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  #1  
Old 17-06-2014, 13:46
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Default Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB AND BOE MONETARY POLICIES START TO DIVERGE. THE TWO CURRENCIES MOVE FURTHER APART


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The Euro weakened throughout last week as the effects of the ECB decision to lower the interest rate and to introduce a negative deposit rate started to make their presence known. The pair broke 1.3585 support but the bears ran out of steam before touching 1.3480.


Technical Outlook
The first major barrier to the downside is represented by the support level at 1.3480 while to the north, resistance sits at 1.3585 followed by 1.3680. We anticipate a touch of support, but a clear break will probably occur only if the move is backed up by fundamental factors. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and price will have a tough time traveling south while this condition is present.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the week is scheduled Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey focused on the current and future economic conditions as seen by German analysts and institutional investors. The same day the American Consumer Price Index, which is an important gauge of inflation, is announced.

Wednesday all eyes will be on the US interest rate, the FOMC Economic Projections and the FOMC Press Conference, a cluster of events that will most likely have a huge impact on the market. The Eurogroup Meetings start Thursday and same day the United States will announce the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector. Friday lacks major events except the ECOFIN Meetings which take place in Brussels.


GBP/USD
The Pound was heavily influenced by Mark Carney’s comments regarding a potential rate increase which may come sooner than anticipated. The impact was tremendous and the pair skyrocketed towards the peak at 1.6996.


Technical Outlook
The pair reached a critical point and at the moment is testing a multi-year high. A break of 1.6996 (1.7000) would open the door for a touch of 1.7040 (visible on a Weekly chart) but a move lower would create a Double Top on a Daily chart, a powerful bearish pattern. The bulls have regained almost total control of the pair but the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching an overbought state so we are likely to see price pause here or even retrace slightly lower.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will be affected Tuesday by the release of the Consumer Price Index and Wednesday a breakdown of the latest Interest Rate votes will be made public. However, the most important Pound affecting event of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the UK Retail Sales which account for a major part of the entire economy and have a strong impact on the pair’s movement. As always, the US events ahead will directly affect the pair.


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  #2  
Old 30-06-2014, 14:01
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AND US NON-FARM PAYROLLS – INGREDIENTS FOR A BREAKOUT



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The pair just finished a ranging week when price was confined between support and resistance and economic data didn’t have a strong impact; price movement was less than 80 pips for the entire week from high to low.


Technical Outlook
Last week price slowly crawled upwards and 1.3500 support wasn’t threatened. The bullish push lacks strength and it looks like it won’t be able to break 1.3680 resistance if it gets there so we anticipate a bounce lower. However, if the bulls find the strength to break the mentioned level, the next barrier is located at 1.3785 which will be a high probability turning-point, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an overbought condition at the time. To the downside, 1.3500 remains the main level of interest.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s main event is the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which as we know is the main inflation gauge and shows the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The ECB aims to keep inflation just under 2.0% so the current value of 0.5% is considered too low and further decreases can severely weaken the Euro.

Tuesday the US Manufacturing PMI will be released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding economic health and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. Wednesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC and as we know, speeches of heads of central banks can create huge volatility so caution is recommended if trading at the time.

Thursday will be the week’s most important day as the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate and Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference explaining the reasons behind the Rate decision and will possibly offer hints about future monetary policy direction. The same day the US Non Farm Payrolls will be released, showing the change in the number of new jobs created, excluding the farming sector. It is considered the most comprehensive measure of employment in the United States and it is almost always a strong market mover.

Friday the United States celebrate Independence Day so US banks will be closed and no economic data will be released. This is also the reason why the Non Farm Payrolls are not announced Friday, but a day earlier.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a mixed week as BOE Governor Mark Carney adopted a hawkish stance during his speech and reversed a previous move below 1.7000.


Technical Outlook
The pair is close to the multi-year high located at 1.7063 and the Relative Strength Index is hovering close to the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition of the market. On top of this, the bullish momentum seems dampened and a bearish retracement might be in order unless positive economic data is posted by the United Kingdom. The first major support is located at 1.6750 but such a move is probably too much to happen during a single week considering that lately the pair lacks strong movement. Resistance sits at 1.7063 and a break would renew the uptrend, bringing in more buyers.

Fundamental Outlook
Three indexes will be released this week by the United Kingdom: Tuesday we have the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. All three are leading indicators of economic health focused on their respective sectors and they usually have a hefty impact on the Pound, depending on the figures posted. The important US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.

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  #3  
Old 07-07-2014, 13:25
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Default Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: A LACKLUSTER ECONOMIC SCENE TRANSLATES INTO RANGING PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: During the week that just ended ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and the employment situation in the United States showed signs of improvement. As a result the pair moved lower for almost the entire week.


Technical Outlook
Last week we saw the bears in control of the pair and price bounced off 1.3680 resistance; the pair is starting to show stronger movement but it is still confined between the resistance we just mentioned and the support located at 1.3500. A break of either one of these two levels would most likely put an end to the ranging period and would generate an extended move in that direction. Although last week belonged to the bears, our bias is neutral until a breakout occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
Economic data is scarce this week and this might generate slow, ranging movement. Monday lacks important news releases while Tuesday the only notable event is the German Trade Balance which will show the difference between imported and exported goods; usually this indicator has a mild impact on the market.

Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting and more often than not, the US Dollar is highly affected because traders will gain insights into the reasons which stood behind the latest interest rate decision and the pace of the bond purchases. Hints about future monetary direction are usually revealed within the Meeting Minutes document.

Thursday the ECB will release their Monthly Bulletin, containing an economic outlook from the Bank’s viewpoint and more information about economic conditions. The French Industrial Production numbers come out the same day, but both events are considered to have just a medium impact on the Euro. The last day of the week doesn’t hold any special reasons for volatility as no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing and Construction PMIs posted better than expected values last week, further strengthening the Pound and taking the pair to new multi-year highs. The US Non Farm Payrolls release created just a brief retracement lower.


Technical Outlook
Although the Pound is showing tremendous strength lately and the British economy continuously shows signs of improvement, we believe that a bearish pullback is in order. For a long time the pair has been moving upwards, without retracements and the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition, moving well above the 70 level. The main levels to watch are 1.7180 as potential resistance and 1.7000 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the UK will announce the Manufacturing Production numbers which represent about 80% of the entire Industrial Production and have the potential to further strengthen or to weaken the Pound depending on the reading shown. The same day, an estimate of Great Britain’s Gross Domestic Product will be released.

Thursday will probably be the week’s most important day for the Pound as the Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate decision. Although no change is anticipated, the event will most likely generate strong and potentially irregular movement. As always, the American indicators released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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Old 14-07-2014, 13:10
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE TESTIMONIES OF DRAGHI, YELLEN AND CARNEY SET THE STAGE FOR A RETURN OF VOLATILITY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: For the entire last week the pair didn’t have clear direction and strong movement, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases. The week had a 75 pip range from top to low and no important levels were broken.


Technical Outlook
The last important technical event was the bounce lower seen at 1.3700 but last week the bears couldn’t continue the momentum generated by that rejection seen at resistance and price moved in a narrow range. This type of movement doesn’t offer a lot of insight about future direction and for the time being, the first level to watch is the minor support at 1.3585 which may trigger a bounce back up into 1.3700 but a break will make 1.3500 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
The week begins with an important event scheduled Monday: ECB President Mario Draghi will testify about monetary policy in Strasbourg before European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. This speech is considered a high impact event and the market is likely to respond with strong volatility.

Tuesday’s headlines will be held by the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and the US Retail Sales. The same day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify in Washington before the Senate Banking Committee. The topic of the discussion will be the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and strong movement is expected. Wednesday she will testify again on the same matter, but before the House Financial Services Committee; again, caution is recommended because the US Dollar will be highly affected.

Thursday’s main event will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and lately has been closely watched by market participants and by the ECB as well because its current value (0.5%) is far from the desired target of just below 2.0%. The last important event of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn, represents a major part of overall economic activity.


GBP/USD
As expected by almost all market participants and analysts, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at a record low (0.50%) last week and no other events shook the market, thus we had a sideways week.


Technical Outlook
The pair is trapped between 1.7180 resistance and the minor support created at 1.7090. It seems the Pound has reached a top and the overall sentiment is starting to shift towards the short side as high prices are hard to sustain. Supporting this view is also the fact that the Relative Strength Index is starting to descend, coming from an overbought condition so we anticipate a move south this week but the first barrier is of course the current level (1.7090). If bears manage to break it, the first lower target will be 1.7000.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important day of the week for the Pound will probably be Tuesday when UK’s Consumer Price Index is announced and BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing. Both events have the potential to trigger massive moves. Another important Pound-affecting event is scheduled Wednesday in the form of the Claimant Count Change which shows how many people claimed unemployment-related social help during the previous month. The indicator acts as a gauge of economic health: in a thriving economy, jobs are easier to come by. As always, the pair’s movement will be directly affected by the US events released throughout the week.
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Old 21-07-2014, 12:37
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY. SUPPORT THREATENED



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: During the week that just ended, the US Dollar showed signs of recovery on the back of a hawkish attitude of Fed Chair Janet Yellen; however, the US economic data showed mixed readings and the pair’s descent wasn’t spectacular.


Technical Outlook
Price reached the important support located at 1.3500 and at the moment, rejection can be observed: Friday’s candle can be considered a pin bar (which indicates bullish pressure) and we can also notice a double bottom pattern which is another reason to believe that price will have a tough time breaking the current level of support. First resistance is located at 1.3585 while the next support is located at 1.3295. The way price behaves around the current level will probably dictate the next short-term direction.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the political and economical scene is quiet for both the United States and Europe but an important American indicator is released Tuesday: the Consumer Price index. The indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the products they purchase and basically acts as a measure of inflation, with the ability to strengthen the US Dollar if a high reading is posted.

Wednesday we have another quiet day as far as fundamentals are concerned and Thursday’s main events will be the French and German Manufacturing PMIs, both leading indicators of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from their respective countries.

The German IFO Business Climate will be released Friday, showing the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses regarding the current economic conditions and a 6-month outlook. The United States will announce the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years), an indicator which is considered important for future production activity: if the orders increase, the producers will have to increase their activity to fill them.


GBP/USD
Last week the pair remained confined between 1.7180 and 1.7060 but bulls made an attempt to break resistance, which resulted in a bounce lower. Support was pierced but the week ended above it.


Technical Outlook
Although we have a new multi-year high printed at 1.7191, the resistance zone created around 1.7180 wasn’t broken and price is now testing support. Neither bulls nor bears are in control of price direction but this week we anticipate a move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.7180 and 1.7060. The first level of interest to the downside is 1.7000 (if 1.7060 is broken) while to the north 1.7180 remains a strong barrier.

Fundamental Outlook
The first major event for the Pound is scheduled Wednesday when the votes on the latest BOE interest rate decision are announced. This is an opportunity for market participants to see if the MPC members’ opinions regarding the interest rate are starting to diverge; on their last meeting, all members voted to keep the interest rate unchanged and for this release, the same is expected.

Thursday the UK will announce the change in the value of Retail Sales which account for a major part of the economy and thus have a high impact on the Pound. The last important event of the week comes Friday in the form of Preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is considered an economy’s main performance gauge and the Preliminary version tends to have the greatest impact. As always, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.
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Old 29-07-2014, 01:28
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: UNITED STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT: INTEREST RATE AND NON FARM PAYROLLS DECIDE DIRECTION


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bears regained control of the pair and managed to clearly break the support zone created between 1.3520 and 1.3480 as the US economy showed signs of recovery.


Technical Outlook
The bearish momentum is likely to continue now that important support is broken. However, the pair shows an extended move south and a bullish correction is a high probability scenario, especially considering the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on a daily chart as well as on a four hour chart. The first level of support is located at 1.3400 followed by 1.3295 and resistance now sits at 1.3480.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead will be mostly influenced by US economic releases, starting Monday with the US Pending Home Sales (shows the change in the number of houses under contract to be sold once the final transaction is complete) and continuing Tuesday with the US Consumer Confidence. This indicator acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually people tend to spend more when they are confident in the economic situation of their country.

Wednesday is again filled with important US events: a report regarding the jobs situation will be released by a privately owned company, trying to mimic the Government issued Non Farm Payrolls data which comes out 2 days later. The Advance version of the American Gross Domestic Product (an economy’s main performance gauge) will be released the same day and probably the most important event will be the Interest Rate decision which comes out later in the day. The announcement will be accompanied by a FOMC Statement which will outline the reasons behind the rate decision.

Thursday attention shifts towards Europe for the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which acts as ECB’s target for inflation. Friday the most important US jobs-related report comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non Farm Payrolls). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people, is released monthly and is considered a major market mover as more jobs suggest a thriving economy and future increases in consumer spending.


GBP/USD
The Pound was weakened by the value of the British Retail Sales which didn’t meet expectations last week and on top of that, BOE’s Meeting Minutes were more dovish than market participants anticipated. Throughout the week, the bears dominated price action and support was broken.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved below 1.7063 support and even surpassed the psychological level at 1.7000. The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until 1.6920 is touched but if that happens, we expect corrections to the upside in the form of bullish moves. Although the long term uptrend is weakened, the bulls still have underlying strength which may be manifested this week. Immediate resistance is located at 1.7000, followed by the zone around 1.7060.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a very slow week ahead as the United Kingdom scheduled very few economic releases: Tuesday the value of Net Lending to Individuals is announced but the most important event for the Pound will be the release of the Manufacturing PMI which is scheduled Friday. Throughout the week, the focus will be mainly on US events which will probably have a tremendous impact on the pair’s movement.
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Old 04-08-2014, 12:37
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AHEAD. DRAGHI OFFERS CLUES ABOUT MONETARY POLICY AND PRICE DIRECTION



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar benefited last week from a surprising growth of the American Gross Domestic Product, but later in the week almost all gains were erased by a disappointing reading of the NFP. As a result, the week closed near its opening price.


Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is moving out of oversold territory and price quickly returned above the level at 1.3400 after piercing through it earlier in the week. An encounter with the resistance at 1.3480 is very likely to happen this week, given the strong bullish momentum generated by last week’s events, but a move above this level will only happen if it’s backed by fundamental events. Immediate support is still located at 1.3400, followed by 1.3295.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday lacks major events for both the Euro and the US Dollar but Tuesday the greenback will be affected by the release of the Non Manufacturing PMI, an index based on the opinions of purchasing managers outside the manufacturing sector.

Wednesday is again a slow day in terms of fundamental events and Thursday will be the most important day of the week for the Euro as the interest rate is announced (no change anticipated) and the ECB will hold a Press Conference, discussing the rate decision and offering hints about future monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi will also answer journalists’ questions during the conference and this is usually the time when the highest volatility is experienced. This will be the last high-impact event of the week as Friday no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD
For the entire week that just ended the bears were in control of the pair and important levels of support were broken. The Pound is starting to lose its appeal and the long term uptrend is severely weakened.


Technical Outlook
We expect the bearish momentum to continue, but before that happens, we are likely to see bullish corrections, probably during the first part of the week. The Relative Strength Index is sitting below the 30 level, indicating an oversold market and favoring moves to the north; on top of that, for almost three weeks the pair has been traveling straight down and usually, this type of movement calls for a retracement to the upside. First resistance sits at 1.6920 while support is located at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom will release the Construction and Services PMIs Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Wednesday by the Manufacturing Production numbers. Better numbers for all three indicators usually strengthen the Pound as they indicate a thriving economy and optimism regarding business conditions. The Bank of England will announce Thursday the interest rate decision but no change is anticipated from the current value of 0.50%. However, any hints about future rate increases will open the door for speculation and will probably create strong moves.
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Old 11-08-2014, 12:31
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Default Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR LOSES STEAM AS BULLISH RETRACEMENTS ARE IN ORDER



EUR/USD
During last week’s ECB Press Conference, President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates will remain low for an extended period of time in the Euro Zone and the Euro took a brief dive but later in the week, it erased all losses, resulting in a weekly candle which suggests indecision.


Technical Outlook
The pair is printing lower lows on a Daily chart while the Relative Strength Index is making higher lows, a behavior which is known as regular bullish divergence and indicates that a move higher will follow. However, the pair is in a medium term downtrend and this makes moves to the downside very probable once the upside correction is complete. We anticipate a touch of 1.3480 – 1.3500 zone this week, followed by moves to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook
The first notable event of the week occurs Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey based on the opinion of German analysts and professional investors, focused on a 6-month economic outlook.

Wednesday the US Retail Sales come out, showing the change in sales made at retail level compared to last month’s value. Consumer spending accounts for the major part of overall economic activity in the United Sates (more than two thirds) and the retail sales make up for the biggest part of such spending, hence the importance of the indicator.

The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is announced Thursday, showing the overall performance of the German economy which is the backbone of the Euro Zone and the last major event of the week will be the release of the American Producer Price Index scheduled Friday. The indicator tracks changes in price charged by producers for their goods and services and has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will be eventually passed on to the consumer.


GBP/USD
During the first 2 days of last week, the pair completed a bullish retracement and last 3 days belonged to the bears who managed to print a new low. UK’s interest rate remained unchanged, showing that economic recovery is not yet as strong as needed for a rate increase.


Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from November 2013 is broken for some time now but the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory for a second time in a short while and this week we anticipate bullish moves which will most likely clear this condition of the indicator. The first support is located at 1.6700 and so far price doesn’t show that it will reverse before touching it but be aware of any such signs during the early stages of the week. First resistance is located at 1.6920 and the uptrend line could also provide resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday will be the busiest day for the Pound as several events take place: the Claimant Count Change is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people and BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference, discussing the Inflation Report which is released the same day. The Report includes BOE’s view on inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years and combined with the Press Conference, has the potential to be a major market mover for the Pound.

The economic week finishes Friday with the release of the Second Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product which is a gauge of overall economic performance. As always, the US events will directly influence price movement throughout the week.
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Old 18-08-2014, 12:42
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR BULLS TRY TO MAINTAIN THEIR CONTROL



EUR/USD
Last week the pair ranged between support and resistance, a behavior generated by the mixed economic data which was released throughout the week. No significant advances were made by either side and the week was mainly characterized by reversals on the lower time frames.


Technical Outlook
For this week a breakout is imminent; either 1.3330 support or 1.3400 resistance will be broken and price will most likely continue in the direction of the break. The next important zones are located at 1.3480 as resistance and 1.3295 as support and we are likely to see a break of these zones as well. The medium term downtrend is in a consolidation pattern and the next direction will be decided by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The first major event of the week is the release of the American Consumer Price Index scheduled Tuesday and considered one of the main gauges of inflation. Wednesday the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, showing the way the members voted on the interest rate and possibly offering hints about future monetary policy.

Thursday the French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs are released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The same day the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering hints about the state of the manufacturing sector in the district of Philadelphia. The economic week finishes Friday with speeches of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi who will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened severely last week, following a disappointing Inflation Report and a dovish speech of Governor Mark Carney who reiterated the fact that rates will not be increased for an extended period.


Technical Outlook
Despite the recent sell off, the pair is having trouble moving away from the support level at 1.6700. Also, the Relative Strength Index has moved again in oversold territory, increasing the chances of bullish corrections. The first potential resistance is located at 1.6845 while next support sits at 1.6550; also, the current level is not yet broken decisively and could still provide some sort of support.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index is released Tuesday and Wednesday the Minutes of the latest BOE Meeting are made public. These will contain a breakdown of the members’ votes on the interest rate and details about the reasons which determined the votes. Usually the minutes have a high impact on the Pound if they contain hints about the next interest rate increase.

The last important event for the Pound is the release of the British Retail Sales scheduled Thursday; sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the entire economic activity, hence their high importance. Throughout the week, the pair’s direction will be directly influenced by the US economic releases.
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Old 25-08-2014, 13:07
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EUROPEAN INFLATION TAKES CENTER STAGE AS THE EURO SLIDES LOWER



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar strengthened significantly last week as the FOMC Meeting Minutes showed optimism regarding the labor market and overall economic recovery. European data didn’t bring any positive surprises and this allowed the bears to take the pair lower.


Technical Outlook
The huge drop experienced last week clearly shows that strength and market control belong to the bears. The level at 1.3295 which was previously support was broken and retested successfully during the week and now the first level of importance to the south is located at 1.3200, followed by 1.3100. The downtrend is strong and new lows are a probable scenario but retracements to the upside are anticipated. These possible bullish corrections may find resistance at 1.3295 followed by 1.3330.

Fundamental Outlook
The week begins with an important German survey: the IFO Business Climate. The release is scheduled Monday and has a high importance due to the large sample of 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and to provide an outlook for the next 6 months. The US New Home Sales are released the same day, offering insights into the American housing market which is always regarded as an important matter.

Tuesday the focus remains on the Dollar as the US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years) and the Consumer Confidence survey are released. Wednesday is a slow day in terms of economic news releases but Thursday the most important gauge of German inflation is released: the Consumer Price Index (Preliminary version). Germany’s economy accounts for a major part of the entire Euro Zone economy and its inflation has a hefty impact on the Euro’s performance, making this release a high impact one. The same day the United States will announce the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product which is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and has a strong impact on the currency.

The economic week concludes Friday with the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is expected to move the market strongly because inflation has been sliding lower despite the ECB’s efforts to counter this fact. For the time being, Euro Zone inflation is far away from the ECB target and the lowest in almost 5 years.


GBP/USD
Last week we saw United Kingdom’s inflation slide lower, weakening the Pound while the Dollar strengthened, generating a bearish week. Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes showed that some members of the MPC feel there is need for a rate increase but this only generated a brief strengthening of the Pound.


Technical Outlook
The current bear run is in clear need of a “breather” as price has been traveling south for an extended period of time without any significant retracement. The Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory for the fourth time since the drop begun and this favors a correction to the upside. If this retracement occurs, the first resistance is located at the zone around 1.6700, a place where the pair could resume downwards motion. The support at 1.6550 is the first barrier in front of falling prices, followed by 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a slow week ahead as UK Banks are closed Monday celebrating the Summer Bank Holiday and the only other notable events are the British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals released Tuesday and the Nationwide House Price Index announced Friday. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Old 01-09-2014, 05:59
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FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ALL EYES ON THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE AND AMERICAN NON FARM PAYROLLS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: For almost the entire week, the Euro ranged without strong movement but the last day of the week was the most active as Euro Zone inflation dropped and the single currency weakened significantly.


Technical Outlook
The 14-period Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart shows an oversold condition of the market but the bears still push the pair lower, heading for the next support located at 1.3100. If the pair gets there, we will probably see the selling pressure fade away, mostly because the medium term downtrend needs a bullish pullback. The first resistance is located at 1.3200 and the week’s price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The week’s first day lacks major economic releases as the US banks will be closed in celebration of Labor Day. Tuesday the American Manufacturing PMI is released, offering insights into the opinions of purchasing managers regarding the state of the manufacturing sector. Wednesday the Euro Zone Retail Sales numbers come out but this is considered a medium-impact indicator because the main European countries have already announced their retail sales.

Thursday is one of the most important days of the week ahead as the ECB will announce their interest rate decision and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference that usually generates huge volatility and strong movement. The week’s final market mover is released Friday in the form of the American Non Farm Payrolls which is considered the main gauge of employment in the US and also a leading indicator of consumer spending. Overall we have an important week ahead, for both the US Dollar and the Euro and we are likely to see important market developments.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a very slow week, mostly because no major economic indicators were released by the United Kingdom, but the technical aspect played an important role as the pair reached strong support which slowed the bearish momentum.


Technical Outlook
Last week we saw that bearish movement was hindered by 1.6550 support but the pair didn’t show a proper retracement and the current move may continue upwards. A stronger move to the upside is still expected but for the time being the bulls don’t exhibit enough strength so we might see another dip below 1.6550. The next important support is located at 1.6460 while first major resistance is represented by 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
The Manufacturing PMI will be released Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. All three are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and are considered leading indicators of economic health for their respective sectors.

Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate which is not expected to change but usually volatility is generated by the release and we recommend caution if you will be trading at the time. Friday lacks major new announcements for the Pound but the pair will be heavily influenced by the US Non Farm Payrolls.
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  #12  
Old 15-09-2014, 12:10
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: A HISTORIC WEEK AHEAD – SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE TAKES CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The fundamental scene was slow during the week that just ended and as a result, price action lacked the volatility seen throughout the last period. Also, after 8 bearish weeks, we saw the first victory of the bulls, although it was a minor one.


Technical Outlook
The week ended with price being higher than it opened but the buyers couldn’t make substantial advances and the Relative Strength Index on a Weekly chart is still trading in oversold territory. Last week’s candle shows bullish pressure (long lower wick) and these facts make us believe that we will see a climb into 1.3000 or even 1.3100. To the downside, 1.2750 is a key level which acted as strong support in the past and is likely to stop bearish movement if it will be touched.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is the week’s first notable event. This survey, scheduled Tuesday, shows the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding the current economic situation and a 6-month outlook. The same day, the American Producer Price Index is announced, showing the change in prices charged by producers for their services and goods. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price will be eventually passed on to the consumer.

Wednesday the United States will take center stage as the FOMC will announce the Interest Rate, a Statement will be released and a Press Conference will take place. This cluster of events is likely to generate strong moves and high volatility so caution is recommended.

Thursday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech in Washington DC, via satellite but throughout the day, the world’s eyes will be focused on the Scottish Independence vote which will most likely generate irregular movement. Friday lacks major events and we are likely to have a slow, ranging day.


GBP/USD
Bearish momentum slowed down last week and the bulls finally managed to close the week higher than it begun. Price action was heavily influenced by the polls regarding the Scottish Independence, a matter that will be finally settled this week when the results of the referendum are released.


Technical Outlook
The pair is currently testing the important level at 1.6250. This level acted as both support and resistance in the past and it proved to be well respected by price but the latest gap generated a clear move below it. However, it will be hard for the pair to move past this level for the second time without some sort of rejection, stall or re-test (if broken). A clear move above will make 1.6460 the next bullish target while a bounce lower will open the door for a move into 1.5900 with the first barrier being last week’s low.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event for the Pound will be the Scottish Independence vote scheduled Thursday. If the Scottish people will decide in favor of a separation from the United Kingdom, the Pound will suffer and we are likely to see huge downside movement but no matter the result, volatility will be high and caution is recommended.
Other important events are the British CPI scheduled for release Tuesday, the MPC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday), which will show a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the British Retail Sales scheduled Thursday. Overall, we expect a week with strong movement which will be heavily influenced by the Referendum; as always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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  #13  
Old 22-09-2014, 12:34
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: UNITED KINGDOM’S UNITY REMAINS INTACT



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the US Dollar was strengthened by a hawkish attitude of Fed Chair Yellen while the European Central Bank decided to set the target for their Long Term Refinancing Option (LTRO) at 82.6 Billion Euros, a fact which was perceived as bearish and triggered another selloff.


Technical Outlook
The week belonged to the bears as a new low was printed and the downtrend was resumed. The first level of importance to the downside is located at 1.2750 and it seems this level is the pair’s next destination now that 1.3000 was re-tested from below successfully. However, the Daily Relative Strength Index didn’t move clearly out of oversold territory for a long period and this increases the possibility of bullish moves but the pair is in a clear downtrend and we favor more downside movement overall.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee regarding monetary policy, an event which will be surrounded by volatility and possibly strong movement depending on his attitude and answers.

The French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs will be Tuesday’s main events while Wednesday’s headlines are the German IFO Business Climate and the American New Home Sales. Traders’ attention will then shift to the US Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than three years) which are released Thursday. At the same time the Core version (which excludes from calculation transportation items) is released. Better numbers for any of the versions may strengthen the US Dollar because they suggest future increased economic activity as producers will have to work harder to fill the extra orders.

Friday the United States will release the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product but this tends to have the lowest impact of the three versions (Advance, Preliminary and Final). However, since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge, the market will react to surprising numbers.


GBP/USD
The Scottish people voted “No” last week on a potential separation from the United Kingdom so the 307-year old union will remain intact for now. The result triggered Pound strength and was the week’s main British event.


Technical Outlook
The pair broke 1.6460 and came close to 1.6550 resistance on the back of Pound strength generated by the Scottish vote but soon after, the Dollar erased some of the gains. Overall we had a bullish week but if price will return below 1.6250, we are likely to see a move in close vicinity of 1.6060. To the upside, resistance still sits at 1.6460 followed by 1.6550 as these levels were just pierced and price failed to close above them.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead is characterized by a lackluster fundamental scene, a fact which makes us believe that we will see price slow down a bit, especially now that Scottish turmoil has settled. Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approvals numbers and Thursday the Confederation of British Industry will release a survey regarding Realized Sales. These are medium-impact indicators and we don’t expect them to create strong movement but the pair’s direction will be directly influenced by the US events mentioned earlier.
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  #14  
Old 29-09-2014, 11:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ALL EYES ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK RATE AND AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT DATA



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the US Dollar reached a 21-month high against the Euro, continuing to drag the pair lower on the back of strength generated by speculation that the Fed will move to raise interest rates before other Central Banks do.



Technical Outlook
An important support level was broken last week, showing the clear difference in strength between the Euro and the Dollar. The first support is now located at 1.2660, followed by 1.2280 but the Relative Strength Index on a Weekly chart shows a clear oversold condition and this increases the chance of bullish retracements. Keep in mind that the RSI is not a clear signal to go long as it can stay in oversold territory for a relatively long period and we may easily see another bearish week. To the upside, 1.2750 will probably turn into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
We have an important week ahead, with the first major event being the release of the German Preliminary CPI scheduled Monday. As this is the main gauge of inflation and the German economy is a pillar of the entire Euro Zone, we expect volatility at the time of the release. Euro Zone’s CPI Estimate will be released Tuesday and the same day a survey regarding American Consumer Confidence comes out.

Wednesday’s headline will be the ADP Non Farm Employment Change, a private report which tries to mimic the Government report issued 2 days later. Thursday will be the most important day of the week for the Euro as the ECB will announce the interest rate and Mario Draghi will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision and the economic situation of the Euro Zone. This is almost always a reason for strong and sometimes irregular movement so we recommend caution if trading during the Conference.

The US Dollar will be strongly influenced Friday by the Non Farm Employment report which is considered the most important data regarding the American job market and almost always generates big swings.


GBP/USD
The bears managed to take price lower last week, a behavior mostly generated by US Dollar strength, not by Pound weakness. An important level was touched and we expect some bullish reaction here.


Technical Outlook
During the previous weeks a bullish retracement was completed and it seems now the downtrend will continue. For that to happen, the current level at 1.6250 must be broken decisively; even if last week closed below it, the move cannot be considered a true break because price is still very close to the level and a retest was not seen. To the upside, the first barrier is located at 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook
Three important indexes are released this week by the United Kingdom: the Manufacturing PMI comes out Wednesday, followed Thursday by the Construction PMI and finishing the week Friday with the Services PMI. For these indicators, purchasing managers from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors will be asked to give their opinions on the health of each sector. The surveys act as leading indicator of economic health and usually have a big impact on the Pound. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the important US events mentioned earlier.
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  #15  
Old 06-10-2014, 08:02
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION SLOWS DOWN ON THE BACK OF A QUIET FUNDAMENTAL SCENE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action made it clear that the European economy is in need of further stimulus while employment levels in the United States rose more than anticipated, adding fuel to an already strong US Dollar.


Technical Outlook
The current selloff is one of the longest seen in recent years as price is falling since July without even a slight retracement on the Weekly charts. It is true that some bullish retracements were seen on the daily charts, but nothing significant and this raises questions about where price will stop. The first support ahead is located at 1.2440 and the Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory so we might see some bull power here. However, last week we warned that another bearish week is possible even though the RSI is oversold and the market dropped; the same applies for this week but the fundamental scene lacks huge releases so we might be in for slower price action.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday there are no important American indicators and the Euro will only be affected by a medium-impact release: German Factory Orders. This is a leading indicator of production as more orders placed with manufacturers would suggest that activity will have to increase to fill these orders.

Tuesday we have another slow day in terms of economic releases for both the Euro and the Dollar but Wednesday we expect more action as the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting. The document will offer insights into the reasons which influenced the members’ latest vote regarding interest rates and may also contain hints about a potential rate hike.

Thursday the G20 (Group of 20) meetings start and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Washington DC about the recent European situation. As always, his speeches are reasons for increased volatility and caution is recommended. Friday the G20 meetings will continue but other than that, no major economic or financial releases are scheduled.


GBP/USD
British economy showed signs of slowing down last week as economic data disappointed somewhat and the US Dollar continued to strengthen, resulting in a bearish week and broken support.


Technical Outlook
Now that 1.6060 is broken, the pair is heading towards the important zone around 1.5900 which acted as strong support in the past. For the entire 2014 the pair traded above 1.6000 and the move below this psychological support is an important victory for the bears but we must note the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index which increases the chances of a bullish bounce if price will touch 1.5900. First major resistance sits at 1.6250 while immediate resistance is located at 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook
British Manufacturing Production data will be released Tuesday and the same day a Gross Domestic Product estimate will be announced. Both indicators have the potential to strengthen the Pound if their value will be higher than forecast and vice versa for lower numbers. Thursday the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision but no change is expected from the current 0.50% so we don’t expect a lot of volatility. Thursday and Friday the pair’s movement will be affected by the G20 Meetings.
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  #16  
Old 20-10-2014, 12:31
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE US DOLLAR IS STARTING TO LOSE ITS APPEAL



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was dominated by the bulls on the back of a disappointing value of the US Retail Sales which showed the American economy may be losing steam. The US Dollar suffered the consequences and the pair traveled upwards, breaking resistance.


Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.2750 was broken decisively last Wednesday but price returned for a re-test during the next two days and the week closed near the mentioned level which turned into support. The pair created a weekly high at 1.2886 which will act as resistance in the future but if the current level at 1.2750 is broken to the downside, the next target will be represented by 1.2620. Given the huge distance traveled to the downside by the pair during the last months, we might see a longer retracement to the upside but on the other hand, a downtrend is still in place and we could see a move below 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook
The first notable event of this week is the release of the US Existing Home Sales scheduled Tuesday. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the last month and usually it has a medium impact on the US Dollar. Probably the most important event for the Dollar will be the release Wednesday of the American Consumer Price Index which is a measure of overall inflation. The CORE version, which excludes food and energy from calculation, is released at the same time and this is sometimes considered more important because food and energy can fluctuate a lot, thus distorting the main data.

The French and German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released Thursday; these act as leading indicators of economic health and can have a positive impact on the Euro if better numbers are posted. The last event of the week is the release of the US New Home Sales, scheduled Friday. The indicator usually has a higher impact than the Existing Home Sales but this depends a lot on the difference between forecast and actual.

GBP/USD
British inflation dropped more than anticipated last week and this weakened the Pound severely but soon after, disappointing US Retail Sales data took the pair north on the back of Dollar weakness.


Technical Outlook
Last Tuesday the important support at 1.5900 was touched and price soon bounced higher, moving above 1.6060 resistance so we can notice the bulls are starting to make their presence known. However, because we are in a downtrend, it is very possible to see another attempt to break 1.5900 but as long as the pair remains above 1.6060, we believe there are strong chances of a move close to 1.6250.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England will announce Wednesday the breakdown of the votes on the latest Interest Rate decision. This is a good way of seeing if some of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee have changed their stance regarding a potential rate hike and usually volatility is created only if the forecast doesn’t come true.

Thursday the British Retail Sales are announced and we saw what a tremendous impact this indicator can have on a currency so caution is recommended. The last major Pound affecting event comes Friday: the release of the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is considered the most important version of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final). As always, the pair will be directly affected by the US events scheduled during the week.
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  #17  
Old 27-10-2014, 13:23
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION SHAPED BY EUROPEAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN MONETARY POLICY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was characterized by mostly bearish price action which was generated by technical reasons but also by a better than expected American CPI and speculation that ECB may implement more stimulus to spur economic growth.


Technical Outlook
Last week price started to move in line with the main trend, marking the end of a bullish retracement. The level at 1.2750 was broken to the downside and 1.2620 support was tested but managed to reject the first break attempt seen Thursday. However, this week we expect the downside pressure to prevail and the bears to break the mentioned support, taking price towards 1.2500. To the upside, first resistance is located at 1.2750 followed by the high created at 1.2886.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Banks stress test results made public Sunday will have an important impact on price action throughout the week but aside from that, the pair will be influenced by several other events. Monday the German IFO Business Climate survey, which uses a sample of 7,000 businesses in order to gauge optimism regarding current and future business conditions, will be released.

Tuesday the US Dollar will be affected by the US Durable Goods Orders and the Consumer Confidence survey (which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending). Wednesday will probably be the most active day for the US Dollar as the US Federal Funds Rate is announced and the FOMC will release a statement outlining the economic and financial reasons which stood behind the decision.
Thursday two important indicators come out: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which has a hefty impact on overall European inflation and the US Advance Gross Domestic Product. Friday’s most notable event is the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate which is the main gauge of inflation in the Euro Zone and usually has a strong impact on the currency.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a mixed week as it was affected by a disappointing value of the British Retail Sales but some of the losses were erased Friday on the back of a value of the GDP which matched the forecast and was perceived as bullish.


Technical Outlook
The last weekly candle is a Doji (candle with long upper and lower wicks and a very small body), which suggests market indecision. Our bias is neutral from a technical perspective and we consider the fundamental aspect to be this week’s main price mover. The major levels to watch are 1.6250 as resistance and 1.5900 as support while minor resistance sits at 1.6180 and potential support at 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook
The week ahead lacks major UK releases but the pair will be heavily influenced by the United States events. However, notable British events are the CBI Realized Sales released Monday and the Net Lending to Individuals, announced Wednesday.
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Old 03-11-2014, 11:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: INTEREST RATES AND EMPLOYMENT DATA – INGREDIENTS FOR AN ACTION PACKED WEEK



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The Fed ended their stimulus program last week and although this was anticipated, the event still generated huge US Dollar strength, putting the bears in control of the pair’s direction. An important role in last week’s descent was also played by the disappointing Euro Zone inflation numbers.


Technical Outlook
The pair remains under pressure and we expect the downside to prevail this week as well but we must note the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the immediate support located at 1.2500. These factors could trigger moves to the upside, with 1.2620 being the first resistance. Even if the RSI is trading in oversold territory, it is angled downwards, suggesting that another push lower could be made this week; the next support is located at 1.2280 but a touch of this level will depend on the fundamental events scheduled this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The first notable event of the week is the Monday release of the American Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers which acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. Tuesday the US Trade Balance is released (difference between imported and exported goods) and Wednesday the first US employment data will come out in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change which is a report released by a privately owned company.

The focus will shift towards the Euro Thursday for the Interest Rate decision and the ECB Press Conference. Although no change is expected for the Interest Rate, Mario Draghi’s comments and attitude will surely generate some volatility and strong movement.

The final event of the week is scheduled Friday and it’s the most important American employment data: the US Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). The report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and has a tremendous influence on the greenback as more jobs suggest that consumer spending may increase in the near future.


GBP/USD
The United Kingdom didn’t release major news last week but US Dollar strength generated by the Fed decision to end the QE program took the pair lower after a bounce at resistance.


Technical Outlook
Last week was bearish but the important support at 1.5900 may hinder further downside movement. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index is hovering close to the 30 level on a Weekly chart, a thing which suggests oversold and thus increases the chances of bullish movement. Although there are some bullish signs, if 1.5900 support is broken, the move may extend into 1.5750 which is the next weekly support.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing PMI is Monday’s main event for the Pound, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are leading indicators of economic health for their respective sectors thus higher numbers than anticipated will have a positive impact on the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, with no change anticipated but any speculation about a possible change could greatly affect the pair so caution is recommended. Throughout the week price action will be directly affected by the US releases as well.
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Old 10-11-2014, 05:47
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: OVERSOLD CONDITION CALLS FOR BULLISH MOVEMENT



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The pair just finished another week controlled by the bears on the back of Euro weakness generated by Mario Draghi’s renewed commitment to use additional stimulus measures if the risk of deflation persists. On the other hand, the US Dollar was negatively affected by the NFP release and some of the pair’s losses were erased Friday.


Technical Outlook
During the week the pair broke 1.2500 support but Friday we saw bullish action and the weekly candle now has a long wick which suggests indecision. The Relative Strength Index on a weekly chart is below the 30 level, indicating an oversold condition but it is still pointing downwards and the pair is in a strong downtrend so we expect further bearish action. If the pair will remain below 1.2500, the first potential support is located at 1.2360 followed by 1.2280.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no important economic releases Monday and the same is true for Tuesday when US Banks are closed, celebrating Veterans Day. Euro Zone’s Industrial Production numbers are released Wednesday and Thursday the main event will be the American Unemployment Claims but this is often overlooked by market participants because it is an indicator which is released every week.

Friday a more important indicator is released by the United States: the Retail Sales. The importance of this indicator comes from the fact that sales made at a retail level account for a hefty part of the entire economic activity and a higher value suggests a thriving economy. The same day the Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product is announced, showing the overall performance of the European economy.


GBP/USD
The British economy posted worse than expected numbers overall and the Pound weakened against the US Dollar for another week. Price rebounded higher during the last day of the week on the back of US Dollar


Technical Outlook
The pair is headed towards the support at 1.5750 and we expect a bounce higher once and if price gets there. The Relative Strength Index is just crossing the 30 level downwards on a weekly chart but it has been hovering close to this level for a long while so a touch of support combined with an oversold condition of the indicator will probably push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday is the busiest day for the Pound as the Claimant Count Change is announced and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report released the same day. This Report contains the Bank of England’s economic outlook and inflation forecast for the next 2 years and usually has a high market impact so caution is recommended. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.
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Old 17-11-2014, 12:12
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: OVEREXTENDED PRICES CALL FOR BULLISH RETRACEMENTS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was characterized mainly by indecision and sideways price action and the pair traded inside a horizontal channel for most of the time. A breakout only occurred during the last day of the week, marking the end of the ranging period.


Technical Outlook
Although the pair broke resistance, the main trend is still bearish and we anticipate further downside movement after a bullish retracement is completed. An important area is located around 1.2620 as we have three types of resistance there: diagonal resistance represented by the bearish trend line seen on the chart above, dynamic resistance represented by the 50 day Exponential Moving Average and horizontal resistance represented by the level at 1.2620. If this zone can be broken to the upside, it will be an indication of bull strength and price is likely to travel towards 1.2750; otherwise, 1.2360 will be the week’s target.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on Monetary Policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. This event is likely to generate a strong market response since all Draghi’s public speeches are important but this appearance holds extra importance due to the fact that monetary policy will be discussed. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released Tuesday, showing the level of optimism among German analysts and professional investors and the same day the American Producer Price Index comes out, tracking changes in prices charged by producers.

Wednesday’s main event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes which will contain insights into the reasons that stood behind the latest Fed decision regarding monetary policy and interest rates. Thursday the focus remains on the United States for the announcement of their Consumer Price Index and the economic week finishes Friday with another Mario Draghi speech at the 24th European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt.

GBP/USD
The Pound weakened throughout the week that just ended as the British economy showed signs of slowing down and inflation expectations dropped. Support was broken and the pair printed another low of the year.


Technical Outlook
The downtrend is strong and further bearish price action is expected but the pair is overextended as shown by the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on a Weekly chart. Support sits at 1.5590 but we favor bullish retracements before the downside can prevail. The resistance at 1.5750 is the first bullish target, followed by 1.5900 and the Daily chart shows bullish divergence (price is printing lower lows while the RSI shows higher lows), supporting this upside bias.

Fundamental Outlook
The main gauge of British inflation is released Tuesday: the Consumer Price Index. Inflation is highly correlated with the Pound’s strength and weakness will likely be seen if the CPI value will be lower than anticipated. Another important event is the announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee’s votes on interest rate, scheduled Wednesday. This is a good opportunity to see if some of the members are changing their stance regarding a change of the interest rate and usually volatility is present only if one or more members changed their vote. Thursday the British Retail Sales come out and this is another reason for increased volatility and Pound fluctuation. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Old 24-11-2014, 15:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CONCERNS OF LOW INFLATION WEAKEN THE EURO



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair had mixed up and down movement until the final trading day when Mario Draghi’s speech triggered substantial Euro weakness and a sharp drop. The ECB President commented that inflation expectations reached “excessively low” levels and the market impact was immediately seen.


Technical Outlook
For this week we expect further downside movement generated by Mario Draghi’s comments and by the overall negative sentiment surrounding the Euro. The first lower barrier is located at 1.2360, followed by 1.2280 but the Relative Strength Index is moving below its 30 level. This suggests that bullish retracements can occur but in strong trends the indicator can remain oversold or overbought for a long time without price reversing. If the pair starts to move north, the first resistance is located at 1.2620.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the day is scheduled Monday: the German IFO Business Climate Survey which is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The American Preliminary Gross Domestic Product will be released Tuesday and because this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, better than expected numbers will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

Wednesday we have the American Durable Goods Orders and Thursday US Banks will be closed, celebrating Thanksgiving Day. This will generate irregular volume and mixed volatility thus caution is highly recommended. Friday’s main event will be the European CPI release which is the main gauge of inflation. Considering how strong the Euro moves whenever inflation is discussed, this event will probably have high market impact.


GBP/USD
Although the British economy showed a higher CPI and better than expected Retail Sales, the pair just finished another bearish week. However, the downside momentum is fading away and the US Dollar didn’t make significant advances.


Technical Outlook
Last week ended lower than it begun but the weekly candle shows long wicks on both its upper and lower parts. This is a sign of indecision which combined with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index can trigger upside movement. If this is the case, the first resistance is located at 1.5750; if 1.5590 support can be broken, the door will be open for the next level, located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Governor Mark Carney will speak Tuesday in London, at Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee hearing. This is expected to be an event with high market impact so use caution if trading during the speech. The other important event of the week is scheduled Wednesday in the form of the British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product. Although this version is not as important as the Preliminary, it still has the potential to affect the Pound strongly. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #22  
Old 01-12-2014, 13:45
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE YEAR’S FINAL ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION AND NFP RELEASE



EUR/USD
The week that just ended had a bullish bias after bouncing higher off the support at 1.2360. The last two days of the week were affected by the Thanksgiving Holiday and the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the week.


Technical Outlook
The pair is still in a clear downtrend but several warning signs have appeared: a double bottom (which is a bullish pattern) has been printed at 1.2360 and the Relative Strength Index is constantly making higher lows while price is printing lower lows. This is known as bullish divergence and is an indication that price might be heading north. If this will be the case, an important resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average followed by the horizontal level located at 1.2620. Keep in mind that the bears might still push price lower, considering the current downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s main event is the release of the US Manufacturing PMI which is a survey that tries to gauge the level of optimism among purchasing managers, regarding business conditions. Tuesday is a day without notable economic releases but Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is announced; this is a report put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data that comes out two days later.

The most important day of the week for the Euro will be Thursday, when the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual Press Conference. The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.05%) but the Press Conference almost always generates strong movement, depending on Draghi’s attitude.

Friday the US Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing how many new jobs were created in the United States during the previous month. This is considered the most important job related data and the impact on the US Dollar is almost always strong.


GBP/USD
The first part of last week was controlled by the bulls but the last two days belonged to the bears and all previous gains of the Pound were erased. The pair is again trading close to support, with bearish momentum.


Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is showing bullish divergence as the Relative Strength Index is climbing while price is moving lower. This is a sign that price might be reversing but although divergence is present, the trend can continue after a brief retracement. Immediate support is located at 1.5590 followed by 1.5420 and resistance still sits at 1.5750 which was pierced but the bulls didn’t manage to keep price above the level.

Fundamental Outlook
Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the week: the Manufacturing PMI comes out Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These surveys try to gauge optimism in their respective sectors and act as leading indicators of economic health so higher values usually strengthen the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but a change is not expected, so the impact will probably be limited. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s price action during the week.
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  #23  
Old 08-12-2014, 06:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY THE APPROACHING OF THE WINTER HOLIDAYS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The ECB Press Conference and the American Non Farm Payrolls were last week’s high impact events and each one of them strengthened their respective currency. Mario Draghi mentioned the ECB is not going to add further stimulus at their latest meeting and the US Dollar benefited from improved employment data.


Technical Outlook
The latest economic data favors the greenback and the pair’s bearish impulse is likely to continue throughout the week that has just begun. The support at 1.2280 rejected price the first time it was touched last week but now the bears are trying to break it again; if this attempt doesn’t result in a clear break, the pair is likely to enter a ranging period, considering the fact that the Winter Holidays are approaching and volume might drop. A break of 1.2280 would open the door for a move into the next major support located at 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a light week ahead of us in terms of economic data but here are some of the events with potentially high impact: Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place, followed Tuesday by the ECOFIN meetings (attended by finance ministers from the EU member states). Wednesday no major events are scheduled but Thursday will be the busiest day of the week as the ECB will announce the total value of money they will create and use to provide loans to Eurozone banks. The US Retail Sales are released the same day and this can have a strong market impact as sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of overall economic activity.

Friday the focus remains on the United States for the release of the American Producer Price Index, an indicator which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services, This indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The same day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey; this is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a consumer that is confident in economic and financial conditions is likely to spend more.


GBP/USD
The pair ranged for the most part of last week but US employment numbers which came out much better than anticipated, strengthened the US Dollar and helped the bears to finish the week below support.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken during the last day of last week but before we can consider this a true break and a resumption of the downtrend, we need to see a retest from below of the broken level. If it occurs, this retest will most likely be seen on the lower time frame charts like hourly or four hours. From a daily perspective the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so bearish movement can continue. Bullish retracements may find support at 1.5750 while next support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a slow news week ahead. Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, showing the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and the same day, the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is revealed. Although this is just an estimate, the impact can be a big one, considering that GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #24  
Old 15-12-2014, 15:13
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LAST FULL ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was mostly controlled by the bulls after the bears made another attempt to break 1.2280 support. The single bearish day was Thursday when the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated reading of the US Retail Sales.


Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on an upward path until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a daily chart is touched. We expect some bearish movement to happen there as the moving average will probably offer resistance. A move past this line will make 1.2600 the immediate target for the pair, while a bounce lower will take price back into 1.2360 support. The winter holidays are approaching and volume is likely to drop, making price action irregular and harder to anticipate.

Fundamental Outlook
The French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs are released Tuesday, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business and economic conditions. The same day the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released; the indicator is derived from the opinions of German professional investors and analysts regarding economic health and usually has a high impact on the Euro.
Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the US Dollar as the US Consumer Price Index is released, followed later in the day by the Fed Interest Rate which will be accompanied by a FOMC Statement and a FOMC Press Conference. Almost always this cluster of events creates strong moves so caution is recommended.

The German IFO Business Climate, another report focused on economic conditions, is Thursday’s main event while Friday will be a slow day in terms of economic releases.


GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and the pair had a bullish week following a failed attempt to break support. The week was lackluster in terms of economic releases for the Pound.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was tested several times but the bears failed to break it decisively. This shows that we are dealing with a very strong level which may push price higher for a stronger retracement. However, the resistance at 1.5750 is also strong and it can push price lower, especially considering the fact that we are still in a downtrend. If price moves above resistance without any more tests or bounces, it will probably continue upwards for an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday during a Press Conference focused on the BoE Stability Report released earlier the same day. The conference will be followed by the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and holds a great importance to short and medium term price action.

Wednesday the result of the Monetary Policy Committee votes is made public, showing if the members’ stance regarding the interest rate has changed. The Claimant Count Change is released the same day, showing how many people applied for social help related to unemployment. The last important event of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday and as always, the US events will have a strong and direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #25  
Old 22-12-2014, 15:47
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK IS HERE, BRINGING IRREGULAR VOLATILITY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar headed for gains last week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted that next year a rate hike is likely to happen. Support levels were broken after a bounce off of the daily 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook
Price action is likely to become irregular due to the Christmas Holiday, but the important levels to watch this week are 1.2280 and 1.2360. These levels represented support and the recent break could turn them into resistance if price will climb to touch them again. Price is in a clear downtrend, trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the first major support now sitting at 1.2040 (visible on a weekly chart); however, we don’t believe this level will be touched this week.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected, the week ahead will be governed by the Christmas Holiday and will lack major economic activity. Tuesday is the busiest day of the week, with the focus being on the American Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than three years) and the New Home Sales. Wednesday no major announcements are made while Thursday and Friday most banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Christmas.


GBP/USD
Last week British CPI disappointed while Retail Sales surged and this created mixed price action, with the pair confined between support and resistance.


Technical Outlook
During this month price moved two times below the support at 1.5590 and both times the bulls quickly stepped in, taking the pair above the level. This shows that we are dealing with strong support which may push the pair higher, into the first resistance which is located at 1.5750. On the other hand, a break of 1.5590 followed by a successful re-test will most likely trigger a move towards 1.5420 which is the next support.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approvals which is a leading indicator of demand for the house market and could strengthen the Pound if the value will exceed analysts’ expectations. Other than this, the week is calm and no major indicators are released; Thursday and Friday UK Banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas.
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  #26  
Old 29-12-2014, 12:19
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE WEEK BETWEEN YEARS COMES WITH LOW VOLUME AND SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week price action was heavily influenced by the Christmas Holiday and the market was paused during the 25th of December. All week price suffered from low volume and irregular movement.


Technical Outlook
The irregular price action seen last week is likely to continue this week as the New Year will be the main concern of most traders around the world. The pair is in a downtrend, trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.2280. The first support is located at 1.2040 but probably we won’t see a break this week as the market will be thin for most of the period. Our bias is neutral considering that this week the year changes and all pairs will be affected.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected we have very few economic releases this week; here are the most important: Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinion of about 5,000 American households about current economic conditions, but also their expectations for the near future.

Wednesday German Banks will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Eve and the US Unemployment Claims will be the day’s single notable event. Thursday is the first day of 2015 and the market will be closed, price will come to a stop and no economic indicators will be released, while Friday is another slow day with the only important event being the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.


GBP/USD
Last week was mostly controlled by the bears on the back of disappointing British economic data but soon Christmas made its presence known, volume dropped and the pair came to a stop Thursday, while Friday’s trading session lacked strong movement.


Technical Outlook
Some movement is likely to be seen throughout the week but we don’t expect any substantial advances as the New Year will take center stage and volume will probably remain low. The important levels to watch this week are located at 1.5590 (resistance) 1.5485 (support), while price behavior at the current level (1.5540) will probably determine the next direction. Our bias is neutral for this pair as well, and we expect to see irregular movement; keep in mind that Thursday the market will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook
The only noteworthy British release is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled Friday. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers focused on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
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  #27  
Old 05-01-2015, 13:15
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE DOLLAR REACHES NEW HIGHS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the Euro weakened the most in more than 4 years against the US Dollar; a big role in the drop was played by the fact that the ECB talked about large scale bond purchases and ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that he cannot rule our deflation.


Technical Outlook
We saw another bearish week as the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart moved below the 30 level and this shows an overextended condition, signaling that a retracement is likely to occur. The same condition is shown by the Stochastic indicator (11,6,6) which is moving well below the 20 level. First support is located at 1.1875 (better seen on a Weekly chart) but during the week we expect pullbacks above 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Preliminary CPI is released Monday, showing the state of German inflation which is an important part of European inflation. This will be followed Wednesday by the European CPI Flash Estimate which offers an early look into European inflation; since the ECB is struggling to raise inflation levels, these releases will have a high impact on the Euro. A privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing) will release the same day the Non Farm Employment Change which is a report that tries to mimic the Government data released 2 days later. Later the same day the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about Fed’s latest meeting.

Friday the most important U.S. jobs related data comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and almost always the impact on the Dollar is huge as more jobs are indicative of increased consumer spending in the near future.

GBP/USD
The pair moved substantially lower last week as the British economy showed clear signs of contraction, but also because market participants speculate about a potential U.S. rate increase early in the year.


Technical Outlook
Last week the pair experienced a huge drop and such a move is likely to trigger some sort of bullish reaction in the form of a retracement. This retracement can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.5420 but the first lower target is located at 1.5260 which acted as strong support in the past (better seen on a Weekly chart).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction and Services PMIs are released Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Thursday by the Official Bank Rate. Lately a lot of speculation is surrounding the British interest rate and although a change is not expected, the event is likely to generate strong movement. The last Pound-affecting event of the week is Friday’s Manufacturing Production release which shows the total value of output produced by the British manufacturing sector.
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  #28  
Old 12-01-2015, 12:21
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARS STILL IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE INCREASES



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears on the back of lower inflation numbers posted by the European economy and a hawkish Fed that hinted towards a potential rate hike during the first part of the year.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved below 1.1875, creating the fourth consecutive bearish week. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on a Daily chart and are starting to move upwards, while on a Weekly chart there is still no sign of bullish movement of the two indicators. The most important levels for this week’s price action are 1.1875 and 1.2040 to the upside and the low at 1.1750 followed by 1.1640 to the downside; the picture remains bearish, although retracements are still due.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday and Tuesday are calm days for the Euro and US Dollar as no major indicators are released. Wednesday the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out and the Dollar is likely to be strongly affected as the indicator is the main gauge of consumer spending which in turn is a vital part of the economy.

Thursday the American Producer Price Index is released; this indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications. The same day the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out; this is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district. Friday’s main event is the release of the American Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a hefty impact on the Dollar. The same day, the University of Michigan will release a Preliminary version of their Consumer Sentiment survey.


GBP/USD
The pair remained in a strong downtrend as price moved below support and the bears maintained their control for the fourth week in a row. The British economy posted worse than expected numbers and this contributed to the drop.


Technical Outlook
During the week ahead we expect a move into the recently broken level at 1.5260. A bounce there would make 1.5035 the immediate target, followed by the psychological and technical support at 1.5000. A break of 1.5260 would open the door for a bullish retracement close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
This week lacks major British announcements and the only important indicator comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. data released throughout the week.
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  #29  
Old 12-01-2015, 17:51
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

thanks bro
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  #30  
Old 19-01-2015, 13:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB TO DECIDE THE NEXT DIRECTION OF THE SHARED CURRENCY


EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the markets were shaken by Swiss National Bank’s sudden and unexpected decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor which caped the pair at 1.20. As a result the Swiss Franc appreciated tremendously against its peers and the market showed unprecedented volatility.




Technical Outlook
On Daily and Weekly charts, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are indicating an oversold condition of the pair, but considering the latest developments, the technical side is less important than the fundamental. The next potential support is located at 1.1380 but the pair last visited this level in 2003 so the importance of this level cannot be assessed. As for resistance, the first level of interest is 1.1640, followed by 1.1875. The environment remains strongly bearish, with retracements expected.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday U.S. Banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no major indicators are scheduled. Tuesday’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors regarding their 6-month economic outlook.
Wednesday is a slow day as far as U.S. and European economic releases are concerned but Thursday will probably be the week’s most volatile day due to the ECB Meeting. The interest rate decision will be announced and more importantly, the ECB will announce whether they will start a government-bond buying program or not. The market already expects the ECB to introduce such a stimulus and if this proves wrong, the reaction will be mixed.
Friday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, offering insights into the state of the manufacturing sectors in these countries.

GBP/USD
The Pound – US Dollar pair wasn’t affected strongly by Swiss National Bank’s decision and for the entire week, price action was mixed, without a lot of directional movement.


Technical Outlook
The pair is caped to the upside by 1.5260 resistance and to the downside by 1.5035 support. This week we expect a breakout which could take price into the next support located at 1.4830 or into the resistance offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are hovering near their oversold levels, a fact which could help the bulls if they attempt to break resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday the British Claimant Count Change is released, showing how many people applied for unemployment related welfare. A higher number indicates increased levels of unemployment and is usually detrimental for the currency. The same day the votes on the latest BoE interest rate decision are made public but this event usually creates strong movement only if one or more MPC members have changed their stances regarding the need for a rate adjustment. The final British event of the week is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled Friday. Since sales made at a retail level represent a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers are viewed as beneficial for the currency.
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  #31  
Old 19-01-2015, 16:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Quote:
Originally Posted by painofhell View Post
thanks bro
You're most welcome. =)
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  #32  
Old 26-01-2015, 12:57
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED. FURTHER DOWNSIDE ACTION EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the euro suffered great losses against most of its peers as the ECB decided the economy is in need of more stimulus than originally anticipated. The amount they settled on is 60 billion euro/month until the end of 2016.


Technical Outlook
Without a doubt last week was controlled by the bears and this week we expect to see further downside movement. The low at 1.1114 will offer the first potential support while potential resistance sits at 1.1450; both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic show a severe oversold condition on a daily chart and this makes way for some bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook
A German Business Climate survey is released Monday, showing the level of optimism among business owners, regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Tuesday the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are announced, followed later in the day by a Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the greenback as the Fed will announce the interest rate and a FOMC Statement is released, outlining the reasons which influenced the rate decision; it also can contain hints about future monetary policy.

German inflation data comes out Thursday as the Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released. In light of recent events, we might see some changes in inflation numbers and this will translate into strong market moves. Friday the Euro Zone CPI comes out, offering a view on inflation in the entire Euro area. The last event of the week comes out the same day in the form of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product which as we know is an economy’s main gauge of performance and can have a hefty impact on the currency.


GBP/USD
The pair finally broke the horizontal channel inside which it was confined lately as the dollar extended its gains against the British Pound. The break was partly generated by MPC members’ change of stance regarding the interest rate – this time all members voted to keep rates unchanged.


Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.5035 can be sustained by the bears, we consider the next destination to be the support at 1.4830; otherwise the bulls will probably take price into the resistance at 1.5260. If this resistance will be touched, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will contribute to the strength of the level because by the time price climbs, the MA will probably descend in close vicinity of 1.5260, creating a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will announce Monday the number of new Mortgage Approvals, offering insights into the British house market. Tuesday the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and Friday the Net Lending to Individuals is announced, showing the change in the value of loans issued to consumers. The indicator offers hints about future consumer spending and consumer confidence.
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  #33  
Old 02-02-2015, 12:00
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FATE OF THE DOWNTREND DECIDED BY AMERICAN JOBS DATA



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was the first bullish one in a long time. The Fed mentioned patience regarding a potential rate hike and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product disappointed, thus the appeal of the U.S. Dollar somewhat diminished last week.


Technical Outlook
The downtrend is still intact but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) are starting to move upwards, after a long period they’ve spent in oversold area. This suggests that we might see another bullish week with the first target located at 1. 1450 (1.1460), followed by 1.1640. As mentioned before, the downtrend is still intact (although overextended) and this means that another encounter with 1.1100 support zone is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
American manufacturing data is released Monday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI which acts as a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. Tuesday is a slow day for economic releases and Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change comes out, offering hints about the Government-issued data which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday the U.S. Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between the value of imported and exported goods; a negative number means that more goods were imported than exported and this can have a negative impact on the greenback but often this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The week’s most important data comes out Friday: the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change. This is widely considered the most important jobs related indicator and shows how many new jobs were created in the analyzed month. A higher number of jobs suggests a thriving economy and indicates that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound – Dollar pair continued to move in a range last week and although price closed lower than it opened, neither bulls nor bears made significant advances.


Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.5260 resistance and 1.4950 support but price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a downtrend is still in place, although it’s currently stalling. A break of support would make 1.4830 the immediate target and to the upside 1.5260 combined with the 50 period EMA will offer strong resistance; however, the pair’s direction will be strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data scheduled for release this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs come out Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector and usually act as leading indicators of economic health so better values are beneficial for the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event will probably have a small impact. The pair will be directly and strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data.
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  #34  
Old 09-02-2015, 12:42
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESISTANCE TESTED. BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.


Technical Outlook
All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD
The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.


Technical Outlook
The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Old 16-02-2015, 12:36
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS THE END OF SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT?



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the economic data which came out of the United States was disappointing and this allowed the Euro to climb against the US Dollar but the week had only one day when the pair moved strongly and overall price action was slow.


Technical Outlook
Price is still confined in a tight range created by 1.1300 support and 1.1500 resistance. Considering the fact that last week only one day had decent movement and price was mostly flat, we expect a clean break-out this week but the direction will depend mostly on the fundamental aspect. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average is still angled downwards and price is trading below it but this doesn’t exclude a bullish breakout so for the week ahead keep an eye on 1.1500. A break of this level will probably generate an extended move into 1.1640 while a break of 1.1300 will make 1.1100 the next weekly target.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place and US banks will be closed, celebrating Presidents’ Day so there are increased chances of irregular volatility. Tuesday the main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, focused on a 6 month outlook regarding German economic growth.

Wednesday is an important day for the US Dollar as the FOMC Meeting Minutes come out, offering insights into Fed’s latest meeting and possibly hints about future monetary policy direction. Thursday economic releases are scarce, with U.S. Manufacturing data being the only notable indicator, while Friday, France and Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMIs which act as leading indicators of economic health.


GBP/USD
The Bank of England increased economic growth forecasts and this coupled with weak U.S. data generated a rally above resistance. However, for the better part of the week price ranged.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved above 1.5260 resistance and above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average, making the medium-term outlook bullish. We anticipate a climb into 1.5550 resistance zone but a break of this level is less likely considering that the pair is in a clear downtrend. If during the week the Relative Strength Index will reach overbought levels, the chances of bearish moves will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
British inflation data comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change which will show how many people applied for unemployment related social help. The same day the Official Bank Rate votes come out, showing if some of the MPC members changed their stance on the interest rate value. The final British release of the week comes Friday in the form of the Retail Sales; the indicator shows the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets and is considered a high impact release.
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Old 24-02-2015, 00:48
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION DRIVEN BY THE TESTIMONIES OF HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week Greece and the Eurogroup finally found a solution to the debt problem, although it seems to be just a short term fix. Surprisingly enough, the market did not react strongly to the news and the pair didn’t manage to break its range.


Technical Outlook
Monday more discussions related to the Greek debt issue are expected so the market can still become volatile and we recommend caution. The horizontal channel created between 1.1500 and 1.1300 is still the most important technical pattern for short term price action and a breakout is imminent; once this happens, the pair can find support at 1.1100 or resistance at 1.1640. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average will also offer some resistance but considering price’s latest behaviour, if we see a breakout, this could easily move past the EMA. Our view at the moment is neutral anticipating a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s important event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate which in a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions. Its large sample is what makes it important and usually triggers a strong impact. Tuesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This is part of a 2-day testimony which will continue Wednesday.

ECB President Mario Draghi will also testify Wednesday before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. Both the testimonies of Yellen and Draghi are considered high-impact events and strong volatility is expected. Thursday the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released, showing fluctuations in inflation and at the same time we will find out the Durable Goods Orders change.

Friday two more important indicators are released: the German CPI and the U.S. Prelim Gross Domestic Product. The former shows the state of German inflation, while the latter is considered the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, thus strong movement is likely to be generated.


GBP/USD
The pair remained above its 50 day Exponential Moving Average but no major advances were made. The strongest moves occurred when British employment data came out better than anticipated but the rest of the week was rather slow.


Technical Outlook
We expect the current move to continue until the zone around 1.1550 is reached, but the bulls seem to lack strength and the Stochastic oscillator has already touched its 80 level, indicating overbought. This could mean that if price crosses the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside, it could easily go through the support located around 1.5260, opening the door for an extended move towards 1.4950.Although price action was bullish last week, we favour the downside, especially if 1.5550 is touched and the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought, agreeing with the Stochastic.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approvals Wednesday. The indicator offers insights into the British house market but its impact fluctuates depending on the difference between the anticipated number and the actual one. The Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released Thursday showing the anticipated value of the British GDP; although this is an estimated number, the accuracy is usually high and so is the impact on the Pound. Of course, the U. S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Old 02-03-2015, 13:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARS TRY TO RESUME DOWNTREND; OUTCOME DEPENDS ON U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND ECB PRESS CONFERENCE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week we witnessed a long anticipated breakout which took the pair below the support zone created around 1.1270 – 1.1300. The week was filled with testimonies of heads of central banks but Fed Chair Yellen’s speech had the highest impact as it reignited speculation about a rate hike.


Technical Outlook
The consolidation pattern above 1.1270 and below 1.1500 seems to be broken to the downside, a fact which signals a potential resumption of the downtrend. The first bearish target of the week is located at 1.1100 but a move above 1.1270 – 1.1300 would imply the consolidation period is not over and will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a likely bullish target for the week.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event Monday will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index which will offer insights into the state of European inflation which has been a major concern of the ECB for quite a long while. Tuesday the Spanish unemployment numbers are released, while Wednesday we will see the first American jobs related data of the week in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change.

Thursday is a crucial day for the euro as the ECB will announce the interest rate (no change anticipated) and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference which is known to be a huge market mover almost always. Friday the US Dollar will be in the spotlight as the Non Farm Employment Change is released; this is considered the most important jobs related indicator for the U.S. economy as it shows the number of new jobs created during the previous month. Employment levels are tightly correlated with consumer spending and each release has a high impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD
Last week we saw a bullish move which took the pair into resistance but soon after, price bounced lower and this could mean the short term uptrend is over.


Technical Outlook
The latest moves up seem exhausted and the downtrend is ready to resume. Last week the resistance at 1.5550 was tested twice but the bulls failed to take price above this level, a fact which shows lack of strength for the bulls and makes us believe that the next move will find support at 1.5260. Before that can happen, price must move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if this form of support is not surpassed soon, we will most likely see another encounter with 1.5550.

Fundamental Outlook
The first three days of the week are characterized by the release of British Purchasing Managers’ Indexes: Monday we have the Manufacturing PMI, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic health focused on their respective sectors and usually values that exceed expectations are beneficial for the Pound. The last important British event of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the interest rate but since no change is anticipated, the event might go mostly unnoticed unless surprises occur. As always the U.S. events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.
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Old 09-03-2015, 12:43
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff.


Technical Outlook
Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.

Fundamental Outlook
Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report.


Technical Outlook
The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors.
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Old 16-03-2015, 12:03
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. DOLLAR AT HISTORICAL HIGHS – FED INTEREST RATE TAKES CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The pair continued to drop throughout last week and so far, there is no real sign of downtrend weakness. The bulls managed to take price higher during one day only but the gains were quickly erased.


Technical Outlook
Profit taking might take price higher this week but the bears are the strongest they have been in many years so we anticipate further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. The current level at 1.0500 could not be clearly broken last week but price is likely to surpass it early this week. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold and this might generate retracements that will most likely find resistance on the lower time-frame charts.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at a finance summit and this could be a reason for sharp moves but the extent of the impact is not fully known, depending on the topics he will discuss.

Tuesday’s main releases are the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and the U.S. Building Permits but Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar, as the Fed Meetings will take center stage. The interest rate is announced (no change anticipated yet), a press conference is held and the FOMC will release Economic Projections and a Statement. This cluster of events is likely to have a strong impact on the greenback, especially because speculation about a rate hike in June is increasing.

Thursday the ECB will announce their targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) and the European Union Economic Summit will begin. Friday no major indicators are scheduled for release.

GBP/USD
The pair printed a new multi-year low last week, the downtrend is renewed and important support was broken. It was another week when the bears were in complete control and price traveled sharply south.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.4830 was an important barrier and now that it is broken, we expect further downside movement. However, over the last two weeks price traveled very fast and this type of movement is likely to be followed by a consolidation period. We expect a pullback into 1.4830, which is likely to become resistance but a move above it is not out of the question. The overall bias remains strongly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday is the most important day of the week for the Pound: the Bank of England will make public the latest interest rate votes and the Claimant Count Change is released, showing fluctuations in the number of people who ask for unemployment related benefits. The same day the British Annual Budget is released, showing financial objectives but also levels of spending and income for the government. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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Old 23-03-2015, 14:02
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DOWNTREND WAVERS. DOLLAR STILL HAS STEAM LEFT.



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The Dollar lost its appeal last week as the Fed showed concern about American inflation, postponing a potential rate hike. As a result, the entire week was controlled by the bulls and the pair bounced at support.


Technical Outlook
The bullish move which began last week is likely to continue until 1.1000 – 1.1100 zone is reached again. If this new encounter with resistance will coincide with an overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, we expect bearish pressure to increase and price to start downside motion again. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be in close vicinity, it will create a confluence zone which will be hard to break. To the downside, first support is located at 1.0640 followed by the zone around 1.0500.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on monetary policy. As always, his public appearances are a reason for increased volatility and should be treated with caution. Tuesday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about the state of the manufacturing sector. Lately these surveys have a mild impact on the market but readings that differ a lot from analysts’ consensus might create strong movement.

A more important indicator is released the same day: the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This is one of the most important gauges of inflation and might affect strongly the greenback’s next move. Wednesday we have the German IFO Business climate and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, again two indicators which lost some of their ability to move the market strongly but still, better numbers will strengthen the respective currency.

Thursday lacks major news releases and Friday the U.S. final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released, followed later in the day by a speech delivered by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.


GBP/USD
Although it was a choppy week, price finished it higher, on the back of U.S. Dollar weakness. Also profit taking by traders who were short on the pair, helped the pair in its weekly climb.


Technical Outlook
Although we had a bullish week, this doesn’t mean the downtrend is over and this week we expect the pair to descend into the zone located near 1.4640. Keep in mind that both oscillators are moving out of oversold territory at this suggests that we may see further upside movement. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.5000 followed by the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Two important British events make this week’s headlines: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index is released, offering information about U.K. inflation and Thursday the Retail Sales numbers come out. The retail sector is one of the most important for an economy and that’s the reason why higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
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