Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com


Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Forex Analysis


Intraday Analysis July 2018

Forex Analysis


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old 11-07-2018, 11:39
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Intraday Analysis July 2018

The UK’s first monthly GDP release by the ONS showed that the economy had advanced 0.3% on the month in June. However, the positive GDP growth report was offset by manufacturing production which rose 0.4% missing estimates of a 1.0% increase. Construction output however beat estimates, rising strongly by 2.9% on the month. Industrial production on the other hand weakened, falling 0.4%.

Data from Germany showed that the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -24.7 while the Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to -18.7.

The economic calendar today will see investors shifting focus to the BoC’s monetary policy meeting. Chances of a rate hike remain high as the economists polled expect to see the BoC raising rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting.

The BoC meeting will be concluded by the press conference. Later in the day, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney is also expected to speak. From the Federal Reserve, the FOMC member, Williams is due to speak as well.

On the economic front, the U.S. producer prices index data is expected to show a modest slowdown to 0.2% increase in both core and headline PPI for June.

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1729): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting modest declines on the day as price action remains consolidating around the 1.1730 level. The daily chart signals a hidden bearish divergence to the Stochastics which suggests a near term decline. The initial support at 1.1686 remains the first level of support that could be tested. In the event of a break down below this level, then the EURUSD could be seen testing 1.1600 level to the downside.



USDJPY (111.07): The USDJPY currency pair was seen giving up the gains as the currency pair slipped below the 111.13 level. However, price action seen currently making up for the declines. However, a retest of 111.13 is likely to occur. Failure to breakout above 111.13 could signal a move to the downside. The USDJPY currency pair could be seen settling into a range between 111.13 and 110.62 level. A breakout from this level could trigger a short term trend in the direction of the breakout.



XAUUSD (1250.82): Gold prices continued to decline following the brief retest of the 1263 resistance. The decline back to the 1247 handle invalidated the bullish flag pattern as price action returns to the familiar support level. As long as 1247 support holds, gold prices could be seen holding on. However, in the event of a break down below, the next support level is seen at 1242. A reversal off this level is required for gold prices to maintain the range within the levels.

Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-07-2018, 06:55
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Intraday Analysis 12th July 2018

The markets were seen trading in a modest risk off mode on Wednesday. This came after the U.S. administration threatened China with a fresh set of tariffs. The ongoing NATO summit in Brussels was also another cause for concern with President Trump accusing Germany being complicit with Russia over the gas pipeline proposal.

On the economic front, the data from the U.S. showed that producer prices index rose to a fresh six year high. On a month over month basis, headline PPI increased 0.3% while core PPI which excludes food and energy prices gained 0.2%.

Driving PPI higher was another month of strong gains from the energy prices.

The Bank of Canada held its monetary policy meeting where it raised rates by 25 basis points to bring Canada’s interest rates to 1.50%. The BoC also signaled that there was room for further rate hikes.

The European trading session today will kick off with the release of the German and French final inflation figures. According to the preliminary inflation reports headline CPI is expected to rise 0.1% respectively.

Later in the day, the ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes cover the June ECB meeting where policy makers announced a taper to the QE program and an exit from QE by December 2018.

The U.S. trading session will see the release of the monthly consumer price index data. Economists forecast that headline CPI is expected to rise 0.2% on the month while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% on the month as well.



EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1674): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting declines yesterday. Price action fell to a four day low following a reversal off the resistance level. On the 4-hour chart, the close below the previously established support level indicates further declines might be in store. However, the Stochastics oscillator is currently in the oversold level and indicating a hidden bearish divergence. A reversal near the current levels could push the EURUSD back toward testing the next resistance level at 1.1846 – 1.1824.

USDJPY intra-day analysis




USDJPY (112.28): The USDJPY currency pair was seen maintaining the bullish trend as price action is currently testing the highs near 112.00. The breakout comes as the USDJPY managed to close above a multi-year falling trend line. Price action at the current levels coincides with a minor resistance level that is being tested. A reversal off this level could keep USDJPY within the range of the trend line and the horizontal resistance level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1242.25): Gold prices posted strong declines on the day on Wednesday. Price action was seen falling to the lows of 1242 level of support. However, the rebound off this level is expected as price action touches the previously established lows. The decline to the support level also coincides with a retest of the falling trend line as well. A daily close above 1247 could potentially trigger an upside rally in prices. The longer term resistance level is seen at 1282 which could be tested in the medium term.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 13-07-2018, 07:55
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading flat on Thursday. This came despite data showing that consumer prices in the U.S. surged to a six year high. Headline inflation rate was seen rising 2.9% on an annual basis. Core inflation that excludes the volatile food and energy prices were seen rising at a slower pace of 2.3%.

The ECB released its monetary policy meeting minutes. The minutes showed that officials left the question of QE extension as still an option. Officials were also concerned about the risks in the financial markets and the rising threats from protectionist policies.

The economic calendar for the day is slow as the markets head into the week. Data today includes the release of the Swiss PPI figures. The BoE’s MPC member, Cunliffe is expected to speak over the day.

The NY trading session will see the release of the U.S. import prices. Economists polled forecast that import prices increased 0.1% on the month. Later in the afternoon, the University of Michigan will be releasing the consumer sentiment and the inflation expectations report.

Have you read our analysis looking at how there may be some significant sell-offs across the indices? Check it out!

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1665): The EURUSD currency pair was seen closing with a doji pattern on Thursday. Following this, price action is likely to head either way. To the upside, a bullish close above 1.1730 could trigger a rebound in prices while to the downside; a bearish close could push the EURUSD down to 1.1540 level of support. On the 4-hour chart, the hidden bearish divergence signals a potential move to the upside. For this, price action will need to close convincingly above the 1.1686 price level to confirm the move toward 1.1846 – 1.1824 level of resistance.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.62): The USDJPY currency pair was seen maintaining the strong gains for the most part of the week. However, the momentum looks to have flattened out and we could expect to see a short term correction. To the downside, the recently breached resistance at 112.28 is expected to turn to support. Failure to hold this level could trigger further declines in USDJPY back toward the 111.13 region.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1246.41): Gold prices attempted to post some gains but price action was seen stalling near the 1247 handle. We expect to see some consolidation taking place at this level. There is however a strong risk that gold price could slip back below the 1242 region. To the upside, price action will need to breakout from the larger descending triangle pattern. This could push gold prices toward the 1258 region. For the momentum, the double bottom and the bullish divergence on the daily chart indicate a possible move to the upside.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 16-07-2018, 07:39
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen posting gains on Friday as price action remained strong toward the close of the week. The economic data was quiet for the most part. Switzerland’s PPI figures released earlier in the day showed a 0.2% increase on the month as expected.

The U.S. import prices fell 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.1% increase instead. Previous month’s data was revised higher to 0.9%.

Earlier in the day, China’s GDP report showed that the economy advanced 6.7% matching estimates. Industrial production was however weaker, rising just 6.0% and falling short of the 6.5% forecast.

The economic data for the day includes the U.S. retail sales figures. Economists forecast that headline retail sales increased 0.4% on the month. This marks a slower pace of increased compared to the 0.8% gain seen the month before. Core retail sales are also forecast to rise 0.4%.

New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1683): The EURUSD was seen falling to a fresh 10-day low on Friday as price action touched 1.1608 on the day. However, the intraday declines recovered as the currency pair managed to close slightly bullish. Price action was seen closing near 1.1695 on Friday’s close which marks the previously breached support level. A rebound off this level is required in order to confirm the upside in prices. If the EURUSD posts a reversal near this price level we expect to see further declines that could send the common currency falling toward 1.1600 region.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.48): The USDJPY currency pair rallied to a six month high on Friday before giving up the gains. Price action quickly reversed back to 112.28 level. As long as this minor support holds, the currency pair could be seen consolidating at the currency levels. In the event of a break down below this level, then USDJPY could extend the losses toward the next lower support at 111.13. However, the major falling trend line is expected to act as dynamic support in the short term.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1243.21): Gold prices were seen posting declines on the day as price touched fresh intraday lows of 1240.81. The recovery in the declines saw gold prices trading back near the price level of 1242. A breakout above this level is required to confirm the upside momentum that could be building up. Failure to close above 1247 could however trigger further gains that could push the price of spot gold toward the 1258 handle. To the downside, we expect to see price action consolidating at the current levels.

Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 17-07-2018, 07:38
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading mixed on Monday. Economic data was supportive of the greenback. The U.S. retail sales report showed that headline retail sales increased 0.5% on the month while core retail sales rose 0.4%.

The U.S. Empire State Manufacturing index was seen rising to 22.6 on the index, up from 20.3 which was forecast but lower than 25.0 from the previous report.

In the overnight trading session, the quarterly inflation report from New Zealand showed that consumer prices advanced at a pace of 1.5% annually. On a quarterly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.5% increase.

Looking ahead, the BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak today. His speech comes ahead of the monthly labor market report. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% while wage growth is forecast to rise at a steady pace of 2.5%.

The NY trading session will see the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress. Investors will be looking to see if the Fed Chair maintains his hawkish views on the economy. The U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization rate is also expected to be released.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1719): The euro was seen extending the gains on Monday against the U.S. dollar. Despite a strong patch of economic releases, the euro managed to rise to intraday highs of 1.1725. Price action has now cleared the support/resistance level of 1.1686. This is expected to keep the bias to the upside. Any dips are likely to stall back near the 1.1686 level. The currency pair is now likely to attempt to rally toward the next main resistance level at 1.1960 – 1.1920 level.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.35): The USDJPY currency pair was seen testing the price level near 112.28. The 4-hour Stochastics is pointing to a hidden bullish divergence. However, failure to break past the previous highs established at 112.71 could however signal a potential move to the downside. The break down below 112.28 could trigger further declines to 111.13 level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1241.67): Gold prices continue to consolidate below 1242.25 level of support. With the currency pair failing to make fresh lows, price action is likely poised for an upside breakout. The price level of 1247 – 1242.25 could potentially offer some short-term resistance. However, a breakout above this region could trigger further gains that could push gold prices to test the 1258.21 level in the next leg to the upside.

TradingGold
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 18-07-2018, 08:17
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen posting strong gains on Tuesday. The rebound came amid the U.S. industrial production rising 0.6% on the month. The Fed Chair Powell started his two-day testimony to the U.S. Congress. In his testimony, the Fed Chair maintained the hawkish rhetoric that the central bank should continue tightening monetary policy.

Elsewhere, the UK’s monthly jobs data showed that the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% while the average earnings increased 2.5% matching estimates but slower than a revised 2.6% from the previous three months.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics will be releasing the inflation report today. Economists forecast that consumer prices accelerated at a pace of 2.6% annually in June. This marks a slight increase from 2.4% seen the month before.

Core inflation rate is expected to rise 2.1%, the same pace as the month before. Data from the Eurozone will see the final inflation figures. Headline consumer prices are expected to rise 2.0% while core inflation rate is tipped to rise at a pace of 1.0%.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to continue with his second day of testimony to congress.

What is your knowledge like on economic data releases and how they affect the market? Learn more!

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1654): The EURUSD currency pair was seen stalling near the resistance level of 1.1730 and turned lower on the day on Tuesday. Price action was seen giving up the gains made from Monday and the daily chart’s bearish engulfing pattern is likely to suggest some downside. On the 4-hour chart, the declines could push the EURUSD currency pair lower toward 1.1600 level where support could be formed. However, with the Stochastics on the 4-hour chart turning to the oversold level, we could expect to see a reversal in the currency pair.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.93): The USDJPY currency pair was seen rebounding off the support level at 112.28 and rallied to fresh highs on Wednesday. Price action however remains doubtful near the current top with the Stochastics on the 4-hour chart posting a lower high. Another leg in the decline is expected. The sharp gains in the currency pair could see a minor correction back to 112.28. In the event that this level fails to hold the declines, we could expect to see steeper correction toward 111.13.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1228.01): Gold prices were seen falling to a fresh 12-month low on Tuesday. Price action is currently consolidating after slipping to lows of 1226.14. Further declines could push the price of the precious metal down to 1219 level which is another major support level that could be tested. To the upside, any gains are likely to be limited to the 1242 handle.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 19-07-2018, 09:15
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

Daily Forex Market Preview, 19/07/2018

Data from the UK saw the release of the inflation figures. Consumer prices in the UK were seen rising at a slower than expected pace of 2.4%. The median forecasts expected a print of 2.6%. Core inflation was also seen slowing, rising at a pace of 1.9%.

In the Eurozone, headline inflation increased by 2.0% as estimated by the preliminary inflation report but core inflation rate was seen rising at a pace of 0.9%, which was slower than the preliminary estimates of 1.0%.
Data from the U.S. showed that building permits increased 1.27 million missing estimates of 1.33 million while housing starts also moderated at a pace of 1.17 million.

Earlier in the day, Australia’s jobs report showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 5.4%. The employment change surged, rising 50.9k during the month, beating estimates of 16.7k.

Looking ahead, the UK’s retail sales figures are expected later today. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% on the month. This marks a slowdown following a 1.3% increase the month before.

In the U.S. trading session, the Philly Fed Manufacturing index is expected to rise to 21.6. FOMC member Quarles will be speaking later in the afternoon.


EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1650): The common currency was seen falling to intraday lows of 1.1606 before recovering toward the end of the day. The EURUSD closed on a bearish note and the consolidation near the 1.1606 level continues. The main resistance level is seen at 1.1730 and the currency pair is expected to maintain its range within these levels. A breakout above 1.1730 resistance could signal near-term gains toward 1.1846 – 1.1824 in the short term.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.71): The USDJPY currency pair was seen easing back following the rally toward the 113.11 handle. Price action on the daily chart closed with a doji which comes near the top end of the rally. A bearish close today could potentially signal a near-term pullback in prices. Support at 112.28 remains the key level of interest in the short term. A breakout below this level could signal further declines to the next main support level seen at 111.13.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1224.43): Gold prices were seen extending the losses on the day as price action fell just short of the 1219.74 level of support. Despite pulling back to close the day flat, early trading today suggests a renewed decline in price action. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart indicates a higher low which could signal a near-term rally to the upside. Gold prices are expected to pull back toward 1242.25 level where resistance is likely to keep a lid on the gains.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 20-07-2018, 08:51
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/07/2018

The U.S. dollar was trading mixed on Thursday. After initially posting strong gains, the greenback eased towards the close of the day. Economic data showed that UK's retail sales fell 0.5% on the month missing estimates of a 0.1% increase. In the U.S., the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 25.7 on the index-beating estimates of 21.6.

The economic data for the day ahead will see the release of the German PPI figures. Economists forecast that producer prices rose 0.3% on the month, marking a slower pace of increase compared to 0.5% registered the month before.

In the NY trading session, Canada will be releasing its inflation and retail sales figures. Headline inflation rate as measured by CPI is expected to advance 0.1% on the month, marking the same pace of increase as the month before. Retail sales are tipped to rise 1.0% on the month following a 1.2% decline the month before. Core retail sales are expected to advance 0.6% after posting a 0.1% decline in the previous month.

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1650): The EURUSD currency pair drifted lower on Thursday as price action touched intraday lows of 1.1575. However, the currency pair managed to recover to close slightly higher from the open. The consolidation in the currency pair is expected to continue and the rebound off 1.1600 is expected to keep price action supported to the upside in the near term. The resistance at 1.1686 could be tested in the near term. A break above this level is required in order to ascertain the upside bias in the near term.

USDJPY intra-day analysis



USDJPY (112.38): The USDJPY currency pair fell briefly below 112.28 support before recovering back. The rebound of this level failed to see the currency pair make any major gains. Therefore, we expect to see the U.S. dollar extending the declines against the yen. A break down below 112.28 could signal a near-term decline to the lower support at 111.13 - 110.85 regions. In the near-term, the currency pair could be seen maintaining a sideways range within the levels.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1219.86): Gold prices continued to extend the declines as price action slipped below the 1219 region. The doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart was followed by a bullish close. While price action managed to pull back from the lows, the current gains could see a move to the upside. Gold prices could be seen rallying to 1242 level of support where resistance is likely to be established. To the downside, failure to clear the 1219 region could signal further declines in gold prices which could push the price of the precious metal lower to 1200.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 23-07-2018, 08:15
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

USD slips after Trump’s comments on Friday

Daily Forex Market Preview, 23/07/2018

The U.S. dollar was seen weakening on Friday after the U.S. President Trump commented about the currency's strength. Trump said that China and the EU, among other countries were manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower. In contrast, he said that the U.S. was hiking interest rates while the dollar gets stronger with each passing day.

Earlier last week, Trump also expressed his views about the Federal Reserve, noting that the central bank should stop tightening monetary policy.

Economic data from Friday revealed that Canada's inflation rate advanced 1.4%, beating estimates of a 0.6% increase.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day is relatively quiet. The U.S. existing home sales report is due today with forecasts showing an increase of 5.46 million. In the Eurozone, the consumer confidence report is expected to remain unchanged at -1.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.1728): The EURUSD currency pair was seen closing near the previous resistance level of 1.1730 on Friday before slightly pulling back. The currency pair is expected to breakout from this resistance level in the near term if the bullish momentum continues. To the upside, the common currency could be seen extending the gains toward the next main resistance level of 1.1960 - 1.1920 level. On the 4-hour chart time frame, price action continues to remain trading sideways. The breach of the minor support/resistance level suggests a pull-back to 1.1686 ahead of further gains.


USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (110.91): The USDJPY extended strong losses on Friday as anticipated. The break down below the 112.28 level saw price action posting strong declines as a result. Friday's price action saw prices testing the major falling trend line that was breached. This is likely to act as a dynamic support in the near term. A break down below this level is required which could push the currency pair lower to the next main support at 111.13 - 110.85 level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1231.96): Gold prices were seen extending the gains after the doji pattern that was formed last week. After a modest period of consolidation near the 1219 level, gold prices eventually broke back into the falling price channel. With the 4-hour chart signaling a possible hidden bearish divergence, we expect price action to push lower. However, the declines are likely to be limited. To the upside, the major resistance level at 1242 - 1247 is likely to be the upside target.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 24-07-2018, 08:18
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

Daily Forex Market Preview, 24/07/2018

The U.S. dollar was seen managing to stabilize on Monday. Economic data was sparse. In the NY trading session, the existing home sales report showed a decline to 5.38 million. This was slower than the forecasts of 5.44 million.

The previous month’s data was revised to 5.41 million and the report marked a third consecutive month of decline in existing home sales.

The economic calendar today will see the release of the flash services and manufacturing PMI figures from Markit covering the Eurozone and the U.S.

Activity in the Eurozone is expected to show a broadly unchanged picture while in the United States, activity in the manufacturing and services sector is expected to show a slight moderation from the previous month's increase.

The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index will be coming out later with forecasts pointing to a decline in the index from 20 last month to 18.


EURUSD intra-day analysis****



EURUSD (1.1688): The EURUSD currency pair was seen easing back from the resistance level of 1.1730 on Monday. Price action retraced some of the gains made from Friday. On the 4-hour chart, the minor support is seen at 1.1686 level. As price action is seen testing this level, a rebound of this support is required to keep prices floated to the upside. Failure to hold the support could trigger a decline back to 1.1600 level.

USDJPY intra-day analysis



USDJPY (111.30): The USDJPY currency pair extended losses as price action was seen trading near the support region of 111.13 - 110.85. The consolidation at this level could see the declines continuing to extend lower. A breakdown below the support could push USDJPY lower with the next support seen at 109.45. To the upside, price action is seen struggling to breakout to the upside after breaching the trend line. Any gains are likely to stall back bear the 112.28 resistance provided USDJPY breaks past the previous local highs.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1222.14): Gold prices posted a modest rally but price action was seen easing back again. As gold prices approach the support level of 1219, we could anticipate a possible bottom in the making. Failure to reverse around this level will see further losses being extended. To the upside, price action will need to break past the previously established highs in order to rise to the resistance level at 1242.25.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 25-07-2018, 07:25
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was seen trading rather mixed on Tuesday. Economic data was sparse. The commodity-linked currencies got a boost after reports of China’s new spending plans were released.

In the overnight trading session, the Australian inflation report showed that consumer prices advanced 0.4% on the month. This was the same pace of increase seen the month before. The trimmed mean CPI increased 0.5% on the quarter, matching the median forecasts.

On an annualized basis, inflation in Australia was seen rising 2.1%, just shy of the 2.2% increase that was forecast.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day is relatively light. The NY trading session will see the release of the new home sales report. New home sales are forecast to rise 671k during the month. This marks a slower pace of increase compared to 689k in the previous month.

The data comes following a weaker existing home sales report.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1678): The EURUSD currency pair was seen closing with a doji pattern following Monday’s reversal of the resistance level near 1.1730. A bearish follow through on the day could potentially push the common currency lower. Price action is seen consolidating around the short-term support/resistance level near 1.1686 region. To the downside, we could expect a decline back to 1.1600 level. A break down below this level could trigger further declines toward 1.1540 region. With the ECB meeting coming up tomorrow, the EURUSD is likely to remain subdued.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (111.29): The USDJPY currency pair was seen bouncing off the support level at 111.13 – 110.85 region. The brief rebound off this level was met with resistance from the falling trend line. The failure to break above the trend line indicates further consolidation. This also improves the prospects of a downside breakout. A close below 110.85 could send the U.S. dollar lower toward the 109.45 level of support. This will also validate the bearish flag pattern that is likely to emerge.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1224.17): Gold prices were seen trading subdued as price action continues to remain support above the 1219 level. We expect to see this sideways pattern continue ahead of a potential breakout. To the upside, the resistance level at 1247 – 1242 remains a prime target. Establishing resistance here could, however, keep gold prices range bound within the current levels. To the downside, in the event of a break down below 1219, we expect to see the declines sending gold prices lower to test the 1200 level.



TradingGold Disclaimer:
This material is intended for marketing/information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing; an attempt of solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and does not constitute investment advice or research. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. The Trade Ideas are provided independently by an external third party company, PIA First Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority FRN 787261 to provide regulated products and services including Investment Advice. Registered in England & Wales, company number 07428345. Registered Office: Kemp House, 152 City Road, London EC1V 2NX. VAT number 153 646014. Copyright © 2018.

ORBEX does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation, Readers should consider the possibility that they may incur losses. ORBEX makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any employee of ORBEX, a third party or otherwise. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of ORBEX. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without the prior permission of ORBEX.

This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. All expressions of opinion are subject to change.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 26-07-2018, 07:25
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The euro currency posted gains toward the close of business on Wednesday. The gains came after the U.S. and the Eurozone reached an agreement on industrial tariffs. The agreement came as the U.S. President Trump met with Juncker from the EU.

Economic data on the day saw the U.S. new home sales rising 631k on the month. This was lower than the forecasts.

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will remain the key event for the day amid lack of any other fundamentals. No changes are expected from the central bank at this week’s meeting. Still, investors will be sifting through the data for clues on the forward guidance.

The ECB President, Mario Draghi is expected to maintain the status quo. Today’s meeting comes just after the ECB announced its QE tapering plans at the last month’s monetary policy meeting. The recent downtick in core inflation is expected to keep policymakers taking a cautious approach.

Elsewhere, the U.S. durable goods report will be coming out. The median forecasts point to a 0.5% increase on the core durable goods orders while headline durable goods are expected to rise 3.0% on the month.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1733): The EURUSD closed with modest gains by Wednesday’s close as price action closed back near the daily resistance level of 1.1730. With price still at the resistance, a breakout off this level is required to maintain the upside. The daily chart is showing the consolidation shaping into a triangle pattern. On the 4-hour chart price action is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a minor neckline forming at 1.1742. A breakout above this level is required to push the currency pair toward the 1.1846 – 1.1824 level of resistance in the near term. Alternately, failure to break past the neckline resistance could push the currency pair back to 1.1688.

USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (110.79): The USDJPY currency pair was seen closing lower on Wednesday. Price action broke past the minor bearish flag pattern clearing the support level at 111.13 – 110.85. Further declines could be triggered on the downside momentum. The lower support at 109.45 forms the next main target. However, in the event of a rebound to the upside, USDJPY will need to reclaim the level above 111.13. This will keep the currency pair trading back within the range of 112.28 level of resistance.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1231.48): Gold prices were seen moving higher but overall price action remains subdued. The precious metal is expected to maintain the range within 1242 resistance and 1219 support. Further gains or declines are likely to be maintained on a breakout off this range. The bias remains to the upside if price action can break past the resistance level of 1247 – 1242 region. To the downside, a close below 1219 could see further declines pushing the precious metal down to 1200 level of support.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 27-07-2018, 07:21
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The ECB’s monetary policy meeting was uneventful as the central bank left interest rates and QE unchanged. The ECB president Mario Draghi stuck to the comments from the June meeting. Although the ECB did not surprise the markets, the euro was seen posting strong losses on the day.

The common currency fell 0.73% against the U.S. dollar. Gold managed to post strong gains on the day rising 0.59% by Thursday’s close.

From the overnight trading session, data from Japan showed that Tokyo core CPI advanced 0.8% on the year beating estimates of a 0.7% increase.

In Australia, the producer prices were seen rising 0.3% on the quarter ending June 2018. This was below estimates of a 0.5% increase and marked a slower pace of increase compared to the first quarter’s print of 0.5%

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the release of the German import prices and French consumer spending details. In the NY trading session, the U.S. department of commerce will be releasing the advance GDP report for the second quarter. Estimates show that the U.S. economy grew at a pace of 4.1% in the second quarter ending June 2018. This comes following a 2.2% increase in the first quarter.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1650): The euro currency posted strong losses on the day after the ECB’s meeting. The declines came as the currency pair failed to clear the resistance level of 1.1730 resulting in a bearish candlestick being formed. Price action however remains trading sideways in the long term bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, the declines look to have stalled for the momentum. A bullish follow through is required as the EURUSD could potentially be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline resistance is formed at 1.1742. A breakout above this level will trigger gains to 1.1824 – 1.1846 level. Alternately, a close below the previous lows at 1.1584 could however invalidate the bullish view.

USDJPY intra-day analysis



USDJPY (110.98): The USDJPY was seen trading somewhat flat on the day as price action managed to post a minor bounce. This brief retracement was met with the resistance level at 111.13 before the currency pair is starting to give up the modest gains. A close below the previous low at 110.71 is required in order to confirm the downside bias. This would also validate the bearish flag pattern and set USDJPY on stage for further declines. The support at 109.45 remains a key level of interest to the downside. The bearish flag pattern projects the minimum price target around this level.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1228.15): Gold prices continue to consolidate around the 1225 – 1219 levels. However, on the 4-hour chart, the ascending triangle pattern is signaling a potential upside breakout. With the resistance level formed at 1235 region and the minor rising trend line that is holding the higher lows being formed, a potential upside breakout could trigger gains toward the 1250 handle. To the downside, a breakout from the rising trend line could send gold prices to test the horizontal support formed at 1219.

Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 30-07-2018, 06:56
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

The U.S. dollar was trading mixed on Friday despite a higher GDP report for the second quarter.

The U.S. department of commerce released the preliminary GDP report for the second quarter. As expected, the GDP in the second quarter advanced at a pace of 4.1%. It was however slightly lower than the 4.2% forecast. The data marked the strongest pace of GDP growth since Q3 of 2014.

Earlier in the day, the flash GDP reports from France showed that the economy advanced at a slower pace of just 0.2% on the quarter. This was below estimates of a 0.3% increase.

Looking ahead, the economic data today will see the release of the German preliminary inflation report. Forecasts point to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation on a month over month basis.

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1653): The EURUSD was seen posting modest gains on Friday. The EURUSD remains trading within a range and following the close below the support/resistance level of 1.1686, we expect further declines. The lower support at 1.1540 remains a key level of interest in the near term. Any retracements in the short term could stall back near 1.1686 level where resistance could be established. Any gains can be expected only on a close above 1.1686 which would target the next resistance level at 1.1742.

Does your trading knowledge measure up? Check out our Learn Forex Basics!

USDJPY intra-day analysis



USDJPY (111.16): The USDJPY currency pair has been consolidating strongly near the support level of 111.13 – 110.85. The failure to extend the declines is likely to keep the USDJPY currency pair to trade sideways. There is a risk of an upside breakout if price clears the falling trend line. A close above this trend line could trigger gains that could keep the USDJPY biased to the upside. The previous resistance level at 112.28 remains the key level of interest that could be targeted.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1219.57): Gold prices are trading back the support level of 1219. The downside breakout from the minor ascending triangle pattern signals a possible move to the downside. If gold prices clear the support at 1219, we could expect the losses to push lower to the previously established lows of 1211 region. To the upside, a rebound is required in order to clear the upside toward 1242 resistance.

Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 31-07-2018, 07:28
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Cyprus
Posts: 175
Default Re: Intraday Analysis July 2018

On the economic front, the preliminary inflation report for Germany showed that consumer prices rose 0.3% on the month. This was slightly below the median estimates of a 0.4% but inflation accelerated from 0.1% previously. On an annualized basis, German inflation rate was seen at 2.1%.

Spain’s preliminary inflation report also released on the day showed a 2.2% increase annually, slightly missing estimates of 2.3% increase.

Data from the U.S. showed that pending home sales snapped a two month decline to rise 0.9% on the month. However, on an annualized basis, pending home sales is still down 2.5%.

Earlier today, the Bank of Japan held its monetary policy meeting. The central bank kept monetary policy unchanged. It said that inflation would increase gradually to 2% but would take more time than expected.

Later in the day, the preliminary inflation report from France will be released followed by the inflation estimates for the Eurozone. Canada will be reporting on the monthly GDP figures and later in the evening, New Zealand will be releasing the quarterly employment figures.

EURUSD intra-day analysis



EURUSD (1.1708): The EURUSD currency pair posted strong gains on Monday. Price action managed to recover the losses from last Thursday’s ECB meeting. However, the common currency remains trading below the resistance level of 1.1730. This is expected to keep the currency pair’s gains in check. To the upside, a close above the short term resistance level at 1.1742 is required in order to confirm the upside toward 1.1824 – 1.1846. Alternately, in the event that the EURUSD fails to break past to this level, we can expect the ranging price action to continue.

USDJPY intra-day analysis



USDJPY (111.31): The USDJPY currency pair has been consolidating near the support level of 111.13 – 110.85 level. The BoJ meeting saw the dollar posting strong gains but price action is currently seen struggling to break past the long term trend line. Failure to post gains above the trend line could trigger potential declines to the downside. The immediate target to the downside comes from the support level at 109.45 region. Establishing support here could potentially signal the end of the correction to the uptrend.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis



XAUUSD (1220.43): Gold prices were seen drifting back lower as price action was testing the support level at 1219.74. The retest back to this support level could signal a potential turn around in price. Gold prices continue to consolidate with the ascending triangle pattern likely taking shape. A breakout above the resistance level at 1235.25 is required to post further gains in the near term. Alternately, with the double top pattern being formed, a breakout below 1219.74 support could see gold prices extending the declines lower.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Alpari Analysis Junio 2018 AlpariJose Forex Analysis 1 28-06-2018 03:13
Alpari Analysis Mayo 2018 AlpariJose Forex Analysis 0 21-05-2018 22:26
Alpari Analysis March 2018 AlpariJose Forex Analysis 2 22-03-2018 14:14
Catching A Falling Knife - Picking Intraday Turning Points ForexArticles Forex Articles 0 19-07-2016 15:35
+29,099 pips after 13 months of trading updated July 3, 2011 winsor Software / Signals / Services 14 28-05-2013 03:38


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:11.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.