded into insignificance, since the market has partially involved this scenario in current quotes. The speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Friday did not provide any support for GBP, since it was not devoted to the prospects of monetary policy. Brexit remains a powerful negative factor for the instrument, as well as the election of a new British Prime Minister. Markets fear that the UK will leave the EU without a deal, which will cause more harm to the national economy.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a decline against USD on Friday, having updated local lows of the beginning of 2019. The development of negative dynamics of the instrument on Friday was due to strong macroeconomic statistics from the US, coupled with increased uncertainty in the market. Macroeconomic statistics from China also put certain pressure on the instrument. Industrial Production in May slowed down from +5.4% to +5.0% YoY, while analysts predicted growth of the rate to +5.5% YoY. Fixed Asset Investment decreased from +6.1% YoY to +5.6% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of 6.1%. During the Asian session on June 17, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. The macroeconomic background is relatively poor today, so an increase in volatility is expected from Tuesday, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

USD/JPY

USD showed a slight increase against JPY on Friday, but still maintains the flat corridor, which has existed since June 3. Support for the US currency is provided by strong macroeconomic data from the US, as well as a reduction in concerns about the development of a recession in the US economy. Published on Friday, statistics from Japan could not provide any substantial support to JPY. Industrial production in Japan in April showed an increase of 0.6% MoM and decreased by 1.1% YoY. The data coincided with forecasts and with the dynamics of last month. Capacity Utilization in April increased by 1.6% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a growth of +0.2% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Friday, continuing the development of a corrective impulse. Technical factors contributed to the development of "bullish" dynamics of the instrument, while the former negative background remained. Last week, the International Energy Agency lowered its demand forecast for the current year by 100K barrels to 1.2M barrels per day. A similar forecast was published by OPEC, lowering the forecast of demand to 1.14M barrels per day. The quotes are still supported by growing tensions in the Middle East: last week two tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. The US has already blamed Iran for these attacks, which could lead to a new round of sanctions pressure on Tehran.
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Old 18-06-2019, 07:07
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-18 08:59 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

On Monday, EUR against USD rose within the correction, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of the last trading week. The strengthening of the instrument is due to technical factors since investors are in no hurry to open new positions until the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. Traders are waiting for comments regarding monetary easing in the near future. During the June meeting, the rate cut is doubtful but in July it looks quite likely. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is also trading in an upward manner. On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of a block of EU statistics on consumer inflation and economic sentiment. The market will also pay attention to the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and comments from other representatives of the Central Bank.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP actively declined against USD, renewing its lows from the beginning of the year. The development of negative dynamics was due to the growing concern about the "hard" Brexit. Talk about leaving the UK from the EU without a deal resumed after Teresa May announced her resignation, and candidates who intend to withdraw the country from the EU unambiguously joined the election race. The current leader of the race is Boris Johnson. Monday’s British statistics also did not support GBP. Thus, the housing price index from Rightmove in May slowed down from +0.9% MoM to +0.3% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator did not change after a growth of 0.1% YoY in April. Today, traders are waiting for the speech of the Bank of England’s CEO Mark Carney.

AUD/USD

AUD is falling against USD, renewing the lows from January 3 of the current year. The demand for commodity assets remains low, as investors fear a further slowdown in the global economy and the expansion of trade conflicts. In addition, traders won’t change the previous trends, preferring to wait for a key Fed meeting, when the terms of interest rate reductions may be announced. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is declining due to poor statistics on housing prices. An additional “bearish” factor for the instrument is the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes of June 4, when the regulator decreased the interest rate by 25 basis points. Q1 housing price index fell by 3.0% QoQ after falling 2.4% QoQ last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 1.6% QoQ.

USD/JPY

USD is relatively stable against JPY, trading ambiguously. On Monday, few key macroeconomic statistics from the United States entered the market, so investors continued to discuss the prospects for easing the Fed's monetary policy. Published data on the market value of housing from the NAHB reflected the decline in the index in June from 66 to 64 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 67 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Federal Reserve Bank dropped sharply from 17.8 to –8.6 points in June against the forecast of a decline only to 10 points.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices fell slightly, as investors focused on the prospects for a slowdown in the global economy and a further decline in demand for petroleum products. Industrial production in China is falling at a record pace and is already at its lowest level of 17 years. Prospects for the normalization of trade relations between the United States and China remain vague, although investors are optimistic about the beginning of the G20 summit in late June. Interruptions in oil supplies due to the tense situation in the Middle East, as well as OPEC+ policies aimed at curbing the growth of oil and oil products, continue to support the prices moderately. Today, investors are focused on the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of June 14.
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  #814  
Old 19-06-2019, 06:45
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-19 08:38 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a noticeable decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of June 3. The reason for the resumption of active "bearish" dynamics was the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, who did not rule out the use of broad incentives if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. He was talking about both additional interest rate cuts and expansion of the quantitative easing program. The published macroeconomic statistics from Europe also did not support EUR. Investors were greatly disappointed with the statistics on the ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany. In June, the indicator dropped sharply from -2.1 to -21.1 points, with a forecast of a decline to -5.9 points. In the Eurozone, the index fell from -18.6 to -20.2 points. The Eurozone consumer price index in May showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.2% YoY, slowing down from the previous 0.7% MoM and 1.7% YoY.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed moderate growth against the US dollar on June 18, which allowed it to partially win back Monday's losses. However, the pound managed to update the local minima of January 3, since the position of the US currency continues to be quite strong. The main driver for GBP growth were technical factors, while there was no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK. The speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, also failed to provide significant support to the instrument, since it did not concern the monetary policy outlook. On Thursday, the BoE will publish its decision on rates. Analysts believe that the decision to maintain rates at the current level will be taken unanimously.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday, recovering from a 6-day "bearish" rally. The instrument was supported by the rise in correction sentiment in anticipation of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, as the market fears a quick decline in interest rates in USA. In addition, the demand for the Australian dollar has increased after the optimistic Donald Trump publications on Twitter, where he announced his meeting with PRC President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. AUD is slightly pressured by statistics from Australia. The Westpac index of leading economic indicators in May showed a decline of 0.1% MoM while maintaining a negative trend.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a noticeable decline against the Japanese yen on June 18 but managed to recover by the close of the day session. The instrument was supported by optimistic comments from Donald Trump on Twitter, which announced a meeting with PRC leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. The US and Chinese teams should start meeting in the near future to discuss the trade conflict. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, and investors expect new drivers and a significant increase in volatility at the end of the week. The Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will meet, too. On Wednesday, the yen is pressured by the statistics from Japan. Exports in May collapsed by 7.8% YoY after falling by 2.4% YoY last month. Imports decreased from 6.5% YoY to -1.5% YoY with a forecast of 0.2% YoY. In May, Japan’s trade balance was again in deficit of -967.1 billion yen.

Oil

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced a meeting with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in late June. Investors are still hoping for a favorable resolution of the trade conflict, which significantly increases the risks in the market. Some support for quotes was provided by API report on oil reserves. For the week of June 14, oil reserves fell by 0.812 million barrels after rising by 4.850 million over the previous period. On Wednesday, investors will focus on the Fed's interest rate decision with an accompanying press conference, as well as the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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Old 20-06-2019, 07:20
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-20 08:53 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, departing from local minima, updated as a result of a confident downward rally since June 12. Today, the instrument also grows actively. The reason for the appearance of "bullish" dynamics was the outcome of the US Fed meeting; half of the representatives of the regulator were in favor of lowering the interest rate by the end of the year. Also, the growth in demand for the euro was due to Donald Trump's intentions to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. More confident growth of EUR on Wednesday was hampered by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Europe. German producer price index in May fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.5% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 2.5% to 1.9%.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards against the US dollar, quickly regaining the losses of the end of last week. The reason for the strengthening of corrective moods became quite pessimistic comments by the Fed after the meeting on June 19. As expected, the regulator did not change the course of monetary policy but signaled the possibility of such changes in the near future. GBP, in turn, quite coldly reacted to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on Wednesday. The consumer price index in May slowed down from 0.6% MoM to 0.3%MoM, which coincided with market expectations. YoY, the index slowed down from 2.1% to 2.0%. A report by CBI reflected a sharp decline in industrial orders in June: -15 points against the previous -10. Today, the instrument is also trading upwards, but investors are awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England meeting. It is expected that the regulator will unanimously vote to maintain the current monetary policy.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 19. The instrument was moderately supported by corrective sentiment on the US currency that strengthened amid the "dovish" Fed rhetoric. In turn, macroeconomic statistics from Australia continued to put moderate pressure on the pair. The Westpac index of leading economic indicators in May showed a decline of 0.08% MoM after a decrease of 0.05% MoM in April. Today, the instrument is trading upwards, and investors play on the publication of the RBA bulletin and the speech of the head of the regulator Philip Lowe. However, the speech of the RBA head had only a moderate impact on the AUD, since it was almost entirely devoted to the situation on the labor market and did not touch upon aspects of future monetary policy.

USD/JPY

The US dollar declined markedly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, interrupting the flat tendency formed since June 3. The yen was supported by the results of the US Fed meeting, after which the market concentrated on discussing the prospects for easing monetary policy at the next meeting of the regulator. Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. As expected, the key rate was kept at -0.1%. The regulator again complained about the slowdown in exports and production in view of the deteriorating situation in the global economy and the growth of protectionist sentiment. The main forecasts and target levels of the BoJ remained unchanged.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on June 19, despite the publication of optimistic data on the dynamics of oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. According to the report, oil reserves for the week of June 14 decreased by 3.106 million barrels after rising by 2.206 million over the previous period. The report also indicated a reduction in production from 12.300 to 12.200 million barrels per day. Quotes have additional support from hopes for the conclusion of the US-China trade agreement. Earlier, Donald Trump announced a meeting with the PRC leader at the G20 summit, which caused a noticeable enthusiasm in the market.
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Old 24-06-2019, 07:28
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-24 08:44 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a sharp rise against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of March 22. The reason for the further weakening of the US currency is the decline in the yield of treasury bonds, the pigeon position of the Fed, and the growing risks of currency interventions in addition to lowering the interest rate. The euro was supported by macroeconomic statistics published at the end of the week. In June, according to preliminary estimates, the composite Markit Manufacturing PMI showed an increase from 51.8 to 52.1 points with a "no change" forecast. Markit Services PMI for the same period increased from 52.9 to 53.4 points, which is also above expectations. In turn, US indices showed a decline. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.5 to 50.1 points while the forecast was 50.4 points. Services PMI dropped from 50.9 to 50.7 points, with a forecast of growth to 51.0 points.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards against the US currency, updating local highs of June 12. The instrument is supported by the weak dollar position, which expects monetary policy easing at the Fed meeting in July. Also, investors are waiting for the start of the G20 summit at the end of the week and are hoping for positive results from a possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. In turn, the pound is pressured by the increased uncertainty around Brexit. Last week, the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, noted that he was looking forward to working with the new British Prime Minister, but stressed that the agreements reached under the agreement are not subject to revision. This is a rather alarming signal since practically all candidates for the post of prime minister in one way or another support the revision of certain points of the agreement. The alternative is still the "no deal" Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 21, but today it is actively growing again. The strengthening of the instrument is largely due to technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from Australia and the United States remains controversial. The market headed for the weakening of the USD amid the upcoming easing of the Fed's monetary policy, however, in many ways the possible decision of the regulator has already influenced the current level of quotes.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the yen at the end of the week, reversing near the updated local lows of the beginning of the year. The reason for the slowdown in the "bearish" dynamics was the technical correction, as well as the relatively weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.8 to 49.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 50.0 points. The growth of the national consumer price index in May slowed down from 0.9% YoY to 0.7% YoY, coinciding with analysts' forecasts. Today, investors are focused on the publication of indexes of leading and coincident indicators in Japan in April. On June 25, the market is waiting for the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on June 21, responding to increased tensions in the Middle East after the incident with the US drone shot down by Iran. On Friday, Donald Trump canceled a strike on Iran noting that this could cause a disproportionate loss of lives, so the market is now waiting for the current sanctions to strengthen. In any case, the prospects for US-Iranian relations have noticeably deteriorated and it is obviously not necessary to count on normalizing the situation in the near future. On Friday, slight pressure on quotes was provided by the published Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the week, the number
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Old 25-06-2019, 07:14
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-25 08:35 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Monday, updating local highs of March 21. The strengthening the single currency is caused by the weakness of the dollar, which reacts negatively to the prospects for reducing the interest rate by the Fed. However, the threat of easing monetary policy exists in Europe, too. Some analysts believe that before leaving, the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will try to convince the board members of the need for new incentives amid low inflation expectations. The macroeconomic statistics published on Monday showed no significant support for the euro. The German Ifo index of economic expectations in June showed a decline from 95.3 to 94.2 points, with a forecast of a decline to 94.5 points. The business optimism index for the same period decreased from 97.9 to 97.4 points (better than analysts' forecasts of 97.3 points).

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Monday, updating local highs of 21 May. The news background of the beginning of the week remained fairly calm, so investors were focused on the former drivers. The dollar is still pressured by the greatly increased tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the uncertainty in trade relations with China in anticipation of the G20 summit, at which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can meet. The pound is pressured by uncertainty with Brexit. Investors fear that changing the prime minister will not help the approval process of the current agreement, and the country will be forced to leave the EU without an agreement at all, which threatens another slowdown in the global economy.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US one on Monday, rising to new local highs of 10 June. Amid the lack of new drivers in the market, USD is noticeably losing to AUD due to increased tensions. This is due to several factors, including the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, as well as the upcoming meeting of the heads of the United States and China. Despite the optimistic mood of the market, analysts fear that, if the June negotiations of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping come to a standstill, the next chance to normalize trade relations between the countries will not appear soon. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in May rose from -0.48 to -0.05 points, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts (-0.37 points). The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in June fell from -5.3 to -12.1 points, against the forecasts of growth to 4.8 points.

USD/JPY

At the beginning of the week, the US dollar showed ambiguous and inactive trading dynamic against the Japanese yen. In the absence of significant news factors, investors continued to play on existing drivers. The yen was moderately supported by indices from Japan. The index of leading indicators in April rose from 95.7 to 95.9 points, with a forecast of 95.5 points. The index of coincident indicators for the same period strengthened from 101.1 to 102.1 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 101.9 points. Today, the yen is showing aggressive growth, despite the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. Prices for corporate services in March showed an increase of 0.8% YoY, slowing down from the previous value of 1.0% YoY. Investors are also focused on the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy from April 24-25. However, the document did not reflect anything new and reaffirmed the commitment of the regulator to the soft policy. Probably, the rates will remain unchanged at least until the spring of 2020.

Oil

Oil prices returned to decline at the beginning of the week, departing from local highs, updated on Friday. The reason for the decline in quotes was the existing factors of low demand for petroleum products against the background of a slowdown in the global economy and an increase in tensions in certain regions. In particular, the attention is focused on the conflict between the USA and Iran, aggravated after the US drone was shot down in the Persian Gulf. The conflict between the USA and China remains unresolved. However, investors have high hopes for meeting Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meeting at the G20 summit, which will be held at the end of the week in Japan. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and on the publication of the API report on oil reserves for the week of June 21.
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Old 26-06-2019, 07:49
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-26 08:30 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, departing from the updated local highs of March 21. The decline in the European currency was largely technical in nature since the macroeconomic background from the USA remained ambiguous and there was little interesting data from Europe. Sales of new houses in the United States in May decreased significantly (by 7.8% MoM after falling by 3.7% MoM last month). Analysts had expected growth by 1.9% MoM. At the same time, the housing price index in April rose from 0.1% MoM to 0.4% MoM, which turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.2% MoM. Today, the instrument continues to trade within a downtrend. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the presentation of the ECB representative Yves Mersch, as well as statistics on consumer confidence in Germany. The United States will publish the dynamics of orders for durable goods.

GBP/USD

The pound fell markedly against the US dollar on Tuesday, stopping the uptrend which developed since June 18. Uncertainty around Brexit continues to exert pressure on the British currency. In the light of the forthcoming elections of the Prime Minister, the issue of leaving the UK from the EU without an agreement is being discussed more and more and scares investors with additional risks for the British and world economy. Additional pressure on the pound on Tuesday was put by the published CBI report on retail. In June, sales fell sharply by 42% MoM after falling by 27% MoM last month. Analysts had expected an improvement in the dynamics and a decline in the indicator only by 10% MoM. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. The focus of attention on Wednesday is the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney at the hearing of the report on inflation in Parliament.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar maintains a fairly confident upward trend against the US one in the short term. The demand for safe assets in the market is still increasing, as the factors of growing concern remain in place. Investors are frightened by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and assess the chances of an armed clash between the United States and Iran. Also, traders are waiting for the start of the G20 summit in Japan, within which US President Donald Trump should hold a meeting with PRC President Xi Jinping. Disruption of the negotiations will put additional pressure on USD.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen on June 25, having managed to update the local minima of the beginning of the year. The reason for the emergence of such dynamics were the publication of the minutes of the BoJ meeting and uncertain statistics on the construction market in the United States. Regulator's protocols have once again confirmed the course for a soft monetary policy, which can remain unchanged at least until spring 2020. Today, the dollar is trading within an uptrend, which is due to investors fixing a short profit in the Japanese currency. On Wednesday, there would be no interesting statistics from Japan, so the US data will be in the spotlight.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on June 25, which was caused by a weaker dollar and a published API report on oil reserves. According to the report, over the week of June 21, the volume of oil reserves in US warehouses decreased by a confident 7.550 million barrels, which is significantly stronger than the decline of 0.812 million over the previous period. Quotes are also supported by growing tensions between the USA and Iran after Donald Trump's administration introduced new sanctions against the leadership of Tehran on Monday. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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Old 27-06-2019, 08:03
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Morning Market Review
2019-06-27 08:38 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency did not change much against the US dollar on June 26 but managed to keep a generally "bearish" mood. Today, the instrument is gradually returning to sales, but market activity remains moderate, and investors expect new drivers to appear. The focus is on a large block of statistics from Europe. Investors, in particular, will be interested in data on consumer inflation in Germany for June. According to preliminary forecasts, the consumer price index may slow down in June from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM and maintain annual growth rates at the previous values of 1.4% YoY. In addition to statistics on inflation, the Eurozone will publish a block of indices on business sentiment for June. With the opening of the American session, attention will be switched to the publication of updated annual data on US GDP for Q1.

GBP/USD

The British currency showed a slight increase against the US dollar on June 26, partially compensating a steady decline the previous day. There were no noticeable reasons for the pound strengthening, so the growth was largely technical. Investors were focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. He noted that recently the risks associated with the "tough" Brexit scenario have increased significantly. At the moment, the regulator's forecasts do not take this scenario into account, so they can be revised as the next Brexit deadline approaches. Published macroeconomic statistics from the UK had no significant support for the pound. The number of approved mortgage loans from BBA in June decreased from 42.898K to 42.384K, which was worse than the average market expectations.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed quite active growth against the US one on Wednesday, updating local highs of June 10. The further development of the upward dynamics is due to the weak positions of USD, as well as some investor enthusiasm regarding the upcoming meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the delegations of two countries managed to achieve significant progress on controversial trade issues, therefore, with high probability, the parties will be able to come to some mutually beneficial compromise. Recall that China remains one of the main trading partners for Australia with its export-oriented economy. The Australian economy reacts negatively to the slowdown in China's industrial activity. Analysts also fear new US import duties and trade barriers.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose strongly against the yen on June 26, departing from local minima updated the day before. The American currency was supported by increased expectations of a favorable outcome of the planned meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the G20 summit, which will be held at the end of the week. Minor support for the dollar is also provided by the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who did not focus on the prospects for lowering the interest rate during the July meeting, but noted that the regulator will not react to any political pressure. Today, the instrument continues to develop upward dynamics, despite the publication of optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Retail sales in May increased by 0.3% MoM and 1.2% YoY after a decline of 0.1% MoM and growth by 0.4% YoY last month. Analysts had expected the negative dynamics to worsen to -0.6% MoM. The indicator of retail sales in large stores in May decreased by 0.5% MoM, having improved from the previous value of -1.8% MoM with a forecast of -1.2% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, marking new local highs since May 30. Quotes were supported by the API report, which reflected a sharp decline in US oil reserves amid an accident at a major refinery. The published data on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy differed noticeably from the API data and reflected a decline in reserves for the week of June 21 by 12.788 million barrels, with a forecast of a decline of only 2.540 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.200 million to 12.100 million barrels per day.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:48
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-01 08:25 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on June 28. Investors didn't want to open new positions at the end of the week amid the passing G20 summit, at which, in particular, a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was awaited. The negotiations ended quite positively. Trump noted that they were "better than expected" and encouraged the markets with optimistic forecasts for the final deal between the countries. In the meantime, the United States decided not to introduce new import duties and allowed American companies to deal with Huawei if this does not pose a threat to the security of the USA. Moderate support for the euro on Friday was provided by preliminary data on consumer inflation. In June, the core consumer price index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.1% YoY, with a forecast of growth to 1.0% YoY. At the start of the week, European statistics on consumer lending and unemployment for May is expected.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Friday, offsetting a moderate decline in the instrument the day before. Investors were focused on statistics on the dynamics of the UK GDP for Q1. As expected, the indicator showed an increase of 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. At the same time, the volume of commercial investments in the economy continued to decline. QoQ, the indicator rose by 0.4% after rising by 0.5%. YoY, it decreased by 1.5% after a drop of 1.4% earlier. The UK current account deficit in Q1 reached 30.045 billion pounds, which, however, was better than the forecast of 32.00 billion pounds. Investors today are focused on a block of statistics from the UK on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the dynamics of consumer lending in May.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar ended the week with steady growth against the US currency, noting new local highs since May 8. The reason for the growth of the instrument on Friday was the positive expectations of a successful outcome of the US-China negotiations at the G20 summit sites, which were partially justified. The parties agreed to continue trade negotiations, but for now, the USA decided not to introduce new import duties and lifted some restrictions for cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei. Published Chinese statistics once again reminded investors of the existing problems. The NBS data on the manufacturing sector in June did not show the expected growth from the level of 49.4 points. In the service sector, the indicator dropped from 54.3 to 54.2 points, while the forecast was 54.5 points. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI declined from 50.2 to 49.4 points, breaking down the level separating growth from stagnation.

USD/JPY

On July 1, the US dollar opened with a positive gap against the Japanese yen. The US currency is supported by the results of the negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to prevent a further escalation of the trade conflict. However, analysts believe that the growth of the US currency will be only short-lived since the final agreement is still far enough from signing. In addition, now the attention of investors will switch to a possible reduction in the interest rate by the Fed during the July meeting. Statistics from Japan released today was ambiguous. The Tankan Services index for Q2 showed a moderate increase from 21 to 23 points with a forecast of a decline to 20 points. At the same time, the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.5 to 49.3 points.

Oil

Oil prices are rising moderately today, recovering from a noticeable correction at the end of last week. Quotes are supported by the OPEC+ meeting, which will start on Monday. Following the meeting, the cartel is expected to decide to extend the existing agreement on the limitation of supplies. Moreover, the agreement can be expanded and supplemented with new mechanisms for regulating supply on the market. At the G20 summit, which took place last weekend in Osaka, Russia managed to negotiate with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal for 6-9 months. The Russian Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak, commenting on this decision, also noted that Russia in June reduced oil production slightly more than it was required by the OPEC+ deal.
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Old 02-07-2019, 06:49
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-02 08:37 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating to June 20 levels. EUR was pressured by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Europe and China, as well as the general correctional sentiment in favor of the dollar, which remained pressured all last week in view of the start of the G20 summit. The summit ended optimistically. Investors enthusiastically greeted the results of the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to prevent another increase in import duties. In addition, the parties agreed to continue full-format trade negotiations, therefore, there's still a possibility of a final trade deal. Today, the pair is trading in a flat. Investors are focused on the statistics on retail sales in Germany in May and the European producer price indices.

GBP/USD

At the beginning of the week, the British pound fell against the US dollar updating local lows of June 20. Traders returned to active sales of the pound amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In addition, as the trade conflict between the USA and China gradually fades, more and more investors are following the uncertain prospects for Brexit. The Markit Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.4 to 48.0 points, with a forecast of a decline to 49.2 points. Consumer lending in May slowed from 0.968 billion to 0.822 billion pounds, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 0.967 billion. The number of approved mortgage applications in May also showed a decline from 66.045 to 65.409 thousand (forecast 65.600K). On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of the Construction PMI, as well as speech by the Bank of England head Mark Carney.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Monday, departing from local highs of May 7. The decline in the instrument was largely technical in nature since it was preceded by a 9-day "bullish" rally of AUD. The instrument was additionally pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. The Australian AiG Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 52.7 to 49.4 points. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 50.2 to 49.4 points, with a forecast of 50.0 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the RBA interest rate decision. As expected, the regulator reduced the rate from 1.25% to 1.00%, explaining that by the need to support inflation and the level of employment.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local highs of June 19. The instrument was supported by positive results of the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who managed to achieve a temporary truce in a trade conflict. The yen was pressured by published macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in June fell from 49.8 to 49.3 points, which turned out to be worse than the expectations of 49.5 points. The consumer confidence index for the same period fell from 39.4 to 38.7 points, against the forecast of growth to 40.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on July 1, although multidirectional dynamics was observed during the day. The quotes are strongly supported by the OPEC decision to extend the existing agreement on limiting oil supplies until March 2020. Thus, Saudi Arabia to some extent ignored the demands of Donald Trump to increase the volume of supplies in order to further reduce prices. On July 2, OPEC will hold talks with non-members that have previously joined the agreement. For example, Russia is also expected to support the cartel, which will provide additional support to quotes. Oon Tuesday, investors are also focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves. Last week, the report showed a sharp decline in stocks of 7.55 million barrels.
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:53
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-03 08:32 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

On July 2, the euro traded in both directions, ending the day session with almost zero results. The reason for the emergence of uncertain dynamics was ambiguous macroeconomic data from Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the aggravation in US-European trade relations. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the "dovish" rhetoric of the ECB, which is considering the possibility of further reducing negative interest rates and expanding the quantitative easing program. However, the latter factor is balanced by the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed interest rate at the July meeting. Statistics from Germany released on Tuesday showed a decline in retail sales in May by 0.6% MoM after a decrease by 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts expected positive dynamics of 0.5% MoM. The Eurozone data indicated a stronger slowdown in industrial inflation. In May, the producer price index slowed from 2.6% YoY to 1.6% YoY, with a forecast of 1.7% YoY.

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the British pound showed a steady decline against the US dollar updating local lows of June 19. Negative macroeconomic statistics from the UK contributed to the development of the negative dynamics of the instrument, which continues to strengthen the negative outlook for the economy against the background of the upcoming Brexit. The house prices index from Nationwide in June showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in May. Analysts were expecting more significant growth of 0.2% MoM. At the same time, the Construction PMI in June fell from 48.6 to 43.1 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 49.3 points. The negative was added by the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who spoke at the annual local government conference in Bournemouth. The speech was almost entirely devoted to the economic risks of trade wars and the threat of a Brexit without a deal.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose against the US one on July 2, having won back part of the losses suffered at the beginning of the week. It is curious that the growth of the instrument proceeded amid the expected decision of the RBA to reduce the interest rate from 1.25% to 1.00%. Moreover, at the accompanying press conference, the head of the regulator Philip Lowe noted that the Bank may take additional measures of stimulation if the economic situation continues to deteriorate. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The focus is on a large block of statistics from Australia. The AiG Services PMI in June fell from 52.5 to 52.2 points. The number of issued construction permits in May grew by 0.7% MoM after a decrease of 3.4% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. Exports in May rose sharply by 4.0% MoM, accelerating from 1.6% MoM in April. In contrast, imports slowed down from 2.3% MoM to 2.0% MoM, which led to a stronger increase in the trade surplus from 4.820 million to 5.745 million AUD.

USD/JPY

The US dollar resumed a steady decline against the yen amid the next increase in demand for safe assets. After reaching some truce in the US-China trade dispute, investor attention shifted to the aggravation of trade relations between the United States and Europe. Yesterday, the administration of Donald Trump has published an updated list of European goods, which may be imposed higher import duties. However, the market is not yet prone to negativity, since no ultimatums have been put forward. Statistics from Japan released today provided moderate support to the yen. In June, the Markit Services PMI rose from 51.7 to 51.9 points, which did not reach the forecast of 52.0 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a steady decline on Tuesday, responding to the rising risks of a further slowdown in the global economy. In turn, moderate support for the quotes was provided by the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, following which the cartel was able to agree to extend the current agreement on supplies restriction for another 9 months. The published API report on oil reserves has also contributed to price increases. For the week of June 28, oil reserves in the USA decreased by 5.00 million barrels after a decrease of 7.55 million over the previous period. On July 3, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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  #823  
Old 04-07-2019, 07:22
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-04 08:17 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of June 20. The support came from good macroeconomic statistics. The Markit Services PMI in June rose from 52.9 to 53.6 points, while the forecast was for growth to 53.4 points. The Composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 51.8 to 52.2 points, which also turned out to be better than forecast (52.1 points). Another factor supporting the euro remains the likelihood of lowering interest rates by the Fed as early as the July meeting. In addition, US President Donald Trump continues to exert strong pressure on the regulator, openly calling for the devaluation of the dollar. Today, EUR is correcting. Investors are focused on a block of European statistics on retail sales for May, as well as a speech by ECB representative Philip Lane and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

The pound finished Wednesday with a moderate decline against the US dollar, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The British currency continued to be pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In May, the BRC retail price index showed a decline of 0.1% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY last month. The Markit Services PMI in June fell from 51.0 to 50.2 points, while investors did not expect any changes. Today, the attention of the market has shifted to data from the USA, which turned out to be ambiguous. Among the negative aspects, one can note the decline in production orders in May by 0.7% MoM after a decrease by 1.2% MoM and a slowdown in the ISM Services PMI in June from 56.9 to 55.1 points with a forecast of 55.9 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened against the US one since July 2, updating local highs of May 7. The instrument is growing against the background of the publication of a rather uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Also, it is supported by the prospect of a Fed rate cut in July and the overall pressure that Donald Trump puts on the regulator. The improvement in the US-China trade relations also helps AUD, which counts on the growth of Chinese production. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. The published statistics on retail sales from Australia in May provides little support. The indicator rose by 0.1% MoM after falling by 0.1% MoM last month but did not reach the forecast (0.2%). US markets are closed on Thursday to celebrate Independence Day.

USD/JPY

The US dollar remains pressured against the Japanese yen, trading mostly in a downtrend after the update of local maxima at the beginning of the week. The ADP Employment Report published yesterday had a moderate pressure on the dollar. In June, the report reflected the growth of new jobs in the private sector by 102K versus 41K last month. The analysts suggested an increase in employment of 140K. Initial jobless claims for the week of June 28 decreased from 229K to 221K, with a forecast of 223K. Continuous jobless claims also fell, from 1.694 to 1.686 million (forecast 1.675 million). Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. Low investor activity is caused by closed US markets on the occasion of Independence Day. Moderate support for the yen is provided by investment performance. The volume of foreign investment rose by 58.5 billion Japanese yen after a decrease of 313.3 billion over the past period. Investments in foreign bonds rose by 514.3 billion yen after rising by 497.8 billion.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on July 3, partially recovering from a sharp decline on Tuesday. Quotes continued to be supported by the positive results of the OPEC+ meeting, at which it was decided to extend the existing agreement to restrict supplies for another 9 months. The growth was also supported by the API report on oil reserves, published on Tuesday, which indicated a reduction by 5 million barrels. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published a report, which failed to meet expectations. For the week of June 28, according to EIA, oil reserves fell by only 1.085 million barrels after a decline of a record 12.788 million for the last period. The report also reflected growth in US oil production from 12,100 to 12,200 million barrels per day.
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Old 05-07-2019, 07:11
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-05 08:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a slight increase against the US dollar on July 4, offsetting a decrease in the instrument the day before. The market activity on Thursday remained reduced, as the US exchanges were closed due to the celebration of Independence Day. Investors were focused on retail sales in the Eurozone. In May, sales fell again by 0.3% MoM after falling by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 0.3% MoM. YoY, sales slowed from 1.8% to 1.3%, while the forecast was 1.6%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. Investors are focused on the June report on the US labor market. The number of new non-farm jobs is expected to increase from 75K to 160K, which should provide substantial support for the dollar.

GBP/USD

The pound slightly strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday, interrupting the development of the "bearish" trend since July 1. The growth of the British currency was facilitated by the closed US markets on the occasion of the national holiday, while the macroeconomic background remained ambiguous. In addition, investors are increasingly worried about the exacerbation of the situation around Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May said that the current stalemate is a serious problem for the whole kingdom. The solution of the border issue with Northern Ireland was never found, and now, after May’s resignation, her successor will have to deal with its decision. There's little hope that this can be done within the allotted timeframe, therefore, markets are more often discussing the prospects of a "tough" Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on July 4. Traders adjusted their positions on the instrument in anticipation of the publication of the US labor market report. In particular, if the report turns out to be weak, this could serve as another powerful signal for the Fed to lower the interest rate at the July meeting. Otherwise, there may be some relaxation from the regulator. Today, the Australian dollar is moderately supported by the published Construction PMI In June, the indicator rose from 40.4 to 43.0 points, which turned out to be better than the average forecast.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows a flat trend against the Japanese yen, slightly correcting after a noticeable decline on July 2-3. Today, the dollar is trading in an uptrend, awaiting the publication of an important report on the labor market for June. More confident growth is hampered by good macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Household spending increased by 4.0% YoY in May, after rising by 1.3% YoY in April. Investors expected a slightly more modest acceleration of positive dynamics, up to 1.6% YoY. The index of coincident indicators, according to preliminary estimates for May, showed an increase from 102.1 to 103.2 points with a forecast of 95.5 points. However, the leading indicators index was worse than expected. In May, it dropped from 95.9 to 95.2 points, while investors expected a decline only to 95.7 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate decline on July 4, returning to the negative trend after growth on Wednesday. The "bearish" dynamics was supported by previously published data from the US Department of Energy, which did not meet market expectations about reducing the volume of stocks of petroleum products. In addition, the report reflected a moderate increase in production volumes. Today, in addition to the June report on the US labor market, investors are also awaiting the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms.
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Old 08-07-2019, 07:18
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-08 08:24 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro fell significantly against the US dollar updating local lows of June 19. The reason for the emergence of a confident downward dynamics were strong data on the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls in June increased by a record 224K after growth by 72K last month. Analysts had expected an acceleration of positive dynamics only by 160K, which seemed to be a very optimistic estimate. The unemployment rate in June rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, while the average hourly wage did not change from the previous 3.1% YoY. The euro was pressured by German data. The production orders in May decreased by 2.2% MoM and 8.6% YoY, which was significantly worse than the expected values of –0.1% MoM and −5.7% YoY. Today, investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic statistics from Germany on the industrial output and the trade balance for May.

GBP/USD

The British pound closed last week with a confident decline against the US dollar. The growth of "bearish" activity was connected to unexpectedly strong employment data in the June report on the US labor market. Instead of the planned 160K, the US economy added 224K of nonfarm payrolls, which heightened hopes of abandoning the interest rate cut during the July meeting of the Fed. However, in the monetary policy report, the regulator will point out a slowdown in GDP growth, despite rising consumption and some positive trends in the labor market. The wording remains the same and the Fed promises to act "according to the situation". Published on Friday, macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom was ambiguous. The Halifax home price index in June fell by 0.3% MoM after growth of 0.4% MoM in May. Analysts were expecting a decline of −0.2% MoM.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar dropped significantly against the US one at the end of last week, interrupting another growth attempt and returning to the levels of the beginning of the month. This market reaction was caused by the publication of strong data on employment in the US, which strengthened the arguments in favor of maintaining the Fed's current monetary policy. The Australian dollar remains pressured amid the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations, but the macroeconomic statistics from Australia provides moderate support to the instrument. On Friday, investors were optimistic about the data on the AiG Construction PMI. In June, the index rose from 40.4 to 43.0 points, above market expectations. Today, the instrument is supported by data on the number of vacancies. In June, the ANZ index showed a steady growth of 4.6% MoM after a decrease of 8.2% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local highs of June 18. At the end of the week, confident support for the US currency was provided by data on the US labor market for June, which reflected a sharp increase in nonfarm payrolls by 224K (with a forecast of 160K). At the same time, the report indicated an increase in unemployment and a slowdown in the average hourly wage MoM in June. Published on Friday, macroeconomic statistics from Japan was ambiguous. The index of coincident indicators in May rose from 102.1 to 103.2 points, while the index of leading indicators decreased from 95.9 to 95.2 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The yen is pressured by mixed macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Bank lending slowed in June from 2.6% to 2.3% YoY, while the forecast was 2.8% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in May fell by 7.8% MoM after a growth of 5.2% MoM last month.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on July 5, despite the general strengthening of the dollar. Quotes are supported by growing tensions around Iran, as well as by the OPEC+ decision to extend the agreement on limiting oil supplies for another 9 months. In addition, investors are optimistic about the resumption of the US-China trade negotiations this week, counting on signals on the industrial activity increase in China.
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  #826  
Old 09-07-2019, 06:28
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-09 08:22 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on July 8, continuing the development of a strong "bearish" impulse formed at the end of last week. The euro reacted by sharp sales after the publication of the report on the US labor market, which indicated a much stronger increase in the number of new jobs than analysts had expected. The report also reflected the growth of the unemployment rate and a slight slowdown in wages growth. The market expects strong labor market data to help the Fed wait. Some analysts believe that the regulator will abandon the idea of lowering the interest rate during the July meeting. On Monday, investors were focused on German data on the industrial output and the trade balance for May. The industrial output showed an increase of 0.3% MoM after a decrease of 2.0% MoM last month. However, YoY, the dynamics deteriorated markedly: −3.7% vs previous −2.3%. Germany’s trade balance in May rose from 16.9 to 18.7 billion euros, which was slightly better than expected.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US dollar on Monday, but it did not lead to an update in local lows. The instrument is still pressured by the publication of the June report on the US labor market. On Monday, the news background remained moderate, so investors continued to play on the same drivers. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. Published statistics from the UK on retail sales does not allow the pound to show corrective growth, but investors are gradually fixing short positions. The volume of comparable sales from BRC in June fell again by 1.6% YoY after a decrease of 3.0% YoY a month earlier. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.8% YoY. Market activity will begin to grow noticeably on July 10, when a large block of statistics on industrial output, trade balance, and adjusted GDP dynamics will be released in the UK.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar tried to show corrective growth against the US one at the beginning of the week but returned to the downward trend and today resumed its active decline. Investors are still focused on the June report on the US labor market, which has noticeably confused the Fed’s plans to ease monetary policy. The instrument is also pressured by the newly launched process of the US-China trade negotiations, which may end with the signing of a final agreement. Today, investors are focused on business sentiment statistics from the National Australia Bank. The NAB index of business confidence in June fell sharply from 7 to 2 points, which, however, was not surprising. The index of business conditions for the same period increased from 1 to 3 points, which also coincided with market expectations.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continued to grow noticeably against the Japanese yen yesterday, updating local highs of May 31. Additional pressure on the yen came from Japanese macroeconomic statistics. Bank lending slowed in June from 2.6% to 2.3% YoY, while the forecast was 2.8% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in May fell by 7.8% MoM after a growth of 5.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the decline only by 4.7% MoM. In annual terms, orders decreased by 3.7% in May against an increase of 2.5% in April. The Eco Watchers current index in June fell from 44.1 to 44.0 points, against the forecasts of growth to 45.0 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on July 8, but could not stay at the updated highs and returned to the red zone by the end of the day session. Quotes are supported by the growth of tension around Iran, as well as the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations. On Monday, Iran threatened to resume work on the enrichment of uranium, which was suspended under the 2015 agreement. Because of the US sanctions, Iran has actually lost all the benefits that it received as part of the agreement. It is likely that the resumption of nuclear activities will lead to a new deterioration of relations between Washington and Tehran. Today, investors will focus on the API report on oil reserves. The previous report reflected a sharp reduction in reserves by 5 million barrels, which was later not confirmed by the publication of an official report from the US Department of Energy.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:40
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-10 08:25 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro continued a decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of June 19. The single currency is pressured by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Europe, as well as a fairly optimistic mood on the dollar. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had a speech, which was devoted to the problem of banks reliability and stress tests program. His speech on July 10 will be much more important since it will be devoted to the problems of monetary policy. Some analysts believe that, given the latest report on the US labor market, the Fed will try to take a wait-and-see attitude and refuse to cut rates during the July meeting. In addition, on Wednesday the ECB meeting is expected and the publication of the FOMC minutes.

GBP/USD

The pound declined markedly against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of January 3. The "bearish" dynamics was facilitated by the uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In June, the BRC retail price index again showed a decline of 1.6% YoY after declining by 3.0% YoY last month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics of 0.8% YoY. On July 10, the market expects the publication of a large block of statistics from the UK. Among other things, investors are focused on the dynamics of industrial output in May, GDP growth rates in May (and the forecast for June), as well as the trade balance. In the USA, the focus of attention will be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to develop a downward trend against the US one, updating local lows of June 21. "Bearish" sentiment is supported by the strengthening of USD amid a possible refusal of the Fed to reduce interest rates during the July meeting. The last report on the US labor market, which reflected a sharp increase in the level of employment, may be the reason for the regulator to do this, although it also showed an increase in the unemployment and a slowdown in wage growth. Today, the instrument continues to trade within a downtrend. AUD is pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in July showed a decline of 4.1% MoM after declining by 0.6% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow moderately against the Japanese yen, as interest in risk remains on the market. Investors await possible signals from the Fed to maintain a waiting position amid the publication of a strong report on the US labor market. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan exerts additional pressure on the yen. Yesterday, traders were disappointed with the preliminary data on the demand for machine-building products and equipment. In June, the indicator dropped sharply by 38.0% YoY after a decline of 27.3% YoY a month earlier. Today, the yen is pressured by an index of domestic prices for corporate goods. In June, the indicator decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.1% YoY, whereas investors expected –0.3% MoM and +0.3% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on July 9, as investors concentrated on growing tensions in the Middle East. Additional support for quotes is still provided by the decision of OPEC+ to extend the agreement to restrict production for another 9 months. A powerful "bullish" signal was the API report on oil reserves published yesterday. For the week of July 5, stocks fell sharply by 8.129 million barrels after declining by 5.000 million over the past period. However, the previous API report was significantly different from the data of the Department of Energy, so investors still prefer to wait for the publication of official data.
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  #828  
Old 11-07-2019, 07:35
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-11 08:36 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on July 10, recovering the losses of the last three trading sessions. The reason for the emergence of a strong "bullish" dynamics was the correction of the dollar in response to the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell pointed to the growing uncertainty in the prospects for the American economy, which is deteriorating under the influence of internal and external factors. Investment in the business, according to Powell, continues to decline, which poses a threat of a further slowdown in economic growth. The regulator's head did not name any exact dates for further stimulation, but the market believed in a rate cut of 25 basis points during the meeting on July 30-31. Moreover, a number of analysts believe that the Fed may decide on a stronger reduction in the rate, by 50 basis points at once. Today, the pair is also trading in an uptrend. Investors are focused on statistics on consumer inflation in Germany and France, as well as the publication of information about the latest ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The pound showed the development of correctional dynamics against the US dollar on July 10. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by a decline in the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who focused on the negative aspects in the American economy, which prompted investors to return to the idea of the Fed lowering the interest rate during the July meeting. Published macroeconomic statistics from the UK was moderately optimistic. Industrial output in May showed an increase of 1.4% MoM after a decline of 2.9% MoM, which was slightly worse than forecasts of 1.5% MoM. YoY, production grew by 0.9% after declining by 1.1% in April. The experts were expecting 1.1% YoY. GDP in May rose by 0.3% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. But the NIESR assessment of GDP in June was negative: −0.1% against 0.3%.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar returned to a positive trend against the US one, having received support after the speech of Fed Chairman, which increased the risks of a rate cut during the meeting on July 30-31. AUD also ignored weak macroeconomic publications from Australia. Westpac consumer confidence index in July showed a decline of 4.1% MoM after declining by 0.6% MoM last month. Today, the instrument maintains upward dynamics. Moderate support for the "Australian" provides data on the dynamics of mortgage loans. In May, the indicator reached the zero level after a decline of 0.9% MoM in April. Analysts were expecting a decline of 0.6% MoM. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in May declined by 1.7% MoM after declining by 2.2% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell markedly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics was a sharp increase in the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed's interest rate during the meeting of July 30-31 amid the "dovish" rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. More active growth of the instrument was hampered by the aggravation of the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea. Today, there is also a negative trend, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Services PMI in Japan fell by 0.2% MoM in June after rising by 0.8% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of only 0.1% MoM. In turn, the rate of foreign investment in Japanese bonds supported the yen. For the week of July 5, the volume of investment rose from 58.5 to 192.2 billion JPY.

Oil

Oil prices rose sharply on July 10, updating local highs since the beginning of June. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by the large-scale weakening of the dollar after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In addition, the quotes were strongly supported by a published EIA report. For the week of July 5, the oil stocks decreased by 9.5 million barrels, which turned out to be significantly more than the expected reduction of 3.567 million. Meanwhile, oil production in the USA increased again from 12.200 to 12.300 million barrels per day.
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  #829  
Old 12-07-2019, 06:59
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-12 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Thursday, having managed to update the local maxima of July 5. The European currency was supported by published macroeconomic statistics from Germany. The harmonized consumer price index in June rose by 0.3% MoM after rising by 0.1% in May. The index showed an increase of 1.5% YoY, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 1.3%. Information about the ECB meeting on monetary policy of 5-6 June, which was also published yesterday, put moderate pressure on the euro. The protocols reflected the revision of the Eurozone GDP for 2019 up to 1.2% YoY. However, for 2020 and 2021, GDP forecasts were revised down to 1.4% YoY. The regulator also expects current interest rates to remain unchanged at least until the first half of 2020. Today, investors are focused on the publication of May statistics on industrial output in the Eurozone.

GBP/USD

The pound ended Thursday with ambiguous dynamics. Despite the growth during the day, with the opening of the American session, the "bearish" sentiment recovered, which led to the correction and closing of the pair in the red zone. Traders were rather skeptical about the Bank of England financial stability report published on Thursday. However, the document reflected the readiness of the UK financial system to the negative consequences of the "tough" Brexit. But investors were much more interested in the published macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the USA. In June, the consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% MoM and 2.1% YoY, with a forecast of 0.2% MoM and 2.0% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is steadily strengthening against the US dollar, updating local highs since July 5. Published on Thursday, macroeconomic statistics from Australia turned out to be ambiguous, which, however, did not prevent the AUD from maintaining an uptrend. Moreover, investors partially ignored the strong US data on consumer inflation, which increased the likelihood of the Fed keeping the interest rates unchanged in July. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in May declined by 1.7% MoM after declining by 2.2% MoM last month. The volume of mortgage loans in May showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.9% MoM in April.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a decline against the Japanese yen on July 11 but managed to recover by the closing of the day session, having received support from strong consumer inflation data. Moderate support was also provided by data on applications for unemployment benefits. For the week of July 5, the number of initial jobless claims decreased from 222K to 209K, significantly better than the forecast of 223K. Today the instrument is again trading in a downtrend, despite the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. Industrial output in May slowed from 2.3% to 2.2% MoM, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations. YoY, the decline deteriorated from −1.8% to −2.1%. However, the use of production capacity increased from 1.6% to 1.7% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on July 11 but corrected to the opening marks by the end of the day session. Quotes were supported by the closure of a number of oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of the storm. In addition, investors are closely watching the development of tensions in the Middle East after the deterioration of US-Iranian relations. On Friday, investors are focused on Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA.
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Old 15-07-2019, 07:16
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-15 08:22 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro maintains an upward trend against the US dollar. On July 12, the single currency managed to strengthen amid the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Industrial output in May rose by 0.9% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected growth of only 0.2% MoM. The indicator accelerated the decline from −0.4% YoY to −0.5% YoY, which, however, turned out to be significantly better than forecasts of −1.6% YoY. More confidently strengthening of the instrument was hampered by previously published data from Germany. The wholesale price index in June showed a decline of 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. Investors predicted the growth of 0.2% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from 1.6% to 0.3%, which also turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' expectations of 1.3%.

GBP/USD

The pound showed quite an active growth against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of July 5. There were none interesting macroeconomic statistics from the USA and the UK, so the focus was on existing factors. However, investors followed the speech of the representative of the Bank of England Gertjan Vlieghe, who allowed the possibility of a sharp reduction in interest rates by the regulator, if the government fails to approve the agreement on Brexit. Today, the instrument is trading with moderate growth, preparing to update the previous local maxima. Strengthening of the pound is not hampered by weak data from the UK. The Rightmove house price index in June showed a decline of 0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY after rising by 0.3% MoM and 0.0% YoY in May.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US one on Friday, rising to the highs of July 5. The reason for the strengthening of the instrument was the correctional dynamics of the US currency. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China and the United States hampered a more confident growth of the “Australian”. Today, the instrument is supported by strong data from China. Retail sales in June rose by 9.8% YoY after rising by 8.6% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting a slowdown to 8.3% YoY. The industrial output for the same period increased by 6.3% YoY after rising by 5.0% YoY in May. In Q2, China's GDP accelerated from 1.4% QoQ to 1.6% QoQ (with a forecast of 1.5% QoQ).

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local lows of July 5. It is curious that this happened amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In May, industrial output in Japan slowed down from 2.3% MoM to 2.0% MoM. YoY, the decline in production increased from −1.8% to −2.1%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. Japan's markets are closed on Monday to celebrate the Marine Day, so statistics from China and the United States remain in the spotlight. Chinese data on GDP, retail sales, and industrial output were stronger than forecasts, which contributed to the growth of investor interest in risk. With the opening of the American session, investors are awaiting the publication of the index of the July Manufacturing PMI from the New York FRB.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating near local highs, updated at the end of the week. Quotes are supported by a reduction in the production of some US manufacturers in the Gulf of Mexico due to a tropical storm. On the other hand, investors were disappointed with the published report of the International Energy Agency. According to it, further growth in production in the USA will contribute to the growing imbalance of supply and demand in the market. The IEA expects a decline in oil demand by 2020 to a record level since 2003. Additional support for quotes was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA published on Friday. During the week, the number of drilling rigs decreased from 788 to 784 units.
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Old 16-07-2019, 07:30
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-16 08:31 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a negative trend against the US dollar on July 15, departing from local highs, updated on Thursday. On Monday, there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone, so investors concentrated on existing data and releases from China. In the US, only the New York Fed Manufacturing PMI has been published. In July, the figure rose by 4.3 points after falling by 8.6 points in June and with the forecast of growth by only 2.0 points. Today the pair is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. Investors are focused on a block of statistics on business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone from the ZEW Institute. Also, investors are awaiting the publication of data on consumer prices in Italy for June and the Eurozone trade balance for May. The USA will respond by releases on retail sales and industrial output for June. By the end of the daily session, the market expects the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

GBP/USD

The pound fell markedly against the US dollar on Monday. A certain pressure on the British currency was caused by weak statistics on the dynamics of housing prices. The Rightmove house price index in June showed a decline of 0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY after rising by 0.3% MoM and 0.0% YoY in May. An additional negative factor is growing uncertainty around Brexit. In the near future, elections will be held for the new prime minister, who will have to resolve issues of coordinating a deal with the EU. The current deadline implies the Brexit by October 31, and some candidates, for example, Boris Johnson, insist on a "tough" Brexit, if parliament re-blocks the agreement. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the labor market. Also, the speech of the Bank of England's head Mark Carney is expected.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to grow steadily against the US one, updating local highs since July 4. Monday's macroeconomic statistics from China provided strong support to AUD. The data indicated a sharp increase in industrial output in June from 5.0% to 6.3% YoY, with a forecast of 5.2% YoY. China's quarterly GDP accelerated from 1.4% to 1.6% (forecast 1.5% QoQ). YoY, as analysts had expected, GDP slowed down from 6.4% to 6.2%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on the protocol of the RBA meeting of July 2, at which the regulator decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a flat dynamics against the Japanese yen on Monday and today shows a slight growth. There were no data from Japan, as the markets were closed on the occasion of the Marine Day. On Tuesday, there would be also no publications from Japan, so investors will focus on releases from the USA. The focus is on statistics on retail sales and industrial output for June. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak, as well as a number of other Fed representatives, among whom are Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, and Charles Evans.

Oil

Oil prices declined slightly on July 15, responding to the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from China. Quotes are still supported by a high degree of tension in the Middle East, as well as the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations. Chinese data pointed to weak economic growth in annual terms, but also reflected a sharp increase in industrial output, which correlates well with the increase in crude oil imports. Import volumes rose to a record high of 13.07 million barrels per day (by 7.7% YoY). Growth was promoted by the launch of new refineries in China. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of the API report on oil reserves for the week of July 12.
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Old 18-07-2019, 06:59
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-18 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro rose against the US dollar on July 17, recovering from a steady decline the day before, when investors were inspired by strong data on US retail sales. On Wednesday, the macroeconomic background changed noticeably. Traders are optimistic about the data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone. In June, the consumer price index rose by 0.2% MoM and 1.3% YoY, accelerating from the previous values of 0.1% MoM and 1.2% YoY. In June, the base CPI rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM, which turned out to be better than market expectations 0.3% MoM. YoY, the index accelerated from 0.8% to 1.1%, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. The pressure on the dollar is provided by a weak statistics on the US housing market. The change in the number of new living buildings in June fell by 0.9% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM last month. The number of building permits in June decreased by 6.1% MoM after rising by 0.7% MoM in May.

GBP/USD

The pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on July 17, interrupting the development of a strong "bearish" impulse formed the day before. The growth of the instrument was largely technical, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained moderately negative. On Wednesday, investors were focused on a report on consumer and industrial inflation. In June, the consumer price index showed zero dynamics, slowing down from the previous growth of 0.3% MoM. YoY, the inflation continues to remain at the target level of 2%. The producer price index for the same period decreased by 0.1% MoM and grew by 1.6% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of growth by 0.1% MoM and 1.7% YoY. Today, statistics on retail sales, as well as the Bank of England report on the terms of lending for Q2 2019 will be published.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar closed Wednesday trading with ambiguous dynamics against the US currency. The growth of the instrument was due to the publication of weak data on the US housing market, but the generated momentum was not enough for AUD to enter the green zone. In addition, investors were in no hurry to open new positions awaiting the publication of the Australian labor market report for June. Today, the pair shows moderate growth, despite the fact that the report data were ambiguous. The employment rate in June rose by only 0.5K after rising by 45.3K last month. Analysts had expected growth of 10.0K. Full employment rose by 21.1K after rising by 2.4K last month. Part-time employment fell by 20.6K after rising by 39.8K in May. Unemployment, as expected, remained unchanged at 5.2%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar returned to decline against the Japanese yen on July 17, leveling off the results of Tuesday's correctional growth. The development of negative dynamics was supported by the publication of weak statistics on the housing market. In addition, investors are concerned about the possible exacerbation of the US-China trade relations since the ongoing negotiations have not yet led to positive results. The rate of houses construction started in the US in June decreased by 0.9% MoM after a decrease of 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth of 1.9% MoM. The changes in the number of building permits issued was also negative. In June, it collapsed by 6.1% MoM after rising by 0.7% MoM last month. Today, the pair is developing a downward trend. The import and export statistics published in Japan exert certain pressure on the yen. Exports in June fell by 6.7% YoY after falling by 7.8% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a decline of 5.6% YoY. Import volumes collapsed by 5.2% YoY after falling by 1.5% YoY in May.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate decline on July 17, pressured by an ambiguous EIA report. The report reflected a decline in oil reserves for the week of July 12 by 3.11 million barrels, which turned out to be better than the expected decline by 2.69 million barrels. At the same time, the data indicated an increase in the stock of gasoline and distillates, which offset the positive effect of the decrease in crude oil reserves. US production fell from 12,300 to 12,000 million barrels, which, however, was due to the closure of some of the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico because of the storm.
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Old 19-07-2019, 07:00
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-19 08:24 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro rose significantly against the US dollar on Thursday, returning to the local highs of July 15. The single currency was still supported by moderately optimistic data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in June. In addition, investors were noticeably disappointed with the US statistics on the housing market, which turned out to be below market expectations. There was no new data from the Eurozone on Thursday, so the euro developed a correctional dynamics amid the lack of progress in the US-China negotiations. Today, the instrument again trades in both directions with a noticeable predominance of "bearish" sentiment. Investors expect the publication of data on industrial inflation in Germany for June and the statistics on the balance of the current account in the Eurozone in May.

GBP/USD

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar on July 18, returning to the levels of the week's beginning. The pound was strongly supported by data on retail sales in the UK, which lowered concerns about a further slowdown in the British economy (especially in view of a possible "tough" Brexit). In June, retail sales increased by 1.0% MoM after a decline of 0.6% MoM in May. YoY, sales accelerated from 2.2% to 3.8%, which was significantly better than the forecast of 2.6%. Today, investors are noticeably cautious, fearing to develop an upward trend in the instrument. The focus is on data on the dynamics of public sector borrowing in June, as well as the publication of statistics on the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose substantially against the US one on Thursday, updating local highs of April 24. It is curious that AUD has managed to show quite active growth, despite the ambiguous report on the Australian labor market for June. It reflected employment growth for mere 0.5K jobs, while in May the growth was 45.3K. Analysts were expecting growth of 10.0K jobs. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Thursday was moderately optimistic. The secondary jobless for the week on July 5 decreased from 1.728 to 1.686 million, with an expected decrease only to 1.700 million. Initial jobless claims expectedly increased from 208K to 216K. Most of the support for USD currency was provided by the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 0.3 to 21.8 points in July against the forecast of growth to 5 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local lows of June 26. Today, the pair is trading with quite active growth, being influenced by technical factors. Investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic statistics from Japan on consumer inflation, which, however, does not have a noticeable effect on the instrument. The national consumer price index in June showed an increase of 0.7% YoY, which coincided with the previous data and forecasts of experts. In turn, the activity index in all industries in May rose by 0.3% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM last month, while investors expected negative dynamics of −0.2% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trend on July 18, updating monthly local minima. Quotes began to fall amid a sharp decline in US stock exchanges, as well as due to expectations of a quick recovery in production in the Gulf of Mexico after the hurricane last week. The instrument is also pressured by a previously published report from the EIA, which indicated a decrease in crude oil reserves, but also reflected a sharp increase in gasoline and distillate stocks. Investors are also reacting negatively to deadlocked US-China trade negotiations. Apparently, the situation will not change as long as the US authorities do not ease the sanctions on the Chinese company Huawei. On Friday, a Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US is expected.
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  #834  
Old 22-07-2019, 06:58
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-22 08:23 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro fell markedly against the US dollar on July 19, leveling off growth the day before. Technical factors contributed to the weakening of the instrument, while the macroeconomic background remained controversial. On Friday, the euro was pressured by a weak data on production inflation in Germany. In June, the producer price index fell by 0.4% MoM after falling by 0.1% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 1.9% to 1.2%, below market expectations of 1.4%. In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the speech of Fed representative James Bullard, who spoke in favor of a strategy of rapidly lowering interest rates, which would allow avoiding the development of another economic crisis. Investors saw in these words hints of a possible reduction in the interest rate at the end of July. Today, the instrument shows ambiguous dynamic, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Investors are focused on the Bundesbank monthly report, as well as the publication of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June.

GBP/USD

The pound showed a corrective decline against the US dollar on Friday, departing from the local highs updated on July 15. On Friday, the British currency was pressured by disappointing data on the dynamics of public sector borrowing. In June, net borrowing increased from 3.822 to 6.500 billion pounds, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 3.200 billion. The June budget deficit was the most significant in the last 4 years, which is very alarming, considering that the country is on the threshold of Brexit. Investors continue to follow the election of the Prime Minister. According to available data, Boris Johnson is still the leader of the race. The results of the election of the new leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of Great Britain will be known this week.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar retreated from local highs against the US dollar on July 19. The decline of the instrument was technical in nature, while the macroeconomic and news background remained ambiguous. Further growth of the Australian currency is hampered by the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations. Despite the optimistic start, at present, the parties have not been able to achieve any progress, and the market does not seem to really believe in a favorable outcome of the event. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, and AUD expects new drivers to appear on the market.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed growth against the Japanese yen on July 19, departing from local minima updated the day before. The development of upward dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by relatively weak macroeconomic publications from Japan. Investors were disappointed with data that indicated a slowdown in consumer inflation. The Tokyo consumer price index excluding the price of fresh food in June expectedly slowed down from 0.8% YoY to 0.6% YoY. The indicator excluding energy prices, increased by 0.5% YoY, which turned out to be weaker than the forecast of 0.6% YoY. The activity index in all industries in May slowed down from 0.8% MoM to 0.3% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than expectations of −0.2% MoM. Today, the pair continues to develop upward dynamics. At the beginning of the week, investors are focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on July 19, corrected from local minima, updated the day before. Moderate support for quotes was provided by the US reports on the destruction of the Iranian drone in the Gulf of Mexico, which again heightened tensions in the Middle East. Additional support for the prices was provided by speeches of Fed representatives who favored a rapid reduction in interest rates. Finally, the published Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States reflected a reduction in the number of drilling rigs from 784 to 779 units.
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  #835  
Old 23-07-2019, 07:01
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-23 08:26 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on July 22, continuing the development of a strong "bearish" impulse formed on Friday. Monday's macroeconomic background remained insignificant; therefore, investors were still focused on the upcoming meetings of the world central banks. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its meeting. Given the negative macroeconomic statistics and rather gloomy prospects for the world economy, it is likely that the European regulator is announcing a new interest rate cut. However, the likelihood of such an outcome just exceeded 50%, so the intrigue remains. On Tuesday, the market expects the publication of data on bank lending in the Eurozone and preliminary statistics on the level of consumer confidence.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading in a downward trend against the US dollar, developing a correction formed at the end of last week. The pound remains pressured amid uncertain prospects around Brexit. Today we will know the name of the new prime minister, who, following Theresa May, will have to deal with the issue of concluding an agreement with the EU. Chances are high that the new prime minister will be former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, who has previously actively advocated a "tough" Brexit if the EU does not make concessions on the Irish border. On Tuesday, investors are also awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Financial Policy Committee meeting and the CBI report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in July.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Monday, retaining the "bearish" impulse formed at the end of last week. AUD is pressured by a tense situation around the US-China trade negotiations, which again come to a standstill. Investors are also awaiting a Fed meeting at the end of July, which could result in interest rates lowering. The speeches of the official representatives of the regulator at the end of the week provoked a fairly strong correction in favor of USD, and now conversations are about the scale of the upcoming easing, rather than about the fact of the rate cut.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has been rising against the Japanese yen since the end of last week, recovering from local lows of June 26, updated last Thursday. On Monday, investors were focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, who reaffirmed his readiness to resume economic stimulation in the event of further growth in global uncertainty. In addition, Kuroda is ready for additional monetary easing to achieve a target inflation rate of 2%. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. Market participants are waiting for the publication of US macroeconomic statistics. The focus will be on Redbook statistics on retail sales, as well as the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on July 22, closing with almost zero results. Quotes are still supported by growing tensions in the Persian Gulf. Last week, investors reacted violently to the seizure of a British tanker by Iran in response to similar actions by Britain in early July. In turn, the pressure on prices is exerted by a further decline in demand for petroleum products amid a slowdown in global economic growth. Today, in addition to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States, the API report on oil reserves for the week of July 19 is expected. The previous report reflected a decline in stocks by 1.401 million barrels.
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  #836  
Old 24-07-2019, 07:51
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-24 08:24 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed a noticeable decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of May 31. The pressure on EUR was exerted by the negative prospects of Brexit, as well as the statements of US President Donald Trump, who noted that "in trade matters, the EU is worse than China." Investors fear the escalation of the US-EU trade conflict since it is not the first time when Trump is trying to impose additional duties on European goods. Published macroeconomic statistics was ambiguous. Sales in the US secondary housing market in June fell by 1.7% after rising by 2.9% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of only 0.2% MoM. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in July dropped sharply from 3 to −12 points, with the forecast for growth to 5 points. European statistics reflected a slight increase in consumer confidence from −7.2 to −6.6 points, with a constant forecast.

GBP/USD

The pound showed a decline against the US dollar on July 23. The focus was on voting on the candidacy of the leader of the Conservative Party. As expected, former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson won a landslide victory and is now to take the post of prime minister. Markets reacted rather pessimistically since Johnson is known for his tough position on Brexit, which increases the risk of a country leaving the EU without an agreement. Today the pair is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. On Wednesday, data on business activity in the US in July, as well as statistics on the dynamics of approved mortgage loans in the UK in June will be published.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Tuesday and today maintains an active negative trend. Yesterday, AUD was pressured despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics on the US secondary housing market sales. Investors are frightened by the prospects for the development of a new trade conflict involving the USA, this time with the EU. This can negatively affect the world economy, given that the US-China negotiations have not yet led to a positive result. Donald Trump’s statements that he was able to hold a series of successful negotiations with congressmen on the sovereign debt ceiling also provided moderate support to the US dollar. If the decision is approved in Congress, it will allow the US government to work until 2021.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a moderate increase against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local highs of July 17. It is curious that the growth of USD proceeded against the background of the publication of rather weak statistics on the housing market. The yen is still pressured by the uncertain situation around the prospects of monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Minor support for the yen provides Japanese data on Manufacturing PMI. In July, according to preliminary estimates, the figure rose from 49.3 to 49.6 points, which was only 0.1 points worse than expected.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on July 23, despite the fact that "bearish" sentiment prevailed during the day. Quotes were strongly supported by the API report on oil reserves published on Tuesday. For the week of July 19, stocks fell sharply by 10.961 million barrels after declining by 1.401 million over the past period. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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  #837  
Old 25-07-2019, 06:56
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-25 08:23 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro maintains negative dynamics against the US dollar, updating local minima of May 31. EUR is pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics, as well as the strengthening of the dollar amid progress in the US-China trade negotiations. Published yesterday, the European statistics on the business activity was below market expectations. The Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany in July fell from 45.0 to 43.1 points, with the forecast of growth to 45.2 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for the same period decreased from 52.2 to 51.5 point, with a forecast of 52.1 points. The Markit Services PMI fell from 53.6 to 53.3 points, which coincided with the preliminary estimates of experts. Today the pair is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. Investors are focused on the ECB meeting, which is expected to clarify the prospects for a possible easing of monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The pound showed quite active growth against the US dollar on July 24, recovering from a three-day decline. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics were hopes for changes in the situation around Brexit after the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office. The British currency received additional support from the euro, which is weakening amid disappointing macroeconomic statistics on the business activity ahead of the ECB meeting. The US data also proved ambiguous. The Markit Manufacturing PMI in July showed a decline from 50.6 to 50.0 points, while the forecast was 51.0 points. The composite PMI in July showed a slight increase from 51.5 to 51.6 points, not reaching forecasts of 52.1 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is steadily falling against the US currency, updating local minima since July 11. The instrument is pressured by relatively weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, while consumer sentiment on USD is supported by insignificant progress in the US-China trade negotiations. Published yesterday, the data on Australian business activity from Commonwealth Bank reflected the preservation of negative dynamics. The Services PMI in July fell from 52.6 to 51.9 points. The Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.0 to 51.4 points. The composite index, according to preliminary estimates, fell from 52.5 to 51.8 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar, having updated local maxima against the Japanese yen of July 17, tends to horizontal movement. The dollar is pressured by uncertain US macroeconomic statistics, which is to some extent true for the Japanese currency. Published yesterday, statistics from Japan was worse than expected. The Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 49.3 to 49.6 points, with a forecast of 49.7 points. The index of leading indicators in May fell from 95.9 to 94.9 points, contrary to expectations of a decline only to 95.2 points. The exception was the index of coincident indicators, which in May rose from 102.1 to 103.4 points, above the forecast of 103.2 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline July 24, despite the fact that during the day the instrument showed a moderate increase. Confident support for the quotes was provided by the EIA oil reserves report. For the week of July 19, oil and petroleum products in the United States fell sharply by 10.835 million barrels after a decrease of 3.116 million over the previous period. Analysts expected a decrease of −4.011 million. The EIA report almost completely coincided with the API data that appeared the day before. The report also reflected the decline in oil production in the USA from 12.000 million to 11.300 million barrels per day. Additional price support is provided by the continuing tension in the Middle East.
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  #838  
Old 29-07-2019, 07:44
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-29 08:38 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a moderate decline against USD on July 26, approaching the record lows of May 2017, updated the day before. The development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by not the strongest macroeconomic data from Europe. The German Import Price Index in June fell by 1.4% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations (–0.8% MoM and –1.5% YoY). In turn, the data published in the US was able to provide moderate support to USD. Preliminary estimates reflected a slowdown in the US economy in Q2 2019 from +3.1% to +2.1% YoY, which turned out to be somewhat better than market expectations of +1.8% YoY. Pressure on EUR is also exerted by the prospect of another monetary policy easing by the ECB, which is not straightforward yet. It is likely that the regulator will decide on new interest rate reductions only in the first half of 2020.

GBP/USD

GBP declined significantly against USD on Friday, updating local lows of April 2017. British investors are still focused on Boris Johnson's victory in the elections. The new head of the Conservative Party is still engaged in the selection of the government and has not yet noted any concrete steps in the Brexit issue, but the market is very negative. In particular, investors draw attention to the criticism of Johnson by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ireland. During the Asian session on July 29, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. A large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK is planned to be published today. The first in line will be the data on Nationwide House price index. The statistics on BoE Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals in June are also expected to be released.

AUD/USD

AUD closed on Friday with a steady decline against USD, updating local lows of June 21. At the end of last week, there were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia; therefore, the movement of the instrument was largely technical. In turn, the data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2019 contributed to the preservation of the "bearish" dynamics. Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown in the US economy to +1.8% YoY, real data indicated an increase of +2.1% YoY, which may be a signal in favor of maintaining the current monetary policy at the Fed meeting at the end of the month. On Wednesday, July 31, investors are also awaiting the publication of important statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in Australia for Q2 2019.

USD/JPY

USD showed insignificant growth against JPY on Friday, having updated local highs of July 10. The development of ambiguous trading dynamics was promoted by macroeconomic publications from Japan and the USA, as well as the fact of fixing long profits after the rally of the dollar last week. During the Asian session on July 29, the pair is trading in both directions. The focus of investors is on the retail sales data in Japan. In June, sales volumes showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis, after rising by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected the increase of +0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the increase has slowed from +1.3% YoY to +0.5% YoY, with the forecast of +0.2% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics at the end of last week, as the growth of tensions in the Middle East was held back by signals of a slowdown in US economic growth. Despite the fact that Friday's data on US GDP for Q2 2019 turned out to be better than expected (+2.1% YoY against the forecast of +1.8% YoY), the slowdown rate is quite noticeable, therefore one can still expect steps aimed at stimulating the national economy by the Fed. Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the US published last Friday showed moderate support for quotations, indicating a further reduction in the number of drilling rigs from 779 to 776 units.
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  #839  
Old 31-07-2019, 07:37
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Morning Market Review
2019-07-31 08:39 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Tuesday. The controversial macroeconomic releases from Europe contributed to the decline of EUR, while further growth of USD was hampered by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed at its meeting on Wednesday, July 31. Industrial Sentiment in the euro area in July showed a decrease to –7.4 points from –5.6 points last month. Analysts expected a decrease to –7.0 points. Business Climate in the euro area in July fell from 0.17 to –0.12 points, which also turned out to be worse than market forecasts of 0.08 points. The data from France were also disappointing. According to preliminary estimates, French GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.3% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ. French Consumer Spending in June showed a decline of 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. On Wednesday, in addition to the minutes of the Fed meeting, the data on euro area's GDP for Q2 2019 and Consumer Price Index for July are expected.

GBP/USD

GBP showed a decrease against USD on Tuesday, having updated the record lows of March 14, 2017. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument was still able to slightly correct, which was caused by the profit taking before the Fed meeting, at which the interest rate can be reduced by 0.25 or 0.50 points. Minor support for the pound on Wednesday is provided by data on Consumer Confidence in the UK. In July, according to the data from Gfk, the index rose from –13 to –11 points, while the forecast did not suggest changes in the indicator. During the day, investors expect the release of Nationwide Housing Price Index for July.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a moderate decline against USD on Tuesday, having updated local lows of June 19. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, caused by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed and the publication of a number of good macroeconomic data from Australia. Australia's Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 showed an increase of 0.6% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, which was slightly better than market expectations (+0.5% QoQ and +1.5% YoY). In the past quarter the index showed an even more modest growth of +0.0% QoQ and +1.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD ended the session on Tuesday with a moderate decline against JPY, departing from its local highs of July 10. The correction of the instrument proceeded against the background of disappointing macroeconomic data from Japan on industrial production and the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change interest rates, confirming its previous intentions. The Bank of Japan has not announced any new stimulation measures for the national economy. During the Asian session on July 31, the pair is trading in both directions. Minor support to the yen is provided by the Housing Starts indicator in Japan. In June, it showed an increase of 0.3% YoY after a decline of 8.7% YoY last month. Analysts expected a decline of –3.4% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Tuesday, supported by the expectation of lowering the interest rate by the Fed for the first time in 10 years. Moreover, some experts believe that the Fed may decide to cut the rate by 0.50 points, since the economic situation is noticeably worsening, and earlier Donald Trump stated that “a small reduction in the rate will not be enough”. Additional support to prices on Tuesday was provided by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of July 26, the report reflected a decrease in stocks by 6.024 million barrels after a record decline of 10.961 million barrels for the previous period. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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  #840  
Old 01-08-2019, 07:17
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Morning Market Review
2019-08-01 08:57 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a steady decline against USD on Wednesday updating record lows of May 2017. The instrument was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. According to preliminary estimates, euro area's GDP in Q2 2019 slowed down from +0.4% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which coincided with market expectations. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +1.2% YoY to +1.1% YoY, which turned out to be better than the forecast. Preliminary data on consumer inflation were also disappointed. In July, the Core Consumer Price Index slowed down from +1.1% YoY to +0.9% YoY against the forecast of +1.0% YoY. With the opening of the US session and the publication of the Fed’s decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25 points, the instrument managed to partially recoup; however, during the Asian session on August 1, the market again has strong "bearish" sentiment.

GBP/USD

GBP showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Wednesday, interrupting the development of a confident downward rally, which brought the instrument to record lows of March 2017. GBP was supported by the expectation of a decrease in the interest rate by the Fed, which was fully justified. The US regulator lowered the rate by 0.25 points, as expected by most experts, while already halting the balance reduction (previously this process was supposed to be completed in September). During the Asian session on August 1, the instrument is trading downwards, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. On Thursday, investors are focused on the Bank of England decision on interest rates and comments by the head of the British regulator Mark Carney. No changes in the monetary policy are expected from the Bank of England, since it is obvious that the regulator will take a wait and see attitude in anticipation of the next Brexit deadline.

AUD/USD

AUD fell significantly against USD on Wednesday, continuing to develop a confident downtrend since July 19. However, during yesterday's Asian session, the instrument showed moderate growth caused by the publication of strong statistics on consumer inflation. The Consumer Price Index in Q2 2019 rose by 0.6% QoQ after zero dynamics in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% QoQ. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from +1.3% to +1.6%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by Australia's Manufacturing PMI. In July, according to data from Commonwealth Bank, the index exceeded expectations of 51.4 points and amounted to 51.6 points. Additional support was provided by Chinese statistics. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in July rose from 49.4 to 49.9 points, exceeding the forecast of 49.6 points.

USD/JPY

USD showed moderate growth against JPY on Wednesday, updating other local highs. The growth of the instrument was not impeded by the fact that the Fed cut interest rates, or by the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from the US. As expected, the regulator lowered the interest rate by 0.25 points and announced the suspension of the balance reduction program from the beginning of August. Published data indicated a sharp decline in Chicago's PMI in July from 49.7 to 44.4 points with a forecast of 50.6 points. At the same time, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report in July reflected a steady increase of 156K jobs with an increase of 112K last month. Analysts expected a growth of 150K. On Friday, investors are awaiting the publication of the July report on the US labor market.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Wednesday, retreating from updated local highs of July 17. The decrease in the interest rate by the Fed by 0.25 points did not provide significant support to the instrument, since the market had already taken a similar outcome into account. At the same time, during the day, oil was supported by the API report published the day before and the EIA report released on Wednesday. A report from the Department of Energy indicated a decrease in US oil inventories by 8.496 million barrels after a decrease of 10.835 million barrels over the past period. Analysts expected a much more modest reduction of 2.588 million barrels. At the same time, the report also reflected an increase in oil production in the United States from 11.300 to 12.200 million barrels per day.
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