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  #121  
Old 10-10-2013, 17:21
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Flash: staring at the debt ceiling, risk of a 2013 downgrade? – Rabobank



FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams look at the market implications around a possibility of Republicans and Democrats failing to reach an agreement in time.

Key Quotes:

“We look back at the debt ceiling events of 2011 to get an idea what kind of market reaction we can expect before and after the debt ceiling deadline of October 17.Interestingly, they suggest only modest safe have flows before the deadline, as the perceived risk of a default remains low”.

“The large declines in the 10y US treasury yield in 2011 occurred after the deal to raise the debt ceiling was made, first because of the perceived risk of a downgrade, then because S&P actually pulled the trigger".

“However, the budget deficit has fallen substantially this year and the fiscal projections have also improved. This makes a downgrade in 2013 less likely, so the market impact of this year’s debt ceiling deadline should be less violent, unless Republicans and Democrats fail to reach an agreement in time".






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  #122  
Old 11-10-2013, 18:16
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GBP/USD turns negative



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following another failed attempt at 1.6000 and weighed by disappointing UK construction, the GBP/USD retreated to the 1.5950 area, turning intraday negative during the New York session.

The GBP/USD found interim support at the 1.5970 zone, but as the greenback picked up strength, the Cable dropped to a fresh low of 1.5945 before finding support. GBP/USD has recovered slightly and it is currently trading around 1.5955, still 0.1% below its opening price.

GBP/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, if GBP/USD breaks below 1.5945, next supports are seen at 1.5915 (Oct 9 & 10 lows) and 1.5900 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.6000 (psychological level) and 1.6050 (20-day SMA).




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  #123  
Old 11-10-2013, 18:33
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USD/CHF consolidates 0.9120 winning front



FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF sustains gains for a 0.57% wining week back above the 0.91 zone amid a possible conflict resolution between democrats and republicans putting an end to the shutdown.

Shutdown continues

Yesterday, republicans agreed on short-term plan to increase the debt ceiling and gain time before it is too late for a US default. After a couple of hours of silence, president Obama said he would not approve the proposal leaving the country with uncertainty. Although Boehner worked overnight trying to negotiate, the shutdown continues despite rally triggered on hopeful spark that sent the equity markets to 9-month highs. On earlier data in the US, the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was 75.2 vs. expected 76 and past 77.5. Ahead of the Governor Board Member Danthine speech in Switzerland, the pair sustains gains above the 0.9120 zone.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

Technically speaking, the pair is offered at 0.9123 and oscillates between supports aligned at 0.9081 (October 4th highs), 0.9017 (October 9th lows) ahead of 0.8964 (October 4th lows) and the resistances set at 0.9139 (September 25th highs), 0.9176 (August 26th lows) followed by 0.9228 (September 14th lows). According




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  #124  
Old 11-10-2013, 19:41
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Hopes of a shutdown, debt-ceiling deal boost markets



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -US markets are extending the bullish momentum on Friday, advancing for the second consecutive session, as hopes of a deal to re-open the US Government shutdown and to rise the debt-ceiling are boosting the sentiment. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar index, is trimming weekly losses and hovering over 80.40/45. At the moment, DowJones is up 0.63% seconded by the S&P500, 0.55% and the Nasdaq, 0.55%.

Bourses across the pond also closed with gains following renewed hopes of a deal to unlock the US political stand-off. The FTSE100 led the winners, advancing 0.88% and followed by the DAX, 0.45% and the IBEX35, 0.08%. The shared currency is meandering around the middle of the weekly range in the proximities of 1.3540, closely following the developments in the US fiscal front.

In the commodities’ space, the ounce troy of the precious metal is plummeting more than 2% at $1,266 while barrel of WTI is following the same path,, down 1.42% at $101.55.




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  #125  
Old 16-10-2013, 14:19
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[color=#0000FF]

Flash: USD/JPY remains supported above 98.00 – OCBC[/color]




FXstreet.com (Athens) – Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank, suggests that the USD/JPY has remained supported above 98.00 in the past few sessions with the US fiscal concerns not managing to infect broader global markets and with investors still hopeful for a eleventh-hour deal.

“The situation could still swing both ways in the near term and the pair may remain anchored near its 55-day MA (98.32) within a 98.00-99.00 band pending further cues.”





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  #126  
Old 17-10-2013, 18:44
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[color=#0000FF]

Flash: GBP in the first mover disadvantage position? - UBS[/color]




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After the US debt deal, the expectation for the Fed to continue its monetary easing for longer moved EUR/USD on Thursday to its highest level for 9 months amid broad USD weakness. The UBS analyst team commented on divergent monetary policies and how they would affect currencies.

Key Quotes

"We would argue this EUR-strength is not liked at the ECB."

"On the other hand, Bank of England chief economist Dale talked about rates could rise in 2014 and thereby spurred the GBP rally".

"We continue to see GBP in the so called 'first mover disadvantage'– the disadvantage of strong currency appreciation for whoever is expected to tighten monetary policy first".





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  #127  
Old 21-10-2013, 15:42
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AUD/USD in wait and see mode at trend line resistance?



FXstreet.com (London)
- AUD/USD is attempting the 0.9680 resistances again at the top of the recent bull-run from last weeks 0.9460/80 range.

AUD/USD is rested higher at these levels within a range ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. Research teams at TD Securities said, “The delayed September report is out tomorrow and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains sidelined for the next few months”. Then, they suggested all eyes will be on the Q3 CPI report in Wednesday where they expect a deceleration in the key underlying measure from 2.4%/yr to 2.1%/yr (mkt 2.2%), or a quarterly average print of +0.5%/qtr. “Some estimates are rather lofty, so if we’re wrong, expect the AUD to explode to the topside from here”.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.9455, the 50 DMA is 0.9280 and the 200 DMA is 0.9757. RSI (14) reads 56.52. Supports are ascending from 0.9548, 0.9564, 0.9604, 0.9625 and 0.9649. Spot is currently 0.9671 while resistances are 0.9680, 0.9700, 0.9716 and 0.9765.





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  #128  
Old 21-10-2013, 15:57
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GBP/USD trims losses as USD lacks momentum





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD quickly trimmed intraday losses after falling a 4-day low of 1.6132 at the beginning of the New York session.

The greenback failed to sustain momentum, allowing the GBP/USD to recover some ground and cut losses. However, from a wider view, the Cable remains trapped in a range bounded by 1.6130 on the downside and 1.6180 on the upside as investors await the NFP report to be published Tuesday.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, if the GBP/USD breaks below 1.6130, it could fall to 1.6100 (psychological level) and even 1.6065 (100-hour SMA). On the other hand, resistances are now seen at 1.6180 (daily high), 1.6225 (Oct 18 high) and 1.6260 (Oct 1 high).





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  #129  
Old 21-10-2013, 16:10
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US sells $35B in 3-month bills at 0.035%





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  #130  
Old 21-10-2013, 16:20
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NZD/USD jittery ahead of NFP’s tomorrow



FXstreet.com (London) - NZD/USD is jittery ahead of tomorrows NFP’s. The pair opened lower with a gap on the charts and declined 40 pips before reverting on the bid to close the gap.

Research teams at TD Securities said the net permanent migration jumped by +2740 in Sep, where the monthly and annual increase are at decade highs. “The upside pressure on domestic demand is intensifying. Credit card spend in Sep was –0.1%/mth, entirely as expected as the upwardly revised Aug jump of +1.4%/yr”. Later today we will see NZ trade balance for Sep month on month. They continued and mentioned the delayed September NFP’s report is out tomorrow… “and we look for a 182k gain in payrolls (market +180k), from +169k in August…The USD will remain sensitive to the relative strength/weakness of the data, even though the Fed remains side-lined for the next few months”.

NZD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8331, the 50 DMA is 0.8132 and the 200 DMA is 0.8183. RSI (14) reads 47.08. Supports are ascending from 0.8398, 0.8416 and 0.8430. Spot is currently 0.8463 while resistances are 0.8506, 0.8529, 0.8558, 0.8587 and 0.8643.





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  #131  
Old 22-10-2013, 14:19
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US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improves to 1 in October from 0 (September)



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  #132  
Old 22-10-2013, 14:27
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US: Construction Spending rises 0.6% in August




FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
- US Construction Spending grew 0.6% in August, down from the 1.4% increase registered the previous month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau. This result is above consensus of +0.4%.





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  #133  
Old 22-10-2013, 14:33
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US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rises in October against forecasts



FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index grew to 1 point in October after remaining flat in September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected the indicator to stay unchanged for another month.




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  #134  
Old 22-10-2013, 14:43
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Flash: New Year dollars – JP Morgan







FXstreet.com (London)
- Research teams at JP Morgan said this month’s Washington wars raise understandable questions about enduring damage to the dollar as a reserve currency, since the political process creates non-zero default risk in an asset which should be default-free. However, they said the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural.

Key Quotes:


“…the damage to the dollar therefore looks more cyclical than structural in that is suppresses US rates for longer”.

“But with the US economy unlikely to slow much or for long, US rates should move towards 2.7% by year-end, which in turn limits USD downside into the new year”.

“We doubt the December 2013/January 2014 debates will be as tense as the October one, and the debt ceiling issue has been deferred effectively until July 2014 due to Treasury’s use of extraordinary measures”.

“Thus round five of the budget disputes under a divided Congress (the first three were the April 2011 near-shutdown, August 2011 debt ceiling and December 2012 fiscal cliff) could prove even less impactful on global markets than the fourth round in this October”.




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  #135  
Old 23-10-2013, 15:26
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US Export Price Index (MoM) up to 0.3% in September; -1.6% (YoY)






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  #136  
Old 23-10-2013, 15:36
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USD/CAD soars after BoC statement






FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Loonie weakened broadly and USD/CAD soared to a fresh 1-week high after the BoC monetary policy decision.

BoC drops hawkish bias

Even though the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rate unchanged at 1.0% it dropped reference to higher rates as it trimmed GDP projections for 2013 and 2014. USD/CAD jumped after the statement and climbed to a fresh 1-week high of 1.0379 before easing slightly.

USD/CAD technical levels


The USD/CAD is currently trading at the 1.0365 area, recording a 0.4% gain on Wednesday ahead of the BoC news conference scheduled for 16:30GMT. As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.0379 (daily high), and 1.0400 (psychological level), while supports could be found at 1.0282 (daily low) and 1.0265 (200-day SMA).





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  #137  
Old 23-10-2013, 15:43
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RBA unlikely to cut – Rabobank






FXstreet.com (London) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted that overnight brought news of a stronger than expected rise in Australian CPI (0.7% q/q).

Key Quotes:

“This data release has strengthened our belief that the RBA are unlikely to cut rates again this cycle but this view was formed because of signs of pick up in other parts of the Australian economy, including the housing market”.

While the RBA, like most G10 central banks, is mandated to keep CPI in check, the Bank in recent years has been forced to keep one eye on house prices and the associated outlook for household debt”.

“High levels of household debt means that the economy is more vulnerable to a hard landing when recessionary risks arise”.

“While the end of the mining investment boom in Australian impacted household’s desire to take on more debt, house prices have recently been again showing signs of life and this is likely to be a key factor in staying the hand of the RBA going forward”.





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  #138  
Old 23-10-2013, 15:53
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Flash: The commentary in the October Minutes on the real economy conveyed a more upbeat tone – RBS






FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at RBS noted the BoE minutes and said the MPC voted unanimously, for a fourth successive month, to maintain monetary policy settings – “as expected”.

Key Quotes:

“…The MPC continues to eye the business surveys with some caution [the PMIs have tended to over-estimate the official GDP data by almost a full percentage point in annualised growth terms over the past couple of years] but noted the signs of revival in the housing market which were 'likely to provide a fillip to both dwellings investment and consumer spending'”.

“As the Minutes implied, this might not be wholly consistent with the desire for a 'rebalancing' of demand, but there seems to be less high-minded rhetoric about this these days, either from Threadneedle St or Westminster”.





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  #139  
Old 24-10-2013, 13:39
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AUD/USD breaks below 0.9600






FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD slipped to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session after data showed US jobless claims fell less than anticipated last week, while August trade deficit widened in August.

US initial jobless claims fell to 350K in the week ending Oct 19 versus 380K expected. The AUD/USD broke below the 0.9600/05 support area and stretched to a 1-week low of 0.9585 so far. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9595 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day.

Aussie weighed by China woes

The Aussie remains under pressure Thursday despite stronger-than-expected Chinese HSBC PMI amid concerns about reports of a large write-off of bad loans at major Chinese banks and a spike in short-term rates.

AUD/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, next supports are seen at 0.9526 (Oct 17 low) and then 0.9500/0.9498 (psychological level/Oct 16 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.9670 (daily high) and 0.9700 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9712 (50% of 1.0581-0.8847).





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  #140  
Old 24-10-2013, 13:46
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US: Trade deficit rose to $38.80 billion in August





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh)
-The Commerce Department has informed that the trade deficit expanded to $38.80 billion during August from $38.64 billion (revised from $39.15 billion) in the previous month (revised). The print however bettered the median at $39.50 billion.





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  #141  
Old 24-10-2013, 13:57
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GBP/USD tug of war, can support 1.6150 hold up?




FXstreet.com (London) - GBP/USD has been a tug of war over the past couple of sessions, spending most of yesterday on the back foot following a large order that hit the market on the China news.

Key 1.6115/20 level held up and the reversal has swift, trading back above 1.62 on the open in Europe today. However, the dollar has risen again taking the pair lower while the trade balance has improved in August. This opens up a well defined range between (1.6115 and 1.6260) and a break of either could illicit a decent move.

GBP/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 1.6090, the 50 DMA is 1.5877 and the 200 DMA is 1.5478. RSI (14) reads 39.73. Supports are ascending from 1.6033, 1.6064, 1.6076 and 1.6110. Spot is currently 1.6155 while resistances are 1.6190, 1.6205, 1.6228, 1.6260 and 1.6310.




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  #142  
Old 24-10-2013, 14:04
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European Council to focus on US spying allegations at the summit




FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The European Council begins a two-day meeting in Brussels today and most likely the main topic of discussion will be the latest revelations in the US spying scandal, which will push the economic and social issues expected to be dealt with into the background.

Over the week both French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to Barack Obama, asking about the spying allegations. On Monday the French leader demanded explanations on the reports of the US monitoring millions of phone calls in France. On Wednesday Merkel called the US President to ask about evidence of her phone being tapped by the American intelligence.

European Union leaders, who initially planned to focus on ways of boosting employment in the area and dealing with the immigration crisis, will now most probably shift their attention to the issue of EU-wide data privacy rules.




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  #143  
Old 25-10-2013, 16:32
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USD/CHF, condemned for 2-year lows altitudes until 2014?






FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF extends retracement from 0.8966 session highs on bearish pressure that maintains the pair around 2-year lows. With worse than expected data outweighing positive results, the trading range for the rest of the day is expected to remain within the 0.8860 and 0.90 boundaries.

US data


Earlier US data published includes durable goods orders at 3.7% vs. past 0.1% and expected 2.0% along durable goods orders ex transportation below expectations set at 0.5% to settle for -0.1%. The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index is 73.2 vs. expectations at 75 and past results at 77.5. With low impact, wholesale inventories for August print 0.5% vs. past 0.2% and estimates at 0.3%.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

Technically speaking, the pair is offered at 0.8936 and oscillates between the supports aligned at 0.8888 (October 24th lows), 0.88 (key psychological support) ahead of 0.8729 (May 15th 2011 lows) and the resistances set at 0.8964 (October 23rd highs), 0.90 (October 21st lows) followed by 0.9146 (October 21st highs). Price action reveals a pair that retraces after reaching the strong 0.8964 resistance (October 23rd highs also). After stalling for hours, the pair strengthened throughout the Asian session but was stopped, coincidentally, with the release of durable goods data. The primary and secondary trends point down and the pair flows around 2-year lows.





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  #144  
Old 25-10-2013, 16:54
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EUR/USD treads water around 1.3800






FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD is back at the flat line around 1.3800 after rejection from the 23-month high of 1.3830 was contained by 1.3774.

The EUR/USD came under mild pressure during the European session following soft German IFO readings but moves lacked momentum confining the pair to gravitate around the 1.3800 mark. The latest string of US data including US durable goods orders, consumer confidence and wholesale inventories offered no motivation to the pair.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.3795/1.3800, virtually unchanged on the day and with short-term indicators offering no clear signs according to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. "Strong acceleration above 1.3805 is required to confirm further upward potential ahead", Bednarik says. The analyst locates immediate resistances at 1.3805, 1.3835 and 1.3860, while she sees supports at 1.3770, 1.3735 and 1.3710.





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  #145  
Old 25-10-2013, 17:08
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GBP/USD dips to lows around 1.6150






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The sterling is now rapidly losing the grip against the greenback, with the GBP/USD falling to session lows in the area of the mid 1.61s.

GBP/USD a victim of profit taking

The pair has been quite erratic throughout the week, meandering around 1.6100 and Tuesday’s peaks near 1.6260. Today’s release of the UK GDP figures for the third quarter came in as expected and was practically ignored by the price action, as much of it was already priced in by markets. In the opinion of Trevor Greetham, Director of Asset Allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment “A strong recovery in UK GDP is under way with survey evidence pointing to an even stronger fourth quarter. It's housing-led but any growth is better than no growth as regards getting the budget deficit down and there's a good chance the recovery broadens as companies start to invest in new equipment”.

GBP/USD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.20% at 1.6166 and a violation of 1.6119 (low Oct.23) would expose 1.6115 (low Oct.22) and finally 1.6096 (MA10d). On the upside, the initial barrier lies at 1.6258 (high Oct.23) followed by 1.6260 (high Oct.1) and then 1.6300 (psychological level).




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  #146  
Old 25-10-2013, 17:19
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EUR/USD treading water at 1.3800






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The single currency is looking to stabilize around the 1.3800 handle on Friday, with the EUR/USD closing its second consecutive week with gains.

EUR/USD keeps the ytd highs

The pair continues to navigate around year highs nonetheless, easing some ground from overnight tops near 1.3840. The German IFO series came in on the softer side, although the pair quickly shrugged off the result. Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, noted, “The sustained rally off 1.3100 now looks set to test declining resistance and a set of measured targets in the 1.3950-1.4050 area. As noted earlier this month, weekly momentum continues to be supportive as it pushes solidly higher… Although the more positive profile is gaining force, any sign of faltering would still need to be closely monitored with a slip below 1.3570 needed to undermine the current positive tone for EUR”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.02% at 1.3798 and a breakdown of 1.3741 (low Oct.23) would open the door to 1.3700 (psychological level) and finally 1.3662 (low Oct.22). On the upside, the first hurdle aligns at 1.3832 (2013 high Oct.25) ahead of 1.3826 (high Oct.24) and finally 1.3859 (high Nov.11 2011).





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  #147  
Old 28-10-2013, 15:15
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Flash: No one in at the ECB but plenty of data






FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at BBH noted the ECB will not meet until next Thursday, November 7 but ahead of that, the euro zone will report a host of data this week.

Key Quotes:

“Spain and Ireland report September retail sales on Tuesday”.

“German October CPI and jobs, Spain Q3 GDP and September CPI all come out on Wednesday”.

“On Thursday, Germany reports September retail sales and November GfK consumer confidence”.

“… while Friday sees the start of the October PMI readings with Greece and Spain reporting”.

“The bulk of the final PMI readings from the euro zone will be seen next Monday”.

“More concrete talks about the shape of the new German coalition start on Wednesday. Control of the finance ministry is one of the areas at stakes. This is not just what party would get to appoint the minister, but there is also some talk of changing ministry’s responsibilities including European policy”.




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  #148  
Old 28-10-2013, 15:34
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US October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to 3.6 vs 12.8 (September)






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  #149  
Old 28-10-2013, 16:27
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US 3-Month Bill Auction increase to 0.046% from 0.035%






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  #150  
Old 28-10-2013, 16:33
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Flash: EUR/USD short term technical look bullish – Scotiabank






FXstreet.com (Barcelona)
- Scotiabank strategists believe that EUR/USD looks bullish in the short term, based on a technical outlook.

Key Quotes

“Near term momentum and trend indicators are bullish. Key resistance level for EUR lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2011-12 decline in EUR, which lies at 1.3833.”

“A meaningful break of this level would likely spur continued gains. Meanwhile, a near term pull back would be expected to find support at 1.3681 followed by 1.3550.”




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  #151  
Old 29-10-2013, 12:59
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US September Producer Price Index: MoM -0.1% ; 0.3% YoY






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  #152  
Old 29-10-2013, 13:11
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US October 20 Redbook index (MoM) falls 1.3%; (YoY) grows 3.6%






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  #153  
Old 29-10-2013, 13:19
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US: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices grow more than expected in August






FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - On an annual basis the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increased 12.8% in August, up from the 12.4% growth in July, Standard & Poor's informed on Tuesday. Analysts expected less rise of 12.4%.





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  #154  
Old 29-10-2013, 13:29
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US: Redbook Index fell 1.3% MoM






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Redbook index contracted 1.3% on a monthly basis and expanded 3.6% over the last twelve months in the week ended on May 26, against previous prints at 1.5% and 2.9%, respectively.



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  #155  
Old 30-10-2013, 12:44
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US ADP Employment Change down to 130K in October from 145K






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  #156  
Old 30-10-2013, 12:54
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EUR/USD glued to 1.3760 on US CPI






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The EUR/USD is returning to the comfort zone around 1.3765/70 on Wednesday, after the inflation figures in the US economy came in mixed in September.

EUR/USD range intact


The pair keeps the intraday range so far, fading the post-ADP attempt to the 1.3780 region, after the US headline CPI banged on estimates advancing 1.2% YoY and 0.2% inter-month. The Core reading, however, advanced 1.7% over the last twelve months, missing the median at 1.8%. In light of today’s FOMC gathering, analysts at Investec commented, “The current policy stance is expected to be maintained, although markets will watch for any changes in the tone of the statement, particularly any dovish comments on the recent downturn in labour market data and disruption caused by the government shutdown, which would lend support to the current risk positive mood”.

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now advancing 0.15% at 1.3765 with the next resistance at 1.3818 (high Oct.28) ahead of 1.3833 (2013 high Oct.25) and finally 1.3859 (high Nov.11 2011). On the flip side, a break below 1.3727 (MA10d) would expose the psychological level at 1.3700 followed by 1.3662 (low Oct.22).



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Flash: USD/JPY rebounds from the 4 month uptrend - Commerzbank






FXstreet.com (Athens) – Karen Jones Head Technical Analyst of Commerzbank, mentions that the USD/JPY continues to rebound from its 4 month support line at 97.04.

Key Quotes

“This guards the current October low at 96.55 and the six month support line at 96.00. The market has been contained in a large contracting range for the past 6 months and currently we have no real indication that the market is ready to break down through 96.00, but there is scope to test this level and the downside risk remains.”

“Rallies will find minor resistance at 98.48 ahead of 99.01/06 last weeks high.”


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US: CPI rose 1.2% in September






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour has informed that US consumer prices rose 1.2% on a yearly basis during September, in line with expectations although lower than August’s 1.5%. On a monthly basis, prices advanced 0.2% vs. 0.1% previous. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM, both prints missed the median at 1.8% and 0.2%, respectively.


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  #159  
Old 31-10-2013, 15:03
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Euro continues to slide on sharp inflation drop






FXstreet.com (London) - The euro has continued to slide, with a surprise drop in inflation fuelling expectations of a rate cut from the European Central Bank.

EUR/USD has fallen 0.80 percent following inflation numbers showing a near four-year low in October. A flash estimate from the European Union's Statistics Office showed that inflation fell to 0.7 percent year-on-year, the first time that it has dropped below 1 percent since February 2010.

The flash estimate was a sharp fall from consensus expectations of 1.1 percent.

With Eurozone unemployment rates still eye-wateringly high, the drop in inflation has raised expectations of an ECB rate cut, already at 0.5 percent.

Spanish unemployment is currently 26.6 percent, with the Eurozone at 12.2 percent.

EUR/USD is currently USD1.3617.

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  #160  
Old 31-10-2013, 15:12
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EUR/USD extends losses on strong Chicago PMI






The EUR/USD fell to a fresh low as the greenback strengthened on a surprisingly strong US Chicago PMI.

EUR/USD nears 1.3600

The Chicago PMI jumped to 65.9 in October from 55.7 the previous month, exceeding expectations (55.9) by more than 10 points. The employment component also rose to 57.7 from 53.2. The EUR/USD took another step lower and printed a low of 1.3602, last seen Oct 17.

EUR/USD technical outlook

From a technical view, the BBH analyst team noted earlier that only a break below 1.3600 (62% retracement of the October 16-25 rise) would suggest that this is anything more than a corrective dollar bounce.

Meanwhile, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com commented that EUR/USD holds a strong bearish tone in short-term charts, suggesting a continuation to 1.3580 next strong support. Bednarik locates next supports at 1.3580 and 1.3540, while she places resistances at 1.3650, 1.3710 and 1.3750.

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