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Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

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  #721  
Old 15-01-2019, 07:46
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The US dollar is declining against the pound and the Australian currency, however, it shows a sideways trend paired with the euro and is growing against the yen. Today, investors will pay attention to the publication of PPI in the US (15:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.1% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 2.5% in December. In the afternoon, speeches by members of the US Federal Reserve are expected. Speech by Neel Kashkari is planned for 18:30 (GMT+2), and speeches by Esther George and Robert Kaplan are expected at 20:00 (GMT+2). From their speeches, investors are hoping to understand the intentions of the regulator regarding the rate hike in 2019. Speeches of officials of this rank can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1449–1.1488. Investors are awaiting publication of data from the euro area on the trade balance (12:00 GMT+2), as well as the speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (17:00 GMT+2).

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.2908 during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the outcome of the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit. Theresa May calls on MPs to approve the treaty, arguing that the consequences could otherwise be catastrophic. In case of failure of the vote, the Prime Minister will have three working days to prepare an alternative version of the contract.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is rising actively and has reached the level of 108.74 during the Asian session. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Japan, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD is rising having reached 0.7217 during the Asian session. Against the background of the absence of macroeconomic releases from Australia, the movement of the instrument's rate is of a technical nature.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1290.00.
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  #722  
Old 16-01-2019, 07:10
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

The US dollar moderately strengthens against the euro and the yen, but shows a lateral trend paired with the Australian currency. Statistics from the USA, published yesterday, indicated a decline in the Producer Price Index to –0.2% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, but did not have a significant impact on the instrument. Investors continue to follow the news regarding the US government shutdown, which has been going on for the fourth week and, according to representatives of the administration, may last until the end of February. This situation threatens the market with possible negative consequences. Macroeconomic statistics, which can influence USD today, include the data on retail sales in the USA (15:30 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of 1.1410. EUR is under pressure from yesterday’s speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi at the European Parliament. The official believes that the slowdown in the economy can last longer than expected. Uncertainty about Brexit puts additional pressure on the euro. Yesterday, the British Parliament rejected an agreement on the UK leaving the EU, prepared by Prime Minister Theresa May.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair showed ambiguous dynamics on Tuesday amid heightened volatility caused by the outcome of a vote in the UK Parliament on withdrawal from the EU. Quotes fell to the level of 1.2667, after which they quickly returned to the level of 1.2869, where they are trading during today's Asian session. Yesterday, the British MPs rejected an agreement prepared by the government of Theresa May and the EU. MPs voted 432 to 202 to defeat the proposal. Now the Prime Minister has three days to present an alternative to the Brexit agreement. During this time, Theresa May will probably try to get new concessions from the EU, as well as convince the Parliament to support the deal. The instrument today may be affected by the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney (11:15 GMT+2), as well as statistics on the CPI in the UK in December (11:30 GMT+2).

USD/JPY

After active growth on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair corrected down to 108.47 during today's Asian session. Yesterday's statistics from Japan was ignored by investors. The movement of the instrument rate is primarily technical. Tertiary Industry Activity Index was better than expected, but worse than in the previous month and amounted to –0.3% in December against 2.2% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows lateral dynamics within the range of 0.7224–0.7178 and has changed slightly on the whole.

Gold

Quotes of gold have ambiguous dynamics. After an active decline yesterday and a test of the level of 1286.56, the instrument rate returned to 1292.15 during the Asian session.
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  #723  
Old 18-01-2019, 07:21
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The US dollar is moving horizontally paired with the euro, falling against the pound and the Australian currency, but is strengthening against the yen. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. The number of initial jobless claims dropped to 213K from 216K a week earlier, which is the lowest level in the last 5 weeks. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index was better than expected reaching 17.0 points in January against 9.1 points a month earlier. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Industrial Production in the US. It is expected that the indicator will fall to 0.2% in December from 0.6% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the range of 1.1370–1.1403. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of euro area lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on the news from the US. Investors continue monitoring the development of the situation around Brexit. After the failure of a vote in the British Parliament, Theresa May must prepare a fallback deal.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing positive dynamics and rose to 1.2970 during the Asian session. Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence and is preparing an alternative Brexit deal for January 21. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on retail sales in the UK (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator in monthly terms is expected to decrease to –0.8% in December from 1.4% a month earlier, and in annual terms it can remain unchanged at 3.6% in December.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY rose to 109.37 due to the positive statistics from the US. Statistics from Japan published this night puts pressure on the yen. National Core CPI went down to 0.7% in December from 0.9% a month earlier.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7202 during the Asian session. In the absence of significant releases, the movement of AUD is technical.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate lateral dynamics and are traded near the level of 1291.02.
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  #724  
Old 21-01-2019, 07:51
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After active growth on Friday, the US dollar is moderately declining against most majors during today's Asian session. Due to the holiday in the US, investors correct their long dollar positions. Investors are still focused on the US-China trade negotiations. The market remains optimistic, perceiving data on a possible softening of the American position as a sign of a conclusion of a big deal.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1375 during the Asian session due to correction of USD. Due to the absence of important releases in the euro area, the movement of the instrument is technical.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD continues showing negative dynamics having declined to 1.2856 during the Asian session. There are no significant releases planned in the British macroeconomic calendar today. Today Prime Minister Theresa May is to submit an alternative option for the country's withdrawal from the EU to the UK Parliament.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the pair USD/JPY decreased to 109.57 due to the low trading activity. Due to the absence of important releases in the US and Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair went up to the level of 0.7167 during the Asian session, ignoring the weak data on HIA New Home Sales in Australia. According to statistics published tonight, the value of the index fell to –6.7% in December from 3.6% a month earlier.

Gold

During the Asian session, the quotations of gold tried to consolidate below 1281.25 several times, but failed and the rate moved to the phase of the upward correction.
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  #725  
Old 22-01-2019, 07:50
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Morning Market Review
2019-01-22 10:12 (GMT+2)
USD strengthens moderately against most majors, with the exception of the yen. On Monday, the American stock exchanges were closed due to the celebration of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, so there was a decrease in trading activity. Macroeconomic releases able to influence the instrument today include data on existing home sales in the US (17:00 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to reduce to 5.25M in January from 5.32M a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1355 against the background of low trading activity. Investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on ZEW Economic Sentiment. The indicator is expected to amount to –20.1 points in January against –21.0 points a month earlier. Despite the expected small increase in the indicator, pessimism in European business circles will continue to prevail, which could adversely affect the euro.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is moderately declining and is trading at 1.2878 during the Asian session. Yesterday, Theresa May presented an alternative Brexit plan in the British Parliament. As it turned out, the fallback is not much different from the previous one, rejected by Parliament. Among the main differences proposed there is the abolition of 65 pounds fee for EU citizens who want to stay in the UK after Brexit. A repeated referendum on the issue of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU will not be held. Also, the British Prime Minister said that the government has changed its policy and will listen more to the opinion of MPs during the work on a new Brexit agreement. Macroeconomic releases that could have an impact on the pound today include data on unemployment and average earnings in the UK (11:30 GMT+2).

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is declining moderately and is testing the level of 109.37 during the Asian session. As there is lack of key economic releases, the instrument is traded under the influence of technical factors.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.7138 during the Asian session. The pressure on the Australian currency is still exerted by weak data on new home sales in Australia, as well as weak statistics on China's GDP for the fourth quarter.

Gold

After testing the level of 1277.20, gold quotations slightly corrected upwards, but the downward trend still persists.
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  #726  
Old 23-01-2019, 08:15
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US dollar is falling against most majors. Yesterday's weak statistics on Existing Home Sales in the US exerts pressure on the instrument. The indicator went down to 4.99M in December from 5.33M in the previous month (–6.4%). The US macroeconomic calendar lacks important releases today. The movement of the USD paired with other currencies will be affected by the external factors. On the whole, the longest-lasting government shutdown continues to have a negative impact on the instrument. The parties are still far from a compromise, so it is possible that the government agencies shutdown will last until February or March. Such a scenario can lead to a weakening of the national economy by 0.5%.

EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1366 due to the weakening USD. In the absence of news from the US and the euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by technical factors.

GBP/USD

Quotes of the pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2939, where they are consolidating during the Asian session. Yesterday's strong data on the labor market in the UK, as well as the general weakening of the US currency, support the pound. Today, market participants are waiting for the publication of data on CBI Industrial Trends Orders. The indicator is expected to drop to 5 points in January from 8 points in the previous month. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Pressure on the yen is exerted by weak export data and All Industries Activity Index of the Japanese economy. Exports fell to –3.8% in December from 0.1% a month earlier, which is the most significant drop in the last two years. All Industries Activity Index went down to –0.3% in November from 2.1% a month earlier. As expected, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at –0.10% and lowered its forecast for core consumer inflation from 1.4% to 0.9% in the fiscal year starting in April.

AUD/USD

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD rose to the level of 0.7141 due to the general weakening of USD. Due to the absence of important releases, the movement of the instrument is technical.

Gold

Due to the yesterday's weak US statistics, gold quotations increased to 1284.00.
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  #727  
Old 24-01-2019, 07:11
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The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamics against most majors, falling against the euro, pound and the yen, but strengthening against the Australian dollar. Today, market participants expect the publication of data from the United States on Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+2), as well as on Manufacturing PMI (16:45 GMT+2). It is expected that the number of initial jobless claims will rise to 220K from 213K a week earlier. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 53.5 points in January from 53.8 points a month earlier. If this forecast is right, it will put pressure on the US dollar in the short run.

EUR/USD

During yesterday's trading, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair strengthened significantly and reached the level of 1.1380, near which they are consolidating during the Asian session. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data from the euro area on the Manufacturing PMI as well as on Services PMI (11:00 GMT+2), and also for the ECB interest rate decision. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 0.00%. Today at 15:30 GMT+2, Mario Draghi is expected to give a press conference. It is expected that the head of the ECB will describe the risks to the European economy and assess the results of the completed asset purchase program. Draghi’s opinion will be particularly important due to the potential aggravation of trade relations between the US and the EU. Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 51.4 points in January. Services PMI is expected to grow to 51.5 points in January from 51.2 points a month before.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD is showing positive dynamics having risen to 1.3070 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the likely extension of the Brexit negotiation process and the postponement of the UK’s final withdrawal from the EU from March 29 to a later date. Today, the macroeconomic calendar of the UK lacks important releases, so the movement of the rate will depend on external factors.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY dropped to 109.57 due to the general weakening of USD. As there is a lack of key economic releases, the movement of the price is of technical nature.

AUD/USD

During the Asian trading session, the quotes of AUD/USD are traded in both directions. After the publication of positive statistics on the labor market in Australia, the rate of the instrument rose to the level of 0.7165, after which it just as quickly went down to the level of 0.7103. Employment Change turned out to be better than the forecasts and amounted to 21.6K in December against 37.0K a month earlier (with the forecast of +16.5K). The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0% in December from 5.1% a month earlier.

Gold

Gold quotations are falling moderately having dropped to 1281.25 during Asian trading.
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  #728  
Old 25-01-2019, 07:35
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The US dollar is strengthening against the euro and the yen, but is declining against the pound and the AUD. The instrument is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the USA published yesterday. Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.9 points in January from 53.8 a month earlier. Initial jobless claims dropped to 199K from 212K a week earlier. Services PMI was better than the forecast of 54.0 points, but dropped to 54.2 points in January from 54.4 points a month earlier. Fundamental events today include Durable Goods Orders data in the US (15:30 GMT+2). It is expected that the indicator will rise to 1.8% in December from –4.3% a month earlier. If this assumption is right, it will support the instrument in the short run.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD quotes amid yesterday's weak statistics on business activity indices in the eurozone and the ECB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.00% at least until the end of summer fell to 1.1288. However, during today's Asian session, they are corrected upwards. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on German Ifo Business Climate Index. The indicator is expected to fall to 100.7 points in January from 101.0 points a month earlier. If the forecast is implemented, the rate of the instrument will fall under additional pressure.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3131 during the Asian session. The pound is supported by the news about Democratic Unionist Party's intention to support the alternative Brexit deal by Theresa May next week. Today, traders are waiting for statistics from the UK gross mortgage approvals (11:30 GMT+2). The indicator is expected to decline to 38.9K in December from 39.4K a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, it could put pressure on the pound in the short term.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair today rose to 109.76 during the Asian session. Statistics from Japan released at night indicated an increase in Tokyo Core CPI to 1.1% in January from 0.9% a month earlier, but could not provide support to the yen.

AUD/USD

Quotations of the pair AUD/USD are declining moderately having amounted to 0.7095 at the backdrop of the absence of macroeconomic releases.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold are growing moderately and consolidated above the level of 1280.00.
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  #729  
Old 28-01-2019, 07:22
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EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1410. The market remains optimistic after the temporary cessation of the government shutdown in the United States. On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a decree financing the government for a period of three weeks. Trump made a deal with the Democrats, who, according to the American media, promised to allocate a significant part of the budget for the construction of the border wall with Mexico. It is not excluded that in three weeks the shutdown will resume if promises are not kept. During the day, European investors will be waiting for the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. Perhaps he will share his opinion on the state of the European economy. Last week after the regulator's meeting, Draghi noted that the risks to the growth of the European economy had become negative, which is associated with geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism. However, the likelihood of a recession in the euro area is low.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD started the week trading in the range of 1.3180–1.3210. Investors hope that within a week the issue of Brexit can be clarified. On Tuesday, a second vote is expected on a deal with the EU, but since the second version of the agreement does not differ much from the one rejected by the House of Commons, the chances for its support by the MPs are low. Repeated rejection of a deal with the EU could lead to the extension of negotiations and even to concessions from the leadership of the European Union, since neither side wants a tough Brexit. During the day, the market is waiting for the speech of Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, who can share his opinion on the prospects of the British economy in connection with Brexit, as well as highlight the further monetary policy of the regulator.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7202 amid reports of the resumption of the US government, but has now corrected to the area of 0.7190. However, in general, the pair is moving under the influence of technical factors, since it is a day off in Australia, the stock exchanges are closed, and trading activity is low.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session continued declining and reached the level of 109.30. The yen is being strengthened as a safe haven asset against the background of a possible delay in the negotiations between the US and the PRC. Last week, US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that the parties are still far from the deal. Today, the minutes of the last meeting of the Japanese regulator was published, but it did not give anything new to investors. Bank of Japan officials noted that in general, the Japanese economy continues to grow moderately, exports, industrial production and domestic demand increase moderately as well. Inflation continues to move to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, the risks of world trade instability and increased protectionism remain. Under these conditions, the regulator will continue to maintain its current "dovish" monetary policy until inflation reaches 2.0%. Rates will remain at the same level for a long time.

Gold

Quotes of gold had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. At first, after a significant increase on Friday, they corrected to the level of 1300.00, but now they have won back their positions and are trading at the level of 1303.00.
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  #730  
Old 29-01-2019, 07:38
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EUR/USD

On Monday afternoon, the EUR/USD pair dropped to the area of 1.1415, but has now recovered some of the losses and is trading at 1.1434. In general, investors are concerned about the official charges by the US authorities against the Chinese corporation Huawei. The company is accused of two dozen crimes including violating the sanctions regime against Iran and stealing technology from the American company T-Mobile. This information appeared on the eve of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China, and may well complicate them significantly. Additional pressure on the euro was put by the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. He said that recent economic data was worse than expected, and the reason for this was the decline in external demand and the threat of protectionism. Draghi also noted that in case of deterioration of the European economy, the regulator may use additional instruments to support it. During the day, investors are waiting for the publication in the US consumer confidence index from Conference Board. It is expected that the figure will fall for the third month in a row, this time from 128.1 to 124.7 points. The implementation of the forecast could put pressure on USD.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD traded within the range of 1.3160–1.3144 during the Asian session. The market is calm, as investors are waiting for a new vote in the British parliament to be held today. The MPs would like to make a number of changes in the deal with the EU. A total of 14 amendments were proposed, including the exclusion of the possibility of no deal Brexit, a delay of several months and a temporary restriction on the backstop mechanism, according to which Northern Ireland should follow EU customs and trade rules until the parties agree on the Irish border. EU officials insisted that the backstop should be permanent, but this does not satisfy the majority of British MPs. If this amendment is adopted, the negotiations may come to a standstill, since Brussels had previously stated that they would not make any changes to the contract.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD showed ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 0.7137, the price recovered and is now trading at 0.7170. Australian investors are monitoring the situation around Huawei, accused in the US of economic crimes. This situation may adversely affect the trade negotiations between the United States and China, which will put pressure on the Australian economy. The speech of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who said that Australia could expect the first in 28 years economic recession if the ruling party loses the next general election, is also in the focus.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to the level of 109.12, the instrument won back the losses and reached the level of 109.25. The yen is under pressure from the Cabinet of Ministers report, which lowered the estimate of exports of Japanese goods in January for the first time in three months. The reason for this was the trade conflict between China and the United States. The supplies of equipment for the production of electronics and semiconductors to the PRC suffered the most.

Gold

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1306.00. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.
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  #731  
Old 30-01-2019, 07:32
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair has grown and is currently trading at 1.1445. Investors are encouraged by the statements of US officials regarding the upcoming trade negotiations with China. Donald Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the President remains moderately optimistic about the possibility of concluding a trade agreement with the PRC by March, despite the situation with Huawei. Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, in turn, noted that the government expects significant progress in the upcoming negotiations, primarily in the access of American companies to the Chinese market and the protection of technology. On the other hand, negative data on Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in January for the third month in a row and amounted to 120.2 points (the worst figure since 2017), put pressure on USD. According to experts, the decline is due to the general instability of the markets and the partial closure of the US government.

During the day, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on US GDP for Q4 2018 (a decrease from 3.4% to 2.6% is expected) and data on ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (a decrease from 271K to 170K is expected). However, the most important event of the day will be the Fed's decision on the interest rate and comments by representatives of the regulator. The rate is expected to remain at the same level of 2.50%. However, investors are more interested in the number of rate increases planned for the current year.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair corrected upwards, partly winning back the positions lost the day before. The British currency is under pressure from the results of voting in the British Parliament regarding amendments to the Brexit deal. Yvette Cooper's amendment, which allows postponing the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union from March 29 to December 31 2018, was rejected, and Graham Brady's amendment, changing the article on backstop, passed the vote. Now Teresa May should return to Brussels and try to get new concessions from EU officials, based on the results of the vote. However, representatives of the European Union have repeatedly stated that they will not change the text of the deal; therefore the chances of success for the British Prime Minister are quite low.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the level of 0.7200 against the background of positive data on inflation in Australia. CPI rose from 0.4% to 0.5% QoQ and decreased from 1.9% to 1.8% YoY. Thus, Australian inflation remains close to the target level of 2.0%.

USD/JPY

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair generally declined and is now testing the level of 109.25. JPY is supported by December retail sales data, which grew by 1.3%, exceeding market expectations. It is likely that sales will continue to grow over the coming months as citizens seek to make acquisitions ahead of the planned increase in sales tax from 8% to 10% this autumn.

Gold

Gold quotes continued growth and reached the level of 1314.95. Investors are buying the asset because of the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade negotiations.
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  #732  
Old 31-01-2019, 07:26
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair continued to grow and has now risen to 1.1508. Investors positively assessed the results of the Fed meeting where it was decided to leave the interest rate in the range of 2.25% –2.50%. During the press conference, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that at the moment there are fewer arguments in favor of the rate increase, therefore the Fed will take a wait-and-see approach. Powell also noted that in the current year the growth rate of the American economy may slow down. The government shutdown may lead to a decrease in GDP in Q1 2019, but if there are no new shutdowns, then in Q2 2019 the economy will recover its losses. USD was also supported by ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data. In January, the growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 213K.

During the day, the market is waiting for the release of data on euro area GDP (expected to decline from 1.6% to 1.2%), for Initial Jobless Claims in the US (growth is expected to 215K) and for New Home Sales (expected to increase from 544K to 560K).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair was growing during the Asian session and reached the level of 1.3137. The pound strengthened against the background of a positive market reaction to the results of the Fed meeting. However, in general, the situation for GBP remains difficult. In the near future, the pound will be under pressure from the negative reaction of European officials to the British MPs backstop amendment. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, and French President, Emmanuel Macron, have already opposed it. EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, noted that the backstop rule is a realistic solution to prevent the creation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and therefore should remain unchanged. European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the last vote in the British Parliament increased the risk of a tough Brexit, but expressed the hope that the deal could still be concluded. In general, it does not seem that Brussels would make concessions to London, and this increases the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU without a deal or cancellation of Brexit in order to prevent economic losses.

AUD/USD

At the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD grew to 0.7270. In addition to the outcome of the Fed meeting, the Australian dollar is supported by positive Chinese statistics. In January, Manufacturing PMI of China grew for the first time in five months and amounted to 49.5 points. Non-Manufacturing PMI increased for the second month in a row, this time from 53.8 to 54.7 points.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session were falling and are now at 108.67. The yen is supported by positive Chinese statistics on Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and the outcome of the Fed meeting. Also, the Japanese currency is supported by data on the volume of industrial production in Japan, which declined by 0.1% in December, which is much less than the market expected (decrease by 0.5%) and November figures (decrease by 1.0%). In general, the slowdown in the decline in production indicates the prospects for the recovery of the Japanese economy.

Gold

Quotes of gold at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 1320.30–1317.15. The pressure on the US dollar and the demand for the precious metal were the result of recent decisions by the US Federal Reserve.
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  #733  
Old 01-02-2019, 07:24
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair declined moderately at the Asian session and is now trading at 1.1430. USD is strengthening against the backdrop of statements by US President Donald Trump, who said on Twitter that trade negotiations with the Chinese delegation are going well and the parties are trying to conclude a deal without leaving a single issue unresolved. However, Trump indicated that he would not enter into a trade agreement until he met with PRC Chairman Xi Jinping again. Such a meeting may take place at the end of February in China. In general, the market remains optimistic, hoping for a resolution of the conflict between the United States and China. Also, the US currency is supported by strong November data on new home sales in the USA. The growth rate exceeded forecasts and amounted to 657K.

During the day the market will be waiting for the January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain st the same level of 3.9%. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to reduce from 312K to 165K. Today's data may be better than expected, as the leading indicator of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change exceeded market expectations and amounted to 213K. In this case, the strengthening of the dollar will continue.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was declining and is now trading at 1.3090. The British currency is under pressure from the uncertainty of Brexit. The European Union is not going to make concessions to the UK and change the current text of the deal in accordance with the amendments of the British MPs. Under these conditions, the assumption that the UK’s exit date from the EU may be postponed to a later date does not subside. British Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, hinted at this in an interview with the BBC.

Today, the release of the January Manufacturing PMI in the UK is expected. After two months of growth, the indicator is expected to resume the decline and drop from 54.2 to 53.5 points, which could put pressure on GBP.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has been declining during today's Asian session and is currently trading at 0.7240. AIG Manufacturing PMI data were positive. In January, the indicator grew from 49.5 to 52.5 points. However, the Australian currency was unable to strengthen due to the weakness of the real estate market, whose condition continues to deteriorate. In January, housing prices again fell by 1%, and on an annualized basis they declined by 5.6%.

USD/JPY

Quotes of USD/JPY at the Asian session were mainly traded in the range of 108.90–108.80. The latest Japanese statistics turned out to be strong. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% (the lowest since 1992). And Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose in January from 50.0 to 50.3 points.

Gold

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1317.15. The decline is happening against the backdrop of investor hopes that the US and the PRC will sign a trade deal.
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  #734  
Old 04-02-2019, 07:44
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and has now dropped to 1.1440 (–0.12%). The dollar is strengthened against the background of positive January data from the US labor market. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. However, investors attach greater importance to employment growth: the indicator increased from 206K to 296K. Also, the positions of the US currency were strengthened by the statistics on Manufacturing PMI. In January, the indicator grew from 54.3 to 56.6 points. Finally, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a voting member of the FOMC, James Bullard hinted once again that there would be no further rate increase in the near future. In an interview to CNBC, he noted that "the level of rates is very good where it is today", and "now it’s time to wait and see how the economy develops".

During the day, the data on the volume of factory orders in the United States for November will be published. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3%, which may provide additional support for the American currency.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD in the Asian session goes down smoothly. By now the pair has dropped to 1.3065 (–0.07%). The British currency is under pressure from the poor statistics and the uncertainty of Brexit. Manufacturing PMI, published on Friday in the UK, fell sharply in January and reached 52.8 points, the lowest in the last three months. The situation with Brexit continues to be deadlock, which negatively affects the pound. The UK is seeking to make alternative arrangement on backstop, but the EU does not intend to renegotiate the issue. British Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox, called such a position of European officials "irresponsible." Meanwhile, the Prime Minister Theresa May still intends to go to Brussels and seek new concessions.

During the day, the data on Construction PMI in January will be published in the UK. It is expected that the figure will fall for the second month in a row, this time from 52.8 to 52.6 points. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD opened trading week with the decline, dropping to around 0.7225 (–0.29%). The Australian dollar is weakening due to negative data on the number of building approvals. In December, on a monthly basis, their number decreased again (for the third month in a row), this time by 8.4%. In total, last year reduction was 22%. The decline in housing prices has resulted in the refusal of companies to construct new buildings, which leads to a reduction in the construction sector and pressure on the Australian currency.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair in the Asian session rose reaching 109.75 (+0.26%). The US dollar is strengthening against the yen due to the positive labor market data, which in general turned out to be better than expected. In addition, the confidence in the postponement of a new tightening of the Fed monetary policy is being strengthened, which also supports the US currency.

Gold

Gold quotes are corrected downwards and reached the level of 1312.15 (–0.42%). The price is falling against the general strengthening of the dollar due to strong data on the US labor market.
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  #735  
Old 05-02-2019, 07:35
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was traded within the range 1.1439–1.1428. In general, negative data on production orders in the USA and the threat of a new government shutdown put pressure on the US currency. Factory orders in November, instead of the expected growth of 0.3%, declined by 0.6% for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, the US government was threatened with a new shutdown, since its current funding will only last until February 15. The contract of the Presidential Administration and the Democrats implied that they would conclude an agreement and seek USD 5.7 billion to build a wall on the Mexican border, but so far it has not been reached. President Donald Trump has already called further negotiations useless. The latest shutdown caused damage to the national economy in the amount of USD 6 billion, so the threat of a new closure unnerves the market.

Today, President Trump will speak in Congress and will share his plans for the future. Also during the day, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of economic statistics. January data on the euro area's Services PMI (probably the level of 50.8 points will remain), as well as on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (probably decreasing to 57.0 points) and on retail sales in the euro area (a decrease is probable) will be released.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair was moderately growing and is now trading at 1.3040. In general, the British currency continues to remain under pressure. Prime Minister Theresa May continues consultations on Brexit deal with Members of Parliament. Some hope of a compromise with the EU came after German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, noted that new British proposals on the Irish border should be heard.

During the day, the January the UK Services PMI is expected to be published, which, following the Manufacturing and Construction PMI, may be weak (a decrease from 51.2 to 51.1 points is expected), which may put additional pressure on the pound.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD demonstrated ambiguous dynamics. At first, it dropped to 0.7192, but then it has won the losses back and is now trading at around 0.7260. December data on retail sales in Australia were poor. On a monthly basis, the indicator decreased by 0.4%, while in quarterly terms it slowed down from 0.2% to 0.1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia expectedly kept the interest rate at around 1.50%, but in the accompanying statements the regulator expressed optimism, which supported the national currency. The RBA officials continue to wait for further reductions in unemployment and inflation growth to target levels, but due to global trade tensions, the downside risks in the economy have increased.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the growth to 110.00, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

Gold

Gold quotations rose to 1315.00 during the Asian session. Investors fear a sharpening of the political struggle in the United States and the possibility of another government shutdown, which is fraught with new multi-billion dollar losses.
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  #736  
Old 06-02-2019, 07:53
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair was going down and is now traded at 1.1395 (–0,08%). The dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of a speech by US President Donald Trump in Congress, where the unprecedented growth of the national economy in the past two years was mentioned. In particular, the creation of 5.3M new jobs, more than 600K of which was new jobs in production, a decrease in unemployment and a rise in wages were noted.

During the day, data on changes in the trade balance (the deficit is expected to decrease to –54.0B dollars), data on Nonfarm Productivity (Q4), as well as data on Unit Labor Costs (Q4) will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is moving in the lateral channel and is now trading at 1.2950. The British currency fell sharply yesterday, amid a decline in Services PMI from 51.2 to 50.1 points. Prime Minister Theresa May continues her visit to Northern Ireland, during which she expects to discuss changes in the backstop mechanism.

No significant macroeconomic releases are expected today in the UK.

AUD/USD

During today's Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows a sharp decline against the background of the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, in particular his comments on monetary policy. The head of the regulator said that the board of the Bank continues to carefully assess the prospects for the development of the economy and does not see compelling reasons for changing the level of rates in the short term. The pair has lost 0.99% and is currently trading around 0.7135.

USD/JPY

Quotations of the pair USD/JPY during the Asian session had ambiguous dynamics. After the decline to 109.60, the quotes corrected to the level of 109.80. In the absence of significant economic news in Japan, the movement of the instrument is technical in nature and is focused on data from the United States.

Gold

Gold quotations declined to 1313.00 during the Asian session.
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  #737  
Old 07-02-2019, 07:49
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EUR/USD

In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair consolidated after a decline and traded mostly in a narrow range of 1.1366–1.1357. The market positively assessed the comments of US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who noted that trade negotiations with representatives of the PRC are going very productively and the parties intend to make every effort to conclude a big trade deal before the beginning of March. Mnuchin will lead the US delegation, which will go to Beijing next week for a new round of trade negotiations. The dollar was under pressure from comments by former Fed Head, Janet Yellen, who supposed that the regulator could lower the interest rate in the event of a weakening global economic growth. Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not contain new information on monetary policy. He noted only that in the next decade, the United States will face an increase in the gap in the level of citizens' well-being and urged to fight it.

Today, there should be a meeting between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU officials to discuss changes in the terms of the Brexit deal. Its results can cause significant volatility in the market.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was traded within the narrow range 1.2935–1.2925. In addition to negotiations between representatives of the UK and the EU in Brussels, investors are preparing for the meeting of the Bank of England. The rate is expected to remain at the same level of 0.75%. Probably, under conditions of uncertainty with Brexit, the British regulator will not accept any change in monetary policy. However, Mark Carney can share his vision of the economic situation and action plans of the Bank of England in the event of a tough Brexit.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair continued declining at the Asian session and is now trading at 0.7093. Yesterday's comments from the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, continue to exert pressure on the Australian currency. The official said that he had previously assumed a further increase in interest rates, but now the position of the regulator has become more balanced. Investors interpreted these words as a hint at the possibility of reducing the rate. Currently, trade tensions, slowing global growth and the weakness of the Australian construction market contribute to this.

USD/JPY

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY quotes had ambiguous dynamics. After the decrease to the level of 109.71, the price won back most of the losses and is now at the level of 109.95. Japanese investors follow the news of the US-China trade negotiations and are encouraged by the latest statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the parties' desire to conclude a deal before the beginning of March. On the other hand, pressure on the yen is exerted by weak data on the Leading Index. The indicator has been falling for the third month in a row reaching the level of 97.9 points in February, making the lowest indicator since April 2016.

Gold

Quotes of gold in the Asian session continued to decline and are now trading at 1304.75. The weakening of the price is due to the prospects for the US and China to reach a trade deal.
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  #738  
Old 08-02-2019, 07:20
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EUR/USD

The European currency is relatively stable against the US dollar during trading at the Asian session on February 8. Investors take profits after a confident euro rally throughout the current trading week.

The US currency continues to be in demand among investors, despite the publication of poor macroeconomic data. In addition, the market is actively discussing possible postponing of the planned meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping from February to the end of March. In general, optimism around the possible completion of the US-Chinese trade conflict has been declining recently, and the White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said that the countries are still far from concluding a deal.

European macroeconomic releases are often weak. The ECB economic bulletin, which had a significant pressure on the euro position, was published the day before. The document notes that growing external negative factors lead to an increase in risks for the European economy. Economic indicators show negative dynamics, therefore, in the near future, the regulator expects a slowdown in economic growth. For 2019, the growth forecast was revised from the previous +1.9% to +1.3%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in both directions during the Asian session on February 8. The British currency reacted quite actively to the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England the day before, but managed to show a slight increase in the afternoon session, having corrected after a steady decline throughout the week.

As expected, the Bank of England retained its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, and the decision was unanimous. The regulator also did not change other parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the volume of the bond purchase program at 435B pounds. At the same time, the Bank of England lowered forecasts for economic growth for the current year from 1.7% to 1.2%, noting a significant increase in uncertainty, primarily due to Brexit.

The market is waiting for the outcome of negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU leaders on additional amendments to the Brexit agreement on the Irish border.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows a negative trend during the Asian session on February 8, approaching strong support at the level of 0.7000. The instrument is under pressure from the RBA meeting minutes. The regulator has revised downward its own forecasts for economic growth for 2019-2020. At the end of this year, the RBA expects Australian economy to grow by 2.75% YoY and does not expect a change in this indicator by 2020.

The regulator also notes a significant reduction in inflation risks. By June 2019, the Consumer Price Index may slow down to +1.25% from the current +1.8%, after which it will gradually recover and reach target level of 2% closer to mid-2020.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to trade lower against the Japanese yen, but instrument activity remains quite low. Statistics from Japan published during the Asian session on February 8 did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the pair.

Household Spending in Japan rose by 0.1% YoY in December after declining by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts had expected a more active growth of 0.8% YoY. Average Cash Earnings indicator, which shows the average pre-tax income of an employee, increased by 1.8% YoY, having accelerated by 0.1% since last month.

Gold

Gold prices are consolidating after an attempt to reduce this week. The day before, prices showed an increase, departing from local lows amid increased uncertainty around the trade conflict between the PRC and the US and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data. In particular, the market reacted negatively to the slowdown in the German economy and the release of updated forecasts from the ECB.
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  #739  
Old 11-02-2019, 07:20
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EUR/USD

The European currency shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session on February 11, still under pressure after a confident "bearish" rally last week. At the end of the week, the pair did not show the expected pullback, because the market received information that was able to support the US currency.

The Administration of US President Donald Trump confirmed his intention to hold official talks with China and announced a meeting in Beijing on February 14-15. Many experts believe that even if the negotiations do not end with the signing of a final agreement, the current import prices will remain at the same levels.

On Monday, the market does not expect the release of a large amount of interesting macroeconomic data from the euro area and the United States. Investors will focus on statistics on consumer inflation from Switzerland, Norway and Denmark. With the opening of the American session, preliminary data on the dynamics of costs per labor unit for the Q4 2018 will come to the market.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading in both directions, remaining in the area of 1.2900. At the end of the last trading week, the instrument managed to show a "bullish" correction, but no significant growth occurred. During the Asian session on February 11, the trading activity of the British currency remains rather low, as investors expect new drivers to appear in the market.

Today, the publication of interesting statistics from the UK is expected. The focus will be on preliminary data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q4 2018. The indicators are expected to decrease: +0.3% QoQ and +1.4% YoY against the previous +0.6% QoQ and +1.5% YoY. Investors will also be interested in December statistics on manufacturing production. Here, analysts expect improvements in dynamics: +0.2% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in November.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during the Asian session on February 11, corrected after a slurred decline at the end of last week. More confident correction of the Australian currency is hampered by the strengthening of the US dollar, which received additional support last Friday, after the administration of Donald Trump announced a meeting with the leaders of the PRC in Beijing.

On Monday, interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia is not expected, so investors will continue to rely mainly on data from the United States. In the meantime, moderate support for AUD is provided by published data from China. In particular, the rate of new loans issued in January rose sharply from 1080 to 2970 billion yuan.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows growth during the Asian session on February 11, correcting after the "bearish" end of the week. The instrument is supported by positive news around the US-PRC trade conflict. As it became known at the end of last week, the final meeting of the heads of the United States and China will be held in Beijing on February 14-15.

The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument contributes to the fact that the markets of Japan are closed on Monday due to the celebration of the National Foundation Day.

Oil

Oil quotes continue to trade in both directions, being under pressure from the fairly strong position of the US currency in the market. Previously, an additional growth factor was the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade conflict, especially after Donald Trump said on Thursday that he did not intend to meet with Xi Jinping before the deadlines for concluding a deal. However, on Friday Trump's administration announced a meeting of heads of the two states in Beijing on February 14-15.

Additional support for prices is provided by OPEC actions and US sanctions against Venezuela. Last week it became known that in January Saudi Arabia reduced oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day. New sanctions against Venezuela could reduce the total export volume by another 300-500 thousand barrels per day.
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Old 12-02-2019, 07:14
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EUR/USD

The European currency continues to remain under pressure, updating local lows against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, at the Asian session on February 12, the instrument once again attempts correction. Investors are quite optimistic about the dollar against the background of the emerging progress on the issue of the US-China trade conflict. In turn, the euro is under pressure from disappointing macroeconomic statistics, reflecting a significant slowdown in the region’s major economies, in particular Germany. In addition, the market remains in suspense before Brexit, which will undoubtedly affect the economic situation. Today, investors will focus on speeches by the heads of the German Federal Bank, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

GBP/USD

The British pound shows sluggish corrective growth at today's Asian session, correcting after a significant decline in the beginning of the week, which led to an update of the local lows of January 21. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics in the instrument, in addition to a fairly strong position of the dollar in the market, was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Industrial production in December decreased by 0.5% MoM and 0.9% YoY after a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 1.3% YoY last month. The GDP in December decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.2% in November. In quarterly terms, the growth rate of the economy fell sharply from +0.6% QoQ to +0.2% QoQ, which, however, coincided with the expectations of analysts.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of 4 January. The growth of AUD takes place against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and is largely technical in nature. NAB Business Confidence rose from 3 to 4 points in January. NAB Business Survey jumped from 2 to 7 points over the same period, while the forecast was 4 points. At the same time, the Home Loans indicator reflected a decline in loans issued in December by 6.1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in November. Analysts had expected "bearish" trend to strengthen, but counted on only –2.0% MoM decline.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of December 28, 2018. The markets of Japan were closed on Monday due to a national holiday, so the dynamics of the instrument was subject to external factors. During the Asian session on February 12, investors are awaiting the publication of not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Among it, Tertiary Industry Activity Index in January and a preliminary estimate of Machine Tool Orders in January can be highlighted.

Oil

Oil prices showed a negative trend at the beginning of the week, but managed to correct closer to the end of the afternoon session on February 11. Quotes are falling due to the growth of drilling activity in the United States, as was recorded in the Baker Hughes report at the end of the last trading week. Additional pressure comes from the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite the preliminary agreements reached on the date of commencement of the official meeting of heads of the two states. If negotiations fail, the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods on March 1. Similar responses will be taken by China, which will further complicate the situation. Today, investors are focused on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock for February 8. The previous report reflected the growth of stocks by 2.514 million barrels.
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Old 13-02-2019, 07:48
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EUR/USD

In the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair rose to the area of 1.1340 (+0.11%). The US currency is weakening, despite the positive comments by US President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, made the day before. Trump said he was ready to postpone the expiration of the trade truce from March 2, if there is a serious chance to sign a trade deal. Speaking in Mississippi on Tuesday, Powell noted that the US economy looks strong, resulting in low unemployment and good economic growth. However, the regulator will continue to look for ways to combat poverty.

During the day the publication of important statistical data is expected. The euro area's December statistics on the volume of industrial production promises to be weak. On an annualized basis, production could be reduced for the second month in a row, by another 3.2%. On a monthly basis, a reduction of 0.4% is possible. In the United States, January inflation data will be released. On an annualized basis, the Consumer Price Index may drop significantly from 1.9% to 1.5%, and the Core Consumer Price Index can decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%. Current forecasts do not contribute to the strengthening of neither the dollar nor the euro.

GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD rose to the level of 1.2920 (+0.24%). Investors were not scared by the pessimistic comments of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Speaking on Tuesday, he called on the British parliament to break the impasse over Brexit, warning that withdrawing from the EU without a deal would be an economic shock for the UK, which is especially dangerous against the backdrop of China’s recession and world trade tensions. Currently, investors are curtailing activity, waiting for the resolution of the situation. Carney noted that a 3% decline in the Chinese economy will lead to a reduction in world GDP by 1%, and the introduction of the US additional 10% export tariffs on leading trading partners could reduce world production by 1%.

During the day, the market is waiting for the publication of the January data on inflation in the UK. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index on an annualized basis will continue to decline and for the first time since January 2017 it will fall below the target level, reaching 1.9%. The Core Consumer Price Index can remain at the same level of 1.9%. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

AUD/USD

In the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair rose to the area of 0.7132 (+0.55%) against the background of the positive February data on the Consumer Sentiment Index in Australia. After a decrease by 4.7% in January, the index rose by 4.3% in February, which is encouraging investors. However, the overall situation with the Australian economy remains alarming, helped by the weakening of the Australian construction market and world trade tensions.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the USD/JPY pair rose in the Asian session, reaching 110.60 (+0.14%). As there is a lack of key economic releases in Japan, the movement of JPY is of technical nature. Investors are waiting for the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the PRC and the United States, held in Beijing.

Gold

Quotes of gold in the Asian session are corrected upwards after a significant fall on Tuesday. Currently, the price has reached the level of 1314.00 (+0.23%) and almost won back the positions lost the day before.
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Old 14-02-2019, 07:56
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD is corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. The price has reached the level of 1.1282 (gaining 0.24%). Yesterday investors' hopes raised amid the information about the likely meeting of the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping with the leaders of the American trade delegation Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer since both parties can manage to conclude a deal before the end of the truce on March 2. The latest data on inflation in the United States were also positive. In January, the consumer price index fell less than expected by the market and amounted to 1.6%. Core CPI remained at 2.2%.

During the day, the market awaits the publication of data on the Eurozone GDP in 4Q2018. The indicator is expected to remain at 0.2% QoQ and at 1.2% YoY. In the United States, statistics on sales will be published. According to forecasts, the indicator may reduce from 0.2% to 0.1%, which may cause pressure on USD.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD was rising after a significant decline on Wednesday. Quotes have reached the level of 1.2870 (gaining 0.22%). Investors are waiting for the situation around Brexit to develop. Yesterday, there was the information that the European Commission may agree to postpone the withdrawal of Britain from the EU from March 29 this year. However, later, Prime Minister Theresa May said in the Parliament that she intends to complete Brexit by the due date. Today, a new debate on the further steps of the UK regarding the deal with the EU should be held in the House of Commons.

AUD/USD

The pair AUD/USD was growing at the Asian session and has now reached the level of 0.7123 (adding 0.29%). Investors are hoping for a possible conclusion of the US-China trade deal, the likelihood of which is indicated by the upcoming meeting of PRC President Xi Jinping and the American representatives Steven Mnuchin and Robert Lighthizer. In the evening, the market is waiting for the speech of the assistant to the head of the RBA, Christopher Kent, with the report "Financial Conditions and the Australian Dollar", which may contain hints on the regulator's further policy.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to the level of 110.85 was replaced by growth and now the instrument is at 111.10. Statistics released today showed Japanese GDP growth in 4Q2018 by 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which can be considered a good result after the economic contraction in Q3. GDP growth was provided by an increase in capital expenditures of companies by 2.4%. However, further economic growth may be hindered by a new sales tax, which the Japanese government is going to impose this year.

Gold

During the Asian session, gold quotes are corrected upwards after a significant decline on Wednesday. Now, the price is at the level of 1309.00 (having added 0.31%).
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  #743  
Old 15-02-2019, 07:30
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EUR/USD

During the Asian session, the pair EUR/USD was correcting down after Thursday growth. Currently, the price is at the level of 1.1282, having lost 0.1%. Yesterday, the dollar was pressured by a number of negative factors. Statistics on US retail sales for December was weak. The sales volume unexpectedly fell by 1.2%, and it was even 3.9% in the e-commerce sector. This decline was the biggest in 9 years, it could put pressure on GDP. Fed spokeswoman Lael Brainard said she was concerned about the state of the American economy, as the risks to its growth are increasing. But most of all, the market was alarmed by information that President Donald Trump could sign a draft security agreement between Democrats and Republicans, while simultaneously imposing a state of emergency in several states. Thus, the government will not be closed, but the administration will be able to finance the border wall, bypassing Congress.

During the day, data on retail sales in the United States will be published. In December, the figure may remain at 0.2%.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the pair GBP/USD traded within the lateral range of 1280.00-1.2788. Yesterday, the pound was pressured due to another defeat of Teresa May in parliament. Deputies of the House of Commons rejected a proposal that would confirm the government’s mandate for further negotiations on Brexit. 258 voted for the proposal, and 303 parliamentarians opposed it. Some representatives of the Conservative Party abstained, which predetermined the defeat of May. This vote did not have legal force, but it showed the instability of positions and raised doubts that the Prime Minister would be able to persuade the parliament to approve the deal with the EU.

During the day, data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published. In January, the figure may grow by 0.2%, and YoY, from 3.0% to 3.4%. If the forecast proves to be true, this may render support to GBP.

AUD/USD

During the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD had an ambiguous dynamic. The decline to 0.7078 was replaced by a corrective growth, as a result of which part of the losses was won back. Now the instrument is at the level of 0.7090, having lost about 0.15%. AUD is pressured by weak Chinese inflation data. In January, the consumer price index in China slowed growth and amounted to 1.7%. In Melbourne, RBA Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, noted that one should not be surprised at some weakening of AUD in view of a reduction in global economic activity and forecasts of deterioration of trade in Australia itself.

USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY had ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session. The decline to 110.25 was replaced by growth to the level of 110.36. As a result, the pair lost 0.1%. JPY is generally pressured by weak data on the volume of industrial production in Japan. In December, it declined for the second consecutive month, this time by 0.1%.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold rose, reaching 1314.00 and adding about 0.6%.
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Old 19-02-2019, 07:28
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EUR/USD

The euro is trading in a downtrend during the Asian session on February 19, after a slight rise yesterday. Monday’s growth was largely technical in nature, as US markets were closed on the occasion of a national holiday, and there was no interesting macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Investors' are focused on the US-Chinese trade negotiations, as well as the Brexit deal. This week, the second round of negotiations will take place in Washington, and investors are still hoping for a favorable outcome. The situation around Brexit is somewhat more complicated. Given the reluctance of the parties to make additional compromises, and the limited time to resolve these issues, the chances of a "tough" Brexit are very high.

GBP/USD

The British pound returns to decline during the Asian session, after updating local highs yesterday. Investors are extremely concerned about the prospects for Brexit and fear the worst scenario. The week, the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the heads of particular EU countries will be held. May will try again to make changes to the final agreement regarding the Irish border, despite the fact that the EU has previously stated a tough position on this issue. On February 19, investors expect the publication of a block of statistics on the labor market. In particular, analysts expect some increase in average wages in December from 3.3% 3MoY to 3.4% 3MoY. The unemployment rate in December should remain at 4%.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading in a downtrend against the US one, declining as the market becomes saturated with the news. USD is in demand amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for trade negotiations with China, which inspire hope that an agreement will be reached before the scheduled deadline on March 1. Published today, the minutes of the RBA meeting on February 5 meeting did not provide any support to the instrument. The regulator noted an improvement in the labor market but also pointed to a sharp increase in external risks in the past few months. By the end of 2019, the RBA expects the economy to grow by about 3%; later, the GDP dynamics may slow down to an average of 2.75% by mid-2020.

USD/JPY

On Monday, the US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen and shows ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session on February 19. There are quite a few new growth drivers on the market, so investors rely on previous signals. In particular, the dollar is supported by good prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China. In turn, the pressure comes from internal political conflicts and the soft position on the Fed, which took a pause in the interest rate increase cycle. Trading activity will begin to grow by Wednesday when Japan publishes January import and export data, and the FOMC meeting minutes would be released in the US.

Oil

Oil prices continue to trade in an upward trend, updating local highs amid a noticeable improvement in the prospects for further reductions in oil production among OPEC countries. Earlier, Russia and Saudi Arabia declared a possibility to reduce production volumes substantially more than was expected by the cartel agreement signed earlier. The quotes are also supported by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. In turn, concerns about the slowdown in China’s economy serve as a strong deterrent. The growth of drilling activity in the US also continues to have a negative impact on prices.
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Old 20-02-2019, 06:51
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EUR/USD

The European currency is trading in an upward trend against the US dollar, updating local highs since February 7. On February 19, the euro managed to show good growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. In particular, investors have reacted negatively to Italian data on industrial orders and production. In December, the volume of orders decreased by 1.8% MoM with a decrease in sales dynamics by 3.5% MoM (significantly below than analysts' forecasts). The US currency is still vulnerable, as the market is waiting for the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. However, since President Donald Trump yesterday announced his readiness to give an additional 60 days to negotiate, this process can be fairly long.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a sharp rise against the US dollar on Tuesday, marking a new local maximum since February 4. The pound was strongly supported by data from the labor market, which inspired confidence in the stability of the economy in front of Brexit. The average salary (with premiums) in December increased by 3,4% 3MoY, which coincided with the data of last month and is the most powerful positive dynamics over the past 10 years. Still, analysts expected a slightly stronger growth (3.5% 3MoY). In December, The number employed increased by 167K, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of 140K. The employment rate was the best since the beginning of 2018. Today, investors are focused on the meeting of British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the Asian session on February 20, being close to its two-week highs. Investors play the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Australia, but these data do not provide any significant support to the instrument. Thus, the Westpac index of leading economic indicators in January showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.3% MoM in December. The level of wages for 4Q2018 showed an increase of 0.5% QoQ and 2.3% YoY, which was slightly worse than analysts' forecasts (0.6% QoQ and 2.3% YoY). It is likely that the trading will be rather sluggish today, as investors await the publication of the January report on the Australian labor market on Thursday.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows moderate growth against the Japanese currency, gradually recovering to local highs of February 14. During the Asian session, the yen is pressured by weak data on the dynamics of imports and exports from Japan. In January, imports declined by 0.6% YoY after rising by 1.9% YoY in December. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.8% YoY. Exports for the same period collapsed by 8.4% YoY after falling by 3.9% YoY last month. Experts were expecting a decline of 5.5% YoY. Due to the strong discrepancies in the dynamics of imports and exports, the total trade balance in January reached a mark of -1415.2 billion Japanese yen, which is significantly worse than analysts' forecasts of -1011.0 billion.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating after updating local highs at the beginning of this week. The dynamics of the instrument is largely due to technical factors, as investors continue to monitor the situation with the US-China trade negotiations. Despite the steady decline in production by OPEC countries, the market is concerned about a possible decline in demand, especially from China. On Wednesday, investors await the publication of the API report on oil reserves by February 15. The last report reflected a reduction of 0.998 million barrels.
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EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from local highs of February 6. The reason for the depreciation was the strengthening of USD amid a rather optimistic process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. The minutes of the last Fed meeting also had a noticeable effect. On February 21, the round of talks should end with a summit meeting, after which it will become clear whether additional time is needed, or the parties will be able to find a compromise before the current deadline of March 1. On Thursday, investors are focused on European statistics on the dynamics of business activity. The composite Markit Manufacturing PMI may increase in February from 51.0 to 51.1 points.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound has corrected against the US dollar and is again trying to grow during the Asian session on February 21. Investors are playing out ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States and are following the outcome of the negotiations of the British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, which took place yesterday. Despite the optimistic tone of the final communiqué, analysts are still afraid of delaying the process, as the postponement of the Brexit deadlines does not seem to be impossible. Anyway, the document reflected the consent of the parties to further work aimed at finding opportunities for the most comfortable implementation of Brexit process for all participants. Both parties also confirmed once again that they would not accept the appearance of a “hard border” on the island of Ireland.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth during the Asian session on February 21, responding to the appearance of a strong report on the labor market. At the same time, investors very quickly lost their “bullish” sentiments, which led to a correction of the instrument to the opening levels. According to the report, in January, employment rose by 39.1K jobs after rising by 21.6K last month. Analysts expected a much more modest growth of 15.0K. The share of the employed population increased slightly and amounted to 65.7% in January, with an expected level of 65.6%. The unemployment remained unchanged at 5%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local highs since February 14. During the Asian session on February 21, the instrument is trading in both directions due to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the expectation of new drivers in the market. Nikkei manufacturing sector activity index in February showed a decline from 50.3 to 48.5 points, breaking down the psychological level of 50 points for the first time since September 2016. With the opening of the American session, the publication of similar indicators is expected in the United States.

Oil

Oil prices resumed growth after some consolidation, receiving support from increased optimism about the US-China negotiation process. On Thursday, there should be a final meeting, which may mark the parties reaching a compromise. Otherwise, Trump's administration will probably try to push the March deadline, as previously noted in the president's speeches. A certain pressure on the quotes was exerted by the yesterday report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected the growth of stocks as of February 15 by 1.260 million barrels (after a decrease of 0.998 million over the previous period). On Thursday, investors are awaiting the publication of the report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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EUR/USD

On Thursday, the euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar. Investors are focused on European business activity statistics and published minutes of the ECB meeting held on January 24th. in February, the Composite Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed an increase from 51.0 to 51.4 points, above the analysts' expectations of 51.1 points. Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 50.5 to 49.2 points while the forecast was 50.3 points. Germany made a significant contribution to the weakening of the index. In February, the German index fell from 49.7 to 47.6 points, once again recalling the problems in the country's economy. The published ECB protocols also were ambiguous: on the one hand, the regulator is preparing measures for additional support of banks; on the other, it is seriously considering the possibility of raising the interest rate in early autumn. On February 22, investors expect the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi.

GBP/USD

The British pound is being corrected against the US dollar after active growth at the beginning of the week. The market is still focused on the Brexit negotiations, but since the Tuesday meeting of Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, there were no new drivers on the market. The US macroeconomic statistics published lately does not dive appreciable support to USD. The data released on Thursday reflected a decline in Manufacturing PMI from 54.9 to 53.7 points, while the forecast was 54.7 points. The data on the dynamics of sales in the secondary housing market was an additional disappointment. In January, the index fell by 1.2% MoM after a sharp decline by 4.0% MoM last month. Experts expected to see a positive trend of +0.8% MoM.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar dropped significantly against the US dollar on Thursday, offsetting all growth results over the week. At the beginning of the Asian session, AUD was trading positively, receiving support from the strong report on the Australian labor market. However, the growth was short-lived, and after a few hours, investors began to fix their profits, pushing quotes down. In part, this happened due to the updated Westpac forecasts. But the main factor of the decline was the ban on imports of Australian coal for an indefinite period in the northern Chinese port of Dalian. Experts call the potential losses of the economy from the ban on imports very serious since Australia exported to China about 22% of all coal mined in 2018.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is correcting against the Japanese yen, retreating from local highs, updated in the middle of the week. The "bearish" dynamics is promoted by not so strong macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as by the general decline in risk investors. The market still fears that the negotiations between the United States and the PRC on a trade dispute may end in failure, which will lead to new aggravations from March 1. However, yesterday it was reported that countries are preparing six memorandums on major issues affecting the topics of forced technology transfer, the cybercrime, and others.

Oil

Oil prices are again prone to decline and retreat from the local highs of the beginning of the year. At the end of the week, the reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics, in addition to a number of technical factors, was published data on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy and growing concerns about the slowdown of the global economy. The report of the Ministry reflected the growth of oil reserves as of February 15 by 3.672 million barrels after an increase of 3.633 million over the previous period. Real growth turned out to be stronger than analysts' forecasts (3.080 million barrels). The position of OPEC countries, which confidently reduce production volumes, as well as US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil, are currently hindering a more confident decline. On Friday, the market is waiting for the data about the number of active platforms in the US by Baker Hughes
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