Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday, the pair grew in view of an inconclusive end to China-US trade negotiations and Jerome Powell's ambiguous statements.

The White House only said that the parties exchanged views on how to achieve a balance in economic relations. Chinese representatives called the talks constructive. According to Bloomberg, the next meeting can take place no earlier than November. Speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole has caused mixed reactions from investors. The head of the regulator confirmed that the pace of the US economic growth will remain the same, so the policy of raising interest rates will continue. However, according to Powell, there are no clear signs of inflation growth accelerating above 2.0%. In this regard, investors have doubts that the regulator will go to four rate increases this year. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy is criticized by President Donald Trump and some FOMC members agree with his position. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in an interview with CNBC, stated the expediency of stopping the rate hike since inflationary pressures do not increase.

Support and resistance

Now, the price has risen above the level of 1.1596 (Murrey [7/8]) and can continue rising to 1.1718 (Murrey [8/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands). However, Stochastic's reverse in the overbought zone indicates the probability of a downward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1352 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1352.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 1.1596 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1352 and stop loss at 1.1630.
Buy positions may be opened from 1.1640 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1840 and stop loss at 1.1600.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Quotes are growing and the price of Brent Crude oil rose above 76.56.

Oil is supported by the reduction in the US rigs from 869 to 860 units (according to Baker Hughes), the expectation of a further reduction in oil reserves by API and EIA, and a new US-Mexico trade agreement. On Monday, it became known that the NAFTA would be replaced by a new agreement. US and Mexico were the first to formalize it but Canada is expected to join it soon and, thus, NAFTA will be restored on new terms. It is known that Mexico will expand purchases of food in the US, and will also increase the share of cars produced by workers with wages of at least USD 16 an hour to 45% (to equalize the value of production with US enterprises).

In the evening, the market is waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. If the trend to decline continues (the last time it was 5.17 million barrels), prices may start to grow.

Support and resistance

The quotes are above 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]) and can go up, to 78.12. If the price consolidates below 76.56, correction to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) is possible.

Technical indicators show continued growth: Bollinger Bands diverge, confirming the uptrend, MACD histogram has moved to the positive zone and formed a buy signal, Stochastic is in the overbought zone moving horizontally.

Support levels: 76.56, 75.00, 73.43.
Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.68.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 77.00 with the target at 78.12 and stop loss at 76.60.
Sell positions may be opened below 76.56 with targets at 75.00, 73.43 and stop loss at 76.90.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices are rising and reached a maximum since July at 77.82, supported by yesterday's US statistics. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change reflected the decrease of “black gold” resources by 2.566 million barrels, and gasoline reserves by 1.55 million barrels. The production level stayed at the level of 10.9 million barrels per day. In response, investors are actively purchasing oil futures.

On Friday, market participants will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release. Last week, the number fell to 860 from 869 units. If tomorrow's report reflects the further decrease in the indicator, the instrument will receive substantial support.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators reflect the maintenance of growth potential. There is no sign of correction. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD is stable in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is pointing down, but it does not give a clear reversal signal.

At the level of 78.12 (Murrey [+2/8]), there is a strong support level, from which a reversal and formation of a downward correction are possible. The breakout of the level will let the price grow to the area of ​​79.00–80.00.

Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.00, 80.00.
Support levels: 76.56, 75.00, 73.43.

Trading Tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 78.12 with the targets around ​​79.00 and stop loss at the level of 77.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 77.40 with the targets around ​​76.56 and stop loss at the level of 77.70.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Quotes of the instrument grow amid yesterday's weak data on Canada's GDP.

GDP growth MoM stopped and amounted to 0.0% in July against 0.5% a month earlier. YoY the indicator in Q2 was higher than the previous values and amounted to 2.9%, but an increase of 3.0% was expected. Investors reacted to this by active sales of the Canadian currency, so the rate jumped to the level of 1.3022. CAD is also pressured by the uncertainty of the country's position regarding the trilateral trade deal with the US and Mexico. Canada's accession to the deal looks most likely, but there's no official position of the government on this issue so far. The final decision is expected on Friday.

If Canada agrees to a deal, CAD will receive support, and we will see a decline in the instrument. The refusal will push the quotes even higher.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators on H4 chart generally indicate the preservation of growth potential. Bollinger Bands diverge, indicating an active continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is actively declining in the negative zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic's lines are directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2939, 1.2908.
Resistance levels: 1.3031, 1.3061, 1.3092, 1.3122.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.3031 with targets at the area of 1.3061-1.3092 and stop loss at 1.3010.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.3000 with targets at 1.2970-1.2939 area and the stop loss at 1.3020.

Implementation time: 1 day.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics.EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure

Current trend

EUR showed a significant decline against USD noting a new local low since August 24.

EUR is under pressure of US President Trump’s commentaries and poor inflation statistics. In an interview with Bloomberg Trump said that the EU's proposals on duties on cars are not good enough for the US. Probably, the EU will need new concessions; otherwise, it is possible that the 25% duties on EU-imported cars will be introduced in the US.

Friday’s preliminary August inflation data were poor. The consumer price index fell from 2.1% to 2.0% and the core consumer price index fell from 1.1% to 1.0%.

Today, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released. The indicator is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 54.6 points in August.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is steadily declining, approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with oversold euro.

Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend.

Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1653, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1526, 1.1500, 1.1473.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.1573 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1621. Take profit — 1.1718, 1.1749 or 1.1789. Stop loss — 1.1560 or 1.1750. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

A breakdown of 1.1573 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473. Stop loss — 1.1620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: the price is under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, silver prices declined slightly, renewing a local minimum since August 16. On Monday, the US markets were closed due to the national holiday, so investors fully concentrated on the European and Asian releases.

Monday’s August EU Manufacturing PMI release remained at the same level of 54.6 points. The corresponding German index fell from 56.1 to 55.9 points. The Japanese indicator remained at the same level of 52.5 points, but the Chinese PMI Caixin in August fell from 50.8 to 50.6 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands unfold horizontally. The price range is expanding but still remains uncomfortable for the development of downward trend dynamics. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, approaching its lows, reversed horizontally, reflecting the risks of the corrective silver growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.

It is better to wait until the signals are clear and keep current short positions in the short term for some time.

Resistance levels: 14.48, 14.60, 14.79, 14.89, 15.00.
Support levels: 14.40, 14.24, 14.17.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 14.40 and breakout of the levels of 14.48–14.50 with the targets at 14.70–14.79 and stop loss 14.35.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.40 with the targets at 14.24 or 14.17–14.10 and stop loss 14.45–14.55.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, NZD fell significantly against USD, renewing the minimum since February 2016.

Investors are focused on American foreign trade. Negotiations are going between the United States and Canada on the accession of the latter to the new terms of the NAFTA (agreed earlier by the US and Mexico). However, there's no compromise yet. The market also expects that in the near future, President Trump can introduce increased duties on Chinese goods with a total value of another USD 200 billion. This, surely, will not remain without the answer of the PRC, and in the end, both leading world economies will suffer.

On Tuesday, USD was also supported by US releases. August Manufacturing PMI increased from 54.5 to 54.7 points. The corresponding ISM index accelerated even more: from 58.1 to 61.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move horizontally. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bearish" trend develops. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows ​​and reversed horizontally. The indicator reflects than NZD is oversold in the short term.

The development of corrective growth is possible.

Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6592, 0.6618, 0.6650.
Support levels: 0.6543, 0.6529, 0.6500.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels 0.6560–0.6570 with the targets at 0.6630–0.6650 and stop loss 0.6530–0.6520.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level 0.6529 with the targets at 0.6500 or 0.6480–0.6470 and stop loss 0.6560.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the euro is strengthening

Current trend

EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Wednesday, departing from local lows, updated the day before.

However, the instrument traded mainly with a decrease in the morning. Euro was under pressure by poor economic statistics. In July, EU Retail Sales declined by 0.2% MoM, and grew only by 1.1% YoY (1.3% growth was expected). August EU Services PMI remained at the same level of 54.4 points, and in Germany it fell from 55.2 to 55.0 points over the same period. Investors are focused on the US-Canada negotiations on NAFTA and are waiting for the introduction of new US duties on Chinese goods worth USD 200B.

Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. The focus will be on the ADP Employment Change report, as well as a block of statistics on Markit Services PMI.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is reversing upwards preserving a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is growing, having showed a rebound from the level "20", which can be called a formal margin of oversoldness of EUR.

One should keep existing long positions in the short and ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1621, 1.1573, 1.1526, 1.1500.

Trading tips

To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of 1.1657 while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take profit — 1.1749 or 1.1780. Stop loss — 1.1610 or 1.1600.

The rebound from 1.1657 as from resistance with the subsequent breakdown of 1.1621 can become a signal to further sales with target at 1.1526 or 1.1500. Stop loss — 1.1670 or 1.1680.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: the pound is corrected

Current trend

Yesterday, GBP showed a slight increase against USD, continuing the development of the corrective impulse generated on Wednesday.

GBP is supported by data on possible progress in the Brexit negotiations. Currently, in addition to talks with EU representative Michel Barnier, British officials are discussing separate agreements with several EU countries. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the UK and Germany agreed on a less detailed agreement on future trade relations between the EU and the UK. Later, both parties denied reports, saying that the positions remained the same and there is no progress in the negotiations. The German representative also noted that he fully trusts the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Nevertheless, British investors remained positive.

Today, the focus of investor attention will be shifted to data from the US, where besides the publication of the August labor market report, there will also be speeches by Fed representatives Loretta Mester and Robert Kaplan, while statistics from the UK will be practically absent.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is trying to consolidate, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD is growing keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is growing more actively, quickly approaching its maximum levels.

The current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend.
Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3048, 1.3100.
Support levels: 1.2879, 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2732.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.2960. Take profit — 1.3048 or 1.3100. Stop loss — 1.2910 or 1.2900.

A breakdown of 1.2879 may become a signal for returning to sales with target at 1.2800 or 1.2750, 1.2732. Stop loss — 1.2930 or 1.2940.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Friday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the growth of Nonfarm Payrolls data by 201 thousand, which was higher than the forecast of 191 thousand. The published report dispelled almost all doubts about the rate increase this month. August US average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% MoM and by 2.9% YoY, supporting USD.

Cad is under pressure of August’s growth of unemployment to 6.0% against the forecast of 5.9% and the decrease of employment by 51.6K against the forecast of an increase by 5.0K.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the positive area, preserving the signal to open long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.3207, 1.3225, 1.3286, 1.3382.
Support levels: 1.3158, 1.3127, 1.3102, 1.3043, 1.3006, 1.2935, 1.2886.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3225 and stop loss 1.3130.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3120 with the target at 1.3050 and stop loss 1.3158.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: Euro is corrected

Current trend

EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Monday, departing from the updated local lows of August 21.

The investors are focused on trade negotiations between the US and EU representatives in Brussels. This is the first meeting of the parties since the chairman of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the US president Donald Trump agreed to delay the introduction of higher tariffs for cars produced in the EU in July. At the current negotiations, it is planned to discuss the export of American beef and the possible increase in European taxes towards large American Internet companies.

In general, the market is waiting for ECB meeting. The interest rates are unlikely to be changed, but new comments on the monetary policy of the regulator can appear.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a downward direction and reacts to the resumption of growth of the instrument at the beginning of the current trading week weakly yet.

It is worth looking into the possibility of corrective growth of EUR in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473.

Trading tips

To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of 1.1621, while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take profit – 1.1718 or 1.1749. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.

The return of "bearish" trend to the market with a breakdown of 1.1540 or 1.1530 may become a signal for the resumption of sales. Take profit — 1.1473 or 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1580 or 1.1590.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Having reached two-year lows at the end of last week, the instrument moved to growth and is currently trading near the psychological level of 0.7200.

Despite the low level of consumer confidence in Australia, AUD strengthened after the US offered to begin a new round of negotiations on trade tariffs with the PRC.

In addition, USD was under pressure from yesterday’s negative data on US inflation. In August, the Consumer Price Index fell from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY (minimum since April), and the Base Consumer Price Index rose from 2.4% to 2.2% (the worst indicator since May). Market participants feared that poor inflation data, along with pressure from President Trump's administration and trade tensions, could force FOMC members to hold only one interest rate increase instead of the two planned ones.

Today, the publication of data on retail sales in the US is expected at 14:30 (GMT+2), as well as the data on industrial production (15:15 (GMT+2)).

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the instrument is traded in the upper part of Bollinger Bands, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 0.7200. The indicator is directed upwards and the price range has widened, which indicates the continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic does not give clear signal for entering the market.

Resistance levels: 0.7234, 0.7266, 0.7308, 0.7345, 0.7987.
Support levels: 0.7195, 0.7146, 0.7110, 0.7076.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 0.7250 and stop loss at 0.7180. Implementation period: 1 day.

Short positions could be opened below 0.7175 with targets at 0.7105, 0.7075 and stop loss at 0.7205. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing the border of the oversold zone, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is breaking down its longer MA. The Composite is turning up, having failed its quite strong support region.

Key levels

Support levels: 13.90 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows), 13.63 (December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.28 (July 2017 lows), 14.45 (local highs), 14.85 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.45 with the target at 14.85 and stop-loss at 14.28. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 13.90 with targets at 13.72, 13.63 and stop-loss at 14.02. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

This week, Brent Crude oil shows ambiguous dynamics.

The pressure was exerted by the decision of US President Donald Trump on the introduction of 10% of duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 200 billion from September 24 (from January 1, tariffs may increase to 25%). The expansion of production in the US also influence quotes negatively: according to the Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs increased from 860 to 867 units. According to the EIA report, in October, production at seven largest shale deposits in the United States will reach 7.6 million barrels per day. Today, the instrument rose sharply to 78.80 after the Bloomberg publication, which states that Saudi Arabia considers prices above USD 80 per barrel to be "quite acceptable". This means that in the short term the country will not try to compensate the supply shortage.

Today, investors are waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. If the trend to reduction continues (the last time the volume of oil reserves fell by 8.636 million barrels), then quotes can get additional support.

Support and resistance

Now the price has risen above 78.12 (Murrey [6/8]) and can go up to the area of 79.68 (Murrey [7/8]) and 80.00. Reverse consolidation of the instrument below 78.12 may lead to a correction to 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]) and 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]).

Technical indicators show decline: Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 78.12, 76.56, 75.00.
Resistance levels: 79.68, 80.00, 81.25.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 78.12 with the target at 76.56 and stop loss at 78.60.
Buy positions may be opened from 78.90 with targets at 79.68, 80.00 and stop loss at 78.40.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1175.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows), 1130.0 (December 2016 lows).

Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (local highs), 1241.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price has reached a strong support near 1180.0. There is a chance of an upward correction.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1201.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1160.0 with the target at 1130.0 and stop-loss at 1175.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. YM: general analysis

Current trend

The Dow Jones index has been growing for the third trading session in a row. The price has updated the historical maximum at the level of 26703.1 after the news on the introduction of 10% of trade taxes on Chinese goods, although before that the US president had spoken about the value of 25%. The second positive factor was macroeconomic statistics. Initial Jobless Claims continue to be low, which indicates a strong economic growth in the country.

Today, Markit PMI statistic will be published. Next week, the Fed will hold a meeting. Many market participants expect that the interest rate will be increased by 25 basis points. Thus, USD will most likely begin to strengthen, and a correction in the stock market is possible.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is around 98 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance levels: 26953.1, 27343.8.
Support levels: 26646.8, 26562.5.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 26646.8 with the target at 26562.5 and stop loss 26724.0.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite has reached its critical overbought levels.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is testing from above the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7395.0 (local lows), 7325.0 (local lows), 7230.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7515.0 (local highs), 7580.0 (November 2017 highs), 7615.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing its strong resistance near 7515.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7395.0 with targets at 7325.0, 7230.0 and stop-loss at 7440.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7515.0 with targets at 7580.0, 7615.0 and stop-loss at 7475.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise

Current trend

Yesterday, oil prices increased significantly, renewing the highs since July 11.

The instrument is supported by the results of the meeting of OPEC and partner countries in Algeria. Contrary to market expectations, the cartel did not decide to increase oil production to compensate for the supply deficit that could follow after the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, next year OPEC predicts a serious decline in oil prices, and in this case, production may fall again. Now the market is waiting for a new meeting of the cartel and partner countries, which will take place in Abu Dhabi in December. By this time, the scale of the supply deficit after leaving the Iranian market will become clear, and decisions can be made on its compensation.

On Tuesday, investors will focus on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change will be published on Wednesday.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the short term.

It is better to keep current long positions until the situation becomes clear.

Resistance levels: 72.49, 73.00, 73.74.
Support levels: 71.80, 71.00, 70.00, 69.07, 68.60.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 72.49 or 73.00 with the target at 73.74 or 74.30 and stop loss 72.30–72.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the downwards reversal of the price reverses near the current levels with the target at 70.00 and stop loss 72.50. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair showed a moderate decline against the backdrop of the RBNZ decision on monetary policy.

The New Zealand regulator left the interest rate at the level of 1.75% as expected. At the same time, comments on monetary policy were extremely cautious, which disappointed investors. The RBNZ is interested in a low exchange rate of NZD in order to maintain demand for exports. This measure is aimed at mitigating the consequences of the US-China trade conflict.

Yesterday, the Fed announced the increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points, which was expected by the market. USD strengthening was limited as a number of financiers saw signs of overheating of the American economy. In this regard, investors are expecting today's speech of the Fed head Powell.

Today, a number of significant macroeconomic releases are expected, the publication of which will create volatility in the market. At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on GDP, as well as statistics on personal spending will be published in the US. The speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell is due at 22:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator corrected horizontally and the price range reduced, which indicates further downward correction. MACD histogram is consolidating at the zero mark; the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic is approaching the oversold area boundary; a buy signal can be formed during the day.

Resistance levels: 0.6653, 0.6671, 0.6701, 0.6727, 0.6753.
Support levels: 0.6633, 0.6600, 0.6562, 0.6534, 0.6505.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 0.6630 with target at 0.6570 and stop loss at 0.6660.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6660 with target at 0.6700 and stop loss at 0.6640.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Despite the strength of the US currency in late summer and early autumn, the Canadian dollar is dominating the pair for three months.

One should note a wide range of movement of the instrument, which indicates an ambiguous situation between two currencies. The “Canadian” received the main impulse for growth after the increase in the key rate in July, after which it only grew against all the main competitors. The policy of the Bank of Canada is aimed at further raising of the rates, which will help to keep inflation at the target level. The next meeting of the regulator is scheduled for the end of October. At the end of September, the pair moved upwards, but after reaching the key resistance level of 1.3060, which was the upper border of the descending range, sharply headed down due to the release of strong data on the economic growth of Canada in July. This impulse still controls the movement of the instrument: in less than two days, the pair has gone through almost 300 points.

At the end of the week, major releases will be published, namely, data on the US and Canadian labor markets, including Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States.

Support and resistance

In the short term, the current momentum may extend to 1.2745, the first strong support level. In the future, a correctional movement up to the levels of 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.1285 is expected. In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, as confirmed by all technical indicators: MACD shows a sharp decrease in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands reversed down; on W1 chart, the pair broke the lower border of the long-term uptrend and the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator from the top down.

Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2530.
Resistance levels: 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.2885, 1.2910, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3060.

Trading tips

Deferred short positions may be opened from the levels of 1.2960, 1.2910, 1.2880 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.3110.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure

Current trend

EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday noting a new local low since September 11. Development of the "bearish" trend on the instrument was promoted by heterogeneous macroeconomic statistics from the EU.

Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 points in September from 53.3 a month earlier. The unemployment rate was better than expected and dropped to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in the previous month.

The risks of a political crisis in Italy continue to exert additional pressure on EUR. Previously, Italian politicians set the ratio of deficit to GDP for the next year at a much higher level than was proposed by the EU Ministry of Finance. The European Commission has already opposed these budget plans.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range expands, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero mark. Stochastic, having reached its minimum levels, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating oversold EUR in the ultra-short and/or short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732, 1.1801.
Support levels: 1.1561, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473, 1.1446.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1.1561 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1.1615. Take profit — 1.1700 or 1.1732. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.
A confident breakdown of 1.1561 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473, 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1600 or 1.1615.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices grow

Current trend

Yesterday, silver rose, updating the highs since August 28. The instrument was supported by rather harsh statements by the representative of the ruling party of Italy, Claudio Borghi, that most of the problems in the country could be solved by having their own currency. However, at the end of the trading session, the instrument lost most of its gains after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who confirmed the previous policy to a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

A large block of statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States will be published today, as well as a number of speeches by Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester. In addition, traders are waiting for ADP Employment Change release, since on Friday there will be a September report on the US labor market.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" trend develops. MACD is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic reversed horizontally, reacting to the active instrument correction.

The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the “bullish” trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance Levels: 14.79, 14.86, 15.00.
Support levels: 14.67, 14.60, 14.51, 14.41, 14.25.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 14.79 with the target at 15.00. Stop loss is 14.67. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 14.67 or 14.60 with the targets at 14.41–14.35. Stop loss is 14.70–14.80. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Oil quotes are rising and trading near the level of 86.20. Yesterday’s official EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release, which reflected a significant increase in US oil reserves, could not stop the growth of the prices. According to the report, the indicator rose by 7.975 million barrels for the week, while a more modest growth of 1.985 million barrels was expected. The oil market is supported by the potential risks of oil shortage in the global market due to US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector. Currently, there is a slight downward correction, but in general, the upward trend continues.

On Friday, investors will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release, which decreased by 3 units to 863 last week.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflect the preservation of growth potential but do not exclude a correction in the short term. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD volumes declined slightly in the positive zone, indicating the formation of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointed downwards. If sellers manage to lower the rate below 85.93 (Murrey [7/8]), then it may develop a correction to the area of ​​84.80, corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger bands. If buyers increase their activity and fix the rate above 86.55, then Brent may grow to 87.50 (Murrey [8/8]).

Resistance Levels: 86.60, 87.50, 88.00.
Support levels: 85.93, 84.37, 82.81.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 85.93 with the target around ​​84.80 and stop loss 86.10
Long positions can be opened above the level of 86.56 with the target at 87.50 and stop loss 86.30.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: transition to the lateral trend

Current trend

The euro continues to decline against the dollar within the broad long-term trend.

Over the past two weeks, the instrument has lost more than 350 points, breaking strong support levels of 1.1515, 1.1500 on its way. Now the pair has fixed within the lateral consolidation after a serious decline and in anticipation of the release of key releases on the US labor market.

Today, data on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be published. The unemployment will possibly decline, while at the same time, consensus forecasts indicate a reduction in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy.

Support and resistance

Most likely, one will see an increase in volatility after releases but there will be no significant change in the rate. In the medium term, the pair will descend to the levels of 1.1430, 1.1400, after which the rising wave will be formed with targets at 1.1600, 1.1665.

Technical indicators show the possibility of moving to broad lateral consolidation. MACD indicates a decrease in volumes on D1 chart, and the signal line is approaching zero one; Bollinger Bands on D1 and W1 charts are directed horizontally.

Support levels: 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1170.
Resistance levels: 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1575, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1715, 1.1730.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1370; pending short positions may be opened from 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1665 with the target at 1.1370 and stop loss at 1.1700, 1.1760.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having failed its strong resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support.

Key levels

Support levels: 1182.0 (local lows), 1171.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (August lows).

Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1236.0 (December 2017 lows), 1241.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price keeps consolidating in a narrow sideways channel. A breakout of its upper border would allow the growth to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1236.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1196.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with targets at 1171.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1188.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having formed a “double top” reverse pattern. The Composite is testing its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing towards its longer MA. The Composite is breaking out its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.25 (local lows), 13.95 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.77 (local highs), 14.95 (local highs), 15.24 (local highs).

Trading tips

After a short-term correction the fall can continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.25 with targets at 13.95, 13.72 and stop-loss at 14.38. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.95 with the target at 15.24 and stop-loss at 14.77. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are consolidating

Current trend

After a sharp decline at the beginning of the current week, gold prices are in the slight correction. The instrument is under pressure from a rising USD due to the restoration of treasury bonds yields’ growth. In addition, the market still expects a further increase in the Fed’s interest rates, which makes the purchase of gold, as an asset that does not generate interest income, unprofitable.

Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US consumer price dynamics. If the report meets the expectations of analysts, this will confirm market confidence in further tightening of monetary policy and will affect the instrument negatively.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. The price range remains quite narrow and does not attempt to widen, which corresponds to the real trading dynamics in the market. MACD indicator is falling, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards, however, it is approaching its lows, which indicates the risks associated with oversold gold in the short and/or super short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1191.71, 1195.28, 1200.00, 1208.14.
Support Levels: 1187.53, 1183.10, 1180.35, 1170.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1191.71 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1183.10 with the target at 1175.00 or 1170.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the pair is growing

Current trend

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair rose within the correction after the “bearish” start of the week, which led to a renewal of the lows since August 20. EUR was supported by USD correction due to a decline in the 10-year government bonds’ yield. Data on Industrial Production from France and Italy affected the instrument positively, too. Thus, August Industrial Production in France rose by 0.3% MoM, which is noticeably worse than the dynamics of last month (0.8% MoM), but still better than analysts' forecasts (+0.1% MoM). The corresponding index in Italy rose by 1.7% MoM against a decrease of 1.6% MoM last month. Experts expected the growth only by +0.8% MoM.

This morning, the pair continues to grow. Investors are waiting for new drivers: ECB meeting report and a block of US September macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively falling. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in the trade direction in the short term. MACD reversed upwards, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects that EUR will become overbought soon.

It is better to keep current long positions until the situation is clear.

Resistance Levels: 1.1580, 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732.
Support levels: 1.1547, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1430.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1580 with the target at 1.1657 or 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1540.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.1580 and the breakdown of the level of 1.1547 with the targets at 1.1500 or 1.1475–1.1460. Stop loss 1.1580–1.1590.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair started the week with the growth and reached 1.1575. USD was under pressure after comments by the US president.

Donald Trump did not rule out the introduction of higher tariffs for Chinese goods if the PRC does not open its markets and does not enter into a fair agreement with the US. Washington has implemented three rounds of increasing duties, overlaying Chinese imports totaling USD 250 billion. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping should meet in November at the G20 summit in Argentina, where trade talks between the parties are likely to continue.

The data on retail sales in the United States is due today. In September, the indicator may rise from 0.1% to 0.7%, which may cause the beginning of a decline in the instrument.

Support and resistance

The key level for the "bulls" is 1.1596, which is near the center line of Bollinger Bands. If the price consolidates above it, the growth to the levels of 1.1657 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [7/8]) may continue. A breakdown of the level of 1.1535 (Murrey [5/8]) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is reduced in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching the overbought area, which may lead to a downward reverse.

Resistance levels: 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1718.
Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1474, 1.1413.

Trading tips

Short positions could be opened below 1.1535 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop loss at 1.1580.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1600 with target at 1.1657, 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1570.

Implementation period: 4-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro is restoring

Current trend

After a rapid downward trend, the EUR/USD pair entered a wide sideways consolidation. At the beginning of last week, the price dropped to a strong support level of 1.1430, where it reversed and began to strengthen. The main growth catalyst was the decline in demand for the US currency due to the publication of negative releases on inflation, the labor market, retail sales, and major US indices, while positive data on industrial production released in EU.

Today, US Industrial Production data will be published, and FOMC Meeting Minutes release is expected tomorrow. At the end of the week, special attention should be paid to EU inflation statistics.

Support and resistance

In the short term, a significantly overbought dollar reacts sharply to negative releases in major sectors of the economy and is falling. If the upward momentum of the instrument maintains, the pair may rise to the key resistance levels and local highs of the last five months at the levels of 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850.

On the daily chart, the technical indicators confirm a high probability of a reversal: the MACD volumes of short positions are decreasing, Bollinger bands are pointed sideways.

Resistance levels: 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1730, 1.1775, 1.1800, 1.1830.
Support levels: 1.1550, 1.1515, 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850 and stop loss 1.1460.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European session, the price of silver is growing but the downward trend is still relevant. A key support level is around 5/8 Murrey or 14.55. If the price consolidates below it, then the next target will be the level of 14.00.

The precious metals are under pressure of the Fed’s aggressive policy, which continues to raise interest rates and provides an increase in government bonds’ yield and makes these instruments attractive for investment. On the other hand, criticism of the regulators’ actions by Donald Trump may affect the global balance of power in the market, and as monetary policy changes, silver will increase again. Nevertheless, the US economy continues to grow, and many economists believe that there is no point in mitigating the policy. Thus, the published data on Industrial Production for September increased by +5.1%. Capacity Utilization decreased slightly to 78.1% against a forecast of 78.2%, which may be a short-term recession, which will reverse upwards again.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 22 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance Levels: 14.74, 14.84.
Support levels: 14.55, 14.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.55 with the target at 14.00 and the stop loss at 14.74.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: technical analysis

USD/CHF, D1

On the D1 chart, the pair is strengthening in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upwards, and the price range expanded, indicating further growth of the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone keeping a buy signal. Stochastic has entered the oversold area; a strong sell signal can be formed during 2-3 days.

USD/CHF, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument is testing the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally and the price range expanded, which serves as a basis for continuing uptrend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area; a sell signal can be formed during the day.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.9959, 1.0003, 1.0035, 1.0060.
Support levels: 0.9916, 0.9883, 0.9841, 0.9804, 0.9760, 0.9706.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.0030 and stop loss at 0.9915. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.9910 with target at 0.9840 and stop loss at 0.9940. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR fell significantly against USD, renewing its lows since October 10, due to the general strengthening of USD after strict Fed’s statements on further interest rate growth. USD was additionally supported by a sharp decline in the Chinese yuan, which continues today due to poor data on China's Q3 GDP.

EUR is under pressure of uncertain Brexit prospects and the tightening of the situation around the Italian budget for the next year. Yesterday, investors were focused on the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. There were no new proposals to solve the Irish border problem, and an agreement with the UK was not concluded. However, officials are developing a new mechanism to allow the UK to leave the EU as painlessly as possible. The idea is to extend the negotiations on the Irish border for a certain period after the end of the Brexit procedure itself.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately reduced. The price range is narrowing, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD is decreasing, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls, however, is in close proximity to zero values, which reflects that EUR is oversold in the super short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1522, 1.1547.
Support levels: 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1352.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a reversal near the current support levels and the breakout of 1.1460–1.1470 with the target of 1.1580 or 1.1600. Stop loss is 1.1430. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1352. Stop loss is 1.1460–1.1470. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: technical analysis

Brent Crude Oil, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument returned to growth after a correction, and it is now trading between the middle line and the bottom border of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, its volumes are reduced, the signal line is directed downwards. Stochastic could not consolidate in the oversold zone and is currently in the neutral zone, moving horizontally.

Brent Crude Oil, H4

On the 4-hour chart, there is a correction of the downward movement to the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping the signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 81.69, 83.05, 84.47, 85.79, 87.21.
Support levels: 80.11, 78.88, 78.14, 77.20.

Trading tips

In the short term, it is better to open short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 79.00 and stop loss 79.70. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 82.20 with the target at 83.00. Stop loss is 81.90. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument grows towards the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price range is widened, which reflects a possibility of further upward movement development. MACD histogram is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the zero line and the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke through the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price is now growing. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are minimal, the indicator signal line moves horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 1235.54, 1245.43, 1257.05, 1267.00.
The levels of support: 1228.52, 1222.71, 1217.95, 1214.00, 1207.60, 1205.05, 1198.69, 1192.75, 1182.79.

Trading tips

In the short term, long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1245.00 and stop loss 1230.00.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1214.00 with the target at 1207.50. Stop loss is 1218.00.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

GBP remains under pressure after the EU summit in Brussels ended in vain.

This week, British Prime Minister Theresa May meets members of parliament to explain the future strategy. On Monday, she said that the agreement with the EU was 95% confirmed; the Irish border remains an issue. A new meeting will be held tonight with members of the Conservative Party, some of whom want to change the prime minister.

There is also no unity inside the British cabinet. According to Bloomberg, seven officials headed by Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt disagree with the proposal to leave the UK indefinitely within the EU customs rules. Deputy Prime Minister David Lidington warned that a “divorce” without a deal could lead to a serious reduction in transit through the Eurotunnel, and Transport Minister Chris Grayling even offered to charter ships to supply Britain by sea. Anyway, the issue should be resolved by the end of November, otherwise, there would not be enough time for its ratification.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen below 1.2940 (Murrey [4/8]) and may continue to decline to 1.2878 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2817 (Murrey [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3000 (Murrey [5/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands); after breaking it out, growth targets will be 1.3061 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.3122 (Murrey [6/8]). However, the decline seems more probable, since Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Support levels: 1.2878, 1.2817.
Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3061, 1.3122.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2920 with targets at 1.2878, 1.2817 and stop loss at 1.1580.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.3000 with targets at 1.3061, 1.3122 and stop loss at 1.2950.

Implementation period: 3-4 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair was corrected to the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]). On Wednesday, the European currency was under pressure from the results of the ECB meeting. The rates remained the same: the key one – at the level of 0.0%, and the deposit one – at the level of -0.4%. The rhetoric of the regulator has not changed. The accompanying statement noted that officials expect rates to increase no earlier than the end of the summer of 2019, and purchases of bonds in the amount of 15 billion euros will continue until December. During the press conference, ECB Head Mario Draghi noted that the increase in protectionism and the volatility of the financial market are important risks for the recovery of the Eurozone. Currently the European economy is weakening due to the uncertainty with Brexit, the new Italian budget and the US-China trade war. However, the ECB's policy helps support domestic demand and private consumption. Current regulatory measures are still needed to ensure a steady increase in inflation to a target level of 2.0%.

Today the data on US GDP for the third quarter will be published. The figure may decline from 4.2% to 3.3%, which may slow down the downward trend.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]), the breakdown of which may cause a fall to the levels of 1.1291 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murray [0/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.1413 (Murray [3/8]) may cause an upward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) and 1.1535 (Murray [5/8]). However, the decline looks more likely, as the Bollinger and Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone.

Support Levels: 1.1352, 1.1291, 1.1230.
Resistance Levels: 1.1413, 1.1474, 1.1535.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at 1.1340 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and a stop loss at 1.1390.
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.1413 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1535 and a stop loss in the region of 1.1380.

Implementation of scenarios: 4-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning up, and on the level with the EMA130, which is horizontal. The RSI is testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1212.0 (September highs), 1195.0 (local lows), 1182.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1240.0 (local highs), 1246.0 (October 2016 lows), 1262.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of a downward correction, after which the growth will resume.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1212.0 with targets at 1240.0, 1246.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with the target at 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1195.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On D1 chart, the instrument broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and after that, the decline slowed down. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal, the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are pointing downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument declines along the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in negative zone with its volumes gradually growing; the signal line is crossing its body from above, keeping the signal for the opening of short orders. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone from above, the oscillator lines are reversing up.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.39, 14.33, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.
Resistance levels: 14.43, 14.49, 14.60, 14.70, 14.77, 14.82, 14.89.

Trading tips

According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 14.22 and stop loss at 14.50.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 14.60 with the target at 14.82 and stop loss at 14.49.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined significantly on Tuesday, responding to the strengthening USD across the entire spectrum of the market and the decline in traders' interest in safe-haven assets due to a rise in stock markets.

Traders are focused on US-China trade conflict. According to Bloomberg, the US government is preparing to impose duties on the remaining Chinese imports, the amount of which is about USD 257B. The new duties will come into force if the November meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit ends without result. In this case, the growth of Chinese GDP next year may slow down to 1.5% (this year the figure is expected to be higher than 6.0%). However, the Chinese authorities are unlikely to allow such a decline in the economy, so they are already trying to level out the threat.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range keeps the flat dynamics remaining too narrow for the current activity at the market. MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the oversold instrument in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08, 1237.60, 1243.21.
Support levels: 1215.28, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1195.28.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1215.28 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1220.45. Take profit — 1237.60 or 1243.21. Stop loss — 1210.00.
A breakdown of 1215.28 may become a signal to further sales with target at 1208.14, 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1220.45.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.