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Intraday Technical Analysis November

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  #1  
Old 06-11-2018, 08:07
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Default Intraday Technical Analysis November

The markets were seen trading a bit subdued on Monday as investors brace for the U.S. mid-term elections due today. On the economic front, China’s Caixin services PMI was seen easing to 50.1 which missed estimates and was slower than 53.1 registered the month before.

In the Eurozone, the Sentix investor confidence index eased to 8.8 below estimates of 9.9. The services activity in the UK measured by Markit was also weaker at 52.2 for October.

The NY trading session saw the ISM non-manufacturing PMI easing to 60.3 which was higher than expected. However, the October’s print was a tad weaker from 61.6 measured the month before.

The RBA held its monetary policy meeting earlier today. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 1.50%. The central bank is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged at least into the first half of next year.

The European trading session kicks off with the German factory orders report. Data is expected to show that German factory orders fell 0.4% on the month following a 2.0% surge previously.

Markit’s final services PMI will be coming out later in the day. The Eurozone services PMI is expected to remain steady at 53.3.

The U.S. will be heading to the polls today for the mid-term Congressional elections. This is expected to bring some volatility to the markets.

Later in the evening, the overnight session will see the release of the quarterly employment report from New Zealand.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1400): The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading subdued on Monday. Price action attempted to rally back to the previous resistance area of 1.1435 region before currently pulling back lower. The 20-period EMA is seen offering dynamic support for the moment. However, a close below the 20-period EMA could keep the EURUSD biased to the downside.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3043): The British pound was seen maintaining the gains after opening on Monday gapping higher. After a quick fill of the gap, prices resumed the upside moment. The GBPUSD is now seen trading close to the previously breached support area of 1.3086. A retest of these level as resistance could establish a wide sideways range. A close above 1.3086 is required for the GBPUSD to seek further gains.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1228.82): Gold price was seen posting a gradual descent as price action is showing signs of easing momentum. With price trading below the main resistance area of 1238, we expect the direction in gold to be to the downside. The lower untested support at 1207.00 still remains the key downside target. However, any reversals in decline to the support level could keep price action a bit volatile.
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  #2  
Old 07-11-2018, 07:51
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The markets were seen trading subdued ahead of the NY trading session as polling for the mid-term elections was underway.

Reports indicate that the Democrats are back in control of the House while the Republicans have maintained control in the Senate. With the democrats taking the majority in the house, President Trump’s policies are expected to be in check.

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From the Eurozone, the factory orders report from Germany showed a 0.3% increase which beat estimates of a 0.4% decline. The previous month’s data was also revised higher to show a 2.5% increase in factory orders.

The Eurozone’s final services PMI also rose to 53.7 beating estimates of 53.3 and up from September’s print of 53.3. Producer prices came in steady as it increased 0.5% on the month advancing from 0.4% previously.

New Zealand’s unemployment data for the third quarter surprised with better than expected results. The quarterly employment change rose 1.1% for the period ending September 2018. This beat estimates of a 0.5% increase.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% which also surpassed estimates. Earlier today, the quarterly inflation expectations data from New Zealand showed a reading of 2.0%, which was unchanged from the previous survey.

The European trading session today will see the release of the industrial production report from Germany. Economists forecast industrial production activity to decline 0.1% on the month. This is later followed by the retail sales for the Eurozone which is expected to climb 0.1% on the month.

The NY trading session will see the Ivey PMI data from Canada. The index is expected to rise to 50.9 from 50.4 previously. The overnight trading session will see the RBNZ holding its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected as the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1464): The EURUSD currency pair was seen bouncing off the 20-period EMA from the 4-hour chart. Price action is seen currently lifting off the resistance level of 1.1435. A close above this level could push the EURUSD back to testing the previously established resistance area of 1.1547 – 1.1525. However, price action could still maintain a sideways range within these levels. A breakout above 1.1547 – 1.1525 is needed in order for the common currency to establish an uptrend.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3132): The GBPUSD currency pair extended strong gains to the upside but price action is currently seen testing the previously held resistance level of 1.3086. A close above this level could potentially signal further upside gains. The next main resistance level is seen at 1.3235. However, if the currency pair fails to breakout from the resistance area, we could expect a correction to the downside. The 20-period EMA is likely to act as dynamic support, but a break down below this could accelerate the declines even further.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1229.76): Gold prices were seen posting declines, but price action is currently attempting to retrace the minor losses. Overall, gold prices have moved into a consolidatory mode. The resistance level at 1238 is likely to be tested in the near term. To the downside, the lower support at 1207 remains open for a retest. However, for this to occur, gold prices will need to post a strong decline falling below the current pivot low of 1225.75.
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  #3  
Old 08-11-2018, 08:29
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. dollar was seen trading volatile on the day as the results poured in through the early trading hours of the European session. With the Democrats claiming a majority in the U.S. House while the Republicans are retaining a majority in the Senate, speculation is rife on how the U.S. policies will be implemented going forward.
Economic data on the day covered the German industrial production which beat estimates of a flat print to rise 0.2% on the month. Previous month’s data was revised higher to show a 0.1% increase.
The NY trading session saw Canada’s Ivey PMI rising to 61.8 on the index. This beat estimates of 50.9 and advanced from 50.4 from the month before.



The overnight trading session saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holding its monetary policy meeting. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and retained its forward guidance.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the day will see the release of the German and French trade balance numbers. The economic data from the Eurozone is relatively quiet for the most part today.

The NY trading session will see Canada’s housing starts report coming out. Data is expected to show that housing starts rose 195k on the month following a print of 189k the month before. Later in the evening, the FOMC will be releasing its monetary policy statement. The Fed funds rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.0% – 2.25%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1424): The EURUSD gave up the gains from earlier this week as price action retraced back to the breakout level of the falling trend line. Currently, the price is supported by the 20-period EMA and the horizontal support area. As long as this support holds, we expect the currency pair to be biased to the upside. However, if the EURUSD slips back lower, we expect the declines to push the common currency back to the lower support level of 1.1315 – 1.1300.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3124): The GBPUSD currency pair managed to clear the resistance area of 1.3058 – 1.3132. However, price action is seen to be consolidating strongly just above this level. This could potentially signal either a continuation to the upside in which case the GBPUSD will target 1.3234. Alternately, a break down below the support level could indicate a move back to the downside which could retrace some of the gains made recently.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1229.76): The volatility in the gold prices continue as price action is seen extending the declines. The breakout from the minor rising trend line suggests that price action could extend the declines back to the previously formed lows. The support level at 1207.00 remains untested which makes this exposed for a downside correction. To the upside, the resistance area of 1238 – 1242.25 remains a key level that will likely hold the gains in the near term.
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  #4  
Old 12-11-2018, 08:21
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. dollar managed to maintain its dominance closing the week with gains. However, performance was rather mixed with the Kiwi dollar posting the strongest gains.

The UK’s quarterly GDP report showed that the economy advanced 0.6% on the quarter. This brought the annualized GDP to 2.5% for the year, marking the fastest pace of expansion in two years. Most of the GDP growth came from consumer spending, while business investment remained weak.

The ONS which released the data cautioned that growth could slow in the coming quarters.

Elsewhere, the U.S. producer prices index surged by 0.6% beating estimates of a 0.2% increase. The increase in the prices at the factory gate suggests that inflationary pressures were strongly entrenched.

The economic calendar for the day looks quiet across all trading sessions. The European trading session will see Italy’s industrial production numbers coming out.

Economists forecast that industrial production in Italy declined 0.5% on the month. This comes after industrial production rose 1.7% the month before.

The NY trading session will see the FOMC member, Daly, speaking. The speech comes after the Fed left interest rates unchanged last week.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1322): The EURUSD was seen closing bearish on Friday marking another week of losses. The common currency is seen trading near the previous lows of the 15th of August. This is an established support level. Therefore, a retest of this support level could potentially offer some upside bounce. If the EURUSD fails to post a reversal at this level, we expect to see further losses pushing the common currency to new yearly lows. To the upside, the EURUSD will need to break past the falling trend line and preferably breakout from the horizontal resistance level near 1.1435 – 1.1462.

GBPUSD intraday


GBPUSD (1.2929): The GBPUSD continued to post declines after the reversal from the resistance area of 1.3132 – 1.3086. The declines are expected to push the GBPUSD back towards the support at 1.2808. Establishing support here could potentially keep price action biased to the upside in the event that the support does not give in. Failure to hold the declines here could mark further decreases back to the previously formed lower support area around 1.2683.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1210.29): Gold prices have extended the declines sharply on Friday as price action in the precious metal touched down to 1207.00. A rebound off this level could mean some near-term upside in price. The short-term price action could see gold prices rebounding off the 1207 region to retest the resistance area of 1223.50. A retest of this level could keep gold prices trading within a range. However, we expect that the upside bias will push gold prices higher to retest the previously held resistance area of 1238.
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  #5  
Old 13-11-2018, 08:40
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The markets were seen trading reasonably quiet. Economic data on the day saw the release of Japan’s producer price index. Data showed that PPI on the year rose to 2.9%, beating estimates of 2.8%. This was, however, slower compared to 3.0% increase seen the previous month.

The European trading session was relatively quiet. Industrial production in Italy fell 0.2% which comes after a 1.7% increase in the month before.

It is a busy day ahead starting with the release of the final inflation figures from Germany. The German final CPI is expected to show a 0.2% increase on the month.



Later in the day, the UK’s ILO jobs report is due. The average earnings index in the three months to September is expected to advance 3.0%, rising from 2.7% previously. This would mark a fourth consecutive increase in wages. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.0%.

The Eurozone and the German ZEW economic sentiment report is due later and is expected to show a decline on both counts. The declines reflect the weakening sentiment in the Eurozone.

Fed member, Brainard is scheduled to speak later in the day.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1243): The EURUSD was seen extending the declines strongly on Monday as price action slipped to fresh one year lows of 1.1215. The next lower support is seen at 1.1130 which could be tested in the near term. This would mark a retest of the pending multi-year support region. On the 4-hour chart time frame, the common currency could be seen attempting to rebound to the upside. The previously breached support level at 1.1315 – 1.1300 could act as resistance keeping a lid on the gains.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2874): The GBPUSD currency pair gapped lower on the day and price action is seen extending the declines lower. The downside target of 1.2808 remains within reach as the GBPUSD could be seen testing this level in the near term. Any rebound is likely to stall near the open gap at 1.2969 level which could be filled. The 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart is also likely to act as dynamic resistance in this case.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1204.11): Gold prices were seen falling below 1204.08 level of support on Monday. However, the declines could see a short-term rebound in price. Gold prices will need to recover above 1204.08 to confirm the upside retest of 1223.50. A retest of this level for resistance is pending. Alternately, a continuation of the decline to the downside could push gold prices lower toward the next lower support at 1186.60.
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  #6  
Old 14-11-2018, 08:44
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The Euro currency was seen trading weaker with economic data and general sentiment turning negative.

The Euro slipped after comments from the ECB’s chief economist Peter Praet who struck a dovish tone on monetary policy. Mr. Praet said that the ECB was open to all options including reviving its bond purchase program.

The ECB’s chief economist said that significant monetary policy accommodation was still needed.

The ZEW economic expectations for Germany picked up slightly, but data showed that investors do not expect a strong recovery soon. The financial expectations advanced to -24.1 from -24.7 in October.

In the UK, the labor market data showed that wage growth rose 3.0% matching estimates. However, the UK’s unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% from 4.0%. The claimant count change also rose 20.2k.

Japan’s preliminary GDP data for the third-quarter released earlier today showed that the economy contracted 0.3% in the three months ending September 2018. This was weaker than the 0.7% surge witnessed in the second quarter. On an annualized basis, Japan’s GDP was seen rising just 1.2%, down from 3.0% increase in the second quarter.

In Australia, the wage price index data for the third quarter was seen rising 0.6%. This was in line with estimates and slightly higher than the revised wage price index data for the second quarter which was 0.5%. The data comes ahead of tomorrow’s monthly employment report.

The European trading session will see the release of the Q3 GDP report for Germany which is expected to show a 0.3% contraction in the economy. This is followed by French final inflation figures which are forecast to rise by 0.1% on the month.

The inflation report from the UK is forecast to show that consumer prices rose 2.5% on the year ending October 2018. This marks a slight acceleration from the previous month. Core CPI is forecast to rise 1.9%, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

The Eurozone’s third-quarter GDP report will be coming up later. Forecasts confirm that the Eurozone’s GDP advanced 0.2% in the third quarter of the year.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. Only the U.S. consumer price index data is due. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month, advancing from a 0.1% increase previously. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% from 0.1% previously.


EURUSD Technical Analysis


EURUSD (1.1290): The EURUSD closed with some modest gains on Tuesday, and the reversal comes following Monday’s declines. However, price action is seen testing the previously breached support level at 1.1315 – 1.1300. Failure to clear this resistance could keep the EURUSD biased to the downside. The resistance area is seen also falling close to the 20-period EMA which could offer further resistance. The common currency will need to clear the falling trend line to confirm the upside.


GBPUSD Technical Analysis


GBPUSD (1.2989): The GBPUSD currency pair managed to post a rebound after failing to touch down to 1.2808 level of support. The reversal saw price action filling the gap from Monday’s open. Further continued momentum could push GBPUSD back to the upside to the previously held resistance area of 1.3132 – 1.3086. Failure to clear this resistance area could keep GBPUSD trading within the said levels.


XAUUSD Technical Analysis


XAUUSD (1202.64): Gold prices extended the declines as it slipped below 1204 level of support. However, with price action closing with a doji pattern, a bullish follow through here could confirm the near-term upside. The resistance level at 1223.50 is the first target that could be tested to the upside. Alternately, if gold prices extend the declines below 1204, then the declines could push the price of the precious metal down to 1185.70 level of support.
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  #7  
Old 15-11-2018, 07:53
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. Dollar was seen attempting to regain some of the losses from the day before. The Dollar managed to post gains as data showed that consumer price index rose 0.3% on the month in October.

This was the biggest monthly gain since January this year, and it pushed the annual CPI to 2.5%. Core inflation which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose 2.1% on the year in September.

Elsewhere, data from the UK showed that consumer prices remained stable. Headline CPI rose 2.4% on the year ending October. This was the same pace of increase as the month before and was slightly below the estimate of a 2.5% increase. However, the GBP was focused on the Brexit developments. News reports revealed that the UK and the EU agreed on a draft Brexit agreement. However, it is left to be seen if the deal is acceptable by the House of Commons.


Data from the Eurozone was disappointing as Germany’s economic growth contracted. On a quarterly basis, German GDP fell 0.2% pushing the annual GDP growth rate to 1.1%. Meanwhile, Eurozone’s quarterly GDP was also weaker, rising 0.2%. This was the same pace of increase as in the second quarter of the year.

Data from Australia showed that the monthly employment change increased 32.8k. This beat estimates of 19.9k along with revisions to the previous month’s data. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% against the forecast pointing to an increase to 5.1%.

The European trading session today will see the release of the retail sales report for the month. Economists forecast that the monthly retail sales rose 0.1% after falling 0.8% previously. The trade balance figures from the Eurozone will be coming up later.

The NY trading session is marked by the release of the U.S. retail sales report. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% while core retail sales are expected to increase 0.5% on the month.

The Philly Fed manufacturing and the Empire State manufacturing index reports will be coming out later.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1340): The EURUSD currency pair managed to post a reversal following the declines earlier in the week. Price action has remained bullish for the past two daily sessions. With the Euro currency clearing the resistance area of 1.1315 – 1.1300, the EURUSD will now target the falling trend line. Clearing the trend line could potentially make way for the EURUSD to test the next main resistance area of 1.1435 – 1.1463 level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3009): The British pound was seen trading volatile on Wednesday. The volatility came amid news about the EU and the UK agreeing on a draft Brexit proposal which was later approved by the ministers. The resistance area of 1.3086 – 1.3132 remains the main obstacle for now. The GBPUSD will need to clear this level to aim for further gains. To the downside, we expect the ranging price action to continue if the resistance is not cleared.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1211.37): Gold prices bounced higher on the day as price action managed to clear the support/resistance area of 1204.08. If there is a decline, we expect the price to stall at 1204.08 where resistance can be established more firmly. To the upside, the immediate upside can be seen targeting 1223.50. Clearing this level will pave the way for further gains to the upside with the next level at 1238.00 coming into focus. If the support fails to hold the decline as 1204.08, then we expect to see consolidation continue with the risk of a downside breakout pushing prices even lower.
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Old 16-11-2018, 07:54
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. Dollar was trading mixed on Thursday. The UK and the Brexit news dominated most of the headlines. A day after the EU and the UK announced a draft deal, key members of the cabinet from British PM Theresa May resigned.

The sterling plunged over 1.8% on the news amid a new bout of uncertainty. The resignations included some high profile names such as Dominic Raab, the UK’s Brexit secretary. Retail sales were also weaker, plunging 0.5% on the month and was worse than forecast.


Elsewhere, on the economic front, data showed that U.S. retail sales posted a strong rebound in October. Headline retail sales rose 0.8% on the month beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. However, most of the gains came due to increased sales at gasoline stores. Core retail sales jumped 0.7% on the month, but excluding automobile and gasoline sales, retail sales edged just 0.3% higher.

Oil prices were seen rebounding for a second day following the past five consecutive weekly declines.

The economic calendar today will kick off with the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech. The ECB president is expected to speak at the European Banking conference in Frankfurt.

On the economic front, the Eurozone’s final inflation data for October will be coming out. Headline inflation is expected to rise 2.2% while core CPI is expected to increase 1.1% on the year ending October 2018.

Data from Canada will see the monthly manufacturing sales report. Manufacturing sales are forecast to rise 0.1% after falling 0.4% previously. The U.S. industrial production figures will be coming out later and expected to show a 0.2% increase.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1335): The EURUSD is seen gradually extending the gains. Price action is currently testing the falling trend line which is acting as resistance. A clean break above this trend line is required for the EURUSD to confirm the upside. The upside target at 1.1435 – 1.1463 will be tested in the near term. To the downside, failure to clear the trend line could keep the EURUSD poised to the downside.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2791): The pound sterling posted sharp declines and price action is seen falling back below the 1.2808 level. The sharp fall in the sterling was one of the worst since the Brexit outcome in 2016. The decline back to the level and the support area indicates that price action could remain muted in the near term. We expect the GBPUSD to maintain a sideways range within 1.2808 and 1.2683. However, this time, there is scope for the GBPUSD to fall further and test the 1.2683 level of support.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1215.17): Gold prices continue to maintain the gains, but price action is seen stalling near the previously established local highs. With the Stochastics oscillator showing a hidden bearish divergence, there is a risk of a correction to the downside. The breached resistance area of 1204.08 is likely to be tested in the near term for support if the divergence is validated. Alternately, price action could extend the gains to the upside, targeting 1223.50 level.
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Old 19-11-2018, 08:03
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The Brexit uncertainty sparked a flight to safety on Friday. Safe haven currencies, the yen, and the Swiss franc were bid higher. Dovish comments from Fed officials, Clarida, and Harker who expressed some doubt about the December rate hike kept the U.S. Dollar’s rally in check.

Gold prices also advanced strongly on the day as investors’ risk appetite waned on renewed concerns that the UK and the EU could part with no Brexit deal in hand.

The uncertainty of a no-confidence vote alongside the possibility of a second referendum also drove risk appetite lower. On the economic front, The ECB President spoke earlier in the day. He cautioned that inflation could dip in the coming months. However, the final inflation figures for October showed that headline CPI rose 2.2% annually while core inflation rose 1.1%.

Canada’s manufacturing sales was seen rising 0.2%, beating estimates of a 0.1% increase.

A slow start to the week, this Monday will see the release of the Eurozone’s current account data. This is later followed by the Eurogroup meetings. Brexit will remain in the headlines amid lack of any further economic reports on the day.

Following last week’s resignations from the cabinet on the EU and the UK Brexit draft deal, the Eurogroup meeting starts today. We can expect further headlines on Brexit to dominate the newswires.

EURUSD intraday analysis


eurusdEURUSD (1.1400): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong gains on Friday and price action eventually closed above the falling trend line. The Euro currency is seen still trading below the resistance level of 1.1435 – 1.1460. Clearing this resistance level is essential for the common currency to target the next resistance level of 1.1547 – 1.1525. To the downside, failure to break the resistance level could keep the Euro trading in a range. The lower support at 1.1315 – 1.1300 is likely to be tested. However, as long as this support holds, the common currency could be looking to push higher.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2827): The volatility in the GBPUSD currency pair continues. After price action posted strong declines off the resistance area of 1.3132 – 1.1308, the sterling plunged back to the support area. The rebound off the 1.2828 level is however expected to keep the currency pair in the range. As long as the above resistance and support levels hold, GBPUSD could remain volatile within these levels. To the downside, a close below 1.2828 could expose the downside target of 1.2683 which is pending a retest of support.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1220.00): Gold prices advanced strongly on Friday. After breaking the local high of 1213.50, gold prices closed near the resistance area of 1223.50. This resulted in a brief pullback. As long as the pullback is limited, we expect gold prices to clear the resistance level. To the downside, the recently breached local highs near 1213.50 will likely act as support. This could potentially keep gold prices biased to the downside. But a break down below this level could push the price of precious metal down to 1204.08 level.
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Old 20-11-2018, 08:05
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. Dollar extended declines on Monday. Economic data on the day was sparse. The Eurogroup meetings kicked off with focus turning to the Brexit deal. The EU’s negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier said that the EU ministers were in support of the draft accord. However, uncertainty remains with PM May and her cabinet.
The pound sterling was seen trading subdued due to this uncertainty.

The NY trading session was also relatively quiet with no significant events being released. The FOMC member, Williams was speaking yesterday. His comments were broadly positive of the U.S. economy and supported the Fed’s view for rate hikes. A contrary comment compared to the views from the Fed vice chairman, Clarida on Friday.


Earlier today the RBA released the monetary policy meeting minutes. The market reaction was muted. The RBA Governor, Lowe is scheduled to speak later this morning.

The European trading session is relatively quiet with no major releases in store. The NY trading session will see the release of the building permits and housing starts data. Building permits are forecast to rise by 1.26 million while housing starts are expected to increase by 1.23 million.

The recent slowdown in the housing market, however, exposes the risk of a weaker than expected print.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1447): The EURUSD currency pair continued to extend gains on Monday. However, price action is seen trading within the resistance level of 1.1435 – 1.1463. Failure to break out from this resistance level could potentially push the common currency lower. We expect the declines to stall near the 20-period EMA on the 4-hour time frame which could act as dynamic support. Overall, the EURUSD currency pair is likely to trade flat below the resistance level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2855): The GBPUSD is seen settling into a range as price manages to bounce off the support area of 1.2808. However, we expect the bias to remain to remain to the downside. The lower support at 1.2683 remains untested which could form the downside target if the sentiment further deteriorates. To the upside, the resistance area of 1.3086 remains as the upper range.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1222.26): Gold was trading flat on Monday as price action closed with a near doji pattern. This potentially indicates exhaustion to the rally seen last week. The 4-hour Stochastics oscillator is also pointing to a correction. This comes as price struggles near the resistance area of 1224 – 1223 region. A correction to the downside could push gold prices lower toward the initial support level of 1213.50. A break down below this level could further push gold toward the previously established resistance level of 1204.10 which could be tested for support.
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  #11  
Old 21-11-2018, 08:21
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The markets were seen trading relatively subdued heading into the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Data showed that building permits rose 1.26 million on the month matching estimates while housing starts also rose 1.23 million, matching estimates.

There was some volatility for the pound sterling. Spain announced that it would vote no against the Brexit draft citing the outstanding issue over Gibraltar. The sterling’s reaction was, however, a bit muted.


Data from the Eurozone is quiet with not many releases in store. The NY trading session will see the U.S. durable goods orders report coming out. Core durable goods orders are forecast to rise 0.4% on the month. However, headline durable goods orders are expected to fall 2.2% on the month.

Later in the day, the U.S. existing home sales report is due. Forecasts point to 5.20 million increase marking a slight gain from the month before.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1374): The EURUSD formed a bearish engulfing on the daily chart, and this coincides with the reversal off the resistance area on the 4-hour chart. The declines could potentially push the EURUSD down to 1.1315 – 1.1300 level of support. Establishing support at this level would mark a retest of the breakout level. Therefore, we could expect to see a rebound in price. This could also potentially mark an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline resistance seen at 1.1435 – 1.1460 level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2790): The GBPUSD is trading a bit subdued as price action repeatedly tests the support area of 1.2808 level. A reversal off this level could, however, keep price action range bound. To the downside, the untested support at 1.2683 is expected to be tested at some point. However, with the Stochastics in the oversold level, there is a possibility of a rebound in price action.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1220.60): Gold was consolidating near the resistance level of 1223.50 with price action briefly spiking to post a fresh two week high. However, failure to establish support has pushed the price back below the price level of 1223.50. Currently, the 4-hour 20-period EMA is seen holding the declines. However, a break below the EMA could trigger gold prices to extend declines to the temporary support at 1213.50. As long as this support holds, gold prices could attempt a rebound. Failure to hold the declines at 1213.50 could trigger further declines down to 1204.08.
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  #12  
Old 22-11-2018, 08:04
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

Trading was rather subdued on Wednesday. On the economic front, the University of Michigan report showed that sentiment eased to 97.5 in November. This marked a three-month decline.

The durable goods orders report showed a 4.4% monthly decline which was worse than the 2.2% decline that was forecast. Core durable goods orders rose just 0.1% below estimates of a 0.4% increase.

In the Eurozone, the European Commission recommended taking disciplinary action against Italy for its budget plans. The news did not have much impact on the Euro currency.

The U.S. markets are closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Elsewhere, economic data is also sparse. The European Central Bank will be releasing the meeting minutes from the recently held monetary policy meeting.

No major surprises are expected from the minutes although officials might remain cautious on inflation and economic growth.

The NY trading session will see a BoC official speaking which will be followed later by the BoC financial system review.

Later in the evening, the Bank of England monetary policy committee member Saunders is expected to speak.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1398): The EURUSD currency pair was seen drifting sideways following the test of the resistance level at 1.1435 – 1.1460 level. Price action attempted to post a modest rebound forming a lower high. We expect another attempt to test the resistance area. Failure to break the resistance could keep the common currency range bound. However, this increases the risk of a downside retest back to the support area. The retest at 1.1315 – 1.1300 could mark a test of support and the breakout from the falling trend line.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2786): The GBPUSD currency pair was consolidating near the support level of 1.2808. Price action is seen trading subdued at this level. However, the retest of the lower support level at 1.2683 is still pending. This could potentially keep the GBPUSD biased to the downside. If we see a rebound off 1.2808, then the GBPUSD is likely to be limited in its gains to the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1227.26): Gold prices were seen to be gradually extending the gains after price action managed to clear the resistance area of 1223.50 rather strongly. The close above this level signals potential rally toward 1238.00 level. This marks a retest of the resistance area. Failure to maintain the gains could, however, keep gold subdued to the downside. The initial minor support at 1213.50 remains a key level of interest. A break down below this level could trigger further declines down to 1204.00 level of support.
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  #13  
Old 23-11-2018, 08:05
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The markets were seen trading subdued on Thursday as the U.S. session was closed due to Thanksgiving holiday. The U.S. Dollar was seen trading slightly weaker. On the economic front, data was mostly quiet.

The ECB released its monetary policy meeting minutes from the October meeting. No major surprises were in store. The central bank reiterated its stance to end its QE program this end of the year.

The Eurozone consumer confidence report showed a decline to 4 from -3 a month ago.


Market sentiment for the GBP was boosted by reports that the U.K. and the European Union have agreed in principle to a Brexit deal draft.

The economic calendar is somewhat busy today. The German final quarterly GDP report is due which is expected to confirm that the economy fell 0.2% in the third quarter of the year.

This is followed by the flash manufacturing and services PMI covering, France, Germany, and the Eurozone. Overall, manufacturing and services PMI are expected to remain broadly stable.

The NY trading session will see Canada’s inflation and retail sales figures coming out. Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.1% on the month while retails sales are expected to increase 0.1% which could reverse the declines from the month before.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1415): The Euro currency maintained its lead against the greenback as the EURUSD posted modest gains. Price action has been trading rather flat below the resistance area of 1.1435 – 1.1460 level. A breakout above this level is required for the Euro to post further gains. The next upside target is sen at 1.174 – 1.1718 level. To the downside, a decline could push the EURUSD toward 1.1315 – 1.1300 level. Establishing support at this level could potentially mark a bottom in place for the EURUSD.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2882): The GBPUSD was seen turning a bit volatile on the Brexit headlines. Price action posted a strong reversal near the support area of 1.2808. However, in the medium term, we expect the sideways pattern to be maintained in the currency pair. As the lower support level is yet to be tested, we expect the GBPUSD to be at risk of testing 1.2683 level of support. To the upside, the gains are limited to the 1.3086 level of resistance.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1228.33): Gold has been gradually inching higher after clearing the minor resistance level at 1223.50. Price action is likely to continue to the upside with the target level of 1238 being tested in the near term. Alternately, any reversals are likely to see the recently breached resistance level of 1223.50 being tested. A decline below this level could push gold prices down to 1213.50 level which is pending a retest of support.
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  #14  
Old 26-11-2018, 08:19
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The German GDP was confirmed to have declined 0.2% in the third quarter, data from Destatis showed on Friday. Flash manufacturing and services PMI were also weaker. The data suggested that there is a likelihood of a further slowdown in business activity in the Eurozone.

While the U.S. markets were quiet, Canada’s monthly inflation jumped 0.3% beating estimates of a 0.1% increase. This partly reversed the 0.4% decline seen the month before. Core CPI advanced 0.4% after a flat print previously.
Retail sales for Canada showed a 0.2% increase which was better than the estimates. Core retail sales, however, rose 0.1% missing estimates.


New Zealand’s retail sales data released early Monday showed that the quarterly retail sales were flat for the third quarter. Core retail sales rose 0.4% on the quarter missing estimates of a 1.5% increase.

The EU summit was held in Brussels on Sunday. This follows last week’s EU and the UK Brexit draft deal. EU leaders unanimously agreed to the Brexit deal. The UK needs to get a parliamentary approval on the agreement before finalizing the terms.

Looking ahead, the economic data today is relatively quiet. The German Ifo business climate report is due. This is followed later in the afternoon by ECB Draghi’s speech followed the BoE Governor Carney.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1344): The EURUSD currency pair has been consolidating within the range of 1.1435 – 1.1300. The attempt to test this resistance saw price action closing lower. We expect the EURUSD currently test the lower support area around 1.1315 – 1.1300. A reversal off this support level will mark a retest of the breakout from the falling price channel. A rebound in price action could mean that the euro could once again test the resistance level. A breakout from the resistance area is required for the common currency to post further gains.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2814): The GBPUSD continues to remain volatile with price action seen consolidating around the support level of 1.2808. The lower support at 1.2683 remains untested which remains a risk to the downside. In the medium term, the GBPUSD is likely to stay range bound with the Brexit related news likely to push the currency pair around.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1224.67): Gold prices settled near the support/resistance area of 1223.50. Price action is seen showing signs of exhaustion to the upside. This could potentially increase the risk of a decline to the minor support level of 1213.55. A reversal off this support level could once again revive the bullish momentum. However, failure to hold the declines could push gold prices lower to the next support level of 1204.08. To the upside, gold prices could still be aiming for the next resistance level at 1238.00.
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  #15  
Old 27-11-2018, 08:27
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading firm, riding on the back of Trump’s comments on China. President Trump renewed his rhetoric against China as he said on Monday that he would resume the tariffs against China to 25%. The comments come ahead of the G20 summit where China and the U.S. are expected to hold further talks. Currently, the Trump administration has imposed a 10% tariff which is likely to increase as per his comments.

On the economic front, the ECB President Mario Draghi said that the Central Bank will be ending its QE program. Speaking in Brussels, the ECB President said that the recent economic data was weaker than expected. However, he said that the slowdown was only temporary.


The German Ifo business climate showed that the business sentiment eased to 102.0, which missed estimates of 102.3 and weaker than 102.9 from the month before.

The Bank of Japan released its core CPI report today. Data showed that core inflation rose 0.6% on the year in October. This was slightly better than the estimates which pointed to a 0.5% increase. The day ahead is relatively quiet with mostly second-tier data in the store.

The NY trading session will see the release of the consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. The U.S. consumer confidence is expected to ease to 136.2 following an increase to 137.9 previously. Later, Fed member Bostic will be speaking followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand releasing its financial stability report.

EURUSD intraday analysis
https://www.orbex.com/blog/wp-conten...USDH4-2711.png

EURUSD (1.1337): The EURUSD was seen trading relatively subdued with price action staying within the established range. We expect the downside to prevail as the common currency is most likely to retest the 1.1300 – 1.1315 level of support. A rebound off this level could put the bias back to the upside. A breakout of the resistance level at 1.1435 will be required to confirm the upside bias in price. To the downside, the falling trend line could act as dynamic support.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2813): Price action in GBPUSD has remained flat with prices trading firmly near the support area of 1.2808. This consolidation is likely to continue in the near term with the risk of a break down below this level. The lower support at 1.2683 will be the likely next target to the downside. To the upside, as long as the support at 1.2808 holds, GBPUSD could be attempting to push to the upside. This could expose the previously established resistance level near 1.3086 as the upside target in price.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1226.06): Gold has turned rather flat over the past few daily sessions. Price action is seen consolidating near the support/resistance area of 1223.50 for a while now. This could potentially signal a downside bias toward the 1214 level. A retest of this minor support level could renew the upside bias in gold. If gold prices break down below 1214, then we expect to see further declines pushing the precious metal down o 1204.08. For the near term, the upside momentum looks to be fading.
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  #16  
Old 28-11-2018, 08:13
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. Dollar was seen rallying to previously established highs from just a few weeks ago. The strong rally in the USD sent most of its peers back to their lows. Economic data from the Eurozone was relatively quiet for the most part.

The NY trading session saw the National House Price index falling for the sixth consecutive month. Reports showed that housing prices rose 5.5% on an annualized basis in September. This was weaker than the 5.7% increase registered in August.

The weaker NHPI report echoes similar views as existing home sales; housing starts fell sharply in September. The declines were attributed to the higher costs for borrowing.

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The Fed vice chair, Richard Clarida was speaking yesterday. He supported the Fed’s view for gradual rate hikes noting that it was appropriate for interest rates to rise as it moves closer to its optimal setting.

Looking ahead, the markets seem to a somewhat busy day today. In the overnight trading session, the RBNZ Governor Orr was speaking. The RBNZ head said that the Central Bank would ease lending restrictions from January next year while requiring higher capital requirements for banks.

The European session will see the release of the German Gfk consumer climate. Economists forecast the consumer climate to ease to 10.5 from 10.6. Meanwhile, in the NY trading session the, second revised GDP estimates will be coming out. There is an expectation for the third quarter GDP to be revised slightly higher to 3.6% from the initial estimates which showed a 3.5% increase.

The GDP report is later followed by the new home sales report which is expected to rise to 583k on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to edge higher to 16 from 15 previously.

Wrapping up the day, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell is expected to speak late in the evening.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1295): The EURUSD currency pair posted declines with price action seen falling back to the support area of 1.1315 – 1.1300. A brief drop below this level has seen the common currency clearing the support level. This could potentially expose the lows of 1.2200 that was tested in early November. The declines could stall at this level in the near term as the common currency could establish a new range. If the EURUSD manages to break past the current support area, we expect the sideways consolidation to continue.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2738): The British pound finally gave way near the support level of 1.2808 as prices slipped lower back into the major support area. We expect the declines could push the pound sterling down to the 1.2683 level of lower support. In the near term, however, price action could turn rather flat. Any reversal in price action could be seen retesting the 1.2808 level where resistance could be established.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1214.65): Gold prices extended the declines strongly after a few sessions of trading flat. The declines came as price broke past the support level at 1223.50 pushing prices lower. For the moment, the precious metal seems to be bouncing off the temporary support mentioned at 1213.50. A reversal off this level could drive gold prices back to testing the 1223.50 where resistance could be established. Alternately, a break down below 1213.50 could trigger further declines down to the 1204.08 level.
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  #17  
Old 29-11-2018, 08:52
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Default Re: Intraday Technical Analysis November

The U.S. second revised GDP estimates showed that the economy advanced 3.5% in the third quarter of the year. This marked an unchanged print from the first estimates.

New sales report disappointed as with most other housing market data. New home sales rose 544k during the month missing estimates of a 583k increase. Revisions to previous month’s data showed new home sales being revised higher to 597k.

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated speech yesterday. Powell said that the Fed funds rates were nearing the neutral level. This sent the U.S. stock markets higher. Commodities also gained as gold prices jumped on his comments. The U.S. dollar index closed 0.55% lower on the day.

Powell’s comments come after earlier in the day, President Trump expressed his displeasure at the Fed’s rate hike plans once again.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also gave his views on Brexit, which was overshawdowed by Fed Powell’s comments. Carney cautioned that in the event of a disorderly Brexit, inflationary pressures will need to be contained. The BoE would therefore act by hiking interest rates.

Carney’s comments come as the UK leaders will decide in early December on the draft Brexit deal that was approved by the EU leaders last week. The GBP rallied somewhat, largely due to a weaker greenback.

A somewhat busy day today, Switzerland will be releasing its quarterly GDP numbers. Economists forecast that GDP advanced 0.4% in the third quarter, a somewhat slower pace of increase compared to the 0.7% increase previously.

This is followed by the German preliminary inflation report for November. Consumer prices likely advanced by 0.2% on the month, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

The ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak later in the day followed by the ECB releasing the financial stability report.

The NY trading session will see the core PCE data coming out. Core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.2% on the month. This follows personal spending and income which are expected to rise 0.4% respectively.

Pending home sales data will be another data point this week on the housing markets. Pending home sales are forecast to rise by 0.8% on the month accelerating from a 0.5% increase previously.

The evening is capped off with the release of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting minutes.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1389): The EURUSD currency pair posted a strong bullish engulfing candlestick pattern yesterday. Price action is likely to test the 1.1400 level in the near term. A breakout above this level is required for the EURUSD to post further gains. This comes as the currency pair is seen posting a near inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the neckline resistance at 1.1462 – 1.1435 is breached, then the minimum upside target is seen at 1.1620.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2845): The British pound was seen briefly slipped below the 1.2808 level but price action reversed the losses. GBPUSD was seen clearing the 1.2808 level and is likely to see some upside momentum in the near term. The consolidation however is expected to be maintained. We expect another modest decline back to the 1.2808 – 1.2806 level where support could once again be established. Following a reversal at this level, the GBPUSD will be seen aiming for 1.2940 followed by a likely retest of the resistance level at 1.3086.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1225.28): Gold prices posted a strong rebound off the 1213.50 level of support. The strong rally initially met the resistance level at 1223.50 only to post a dip before breaking past this resistance level. In the near term, gold prices could maintain the momentum targeting 1242.25. To the downside, the bias is likely to change if gold posts a reversal and eases back to the 1223.50 level and then back to the 1213.50 support.
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