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  #121  
Old 17-12-2014, 16:03
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FOREX NEWS: HUGE DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR WITH THE FED MEETINGS IN THE SPOTLIGHT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday both the German Manufacturing PMI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys showed values which exceeded analysts’ expectations and the single currency strengthened as a result, breaking resistance.


Technical Outlook
On an hourly chart the pair has become overbought as signaled by the Relative Strength Index and this suggests that price might move below the level of 1.2500, for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current test of recently broken resistance turns into a bounce higher, the first target is located at 1.2575.

Fundamental Outlook
We have an important day for the greenback: the first event is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1% while last month we saw a change of 0.0%. Usually an increase in inflation is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar and could take the pair lower.

In the evening we have a cluster of events which will most likely have a tremendous impact on the greenback: at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Economic Projections for the next 2 years and a Rate Statement which will contain insights into the reasons which determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which might be the biggest market mover of the day so extra caution is recommended.


GBP/USD
The British CPI dropped to 1.0%, a fact which only weakened the Pound briefly before the bulls took over, taking the pair above resistance.


Technical Outlook
The break of 1.5750 couldn’t be sustained and price soon moved below the level, showing rejection on a four hour chart. The pin bar created right on resistance suggests that price encountered a strong level which cannot be broken decisively at least for the moment, but we have a day filled with important news releases and we are likely to see strong moves which will decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of -19.8K while last month’s number was -20.4K. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related social help and a higher number suggests that the jobs market is contracting so the Pound will be negatively affected by a rise in jobless claims. At the same time, a breakdown of the MPC votes on the latest interest rate is released and this is a good opportunity for traders to see if the BOE is changing its stance on the interest rate. The US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #122  
Old 20-12-2014, 03:50
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FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK ON A BEARISH NOTE



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken against the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session and the pair touched 1.2280 support. Both the German and American economic indicators posted readings close to analysts’ expectations and this dampened their impact.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved easily below 1.2360 and continued south to touch 1.2280 although the Relative Strength Index was trading close to oversold territory for the most part of the day. At the moment price is showing rejection off of 1.2280 support and the Relative Strength Index is starting to move upwards so we anticipate a day with bullish movement which may find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A clear break of support may bring in additional sellers.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major news events for the Euro and the US Dollar, so price direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD
British Retail Sales posted a surprising 1.6% increase while analysts’ expectations were just 0.3%. This created Pound strength and a bullish day.


Technical Outlook
After moving below the support at 1.5590 and coming very close to 1.5540 support, the pair started to move north, back above 1.5590. The Relative Strength Index touched the 30 level, becoming oversold and this played a major role from a technical point of view. Today we expect mixed price action, without significant advances; if the Relative Strength Index will become overbought during the day, the sellers might take the pair lower, with 1.5590 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 9:30 am GMT, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced. This is the amount of new debt held by the central and local governments and a higher number is viewed as detrimental for the Pound; the expected value is 14.8B while last month the debt was at 7.1B.
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  #123  
Old 22-12-2014, 14:06
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FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE BRINGS CHOPPY PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD
Friday the bears continued to take price lower, breaking 1.2280 support on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall we saw unidirectional price action, without whipsaws or sudden reversals.


Technical Outlook
We are entering Christmas Week and Mondays are known to be slow days, especially if no major news is released. The Relative Strength Index has been moving for an extended period close to the 30 level which suggests oversold and the current bear run seems a bit overextended so we expect bullish retracements. However, keep in mind the pair is in a clear downtrend from a short and long term perspective so further downside action is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Existing Home Sales are announced at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the day’s only notable release. An increase in home sales suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the greenback but the indicator has a medium impact on price action. Today’s forecast is 5.21M and higher values will probably trigger limited dollar strength.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar gained against the Pound as well but the pair’s descent wasn’t as substantial as seen in the EUR/USD pair and support was not broken.


Technical Outlook
The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. Today we anticipate another encounter with the mentioned level but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index might move below the 30 level, suggesting an oversold condition. Considering the pair is not in a strong trend from a short term perspective, we anticipate a bounce higher towards the 50 period EMA if 1.5590 is not clearly broken.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price action will be driven by technical factors and by the US house market data.
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  #124  
Old 23-12-2014, 15:43
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FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION WITH BOTH PAIRS UNDER PRESSURE



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair moved north yesterday on the back of a disappointing value of the US Existing Home Sales but also because the short term downtrend was overextended and in need of a retracement.


Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on a bullish path until 1.2280 is touched but we don’t believe this resistance will be broken today and instead we expect a bounce lower. If the bounce occurs, the first support is represented by the level of 1.2220. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also provide dynamic resistance but keep in mind that winter holidays usually generate irregular movement and technical analysis is not reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Durable Goods Orders are released today at 1:30 pm GMT with an expected change to 3.0% from last month’s 0.3%. Such an increase would suggest an expanding economy and would strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD
Price reversed yesterday after an initial climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw choppy price after for the rest of the day but immediate support was not breached.


Technical Outlook
The pair is under pressure and there’s a distinct possibility of a drop below 1.5590 support but we don’t expect price to travel for an extended distance in one direction. Volatility will probably alternate during the day and we expect price action to be choppy and irregular but a clear break of 1.5590 could take price in close vicinity of 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Current Account is announced today at 9:30 am GMT; this indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher value than the expected -21.1B is considered beneficial for the Pound. At the same time the British Bankers’ Association announces the Mortgage Approvals; the indicator offers insights into the housing market and a higher number than the forecast 37.3K suggests that more houses will be bought in the near future with the help of a mortgage, a fact which normally strengthens the Pound.
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  #125  
Old 24-12-2014, 15:11
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FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION SLOWS DOWN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair dropped substantially yesterday as the US Dollar continued to strengthen and the Euro weakened on the back of speculation that Greece may be headed towards early elections.


Technical Outlook
Short term support at 1.2220 was broken after two small bounces and once this happened, more sellers joined the renewed downtrend. The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the pair is trading well below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition and this makes us believe that price will retrace higher. Keep in mind that today is Christmas Eve and the market will tend to present irregular behavior.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Unemployment Claims are the single notable release of the day, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected number is 291K and an increase in unemployment would suggest that the economy is slowing down and this usually weakens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Current Account disappointed yesterday, showing that the deficit increased and the Pound responded quickly by weakening against the greenback.


Technical Outlook
The pair remained under the level at 1.5590 which turned into resistance as showed by the touch from below which resulted in a bounce lower. The important support at 1.5540 was also broken and this might suggest the end of the ranging period, but the approaching of Christmas might nullify the effect of this break and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see a return back above 1.5540. The Relative Strength Index is also oversold and this may add to the probability of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day and we expect irregular price action, with alternating volatility.
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  #126  
Old 25-12-2014, 15:36
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FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS BRINGS PRICE ACTION TO A HALT



EUR/USD
Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and the economic releases didn’t have a lot of impact. The pair retraced higher and touched short term resistance but a break didn’t occur and instead price bounced lower.


Technical Outlook
Today price action will come to a stop due to the fact that a large part of the world is celebrating Christmas. When the market will open, the pair may present gaps and probably irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook
Many important banks around the world (including American and European banks) will be closed today, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
Similar to our other pair, the GBP/USD retraced higher, following an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index. For the most part of the day price traded above and below 1.5540, without significant advances.


Technical Outlook
As mentioned before, the market is taking a breather today and trading will be suspended. Depending on the world’s time zones, price movement will resume sooner or later and once it does, we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Banks are closed due to the Christmas Holiday and no economic releases are scheduled.

We wish a Mary Christmas to those of you who celebrate this Holiday!
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  #127  
Old 26-12-2014, 08:01
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET RESUMES MOVEMENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: The market was closed yesterday, so price didn’t show any activity and no economic news came out.


Technical Outlook
Even though the market is open today, we still expect price action to be irregular and choppy. The short term resistance at 1.2220 is holding and price bounced lower once it touched it so we expect some downside price action, with 1.2165 being the first minor support.

Fundamental Outlook
Many banks around the world are still closed and no economic indicators are released, a fact which contributes to the day’s low volume and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD
The pair stopped yesterday and no movement was seen as many people around the world celebrated the Christmas Holiday.


Technical Outlook
Wednesday price moved above the level at 1.5540 but we cannot consider this to be a true break as it could be generated by low volume and might not be a real attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair. The main levels to watch today are located at 1.5540 and 1.5590 but keep in mind that price action could be characterized by sharp turns and alternating volatility.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases and British banks are closed today, a fact which will add to the day’s irregular price action.
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  #128  
Old 29-12-2014, 11:22
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FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION ON THE BACK OF A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL ENVIRONMENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the market resumed movement after being paused for Christmas and the pair moved lower, following a bounce on resistance. Overall we had a slow session, with price traveling in a single direction.


Technical Outlook
For the time being price is confined between 1.2165 support and 1.2220 resistance and a break of either one may trigger and extended move in that direction but considering the approaching of the New Year and the lack of economic releases, we may also see false breaks. It’s possible for price to move outside one of the levels but then to run out of steam and return inside, so extra caution is recommended if you are going to trade breakouts.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks important news releases and we expect choppy price action, with low volume and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD
The pair had a very slow day Friday, with price moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which remained flat for the entire day.


Technical Outlook
Today we will probably see either a bounce higher off of 1.5540, or a bearish break and a consequent move towards the minor support at 1.5485. However, the first move is likely to be reversed, so wait for a re-test before trading if a break does occur. Keep in mind that price is flat and Friday’s movement doesn’t show a lot about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for the day, contributing to the lackluster fundamental scene.
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  #129  
Old 30-12-2014, 11:35
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FOREX NEWS: US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY HOLDS CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday, after bouncing higher off of 1.2165 support, the pair headed higher and touched short term resistance but price remained confined inside the horizontal channel for the entire day.


Technical Outlook
Under normal market conditions we would expect a move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2220 resistance and 1.2165 support but given the fact that volume is low and price action irregular, we consider that any breakouts will turn out to be false. In other words, after a move outside the channel, price is likely to return inside it, but keep in mind that technical analysis is less efficient during this period.

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event of the day is the release of the American Consumer Confidence survey scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The expected figure is 94.6, an increase from last month’s 88.7 and usually such a climb would strengthen the US Dollar because increased consumer confidence often means that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD
The Pound came close to 1.5590 resistance yesterday before starting to drop. Currently the pair is trading below 1.5540 and the bears have won the short term battle.


Technical Outlook
Although price moved below the short term support at 1.5540, we might easily see a return above it, or at least a re-test if price is indeed headed south. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, the first support is located at 1.5485 but keep an eye out for any oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index as this could generate a move higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer dynamic resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no important economic or financial indicators released by the United Kingdom, so price action will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Consumer Confidence survey.
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  #130  
Old 31-12-2014, 15:53
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING SLOWS DOWN FOR NEW YEAR’S EVE



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was rather slow, a fact determined by the approaching of the New Year’s Eve and by US consumer confidence data which posted a reading close to analysts’ expectations.


Technical Outlook
Today is the last day of the year and trading will be heavily influenced by this fact. We expect sudden drops and surges in volatility, with potentially sharp whipsaws on the back of low volume. The levels to watch are 1.2220 as resistance and 1.2125 as potential support. Price behavior around the current level of 1.2165 will most likely determine the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook
German Banks will be closed today, celebrating the New Year’s Eve and the US Dollar will be somewhat affected by the release of the Unemployment Claims scheduled at 1.30 pm GMT and expected to rise to 287K from the previous 280K. A higher value is detrimental for the US Dollar under normal conditions.


GBP/USD
Yesterday’s price action was mainly controlled by the bulls and the pair managed to climb back above 1.5540. Overall it was a normal trading session, without major developments.


Technical Outlook
Price is trading above 1.5540 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the short term bias is bullish. However, we believe that an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index will probably generate another bearish move, with 1.5540 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
The British fundamental scene lacks major releases and we expect irregular price movement, mostly due to the New Year’s Eve.

We hope your year was profitable and we look forward to trading together during 2015. Have a Happy New Year!
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  #131  
Old 01-01-2015, 05:48
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FOREX NEWS: HAPPY NEW YEAR!



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the fundamental scene was rather calm and the US Unemployment Claims release didn’t generate a lot of volatility. For almost the entire day price remained in a tight range, with a bearish bias.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.2125 was breached yesterday and it looks like the pair is headed for 1.2040 if the bears can maintain their control. Today the market is closed, celebrating the first day of the New Year and price movement will be suspended.

Fundamental Outlook
Most banks around the world are closed today and no economic indicators will be released.


GBP/USD
The pair tested 1.5590 resistance yesterday but the break couldn’t be sustained and the bears quickly brought price below the mentioned level.


Technical Outlook
For the time being the pair shows rejection around 1.5590 but today no movement will be seen as the world celebrates the New Year. Once the market re-opens, we expect further downside advances.

Fundamental Outlook
As mentioned before, banks will be closed and no financial or economic indicators will be released today. Happy New Year!
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  #132  
Old 02-01-2015, 10:39
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING RESUMES. LOW VOLUME IS STILL PRESENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the market was closed as the world celebrated the first day of the New Year so price didn’t show any movement. Today the market resumes normal movement but low volume is likely to still be present.


Technical Outlook
The pair is trading below 1.2125 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but the relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold condition. This makes us believe that today we will see bullish movement but keep in mind that volume is still not back to normal so we might see irregular price action.

Fundamental Outlook
At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released, with an expected value of 57.6, a small decrease from the previous 58.7. An even smaller value would probably weaken the US Dollar but the market might overlook this release considering it’s the first trading day of the New Year.


GBP/USD
No movement was seen yesterday and price remained confined between 1.5590 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook
If price will have trouble breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we will probably see a move above the resistance at 1.5590 but a break of the mentioned EMA will most likely take the pair below 1.5540 support. Our bias is neutral and we consider that an extreme condition of the Relative Strength Index (above 70 or below 30) will generate a reversal move.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom will release the Manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast is 53.7, a small increase from last month’s 53.5 and higher values are usually beneficial for the Pound as this indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers and acts as a leading signal of economic health.
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  #133  
Old 05-01-2015, 12:13
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FOREX NEWS: OVEREXTENDED PRICES CALL FOR A BULLISH PULLBACK



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the US Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers on speculation that the Fed might raise interest rates during the first part of 2015. The entire day was controlled by the bears and the pair moved below support.


Technical Outlook
Although price action is bearish and 1.2040 support was broken, we expect the pair to move on a bullish path today. This is based on the fact that the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for a long period and price is overextended to the south. However, keep in mind that we are in a strong downtrend and the pair is under pressure, so it is likely to see further advances south after a bullish pullback.

Fundamental Outlook
At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released and expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. The indicator shows the change in the price of goods and services and acts as the main gauge of inflation; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the currency.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened tremendously Friday as the British economy is showing signs of slowing down and the United States move closer to a potential interest rate hike.


Technical Outlook
The huge drop seen Friday is likely to generate a pullback to the upside. The extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index adds to this prediction but the strength of the bears is undeniable so we expect price to continue to move south after this retracement is complete. Potential resistance is located at 1.5420 while support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator gauges optimism among purchasing managers form the construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher numbers than the anticipated 59.2 will most likely strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.
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  #134  
Old 06-01-2015, 12:29
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET REMAINS OVERSOLD. RETRACEMENTS STILL EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex News: The market opened with a big gap and the Euro took a big hit yesterday as concern about a potential Greek separation from the European Union escalated. Speculation about ECB purchasing bonds on a large scale added to the bearish momentum.


Technical Outlook
The sudden drop seen at market open yesterday was stopped by the support at 1.1875. We expect this level to be tested again today but bullish retracements are still a distinct possibility so we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. On a four hour chart both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11,6,6) are moving upwards, coming from oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is released today at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected change to 58.2 from the previous 59.3. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing industry and tries to gauge their optimism regarding business and economic conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and that’s why numbers that exceed expectations are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The pair had a huge drop which took price below 1.5260 support; the weekly gap was closed by a quick bullish move but then price dropped again on the back of a worse than expected value of the British Construction PMI.


Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is struggling to move out of oversold territory but the Pound is weakening. If price doesn’t move above 1.5260 soon, we expect further downside movement but otherwise, the first target is represented by 1.5320 short term resistance. This level and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably create a confluence zone which will be hard to break if price touches it.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is announced; the forecast is 58.9, a small increase from last month’s 58.6. The indicator tries to measure optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.
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  #135  
Old 06-01-2015, 16:26
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USDCAD has been down due to recent pullbacks and there are no chances of it getting more higher, it might continue to roll back.
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  #136  
Old 07-01-2015, 12:05
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FOREX NEWS: US EMPLOYMENT DATA AND FOMC MEETING MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move south after a small retracement higher. Overall price action was controlled by the bears but immediate support couldn’t be broken.


Technical Outlook
Price came in close vicinity of 1.1875 support and showed rejection at this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic reached oversold territory and these facts make us believe that a move higher is in order. The first barrier is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this resistance can be broken, the next target is 1.2040. The pair is still in a downtrend so moves south cannot be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to change 0.0% while last month’s value was 0.3%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value is usually beneficial for the Euro because current inflation levels are considered too low by the ECB.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 1:15 pm GMT and shows the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. However, today’s version is released by a privately owned company, not by the US Government so the impact is usually lower. The expected number is 227K, an increase from last month’s 208K and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, offering details about the latest Fed Meeting.


GBP/USD
Resistance couldn’t be broken yesterday and the pair dropped on the back of Pound weakness generated by a worse than anticipated value of the Services PMI.


Technical Outlook
The bulls failed to take price above 1.5260 resistance and the rest of the day belonged to the bears. Price action created minor support around 1.5165 and a break of this level would probably take the pair into the next support, located at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index moving upwards, coming from below 30 and this favors bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.
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  #137  
Old 08-01-2015, 15:21
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FOREX NEWS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED AS THE DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN



EUR/USD
Forex News; Yesterday we’ve seen that European inflation is still dropping and as a result the downtrend extended further. The US employment report posted better than anticipated numbers and this added to the bears’ strength.


Technical Outlook
The FOMC Meeting Minutes created mixed reaction as the Fed mentioned that a rate hike is unlikely before April but overall price action was bearish for most of the day, moving below 1.1875. If a bullish retracement will occur, the mentioned level will probably turn into resistance and the chances of further bearish movement will be increased near this level. Immediate support sits at 1.1800.

Fundamental Outlook
European Retail Sales are released today at 10:00 am GMT with an expected change of 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Sales made at a retail level are crucial for an economy because consumer spending represents an important part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers will generate some Euro strength.


GBP/USD
The pair broke the important support at 1.5100 and continued to move lower for most of the day. The US Dollar had mixed behavior at the time of the Meeting Minutes release.


Technical Outlook
After moving below 1.5100, the pair retraced to test the recently broken level. Now price action around this potential resistance will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will open the door for further downside action, while a move above it will probably take the pair into the immediate resistance created by the hourly 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The next psychological and technical support sits at 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 12:00 pm GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.50% so, unless a huge surprise happens, the event will not create a lot of volatility.
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  #138  
Old 10-01-2015, 02:18
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. NON FARM PAYROLLS – ENDING THE WEEK WITH STRONG MOVEMENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the bears remained in control of the pair but some upside pressure was seen at the time of the European Retail Sales release which posted better than expected numbers.


Technical Outlook
Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic remain in the lower part of their respective windows, near oversold levels but the pair continues to slide lower. The minor support at 1.1800 was broken yesterday and now it is being tested from below; if price returns above it, the first resistance is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that today the technical side will be secondary to the fundamental one.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Non Farm Employment report which is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and it’s considered the most important jobs related data. If more jobs are created, the economy is thriving and consumer spending will probably increase in the near future so better numbers than the expected 241K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and the announcement didn’t create a lot of volatility. The pair made another push for 1.5000 support but failed to touch it.


Technical Outlook
The picture remains bearish, with the first resistance located at 1.5100 and support at 1.5000. Yesterday’s price action created minor support at 1.5035 and this will be the first target if 1.5100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average cannot be broken. The day’s price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day’s headline but apart from that an important role will be played by the release of the British Manufacturing Production scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from the previous -0.7%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Pound and would take the pair higher.
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  #139  
Old 12-01-2015, 11:30
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: A QUIET FUNDAMENTAL SCENE INFLUENCES PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Non Farm Payrolls posted a better than expected number but still lower than last’s month value, a fact which created mixed movement Friday at the time of the release.


Technical Outlook
The first reaction to the US jobs report was a drop which was soon reversed and the pair started to move upwards. The immediate target is represented by 1.1875; this could be a place where the bears will take back control of the pair, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will be coming out of overbought territory. To the downside, the first potential support is located at 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic releases, a fact which makes us believe that we will see slow, ranging movement.


GBP/USD
Overall Friday was a bullish day, with irregular movement present at the time of the American Non Farm Employment Change report. The pair remained above 1.5100 for the entire day.


Technical Outlook
Price moved above horizontal resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, completing a much needed bullish retracement. A downtrend is still in place and this increases the chances of bearish movement with the first target being located at 1.5100, followed by 1.5035. To the upside, the first resistance sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule economic releases today, so price action will be driven by the technical aspect but we don’t expect any substantial developments.
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  #140  
Old 13-01-2015, 12:18
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF THE BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX



EUR/USD
Forex News: The fundamental scene was calm yesterday as no major news came out and price had mixed behavior, reversing a drop which occurred early in the day.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, without clear direction although the bears made an attempt to retake control. From a short term perspective the picture is mixed and the bias neutral, with the first levels of importance being 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1750 as support. The Stochastic entered oversold territory but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t confirm it so we will not allocate a lot of importance to this bullish signal.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is a lackluster fundamental day, but a noteworthy event is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the number of jobs openings, excluding the farming industry but this is a lagging indicator because it is released about 40 days after the month for which it is calculated has ended. Nonetheless, better numbers than today’s expected 4.91M can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
Trading was mixed yesterday as the Pound weakened during the first part of the day but most of the losses were erased in the second part, after a bounce at 1.5100 support.


Technical Outlook
Short term price action created minor resistance at 1.5190 and we expect another encounter with this level considering the fact that yesterday the pair bounced immediately after a bounce at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is moving close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control doesn’t belong to either side but a clear downtrend is in place and a touch of 1.5190 might generate bearish action.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.7% while the previous was 1.0% and such a drop will most likely trigger Pound weakness.
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  #141  
Old 14-01-2015, 12:05
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES TO INFLUENCE THE GREENBACK AS SUPPORT STILL HOLDS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair continued its descent yesterday on the back of a weaker Euro and short term support was touched again. Concern that the ECB will add more stimulus contributed to the pair’s bearish movement.


Technical Outlook
Price bounced higher as soon as 1.1750 support was touched, showing that bears are having difficulties breaking this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are close to their respective oversold levels and are starting to move up; this, coupled with the bullish bounce seen at 1.1750 increases the chance of a move north which could find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Retail Sales are the day’s main event and is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 0.2% from the previous 0.7%, a fact which would be detrimental or the US Dollar because a major part of overall economic activity is represented by sales made at a retail level. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator which is released at the same time but excludes automobiles from calculation.


GBP/USD
The pair had another day characterized by a sharp reversal yesterday as we saw price drop about 100 pips and then climb the same distance. British inflation dropped more than expected and this was the main reason for the initial move south.


Technical Outlook
After failing to break 1.5190 resistance, price dropped below 1.5100 but the break soon proved to be false and a bullish bounce took price back up, close to 1.5190. This is a sign that price action is ruled by indecision and the next direction is not clear until a breakout occurs. Even this break of support or resistance happens today, a safer entry would be after a successful retest of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today before the Treasury Select Committee; the topic is the Financial Stability Report and the testimony could bring some irregular and possibly strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled time is 2:15 pm GMT.
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  #142  
Old 15-01-2015, 13:30
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM RESISTANCE THREATENED. BOUNCE OR BREAK?



EUR/USD
Forex News: The U.S. Dollar took a hit yesterday as the American Retail Sales posted a much worse than expected change of -0.9%, indicating an economic slowdown. The bulls took control of the pair after a failed attempt to break 1.1750 support.


Technical Outlook
The downtrend remains intact as long as 1.1875 is resistance but it looks like the bullish pullback might continue until the mentioned level is touched. The failed break of 1.1750 shows that the downtrend was overextended and needed a “breather” in the form of a retracement higher. If the bulls cannot maintain price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average we will most likely see another attempt to break 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Producer Price Index is released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.3% while last month’s value was -0.2%. Higher numbers are usually beneficial for the greenback because the PPI has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be paid by the consumer eventually).

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering information about the state of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. Higher values than the expected 20.3 are considered bullish for the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 4:15 pm GMT, Bundesbank President Weidmann will deliver a speech in Berlin and this could be a volatility trigger if the he will talk about the Euro crisis.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well and as a result the pair moved above resistance. Mark Carney’s testimony was almost unnoticed by market participants.


Technical Outlook
After several attempts, the pair finally broke 1.5190 resistance and continued upwards until 1.5260 was touched. Today we expect a break of either one of the mentioned levels but notice that once 1.5260 was touched, price immediately bounced lower, a fact which shows that the bears still have a lot of underlying power and that we might see a move below 1.5190.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so price action will be influenced by the U.S. events and by technical factors.
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  #143  
Old 16-01-2015, 14:17
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FOREX NEWS: SWISS NATIONAL BANK’S SHOCKING DECISION, LIKELY TO INFLUENCE PRICE ACTION FURTHER



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision yesterday to remove the cap which kept the EUR/CHF pair at a 1.20 rate. The effect on CHF pairs was tremendous, each moving several thousand pips but the Euro was affected as well and the EUR/USD pair dropped for more than 200 pips when the news came out.


Technical Outlook
The drop took the pair to a low of 1.1569 before the entire distance was traveled back up where the move originated. At the moment price is trading close to 1.1640 support. The environment is choppy and the market is dangerous but if the bears can maintain price below 1.1640, the next destination is the low we mentioned earlier. Further downside movement is possible as the effects of SNB’s decision will most likely be seen today as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. There’s no change expected from the previous -0.3% but higher values are considered beneficial for the US Dollar under normal circumstances. The last important event of the week is the release of the US Consumer Sentiment survey scheduled at 2:55 pm GMT. A small increase to 94.2 from the previous 93.6 is expected, a fact which would strengthen the greenback because consumer sentiment is correlated with consumer spending which is an important part of the economy.


GBP/USD
The SNB decision didn’t affect the GBP/USD as much but some impact was seen and the pair briefly dropped below support before heading higher, into resistance.


Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.5260 was touched again yesterday but the pair didn’t break it and instead it headed lower. Now price is moving below 1.5190 and might be headed towards 1.5100 considering that resistance held and that a downtrend is still in place. The bias remains bearish as long as price remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major data releases scheduled for the day ahead so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side, unless surprises occur.
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  #144  
Old 20-01-2015, 07:13
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, RESISTANCE THREATENED



EUR/USD
Forex News: Price action was pretty slow yesterday, with a bullish bias for most of the day. However, resistance couldn’t be broken and no major economic or financial indicators were released.



Technical Outlook
Overall the picture remains bearish and we expect further moves down once the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought. The resistance at 1.1640 is the first place where trend resumption can occur but a bullish break followed by a successful re-test of this level would invalidate this scenario and would make 1.1750 the first target. To the downside, 1.1460 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey will be today’s biggest release. It is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to change to 40.1 from the previous 34.9. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors and tries to gauge their optimism regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the single currency.


GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar traded in a tight range for the most part of yesterday’s session and neither support nor resistance was threatened. Price remained close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues about future direction and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index which is hovering in the middle of the 30-70 range. The next short term direction will be probably determined by the break of either 1.5190 resistance or 1.5100 support; a conservative entry would be after a re-test and a bounce off of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic data releases today, thus price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.
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  #145  
Old 22-01-2015, 07:43
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE ECB MEETING AS QE SPECULATION COMES TO AN END



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a wild day yesterday, with a lot of mixed movement generated by the fact that ECB officials said the proposed amount to be used in the quantitative easing program is 50 billion Euros/month. The actual figure will be announced today.


Technical Outlook
The volatility created by the ECB news took the pair to a high of 1.1680 before dropping below 1.1640 resistance which apparently is still holding although it was briefly breached. Today we expect choppy price action, without clear direction until the ECB announces the official figure for the quantitative easing program. The technical aspect of trading will be overshadowed by this event and caution is recommended throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the ECB meeting during which the value of the QE will be announced. The interest rate decision is made public at 12:45 pm GMT (no change expected) and a Press Conference will be held at 1:30 pm GMT. The market can have a mixed reaction to the figure that will be announced and extreme caution is needed if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
The members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a surprising change of stance as all 9 of them now believe that a rate change is not needed. Previously, 2 members voted for a rate increase, while 7 voted to keep the rate unchanged.


Technical Outlook
The initial market reaction when the vote breakdown was released triggered a sharp drop which found support at 1.5100. The pair moved briefly below the mentioned level but the bears couldn’t break it decisively and price started to range in close vicinity of this support. Now the pair shows signs of indecision and we expect this to remain unchanged until the ECB decision comes out; although it doesn’t affect the GBP/USD pair directly, the event is eagerly anticipated by market participants so it is likely to have an impact on other pairs as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a slow day ahead in terms of economic releases and we expect a volatile day, generated by the events mentioned earlier.
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  #146  
Old 22-01-2015, 13:03
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE ECB MEETING AS QE SPECULATION COMES TO AN END



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a wild day yesterday, with a lot of mixed movement generated by the fact that ECB officials said the proposed amount to be used in the quantitative easing program is 50 billion Euros/month. The actual figure will be announced today.


Technical Outlook
The volatility created by the ECB news took the pair to a high of 1.1680 before dropping below 1.1640 resistance which apparently is still holding although it was briefly breached. Today we expect choppy price action, without clear direction until the ECB announces the official figure for the quantitative easing program. The technical aspect of trading will be overshadowed by this event and caution is recommended throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the ECB meeting during which the value of the QE will be announced. The interest rate decision is made public at 12:45 pm GMT (no change expected) and a Press Conference will be held at 1:30 pm GMT. The market can have a mixed reaction to the figure that will be announced and extreme caution is needed if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
The members of the Monetary Policy Committee had a surprising change of stance as all 9 of them now believe that a rate change is not needed. Previously, 2 members voted for a rate increase, while 7 voted to keep the rate unchanged.


Technical Outlook
The initial market reaction when the vote breakdown was released triggered a sharp drop which found support at 1.5100. The pair moved briefly below the mentioned level but the bears couldn’t break it decisively and price started to range in close vicinity of this support. Now the pair shows signs of indecision and we expect this to remain unchanged until the ECB decision comes out; although it doesn’t affect the GBP/USD pair directly, the event is eagerly anticipated by market participants so it is likely to have an impact on other pairs as well.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a slow day ahead in terms of economic releases and we expect a volatile day, generated by the events mentioned earlier.
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  #147  
Old 23-01-2015, 12:42
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT SHATTERED AS THE ECB REVEALS QE VALUE



EUR/USD
Forex News: The ECB announced that combined asset purchases will total a 60 billion EUR/month until at least September 2016. The event created mixed market reaction at first but soon after the pair started to drop and support was tested.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.1460 was breached during yesterday’s drop and Euro weakness will probably generate further downside movement after a re-test of the mentioned level. The Relative Strength Index moved below 30, indicating that a retracement is due; however, an oversold condition of the RSI doesn’t mean that price will retrace with certainty. For now the picture remains bearish and the pair seems headed towards new lows.

Fundamental Outlook
The French Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:00 am GMT, followed half an hour later by the German indicator with the same name. French PMI is expected to show a value of 48.1, while the forecast for the German indicator is 51.8; these indicators are gauges of economic health, focused on the Manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values could strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar had mixed movement yesterday as the effect of the ECB decision extended to this pair as well. Resistance was touched before the bears finally took control of the pair and broke support.


Technical Outlook
In the recent past the pair moved several times below 1.5100 but returned above it almost immediately so a re-test would be in order before this break can be considered a valid one. The pair’s next target is 1.5035, followed by 1.5000 and the bias is bearish but bullish moves are not out of the question, depending on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Retail Sales are released at 9:30 am GMT and are expected to change -0.6% while last month’s value was 1.6%. Such a drop would suggest that the economy is starting to slow down and the Pound will be negatively affected.
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  #148  
Old 26-01-2015, 12:00
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: NEW DOWNSIDE TARGETS AS THE DOWNTREND IS IN FULL SWING



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the pair continued to drop sharply as the effect of the ECB stimulus decision remained in full swing. New multi year lows were reached and the bears made significant advances.


Technical Outlook
Price action seen during the last day of the week created minor resistance at 1.1290; the new low at 1.1114 will most likely act as minor support. The bias is bearish without a doubt and we expect another encounter with 1.1114 but this doesn’t exclude another test of minor resistance, considering the fact that the pair traveled down more than 500 pips in just two days and the move might need a stronger bullish pullback.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about current economic conditions in Germany as well as a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 106.7 and higher numbers can strengthen the Euro, driving the pair higher.


GBP/USD
The Pound posted losses against the US Dollar during the first part of Friday but these were erased later in the day. However, the pair couldn’t return above resistance and bounced lower again.


Technical Outlook
The bounce at 1.5035 resistance shows that further downside movement can be expected and that we will probably see another encounter with Friday’s low located at 1.4950. A strong move above 1.5035 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would suggest that the downtrend is weakened and might push price into the resistance located at 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will reveal the number of new mortgages approved for house purchases. A higher figure suggests increased activity in the house market sector and can have a positive impact on the Pound. The event is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 36.6K.
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  #149  
Old 27-01-2015, 13:38
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND BRITISH GDP TO DECIDE THE DAY’S BIAS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a figure that met analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed by market participants. Most of yesterday was controlled by the bulls as price retraced higher.


Technical Outlook
The pair bounced at support and continued upwards until short term resistance at 1.1290 was touched. The bias remains negative overall as a clear downtrend is still in place. The level at 1.1290, together with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone which will be tough to break to the upside so this can be a good place where downside movement can resume. The overbought condition of the Stochastic also increases the chances of bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
The U.S. Durable Gods Orders come out at 1:30 pm GMT, with an expected change of 0.6%, while last month this indicator posted a value of -0.9%. Values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The second important event of the day is the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding current and future economic situation and usually acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The expected figure is 95.7, an increase from last month’s 92.6.


GBP/USD
The Pound gained against the greenback yesterday as a Bank of England official said that an interest rate hike might come sooner than investors anticipate.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved above 1.5035 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, making the short term bias bullish. The resistance at 1.5100 is the next place where sellers might step in and drive price lower and if this level coincides with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, the chances of bearish movement will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The release of the BBA Mortgage Approvals was rescheduled for today at 9:30 am GMT (initially scheduled yesterday at the same time). The expected figure is 36.6K and numbers above that could add more steam to the Pound. However, the event might be overshadowed by the release of the Prelim Gross Domestic Product scheduled at the same time and expected to show a value of 0.6% compared with last month’s 0.7%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance, lower numbers can weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower.
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  #150  
Old 28-01-2015, 14:47
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR WEAKENED AHEAD OF THE FED MEETINGS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday as the US Dollar weakened partially due to the worse than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders. Minor resistance was broken, making the short term bias bullish.


Technical Outlook
After moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and re-testing it from above, price headed towards 1.1460 resistance . If this level will be reached, we expect some bearish price action to take place, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will show overbought conditions. If a bounce occurs, the 50 period EMA will offer support and a break of this line would bring price back into 1.1290.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the U.S. Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Rate Statement that accompanies it. The scheduled time is 7:00 pm GMT and although the rate is not expected to change (<0.25%), strong volatility will most likely be present, depending on the contents of the Statement, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD
The Pound registered another strong bullish day against the greenback, although the British GDP somewhat disappointed. Resistance was broken after a brief bounce and the bulls dominate short term price action.


Technical Outlook
Price broke 1.5100 decisively and moved above 1.5200 resistance but for the time being the level cannot be considered broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached overbought territory and this makes us believe that the break of resistance experienced yesterday will not generate additional bullish movement or at least not before a move down occurs, which will clear the mentioned overbought condition. Support will be provided by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and by the bullish trend line seen on the picture.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today so we expect price action to be driven by the US events mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.
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  #151  
Old 29-01-2015, 14:56
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT, TECHNICAL SIDE SECONDARY



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a slow day ahead of the FOMC Statement release and surprisingly, price action remained that way once the document came out. Volatility was just briefly present as the Fed kept the rate unchanged and announced they will use patience before modifying it.


Technical Outlook
Price moved sideways for the most part of yesterday and neither support nor resistance was broken, but the pair is still in a downtrend so we favor bearish movement today. The first barrier is located at 1.1290 but if this support will hold, we anticipate a move into 1.1460 resistance. A lot will depend on the German inflation indicator released today and we consider this will decide price direction for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook
Germany’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 1:00 pm GMT and expected decrease -0.8% while last month’s value was 0.0%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and such a drop would weaken the Euro since Germany’s economy is of crucial importance for the entire Euro Zone and the ECB is struggling to bring inflation levels higher.


GBP/USD
Price traveled once again above 1.5200 but failed to move away before the Fed event. Once the Statement was released not much has happened and resistance couldn’t be broken.


Technical Outlook
The failed attempt to break 1.5200 resistance makes us believe that moves lower will follow. If this is true, the first support will be offered by the bullish trend line combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index is moving downwards and this increases the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic or financial releases and price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.
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  #152  
Old 30-01-2015, 15:27
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GDP COULD BRING THE SELLERS IN CONTROL ONCE AGAIN



EUR/USD
Forex News: Although German inflation figures disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.0%, the Euro climbed during the first part of the day but overall we had a slow trading session, with some bearish movement in the second part.


Technical Outlook
We continue to favor the short side and we anticipate a break of 1.1290 to the downside. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart are starting to curve downwards, agreeing with our bias. The next important support is located around 1.1114, but this price is not likely to be reached today unless surprising developments occur.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced at 10:00 am GMT; the forecast is a change of -0.5% while the previous was -0.2% and such a drop would further weaken the Euro. The U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, will be announced at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 3.0% and any value above this will be beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened substantially against the US Dollar yesterday and the bears managed to break the uptrend line and to pierce 1.5035 support.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5035 was pierced but is not clearly broken and the Relative Strength Index is oversold. These two facts make us believe that price will pull back higher before breaking support decisively. If support is broken while the Relative Strength index is oversold, price will probably return to re-test the level from below, a fact which may clear the oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook
The Net Lending to Individuals is the only notable event coming out of the United Kingdom today. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected value is 3.2B; higher figures suggest that people feel comfortable spending money and this indicates that consumer spending will probably increase in the near future. All this would have a positive effect on the Pound and would take the pair higher but the event usually produces just medium impact.
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  #153  
Old 02-02-2015, 11:02
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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF BRITISH AND AMERICAN MANUFACTURING DATA



EUR/USD
Forex News : European inflation data that came out Friday was worse than expected but the American Gross Domestic Product also disappointed and this contributed to the day’s slow movement.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.1290 was pierced but we cannot consider it broken until a re-test from below occurs. The Relative Strength Index is moving in the middle of the range, without clear direction but the Stochastic is crossing upwards, coming out of oversold area and this suggests that we might see bullish price action; however, a clear break of 1.1290 would put the sellers back in control.

Fundamental Outlook
The Spanish Unemployment numbers come out at 8:00 am GMT, with an expected change of -32.4K compared with last month’s -64.4K. Lower numbers show that less people are unemployed and this is usually beneficial for the Euro.

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about current and future economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. Higher values than the anticipated 54.9 are usually beneficial for the US Dollar and take the pair lower.


GBP/USD
Trading was mixed Friday for the Pound-Dollar pair and we saw a quick reversal after what appeared to be a good break of short term support.


Technical Outlook
Price is still confined between 1.5100 resistance and 1.5035 support and action is likely to be unclear until either one of these levels is broken. The break will have increased chances to generate additional movement in that direction if it is followed by a re-test and a bounce. However, the direction will be mainly influenced by the economic indicators released today.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT with an expected value of 52.9. Manufacturing is an important part of the British economy and usually higher values strengthen the Pound.
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  #154  
Old 03-02-2015, 11:39
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FOREX NEWS: PRICE CONFINED IN TIGHT RANGES. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex News: American Manufacturing data disappointed yesterday and the US Dollar lost its appeal. The pair climbed but price action was choppy for most of the day. The release of the Spanish Unemployment numbers was rescheduled for today.


Technical Outlook
The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is confined in a very tight range, being caped to the downside by 1.1290 support and by 1.1365 to the upside. Lately 1.1365 acts as short term resistance and we anticipate a bounce lower, with the first target being 1.1290. However, price is just moving sideways and this kind of movement doesn’t offer enough hints about immediate direction. Since the main downtrend is intact, we have a bearish bias.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:00 am GMT the Spanish Unemployment numbers are released and expected to show a change of 83.4K compared with last month’s -64.4. Initially the release was scheduled for yesterday and the forecast value was also a lot different. This might not affect the indicator’s impact but use caution nonetheless.


GBP/USD
The pair showed some sharp reversals yesterday, especially on the lower time frames. British Manufacturing data came out close to analysts’ expectations and this added to the choppy movement.


Technical Outlook
Price came very close to 1.5100 resistance before reversing and moving below 1.5035 support. Although this support is not decisively broken, the short term bias is bearish because the pair bounced at resistance and is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price doesn’t move above 1.5035, the first target is represented by 1.4950.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction PMI is released at 9:30 am GMT; the anticipated value is 56.9 (57.6 previous) and higher numbers will probably strengthen the Pound as this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.
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  #155  
Old 04-02-2015, 12:08
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FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK’S FIRST U.S. JOBS-RELATED DATA DECIDES SHORT TERM BIAS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and continued to rally without any particular fundamental reason. Spanish Unemployment claims came out better than expected but the event didn’t play a major role in yesterday’s price action.


Technical Outlook
The recent rally broke 1.1365 short term resistance and took price in close vicinity of 1.1460, shifting momentum towards the bulls. However, the move is not backed by strong fundamentals and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic have reached overbought territory. These things make us believe that the recent bullish move will not extend much further. A clear break of 1.1460 followed by a successful re-test could mean that price is set for new advances north.

Fundamental Outlook
At 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc., a privately owned company will release their version of the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and often offers hints about the Government data which will be released two days later. The impact can be quite strong, especially if the numbers differ from analysts’ expectations. Higher values than the anticipated 224K usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar weakened against the British Pound as well and the pair moved comfortably above 1.5100 resistance. The British Construction PMI showed a higher number but the release was not the cause of the rally.


Technical Outlook
Recent price action created short term support around 1.4990. We consider 1.4990 support because as we saw yesterday the pair rallied strongly after bouncing off of this level. Now that 1.5100 was broken, the bulls are likely to take price into 1.5200 resistance but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on an hourly chart and this might hinder future advances to the north. A touch of 1.5100 from above is very probable.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the anticipated 56.6 can strengthen the Pound but the indicator is not known to be a strong market mover and the U.S. jobs data will probably have a stronger impact.
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  #156  
Old 05-02-2015, 15:06
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: BUYERS’ GAINS IN PERIL UNLESS RESISTANCE GIVES WAY SOON



EUR/USD
Forex News: After moving above resistance yesterday, the pair took a dip on the back of a stronger US Dollar. The ADP Non Farm Employment numbers showed that fewer jobs were created than analysts’ expected but the effect wasn’t substantial.


Technical Outlook
The fact that price moved back below 1.1460 shows that the bulls are not yet ready to reverse the main downtrend. If the pair can move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we anticipate a descent into the support located at 1.1365. To the upside, 1.1460 still remains resistance and the chances of a break will increase if price will bounce at the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s most important U.S. indicator is the Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. A number below zero means that imports exceed exports and a lower than anticipated number is usually detrimental for the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is -38.0B and the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT.


GBP/USD
British Services PMI came out with a better than expected value, a fact which helped the Pound and took the pair above 1.5200 resistance.


Technical Outlook
Although yesterday price action was bullish, rejection was seen in the second part of the day. The Relative Strength Index is still trading close to its 70 level, indicating an overbought condition which will increase the chances of a move below 1.5200. Immediate resistance is located at 1.5260 but the current move up seems exhausted and a break is less likely to occur.

Fundamental Outlook
Price direction will be affected today by the Bank of England decision regarding the interest rate. A change is not expected from the current 0.50% but often just speculation and rumors about a rate change can trigger strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled release time is 12:00 pm GMT.
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  #157  
Old 06-02-2015, 12:54
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FOREX NEWS: US NON FARM PAYROLLS STEAL THE HEADLINES AGAIN



EUR/USD
Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the sellers who managed to take price below 1.1365. Later in the day a disappointing value of the U.S. Trade Balance weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to climb.


Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.1460 managed to stop yesterday’s rally and this might suggest that price is about to turn to the downside. However, all moves are quickly reversed lately and the picture is unclear; we slightly favor bearish moves but we acknowledge the fact that today’s price direction will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls. The levels to watch are 1.1460 as resistance and 1.1290 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the release of the US Non Farm Employment Change scheduled at 1:30pm GMT. The indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and is widely considered the most important employment related data for the United States. Levels of employment and consumer spending are closely tied together because people with jobs spend more than unemployed ones, so a higher than anticipated number for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback. The forecast is 236K while the previous value was 252K.


GBP/USD
As anticipated the Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and the event didn’t have a strong impact but US Dollar weakness generated a break of resistance, putting the bulls in short term control.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s rally paused at 1.5315, turning this level into minor resistance. The gap seen a few weeks back happened around this level as well and this adds to the possibility of it becoming resistance, but its strength is not yet tested. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought, increasing the chances of bearish moves but price direction today will be directly correlated with the US employment data. If 1.5315 is broken, the next resistance is located at 1.5540; first potential support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook
Since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule high impact data releases, the day’s market mover will be the US Non Farm Payrolls.
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  #158  
Old 09-02-2015, 11:38
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FOREX NEWS: G20 MEETINGS BRING TOGETHER THE WORLD’S KEY PEOPLE. CURRENCIES REACT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday all eyes were focused on the U.S. employment numbers. The NFP release showed that more jobs were created than analysts expected and this strengthened the US Dollar, taking the pair close to support.


Technical Outlook
The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the long term trend is down so today we expect further movement south. First minor support is located at 1.1300 but both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on an hourly chart so we anticipate small moves to the upside before support can be broken decisively. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first form of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 (Group of 20) Meetings take place today, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. The meetings are closed to the press but an official statement will be released at the end of the event. Sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and this can generate volatility on the currency market.


GBP/USD
The better than expected figure for the US Non Farm Payrolls and the US Dollar strength generated took the pair lower Friday, after an initial move above minor resistance.


Technical Outlook
Positive U.S. data combined with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index triggered a move below 1.5260. Lately the bulls have made good advances but the overall trend is bearish so today we might see price move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Our bias is slightly bearish, but we anticipate a climb before price can move south.

Fundamental Outlook
The G20 meetings will be the day’s main event as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic or financial indicator.
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  #159  
Old 10-02-2015, 12:34
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: BRITISH MANUFACTURING DATA AND ESTIMATED GDP DECIDE POUND DIRECTION



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a pretty calm trading session yesterday, with price oscillating between support and resistance. The G20 meetings did not generate substantial moves.


Technical Outlook
Price action was confined between 1.1270 support and 1.1360 resistance and it seems like the pair is under bearish pressure. Today we expect a break of 1.1270 minor support and a move towards 1.1100 area. However, if price moves above 1.1360 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect the bulls to continue higher but we don’t believe 1.1500 will be threatened unless surprise developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the second day of the G20 meetings could generate sudden moves.


GBP/USD
Price action yesterday was mostly bearish and price touched both support and resistance, without managing to break either of them.


Technical Outlook
As long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our short term bias is bearish in anticipation of a break of 1.5200 support. Although we favor the short side, a break of 1.5260 would most likely take the pair into 1.5315 minor resistance. During the day watch for overbought/oversold conditions of the RSI as the pair is not in a strong trend and this increases the chances of reversals after an extreme reading (above 70/below 30).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total output generated by the manufacturing sector and values above the forecast 0.3% usually strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR GDP Estimate comes out. The previous value was 0.6% and numbers above it are normally beneficial for the Pound because this estimate is usually very accurate.
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  #160  
Old 11-02-2015, 15:18
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FOREX NEWS: GEOPOLITICAL TURMOIL AS KEY PERSONALITIES ARE MEETING TO DISCUSS GREECE AND UKRAINE CRISES



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had another slow day and remained confined between support and resistance after another failed attempt to break out. No major indicators were released and this contributed to the choppy price action.


Technical Outlook
A breakout is highly probable today but the direction is hard to predict considering this week’s slow movement. The levels to watch are 1.1270 as support and 1.1360 as resistance; if these are broken the pair will travel towards 1.1500 or 1.1100, depending on the initial breakout direction. Geopolitical factors will play a crucial role and the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine will meet today in an attempt to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict. The outcome of the negotiations can have major implications on the currency market thus caution is highly recommended. The ECOFIN Meetings also take place today and the highlight will be the negotiation for the Greek debt issue. So far a conclusion hasn’t been reached and a new deal for Greece hasn’t been struck but if today we see some new developments, the Euro is likely to react swiftly.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a slow day as well and is now struggling to break resistance after a bounce at support. The GDP estimate was released 25 minutes earlier than initially scheduled but the event didn’t create a lot of movement and the same goes for manufacturing data.


Technical Outlook
Price bounced twice at 1.5200 support and is now sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on both an hourly and a four-hour chart. This puts short term bias in favor of the bulls but 1.5260 resistance is still not broken so we might very well see a rebound lower. A breakout is highly probable, with the first bullish target located at 1.5315. A break of 1.5200 support will open the door for 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECOFIN Meetings will be the day’s highlight but the United Kingdom didn’t schedule other major news releases.
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