Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: A STRONG BREAKOUT IS LOOMING. BRITISH INFLATION REPORT AHEAD

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair remained inside the range yesterday as the current geopolitical situation still remains tense and no decisive action was taken.

Technical Outlook
Our view on the pair remains neutral, in anticipation of a breakout which is long overdue. The direction of this breakout will be decided by any new developments coming from Greece and Ukraine. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 resistance and considering that price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly and four-hour chart, we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook
U.S. Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to post a change of -0.3% compared with last month’s -0.9%. Sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity and that’s why values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The indicator is considered high-impact so we might get a breakout after its release.


GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar moved stronger yesterday but we saw a sharp whipsaw once 1.5300 resistance was touched and this made trading rather difficult on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook
What appeared to be a very strong break of 1.5260 resistance soon turned out to be just a single move which was quickly reversed at 1.5300 resistance. If the bears can keep price below 1.5260, it would mean that 1.5200 will be the next immediate target. Inflation-related data and Mark Carney’s press conference will probably decide the next short term price direction.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report which contains an outlook on economic performance and inflation for the next 2 years. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference at the same time, discussing the contents of the Report and we recommend caution if trading during the conference because inflation is always a sensible issue and sharp moves may be present.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BROKEN RESISTANCE OPENS THE DOOR FOR FURTHER ADVANCES

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair finally broke out of the tight range, mostly due to a disappointing U.S. Retail Sales report which showed a -0.8% change compared with the expected -0.4%.

Technical Outlook
Although 1.1360 resistance is broken, price is likely to return in that area for a re-test, considering the overbought condition showed by the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart. If the touch will result in a bounce higher, the next target is located at 1.1500 but a return below 1.1360 would indicate that the ranging period is still not over and will open the door for a move back into 1.1270 zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and an increase is anticipated from the previous 0.1% to 0.3%. This would strengthen the Euro since the German economy is of major importance to the entire Euro zone and the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey which is expected to show a value of 98.2, almost unchanged from last month’s 98.1. Higher values are usually beneficial for the US Dollar as consumer sentiment is tightly correlated to consumer spending.


GBP/USD
Mark Carney’s speech together with the Inflation Report generated Pound strength although the event contained some mixed – even contradictory – signals regarding inflation and a potential rate cut.

Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index moved well above the 70 level, signaling an overbought condition of price. This means that we might see bearish retracements which will most likely find support near 1.5340 zone, followed by 1.5300. The next important resistance is located around 1.5540 but we don’t expect such a move unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases thus price direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S Consumer Sentiment.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS AND GREEK DEBT TAKE CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD
Forex News: The German Gross Domestic Product surpassed analysts’ expectations Friday and the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey disappointed but despite all this, the day lacked clear direction and no major advances were made.

Technical Outlook
Latest price action created minor resistance at 1.1440 and now the pair is headed towards 1.1360. Although last week was bullish, the advance is not strong and a move into support is very likely, especially if the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the downside. Overall we expect a slow day due to the lack of major economic announcements, but if new developments for the Greek debt issue take place, we will most likely see strong moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by key personalities from the financial and political scene. The Greek debt issue will be discussed and will play an important role for today’s price direction. Keep in mind that the meetings are closed to the press but sometimes information is leaked throughout the day and an official statement is released once the meetings finish. U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating President’s Day thus no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD
The pair had an almost flat day Friday and neither side made any advances. U.S. consumer data came out below analysts’ expectations but this wasn’t enough to create directional movement.

Technical Outlook
If price touches 1.5420 again but the bulls cannot break it on the first try, we expect price to drop below the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and to head towards 1.5340. A break of this level would expose 1.5300 support but we don’t expect a break of this level to happen today. Since the end of last month the pair has been in an uptrend so a bullish bounce at 1.5340 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks British economic indicators thus price action will be driven by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR BRITISH INFLATION AND GERMAN ZEW SURVEY

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and the pair lacked strong directional movement as U.S. banks were closed in observance of Presidents’ Day and at least at the time of writing, a clear solution to the Greek debt problem hasn’t been reached.

Technical Outlook
The minor resistance at 1.1440 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the same is true for the support at 1.1360. For the time being the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is offering good support from a short time perspective; a clean break of this line will open the door for a touch of 1.1360 while a bounce and consequent break of 1.1440 will make 1.1500 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding a 6 month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and numbers above the anticipated 56.2 usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD
The picture remains unclear for the Pound-Dollar as yesterday we saw a failed breakout, followed by a bearish move below 1.5420.

Technical Outlook
Current direction favors the bears and resistance is still holding so price is likely to continue moving down and to find support at 1.5340. If the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold by the time price touches support, we anticipate a bullish bounce and keep in mind that price is in a medium term uptrend so we might see continuation moves above 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:30 and is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. The indicator is the main gauge of British inflation and usually lower numbers than analysts’ forecast are detrimental for the Pound so we might see down moves if this comes true.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: GREEK ISSUE STILL UNSOLVED, FED MEETING MINUTES AHEAD

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened against the US Dollar in the first part of the session but erased some of the losses once the German ZEW came out with a better value than previous. Although analysts anticipated a stronger climb, it is still the highest in a year and this added some fuel to the single currency.

Technical Outlook
Despite the Euro strength generated by the ZEW value, the bulls couldn’t break 1.1440 and the pair started to move south once again. The Greek debt problem is still not solved and this is one of the reasons why the market is still searching for a clear direction. Today we expect another touch of 1.1360 support but our view is mostly neutral as price direction still remains heavily influenced by the Greek talks.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event for the US Dollar is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. It will contain details of the Fed’s latest meeting and more importantly, it can offer hints about future monetary policy direction. If this is the case, the market will react swiftly and the greenback will show strong movement.


GBP/USD
The British Consumer Price Index met analysts’ forecast, showing a change of 0.3% and this created mixed reaction. The bulls failed to threaten resistance and the bears are looking stronger for the time being.

Technical Outlook
Current momentum belongs to the bears as they managed to take price below 1.5340 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. If bearish pressure mounts, today we expect a touch of 1.5260 but 1.5300 could be a strong barrier in front of falling prices. A bounce above 1.5340 would probably generate an extended move into 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count Change is released. The anticipated figure is -25.2K and usually lower numbers are beneficial for the currency because the indicator shows how many people applied for unemployment-related benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will announce a breakdown of their latest rate votes but usually this event only creates strong movement if one or more of the MPC members changed their stance.

[orni308]

GBPUSD moved a bit but there were strong resistence at this level, which makes it better for short trades..

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUT IMMINENT. SPEECHES AND TESTIMONIES HOLD THE HEADLINES

EUR/USD
Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a value below analysts’ expectations and the euro weakened as a result. However the pair remained in ranging mode and neither support nor resistance was broken.

Technical Outlook
A breakout is imminent but the direction remains uncertain; the important levels for short-term price action remain 1.1440 as resistance and 1.1270 as support. A break of either of them will mark the end of the ranging period but since price came in close vicinity of support and couldn’t break it, we expect a bounce higher which can find resistance at 1.1440. However, until a clear break occurs, our view remains neutral on this pair.

Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak today at the official unveiling of the 20 Euro banknote. The event takes place in Frankfurt at 2:00 pm GMT and is followed at 3:00 pm GMT by Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony is likely to generate more volatility, depending on her altitude and answers. At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released and expected to show a drop to 99.6 from the previous 102.9. Consumer confidence is correlated with consumer spending so a higher than anticipated value will strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The British CBI Realized Sales posted a surprisingly low value of 1 while analysts’ expected 42. This initially generated Pound weakness but a remarkable reversal occurred soon after, without any apparent reason.

Technical Outlook
After bouncing at 1.5420 the pair headed into the support located at 1.5340 as expected, but here a near perfect bounce occurred, followed by a climb of more than 100 pips. Currently the bulls are trying to break 1.5460 and if they succeed, the door will be open for an extended move into 1.5540 resistance. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, a fact which may hinder further bullish movement for the time being. The first potential support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the British Inflation Report Hearings take place. Bank of England Governor and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on economic growth and inflation. The hearings last a few hours during which volatility may increase and sharp moves can occur so caution is recommended. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: THE MARATHON OF TESTIMONIES CONTINUES. VOLATILITY EXPECTED

EUR/USD
Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony yesterday triggered mixed up and down movement as she mentioned that the Fed is expecting inflation to rise to 2% but a rate hike is unlikely to happen during the next two Fed meetings. The range was not broken.

Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1440 resistance and 1.1270 support, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the 2 oscillators moving almost flat on a four hour chart. If price approaches support again and fails to break it, we anticipate a move into 1.1440 resistance but given the sideways movement seen lately, our view remains mainly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify again, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. The speech and the questions she will receive are likely to generate strong and even mixed market reaction so we recommend caution. At 4:30 pm GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. All his public speeches can easily create volatility but price direction is usually determined by his attitude and answers.


GBP/USD
The British Inflation Report hearings went mostly unnoticed yesterday and the strongest movement was seen at the time of Yellen’s testimony.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5460 is still holding but so is the minor support at 1.5420. A move outside this 40 pips range is very likely to occur today and considering that price made several unsuccessful attempts to break resistance, we consider that the chances of a bullish break have decreased. If the pair can move below 1.5420, we expect a touch of the support at 1.5340.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will release today at 9:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals. This indicator offers insights into the British house market and usually higher numbers than the forecast 36.2K are beneficial for the Pound. Half an hour later BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a public speech at the launch of the One Bank Research Agenda but the impact on the currency market is likely to be mild.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN INFLATION DATA AND U.K. GDP – THE DAY’S MAIN MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD
Forex News: The testimonies of Yellen and Draghi did not create the anticipated volatility and the pair had another slow, choppy day. Both support and resistance are still intact and the ranging period is still not over.

Technical Outlook
Although it’s mostly flat, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer a minimum of resistance as seen from yesterday’s price action. However, the pair is moving sideways and lately it isn’t even trying to break the resistance at 1.1440 or the support at 1.1270. Until a clean break of the mentioned levels occurs, the pair’s movement will remain choppy and unpredictable.

Fundamental Outlook
American inflation data will be today’s main event. The US Consumer Price Index, which is the primary gauge of inflation will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to change -0.6%, compared with the previous -0.4%. Fed Chair Yellen mentioned during a previous testimony that inflation is expected to grow towards 2.0%, but so far the numbers are still dropping; if today we see another dip, the US Dollar is likely to be negatively affected.


GBP/USD
The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals came out close to the anticipated value but the Pound continued to strengthen throughout the day and major resistance was touched.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.5540 was touched yesterday and price quickly reacted by moving lower; the Relative Strength Index was overbought and this contributed to the bounce. Today we expect price to remain between 1.5540 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of either of them will probably determine the next medium term direction. Another bounce at resistance would imply that lower prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released (forecast 0.5%) and can have a strong impact on the Pound since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge; however, this is the second version of the indicator and tends to have a lower impact than the Preliminary version.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: TRADERS’ ATTENTION SHIFTS TOWARDS GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP AS BEARS REGAIN CONTROL

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the range it was confined in. American inflation increased as shown by the Core version of the CPI indicator. The Durable Goods Orders also showed an increase, contributing to US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook
The break of 1.1270 support will play a major role for future price action if the bears can keep the pair below this level. Clearly the recent momentum belongs to the bears and we anticipate further movement south but a re-test of the broken level is very possible, considering that the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level, indicating oversold. Our current bias is bearish after brief retracements, with 1.1270 acting as potential resistance and 1.1100 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The focus will shift today towards German inflation data which is released at 1:00 pm GMT. A hefty increase from the previous -1.1% to 0.6% is expected and if this forecast comes true, the euro will most likely strengthen. Half an hour later the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product comes out; the anticipated change is 2.1% while the previous was 2.6%. Although the first version (Advance) is the most important, the Preliminary also has the potential to strongly move the currency; higher percentages are beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD
British Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectations and the event didn’t have a massive impact but the US data generated a sharp fall which broke several support levels.

Technical Outlook
The bulls tried to take price above 1.5540 – 1.5550 resistance but failed to do so and this was a sign that their strength is fading. The pair is now trading comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5460 but 1.5420 is not clearly broken yet. We expect price to move below this level, towards 1.5340 but before that can happen, a retracement higher is needed; adding to this opinion is the position of the Relative Strength Index which is signaling an oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases today so price direction will be influenced by the U.S. events and by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM MOMENTUM FAVORS THE BEARS, EUROPEAN INFLATION TO DECIDE NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the pair was mostly controlled by the bears as the U.S. Gross Domestic Product exceeded analysts’ expectations, but some euro strength was also seen. The main reason for bullish moves was the German CPI which showed an increase.

Technical Outlook
The pair’s direction for the day will be influenced by European inflation numbers but if no surprises occur, we expect further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are moving slightly below their oversold levels and this increases the chances of upwards price action. First potential resistance is represented by Friday’s high located at 1.1245.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 10:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.5%, better than the previous -0.6%. Current European inflation is considered too low compared with ECB’s target of just below 2.0% so another decrease would be detrimental for the single currency while an increase would strengthen the euro.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a figure of 53.4, almost unchanged from the previous 53.5. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which acts as a leading indicator of optimism regarding the business conditions in the manufacturing sector; higher values are beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is not always strong.


GBP/USD
Friday price climbed back between support and resistance and overall we had a choppy session, with control shifting between bulls and bears.

Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.5460 resistance and 1.5420 support but we expect this to change today. Price hit the 50 period Exponential Moving Average several times Friday but failed to surpass it and this shows that the bulls have run out of steam. Price direction for the day will be influenced by the U.S. and British data but we expect descent below 1.5420 en route to Friday’s low; a clean break above 1.5460 would decrease the chances of such a descent.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The expected figure is 53.5 and numbers above that can strengthen the Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BULLS FADING AS SHORT TERM RESISTANCE GENERATES MOVES SOUTH

EUR/USD
Forex News: European inflation showed improvement yesterday and the single currency reacted accordingly by strengthening when the data came out. However, the second part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears.

Technical Outlook
The pair climbed to touch Friday’s high located at 1.1245 but the level offered good resistance and price soon bounced lower. This adds to our bearish bias and we consider the next destination to be the support zone near 1.1100. The fact that the Stochastic is below 30 and the Relative Strength Index is also moving close to oversold could invalidate this scenario and could generate some bullish movement; however, if price does move north but 1.1270 is not broken, the chances of a move into 1.1100 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The Spanish Unemployment numbers are released at 8:00 am GMT and this will be the day’s main event. The indicator tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared with the previous month and usually creates strong movement only if big differences are posted. For today’s release analysts expect a drop from the previous 78.0K to 10.5K and this would strengthen the euro because fewer unemployed people are beneficial for the economy.


GBP/USD
The British Manufacturing PMI came out slightly better than analysts anticipated and this triggered some mild Pound strength but soon after the release, the US Dollar erased the small Pound gains and the pair started to move south.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved below 1.5420 once again and then returned for a perfect re-test which resulted in a bounce lower; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is above price and the momentum belongs to the bears so we anticipate a touch of 1.5340 support. If the Relative Strength Index will become oversold by the time price reaches support, we expect small bullish bounces; the extent of these bounces is likely to be limited.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to slightly decrease from the previous 59.1 to 59.0. This is a leading indicator of economic health which usually has a medium impact on the currency but higher numbers are considered beneficial. Half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT, Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee and the impact on the currency market could be strong, depending on his attitude and answers. Caution is recommended.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FIRST U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE WEEK DECIDES DIRECTION

EUR/USD
Forex News: The Spanish unemployment numbers came out better than analysts expected but the event did not produce euro strength and the day had mixed price action, with no side being in clear control.

Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart it can be seen that price created minor support at 1.1155 and this level now represents the first obstacle in front of falling prices. Currently the pair is trapped between the mentioned support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is angled downward, suggesting that we will see further bearish action. If price moves above the moving average, we will most likely see a touch of 1.1245; otherwise the target remains the zone around 1.1100.

Fundamental Outlook
Europe will release its Retail Sales numbers today at 10:00 am GMT; a small decrease from the previous 0.3% to 0.2% is expected and this would weaken the euro but the event is not always a huge market mover. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non Farm Employment is released, showing the change in the number of employed people according to Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) which is a privately owned company. Although the impact is not as strong as the one of the Government data which comes out 2 days later, higher numbers than the anticipated 219K can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
A better than anticipated value of the British Construction PMI didn’t have a strong bullish impact on the Pound and yesterday price came in close vicinity of support before bouncing higher.

Technical Outlook
Similar to the euro, the sterling is trapped between horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the moving average will be surpassed, price will find resistance at 1.5420, followed by 1.5460 but the pair is under bearish pressure and this increases the chances of a break of 1.5340 support. Since the technical picture is not very clear, a lot will depend on the economic data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the services sector. The indicator can have a mild impact especially if the actual number will be close to analysts’ expectations of 57.6. The U.S. employment data is likely to have a stronger impact on the pair than the Services PMI.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL. BUCKLE UP FOR DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD
Forex News: The bears scored a major victory yesterday and took price significantly lower, below the last important support. The economic data released had little impact on price action.

Technical Outlook
The support zone around 1.1100 was broken decisively yesterday and this means that price will not encounter notable support until 1.0765 is reached (visible on a Monthly chart). This level was last touched in 2003 so its importance cannot be assessed; the fact that it is far away from price also makes it less important at the moment. For the time being the bears are in control and we expect further downside movement after brief retracements.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECB will announce the interest rate at 12:45 pm GMT but because no change is anticipated (0.05%), the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later will be the day’s main event. Mario Draghi will discuss the reasons which determined the rate decision and will probably offer insights into the bond buying program. The single currency is likely to have a strong reaction to Draghi’s comments so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD
The Pound also weakened against the US Dollar and support was broken; a weaker British Services PMI also contributed to the drop.

Technical Outlook
Price moved through 1.5340 and 1.5300 with ease before pausing at 1.5260, making the medium term outlook bearish. We expect further downside movement after a brief stall at the current level. The Relative Strength Index is oversold and this increases the chances of bullish price action but the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected); the last few rate announcements didn’t create a lot of volatility for the Pound, mainly because nobody is expecting a rate change and the BoE is not hinting towards such a change. We expect the same for today’s release but beware of any surprises.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NON FARM PAYROLLS RELEASE

EUR/USD
Forex news: The euro had another rough day yesterday on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments. The interest rate remained unchanged so the event went mostly unnoticed but the ECB press conference generated strong moves; the euro was initially strengthened by improved economic projections but soon after it dropped to fresh lows.

Technical Outlook
The bullish impulse seen at the beginning of the press conference took the pair into the level at 1.1114 which has now turned into resistance, considering that price bounced there. The bears remain in control and the pair is still under pressure, with support located at 1.1000. This is a psychological level (big round number), but also a technical support because yesterday’s drop stopped there. Today’s direction will be mostly dependent on the U.S. Employment numbers.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Non Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to post a change of 240K compared with last month’s 257K. Job creation is tightly correlated with spending levels and that’s why rising employment is considered bullish for the US Dollar. The release creates strong volatility more often than not, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar had a quiet day; the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and this contributed to the lack of strong movement.

Technical Outlook
The pair moved and remained below 1.5260 which is now short term resistance. The Relative Strength Index is moving above its 30 level, coming from overbought territory and this favors bullish pullbacks but we don’t expect the bulls to show a lot of strength unless the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls offer surprises. The first support is located at 1.5200 but the day’s bias depends on the U.S. employment data.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial news releases so the main event comes from the United States in the form of the Non Farm Payrolls.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES

EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff.

Technical Outlook
Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.

Fundamental Outlook
Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report.

Technical Outlook
The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PULLBACKS COMPLETE, SELLING PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD
Forex News: The euro posted modest gains against the US Dollar during the first part of yesterday’s trading session after hitting its lowest level since September 2003. However, in the second part of the session, the Dollar regained most of its strength.

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s climb cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart and this allows further bearish movement, with 1.0820 being the first support zone. The bias remains negative for a break of the mentioned support, while first resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above it would suggest that the bulls are staging a deeper retracement but would not make the overall trend bullish.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECOFIN meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The impact of the meetings on the euro may be mild but surprises can occur, so caution is always recommended when this type of events take place.


GBP/USD
The Pound gained yesterday against the greenback and overall we had a bullish day but the downtrend remained intact and the climb was just a much-needed pullback.

Technical Outlook
Although the bulls took price higher yesterday, the pair remains in a clear downtrend and we anticipate the bearish movement to resume. The first target is located at 1.5030, which is now minor support; the overbought condition of the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) indicator will increase the chances of moves south. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first resistance and a place where downwards movement may resume.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee. The testimony is scheduled at 10:35 am GMT and the impact is unclear, depending on the matters discussed during the meeting and on the Governor’s attitude.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND PAUSES BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH SOUTH

EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar outperformed the euro for yet another day and important support was breached. Brief bullish pullbacks were seen but overall the bears are in clear control.

Technical Outlook
The level at 1.0765 was last touched in 2003 but it seems price is reacting to it because, as we saw yesterday, the pair traded above and below it successively. The main strength belongs to the bears and we expect the downtrend to continue but the first barrier in front of falling prices is located at 1.0720 (this is minor support and we expect it to be broken). A move back above 1.0765 would suggest that price is likely to move higher, close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at a Conference organized in Frankfurt by the Center of Financial Studies. The early hour of the speech (8:00 am GMT) could cause limited impact on the currency market, but surprises can occur so caution is recommended nonetheless.


GBP/USD
Yesterday’s price action was mixed; the bears managed to take price into short-term support but they ran out of steam before being able to break it. This might be a sign that the downtrend is stalling.

Technical Outlook
The pair formed a double bottom at 1.5030. This is a bullish chart pattern and suggests that further upside movement might follow but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is likely to offer resistance and to push price lower if touched. The first horizontal resistance is located at 1.5130 but keep in mind the overall bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production is released today at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with the previous 0.1%. The manufacturing sector is a major part of the British economy and increases could lead to a stronger Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, an estimate of U.K.’s Gross Domestic Product is released; the previous estimate was 0.7% and again, higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: CAN THE U.S. RETAIL SALES CHANGE THE SHORT-TERM BIAS?

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the decline continued and the pair dropped more than 140 pips, moving below 1.0600. This is one of the sharpest falls since the pair’s “birth” and the bulls have no answer for it so far.

Technical Outlook
Both the Relative Strength index and the Stochastic are oversold but that is not news anymore and if a bounce higher occurs, it will not be because of this condition of the oscillators. Price paused yesterday at 1.0560 so this level will represent minor support, while psychological support sits at 1.0500. In early 2003 price bounced higher from the mentioned level but we cannot be certain how it will react this time. The bias remains negative.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:30 pm GMT, the United States will release the Retail Sales numbers, which are usually very important for US Dollar strength because sales made at retail level represent the biggest part of overall consumer spending. The expected change is 0.5%, a hefty increase from last month’s -0.8% and higher than anticipated values will be beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD
The British Manufacturing Production numbers disappointed yesterday and this, coupled with US Dollar strength, generated another sharp selloff and a break of support.

Technical Outlook
The double bottom formed at 1.5030 was broken yesterday and the pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the main picture remains bearish. However, this does not exclude some sort of retracements higher but a touch of the first potential resistance (1.5030) is not likely to happen today unless surprises occur. The next support is the important level at 1.4830.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak today at 12:45 pm GMT at the Advanced Manufacturing Research Center. The speech is not expected to have huge impact but be cautious nonetheless.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BOTH PAIRS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE, TARGETING NEW LOWS

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair posted the biggest rally in a month, after an almost perfect bounce off 1.0500 support. The U.S. Retail Sales showed a slowdown and this contributed to the bullish movement seen yesterday.

Technical Outlook
For the first time in a long while the Stochastic oscillator went above its 80 level, suggesting the pair is overbought. On top of this, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seems to offer good resistance so far and these factors combined with the strength of the downtrend will most likely trigger another drop. The first tested support is located at 1.0500 while potential support sits at 1.0560.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important economic indicators come from the United States today as well: at 12:30 pm GMT, the Producer Price index comes out, showing potential changes in the price charged by manufacturers for their goods. The indicator has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be eventually paid by the client) and that is why values above the forecast 0.2% are viewed as beneficial for the greenback.
At 2:00 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey, which is expected to post a reading of 95.6. Higher numbers will probably strengthen the US Dollar because consumer sentiment is tightly correlated with consumer spending.


GBP/USD
The Pound also strengthened against the greenback but the bulls could not sustain the climb and all gains were erased once resistance was touched.

Technical Outlook
So far the level at 1.5030 was considered potential resistance but the way price bounced yesterday, turns it into tested resistance thus we might see additional rejections if the pair climbs to touch it again. Minor support is located at 1.4890 but we expect it to be broken today and the pair to continue on its way to 1.4830 major support. The first potential resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Because the United Kingdom did not schedule important news releases for today, the movement of the pair will be mainly affected by the U.S. events mentioned earlier.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR SLOWS ITS ASSAULT: POSSIBLE TREND CONSOLIDATION TO FOLLOW

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although the U.S economic data released Friday disappointed somewhat, the pair continued to descend and the greenback extended its gains against the euro.

Technical Outlook
The important support level at 1.0500 was broken Friday and now price has returned to re-test it from below. If the current encounter will result in a bounce lower, 1.0500 will become resistance, with the potential to reject price in the future. A move above the current level will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which combined with the level at 1.0560 will create a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Industrial Production numbers are released at 1:15 pm GMT but this indicator usually has a strong impact on the greenback only if a hefty difference between forecast and actual number is shown. The forecast for today’s release is 0.3% while last month’s value was 0.2%.

At 6:45 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the SZ Finance Day 2015 “The Future of the Finance Industry – Between Growth and Regulation” summit. The impact on the single currency may be strong but it all depends on the subjects under discussion and Draghi’s attitude. Caution is recommended if trading during his speech.


GBP/USD
Similar to the euro, the sterling posted big losses against the greenback and the pair had another strong bearish day, dropping for almost 200 pips.

Technical Outlook
Price paused around 1.4710 after a sharp fall but this minor support is likely to be broken today given the massive bear strength exhibited lately. However, the chances of bullish retracements have increased because price traveled a long distance south in a very short period. The oscillators are moving upwards, coming out of oversold territory but this does not suggest a reversal, just brief pullbacks, probably followed by further downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic news releases and this fact might generate slow, ranging price action.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH RETRACEMENTS COMPLETE, BEARS MIGHT TAKE OVER AGAIN

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the downtrend took a breather and the bulls managed to take the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Despite yesterday’s climb, the downtrend remains intact.

Technical Outlook
If the break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be sustained, the bulls will encounter the first resistance at 1.0640, followed by 1.0720. However, we must keep in mind that a strong downtrend is still in place and this makes a new encounter with 1.0500 highly probable; the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both close to their respective overbought levels, a fact that increases the possibility of bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German analysts and professional investors about the state of the economy. The forecast is 58.9, an increase from the previous 53.0 and usually higher values are beneficial for the euro.

The United States release the Building Permits at 12:30 pm GMT, an indicator that shows the state of the construction sector because any new building requires a permit. Higher numbers than the anticipated 1.07M usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
Similar to the euro, the Pound gained against the greenback yesterday but resistance was not broken and the climb was not accompanied by strong momentum.

Technical Outlook
The important level at 1.4830 sits in front of price but it wasn’t yet tested as resistance; in other words, it can become resistance but for the time being it is simply a place where price might reverse. However, this level combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone which will be hard to break to the upside considering the strength of the downtrend. The overall bias remains bearish and we consider that further downside movement will soon follow, with 1.4700 zone as target.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will have another lackluster day in terms of economic and financial news releases thus price action will be mainly driven by the US events and by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING EYED FOR HINTS ON POTENTIAL RATE HIKE

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey disappointed, the euro climbed yesterday, reaching resistance. Once that happened, bearish pressure started to mount and rejection was shown.

Technical Outlook
Price remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for almost the entire day but the resistance at 1.0640 couldn’t be surpassed. Both oscillators are in the upper part of the range and some rejection candles were formed (pin bar on a four-hour chart), so we expect a new leg of the downtrend to begin. The first barrier is represented by the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average and once this support is broken, we expect the pair to reach 1.0500 support rather fast. A move above the current resistance would open the door for touch of 1.0720.

Fundamental Outlook
Today’s important events come from the United States: at 6:00 pm GMT the Fed will announce the Interest Rate (no change expected) and will publish the Monetary Policy Statement together with the FOMC Economic Projections. Half an hour later, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which is expected to be the day’s biggest market mover, especially if she will offer hints about the next rate change. During such speeches, caution is recommended because the market can react wildly.


GBP/USD
The pair dropped for almost the entire day after making another attempt to break the level at 1.4830. The drop wasn’t influenced by major fundamental events and was mostly technical.

Technical Outlook
The level at 1.4830 is now tested resistance and we can expect price to bounce lower if it will touch it again. For the time being it looks like the bears regained control and the possibility of a break of 1.4700 support zone has increased. However the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are moving close to oversold and this could mean that price will climb briefly before breaking support. If this is true, the first resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook
The British unemployment numbers (Claimant Count Change) come out at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the fluctuation in the number of people that applied for unemployment related benefits during the previous month and usually has a strong impact on the Pound. Lower numbers than the anticipated -30.6k are normally beneficial for the British currency.

At the same time the Bank of England will announce the votes on the latest Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event is likely to go mostly unnoticed.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: YELLEN SHAKES THE MARKET. RETRACEMENTS EXPECTED

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed the first strong climb in a long while as Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed concerns about low inflation, given the Dollar’s strength. The Fed kept the rate unchanged but Yellen also mentioned that a rate hike remains possible after the April meeting.

Technical Outlook
Price broke through both 1.0640 and 1.0720 levels of resistance and further bullish action is a distinct possibility, with 1.0900 as target. However we must keep in mind that a strong downtrend is still in place and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory. This makes us believe that price will return to re-test the recently broken level at 1.0720 before it can head higher. A bearish break of this level could mean the up move is exhausted and the sellers might regain control.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECB will announce today at 10:15 am GMT their Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) which is the amount of money they will create and use as loans to European Banks. The expected sum is 40.0 Billion and the impact of the release is not yet known.

At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to show an increase to 7.2 from the previous 5.2. Such a value or a higher one will generate additional US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD
The pair also moved north during Yellen’s speech but the British economic data released previously during the day was disappointing and this could mean the up move will be short-lived.

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.4830 was broken easily yesterday and the same is true for the level at 1.4890 but this was mostly due to Dollar weakness, not Pound strength. Today we expect an encounter with 1.4890 considering the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and the fact that strong bullish moves in a downtrend are bound to retrace before a new direction can be decided. First resistance is located at 1.5030.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day, hence price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US releases.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY SETTLES IN, CHOPPY PRICE ACTION CONTINUES

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair continued to climb yesterday during the Asian session but the start of the European session marked the beginning of a new bearish move which lasted for almost the entire day. Volatility is high and the pair is prone to irregular movement.

Technical Outlook
After moving up through several resistance levels, the pair broke them all to the downside before finally coming to a stop on the support located at 1.0640. Volatility is high and price action is choppy as seen from yesterday’s sharp reversal. The picture is unclear but the Stochastic is oversold and price is struggling at support so another move north is not out of the question. On the other hand, a break of the current level might take price into the next support which is located around 1.0580.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is the second day of the EU Economic Summit but other than that, the fundamental scene is calm and no major news comes out, so we might see a calm end to a wild trading week.


GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar pair had a wild day as well, moving through several S/R levels with ease. The Dollar losses were almost completely erased and the bears showed they still have enough underlying strength which shouldn’t be underestimated.

Technical Outlook
The support around 1.4700 prevents the pair from dropping further for the time being. However, we expect the level to be broken today and price to continue to move south towards the low at 1.4635. Keep in mind that price action is choppy and a trend is not present on the lower and medium time frames. Usually in a ranging environment price reacts to oversold /overbought conditions better than in a strong trend so look for bullish movement if the oscillators will descend below their lower levels.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news releases for the day so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT. BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the pair returned above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, continuing the bullish move started by Yellen’s comments; however major resistance wasn’t breached.

Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.0900 remains intact and both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are indicating overbought conditions. This makes us believe that today price will return close to the support at 1.0640 or at least it will touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a strong break of 1.0900 would make the outlook bullish for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook
ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy today at 2:00 pm GMT before the European Parliament. The speech is expected to create strong movement for the euro and also to offer hints regarding future direction. As always, caution is recommended during such speeches.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a tremendous day against the US Dollar Friday and the pair traveled to the upside more than 200 pips.

Technical Outlook
Although lately the Dollar is losing ground against its major counterparts, there still is enough underlying strength to stage a descent into the dynamic support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price descends but bounces at 1.4890, we expect a climb into the resistance located at 1.5030. Keep in mind that currently the oscillators are close to overbought and this increases the chances of bearish moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so we might have a slow Monday ahead.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP FOR U.S. AND BRITISH INFLATION NUMBERS

EUR/USD
Forex News: The euro outperformed the US Dollar yesterday and a big role in this move was played by Mario Draghi’s optimism regarding the ECB’s bond buying program (QE) and its positive impact on economic recovery.

Technical Outlook
The pair breached the resistance located at 1.0900 but it soon returned to re-test the broken level. Considering Draghi’s optimism, we might see an extended upside move, especially if this re-test results in a bounce. If this scenario comes true, the first target for the pair is the resistance level located at 1.1000 but as a counter-argument, the Relative Strength Index is overbought so a move below 1.0900 could mean the bulls are wavering and that price may return in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
The euro will be affected today by the release of the French Manufacturing PMI (scheduled at 8:00 am GMT) and the German Manufacturing PMI released half an hour later. The French indicator is expected to post a value of 48.9 while the forecast for the German indicator is 51.5. Better numbers are usually beneficial for the euro but if the difference between actual and forecast is not significant, the impact will be mild.

On the Dollar side, a very important indicator is released today: the Core version of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This version excludes food and energy from calculation and tends to be the more important one because it reflects more accurately the state of the inflation. The expected change is 0.1% while last month it showed a change of 0.2%.


GBP/USD
Price action was choppy yesterday with moves both to the upside and to the downside. No significant advances were made but we saw a bounce near support.

Technical Outlook
The pair came in close vicinity of the support at 1.4830 and breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average before heading higher. This shows us that support is holding for the time being and suggests that we might see an extended move to the upside which will probably find resistance at 1.5030. First minor resistance in located around 1.4990.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to post a change of 0.1% compared with last month’s 0.3%. Lately British inflation has been dropping and another move close to negative territory could cause Pound weakness. As always the pair’s direction will also be directly influenced by the U.S. events.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BEARS MAKING THEIR RUN FOR DOWNTREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD
Forex News: American inflation was yesterday’s main market mover as it showed better than expected numbers and triggered a bounce at resistance. The US Dollar gained back some of the losses and is now testing support.

Technical Outlook
Yesterday price touched both the resistance at 1.1000 and the support at 1.0900 and is now approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this dynamic support would imply that the bears are preparing for an extended move down which will probably extend into the support located at 1.0780. On the other hand, a bounce at the current support would make 1.1000 the immediate target.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released and anticipated to show an increase to 107.4 from the previous value of 106.8. The survey has a large sample of about 7,000 businesses that offer their opinion on economic conditions and usually has a strong impact on the euro (better than expected numbers strengthen it). Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT, the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) are released. The consensus is a 0.5% change, which is a big drop from last month’s 2.8% and if even lower numbers are shown, the greenback might be negatively affected.


GBP/USD
British inflation showed slowdown while the U.S. CPI posted an increase and this set the stage for a bearish day. Although the sellers managed to take price lower, the day was choppy and a lot of whipsaws occurred on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook
Price bounced at 1.4990 short term resistance and broke below the 50 period Exponential Moving average on an hourly chart. This suggests that the up move might be exhausted and that further downside will follow. First support and barrier in front of falling price is located at 1.4830 and if the oscillators will show oversold when price touches it, we expect some sort of bullish retracement before a strong attempt to break this level.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so we expect price direction to be primarily influenced by the technical aspect and by the U.S. data.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED

EUR/USD
Forex News: American data disappointed yesterday while the German survey posted a better than expected value and this generated a bullish move during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However resistance couldn’t be broken and the pair didn’t show clear direction.

Technical Outlook
The fact that price bounced for the second time at 1.1000 resistance could suggest that the bulls have ran out of steam and the next move will take the pair below 1.0900 support. This time the hourly Stochastic is overbought and this will make a descent easier. The first barrier is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so if this dynamic support will be broken decisively the chances of a move below 1.0900 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT with an expected number of 291K. The jobs situation is always important for the U.S. economy but because this indicator is released every week, its impact tends to be mild. However, a lower number is considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
For almost the entire day yesterday the pair moved in a jagged line. Price action was choppy and support is still holding.

Technical Outlook
For the time being the direction is unclear for the pair but on the hourly chart we notice a pin bar which is a candle that acts as a warning sign of reversal. A pin on a higher time frame would be even more important but the pair seems to react to the hourly pin as well so we expect further downside movement today. The first support is located at 1.4830 but if the level is reached and price bounces again, this would suggest that the ranging period is still not over.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Retail Sales are released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from last month’s -0.3%. Such a climb would be beneficial for the sterling and would probably take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 5:30 pm GMT, BoE Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech about his role as Chair of the Financial Stability Board. As always, special attention should be paid to speeches of heads of central banks and caution should be used.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: PREPARING FOR A BREAKOUT AT THE END OF A RANGING WEEK

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair climbed briefly above 1.1000 but the break soon proved to be a false one and the bears took over for the remaining of the day. The U.S. Unemployment Claims posted a better than expected reading and the greenback strengthened as a result.

Technical Outlook
Price is currently testing the support at 1.0900 but if sellers can take it below this level we are likely to see downtrend resumption. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are angled downwards, suggesting that the bearish move is still far from over and price pierced the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in a decisive fashion, so at the moment all hints suggest that price will continue south. Of course a bounce at the current level would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook
The Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released today at 12:30 pm GMT. Although this is the least important out of the three versions, it can still have a strong impact on the US Dollar. The anticipated value is 2.4% while the previous was 2.2% and higher values are beneficial for the greenback.

At 7:45 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a Press Conference in San Francisco. Audience questions are expected and this makes the speech more important but the late hour might have an influence on volatility.


GBP/USD
The British Retail Sales posted a better value than analysts expected and this generated Pound strength during the first part of yesterday’s trading session. However resistance proved too strong and the bulls ran out of steam so the pair moved south after a bounce at 1.4990.

Technical Outlook
The important support at 1.4830 sits again in front of falling price. Our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of this level but a bounce followed by a move higher is not out of the question considering the fact that the pair is currently in a ranging period. If the support will be broken we would like to see it re-tested from below before we can consider a true breakout.

Fundamental Outlook
The British fundamental scene lacks major events today so price direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT. GERMAN INFLATION EYED

EUR/USD
Forex News: The Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a slightly lower value than analysts expected and this triggered a climb Friday but the pair returned below 1.0900 late during the session, helped by Yellen’s comments.

Technical Outlook
The pair returned below 1.0900 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Stochastic is crossing downwards at the top of its range, close to overbought. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today price will travel south, towards the minor support located at 1.0780. If price moves back above 1.0900 the first resistance will be offered by 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released, showing the change in German inflation. The consensus is 0.4% which is lower than the previous 0.9% so we might see euro weakness if analysts’ forecast comes true and the opposite is true for a higher value.


GBP/USD
Friday the pair continued to move in a range and neither side managed to take clear control. The disappointing American GDP generated some US Dollar weakness but nothing substantial.

Technical Outlook
Price is moving sideways without clear direction and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat so our bias is neutral on the pair until a clear break occurs. The Stochastic is crossing downwards coming out of overbought territory and this might create some bearish pressure but no major moves are expected until the range is broken.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Net Lending to Individuals is released at 8:30 am GMT showing the change in total credit given to consumers. A higher value than the anticipated 2.5B suggests that people are comfortable spending money and this is usually beneficial for the Pound but the indicator has a medium impact so we don’t expect major moves at the time of the release.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION TAKES CENTER-STAGE

EUR/USD
Forex News: German inflation posted a better number than analysts expected but the value was still lower than last month and this coupled with technical reasons generated a slow but bearish day.

Technical Outlook
Price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.0900 for almost the entire day, but 1.0780 minor support was not threatened. Today we expect an encounter with this level but if the oscillators will be oversold at the time, the chances of a bounce higher will increase. For a break to be considered valid we would like to see the level re-tested from below.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is released at 9:00 am GMT: the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation for the European economy and has a strong impact on the single currency. ECB’s target for inflation is just below 2% so the current level is considered too low and numbers below analysts’ expectation of -0.3% would further weaken the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence comes out and is expected to post a value of 96.6, almost unchanged from last month’s 96.4; however, a higher number is considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The British data was in line with analysts’ expectations and didn’t have a strong impact on the pair’s movement which slid lower yesterday.

Technical Outlook
After moving below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average price broke the important support located at 1.4830. This break was long anticipated but in order to consider it a true break, price must re-test the level from below and currently it is headed up, towards the broken level. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, 1.4830 will become resistance once again and the chances of further downside movement will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the British Current Account is released and anticipated to show a value of -21.2B. A higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound but the release has mixed impact. At the same time the Final version of U.K.’s Gross Domestic Product is announced but no change is expected (0.5%) so the event might go mostly unnoticed. However, a higher value will likely strengthen the Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FIRST LOOK INTO U.S. EMPLOYMENT SITUATION

EUR/USD
Forex News: The European Consumer Price Index came out with a value close to analysts’ expectations and the release didn’t create strong movement but the pair moved south for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session. U.S. Consumer Confidence improved, contributing to the US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook
The minor support at 1.0780 was broken yesterday and the bears seem to regain control over the pair so we expect to see further downside movement during the days to come. Both oscillators are oversold and this could mean that price will touch 1.0780 from below before a stronger bearish move can occur. First level of importance and potential resistance is now 1.0780 while support sits in the zone around 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT we will get the first look into the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. The report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month but it is not as important as the Government report which comes out Friday. Nonetheless, a higher number than the anticipated 226K will most likely strengthen the Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD
After moving slowly for the most part of the day, the pair rallied in the afternoon and managed to climb back above 1.4830 resistance, shifting the balance in favor of the bulls.

Technical Outlook
The break of 1.4830 could very well be a false move which can be easily reversed but if the bulls can maintain the pair above the mentioned level after a re-test then we are likely to see an extended climb. On the other hand, a quick move below 1.4830 and below the Exponential Moving Average would mean that yesterday’s break of resistance was just a single impulse and we will likely see a move close to 1.4710 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 54.5, slightly better than last month’s 54.1. This is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the British Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s first look into U.S. employment revealed that the pace of American job creation might be slowing down. The worse than expected value of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change triggered dollar weakness which allowed the pair to climb in the second part of yesterday’s trading session.

Technical Outlook
The pair is now testing 1.0780 from below again but price action is characterized lately by sharp reversals and choppy movement so it appears like the market is waiting for a catalyst to start moving in a clear direction. That catalyst could very well be Friday’s U.S. Non Farm Payrolls so until then we could see more of this uncertainty. The oscillators don’t offer a lot of hints about future direction but as long as price is below the Moving Average and below 1.0780 we slightly favor the short side.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Trade Balance is announced today at 12:30 pm GMT and could be the day’s main market mover. The indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher number is usually beneficial for the greenback. The forecast is -2.0B, better than last month’s -2.5B.


GBP/USD
The British Manufacturing PMI came out close to analysts’ expectations and the figure didn’t have a strong impact on the Pound. However the US Dollar suffered from a disappointing jobs situation.

Technical Outlook
Lately the pair is moving above and below 1.4830 without choosing a clear direction. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average coupled with the mentioned level forms a confluence zone which is hard to break especially because neither side is in control. If a bounce occurs at the current level, we anticipate a move lower, into the support located at 1.4710.

Fundamental Outlook
British Construction data is released at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector but the release tends to have mixed impact, depending on the difference between actual number and forecast. Today’s anticipated number is 59.7 and usually higher numbers strengthen the Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: GOOD FRIDAY AFFECTS VOLATILITY, U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS RESTORE IT

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although U.S. data came out better than analysts had anticipated, the greenback lost ground against most of its counterparts. The euro was no exception and the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.

Technical Outlook
The pair climbed strongly but it is now showing signs of rejection at 1.0900 resistance with both oscillators being overbought. This suggests that price will retrace lower even if 1.0900 is going to be broken. However, we expect a slow day until the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released, because most banks around the world are closed, celebrating Good Friday. The pair’s direction for the remainder of the day will be dependent on the U.S. jobs report outcome.

Fundamental Outlook
As mentioned above, banks around the world are closed today and this might translate into slow price action until the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is considered the most important jobs related data and the impact is almost always huge. A higher number than the anticipated 247K will most likely strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD
The pair struggled for almost the entire day to move away from 1.4830 level but it failed to do so even when a worse than expected British Construction PMI was posted.

Technical Outlook
As long as the pair doesn’t move decisively away from 1.4830 the picture will remain unclear and uncertainty will be present. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, the oscillators don’t show an extreme condition and all moves are quickly reversed so we expect choppy price action until the U.S. jobs report is released.

Fundamental Outlook
British banks are closed today, celebrating Good Friday and no economic indicators are released by the United Kingdom. The day’s highlight will be the U.S. Non-Farm Employment report.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: CAN THE US DOLLAR RECOVER FROM THE DAMAGE MADE BY THE NFP?

EUR/USD
Forex News: As anticipated, Friday price action was slow until the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. The disappointing figure of 126K (forecast 246K) triggered dollar weakness and a substantial climb.

Technical Outlook
Friday’s climb took price into 1.1000 resistance but now rejection signs are present. As we saw late during the last session, price bounced lower and the bulls weren’t able to close the week above resistance. This fact coupled with the overbought position of the oscillators might show that a move south is next. If the negative effects of the U.S. jobs report extend throughout the day, we might see higher prices but the Easter holiday is likely to generate irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook
Major Banks around the world are closed today, celebrating Easter Monday. This will most likely translate into low or alternating volatility, with the only notable release being the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated number is 56.6. Higher figures suggest optimism among purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector and may strengthen the US Dollar but the impact of the release is uncertain considering the holiday.


GBP/USD
The pair was mostly flat Friday before the NFP report came out and afterwards price behaviour was bullish, based on Dollar weakness, not Pound strength.

Technical Outlook
The latest bullish move comes after a period of sideways movement and for the time being it is just a single impulse which might be easily reversed. The day will probably have mixed price action as volatility will be influenced by the Easter holiday. We expect reversals and/or whipsaws on the lower timeframes. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will provide support if price will move south to touch it, which is a very likely scenario, considering the overbought condition of the oscillators.

Fundamental Outlook
British banks one closed today, celebrating Easter Monday and no economic or financial indicators are released.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STILL WEAK, STAGING A COMEBACK

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish but no major moves took place because a big part of the world celebrated Easter and major banks were closed. The U.S. economic data came out close to analysts’ expectations and the impact was mild.

Technical Outlook
The pair remained above 1.1000 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, things that show bullish pressure and suggest that we will see a move into 1.1100 resistance in the near future. Before that can happen, the pair must surpass the minor resistance at 1.1050 but considering the overbought condition of the oscillators, we consider that a move into support is very likely. Support is located at the bullish trend line combined with 1.1000.

Fundamental Outlook
Both the euro and the U.S. Dollar have slow days ahead as no major economic indicators are released. Price action will be driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD
Similar to the EUR/USD, the Pound-Dollar had a bullish day for the most part but price action was pretty slow because British banks were closed in celebration of Easter.

Technical Outlook
Price action is bullish at the moment but bearish pressure increases and we expect a descent into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought and this means the chances of moves south have increased. First major support is located at 1.4830 while first resistance sits at 1.5030.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released and is expected to post a reading of 57.1. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so higher numbers than analysts’ forecast are usually beneficial for the Pound.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTH AHEAD OF FOMC MINUTES

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar managed to erase some of its previous losses and the pair descended below support. The move was mostly generated by technical reasons as no major economic news was released.

Technical Outlook
The level at 1.0900 was breached convincingly yesterday and we expect this break to bring in more sellers, resulting in a move lower. However both oscillators are showing an oversold condition of the market on an hourly chart and price traveled a relatively long distance without retracing. This might suggest that we are going to see a climb into 1.0900 before price heads lower. First support is located at 1.0720 but the FOMC Meeting Minutes will play a major role in today’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Retail Sales come out today at 9:00 am GMT with an expected change of -0.1% compared with last month’s 1.1%. Such a drop would weaken the euro but often the indicator triggers only mild moves. Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the minutes of their latest meeting, containing insights into the reasons which determined the latest interest rate vote. The release is usually accompanied by strong movement manly because the document offers hints about future monetary direction.


GBP/USD
The bears took control of the pair yesterday and we saw a perfect touch of 1.4830 support. The British Services PMI posted a better than expected value but this didn’t strengthen the Pound enough to prevent the drop.

Technical Outlook
After touching 1.4830 the pair quickly bounced higher but this small bullish move is likely to be short-lived. Our bias is slightly bearish at the moment and we anticipate a move below 1.4830 but lately all moves are quickly reversed and price is not trending strongly so another move into 1.4980 is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the FOMC minutes released in the afternoon.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MINUTES ADD DOLLAR STRENGTH. MARKET STILL CHOPPY

EUR/USD
Forex News: Before the Fed released the minutes of their latest meeting, the pair moved on an upwards path but found resistance and bounced lower. The US Dollar strengthened at the time of the FOMC release although the document revealed that officials see risks coming from policies overseas and a June rate hike doesn’t have majority support.

Technical Outlook
The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance yesterday as seen from the bounce lower. The control belongs to the sellers and we expect at least a touch of 1.0720 but price is likely to bounce higher if this support is reached, especially if the oscillators will enter oversold. Resistance is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but our bias is bearish for the moment.

Fundamental Outlook
The release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims is the day’s most notable event. The expected number is 283K and lower values are beneficial for the greenback. The time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT but the impact is usually mild because this indicator is released every week.


GBP/USD
Price action was mostly bullish during the first part of yesterday and the pair moved north after a small dip below 1.4830. The FOMC meeting minutes added strength to the greenback but even before the release the pair started to move downwards.

Technical Outlook
The resistance zone around 1.4980 proves very important for short term prices action and yesterday’s bounce confirms this. The pair is ranging lately and it seems the next destination is 1.4830 once more. Our view is neutral on the pair for the time being but we hope the BoE rate decision will generate a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce their interest rate. The event will probably create just some irregular volatility and not strong directional moves because the chances of a rate change (currently 0.50%) are close to zero.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT BROKEN, AIMING FOR NEW LOWS

EUR/USD
Forex News: Although the Unemployment Claims came out with a value close to analysts’ expectations, the US Dollar strengthened against the euro and the pair moved south for the most part of the day. Support was breached and the bears are in control of short term direction.

Technical Outlook
The support at 1.0720 was surpassed during yesterday’s drop and we expect price action to remain bearish throughout the day. As long as the pair remains below 1.0720, the first target is represented by 1.0500 although such a strong move might be too much for a single day. On a four hour chart both oscillators show oversold conditions and this means that we might see bullish moves in the form of retracements.

Fundamental Outlook
The fundamental scene is slow today for both the euro and the US Dollar so price movement will be mainly affected by technical factors.


GBP/USD
As expected the Bank of England didn’t modify the interest rate so the event didn’t generate strong moves but US Dollar strength took the pair lower.

Technical Outlook
Price moved below 1.4830 and then re-tested it from below successfully, a fact which shows that we are dealing with a true break of support. The short term bias remains negative and we expect an encounter with 1.4710 followed by the low at 1.4635. The oscillators don’t show an extreme oversold condition so there is still room for price to move south but some pullbacks are not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.4% compared with last month’s -0.5%. Such a change would most likely strengthen the Pound.
At 2:00 am GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released, offering hints about the health of the economy. The previous estimate was 0.6% and higher values are seen as bullish for the Pound.