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Intraday Analysis September 2018

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  #1  
Old 03-09-2018, 08:45
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Default Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen gaining ground on Friday as the markets closed the month of August. Economic data on the day showed that the flash inflation estimates for the Eurozone rose at a slower pace of 2.0% on the headline and 1.0% on the core inflation rate. This was slower than the median forecasts and compared to the month before.

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German retail sales also came out weaker, falling 0.4% on the month which was more than the median forecasts. Previous month’s data was also revised lower.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. the Chicago PMI showed an increase to 63.6 on the index which beat estimates but was still lower than 65.5 from the month before.

The UoM’s consumer sentiment index was seen rising to 96.2 from 95.3 previously.

The day ahead will see the U.S. and the Canadian markets closed due to Labor Day holiday.

The UK will be releasing the manufacturing PMI which is expected to ease to 53.9 from 54.0 previously. The data from the Eurozone will be dominated by the manufacturing PMI’s.

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1599): The euro currency posted strong losses on Friday as the flash inflation estimates showed a slower pace of gain in inflation. The euro extended the declines following a brief reversal off 1.1730 resistance level. With price action closing below the first level of support at 1.1626, the common currency is expected to test the lower support at 1.1540. Establishing support here could give some upside to the currency pair. However, in the event that the euro currency slips below 1.1540, then we expect to see further declines in store.

GBPUSD intra-day analysis


GBPUSD (1.2925): The British pound gradually reversed the strong gains made last week. The British pound had jumped on the news about EU and the UK making efforts to reach the Brexit deadline in October. Price action gapped lower to retest the previously established resistance level at 1.2928. Establishing support at this level could potentially pave way for a bullish turnaround. The long-term upside target is 1.3205. However, in the event that the GBPUSD slips below the support level, we could expect to see some consolidation taking place.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1199.16): Gold prices fell to the support level at 1197.50 and price action has been trading rather flat near this level. With the minor trend line being breached, gold prices could be at risk of slipping to 1180.25 support. Forming support at this level could still keep the bias to the upside. Alternately, if gold prices manage to establish support at 1197.50 then we can expect to see the upside target of 1219.75 being tested easily.
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  #2  
Old 04-09-2018, 07:53
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The British pound slumped on Monday after renewed concerns on Brexit. The Pound sterling fell as the UK’s manufacturing PMI fell to a 25-month low. Economic data from the U.S. was sparse with the U.S. and Canadian markets closed on account of the Labor Day holiday.

The RBA held its monetary policy meeting earlier today. Interest rates were left changed as widely expected. Later in the morning, the RBA Governor Lowe is expected to speak.

The European trading session is relatively quiet today. The UK will see the inflation report hearings scheduled while Switzerland will be releasing its monthly inflation figures.

The NY trading session will see the ISM manufacturing PMI report coming out. Median estimates forecast a decline in the index to 57.6 from 58.1 in the previous month. The construction spending data is expected to rise 0.5% on the month following a 1.1% decline previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis



EURUSD (1.1600): The EURUSD was slightly bullish on Monday but trading was subdued with the U.S. markets closed. Price action, however, was seen resuming the declines earlier on Tuesday. The euro currency briefly tested the resistance level at 1.1626 before reversing the gains below the 20-period moving average. Following the previous low posted at 1.1583, a close below this low could trigger further declines. The euro currency could be seen posting declines to the 1.1540 level of support in the near term.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2860): The GBPUSD currency pair gapped lower on Monday and briefly consolidated near the 1.2928 level of support. However, price action broke below this level and the minor trend line in the process as well. The declines are expected to push the cable down to the 1.2808 level of support. A rebound off this level is likely in the short term as price action could potentially reverse the losses. In the event that the GBPUSD closes below 1.2808 support, further losses could be expected.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1199.90): Gold prices continue to consolidate above 1197.50 support. Price action is, however, pointing to a potential correction to the downside if the support fails. The descending triangle pattern also validates this view. The downside target is seen around the 1180.25 level following the breakout from the rising price channel. A correction toward the 1180.25 region could spell a retest of the support level with gold prices likely to stay in a range within 1197.50 and 1180.25.
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  #3  
Old 05-09-2018, 08:04
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar posted strong gains on Tuesday since the start of the European trading session. The USD jumped on the strong manufacturing PMI report. Data from the Eurozone was quiet.

The British pound continued to weaken as construction activity as measured by the PMI fell to 52.9. This was below forecasts and was the first decline after three consecutive months of gains.

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The NY trading session showed that the ISM’s manufacturing PMI gauge rose strongly to 61.3 in August. This beat estimates of a 57.6 forecast and a strong rebound from July’s 58.1.

Construction spending data was however slightly weaker as activity increased just 0.1% on the month which was below forecasts.

Earlier today, the quarterly GDP report from Australia showed that the economy advanced 0.9% on the second quarter. This was higher than the forecasts of a 0.7% increase. The first quarter GDP data was also revised higher to show a 1.1% increase.

The European trading session will be dominated by the services PMI reports from the Eurozone including Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. The composite services PMI for the Eurozone is expected to remain steady at 54.4, unchanged from the month before.

In the UK, services PMI is forecast to rise modestly to 53.9. This comes following July’s headline print of 53.5.

The NY trading session will see the Canadian trade balance figures coming out. Later in the day, the Bank of Canada will be holding its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the overnight cash rate which is expected to stay put at 1.50%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1595): The euro currency extended declines briefly touching down to 1.1540 on a stronger greenback. The currency pair promptly reversed the losses but closed bearish on the day. The sharp retest of the support level led to a rebound in price action which is currently capped by the 20-day moving average. A decline back to 1.1540 is expected in the near term. An expected reversal of the 20-period moving average could see price action retesting 1.1540 more firmly. Following this, we expect to see a rebound back to 1.1626 levels or even higher. To the downside, a break down below 1.1540 could trigger further declines down to 1.1366.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2861): The British pound extended the declines down to 1.2808 level of support on Tuesday. The declines came on a weaker construction PMI report. In the near term, we expect to see a retest of the support level. We expect this support to hold and a rebound off the support could trigger a potential head and shoulders pattern. The upside target is seen from Friday’s close of 1.2959. The formation of the head and shoulders pattern brings the expectation of a downside decline. GBPUSD could likely fall to 1.2671 on a successful head and shoulders formation.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1193.34): Gold prices closed bearish on Tuesday with the downside breakout likely coinciding with a steep bearish flag pattern. The next main downside target is seen at the support level of 1180.25. On the 4-hour chart, we expect to see a slight retracement back to 1197.50. Establishing resistance here could confirm the downside toward 1180.25. Alternately, if gold prices breakout above 1197.50 further gains can be expected as the bearish flag pattern would be invalidated.
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  #4  
Old 06-09-2018, 07:59
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

It was a busy day for the markets on Thursday. The U.S. dollar gave up the gains from the previous day leading to the Euro and the pound sterling posting activity on the day. The British pound was volatile after initial reports from Bloomberg showed that Germany was willing to make concessions for the UK under the Brexit deal.

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However, reports later indicated that Germany did not change its stance. However, the sterling managed to maintain the gains. Services PMI from the UK showed a better than expected print as activity measured by the index rose to 54.3 in August.

The Bank of Canada held its monetary policy meeting. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged in the backdrop of U.S. and Canada NAFTA negotiations. The BoC, however, reiterated that rate hikes would be required to prevent the economy from overheating.

The economic calendar for the day will see the release of the quarterly GDP report from Switzerland. GDP growth is forecast to rise 0.5% during the second quarter. Data from the Eurozone is quiet today with the focus shifting to the U.S. ADP payrolls report.

The median estimates point to a 195k forecast for private payrolls which is slightly lower than the 219k jobs seen the month before. The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report is expected to rise to 56.8 marking a slight increase from 55.7.

Other data includes the factory orders report and Canada’s building permits.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1632): The euro currency gained as the U.S. dollar took a breather. Economic data on Wednesday showed that the eurozone composite PMI increased in August. However, businesses were concerned about the economic outlook due to the trade wars. The Euro fell to the session lows of 1.1542 before rebounding off the support level. The currency pair tested 1.1656 region marking a retest of the minor rising trend line’s break out level. A reversal from this level would signal a decline back to 1.1540. This would, in turn, validate the head and shoulders pattern suggesting further declines to 1.1418.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2908): The cable posted moderately strong gains on Wednesday as price action rallied to spike higher to fill Friday’s close at 1.2959. Price action pulled back. Fundamentals were supportive of the jump with the news about Brexit talks and the services PMI. In the near term, we expect to see a firmer retest around 1.2959 region before the cable is expected to give up the gains. Strong support formed at 1.2808 which could be tested. We continue to watch for the head and shoulders pattern to evolve. A break down below 1.2808 could send the cable down to 1.2685 as the minimum measured downside target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1198.10): Gold prices extended modest gains on Wednesday but gave up the gains rather quickly. Price action was seen reversing around 1197.50 where resistance is seen to have been established. The downside is likely to send gold prices lower to 1180.25 level which marks a retest of the support level which previously served as resistance. Establishing support at this level could potentially prepare gold prices for a longer term corrective move to the upside.
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  #5  
Old 07-09-2018, 07:33
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen easing back on Thursday. On the economic front, the ADP private payrolls showed that private sector hiring added 163k jobs during August. This was below forecasts of 195k that was estimated.

The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI advanced to 58.5 beating estimates of 56.8. This was also an increase from July’s print of 55.6.


The economic calendar today will see the German industrial production numbers coming out. Forecasts point to a 0.3% increase on the month following last month’s decline of 0.9%.

The UK’s consumer inflation expectations report will also be coming out. The previous survey showed inflation expectations at 2.9%. The revised second-quarter GDP figures will be on the tap as well. No changes are expected to the Eurozone’s quarterly GDP growth rate of 0.4%.

A busy NY session will see the release of Canada and the U.S. unemployment figures. Canada is expected to add 5.1k jobs in August with the unemployment rate forecast to rise to 5.9%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is forecast to add 193k jobs with the unemployment rate forecast to tick lower to 3.8%. The monthly average earnings are expected to rise at a slower pace of 0.2%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1626): The euro currency closed with a doji on Thursday. Price action has become somewhat flat above the 1.1540 level of support. To the upside, the consolidation is seen just near the resistance area of 1.1656 – 1.1626 region. A breakout above this level is required in order for price action to test the next main resistance at 1.1730. To the downside, we expect the EURUSD to potentially retest the lower support at 1.1540.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2933): The British pound posted modest gains to test the 1.2950 region. The brief rally back to the unfilled gap from last week is likely to signal a decline back to the support at 1.2808. This will form a potential head and shoulders pattern. If the neckline support at 1.2808 breaks, the declines could be seen pushing the price to 1.2682 level. To the upside, if GBPUSD breaks out higher, we anticipate a test o 1.3031 marking the highs of August 30.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1201.21): Gold prices managed to post some gains on Thursday as price action rallied past the 1197.50 handle. With this level likely to turn to support, we expect further gains to push the price of the precious metal to 1219.75. In the near term, gold prices could remain flat within these two levels. A breakout above 1219.75 will likely push prices higher to the next main target of 1242.25. To the downside, we expect the support at 1183.29 to be tested.
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  #6  
Old 10-09-2018, 07:24
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar posted strong gains on Friday fuelled by strong wage growth and overall positive sentiment for the currency. The official payrolls report for the month of August showed that the U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs during the beat.

This beat estimates of a 191k forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% while the average hourly earnings doubled to rise 0.4%, beating estimates of a 0.2% increase.


On a year over year basis, average earnings rose 2.9% in August.

Canada’s jobs report was also released on Friday. Data showed that the economy shed 51.6k jobs during August with the unemployment rate rising to 6.0%.

Elsewhere, volatility spiked in the British pound once again on Brexit headlines but the cable soon eased back to give up its gains.

Earlier today, Japan released its final quarterly GDP figures. As expected, there were no revisions with the economy rising 0.7% in the second quarter. The data comes ahead of the BoJ’s meeting due the week after.

China’s inflation figures were also released. Data showed that headline CPI rose 2.3% beating estimates of a 2.1% increase. Producer prices jumped 4.1%, in line with estimates but slower than 4.6% from the month before.

Later in the day, the UK’s monthly GDP report will be released. Economists forecast a 0.2% increase on the month for August. The data is followed by industrial, manufacturing and construction output.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet for the day.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1539): The EURUSD extended declines on Friday as price action is seen testing the 1.1540 level of support. With the ECB’s monetary policy meeting due later this week, the currency pair could ease back and settle into a range ahead of Thursday’s big ticket event. The support at 1.1540 will be crucial as a break down below this level could send the common currency down to 1.1418 support. To the upside, the resistance area of 1.16656 – 1.1626 will need to be breached to post further gains.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2911): The British pound continues to remain volatile with the currency pair reacting to any report on Brexit talks. After rising to session highs of 1.3028, the currency pair fell back towards Friday’s close. We continue to watch the potential head and shoulders pattern that is evolving. A continued decline to 1.2808 neckline support and a break down below this level will trigger further selling. This could push the cable down to 1.2682 as the measured downside target.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1192.94): Gold was trading flat on Friday. Despite the previous attempt to break above 1197.50 the precious metal gradually gave up the gains. The 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart is flat indicating the sideways price action. However, the daily chart is signaling a potential bearish flag pattern. With the recent bounce failing to test new highs, the precious metal could be seen heading lower. Watch for the retest of support at 1183.30 region in the short term.
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  #7  
Old 11-09-2018, 07:22
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The UK’s GDP data released yesterday showed that the monthly gross domestic product increased 0.3% on the month. The data beat estimates of a 0.2% increase and up from 0.1% previously. However, manufacturing production fell 0.2%. Construction output surprised, rising 0.5%. The data beat estimates of a 0.4% decline.

The British pound surged strongly on the day after reports of the EU Chief negotiator’s Michel Barnier’s comments about Brexit. The U.S. dollar eased back on the Brexit developments.


The EU trading session will start with the UK’s jobs report. Economists polled expect the UK’s unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.0%, unchanged from the previous month. Average earnings are forecast to rise 2.5% over the three months ending August.

In the Eurozone, the German ZEW economic sentiment is expected to show -13.4. The NY trading session is quiet with only the wholesale inventories report coming out. Canada will be releasing the housing starts data which is expected to rise 218k.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1599): The EURUSD currency pair closed bullish on Monday on a softer greenback. The rebound in prices came after the euro currency tested the technical support at 1.1540. The upside bounce could keep price action trading within the range of 1.1730 and 1.1540. A breakout from this range will most likely establish a new change in trend. To the upside, above 1.1730 resistance, the EURUSD could be seen testing the next main resistance at 1.1920. To the downside, the lower support at 1.1400 remains within the target.

GBPUSD intraday analysis



GBPUSD (1.3038): The British pound broke out to the upside clearing the minor falling trend line and the horizontal resistance level at 1.2958. The upside bounce puts GBPUSD to the upside. We expect to see a retest of the breakout level at 1.2958. Establishing support here could trigger further gains toward 1.3205 resistance level. With price action testing the highs from August 30, we expect a correction to 1.2958. This could most likely result in a cup and handle formation. The measured target puts price action in line to test 1.3205 resistance.

XAUUSD intraday analysis



XAUUSD (1193.98): Gold prices remain trading flat with a lot of consolidation taking place around the 1197.50 level. Price action has been trading within the larger triangle pattern. The risks are equally balanced with gold prices likely to move in either direction. To the upside, the target at 1219.75 remains in question while to the downside, the declines could stall at 1183.30 level of support. The overall trend in gold prices remains to the downside for the moment.
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  #8  
Old 12-09-2018, 08:31
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The British pound managed to post some modest gains on Tuesday after data showed that average earnings increased 2.9% on the year excluding bonuses in July. The data beat estimates and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.0%.

The pound sterling was giving up the gains from Monday following Barnier’s comments about reaching a Brexit deal in the next four to six weeks. The GBP eased with lack of any follow up on the Brexit developments.

The German ZEW economic sentiment report showed the index improved to -10.6, missing estimates of a -13.5 decline.

The economic data for the day will start off with the industrial production numbers for the Eurozone. Economists polled expect industrial production to fall 0.5% on the month. This extends the previous month’s decline of 0.7%.

The NY trading session will see the U.S. producer prices index coming out. PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% on the month after a flat print previously. Core PPI is expected to also rise 0.2%.

FOMC member, Brainard will be speaking later in the day. Her comments come ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1586): The EURUSD currency pair test the resistance area of 1.1656 – 1.1626 region. Price action failed to break past this level moving back lower. We expect to see the downside continue as the common currency is expected to retest the lower support at 1.1540. The larger triangle pattern could signal a downside breakout to 1.1418 if the support at 1.1540 gives way. To the upside, the EURUSD needs to clear the resistance area convincingly in order to post further gains.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3006): The British pound failed to break the previous highs around 1.3034 and as a result established a double top pattern. We anticipate a modest pullback to the price action. The lower support at 1.2959 remains the most likely target to the downside. Establishing support here could potentially trigger a short-term uptrend upon a successful breakout of the double top pattern. This will establish the upside target to 1.3205. In the event that the support at 1.2959 fails to hold the declines, GBPUSD could be seen pushing lower and being exposed to the lower support at 1.2808.


XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1193.87): Gold prices are moving back into a consolidation phase. The 4-hour chart signals the consolidation with the triangle pattern. Price action has been hovering around the 1197.50 level for the past few weeks. The downside support is seen at 1183.30 while to the upside, the resistance level at 1219.75 remains open. However, with the strong consolidation, gold prices are expected to maintain the range. A clear breakout above 1197.50 is required for the upside target of 1219.75 to be reached while the downside support at 1183.30 could hold the declines in the near term.
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  #9  
Old 13-09-2018, 07:32
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar eased back strongly on Wednesday. The United States was seen making attempts to hold trade talks with China. On the economic front, data from the Labor Department showed that producer prices fell 0.1% in August unexpectedly. This was the first monthly decline since February 2017. Economists polled expected to see PPI rise 0.2% on the month.

Oil prices surged on a report from OPEC about rising demand and tighter supplies. Weekly inventory report from the EIA showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell 5.3 million barrels last week.


Australia’s employment data released earlier today showed that the unemployment rate was steady at 5.3%. The economy added 44k jobs during August, beating estimates of a 16.5k increase.

The day ahead is expected to be busy with the BoE and the ECB meetings lined up. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The recent uptick in wage growth and monthly GDP could bring some cheer to policy-makers.

Later in the day, the European Central Bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected and investors remain clued into the central bank’s forward guidance on interest rates.

The U.S. consumer price index data will be coming out later today. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% accelerating from 0.2% increase previously. Core CPI is expected to rise at a steady pace of 0.2%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1636): The euro currency managed to post modest gains for the third consecutive day. However, price action was seen trading rather subdued. Price action on the 4-hour chart shows the EURUSD still trading with the adjusted descending triangle pattern. With strong support established at 1.1540, we expect to see a potential upside breakout. As the common currency trades in the resistance area of 1.1656 – 1.1626, we expect a potential upside breakout above this level. However, to the downside, the EURUSD will need to break below the strong support to push lower to 1.1418.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3048): The British pound was seen struggling near the double top resistance level of 1.3034. Price action managed to slightly lift off above this level. With the BoE meeting due later today, we could expect to see some volatility. The upside is likely to see GBPUSD rally toward 1.3205 level of resistance. For this, a successful retest of the current resistance level of 1.3034 will be required. Establishing support could confirm the upside bias. To the downside, there is a risk for GBPUSD to retest the support near 1.2959.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1205.67): Gold prices lifted higher on Wednesday as price action is seen posting an upside breakout. Having cleared the 1200.00 round number resistance, we could expect further gains. In the near term, gold prices could retest the breakout level before targeting the resistance level of 1219.75. To the downside, support is seen at 1197.50 which could be tested once again.
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  #10  
Old 14-09-2018, 07:11
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The Bank of England and the ECB’s monetary policy meetings were held yesterday. Both the central banks left interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The BoE was seen preparing the markets for a no-deal Brexit. The Governor, Mark Carney will be extending his term as the central bank’s governor until 2020.



Meanwhile, the ECB’s meeting did not offer many clues. The reaction from the euro was also muted although the currency jumped following the ECB’s release of the monetary policy decision.

On the economic front, the consumer price index data for August showed that inflation advanced at a pace of 0.2% on the month. This was below estimates of a 0.3% increase. On a year over year basis, U.S inflation rate advanced 2.7% in August. This was slower than the 2.9% increase in July.

Earlier today, data from China showed that industrial production increased 6.1% on the year. Retail sales rose 9.0% beating estimates of an 8.8% increase.

The European trading session will start with the trade balance figures coming out. This is followed by the Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaking.

The NY trading session will see the release of the retail sales numbers. Headline retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4%, slightly down from 0.5% increase from the month before. Core retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5%. The data is followed by import prices and industrial production figures.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1691): The EURUSD currency pair pushed higher on Thursday. The gains came on the back of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. price action was seen breaking past the resistance area of 1.1626 – 1.1656 level. Any pullback is likely to be limited to this resistance which could act as support. This would keep the upside bias as the currency pair targets 1.1730 resistance level. In the event that EURUSD slips below failing to establish support, we could expect the ranging price action within 1.1656 – 1.1540 to continue.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3112): The GBPUSD currency pair posted a brief retest near the double top resistance level of 1.3034 before pushing higher. We expect the continued gains to keep GBPUSD on target toward 1.3205. It would be critical for the currency pair to establish a firm support at 1.3034. Failure to do so could keep the currency pair at risk of a decline back to 1.2959 level.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1204.39): Gold prices attempted to post gains but price action fell back to the trend line. However, the reversal which came from the doji near the trend line could signal continued gains. Gold prices could potentially be testing the main resistance level at 1219.75. To the downside, the support at 1197.50 could be tested. A decline below this level could switch the bias back into a sideways mode.
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  #11  
Old 17-09-2018, 07:58
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar managed to post gains on Friday reversing the losses from earlier in the week. On the economic front, the U.S. retail sales advanced 0.1% on a month over month basis. This missed estimates of a 0.4% increase. Core retail sales also slowed, rising just 0.3% on the month. Core retail sales also came in below estimates of 0.5%.

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Other data sets over the day included the import prices which declined 0.6%. Industrial production was the bright spot which advanced 0.4% on the month.

Looking ahead, the week starts off with the Eurozone’s final inflation figures. Headline CPI is expected to rise 2.0% while core CPI is forecast to increase by 1.0%.

Data from the U.S. include the Empire State manufacturing index which is expected to ease to 23.2.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1634): EURUSD closed on a bearish note on Friday practically giving up the gains notched from Thursday. By Friday’s close price action was seen closing slightly below the rising trend line. A continued decline could see price action eventually falling back to the support level of 1.1540. A breakout from the increasing trend line could potentially suggest further declines if the common currency fails the support at 1.1540.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3080): The GBPUSD currency pair gave up the gains sharply on Friday. However, as expected, a retest of the recently breached double top pattern signals further upside. If price manages to rebound near 1.3036 to form support, we could expect to see further gains pushing the cable toward 1.3205 resistance from July 26th highs. To the downside, a break down below 1.3036 could indicate price action settling back into the range. The lower support remains at 1.2808.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1195.71): Gold prices extended the declines for the second day closing bearish on Friday. The fake-out to the upside was met with quick selling as the precious metal closed back below the 1197.50 level. We expect to see the weakness lingering in gold prices remaining subdued below 1197.50 region. The downside support at 1183.30 could once again come into focus.
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  #12  
Old 18-09-2018, 07:05
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. Dollar eased back on Monday. The declines came after a renewed threat of trade tariffs. The U.S. administration announced that it would impose new tariffs of 10% on over $200 billion in goods imported from China. A further increase to 25% is expected from January.

President Trump warned that retaliatory measures from China could lead to immediate tariffs on an extra $267 billion in goods of imports.


Data from the U.S. was limited to the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The index slipped to 19 in September. This was lower than the estimates and down from 25.6 from the month before.

In the European session, the British pound posted strong gains, rising to a seven-week high. Brexit news was the primary driver. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier told reporters that the talks between the EU and the UK were being conducted in a spirit of good cooperation.

The Eurozone’s inflation data confirmed that headline CPI rose 2.0% on the year in August, as expected.

The day starts off with the ECB President Mario Draghi speaking at an event in Paris. Draghi’s speech comes in the backdrop of the recent ECB meeting where the central bank did not make any significant changes to monetary policy.

The European session is relatively quiet for the remainder of the day.

The NY trading session starts off with the manufacturing sales report from Canada. Forecast points to a 1.0% increase on the month. Later in the evening, the current account and trade balance numbers from New Zealand are due. The data comes ahead of the New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report due later in the week.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1694): The EURUSD currency pair rebounded on Monday erasing the losses from last Friday. The bounce comes following the decline to the support area of 1.1656 – 1.1626 level. Price action is now on track to test the next main resistance area at 1.1725. If this resistance level is cleared, we expect to see price action moving toward 1.1830 level as the minimum upside target.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3158): The GBPUSD currency pair extended the gains following the rebound off the 20 periods EMA on the 4-hour chart. Price action is expected to inch higher toward 1.3205 which remains the primary target for now. A retest of the resistance level here could potentially keep the cable within the range until a breakout emerges. Further gains can be anticipated on a breakout above the resistance level. To the downside, the support at 1.3036 is expected to hold.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1198.88): Gold prices inched higher only to give up the gains and retest the support level at 1197.50. Price action remains mostly muted in gold. If the support holds, then we can expect to see a rebound off the current support. This will pave the way for gold prices to extend gains toward 1219.75 which remains elusive for the moment. To the downside, a close below 1197.50 could keep gold prices extending the declines to 1183.30 support.
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  #13  
Old 19-09-2018, 08:01
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading down on Tuesday. Fresh news about the U.S. slapping China with higher tariffs was met by China responding in the same. The markets were however to the reports.

Economic data on the day was sparse.

In New Zealand, the current account data showed that the deficit increased to 3.3% of the GDP for the quarter ending June. The deficit was higher than expected.

The Bank of Japan held the monetary policy meeting earlier today. As widely expected, the central bank left the interest rate and QE unchanged at today’s meeting. The markets are currently awaiting the BoJ Governor Kuroda to speak during the press conference.

The European trading session starts off with the inflation report from the UK. Economists forecast inflation to rise 2.4% on the year in August. This marks a slight deceleration from the 2.5% increase seen the month before. Core CPI is expected to also ease to 1.8% in August from 1.9% previously.

The NY trading session will see the U.S. building permits and housing starts data. Investors will be keen to see if the slowdown in the pending and existing home sales affected the housing starts and building permits report.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1670): The EURUSD closed bearish on Tuesday after price initially rallied to intraday highs of 1.1730. Price action is seen trading within the tops of 1.1730 and 1.1626 levels. The tight range is expected to push the currency pair toward a breakout eventually. The bias remains to the upside on a successful breakout above 1.1730. To the downside, besides the horizontal support level, the rising trend line is also likely to provide dynamic support.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3149): The GBPUSD currency has been moving higher in a slightly parabolic pattern. This could trigger a downside breakout as the currency pair is seen consolidating into a rising wedge pattern. A downside breakout could push GBPUSD back to 1.3036 level of support. If the initial support fails, then we could expect a further decline down toward 1.2808. However, with the upside resistance target of 1.3205 yet to be reached, we expect the initial support to hold.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1200.58): Price action in gold remains subdued as the consolidation continues near the 1197.50 level of support. However, given the failure to post lower highs, we expect to see a turnaround in prices. To the upside, the target remains at 1219.75 while to the downside, a breakdown below 1197.50 could trigger declines to 1183.30. The trend is flat at the moment, but this could potentially change on a strong rally if the previous high at 1212.55 is breached.
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  #14  
Old 20-09-2018, 06:46
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar pulled back on Wednesday amid a slight improvement in the emerging markets. Economic data was mostly quiet from the U.S.

Consumer prices in the UK advanced 2.7% on the year ending August 2018. This beat the median forecasts of a 2.4% increase. Core CPI also advanced 2.1% beating estimates of 1.8% increase.

Data from the U.S. saw housing starts rising at a modest pace last month. Housing starts rose 9.2% in August from the month before.

New Zealand’s quarterly GDP report was released during the overnight trading session. The GDP advanced 1.0% during the three months ending June 2018. Economists were expecting a 0.8% increase during the period.

Later in the day, the Swiss National Bank will be holding its monetary policy meeting. The SNB is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting.

The UK will be releasing the retail sales figures for the month. Forecasts show a 0.2% decline in retail sales following a 0.7% increase the month before.

The NY trading session will see the release of the Philly Fed manufacturing index. Activity is expected to show the index rising to 17.5.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1678): The EURUSD currency pair was seen trading flat on Wednesday. Price action was seen stuck below 1.1730 resistance with brief attempts on an intraday basis. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD is seen trading slightly choppy as a result. The ranging price action could continue within the levels mentioned. A breakout from the range is however expected to set the direction in the trend in the near term.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3149): The GBPUSD currency pair was seen briefly testing the resistance level at 1.3205 before easing back. We expect to see a solid retest of this level once again before price action could potentially post a pullback. The retest of the support at 1.3036 is likely to form. Establishing support at this level could put GBPUSD on track to breach the current resistance level at 1.3205.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1205.52): Gold prices continue to consolidate above 1197.50 level of support. Price action remains broadly muted at this level. With gold trading above 1197.50, the sideways range is expected to continue. The upside resistance at 1219.75 is likely to cap any further gains. To the downside, we expect the support at 1197.50 to hold in the near term. A decline below this level could, however, post further losses pushing gold prices down to 1183.30 support.
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  #15  
Old 21-09-2018, 07:19
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The European trading session saw the Swiss National Bank leaving its monetary policy unchanged. The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was widely expected.

The Norges bank monetary policy meeting saw interest rates being hiked. Norway’s key interest rates now stand at 0.75% from 0.50% which marked a record low in interest rates history for Norway.

Retail sales data in the UK rose 0.3% on the month. This beat estimates of a 0.2% decline. Previous month’s retail sales were also revised higher to show a 0.9% increase.

Data from the U.S. showed existing home sales increased by 5.34 million. The data was slightly below the median estimates.

The economic calendar today will see the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI reports from the Eurozone. Data is expected to show no significant changes to the business activity in the sectors.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. Canada’s inflation data will be the significant event of the day. Headline inflation is forecast to decline by 0.1% on the month. This follows a 0.5% increase in inflation during the month before.

Retail sales reports are also due. Headline retail sales in Canada are expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.2% decline in the previous month. Core retail sales are expected to increase by 0.6% after a 0.1% decline previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1782): The EURUSD currency pair posted gains on Thursday. Price action broke past the resistance level at 1.1730 with a strong bullish candlestick. However, the gains are unlikely to hold unless there is a follow through. In the near term, the EURUSD is at risk of dipping back to 1.1730. Establishing support at this level is crucial for price action to extend gains toward 1.1960 – 1.1920 level of resistance. This is most likely going to be the next target. To the downside, failure to hold near 1.1730 could push EURUSD back to trading in its range.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3268): The GBPUSD currency pair breached past the resistance level of 1.3205. The breakout above this level is likely to see price action continue to extend the gains further. Support is expected to be established at 1.3205 following which further gains could be expected. The next primary target is seen at 1.3754 which marks a retest of the support level that previously gave way to the declines. To the downside, a drop below 1.3205 could still keep GBPUSD biased to the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1209.03): Gold prices were seen gradually inching higher. However, price action continues to remain trading subdued for the most part. The long-time consolidation at the current levels likely indicates a potential breakout to the upside. The resistance area of 1212.20 remains a key price level. A breakout above this level will trigger the ascending triangle pattern. The minimum upside target is seen at 1238.00.
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  #16  
Old 24-09-2018, 07:31
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. Dollar was seen posting gains on Friday sending most of the currencies lower toward the close. Data from the Eurozone showed that flash manufacturing and services PMI came out mixed. Flash manufacturing PMI for September was seen to be weaker at 53.3 while services PMI was in line with expectations.

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The British Pound fell on comments from PM May. Following a failed attempt to push for a favorable Brexit deal in Salzburg last week, Theresa May said that the UK and the EU were at an impasse on Brexit.

The NY trading session saw the release of the inflation data from Canada. Headline inflation dipped 0.1% as expected. The trimmed mean CPI was up 2.1% on the year. Core retail sales advanced 0.9% beating estimates of a 0.6% increase. Headline retail sales improved by 0.3% as expected.

The markets open to a quiet Monday. Economic data is sparse with Japan and China bank holidays. Most of the data is the second tier and is unlikely to impact the markets much.

The German Ifo business climate data will be coming out during the early European trading session. The recent downtick in the Eurozone’s consumer confidence could likely dent the sentiment in the German Ifo business climate as well.

Data from Canada will see the release of the wholesale sales report. No scheduled reports are coming out of the U.S. today.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1742): The EURUSD currency pair breached the resistance level of 1.1745 on Friday before easing back. With the resistance level breached, we expect price action to consolidate near this level in the short term. The bias remains to the upside as long as the previous low of 1.1650 is not taken out. We expect the euro currency to run further if support is established near 1.1745 – 1.1718.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3078): The GBPUSD extended sharp declines on Friday. The currency fell on the Brexit negotiations hitting an impasse. However, the technical bias remains to the upside. The current decreases could see the GBPUSD stall near 1.3208 where support is likely to be formed. A rebound off this level will mark a retest of the previously held resistance level. To the upside, 1.3250 will remain a key obstacle. Clearing this resistance could push GBPUSD to further gains.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1197.00): Gold prices fell sharply on Friday, but price action was contained near the 1196.00 region. The ascending triangle pattern is still valid, and we expect the rebound to push gold prices higher to 1212.20 region. A breakout above 1212.20 could trigger the ascending triangle pushing the price toward 1238.00 region which marks the minimum upside bias.
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  #17  
Old 25-09-2018, 08:40
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The markets were seen trading quietly on Monday. Following the new tariffs on China coming into effect since 24th the markets were seen to be a little spooked. This was followed through by the U.S. and China trade talks stalling for the moment.

The ECB President Mario Draghi was speaking at an economic event on Monday. He commented about the underlying inflation pressures picking up. This briefly sent the Euro higher on the day, although the common currency pulled back since.

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The German Ifo business confidence index for September was seen at 103.7. Although the index beat expectations of 103.2, it eased from August reading of 103.9.

The economic data today will start off with a speech by the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda. Later in the day, the German WPI data is due. The wholesale price index is forecast to rise 0.2% on the month after a flat print the month before.

Bank of England’s MPC member, Vlieghe will be speaking later in the day. The NY trading session is expected to remain calm. The conference board’s consumer confidence index is due later in the day.

Consumer confidence is forecast to ease to 132.2 from 133.4 previously. After this event, Richmond Fed manufacturing will be reporting. Expectations call for the index to reduce to 22 from 24 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1738): The EURUSD currency pair rallied to post intraday highs before easing back. The currency pair closed with a doji pattern near the support level of 1.1745. We expect the currency pair to consolidate near the area of 1.1745 – 1.1718 region. If the support area fails, we expect the declines to test the lower support at 1.1651. The overall bias remains to the upside, but this could change on a break down below 1.1651.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3103): The British Pound was seen posting a modest bounce only to be held back by the 20-period EMA. Price action could be seen extending the declines back to the support at 1.3028. A reversal around this level could potentially keep the upside bias intact. However, this could change if the cable slips below this support. The previously held resistance level is likely to be the target on a reversal off the support level.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1198.62): Gold prices were seen trading subdued. Price action managed to hold out near the support level offering a modest bounce in price action. Gold prices could be seen maintaining the sideways range within 1212.20 – 1196.00 region in the short term. A breakout from this level is required to establish the near-term direction. There is a risk of the precious metal failing at the support. This could push gold prices lower to 1186.15 region.
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  #18  
Old 26-09-2018, 07:39
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading subdued on Tuesday. Economic data was sparse. From the Eurozone, the German WPI was seen rising 0.3% on the month. The data beat forecasts of a 0.2% estimates.

Consumer confidence data from the U.S. was seen rising to 138.4. The data beat estimates of 132.2. This marks the highest level in 18 years. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was seen rising to 29.0 beating estimates of 22.0.

The Bank of Japan will be releasing its core CPI measure in a while. Forecasts point to a 0.6% on the year ending August. This marks a modest increase from 0.5% previously.

The economic data during the European trading session is very quiet. This puts the focus on the Fed meeting due later during the NY trading session. Investors expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting. This would bring the short-term interest rates to 2.0% – 2.25%. It also marks a third rate hike this year.

Fed officials will be releasing the staff economic projections and the dot plot which will act as a guide on where future interest rates are heading. There will also be a press conference due later with Fed Chairman, Powell.

Expect to see some volatility in the markets during the Fed announcement.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1766): The EURUSD currency pair was muted on Wednesday. Price action was muted as the currency pair as seen consolidating above the 1.1745 handle. With the resistance level looming at 1.1960 – 1.1920 the gains are likely to be capped. To the downside, the EURUSD could be seen testing the lower support at 1.1651 if the current support area of 1.1745 – 1.1718 gives way.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3179): The GBPUSD was seen posting a modest recovery after price action dipped off the 1.3250 resistance. The lower high being formed however could signal another leg to the downside. The support at 1.3028 is likely to be tested in the near term. As long as the support holds, we expect the reversal to eventually test 1.3250 followed by a breakout to the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1201.94): Gold prices were seen holding up above the 1196.10 support level. Price action is seen trading flat currently above this level. The resistance level at 1212.20 could be tested in the near term. Only a breakout above this level will trigger further gains to the upside. To the downside, a breakout below 1196.10 could trigger declines down to the 1186.14 – 1183.30 level.
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  #19  
Old 27-09-2018, 06:55
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The markets were seen trading flat through the day in anticipation of the Federal Reserve announcement. As widely expected, the Fed funds rate was hiked by 25 basis points bringing the interest rates to 2.0% – 2.25%.

The Fed, in its press conference, released the dot plot. According to the forecasts, the central bank is expected to hike interest rates one more time this year and follow through with three more rate hikes next year.

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In Sweden, the incumbent Prime Minister Stefan Lofven lost a vote of confidence, putting the political landscape into further confusion. The SEK was muted, but market watchers expect some volatility if there are talks of re-election.

The RBNZ held its monetary policy meeting during the overnight trading session. As expected, the central bank left monetary policy unchanged with the official cash rate steady at 1.75%.

The European trading session today will see the release of the ECB’s economic bulletin alongside Germany’s preliminary inflation data.

The NY trading session is expected to be busy. The durable goods orders data is planned followed by the final revised GDP figures for the second quarter. No changes are expected as the U.S. Q2 GDP is forecast to remain at 4.2%.

Later in the evening, the ECB President Mario Draghi will be speaking. This is followed by a late speech from the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1752): The EURUSD currency pair managed to hold the ground staying around the 1.1745 handle. With the support area of 1.1745 – 1.1718 holding, price action could be seen pushing gradually higher. The 4-hour Stochastics oscillator is also likely to signal a move to the upside. The common currency will need to break out above the previous highs of 1.1795 to post further gains. The next main target is seen at 1.1960 – 1.1920 level of resistance.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3155): The British pound closed with a doji pattern on Wednesday. Price action is likely to see a modest pullback in the near term. The support at 1.3028 is yet to be tested firmly in the near term. There is scope for GBPUSD to retest the previously established resistance level at 1.3250. However, a bounce of 1.3028 support is required to confirm the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1197.93): Gold prices continue to trade flat within the 1212.20 and 1196.00 levels. The downside breakout of the minor rising trend line indicates a possible decline toward the 1183.30 level of support. The direction remains flat at the moment, but we could expect to see a reversal near the lower support. Failure to hold the declines near 1183.30 could, however, turn the trend to the downside.
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  #20  
Old 28-09-2018, 07:35
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis September 2018

The U.S. dollar posted strong gains on Thursday. Solid economic data lifted the currency. Durable goods orders increased 4.5% on the month in August beating expectations of 2.0%. Durable goods orders reversed the 1.2% decline July as well.

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The final revised GDP numbers for the second quarter was also released Data showed that GDP advanced 4.2% in the three months ending June marking an unchanged print from the second estimates.

In the eurozone, the common currency dipped on news reports that the Italian coalition government agreed to a 2019 budget deficit of 2.4% of its GDP. This was a bigger target than the 1.6% that was advocated by the EU officials.

Looking ahead, the current account for the UK will be coming out during the European trading session. Forecasts point to the current report posting a 19.4 billion decline. The final second quarter revised GDP will also be published. Economists forecast no changes confirming a 0.4% growth during the period.

In the Eurozone, the inflation estimates data will be released. There are expectations that consumer prices increased slightly to 2.1% and core CPI rising 1.1% on the year ending September.

Canada will be coming out with the monthly GDP figures today with forecasts of a 0.1% increase.

Data from the U.S. will see the core PCE price index report. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is tipped to rise 0.1% on the month, marking a slower pace of increase from 0.2% previously. Personal spending and income are expected to grow by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1647): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong declines on Thursday. Price action eased back after failing to lift above the resistance level of 1.1745. The declines coincided with 1.1651 region which is currently serving as support. A rebound off this level is required to keep the bias to the upside. The EURUSD currency pair could maintain a sideways range within 1.1745 and 1.1651 level. A breakout from this level is needed to establish the next leg in the trend.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3082): The GBPUSD fell sharply following the doji close on Wednesday. The declines are expected to push the cable down to 1.3028 level of support. We expect the support level to hold following which the cable could be seen extending the gains back to 1.3250 resistance. If the currency pair falls below 1.3028, then we expect further declines to push the cable lower to 1.2808.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1184.70): Gold prices fell sharply on the day easing to 1183.30 level of support. Price action is currently consolidating near the current standards and we could anticipate a potential move to the upside. The resistance level at 1197.50 remains the target to the upside. Gold prices could maintain a sideways range within the said levels. The bias is however likely to shift to the upside in the near term, subject to the resistance level of 1197.50 giving way.
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