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  #1241  
Old 30-03-2021, 07:44
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XAU/USD: active downtrend

Current trend

Gold prices show active downtrend during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed yesterday.

On Monday, quotations of the asset fell by more than 1%, responding to the further strengthening of USD, as well as amid expectations of a further recovery in the global economy. The development of the downtrend for the instrument was also facilitated by technical factors of profit fixation at the end of the month.

At the same time, investors are cautious against the backdrop of an extremely alarming epidemiological situation in Europe. The largest economies in the region (Germany and France) are close to another tightening of restrictive measures, as the incidence rate is growing rapidly. All this is taking place against the background of low rates of vaccination of the population, as many European countries have suspended the use of the drug from AstraZeneca due to reports that it can cause thrombosis.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the surge of the "bearish" sentiment at the moment. MACD reversed into a descending plane, having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1720.00, 1741.02, 1753.57, 1769.59.
Support levels: 1703.07, 1687.15, 1675.00, 1660.15.



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  #1242  
Old 31-03-2021, 07:59
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GBP/USD: downward trend

Current trend

GBP is declining against USD in trading this morning session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed at the beginning of this week.

Investors are actively buying USD amid growing yields on US bonds and are responding positively to the pace of vaccination, which allows them to hope that most of the quarantine restrictions will be lifted soon. However, given the current crisis in the incidence rate in Europe, not all analysts are so optimistic. There is an opinion that a too fast economic recovery and the abandonment of most of the restrictive measures could lead the USA to a third wave of coronavirus, which judging by European indicators will not be weaker than the first two. The same can be said about the UK, where the rate of vaccination of the population is one of the highest to date.

Today, investors are focused on the updated statistics on the UK GDP for Q4 2020, as well as the March data on Nationwide Housing Prices.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards again after a brief increase last week. The current showings of the indicator do not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3760, 1.3800, 1.3857, 1.3924.
Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3600.



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  #1243  
Old 01-04-2021, 07:37
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USD/CHF: updating record highs

Current trend

USD has shown moderate gains against CHF during today's Asian trading session, updating record highs since mid-July 2020. Market activity is gradually declining, given the upcoming Easter holidays, but investors are awaiting the publication of the US labor market report for March, which will take place on Friday. Market forecasts suggest a marked increase in the number of new jobs created by the US economy outside the agricultural sector. The unemployment rate may also decline and reach 6%.

Today the focus of investors will be on the statistics on business activity in the US and Switzerland in March, which will help assess the prospects for economic recovery.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is still in close proximity to its highs, signaling strongly overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear.

Resistance levels: 0.9466, 0.9500, 0.9540.
Support levels: 0.9417, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250.



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  #1244  
Old 02-04-2021, 07:54
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GBP/USD: updating weekly highs

Current trend

GBP is marginally strengthening against USD in today's morning session, ending the week at new local highs since March 23.

Market activity remains rather low due to the Easter holidays. Investors' interest is fueled only by the forthcoming publication of data on the US labor market for March. After an impressive report on private sector employment from ADP, investor optimism increased markedly, although the overall picture was smoothed by statistics on jobless claims. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 26 increased from 658K to 719K, which turned out to be worse than the market forecasts of growth to 680K. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 19 decreased from 3.84M to 3.794M, while forecasts assumed a decrease in the indicator to 3.775M.

GBP positions on Thursday were supported by positive macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 57.9 to 58.9 points in March, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecasts of analysts.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3857, 1.3924, 1.4000, 1.4050.
Support levels: 1.3800, 1.3760, 1.3700, 1.3650.



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  #1245  
Old 05-04-2021, 08:18
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USD/JPY: rising incidence of COVID-19 in Japan hurts the yen

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair actively strengthens, trading at the level of 110.65.

The weakening of the yen is due to the epidemiological situation. According to the Japanese Ministry of Health, the number of people infected with new strains of coronavirus is growing rapidly, and carriers of the British and African strains are already present in 34 out of 47 prefectures. Also, the first cases of detection of the Brazilian strain are reported. The government has not yet taken any steps regarding the new quarantine, as the country is undergoing pre-Olympic events that, if introduced, would be in jeopardy.

The US currency is holding at Friday's close levels, with little reaction to the news that the production of the AstraZeneca vaccine at the Baltimore plant has stopped. It was stopped by a personal decree of US President Joe Biden after 15M doses of the vaccine were spoiled at the plant due to a technological error in the manufacturing process. Earlier, the chief infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci has already stated that the United States did not need a vaccine from this manufacturer, and soon its use might stop at all.

Support and resistance

The instrument moves within an uptrend and may rise again after a short-term correction. Technical indicators maintain a global buy signal. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range is quite wide, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moves in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 110.90.
Support levels: 110.30, 109.30.

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  #1246  
Old 06-04-2021, 08:04
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WTI Crude Oil: active decline amid OPEC+ decision

Current trend

The price of North American light oil, WTI Crude Oil, is moving within a corrective trend, trading at 59.30.

The instrument began to actively decline in response to Thursday’s news, when the OPEC+ members decided not to cut production further but, on the contrary, to increase its volumes. The plan, which was being prepared for January, was decided to be implemented now, and thus, energy production in May-June will increase by 350K barrels per knock, and in July – by 441K barrels. Also, Saudi Arabia decided to abandon its project to reduce the oil production, returning to a gradual increase in production volumes, which will rise by 250K in May, by 350K in June, and by 400K barrels per day in July.

The decline in the rate began only now, as on Friday world exchanges were closed due to the holidays, and full-fledged trading started only yesterday. Thus, the likelihood of further weakening remains quite high, despite the current drop in sales volumes.

Support and resistance

Locally, the price decreases within the local sideways channel, trading near the support line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range is directed downward, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 61.60, 66.30.
Support levels: 57.30, 52.50.

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  #1247  
Old 07-04-2021, 05:59
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JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) forms, within which the wave 3 of (5) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the fourth wave iv of 3. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 165.00–170.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 145.53.



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  #1248  
Old 08-04-2021, 07:20
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American Express Co.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 1 of (5) formed, and the correction 2 of (5) ended. Now, the third wave 3 of (5) is developing, within which the local correction iv of 3 has developed, and the formation of the wave v of 3 has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 160.00–170.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.73.



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  #1249  
Old 09-04-2021, 05:33
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XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction developed as the fourth wave (4). Now, the formation of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1877.85–1959.38. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1676.66.



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  #1250  
Old 12-04-2021, 07:14
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WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis

The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (a) of iv has formed, and the wave (b) of iv is developing. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 54.69–50.66. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 63.68.



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  #1251  
Old 13-04-2021, 07:49
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USD/CAD: "bullish" trend development

Current trend

USD is showing moderate growth against CAD, developing a "bullish" signal, formed the day before, when the instrument retreated from its local lows.

Moderate support for USD is provided by the continuing growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the general positive sentiment of investors regarding the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. Only statistics on inflation distorts the overall picture.

In turn, CAD is still supported by a strong report on the Canadian labor market for March published last Friday and reflecting a sharp decline in the unemployment rate in the country from 8.2% to 7.5%, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 8%. The employment change in Canada in March also rose sharply by 303.1K, outstripping the growth rate of the previous month at the level of 259.2K. Market forecasts assumed an increase of only 100K.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range does not change, outlining the approximate boundaries of the short-term flat. MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, after a short decline at the end of last week, is trying to reverse upwards, reflecting the growing buying activity in the ultra- short term.

The development of uptrend is possible in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.2600, 1.2650, 1.2700.
Support levels: 1.2554, 1.2500, 1.2439, 1.2400.

Больше аналитики в блоге компании: https://ru.lite.forex/blog/analysts-opinions/



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  #1252  
Old 14-04-2021, 07:02
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NZD/USD: updating local highs

Current trend

NZD is showing active gains against USD in today’s Asian trading, building on the weak "bullish" momentum it had formed the day before. The pair adds about 0.50% and is about to test the level of 0.7100 for a breakout.

In addition to the weak positions of USD, the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on the interest rate provides moderate support to NZD. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the key interest rate at 0.25%. In the follow-up statement, the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee noted the continued uncertainty in the global economy amid still strong epidemiological risks and existing restrictions on tourism and supply. At the same time, the regulator is very optimistic and its current forecasts for the development of economic activity in the country are not inferior to the February estimates.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into the ascending plane. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" activity at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought NZD in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7200, 0.7250.
Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6954, 0.6913.



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  #1253  
Old 15-04-2021, 08:40
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EUR/USD: vaccination in the EU is again in jeopardy

Current trend

EUR is strengthening against USD, trading at 1.1974, but the positive dynamics is mainly facilitated by weak USD.

Vaccination problems continue in the EU. Following the AstraZeneca Plc., whose supply of the drug was disrupted, and some countries in the eurozone completely limited its use, it became known that the use of the Janssen vaccine from Johnson & Johnson Co. was also temporarily suspended because of the recently identified danger of thrombosis development. The European Medicines Agency is currently conducting analysis of the submitted samples, but there is no official conclusion yet, so a large batch of Janssen was sent to warehouses.

USD continues to decline. The Chair of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, said yesterday that the regulator is considering the possibility of reducing the volume of purchases of government bonds, which is now USD 120B per month, and this will not be related to the course of monetary policy. In other words, the department will reduce purchases of bonds, but at the same time the key interest rate will remain unchanged. Investors were disappointed with this announcement, as the previous rise in USD was associated with hopes for a rate hike.

Support and resistance

On the global chart of the asset, the price continues trading within a wide descending channel. Technical indicators reversed and issued a buy signal. The fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from below, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the purchase area.

Resistance levels: 1.2035, 1.2325.
Support levels: 1.1899, 1.1710.

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  #1254  
Old 16-04-2021, 07:29
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NZD/USD: NZD loses "bullish" momentum

Current trend

NZD is showing ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near its local highs since March 22. The instrument is under pressure from technical factors, as in the last three trading sessions NZD has shown strong growth.

Some support for the pair on Friday was provided by upbeat macroeconomic data from New Zealand and China. Business NZ PMI in March soared from 53.4 to 63.6 points, which turned out to be much better than the negative forecasts of a decline to 51.3 points. China supported the positive sentiment in the market, showing GDP growth in Q1 2021 by an impressive 18.3% YoY after increasing by 6.5% YoY in the previous quarter. However, forecasts assumed an increase of 18.9% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy continues to slow down: in Q1 2021, GDP grew by only 0.6% QoQ, with the forecast of an increase of 1.5% QoQ.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the development of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD indicator is growing keeping a strong buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has reached its highs and currently indicates the risks of a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7250, 0.7305.
Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000.



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  #1255  
Old 19-04-2021, 07:31
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USD/JPY: USD demonstrates downtrend

Current trend

USD is declining against JPY this morning session, developing a fairly strong "bearish" trend in the short term and renewing local lows since March 24. USD expects the emergence of new drivers in the market, but for now it remains under the pressure of the declining yields of Treasury bonds.

In turn, JPY is getting some support after the release of macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Monday. Japanese Exports went up by 16.1% YoY in March after the decline by 4.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 11.6% YoY only. Imports for the same period rose by 5.7% YoY, which turned out to be better than projected by 1.0%, but noticeably weaker than the dynamics of the previous month at the level of 11.8% YoY. Merchandise Trade Balance Total in March increased from JPY 215.9B to JPY 663.7B. Analysts predicted trade balance at JPY 490B.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range narrows slightly from above, but still remains spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having reached the zero level, reversed into a horizontal plane, signaling the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 109.00, 109.37, 109.84, 110.23.
Support levels: 108.54, 108.15, 107.78, 107.42.



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  #1256  
Old Yesterday, 06:17
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PayPal Holdings Inc.: wave analysis

The price may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 3 of (3) formed. Now, a downward correction has developed as the wave 4 of (3), and the development of the wave 5 of (3) has started, within which the wave iii of 5 of the lower level is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 330.00–357.90. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 226.40.



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  #1257  
Old Today, 07:09
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Brent Crude Oil: the instrument develops "bearish" momentum

Current trend

Brent crude oil prices are showing a slight decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before and preparing to test 66.00 for a breakdown. The instrument's positions are under pressure from the alarming situation with the incidence of coronavirus in Asia, while interruptions in the supply of Libyan oil somewhat counterbalance the situation.

The report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves released yesterday did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. For the week ending April 16, published data showed a slight increase by 0.436M barrels after a decline of 3.608M barrels in the previous period.

Today, investors are waiting for the statistics on crude oil stocks from the US EIA. Forecasts assume a further 2.86M barrels decline after a 5.889M barrels decline in the previous period.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show weak growth. The price range is slightly expanded from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD reversed downwards having formed a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its highs, indicating the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 67.00, 68.00, 69.00, 70.00.
Support levels: 66.00, 65.00, 64.00, 63.00.



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