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  #761  
Old 18-03-2019, 07:42
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro ended the week with moderate growth. The instrument was able to update the local maxima of March 4, but, at the end of the daily session on Friday, investors returned to profit taking. EUR was supported by good data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in February. As expected, the price index rose by 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY, against -1.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY. The core CPI remained at 0.3% MoM, coinciding with the forecasts. In turn, published macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to meet market expectations. Industrial output in February rose by 0.1% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.4% MoM. New York FRB Manufacturing index in March fell from 8.8 to 3.7 points, with expectations of growth to 10.0 points. But the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has managed to support the dollar. In March, according to preliminary estimates, the index rose sharply from 93.8 to 97.8 points while the forecast was 95.3 points.

GBP/USD

In the past few days, the pound shows ambiguous dynamics. Investors are still focused on Brexit. Last week, the Parliament rejected the next version of the agreement on the country's withdrawal from the EU, after which it voted against Brexit without the deal and for extending the action of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty until June 30. Prime Minister Theresa May still hopes to convince parliamentarians to approve the current version of the agreement until March 21, which will allow the UK to request the European Council to slightly extend the dates. Otherwise, if the transaction is postponed until June 30 or a later date, the negotiations may be significantly delayed, and a full-fledged political crisis will take place in the UK. Among the EU countries, there is still no consensus regarding the postponement of Brexit. This issue is expected to be discussed at the EU summit this week.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar returned to growth on Friday and continues to actively develop "bullish" dynamics today, updating local highs of March 1. AUD is supported by the tense situation around the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the possible refusal of North Korea from further negotiations on nuclear disarmament. Investors also follow the domestic political situation in the USA. March 15, it became known that President Donald Trump put a veto on Congress resolution, which was supposed to cancel the earlier state of emergency on the border with Mexico. Recall that in this way Trump expected to receive the required USD 8 billion for the construction of the wall, while only USD 1.375 billion was allocated for this in the budget.

USD/JPY

The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamic against the Japanese yen. After updating local highs on March 15, the dollar is trading downwards against the background of technical factors and uncertain prospects for the US negotiations with the PRC and the DPRK. Today, flat dynamics is observed, which is also characterized by an extremely low level of volatility. The yen is pressured by statistics on imports and exports from Japan. In February, exports dropped by 1.2% YoY after falling by 8.4% YoY last month. The decline in imports was 6.7% YoY after a drop of 0.8% YoY in January. The experts were expecting -5.8% YoY. Such a significant decrease in the indicator allowed the trade surplus to slightly increase in February to 339 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be better than market expectations.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Friday, which was a market reaction to new data indicating a slowdown in the global economy and growth in US production. However, by the end of the daytime session, the instrument managed to win back almost all the losses, in particular, due to the publication of the Baker Hughes report. For the week of March 15, the number of active oil platforms in the United States decreased from 834 to 833 units, which was the fourth decline in a row. The quotes are also supported by the actions of OPEC+. At the moment, the reduction in the volume of oil supplies is even slightly ahead of the initially agreed figures, which allows leveling the active growth of production in the United States. The next meeting of OPEC+, which will decide on the current agreement on limiting production, will be held on April 17-18.
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  #762  
Old 19-03-2019, 07:00
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro continues to grow moderately against the US dollar, updating local highs of March 4. On Monday, after the update of the highs, the euro declined significantly due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, but the "bullish" mood on the instrument remained. Moderate support for the instrument was provided by data on the Eurozone trade balance. In January, the balance surplus increased from 16.0 billion to 17.0 billion euros, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, which suggested a decrease to 13.2 billion. In turn, the American statistics was neutral. The NAHB retail housing prices index in March remained at 62 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 63 points. On Tuesday, investors will be focused on a block of indicators on economic sentiment in the Eurozone and Germany from ZEW. Also, traders are interested in Construction PMI in the Eurozone in January.

GBP/USD

The British pound returned to decline on Monday, updating local lows of March 13. However, by the end of the day session, the instrument managed to win back almost half of the losses, and today's trading is going upwards. Yesterday, the pound was pressured by news that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow blocked Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal to hold a re-vote on the current version of the agreement with the EU. Bercow stated that the government could not put the same proposal to the vote twice. Thus, May will have to ask Brussels for a longer delay, since the process of developing a new agreement will be extremely difficult. The process of postponement itself can also be very painful since this requires the unanimous decision of all EU member states. Today, investors will pay attention to the data on the UK labor market in January/February.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows moderate growth, receiving support from the weak positions of the US currency. Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, responding to the publication of the RBA minutes of March 5 and the dynamics of housing prices. In 4Q2018, the housing price index decreased by 2.4% QoQ and 5.1% YoY, which was noticeably worse than the data for the previous period (-1.5% QoQ and -1.9% YoY). Analysts had expected -2.0% QoQ and -0.4% YoY. The published RBA protocol did not have a significant impact on the instrument since it did not show anything new. As before, the regulator complained about the growing external risks, especially in Europe and Asia, however, noted the positive impact of rising oil and coal prices.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has returned to decline against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 14 today. The US currency is weakening amid increasing uncertainty caused by the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics. In addition, investors are anxiously awaiting news regarding the US-China trade negotiations. Recently, the media reported that the meeting of the two heads of state could be postponed from late March to April, but it has not yet received official confirmation. The data on industrial production in Japan published on Monday provided the yen with moderate support: in January, the index rose by 0.3% YoY against the zero dynamics of last month.

Oil

Oil prices continued moderate growth during the new week in the market, supported by the efforts of OPEC+. After the meeting of the OPEC+ member countries in Azerbaijan, it was decided to cancel the April meeting of the cartel, where, as expected, the future of the current agreement was to be discussed. Thus, it is actually extended until June, when a new meeting is scheduled. In addition, exporting countries report the toughening of the obligations under the agreement, which allows the market to remain stable in the context of growing US oil production. On Tuesday, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of March 15.
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  #763  
Old 21-03-2019, 07:00
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose rapidly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of February 4. The reason for the emergence of a confident "bullish" dynamics was the weakening of the US currency amid the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. At the same time, which turned out to be the most important, the Fed clearly stated that it is not going to make two planned rate hikes this year. In 2020, as before, the regulator expects only a one-time rate increase. The euro could not strengthen more confidently due to the uncertainty around Brexit, as there is still no consensus regarding the postponement of the UK exit from the EU.

GBP/USD

The British pound closed Wednesday's trading with a steady decline, updating local lows of March 13. The "dovish" rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell practically did not support the weakened pound, although it contributed to the development of a minor correction. The instrument remains pressured by the rapidly delaying Brexit process, which threatens to exacerbate the internal political situation in the UK. Theresa May still expects a postponement to the end of June, while some representatives of the EU state the need for a longer delay. Some support for the pound yesterday was provided by the statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. In February, the consumer price index rose by 0.5% MoM and 1.9% YoY after the previous data of -0.8% MoM and 1.8% YoY. However, the core index in February slowed down from 1.9% YoY to 1.8% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows strong growth against the US one, supported by the soft position of the Fed and published macroeconomic statistics from Australia. In addition, the growth of AUD is promoted by the continuing uncertainty in the Brexit process and in the US-China trade negotiations. Today, the instrument is also trading in an uptrend, however, the "bulls" are facing significant resistance. Investors are focused on the report on the Australian labor market in February. The level of unemployment suddenly decreased from 5.0% to 4.9%. The last time the unemployment rate fell below 5% was in July 2011. At the same time, the employment level in February showed an increase of only 4.6K jobs, which is significantly lower than the growth of 39.1K last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 14.0K jobs.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, retreating to local minima of February 27. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics was the decision of the Fed to abandon the two planned rate hikes this year. Additional support for the yen was provided by the reduced investor interest in risk. In particular, the market reacted to the publication of updated forecasts from the Fitch agency. The forecast for the growth rate of the world economy in 2019 was revised from 3.1% to 2.8%. Next year, the global economy may grow by 2.8% instead of previous forecasts of 2.9%. Today the instrument is relatively stable, partly due to the closed markets in Japan on the occasion of a national holiday.

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow moderately, updating local highs of November 2018. Quotes are supported by data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a sharp reduction in oil stocks. As of March 15, reserves in US warehouses declined by a record 9.589 million barrels after declining by 3.862 million last week. Analysts predicted a slight increase by 0.309 million barrels. The "bullish" dynamics is also supported by the policy of OPEC+ and the expansion of US sanctions against Venezuela.
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  #764  
Old 22-03-2019, 07:59
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a confident decline against the US dollar on Thursday, departing from local highs of February 4, updated the day before. The decline in the pair was largely due to technical factors of the correction of USD after a long decline. In addition, investors fix their profits before the weekend. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which supported the dollar on Thursday, include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. In March, the figure rose sharply from -4.1 to 13.7 points, with a forecast of growth only to 4.5 points. Initial Jobless Claims for the week on March 15 decreased from 230K to 221K, which turned out to be better than market expectations (225K). Today, investors are focused on the statistics on business activity in the Eurozone (and separately France and Germany) and the United States. Also, the market expects representatives of the ECB Luis de Guindos and Yves Mersch to speak.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics on Thursday, updating the local minima of March 11. There were lots of drivers for GBP, so the dynamics was extremely mixed. As expected, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. The key rate remained at 0.75%, and the decision was made unanimously. The QE program has kept its volume of 435 billion pounds. In the accompanying statement, the BoE spoke a lot about the risks around Brexit, noting that it is now reasonable to take a wait-and-see attitude. Meanwhile, the EU has approved a deferment option for the UK. If parliament manages to agree on the deal, the final date will be postponed to May 22. Otherwise, the new deadline will be April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a corrective decline, retreating from local highs, updated on March 21. The reason for the appearance of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument was an ambiguous report on the Australian labor market in February. Investors were optimistic about the decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.9% but were disappointed with the extremely weak growth in the employment rate - by 4.6K after 39.1K last month. Additional pressure was provided by an indicator of credit card spendings. In February, it rose by 6.4% YoY after rising by 6.9% YoY in January. Experts expected a slowdown of only up to 6.8% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Thursday, recovering previously lost positions and retreating from the updated local minima of February 15. Technical factors contributed to the development of correctional dynamics for the dollar, as well as moderate optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before. Today, the instrument again is traded in both directions. Investors are focused on Japanese data on consumer prices and the Manufacturing PMI. The national consumer price index in February rose by 0.2%YoY after a similar increase in January. Analysts expected growth of up to 0.3% YoY. Excluding the price of fresh food, the index slowed down from 0.8% YoY to 0.7% YoY, while the forecast was 0.6% YoY. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in March remained at 48.9 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Thursday, retreating from local maxima following the large-scale correction of the US dollar. Quotes are still supported by the confident position of OPEC+, which promises a further restriction of production volumes by the largest suppliers. Additional support comes from data indicating a sharp decline in US oil stocks. On March 22, in addition to statistics on business activity, Baker Hughes will report on active oil platforms in the United States.
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  #765  
Old 25-03-2019, 07:37
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR ended the week last week with a steady decline against USD, renewing its lows since March 12. The development of the “bearish” dynamics was largely due to poor macroeconomic EU statistics, as well as growing concerns about the Brexit process and the US-China trade negotiations, which contributed to a decrease in investors’ interest in risk. The statistics released on Friday reflected a decline in Composite Manufacturing Markit PMI in March from 51.9 to 51.3 points against a forecast of growth to 52.0 points. Services PMI fell from 52.8 to 52.7 points. In addition, investors paid attention to data from Germany. German Manufacturing PMI fell from 47.6 to 44.7 points against the forecasts of growth to 48.0 points. German Service PMI fell from 55.3 to 54.9 points.

Today, during the Asian session, the pair is growing slightly. Traders are awaiting the publication of a block of on German IFO business sentiment statistics.

GBP/USD

On Friday, GBP rose against USD, being corrected after a significant decline on Thursday. The currency was supported by the EU’s decision to grant the United Kingdom a postponement of Brexit until May 22. However, the EU has put forward several conditions. If the British Parliament does not approve the existing version of the agreement with the EU, the postponement will be valid only until April 12. The document also excludes the possibility of additional negotiations on the agreement. Thus, Theresa May has time until March 29 to convince parliament to accept the current version of the agreement. Meanwhile, in the UK, the political crisis continues to flare up, and a petition published on the Internet for the abolition of Brexit has gained over 5 million signatures. Increasingly, information appears in the media about the growing number of ministers in favor of Teresa May’s resignation.

AUD/USD

On Friday, AUD steadily declined, balancing the active growth of the instrument on Wednesday, March 20. The weakness of the currency is due to the growing uncertainty on the Brexit and the negotiations between the United States of America and China. Meanwhile, on Friday, during a television interview, Donald Trump noted that the negotiation process was going well and was likely to lead to an agreement. Trump also commented on the government’s intention to retain a number of protective duties after signing the agreement, stressing that this would not prevent the resolution of existing conflicts.

Today, investors expect a small block of American and Australian statistics. In the US, the Chicago Fed National Activity in February will be published, and Australia, the February import and export data will be released. Also, the traders are focused on the speech of the economic adviser to the head of the RBA Luci Ellis.

USD/JPY

On Friday, USD fell sharply against the JPY, renewing its lows since February 11, under pressure from poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, in March, Markit Manufacturing PMI decreased from 53.0 to 52.5 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 53.6 points. Service PMI fell from 56.0 to 54.8 points, while the value was not expected to change. In turn, sales in the US secondary housing market in February rose sharply by 11.8% MoM after falling by 1.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected growth of + 2.2% MoM. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is moderately reducing, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market.

On Monday, the traders will focus on the publication of the Japanese activity index in all industries in January and the speech of the representative of the Bank of Japan, Yutaka Harada.

Oil

On Friday, oil prices declined moderately, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed the day before. Investors avoid additional risk in the face of new signals of a slowing global economy. In addition, traders are concerned about the lack of visible progress in the US-China trade negotiations and the exacerbation of the political crisis in the UK amid problems with Brexit. Meanwhile, prices are still supported by a policy of further reducing oil production, taken by OPEC +. Friday’s Baker Hughes Oil Rig report also had a positive effect on the rate. During the reporting week, the number of US rigs decreased from 833 to 824 units, which is the fifth decline in a row.
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  #766  
Old 26-03-2019, 07:11
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR rose steadily against USD, retreating from lows since March 12, renewed late last week. EUR was supported by an unexpectedly strong IFO Germany business sentiment data. The March German Business Expectations rose from 93.8 to 95.6 points while the forecast was 94.0 points. German IFO Business Climate Index jumped from 98.7 to 99.6 points, while analysts expected a decline to 98.5 points. German Current Assessment for the same period rose from 103.6 to 103.8 points, against the forecasts of a decline to 102.9 points. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument slightly increases, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. On Tuesday, traders will focus on US housing market data. In Germany, April GfK German Consumer Climate will be released.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP moved horizontally against USD and closed in the red zone. The currency is still under pressure from the uncertain situation around Brexit. Until the end of the week, Theresa May has to get agreement between the British parliament and the EU but parliamentarians are not likely to unite. The media gets information that an increasing number of ministers insist on the imminent resignation of the Prime Minister, and the idea of ​​a repeated referendum is growing stronger among the public sentiment. Yesterday, in her speech in the British Parliament, Theresa May acknowledged that she did not find enough support but would try to look for additional ways to bring the current version of the agreement to the third vote in parliament. Some analysts believe that May may take extreme measures and will offer parliamentarians approval of the agreement in exchange for his resignation. If the UK fails to approve a deal with the EU until March 29, on April 12, the country will have to follow the “hard” scenario.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD was actively growing against USD, balancing a decline at the end of the last trading week. The correction was due to a number of technical factors, while the macroeconomic background remained neutral. On Monday, a speech was made by the economic adviser to the head of the RBA, Lucy Ellis, which had no noticeable influence on the rate. Ellis's speech was devoted to household issues and in many respects repeated the main position of the regulator but she emphasized strong growth in the labor market. Over the past year, the employment rate has increased by more than 2%, while the unemployment rate has fallen below 5% for the first time in a long time (since 2011).

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD was trading ambiguously against the JPY, renewing its lows since February 8. The uncertain dynamics was due to the lack of significant macroeconomic publications at the beginning of the week. In addition, investors are concerned about the process of negotiations between the US and China on trade issues. Despite the assurances of Donald Trump that negotiations are proceeding well, the market fears a repetition of the North Korean scenario. A new round is due this week. Today, during the Asian session, USD is growing uncertainly. The instrument is supported by a document published on the eve of by Special Prosecutor Robert Muller, in which it is noted that a special commission did not find evidence of Donald Trump’s collusion with the Russian authorities during the 2016 election period.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose moderately, partially balancing the active decline at the end of last week. More confident gain is hampered by concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. In particular, investors fear that the negotiations between the US and China on a trade dispute may end in failure, which will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. In addition, the markets were afraid of a possible recession in the US, as the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds continues to decline steadily. On Tuesday, investors are focused on US Housing Starts data the dynamics of Retail Sales, and also on the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves in the United States.
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  #767  
Old 27-03-2019, 07:38
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.
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  #768  
Old 28-03-2019, 10:23
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, retreating to its lows since March 12, under pressure from technical factors and a further decline in investor interest in risk amid growing uncertainty in the market. In particular, traders have ambiguously reacted to the situation with Brexit in the UK after the British parliament adopted the amendment and took control of the country's exit from the EU. It is expected that today, in the parliament a vote on a number of issues with a discussion of possible options for the development of the situation will be held. Meanwhile, April GfK German Consumer Climate fell from 10.7 to 10.4 points against the forecasts of growth to 10.8 points, which was the lowest level since May 2017. During the Asian session on March 27, EUR is also weakening. Today, the investors are focused on the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi and a number of other regulator’s representatives, such as Peter Praet, Sabine Lautenschlager, Yves Mersch, and Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

GBP continues to trade ambiguously, sharply reacting to any changes around Brexit. Earlier this week, British parliamentarians adopted an amendment to the law, which allowed parliament to take control of the Brexit process (previously it was held by the government of Theresa May). Now the parliament can feel lighter and discuss the most varied exit scenarios. However, this can only help to clarify the preferences of parliamentarians, while there is no time and possibilities left to coordinate new changes with the EU. The UK must approve a version of the agreement by the end of the week; otherwise, on April 12 it will have to leave the EU without a deal.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD rose steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 21, after the publication of poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Building Permits decreased by 1.6% MoM in February after decreasing by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the indicator to –0.6% MoM. Housing Starts index also fell from 1.273 million to 1.162 million in February, which was worse than the forecast of 1.213 million. March Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased from 16 to 10 points, while the forecast was 12 points. However, today during the Asian session, AUD is weakening, quickly losing positions gained yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from statistics from China, indicating a sharp decline in profits of a number of large Chinese enterprises in January-February by 14%. The profit of large industrial enterprises decreased by 24.2% over the same period.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, partially balancing a sharp decline at the end of last week. The emergence of poor US macroeconomic statistics and the overall low level of traders’ interest in risk did not support JPY. Instead, investors focused on a summary of updated forecasts from the Bank of Japan. The document is of a generalizing nature and is published once a year after the next meeting of the regulator on interest rate issues. The Bank reaffirmed its commitment to a target inflation rate of 2%, which is one of the key parameters in choosing the vector of monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator devoted a significant part of the report to external economic risks, noting the slowdown in China’s economy and the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Oil

This week, oil prices are rising and approaching local highs, renewed a week ago, supported by market uncertainty, as well as interruptions in oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and several other countries. Yesterday’s weekly report of the American Institute of oil reserves in the United States reflected the growth of reserves by 1.927 million barrels at March 22. The previous report indicated a reduction in reserves by 2.133 million barrels. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a report on energy reserves from the US Department of Energy. If the official statistic confirms the growth of the indicator, the quotes may be slightly corrected downwards.
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  #769  
Old 01-04-2019, 07:12
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

On Friday, EUR declined steadily against USD, renewing its lows since March 8. The tense situation around Brexit and the protracted US-China trade negotiations continue to exert considerable pressure on the EUR. However, the course is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail sales rose by 0.9% MoM in February after rising by 2.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% MoM. In annual terms, sales growth accelerated to 4.7% YoY from the previous +3.1% YoY, which was significantly better than market forecasts +2.8% YoY. March Unemployment Rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9% as expected, while the Unemployed Number fell by 7K after falling by 20K in February. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is trading upwards, and investors are awaiting the publication of statistics on EU March Consumer Inflation. The instrument is also supported by data from China. March Caixin PMI index strengthened from 49.9 to 50.8 points, which was noticeably better than analysts' expectations.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading in different directions, renewing the lows since March 11. On Friday, UK macroeconomic statistics provided some support for the course, while tensions around Brexit did not allow the instrument to grow more confidently. 2018 Q4 GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY, which was slightly better than the market forecast +0.2% QoQ and +1.3% YoY. On March 29, another vote on Brexit deal was taken in the country's parliament. Despite all the efforts of Theresa May and the proximity of the deadlines set by the EU, the parliamentarians rejected the document again, which increases the risks of exit under the “hard” scenario. The country will have to leave the EU on April 12 if the agreement is not approved.

AUD/USD

On Friday, AUD rose moderately against USD, being corrected after a steady decline in the middle of the week. The course was supported by poor macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as the expectation of a positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. Today, during the Asian session, which opened with an upward gap, the instrument is trading in different directions. A positive gap was due to the PRC decision to postpone the introduction of new import duties on a number of American goods and strong data from China. Thus, March Service PMI rose from 54.3 to 54.8 points, while the forecast was 54.1 points. The March NBS Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 49.2 to 50.5 points. Analysts predicted growth only to 49.5 points.

USD/JPY

USD continues to grow moderately against JPY, renewing its highs since March 20. Last Friday, the market received a fairly large number of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the United States. Japanese data pleased traders with a confident increase in the Tokyo CPI from +0.6% YoY to +0.9% YoY but disappointed with a slowdown in the growth of Retail Sales and Industrial Production in annual terms. Statistics from the United States reflected the continued growth in New Home Sales in February and an increase in Consumer Confidence in March. Among the negative aspects are poor statistics on Personal Income and Expenditures of citizens in January-February, which was worse than market forecasts. Today, during the Asian session, JPY is moderately supported by statistics on the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. In March, the figure rose from 48.9 to 49.2 points, with the forecast of the preservation of the value.

Oil

On Friday, oil prices rose, renewing record highs since November 13, 2018. US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the policy of OPEC+, aimed at a systematic reduction in oil production, significantly support the instrument. US pressure on the Venezuelan energy source leads to a gradual abandonment of it in a number of other countries, in particular, in Japan. Baker Hughes report on the active oil platforms also had a positive effect on quotes. During the week, the number of drilling rigs in the United States of America decreased from 824 to 816 units, which was the sixth decline in a row.
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Old 02-04-2019, 07:28
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EUR/USD

EUR continues to decline against USD, renewing its lows since March 8. The instrument is under pressure from poor macroeconomic statistics from Europe and uncertain prospects around the Brexit process. Yesterday, investors were disappointed by March Markit manufacturing PMI, which fell sharply from 49.3 to 47.5 points, almost coinciding with analysts' forecasts of 47.6 points. According to preliminary estimates, CPI slowed down from +1.5% YoY to +1.4% YoY for the same period, while the forecasts did not suggest any changes. Core CPI rose by only 0.8% YoY in March after rising 1.0% YoY last month. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is also trading within a downtrend, and investors are awaiting the publication of European PPI statistics and a speech by ECB representative Peter Praet.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP rose, being corrected after a steady decline last week, due macroeconomic statistics from the UK and the United States of America, in addition, investors continued to monitor the situation around Brexit. March Markit manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 to 55.1 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 51.0 points. US index data were not so straightforward. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 54.2 to 55.3 points but Markit PMI indicated a decline from 53.0 to 52.4 points, which was worse than market expectations of 52.5 points. As for the situation around Brexit, there is no progress here. On Monday, the British parliament rejected all four alternatives, and earlier, on Friday, rejected the current version of the agreement with the EU for the third time. The situation leads to the fact that Britain will have to leave the EU on April 12 without a deal but some analysts expect that if the final transaction is not agreed, the government will have to ask for a significant postponement of the deadlines.

AUD/USD

AUD started trading a new week on Forex with a slight upward gap, which was caused by optimistic macroeconomic publications from China. In addition, Beijing has suspended the introduction of new import duties on a number of American goods, which indicates that in the process of trade negotiations with the United States there has been some progress. At the moment, the parties are preparing for the next round of talks to be held in Washington. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument is declining after the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting on interest rates. As expected, the regulator left the rate at 1.5%, noting that the current level is optimal for maintaining the economic situation in the country. The RBA complained about the growing external economic risks affecting the growth dynamics of the national economy again. The regulator has practically achieved the planned results on inflation, and in 2020, it expects consumer price growth over the target level of 2%.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose steadily against the JPY, renewing its highs since March 20, with the support of poor macroeconomic data from Japan. Thus, 2019 Q1 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index decreased from 24 to 21 points, while Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index fell from 15 to 8 points over the same period, while investors expected a decline only to 12 points. At the same time, March Nikkei manufacturing PMI rose from 48.9 to 49.2 points, which exceeded analysts' forecasts but still indicates negative trends in production. American statistics also was ambiguous. In particular, investors were disappointed with the data on Retail Sales. In February, the indicator fell by 0.2% MoM after rising 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts predicted growth by +0.3% MoM.

Oil

At the beginning of the new week, oil prices rose steadily, renewing its highs since November 2018. The quotes are still supported by a significant reduction in production, which was achieved thanks to the efforts of OPEC+ and, in particular, Saudi Arabia, which has noticeably exceeded its supply reduction plan. The development of "bullish" dynamics was also due to US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil. Today, the focus of investors is the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of March 25.
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Old 04-04-2019, 07:13
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EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

Last edited by MikhailLF; 04-04-2019 at 07:17.
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  #772  
Old 05-04-2019, 07:06
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EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on April 4, breaking the correctional growth that was formed the day before. The negative dynamics was supported by weak macroeconomic data on the volume of orders in the production sector from Germany, as well as published minutes of the ECB meeting. In February, the volume of orders collapsed by 4.2% MoM and by 8.4% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations + 0.3% MoM and -5.4% YoY. In January, the indicator decreased by 2.1% MoM and 3.9% YoY. The published protocols once again reflected the "dovish" position of the ECB. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi, decided to postpone a possible rate hike for next year, noting that a long period of low interest rates could adversely affect the stability of the region’s banking system, but at present these risks are acceptable. Additional pressure on the euro has an uncertain situation around Brexit and the proximity of the EU summit on April 10, at which the fate of the postponement for the UK will be decided.

GBP/USD

The British pound dropped significantly on Thursday, offsetting almost all of the growth since the beginning of the week. The instrument correction is largely due to technical factors, since the situation with Brexit, which is the main source of uncertainty, has changed slightly. Yesterday, the Parliament approved a bill on a new postponement, but there is still no consensus on this issue within the EU. Moreover, earlier the head of the European Commission announced that the UK would not receive new deferments and would have to leave the European Union on April 12 if the current version of the agreement was not approved. The fate of Britain is likely to be decided at the EU summit on April 10. Until that time, Theresa May has the opportunity to create a coalition with the opposition Labor Party to work out joint decisions on Brexit and to get approval for an agreement in parliament.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to grow moderately against the US one, supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from China and Australia. Optimistic signals from the US-China trade negotiations also make a positive impact. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said at a meeting with Vice Premier of the PRC State Council Liu He that the final agreement could be signed within a month. Both participants noted that the negotiations are very optimistic and at the current time have managed to achieve "tremendous progress". Today, the Australian currency is supported by the previously published AiG activity index in the construction sector. In March its value increased rapidly from 43.8 to 57.2 points. Also, investors are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market.

USD/JPY

The US dollar maintains an upward trend against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 15. The dollar is supported by data on applications for unemployment benefits published on Thursday. For the week of March 29, the number of Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 212K to 202K, with a forecast of growth to 216K. The number of secondary applications for the week of March 22 also decreased from 1.755 million to 1.717 million. The forecast assumed a decline only to 1.750 million. Today, the development of "bullish" dynamics is due to weak statistics from Japan. The index of wage changes in February dropped sharply by 0.8% YoY after falling by 0.6% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting the growth of 0.8% YoY. Household expenses in February slowed from 2.0% YoY to 1.7% YoY, while the forecast was 2.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating at the end of the week, but remain close to USD 70 per barrel. Quotes are pressured by published statistics from the United States, which indicated a sharp increase in stocks. In addition, production in the USA continues to increase. However, the actions of OPEC+ and the improved prospects for resolving the US-China trade dispute provide significant support to the instrument. Today, investors are focused on the March report on the US labor market, which may not meet all market expectations. In addition, the Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US is to be published.
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Old 08-04-2019, 08:12
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EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.
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  #774  
Old 09-04-2019, 07:11
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EUR/USD

The euro rose significantly against the US dollar on Monday, marking a new local maximum since March 27. The growth was mainly due to technical factors, while macroeconomic statistics from Europe remained ambiguous. February data from Germany indicated a sharp decline in imports and exports. Imports slowed down by 1.6% MoM after rising by 1.4% MoM last month. Exports collapsed by 1.3% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM. However, due to a sharp decline in imports, it was possible to achieve an increase in the trade surplus from 18.6 billion to 18.7 billion euros, while analysts expected a decline to EUR 17.0 billion. Today, the euro is trading with a slight "bullish" margin. It is likely that the dynamics of trading on Tuesday will remain moderate, since interesting macroeconomic publications are not planned. Investors are focused on Wednesday when the ECB’s interest rate decision is published and the EU Brexit summit begins.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, awaiting positive outcomes of the EU summit, which will be held on April 10. To date, Teresa May has not been able to get closer to the approval of the current agreement in Parliament, so everyone is only betting on the postponement of the terms of Brexit. Yesterday, the House of Commons approved a bill that bans the "tough" Brexit, that is, the country's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. Previously, this bill was approved in the House of Lords. However, in the matter of postponement, everything will depend on the EU, and not on the UK, since the consent of all the member countries is necessary to change the deadlines. On Tuesday, Teresa May will hold a series of meetings with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron and try to convince them to give a longer respite.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened markedly against the US dollar on Monday, receiving support against the background of the development of corrective sentiment on the US currency. The macroeconomic statistics published yesterday did not significantly support any of the currencies. The ANZ job vacancy rate in Australia in March fell sharply by 1.7% MoM after falling by 0.8% MoM last month. American statistics pointed to a reduction in production orders by 0.5% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, AUD is trading in an uptrend, receiving support from macroeconomic statistics. The volume of mortgage loans in February rose by 2.0% after declining by 2.5% last month. Analysts expected -2.0%. Investment borrowing for home construction in February also rose by 2.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is falling against the Japanese yen, retreating from local highs of March 15. At the same time, publications from Japan strengthen the yen a little. On Monday, investors were disappointed with data on the consumer confidence index, which fell in March from 41.5 to 40.5 points, while the forecast was for growth to 42.3 points. The Eco Watchers current situation index in March fell from 47.5 to 44.8 points, which was worse than market expectations of 46.7 points. The development index for the same period adjusted from 48.9 to 48.6 points (forecast 49.3 points).

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow steadily, updating record highs. Brent crude updated its highs on November 12, receiving support from the escalation of the conflict in Libya and a confident reduction in oil supplies under the leadership of OPEC+. Additional support for the instrument is provided by continued US sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil. Today, investors will focus on the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on oil reserves for the week of April 5. Recall that the last API report reflected growth of 2.963 million barrels, which was later confirmed by steady growth in stocks according to the US Department of Energy.
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Old 10-04-2019, 07:07
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EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, retreating from local highs of March 27. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics were the statements of US President Donald Trump about the readiness to impose duties on goods from the EU worth USD 11 billion. In his speech, Trump referred to the WTO report, according to which European Union subsidies to Airbus caused damage to the US economy. Immediately after the speech, it became known that the European Commission had begun to develop a response, which may cause a new trade war. The US trade dispute with China has not yet been crowned with the signing of a final agreement, but, according to Trump's assurances, this may take place by the end of April. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, and investors are awaiting the publication of the ECB's interest rate decision with the accompanying press conference of Mario Draghi. Also, on Wednesday, an extraordinary EU summit on Brexit will be held.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading ambiguously against the US dollar, remaining close to the level of 1.3000. Investors are waiting for a resolution of the impasse with Brexit on Wednesday, at an EU summit devoted entirely to this problem. The UK will receive a delay either until June 30, as requested by Teresa May, or till the end of the year, as suggested by the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Also on Wednesday, a block of interesting macroeconomic statistics is expected, namely data on industrial output, the index of services, and the growth rate of the UK economy in February (on a monthly basis).

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a decline against the US on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day updated local maxima of March 21. Moderate support was provided by strong data on the housing market. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in February rose by 2.6% MoM after declining by 2.3% MoM last month. The volume of mortgage loans issued in February rose by 2.0% MoM, contrary to forecasts of a decline by 2.0% MoM. Today, AUD began with a decline but managed to recover after the publication of Westpac consumer sentiment and the speech of the RBA Deputy Head, Guy Debelle. In April, the confidence index rose sharply by 1.9% MoM after falling by 4.8% MoM last month. Debelle's speech was of a general nature and did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. However, the official again complained about external economic risks, in particular, at the slowdown of the Chinese economy and noted a weaker growth of the Australian economy, which does not correspond to forecasts of the second half of 2018.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The yen is supported by the risks of the US-EU trade conflict, despite the fact that the conflict with China has not been finally resolved. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions due to the emergence of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and the expectation of a speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. The volume of bank lending in Japan in March increased by 2.4% YoY, which was better than forecasts, suggesting a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.0% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in February showed an increase of 1.8% MoM against expectations of 2.5% MoM. In annual terms, orders accelerated the decline from -2.9% to -5.5% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of -5.2% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed correctional dynamics on April 9, retreating from the five-month highs amid Russia's statements about the further decline in production. In particular, Russia may consider the possibility of increasing production after the next OPEC meeting, as circumstances require further reduction of reserves. Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country does not support an uncontrolled rise in oil prices and that the current prices for commodities are quite acceptable. Quotes were also pressured by the American Petroleum Institute report, published yesterday. For the week of April 5, oil reserves in the United States increased by 4.091 million barrels after rising by 2.963 million over the previous period.
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Old 11-04-2019, 07:07
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EUR/USD

EUR showed growth against USD on Wednesday, reaching a new local maximum since March 26. However, the trading was ambiguous, which was caused by the publication of the ECB decision and the subsequent press conference of Mario Draghi. As expected, the rates were left unchanged and would not change until the end of the year. Draghi’s comments turned out to be full of negativity, which provoked a sharp decline in the euro immediately after the speech. However, the head of the ECB focused only on the growth of external risks, which do not allow recovery in economic growth in the region in the near future. The euro was supported on Wednesday by the successful completion of an emergency EU summit, at which the leaders of the European Union and the United Kingdom managed to agree on a new postponement for Brexit.

GBP/USD

The British currency showed moderate growth on April 10, receiving support from macroeconomic publications from the UK. But the main "bullish" news for the pound was the approval of a new postponement for Brexit at an emergency EU summit. Now the deadline is October 31, and the UK has the right to both ratify the withdrawal agreement and refuse Brexit altogether. Macroeconomic publications showed growth in the UK industrial output in February by 0.6% MoM and 0.1% YoY, which was significantly better than analysts' forecasts of 0.1% MoM and -0.9% YoY. Manufacturing production increased by 0.9% MoM and 0.6% YoY, which also exceeded market expectations of 0.2% MoM and -0.7% YoY. UK GDP growth in February slowed from 0.5% MoM to 0.2% MoM, with the forecast of 0.0% MoM.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US one on Wednesday, updating local highs of February 27. It was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Australia on consumer confidence, as well as the agreement on a new postponement for Brexit. Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed an increase of 1.9% in April against a decrease of 4.8% last month, which was significantly better than the average forecast. In turn, the macroeconomic statistics from the United States was ambiguous. Consumer price index excluding food and energy in March increased by 0.1% MoM and 2.0% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY. The general inflation rate in March, according to the consumer price index, increased from 1.5% to 1.9% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar closed Wednesday's trading with a decline against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of April 1. The "bearish" dynamics is promoted by not very strong macroeconomic publications from the United States, as well as by the general decline in risk investors. However, publications from Japan also were ambiguous. In particular, investors were disappointed with the release of data on the demand for machine-building products. In February, orders rose by 1.8% MoM against the expected growth of 2.5% MoM. YoY, stagnation is still observed: -5.5% against -2.9% last month. Today, the instrument shows a long-awaited correction, partly due to the new postponement for Brexit.

Oil

Oil prices showed an increase on Wednesday, having updated record highs since November 8. Curiously, the growth of quotes was observed amid a sharp increase in oil and petroleum stocks in the United States. According to a report from the Department of Energy, reserves for the week of April 5 rose by 7.029 million barrels after rising by 7.238 million over the previous period. Analysts were counting on a much more modest increase of 2.294 million barrels. The negative effect of such an increase in oil reserves was offset by a significant decrease in gasoline stocks by 7.7 million barrels to 229.1 million, which turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations. Quotes were also supported by the published OPEC report, which, among other things, indicated a sharp decline in production volumes in Venezuela amid power outages and the US sanctions.
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Old 12-04-2019, 07:11
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EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, returning to the levels of the opening of the trading session on April 10, under pressure from technical factors. In addition, the “bullish” impulse associated with the extension of the Brexit terms is noticeably reduced. The course was also negatively affected by poor Chinese consumer inflation data. In March, CPI fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.0% MoM in February. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 0.2% MoM. Statistics from Germany did not have a noticeable effect on the EUR, as it fully met market expectations. Inflation rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY in March, which also coincided with the data of the previous month. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is steadily growing. Traders are focused on EU February statistics on industrial production, as well as a block of March statistics on imports and exports from China.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD is consolidating near the level of 1.3000 under pressure of ambiguous macroeconomic publications and the risks of a political crisis in the UK. Yesterday, the EU and the UK managed to agree on a new long-term delay, which should help London achieve a final agreement in parliament. However, Teresa May quickly loses her supporters. In addition, the EU has given Britain a certain amount of freedom in the matter of the possible abolition of Brexit. May’s political opponents of May, who are in favor of holding a second referendum, may take advantage of it.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD dropped significantly against USD, retreating from its highs since February 27, renewed the day before. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was promoted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as a number of positive data from the United States of America. Investors were optimistic about the American data block on producer price dynamics. Excluding food products and energy, PPI rose by 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in March against expected growth of +0.3% MoM and +1.9% YoY. Additional support for USD was provided by Initial Jobless Claims. As of April 5, the figure dropped from 204K to 196K, contrary to forecasts of growth to 211K.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose significantly against the JPY, balancing the decline since the beginning of the week, with the support of US optimistic macroeconomic statistics on industrial inflation and jobless claims data. Also on the market, there is some growth in investor interest in risk, since at least one negative factor was eliminated. EU granted the UK with a new delay, which allowed the Kingdom to avoid secession from the EU under the “hard” scenario. Today, the investors are focused on Chinese import and export statistics, as well as the American University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April. It is predicted that the indicator can be corrected from 98.4 to 98.0 points, which will have a noticeable pressure on USD.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices fell, retreating from record highs. The dynamic was caused by a technical correction at the end of the week; however, there are enough fundamental reasons for the decline. In particular, investors are concerned about a sharp increase in the volume of crude oil reserves in the United States, which, coupled with a record volume of oil production of 12.2 million barrels per day, creates significant risks for quotations. A more confident downward correction is currently hampered by an active OPEC+ policy and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. Today, investors will wait for Baker Hughes' report on active oil platforms.
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Old 15-04-2019, 06:58
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro rose markedly against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of March 26. The development of "bullish" dynamics was supported by good macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and China, as well as a disappointing consumer confidence index from the USA. Exports from China in March showed a sharp increase of 14.2% YoY after a decline by 20.8% YoY in February. Analysts were expecting the growth of 7.3% YoY. Imports for the same period declined by 7.6% YoY after declining by 5.2% in February. Thanks to that, the trade surplus sharply increased in March and amounted to USD 32.64 billion, while the forecasts suggested an increase from USD 4.08 to 7.05 billion. European data showed a decline in industrial output in February by 0.2% MoM after rising by 1.9% MoM last month. The market expected a more rapid decline of 0.6% MoM.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading against the US dollar in a positive trend, trying to recover from the ambiguous dynamics of the week before last. Despite the postponement, Brexit, of course, remains one of the main topics among investors. Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to fulfill her previous promises to form a coalition with the Labor Party in order to achieve a final agreement on the deal. Moderate support for the pound on Monday is provided by the Rightmove index on the dynamics of housing prices in the UK. In March, the index rose by 1.1% MoM after rising by 0.4% MoM last month. YoY, the indicator still shows negative dynamics, decreasing by 0.1%. On Monday, a speech of Jonathan Haskell, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, is expected, and on Tuesday, the February data on the UK labor market will be released.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar steadily strengthened against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of February 27. The Australian currency was supported by Chinese macroeconomic statistics, as well as the rather voluminous report of the RBA on financial stability. The latter, although showed the lowering of growth prospects for the Australian economy, contained words about stabilized external risks and the improved situation on the labor market. Today the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. Investors are focused on the New York FRB index on business activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the presentation of the Fed representative Charles Evans. Interesting statistics from Australia will appear on April 16, when the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Friday, marking new local highs since March 5. There were no interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan, so investors concentrated on optimistic Chinese publications and were disappointed by data from the United States. According to preliminary estimates, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in April fell from 98.4 to 96.9 points, while the forecast was for a decline only to 98.0 points. At the beginning of the week, traders are focused on the trade negotiations of Japan and the United States, which will be held in Washington.

Oil

Oil prices resumed moderate growth on April 12, receiving support from the continued supply cuts from Venezuela and Iran. The armed conflict in Libya provides additional support for quotes. On Friday, the head of the Libyan National Oil Corporation warned against the further escalation of the conflict, which, in his opinion, could completely destroy the production in the country. More confident growth on Friday was hindered by the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA, reflecting their growth from 831 to 833 units.
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  #779  
Old 17-04-2019, 07:12
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined against USD, continuing the development of a poor “bearish” impulse formed at the beginning of the week, due to technical factors. In addition, investors are disappointed with the growth rate of the European economy, which is unable to reach the forecasted levels, despite the extremely soft monetary policy of the regulator. Moderate support was provided by macroeconomic statistics from the ZEW Institute. April’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 3.6 to 3.1 points, while the growth only to 0.8 points was expected. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period decreased from 11.1 to 5.5 points, which was worse than market expectations of 8.0 points. April’s ZEW EU Economic Sentiment also grew steadily –2.5 to 4.5 points, with a forecast of 1.2 points. Today, investors are focused on March EU data on consumer inflation and the publication of the Fed’s economic review Beige Book.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, receiving no significant support from the UK labor market report. The Unemployment Rate in February remained at 3.9% 3m/Yr, which coincided with market forecasts. Average Earnings without bonus decreased slightly by 0.1% to 3.4% 3m/Yr in February, as expected. March Claimant Count Change increased from 26.7 to 28.3K, while analysts had expected a decline to 20.0K. Today, during the Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, receiving minor support from Chinese publications. Investors are awaiting the release of March statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. It is predicted that the CPI will rise by 0.3% MoM, slowing down against the previous +0.5% MoM, and grow by +2.0% YoY. The market also expects the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who can tell about the plans of monetary policy in the context of new terms for Brexit.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD moved in different directions against USD, ending the day session with almost zero results. In the morning, the price was under pressure by the published RBA protocols, which focused on growing external risks and a slowdown in the growth rate of the Australian economy. With the opening of the American session, the instrument was able to quickly recoup, as USD was under pressure from industrial production statistics. In March, the index fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were counting on acceleration to +0.2% MoM. Capacity Utilization fell from 79.0% to 78.8% in March, which also was worse than market forecasts of 79.1%. Today, during the Asian session, AUD is supported by strong statistics from China. March Retail Sales increased by 8.7% YoY after rising by 8.2% YoY in February. Industrial production for the same period rose by 8.5% YoY after rising by 5.3% YoY in February.

USD/JPY

USD is moving horizontally against JPY, remaining around ​​local highs since March 5. The positions of USD are under pressure, as there is a lack of strong US macroeconomic statistics on the market, and investors are awaiting the resolution of the US-China trade negotiations. In addition, the market fears harsh statements by Donald Trump, who accuses the regulator of slowing economic growth and extremely weak inflation. The President urges the Fed to resume quantitative easing. Meanwhile, traders are following US and Japanese trade negotiations. While the parties are very optimistic but no specific decisions have yet been made. Japanese exports fell by 2.4% YoY in March, which was twice as bad as the decline in February. Imports, in contrast, rose by 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 6.6% YoY in February. Due to a sharp decline in exports, the overall March trade balance increased from 334.9 to 528.5 billion JPY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed moderate growth, responding to new exacerbations in Libya and a decline in exports of petroleum products from Venezuela and Iran. The quotes, in turn, are under pressure from uncertain prospects of the OPEC+ transaction. In particular, Russia may decide to increase the rate of oil production in order to compete with the ever-increasing supplies from the United States. The further fate of the current transaction will be decided in June when the cartel gathers for the next summit. Published on the eve of the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves reflected the decline in stocks for the week of April 12 to 3.096 million barrels after rising by 4.091 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report on production and reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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  #780  
Old 18-04-2019, 07:41
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EUR/USD

The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of April 12. However, by the close of the day session, the instrument lost most of the positions it had won. Investors were focused on European consumer inflation statistics, which managed to provide tangible support for the euro. In March, the consumer price index rose by 1.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY after rising by 0.3% MoM and 1.4% YoY in February. The core CPI in March rose by 0.8% YoY, which coincided with market expectations. Investors were also optimistic about the statistics for the Eurozone trade balance. The surplus in February rose from 17.4 to 19.5 billion euros, while analysts expected a decline to 14.7 billion. Today the instrument is relatively stable and expects new drivers to appear. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of European data on business activity in April.

GBP/USD

The pound slightly declined against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of April 8. The British currency was pressured by an uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In March, the consumer price index slowed down from 0.5% MoM to 0.2% MoM, which turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of 0.3% MoM. YoY, inflation remained at 1.9%, while the market expected an acceleration of up to 2.0%. The retail price index was also disappointing. In March, it showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.7% MoM last month. The forecast for the indicator was 0.2% MoM. YoY, the retail price index slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.4% in March, with a forecast of 2.6% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, having managed to update local highs of February 21. The "Australian" was supported by strong macroeconomic data from China. In March, retail sales increased by 8.7% YoY after rising by 8.2% YoY in February. Industrial production rose by 8.5% YoY against February growth of 5.3% YoY. GDP growth in Q1 2019 remained at 6.4% YoY, with the forecasts of a slowdown to 6.3% YoY. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are focused on the report on the Australian labor market in March. The unemployment rate in March rose from 4.9% to 5.0%, while the employment rate jumped sharply by 25.7K jobs, while the forecast suggested an increase of only 12K. The total employment rate in March was 48.3K after a decrease of 7.3K last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is relatively stable against the Japanese yen and has been trading near local highs since March 5. A certain pressure on the US currency on Wednesday was provided by a published economic review of the Fed, the Beige Book. The regulator again noted weak economic growth, however, some US districts reporting of accelerated growth. The labor market remains fairly stable, but there is still an acute shortage of highly skilled workers in industrial production and construction. Today, the yen shows moderate growth, receiving support from publications from Japan. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.2 to 49.5 points in April which was above average forecasts. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of data on the US retail sales for March and a block of preliminary statistics on business activity in April.

Oil

Oil prices showed an increase on April 17, but failed to consolidate on new highs and declined by the end of the day session. The quotes were supported by strong data on industrial production from China and by an unexpected decline in US oil reserves. According to a published EIA report, during the week of April 12, oil and petroleum products in the US warehouses decreased by 1.396 million barrels, while investors expected growth of 1.711 million. A slight decrease in production in the USA from 12.200 to 12.100 million barrels per day was also a positive signal.
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  #781  
Old 19-04-2019, 07:29
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined significantly against USD, renewing the local lows since April 8. The negative dynamics is due to disappointing statistics on EU business activity. April Markit Service PMI decreased from 53.3 to 52.5 points, against the expected decrease only to 53.2 points. April Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.3 points against the forecast of 51.8 points. German data were better than expected. Markit Service PMI rose from 55.4 to 55.6 points, while the market expected a decline to 55.1 points. The only exception was Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 44.1 to 44.5 points while the forecast was 45.0 points. In addition to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, EUR was under pressure from the prospects of a new trade war between the US and the EU. Yesterday, Brussels announced the possibility of introducing response import duties on American goods worth more than $20 billion.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, renewing local lows since March 29. Mostly, the decline in GBP was of a technical nature, since the UK was able to support investor sentiment in the market after the publication of strong Retail Sales statistics. In March, it increased by 1.1% MoM and 6.7% YoY, which was significantly better than the February data: + 0.6% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Analysts expected a decline by 0.3% MoM and growth by 4.6% YoY. The indicator excluding fuel sales in March increased by 1.2% MoM and 6.2% YoY, while the forecast was –0.3% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Today, during the Asian session, GBP is trading in different directions, waiting for new drivers in the market. Trading on the last day of the week is likely to be fairly calm, as European markets are closed on the occasion of Good Friday.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD fell against USD within the correction, departing from local highs since April 17. Despite the publication of a moderately optimistic report on the Australian labor market, investors found no reason to buy AUD with the opening of European and American trading sessions. USD was supported by strong data on Retail Sales. In March, it increased by 1.6% MoM after falling by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a gain of +0.9% MoM. Sales excluding cars for the same period rose by 1.2% MoM with a forecast of +0.7% MoM. The cumulative retail sales from the US Census Bureau increased in March by 1.0% MoM, after falling 0.3% MoM last month. The market expected a much more modest growth of +0.4% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD maintains the same momentum against JPY, remaining close to the local highs since December 20, 2018 and the level of 112.00. Yesterday’s US PMI data did not support USD significantly, however, it grew against the most currencies. Markit Manufacturing PMI in April did not change against the March one, remaining at the level of 52.4 points, with the forecast of growth to 52.8 points. Service PMI significantly declined from 55.3 to 52.9 points against the forecast of 55.0 points. April Composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 52.8 points.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose, supported by the same factors on the market. The report by the US Department of Energy reflected a steady decline in US oil reserves by 1.4 million barrels, and also recorded a slight decrease in the volume of “black gold” production in the country. The decline in supply by OPEC+ is also observed, although the market fears uncertain prospects around the extension of the deal in the current year. The price is positively affected by the news from Libya, where the internal military conflict is going, which threatens to completely stop oil production in the country. On Thursday, one day earlier than usual, Baker Hughes published a report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs fell from 833 to 825 units.
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  #782  
Old 22-04-2019, 07:35
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on April 19, slightly correcting after a significant decline on Thursday. The strengthening of the single currency at the end of the week is fully determined by the technical correction since the markets in Europe were closed on the occasion of the Easter holidays. The development of upward dynamics was also caused by weak macroeconomic indicators from the United States. The number of new residential houses in the United States showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM in March after a decrease of 12.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected the growth by 6.5% MoM. The number of issued construction permits for the same period showed a decline of 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting the growth by 0.3% MoM. Today, the instrument is again trading in a downtrend, but market activity remains low.

GBP/USD

The pound shows ambiguous dynamics, remaining near local minima of March 29. Investors expect new drivers to appear on the market, as the activity of recent days remained low due to the celebration of Catholic Easter. The market still fears the development of a political crisis in the UK. After receiving a postponement from the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May had enough time to win opposition parties to her side, but not everyone in the UK Parliament is satisfied with the current situation. As it became known last weekend, the head of the Conservative Party, Graham Brady intends to seek the voluntary resignation of May. Otherwise, some parliamentarians may introduce a vote of no confidence in the prime minister.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is weakening against the US dollar, retreating from local highs of February 21, updated in the middle of last week. The Australian labor market report published last week did not provide any significant support for the instrument, despite the fact that a number of indicators turned out to be above analysts' forecasts. In particular, despite the expected increase in the unemployment rate in March from 4.9% to 5.0%, total employment showed an increase from 4.6K to 25.7K, which turned out to be much better than forecast (12.0K). Today, the instrument again shows a moderate decline, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Due to the Easter holidays, activity in the market will begin to recover only on Tuesday, and interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia will be published on Wednesday when data on consumer inflation for Q1 2019 will be released.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is weakening moderately against the Japanese yen, remaining near local maxima of December 20. The development of negative dynamics is supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In turn, the yen is stable on good data from Japan but does not receive adequate support due to moderate growth in demand for risk. Last Friday's consumer inflation data provided moderate support for the Japanese currency. The Tokyo consumer price index excluding the price of fresh food accelerated in March from 0.7% YoY to 0.8% YoY, with a stable forecast. A similar index excluding food and energy in March remained at 0.4% YoY.

Oil

Oil quotes showed strong growth on April 22. At the opening of trading, Brent crude oil jumped to USD 74 per barrel, above which the instrument was last traded in November. The reason for such an active beginning of the week were the reports that the United States will begin to impose sanctions on all countries that are still buying oil from Iran. These countries include the largest consumers, India and China. Earlier, they got a postponement, which ends on May 2. It is not yet clear exactly how the US will impose new sanctions, given the protracted trade negotiations with China, but prices may receive a powerful impetus to further growth.
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  #783  
Old 23-04-2019, 07:06
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EUR/USD

The euro showed a slight growth against the US dollar on April 22, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Market activity remains low due to the Easter holidays, but investors are gradually returning. They are focused on the US-EU trade conflict, which faces new risks for both economies. In addition, investors are awaiting the signing of the US-China final trade agreement, which will somewhat balance the risks in the market. On Tuesday, the market is not expecting a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics. Investors will be focused on the level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in April, as well as the dynamics of housing prices and sales of new homes in the USA in March.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight decline on Monday, updating the local minima of March 11. In the absence of new drivers in the market, investors are discussing the prospects for the development of a political crisis in the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May does not leave attempts to attract parliamentarians to her side, in order to achieve approval of the current version of the agreement with the EU. It is possible that opponents of May will try to achieve a new referendum in agreement with the European Union or a repeated referendum on the country's withdrawal.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is declining against the US dollar at the beginning of the week, updating local lows of April 12. Investor activity remains quite low, so the instrument is influenced by technical factors. Published on Monday, data from the United States was mostly negative, which, however, did not prevent the pair from continuing the downward movement. Sales in the secondary housing market in the USA declined in March by 4.9% MoM after rising by 11.2% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.3% MoM. In absolute terms, sales fell from 5.48 to 5.21 million, with a forecast of 5.30 million. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the United States. Interesting data from Australia will appear on Wednesday when the RBA will publish statistics on consumer inflation for Q1 2019.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to show ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen, slightly tending down. Published at the beginning of the week, weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA does not strengthen the dollar, while the yen gets support in the thin market as "safe haven". Today, investors expect releases on retail sales and sales of new homes from the USA. Japan will publish statistics only on Wednesday, when the activity index in all sectors will be released, as well as data on leading and coincident indicators for February. On Thursday, a meeting of the Bank of Japan at an interest rate with an accompanying press conference will be held.

Oil

Oil prices rose markedly on April 22, supported by the US intention to impose sanctions on countries that import oil from Iran. Now for a number of countries, there is an exception that allows them to buy Iranian oil, but starting from May 2, this possibility will disappear, which threatens with an acute shortage in the market or new trade conflicts. Among countries that import Iranian oil, there is also China, which still cannot agree on all the details on a trade dispute with the United States. Today, investors will focus on the API report on oil reserves. The last report reflected a sharp reduction of 3.096 million barrels.
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Old 24-04-2019, 07:16
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EUR/USD

The euro showed a noticeable decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of April 2. The reason for the strengthening of the "bearish" dynamics was the US decision to cancel the preferential conditions for a number of countries when buying Iranian oil. In addition, investors fear the development of a large-scale US-EU trade conflict. Today, the euro has managed to significantly strengthen, despite the fact that there was little interesting macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, the dollar received moderate support from data on the dynamics of sales of new houses. In March, the figure rose by 4.5% MoM from 0.662 to 0.692 million, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, expecting -2.5% MoM. Preliminary statistics on the level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone turned out to be worse than expected. In April, the indicator dropped from -7.2 to -7.9 points, with an expected recovery to 7.0 points.

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar updating local lows of February 19. Market activity is gradually recovering after the Easter holidays, but investors tend to avoid risk in the face of growing uncertainty. There's still not much of macroeconomic statistics, so investors are focused on the same drivers, which for the pound is, of course, Brexit. Currently, British Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to find a compromise with Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbin, who could help May get approval for an agreement in parliament. However, there is a scenario for a new referendum on the current version of the agreement with the EU, which threatens to substantially change its conditions, which will have to be reconciled.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar weakens sharply against the US one, updating local lows of March 11. The decline in the instrument today is due to the publication of disappointing statistics on consumer inflation in Australia for Q1 2019. The index showed zero dynamics in quarterly terms and grew by 1.3% YoY, which was noticeably worse than market expectations of 0.2% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. In Q4 2018, the indicator showed a growth of 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. The RBA core CPI for the same period increased by 0.3% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, while the forecast was 0.4% QoQ and 1.7% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to develop flat dynamics with the Japanese yen, remaining close to the level of 112.00. The yen is supported by generally low demand for risk in the market. The dollar, in turn, is playing on ambiguous statistics from the construction market in March, which was marked by a sharp decline in sales of secondary housing, but signaled an increase in sales of new buildings. Investors expect new drivers to appear; one of which may be the Bank of Japan meeting on April 25.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on April 23, which was the expected market response to a sharp increase in quotes at the beginning of the week. Currently, the instrument is supported by US statements on the abolition of favorable conditions for a number of countries importing Iranian oil. Among such countries, there is China, which has already criticized the United States for such a decision. On Tuesday, the instrument was pressured by a published report of the American Petroleum Institute (API), which indicated a sharp increase in stocks by 6.900 million barrels. On Wednesday, investors are awaiting the publication of the report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.
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Old 25-04-2019, 07:29
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EUR/USD

The euro finished trading on April 24 with a steady decline against the US dollar, having updated record lows since June 2017. The European currency was pressured by a weak macroeconomic publications from Germany, as well as the general strengthening of the dollar. According to the data from the IFO, the Indicator of Business Optimism in Germany in April fell from 99.6 to 99.2 points, while the forecast was 99.9 points. The Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the same period fell from 95.6 to 95.2 points, while analysts expected growth to 96.1 points. The Current Assessment Index rolled back from 103.8 to 103.3 points while the forecast was 103.6 points. Negative is added to the market from the development of the US-EU trade conflict after Trump announced the introduction of import duties, and the EU responded with symmetrical measures. However, the focus of attention is on the US-China trade conflict; in the near future, the parties should hold two new rounds of negotiations, which may end with the signing of a final agreement.

GBP/USD

The pound declined against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of February 15. The development of "bearish" dynamics was supported by macroeconomic publications from the UK. The volume of public sector net borrowings in March increased by 0.840 billion pounds, whereas previously they decreased by 0.514 billion. Analysts were expecting a decrease of -0.400 billion pounds. Yesterday, the media got information that the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to once again seek a review of the agreement with the EU. The European Commission did not take long to respond: Jean-Claude Juncker stated that the EU would not review the deal. In his opinion, the current version of the agreement is the "best" option for both parties.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Wednesday, updating local lows of March 8 and again approaching a strong support level of 0.7000. The Australian currency position was strongly pressured by consumer inflation data for Q1 2019, published the day before, which was worse than analysts' expectations. Today, the instrument is expectedly traded in a flat. In Australia, markets are closed on the occasion of the celebration of the national holiday, so all investors will be focused on statistics from the United States. With the opening of the American session, data on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in March is expected to be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar appreciably strengthened against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, interrupting the flat series since April 15. The growth of the instrument on April 24 was caused by the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. The activity index in all industries in February showed a decline of 0.2% MoM after the zero dynamics last month. The indicator was slightly worse than market expectations of -0.1% MoM. At the same time, the index of coinciding indicators in February rose from 99.6 to 100.4 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts (98.8 points). The index of leading indicators strengthened from 96.3 to 97.1 points while the forecast was 97.4 points. Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, emphasizing the persistence of significant risks for the Japanese economy. The BoJ also slightly revised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020. In 2019, the Bank expects the economy to grow by 0.9% YoY, and in 2020 - by 1.0% YoY. Earlier, forecasts suggested a rise of 0.8% YoY and 0.9% YoY, respectively.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on April 24, continuing to trade at record highs. The data of a report from the US Department of Energy, which reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves for the week of April 19 by 5.5 million barrels to 460.6 million barrels, prevented a more confident strengthening yesterday. Analysts had expected the emergence of positive dynamics but hoped for growth of only 1.255 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.
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Old 26-04-2019, 07:07
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EUR/USD

The European currency finished trading on Thursday with a confident decline against the US dollar, updating its record lows of May 30, 2017. The euro is still pressured by an unstable economic situation in the region. Published yesterday, the ECB bulletin pointed to a further slowdown in the economy, exacerbated by the risks of new trade wars and a general decline in world trade. Inflation in the region is also slowing down, which postpones the possible tightening of monetary policy for an indefinite period. Moreover, the regulator is now quite ready for new quantitative easing, as was mentioned on Thursday by Vice-President of the Bank, Luis de Guindos. Today, the euro is trading in an uptrend, developing a correction. On Friday, investors are focused on the annual statistics on US GDP for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the British pound showed a decline against the US dollar updating local lows of February 15. However, by the end of the daily session, the pound managed to recover, despite the publication of optimistic macroeconomic statistics on durable goods orders in the United States. Confident support for the instrument was provided by the CBI Retail Report, which indicated a sharp increase in sales volumes in April by 13% MoM after a decline of 18% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting zero dynamics. On Friday, investors expect the publication of BBA statistics on the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK from, as well as a CBI report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in April.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a flat dynamics on April 25, despite the fact that during the day the instrument updated local minima of January 3. On Thursday, the stock exchanges in Australia were closed due to a national holiday, so the focus was on statistics from the USA on the dynamics of orders for durable goods, which provided moderate support to USD. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. The "Australian" is slightly supported by data on the export price index. In Q1 2019, the index rose by 4.5% QoQ after rising by 4.4% QoQ, while analysts had forecast a sharp decline of 0.8% QoQ. The producer price index over the same period slowed down from 0.5% QoQ to 0.4% QoQ, which turned out to be worse than investors' expectations of 0.6% QoQ.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Thursday, leveling out all the growth attempts that had been demonstrated the day before. The yen managed to strengthen against the background of the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on an interest rate. As expected, the regulator kept rates at -0.1% and signaled the preservation of a soft policy at least until the spring of 2020. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. The yen is pressured by weak data on unemployment and the dynamics of industrial output in March. In March, the unemployment rate rose from 2.3% to 2.5%, which turned out to be below market expectations of 2.4%. According to preliminary estimates, industrial output decreased by 0.9% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which was dramatically worse than the average forecast of -0.1% MoM and -0.6% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices updated local highs on April 25 but returned to the opening marks by the end of the daily session. The quotes were moderately supported by interruptions in the supply of Russian oil to Europe due to quality problems. At the same time, investors expect tougher US sanctions on Iranian oil. In particular, since May 1, a number of countries will no longer apply preferential terms that allowed them to import oil from Iran. However, Saudi Arabia has already stated that it is able to compensate for the decline in supply. On Friday, a Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the US is expected.
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  #787  
Old 29-04-2019, 07:26
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency has updated local lows against the US dollar last Friday, but managed to finish the afternoon session with growth. The instrument was under pressure from strong macroeconomic statistics on the US GDP for Q1 2019. According to preliminary estimates, the US economy showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the growth of 2.2% YoY over the past period. Analysts' forecasts were very modest and assumed growth of only 2.0% YoY. On the other hand, the GDP price index for the same period showed an increase of only 0.6% YoY, with a forecast of 1.3% YoY, which indicates that the country's low inflation rates remain. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, developing corrective dynamics. Investors are focused on statistics on business sentiment in the euro area. After American session starts, Personal Income and Personal Spending data for February and March will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Friday and maintains a weak upward trend during today's Asian session. The growth of the instrument is largely technical in nature, since the factors putting pressure on the British currency are still strong. Theresa May is negotiating with the Labor Party, but so far there has been no noticeable progress. The dialogue will continue this week, but the British Prime Minister has to hurry, as the level of political pressure is growing steadily. Today, investors do not expect the publication of significant data from the UK, so they will focus on statistics from the US and the euro area instead.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows rather active correctional growth, offsetting a strong decline of the pair at the beginning of the last trading week. Last Friday, the growth of the instrument was ambiguous, which was caused by the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The Export Price Index in Q1 2019 rose by 4.5% QoQ after rising by 4.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index slowed down from 2.0% YoY to 1.9% YoY over the same period. On a quarterly basis, the indicator rose by 0.4% QoQ, while the forecast was 0.6% QoQ. During today's Asian session, the Australian dollar is also traded with an upward trend, despite the fact that there are no new growth drivers at the market. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on Personal Spending and Income in the US for March.

USD/JPY

The Japanese currency returned to the flat dynamics against the US dollar, noticeably departing from the local highs, updated on April 24. Pressure on the yen was caused by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan last Friday. The Unemployment Rate in March unexpectedly rose from 2.3% to 2.5%, while analysts expected growth to only 2.4%. The data on industrial production were also disappointing. According to preliminary data, in March, production volumes decreased by 0.9% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations (–0.1% MoM and –0.6% YoY). Tokyo Core CPI supported the yen moderately. The index grew by 1.3% YoY in April, although investors did not expect any changes in the previous value of +1.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell sharply on April 26, retreating from record highs updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument proceeded against the background of interruptions in the oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which caused an increase in concerns about the shortage of raw materials in the market earlier. Analytical comments helped the instrument, convincing investors that refining companies have enough oil reserves to avoid any distortions. In addition, Russia is set to restore supplies of "black gold" today. Last Friday, the report by Baker Hughes, which reflected a sharp reduction in the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US from 825 to 805, also supported the quotes.
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  #788  
Old 30-04-2019, 07:56
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR rose against USD on Monday, continuing to develop the correctional momentum that was formed at the end of the last trading week. The growth of the euro proceeded against the background of the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Business and Consumer Survey in April showed the decrease from 105.6 to 104.0 points, with the forecast of a decline only to 105.0 points. Business Climate indicator decreased from 0.54 to 0.42 points for the same period, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 0.49 points. Industrial Sentiment indicator decreased from –1.6 to –4.1 points, with the forecast of –2.0 points. Only Services Sentiment exceeded the expectations. In April, the indicator remained at the same level of 11.5 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 11.1 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading in different directions, feeling the pressure of weak macroeconomic statistics from China and awaiting the publication of preliminary data on euro area's GDP for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

The British pound has been trading with a moderate increase, gradually recovering from a downward rally since April 16. The growth of the pair relies mainly on technical factors, while the fundamental reasons for its further weakening remain. Theresa May cannot yet reach a compromise in negotiations with the Labor Party, but the market does not lose optimism. Meanwhile, the media got the information that the majority of Scotland residents can stand for independence if Great Britain has to leave the EU without an agreement. However, "hard" Brexit is still perceived as an extreme measure, and the British Parliament recently approved a bill completely prohibiting the state from leaving the EU without a deal. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a moderate growth. The pound reacted negatively to the publication of Gfk Consumer Confidence index and the release of Chinese statistics, but remains fairly stable.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar finished trading on Monday with moderate growth, which, however, did not lead to an update of the local highs of last Friday. The controversial macroeconomic statistics from the United States contributed to the growth of the instrument, as well as the general correctional sentiment with which investors approached the new week in the market. Today, the pair is trading in different directions, reacting to the publication of weak data from China. Non-Manufacturing PMI in China fell from 54.8 to 54.3 points in April, with the forecast of 54.5 points. Manufacturing PMI of NBS in April decreased from 50.5 to 50.1 points, with the forecast of increase to 50.7 points. Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell in April from 50.8 to 50.2 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 51.0 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Monday, but returned to a decline during the Asian session on April 30. Yesterday's statistics from the US failed to provide significant support to the USD. Personal Income of US citizens indicator in March increased by only 0.1% MoM, slowing down from the previous 0.2% MoM, while analysts expected growth of 0.4% MoM. Personal Spending for the same period accelerated from 0.1% MoM to 0.9% MoM with the forecast of 0.7% MoM. The increase in spending may have a positive effect on inflationary dynamics; however, investors are not inclined to consider a one-time increase in the indicator as a trend.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, having regained part of the lost positions after a sharp decline last Friday. More confident correction is hampered by the pressure that US President Donald Trump puts on OPEC. On Friday, he said that he personally turned to OPEC with a demand to reduce prices and increase oil supplies to the market. It is not yet clear how the cartel will respond to the repeated demands of the US President, but there are still plans to increase the total production. A number of analysts believe that Saudi Arabia may increase the production of "black gold" in May to compensate for the deficit from Iranian oil. At the same time, the OPEC+ agreement is still in force and allows maintaining an approximate balance of supply and demand in the market.
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  #789  
Old 06-05-2019, 07:25
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LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session on May 6, the European currency is trading with a rise against the US dollar, trying to develop a "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Euro growth on Friday was facilitated by strong statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. CPI rose in April by 1.7% YoY against a growth of 1.4% YoY last month. Analysts had expected growth by 1.6% YoY only. Core CPI for the same period strengthened by 1.2% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY. The indicator was better than expected +1.0% YoY. Minor support for the European currency today is provided by statistics from China. Caixin Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose from 54.4 to 54.5 points in April, while experts expected it to decline to 54.3 points. On Monday, the market is waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity and retail sales in the euro area. Interesting statistics from the US are expected to be few, so investors will follow the development of trade negotiations with China, a new round of which is scheduled for May 8 in Washington.

GBP/USD

GBP grew sharply against USD on Friday updating local highs of April 4. The growth of the British currency was facilitated by the correctional sentiment towards USD against the backdrop of publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. April report on the labor market, published on May 3, pointed to an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.6%. Nonfarm Payrolls were better than expectations as well. Outside of agriculture, the US economy created 263K new jobs after growth of the figure to 189K in March. The forecast assumed growth by only 185K. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings in April showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the forecast of +3.3% YoY. Participation Rate declined from 63.0% to 62.8%, with the forecast of 62.9%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in April declined from 56.1 to 55.5 points with the forecast of 57.2 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is growing moderately during the Asian session on May 6 after the opening with a negative gap. Last Friday, the pair managed to show quite active growth, despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics from Australia remained disappointing. The published data reflected a sharp decline in the number of building approvals issued in March by 15.5% MoM. In annual terms, the index was –27.3% YoY. Today, the Australian dollar receives moderate support from the Chinese statistics on business activity, but again is under pressure from weak data from Australia. TD Securities inflation rate in April increased by 0.2% MoM, slowing down from the previous +0.4% MoM. ANZ Job Advertisements in April fell by 0.1% MoM after declining by 1.7% MoM in March. Investors are focused on tomorrow's RBA meeting on the interest rate, as well as a block of statistics on imports/exports and retail sales in March.

USD/JPY

The US dollar opened with a confident downward gap against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 28. Instrument activity remains low due to public holidays in Japan; therefore, the main focus of attention is on data from the United States. A report published on Friday on the US labor market failed to provide significant support to the dollar, despite a number of strong publications that turned out to be better than expected. The alarming news around the US-China trade negotiations, which are currently at the final stage, is contributing to the growth in demand for a "safe" yen. The next round of talks should be held on May 8 in Washington, but investors fear that China may refuse to participate in them because of the harsh remarks of Donald Trump, who promised to increase import duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10 to 25% from May 10.

Oil

Oil prices weaken at the beginning of the new week. Brent crude oil opened with a confident downward gap, updating the local lows of April 4. The negative reaction of the market is associated with growing fears about the progress of the US-China negotiations, which are again under threat after the harsh statements of Donald Trump. Additional pressure on Friday came from the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs increased from 805 to 807 units, which is especially alarming, given the continued growth in oil production in the United States. Last week, the figure reached a record 12.3 million barrels per day.
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Old 07-05-2019, 07:39
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-07 08:51 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR showed a moderate increase against USD on Monday, having developed a correctional impetus formed at the end of the previous trading week. Moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe supported the instrument. Markit Services PMI in April rose from 52.5 to 52.8 points, although analysts did not expect any changes in the value of the indicator. Manufacturing PMI increased from 47.9 to 52.8 points. Retail sales also turned out better than expected. In March, sales showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and strengthened by 1.9% in annual terms (with a forecast of –0.1% MoM and +1.8% YoY). On Tuesday, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on factory orders in Germany for March. In addition, on May 8, the market will closely monitor the US-PRC trade negotiations, which are in jeopardy following the harsh statements by Donald Trump.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US dollar on Monday, having corrected after active growth last Friday. On Monday, the UK markets were closed due to bank holidays, so investors focused on the failure of Theresa May's negotiations with the Labor Party, as well as on the aggravation of the situation in US-China trade relations. Last weekend, Donald Trump threatened to introduce additional import duties on Chinese goods, hoping in this way to speed up the process of concluding a final agreement. Experts believe that being under pressure, China may completely cancel the next stage of negotiations, which threatens a new round of deterioration in the global economy. On Tuesday, two representatives of the Bank of England, Jon Cunliffe and Andy Haldane, are expected to speak in the UK.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows strong growth against the US currency during the Asian session on May 7, updating local highs of the beginning of the month. Macroeconomic statistics published in Australia provides moderate support for the instrument. The volume of retail sales in March increased by 0.3% MoM, which is 0.1% MoM higher than expectations. At the same time, the indicator showed a slowdown, since in February sales growth was +0.9% MoM. Exports and imports in March decreased by the same amount, –2.0% MoM, which led to a higher trade balance surplus than expected. In March, the trade balance surplus was 4.949B Australian dollars, with a forecast of 4.490B. The follow-up RBA statement also supported the Australian dollar. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, noting the strong position of the labor market. While maintaining external risks, the RBA expects further economic growth in 2019 and 2020 by 2.75-3.00%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues trading ambiguously against the Japanese yen. After opening with the gap down on Monday, the US currency slightly corrected, but again tends to decline during the Asian session on May 7. The yen is supported by Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI. In April, the figure rose from 49.5 to 50.2 points, returning to the February values. Investors today will focus on a block of macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as a speech by Fed representative, Randal Quarles. On Wednesday, the market is waiting for the publication of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee minutes.

Oil

Oil prices rose on Monday, despite the fact that during the day, they traded mainly with a decrease. The quotes were pressured by the disruption of the US-China trade negotiations after the harsh statements by Donald Trump. The market also reacts negatively to new signs of further increase in US oil production. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report from API on oil reserves for the week as of April 26.
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  #791  
Old 08-05-2019, 07:02
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-08 08:52 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency on Tuesday traded in both directions, closing with a slight decrease. Factory orders data published in Germany put pressure on the euro. In March, the index rose by 0.6% MoM against a decrease of 4.0% MoM last month, but analysts expected a more confident increase of 1.6% MoM. In annual terms, orders showed a negative trend at the level of –6.0% YoY against the expected –6.2% YoY. In February, the decline was –8.1% YoY. An economic report of the European Commission put additional pressure on the instrument. According to published data, GDP growth in the euro area in 2019 is expected to be 1.2% against the previous value of 1.3%. For 2020, the growth rate of the regional economy was also revised downward from 1.6% to 1.5%. In turn, the European Commission has noticeably improved its forecasts for the labor market, which can also have a positive effect on inflation expectations.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed an uncertain decline against the US dollar on Tuesday. The pound continues to correct paired with the US currency after an aggressive growth on May 3. The pressure on the British currency is exerted by the threat of disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the lack of visible progress in attempts to reach an agreement within the British parliament. The Minister for the Cabinet Office, David Lidington, confirmed that the UK will take part in the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held on May 23. According to the official, the Parliament of Great Britain simply will not have time to agree on a deal. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading in both directions, and trading activity remains extremely low. Moderate support for the pound is provided by BRC data on retail sales in the UK. The indicator grew by 3.7% YoY in April after the decline by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 2.4% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar increases moderately against the US currency, developing corrective growth since the beginning of the week. The Australian dollar received some support from data on retail sales in Australia. The indicator grew by 0.3% MoM with the forecast for growth of 0.2% MoM In March. The market reaction to the decision of the RBA and the publication of the follow-up minutes was quite restrained. The regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, while noting the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy. However, the RBA noted some improvements in the labor market. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading with a raise. More confident growth of the instrument is hampered by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China. Chinese exports unexpectedly went down by 2.7% YoY in April after growth by 14.2% YoY in the previous month. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 4.0% YoY, with a forecast of –3.6% YoY and a decrease of 7.6% YoY last month. The strong divergence of imports and exports led to a noticeable decrease in the trade surplus, which collapsed in April from USD 32.67 billion to USD 13.84 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen in trading on Tuesday. "Bearish" activity can also be traced during today's Asian session, against the background of which the instrument updates local lows of March 26. The yen is supported by a sharply increased threat of disrupting the US-China trade negotiations after Donald Trump's statements. However, there is information that the Chinese delegation made a decision to arrive at the talks in Washington, which gives hope for a favorable outcome of the process. Today, the instrument maintains a downward direction. The yen responds to the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan and China, but interest in the risk remains low, which gives the Japanese currency considerable support.

Oil

Oil prices again showed an aggressive decline on Tuesday, offsetting the results of the growth of quotations at the beginning of the week. The instrument is still under pressure from the potential disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, which could worsen the situation with the balance of supply and demand of oil in the market. More confident reduction of quotes is hampered by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. A report published by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday pointed to an increase in oil reserves for the week as of May 3 by 2.806 million barrels after rising by 6.810 million barrels over the previous reporting week. Today, investors are waiting for the statistics on crude oil stocks from the US EIA.
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  #792  
Old 13-05-2019, 07:45
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-13 09:00 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency ended last week trading with moderate growth against the US dollar, updating local highs of 1 May. The euro was supported by data from Germany. Exports from the country in March increased by 1.5% MoM after falling by 1.2% MoM in February, with a forecast of a decline of 0.3% MoM. Imports for the same period increased by 0.4% MoM after declining by 1.6% MoM last month. Experts predicted growth by +0.5% MoM. Due to a sharp increase in exports, Germany’s trade balance in March rose from EUR 18.7 billion to EUR 20.0 billion, which turned out to be better than market expectations. More confident growth of the instrument is currently hampered by complications in the US-China trade negotiations. On Friday, the United States raised import duties on Chinese goods, as Donald Trump promised. China responded by raising duties on US goods for USD 110 billion total. At the same time, the parties intend to continue negotiations, the results of which are able to cancel the restrictions imposed.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar last Friday. In the first half of the day, the instrument was trading upwards, supported by strong UK publications. UK GDP showed growth in Q1 2019 by 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY, which fully coincided with expectations. Over the past period, the UK economy showed growth of +0.2% QoQ and +1.4% YoY. The pound was also supported by industrial production data. In March, they showed an increase of 0.7% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was significantly better than forecasts of +0.1% MoM and +0.5% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading upwards, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Interesting macroeconomic statistics is not expected to be published today, so the activity in the market will remain restrained.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows flat trading paired with the US currency, consolidating near local lows of January 3, updated last Monday. A certain pressure on the position of the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA comments on monetary policy published on Friday. Investors are somewhat disappointed with the extremely soft position of the regulator and fear the possible easing of interest rates if the economic situation in the country continues to deteriorate. In particular, the RBA lowered its GDP forecasts for 2020 from +3.00% YoY to +2.75% YoY. During the Asian session on May 13, the instrument is trading downwards. The development of "bearish" sentiment is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans issued in Australia in March decreased by 2.5% MoM after rising by 2.0% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a growth rate of + 2.3% MoM. The volume of investment loans for home construction in March also decreased by 2.7% MoM after rising by 0.9% MoM in February.

USD/JPY

The US dollar maintains a downward trend paired with the Japanese yen, but the "bearish" activity is gradually weakening. The situation around the US-China trade negotiations is not changing much, despite the fact that the US increased import duties on Chinese goods on Friday. The Bank of Japan, in turn, is still not satisfied with the growth rate of the Japanese economy and inflation. Last week, the head of the regulator, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the Bank could go for an additional easing of monetary policy, if inflation continues to remain weak. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. At the end of March, Household Spending increased by 2.1% YoY after rising 1.7% YoY in February. In turn, the indicator of Average Cash Earnings for the same period dropped sharply by 1.9% YoY after falling by 0.8% YoY in February. Experts expected a decrease of only 0.5% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices show moderate growth, recovering after a decline at the beginning of the month. Tensions around the US-China trade negotiations, which escalated after Washington increased import duties on Chinese goods to 25%, continues to put pressure on the instrument. At the same time, both parties intend to continue trade negotiations. Donald Trump argues for the increase in import duties due to the violations from Beijing, so at the moment it is not entirely clear how the parties will be able to come to a consensus. Baker Hughes report on oil rigs number in the United States published last Friday showed a decrease in the number of drilling rigs from 807 to 805 units, which provided moderate support to prices.
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Old 14-05-2019, 08:38
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-14 08:56 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency finished Monday's trading with a decrease against the US dollar, despite the fact that during the day the euro updated the local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exacerbated by trade relations between the United States and China against the background of ineffective negotiations and the exchange of threats. Last Friday, Donald Trump raised import duties on a number of Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of disrupting negotiations. The Minister of Finance of China also announced introduction of higher tariffs on imports of goods from the United States in the amount of USD 60 billion starting from June 1. The possibility of exacerbation of trade relations between the US and the EU also adds to the negative sentiment at the market. Donald Trump has repeatedly advocated the introduction of import duties on European goods after the case of subsidizing the Boeing Company. On May 18, the United States may announce increased tariffs on the import of European cars, which will force the EU to respond with mirror measures.

GBP/USD

The British pound declined significantly at the beginning of the current trading week, updating local lows of April 30. The aggravation of the trade conflict between the US and the PRC, as well as the possible start of a trade war between the US and the EU, contributes to the development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument. During the Asian session on May 14, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on the UK labor market in March. It is expected that while maintaining the previous unemployment rate of 3.9%, the average earnings may slow down, which will put pressure on the pound.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly paired with the US currency on Monday, updating the local lows of the beginning of the year. The pressure on the Australian currency was put by exacerbated trade relations between the US and China, which threatens with a new round of slowdown in the global economy. Experts fear that the introduction of new import duties by the conflict parties will have a negative impact on the dynamics of Australian exports, which have recently been experiencing certain difficulties. During the Asian session on May 14, the Australian dollar is under moderate pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the NAB Business Survey in April collapsed from 7 to 3 points, which turned out to be worse than expected decline to 4 points. NAB Business Confidence index for the same period showed a moderate increase from –1 to 0 points, which, however, also turned out to be worse than market expectations of an increase to 1 point.

USD/JPY

The US dollar dropped significantly against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local lows of February 1. The market still shows an increased demand for the Japanese currency against the background of the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, which are ready to mutually increase import duties. In turn, Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Monday failed to provide any support to the yen. The Leading Index in March fell from 97.1 to 96.3 points, with the forecast of 96.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on Monday, supported by reports of a sabotage attack on ships near Fujairah. According to preliminary information, 4 vessels including two Saudi tankers were damaged, which could cause disruptions in oil supplies. Anyway, by the end of yesterday's trading session, the prices for the instrument had been noticeably corrected, and the focus of investor attention shifted to the development of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report from API on oil reserves for the week as of May 10.
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Old 15-05-2019, 07:27
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-15 09:13 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a correctional impetus formed the day before. The euro is still under pressure from the prospect of an open trade conflict between the US and the EU after the introduction of US import duties on European cars planned for May 18. In addition, investors monitor the development of the US-China trade negotiations. Yesterday, the euro was supported by data from Germany. CPI in April increased by 1% MoM and 2% YoY, which coincided with the last month data and the forecast. Wholesale Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.3% MoM to +0.6% MoM with the forecast of growth to +0.4% MoM. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from +1.8% to +2.1%. In turn, published statistics on industrial production in the euro area failed to support the euro. Industrial production in March decreased by 0.3% MoM and 0.6% YoY after a decrease of 0.2% MoM and 0.3% YoY in February. Today, European investors focus on GDP statistics from Germany and the euro area for Q1 2019.

GBP/USD

GBP weakens against USD, updating local lows of April 26. The development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument is facilitated by the uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK, as well as the risks associated with the US-China trade negotiations, and the difficulty in forming a coalition within the British parliament. Statistics released in the UK on Tuesday showed a slowdown in Average Earnings + Bonus in March from +3.5% 3MoY to +3.2% 3MoY, while the forecast was +3.4% 3MoY. Claimant Count Change in April rose from 22.6K to 24.7K, with a forecast of 24.2K. At the same time, the overall unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remains under pressure and is developing a downward trend against the US currency, updating local lows of the beginning of the year. The weakening of the instrument is facilitated by the tense situation around the US-China trade negotiations, which has noticeably deteriorated after the parties entered import duties against each other. The export-oriented Australian economy is very sensitive to changes in the dynamics of China's imports, so the risks for the Australian dollar also increased. During the Asian session on May 15, the pair is under pressure from the published macroeconomic statistics of Australia and China. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in May slowed from +1.9% MoM to +0.6% MoM. Wage Price Index in Q1 2019 remained at the previous level of +0.5% QoQ, contrary to forecasts of growth to +0.6% QoQ. China reported a sharp slowdown in industrial production in April from +8.5 YoY to +5.4% YoY, while the forecast was +6.5% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed moderate growth against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, interrupting the five-day "bearish" rally and departing from local lows of early February. The emergence of an upward trend in the instrument is due to the development of corrective sentiment on the dollar in the market. At the same time, the demand for yen remains quite high, since the former risks associated with the aggravation of trade relations between the United States and China are still in force. Tuesday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook in April fell from 48.6 to 48.4 points, with a forecast of growth to 49.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices continue to grow moderately, despite the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. The day before, Saudi Arabia reported on the armed drone attack on oil production facilities owned by the state oil company Aramco. Previously, oil tankers off the coast of the UAE were also attacked, which heightened concerns about possible supply disruptions. However, Saudi Arabia claims that production and export volumes remain at the same levels. Additional pressure on prices on Tuesday was put by the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of May 10, US Crude Oil Stock increased sharply by 8.600M barrels after an increase of 2.806M barrels in the previous period.
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  #795  
Old 16-05-2019, 07:40
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Morning Market Review

2019-05-16 08:53 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Wednesday. The euro was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from China, as well as ambiguous data from Europe. Industrial production in China in April slowed from +8.5% YoY to +5.4% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of +6.5% YoY. Retail sales for the same period increased by 7.2% YoY after rising by 8.7% YoY last month. Data from the euro area indicated GDP growth in Q1 2019 by 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with expectations. Employment index for the same period remained unchanged. With the opening of the US session, the euro was supported by news that Donald Trump might postpone the decision to raise import duties on European cars.

GBP/USD

GBP declined significantly against USD on Wednesday, updating local lows of February 15. There was no interesting macroeconomic statistics in the UK yesterday, so investors focused on the prospects for the development of a trade conflict between the US and China, as well as on the situation around Brexit. Teresa May has not yet managed to reach a compromise with the Labor Party, so there is no hope for an early approval of the agreement on leaving the EU. However, it became known that the British Prime Minister is preparing to submit the existing version of the agreement to a vote in Parliament around the beginning of June.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is developing a downtrend against the US currency, updating local lows of the beginning of the year. The day before, instrument was pressured by the weak macroeconomic statistics from China, which once again reminded of the difficulties in the Chinese economy. During the Asian session on May 16, the instrument shows ambiguous dynamic in response to the publication of the April report on the Australian labor market on Thursday. Employment in April rose from 27.7K to 28.4K, which turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations of 14.0K. Unemployment Rate grew from 5.1% to 5.2%. The Employment rate rose due to a significant increase in private employment, while Full time employment in April showed a decline of 6.3K, after rising by 49.2K last month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar is trading in both directions against the Japanese yen, staying close to the local lows updated at the beginning of the week. The demand for yen is supported by the low interest in risk-taking, but overall trading activity remains low. Pressure on the Japanese currency yesterday was put by data on the Machine tool orders. According to preliminary estimates, in April, the figure fell by 33.4% after declining by 28.5% in March. During the Asian session, the yen is trading in both directions again. Investors are focused on a block of statistics from Japan. Stock investments by foreigners for the week as of May 10 reduced from 640.1B to 282.5B yen. Foreign bond investments increased from –257.0B to 20.8B yen.

Oil

Oil prices are rising moderately, recovering to local highs of the end of April. The quotes are supported by tensions in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia’s statements about the attacks on their oil production sites and tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. A more confident increase in prices on Wednesday was hampered by the report of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves. For a week as of May 10, oil stocks in US warehouses increased by 5.431M barrels, after a decrease of 3.963M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.800M barrels. At the same time, the report again reflected a decline in oil production from 12.200M to 12.100M barrels per day.
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Old 21-05-2019, 07:31
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Brent Crude Oil: general review

2019-05-21 09:04 (GMT+2) Brent

Current trend

Brent crude oil is traded in an upward channel with a resistance level at 73.60 and support level at 70.30.

Significant demand for "black gold" is provided by the possibility of new attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The second positive moment for the energy market is the decision of OPEC to adhere to a balanced market and not to increase current production. At the same time, representatives of the organization said they would focus on demand and monitor global reserves in order to be able to influence the situation in a timely manner. Under the current agreement, the countries of the oil cartel have agreed to reduce total production by 1.2M barrels per day. It is also worth noting that last week a report on drilling activity in the United States was published, showing that the number of active oil rigs fell from 805 to 802 units in a week. The slowdown of this indicator indicates a possible decrease in production growth in the United States: over the past two weeks, the rate of oil refining fell by 100K barrels per day. At the same time, in Canada the activity indicator remained at the same level: the number of drilling rigs was 22 units.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 35 points and does not provide any signals for the opening of transactions.
Resistance levels: 73.60, 74.50.
Support levels: 72.00, 71.20.

Trading tips

Open long positions after the breakout of 73.60 with take profit at 74.50 and stop loss at 73.25.
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  #797  
Old 23-05-2019, 08:03
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Bitcoin Cash: technical analysis

2019-05-23 10:00 (GMT+2) Bitcoin Cash

Current trend

BCH quotes failed to consolidate above 437.50 (Murrey [7/8]), although over the past two weeks they have made such attempts several times. Currently, the price stepped back to the level of 375.00 (Murrey [6/8]). The correction to the levels of 312.50 (Murrey [5/8]) and 250.00 (Murrey [4/8]) will be possible after the consolidation below the middle line of Bollinger bands around 350.00. The key “bullish” level is 437.50 (Murrey [7/8]). Fixing above it will give the prospect of growth to the upper border of the Murrey trading range around 500.00 (Murrey [8/8]) and to the level of 562.50 (Murrey [+1/8]).

Technical indicators do not give clear signals. Bollinger bands reversed upwards, confirming the preservation of the uptrend. Stochastic reverses downwards. The MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone and maintains a divergence with the price chart.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 562.50.
Support levels: 375.00, 312.50, 250.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 350.00 with the targets at 312.50, 250.00 and stop loss 385.00.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 437.50 with the targets at 500.00, 562.50 and stop loss 400.00.
Implementation period: 3–4 days.
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Old 28-05-2019, 07:05
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EUR/USD: general review

2019-05-28 08:33 (GMT+2) EUR/USD

Current trend

At the end of last week, EUR strengthened against USD amid weak macroeconomic releases from the US. Negative data heightened investor concerns about the growing tensions between the US and China, which threaten the growth of the American economy.

At the same time, EUR is still holding back from falling, despite the fact that the European Commission may in the near future fine Italy by 0.2% of GDP (about EUR 3.5 billion) due to the exceeded level of public debt. At the same time, EUR received moderate support from the results of European Parliament elections, where pro-European parties retained a majority.

Today at 10:00 (GMT+2), statistics on Private Sector Loans in the euro area is expected to be published, and at 11:00 (GMT+2), the results of the Business and Consumer Survey in the euro area will be published. In the afternoon, statistics on House Price Index (15:00 GMT+2) and CB Consumer Confidence in the US (16:00 GMT+2) are scheduled to be released. The recent fall in the stock market may adversely affect the confidence of American consumers, which will help strengthen the pair.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the instrument is trading below the center line of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upwards and the price range is reduced, which indicates the change of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic is leaving the oversold zone having formed a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.1201, 1.1223, 1.1247, 1.1264.
Support levels: 1.1180, 1.1160, 1.1143, 1.1127, 1.1111.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.1225 and stop loss at 1.1165.
Short positions may be opened below 1.1165 with target at 1.1110 and stop loss at 1.1185.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.
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Old 29-05-2019, 06:59
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EUR/USD: general review

2019-05-29 08:33 (GMT+2) EUR/USD

Current trend

EUR continues trading in a downtrend. Pressure on the euro is exerted by the news that the European Commission may begin the procedure for the imposition of disciplinary sanctions in Italy because of the exceeded level of public debt, which reached 132% of GDP. The Commission believes that the Italian government is not making enough effort to reduce this value. The fine may be about EUR 3.5 billion. If monetary penalties are really applied to Italy, this may increase discontent among the population and cause protest sentiments aimed at leaving the EU.

In turn, USD also remains under pressure due to the intensification of the trade war between the United States and China, which keeps the euro from a stronger fall. Against this background, one can hardly expect a change in monetary policy by the Fed, and this is a negative point for USD.

Today, data on French GDP will be published, and the speech of the head of the German Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, is also expected. On Thursday, US GDP data will be published.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 38 points and does not provide any signals for the opening of transactions.
Resistance levels: 1.1179, 1.1214.
Support levels: 1.1141, 1.1100.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 1.1214 with take profit at 1.1100 and stop loss at 1.1250.
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Old 30-05-2019, 08:10
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2019-05-30 07:34 EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (121.76). The closest resistance level is the upper border of the cloud (122.69).

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (121.76). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (122.63).

Recommendation

On the four-hour chart we can see a correction of the downward movement. On the daily chart the Bearish trend is still strong. It is recommended to open short positions at current price with Take Profit at the level of previous minimum of Chikou Span line (121.76) and Stop Loss at the level of Kijun-sen line (122.63).

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