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  #1  
Old 17-06-2014, 13:11
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, POUND REACHES NEW HIGHS. ECONOMIC DATA DECIDES DIRECTION


EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair didn’t travel a substantial distance during yesterday’s trading session and 1.3560 resistance was re-visited. Euro Zone’s CPI came out with the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.


Technical Outlook
The pair is in a consolidation zone between1.3585 and 1.3520 and a breakout is imminent. The medium term trend is bearish so there’s a higher probability of a break of support than of resistance. If 1.3520 is broken, the next important level is located at 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 while to the upside price will encounter resistance at 1.3650 if 1.3585 will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook
An important German survey is released today at 9:00 am GMT: the ZEW Economic Sentiment. This indicator is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts who are asked to rate the current and future economic conditions. The forecast is an increase from 33.1 to 35.2, a fact which would strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%, a fact which would be detrimental for the US Dollar since the CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation.

GBP/USD
The Pound continued to climb, fueled by speculation about a potential rate hike performed by the BoE and 1.7000 was breached as a result.


Technical Outlook
Immediately after piercing the multi-year top created at 1.6996, the pair returned below it, a fact which shows that resistance is still holding and it will take more than one attempt to break it. Also, the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend towards the 70 level, coming from overbought territory, a fact which favors the bears and increases the chance of a touch of 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook
Price direction will be influenced today by the release of United Kingdom’s CPI which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation is anticipated to drop from the previous 1.8% to 1.7% and if analysts’ expectations come true or even lower numbers are posted, the Pound is likely to lose some steam. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.




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  #2  
Old 18-06-2014, 12:48
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: FOMC RELEASES A CLUSTER OF MARKET-MOVING DATA




EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair failed to break free of the current consolidation pattern which governs price action despite the fact that German ZEW posted worse than expected values and the American CPI showed an increase.


Technical Outlook
Some US Dollar strength was seen yesterday at the time of the CPI release, making the pair bounce lower off the resistance located at 1.3585. The downtrend line seen in the picture above created a confluence zone but although all the ingredients for a break of support were present, the pair had a rather slow day. We expect the latest momentum to be continued today and the pair to break 1.3520 support, but a lot depends on the US events released in the second part of the day.

Fundamental Outlook
At 6:00 pm GMT the Federal Funds Rate (not expected to change from the current <0.25%) is announced within the FOMC Statement and will be followed half an hour by a Press Conference which will contain commentary regarding the monetary policy and possibly future rate direction. The FOMC will also release at 6:00 pm GMT their Economic Projections regarding inflation and economic conditions for the next two years. This cluster of events is likely to generate a lot of strong movement and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index showed yesterday that inflation dropped more than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Pound. However, the losses incurred were almost immediately recovered, creating a major whipsaw on the lower time frames.


Technical Outlook
Although we saw yesterday some choppy price action, the resistance at 1.6996 is still holding and the Relative Strength Index is moving down, coming from overbought territory. These factors favor a move south, towards the potential support area located at 1.6920. A move above 1.7000 would invalidate the Double Top formation and would resume the uptrend, making 1.7040 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the breakdown of the MPC members’ votes regarding the latest interest rate decision. This is a good opportunity for traders to assess the stance of the BoE on the interest rate and to see if the MPC members have a difference of opinion. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by the US events mentioned above.


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  #3  
Old 19-06-2014, 13:43
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM?



EUR/USD
Forex News: The FOMC cluster of events generated huge volatility yesterday but unfortunately the price movement was almost untradeable at the time because of huge whipsaws and choppy up and down movement.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action holds absolutely no technical clues about future movement but the fact still remains that 1.3585 resistance couldn’t be broken decisively. This increases the chance of a bearish trend resumption but moves above the mentioned level will make 1.3680 the next potential target.

Fundamental Outlook
The Eurogroup Meetings start today and are attended by finance ministers of countries where Euro is the main currency; the President of the ECB will also participate and the discussions which will take place will have an impact on the Euro’s future direction. Later in the day, at 2:00 am GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the current level of business conditions. The expected figure is 14.3, a decrease from the previous 15.4 and usually lower numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The pair was also highly affected by the US events but price action was slightly more docile than EUR/USD. We had another encounter with 1.6996 and a bounce off 1.6920 in what was a hectic trading session.


Technical Outlook
We saw yesterday a clear rejection at 1.6920 which has now turned into support, a fact which makes 1.6996 the next destination for the pair. At the moment the bullish momentum is renewed by the immediate bounce at support and it seems like the Pound is headed for new highs. A break of support would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the CBI Industrial Order Expectations are announced and anticipated to rise from 0 to 3. The indicator is a survey that asks British manufacturers to rate the expected volume of orders during the next three months and usually expectations above 0 indicate optimism and strengthen the Pound.



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  #4  
Old 20-06-2014, 15:58
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: HIGH PRICES CALL FOR A BEARISH RETRACEMENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair broke resistance yesterday and almost the entire day was controlled by the bulls. The US Dollar weakened on Fed comments that interest rates will be kept at low levels for “considerable time”.


Technical Outlook
Despite the ECB’s decision to lower rates, the Euro is not weakening against the US Dollar and we are likely to see a touch of 1.3680 resistance now that 1.3585 is decisively broken. However, today we anticipate a move lower which will clear the overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. If this move occurs, 1.3585 will most likely turn into support.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic events for both the Euro and the US Dollar but the ECOFIN Meetings take place and can generate strong moves, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD
The CBI Industrial Order Expectations announced yesterday posted a much better than anticipated value and the Pound continued its climb, breaching 1.7040 resistance.


Technical Outlook
If the bulls can sustain such a high price, the only level of interest to the upside is yesterday’s high and other than that we are in “uncharted” territory as far as resistance is concerned because the pair didn’t surpass 1.7040 since 2009. The Pound shows tremendous strength but retracements are to be expected considering the extended bull-run and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but a noteworthy indicator is the Public Sector Net Borrowing announced at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from 9.6 billion to 11.8 billion. The indicator measures the level of debt held by the government and a negative number indicates a surplus, while a positive number suggests deficit; however, lower than anticipated values will be beneficial for the Pound.


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