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  #321  
Old 10-01-2014, 14:05
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USD/JPY bullish momentum continues ahead of non-farm payrolls





FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY continues with its bullish momentum ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers due out later today.

While the non-farm payroll numbers are a key short-term driver of the pair, the biggest directional driver remains the diverging monetary policy expectations between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Non-farm payroll optimism

Market consensus is bullish on the non-farm payroll print at 13:30 GMT, with expectations for recent momentum to continue as part of a strengthening US economic outlook. While consensus expectations are at 196k, non-farm Friday exuberance has begun pointing to a higher print. With consensus expectations high, the downside risks are ramped up for any miss.

Longer-term, the bullish momentum trade that has carried the USD/JPY pair since the Fed’s 18 December meeting remains in place. While The Fed is expected to continue to taper its monthly asset purchases – currently standing at USD75bn a month – Japan remains firmly committed to monetary expansion, buying up a current JPY7 trillion of bonds a month. Japanese officials have indicated that they are prepared to increase bond purchases in a fight against deflationary pressures.

Strong print will carry momentum

USD/JPY currently stands at a near-session high of JPY105.0155, up 0.15 percent on the day from an opening of JPY104.8255. Given already optimistic expectations, a strong non-farm payroll print may not be enough to challenge the three-and-a-half year highs recorded last week at JPY105.4415, but it will help maintain bullish USD/JPY momentum.




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  #322  
Old 10-01-2014, 15:01
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GBP/USD recovers losses following Non Farm Payrolls crash





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has performed a U-Turn today, recovering its earlier losses following the awful Non Farm Payrolls reading.

GBP/USD retraces decline following Non Farm Payrolls

Having declined sharply to post a low at 1.6379, in the aftermath of soft Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data, GBP/USD has recovered most of its losses following an abysmal Non Farm Payrolls reading which registered at 74k, against expectations of 196k, and 241k (revised) previous. Interestingly however, the US Unemployment rate declined to 6.7% from 7%. Spot is presently trading at 1.6460, close to its daily high at 1.6484.

What are today´s key GBP/USD technicals?

Hourly RSI sits at 53, with ADX at 36. The daily pivot point can be found at 1.6474, with support at 1.6448 (S1) and resistance at 1.6505 (R1). The hourly 200 SMA sits at 1.6463, alongside the daily 20 EMA at 1.6414.




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  #323  
Old 13-01-2014, 08:53
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Flash:





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that EUR/USD is in line with current CTFC positioning heading into the week.

Key Quotes

"The EUR/USD pushed higher on Friday in the wake of the disappointing US nonfarm numbers and despite the dovish overtones from the ECB on Thursday."

"Meanwhile, any further positive news flow from the periphery this week may however discourage excessive downside probes."

"In the near term, the 1.3700 resistance may hold while key psychological support at the 55-day MA (1.3614) remains in play."

"Our current view on the pair is also in line with the latest CFTC positioning numbers, with marginal net EUR longs being pared in the latest week."




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  #324  
Old 13-01-2014, 09:02
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AUD/USD driven by disappointing US data





FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD added to gains in the overnight session. The pair largely ignored Australian housing data and instead continued on the momentum of Friday’s weak US non-farm payroll numbers.

Falling in line with market expectations, November home loans gained 1.1 percent, leaving home loans up 15.3 percent on the year, with the housing sector as a whole extremely bullish on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary policy.

Non-farm payrolls driving AUD/USD bullishness

With little to surprise the markets within Australian data, the pair was instead driven by momentum from Friday’s miss in US non-farm payroll data expectations, where just 74k jobs were added in December, after November’s upwardly revised 241k print.

Stevens could play down AUD levels

Currently trading at USD0.9036, up 0.5 percent on the session, the pair is now above the level of 12 December when RBA governor Glenn Stevens talked the AUD down, saying that “85 U.S. cents would be closer to the mark than 95 cents.” With Stevens showing in the past that he is prepared to talk down AUD strength whenever it threatens deflationary pressure, the current >USD0.9000 levels should be watched for a similar move.




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  #325  
Old 13-01-2014, 10:15
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Flash: Dollar weaker following Non farm Payroll miss - BTMU





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the dollar remained weaker overnight following weak Non Farm Payroll numbers.

Key Quotes

"The US dollar has remained weaker in the Asian trading session following the release of the weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with USD/JPY having fallen to an intra-day low 103.26 today from an intra-day high of 105.40 on Friday."

"The establishment report revealed that the US economy added only 74k jobs in December which was the lowest month of jobs gains since January 2011. There were modest upward revisions to prior months adding a further 38k jobs."

"As a result employment growth averaged 182k/month in 2013 which was almost exactly the same as in 2012. Employment weakness evident in December appears to have been largely driven by the negative impact of seasonably cold and harsh weather. "

"The number of workers who said they could not go to work due to poor weather conditions in the household survey jumped to 273k in December which was the largest amount for a December since 1977. The household survey also revealed a shaper than expected fall in the unemployment rate which declined to 6.681% in December from 6.981% in November. "

"The sharper than expected drop in the unemployment rate mainly resulted from 347k people leaving the labour force while employment increased by 143k as well. The labour force participation rate continued to decline by a further 0.2 point to 62.8%."




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  #326  
Old 13-01-2014, 11:06
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Flash: USD/JPY back to 102.50? - Societe Generale





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale has pencilled into a pullback for USD/JPY to potentially reach 102.50.

Key Quotes

"The pattern in Q4 was for Treasury investors to sell into any signs of strength as the ‘great rotation' saw equity holdings boosted and bond holdings pared back."

"As I wrote on Friday, the bias from survey respondents with 10-year yields at 3% was to buy dips and chase rallies."

"Well, they chased the rally and with soft retails sales, well-behaved CPI ahead this week while secular stagnationists deluge us with their views, we just need to wait it out and see how far this goes."

"10s failed to break below 2.5% on the ‘no-taper' in October but we probably won't see the market go that far. 2.75% 10yr yields look a more realistic low between now and the next jobs number."

"Similarly, we are pencilling in 0.92 for AUD/USD and 102.50 (though the USD/JPY uptrend is supported by the 200-day moving average, and that's all the way back at 99.70)."



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  #327  
Old 13-01-2014, 12:06
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Flash: ECB dampens Euro upside - BTMU





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the ECB's forward guidance has dampened Euro upside in the near term.

Key Quotes

"The ECB’s strengthened forward guidance has likely helped dampen euro upside against the US dollar in the near-term following the release of the weaker than expected US employment report."

" The release on Friday as well of the weaker than expected UK manufacturing report for November has also helped to dampen pound upside against the US dollar. "

"The report revealed that manufacturing output growth in the UK was flat in November following a downwardly revised expansion of 0.2% in October."

"The pace of growth is somewhat weaker than implied by more buoyant surveys with the manufacturing PMI having remained at elevated since the summer."




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  #328  
Old 13-01-2014, 16:34
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EU's Dijsselbloem: European banks to fully regain health by the end of 2014




FXstreet.com (Łódź) - Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Bloomberg Television today that Europe's financial institutions are expected to regain health by the end of the year, as they make efforts to repair their balance sheets, in preparation for ECB's taking over as bank supervisor.

“The banks are now already, in advance, dealing with their problems: taking losses where necessary, finding new funding, strengthening their balance sheets,” Dijsselbloem stressed. “They’re not waiting for the actions of the ECB. Banks are going ahead and getting their act together, which will help strengthen the economic recovery in the euro zone.”

The ECB is set to kick off its role as the Eurozone banking supervisor in November this year, as part of the banking union project.





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  #329  
Old 14-01-2014, 20:14
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Flash: Too optimistic? GBP – Rabobank




FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist for Rabobank International explained that since the end of last year, UK money rate rates have softened a little.

Key Quotes:


“The tone of UK economic data recently, while still decent, has disappointed market expectations. Perhaps the market’s expectations regarding the UK recovery were becoming a little too optimistic? Market positioning suggests that sterling could be vulnerable in the coming weeks if the Bank chooses to underpin a dovish policy position”.

“Next week the minutes of the January MPC meeting are due. It is possible that these could contain a discussion which could lay the groundwork for a change in the Bank’s forward guidance. The Quarterly Inflation Report will be presented on February 12”.

“Based on the risk that the BoE will reinforce its dovish tone, we expect that sterling could suffer a setback in the coming weeks. That said, in view of the better economic data in the UK relative to the Eurozone, we still expect EUR/GBP to end the year moderately lower in the 0.81 region”.

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  #330  
Old 14-01-2014, 20:31
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Flash: AUD/USD losses the channel - Commerzbank




FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank said failure at 0.9042 will cast attention back to the 0.8822 mid December low.

Further Quotes:

“Below 0.8822 will target the base of the 2 year down channel at 0.8717 and our longer term targets are found at 0.8550 en route to 0.8068”.

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  #331  
Old 15-01-2014, 14:19
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EUR/USD breaks down 1.3600 following upbeat Empire State man. index




FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Dollar is being fueled by a stronger than expected NY Empire State manufacturing index that shows a jump in January to 12.51 pts from December figures of 2.22. It is the highest reading since May 2012.

At the moment of release, the EUR/USD was testing the 1.3600 area but the upbeat data was the catalyst to send the pair down the key level and currently it is pricing around 1.3580.

EUR/USD levels:

If the Dollar keeps its momentum and maintains the pair below the 1.3600 level, the EUR/USD would face supports at 1.3565 and 1.3550. On the upside, resistances are now at 1.3600, 1.3625 and 1.3645.

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  #332  
Old 15-01-2014, 14:26
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GBP/USD slumps to 3-week lows after US data




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD slumped to fresh lows at the beginning of the New York session after solid US data gave the greenback a boost.

The NY Empire State manufacturing index soared to its highest in 20 months in January, signaling strong expansion in the sector, while December's producer price index grew in line with expectations. The GBP/USD accelerated lower, breaking decisively below the 1.6400/1.6375 area slipping to a low of 1.6327, last seen Dec 24 2013.

GBP/USD levels to watch

At time of writing, the Cable is trading at the 1.6345 area, recording a 0.6% loss Wednesday with immediate supports at 1.6327 (Jan 15 low), 1.6320 (Dec 24 low) and 1.6300 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.6407 (20-day SMA), 1.6442 (Jan 15 high) and 1.6464 (Jan 14 high).


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  #333  
Old 16-01-2014, 12:46
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USD/CHF bounces off 200-hour SMA




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF came under pressure and fell to fresh daily lows during the European session, although it found support at the 200-hour SMA and bounced.

After failing to decisively break above the 0.9100 mark, the USD/CHF turned lower and dropped toward the 0.9060 zone before the 200-hour SMA contained the slide. At time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at the 0.9075 area, still a few pips below its opening price. Up ahead during the NY session, data includes US CPI and jobless claims.

USD/CHF levels to watch

IN terms of technical levels, the USD/CHF could find immediate resistances at the 0.9100/07 area (psychological level/Jan 15 high), 0.9126 (Jan 8 high) and 0.9150 (Nov 22 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.9060 (200-hour SMA), 0.9040 (100-hour SMA) and 0.9025 (Jan 15 low).

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  #334  
Old 16-01-2014, 14:00
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US: Consumer Price Index rises 0.3% in December




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - US consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, the US Labor Department reported Thursday, matching market's expectations and following a flat reading the previous month.

However, the Consumer Price Index grew 1.5% in the 12 months to December, also matching forecast and higher than November's 1.2% rise.

Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM in line with expectations.

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  #335  
Old 16-01-2014, 14:05
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Canada: Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian securities rises to C$8.66 billion in Nov



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Foreign investors added C$8.7 billion of Canadian securities to their holdings in November, Statistics Canada said Monday.

Meanwhile, Canadian investors acquired C$6.6 billion of foreign securities, all bonds.


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  #336  
Old 16-01-2014, 14:16
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USD/JPY drops after US data



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The dollar weakened broadly and fell to fresh lows against the yen after data showed US CPI rose modestly in December, while jobless claims edged lower last week.

Consumer prices rose 1.5% during 2013 in line with expectations but well below the 2.0% Fed's target. The USD/JPY cracked below the 104.50 zone and accelerated to a low of 104.27 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 104.35 zone, recording a 0.2% loss on the day.

USD/JPY technical levels

As for technical levels, the dollar-yen could find immediate supports at 104.27 (Jan 16 low), 104.08 (Jan 15 low) and 104.00 (100-hour SMA/psychological level). On the upside, resistances are now seen at 104.90 (Jan 16 high), 105.00 (psychological level) and 105.32 (Jan 10 high).



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  #337  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:13
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US December Housing Starts (MoM) decreases to 0.999M vs 1.107M (November)



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  #338  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:22
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USD/JPY struggles in trading above JPY104.40 without major drivers



FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY has had a mildly bullish session so far, but has struggled above JPY104.40 in the absence of any major drivers.

Building stats hit and miss

US building stats came in either side of consensus, with December building permits undershooting at 0.986m versus expectation of 1.015m. Housing starts in December came in at 0.999m, over the 0.990m expectation.

Industrial production is set for release at 14:15 GMT, with a consensus expectation of 0.3 percent versus last month’s 1.1 percent print.

FOMC expectations

With light data for the pair it is expected that it will continue its broad bullishness on diverging monetary policy expectations ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on 24-25 January. At its last meeting, the Fed moved to cut its monthly asset purchases by USD10bn. Should the Fed continue with its tapering despite the knock-back from poor non-farm payroll jobs numbers on Friday, USD/JPY could challenge the three-and-a-half year highs reached at the beginning of January at JPY105.4415.

USD/JPY is currently trading at JPY104.3150 on choppy trading, down from a session high of JPY104.4750.



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  #339  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:29
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US Capacity Utilization (December): 79.2% vs 79.1% (November)



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  #340  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:40
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US Industrial Production (MoM) down to 0.3% in December from 1% in November



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  #341  
Old 18-01-2014, 10:40
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China December House Price Index flat at 9.9%



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  #342  
Old 27-01-2014, 16:44
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Yen has increased a bit, its performing well against the dollar...
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