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Alpari.com - EUR/USD Analysis of November

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Old 23-11-2017, 20:32
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Default Alpari.com - EUR/USD Analysis of November

On Wednesday the 22nd of November, trading on the euro/dollar closed up by 81 pips at 1.18. This sharp increase was brought about by the decline in the dollar and US 10Y bond yields resulting from the publication of weak durable goods data and the FOMC minutes.

Durable goods orders fell after three months of growth. US 10Y bond yields dropped from 2.376% to 2.340%.

A lot of FOMC members support gradually increasing interest rates over the coming months so long as macroeconomic indicators stay in line with mid-term projections. On the other hand, some members are inclined to refrain from tightening monetary policy any further until they are sure that the recent growth in inflation is sustainable.

Political uncertainty in Germany didnít cause the euro to drop as I expected. The US dollarís decline together with disappointing US data stopped sellers from making any inroads. Prospects of a decline for the euro were dashed when the price exited the A-A channel. From the 45th degree, the price initially recovered to the 67th degree, making it to the 90th degree after the FOMC minutes were published.

There was also another factor at play against the dollar. Traders needed some kind of driver to help them determine which currency would be better to hold over the long weekend. The data that came has created a negative outlook for the dollar and the FOMC minutes have strengthened this outlook.

As today is the 4th Thursday in November, the US is celebrating Thanksgiving Day. American exchanges are closed today and will close early on Friday. Volumes are thin on the market, so from our current price of 1.1829, we could move up to 50 pips in either direction. Considering that traders are buying euros on the crosses and that markets are paying less attention to the German coalition talks, Iím predicting a test of the 112th degree followed by a rebound towards the lower boundary of the B-B channel. When the crosses are rising, buyers donít give up so easily.

If markets do decide to pay attention to Germany, Iíd like to see the price return to the LB balance line, which currently runs through 1.1763.
Source: https://alpari.com/en/
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Old 27-11-2017, 02:56
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Default Re: Alpari.com - EUR/USD Analysis of November

EURUSD: price caught at the 112th degree

I was expecting the euro to rise to the 112th degree with a subsequent retreat to the lower boundary of the B-B channel in the US session. The 112th degree stopped buyers in their tracks, but there was no drop to follow. In such a thin market, the pair consolidated within a narrow range around the 1.1850 mark until the session closed.

On Friday, during the Asian session, the euro dropped to the lower boundary of the B-B channel, although since yesterday, this line has moved up from 1.1824 to 1.1837. Now, Iíve decided not to make a forecast given the contradictory situation on the pair. The euro continues to get support from the crosses, so it, along with the Aussie dollar, is trading up against the US dollar, while the other majors are trading down.

Buyers have gained a foothold at the 1.1861 resistance, which is formed from the 15th of Novemberís high. Given that the US trading day will be shorter than usual and that trading activity is set to remain at low levels, I reckon weíll see a breakout of the B-B channel today. For me, the ideal situation would be a return to the LB balance line at 1.1818. Hourly cycles show the euro dropping over the next two days. The only thing propping up the euro is the crosses, and when they start to see a downwards correction, the euro will follow suit.
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Old 27-11-2017, 23:41
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Default Re: Alpari.com - EUR/USD Analysis of November

On Friday the 24th of November, trading on the euro closed up. The euro has gained 231 pips (+1.97%) against the dollar in the space of 4 days. The US dollar came under pressure after the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were published (22nd of November), as well as from weak US data and a decline in bond yields. The single currency has been bolstered by prospects of a more favourable outcome to the political crisis currently taking place in Germany as well as the positive German IFO report.

After PPI data published in Germany and some announcements from the head of the IFO, the euro rally restarted with new strength after falling short of the trend line.

Dollar bulls were disappointed by US data. The manufacturing and services PMIs for November came out lower than expected.

After Thanksgiving Day, volumes on the currency market remained low, so euro bulls managed to bring the rate up to 1.1944. The euroís growth slowed down around the U3 MA line.

In Asia, the euro crosses are trading up, meaning that the euro/dollar pair is not in decline. Taking this into account, buyers are trying to push the rate up to 1.20. I havenít been making forecasts for a few days now as the situation is ambiguous; the euro is trading against cycles and historical patterns. When the situation is unclear to me like this, I prefer to stay on the sidelines.

Since the euro closed up on Friday, Iím expecting to see movements against Fridayís today. Since todayís economic calendar is empty, the price should make it to 1.1900.

At the current bar, the balance line runs through 1.1872, below the TR1 trend line. If buyers fail to defend the TR1, we can expect the euro to drop to 1.1889 (45 degrees). Once the price reaches 1.1889, we need to keep an eye on trading volume and US bond yields. Should bond yields rise, the correction could continue to the 67th degree at 1.1862.Source: "alpari.com"
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