Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com


Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Forex Analysis


Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Forex Analysis


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1121  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:12
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1700 and local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Another decline in EUR is due to technical factors, as investors fix their long positions ahead of the publication of the September report on the US labor market. The previously strong ADP report on private sector employment provided significant support to market sentiment. It is likely that Friday's statistics will also be better than forecasts, which, however, will only provide USD with a short-term support. The market today reacts to any optimistic signals from the US with an increase in demand for risky assets. European investors today expect the publication of data on Consumer Prices in the euro area in September. In addition, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will speak during the day.

GBP/USD

GBP is declining during this morning session, developing the corrective impulse formed the day before, when the pair retreated from its highs since September 18. Market participants are closing part of their long positions on the instrument before the publication of the US labor market report for September. In addition, investors are concerned about the rapid increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus, which could significantly complicate the recovery of the British economy. Yesterday, the UK reported a decline in the Manufacturing PMI from 54.3 to 54.1 points, while analysts did not expect it to change at all. The US data was slightly better, but also reflected a slowdown in growth. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 56 to 55.4 points against the forecast of growth to 56.3 points.

AUD/USD

AUD has declined against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated on Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.7150 for a breakdown. Buying activity for the instrument is expected to decline at the end of the week, as investors are fixing long profits. In addition, traders are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of the report on the US labor market, which, given the previously published strong report from ADP, may be positive. AUD was slightly supported on Friday by the Australian Retail Sales statistics. In August, sales were down by 4% MoM after falling by 4.2% MoM in the previous month.

USD/JPY

USD is growing during today's morning trading session, again approaching its local highs since September 15, which were updated at trading last Wednesday. USD is strengthening after yesterday's publication of rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US. At the same time, it should be noted that strong data from the US is leading to an increase in demand for risky assets; however, paired with the "safe" JPY, USD is expected to win. The number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending September 25 fell from 873K to 837K, which was better than market expectations of 850K. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index was also positive, having increased by 1.6% YoY in August, accelerating from the previous value of +1.4% YoY. JPY was also under pressure from weak data from Japan. Japan's Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, and the Jobs/Applicants Ratio for the same period corrected from 1.08 to 1.04.

XAU/USD

Gold prices decline significantly during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Investors are fixing long positions ahead of the release of reports on the US labor market on Friday, as well as responding to some improvement in market sentiment. Strong data from the US supported the demand for risk, especially after the US Treasury officials said that the chances of early approval of the new economic aid package increased markedly. At the same time, gold continues to benefit from rising coronavirus incidence statistics in Europe. The trend has not yet been reversed, as many countries are reluctant to return quarantine restrictions, fearing to disrupt the fragile economic recovery. Today investors are focused on the publication of the US labor market report. Investors expect the emergence of 850K new jobs in Non-Farm Payrolls, which is significantly less than the previous growth of 1.371M. However, given the strong performance in private sector employment, it is possible that the real dynamics will be noticeably better.
Reply With Quote
  #1122  
Old 05-10-2020, 07:27
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing weak gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from last Friday's decline, which turned out to be quite rich in various news drivers. First of all, the markets discussed Donald Trump's sudden quarantine in connection with a positive test for COVID-19. Investors fear that Trump will not be able to continue the political race in such conditions, with only about a month left before the presidential elections. Some pressure on the positions of EUR on Friday was exerted by the data from the eurozone. Consumer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% YoY, accelerating from the previous decrease by 0.2% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index for the same period decelerated from +0.4% YoY to +0.2% YoY, while forecasts assumed its growth to +0.5% YoY. On Monday, investors are focused on the European statistics on Markit Services PMI, as well as the August data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the euro area.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, maintaining a weak "bullish" advantage, preserved from last week. GBP buying activity is noticeably weakening amid new statements by Boris Johnson, who reiterated that the UK will be able to do without a trade agreement with the EU after the Brexit transition period ends at the end of the year. However, the Prime Minister stressed that he would like a different outcome of the situation, but so far the parties are faced with insurmountable contradictions during the negotiations. The US macroeconomic statistics released on Friday had an ambiguous impact on the market dynamics. In September Non-Farm Payrolls showed growth only by 661K new jobs, while last month was marked by an increase of 1.489M. Experts expected the growth by 850K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the USA in September has steadily decreased from 8.4% to 7.9% against the forecast of 8.2%.

AUD/USD

AUD is trading in both directions against USD in the ultra-short term, being located near its local highs and the level of 0.7200. Investors reacted rather restrainedly to Friday's data on the US labor market, because Donald Trump's positive test for COVID-19 became the main subject of speculation unexpectedly for everyone. The news of the US President's illness increased the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming November elections, and helped to reduce the demand for risky assets. Moderate support for AUD at the beginning of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in September rose from 50 to 50.8 points, which was better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.5 to 51.1 points. TD Securities Inflation data in September reflected growth by 0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was in line with previous estimates.

USD/JPY

USD is gaining strength against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.23% and is testing the level of 105.60 for a breakout. USD again received an impulse to grow as a safe-haven currency after Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus, which became the main topic of speculation at the end of last week. Japanese statistics, published on Friday, failed to provide significant support to JPY. The Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, which was expected. Jobs / Applicants Ratio in August decreased from 1.08 to 1.04 against the forecast of 1.05. At the same time, the Consumer Confidence Index in September rose from 29.3 to 32.7 points, which, however, did not meet investors' expectations at 33.8 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, developing a correctional decline since last Friday, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since September 22. The appearance of "bearish" trend was facilitated by the corrective sentiment in the market, which intensified at the end of last week with the unexpected message about Donald Trump's positive test for coronavirus. Now investors are trying to predict the possible consequences of the forced quarantine of the US President, which is especially important on the eve of the presidential election, which is only a month away. Trump's rival for the presidency, Joe Biden, has also drawn attention in this regard. Analysts do not exclude the possibility of postponing the elections in the event of a hypothetical infection of Biden.
Reply With Quote
  #1123  
Old 06-10-2020, 07:28
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, developing a strong "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. Market sentiment improved markedly yesterday after reports that President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital soon. In addition, traders again believed in the imminent approval of a new stimulus package for the US economy, which was probably also facilitated by Trump's diagnosis.

Macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone released on Monday provided additional support to EUR. Retail Sales in the euro area increased by 4.4% MoM in August after falling by 1.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected increase by 2.4% MoM only. On an annualized basis, sales increased by 3.7% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY. The forecast assumed growth by 2.2% YoY.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also testing the zero level for a breakout. Stochastic, approaching the level of "80" shows multidirectional dynamics, signaling that EUR is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1808, 1.1860, 1.1881, 1.1916.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1751, 1.1700, 1.1657.
Reply With Quote
  #1124  
Old 07-10-2020, 07:40
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating at 1.1730. The day before, EUR showed a steady decline and retreated from its local highs since September 21, which was associated with a rather unexpected statement from Donald Trump, who suspended negotiations on a new program to support the US economy until the November elections. Interestingly, Trump made this statement just a few hours after the speech by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated the urgent need for new stimulus measures and pointed out the risks of a recession in the American economy. The President of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke about the need for new support measures on Tuesday, reminding the markets that the regulator is still able to reduce rates to negative values.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today's morning session, slightly recovering after the active decline the day before, which interrupted the uncertain "bullish" trend for the instrument since September 24. GBP reacted with a confident fall to the statements of Donald Trump, who decided to end the controversy over a new stimulus program for the US economy and postponed this process until after the November presidential elections. Investors were disappointed with these statements, as at the beginning of the week the market was dominated by direct opposite sentiments and traders were selling USD on growing expectations of a quick approval of a new package of measures. Today, traders are focused on the US Fed Meeting Minutes and the speech by the Fed representative John Williams.

AUD/USD

AUD shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline yesterday, which was triggered by a new wave of growth in investor demand for safe assets. USD has significantly strengthened after Donald Trump's statement on the decision to postpone the discussion of a new package of measures to support the American economy until the November presidential elections. Some pressure on AUD on Tuesday was also exerted by the decision of the RBA to keep interest rate at 0.25%. However, despite extensive discussion of the possibility of further rate cuts, little was expected from the regulator at the current meeting. The dynamics of Exports was much more disappointing, as the figure fell by 4.2% MoM in August after falling by 3.4% MoM in the previous month. Against the background of a slowdown in Imports from +6.2% MoM to +2% MoM, this led to a sharp decrease in the Trade Surplus from AUD 4.652B to AUD 2.643B, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations at AUD 5.154B.

USD/JPY

USD has shown a slight increase during today's morning trading session, recovering from an uncertain decline the day before, which did not allow USD to consolidate at new local highs since September 15. The market has actively reacted to Donald Trump's intention to suspend the process of discussing new support measures for the American economy, but JPY is already in high demand as a safe haven currency today. The speech of the US Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell also contributed to the reduction of the demand for risk on Tuesday. The Chairman of the regulator noted that the process of recovery of the American economy is far from complete and there are still significant downside risks on the market, associated with the renewed increase in the incidence of coronavirus. Powell called for support for households, but now it seems that this will have to wait a while, unless party representatives are able to take the initiative and make significant concessions.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, staying below 1900.00, the breakdown of which was recorded the day before. The strengthening of the "bearish" dynamics on Tuesday was associated with a rather unexpected statement by Donald Trump, who decided to suspend the negotiations on a new fiscal stimulus package until the end of the presidential elections in November. The President's statement came against the backdrop of numerous calls for further support for the American economy, as well as against the backdrop of outlined progress in the discussions (at the beginning of the week, regular talks were held between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin).
Reply With Quote
  #1125  
Old 08-10-2020, 07:31
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: the instrument consolidates

Current trend

Today during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the local lows of September 21. Yesterday, USD fell after a corrective growth on Tuesday, when markets reacted violently to Trump's sudden announcement of a freeze on negotiations under a new program to support the American economy. Canadian Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics was rather poor. Thus, the index of business activity from Ivey for September fell from 67.8 to 54.3 points, which was worse than the market average forecasts.

On Thursday, Canadian investors are awaiting the publication of information on the dynamics of construction started in September. By the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, who only recently took office (June 3, 2020). On Friday, the September report on the Canadian labor market will be released, as the corresponding from the US released last week.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow uncertainly. The price range changes insignificantly but remains wide enough for the current level of market activity. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards at the lows, reflecting that the dollar is oversold in the super short term.

To open new trading positions, it is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3440.
Support levels: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3132.
Reply With Quote
  #1126  
Old 09-10-2020, 08:18
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is showing moderate gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs, updated on October 6. Market sentiment is gradually improving after the softening of the position of Donald Trump, who earlier announced the suspension of negotiations on a financial assistance program for the American economy. The US President said that he would consider the possibility of direct support of the labor market through an increase in unemployment benefits, if such a bill is formed. As for the full-scale package of measures, Trump plans to return to its consideration after the presidential elections, of course, if he manages to win them. Some support for EUR on Thursday was provided by the ECB September meeting minutes, which again reflected the readiness of the regulator to go for additional easing of the monetary policy if necessary.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading positively against USD during today's morning session, developing ultra-short-term "bullish" momentum and returning to local highs of last Tuesday. Risk demand is gradually recovering towards the end of the week, as investors react to Donald Trump's adjustment on stimulus measures for the economy. Earlier Trump suspended negotiations on a new program to support the American economy until the end of the presidential elections, but then announced his readiness to consider certain direct initiatives aimed at supporting the labor market, the aviation sector, and a number of other problematic areas. On Friday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production for August. The published data will later be commented on by the representative of the Bank of England Andrew Haldane.

AUD/USD

AUD is strengthening against USD in trading this morning session, developing an ultra-short-term uptrend and again approaching 0.7200. In addition to the improvement in market sentiment associated with the softening of Donald Trump's stance on stimulating the US economy, the instrument is supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China on Friday. Home Loans issued in Australia in August rose by 13.6% YoY after increasing by 10.7% YoY last month. Investment Lending for Homes also increased markedly by 9.3% YoY in the same period after increasing by 3.5% YoY in the previous month. The Chinese data was encouraging by further gains in the Caixin PMI. In the services sector, the September indicator rose from 54 to 54.8 points, which turned out to be much better than the forecasts for a decrease to 50.7 points.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 14, updated last Wednesday. The emergence of negative dynamics for the instrument is due to technical factors, as well as a restrained increase in optimism in the market after new statements by Donald Trump regarding certain measures to support households and companies. JPY is also slightly supported by today's macroeconomic data from Japan. Labor Cash Earnings in August fell by 1.3% YoY instead of the expected decline by 1.5% YoY. Overall Household Spending in Japan also slightly improved in August: from –7.6% YoY to –6.9% YoY, which coincided with the estimates.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are significantly strengthening during today's Asian session, responding to corrective sentiment for USD, which is declining amid hopes for partial support of the American economy. Donald Trump urged to support airlines, which are preparing mass layoffs of employees due to the crisis. Direct assistance is also possible for individual small businesses that have found themselves in a difficult situation. Macroeconomic statistics from the US released on Thursday also exerted some pressure on USD. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 2 declined from 849K to 840K, which was worse than projected decline to 820K.
Reply With Quote
  #1127  
Old 12-10-2020, 07:18
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure

Current trend

USD is actively declining against JPY during today's Asian trading session, developing last Friday's "bearish" signal, which was formed against the backdrop of a sharp rise in risk demand. Traders reacted to renewed talks on a new stimulus package for the American economy, despite Donald Trump's decision to suspend them last week until the presidential election in November.

The Japanese macroeconomic statistics released today had an ambiguous impact on the instrument dynamics. Bank Lending in September slowed down from +6.7% YoY to +6.4% YoY with the forecast of growth to +7.5% YoY. Machinery Orders in August sharply slowed down from +6.3% MoM to +0.2% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than the expected –1.0% MoM.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates a more confident decline and is currently located approximately in the center of its area, signaling the prospects for the development of an ultra-short-term downward correction.

Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 105.60, 105.79, 106.00, 106.20.
Support levels: 105.43, 105.19, 105.00, 104.75.
Reply With Quote
  #1128  
Old 13-10-2020, 07:58
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: prices are falling

Current trend

Today during the Asian session, oil prices are consolidating near $39.50 per barrel after a two-day “bearish” rally. At the start of the week, quotes were under pressure by increased market supply as US oil producers resumed their work in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Delta moved inland. Also, production is increasing in Libya, where the largest field, El Sharara, has resumed its work. Finally, Norwegian oil workers have ended their strike, which should also help boost oil production.

On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics from the US on consumer inflation and the API report on oil reserves for October 9. The previous publication reflected a slight increase of 0.951 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of market activity. The MACD indicator is stretching into the line near the zero line. At the moment, the indicator readings are not informative enough. Stochastic, on the other hand, maintains a confident downward trend, which hardly correlates with the real dynamics in the market.

It is better to wait until the market situation becomes clear to open new trading positions for the instrument.

Resistance levels: 39.57, 40.00, 40.60, 41.43.
Support levels: 38.97, 38.62, 38.00, 36.75.
Reply With Quote
  #1129  
Old 14-10-2020, 07:02
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian trading session and are consolidating at 1900.00. The day before, the instrument showed a confident decline, which was caused by the growth of USD in response to the general deterioration in market sentiment.

Investors are still discussing the topic of stimulus measures for the US economy, but more and more analysts are in favor of the fact that the new package of measures will be adopted after the US presidential elections on November 3. Additional support for gold is also provided by the fact that Joe Biden is leading in the presidential race, since if he wins the election, the presidential administration may increase spending at first. Finally, the difficult situation with the coronavirus in the world contributes to the growth in demand for safe assets. WHO records the strongest increase in daily incidence since spring, while no state has completed clinical trials of the vaccine yet. Johnson & Johnson is suspending trials of its vaccine because one of the volunteers had adverse reactions.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional dynamics appearance in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a new weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing slightly more stable decline and is located in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1900.00, 1920.82, 1935.00, 1955.00.
Support levels: 1885.00, 1872.80, 1850.00.
Reply With Quote
  #1130  
Old 15-10-2020, 07:33
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers

Current trend

EUR is trading in different directions against USD during today's morning session, waiting for new drivers. The trading on Wednesday was also mixed, which was facilitated by the low demand for risk, as well as the weak position of USD against the background of vague prospects for new stimuli in the US.

The statistics from the eurozone released on Monday put additional pressure on EUR. Industrial Production in August fell sharply from 5% MoM to 0.7% MoM, which turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations at +0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in production accelerated from –7.1% YoY to –7.2% YoY, which, however, coincided with the forecasts. European investors are focused on the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde before the start of the IMF and European Council meetings at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show unsteady growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a new sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator tests the zero mark for the breakdown. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold euro in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1806, 1.1850, 1.1881.
Support levels: 1.1732, 1.1700, 1.1657, 1.1625.
Reply With Quote
  #1131  
Old 19-10-2020, 09:21
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Brent Crude Oil: prices stabilized

Current trend

Against the backdrop of global tensions on world markets, oil prices are trading within a narrow range, currently being around $42.70 per barrel.

This week, the instrument has practically not changed against the previous week. The oil market is under pressure from low demand for energy, the forecast of which looks unfavorable against the background of the introduction of additional quarantine measures in the EU countries, which are the main importers. Moreover, the volume of oil exports from the United States fell to the year’s lows at 2.135 million barrels per day.

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the demand for oil contracts has been staying at roughly the same levels for over a month. The number of pure speculative positions showed a slight weekly increase to 472.8K against 471.5K a week earlier.

Support and resistance

Locally, the price moves within a wide sideways channel, and, trading near the resistance line, forms the first signs of a possible reversal. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal but the readings are not so obvious anymore. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range began to narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the buy zone very close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 43.20, 46.00.
Support levels: 42.35, 39.10.

Reply With Quote
  #1132  
Old 20-10-2020, 07:46
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: oil prices are consolidating

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, oil prices show flat dynamics, holding near the level of $40.50 per barrel. Yesterday, the instrument was slightly supported by renewed hopes that a new stimulus package in the United States will be adopted before the presidential elections in November. However, by the close of the daytime session, optimism in the sentiment declined, and investors returned to discussing other problems.

A new growth factor may be the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, where the cartel and its allies are expected to adjust the current program to reduce the supply of "black gold" to the market, as well as clarify the prospects for a gradual recovery in oil production next year.

On Tuesday, investors are focused on the American Petroleum Institute's report on oil reserves for the week of October 16. The previous publication reflected a sharp decline of 5.42 million barrels.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range narrows slightly from below, remaining spacious enough for the current level of market activity. The MACD indicator slightly decreases, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed at 80 and signals in favor of developing a corrective decline in the ultra-short term.

It is better to wait for the clarification of signals from technical indicators for opening new trading positions.

Resistance levels: 41.00, 41.43, 42.00.
Support levels: 40.00, 39.57, 38.97, 38.62.

Reply With Quote
  #1133  
Old 21-10-2020, 08:25
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: gold is strengthening

Current trend

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, taking advantage of the weakness of USD and updating local highs since October 13. The instrument is still supported by a high level of uncertainty in the market, which is associated with many factors. One of them is a new program of financial assistance for the American economy, around which real political battles unfolded. Investors are also noticeably concerned about the leadership of Democrat Joe Biden in the election race, which, if elected president, could dramatically increase budget spending, including supporting the economy amid the ongoing pandemic. The final debate of the presidential candidates will take place this Thursday, October 22.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakout. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, approaching the level of "80", which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1920.82, 1935.00, 1955.00, 1966.25.
Support levels: 1910.00, 1900.00, 1885.00, 1872.80.

Reply With Quote
  #1134  
Old 22-10-2020, 07:26
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR is declining

Current trend

EUR shows moderate decline against USD today, retreating from local highs since September 16, updated the day before. Technical factors were the reason for the appearance of the "bearish" trend for the instrument, while USD remains under pressure amid expectations of new measures to support the American economy.

The deadline for the ultimatum put forward by the House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi expired the day before, but she chose to extend the deadline for one more day. In turn, Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on the Republican Party in an attempt to approve a larger aid package.

On Thursday, in addition to news regarding the long-awaited stimulus measures for the US, investors expect the publication of data on jobless claims in the US. Interesting data from Europe will appear on Friday, when the business activity indicators for October are released in Germany and the eurozone.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding from above, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps the uptrend but is approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1850, 1.1879, 1.1916, 1.1950.

Support levels: 1.1830, 1.1800, 1.1763, 1.1732.

Reply With Quote
  #1135  
Old 23-10-2020, 08:45
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Brent Crude Oil: price stabilized

Current trend

Oil prices are in a narrow range, rising to $42.20 per barrel.

The hope that the US Congress will approve the new stimulus package before the elections has almost completely disappeared after the next negotiations did not take place, and the representatives on both sides cited the workload of their schedules, thereby signaling to the markets that the deal was unnecessary. The dollar immediately declined, and oil price returned to the levels of the beginning of the week after declining on Wednesday on data from the EIA.

Yesterday, the World Bank raised its forecast for the average oil price in 2020 to $41 per barrel. The forecast for next year has also been increased to $44 per barrel. However, the organization noted that demand will grow very slowly, as global tourism continues to be hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the global economy is not expected to recover until next year.

Support and resistance

On the local chart, the price moves within a wide sideways channel and, being near the resistance line, forms a narrower corridor. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed with the signal one and the AO oscillator histogram came close to the transition zone.

Resistance levels: 42.50, 43.50.
Support levels: 42.00, 41.10.


Reply With Quote
  #1136  
Old 26-10-2020, 07:44
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is falling against USD during today's Asian session, again consolidating near local highs, updated in the middle of last trading week. The pressure on EUR remains amid the ambiguous prospects for the global economy, which faced a second wave of COVID-19 and a number of restrictions imposed mainly by European countries. Macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the eurozone released last Friday were disappointing. Markit Services PMI in October declined from 48 to 46.2 points with the forecast of the decline to 47 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 53.7 to 54.4 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of growth to 53.1 points. The Composite PMI in October fell below the psychological level of 50 points to 49.4 points, which, in general, was in line with market expectations.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with negative dynamics against USD since the opening of a new trading week, developing a fairly strong "bearish" momentum, which was formed in the middle of last week. The instrument almost completely ignored the strong UK Retail Sales statistics released on October 23. The data reflected Retail Sales growth by 1.5% MoM in September after rising by 0.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the index to 0.4% MoM. On an annualized basis, sales rose by 2.7% to 4.7% YoY, which was also better than average forecasts of 3.7% YoY. Business activity statistics were significantly worse. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell in October from 54.1 to 53.3 points, which was only 0.2 points better than market expectations. Services PMI fell from 56.1 to 52.3 points with the forecast of falling to 54 points.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD during today's morning session, correcting after an uncertain rise in the instrument at the end of the last trading week. The pair is under pressure from the corrective growth of USD, while the fundamental picture of the market changes insignificantly. AUD also reacts sluggishly to the macroeconomic statistics from Australia released on Monday. Exports from Australia increased by 3% in September after falling by 4.2% in the previous month. Imports for the same period fell by 1% after rising by 2% in August. Such a significant discrepancy between the dynamics of imports and exports led to an increase in the trade surplus almost doubled, from AUD 2.643B to AUD 5.114B. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the United States on the dynamics of New Home Sales and Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September.

USD/JPY

USD has shown strong gains against JPY during today's Asian session, preparing to test the strong resistance at 105.00. Moderate support for USD is provided by the macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity published at the end of the last trading week. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October showed a slight increase from 53.2 to 53.3 points, which fell slightly short of market expectations. In turn, Services PMI for the same period increased from 54.6 to 56 points, while analysts did not expect any changes in the indicator at all. Markit Composite PMI in October rose from 54.3 to 55.5 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's morning session, consolidating near 1900.00. The instrument has been declining since last Thursday, when USD managed to show corrective growth in response to mixed messages regarding the new economic stimulus package in the US. After repeatedly saying that it would be extremely difficult to reach an agreement before the November US elections, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced "significant progress" on the deal and said new measures could be approved "very soon". The presidential elections in the United States will take place next week, on November 3.
Reply With Quote
  #1137  
Old 27-10-2020, 07:44
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: oil weakens again

Current trend

Oil prices continue to decline, trading around 38.60.

It looks like COVID-19 will again intervene in OPEC's long-term plans. During the next meeting, which is scheduled for November, the OPEC countries were expected to discuss the issue of increasing quotas for oil production by 2 million barrels per day but there is less hope for this. The second wave of the pandemic provokes new restrictive measures that negatively affect demand. Additional difficulties were created by Libya, which plans to increase production by 800K barrels over the next two weeks, and by 1 million barrels within a month.

In general, experts assess the supply on the oil market as overstated, and with the current demand, the asset's quotes will continue to decline further.

Support and resistance

The corrective movement continues within the local sideways channel, within which the price forms a new wave of decline. Technical indicators reversed and gave a clear sell signal. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range is expanding towards decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 39.00, 41.30.
Support levels: 38.20, 36.50.

Reply With Quote
  #1138  
Old 28-10-2020, 06:58
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: the euro is declining

Current trend

EUR has been declining against USD during today's Asian trading session, building on the "bearish" momentum that formed earlier this week. Risk demand remains under pressure again amid an alarming rise in the global incidence of COVID-19.

Investors are also disappointed with the approval process for a new stimulus package for the US economy. Despite all the efforts of US lawmakers, it seems that there will be no results before the November elections. The Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell decided to postpone the meeting until November 9, which practically puts an end to the last hopes of reaching agreement on the deal. The bailout and stimulus package was not approved due to the principled position of the Senate, which did not agree to Donald Trump's proposal to approve a larger aid package.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range consolidated within rather wide boundaries, which correspond to the observed dynamics in the market. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining almost vertically, rapidly approaching its lows, indicating the risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1850, 1.1879.
Support levels: 1.1763, 1.1732, 1.1700, 1.1657.

Reply With Quote
  #1139  
Old 29-10-2020, 07:08
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAG/USD: general review

Current trend

Silver prices are showing modest gains during today's morning trading session, correcting after a strong decline the day before, which led to renewed local lows since October 7. Investors are worried about new restrictions that more and more European countries are imposing in response to increasing epidemiological risks. A serious increase in the incidence is also observed in the US, where presidential elections are to be held on November 3. The market seems to have come to terms with the fact that there is no time left to approve new support measures for the American economy before the elections, and the main intrigue now is whether Donald Trump will be able to arrange the approval of the agreement after the vote count.

Today, investors await the publication of updated data on the dynamics of Initial Jobless Claims in the USA, as well as the data on the US GDP for Q3 2020.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the surge of the "bearish" sentiment at the moment. MACD is going down keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20" is reversing upwards, signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 23.60, 24.00, 24.37, 25.00.
Support levels: 23.00, 22.40, 21.63, 21.00.

Reply With Quote
  #1140  
Old 30-10-2020, 06:59
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: the instrument is declining

Current trend

GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian trading session, consolidating near 1.2900, which was actively tested the day before. Quite good data from the USA provided some support to USD yesterday. The dynamics of US GDP in Q3 2020 showed a steady growth of 33.1% YoY, fully compensating for an equally active decline of 31.4% in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 31% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 23 fell from 791K to 751K, which turned out to be better than the projected 775K.

British investors, in turn, reacted negatively to the fall in Consumer Credit in September by GBP 0.6B after rising by GBP 0.285B last month. Analysts expected growth of GBP 0.75B.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is expanded from below reflecting rise of "bearish" sentiment in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3081, 1.3125.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2800, 1.2761.

Reply With Quote
  #1141  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:38
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: the pair grows

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair slightly grows amid lower USD activity, trading at 1.3340.

The American market is almost completely frozen. Trading volume and USD Index fell to their lows since the beginning of the year. Tomorrow, the most anticipated event of the year will take place – the US presidential election. Although most preliminary polls point to Joe Biden's victory, nothing has been decided yet since previously, the situation was the same with Hillary Clinton, who was also far ahead of Donald Trump in polls.

Canada's economy continues to recover smoothly, approaching pre-pandemic levels. The GDP level for August reached 1.2%, and the indicator has been growing for the fourth month in a row. The levels of production of goods and services increased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, while the price indices for goods and raw materials slightly decreased to –0.1% and –2.2%. 15 industrial sectors out of 20 strengthened, and 2 of them did not change.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, a rare pattern of candlestick analysis Volume candlestick has formed, which is quite logical, given the fundamental background. For the pattern, the direction of price movement is not important, and pending orders should be placed in both directions. Technical indicators are in purchase. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram entered the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3389, 1.3468.
Support levels: 1.3277, 1.3225.

Reply With Quote
  #1142  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:36
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

WTI Crude Oil: a new growth wave

Current trend

The oil price came to a standstill after a sharp rise, trading near the level of 36.70.

The oil market is at extremely low levels, and traders’ hopes were focused on the new parameters of the OPEC+ deal, which assumed an increase in production volumes from the beginning of 2021 in proportion to the increase in demand. However, demand is declining more and more, so only new reductions are being discussed.

On Friday, OPEC published production levels in its member countries. As the data showed, most countries reduced it according to the last monitoring committee meeting’s plan, and growth is observed only in Libya, which is also expected. The volume of production there amounted to 0.16 million against 0.11 million earlier. The largest reduction was achieved in the UAE, where production is 2.53 million barrels per day against 2.71 million earlier. Saudi Arabia also slightly increased production, where it is 8.96 million barrels per day against the background of 8.89 million a month earlier.

Support and resistance

The corrective movement continues within the global sideways channel, within which the price forms a new growth wave. Technical indicators remain in a sell signal state. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range begins to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moves in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 37.90, 42.00.
Support levels: 34.20, 28.70.

Reply With Quote
  #1143  
Old 05-11-2020, 07:17
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Current trend

The USD/JPY pair continues to correct downward, trading at 104.30.

The Japanese currency began to actively win back yesterday's losses from the very morning. Service PMI for October, released in the morning, was positive, rising unexpectedly to 47.7 points against the forecast of 46.9 points. Yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee met to focus on the impact of the pandemic on Japanese growth. According to the committee's forecasts, economic growth by the end of the year will slow down by a value in the range of –5.6% to –5.3%, and in 2021 it will again recover to the levels of 3.0–3.8%.

The US dollar lost its positive momentum. The preliminary election results, which were positive for Donald Trump, threaten to turn into defeat. According to the election headquarters, Joe Biden is already gaining 264 electoral votes, while Trump has only 214. Trump has already begun to actively declare fraud and readiness to sue to review the results in key states, where he first won but then unexpectedly lost.

Support and resistance

The global downtrend continues to form within the downtrend channel, within which another wave of decline is forming. Technical indicators are in a global sale state. Fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal one, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading deep in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 104.70, 105.30.
Support levels: 104.15, 103.00.

Reply With Quote
  #1144  
Old 06-11-2020, 08:31
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Brent Crude Oil: oil is weakening
Current trend

Oil prices began to decline again, dropping to $39.50 per barrel.

EIA data on oil reserves confirmed OPEC's negative scenario. The indicator fell by 7.998 million barrels against the background of the expected increase in reserves by 0.890 million. These data did not have a positive effect on the instrument. On the contrary, investors began to expect with even greater concern the data correction next week. Yesterday, Saudi Aramco said it would cut its December selling prices for Asian buyers. The company decided to take such a step due to a decrease in demand for the company's products under the influence of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It is becoming more and more obvious that at the OPEC meeting to be held in mid-November, the main issue will be a new cut in production volumes, which the Russian Federation is actively opposing so far.

Support and resistance

On the local chart, the price moves within the local Expanding formation pattern, within which it approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal but are starting to slow down. The range of fluctuations of the EMA indicator Alligator begins to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is approaching the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 41.10, 43.50.
Support levels: 38.90, 35.30.

Reply With Quote
  #1145  
Old 06-11-2020, 17:14
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 681
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

It has almost reached 1.1900, it may even break out above that level, I think.
Reply With Quote
  #1146  
Old 09-11-2020, 06:22
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAU/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 5 of (3) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2013.38–2074.22. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1880.51.


Reply With Quote
  #1147  
Old 10-11-2020, 06:01
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CHF: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, an upward correction of the higher level forms as the wave (2), within which the development of the wave C of (2) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of C is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.9295–0.9398. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.8982.


Reply With Quote
  #1148  
Old 11-11-2020, 05:57
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The correction ended, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction is forming as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1603.


Reply With Quote
  #1149  
Old 12-11-2020, 06:38
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CAD: wave analysis

The pair may fall.

On the 4-hour chart, a correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), and the formation of the downward wave (3) started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction ii of 1 of (3), the pair will fall to the levels of 1.2800–1.2700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3156.


Reply With Quote
  #1150  
Old 13-11-2020, 06:59
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Current trend

USD declines actively against JPY during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse formed the day before. USD is actively testing 105.00 for a breakdown, partially offsetting the active growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which was caused by the reports of the successful completion of the Phase III of clinical trials of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine.

Some support to USD on Thursday was provided by the data on the dynamics of jobless claims. The number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 6 decreased from 757K to 709K, which turned out to be better than the projected 735K. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the period ending October 30 also showed a steady decline from 7.222M to 6.786M with the forecast for a decrease only to 6.9M.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is widening from above, maintaining the "bullish" momentum in the short term after the strong growth of the instrument on November 9. MACD is reversing downwards preserving the previous buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its highs, indicating the overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

It is worth looking into the possibility of a corrective decline in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 105.00, 105.33, 105.60, 105.79.

Support levels: 104.75, 104.50, 104.20, 104.00.



Reply With Quote
  #1151  
Old 16-11-2020, 07:19
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a local correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the development of the fifth wave v of 1 has begun, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a correction has developed as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow within the wave (iii) of v to the levels of 1.2012–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1739.


Reply With Quote
  #1152  
Old 17-11-2020, 07:51
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Silver stays at last week's levels, trading at $24.65 per ounce.

World prices for precious metals are still fairly stable. The amount of investment capital is held without significant changes. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), over the past week, the number of pure speculative positions in silver increased slightly, reaching 45.8K against 45.3K a week earlier.

The indicators of demand for a commodity asset do not change either. In October, the volume of industrial production of the main importer of metal, China, remained at the September levels and amounted to 6.9%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in October fell to 5.3% from 5.4% in the previous month. The level of foreign direct investment continues to grow and is already at the level of 2019, reaching 6.40%.

Support and resistance

On the global chart of the asset, the price continues to correct downward within the downwards channel. After reaching the resistance line, another wave of decline continues to form. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator intertwined with the signal one and the AO oscillator histogram is at the transition level and is ready to enter the negative zone at any moment.

Resistance levels: 25.73, 29.10.
Support levels: 24.00, 21.60.

Reply With Quote
  #1153  
Old 18-11-2020, 07:24
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: the pair is growing

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an uptrend, trading around 1.1874.

The long-awaited speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde took place yesterday, and its main topic was the prospects for the recovery of the EU economy. According to the head of the regulator, even in 2021, the economy will not be able to reach pre-quarantine levels. The key task for the bank for this and next year will be to prevent the current economic crisis from escalating into a financial one. Lagarde noted that she expects the average GDP to fall by 8% in 2020 but the introduction of a stricter quarantine is out of the question, as this could lead to an even deeper crisis.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to experience significant difficulties. Macroeconomic statistics moved from positive to negative. The underlying retail sales index for October was 0.2%, significantly worse than the 1.2% a month earlier. The volume of retail sales for October fell to 0.3% from 1.6% in September.

Support and resistance

Globally, the correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram is kept in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2080.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.

Reply With Quote
  #1154  
Old 19-11-2020, 09:06
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

USD/CHF: USD is consolidating

Current trend

USD is trading near zero against CHF during today's Asian session, consolidating near strong support at 0.9100. USD received a short-term impulse to growth, which, however, was more due to technical factors. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday turned out to be rather negative and could hardly have contributed to the development of correctional sentiments in favor of USD. Building Permits Change in October showed zero dynamics after a solid growth of 4.7% in September. Housing Starts Change in October decreased from +6.3% to +4.9%. MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending November 13 fell by 0.3% after declining by 0.5% in the previous period.

Traders are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of jobless claims. Investors expect the indicators to continue declining moderately, but the number of Initial Jobless Claims is unlikely to fall below the psychological level of 700K.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD preserves moderate decline and a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a sideways channel, signaling about risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9126, 0.9155, 0.9200, 0.9239.
Support levels: 0.9100, 0.9074, 0.9028, 0.9000.



Reply With Quote
  #1155  
Old 20-11-2020, 07:03
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: the pair grows

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving within an upward trend, trading around the level of 1.1890.

The online summit of the EU leaders ended yesterday. The main issues were the settlement of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the vaccine against COVID-19. The leaders agreed to expedite the preparation of national vaccination plans as quickly as possible and expressed their hope that one of the vaccines will soon be available for mass use.

The US dollar is weakening against the major world currencies, trading at 92.220. Investors reacted negatively to the news that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin refused to extend some emergency funding programs. In a situation where there are no negotiations on new incentives and the current programs are not extended, investors are leaving the dollar. Another negative factor was the data on Initial Jobless Claims, the number of which increased by 742K instead of the expected 707K.

Support and resistance

Globally, a correction develops within a wide sideways channel, and the price approaches the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram stays in the buy zone. In general, the situation is suitable for a quick reversal and trend change.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.2160.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1610.

Reply With Quote
  #1156  
Old 23-11-2020, 07:21
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR is strengthening

Current trend

EUR is climbing again against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a slight decline last Friday, which was triggered by the emergence of corrective sentiment in the market. USD positions remain under pressure, as the fundamental picture has changed slightly recently. Investors are concerned about the deteriorating epidemiological situation in the USA, which may eventually lead to additional budget spending and new restrictive measures, which have been diligently avoided by Donald Trump's administration.

However, investors pin their main hopes on the development of a vaccine against coronavirus. Unverified information appears in the media that vaccination of Americans may begin as early as December. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity in the euro area (Germany and France separately) for November. The indices in the manufacturing and services sector are expected to decline, which will be the projected response to restrictive measures in many EU countries.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is actively narrowing, pointing at the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from the level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating fragile balance of power in the ultra-short term.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.1892, 1.1918, 1.1964, 1.2000.
Support levels: 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1763.


Reply With Quote
  #1157  
Old 24-11-2020, 06:28
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD

The pair is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) develops, within which a downward correction ended as the wave iv of 1. Now, the fifth wave v of 1 is developing, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2060–1.2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1724.


Reply With Quote
  #1158  
Old 25-11-2020, 07:30
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: GBP updates local highs

Current trend

GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD at today's morning session, consolidating near 1.3350 and local highs since September 2, updated at the beginning of this week. GBP is supported by further weakening of USD against the backdrop of rather optimistic news from the US. Investors are reacting to the long-awaited start of the transfer of power from Donald Trump's administration, which is likely to prevent further aggravation of the political situation in the country. The markets were also encouraged by the reports of the possible appointment of the former Fed Chair Janet Yellen to the post of US Treasury Secretary. Yellen is expected to sharply increase fiscal spending to help lift the US economy out of the crisis caused by the epidemic.

Further growth of GBP is limited by the approaching Brexit deadlines. The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, warned the markets, saying that the country's exit from the EU without a deal could be "worse than COVID-19".

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding from above, having difficulty keeping pace with the development of the "bullish" trend in recent days. MACD indicator is growing preserving an unsteady buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, approaching the level of "80", reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to risks associated with overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3481, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3311, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3125.


Reply With Quote
  #1159  
Old 26-11-2020, 06:51
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

EUR/USD: EUR updates September highs

Current trend

EUR shows a slight increase against USD today, trading near local highs of early September, updated the day before. EUR is still supported by fairly optimistic market sentiments related to the start of the transfer of power in the USA, as well as the expectation of the imminent start of the coronavirus vaccination campaign. Also yesterday, the market received interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US.

USD was under pressure from the data on the number of Initial Jobless Claims. For the week ending November 20, Initial Jobless Claims again increased from 748K to 778K, while analysts expected it to decrease to 730K. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending November 13 decreased from 6.37M to 6.071M, which turned out to be slightly worse than the market forecasts of a decrease to 6.02M.

Today, European investors are focused on the speeches by the ECB representatives, Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel. Also during the day, the European regulator is to publish the minutes of its last meeting on monetary policy.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the development of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD indicator is growing preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains upward direction but is located near its highs, which indicates the overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1930, 1.1964, 1.2000, 1.2030.
Support levels: 1.1892, 1.1850, 1.1800, 1.1763.


Reply With Quote
  #1160  
Old 27-11-2020, 06:56
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 795
Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

GBP/USD: wave analysis

The pair may grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 5 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is developing, within which the wave (v) of iii is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3490–1.3700. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3267.


Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Best News Analysis Platform fxindicator News trading 5 13-03-2019 14:58
Forex Analysis by LiteForex LiteFXnews Forex Analysis 0 12-11-2015 08:38
Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. HFblogNews Forex Analysis 0 05-06-2015 10:47
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis farid News trading 341 27-01-2014 16:44


All times are GMT. The time now is 04:25.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.