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Intraday Analysis October 2018

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  #1  
Old 02-10-2018, 07:26
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Default Intraday Analysis October 2018

The markets opened on Monday to the news that the United States, Mexico and Canada managed to agree on a new deal. The new trade deal replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is now called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal. The deal is said to give greater access to the U.S to Canadian dairy markets in return for allowing extra imports of Canadian cars.


Economic data from the U.S. was slightly. Construction spending was seen rising less than expected August. Official data showed that spending on construction rose just 0.1% in August on a month over month basis.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI showed the index easing to 59.8 in August compared to 61.3 in July. The data also missed estimates of 60.1.

However, the USD managed to close on a high note, maintaining the gains from last Friday.

The day ahead will be marked by the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rate which stands at 1.50%. The European trading session is relatively quiet. Spain will be releasing its unemployment change followed by the construction PMI data from the UK.

The median estimates put the activity in the construction sector to ease slightly to 52.8 from 52.9.

Later in the evening, the NY trading session will see the Fed chair, Jerome Powell speaking.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1572): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines on Monday following through from last Friday’s losses. Price action is seen approaching the support level at 1.1547 – 1.1572 level. A rebound off this support level could stall the declienes temporarily. However, failure to hold the declines could trigger further losses. A break down below the support level could push the euro currency lower to the August lows of 1.1315 region.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3038): The GBPUSD currency pair was also trading weaker on Monday. Price aciton was seen settling near the support level of 1.3052 – 1.3028 level. As long as this support holds, there is scope for the GBPUSD currency pair to break higher. However, a break down below this level could see the cable testing the next main lower support at 1.2808. To the upside, price action could target the previously held resistance level of 1.3250.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1191.42): Gold prices managed to bounce off the support level at 1183.30. However, we expect the sideways range to continue. The resistance level at 1197.50 is the likely target to the upside. Failure to breakout above this level could see gold prices holding the sideways range for longer. To the downside a failure of the suport could signal further declines. The previous lows at 1170.00 will be the next main target of interest.
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  #2  
Old 03-10-2018, 07:08
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar was seen rising to intraday highs before easing back by the end of the day. Economic data on the day showed that the RBA held its monetary policy meeting. Interest rates were unchanged for the twenty-sixth consecutive month at 1.50%.

Data from the UK showed that construction PMI fell to 52.1 in September. This was slower than the estimates of 52.8 and down from 52.9 in August.

Data today will see the final services PMI from the Eurozone. The services sector is expected to remain unchanged as economists forecast a print of 54.7. This marks the same level of activity as the month before. Later in the day, retail sales data is expected to show a 0.2% increase in activity. This would reverse the previous month’s 0.2% decline.

The UK’s services sector is forecast to ease to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August.

The NY trading session will see the release of the ADP private payroll figures. Estimates show that private payrolls might have increased 187k during the month in August.

The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report is expected to come out later. Estimates put activity in the services sector at 58.1. This marks a slightly slower pace of increase compared to 58.5 previously.

The remainder of the NY session will see speeches from other Fed members including Brainard and Mester followed by the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1580): The EURUSD fell to a fresh two month low yesterday before pulling back. Price action is seen rebounding off the support level at 1.1547 – 1.1525 region at the time of writing. As long as the support holds, we expect to look at the rebound pushing the common currency back to the resistance level of 1.1651. We expect the EURUSD to maintain this range heading into this Friday’s payrolls report. In the near term, a breakout above 1.1651 could trigger further gains pushing the euro back toward the previously held resistance level of 1.1745 – 1.1718.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2995): The GBPUSD currency pair weakened on the back of a dismal construction PMI report. With price action clearing the support level at 1.3054 – 1.3028, the cable is expected to continue the decline. In the near term, we expect the GBPUSD to test the breached support area for resistance. As long as this support holds, the GBPUSD could be seen pushing lower. The next downside target is seen coming in at 1.2808. To the upside, the bias shifts if the currency pair manages to break out strongly above 1.3054 – 1.3028.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1207.05): Gold prices extended the gains as price action posted a significant rebound of the 1183.30 support. The rebound pushed gold prices above the resistance level of 1197.50. Price action is expected to approach the next main resistance level at 1212.05 eventually. Any declines are expected to stall near 1197.50 which could now act as support. Overall, gold prices are expected to remain within the range for the short term.
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  #3  
Old 04-10-2018, 07:08
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar was seen maintaining the gains on Wednesday. The USD Index was seen rallying to a fresh one month high on an intraday basis. Economic data on the day showed that the Eurozone’s final services PMI was at 54.7, matching the flash estimates.



However, German final services PMI fell to 55.9 from 56.5 last month. Retail sales for the Eurozone fell 0.2% missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. Previous month’s data was also revised down to show a 0.6% decline.

In the UK, the services sector measured by Markit showed a modest decline from 54.3 in August to 53.9.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI was seen advancing to 61.6 on the index. This beat expectation of the index easing to 58.0 and up from August reading of 58.5.

The ADP’s private payrolls data showed another solid month of gains. Private sector hiring rose 230k for September beating estimates of 185k and advancing from 168k in August.

The economic calendar today is relatively quiet. No major events are scheduled. This could potentially see investors taking a pause ahead of the Friday’s payrolls report. The NY trading session will see the Canadian Ivey PMI report coming out. Forecasters estimate an increase in the index to 62.3 from 61.9 a month ago.

The U.S. factory orders report will be coming out later. Forecasts put the factory orders to rise 2.2% on the month after a 0.8% decline previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1465): The EURUSD currency pair is seen extending declines for six consecutive days. Price action briefly posted a rebound off the support level near 1.1547 – 1.1525. However, failure to follow through this rebound has pushed price action lower. The next downside target is seen at 1.1435. However, we expect that this support level is unlikely to hold the declines. In the near term, any rebound off the lower support could push the EURUSD to maintain a range within 11547 – 1.1525 and the support at 1.1435.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2926): The GBPUSD currency pair is seen extending the declines after a brief bounce just below the 1.3028 – 1.3054 level of resistance. There is, however, a scope for price action to test this level more firmly. A reversal off the resistance level could push GBPUSD lower. The next primary target is seen at 1.2808, a support level that is pending a retest. To the upside, if GBPUSD breaks above the resistance area, we could expect to see a shift in the bias to the upside with the resistance level at 1.3250 being tested.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1196.43): The short rally in gold prices stalled as price action was seen reversing the gains after hitting a peak near 1206 level. The reversal saw a quick decline back to 1197.50. Price action is currently seen testing the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. We expect to see further decreases pushing the price down to 1193.00. This level served as a brief resistance level. A retest of this level for support could potentially bring some upside in price action.
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  #4  
Old 05-10-2018, 07:26
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar was seen giving up some of the gains on Thursday. Price action retreated after a strong rally during the previous days. Economic data on the day was mostly limited. Australia’s trade balance figures were released. Data showed that the trade surplus rose to 1.60 billion. This beat estimates of a 1.43 billion increase.

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Data from the Eurozone was relatively quiet. The NY trading session saw the release of Canada’s Ivey PMI. The index fell to 54.0 missing estimates of an increase to 62.3. However, with a reading above 50, the report indicated expansion. In the U.S. the factory orders showed a 2.3% increase on a month over month basis, beating estimates of a 2.2% increase.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the German factory orders and PPI reports. Switzerland will be releasing the inflation report for the month. Economists polled expect consumer prices to rise 0.2% on the month.

The NY trading session is expected to be busy with the release of both Canada and the U.S. jobs report. Canada is expected to post an employment change of 25k with the unemployment rate expected to fall from 6.0% to 5.9%.

In the U.S., the official payrolls data is forecast to show 185k jobs being added while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.8%. Wages are forecast to rise 0.3% on the month.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1511): The euro currency was seen posting modest gains on Thursday. Price action, however, is settled below the resistance level of 1.1547 – 1.1525 level. Some consolidation is expected below this level, but we expect the common currency to extend the gains down to the next lower support at 1.1435. The bias remains to the downside for the moment. If the EURUSD fails to hold on to the support at 1.1435, we expect the declines to push the currency pair further down to 1.1315.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3010): The GBPUSD currency pair posted a modest rebound pushing price action to test the previous resistance level of 1.3054 – 1.3028. The rebound has resulted in price action forming a hidden bearish divergence. As long as this resistance level holds, we expect GBPUSD to push lower. The next downside target is seen at 1.2808. However, for this level to be tested, the cable will need to break down below the previously formed lows of 1.2925.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1198.50): Gold prices are seen consolidating near the 20-period moving average from the 4-hour chart. Price action remains trading sideways. However, there is scope for gold prices to test the upper resistance level at 1212.05. To the downside, the support at 1193.04 will most likely be tested in the short term. A close below this level could push gold prices back down to the 1183.30 level of support.
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  #5  
Old 09-10-2018, 07:10
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

With the U.S. and Canadian markets closed, trading was relatively subdued. Still, the U.S. Dollar managed to maintain a steady pace of gains on Monday.

On the economic front, China’s Caixin services PMI was seen rising to 53.1 for September. This beat estimates of 51.4 and advanced from 51.5 in August.


In Switzerland, the unemployment data showed that the national unemployment rate was steady at 2.5% as expected. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point from the month before.

In the Eurozone, industrial production figures from Germany showed a 0.3% decline on a month over month basis. This missed estimates of a 0.4% increase and the declines followed through from a 1.3% decline in the previous month.

The economic calendar for the day will see the release of the trade balance figures from Germany. Estimates show that trade balance increased to 15.9 billion from 15.8 billion in the month before.

The economic data over the rest of the day is relatively quiet. The U.S. and Canadian markets open today after Monday’s bank holiday. Canada will be releasing the housing starts data. Economists forecast housing starts to rise 203k advancing from 201k from the previous month.

Later in the evening, the BoE member Broadbent will be speaking.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1490): The EURUSD currency pair attempted to test the 1.1540 level briefly, but price action turned weaker on the day. The resistance area putting a cap on any gains is expected to push the common currency lower. The next support level is seen at 1.1435 which could be tested in the near term. This will mark the retest of this level which previously served as resistance. In the event of a break down below this level, further declines could push the common currency lower to 1.1315 level.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3092): The GBPUSD currency pair was seen easing back to the support level at 1.3054 – 1.3028. The rebound off this support level could trigger further upside. Price action will need to clear the short-term high formed at 1.3135. A close above this high could confirm further gains. The resistance level at 1.3250 remains the likely target to the upside. Failure to rise above 1.3135 could, however, keep the GBPUSD subdued. A break down below the support will signal a move toward 1.2808.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1191.15): Gold prices fell sharply on the day as price action is seen recovering from the lows above 1183.00 region. Price action in gold remains flat in the medium term with the support at 1183 and the resistance at 1212.05 keeping the precious metal trading sideways. If gold prices break the floor at 1183.30, then we expect the declines to test 1170 region. To the upside, further gains can be expected only on a break out above 1212.05 resistance.
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  #6  
Old 11-10-2018, 09:39
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The headline moves yesterday were seen in equity markets which plummeted (S&P down 3%) under pressure from an uptick in US yields and USD. Consequently, we saw a flight to safety which drove the bid in gold but weighed on risk currencies.

A light data calendar should see a fairly muted European morning though US CPI data due later today has the potential to further weigh on risk appetite if we see a strong number. Similarly, any US data weakness today should see some lightening up of yesterday’s bearish tone.

EURUSD intraday analysis


After briefly piercing above the 1.1545 area resistance, EURUSD has since slipped back below the level. For now, price action continues to move within a short-term bullish channel which until broken, keeps focussing on a further recovery higher. If we do see a downside break, the 1.1515 level might provide some intraday support with prior highs and lows at the level. To the topside, the 1.585 – 1.1593 is the key resistance level (last week’s high) which will need to be broken to see a further topside run.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


The run above the late September high of 1.3216 eventually failed, and the price has since moved back below the level. While below here, the focus is on a run down to deeper support at the 1.3113 region where we have a raft of prior highs and low. Alternatively, if we see a move back above 1.3216, the September high of 1.3297 will come into focus.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


Gold prices have now surged above the local 1196.41 region that saw key support last week. For now, price remains in the middle range of the larger contracting triangle pattern which has framed price action over the previous few weeks. If the topside triangle trend line is broken, the focus will turn to a test of structural resistance around the 1206.61 – 1208.42 region. To the downside, initial support is sitting at the 1191.48 region, while below there the rising triangle trend line provides support.
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  #7  
Old 15-10-2018, 07:23
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar index managed to post recovery as price action turned slightly bullish on Friday. However, the price was contained within Thursday’s range.

The German final inflation report showed an unchanged print as consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month. The Eurozone’s industrial production numbers rose 1.0%, beating estimates of a 0.4% increase.

Data on Friday showed a mixed picture for the U.S. Import prices in the United States jumped 0.5% in September. Export prices remained unchanged. On a year over year basis, both import and export prices remained broadly unchanged.

Consumer confidence fell slightly in October, data from the University of Michigan showed on Friday. The British pound gapped lower on Monday. The decline came amid news from EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s comments that despite negotiations, some key issues remained. The euro was also seen gapping lower at today’s open.

Economic data for the day ahead is expected to remain mostly quiet during the European trading session. The NY trading session will see the release of the retail sales report.

Headline retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% on the month, while core retail sales are forecast to increase by 0.4%. The Empire State Manufacturing Index data later follow this. Economists expect activity to rise to 20.4 on the index.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1543): The EURUSD currency pair was seen easing back, giving up some of the gains on Friday. Price action looks comfortably settled above the recently breached resistance level of 1.1540. If support is established here, we expect the gains to push the EURUSD currency pair higher in the near term. The next main resistance level is seen at 1.1718. However, this can be achieved if the euro can post a strong reversal and break past the previous highs established at 1.1607.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3105): The GBPUSD extended gains strongly off the support at 1.3054 to test the resistance level at 1.3250. As previously noted, the rebound off the resistance level pushed the GBPUSD lower on the day on Friday. The immediate support is seen at 1.3132 which failed to hold the declines. We now expect the cable to fall back to the previous support level at 1.3054 – 1.3028.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1222.02): Gold prices look to have finally broken out from the flat price action last week. After breaching the resistance level at 1212.05, gold prices seem settled to post further gains. Watch for a potential bullish flag pattern being formed. This could potentially indicate further strong gains to come. To the downside, gold prices are at risk of posting a more substantial correction. This could push the price of the precious metal down to the support at 1212.05.
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  #8  
Old 16-10-2018, 07:02
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

Data from the Eurozone was quiet during the day. The NY session saw the release of the retail sales report. Headline retail sales rose just 0.1% on the month. This was below the estimates of 0.7% and marked the same pace of increase in August.

Core retail sales, on the other hand, fell 0.1% and missed estimates of 0.4%. Core retail sales for August was also revised lower to 0.2%. The NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index increased to 21.1 and was higher than the estimates of 20.4.

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In the overnight trading session, New Zealand’s third-quarter inflation showed a 0.9% increase. This beat expectations of a 0.7% increase and consumer prices advanced from 0.4% in the second quarter. On a year over year basis, New Zealand’s inflation rate stands at 1.9%.

The day ahead will see China’s inflation figures will kick off the economic calendar today. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 2.5%, gaining momentum from the 2.3% registered in August. Producer prices are expected to rise at a slower pace of 3.7%.

The European trading session starts with the German import prices coming out. Economists forecast that import prices rose 0.1% on the month, partly reversing some of the declines posted from the month before.

In the UK, the labor market data is scheduled. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%. Wage growth is tipped to rise modestly. The data comes ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.

The ZEW institute will be releasing the economic sentiment indicators for Germany and the Eurozone.

The NY trading session will be marked with the release of the industrial production figures. Economists estimate a 0.2% increase which is slower than the month before. The industrial capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly to 78.2%.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1574): The Euro currency posted gains on Monday as price action managed to rebound off the support. However, price action managed to post a lower high, resulting in a near double top pattern. The common currency could be seen testing the lower support at 1.1547. A break down below this support could signal further declines and in turn, validate the double top pattern. The minimum downside we expect to see is for the EURUSD to touch 1.1500 level. Alternately, to the upside, a close above 1.1604 could trigger further gains.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3144): The GBPUSD currency pair managed to recover off the opening lows on Monday. Price action rebound to fill the gap rather quickly before consolidating. We expect that the cable could move lower if the temporary support at 1.3132 fails to hold the current declines. The downside momentum could push the GBPUSD lower toward the familiar support of 1.3054 – 1.3028 region. As long as the support here holds, we maintain the upside bias. A close below the support could send the GBPUSD down to 1.2808

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1226.09): Gold prices rallied to fresh highs on Mondays before quickly giving up the gains. The retracement could, however, push the price of the precious metal lower. The initial support at 1212.05 – 1207.00 could be tested in the near term if gold prices pullback further. However, the upside bias remains for the moment following the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern. If gold prices fail to post a rebound, we anticipate a flat range to be maintained once again.
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  #9  
Old 17-10-2018, 07:08
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

China’s headline inflation rose 2.5% on the year ending September. This was a modest increase from August inflation rate which touched 2.3%. However, producer prices index data rose at a slower pace for the third consecutive week. PPI was seen rising just 3.6% on the year missing estimates of a 3.7% increase. In August, China’s PPI was at 4.1%.

Data from the UK showed that wage growth picked up sharply. Excluding bonuses, wages in the UK advanced 2.7% in the three months ending August. This was higher than the median estimates of 2.6%. The UK’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.0% for the third consecutive month.


Data from the Eurozone showed that the German economic sentiment index weakened to -24.7 unexpectedly. The decline was seen coming due to the uncertainty on global trade policies.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics will be releasing the inflation report today. Consumer prices in the UK are forecast to rise 2.6% on the year ending September 2018. The forecasts mark a modest slowdown in the pace of inflation increase. Core inflation rate is also expected to rise at a slower pace of 2.0% from 2.1% in August.

Following this, the Eurozone’s final inflation figures will be coming out. Headline CPI is expected to be confirmed at 2.1% while core inflation rate is expected to rise at a much slower pace of 0.9%.

The NY trading sessions start off with Canada’s manufacturing sales report. This is followed by the building permits and housing starts data. Building permits are expected to rise by 1.28 million while housing starts are expected to rise at a slower pace of 1.21 million.

Later in the evening, the Fed will be releasing its meeting minutes from September. The minutes mark the monetary policy decision where officials hiked interest rates by 25 basis points.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1565): The EURUSD currency has formed a double top pattern on the 4-hour chart. Price action spiked through this level yesterday before giving up the gains. We expect a retest of the support area near 1.1547 – 1.1525 level. If this support gives way, the common currency could be seen pushing lower. We anticipate that the EURUSD would test 1.1500 level to establish support ahead of potential further gains in store.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3176): The GBPUSD currency pair posted a rebound and managed to rise only to form a lower high. The decline off this lower high suggests that the British pound could be on its way to test the lower support at 1.3054 – 1.3028. Price action is currently supported by the 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart time frame. Watch for the minor support at 1.3132 to hold the declines initially. To the upside, GBPUSD will need to break past the 1.3250 level to confirm the upside.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1222.57): Price action in gold was muted as price stalled near Monday’s highs before closing slightly bearish. On the 4-hour chart, we see the retracement taking place. This is indicative of a further decline down to the 1212.05 – 1207.00 level of support. A retest of this support would mark price action establishing support following the breakout from the ascending triangle pattern. The bias remains to the upside. However, if gold prices fail to hold near the support level, we expect further declines to invalidate the ascending triangle pattern.
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Old 18-10-2018, 07:30
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The Fed released its meeting minutes yesterday covering the monetary policy meeting from September. Officials maintained the view that further gradual rate hikes were necessary. The hawkish tone of the minutes sent the USD to rise.

UK’s inflation data released yesterday showed that consumer prices rose at a much slower pace. Headline inflation was seen rising 2.4% on an annualized basis in August. This was slower than the median forecasts of 2.6%. Inflation eased from 2.7% in August. Core CPI which excludes the food and energy prices rose 1.9% down from 2.1% in August.

Australia’s unemployment data showed that the official unemployment rate fell to a six-year low at 5.0%. This beat estimates of no change at 5.3%. The number of jobs added was slower at 5.6k which was below estimates of 15.2k.

In Japan, the export data showed a decline for the first time in two years. The decline in exports came amid the business concerns about the trade wars as well as natural disasters.

The day ahead will see the retail sales figures from the UK coming out. Headline retail sales are forecast to fall 0.4% on the month following an increase of 0.3% previously.

The EU’s economic summit continues for the second day today. On the agenda will be the Brexit issue. The NY trading session will see the release of the Philly Fed manufacturing index. Economists forecast that the Fed manufacturing index eased to 18.7 from 22.9 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1498): The EURUSD was bearish yesterday as price action fell past the support level of 1.1547 – 1.1525. We expect the declines to push the common currency down to the lower support level at 1.1435. This would mark a retest of this level that was previously established. The declines are most likely to stall at this point following which the EURUSD currency pair could be seen attempting to post a rebound.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.3099): The GBPUSD currency pair closed below the 1.3132 level of support following the failure to post a new high on the rebound. The declines could send the British pound lower as price action could test the support level at 1.3054 – 1.3028. In the short term, we expect the currency pair to maintain a range within the said levels. A breakout from these levels could trigger further direction. To the downside, the next lower support at 1.2808 remains in focus, while to the upside, the price will need to break past 1.3250 resistance to post further gains.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1223.99): Gold prices were seen easing back on the bullish momentum. Price action is currently attempting to retrace some of the losses. However, we expect the minor resistance level at 1225.35 to hold the gains in the short term. A reversal off this level could trigger the downside. Gold prices will most likely fall back to retest the breached resistance level region of 1212.05 – 1207.00 ahead of further gains. Alternately, if price action breaks past 1225.35, then gold prices could be seen resuming the bullish momentum.
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  #11  
Old 23-10-2018, 07:04
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. dollar managed to post some moderate gains on Monday amid lack of any fundamentals to go by. Japan’s all industries activity was seen rising 0.5% on the month which beat forecasts of a 0.4% increase.

Canada’s wholesale sales fell 0.1% on the month which missed estimates. Previous month’s data was revised down to 1.1%. The British pound was seen easing back on Monday on concerns about the UK’s government stability in light of the Brexit negotiation.

The economic calendar for the day will see Japan’s core CPI from the BoJ being released. Core inflation was seen rising 0.5% for the previous month.

The European session will see Germany’s producer prices data coming out. German PPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

The NY trading session is quiet with no major releases scheduled. FOMC member Bostic is scheduled to speak later in the evening. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney will also be speaking today.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1456): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines on Monday as price action failed to break past the resistance level of 1.1540. Price action is seen retesting the familiar support area of 1.1450 – 1.1435 level. A break down below this support area will signal further declines as it invalidates the double bottom pattern. However, there is scope for the common currency to maintain the range between the sideways range currently in place.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2963): The GBPUSD currency pair broke past the support level of the 1.3054 – 1.3028 region. The break down below the support level indicates further declines are likely on the horizon. The next main support is seen at 1.2808. In the near term, any rebound is expected to stall near the recently breached support level which could be tested for resistance. In the event that GBPUSD closes back above this level, we expect a short-term change in the trend.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1224.18): Gold prices managed to consolidate above the support level of 1225.35 before slipping past this level. At the time of writing, gold prices are seen retracing the losses. However, failure to close past the 1225.35 level which could now act as resistance could signal the downside. The lower support at 1207 becomes the first support level of interest which could be tested. To the upside, gold will need to close back above 1225.35 and preferably post a higher high to confirm the upside.
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  #12  
Old 24-10-2018, 07:03
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. dollar maintained its dominance on Tuesday, but price action was seen easing slightly following the gains. On the economic front, data was relatively quiet. The rising global tensions saw the markets having a lower risk appetite. Gold prices managed to rise along with investors seeking the safe haven of the yen.

The euro currency fell to an intraday low before recovering. Data showed that the Eurozone’s consumer confidence improved slightly to -2.7 from -2.9 previously. The European Commission was also seen rejecting Italy’s budget but the Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte remarked that there was no Plan B for its budget.


The British pound was seen trading volatile on the day after news reports suggested that the EU could offer the UK a customs union.

The economic data picks up steam with today’s European session marking the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI data. The Eurozone’s flash manufacturing PMI is expected to ease slightly to 53.1 from 53.2 in September while services PMI is forecast to fall back to 54.5 from 54.7 previously.

The NY trading session will see the release of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement and interest rate decision. The BoC is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting. This would bring the interest rates to 1.75%.

Later in the day, the U.S. new home sales data will be coming out. Economists polled expect new home sales to rise slightly to 630k from 629k the month before. Fed members, Bostic and Mester, are due to speak later in the evening.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1472): The EURUSD currency pair turned flat on the day closing with a doji. Price action continues to consolidate around the support area of 1.1435 – 1.1460. The sideways range for the common currency could remain in place until tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The EURUSD will need to break out from the range that it has maintained for the most part this week. Given that the support level has held the declines firmly so far, price action could be seen attempting to break out to the upside.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2988): The GBPUSD currency pair was seen recovering off Monday’s lows yesterday. However, price action briefly touched the previously breached support area of 1.3054 – 1.3028 before easing back on the day. As long as the resistance level is not breached, the GBPUSD currency pair could maintain the downside bias. The currency pair remains at risk of a decline to 1.2808. But for the most part, the price action could be dictated by Brexit related news.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1232.45): Gold prices advanced strongly on the day to test the resistance level of 1238.00 before promptly easing back. The upside gains came as the precious metal managed to break past the consolidation area around 1225.35. Currently, following the modest pullback, gold prices could once again attempt to break out from this level. Failure to do so could put Gold prices back in the range of 1238 and 1225.35. There is a risk that gold prices could ease back to 1207 if it fails to find support at 1225.35.
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  #13  
Old 25-10-2018, 07:04
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by a quarter point yesterday. This brought the interest rates to 1.75%, the highest in a decade. The central bank also took a more hawkish stance indicating that rates might have to rise faster than expected.

Data from the Eurozone showed that the flash manufacturing and services PMI came out slightly weaker than forecast. Flash manufacturing fell to 52.1 missing estimates of 53.3 while flash services PMI fell to 53.3 from 54.5 which was forecast.

In the U.S. flash, PMI’s by Markit indicated an increase in activity on both manufacturing and services sectors. New home sales data, however, failed to match the forecasts, rising at a slower pace of just 553k during the month.

The economic calendar for the day will see the European session standing out with the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. The central bank is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. With the ECB now into the final stretch of its QE program, the ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to take a cautious stance in the statement.

The NY trading session will see the release of the durable goods orders report. Core durable goods are forecast to rise 0.5% on the month following a flat print the month before. The headline, durable goods orders, are forecast to fall 1.3% after rising 4.4% the month before. Later in the evening, the U.S. pending home sales report is due.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1404): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines quite a bit on Wednesday. The common currency fell to a two month low at 1.1379 as it broke past the previously held support level. On the 4-hour chart, we see the Stochastics pointing to a bullish divergence. Against this backdrop, the Euro could be seen attempting to recover. A close above the recently breached support level of 1.1435 – 1.462 could potentially signal a turnaround in the short term.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2886): The British pound continued to fall with price action falling to a fresh one-month low. The declines could be expected as the currency pair will be seen testing the lower support level at 1.2808 region. Any short-term rebounds in decline to the support level could be limited. The resistance level at 1.3054 – 1.3028 will keep any gains in check.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1236.94): Gold prices were seen attempting to rally back to the resistance level. However, price action is expected to see the end of the upside as the resistance level of 1238 holds for the moment. A close below 1225.35 support is however needed to confirm a decline. We expect gold prices to eventually test the lower support at 1207 which could mark a correction to the rally.
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  #14  
Old 26-10-2018, 06:53
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar posted strong gains on Thursday as the dollar index rallied close to the year’s high. Economic data on the day showed that Spain’s unemployment rate fell to 14.6% beating expectations of 14.9%. However, Germany’s Ifo business climate fell to 102.8 which was below estimates of 103.1.

The ECB held its monetary policy meeting, and as widely expected, no changes were made to the interest rates. The ECB announced its plans to end its QE purchased by the end of the year despite some weakness in the Eurozone’s economy.

Data from the U.S. showed that core durable goods orders rose just 0.1%. This was below estimates of a 0.5% increase. However, headline durable goods orders rose 0.8% which beat estimates that forecast a 1.3% decline.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching the data from the U.S. The third quarter advanced GDP report is due today. Economists polled forecast Q3 GDP in the U.S. to rise 3.3%. This marks a slower pace of growth compared to the 4.2% increase in the previous quarter.

The ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to deliver a speech later in the day.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1364): The EURUSD continued to extend declines on Thursday as price action was seen closing below 1.1400 level. The break down below this level could potentially signify further declines in price action. Any short-term rebound is likely to be met with the resistance level formed at 1.1435 region. A close above this region is required for the EURUSD to post any meaningful correction.

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2816): The GBPUSD currency pair reached its downside target of 1.2806 which marks a correction and a retest of this support level. We expect to see some consolidation taking place at this level following which price action could attempt to post a rebound. The recovery to the upside could see the GBPUSD attempting to retest the breached support level area of 1.3054 – 1.3028. However, if the cable breaks down below 1.2806, we expect the bearish trend to continue.

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1232.30): Gold prices posted modest declines, but price action quickly recovered towards the closing session on Thursday. The consolidation is currently forming into a rising wedge pattern. Gold prices will need to break out from the lower rising trend line in order to validate this pattern. The lower support at 1225.35 will be the immediate target to the downside. A break down below this level could trigger further declines to the 1207.00 region.
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  #15  
Old 26-10-2018, 13:28
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Default USDJPY a good buy


USDJPY, we're looking for a long term long position with an ultimate target at 114.182 and the next target at 118.00
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  #16  
Old 29-10-2018, 08:09
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

Economic data from Friday showed that the Tokyo core CPI rose 1.0% as forecast. This was an unchanged print compared to the month before on an annualized basis.

In the Eurozone, the German Gfk consumer climate was seen to be steady at 10.6 which was above forecasts of 10.5. The NY trading session saw investors watching the GDP report. Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. economy advanced 3.5% in the three months ending September 2018. This was higher than the forecasts of a 3.3% increase. Still, compared to the 4.2% increase in the second quarter, the pace of growth was seen to be slowing.

The ECB President Mario Draghi was speaking later in the evening at an event but did not make direct comments to monetary policy.

Looking ahead, the economic data for the day is quiet for most of Asia and Europe. The NY trading session will see the release of the U.S. core PCE price index. Forecasts show that the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation rose 0.1% on the month following a flat print previously.

Personal spending and income data are expected to rise 0.4% respectively.



EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1392): The EURUSD fell to fresh lows on Friday, but price action quickly recovered from the sell-off. By Friday’s close, the EURUSD was seen bouncing back. However, the resistance level of 1.1435 is likely to keep a lid on the gains. A strong breakout above this level is needed for the EURUSD to potentially breakout higher. To the downside, the continuing downside momentum could push the common currency lower to 1.1315.


GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2833): The British pound was seen trading rather muted on Friday. After price action tested the support level of 1.2808, the GBPUSD has been trading flat here. There is a risk that the currency pair could break down below this support level. However, from the daily chart, the GBPUSD is currently trading near the support area of 1.2808 – 1.2683. Therefore, the declines are likely to be limited.


XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1232.68): Gold prices rallied to the resistance area of 1242.25 – 1238.00 level on Friday before easing back. The strong selling at this level pushed gold prices lower, but the consolidation within the rising wedge pattern remains. We expect to see a potential downside breakout in gold. A close below 1225.35 support level could trigger a decline to 1207.00 level. To the upside, gold prices will need to break past the resistance area to post any further gains.
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  #17  
Old 30-10-2018, 08:10
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. Dollar managed to hold its ground on Monday. Economic data was sparse. In the European trading session, the euro currency came under pressure after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel announced that she was stepping down as the head of the German Christian Democratic Party (CDU). Her announcement came after regional elections showed that the two leading parties, the CSU and the CDU fared poorly.

The NY trading session saw the U.S. personal income and spending data. As widely expected, personal spending rose 0.4%. However, personal income rose at a slower pace of just 0.2%. Meanwhile, data for the previous month was revised higher to 0.4%.


The U.S. core PCE price index data jumped 0.2% in September beating estimates of a 0.1% increase. On a year over year basis, the core PCE price index was unchanged at 2.0%.

The final trading day of the month of October will see the economic data kicking off with the flash GDP from France. Economists forecast a 0.4% rebound in the GDP for the third quarter.

German preliminary CPI data is expected to show inflating rising at a slower pace of 0.1% compared to 0.4% increase the month before.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. The conference board’s consumer confidence data is due which is expected to show a modest dip to 136.3 compared to 138.4 previously.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1381): The EURUSD currency pair continues to trend lower, but recent price action is signaling potential exhaustion to the downside in price. The next lower support is seen coming in at 1.1310 – 1.1300 region. A decline could see this support level being tested. To the upside, the 1.1435 level is likely to act as resistance and could keep a lid on the gains

GPBUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2806): The British pound continued to consolidate near the support level of 1.2808 level although briefly dipping below this level. The 4-hour Stochastics oscillator is seen posting a higher low indicating a potential bullish divergence. Price action will need to clear the immediate short-term resistance level of 1.2850 to confirm the upside. The previously breached support level at 1.3086 is the likely upside target in price

XAUUSD intraday analysis


XAUUSD (1227.68): Gold prices broke out from the rising wedge pattern and fell to test the initial support at 1225.35. This led to a quick rebound in price action. For the moment, gold prices are seen consolidating above this support level. A confirmed break out below this support level is needed for gold prices to extended declines to the 1207.00 region of support. To the upside, any gains are likely to be limited to the resistance level of 1238.02.
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  #18  
Old 31-10-2018, 08:06
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Default Re: Intraday Analysis October 2018

The U.S. dollar continued to post gains on Tuesday. Economic data on the day showed that the Eurozone’s initial estimates of the third quarter GDP grew just 0.2% in the three months ending September 2018. This brought the annual GDP growth rate to only 1.7%. Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation data showed consumer prices rising to the highest level in ten years.

Data from the U.S. showed that consumer confidence rose to 137.9 beating estimates of 136.3.

The Asian trading session saw the release of the quarterly inflation data from Australia. Data showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% on the quarter ending September 2018. This was the same pace of increase as seen in the previous quarter. On an annualized basis, Australia’s inflation rose 1.9%, which was slower compared to the 2.1% increase in the previous quarter.

The Bank of Japan was seen holding monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will be speaking shortly at the BoJ press conference.

The European trading session will see the release of the flash inflation data. Economists forecast consumer prices might have increased 2.1% on the headline and 1.0% on the core CPI on an annualized basis.

The NY trading session is relatively quiet. Canada will be releasing its monthly GDP numbers today. Among the central bank speeches lined up, the SNB chief, Thomas Jordan will be speaking followed by a statement from the BoC Governor Poloz.

EURUSD intraday analysis


EURUSD (1.1340): The EURUSD currency pair is on track to test the lower support level of the 1.1315 – 1.1300 region. Establishing support at this level could potentially pause the declines momentarily. The EURUSD currency pair could turn flat within the support level mentioned and the resistance area of 1.1435 which could be tested to the upside. A close above 1.1435 is needed for the EURUSD to post any correction to the upside

GBPUSD intraday analysis


GBPUSD (1.2710): The GBPUSD currency pair broke past the support level of 1.2808 and is now likely to extend the declines to the 1.2688 level. Establishing support here could give yet another opportunity for the GBPUSD currency pair to post a rebound. However, price action could remain muted within the newly formed support and resistance levels

XAUUSD intraday



XAUUSD (1217.74): Gold prices, after a brief consolidation near the support level of 1225.35 were seen breaking past the support level to extend its declines. Price action is likely to target the downside at 1207. Any short-term rebound in price action could be seen retesting the breached support level at 1225.35 to establish resistance. In the event that gold prices break past the 1225.35 level of resistance, we could expect to see the rising wedge pattern being invalidated
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