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  #161  
Old 31-10-2013, 15:19
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USD/CHF a fade or hold, wait and see?






FXstreet.com (London)
- USD/CHF is a benefactor of the long dollar trade from yesterday and month end could be a supporting factor also. The pair is much higher and has broken key levels.

USD/CHF has breached 0.9020 and 0.9050 marking a high of 0.9067 and RSI is now above 70, signifying the momentum has slowed down ahead of the weekend and a new month next week. Derek Halpenny at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said FOMC caution helped to lift the dollar as the FOMC chose to be cautious in its statement after its meeting yesterday with the content avoiding any signal of a downgrade to the outlook for the economy. “Indeed, one would have to conclude that the FOMC is more upbeat having removed the segment on tightening financial market conditions potentially slowing the economy and jobs market going forward. So, essentially, the FOMC is telling us that the easing in financial market conditions (lower yields) is far more important for the outlook of the economy than the 16-day government shutdown and the debt-ceiling brinkmanship. That makes a lot of sense from the perspective that the FOMC always prefers to attach economic fundamental reasons to its decision-making rather than developments in Congress”.

USD/CHF Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9027, the 50 DMA is 0.9143 and the 200 DMA is 0.9321. RSI (14) reads 70.39. Supports are ascending from 0.8971, 0.8987, 0.9011, 0.9024 and 0.9050. Spot is currently 0.9054 while resistances are 0.9064 and 0.9098.


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  #162  
Old 31-10-2013, 15:29
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EUR/JPY down 1.2% on days trading





FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
- Having posted an early Tokyo high at 135.39, EUR/JPY has tumbled today over 1.2%, to post a low at 1.33.66, where spot is currently trading.

EUR/JPY technical strength

Looking to the FXstreet.com propriatary Indicators, the OB/OS Index and the Trend Index, we can see that the pair is looking oversold and slightly bearish respectively. Hourly RSI is at 17 and the ADX is at 43. The 200-period SMA is right now at 134.5697 and flat. The exponential average closing price for the last 20 days is 133.8873 and is trending sideways.

How volatile has the EUR/JPY been?

2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is 184 pips and expanding in the hourly chart, while the ATR(14) prints 14 pips. The average movement for this session has been of 11 pips per hour in the last 4 weeks.

What are todays key levels?

The central pivot point is located at 135.1893. Pivot supports for this pair are to be found at 134.9037 (S1), 134.4808 (S2) and 134.1952 (S3). Conversely, daily pivot resistances for this pair are to be found at 135.6122 (R1), 135.8978 (R2) and 136.3207 (R3). Special attention should be paid to the price range 134.22-134.56 where several technical levels are confluent today.

Key Events

EUR/USD extends losses on strong Chicago PMI

Session Recap: USD holds gains, EUR weighed by data

EU October Consumer Price Index (YoY) up 0.7%; Core CPI rises 0.8%

EMU: Unemployment Rate unchanged at 12.2% in September, against forecasts


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  #163  
Old 31-10-2013, 16:58
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GBP/USD building within a channel




FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD is climbing despite a stronger dollar and building a wider ascending channel from the lows of 1.6005 and has reached a high of 1.6070.

UK housing data continues to surprise on the upside, rising 1.0% m/m in October (vs. expected 0.7%) according to Nationwide. Meanwhile, the pound might look forward to a weaker dollar as markets digest the implications following the FOMC yesterday. Research teams at BBH explained that despite the knee-jerk positive reaction, the FOMC decision to keep policy steady yesterday should eventually bring back into focus the major negative factor for the dollar. “For now however, the dollar has strengthened, yields went lower, and equities pared some of their gains following the decision. Perhaps the FOMC disappointed those expecting a more dovish tone to the statement”.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6081, the 50 DMA is 1.5924 and the 200 DMA is 1.5484. RSI (14) reads 43.51. Supports are ascending from 1.5869, 1.5894, 1.5940, 1.5980 and 1.6019. Spot is currently 1.6047 while resistances are 1.6079, 1.6110, 1.6124 and 1.6150.


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  #164  
Old 01-11-2013, 12:56
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Flash: EUR could remain weak in run up to ECB presser - BMO Capital Markets




FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets feels that the EUR should remain on the ‘feeble’ side in the run-up to the ECB press conference towards the end of next week, but the EUR weakness now poses a complex problem for the central bank.

Key Quotes

"The difficulty facing the ECB is to get the EUR devaluation to persist or extend beyond next week’s rate decision. Additional liquidity support is a EUR negative, but to the extent that it triggers more capital inflows or non-existent re-pricing of credit spreads, it can also be a EUR positive too."

"Additionally, some participants may still be nestled deep within Euro Area credit markets on expectations that the AQR will be rather smooth and painless."

"Aggressive ECB action now might force investors to remain of that view, but we’d be on the other side of that trade on a 3-6-month outlook."

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  #165  
Old 01-11-2013, 13:11
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Flash: AUD/USD may get a further support from China PMI – OCBC




FXstreet.com (Athens) – Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank mentions that early this morning, the AiG manufacturing index improved to 53.2 in Oct 13 from 51.7 the previous month and the pair may get a further layer of support from the better than expected China manufacturing PMI.

Key Quotes

“We however would refrain from chasing the AUD/USD higher at this juncture and any failure to re-take 0.9500 continues to risk a relapse back towards 0.9400/20.”

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  #166  
Old 01-11-2013, 13:17
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AUD/USD clings to gains




FXstreet.com (Córdoba)
- The AUD/USD failed to extend its recovery attempt above 0.9500 and was confined to a phase of consolidation Friday.

The AUD/USD is attempting to recover some ground after a 7-day losing streak, although the Aussie lacks real strength and moves are mainly corrective. The AUD/USD climbed to a high of 0.9489 only to find resistance and pull back to currently trade around 0.9470, still 0.2% above its opening price.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks decisively above the 0.9490/0.9500 zone, next resistances could be found at 0.9525 (Oct 31 high) and 0.9575 (Oct 29 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9440 (Nov 1 & Oct 30 low) and 0.9400 (psychological level).


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  #167  
Old 03-11-2013, 15:52
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China Non-manufacturing PMI improves to 56.3 in October from 55.4





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  #168  
Old 04-11-2013, 13:07
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Flash: GBP/USD lower on US data and profit taking - Investec





FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
- Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec notes that GBP/USD also moved lower on Friday last week after upside surprises to US data and a general profit taking.

Key Quotes

“We saw GBP/USD race lower through the ever important physiological level 1.6000, as the first batch of October US data (from during the shutdown period) and strong manufacturing sector data showed the US economy was in better shape than many had expected.”


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  #169  
Old 04-11-2013, 13:14
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USD/CAD downwards; struggles to remain above the 1.0400 handle




FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/CAD is heading south the past hour, continuing the bearish tone that has picked up since the past Thursday.

The USD/CAD is under heavy pressure the last hour – without any real fundamental trigger – as the immense drop on Thursday seems to continue to weigh on. Ahead of, we will witness a crucial week for both currencies, as apart from the major US news (ISM,NFP), there is a hefty of Canadian news. Briefly, regarding Canada, on Friday we will have the release of October employment where the market in looking for a flat print as well as the October housing starts. What’s more, the Ivey PMI is due on Wednesday.

Technical Aspects on the USD/CAD

As above depicted, the solid Thursday’s drop still continues to set up a bearish tone. However, the cross might clearly break the 1.0360-1.0367 area where a confluence of major supports are laying (30-daily MA at 1.0361, 24th October low as of 1.0366) in order to say that it is in a downtrend reversal mode. Marc Chandler, Global Head Strategist of Currency Market Team, suggests that “….Yet the Canadian dollar is not very inspiring. It has been in a broad range for several months. Look for narrow CAD1.0350-CAD1.0450 range to dominate until toward the end of the week. Both countries report Oct employment data on Nov 8.”


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  #170  
Old 04-11-2013, 13:22
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GBP/USD at daily highs ahead of the NY open




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD is taking a breather Monday, recovering some ground after recent drop found support ahead of 1.5900.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.5902 during the Asian session but managed hold above mid-October lows and bounced, supported by upbeat UK construction PMI. GBP/USD climbed nearly 70 pips from lows and reached a high of 1.5971 before losing momentum and settling in a slim range.

GBP/USD technical levels

At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5965 area, recording a 0.3% gain on the day with immediate resistances lining up at 1.5971 (daily high), 1.6000 (psychological level) and 1.6017 (100-hour SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.5902/00 (daily low/psychological level) and 1.5893 (Oct 16 low).


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  #171  
Old 04-11-2013, 17:22
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USD/CAD dips are another chance to get long?




FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD’s short-term charts are flashing some mixed signals so far today.

Research teams at TD Securities explain that in the negative column, the loss of support in the 1.0420 zone confers a softer look to short-term price action. “Additionally, short-term trend momentum signals are bearish but not especially strong at present. On the positive side, USD losses so far have been limited and the market may simply be consolidating last week’s pop to the high 1.04s (bull wedge or bull flag signal potentially unfolding)”. They said that they can’t rule out a little more weakness here near-term to retrace some of last week’s rally but they rather think that losses will remain contained to the mid/upper 1.03 area for the moment. “The daily trend oscillators are still bullish for USD/CAD and in contrast to the negative signal on the short-term chart noted above. They explained that the medium-term trend in USD/CAD remains higher, as does the shorter-term (daily) trend so they rather think near-term weakness is likely to remain limited and that dips will offer USD buyers another chance to get long.

USD/CAD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.0377, the 50 DMA is 1.0376 and the 200 DMA is 1.0282. RSI (14) reads 43.52. Supports are ascending from 1.0340, 1.0366 and 1.0384. spot is 1.0411 while resistances are 1.0419, 1.0454, 1.0464, 1.0497 and 1.0505.



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  #172  
Old 04-11-2013, 17:35
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AUD/USD remains just within the 0.9500 handle




FXstreet.com (London) - >="">AUD/USD has held form in the US session with the pair above 0.9500 and up 0.74% at 0.9505, off from the lows in 0.9439 and marking a high of 0.9516.

Research teams at TD Securities noted that Retail sales rose +0.8%/mth, doubling mkt expectations and volumes jumped +0.7%/qtr, a strong start to Q3 GDP. This report will be welcomed by the RBA as a fresh source of “non-mining” growth, complementing the acceleration in building approvals (+6%/qtr in Q2 and +8%/qtr in Q3), signaling that a housing construction cycle is also underway”. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged even while all the economic data signals a recovery and the RBA’s increased vigilance as regards rising house prices and high private household debt points towards an end of rate cuts. However, in order to help prevent the increasing appreciation pressure on the AUD, the rong>RBA may wish to keep a low profile regarding the rate outlook.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9535, the 50 DMA is 0.9364 and the 200 DM is 0.9714. RSI (14) reads 35.12. Supports are ascending from 0.9334, 0.9389, 0.9410, 0.9430 and 0.9480. Spot is 0.9508 while resistances are coming in at 0.9530, 0.9556, 0.9585 and 0.9624.



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  #173  
Old 05-11-2013, 14:16
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GBP/USD looking for a close in the 1.6000’s




FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has had a bounce from 1.5860/90 support and is up 0.41% at 1.6041.

GBP/USD would be looking for a close above 1.5980 for a broader move in the 1.6050/75 area while on the data, services PMI were in line with consensus. The NIESR report suggests the BOE may not wait for 7% unemployment before hiking and this too has had some impact. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) are coming up from the US a little later on while the market anticipates BoE Thursday and NFP’s at the end of the week. Key supports remain in the September break up points, 1.5935 1.5894 and 1.5844.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6064, the 50 DMA is 1.5948 and the 200 DM is 1.5487. RSI (14) reads 77.46. Supports are ascending from 1.5829, 1.5844, 1.5869, 1.5894, 1.5935, 1.5977, 1.5999 and 1.6015. Spot is currently 1.6041 and resistances are 1.6046 and 1.6079.



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  #174  
Old 05-11-2013, 14:24
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[color=#0000FF]
欧洲央行康斯坦西奥:欧洲银行业有在不加剧“大而不倒”问题的同时进行一些整固的空间[/color]




Forex21.cn—欧洲央行康斯坦西奥:欧洲银行业有在不加剧“大而不倒”问题的同时进行一些整固的空间。

** Forex21.cn 新闻编辑部,FXstreet.com **


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  #175  
Old 05-11-2013, 14:31
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Flash: AUD is uncomfortably high – Rabobank




FXstreet.com (London) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank said that the RBA Governor Stevens was again successful in talking down the AUD overnight.

Key Quote:

“Although the decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold was expected by the market, the comment that the AUD was “uncomfortably high” succeeded in undermining the currency”.

“On balance we expect that while hopes that the Fed will delay tapering could support AUD/USD on a 3 month view that the AUD will be vulnerable into 2014”.

“On a 12 month view we see risk that AUD/USD could revisit this year’s low in the 0.88 region”.


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  #176  
Old 05-11-2013, 14:45
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Flash: The ECB doing homework, EUR/USD to weaken through trendline? – Societe Generale




FXstreet.com (London) - Sebastien Galy, analyst at Societe Generale said that the ECB published a paper on the feasibility of counter cyclical buffers this morning, ahead of the ECB meeting. In the business of signalling, this is stating we are doing our homework.

Key Quotes:

“Parts of core Europe housing market will eventually need these counter cyclical buffer and it might be the price to pay to agree to a rat cut, one would presume. A few months ago, officials were crystal clear that they had done their home work extensively on the implication of a rate cut on financial instruments, the financial system and the linkage between rates and other financial assets. Our economists expect a rate cut in Dec which seems to be where consensus is heading”.

“Has the FX market already priced this in? In good part, but the temptation to break below the EURUSD upward trending channel will probably be too strong. A rate cut will encourage more flows into the Euro periphery likely leading to a stabilization of eurusd in a wide range”.

“UK data continues to be very solid helping EURGBP to gap down towards the 0.84 support. While a consolidation is now likely the market is likely to trend lower after this period on a continued divergence between the UK and EU business cycle”.


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  #177  
Old 05-11-2013, 14:55
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USD/CAD slightly lower due to the US dismal consumer spending report




FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/CAD grinds slightly lower after the US Redbook weekly sales released at dismal levels.

The USD/CAD was hovering around 1.0453 area, before the release of the US consumer spending report, which revealed a second weekly soft US consumer spending report regarding for the US economy. Thus, it could be well taken for granted that the Fed will remain on hold since the continuing soft data does not leave the US Central Bank much option. Briefly, the cross lost a slight ground as of 20 pips (1.0424), but the past couple of minutes managed to pare the largest portion of its losses, hovering around 1.0440 area.

Technical Aspects on the USD/CAD

It is noteworthy to mention that a decent daily break of the support of 1.0422 (23.6% Fib ret.) could expose the pair further downwards to the area as of 1.0376 (38.2% Fib). Greg Moore on behalf of TD Securities mentions that “USD/CAD tested the 1.04 level yesterday but there was no real appetite to push the USD significantly lower and that might well be the extent of the USD dip for the moment. In the context of relatively subdued ranges elsewhere, the USD/CAD rebound looked quite impressive to us and we think the market has done enough to signal a firmer short-term base at 1.0400/20 now.”


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  #178  
Old 05-11-2013, 15:06
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[size=3]
澳储行陷入两难[/color]




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  #179  
Old 06-11-2013, 14:22
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Canada September Building Permits (MoM) improves to 1.7%




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  #180  
Old 06-11-2013, 14:35
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EUR/CAD shows little attention to Canadian data





FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/CAD did not pay much attention on the worse Canadian data ahead of the crucial ECB conference.

The EUR/CAD might be mostly focused on what Draghi will say tomorrow; thus, the cross was muted on worse than expected Canadian building permits. Canadian building permits rebounded slower than expected in September, up 0.2% from the previous September as of 2012.

Technical Aspects on the EUR/CAD

Stephen Gallo on behalf of BMO FX Strategy suggests that “…EUR/CAD has once again bounced off the strong support around 1.4050/1.4060… A break back through 1.4125 should induce further demand. We are still of the view that CAD will gradually weaken in to the end of this year..”



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  #181  
Old 06-11-2013, 15:01
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EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3530





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The advance of the euro against the dollar propelled by Germany factory orders data stalled at the 1.3530 zone, confining EUR/USD to a phase of consolidation over the last hours.

EUR/USD finds resistance at 1.3530

Even though the EUR/USD managed to print a fresh weekly high of 1.3531 Wednesday, it remains within familiar ranges as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the European Central Bank decision tomorrow and the US NFP Friday. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3505 area, recording a 0.2% gain on the day.

What if ECB doesn't deliver?

Regarding the ECB decision, the BBH analyst team commented that the "EUR/USD has so far been unable to break below $1.3450 this week, and if the ECB doesn't deliver a cut as some expect, the pair could see a bit of a bounce to end the week".

EUR/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.3531 (daily high) and 1.3589 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.3600 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3466 (daily low) and 1.3442 (Nov 4 low).



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  #182  
Old 06-11-2013, 15:17
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EUR/USD jumps to 1.3545 as ECB wouldn't cut rates tomorrow





FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Euro got a push from news in the last minutes as rumors ECB officials sources say a rate cut not likely tomorrow event amid inflation dip.

Against the US Dollar, the Euro has jumped around 45 pips in the latest few minutes from 1.3500 to break above the 1.3530 area and price at 1.3545. Currently the EUR/USD is moving at 1.3540, 0.50% positive on the day.

EUR/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, the EUR/USD could find immediate resistances at 1.3565 and 1.3590 (Nov 1 high) followed by 1.3635. On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3466 (daily low) and 1.3442 (Nov 4 low).




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  #183  
Old 07-11-2013, 13:20
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EUR/GBP slightly higher after BoE





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - As expected the BoE decision didn't take market by surprise having little impact on the pound, which only weakened slightly in the wake of the statement.

The BoE decided to maintain its key lending rate at 0.5% and the QE amount at £375 billion. The EUR/GBP advanced a few pips and retested daily highs at 0.8411 from 0.8402 pre-BoE, but momentum was lacking as it remains to be seen what the European Central Bank has to say. At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at the 0.8410 area, 0.1% above its opening price.

EUR/GBP technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if EUR/GBP breaks above 0.8410, next resistances are seen at 0.8415 (Nov 6 high) and 0.8463 (Nov 5 high), while below 0.8400 supports could be found at 0.8377 (Nov 6 low) and 0.8365 (Oct 3 low).




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  #184  
Old 07-11-2013, 13:40
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US 3Q Gross Domestic Product Annualized increase to 2.8% vs 2.5% (2Q)





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  #185  
Old 07-11-2013, 15:15
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ECB's Draghi: Rate cut in line with forward guidance





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The ECB Governing Council decided to cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% at their November monetary policy meeting. During the subsequent press conference the ECB head Mario Draghi stated that the move was in line with the central bank´s forward guidance policy.

The president raised worries about deflation risks in the Eurozone, saying that inflation in the area could remain low for a prolonged period of time, before gradually returning to the ECB´s target level of 2%. Therefore, the monetary policy stance will be kept accommodative for as long as necessary.

Mario Draghi also hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts by indicating that Eurozone borrowing costs would remain at low levels until an improvement in economic conditions is noted. He declared that the ECB would continue conducting the 3-month LTROs at least until Q2 2015, as well as MROs, as fixed rate tender procedures, at least until July 2015. Furthermore, he said that the central bank has a wide range of instruments at its disposal, which could be activated whenever needed.

The ECB head acknowledged the end of the 18-month recession in the Eurozone, emphasizing however that growth remains weak. He quoted the continuing uncertainty on financial markets as one of the main threats, along with “higher commodity prices, weaker than expected domestic demand and export growth, and slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries.”




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  #186  
Old 07-11-2013, 15:31
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EUR/USd Euro remains under pressure following ECB rate cut





FXstreet.com (London) - The euro remains under pressure after the European Central Bank went wrong-footed recent expectations and cut its main refinancing rate to a record-low 0.25 percent. The move came as part of an effort to stymie deflationary pressure within the Eurozone.

EUR/USD bounced off resistance at USD1.3300 after its biggest fall in two years. It rebounded to USD1.3377, undoing a fraction of the rapid losses, but has once again come under selling pressure. The pair is now trading at USD1.3364, down 1.1 percent on the day.

The ECB stepped in to try and ease European credit conditions after weak macro data indicated a stalling of and recovery within the area. Last week inflation numbers for September missed expectations, printing at 0.7 percent year-on-year, undershooting expectations of a 1.1 percent rise in prices. Eurostat also upward revised previous unemployment statistics from 12.0 to 12.2, undoing any optimism that the European labour market was strengthening.
While the ECB does not have the option at its disposal of aggressive quantitative easing programmes as have been pursued by the Fed and the Bank of England, it does have the LTRO option which it may now exercise.

On cutting the refi rate, ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank was not targeting exchange rates. But while a 25bps drop will do little to directly ease deflationary pressures, the statement echoes many of Bank of Japan president Haruhiko Kuroda’s words as the BoJ steps up asset purchases that knock unwanted strength out of the yen.




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  #187  
Old 08-11-2013, 13:42
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EUR/GBP reverts back to pre-UK data levels





FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/GBP pared back almost all of its earlier gains on dismal UK data, indicating that the movement was nothing else, but a short-squeeze.

The EUR/GBP is getting slightly back to its prior levels around 0.8345 area. Elaborating on, the EUR/GBP spiked higher near 0.8360 area, as soon as the UK trade deficit rose more than estimated during September, climbing to £9.816 billion vs. £9.557 billion (revised) from the previous month. At the time of writing the cross has already pared back all of its gains, hovering again at its prior levels (before the UK budget release) at 0.8346. Thus, the uptrend movement of roughly 15 pips on the weak UK news, was in plain English short positions squeezed following UK data.

Technical Perspectives on the EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP might need to overcome the obstacle of 0.8379 (hourly low of 6th of November) to be closer to 0.8428 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend movement of 0.8585-0.8379). On the downwards side, a crucial support also in psychological terms resides at the area of 0.8300 (daily low of 17th January, 7th November), which if breached could bring the cross under further pressure, near the 0.8285 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of the upwards movement of 0.7756-0.8815).




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  #188  
Old 08-11-2013, 13:51
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Euro rebounds from downgrade-induced lowd





FXstreet.com (London) - The euro dipped to a low of USD1.3389 following the S&P announcement of French ratings cut, but has followed form with a post-ratings cut bounce to USD1.3427, up 0.08 percent.

The announcement followed downwards momentum for the euro after the European Central Bank wrong footed many by announcing a 25 basis point cut of the main refinancing rate to a record low 0.5 percent.

The decision by the ECB drove the euro down (perhaps intentionally), though Mario Draghi liberally borrowed from Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s Guide to Central Bank Rate Announcements by declaring that the ECB was not targeting currency levels.

The decision by Standard and Poor’s to downgrade French debt for the second time in two years, this time from AA+ to AA is against a backdrop of weak economic activity and high unemployment.

"The downgrade reflects our view that the French government's current approach to budgetary and structural reforms to taxation, as well as to product, services, and labor markets, is unlikely to substantially raise France's medium-term growth prospects," said S&P in a statement accompanying the downgrade.

On top of weak industrial activity, unemployment in France reached a new record high of 3.3m in October, with the unemployment rate at 11 percent.

The decision by S&P angered French leaders, with French finance minister Pierre Moscovici claiming that S&P underestimates French recovery potential. He added that “France is on the way to solid, credible recovery.” Which will come as a surprise to the 26 percent of French youths unemployed or those within a manufacturing sector that has declined for 20 straight months.



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  #189  
Old 08-11-2013, 14:01
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US Dollar Index sidelined around 80.90





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against its major competitors, is posting meagre gains on Friday, ahead of October’s Payrolls.

DXY firmer on better US data, ECB

The index is extending its weekly gains for the second consecutive time so far, boosted by decent US data throughput the week and by the ECB’s decision to take the EMU’s lending benchmark to a record low at 0.25%. Ahead in the day, the crucial Non-farm Payrolls are due, with consensus pointing to 125K, lower than September’s 148K. In light of the positive data from the US GDP during the third quarter, Analyst James Knightley at ING assessed “at the margin this may help keep faint hopes of a December start to the Fed taper alive, but with the political backdrop remaining troubling we still doubt it will happen before the end of 1Q14. Indeed, we are not confident that a budget deal will be agreed in December and are therefore worried about another government shutdown in January“.

DXY levels to watch

The index is now up 0.05% at 80.86 with the initial resistance at 80.75 (high oct.16) followed by 81.02 (high Nov.4) and then 81.50 (high Sep.16). On the downside, a breach of 79.13 (low Oct.23) would aim for 78.93 (low Feb.1) and finally 78.60 (Sep.14 2012).



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  #190  
Old 11-11-2013, 12:16
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EUR/USD rises above 1.3400





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD gathered strength during the European session and managed to advance toward 1.3400 after dipping to near 1.3300 Friday.

EUR/USD picks up pace

The EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.3316 Friday after the US NFP came in stronger than expected but managed to hold above the post GDP low. Following a mild bounce and a phase of consolidation, the EUR/USD picked up pace and rose to above 1.3400 Monday, printing a high of 1.3404 before easing slightly.

However, in the absence of economic data and amid the US Veterans Day holiday, the EUR/USD might have a hard time trying to find inspiration. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3400, recording a 0.3% gain on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, if EUR/USD managed to decisively break above 1.3400, next resistances line up at 1.3436 (Nov 8 high) and 1.3448 (100-hour SMA) ahead of 1.3500 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3345 (daily low), 1.3316 (Nov 8 low) and 1.3295 (Nov 7 low).



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  #191  
Old 11-11-2013, 12:25
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EUR/JPY struggles with 50-EMA (132.77) as euro hobbles





FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY has been trading to the upper level since the kick off of the European trading session, but still can’t help itself to trend higher near 133.00 handle.

The EUR/JPY is trading amidst a tight range during the European trading hours, but in a slightly upwards trendshift. The EUR/JPY trends amidst the Friday’s high as of 132.49 and the 50-daily EMA (132.77), while earlier spiked higher to the daily high as of 132.87. The cross anemic movement might be well justified by market participants as the single currency is hobbling post the ECB, NFP era. What’s more, today is a day really absent of any schedule data or event risk due to the US partial holiday and the banking holidays in most Euro zone countries. Last but not least, ECB’s Coeure mentioned the past weekend that “The ECB is still holding out the possibility for further easing if needed.”

Technical Aspects on the EUR/JPY

In order for the cross to move higher to the 133.53 (7th November high) and to 133.72 (6th November high) respectively, it should first overcome the barrier of the 133.00 which mostly serves as a psychological level. It is also probable that the cross might move in a sideways movement amidst the area of 132.22 (11th November session low) to the 50-EMA (132.77). Downwards, the initial support can be found at 131.47 (38.2% Fib retracement), while is that is breached the cross might move towards the area as of 130.22 (50% Fib).




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Old 11-11-2013, 12:33
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AUD/USD nears Friday's lows





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD fell to fresh daily lows during the European session as the greenback continues to build last week's gains.

Data fails to support AUD/USD

Despite strong Chinese industrial production data and Australian home loans figures, the AUD/USD came under pressure Monday and slid to a low of 0.9355 before finding support, just a few pips above Friday's trough of 0.9351. The AUD/USD is currently trading at the 0.9360 zone, recording a 0.3% loss on the day, having fallen 0.8% on Friday, with a quiet session ahead as US celebrates the Veterans Day.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if the AUD/USD breaks below 0.9350, next supports are seen at 0.9333 (Oct 2 low) and 0.9300 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9390 (daily high) and 0.9420 (Nov 1 low).



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  #193  
Old 11-11-2013, 12:43
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EUR/USD clings to the 1.3400 area





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -It seems the upside of the shared currency is taking a breather on Monday, with the EUR/USD now easing some ground from levels just above 1.3400 the figure.

EUR/USD follows the risk-on sentiment

The pair have started the trading week on the right footing so far, recovering from last week’s sharp sell-off post-ECB and October’s Payrolls, amidst a downbeat tone surrounding the greenback. Ahead in the week, the advanced measure of EMU’s GDP during the third quarter is due, and according to S.Gallo and G.Anderson, Strategists at BMO, “we look for the Q3 release of GDP for the bloc to at most cap rallies in the EUR, particularly because most of the Q3 data have not pointed to a contraction for the quarter as a whole. The big surprise however would be a flat or negative reading, and we expect such a reading to weigh on Euro Area banks’ shares and the EUR together. However, the likelihood of a flat or negative reading appears somewhat low”.

EUR/USD key levels

As of writing the pair is now advancing 0.27% at 1.3396 with the next resistance at 1.3438 (high Nov.8) followed by 1.3523 (MA10d) and finally 1.3529 (high Nov.7). On the flip side, a break below 1.3345 (low Nov.11) would open the door to 1.3318 (low Nov.8) and then 1.3295 (low 7 Nov.).



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  #194  
Old 12-11-2013, 12:02
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Crude oil lower as greenback soars across the board





FXstreet.com (Athens) – Oil prices in both sides of Atlantic ocean are grinding slowly lower on Tuesday, partly due to the greenback strengthening across the board.

Crude oil is trading south at $94.71/brl, down 0.38%, while Brent oil is also heading downwards at $106.42, down 0.07%. Yesterday, Brent crude oil prices raised more than $1 per barrel on Monday after Iran and six world powers fell short of reaching a deal on Tehran's nuclear program. Furthermore, U.S. crude settled 54 cents higher at $95.14 a barrel, after touching a high of $95.38. The contract breached the 10-day moving average of $95.26 in intraday trading for the first time in three weeks. Gold is also trading downwards today, mostly in consolidation mode, at $1281.63/ounce, down 0.13%. Market participants might attribute the decline in gold prices to their lowest levels in nearly a month to the constant signs of a steady Chinese economic growth which fuels worries about a looming monetary tightening in China. Yesterday, spot price of gold hit its lowest since Oct. 17 at $1,278.94 an ounce in early trade. Last but not least, U.S. Comex gold futures for December settled down $3.50 at $1,281.10 an ounce, with trading volume about 45 percent below its 250-day average.



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  #195  
Old 12-11-2013, 12:10
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EUR/USD regains 1.3400 and beyond





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After dipping to session lows around 1.3360, sudden buying interest is now lifting the EUR/USD to the area above 1.3400 the figure on Tuesday.

EUR/USD boosted by risk appetite

The greenback is losing some momentum today against the backdrop better risk-on tone, prompting buyers to return to the beleaguered euro. Market conditions in the very near term would allow for some consolidation pattern, as no major releases are expected in the euro area with the exception of the flash EMU GDP figures for the third quarter (0.2% QoQ exp.). Previous data in the bloc showed declining consumer prices in Germany and overall stagnant CPI readings from Italy, confirming the recent acceleration in the disinflationary trend amongst the bloc members.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.15% at 1.3393 and a break below 1.3345 (low Nov.11) would open the door to 1.3318 (low Nov.8) and then 1.3295 (low 7 Nov.). On the upside, the immediate resistance aligns at 1.3414 (high Nov.12) ahead of 1.3417 (high Nov.11) and finally 1.3438 (high Nov.8).



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Old 12-11-2013, 12:17
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EUR/JPY soars on Nikkei; 61.8% Fibonacci beckons?





FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY has been amidst an uptrend rally on Tuesday, partly due to the soaring Nikkei, as well as to positive outcome of the Third China’s Plenum.

The EUR/JPY is trending slightly south the last hour, but generally speaking has been trading to the upper level since the kick off of the early Asian trading session. Nikkei sharp gains (2.23% gains overnight with registered gains of 40.34% in the year up to date), alongside with the welcome results of the Third’s China Plenum assisted the cross to move higher. ECB’s Nowonty mentioned earlier that “There is no North-South division on the ECB governing council,” as well as “Stagnation, not inflation, is the real risk now.”

Technical Aspects on the EUR/JPY

The cross has managed to establish a bullish uptrend momentum, which started well after it made a decent close above the 132.05 level (50% Fibonacci retracement of the downwards movement of 2008 highs as of 169.97 to July’s 2012 lows of 94.12). The pairs has now regained a fairly enough uptrend momentum, threatening not only to touch the October highs (also 2013 highs) as of 135.32, but also to trend higher near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the major downwards movement at 141.00 area. The cross should breach the 2013 high of 135.52 clearly in order to say that it can move higher towards the 141.00 level, while below, the first solid initial support can be well found at 132.90, followed by the 132.48 level (Top Cloud of Ichimoku).



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AUD/USD ready to test 0.9300?





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar keeps losing ground on Tuesday, now dragging the AUD/USD to the 0.9310/00 region, levels last seen in early October.

AUD/USD correcting from October highs

The selling pressure around the pair re-emerged after being rejected from multi-month highs in the boundaries of 0.9770 during October, losing ground for four consecutive weeks so far amidst renewed concerns regarding China, the persistent easing cycle from the RBA and the recent USD strength. “The AUD-USD is also expected to remain similarly heavy with the latest US labor market numbers contrasting with the more dovish AUD undertones emanating from last Friday’s RBA Quarterly Monetary Statement. If the pair continues to remain submerged below its 55-day MA (0.9387), a drift towards 0.9268 and then 0.9200 going ahead cannot be discounted”, signalled Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.


AUD/USD key levels

The pair is now losing 0.43% at 0.9319 with the next support at 0.9298 (50% of 0.9280-0.9760) ahead of 0.9280 (low Sep.30) and then 0.9223 (low Sep.13). On the upside, a breakout of 0.9421 (low Nov.1) would open the door to 0.9430 (MA50d) and finally 0.9530 (high Sep.18)



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US Chicago Fed National Activity Index up to 0.14 in September from 0.13





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EU September Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) improves to 1.1% vs -1.1%





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US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.5%





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Mortgage Bankers Association has informed that US citizens that applied for mortgage loans fell 0.5% in the week ended on November 8, up from the previous drop of 0.7%.



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