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  #81  
Old 09-09-2013, 14:20
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EUR/USD strikes back above 1.3200




FXstreet.com (Athens)- The EUR/USD strikes back above 1.3200 gaining around 10 pips, as Syria’s tensions fade way, European yields calming down and…Sentix boosts confidence in Euro land.

The EUR/USD spikes above 1.3200; it might be a squeezing of positions taken from Friday’s NFP?

Earlier, at 8.30 GMT hours, the Sentix confidence data released at +6.5 versus -3.5 expected, a clear sign that sentiment is indeed turning in the Euro-Zone. Moreover, spreads in Euro land tend to calm down; elaborating on, German 10-year bond yield is trading 0.1 bps lower to 1.95%, while Spain benchmark yield is trading 0.9 bps lower to 4.51%. As it is taken for granted that the Fed will proceed in September with a gradual cutback of asset purchases (as otherwise might be problematic from a credibility perspective given Fed officials’ considerable efforts “communicate” tapering the recent months), investors should try to figure out news-flow arguing against a sustained stimulus reduction cycle through the year-end. What’s more, as long as news wires suggest that “UK and US share revulsion over the Syria attack, during joint press conference with US's Kerry,” it is well anticipated that the single currency might be find additional support. Needless to say, traders over the glove should take upon consideration the fact, that the pair might be still in an upwards trend, due on position "squeezing" since Friday's NFP's.

Technical Outlook and Strategic Bias on EUR/USD

Greg Moore on behalf of TD securities suggest that “EUR/USD has bounced a little further from the lows reached late last week, continuing with tone in the wake of Friday’s softer US jobs report. For the week ahead, Eurozone industrial production and CPI on Wednesday are the data highlights of the week, but the market will likely be more concerned with the Italian Senate talks on whether to expel Berlusconi (starting today at 9:00AM ET), the ECB’s Asmussen’s comments on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings at the end of the week. Overall, without too much significant on the calendar, consolidation could be the order of the week and that could see EUR/USD retrace a bit more recent slide. We continue to be bearish longer term however, and look to sell rallies to the mid-upper 1.32 area.” At the time of writing the pair is trading nearly 1.3216, up 0.12%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish in the 15 minutes chart. Daily pivot point support can be found at S3:1.3182 S2: 1.3142 S3: 1.3116 and resistance at R1: 1.3245 R2:1.3277 R3: 1.3310, respectively.



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  #82  
Old 09-09-2013, 14:39
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USD/CHF heads downwards as hedge funds bid in risk





FXstreet.com (Athens)- The USD/CHF is under heavy pressure due to the fact that risk-appetite is back “on” and EUR/USD..trades significantly higher.

The USD/CHF under pressure amidst Fed taper bets and EUR/USD uptrend behavior

It is taken for granted that the Fed will proceed in September with a gradual cutback of asset purchases (as otherwise might be problematic from a credibility perspective given Fed officials’ considerable efforts “communicate” tapering the recent months). However, we still do not know on what is likely to happen thereafter. Investors should be aware if the Fed’s president in San Franscisco Williams adopts a dovish or hawkish stance in his speech, as his comments amount to the last bit of “fed-speak” before Fed officials proceed with the final decision.

Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Traders should never forget that there is a highly strong and negative correlation between the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD. Thus, since EUR/USD moved abruptly above 1.3200, the USD/CHF came under heavily pressure almost instantly. Thus, investors can take advantage of the two pair correlation, independently on what cross are interested in. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9339, down 0.40%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bearish and extremely oversold in the 15 minutes framework. Daily pivot point support can be found at S3: 0.9307 S2: 0.9284 S1:0.9260 and resistance at R1:0.9417 R2:0.9441 R3:0.9464, respectively.




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  #83  
Old 09-09-2013, 14:53
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EUR/USD bullish testing 1.3220 resistance





FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/USD had regained its positioning back in the 1.3200 handle, continuing on from Friday’s move to 1.3180 after the disappointing US jobs data.

EUR/USD opened on the bid and has continued through the figure exceeding September highs. The pair may find some resistance here meeting the May top on a quiet calendar. On Wednesday we will see CPI data for Germany. Then we have some jobless claims data for the US later in the week and Friday will bring Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

EUR/USD RSI above 70

The 20 DMA is 1.3282, the 50 DMA is 1.3203 and the 200 DAM is 1.3148. RSI (14) reads 77.55 and signals a consolidation period. Supports are ascending from 1.3051, 1.3126, 1.313,9 1.3154, 1.3171, and 1.3189. Spot is 1.3219 and resistances are 1.3225, 1.3237 and 1.3255.




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  #84  
Old 11-09-2013, 12:31
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Flash: Equities notch impressive rally after Syria abates – Deutsche Bank




FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - Markets have continued with their impressive run and we've now seen 7 full business days in September and global equities have been higher for all of them and the S&P500 has not seen a down day since the last business day of August, notes Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank.

Key quotes

“A combination of falling crude prices (down 4% since Friday), a potential back down in the threat of a US military strike in Syria and yesterday’s firmer Chinese industrial production data combined to give the S&P500 (+0.73%) its longest winning streak since July.”

“In a prime time televised speech, Obama reiterated his moral arguments for action in Syria but said that he was willing to give diplomacy a chance to run its course. S&P500 futures responded positively to the President’s comments.”



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  #85  
Old 11-09-2013, 12:43
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Flash: EUR/USD primed for bearishness – TD Securities



FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - German CPI data earlier was one of highlight Eurozone releases of the week, although an as-expected outcome and the bigger focus on Syrian developments left the EUR/USD in consolidation mode, notes the TD Securities Team.

Key quotes

“ECB Executive Board member Asmussen speaks again this afternoon (at 1:00PM ET) where he is likely to emphasize the downside case as he did yesterday. Echoing Draghi last week, Asmussen has reiterated that the ECB remains ready to act if conditions deteriorate.”

“Such comments could weigh on the EUR/USD in an otherwise quiet day for data. Syrian headlines, are of course the other main concern for EUR/USD and the FX space as a whole today. Broadly speaking, we remain bearish on the pair and as we outlined in a note yesterday, we think these levels mark the sell zone.”




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  #86  
Old 11-09-2013, 12:58
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GBP/USD unable to retest highs, though still strong



FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - The GBP/USD technical pair has eased off of earlier highs at 1.5828 Wednesday, still clinging to robust advances during US trading.

GBP/USD strategic bias

According to Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, “The GBP/USD bias had been that the pair was forming a tight trading range between effectively 1.50 and 1.58 and the slippage into September was likely to trigger a slide to redefine range support. However, rising channel support was not broken and the strength of the rebounds through 1.5600 (a pivot level now) continues. Potential is now building for a measured squeeze, through 1.5780, to the 1.6060-80 area.”

GBP/USD technical levels

The GBP/USD is now operating at 1.5775, and while it has been unable to reclaim its earlier highs, it still is residing in positive territory, up +0.27%. Technically speaking the GBP/USD looks to face resistance at 1.5779, onto 1.5815, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.




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  #87  
Old 13-09-2013, 12:50
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EUR/GBP downwards as EZ fundamentals hit a nerve




FXstreet.com (Athens)- The EUR/GBP is under pressure for a fourth straight session, as Euro zone fundamentals hit a nerve on Euro Zone finance ministers meeting.

EUR/GBP under high pressure and 0.8400 in high jeopardy

The EUR/GBP is under heavy pressure; today the Finance Ministers of Euro land gather to discuss topics which will likely include the status of the bailout program for Cyprus, as well as the funding gap of around EUR4.0 billion for Greece. The single currency is suffering as Greece, Cyprus, the economy and banking union are on deck. What’s more besides the spicy agenda of the today’s Euro zone conference, the single currency is under pressure due to the 1.5% m/m contraction in Euro zone July industrial production. Furthermore, we should not forget that Draghi stated yesterday that the upturn is still “very, very green”. Last but not least, Syria’s issue is still on focus, even if it doesn’t be across the news wires at the same immensely tone. This issue still has the potential to create uncertainty and renewed tension.

Technical outlook on EUR/GBP

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank, notes that “the EUR-GBP remains skating above the 0.8400 floor amid a still heavy posture.” At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8402, down 0.13%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be strongly bearish in a 15minutes time framework. Daily pivot point support can be found at 0.8400, 0.8395, 0.8374, and resistance at 0.8444, 0.8466, and 0.8487, respectively.



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  #88  
Old 13-09-2013, 13:18
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USD/CHF extends losses on dismal US data




FXstreet.com (Athens) - The USD/CHF under renewed pressure on poor retail sales release.

USD/CHF breaks the support as of 0.9300 on weak retail sales release

The USD/CHF was trading downwards since early European trading, but caught under heavy selling pressure after the release of disappointing US retail sales data. However, while the US retail data rose at a weaker than expected number (by 0.2% on a monthly basis, though there were upward revisions to previous months data), the figure was not that bad to stop the notorious “tapering”. Still, the ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with the slowdown in private sector credit along with soft retail sales data, dragged down the pair as market participants scale back bets of seeing a less-dovish FOMC.

Strategic aspects and Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggests “USD/CHF has failed on its initial test of 0.9455 and is correcting lower. We look for this correction to ideally terminate circa. 09280 (the 50% retracement). What’s more, Rallies will find initial resistance at .9353 and will need to clear last week high at 0.9455 to reassert upside pressure.”



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  #89  
Old 16-09-2013, 15:32
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Markets buoyed by Yellen, "Insert 'Summers Over' gag here"







FXstreet.com (London) - Markets this morning jumped on news that Larry Summers, the favourite to take over from Ben Bernanke, had withdrawn his name from the race to be the next Fed Chairman. In his absence, Janet Yellen has come to the forefront, having been previously tipped to take the top job at the US central bank before Bernanke was re-nominated by Barack Obama in 2009.

Markets dependent on a steady stream of cheap money from the Federal Reserve were buoyant on the change in the running. Summers had been seen as a hawk who would move to tighten the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, however Yellen is seen much more in the Bernanke mould, ready to take a monetary activist stance to manipulate the economy and to keep the taps open on QE to inflate stock prices.

It should, however, be noted that Summers withdrew from the race following Democrat opposition not to his monetary stance, or his perceived-monetary stance, but to his corporate ties and his involvement in the events surrounding the 2008 crash. In July, when it became apparent that Summers was front running to take the Fed job, about a third of the 54-member Democratic caucus in the Senate signed a letter to Obama endorsing Yellen. Although the letter did not attack Summers specifically, it stressed Yellen’s “solid record as a bank regulator” and “willingness to challenge conventional wisdom regarding deregulation” – a not-so-veiled attack on Summers deregulatory stance pre-2008.

In a letter to President Obama, Summers said that “I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration, or ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing economic recovery.”

While the markets seem to have responded in no uncertain terms to Summers exit from the running for the Fed job, just what difference would a Yellen chairmanship fundamentally make to monetary policy? It is also worth remembering that Yellen is not a foregone conclusion – Obama may still choose to throw Roger Ferguson, Donald Kohn or even Tim Geithner into the mix.

The bond markets certainly seemed unambiguous about the difference that Yellen would make over Summers – 10 year Treasuries shed 8bps on the news, on lowering worries of an aggressive tapering of the QE infinity, and the current $45bn of asset purchases made by the Fed each month, artificially depressing Treasury yields.

Yellen, currently Vice Chairman of the Fed, leads the committee on Fed communication, and has taken the lead on changes to the way that the central bank communicates information to the markets - introducing post-meeting press conferences and forward guidance on policy rates and quantitative easing.

But Fed internal policies aside, Yellen is a Keynesian monetary activist and quick to step in with a heavy hand to regulate markets – there is no coincidence that she has been pushed so heavily by the left-leaning Democrat caucus. It is unavoidable that the Fed will have to ease off its quantitative easing programme – but, if successful, Yellen will undoubtedly be slower to take her foot off the gas than Summers. And to an equities market bloated by cheep cash, and to a Treasury market artificially depressed by asset purchases, any extra time that they can be supported by the Fed is good news all round.



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  #90  
Old 16-09-2013, 15:56
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US sells $30 bn in 3-month bills at 0.010%







Read more in Forex News




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  #91  
Old 18-09-2013, 14:13
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US: Building Permits fell to 918K in August






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Commerce Department has informed that Building Permits fell to 918K during August, missing the median at 950K and lower than July’s 954K (revised). New Construction of US houses rose to 891K in the same period vs. forecasts at 917K and up from 883K previous (revised).



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  #92  
Old 18-09-2013, 14:28
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EUR/JPY oscillates around 132.00






FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Despite the consolidative tone prevailing in financial markets, the Yen has managed to secure gains versus its major competitors, dragging EUR/JPY below the 132.00 mark Wednesday.

However, the EUR/JPY managed to find buyers at the 131.85 zone and bounced, although with the recovery capped by the 100-hour SMA, the cross was confined to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 132.00, where it records a 0.3% loss on the day (following 2 days of gains).

EUR/JPY supports and resistances

As for technical levels, next supports could be found at 131.85 (daily low) and 131.60 (Sep 16 low), while on the other hand resistances line up at 132.25 (100-hour SMA) and 132.60 (daily high).



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  #93  
Old 19-09-2013, 14:36
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Canada: Wholesale Sales rose 1.5% in July



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -Canadian Wholesale Sales rose 1.5% on a monthly basis during July, surpassing forecasts at 1.0% and improving June’s 2.8% drop (revised).



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  #94  
Old 19-09-2013, 14:52
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Oil rises after Fed keeps its foot on the gas, inventories down



FXstreet.com (London) - WTI has been driven to one-week highs on the back of yesterday’s announcement that the US Federal Reserve would not be going ahead with expected plans to taper its monthly asset purchases. This was combined with reports that US inventories had fallen faster than expected.

News that the Federal Reserve would not be taking its foot off the gas with its ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at stimulating the economy of the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, rallied oil prices. WTI October contracts currently stand at USD107.70/barrel, having hit highs of USD108.99.

November Brent prices currently stand at USD109.79/barrel, after hitting highs of USD111.26.

The spread between US WTI contracts and European Brent has declined to USD2.27, a six-week low.

According to data released by the Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories have slid to 355.6 million. The seasonally adjusted annual fall of 4.368m barrels was a sharp increase on -0.219m in the preceding month. Analysts had expected inventories to fall -1.394m.

The squeeze on US supplies has tightened the WTI-Brent spread, which had preciously traded at a USD19 premium on Syrian tensions combined with US oversupply.



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  #95  
Old 19-09-2013, 15:08
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USD/JPY holding over key support



FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY has taken out key resistance that now comes as support in 99.40 territory, with the pair currently sitting at 99.55 and looking comfortable.

USD/JPY got a lift from better data from the US. The US reported initial jobless claims rose to 309K last week, beating expectations, while the current account deficit contracted to 98.89B in the Q2.

USD/JPY Levels

The 20 DMA is 98.97, the 50 DMA is 98.64 and the 200 DMA is 95.88. RSI (14) reads 72.00. Supports are ascending from 97.29, 97.45, 97.65, 97.76, 98.57, 98.79 and 99.12. Spot is 99.55. The pair eyes 100.00/60 for September highs.



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  #96  
Old 20-09-2013, 16:23
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Gold driven back down on Bullard comments, "taper bounce" fades



FXstreet.com (London) - Gold has continued its decline today, pushed lower by hints from St Louis Fed chairman and FOMC voting member James Bullard that a small tapering of the Fed’s monthly asset purchases might be possible in October.

The gold price had seen some recovery earlier in the week, when the news that the Fed would not be going ahead of the much-anticipated tapering of its monthly asset purchases pushed up prices.

Gold currently stands at USD1338.30/oz, with potential for further downside.

The yellow metal has lost its shine in recent months as investors seek yield as global macro data strengthens and volatility abates.

It had been driven to historic record highs in September 2011 as a combination of European uncertainty, US debt ceiling deadlock and Middle Eastern tensions combined to make the perfect storm for haven flows into the safety of gold.

Though the threat of US debt ceiling bickering is once again o the horizon, increasing global confidence is going to make any upside support for gold very unlikely.



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  #97  
Old 20-09-2013, 16:40
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AUD/USD sliding below pivot; just a consolidation above 94.00?



FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD has lost its form in the dollars consolidation of losses and finds lows below the 94.00 handle.

AUDUSD has printed a low of 0.9377 and has lost all of its gains in the same week as we come to a close for this week’s session. The pair has been subdued by EUR/AUD demand in European markets as the cross inched higher and markets are also looking towards shorting AUD/NZD as a favoured play which is weighing on the Aussie as well. The pair needs to hold onto the 94.00 handle if it is still to become a convincing long play. Otherwise, caution would set in on failures around here as the market keeps a close eye on data that would be influencing plans on timings for US tapering.

AUD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is .9188, the 50 DMA is .9142 and the 200 DMA is .9864. RSI (14) reads 30.69. Supports are ascending from .9271 .9285 and .9330. Spot is currently .9396 while resistances are at .9439, .9503, .9530, .9574 and .9581.




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  #98  
Old 20-09-2013, 16:54
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Fitch cuts Croatia to Junk and Malta to A ratings



FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Fitch Ratings has downgraded Croatia sovereign debt to BB+ from BBB- according to a press release published by the agency. Fitch also cut Malta to 'A' from 'A+'. Both with stable outlook.

According to Fitch, "Croatia's fiscal outlook has deteriorated since Fitch's previous sovereign rating review in November 2012. The agency has revised up its forecast for this year's general government deficit to 4.7% in 2013 from 3.9%, while general government debt/GDP is now expected to peak at 66% of GDP in 2016, up from our previous forecast of 62%."

Croatian real GDP growth has significantly underperformed 'BBB' and 'BB' medians: "The economy has been mired in recession since 2009, contracting by a cumulative 11%, and unemployment far exceeds rating peers. Q213 national accounts suggest that the rate of contraction is declining, but Fitch now expects the economy to contract by a further 0.9% in 2013, in contrast to our previous expectation of growth of 0.3%."

On the Malta decision, "there has been significant fiscal slippage," says Fitch. "Malta's general government deficit was 3.3% of GDP in 2012, well above both the government's target (2.2%) and Fitch's September 2012 forecast (2.6% of GDP). This slippage has carried over to 2013, when Fitch forecasts a deficit of 3.6% of GDP, compared with 2.7% in the original 2013 budget."

"Public debt dynamics are worsening," continues Fitch. The agency "now forecasts that general government gross debt (GGGD) will peak at 74% of GDP in 2014-15 (two years later than we previously expected) and decline only marginally in the medium term, remaining above 73pp of GDP by 2020. A debt ratio that is higher for longer reduces the fiscal space to absorb future adverse shocks."




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  #99  
Old 24-09-2013, 17:21
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EUR/USD struggles to make ground with central banks in a battle of the doves



FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro showed some falls on weaker than expected German sentiment and dovish European Central Bank comments. But in a battle of the doves, any gains to be made by the dollar against the common currency have been sandbagged by Fed support of continuing ultra-loose policy.

The LFO business climate index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000 firms, indicated that German sentiment rose to 107.7 in September, missing the consensus forecast of 108.2. The figure compared with a revised reading of 107.6 in August.

The number represents a 17-month high, but given the recent strong momentum of German macro data, it still disappointed.

While the miss on consensus was minor, markets have been particularly sensitive following comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi yesterday that the ECB would be prepared to maintain cheap borrowing rates through its long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) mechanism in order to hold down money market rates.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny reinforced Draghi’s stance today by saying that any European growth remained too fragile for the central bank to remove its support.

EUR/USD is currently trading at USD1.3487, barely dipping below its USD1.3492 opening price.




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  #100  
Old 24-09-2013, 17:40
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USD/CAD hesitant around 1.0300



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - As most pairs in the FX market, the USD/CAD has spent most of the day in a range as investors seem hesitant regarding what side to take regarding the USD.

USD/CAD stuck in a range

USD/CAD fell to a session low of 1.0268 at the beginning of the American session but quickly bounced back above the 1.0300 mark although it couldn’t sustain either the bullish momentum and settled around mid-range. From a wider perspective, the pair remains stuck in a range constrained by 1.0268 on the downside and 1.0310 on the upside.

USD/CAD technical levels

At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0295 zone, 0.1% above its opening price. In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.0310 (daily high) and 1.0317 (Sep 18 high) ahead of 1.0348 (100-day SMA). On the downside, supports are seen at 1.0268 (daily low) and 1.0215 (200-day SMA).




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  #101  
Old 24-09-2013, 18:06
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Markets revert losses on mixed US data



FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -US shares reverted the negative start on Tuesday, after mixed bag of results from consumer confidence and housing sector. The US Dollar index, which tracks the greenback against its major competitors, is edging higher, retaking the mid 80.00s area and extending its bounce off post-Fed lows. At the moment, DowJones is up 0.16%, followed by the S&P500, 0.27% and the Nasdaq, 0.59%.

Bourses in Euroland nudged higher on better German IFO series, although mixed US data dragged the main indices from intraday peaks. The IBEX35 was the top performer, up 0.64%, seconded by the CAC40, 0.56% and the DAX, 0.34%. Quite erratic day for the EUR, climbing to 1.3520 after breaking overnight’s consolidation pattern, just to fall afterwards to lows near 1.3460 and currently meandering around 1.3485/90.

In the commodities’ sphere, the both the barrel of WTI and the ounce troy of gold are giving ground, down 0.87% at $102.72 and 0.41% at $1, 322, respectively.





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  #102  
Old 25-09-2013, 17:40
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USD/CAD dips back below 1.0300


FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD dropped to fresh lows during the New York session as the greenback came under renewed pressure across the board.

After failing to overcome the 1.0320 level, USD/CAD spent a few hours in a tight range but failed to hold above the 1.0300 psychological level and dropped to fresh daily lows in recent dealings. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0295 area, having found support at the 100-hour SMA at 1.0285.

USD/CAD levels to watch

On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0285 (100-hour SMA) and 1.0270 (Sep 24 low)., while on the upside, if USD/CAD manages to overcome the 1.0320/27 area (daily highs/38.2% Fib of 1.0560/1.0182), next resistances are seen at 1.0350 (100-day SMA) and 1.0370 (50% Fibo level).





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  #103  
Old 25-09-2013, 18:19
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AUD/USD, 0.9400 still a wishful thinking




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Aussie dollar managed to retraced the whole intraday decline on Wednesday, lifting the AUD/USD from troughs around 0.9340 to the vicinity of 0.9390, losing some traction afterwards.

AUD/USD keeps hinging on risk trends

Extremely light docket in the Australian economy prompted investors to look towards the US economy for drivers this week, as key data and significant Fedspeak would be in the limelight. In the opinion of Robert Rennie, Strategist at Westpac, “My best guess this week is that AUD will still correct lower. It's possible we could see a move to 0.9250/0.9280 if concerns about the "US debt ceiling and budget showdown" rise. However, if anybody listened to my views last week and did sell AUD above 0.95, I would be advising buying them back on dips towards that 0.9280 level. Let's see what happens when we get there”.

AUD/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is down 0.17% at 0.9375 with the next support at 0.9343 (low Sep.23) and then 0.9336 (low Sep.18). On the flip side, a breakout of 0.9394 (high Sep.25) would clear the way to 0.9428 (high Sep.24) and finally 0.9459 (high Sep.20).





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  #104  
Old 25-09-2013, 19:00
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Flash: A third of the market fooled - BBH




FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at BBH note that the market is still wrestling with the Fed's decision not to taper.

Key Quotes:

“Investors continue to wrestle with the implications of the Federal Reserve's decision last week not to taper”.

“What is being generally overlooked is that a full third of the market, according to various polls, did not expect the Fed to taper. Many journalists were surprised, and this seems to be colouring their coverage. For example, just yesterday, a Financial Times reporters wrote, "To a man, Wall Street's best strategists were caught out by the Federal Reserve's decision not to curb its emergency asset buying." Substitute strategists with reporters and the assessment may be fairer”.





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  #105  
Old 26-09-2013, 17:55
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USD/JPY a mixed bag; 99.00 a challenge




FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY had managed a breach of the 99.00 handle, on three attempts but has failed to offer any conviction and subsequent of less than impressive Us data the pair are struggling to hang in there.

TD Securities explained that fresh reports that the Abe government is considering a corporate tax cut in the near future to help balance the much telegraphed sales tax increase on the horizon saw the JPY sell off sharply across the board early in the overnight session. “The Nikkei was boosted by over 1% on the news, and the index’s strong, positive correlation with USD/JPY is likely a strong force behind the pressure on the currency. But the broadly consolidative tone of markets has seen most of that move retrace in recent hours. Reports of new government policies have grown very common now and we may need to see a hard announcement before we see USD/JPY levels outside of the range of the past two months (97.50/100)”. From the calendar, US GDP came in slightly lower than anticipated by markets, at 2.5% vs 2.6% while initial jobless claims improved in terms of the consensus at 305K against 325K expected.

USD/JPY Levels

The 20 DMA is 99.20, the 50 DMA is 98.58 and the 200 DMA is 96.25. RSI (14) 57.12. Supports are ascending from 97.98, 98.19 ,98.27 and 98.51. spot is currently 98.94 while resistances are 99.18, 99.36, 99.67 and 99.99.



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  #106  
Old 27-09-2013, 18:58
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Markets in red on debt ceiling jitters




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The ongoing debate surrounding the US debt ceiling and the lack of solid responses, if any, by the US politicians are weighing on sentiment at the end of the trading week, as October 1st deadline is looming. The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is bouncing off session lows, giving away weekly gains around 80.20/15. As of writing, DowJones is retreating 0.44%, followed by the S&P500, 0.40% and the Nasdaq, 0.08%.

Across the pond, Italian political effervescence dragged the main indices lower, with the FTSE100 dropping 0.81%, ahead of the IBEX35, 0.47% and the DAX, 0.03%. The shared currency is netting a flat week around 1.3520, retracing earlier gains after testing post-FOMC peaks around 1.3560/65.

Commodities are trading in a mixed tone, with the ounce troy of gold gaining 1.06% at $1,338 and the barrel of WTI losing 0.18% at $102.84.





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  #107  
Old 01-10-2013, 13:50
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USD/JPY - Abe hikes sales tax and announces stimulus, but is it enough?




FXstreet.com (London) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced that the government will raise the national sales tax to 8 percent in April from 5 percent, with the tax hike being softened by a further government stimulus.

The announcement has driven the USD/JPY down to JPY97.7405, down 0.57 percent so far.

The Bank of Japan predicts that the hike will draw in an additional JPY8 trillion in tax receipts. However, the Japanese PM has announced that the hike will coincide with a JPY5 trillion stimulus package.

The tax hike is part of Abe’s attempts to address the country’s huge budget deficit, running at 10 percent of GDP.

In contrast with the trend in most of the major economies, where fiscal contraction policies have gone hand-in-hand with monetary expansion, Japan has pursued a policy of ultra-loose monetary policy with aggressive government stimulus programmes as the country tries to escape deflationary pressures.

With an economy where the Japanese consumer just will not spend, a sales tax hike is a risky manoeuvre. And even if Abe’s policies to generate the predicted revenues, at the current rate they would quickly be consumed by the country’s out of control government spending.



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  #108  
Old 02-10-2013, 16:35
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GBP/USD deflates to 1.6230




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The bullish momentum around the sterling is losing steam at the moment, with the GBP/USD hovering over 1.6230/25 after hitting fresh multi-month highs around 1.6260.

GBP/USD following risk

The 1.6250/60 band seems to be quite a tough barrier for the pair so far, proved by the recent unsuccessful attempts to follow through it despite the favourable risk-on atmosphere. The pair managed to comfortably leave the poor result from the Construction PMI in the UK behind, missing estimates and coming in lower than the August’s reading. “As noted of late, recent gains are now “stretched”, despite the more positive stance in weekly charts. Any slippage below 1.6100 should now raise some concern, though the risk of unraveling recent gains would only develop on a close below the interim 1.5955 of late September”, suggested Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.

GBP/USD relevant levels

As of writing, the pair is up 0.23% at 1.6233 with the next resistance at 1.6300 (psychological level) followed by 1.6380 (2013 high Jan.2) and then 1.6400 (psychological level). On the flip side, a break below 1.6162 (low Oct.2) would expose 1.6100 (low Sep.30) and finally 1.6092 (MA10d).




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  #109  
Old 02-10-2013, 17:05
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EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3600




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The shared currency keeps the upper band of today’s range, with the EUR/USD meandering around 1.3580/1.3600.

EUR/USD boosted by Italy, ECB

The single currency found extra oxygen after Italian PM Enrico Letta won the confidence vote in the Senate (235-70), leaving behind the political unease after last weekend’s events. Recall that ‘Il Cavaliere’ Silvio Berlusconi ordered PdL’s parliamentary members to withdraw their support to the Government, triggering once again another political crisis in the peninsula. Further impulse came in after the ECB meeting and press conference by President Mario Draghi. A repetition of past comments and announcements disappointed investors, who were expecting a dovish tone.

EUR/USD relevant levels

The pair is now advancing 0.44% at 1.3587 with the next resistance at 1.3660 (high Feb.4) followed by 1.3711 (2013 high Feb.1) and finally 1.3800 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.3505 (low Oct.2) would aim for 1.3500 (psychological level) and then 1.3467 (low Sep.30)




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  #110  
Old 03-10-2013, 13:36
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EUR/USD muted on US Claims




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The euro remained mostly indifferent after the Initial Claims came in below expectations, with the EUR/USD hovering over 1.3600 the figure.

EUR/USD indifferent after data

The pair is trading unchanged on Thursday, after Initial Claims dropped to 308K in the week ended on September 27th, surpassing estimates at 313K albeit a tad higher than the previous week print at 308K. Next on tap will be the ISM Non manufacturing, with prior estimates pointing to a decrease to 57.4 during September.

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now advancing 0.19% at 1.3604 with the next resistance at 1.3623 (high Oct.3) followed by 1.3660 (high Feb.4) and then 1.3711 (2013 high Feb.1). On the downside, a break below 1.3578 (low Oct.3) would clear the way to 1.3526 (MA10d) and finally 1.3505 (low Oct.2).



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  #111  
Old 03-10-2013, 14:05
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[color=#0000FF]

USD/JPY lower on weaker US labor data excluding furloughed workers[/color]



FXstreet.com (Athens) – The USD/JPY is heading lower after the US initial jobless claims release, proved to be slightly weaker than expected but it is logically much worse as it doesn’t reflect the more than 800.000 workers furloughed due to government’s shutdown.

USD/JPY under pressure as initial jobless claims become more baffling than ever

The USD/JPY was hovering around 97.65 before the release of the US labor data, but after the data released across the board at a slightly weaker level, the cross started to move downwards, as the greenback got under renewed pressure across the board. We could consider that the real fact that the American dollar got under pressure, dragging down the pair almost 10 pips nearly 97.55 area, was not that the initial jobless claims increased by 1000 to a seasonally adjusted 308.000 in the week ended as of the 28th September. The careful reader should see behind the curtains; the figure released by the Labor Department has a lot of drawbacks.

After California, Nevada it’s now the 800,000 not included in data

First of all, it doesn’t conclude the more than 800.000 workers furloughed due to government’s shutdown. What’s more, Federal furloughs won't show up in forthcoming claims data, according to the US Department of Labor. Finally, we should take for granted that anyhow the data is distorted enough not only because does not include the furloughed workers but also due to the fact that the 4-week moving average of claims includes the weeks when California and Nevada underreported claims due to the computer system upgrades. On the other hand, Fed officials would well see the 800,000 furloughed workers more as a “temporary layoff”, therefore it will not influence their decision on the debt-ceiling.

Technical Outlook on the USD/JPY

Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank, suggests “that with the pair is under considerable downside pressure. Having punctured the 98.00 level convincingly, the next support of consequence is only expected towards the 200-day MA (96.58). Structurally, the USD is expected to remain laden on the back of the fiscal impasse while any deterioration in global risk appetite levels may also weigh on the JPY-crosses.”




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  #112  
Old 03-10-2013, 14:48
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USD/JPY extends decline below 97.30



FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is getting hurt today's session following the weaker than expected jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing reports. Against the Japan Yen, the Greenback is now trading around 97.30.

After declining around 55 pips from 97.85 to break below 97.50, the USD/JPY has reached intra-day lows around 97.25. Currently the pair is pricing at 97.32, almost flat on the day.

Short term perspective is slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index in the 1-hour chart. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic and MACD are neutral.

USD/JPY Technical Bias

According to FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, "USD/JPY attempt to recovery halted around 97.80, with the pair turning back south early US session." Support levels are at 97.20, 96.80 and 96.40. Resistance levels are at 98.00, 98.40 and 98.80.




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  #113  
Old 04-10-2013, 13:19
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Flash: The USD/JPY looking for slide to 200 day ma - Commerzbank




FXstreet.com (Athens) – Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank suggests that the USD/JPY hasn’t changed.

Key Quotes

“The market remains under pressure and is on course for the 200 day ma at 96.63, the August low at 95.80 and the 95.58 5 month support line. This is expected to hold the downside and provoke reversal.”

“The short term resistance line offers initial resistance at 98.32 ahead of
the 100.62 September high then 101.54/60 July high and the Fibonacci retracement.”




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  #114  
Old 08-10-2013, 13:06
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Canada Exports up to $39.77B in August from $39.05B




Read more in Forex News




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  #115  
Old 08-10-2013, 13:29
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EUR/JPY ready to retest 132.00 area




FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/JPY has been constantly trading upwards since the kick-off of the early trading session in Asian – apart from a couple of hours after the dismal release of the German factory data – and now ‘flirting’ again with 132.00 zone

EUR/JPY threatens seriously 132.00 area, being both in uptrend momentum and oversold

The EUR/JPY is trading nearly the 132.00 key zone the last hour, despite the fact that the US fiscal budget “jitters” continue to elevate. The cross did only made a mini pause after the release of the dismal factory data pertaining to the factory orders of the power horse of Germany. However, it soon pares its losses and is heading north gain, ready to cross again the resistance as of 132.00 area. Traders should bear into major consideration that from a technical perspective of view, the daily graph depicts clearly an uptrend momentum combined with an oversold momentum, which in plain English is very positive for the cross.

Technical Outlook on EUR/JPY

Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS feels “that many investors may be starting to see an end to the Euroland crisis. Current levels of EUR/JPY provide a good entry level for long positions if you are prepared to bet on the US avoiding the worst case fiscal debt ceiling scenario.”




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  #116  
Old 08-10-2013, 13:57
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USD/JPY continues to gain on debt ceiling speculation




FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY has been the bellwether pair of the US debt ceiling stand-off, with the yen strengthening into any fears that Congress will fail to pass a bill to extend the limit before October 17.

Today has seen the yen falling from its eight-week highs on speculation that there will be a breakthrough in the deadlock that has led to the first US government shutdown in 17 years.

But despite market sentiment, there seems to be little in the way of reassuring language coming from The Hill. Republican House Speaker John Boehner has maintained that the House will not pass a “clean” debt limit extension bill, ie. one that does not include provisions for a cut in federal spending. However, the Democrat-controlled senate will not approve anything that comes with policy riders, particularly that would delay the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has warned that congress is “playing with fire” over the debt ceiling. He will answer questions about the debt ceiling in front of the Senate Finance Committee, on Thursday, which pay present an opportunity for Republicans to ascertain areas of potential compromise.

USD/JPY has gained 0.46 percent so far today, after touching a session high of JPY97.2415.




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  #117  
Old 09-10-2013, 12:51
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AUD benefits from Yellen bounce ahead of tomorrow's job numbers




FXstreet.com (London) - AUD has rallied strongly in advance of President Obama’s nomination of Janet Yellen as the successor to US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The ultra-dovish Yellen is seen as likely to be slow in tapering the Fed’s USD85bn monthly asset purchase programme, continuing to provide cheap liquidity to the markets. Despite being a foregone conclusion since Larry Summers’ resignation from the race in September, the confirmation of Yellen’s nomination has helped to rally AUD/USD 0.32 percent to USD0.9454.

The Aussie dollar has been helped in anticipation of continuing commodity price support from the Fed.

A further temporary AUD boost could be in store tomorrow, when it is anticipated that payroll numbers will show a September increase, aided by temporary workers hired during the general election. However Australia is still struggling with unemployment at a four-year high of 5.8 percent – something that could lead to the already dovish Reserve Bank of Australia to further slash its historic low 2.5 percent benchmark rate.





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  #118  
Old 09-10-2013, 13:16
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EUR/CHF above 1.2300 as August added a more positive outlook on Germany



FXstreet.com (Athens) – The EUR/CHF broke the 1.2300 handle again, after the data released in Germany earlier showed that the power horse is gradually leaving the disappointing July numbers behind.

EUR/CHF spikes above 1.2300 as August gives a shiny outlook on Germany’s industry

The EUR/CHF has been trading steadily upwards since the opening of the Asian trading session except for a couple of hours in the mid European trading session. However, after the power horse of Euro land released data that painted a solid growth outlook – totally out of the blue – the EUR/CHF gained solid support and is now hovering again above 1.2300 handle. Being more précised, industrial production in Germany increased by 1.4% on a monthly basis from a 1.1% decline in July, while it showed that it is up 0.3% on a yearly basis.

Technical Outlook on EUR/CHF

Our personal aspect of view remains the same; will the cross manage to overcome the 1.2317 area where the 30 daily MA standing over, while also it is just above the crucial 1.2315 level of the Fibonacci retracement as of 1.2215-1.2415? We should take upon major consideration the area as of 1.2312-1.2317 as also in 1.2312 we will find the 200-daily MA. Thus, the upper trend movement should overcome the above reef levels, in order the cross to trade higher. Karen Jones, Head Technical Analyst at Commerzbank mentions that the “EUR/CHF tested and rebounded off the 1.2217 June low. Rallies are now expected to remain capped by the 1.2312 200 day ma. Note only above 1.2315 will alleviate immediate downside pressure. This leaves the market vulnerable on the downside to further losses and it targets 1.2135/32, the April lows.





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  #119  
Old 09-10-2013, 13:36
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EUR/GBP bid making fresh highs



FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP has made two attempts to the upside, reaching a high of 0.8488 on the session.

Research teams at TD Securities noted that data releases from the calendar and said, “UK data this morning were all around disappointing, with industrial and manufacturing production as well as trade data for August all notably missing expectations”….the releases knocked GBP/USD lower. The BoE tomorrow should be a non-event with no change to the policy rate or the asset purchase program…the one clear risk is that this is the month they decide to start releasing their monthly statements leaving some potential for GBP shock”. And with regards to the EZ, they said, “An upside surprise to German industrial production data was the key fundamental development in the Eurozone overnight, but did little to offset the pressure on EUR/USD from earlier in the session”.

EUR/GBP Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8406, the 50 DMA is 0.8499 and the 200 DMA is 0.8518. RSI (14) 63.84. Supports are ascending from 0.8365, 0.8376, 0.8404, 0.8424, 0.8439, 0.8463, 0.8475, 0.8488 and 0.8505.





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  #120  
Old 10-10-2013, 16:55
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NZD/USD on the up on dollar weakness



FXstreet.com (London) - The NZD/USD has climbed through the handle of 0.83 and is currently oscillating there supported in the 0.8290’s.

US jobless claims data disappointed while the ongoing concerns around the debt ceiling are heating up as we approach the deadline. Over in New Zealand, Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.3. “Delving into the components, production, employment, new orders, finished stocks and deliveries fell across the board, perhaps responding to the on going elevated NZD”, explained research teams at TD Securities.

NZD/USD Levels

The 20 DMA is 0.8283, the 50 DMA is 0.8067 and the 200 DMA is 0.8182. RSI (14) reads 56.08. Supports are ascending from 0.8130, 0.8165, 0.8194, 0.8238 and 0.8249. Spot is currently 0.8297. Resistances are 0.8310, 0.8337, 0.8352 and 0.8374.





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