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  #1  
Old 23-06-2014, 12:37
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING AND US HOUSE-MARKET DATA AHEAD


EUR/USD
Forex News: The main trend Friday was bearish, partially generated by a light overbought state of the market. There were no important economic releases and price action was relatively smooth.


Technical Outlook
Price failed to finish the trading day below 1.3585 and the bulls have been showing some pressure lately, stopping the bearish momentum at 1.3520. However, neither bulls nor bears are in clear control and today’s direction will be determined by price behavior around the current level of interest (1.3585). A bearish break will make 1.3520 the next target while a bounce higher will most likely take the pair back into 1.3640 resistance zone.

Fundamental Outlook
At 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced but no change is expected from the previous value of 49.6; half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to change from 52.3 to 52.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The United States will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Existing Home Sales numbers which are expected to increase from 4.65M to 4.74M. The indicator has a slightly greater importance than the New Home Sales (will be released a day after) because existing homes represent the majority of total sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
Friday the pair retraced lower, a normal behavior, considering the extended move upwards and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index; however, the bears didn’t manage to break important levels.


Technical Outlook
The move south seen Friday is considered just a retracement, not a reversal; a good place for price to start moving upwards again is 1.6996 which was previous resistance and now may become support. A bearish break of the mentioned level would indicate that high prices become harder and harder for bulls to sustain and would weaken the current uptrend, making 1.6920 the next medium-term destination. Resistance now sits at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic indicators today and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US data mentioned above.


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  #2  
Old 24-06-2014, 11:24
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: SIGNIFICANT FUNDAMENTAL DATA SETS THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE DAY


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued its slow and ranging movement, trading slightly lower on the back of disappointing European Manufacturing data and a slightly better value of the US Existing Home Sales.


Technical Outlook
Support and resistance levels are still holding and the pair becomes less volatile as days go by; the first event that may generate strong movement is the break of the triangle pattern seen on the chart above. If the support located at 1.3585 is holding and rejects price higher, we are likely to also see a bullish break of the triangle but for the time being, the lower part of the triangle creates a confluence zone with 1.3585 horizontal support so the bears will have a tough time breaking it.

Fundamental Outlook
An important German survey is released today at 8:00 am GMT: the IFO Business Climate. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 110.3, an almost insignificant change from last month’s 110.4 and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released; this survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic health at the same time, hence higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar. The forecast is an increase to 83.6 from 83.0.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar strengthened once positive economic data was released and as a result, the bears managed to nullify the gains obtained by the Pound previously during the day. Neither support nor resistance was broken and overall we had an uneventful day.


Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.7063 resistance and 1.6996 support and until either one is broken, our bias is neutral. The Pound is on a clear uptrend but perhaps a stronger retracement lower is needed before we can see a break of 1.7063. Mark Carney’s public speech will most likely have a high impact on price direction and will possibly determine a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place in London. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and other members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on inflation and economic outlook. Their comments will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and caution is recommended if trading at the time. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair’s movement.


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  #3  
Old 25-06-2014, 12:44
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: EURO CONFINED IN A RANGE, POUND WEAKENED BY DOVISH COMMENTS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had another difficult to trade day as price first climbed and then dropped below the opening price on the back of better than expected US economic data. Currently the support at 1.3585 is being re-tested from above but the pair is in a ranging state.



Technical Outlook
Price action continues to trade sideways and all moves in one direction are quickly reversed. The current level of 1.3585 is important for short term movement and a break would open the door for additional sellers to enter the market and to take the pair into the more important support located at 1.3520. Minor resistance sits at 1.3640 – 1.3645 but the market is ranging and we are neutral until an important level is breached.

Fundamental Outlook
Two important US events represent today’s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are announced with a negative change anticipated, from the previous 0.6% to -0.1%. At the same time the Final version of the Gross Domestic is released and although its impact is lower than the Advance GDP, volatility can still be generated as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. The expected change is -1.7%while the previous was -1.0%. Lower numbers for either indicator can determine a weakening of the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened throughout the day against the US Dollar as Mark Carney showed a dovish attitude towards a potential rate hike and dampened any speculation that BOE will raise rates sooner than anticipated.


Technical Outlook
The potential support level at 1.6996 was easily broken yesterday on the back of Pound weakness generated by Carney’s comments and now it seems like the pair is headed for 1.6920 support. Before that happens, a re-test of 1.6996 is very probable. If this re-test is successful and price bounces lower, the chances of a reversal will increase and resistance will be located at 1.6996 once again. Throughout the day keep an eye for an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical side and by the US events mentioned above.


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  #4  
Old 26-06-2014, 12:35
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Thursday

FOREX NEWS: CARNEY’S SPEECH – DOVISH OR HAWKISH?



EUR/USD
Forex News: The American currency weakened yesterday against its counterparts as disappointing values were posted for both the Durable Goods Orders and the Gross Domestic Product. As a result the pair touched resistance at 1.3640 and the day was controlled by the bulls.


Technical Outlook
The pair continues to move extremely slowly compared to its normal behavior and although yesterday the bulls showed clear signs of dominance, future direction is uncertain. The current level of resistance may push price lower or it may bring in more buyers if a break is recorded, so today’s price action revolves around a “bounce or break” scenario. Next resistance is located at 1.3680 while support sits at the uptrend line, followed by 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook
Today lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar and the pair’s direction will be mostly affected by technical factors.


GBP/USD
US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well and the pair made a push for 1.6996. However, the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break resistance and price remained below it.


Technical Outlook
At the moment we are seeing rejection at 1.6996 (1.7000) resistance and it seems like the bulls failed to renew the uptrend. This suggests that moves lower may follow and that 1.6920 support might be the next destination. A climb above 1.7000 will invalidate this scenario but Mark Carney’s speech will be the day’s headline and will probably have a strong impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report which contains an assessment of potential risks to the current financial system and an in-depth analysis regarding financial stability in the UK. At the same time, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and will deliver a speech focused on the mentioned Report. His attitude will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and will be the day’s main market mover.


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  #5  
Old 27-06-2014, 11:39
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Friday

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION NUMBERS MAY PUT AN END TO RANGING MOVEMENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday against its major counterparts and the Euro was no exception; after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance, price moved south to touch 1.3585 support but finished the day above it.


Technical Outlook
The pair is still ranging, without choosing a direction and this gives greater importance to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and to the support located at 1.3585. We anticipate a bounce higher and a move back above the uptrend line but today’s important financial data will be the determining factor.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the German Consumer Price Index which is released at 12:00 pm GMT and anticipated to change from the previous -0.1% to 0.2%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro as German inflation accounts for a big part of European inflation.


GBP/USD
Mark Carney’s speech regarding the Financial Stability Report was perceived as hawkish by market participants and the pair climbed yesterday above 1.7000.


Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair looks like it’s making an attempt to touch 1.7063 once again. The Pound was strengthened by more speculation about a rate hike which may come before the end of the year and the greenback is weakened by a worse than expected GDP so things look bullish and we anticipate a touch of the mentioned level. First support is located at 1.6996 (1.7000), followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. Although the Final version is the last and tends to have a milder impact on price action compared to the Advance version, we can still expect sharp moves at the time of the release, especially if the actual figure will differ from analysts’ prediction of 0.8%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


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  #6  
Old 30-06-2014, 13:18
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Monday

FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN



EUR/USD
Forex News: The bulls controlled most of Friday’s trading session on the back of a slightly better than anticipated value of the German Consumer Price Index. However, the pair is still trading in a range and resistance is not clearly broken.


Technical Outlook
Last week’s price action increases dramatically the chances of a breakout which will most likely occur this week, but the direction is hard to predict. Price just bounced between 1.3585 support and 1.3640 resistance and neither bulls nor bears made clear attempts to take control of direction. The encounter with resistance seen Friday may generate a bounce lower and a potential break of the uptrend line but if the pair continues upwards, it will encounter strong resistance at 1.3675.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to increase from 0.5% to 0.6%. If this comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), the Euro will most likely strengthen against the US Dollar and we will have a bullish day.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced, showing the change in the number of houses which still await the closing transaction. The forecast is for an increase from 0.4% to 1.4%, a fact which would be considered beneficial for the greenback.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product came out Friday with the anticipated value of 0.8%, a fact which generated mixed price action and overall a ranging day.\


Technical Outlook
Resistance sits at 1.7063 but the bulls seem to lack the needed power to break it and to renew the uptrend. For today’s price action we expect more ranging movement, with price confined between the support at 1.6996 (1.7000) and the resistance just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major indicator releases today and the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by American data and by the technical aspect.



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  #7  
Old 04-07-2014, 16:05
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: INDEPENDENCE DAY AFFECTS THE US DOLLAR. IRREGULAR TRADING EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex News: ECB President Mario Draghi indicated during yesterday’s Press Conference that interest rates will remain low, a fact which weakened the Euro. On the other hand, the US Dollar strengthened once the Non Farm Payrolls showed much better numbers than analysts’ forecast and these two factors generated a bear-controlled day.


Technical Outlook
The confluence zone created by the bullish trend line and the level of 1.3640 was broken decisively yesterday, a fact which would normally generate an extended move down. However, lately the pair is moving in a very difficult to predict fashion and lacks volatility, except for some isolated bursts. If the support at 1.3585 will be broken, the next logical target is 1.3520 but if this support is not broken today, we might see another move up which will encounter resistance at the recently broken trend line.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s only noteworthy release is the German Factory Orders, scheduled at 6:00 am GMT and expected to drop significantly from 3.1% to -0.8%, a fact which would further weaken the Euro. The United States celebrate Independence Day and no economic indicators will be released. Also, American banks are closed and this might translate into irregular volatility.


GBP/USD
The Pound suffered from a lower than anticipated value of the Services PMI and the greenback strengthened on the back of positive employment data; as a result, the anticipated bearish retracement occurred and the pair touched support.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s touch of 1.7095 support resulted in a bounce higher so we expect to see a move that will test the recent high formed at 1.7176. The last bearish move cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, a fact which sets the stage for further bullish moves; however, we must wait and see if the Dollar strength generated by the NFP will continue throughout today and if this is the case, price will most likely touch 1.7095 once again.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data today and we expect a slow trading session, considering also the fact that US banks are closed.
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  #8  
Old 07-07-2014, 12:41
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: OPENING THE WEEK WITH RANGING PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the bears continued to take price lower and touched support at 1.3585 but the day lacked volatility, mostly due to the fact that the United States celebrated Independence Day and US banks were closed.


Technical Outlook
Today we are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario and the support at 1.3585 plays the main role. A bearish break would set the stage for a touch of the more important support located at 1.3520 but if sellers cannot maintain the momentum seen last week, we are likely to see a move back up into the zone around 1.3640. The Relative Strength Index is moving close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and slightly increases the chances of a bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic releases and the only notable indicator is the German Industrial Production scheduled at 6:00 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in industrial output but it is considered to have low impact on the Euro; however, higher numbers than the anticipated 0.3% usually strengthen the single currency.


GBP/USD
The Pair had a ranging day Friday but the bulls managed to surpass the previous high by a few pips before price started to move south. No major developments took place and Independence Day generated low trading volume.


Technical Outlook
We consider there’s a high chance of another encounter today with the high located at 1.7180 but a real break is less likely to occur. To the down side, the first major support is located at 1.7095 but such a distance is too much to travel on a Monday that lacks major fundamental announcements. We anticipate a ranging day, with slow price action.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.
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  #9  
Old 08-07-2014, 15:56
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON GERMAN TRADE BALANCE AND UK’S MANUFACTURING NUMBERS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair traded in a 30 pip range yesterday as no major economic releases affected price movement and we saw a small bounce off support. Germany’s Industrial Production came out worse than anticipated but the event didn’t have a strong impact.


Technical Outlook
According to the ranging behavior exhibited lately by the pair, the next possible move is a bounce higher off 1.3585 support, considering also the fact that the Relative Strength Index is moving upwards after a brief encounter with its 30 level; if this bounce occurs, the resistance at 1.3640 will be the next target but a break of support will make 1.3520 the immediate bearish destination.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Trade Balance comes out today at 6:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from the previous 17.7B to 15.7B. The indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a positive numbers means that more goods were exported than imported, a fact which usually strengthens the Euro.


GBP/USD
Overall the Pound had a bearish day but support wasn’t touched and price didn’t make any spectacular moves. Trading lacked major reversals or whipsaws.


Technical Outlook
We consider that the pair’s first target is the support located at 1.7095 and once this retracement lower is completed, we expect the bullish trend to resume for another attempt to break 1.7180 resistance. A break of 1.7095 would encounter potential support at 1.7063 but today’s price action will most likely be decided by economic factors.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 8:30 am GMT the UK Manufacturing Production is released. This indicator shows the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and represents about 80% of the entire UK Industrial Production; higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and thus, a stronger Pound. The anticipated change is 0.5%, compared with last month’s 0.4%.
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  #10  
Old 09-07-2014, 13:03
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL WEAK AGAINST ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOMC MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT



EUR/USD
Forex News: Price moved north yesterday after bouncing for a second time off of 1.3585 support and the Euro bulls proved they are not yet ready to admit defeat. The rise was partly generated by a surprisingly better value of the German Trade Balance.


Technical Outlook
Latest price action indicates that the next destination of the pair is the resistance located at 1.3640 as price tried on two separate occasions to break 1.3585 but failed. However, if the bears manage to tip the scales in their favor by breaking 1.3585, the pair’s next target will become 1.3520 support. Our bias is mainly neutral on the pair as the daily range is about 30 pips and price movement is extremely slow.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will offer insights into the reasons that stood behind the FOMC members’ vote regarding the US interest rate and will probably give some hints about future monetary direction. Usually this event creates strong movement so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

At 7:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech in London at the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Memorial Lecture. Although the speech is not directly related to ECB’ monetary policy, Draghi’s public appearances can always influence the Euro strongly and caution is recommended as well.


GBP/USD
The Pound lost ground against the US Dollar during the first part of yesterday’s trading session as the UK Manufacturing Production showed a totally disappointing decrease of -1.3%. Later in the day however, the bulls erased most of the losses.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday we saw an immediate rejection when price touched the support zone created at 1.7095, a fact that shows that bulls still have a lot of underlying strength and could very well take the pair into 1.7180 area. Despite bad UK economic data, the US Dollar cannot take the Pound lower and for the time being, support is holding so the chances of a new high have increased.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any market moving economic indicators so price direction will be influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes and by technical factors.
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  #11  
Old 10-07-2014, 13:49
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: THE GREENBACK CONTINUES TO LOSE GROUND. RESISTANCE LEVELS THREATENED



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday, before the FOMC Meeting Minutes, the pair rose to touch resistance as the US Dollar continued to lose ground against the Euro. The Minutes had a mixed impact and took the pair higher after an initial drop.


Technical Outlook
The bulls have the opportunity to break 1.3640 resistance and to take the pair into 1.3675. Since we are trading in a range-bound market, support and resistance levels tend to have a greater importance than in a trending market so if price stalls at 1.3675 and the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought, we anticipate a bearish pullback.

Fundamental Outlook
The ECB will release their Monthly Bulletin today at 8:00 am GMT; the document will contain an economic outlook and economic expectations from the Bank’s perspective and also reveals the data which was analyzed when the ECB made the Interest Rate decision. The event is considered to have a medium impact on the Euro unless surprising data is revealed.


GBP/USD
The pair touched support once again but the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes generated a push north and currently the pair is headed towards 1.7180 top.


Technical Outlook
The US Dollar doesn’t seem to have an answer for Pound’s strength and the bears cannot break a single support level. Every time the pair touches the support at 1.7095, it bounces upwards but on the higher time frames, price is overbought and retracements lower are a distinct possibility. Until 1.7180 or 1.7095 is broken, out bias is neutral on the pair.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England announces today the Interest Rate but no change is anticipated from the current 0.50% and probably the event will just create irregular volatility at the time of the release. If any hints are offered about future rate increases or if speculation takes over the market, we will probably see strong movement for the Pound. The scheduled time is 11:00 am GMT and we recommend caution if trading.
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  #12  
Old 11-07-2014, 11:53
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: THE LACK OF IMPORTANT ECONOMIC RELEASES SETS THE STAGE FOR SLOW PRICE ACTION



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro lost its appeal for investors as a Portuguese bank missed debt payments and generated concerns for the region’s economic recovery. As a result, the pair bounced lower at resistance and support is threatened again.


Technical Outlook
The resistance zone located at 1.3640 – 1.3650 held perfectly yesterday and stopped the previous rally, generating a swift move into the support located at 1.3585. The same bounce-or-break scenario will be played out today: a bearish break will open the door for a touch of 1.3520 while a bounce higher will make 1.3640 the first upper target once more. A breakout is anticipated, considering that for the entire week the pair traded in this narrow range, but the direction is unclear.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead, with no major economic news scheduled for release by either Europe or the United States. Price action is expected to be ranging unless unscheduled events occur.


GBP/USD
Bank of England decided to keep the interest rate at a record low of 0.50%, a fact that was anticipated by market participants and as a result, it didn’t create any market volatility.


Technical Outlook
The bulls didn’t manage to take price as high as 1.7180 and yesterday the pair’s direction was bearish; however, 1.7095 wasn’t threatened and price remained inside the channel created by the two mentioned levels. As we stated before, the pair is overbought on the higher time frames and this increases the chance of a bearish move, but we maintain our neutral stance until a break of either support or resistance occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
The day is calm for the Pound as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule for release any high-impact indicators. Price direction will be mainly affected by technical factors.
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  #13  
Old 14-07-2014, 12:38
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Default Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF MARIO DRAGHI’S TESTIMONY



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday lacked major news announcements and price action was extremely slow, moving sideways for almost the entire day. Support is still holding as the pair traded in a 35 pip range.


Technical Outlook
Price remains confined within the horizontal channel created by the support located at 1.3585 and the resistance at 1.3640. Lately the pair totally lacks volatility and bounces between S/R levels as neither bulls nor bears seem interested to take control of direction. We expect more of this type of movement until 1.3640 or 1.3585 is broken, a fact which may occur today during Mario Draghi’s speech.

Fundamental Outlook
At 5:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy in Strasbourg, before European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The speech will most likely offer clues about future monetary direction and actions of the ECB, probably generating a price breakout. We recommend caution if trading during the speech.


GBP/USD
The Pound slowed down Friday and weakened against the greenback but the bears couldn’t take the pair below 1.7095 and the week finished above this support.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.7095 has been tested several times and the downwards pressure is increasing lately. The Pound reached historical highs and now the time for a bearish retracement has come, considering the fact that price is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is moving down from overbought territory on the higher time frames (Daily and Weekly). If today 1.7095 is broken, the first potential target is 1.7063; otherwise we will have another day when price ranges inside the channel.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a calm economic day as no major events are scheduled by the UK. Price action will be mostly driven by technical factors.
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  #14  
Old 15-07-2014, 06:19
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FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY AHEAD. HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS AND HEAVY MOVEMENT EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro adopted a bullish path yesterday on the back of speculation that the ECB might use more stimulus measures such as a lending program which will boost consumer credit.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved higher, in close vicinity of 1.3640 resistance but according to the ranging style which governs the market lately, it bounced lower. The main levels to watch remain1.3640 as resistance and 1.3585 as support but considering today’s main events, we anticipate a breakout; however, the direction will be totally dependent on the outcome of these events.

Fundamental Outlook
Germany will announce at 9:00 am GMT the ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released, showing the level of optimism among German institutional investors and analysts who are highly informed about economic conditions due to the nature of their jobs. The anticipated value is 28.9, a decrease from the previous 29.8 and lower numbers usually weaken the Euro.

The US Retail Sales are released at 12:30 pm GMT; the indicator measures the change in sales made at retail outlets and its release is considered to have a high impact. The expected value is 0.6% compared with the previous 0.3% and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify today at 2:00 pm GMT in Washington before the Senate Banking Committee; the topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech is likely to be a major market mover, especially during its the second part when members of the Committee will ask questions and Janet Yellen will answer them.


GBP/USD
The Pound finally retraced yesterday and managed to break the closest support. The move south is attributed to high prices that were overextended and in need of a breather.


Technical Outlook
The break of the support located at 1.7095 is not a reason to believe the uptrend has finished but rather a signal that bullish momentum is fading. The chances of moves upwards remain high and a good place for uptrend resumption is 1.7063 (which is potential support, not confirmed yet), followed by 1.7010. The day’s fundamental events will have a very high impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the price that consumers have to pay for the goods they purchase and is the main gauge of inflation; any increases above the expected 1.6% can further strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify at 9:00 am GMT about the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing. The testimony can have a huge effect on Pound’s movement, depending on the Governor’s attitude and answers so we recommend caution if trading at the time. Of course, the US events mentioned above will have a direct and high impact on price action.
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  #15  
Old 16-07-2014, 14:16
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR YELLEN’S SECOND TESTIMONY


EUR/USD
Forex News: Germany posted yesterday a disappointing number for the ZEW Economic Sentiment, showing that optimism regarding economic conditions is declining. On top of that, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that the economy continues to improve and the US Dollar added to the previous gains.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.3585 was broken yesterday on the back of Euro weakness coupled with greenback strength but the level still needs to be re-tested to confirm the break. This re-test is usually seen easier on a lower time frame and if it is successful, we anticipate a touch of the next support, located at 1.3520. A move back above 1.3585 would make 1.3640 the first target and would suggest that the ranging period is still not over.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Producer Price index is released at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the change in prices paid by producers for their goods and services, compared to the previous month. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to retailers and ultimately, to the consumer. The expected change is 0.2% compared with last month’s -0.2% and higher numbers are considered beneficial for the greenback. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, an event considered to have a high impact on the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Pound scored another major victory against the greenback as United Kingdom’s CPI showed an unexpected increase from 1.5% to 1.9%. As a result, the pair printed a new multi-year high at 1.7191.


Technical Outlook
Although we have a new high, the resistance located around 1.7180 held yesterday and even rejected price lower; at the moment, that resistance is just pierced, not broken and we expect a new descent into 1.7095 support zone as the market is still overextended. A daily close above 1.7180 would be considered a true break of resistance and would indicate that higher prices will follow.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event for the Pound is the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people claiming social help due to their lack of jobs. A higher number suggests economic contraction and usually weakens the Pound; the release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is -27.1K while the previous was -27.4K.
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  #16  
Old 17-07-2014, 11:53
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS EUROPEAN INFLATION INDICATORS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar continued to advance against the Euro as Fed Chair Janet Yellen maintained a hawkish attitude and the US Producer Price Index change surpassed analysts’ expectations. Price is nearing support but no attempts were made to break it.


Technical Outlook
An important support for medium term price action is ahead: 1.3520 and we are faced with another bounce-or-break scenario. However, this time we slightly favor a bounce north, mostly because the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level downwards, suggesting oversold conditions and from a medium term perspective, the pair has been ranging. If the current support is broken, the next destination is likely to be 1.3480 (visible on a Daily chart).

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s inflation target is just below 2% and the current CPI value is considered too low, thus an even lower value would be detrimental for the Euro.

At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out, showing the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding current economic and business conditions. The expected value is 15.6, a decrease from the previous 17.8 and lower numbers usually weaken the greenback.


GBP/USD
The pair had a mixed trading day yesterday and price remained confined between support and resistance despite signs of improving job market in the United Kingdom.


Technical Outlook
Price is still on its way to 1.7095 following a bounce off 1.7180 resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading so there is no major reason to believe that bulls will take back control of the pair unless the US economy will show surprising figures.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases so all eyes will turn towards the United States events.
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  #17  
Old 18-07-2014, 12:47
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT LEVELS AHEAD. A BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIO UNFOLDS



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair touched 1.3520 support yesterday but the European CPI remained unchanged and price stalled. The US Manufacturing Index for the Philadelphia district posted a surprisingly good value but the release just briefly strengthened the US Dollar.


Technical Outlook
The bears’ run seems exhausted and the Relative Strength Index is starting to climb out of oversold territory, a fact which suggests that support is still too strong for the sellers to break and that a bounce up might be next. However, yesterday’s ranging price action leaves the door open for both a bounce and a break. First resistance is located at 1.3585 while support sits at 1.3480 (if the current level is broken).

Fundamental Outlook
The sole release that can trigger sharp moves is the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually when people are optimistic about the country’s economic conditions, they tend to spend more. The release is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and the expected figure is 83.5, a rise from the previous 82.5; if analysts’ forecast is surpassed, we are likely to see US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD
The Pound wasn’t affected by major news releases yesterday and the pair continued to move down towards 1.7095 as predicted. The US release helped the bears achieve this target.


Technical Outlook
For medium term movement, the support located at 1.7063 is very important but the first barrier in front of falling prices is the current level of 1.7095. A break of both these levels would indicate that the pair is ready for a bigger retracement and that the uptrend is starting to fade away. A bounce higher could potentially generate a climb back into 1.7180 area of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Ahead we have another day that lacks major United Kingdom news, thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical factors and by the US release.
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  #18  
Old 21-07-2014, 12:07
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FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE TRANSLATES INTO A SLOW MONDAY



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s trading session was characterized by a major reversal of what seemed to be a clear break of support. The US Consumer Sentiment survey showed a small decrease but the release didn’t have major impact on the pair.


Technical Outlook
Once price entered the zone created between 1.3520 and 1.3480 it was immediately rejected higher. This fact shows that bulls still have underlying strength and that a break of support is a low probability occurrence. The Relative Strength Index continues to move upwards, coming from an oversold condition and for today, we expect higher prices but a slow, ranging day is also a distinct possibility since no major economic indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Bundesbank will release their Monthly Report at 10:00 am GMT, containing statistical data and analysis of current and future financial conditions. The event tends to have a higher impact if Bundesbank’s viewpoint differs from the one shown by the ECB.


GBP/USD
The pair had mixed direction Friday as the bears controlled the first part of the day but the Pound erased almost all losses during the second part. Support was tested but price was price higher after a brief dip below.


Technical Outlook
The fact that price was rejected after trying to break 1.7063 may very well be a sign that bulls are ready to resume upwards movement and to take the pair into 1.7180 once again. Even if such a move occurs, we don’t believe the entire distance will be traveled in one day and at the moment 1.7095 sits in front of rising prices. We anticipate a ranging day, with price moving above and below the level which was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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  #19  
Old 22-07-2014, 12:43
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FOREX NEWS: MARKET PICKS UP DIRECTION AHEAD OF US INFLATION DATA



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly characterized by indecision and we saw the pair move higher just to drop immediately to touch support again. Overall the direction was mixed and price had ranging behavior.


Technical Outlook
For today we expect a more directional price action as the pair will probably break away from the current level of 1.3520. However, the direction of the move will be mostly influenced by the US economic data due to be released today, because the technical side of the market doesn’t hold any special clues. Yesterday’s high (1.3550) will potentially act as resistance while 1.3520 – 1.3500 zone still acts as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the release of the US Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. A small change is expected from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would suggest that inflation has slowed down and could potentially weaken the US Dollar. AT 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales numbers are released, showing the change in the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. If the number of houses sold increases, this often means that the buyers will spend additional money for furniture, house appliances, electronic devices, etc., thus spurring consumer spending. It also indicates that people are confident in economic conditions since a house is purchased usually when the economy is thriving. Today’s expected number is 4.98M, an increase from last month’s 4.89M.


GBP/USD
The lack of major economic releases generated a ranging day for the GBP/USD as well. Price moved between 1.7095 and 1.7063 without being able to break free for the entire day.


Technical Outlook
If the bears can take price below 1.7063 and at least one four-hour candle will close below this level, we are likely to see a touch of 1.7010 support next. A move above 1.7095 will open the door for uptrend resumption and possibly a touch of 1.7080 resistance zone (even if this comes true, the distance is too big to be traveled in a single day).

Fundamental Outlook
AT 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Industrial Orders Expectations. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 550 manufacturers which shows the expectations of order volume for the next 3 months. Analysts’ forecast is a decrease from the previous 11 to 9, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound if it were to come true.
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Old 23-07-2014, 13:27
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. SOME CORRECTION EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as speculation of Fed increasing interest rates took over the market. The American Consumer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.3%.


Technical Outlook
The pair finally broke the support zone created around 1.3500 and is now headed for the next important level of 1.3400 seen on the daily chart above. However, from a four hour chart perspective, the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level to the downside once again, suggesting an oversold condition of the market. This indicates that upside corrections are likely to happen today and we expect moves above 1.3480 before price can resume bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
Today price action will be dictated mainly by the technical factors since no major economic indicators are released by either the United States or Europe.


GBP/USD
Price moved below 1.7063 yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength but the gains weren’t as significant as the ones seen against the Euro. The pair continues to lack clear direction but the long term uptrend is severely weakened.


Technical Outlook
The first barrier in front of the bears is located at 1.7010 but for the time being the support at 1.7063 is still not clearly surpassed. The four hour candle has long upper and lower wicks, a fact which indicates indecision and shows that control doesn’t belong to either side completely. The pair’s direction will be decided today by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the votes on the latest BOE interest rate will be made public, showing how many MPC members voted for a rate change and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Analysts predict that all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged and if this forecast comes true, the impact of the release will be mild.

At 11:45 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games Trade and Investment conference. As always, his speeches can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden moves, thus caution is recommended.
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  #21  
Old 24-07-2014, 12:02
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FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA BRINGS THE EURO OUT OF CONSOLIDATION PHASE



EUR/USD
Forex News: Price moved sideways for the entire day yesterday as no major economic indicators were released by either the United States or Europe. The trading session was extremely slow and no important levels were broken.



Technical Outlook
The pair almost paused yesterday, consolidating below 1.3480 and moving in a 20 pip range for almost the entire day, making trading very difficult. Also, yesterday’s price action doesn’t add any clues to the pair’s next direction so we maintain our belief that price will correct slightly to the north before dropping further. On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory, a fact which adds to the bias showed above.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro will be influenced today by two releases: at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is scheduled and at 7:30 am GMT, the same indicator for the German economy comes out. The French PMI is expected to increase from 48.2 to 48.5 while the German PMI is anticipated to change from 52.0 to 52.2. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and better readings show optimism, usually strengthening the single currency.


GBP/USD
All members of BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged but the Minutes of their latest meeting were a bit more dovish than market participants anticipated and the Pound weakened throughout the day as a result.



Technical Outlook
We expect the current direction to continue until 1.7010 is touched as this is the first level of support and it is likely to act as a magnet for price. Yesterday price moved north to touch 1.7095 and immediately bounced lower, showing that this level is now resistance. If the Relative Strength Index will indicate oversold conditions once support is touched, the probability of a move north will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event for the Pound will be the release of UK’s Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the economy and thus hold a great importance for the Pound’s strength. The anticipated change is 0.2%, compared with last month’s -0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound if it were to come true.
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  #22  
Old 25-07-2014, 12:21
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the Euro was strongly affected by a German survey which showed that optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector has increased. The better than expected value reversed a previous drop generated by the French counterpart of the same indicator.


Technical Outlook
At the moment price is re-testing the recently broken level of 1.3480 and if this results in a bounce lower, the level will turn into resistance and the door will be open for a move towards 1.3400 which is the next support. If 1.3480 doesn’t become resistance, the next level that can stop bullish movement is located at 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released and expected to show a value of 109.6. The survey draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. Under normal circumstances, better than anticipated numbers strengthen the Euro and push the pair higher.

The US Durable Goods Orders come out at 12:30 pm GMT and a hefty increase is expected: 0.4% from the previous -0.9%. This is a leading indicator of production since more orders suggest that producers will have to increase their activity in order to fill them.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Retail Sales disappointed as the value was lower than forecast and this fact triggered Pound weakness which took the pair below support.


Technical Outlook
The level at 1.7010 was broken decisively and lower prices may follow, but before that can happen, a pullback to the upside is very probable; the Relative Strength Index has already passed the 30 level, reaching oversold territory, a fact which increases bullish pressure. The first potential resistance is now located at 1.7010 while support sits at 1.6950 followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s most important gauge of economic performance is announced today at 8:30 am GMT: the Gross Domestic Product. No change is expected from last month’s value of 0.8% but any fluctuations will most likely have a big impact.
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  #23  
Old 28-07-2014, 16:22
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF US HOUSE-MARKET DATA



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s entire trading session was controlled by the bears as the US Dollar benefited from a better than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders and the Euro was weakened by a disappointing German


Technical Outlook
The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until price reaches 1.3400 which is the next support. The Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition of the pair, a fact which increases the possibility of bullish corrections. If this will be the case, the first place where price can resume downwards motion is the resistance located at 1.3480. It is also possible to see ranging price action, considering the fact that Monday’s are usually slow days and that Friday price moved pretty strong compared to its latest behavior.

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Pending Home Sales numbers scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of houses under contract to be sold upon the completion of a final transaction and usually a higher value is beneficial to the US Dollar; today’s expected change is -0.2%, a major drop from the previous 6.1%.


GBP/USD
The pair exhibited ranging price action Friday as the release of the American Durable Goods Orders didn’t seem to affect the Pound too much.


Technical Outlook
Price is likely to hit 1.6950 before retracing higher, but if the level will be broken to the downside, the next support is located at 1.6920 and we don’t expect it to be broken today. To the upside the first target is 1.7010 and we might see moves in close vicinity of this level depending on the outcome of the US Pending Home Sales release.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price will be mainly affected by technical factors and the US house data.
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  #24  
Old 29-07-2014, 12:32
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY CONFIDENCE AMONG AMERICAN CONSUMERS


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and lacked clear direction as both the US Dollar and the Euro were little affected by news and economic indicators. The bulls were slightly more active but price traded in a narrow range.


Technical Outlook
Price is moving upwards, coming from oversold territory and this behavior is likely to continue until the Relative Strength Index will reach its 50 level. The medium term trend is bearish and moves north should be considered just corrections, not a change of trend; resistance is located at 1.3480 and support at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro will not be affected by major news releases today and the US Consumer Confidence will be the main market mover for the Dollar. The survey is scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 85.5, a small increase from the previous 85.2. Confidence among consumers is a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
US Dollar weakness was seen throughout yesterday and the pair moved slowly upwards for almost the entire day. The disappointing value of the US Pending Home Sales also played a role in this bullish move.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and this opens the door for short term downtrend resumption. The first target to the south is 1.6950, followed by 1.6920 while potential resistance sits at 1.7010. We must keep in mind that from a long term perspective the pair is in a clear uptrend, a fact which increases the chances of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Net Lending to Individuals. This indicator shows the change in the total value of loans granted to consumers and is also a leading indicator of consumer spending. A higher value suggests that consumers are willing to spend money and banks are comfortable granting loans, a fact which usually strengthens the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.6B, a slight decrease from last month’s 2.7B.
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  #25  
Old 30-07-2014, 11:25
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FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A MARKET STORM ARE PRESENT. MAJOR US EVENTS SCHEDULED



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of improved American consumer confidence as shown by a report which came out with a reading of 90.9 compared with the anticipated value of 85.5. Sellers controlled the day but the distance traveled wasn’t spectacular.


Technical Outlook
Price is close to the support located at 1.3400 and we consider that today this level will be touched. The technical aspect of the market will be greatly overshadowed by the fundamentals but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is moving again below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and favors bullish moves. Support is still located at 1.3400 while resistance sits at 1.3480.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to decrease slightly from the previous 0f 0.3% to 0.2%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as German inflation accounts for the major part of Euro Zone’s inflation.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 12:15 pm GMT, showing the change in the number of jobs created during the last month. The report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the more important Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The expected number is 234K and better numbers usually
strengthen the greenback.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Advance Gross Domestic Product is announced with a hefty increase expected: 3.1% while last month’s value was -2.9%. Such a big change would benefit the Dollar as the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and this is the earliest version which usually has the highest impact.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the American interest rate is announced but no change is anticipated and the FOMC Statement which accompanies the rate decision will be a more important market mover as it outlines possible future rate changes and the pace of the bond-buying program.


GBP/USD
The Pound was little affected by economic releases yesterday and Dollar strength took the pair below minor support.


Technical Outlook
A strong support level is ahead: 1.6920; price is likely to stall or even reverse here, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index, but as we mentioned above, the US Dollar will be highly affected today by economic data and the technical aspect will be secondary. The next strong and confirmed support (if 1.6920 is broken) is located at 1.6700 while first resistance sits at 1.7010.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases and all eyes will be focused on the United States.
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Old 31-07-2014, 10:52
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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT TURNS RESISTANCE? PRICE ACTION WILL TELL



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar gained on the back of a value of the American Gross Domestic Product which surpassed analysts’ expectations. During the Fed announcements the greenback initially added to previous gains but it soon started to weaken, given the dovish attitude of the Statement.


Technical Outlook
Support at 1.3400 was broken during the day but price immediately returned to test it from below. The cluster of data released yesterday didn’t create unidirectional movement and this brings us to a crossroad: if previous support will turn into resistance, price will likely continue downwards into the next major support which is located at 1.3295, but otherwise, the break of support will prove to be a false one and the pair will be headed north. For the time being, yesterday’s low located at 1.3366 might act as minor support.

Fundamental Outlook
The fundamental scene calms down a bit today as the only major event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s target for inflation is just below 2.0% and the current value is considered too low, thus an even lower number would be detrimental for the Euro and would most likely drive the pair south.


GBP/USD
US Dollar strength seen throughout the day allowed the bears to break the major support located at 1.6290 but once the FOMC Statement was released, the Pound managed to erase some of the previous losses.


Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.6920 wasn’t a false one and it can be sustained, it means that a major victory was scored by the bears and the medium term balance shifts in their favor. Note that the Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and tries to move out of it, a fact which favors bullish moves and if these types of moves occur, the first resistance and target is located at 1.6950.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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  #27  
Old 01-08-2014, 14:03
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FOREX NEWS: NON FARM PAYROLLS – THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER



EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had mixed direction yesterday as the Euro was weakened by a disappointing value of the Consumer Price Index, but apparently the US Dollar wasn’t strong enough to take the pair significantly lower.


Technical Outlook
From a four-hour chart perspective the pair is in a clear downtrend but signs of weakness are present although the support at 1.3400 was broken and was tested from below several times (visible on the lower time frames). A sign of weakness is the fact that bears failed to break the low at 1.3366 even if 1.3400 turned into resistance; also, the Relative Strength Index spent a lot of time hugging the 30 level which suggests an oversold market. However, today’s direction will be decided by the fundamental rather than the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s market moving event is the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls which is the most important jobs-related data for the US economy and tracks changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 230K while last month’s number was 288K. Such a decrease would weaken the greenback and drive the pair higher.


GBP/USD
The Pound continued to lose ground to the US Dollar yesterday and we saw the bears in control for the most part of the day. Broken support was successfully re-tested from below and price bounced lower.


Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time and the short term downtrend is in need of a retracement higher. Yesterday’s low will most likely act as minor support and if today the bears don’t manage to break it, we will most likely see higher prices. The US Dollar will be highly affected by the NFP release and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to drop slightly from the previous 57.5 to 57.2. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than expected numbers will probably strengthen the Pound.
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  #28  
Old 04-08-2014, 11:39
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENED BY EMPLOYMENT FIGURES. POUND AFFECTED BY CONSTRUCTION DATA



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s main event was without a doubt the disappointing number shown by the US Non Farm Payrolls (actual 209K; expected 231K). As a result, the US Dollar weakened and the pair moved above resistance.


Technical Outlook
Today we expect a quiet day, with mostly ranging price action as the pair will probably take a “breather” after Friday’s strong move. However, the latest momentum favors the bulls and the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.3445; support sits at 1.3400 but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook
The fundamental scene lacks major economic indicators today and this fact adds to our belief that price will not make any spectacular advances.


GBP/USD
The Pound was weakened Friday by a worse than anticipated Manufacturing PMI and that’s why the bulls couldn’t capitalize on the disappointing value of the US Non Farm Payrolls. The day belonged to the bears as price closed lower than the opening of the day.


Technical Outlook
Pound weakness continues to be seen and the bears continue to dominate although the US economy shows signs of contraction and the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time. First potential support is represented by Friday’s low (1.6809) but today’s price action will be mainly influenced by the value of the Construction PMI.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the day’s only notable indicator of the day is released: United Kingdom’s Construction PMI. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The anticipated value is 62.1 which is a decrease from the previous 62.6 and lower than expected numbers will most likely weaken the Pound further.
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Old 05-08-2014, 12:11
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FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA BRINGS PRICE OUT OF MONDAY’S TIGHT RANGE



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked volatility almost completely as the market took a “breather” after Friday’s stronger than usual movement. No economic indicators were released and this contributed to the ranging price action.


Technical Outlook
The minor resistance created at 1.3445 wasn’t threatened yesterday but this will be the first barrier which the bulls need to break in order to weaken last month’s downtrend. Support is located at 1.3400 and until either one of the mentioned levels is broken, the market will remain in a ranging phase. For the time being our bias is neutral, expecting a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Retail Sales change percentage is released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected o increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.0%. Higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Euro as the retail sector is a major part of the European economy.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing sector about economic and business conditions. The expected value is 56.6, an increase from the previous 56.0 and under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated values are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed yesterday a slightly better than anticipated reading and as a result the Pound climbed but overall we had a slow trading day.


Technical Outlook
For the time being the bulls lack the strength needed to reverse the medium term downtrend and we are likely to see another encounter with the support located at 1.6809. If this potential encounter will occur, and support will hold, price is likely to shoot up, considering the fact that the pair needs a bullish correction after such an extended drop as the one seen during the last month.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Services PMI is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous 57.7 to 58.1. The indicator is an index derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector regarding current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Readings above 50 indicate optimism and numbers above estimates usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
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Old 06-08-2014, 11:15
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE. EURO BULLS FIGHT BACK



EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar gained against most of its counterparts as yesterday’s reports showed improvements for the US economy and traders’ interest for the American currency was renewed.


Technical Outlook
The pair fell for almost the entire day and the downtrend has new found strength as 1.3400 support was clearly broken. The next important support level is located at 1.3295 but the current level of 1.3365 is very likely to stop short term movement as we will probably see price stall here. The day ahead lacks major economic releases thus ranging price action might be in order.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Factory Orders are announced at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from -1.7% to 0.5%, a fact which would benefit the Euro; later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is -44.2B and values closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback. Both indicators usually have a medium-impact on the market but surprising numbers can increase their importance.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Services PMI posted a better than expected value and momentarily strengthened the Pound; however, the rally couldn’t be continued and the Dollar erased some of the Pound’s early gains.


Technical Outlook
The first logical place where downwards motion can be resumed is the resistance located at 1.6920, but considering the way the pair has been moving lately, we might see this resumption occur before the level is hit. The US Dollar is strong at the moment and bullish moves should be regarded as corrections, not reversals of the medium term downtrend. The first level of interest to the downside is 1.6809.

Fundamental Outlook
The main Pound-affecting event of the day is the release of the UK Manufacturing Production which is expected to change to 0.7% from last month’s -1.3%. The indicator measures change in the output produced by the manufacturing sector and is considered a high-impact indicator; the time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and better values will most likely strengthen the Pound.
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  #31  
Old 07-08-2014, 12:14
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FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE: THE DAY’S MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENT



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro dropped yesterday as the German Factory Orders showed an extremely disappointing figure, while demand for the US Dollar increased on the back of a better than expected value of the American Trade Balance.


Technical Outlook
After a brief stall at 1.3365 minor support, the pair resumed bearish price action and broke the level with relative ease. If this previous minor support will turn into resistance today (after a test from below, followed by a potential bounce lower), the next target will become the key level at 1.3295, but today price direction will be heavily influenced by Mario Draghi’s speech at the ECB Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce their decision regarding the Interest Rate (no change is anticipated) but the real market mover will probably be the Press Conference held 45 minutes later. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and afterwards, he will answer journalists’ questions about monetary policy, rate changes and economic recovery plans. This second part of the Press Conference is usually the one that creates the highest volatility as traders around the world try to interpret Draghi’s attitude and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time because price action can be erratic during the Conference.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure of 0.3%, lower than the anticipated 0.7%, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the US Dollar to resume the pair’s downwards movement.


Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance around 1.6885 and the first support is located at 1.6809. The medium term downtrend seems to be resumed but as a confirmation, the level at 1.6809 must be broken today. Bearish pressure is present and the Pound is weakened by the latest disappointing figures but a major role will be played today by the BOE decision regarding the interest rate.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate and although no changes are anticipated (currently the rate is set at 0.50%), the event is likely to generate some volatility. The outcome of the rate decision is somewhat known as almost all analysts expect it to remain unchanged but caution is recommended nonetheless.
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  #32  
Old 08-08-2014, 12:55
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FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK FINISHES WITH THE GREENBACK IN CONTROL



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s ECB Press Conference generated mixed movement as the pair reversed direction several times. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates in Europe will remain lower for a longer period than they will in the United States.


Technical Outlook
The Euro was weakened by Mario Draghi’s comments and this bearish momentum is likely to continue throughout today’s session. First support and barrier in front of falling prices is located in the zone around 1.3330 and a break would open the door for a move into the more important support located at 1.3295; first resistance is represented by the level at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a calm day ahead as far as economic news releases are concerned. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD
The Bank of England maintained the interest rate value unchanged and as a result the event didn’t create volatility or strong directional movement.

Technical Outlook
The pair remained confined between 1.6885 resistance and 1.6809 support. Today we are likely to see a breakout which will probably favor the bears, considering the fact that the medium term trend is down. The next major support is located at 1.6700 but we don’t expect such a distance to be traveled in one day even if 1.6809 is broken decisively; first resistance is represented by the top created around 1.6885.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The indicator is considered to have a mild impact but higher numbers than the anticipated -8.9B will most likely strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
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Old 11-08-2014, 11:47
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FOREX NEWS: IRAQ TENSIONS MAKE THEIR MARK ON THE CURRENCY MARKET



EUR/USD
US planes bombed several military targets in Iraq as tensions escalated and the Americans intervened in order to prevent a massacre of religious minorities. The Dollar was negatively affected by these events and the pair climbed Friday for the entire day.


Technical Outlook
At the moment market participants are moving to safe-haven assets as the UD Dollar is considered too volatile and risky. The current rally is likely to continue thru 1.3445 resistance if the political situation doesn’t calm down; the Dollar’s movement will be highly affected by this new tension and S/R levels might be broken with ease so we recommend caution for the next days.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic indicators and we expect slow movement but a lot depends on the developments in Iraq.


GBP/USD
Minor support was broken and the Pound weakened Friday against the greenback although the latter was affected by the Iraq crisis.



Technical Outlook
The bearish move is overextended as the Relative Strength Index is again trading in oversold territory. Today we are likely to see a move higher which can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.6809 but, as mentioned above, price will be prone to sudden changes of direction, depending on Iraq developments. First support is located at 1.6700 but this level is not likely to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases today but we recommend caution, considering the political environment.
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  #34  
Old 12-08-2014, 12:32
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FOREX NEWS: GERMANY’S ZEW SURVEY IN THE FOCUS



EUR/USD
Yesterday the pair grinded lower but movement was very sluggish as the day didn’t have any major news releases and tensions in Iraq and Ukraine eased.


Technical Outlook
Price returned below 1.3400, a fact which shows that bulls lack the strength needed to stage a full scale reversal. Lately the pair is confined between 1.3445 resistance and 1.3330 support but we slightly favor a move into the mentioned support, especially if the bears can maintain price below the current level of 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s only major event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of German analysts and institutional investors and it’s focused on their opinions regarding a 6 month outlook. The nature of their jobs keeps them highly informed on the economic situation and at the same time, increases the importance of this survey. The expected number is 18.2, a significant decrease from the previous 27.1 and lower numbers will most likely weaken the Euro.


GBP/USD
The pair had an extremely slow day yesterday and no major developments took place on either the fundamental or the technical scene.


Technical Outlook
We expect a touch of 1.6809 resistance before downside movement can resume and it is important to note that price is printing lower lows while the Relative Strength Index is showing higher lows, a behavior known as regular bullish divergence. Often times this divergence results in moves north but the medium term downtrend is strong so we are likely to see bearish movement after an upside correction.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important indicators for the day thus the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.
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  #35  
Old 13-08-2014, 12:13
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY RETAIL SALES FIGURES, POUND INFLUENCED BY CARNEY’S SPEECH



EUR/USD
The German ZEW survey disappointed drastically by posting a reading of 8.6, while the anticipated number was 18.2 and as a result the Euro lost ground in front of the greenback for almost the entire day.


Technical Outlook
As soon as price came in close vicinity of 1.3330 support, a bullish reaction could be seen and this indicates that price may stall or even reverse at this level. The medium term downtrend is bearish but a new low couldn’t be established since last week and the pair is at a crossroad: a break of 1.3330 will most likely take price into 1.3295 key support while a bounce would suggest that 1.3400 will be revisited.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Retail Sales will be the day’s main event for the pair. Higher values suggest a thriving economy where people are comfortable spending and this fuels further economic activity. The scheduled time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2%, same as last month; better than anticipated values usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
As expected the Pound bounced higher yesterday, completing a bullish retracement which took price into the first minor resistance. No major economic indicators were released and the move was mostly generated by technical factors.


Technical Outlook
We are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario at the current level of 1.6809 and from a technical point of view a drop would be in order since yesterday’s move was just a correction to the downtrend. A bullish break of the current level will make 1.6885 the next target while a bounce lower will probably take the pair close to the major support at 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
Price direction will be heavily influenced today by UK’s Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared to the last month. It will be released at 8:30 am GMT with an anticipated change of -29.7 (previous -36.3) and higher numbers will most likely weaken the Pound. An hour later the BOE will release the Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech regarding its contents. This is likely to be the main event of the day for the Pound, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed.
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  #36  
Old 14-08-2014, 12:07
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FOREX NEWS: EURO BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR THE RELEASE OF THE GERMAN GDP



EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar weakened on the back of a disappointing figure shown by the Retail Sales and this allowed the pair to climb above 1.3400 support.


Technical Outlook
As we saw, even if 1.3400 was pierced yesterday, the bulls couldn’t maintain price above this level and this suggests that we might see more of the ranging movement experienced lately. Another encounter with 1.3330 is very possible now that we’ve seen price rejected by resistance. If 1.3330 is broken, the pair is likely to visit 1.3295, while 1.3400 still remains the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event will be the release of the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled for release at 6:00 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 0.8% to -0.1%. The GDP is considered to be an economy’s main performance gauge and since Germany accounts for the major part of Europe’s economy, lower numbers will most likely have a negative impact on the single currency.


GBP/USD
As revealed by the Inflation Report, the Bank of England cut their expectations for economic growth and also, BOE Governor Carney mentioned that interest rates will not be increased in the near future. The pound weakened significantly as a result and major support was touched.


Technical Outlook
The key support level at 1.6700 was touched as the pair traveled substantially lower. This huge drop is likely to continue throughout today but it’s also very possible to see a stall before the level will be clearly broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached oversold territory again and we are likely to see some sort of bullish movement. The next support is located at 1.6550, a level visible on a Daily chart.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major economic releases scheduled for the Pound today and price action will be influenced mostly by the technical aspect.
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  #37  
Old 15-08-2014, 15:46
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FOREX NEWS: BOTH PAIRS BELOW RESISTANCE. RETESTS ANTICIPATED



EUR/USD
Forex News: Germany’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product showed a lower than expected value, but despite this, the Euro strengthened throughout the day. However, resistance couldn’t be broken and the pair shows signs of indecision.


Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.3400 was pierced again yesterday but, similar to a day before, price returned almost immediately below the level. This shows underlying bearish pressure and warns about a potential drop below the support located at 1.3300. However, if during the day the bulls manage to close a significant candle above 1.3400, we are likely to see a move in close vicinity of 1.3445.

Fundamental Outlook
French and Italian banks will be closed today, celebrating Assumption Day and no major news comes out for the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the Producer Price Index which is released at 12:30 pm GMT and is expected to post a change of 0.1% compared with last month’s 0.4%. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually transmitted to the consumer.

At 1:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey based on the opinions of about 500 consumers. The expected figure is 82.7, an increase from the prior 81.8 and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because confidence among consumers is often a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD
The pair had a slow trading session but we saw a new low followed by a bullish retracement which didn’t manage to take price above 1.6700.


Technical Outlook
Today we expect a test of the level at 1.6700 and this test will decide whether the pair can continue lower towards 1.6550 or a stronger move north is in order. The Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory and this favors bullish moves but the bears control the market at the moment so all moves to the upside should be considered just corrections.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.8%, same as last month and under normal circumstances, higher numbers benefit the Pound as the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance.
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Old 18-08-2014, 11:45
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Default Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE BRINGS A SLOW MONDAY



EUR/USD
United States’ Producer Price Index released Friday posted a value which was anticipated and the event didn’t have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The day lacked major developments and price action was mostly ranging.


Technical Outlook
The pair remained confined between 1.3400 resistance and 1.3330 support but another attempt to break resistance was made; however, this attempt didn’t succeed and the week finished very close to the mentioned level. For the time being, the bulls lack the strength needed to shift the balance in their favor and another encounter with 1.3330 support is a high probability scenario, especially if today resistance is not clearly broken

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event of the day is the release of the German Bundesbank Monthly Report which usually contains notes about economic conditions and an economic outlook. The release is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and has a higher impact if the point of view expressed differs from the one of the European Central Bank.


GBP/USD
The second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product released Friday didn’t surprise in any way and the pair had a slow day, without major direction changes.


Technical Outlook
The pair is trading close to 1.6700, a level which acts like a magnet for price for the time being. For today we anticipate more of the ranging movement experienced Friday but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory on a four-hour chart and on a Daily chart it still shows an oversold condition. This favors bullish action for the day and increases the chances of a move above 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any high-impact releases for the day, thus price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.
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Old 19-08-2014, 11:44
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FOREX NEWS: INFLATION INDICATORS IN THE SPOTLIGHT



EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro had a tough first day of the week against the Dollar and we saw the pair travel south after a slow start of the session; however, major support is still intact.



Technical Outlook
It is clearer now that 1.3400 resistance cannot be broken for the time being and that 1.3330 support is the next target of the pair. We can see several four-hour candles with long upper wicks, a fact that indicates rejection and on top of that, once price started to move south, it did so with strong momentum (full bearish candles). The day’s direction will be also affected by the fundamental scene which becomes busier today.

Fundamental Outlook
An important inflation gauge is released today by the United States: the Consumer Price index. This indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods they purchase and basically shows the buying power of the US Dollar. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is anticipated, from the previous 0.3% to 0.1%; if this comes true, the greenback will most likely weaken against its counterparts.


GBP/USD
The week opened with a gap to the upside, a fact generated by a Sunday Times interview with Mark Carney who reignited speculation of a rate hike.


Technical Outlook
More often than not, weekly gaps tend to be filled, thus another move below 1.6700 might be in order. However, the time factor is not known, meaning that even if the gap will be closed, we cannot know when this is going to happen. For the time being, 1.6700 is not clearly broken and at least a touch of this level will probably occur today.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index will also be released today, at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation in the UK is close to BOE’s targeted range but the indicator is important nonetheless because it is taken into consideration when the interest rate decision is made. Today’s expected change is 1.8% while last month’s was 1.9% and lower numbers usually weaken the Pound.
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Old 20-08-2014, 11:40
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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AND POUND PRONE TO SHARP MOVES. MEETING MINUTES HOLD CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD
Forex News: Positive data released yesterday by the American economy allowed the US Dollar to continue to gain ground against its counterparts and yesterday we saw a clear break of support.


Technical Outlook
The recent break of 1.3330 support is likely a true one but before price can travel south, we need to see a retest of the recently broken level. Adding to this short term bullish view is the oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on the four hour chart above. If the retest results in a bounce lower, the first target is represented by 1.3295 key level.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day will be the release of FOMC’s Meeting Minutes which will offer insights into the reasons which affected their latest decision regarding the interest rate and will possibly contain hints about future monetary policy direction. The release is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT and a high impact is anticipated.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising drop and as a result the Pound weakened substantially against the greenback, taking the pair below support.


Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, we anticipate a bullish retracement before the downside momentum will resume; however, the control clearly belongs to the bears so any moves north should be considered simple pullbacks for the time being. The Relative Strength Index is below 30 again, favoring short term retracements into the first potential resistance located around 1.6660.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England will release today at 8:30 am GMT the details of their latest votes on interest rate and Asset Purchase Facility. If all 9 members voted to keep the rate unchanged, it could mean that an increase will not be seen in the immediate future. If the members’ opinions start to diverge, the release will have a higher impact that usual. The FOMC Meeting Minutes will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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