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  #881  
Old 08-12-2017, 09:53
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL NFP REPORT OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued on a downward path yesterday but price action was mostly choppy due to the lack of economic releases. The speech of ECB President Draghi did not have a strong impact on the single currency.


Technical Outlook

Bearish momentum is starting to fade as we see more and more candles with long wicks and also, the pair hasn’t made any significant advances yesterday. This suggests that a move up will soon follow but as long as the pair is trading below 1.1825 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is negative. Today the US jobs data will have a strong impact on the pair’s direction, so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

There’s nothing important on the calendar for the Euro but the US Dollar will be heavily affected by the most important US jobs report: the Non-Farm Employment Change (aka Non-Farm Payrolls). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The time of release is 1:30 pm GMT, the expected reading is 198K (previous 261K) and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

The pair dropped into the support at 1.3320 early in yesterday’s trading session but the Pound recovered the losses after an EU official mentioned that progress has been made on Brexit negotiations.


Technical Outlook

The pair’s movement remains very dependent on any Brexit news that come out without warning but from a technical perspective, as long as price is not clearly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias remains mostly bearish. Of course the US Dollar will be affected today by major employment data, so the technical side will be overshadowed by the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is today’s only notable indicator for the Pound. The report shows changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually has a medium impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 0.1%.
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  #882  
Old 11-12-2017, 12:30
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TESTS SUPPORT, BEARS BUILD UP STEAM FOR ANOTHER PUSH LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a better than expected reading but the previous value was revised lower and this generated a mixed reaction and a perfect bounce at support.



Technical Outlook

The target at 1.1735 was touched Friday and price reacted to it by bouncing higher but the medium term bias remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. After the current bullish retracement is complete, we expect to see a break of 1.1735 and a consequent move into 1.1700 but today will most likely be a slow day, with price trading in a relatively tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The JOLTS Job Openings will be today’s only release worth mentioning, although this indicator has a negligible impact most of the time. It shows the monthly number of job openings, excluding the farming sector and usually strengthens the US Dollar if the actual value surpasses estimates. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 6.03 Million.



GBP/USD

Even before the U.S. jobs data came out Friday, price started to drop and the Non-Farm Payrolls added more fuel to the US Dollar, taking the pair into support. A minor bullish move was seen late in the afternoon but the session was overall bearish.



Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3500 and this is another blow to the medium term uptrend. The picture is mixed but the bounce at 1.3360 will most likely trigger a climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3410. However, if this resistance zone holds and rejects price, we will probably see a break of 1.3360.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any notable release. This may translate into a slow and ranging trading session.
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  #883  
Old 12-12-2017, 06:54
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[color=#000066][align=center]FOREX NEWS: POUND TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE BRITISH CPI RELEASE
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[color=#000066]EUR/USD
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Forex News: Yesterday the economic scene was calm and without any major data releases; however, the pair continued higher at a relatively slow pace and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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Technical Outlook

The last few bullish candles are showing wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which may suggest that the retracement started at 1.1735 is coming to an end. If the 50 period EMA is surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.1825 but at the moment it seems like the pair is lacking the strength to break that mark. A bounce lower at the 50 EMA will make 1.1735 the new target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 300 German analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. This is an indicator of economic health and optimism, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 17.9 can strengthen the Euro but the impact is usually medium.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US Producer Price Index will come out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The forecast is a change of 0.4% and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar because the indicator has inflationary implications.



[color=#000066]GBP/USD
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The pair had a choppy trading session yesterday, amid a lacklustre economic environment. Neither side was in clear control but an early climb was quickly reversed.


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Technical Outlook

The bulls tried yesterday to move price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.3410 resistance but the attempt resulted in a long rejection candle and a drop into the support at 1.3360. The pair’s direction today will be heavily influenced by the British inflation data, so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary but if the pair stays below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a drop into 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index will be released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The expected reading is 3.0%, same as previous.
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  #884  
Old 13-12-2017, 15:58
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 2017

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Producer Price Index released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations of 0.4%, so the release didn’t generate strong movement. However, the session was controlled in most part by the bears and the pair touched support.


Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1735 rejected price several times in the past and acted as a strong barrier, so a break would mean a big victory for the bears and would take the pair into 1.1700 in the very near future. Our outlook is bearish, anticipating such a move but also, we expect a retracement if price hits 1.1700 mark. The US Dollar will be affected by the Fed rate announcement, so we may see choppy price action until the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day will be the Fed rate announcement scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT and followed shortly after (7:30 pm GMT) by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The Fed is expected to hike the rate from the current <1.25% to <1.50% and if this is the case, the US Dollar will likely see a boost of volatility, so caution is expected.

Earlier in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be released and since this is one of the main gauges of inflation, higher numbers than the forecast 0.4% will likely strengthen the greenback.



GBP/USD

Yesterday the British CPI posted a value of 3.1%, above the expectations of 3.0% and this initially created Pound strength but immediately after, the US Dollar took over and erased all Pound gains, creating a choppy session.


Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price briefly above 1.3360, the pair descended and is now testing 1.3320 support on the back of mild US Dollar strength. It must be noted that the candles have long wicks in their upper part, which is a sign of rejection at resistance and increased bearish pressure, so we expect to see a break of the current support (1.3320) and a move into 1.3280 where a pullback may occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Average Earnings Index will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. The expected change is 2.5% (previous 2.2%) and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be affected by the Fed announcement later in the day.
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  #885  
Old 14-12-2017, 07:48
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FOREX NEWS: FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT IS DONE. ECB AND BOE NEXT!

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Fed hiked the interest rate to <1.50% as it was widely anticipated but the Rate Statement didn’t show a hawkish stance and this allowed the pair to climb. Also, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned uncertainty about inflation in her press conference and this further weakened the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at 1.1735 support and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average with authority but stopped at 1.1825 at the time of writing. We expect this resistance level to be broken and price to head into 1.1875 in the near future. If the pair bounces lower from the current level but still remains above the 50 EMA, the outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move into the next resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the release will most likely create increased volatility. Later at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference where he will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the press conference is known to be a strong market mover, so caution is recommended because the impact cannot be anticipated.

At the same time (1:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The impact is usually high and numbers above the forecast 0.6% strengthen the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound capitalized on the Fed rate announcement yesterday and the pair moved to the upside, surpassing the 50 period EMA and making the short-to-medium term outlook bullish.



Technical Outlook

Downside movement stalled around 1.3320 and price jumped into 1.3410 after the Fed rate announcement and press conference. The bullish momentum is likely to take the pair above the current resistance and closer to 1.3450 – 1.3500. A retracement will follow if the pair reaches these levels but as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day will be the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%. The indicator usually boosts the Pound if it posts readings above forecast and the opposite is true for values below expectations.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but since no change is anticipated for quite a long while, we expect the event to create only moderate volatility unless surprises happen.

Last edited by GDMFX; 14-12-2017 at 07:51.
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  #886  
Old 15-12-2017, 08:19
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FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AFTER ECB PRESSER. BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES

EUR/USD
Forex News: The ECB left the interest rate unchanged as expected and the Euro had a mixed reaction, first spiking higher and then retracing into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar on the other hand, was boosted by better than expected Retail Sales and this contributed to the drop.



Technical Outlook

The pair is now showing a candle with a very long upper wick, which is a clear sign of rejection; however, the US Dollar is still lacking strong momentum and the pair is testing the 50 period EMA, so we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario. If the Moving Average will be broken, the pair may try to break 1.1735 again and otherwise, we expect to see a move above 1.1825 and closer to 1.1875. Today we don’t have major announcements, so we may see a ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Industrial Production will be the most notable release of the say, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The report tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by factories and has a positive impact on the greenback if it posts a higher than expected value.



GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted in the early part of yesterday’s trading session by upbeat British Retail Sales but it had a muted reaction to the BOE decision to maintain rates unchanged, as expected. Later in the session the US Dollar recovered some of the early losses and took the pair into support.



Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bounce at 1.3450 can be considered a simple retracement so the outlook remains bullish. Today’s price action will likely take place between the 50 EMA and 1.3450 and a break of one of these boundaries will probably trigger a stronger move in that direction. However, the economic calendar is light today and this could translate into a slow session.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.
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  #887  
Old 18-12-2017, 09:57
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FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, EUROZONE CPI EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair came under pressure Friday after failing to break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and finished the week in negative territory. The US Dollar has now erased all losses incurred after the FOMC Meeting.



Technical Outlook

Price is now very close to a bullish trend line and early in today’s session we expect to see a break or a bounce at the said trend line. A bounce higher will take price into the 50 EMA and a break will probably trigger a move into 1.1700 territory but given the lack of major economic releases, we don’t expect to see a break of the 50 EMA or 1.1700 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the only notable event of the day. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as the main gauge of inflation but the Final version has a low impact; nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 1.5% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped on the back of Brexit concerns and lost more than 100 pips, finishing the week in negative territory. However, price is still ranging from a longer term perspective and support is still holding.



Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.3320 – 1.3300 rejected price twice in a relatively short period and now it is being tested again. After Friday’s strong drop, we will likely see a small pullback but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.3320 and a consequent move into 1.3280.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any major economic releases. Brexit talks and negotiations can affect the currency, so caution is recommended.
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  #888  
Old 19-12-2017, 15:04
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FOREX NEWS: FRESH US DOLLAR SELLING PRESSURE SENDS THE PAIRS FLYING. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The German political scene was one of the catalysts behind the pair’s push above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seen yesterday. The US Dollar weakened on concerns regarding the long awaited U.S. tax reform bill.



Technical Outlook

The pair has climbed above the 50 EMA with strong bullish momentum and is now testing the resistance at 1.1825. If this level will be broken, we expect price to climb into 1.1875 region where the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought, signalling a retracement. If 1.1825 will reject price lower and the bulls cannot keep it above the 50 EMA, we will probably see a return into 1.1735 during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate survey will be today’s highlight for the Euro, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for economic and business conditions in Germany. The time of release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected reading is 117.6; higher numbers show optimism, strengthening the single currency but the impact is low-to-medium.

On the US Dollar side the most notable release will be the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. This is a good indicator of future activity in the construction sector and usually a reading above the forecast 1.28M (annualized number) strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was the main driver of yesterday’s price action. The pair erased most of the losses incurred Friday and is now trading above the 50 period EMA once again.



Technical Outlook

As seen from yesterday’s price behaviour, the pair doesn’t have a clear bias and all moves are reversed even if they look strong at first. Two levels are key for medium term movement: the support around 1.3320 and the resistance at 1.3450. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA we expect it to reach 1.3450 but until one of the key levels is broken, out bias is mostly neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic day ahead, without any major releases scheduled. Price action can be affected by Brexit negotiations so the pair remains high risk.
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  #889  
Old 20-12-2017, 03:46
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES. CAN THE US DOLLAR MAKE A COMEBACK?

EUR/USD


Forex News: US Dollar weakness persisted throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair reversed an earlier drop that found support near the 50 EMA. The German IFO Business Climate survey came slightly below expectations but the impact wasn’t major.



Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing 1.1825 resistance for the second time in a short while but the latest candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, which is a sign of rejection. If the current resistance cannot be broken, we expect to see a drop through the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a move closer to 1.1735 in the near future. The pair is in a range, so we expect choppy price action until a clear breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales will be released, showing how many houses were sold during the previous month, apart from new buildings. The indicator usually has a low-to-medium impact but higher numbers than the forecast 5.53 Million (annualized number) can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound bulls failed to keep the pair above the 50 EMA, so yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bears but price action remained choppy.



Technical Outlook

The failure to continue upward after the initial break of the 50 period EMA shows that bearish pressure is increasing and that we will most likely see a touch of 1.3320 support. The pair remains in a range from a longer term perspective and today’s direction will probably be influenced by the testimony of BOE Governor Carney.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee on the topic of the November Financial Stability Report. The event is likely to generate increased volatility, so caution is advised.
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  #890  
Old 22-12-2017, 07:24
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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES AS THE PAIRS STRUGGLE TO FIND DIRECTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained in a choppy and tight range, without any major developments. The bulls failed to capitalize on the break of resistance and price returned below the level. The lack of major economic announcements contributed to this behaviour.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1875 didn’t generate a strong continuation climb and soon the pair retraced lower but the bearish move lacked strong momentum and the entire session was choppy. As long as the pair is still trading above the 50 Exponential Moving Average the bias remains bullish but this doesn’t exclude a drop into the 50 EMA and the support at 1.1825. Another break of 1.1875 resistance should be considered a true break only after a full bullish candle closes above the level.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have two economic releases that can affect the US Dollar: the Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the New Home Sales at 3:00 pm GMT. Higher numbers for these indicators usually strengthen the US Dollar but their impact is low-to-medium and are not known to be major market movers. The expected change for the Durable Goods Orders is 2.1% (much better than the previous -0.8%) and the forecast for the New Home Sales is 654K (previous 685K).

GBP/USD

The pair wasn’t affected much by the economic indicators released yesterday but drifted lower and continued to show choppy movement. Price is still in a range, without a clear bias.



Technical Outlook


Until the pair breaks 1.3320 or 1.3420, it can be considered in a range and we can expect to see reversals on the lower time frames. Yesterday price moved below the 50 EMA then tried to return above it but failed and this is a sign that bearish pressure is increasing; however, the last candle also has a long wick, which is a sign of indecision. Our bias is slightly bearish for the short term, anticipating a touch of 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook


The British Current Account will be released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of -21.5 Billion. It measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services and has a medium impact on the Pound. Numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency.

At the same time the Final version of the British GDP is released but the impact is relatively low. However, higher numbers than the anticipated 0.4% have a positive effect on the Pound.
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  #891  
Old 25-12-2017, 06:50
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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY

EUR/USD


Forex News: After a dip Friday the pair bounced at support and pushed higher but remained in a range. The economic data was mixed and did not have a strong impact on the pair’s direction.



Technical Outlook

Today price action will come to a halt due to the Christmas Holiday. It is possible to see small and/or erratic movement but most Forex brokers around the globe will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is Christmas Day, so banks across Europe and in the United States will be closed. The markets will take a breather and the fundamental scene will be totally quiet.

GBP/USD

The British Current Account released Friday came below expectations but this didn’t have a notable impact on the pair and overall price action was jerky, with a slight bearish bias, probably due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.



Technical Outlook

Most markets around the globe will be closed today for Christmas, so price action will come to a stop. Beware of possible traces of liquidity which may trigger short-lived movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the U.S. and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom celebrates Christmas today and no economic releases will take place. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it!
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  #892  
Old 26-12-2017, 07:06
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FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES BUT REMAINS CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE
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EUR/USD

Forex News: Markets and banks were closed yesterday due to Christmas and price action came to a total stop. Today some European countries celebrate Boxing Day, so market behaviour will be still uncertain.



Technical Outlook

Price will start to move today but volume will remain thin and price action will be irregular. A technical prediction cannot be made with accuracy but the levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1825 as support. Caution is recommended because we may see alternating periods of very high and very low volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Most European banks will be still closed today and although U.S. banks will be open, no major economic data will come out and this will surely affect price action.

GBP/USD

The pair didn’t show even the slightest trace of movement yesterday due to Christmas, so we pick up where we left off Friday.



Technical Outlook

Price action will resume today but we don’t expect major developments to take place mostly because volumes will be thin and volatility will be unpredictable. Caution is recommended today and in fact for the remainder of the year.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will be closed in observance of Boxing Day and no economic data will be released, which is another reason for irregular and choppy price action.
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  #893  
Old 27-12-2017, 17:25
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING VOLUME REMAINS LOW, U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER MILD MOMENTUM


EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action resumed yesterday but no substantial developments took place, as it was anticipated due to the low trading volumes.





Technical Outlook


The pair moved higher and reached the resistance at 1.1875 but the level couldn’t be broken on several attempts. This doesn’t necessarily mean that 1.1875 is going to hold, because the pair’s direction will remain uncertain until the markets will gather a bit more volume. We expect choppy trading above and below 1.1875 but we cannot rule out a sudden spike generated by the low trading volume.


Fundamental Outlook


The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will come out today at 3:00 pm GMT, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about the overall economic situation. Usually a higher number shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but given the current situation of thin trading volumes, the impact is more difficult to anticipate; today’s forecast is 128.2.


GBP/USD


As it was expected, price action remained very slow and choppy due to the lack of volume and the pair traded in a very narrow range.





Technical Outlook


Price is moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is flat, so an accurate technical prediction is difficult to make. We expect irregular price action and low trading volumes until the first week of January 2018 but beware of potential spikes.


Fundamental Outlook


Just like the rest of the week, today is a slow day for the Pound because no major economic data will be released.

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  #894  
Old 28-12-2017, 15:20
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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS PICK UP SPEED. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT STILL CHOPPY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair picked up speed yesterday and broke the resistance at 1.1875, trading above 1.1900 at the time of writing. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey did not have a huge impact on the market and overall volume remained low.




Technical Outlook

Compared to the previous few days, movement was stronger yesterday but volume is still not back to normal and this means that we may see a sharp reversal or a strong climb into 1.1945 – 1.1950. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and this favours a drop into 1.1875, which may turn into support. Our bias is neutral until volume and volatility return to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

The Chicago PMI will be released today at 2:45 pm GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding overall business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey has a medium impact under normal conditions and higher numbers than the anticipated 62.0 usually generate mild US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable had a bullish bias yesterday and picked up speed compared to the previous days. However, resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible.




Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3420 stopped yesterday’s rally and the pair is likely to reverse at this level, aiming for the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is mostly neutral and price is still in a range, with low volume overall but a break above 1.3420 will take the pair into 1.3450, which is a level where the chances of a reversal will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic data releases for today so the main price driver will be the technical aspect.

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  #895  
Old 29-12-2017, 15:33
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FOREX NEWS: FINAL TRADING DAY OF 2017!

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued on a bullish note yesterday and reached the long term resistance at 1.1945. Part of the reason behind the climb was the low trading volume and soft U.S. economic data.



Technical Outlook

Today is the last trading day of 2017 and this means that we may see irregular price action, possible reversals or even strong directional movement, thus caution is advised through the duration of the day. Strictly from a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index is in overbought territory and price is facing a strong resistance zone (1.1945 – 1.1950), so we expect to see a bounce lower. If 1.1950 is breached, the next big hurdle is 1.2000 but we don’t expect to see a touch of that barrier.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be today’s only notable release but due to the fact that it’s the final trading session of the year, the impact of this indicator might be muted. Under normal circumstances a higher reading than the anticipated 0.5% (previous 0.3%) strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 1:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The Pound bulls took the pair above 1.3420 but price paused at the next resistance (1.3450). From a longer-term perspective, the pair is still in a range, without a clear bias.



Technical Outlook

The level at 1.3450 is a key resistance for long term movement, so it’s very possible to see a bounce lower from here but on the other hand, the low trading volume can make it easier for the bulls to break the level. Trading will be affected by end-of-year choppiness, so caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is yet another lacklustre day for the Pound from a fundamental standpoint as no major indicators will be released. We wish you a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2018!

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  #896  
Old 01-01-2018, 11:34
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FOREX NEWS: NEW YEAR’S DAY BRINGS MARKETS TO A STANDSTILL

EUR/USD


Forex News: The entire last week was bullish and the final trading day of 2017 was no exception. Price broke the key resistance at 1.2000 but then retraced and finished the year very close to the level. The fundamental scene lacked any important releases.



Technical Outlook

Today markets across the globe will be closed and price action will come to a stop. Movement will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in most parts of the globe will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and no economic data will be released today.

GBP/USD

Friday the bulls took price more than 100 pips higher, breaking 1.3500 and approaching 1.3550 resistance. The session ended with a bounce at resistance and a move lower but the bias remains bullish.



Technical Outlook

Today price action across the board will come to a stop, celebrating to New Year’s Day and trading will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks and financial institutions will be closed today as well, so the markets will come to a stop and activity will resume tomorrow.

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  #897  
Old 02-01-2018, 09:10
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FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES FOR THE FIRST TRADING DAY OF 2018

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the market stood still as people around the globe celebrated the New Year, so we pick up where we left off Friday, right on the ley resistance at 1.2000.



Technical Outlook

Price direction is difficult to predict because the markets are still under the influence of low trading volumes. Strictly from a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is showing rejection after the move above 1.2000. This suggests that a move lower will follow, so it’s possible to see a descent into the previous level at 1.1945 – 1.1950.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected today by any notable economic releases and this may be another reason for irregular price action.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair did not move due to New Year celebrations so today we will get a fresh start with the first trading session of 2018.



Technical Outlook

The near-touch of 1.3550 resistance combined with the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index triggered a rejection lower that brought price very close to the psychological level at 1.3500. If this level will be broken, the pair might continue towards 1.3450 but keep in mind that trading volume is still not back to normal and this may translate into irregular or choppy price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as a gauge of optimism and higher numbers than the forecast 58.0 usually strengthen the Pound but today’s impact is difficult to anticipate.

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  #898  
Old 03-01-2018, 09:13
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FOREX NEWS: VOLUMES BACK TO NORMAL. US MANUFACTURING PMI AND FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite being overbought, the pair continued higher yesterday and even approached 1.2092, which is the highest price reached in 2017. Most of the move was due to US Dollar weakness but part of it was erased in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

Price is deep in overbought territory and it shows rejection after coming close to last year’s high (1.2092). This suggests that we may see a deeper pullback, possibly into 1.2000 but overall the US Dollar is weak against most of its counterparts and the bias is bullish, so once the retracement is over we expect to see a move into 1.2100 area.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will come out, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is relatively mild; today’s forecast is 58.3.

At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting, outlining the reasons that determined the rate vote. The release has a higher impact if the document contains hints about future monetary policy, so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday came below expectations but this didn’t hinder the pair’s climb, which extended into 1.3550 resistance.



[/i]Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.3500, turning this level into support and sending the pair above 1.3550 resistance. The next destination will be the resistance zone at 1.3600 – 1.3616 but the Relative Strength Index is overbought, which is an early sign of a potential pullback. Keep in mind that 1.3550 is an important level, so a clear break will probably bring in additional buyers.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by construction data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT; the survey acts as a gauge of optimism and numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency, with a medium impact. Today’s forecast is 53.2, while the previous was 53.1.

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  #899  
Old 04-01-2018, 10:07
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. KEY SUPPORT TESTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears and the FOMC Minutes added some strength to the US Dollar, revealing that some Fed officials were concerned about low inflation expectations but the majority still expect inflation to rise to 2%.




Technical Outlook

The long awaited retracement finally occurred yesterday and now the pair is testing the level at 1.2000. Both oscillators are showing good downside momentum so we expect price to break the current level and to move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is still bullish and the current move is just a needed retracement but if price moves below the 50 EMA, the uptrend started at 1.1735 might be coming to an end.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the number of employed individuals, excluding the farming sector and government. It has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released tomorrow, but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated reading is 191K, very close to the previous 190K.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar made a comeback early during yesterday’s trading session and dragged the pair into 1.3500 support. The FOMC minutes had a relatively low impact but gave the greenback an extra push.




Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3600 resistance the pair retraced lower more than 100 pips, fuelled partly by a worse than anticipated British Construction PMI and partly by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the support at 1.3500 will be broken today, we will most likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly with 1.3450. Our bias is bearish for the short term as long as price is trading below 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook


The Services PMI is the last in this week’s British PMI series but its impact is usually the lowest out of the three. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 58.1; higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and this usually strengthens the Pound but to a limited extent.

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  #900  
Old 05-01-2018, 09:34
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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FIRST NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD


Forex News: Despite a much better than expected ADP jobs report, the pair climbed strongly for most of yesterday’s trading session. 1.2000 is now confirmed as strong support and resistance is once again threatened.



Technical Outlook

The previous high was broken today after a textbook retracement that found support at 1.2000 so all hints point towards a trend continuation and a break of 1.2092 (last year’s high). If this barrier is broken, the next hurdle is located far away, in the 1.2280 zone so surely some weeks will pass until (or if) that mark is hit. A lot will depend today on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report, so the technical aspect will be secondary, especially around the time of release.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major event of the day will be the release of the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone and usually has a strong impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 1.4%, a drop from the previous 1.5%.

Later in the day the US Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important US jobs data and has a strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher levels of employment suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the greenback. The anticipated change is 188K (previous 228K) and the time of release is 1:30 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced at support and moved higher throughout yesterday’s session but the Pound’s climb wasn’t as steep as the Euro’s.



Technical Outlook

Our short term outlook is neutral until we see a clear break or bounce at 1.3550. Once that happens, the next respective targets will become 1.3600 or 1.3500 but keep in mind that the pair will be also affected by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases scheduled for the Pound, but the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s movement.

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  #901  
Old 08-01-2018, 08:59
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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a disappointing reading of 148K (anticipated 190K) and this initially generated a climb based on US Dollar weakness. However, the previous value was revised from 228K to 252K and this allowed the greenback to recuperate the losses.



Technical Outlook

After a long move up, the pair failed twice to move above the resistance at 1.2092, which shows that the uptrend is in need of a deeper retracement, with 1.2000 as first target. It is very possible to see a touch of this level today but we don’t expect the move to extend past it, especially because the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity and will provide extra support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales performed through retail outlets across Europe. However, most European states have already released their retail sales data, so this release is less important. Higher numbers than the anticipated 1.4% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday’s price action was mainly influenced by the mixed NFP report, which showed a worse than expected number but the previous value was revised better, thus creating a mixed reaction.




Technical Outlook

Given Friday’s choppy price action, the next direction is difficult to anticipate but as long as the pair is trading above 1.3550, the bias is slightly bullish and 1.3600 is the first target. A move below this level will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the target for the day. However, due to the lack of economic releases today, it is probable that we will get a slow and possibly ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by any scheduled economic releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

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  #902  
Old 09-01-2018, 09:43
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FOREX NEWS: THE DOLLAR STRIKES BACK. BEARISH PRICE ACTION ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD


Forex News: Monday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the US Dollar made substantial advances south, breaking key support. Part of the US Dollar demand was due to expectations that the Fed may hike rates again in March.




Technical Outlook

The bearish break of the key support at 1.2000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average brought in more sellers and the pair plummeted in close vicinity of the next support at 1.1945 – 1.1950. Early in today’s session we expect to see a touch of this support and if the move turns into a break of the level, the next target will become 1.1900 – 1.1875. Once the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold, the pair will likely retrace to the upside but as long as it stays below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The currencies in the pair will not be affected by scheduled major economic releases, thus the technical aspect will take center stage.

GBP/USD

Early during yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar dragged the pair below 1.3550 but soon after it returned to the level, creating choppy price action as expected.




Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, without a clear direction but 1.3550 is still important for short term movement. Currently price is touching the level after an initial break so we may be dealing with a re-test, meaning that if the bulls cannot take the pair above the level, it will turn into resistance and we will see moves south. If this is true the 50 EMA will be the first target, followed by the support at 1.3500, otherwise 1.3600 will become the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any notable economic data releases.

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  #903  
Old 10-01-2018, 09:28
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN. LOWER PRICES STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen yesterday and the pair was dominated by the bears who managed to break the support at 1.1945 as previously anticipated.




Technical Outlook

The current bias is clearly bearish but the pair has travelled a long distance to the south without a proper pullback and now the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have both entered oversold. These are signs that point towards a move up during today’s trading session but as long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we favour the downside after the said pullback is complete.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have another slow day from a fundamental standpoint, without any major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After moving once again above 1.3550, yesterday the pair finally broke the level as well as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, indicating that the balance of power is tilting towards the short side.





Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing good downside momentum and the 50 EMA seems broken with authority. Unless price quickly reverses and moves above the EMA, we expect to see a break of the support at 1.3500, which if it happens will most likely bring in additional sellers, making 1.3450 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium but positive impact on the Pound if the actual reading surpasses estimates. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.1%.

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  #904  
Old 11-01-2018, 10:15
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW AFTER CHINA NEWS. RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD


Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar took a big hit after news emerged that China is planning to stop buying US government bonds. The pair rallied sharply into 1.2000 area but the level is still holding at the time of writing.




Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move took the pair slightly above 1.2000 resistance but some of the losses were erased as the US Dollar recovered. Currently price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the US Dollar seems weak across the board, so we may very well see a break of 1.2000 and if that materializes, the pair is headed higher. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would make 1.1945 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The most notable release today will be the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price often leads to a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2% (previous 0.4%); numbers above forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After what appeared to be a clean break of 1.3500, the pair rallied on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the China news mentioned above. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and the pair remained in a range.




Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains between 1.3500 support and 1.3600 resistance, we consider it in a ranging phase, without clear direction. The oscillators are lacking momentum and the 50 EMA is starting to turn flat, supporting the view of a ranging market. A potential break of 1.3550 will take price to the top of the range (1.3600) and on the other hand, a bounce would make 1.3500 the target for the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the US PPI will take center stage.
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  #905  
Old 12-01-2018, 16:25
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS THEN DIPS AGAIN. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES IN THE LIMELIGHT

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB revealed yesterday that some changes to the interest rate or QE program might be coming in early 2018 and this was the reason for the strong climb, which was further fuelled by a disappointing U.S. Producer Price Index.



Technical Outlook

The pair rallied after a dip into 1.1945 support and the strong move seen during yesterday’s trading session broke the resistance at 1.2000 with authority. This move will probably extend into the key resistance at 1.2092 (last year’s high) and the probability of another drop below 1.2000 is slim, at least for the moment. The US data released today will surely have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Consumer Price Index will be released today at 1:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for their purchases. It acts as a main gauge of inflation and usually has a positive effect on the greenback if it posts numbers above forecast, which for today is 0.1%.

At the same time the US Dollar will be affected by the US Retail Sales release, which shows changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. It is an important gauge of consumer spending and higher numbers than the expected 0.5% usually strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar gave back all of the previous gains yesterday on the back of a disappointing PPI reading and the pair posted a bullish day, breaking above the 50 period EMA.




Technical Outlook

The latest momentum is clearly bullish based on the US Dollar weakness seen yesterday but the pair is facing a pretty strong resistance at 1.3550. If this barrier will be broken, we expect to see a push into the next key level at 1.3600. Possible moves lower should find good support at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above it, our bias is bullish, although a clear trend is not yet established.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another slow fundamental day ahead but the pair will be fuelled by the U.S. events mentioned earlier and by the technical side.

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  #906  
Old 15-01-2018, 09:46
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FOREX NEWS: UNITED STATES CELEBRATES MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY. LOW TRADING VOLUMES EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s US data was mixed and did little to stop the assault of the Euro, which was boosted by positive news coming from the German political scene. The pair climbed strongly for the entire day, finishing the session more than 150 pips higher.




Technical Outlook

The pair is on a massive bull run and is headed towards the long term resistance at 1.2280 but until it gets there, we will most likely see a pullback. Usually after a strong climb price tends to retrace or to consolidate in a tight range due to profit taking (buyers close their positions by selling). The Relative Strength Index is also overbought, increasing the chance of a move lower but after the possible retracement is over, we expect higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook

Today banks in the United States will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no economic data will be released. Also, Europe will not release any data today and this may lead to a slow, ranging session.

GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar remained under heavy selling pressure for the entire trading session and the pair posted massive gains, reaching a high at 1.3745.



Technical Outlook

The overall environment is clearly bullish but today it is very possible to see a move lower, basically for the same reasons as outlined above. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and usually after a strong move up, price tends to retrace south due to profit taking. After the pullback is complete we expect the pair to move higher unless the US Dollar gets a boost from unexpected news.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any important economic releases, so the technical aspect will prevail.

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  #907  
Old 16-01-2018, 10:15
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH RUN CONTINUES. OVERBOUGHT LEVELS SIGNAL PULLBACKS

EUR/USD


Forex News: Price action remained bullish yesterday but without any major developments coming from the fundamental scene. The pair reached the long term resistance at 1.2280 and bounced lower.




Technical Outlook

The massive bullish rally seen last week and yesterday has brought the pair into the resistance at 1.2280 and the Relative Strength Index in deep overbought territory. These two facts will most likely trigger a pullback today but after its completion, we expect the pair to break 1.2280 – 1.3000. If that happens, the pair will be in “uncharted” territory until it reaches the zone around 1.2600.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and US Dollar have a slow economic day ahead, without any notable releases, so the technical aspect will take center stage.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar couldn’t make any advances against the Pound, although some attempts were made, so the pair continued higher. This was a continuation of the momentum started last week, not the result of new developments on the fundamental scene.




Technical Outlook

The bulls are in clear control but the possibility of a retracement lower is higher than it was yesterday, due to the long distance travelled upwards in a short period of time. The RSI and Stochastic are extremely overbought, thus increasing the chances of a pullback. The levels to watch are 1.3745 as potential support and place where bullish movement may resume and 1.3860 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook


The day’s main event will be the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a yearly change of 3.0% compared to the previous 3.1%. This is the main gauge of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator usually strengthens the Pound if it posts readings above forecast.


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  #908  
Old 17-01-2018, 09:49
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FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS FINALLY HAPPENING. OVERALL BIAS STILL VERY BULLISH

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair finally retraced lower during yesterday’s trading session after failing to break 1.2280 resistance. The move was mostly technical as no major economic data was released for either currency in the pair.



Technical Outlook

Several candles have shown long wicks on their upper part, piercing through 1.2280 and then retreating below the level. This is a clear sign that 1.2280 cannot be broken for the time being, so we expect the retracement started yesterday to extend below 1.2220, which is a minor support. A good place for upside movement to resume is somewhere around 1.2200 but if that barrier is broken, the pair will be headed into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation but the Final version tends to have a lesser impact than the previous two versions; however, a higher change than the forecast 1.4% usually strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher.

On the US Dollar side the only notable release will be the Industrial Production, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT. The indicator has a low-to-medium impact and higher numbers than the forecast 0.3% have a positive influence on the greenback.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the British CPI matched the market consensus so the release didn’t have a strong impact on the Pound and the pair finally moved lower after a long period of bullish action.



Technical Outlook

Price action created resistance at 1.3820 and the pair dropped into the minor support at 1.3745 but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still close to overbought levels so it is very possible to see a continuation of this retracement below 1.3745. The overall bias is still clearly bullish, so we expect a break of 1.3820 after the pullback is over.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable economic data releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

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  #909  
Old 18-01-2018, 11:10
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[/i]FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET ENTERS CONSOLIDATION PHASE. STRONG BREAKOUTS ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Final version of the European CPI was in line with expectations, posting a 1.4% change and the pair remained inside a range for most of yesterday’s session.



Technical Outlook

Price spiked above 1.2280 but immediately retraced below the level and dropped into the support at 1.2195. This type of behaviour means that the pair is likely to spend an extended period of time in a consolidation phase between 1.2195 and 1.2280 but once a clear breakout occurs, price will likely move in that direction for a longer period of time.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits come out, showing how many permits were issued during the previous month. This is a good gauge of construction activity because getting a permit is the first step in starting a building and usually higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not always notable. Today’s forecast is 1.29 Million, very close to the previous 1.30 Million.


GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable showed mixed movement yesterday and remained confined in a relatively small range after a failed attempt to break resistance.



Technical Outlook

The overall bias remains clearly bullish but it seems the pair is taking a breather and is consolidating between 1.3745 and 1.3820. Until a breakout occurs we expect to see choppy movement and once it does, the pair will extend into 1.3860 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, depending on the direction of the breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic data today so the technical aspect will be the main price driver.

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  #910  
Old 19-01-2018, 09:43
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FOREX NEWS: UPTREND STALLS. BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR POUND’S NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued to trade in a range yesterday and showed a bounce at resistance followed by a failed break of support. The US data was mixed and didn’t have a notable impact on price action.



Technical Outlook

The uptrend is still strong but for the time being the pair remains in consolidation phase until 1.2195 support or 1.2280 resistance is broken. It must be noted that the bulls have tried several times to break 1.2280 and each time the attempt resulted in a huge pin bar candle (very long wick, small body), which is a sign of strong rejection. If the pair descends again below 1.2195 we expect to see an encounter with the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release for the pair will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This survey gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Higher readings indicate optimism and usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close or matches expectations. Today’s forecast is 97.0 while the previous was 95.9.

GBP/USD

The pair created a new top at 1.3942 but retraced lower and at the time of writing it is hovering close to the previous resistance at 1.3860. The outlook remains bullish but short term action is mixed.




Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is moving lower but price is still moving higher. This is a bearish divergence that warns of a potential move south, which will have increased chances of happening if the pair moves below 1.3860. Such a scenario will have 1.3820 – 1.3800 as first target but if the pair stays above 1.3860, we expect another move towards 1.3942.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail stores. Such sales represent the main part of consumer spending, thus higher numbers can have a positive impact on the currency. Today’s expected change is a drop of -0.8% from the previous 1.1%.

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  #911  
Old 22-01-2018, 10:00
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FOREX NEWS: RANGE-BOUND TRADING AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday we saw mixed price action and yet another move into resistance that resulted in a bounce lower. The US Consumer Sentiment survey posted a lower than expected reading but the US Dollar still gained against the Euro and overall price remained in range-mode.



Technical Outlook

Price bounced several times at 1.2280 resistance and this suggests that we will see moves lower before bullish price action can resume. For today we expect to see a slow and ranging session, confined within the channel created by 1.2280 and 1.2195. A break of the 50 period EMA will make 1.2100 the next target but it will probably take more than one day to reach it.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Eurogroup Meetings will take place in Brussels but other than that, the fundamental scene is calm and without major economic data.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair made another attempt to break the previous high located at 1.3942 but this resulted in a perfect bounce lower, thus establishing the level as strong resistance for the future.



Technical Outlook

The pair showed several times that it is overextended and the last bounce at 1.3942 is indicative of an extended move to the downside. The first target for today will be 1.3820, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the bulls take price higher from the current level and break 1.3942, we don’t expect strong moves above it.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by economic data so the technical aspect will take center stage.


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  #912  
Old 23-01-2018, 10:38
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FOREX NEWS: EURO STALLS, POUND GAINS MOMENTUM. WEF MEETINGS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained inside the range for the entire yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to the lack of any fundamental developments or economic data releases. Trading was choppy and without important advances to either side.



Technical Outlook

The balance of power doesn’t favour either side as long as price remains confined inside the channel created by 1.2195 support and 1.2280 resistance. Usually when a horizontal channel is broken, price continues to move in the direction of the break for an extended period of time and because an uptrend is in place, we favour a bullish break, followed by upside movement. Today’s price action will likely be influenced by the WEF Meetings, so caution is advised.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 300 German investors and professional analysts about a 6-month outlook for the German economy. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health but the impact is not always notable; nonetheless, numbers above the expected 17.8 can strengthen the Euro. Also, today is the first day of the World Economic Forum Annual Meetings held in Davos.


GBP/USD

The bias was mostly bullish yesterday and the Pound bulls made notable advances, breaking the previous top at 1.3942.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3942 marks the resumption of the uptrend and indicates that higher prices will probably follow. The next major hurdle is the psychological resistance at 1.4000, which is a big, round number that will very likely generate a bounce lower if it’s touched. It must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is again close to overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic data today but United Kingdom representatives will attend the WEF Meetings and this may be a reason for increased volatility.

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  #913  
Old 24-01-2018, 16:34
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES ANOTHER BEATING. HIGHER PRICES TO FOLLOW?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair remained in a tight range for most of yesterday’s trading session but later in the afternoon bullish pressure increased and we saw a break of the horizontal channel. However, it remains to be seen whether this break is true or not.



Technical Outlook

The move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2195 support and 1.2280 resistance cannot be considered a true break at least at the time of writing. If it will turn out to be a clear break, then 1.2280 will become support and the next target will become 1.2350 followed by 1.2400. A more important resistance is located at 1.2570 but that’s a distance too big to be travelled over the course of one day.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day ahead, with some Eurozone data making the headlines: at 9:00 am GMT the European Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions in the respective sector. The surveys act as leading indicators of optimism and economic health but the impact is often overlooked by market participants if the actual reading doesn’t differ a lot from expectations. The forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 60.4 and for the Services PMI is 56.5.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar remained under pressure yesterday and allowed the Pound to take the pair into 1.4000 territory. The move was mostly technical but the USD weakness played an important role.



Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is hovering near 1.4000, which is a major psychological level that may trigger a bounce lower. The overall bias is clearly bullish and the pair is in an uptrend so all moves south should be treated as retracements as long as price remains above the 50 EMA. The first target for the day is 1.4050 if 1.4000 turns into support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight for the Pound will be the Average Earnings Index, scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT. The index shows changes in the wages paid by employers for labor and acts as a leading indicator of inflation because when businesses increase the price they pay for work, they usually increase the price of their products. The expected change is 2.5%, same as previous and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.


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  #914  
Old 25-01-2018, 09:38
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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT IN THE LIMELIGHT ONCE AGAIN. POUND AND EURO POST MASSIVE GAINS

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar remained under heavy selling pressure for the entire trading session and the pair made huge advances, reaching the resistance zone around 1.2400.



Technical Outlook

Part of yesterday’s move was triggered by new hints that the United Kingdom – European Union divorce will be smooth, so both the Euro and the Pound strengthened against the US Dollar. The pair is now sitting at a big round number (1.2400) which acts as resistance and this calls for a retracement. Some of yesterday’s buyers are likely to close out their positions due to profit taking and this normally generates a move lower. The overall bias is clearly bullish so after the pullback, we expect higher prices.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the Euro today for the ECB Interest Rate announcement scheduled at 12:45 pm GMT and followed shortly after by Mario Draghi’s press conference (1:30 pm GMT). The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.00%) but if the ECB President will hint towards changes to the QE program, then the Euro is likely to show strong volatility.


GBP/USD

Positive British jobs data combined with hopes of a smooth Brexit were the main ingredients for yesterday’s huge rally that took the price above 1.4200. The pair is now prone to a move lower.



Technical Outlook

The pair is massively overextended and once the bullish momentum dims down we expect to see a pullback based on profit taking. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both above their respective overbought levels, thus supporting a bounce lower. Of course, the main bias is clearly bullish so we will most likely see higher prices after the retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major data releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

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  #915  
Old 29-01-2018, 14:05
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: BALANCE TILTS TOWARDS THE SHORT SIDE AS PULLBACKS CONTINUE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the Advance version of the US Gross Domestic Product showed a very disappointing figure of just 2.6%, compared to the expected 3.0% but the previous value was revised better. All this generated a mixed trading session, with choppy movement.



Technical Outlook

Bullish momentum shows signs of slowing down but the pair is facing support at 1.2400. This level will probably generate a bounce higher but we don’t expect to see a move above last week’s high located at 1.2540. On the other hand, a break of 1.2400 will send the pair into the 50 EMA but the oscillators lack momentum and the fundamental scene will be mostly quiet today, which are factors that may contribute to a low volatility session.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks any notable economic data releases for both currencies, so we expect slow or possibly ranging price action.

GBP/USD

Price made another attempt to climb into 1.4300 resistance but returned lower later during Friday’s trading session. This may mark the beginning of a ranging period.



Technical Outlook

After the huge climb started at 1.3450, the pair is finally showing signs of slowing down as seen by Friday’s failed attempt to move into 1.4300 and the consequent drop below 1.4200. Today we will most likely see a drop into 1.4100 and possibly into the 50 EMA but the overall outlook is clearly bullish so the current move should be treated as a retracement, not a reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected by economic data today, so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s behavior.

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  #916  
Old 30-01-2018, 16:05
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS REACH KEY SUPPORT. ANOTHER RALLY IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The sellers were in control for the most part of yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to technical reasons because the fundamental scene was calm and without any notable releases.




Technical Outlook

Price is currently retracing from highs and approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as it remains above the 50 EMA, the move is considered a normal pullback after an extended period of upside movement but a break of the mentioned support will possibly trigger a stronger move south. However, the uptrend is still in place as long as 1.2200 remains support.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day will be the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is one of the most important in the Eurozone, the impact of the CPI is usually high. The time of release is 1:00 pm GMT, the expected change is -0.5% (previous 0.6%) and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey will come out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about overall economic conditions in the United States. A higher than anticipated value suggests that consumer spending will increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The forecast is 123.2 but the impact is usually medium, not high.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday, so the session belonged mostly to the sellers, who managed to break the previous support at 1.4100.




Technical Outlook

The break of 1.4100 is an important victory for the bears but now they are facing a more important support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this barrier will take the pair into 1.4000, which is a key level, both from a technical standpoint, as well as psychological. Our outlook remains bearish for the short term but the pair is still in a clear and strong uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. This speech has the potential to move the Pound strongly, so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

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  #917  
Old 31-01-2018, 04:41
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FOREX NEWS: BUYERS STEP BACK IN, AHEAD OF KEY EUROZONE INFLATION DATA AND FED INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the bulls came back into the market, taking the pair above 1.2400 after a bounce at the 50 EMA. The US Consumer Confidence survey came out above expectations but the US Dollar remained mostly unaffected.



Technical Outlook

The pair has already bounced twice at the 50 period EMA and broke 1.2400 to the upside. These are clear bullish signs that suggest we will see higher prices in the near future. The first notable zone of interest is located around the previous top at 1.2540 but it’s also likely to see ranging price movement until later in the afternoon when the FOMC Statement is released.

Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day ahead for both the Euro and the US Dollar: at 10:00 am GMT the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index comes out, showing the state of inflation across the Eurozone. The indicator has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s forecast is a change of 1.3% compared to the previous 1.4%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Statement, which contains the outcome of the rate vote (no change expected from the current <1.50%) but also details about the reasons that determined the vote. If we will get some hints about future rate increases, the US Dollar will likely move strongly, otherwise the impact will be limited.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bearish retracement found support at the key 1.4000 level and bounced higher for more than 100 pips. The testimony of BOE Governor Carney went mostly unnoticed.




Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by a bearish trend line seen on the chart above and at the time of writing, this line is not broken. If price returns below the line and below 1.4100, we will most likely see another touch of the 50 period EMA and possibly 1.4000. A successful break of the trend line will make 1.4200 the first target of the day but a lot will depend on the US data.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any important releases for the Pound today so the US events will be the main market driver.

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  #918  
Old 01-02-2018, 14:51
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: FED SEES ‘GRADUAL INCREASES’, US DOLLAR RESPONDS POSITIVELY

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair traded above 1.2400 for most of yesterday’s trading session but the US Dollar showed some signs of strength at the time of the FOMC release. The Fed kept the rate unchanged but mentioned that gradual increases will be performed as the economy requests it.




Technical Outlook

The bias remains bullish as long as price is above the 50 period but it is now clear that the upside momentum is fading. This means that we will probably see a drop through the 50 EMA and closer to the support around 1.2300 – 1.2280. A bounce at the current support (1.2400) would invalidate such a scenario and will make 1.2540 the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Action slows down a bit today and the US Manufacturing PMI will be the only notable release. Scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT, this survey shows the opinions of purchasing managers about economic and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as an indicator of optimism that has a medium impact on the currency; higher numbers than the forecast 58.7 are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Price action was choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session but with a bullish bias and the pair broke the bearish trend line, moving into the target at 1.4200 before dropping lower.




Technical Outlook

The move lower generated by the FOMC Statement is likely to extend into the support at 1.4100 and possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, we don’t expect a break of these two barriers unless surprises occur. The overall trend is clearly bullish, so we favor the long side after a bounce at one of the mentioned support barriers.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the US Dollar, the Pound will be affected today by manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. The survey is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 56.5; the impact is medium-to-low and higher numbers strengthen the currency.

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