Forex Lasers Forum  

Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Forex Analysis


Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Forex Analysis


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #81  
Old 11-01-2016, 13:23
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: U.S. DOLLAR ON SHAKY GROUND; MIXED PERFORMANCE AGAINST EURO AND POUND



EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: The last weekly candle is a bullish pin bar although the jobs situation in the United States improved and this should have strengthened the US Dollar. The pair dipped below 1.0825 but soon returned above this level.


Technical Outlook

Last week’s price action created minor support at 1.0710 but now it appears to be headed for the resistance zone between 1.0980 and 1.1040. We expect this zone to be touched in the early days of the week and then the pair will probably start to move lower, towards 1.0825. The chances of this scenario to happen will increase if the Relative Strength Index will reach overbought or will create bearish divergence. Keep in mind that the NFP report was better than expected so we are likely to see US Dollar strength during the week ahead.

Fundamental Outlook


The week ahead is much slower in terms of economic releases and in fact Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet days, without major data coming out. Thursday the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by the President of the European Central Bank, finance ministers from the member states and other important personalities; the same day the U.S. Unemployment Claims come out, but usually the impact of this release is mild.

Friday will be the busiest day of the week, with the headlines being the U.S. Retail Sales and later in the day the Preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey released by the University of Michigan. The impact of the latter fluctuates and depends on the difference between forecast and actual value but usually higher values for any of the 2 indicators can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound is weakening severely and rapidly against the US Dollar and last week the pair closed below key support on the back of a better than anticipated number posted by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.


Technical Outlook

The pair is in need of a retracement to the upside and this week we expect it to climb above 1.4565 (this is a key level of support, better seen on a Weekly chart). The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic on a Daily chart are deep in oversold territory for quite a long time, increasing the chances of a bullish pullback. This potential move up is likely to find resistance in the zone around 1.4700 but the picture is bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday no major indicators are released by the United Kingdom but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the Manufacturing Production which will show changes in the output generated by the British Manufacturing sector. Usually the impact is high, with better numbers showing increased economic activity, thus a stronger Pound. The same day, NIESR will release an Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product and although this is not a final number, if it’s higher than expected it can be beneficial for the currency.

Thursday the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision but no change is expected (currently 0.50%). At the same time the Monetary Policy Committee will release a breakdown of the rate votes (showing the stance of each member) and also a summary of their meeting. This cluster of events is likely to create strong volatility, even if the rate will remain the same.
Reply With Quote
  #82  
Old 18-01-2016, 14:21
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: POUND APPROACHING NEAR 6-YEARS LOW, EURO CAPPED BY TECHNICAL LEVELS



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week was characterized by choppy movement and a lot of back and forth action, without a clear winner. The pair touched support as well as resistance, but didn’t manage to break either one.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced higher at 1.0800 support and during the last day of last week, touched 1.0980 resistance but price action lacks clear direction and we expect this ranging period to continue until either support or resistance is broken decisively. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both mixed and don’t show a lot about future direction but the last daily candle shows a long upper wick, which is a sign of rejection (although not very strong on its own). This week’s ECB press conference will probably generate a breakout but the direction is hard to anticipate at the moment.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday we are likely to see a slow day as U.S. banks are closed in celebration of Martin Luther King Day and Europe doesn’t release any major indicators. Tuesday’s headline is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 German investors and professional analysts regarding current economic conditions as well as an outlook for the next 6 months.

Wednesday the World Economic Forum Annual Meetings start in Davos and will continue for the whole week, possibly generating market volatility. The same day we take a look into U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index, while Thursday the Euro takes center stage as the ECB will announce the interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference. Friday’s only notable event is the release of the German Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that acts as a leading indicator of economic health.


GBP/USD


The Pound continued to deteriorate against the US Dollar last week, without any sign of a move up. The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected but the overall stance was dovish, further weakening the currency.


Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the low reached in 2010, located at 1.4229. Although the level was touched a long time ago, when it was hit it generated a strong bounce, so this time we are likely to see a move up as well. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both in deep oversold territory for a relatively long while and this suggests that a push up is next; however, from a technical point of view this correction to the upside is long overdue, but there’s no trace of it. Nonetheless, the importance of the level at 1.4230 makes us believe that this week we will see bullish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important event of the week for the Pound is the release of the British Consumer Price Index scheduled Tuesday and followed Wednesday by the Average Earnings Index (shows changes in the price paid by businesses and government for labor) and the Claimant Count Change (tracks changes in the number of unemployed people). Both are high-impact indicators and can affect the direction of the Pound so caution is recommended. The last event of the week is the release of the British Retail Sales, scheduled Friday.
Reply With Quote
  #83  
Old 25-01-2016, 14:27
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BREAKOUT SCENARIOS IN PLAY FOR EURO-US DOLLAR, POUND UNDER PRESSURE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week we saw an almost perfect bounce lower once resistance was touched but also some mixed movement generated by the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi during the press conference. He warned that monetary policy may be adjusted in March and this triggered a move into key support.


Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0800 is a major medium term hurdle that needs to be broken if the pair is going to continue south. After the huge daily candle (early December 2015) that initially broke this level to the upside, the bulls failed to continue the move and the pair entered a ranging period which can come to an end if 1.0800 is broken to the downside. Price bounced at 1.0710 so this is an important level too, but the pair seems to react to 1.0800 much better so we consider this a more important level and if it’s broken, we expect a move towards the low at 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate, which is a highly respected survey due to its large sample size of about 7,000 businesses. Representatives of surveyed businesses are asked to give their opinion about current economic conditions as well as an outlook for the next 6 months. Usually, higher than expected numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

Tuesday’s highlight is the United States Consumer Confidence survey and Wednesday the FOMC will release the Rate Statement which also contains their decision on the interest rate. No change is expected for the rate but the document may contain clues about the pace of future hikes and if this is the case, the US Dollar will respond with increased volatility.

Thursday we have the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation in Germany and the same day the U.S. Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) are released. Higher than expected values for any of the 2 indicators can strengthen the respective currency although the impact is often mild.

The last important event of the week for the US Dollar is the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Friday. Out of the three versions of the GDP (Advance, Preliminary and Final), this is the earliest and tends to have the highest impact, with better than expected numbers strengthening the greenback. The same day the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is released, offering insights into the state of inflation throughout the Euro region.


GBP/USD

The pair finally retraced higher last week and came in contact with 1.4350 resistance after establishing a new low at 1.4079, a level last touched in 2009.


Technical Outlook

The overall downtrend is still strong and moves up should still be considered opportunities to enter short-side trades. The last daily candle is a pin bar (long upper wick, with small body) that touched 1.4350 resistance and this is a strong indication that price will move lower this week, probably into 1.4050 support. As mentioned before, this is a very old support (last visited in 2009) and we cannot be sure how price will react to it but considering that last week price reversed in its vicinity, we assume it still has significance for price action. This week we expect a move into the mentioned support but a break of 1.4350 would invalidate such a scenario.

Fundamental Outlook


Only two major events will affect the Pound directly this week: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify Tuesday before the Treasury Select Committee, with the topic being the Financial Stability Report. His speech and the way he answers questions can have a substantial impact on the Pound so caution is recommended.

The second major event of the week is the release of the British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Thursday. This version is the earliest and usually has the highest impact, with numbers above expectations being beneficial for the Pound. As always, the US events mentioned before will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
Reply With Quote
  #84  
Old 01-02-2016, 05:28
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO-DOLLAR STILL IN A RANGE, POUND DOWNTREND WAVERS, OUTCOME DECIDED BY NFP



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair climbed slowly towards resistance during the first 4 days of last week but Friday the US Dollar erased almost all losses and now support is once again threatened. The Bank of Japan introduced negative rates and this had a wide effect on the financial market.


Technical Outlook

If the bears manage to break 1.0800 support, we will see an end of the ranging period and probably a move towards the low at 1.0525 (we don’t expect such a move to happen in one week). We slightly favor the short side but we must note the level at 1.0800 rejected price several times so it is still a strong support and the pair is in ranging mode so another bounce higher is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The first headline of the week ahead is represented by U.S. Manufacturing data that comes out Monday in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. Tuesday is a slow day, without major announcements and Wednesday we take an early look into U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report is less important than the Government data that comes out 2 days later but nonetheless, a higher than expected number is considered beneficial for the US Dollar.

Thursday no major indicators come out and Friday will probably be the most volatile day of the week as the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as Non-Farm Payrolls) is announced. This is considered the most important gauge of employment in the United States and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Almost always the impact is strong and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had a back and forth week and all moves were reversed the next day. The bulls didn’t manage to close above resistance and the pair is now near multi-year lows again.


Technical Outlook

Price showed rejection several times at 1.4350 resistance and it seems the bears are trying to regain control but this will not be achieved until 1.4125 minor support is broken. A more important target is 1.4050, a level that was last touched in 2009. A bullish break of 1.4350 would make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target and also a place where bearish price action may resume.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the British Manufacturing PMI is released, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic strength, focused on their respective sectors but lately the impact is strong only if the actual number shows a hefty difference compared to the forecast.

The most important day of the week for the Pound will be Thursday, when the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report as well as their decision regarding the interest rate and a Monetary Policy Summary that will outline the reasons that determined the rate decision. Later in the day, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Inflation Report. As always, the pair’s direction will be directly influenced by the US events mentioned earlier.
Reply With Quote
  #85  
Old 15-02-2016, 04:56
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BUYERS MEET RESISTANCE, UPWARDS MOMENTUM STARTS TO FADE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week was bullish, with price advancing into 1.1375 but ending on a bearish note, bouncing below 1.1300. Fed Chair Yellen’s 2-part testimony brought some volatility but overall it didn’t have a huge influence on the markets.


Technical Outlook

The bearish bounce at 1.1375 followed by the move close to 1.1200 zone shows that the bullish momentum is starting to wane and that we will probably see a move into lower territory. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought and starting to move down, improving the chances of a bearish week. The first barrier is the support around 1.1210, a zone that already rejected price higher last Friday; a break of this level would probably add more sellers to the mix and will take the pair lower, towards 1.1100. To the upside, first resistance is located at 1.1375, followed by the key level at 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks are closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day so the New York session is likely to show decreased volatility. On the Euro side, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament and this is likely to strongly affect the single currency so caution is advised.

Tuesday’s headline is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey of about 275 investors and analysts regarding their 6-month outlook for the German economy. Wednesday the US Dollar will be strongly influenced by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and Thursday the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is the only notable event. The trading week ends Friday with a look at Unites States inflation as the Consumer Price Index comes out; this is an important gauge of inflation, which showed disappointing numbers for a relatively long while so an increase is likely to bring US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

Last week was characterized by choppy movement and no serious advances were made to either side. All five daily candles show long wicks, suggesting indecision.


Technical Outlook

The pair touched three times last week the resistance at 1.4565 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average but each time it bounced lower. This shows that we are dealing with a strong resistance zone which is likely to drive price lower if it is not broken early in the week; however, the pair is in indecision mode and will remain so until either 1.4565 or 1.4350 is broken. The next direction depends on the direction of this breakout but for extra confirmation, a re-test should follow the initial move.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the week is scheduled Tuesday: the British Consumer Price Index. Numbers above expectations can strengthen the Pound because currently inflation in the UK is considered too low.

Wednesday the British Claimant Count is released, showing the changes in the number of people who applied for unemployment related benefits and the last important event of the week for the Pound is scheduled Friday in the form of the Retail Sales. For most countries, sales made at retail levels represent a major part of overall economic activity, thus a higher number suggests a thriving economic environment and usually a stronger currency.
Reply With Quote
  #86  
Old 22-02-2016, 13:37
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: TECHNICAL SUPPORT PUSHES THE US DOLLAR BACK; BEARS EXPECTED TO STRIKE AGAIN



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week most of the pair’s earlier gains were erased and support was threatened. It seems that once again the bull-bear battle is undecided and without a clear winner.


Technical Outlook

If the current move south finds good support around 1.1100, we might see a bounce higher and a possible continuation of the previous bullish impulse. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity and can be another reason for a move up but a break below this technical indicator is likely to bring more sellers into the market; however, we are dealing with a strong support zone (1.1040 – 1.0980) that will be tough to break. As long as price stays above the 50 EMA we favor the long side for a continuation of the earlier move up.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead begins with the release of the German Manufacturing PMI scheduled Monday and continues Tuesday with the German IFO Business Climate and U.S. Consumer Confidence. All these are surveys that act as leading indicators of economic health and can strengthen their respective currency but often the impact is mild if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations.

Wednesday’s most notable event is the release of the U.S. New Home Sales and Thursday the Durable Goods Orders come out, as well as the European Final version of the CPI. These are medium impact indicators and the market’s reaction depends many times on the overall environment. Friday will be probably the busiest day of the week as the G20 Meetings start and the German Prelim CPI (main gauge of inflation) is released. Also Friday, the United States will announce the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product; this is the first version and tends to have the biggest impact so we may see a hefty US Dollar reaction.


GBP/USD

The pair remained below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average for the entire last week, showing signs that the long term downtrend might be resuming. Friday the bulls erased some of the losses but overall it was a bearish week.


Technical Outlook

Last week ended above 1.4350 after a bullish bounce at 1.4230 so this impulse is likely to take the pair into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. If this line is touched, we expect it to act as resistance and to push price lower. A move above the moving average would show that a significant higher low is created (around 1.4230) and would possibly mark an end to the long term downtrend. A push below 1.4230 would open the door for a move into 1.4125 and thus trend resumption.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a very slow week ahead, with the only major economic indicator being the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Thursday. The GDP is the primary gauge of an economy’s overall performance but the Preliminary version, which has been already released, tends to have the biggest impact. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. releases mentioned earlier.
Reply With Quote
  #87  
Old 29-02-2016, 15:29
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR STRONG ACROSS THE BOARD. NFP WEEK TO ‘MAKE-OR-BREAK’ THE NEW TREND



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The greenback made serious advances against its counterparts last week, backed by strong U.S. economic data. Important levels were broken and downside momentum is now starting to pick up.


Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1040 and 1.0980 seen last week shows that the bears are tilting the balance in their favor and that 1.0800 might be the next target. This is a key support level as seen from previous price action (note the grey rectangles to the left – falling price was rejected higher several times) and if broken, it can affect the long term movement of the pair. The Stochastic has reached oversold but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading so the picture offered by the oscillators is mixed; a move up is likely to find some resistance at the recently broken levels as well as at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with the release of the Flash Estimate version of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index scheduled Monday; this is the main gauge of inflation but the German CPI has been already released last week so Monday’s indicator might lack a strong impact.

Tuesday the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Manufacturing PMI, an indicator derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Action picks up Wednesday with a first look at American jobs situation as Automatic Data Processing will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change. Although important, the impact of this indicator is lower than the one of the Government jobs data that comes out 2 days later.

Thursday the Euro will be affected by the Eurozone Retail Sales and Friday is a huge day for the US Dollar as the Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as Non-Farm Payrolls) comes out, showing the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. This is by far the most important jobs data released by the United States and usually creates increased volatility and possibly sharp turns.


GBP/USD

Last week the long term support at 1.4050 was broken and thus the downtrend has been resumed. The bears made substantial advances and we are likely to see more downside action.


Technical Outlook

Volatility increased and the pair traveled a long distance south, breaking 1.4050 and then re-testing it from below. This level can now be considered resistance and the next potential support is located at 1.3655. However, price last visited the mentioned level in 2009 so we cannot accurately predict how it will react on another touch. The fact that a long distance was covered in a relatively short while makes us believe that some sort of bullish retracement will follow, or at least a period of choppy, sideways movement but the primary trend is clearly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

This week the Pound’s movement will be influenced by three important indexes: Tuesday the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) comes out, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These indexes are derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors and act as leading indicators of economic health. Usually, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. data that comes out during the week.
Reply With Quote
  #88  
Old 07-03-2016, 10:45
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: MAJOR EVENTS AHEAD: ECB EXPECTED TO FURTHER EASE MONETARY POLICY, BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TO TESTIFY ON BREXIT



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Although last week begun on a bearish note, the pair soon started to move to the upside, after a bounce near 1.0800 key support. The U.S. jobs market showed improvement and the effects are likely to be seen this week.


Technical Outlook

On a daily chart the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and touched the resistance at 1.1040. The moving average is not completely broken but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are starting to gain upside momentum, moving out of oversold territory. This suggests that we will probably see more bullish movement, possibly above 1.1100 and into 1.1200 zone. A lot will depend on ECB’s decision regarding rates so we are likely to see choppy, ranging movement until Thursday.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is very slow in terms of economic releases and in fact, apart for the ECB Interest Rate announcement scheduled Thursday, there’s not much action. Monday the Eurogroup Meetings take place, followed Tuesday by the ECOFIN Meetings but usually these meetings are closed to the press so volatility will increase only if some participants talk to journalists during the day. Once the meetings have concluded, formal statements will be released.

Wednesday is a slow day for both the Euro and the US Dollar and Thursday will probably be the most important day of the week as the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference which is known to create a lot of movement on Euro-pairs, especially during the questions-and-answers session. The interest rate is not expected to change but the deposit rate might go further into negative territory. How this will affect the Euro remains to be seen but it could generate huge movement so extra caution is recommended.

The only notable indicator released Friday is the German Final version of the Consumer Price Index but this is the third and last version in the series and usually doesn’t create strong movement.


GBP/USD

The pair had a completely bullish week, creating a low at 1.3835 and bouncing strongly from there. The British economic data released throughout the week was rather disappointing, suggesting that the climb was generated by technical reasons.


Technical Outlook

The current bullish move shows good momentum and is likely to extend into the resistance zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the level at 1.4350. When two or more technical indicators are in close vicinity of one another (in this case the moving average and 1.4350), a confluence zone is formed and usually these zones are tough to break; considering this, we expect price to bounce lower once the said zone is reached. A potential break of the confluence zone will open the door for a move into the zone near 1.4565. Currently the main trend is still bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Pound has a lackluster week ahead, but an important event takes place Tuesday: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Parliamentary Committee with the topic being United Kingdom’s European Union membership. This speech is expected to create strong and maybe irregular moves on Pound related pairs. Caution is recommended!

The British Manufacturing Production is scheduled for release Wednesday. The indicator tracks changes in the overall volume produced by the Manufacturing sector, with better numbers showing increased economic activity and possibly a stronger Pound. Other than this, Friday the British Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The indicator usually creates only mild movement but if the actual value differs substantially from analysts’ forecast, volatility is likely to increase.
Reply With Quote
  #89  
Old 14-03-2016, 14:21
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB DECISION CREATES A PRICE STORM, FED RATE MEETING IS NEXT



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week was “governed” by European Central Bank’s surprising decision to cut the interest rate to 0.00% and the deposit rate to -0.40%. A price storm soon followed, with wild swings and sharp reversals, creating an ambiguous environment.


Technical Outlook

Usually a rate cut weakens the currency and initially the Euro did what it was “supposed” to do but soon after it decided to strengthen and move into 1.1210 resistance. This massive swing is likely to influence this week’s price action and now the downside seems difficult although one can argue that a weak Euro was the ECB’s goal when they decided to cut. If the resistance at 1.1210 is broken early in the week we can expect a move into 1.1375 and even 1.1450 but a down move shouldn’t be overlooked as it still remains a viable option. If this is the case, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can offer a reliable first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow Monday, without any important announcements but Tuesday action picks up with an important U.S. indicator: the Retail Sales. The indicator measures changes in the total volume of sales made through retail outlets and usually has a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher values strengthening it.

Wednesday will probably be the most important day of the week for the greenback as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (a key measure of inflation) comes out and later in the day the Fed will announce their latest rate decision. No change is expected but a press conference will be held by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and a formal statement will be released. All this is likely to generate strong and possibly irregular movement.

Thursday the focus shifts on the Euro for the release of the European Final Consumer Price Index. This version of the CPI is the least important because German inflation data is already released and so is the European CPI Flash Estimate. Friday’s only notable indicator is the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey released by the University of Michigan. It tries to gauge the opinions of consumers about current economic environment and is often indicative of near future retail sales levels because a confident consumer often spends more.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by major economic indicators last week but the ECB decision extended its effects on the pair, generating a bullish week and a move above resistance.


Technical Outlook

The pair remained above 1.4125 after bouncing twice off of it and even moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.4350. This makes the short term bias bullish and opens the door for a touch of 1.4565 zone but we have to note that the pair is still in a downtrend (price is making lower lows and lower highs) and the Stochastic has reached overbought so we cannot rule out a move south. If such a move occurs, the 50 period EMA is the first potential support and a place where the pair could bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

Two major economic releases will affect the Pound this week: the first is the Claimant Count Change released Wednesday, which shows the change in the total number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. The second event is the Bank of England rate announcement, scheduled Thursday and accompanied by a statement which will outline the reasons behind the rate decision. Other than that, the Pound has a slow week but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. events mentioned above.
Reply With Quote
  #90  
Old 21-03-2016, 13:36
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY RESISTANCE AHEAD. US DOLLAR POISED FOR A COMEBACK?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the bullish movement continued, on the back of US Dollar weakness which was mostly generated by the dovish stance of the Fed and their decision to maintain rates unchanged. Previous to their latest meeting the Fed had planned 4 rate hikes during 2016 and now they lowered the expectation to just 2.


Technical Outlook

Price is bouncing at 1.1320 resistance but it’s very possible to see a move into 1.1375. If the pair reaches this mark, a double top is likely to form; this is a bearish pattern which combined with the overbought position of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will generate downward pressure and a potential move into 1.1210 or even lower. Although the latest impulse is bullish, overall price is ranging and this favors a bounce into lower territory but a bullish breakout would invalidate such scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is a slow day but action picks up Tuesday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic and business conditions for the next 6 months. The same day the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out; this is another survey but is based on the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts. Higher numbers than expected for both surveys usually strengthen the Euro.

Wednesday is another lackluster day, followed Thursday by the U.S. Durable Goods orders, an indicator that measures changes in orders placed for goods with a life duration of at least 3 years. Friday most European banks will be closed in observance of Good Friday and the United States release the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product. Although this is the least important version, better numbers can still have a positive impact on the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair bounced strongly at support last week and continued higher although the Band of England maintained the rate unchanged. Most of the bullish movement was generated by the Fed meeting and greenback weakness.


Technical Outlook

The current climb is likely to continue into the zone surrounding 1.4565 but once it gets there we expect a bounce lower. This potential move lower is likely to find support at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average or at 1.4350 but keep in mind the downtrend is severely weakened now so we may see the start of an uptrend or a period of ranging movement. The Stochastic is overbought, favoring a move south but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so the picture painted by the oscillators is blurry.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is slow, with the main event being the British Consumer Price Index scheduled for release Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and usually a higher number is beneficial for the Pound, especially since the current value is considered too low. Thursday the Pound will be affected by the British Retail Sales release and Friday UK banks are closed, celebrating Good Friday. As always, the U.S. events released throughout the week will directly affect the pair’s behavior.
Reply With Quote
  #91  
Old 28-03-2016, 14:17
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EASTER HOLIDAY, AMERICAN NON-FARM PAYROLLS TO TRIGGER ERRATIC MOVEMENT



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: For the entire last week price moved lower at a slow but steady pace. The economic data was mixed and price action was affected by the approaching of the Easter Holiday.


Technical Outlook

The slow bearish grind is likely to continue until 1.1100 is touched but here we expect brief retracements to the upside. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity of the mentioned support level, thus creating a confluence zone that will be hard to break by the bears, so the chances of a move up will increase here. Overall the pair is in a ranging period, without a clear trend and the Daily Stochastic is moving down, coming out of overbought; this increases the chances of an extended bearish move but neither side is in clear control and price will be affected by the Easter Holiday.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday European banks will be closed in celebration of Easter Holiday and overall liquidity will be thin and price action irregular. Tuesday the focus is on the US Dollar for the release of the Consumer Confidence survey and the same day, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech titled Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.

Wednesday the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is the main indicator on the Euro side, while the US Dollar will be affected by a first look into the American employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

Thursday European inflation takes center stage again as the Flash Estimate version of the CPI is released but the most important event of the week takes place Friday: the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. This is widely considered the main gauge of employment in the U.S. and shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. Usually the US Dollar moves strongly when this indicator comes out, so use caution at the time.


GBP/USD

Last week the bears took back control and erased all losses incurred a week before, taking price into the support at 1.4050 and generating a strongly bearish week.


Technical Outlook

Although the long term downtrend is severely weakened, the buyers cannot make significant advances and the pair is not making higher highs, a fact which suggests that we will see moves lower in the near future. The first barrier is represented but the support at 1.4050, followed by the important low at 1.3835, while to the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first potential resistance. The oscillators are rather mixed, slightly biased towards the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead and only a couple of events have the potential to become market movers: Thursday Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference in Tokyo at the Financial Stability Board Plenary meeting. As always when heads of central banks speak publicly, caution is advised because the respective currency may show irregular movement and possibly sharp turns.

Friday the British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, showing the state of the manufacturing sector according to the opinions of purchasing managers from said sector. Better numbers usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is sometimes muted. Throughout the week, the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. indicators, mainly the NFP.
Reply With Quote
  #92  
Old 04-04-2016, 14:05
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BULLS’ STRENGTH FADES, BEARISH PRESSURE BUILDS UP



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The entire last week was bullish and the pair came very close to the resistance at 1.1450, which represents a key level for medium term price action. All this happened despite a higher than expected number of new jobs created in the U.S.


Technical Outlook

The bullish momentum is starting to fade and long wicks start to appear in the upper part of candles. Friday we saw some bearish action triggered by the NFP release but overall, movement was mixed and the gains made by the US Dollar were erased. However, we are likely to see the effects of the encouraging NFP extend throughout this week and we expect the pair to move south, towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is not filled with a lot of economic releases but here are some of the highlights: Tuesday the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI will offer insights into the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers about the state of the economy, excluding the manufacturing industry. Wednesday the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about the reasons that determined the decision to maintain rates unchanged in March; usually this release creates strong volatility if the document contains some hints about the future pace of rate changes.

Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver a speech about the European financial and economic situation at the Portuguese President's Council, while Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will participate in a discussion at the International House, in New York. Both these public appearances can become market movers but can also go mostly overlooked by market participants. Either way, caution should be used. Friday lacks major releases.


GBP/USD

Last week the Pound had a strong start but almost all gains were erased by the US Dollar strength created Friday when the Non-Farm Employment Change report came out.


Technical Outlook

Price action is confined within a triangle pattern and the breakout is likely to determine the next medium term direction. The resistance at 1.4350 was briefly breached last week but as we saw, the greenback is starting to gain back some strength and now the pair is headed towards 1.4050 once again. Also, a higher high has not been printed so our view is bearish-to-neutral until price breaks out of the mentioned triangle.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with the release of the British Construction PMI, followed Tuesday by the Services PMI. Both are surveys of purchasing managers which offer insights into the state of the respective sector and can have a positive impact on the Pound if better numbers are posted. The other important event of the week ahead is scheduled Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of output produced by the manufacturing sector. Same as with the other 2 indicators, a higher number is beneficial for the Pound and as always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
Reply With Quote
  #93  
Old 11-04-2016, 14:03
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: FED HOLDS UNEXPECTED MEETING. BREAKOUTS AHEAD!



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The entire last week price action was incredibly choppy and no advances were made by either side. Overall the pair moved sideways and all directional moves were quickly reversed.


Technical Outlook

The pair was trapped between 1.1450 resistance and 1.1335 support for more than a week and this increases the probability of a breakout in the near future, probably this week. The latest impulse is bullish but from a longer term perspective the pair is ranging, without a clear trend. The oscillators are overbought and 1.1450 is proving to be a strong barrier so we slightly favor a bearish breakout but for that to happen, the first hurdle is the bullish trend line seen in on the chart above. If this line and 1.1335 are broken, we expect a bearish week, with price moving closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the Fed will hold an unexpected Meeting under “Expedited Procedures”, with the main topic being Interest Rates. High volatility is very possible but the actual impact is not known, thus caution is recommended. Wednesday the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of purchases made by consumers at retail outlets. This kind of sales represents a major part of the entire consumer spending and usually a better than expected value is beneficial for the US Dollar.

Thursday we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the greenback, with higher numbers strengthening it. Eurozone’s Final CPI is also released Thursday but this is the least important version of the indicator and usually doesn’t have a tremendous impact; nonetheless, higher numbers can strengthen the Euro.

Friday’s main event is the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that offers insights into the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions; higher numbers show that consumer spending is likely to increase in the future and usually generate greenback strength.


GBP/USD

The British economic data released throughout last week was rather mixed but the Pound weakened against the US Dollar, bouncing lower at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and breaking out of a triangle chart pattern.


Technical Outlook

Although the bears managed to take price outside the triangle chart pattern, the important support at 1.4050 is hindering further advances to the downside. If this level is broken soon, we expect the pair to head into the previous low located at 1.3835 but if another bounce occurs at this area, probably the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the next destination. The oscillators don’t offer a lot of hints about future direction and overall the balance of power is fragile.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the United Kingdom will release the Consumer Price Index, which shows changes in inflation and also has a strong impact on the Pound under usual circumstances; since the current value is considered too low, an increase would be beneficial for the Pound.

The second and last notable event of the week is the Bank of England interest rate decision scheduled Thursday. No change is anticipated for a relatively long period but the announcement can create volatile movement on Pound related pairs. At the same time BoE will release a summary of the Monetary Policy meeting, showing the reasons that determined the rate decision and also a breakdown of the members’ votes on the rate. This cluster of events is likely to generate irregular movement, thus we recommend caution.
Reply With Quote
  #94  
Old 18-04-2016, 14:32
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR TURNS UP THE HEAT. FULL SCALE REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the bears made a strong statement by managing to break the bullish trend line seen on the chart below, after another bounce off of the key resistance at 1.1450, so the pair might be preparing for a deeper move south.


Technical Outlook

This week we expect a continuation of the move started last week but the 50 days Exponential Moving Average represents a strong barrier and also a point where the bulls could step in to try and take back control. Near this zone we have 1.1210 support, a fact which adds more strength to the zone but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving down after being overbought and this favors a continued move down. As you can see, the balance is not heavily shifted towards one side or the other but we slightly favor a move south towards 1.1100. To the upside the levels to watch remain 1.1335 and the key resistance at 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the week is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 investors and analysts regarding the state of the German economy. The survey comes out Tuesday and the same day the U.S. Building Permits are released, offering a look into the health of the American construction sector.

Wednesday is a slow day but action picks up Thursday when the European Central Bank announces the interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi holds a press conference that is known to be a market mover and a reason for increased volatility. Friday the ECOFIN and Eurogroup meetings start, attended by key personalities from the Euro area and the same day the European Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMIs are released; these are leading indicators of economic health focused on the respective sectors and usually have a hefty impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

The pair broke out of the triangle pattern it was in but the bears failed to capitalize and the ranging period is still not over. We expect a real breakout this week but so far the pair is hesitating to pick a side.


Technical Outlook

Price lacks momentum and neither bulls nor bears are in control but the 50 days Exponential Moving Average as well as the previously broken trend line are in close vicinity and here we may get some clues about future movement. Price has already bounced lower once 1.4350 was touched but another bounce lower in the current area will show that price is indeed headed lower; of course, if this happens, 1.4050 will become the main level to break.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify Tuesday before the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London. The event should be treated with caution because the Pound is likely to show irregular movement at the time.

Wednesday the Claimant Count Change comes out, showing changes in the number of people who applied for unemployment related benefits during the previous month. A higher number shows that more people are unemployed and has a negative influence on the Pound, weakening it. The last important event of the week is the release of the British Retail Sales scheduled Thursday. Higher numbers for this indicator usually bring Pound strength but the impact is sometimes mild.
Reply With Quote
  #95  
Old 25-04-2016, 15:07
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE US DOLLAR BUCKLES UP FOR STRONG MOVES. IT’S FED RATE WEEK!



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week ended on a bearish note, even if the beginning belonged to the bulls, who managed to take price briefly above 1.1335. The ECB kept rates unchanged and during the press conference, ECB President Draghi did not make any statements that can affect long term movement.


Technical Outlook

The pair remained below the broken bullish trend line and the move above 1.1335 was reversed; now we see increased bearish pressure as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is threatened. This technical indicator combined with the horizontal support at 1.1210 creates a confluence zone that will be difficult to break by the bears, but on the other hand, a break would show that the balance of power is clearly favoring the short side. If this occurs, we expect to see a touch of 1.1100 next. For now, 1.1335 is the first resistance, followed by 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the upcoming week is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses that asks respondents to give their opinion regarding the state of the economy and business conditions. The release is scheduled Monday and is followed Tuesday by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. The same day an American Consumer Confidence survey comes out and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday it’s the most important day of the week as the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate; also a FOMC Statement will be released, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision. Although no rate change is expected, this release has a strong impact most of the times so caution is recommended.

Thursday’s highlights are the release of the German Preliminary CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation and on the US Dollar side we have the Advance Gross Domestic Product; this is the first version of the GDP and tends to be the most important so we might see significant moves for the greenback. Friday’s highpoint is the release of the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate which is a key gauge of inflation across the European Union.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a strong week against the US Dollar and took the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in a fast move; however, bullish movement slowed down for the end of the week.


Technical Outlook

The pair finished last week above 1.4350 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this makes the short term bias bullish. That being said, we expect a touch of 1.4500 resistance but keep in mind that overall the pair lacks a clear trend and direction changes often, so once (or if) 1.4500 is touched, we expect to see a move south. Probably by that time the two oscillators will both become overbought and this will add to the chances of a drop. If this is the case, the moving average will become the first lower target.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is scarce in economic releases that can affect the Pound, with the most noteworthy being the Preliminary version of the British Gross Domestic Product scheduled for release Wednesday and the Net Lending to Individuals scheduled Friday. The former indicator is considered the most important gauge on an economy’s overall performance, while the latter shows changes in the value of loans issued to consumers. Higher numbers for these indicators usually bring Pound strength and the opposite is true for lower numbers. As always, throughout the week the pair’s movement will be directly influenced by the U.S. events mentioned earlier.
Reply With Quote
  #96  
Old 02-05-2016, 07:10
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY RESISTANCE THREATENED, NFP WEEK AND A RECOVERING US DOLLAR



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged and the US Dollar weakened, allowing the pair to complete a perfect bounce at support. Resistance is still holding but momentum belongs to the bulls.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.1210 support and the fact that price is still above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average shows that there is still underlying strength on the bullish side. However, 1.1450 has acted as strong resistance in the past and the pair ended last week right on this level so we may see a bearish bounce here. The oscillators offer mixed signals, with the Relative Strength Index approaching overbought and the Stochastic just exiting oversold, so probably the next direction will be decided by the way price behaves at the key level of 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with a speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, titled “The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia”. We don’t know how the markets will receive this event and what the impact will be but caution should be used nonetheless.

Tuesday is a slow day and Wednesday we get an early look into U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and government.

Thursday German and French banks are closed in observance of Ascension Day so we don’t have any major releases, while Friday will probably be the most active day of the week as the U.S. Non-Farm Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) report comes out, showing the change in the number of employed people during the last month, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important U.S. jobs data and the impact on the US Dollar is usually huge, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against all of its major counterparts last week and the Pound was no exception. Key resistance is currently being tested.


Technical Outlook

The level at 1.4650 is a major hurdle in front of rising prices and has acted as strong resistance in the past. A break would be a great victory for the bulls but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both entering overbought on a daily chart. This means that future bullish advances will be more difficult to achieve and the chances of a bearish bounce will increase. A lot will depend on the U.S. jobs data and until that is released, we expect ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday UK banks are closed in observance of May Day and no major announcements are made; the first indicator of the week is the Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Tuesday and followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI. Thursday the Services PMI comes out and this is the last important economic indicator of the week, for the Pound. All three indicators are surveys of purchasing managers from their respective sectors and act as leading indicators of economic health. Higher numbers usually benefit the Pound but often the impact is mild. Of course, the U.S. jobs data will be a market mover for the pair.
Reply With Quote
  #97  
Old 09-05-2016, 14:14
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: UPTREND STILL INTACT, US DOLLAR FIGHTS FOR CONTROL



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week started on a strong bullish note, with price spiking above 1.1450 resistance before making a sharp turn near 1.1615. The U.S. jobs report disappointed but despite this fact, the bulls didn’t manage to take back control.


Technical Outlook

Even if the latest move is down, we must note that the pair is making higher highs and is trading above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average so we are still in a bullish market. This suggests that once support is reached, we may see a bullish bounce and the first place where this can happen is the 1.1335 level; by the time price reaches it, probably the moving average will climb and will be in close vicinity, thus creating a confluence zone that will increase the probability of a move north. On the other hand, a break of this zone would suggest that price is headed towards the zone around 1.1200, suggesting that the uptrend is coming to an end.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead lacks major fundamental events, especially in its first part. It is worth mentioning that Monday the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by key figures from the political and financial scene, but Tuesday and Wednesday are slow days, with nothing important on the calendar. Thursday the U.S. Unemployment Claims will reveal the number of persons who applied for unemployment related aid, but this indicator is released each week and that’s why its impact tends to be mild; however, a higher number can weaken the US Dollar to some extent.

Friday is the busiest day of the week, with the release of the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product and also the U.S. Retail Sales. Both are key indicators of economic health and can strongly affect the respective currency, with higher numbers being beneficial. The same day the University of Michigan will release a Consumer Sentiment survey, which is indicative of future consumer spending levels.


GBP/USD

British economic data released throughout last week failed to meet expectations and this played an important role in the bearish action and the move below 1.4500.


Technical Outlook

The strong bounce at 1.4765 combined with the overbought position of both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index makes us anticipate further downside movement. The first potential barrier in front of falling prices is the 50 days Exponential Moving Average but if this line is broken, we expect to see a touch of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. To the upside, 1.4500 is the first potential resistance, followed by 1.4650 but our bias is bearish for the week ahead.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, showing changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector but the most important day of the week will be Thursday when the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report, the interest rate decision and a Rate Statement. The inflation report shows BoE’s projection regarding economic growth and inflation for the next 2 years and later in the day Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the contents of the report. As for the rate, this is not expected to change but volatility is usually generated by the event.
Reply With Quote
  #98  
Old 16-05-2016, 12:28
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE US DOLLAR STRIKES BACK, BEARS THREATEN THE UPTREND



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The first days of last week were slow and choppy but action picked up later in the week when the bears managed to break support on the back of better than expected U.S. economic data. The uptrend is still intact but is severely weakened.


Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.1335 support and is now struggling to move below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Last time price encountered this form of support, it bounced higher, so the same scenario may apply now, but a bearish break will put control in the hands of the sellers. If this happens, we will probably see a touch of 1.1210, followed by a small retracement to the upside; on the other hand, a bounce higher and a fast move above 1.1335 would make 1.1450 the target for the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, with Swiss, French and German banks being closed in observance of Whit Monday; no important indicators are released by the United States either. Tuesday action picks up with the release of the always important U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation. Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting, offering insights into the reasons that generated the rate votes. More importantly, this document may contain hints about the pace of future rate changes and if this is the case, the US Dollar is likely to have a strong response.

Thursday the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index coms out, showing the state of the manufacturing sector according to the opinions of surveyed manufacturers and Friday is another slow day, with the U.S. Existing Home Sales numbers being the only notable event.


GBP/USD

The first 4 days of the week that just ended were incredibly choppy and all moves in one direction were quickly reversed. It seems the pair is now finally picking a direction but support is still in the way.


Technical Outlook

The pair finished the week below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.4350 is still intact; the Stochastic is entering oversold but the Relative Strength Index still has a long way to go and all this paints a blurry picture, with reasons for price to go up as well as down. We slightly favor the sell side because momentum is finally starting to pick up after a few days of sideways movement, so we anticipate a break of 1.4350 and a touch of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above.

Fundamental Outlook

The first British event of the week is scheduled Tuesday: the Consumer Price Index which measures changes in the price that consumers pay for their purchases. It is the main gauge of inflation and usually creates a strong impact, with higher numbers being beneficial for the Pound. Wednesday we take a look into the unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who applied for unemployment related help. Higher numbers are usually detrimental for the Pound, showing a possible decrease in economic activity and consumer spending.

The last major event of the week is the release of the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday. This kind of sales represents a big chunk of the entire consumer spending which in turn accounts for a major part of the entire economic activity, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.
Reply With Quote
  #99  
Old 23-05-2016, 13:15
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR ADVANCES ON THE BACK OF FED RATE HIKE OPTIMISM



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The most important day of last week was Wednesday when the FOMC Minutes came out, showing optimism about a potential rate hike in June. This strengthened the US Dollar, driving the pair below support and generating an overall bearish week.


Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken decisively last week and this could be the beginning of an extended period of bearish movement. Currently price is trying to break the barrier at 1.1210 and if it manages to do so, we expect it to drop towards 1.1060; however, the oversold condition of the Stochastic plays against this scenario and may trigger a bullish retracement (the RSI is also close to oversold). Our bias for the week is bearish as long as the pair remains below the 50 days EMA but we expect some bullish retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event on the calendar is the release Monday of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers that asks respondents to give their opinion on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Tuesday we have the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (a survey of about 275 German analysts and professional investors regarding their 6 month outlook for Germany) and the same day the Eurogroup Meetings start.

Wednesday is another day for surveys, with the highlight being the German IFO Business Climate. It has a large sample of about 7,000 businesses and this makes it a high impact indicator but usually the effect is limited if the actual number matches analysts’ expectations. Thursday we turn to the U.S for the release of the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years) and Friday we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product, which is considered the main gauge of overall economic performance.


GBP/USD

The Pound got a boost from a poll that showed that a Brexit is less probable and that the majority of surveyed people would rather remain in the EU. Most of the gains were erased Friday when the greenback strengthened.


Technical Outlook

The pair bounced almost perfectly at 1.4650 and now the bears are struggling to break the support at 1.4500. If they manage to do so, we expect a move into 1.4350; a break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above would suggest that the pair will enter a period of bearish movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is close to the mentioned support zones, adding strength to them and making a break more important.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead, with only two notable releases: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers come out and Thursday the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released. The former indicator shows the difference between spending and income for public corporations and government during the previous month while the GDP is the main gauge of economic performance, thus it has a strong impact on the currency.
Reply With Quote
  #100  
Old 30-05-2016, 13:59
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT, U.S. JOBS DATA – THE INGREDIENTS FOR WILD SWINGS



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The greenback won the battle against the Euro last week, breaking support and the bullish trend line seen on the chart below. The economic calendar didn’t reveal major events but optimism about a June rate hike kicked in, helping the US Dollar.


Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.1210, the pair returned to re-test it from below, bouncing lower and thus confirming the level as resistance. The bullish trend line is also broken and the pair is below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, so all things point towards an extended move south but as we can note, the Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is close to its 30 level. This fact increases the chances of a bullish bounce but we expect 1.1060 to be tested this week and there we will probably see a move higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic week opens Monday with the release of the German Consumer Price Index, an always important gauge of inflation that can positively affect the Euro if it shows higher numbers; on the US Dollar side, banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day so we don’t have any major releases. Tuesday the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate comes out, followed later in the day by the U.S. Consumer Confidence, a survey of about 5,000 households that tries to gauge the overall opinion about job availability, business conditions and economic environment.

Wednesday is a slow day for the Euro, while the greenback will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI. This is another survey that asks purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector to give their assessment about the overall performance of said sector. Thursday will be the busiest day for the Euro as the ECB announces the interest rate and ECB President Mario Draghi holds his usual press conference. Although the rate is not expected to change, volatility is likely to surge during the press conference, so as always, caution is recommended.

Friday is the greenback’s turn to steal the spotlight with the release of the Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-Farm Payrolls). This indicator shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and is considered the most important jobs related indicator for the United States. Almost always this release is accompanied by strong movement and increased volatility.


GBP/USD

Last week was overall bullish but the Pound gave back some of the early gains later in the week. The move up seems exhausted now as the pair failed to clearly threaten key resistance.


Technical Outlook

The bullish break of 1.4650 resistance (seen earlier in the week) did not take price into 1.4765 as expected and instead the pair returned below the broken level. This shows that the bulls are starting to fade away and that we will probably see a move into 1.4500 this week; the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is close to 1.4500, thus creating a confluence zone that will be difficult to break but if the bears manage to do that, the pair is likely to start a new short term downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday UK banks will be closed, celebrating Spring Bank Holiday so the economic calendar is empty. The rest of the week is filled with surveys: Wednesday the Manufacturing PMI comes out, followed Thursday by the Construction PMI and Friday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors and usually, higher numbers trigger Pound strength. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. events scheduled throughout the week.
Reply With Quote
  #101  
Old 06-06-2016, 08:23
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NFP: THE AFTERMATH



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The first four days of last week were slow and without major developments but all that changed once the NFP numbers came out, showing a disappointing employment situation in the United States and weakening the US Dollar.


Technical Outlook

Price bounced at a bullish trend line and is now trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the oscillators are moving out of oversold with strong bullish momentum and the U.S. jobs report weakened the greenback severely. All this points to an extended climb that may very well take the pair into the zone around 1.1450, so our bias is bullish for the week ahead but we also expect smaller moves to the downside, mainly because usually after such a strong climb, price retraces a bit.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead opens Monday with a speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen; she will speak at a luncheon in Philadelphia and will touch the topics of monetary policy and economic outlook so we expect a strong influence on the US Dollar. Tuesday and Wednesday are slow days, without major releases while Thursday’s only notable event is a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at the Brussels Economic Forum.

The lackluster economic scene extends into Friday when the only major release is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. About 500 consumers are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions and usually a higher reading suggests that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future; this in turn means that economic activity will pick up, bringing a stronger greenback.


GBP/USD

Before the NFP data was released, the Pound was losing the battle against the US Dollar, weakening throughout the week. Some of the losses were erased when the U.S. employment data came out but the week still finished lower than it started.


Technical Outlook

The bullish trend line seen on the chart above still acts as good support as seen from last week’s price action and now the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Although these are signs that price may be headed higher, the bulls clearly showed weakness last week and could only make advances on the back of much worse than expected U.S. economic data. Both currencies are weak at the moment but as long as the pair stays above the trend line, we expect further upside, with 1.4650 as target.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the Euro and Dollar, the Pound has a slow week ahead, with the only notable release being the Manufacturing Production, scheduled Wednesday. The indicator shows changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector but usually has a mild impact on the Pound if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast or comes very close. Nonetheless, higher numbers are beneficial for the currency.
Reply With Quote
  #102  
Old 13-06-2016, 02:17
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE DREADED BREXIT STRIKES AGAIN



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar made a spectacular comeback during the last 2 days of last week, bounced at resistance and erased most of the losses incurred a week before. Short term momentum favors the bears as the pair moved below the 50 period EMA.


Technical Outlook

We see bearish pressure building up, following the failed attempt to break 1.1400 resistance. Now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but although a daily candle has closed below the line, we cannot deem it a true break just yet. However, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are showing a bearish bias and favor further downside, so for this week we expect a move into 1.1210 and maybe a break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart if the pair can stay below the moving average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slowly, without any major announcements Monday but Tuesday action picks up with the release of an important U.S. indicator: the Retail Sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar because retail sales account for the major part of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of the entire economic activity.

Wednesday we remain on the US Dollar side for the release of the Federal Funds Rate as well as the FOMC Statement which will offer details regarding the rate decision. Analysts don’t expect a rate change but any hints about a near-future hike are likely to trigger strong greenback movement.

Thursday we receive inflation data from the United States in the form of the Consumer Price Index and the week finishes Friday with a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, in Munich. Both these events can have a strong influence on their respective currency so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Bearish pressure on the Pound mounted late last week as polls showed that now more people favor a separation of Britain from the European Union.


Technical Outlook

After the long wicked candle that bounced at 1.4650 resistance, the pair fell through the bullish trend line and the support at 1.4350, setting the stage for an extended period of bearish movement. The strong drop was triggered by the polls we mentioned earlier and since we are less than 2 weeks away from the actual referendum (23 June 2016), we expect more of these polls to come out and to influence the Pound’s direction. Short term control belongs to the bears but caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week for the Pound is the Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday; this is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. Usually the impact is strong, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound.

The Claimant Count Change comes out Wednesday, showing changes in the number of people who ask for unemployment related social help and Thursday will be the busiest day for the Pound as the British Retail Sales come out, as well as the Interest Rate and a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes. Although the rate is not expected to change for a long while, the event still creates volatility and sometimes irregular price action. As always, the U.S. events will have a major impact on the pair’s movement.
Reply With Quote
  #103  
Old 20-06-2016, 03:30
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: TO BREXIT OR NOT TO BREXIT!



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Although the pair showed big swings during the week, it ended the period almost where it started it, showing rejection at the bullish trend line. The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected but mentioned that 2 hikes may come until the end of the year.


Technical Outlook

A massive drop was completely reversed last week and the pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, bouncing at the bullish trend line. This shows that the market is in a state of indecision, probably generated by the approaching of the Brexit referendum. We recommend caution throughout the week because we expect irregular movement and alternating volatility. The latest movement shows bullish pressure so if the buyers can take price above the 50 EMA, we expect a move into 1.1400; on the other hand, a break of the trend line will open the door for a move into 1.1060.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday doesn’t hold major events but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of 275 German investors and professional analysts regarding the state of the economy. The same day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee with the main topic being monetary policy; Wednesday she will again testify on the same topic but this time before the House Financial Services Committee. Both these events have the capability to trigger erratic movement so caution is recommended.

Thursday we focus on the US Dollar for the release of the New Home Sales numbers and Friday we have the German IFO Business Climate (a survey of about 7,000 businesses regarding business conditions), followed later in the day by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. This indicator tracks changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years and usually a higher value shows increased economic activity and tends to strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound was heavily affected last week by the shooting of Jo Cox, a British lawmaker who had a pro-EU stance and the pair finished the week higher after an initial move below support.


Technical Outlook

We saw a strong whipsaw last week, which confirms the fact that price action is heavily influenced by the shaky fundamental environment. Price is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this is a good place for downside movement to resume but a break will probably take the pair into 1.4500 psychological resistance. To the downside, 1.4050 remains a key support but our stance is neutral, considering the nearing of the referendum.

Fundamental Outlook

A huge event takes place this week: the referendum that will decide whether Britain will remain or not in the European Union. It is scheduled for Thursday and is expected to create huge movement and irregular volatility. We recommend choosing other pairs to trade on until things calm down. Other than this, there are no major events on the Pound’s calendar.
Reply With Quote
  #104  
Old 27-06-2016, 08:58
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: A SMALLER EUROPEAN UNION – A BIG BLOW FOR THE EURO AND POUND



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week Britain has decided to leave the European Union and the impact on the market was tremendous. The Euro tumbled for more than 500 pips but the effects of the Brexit are still in play so we may see further declines.


Technical Outlook

The fact that Britain parted ways with the EU weakened both the Pound and the Euro. It’s a historical decision and the markets will continue to be affected by it, especially we’ll hear talks about other EU members leaving or thinking about it. For now the low at 1.0911 represents a key level and to the upside the first major barrier is the recently broken trend line, followed by 1.1335 and 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow, without any major events Monday but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the Final version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product as well as a U.S. Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday we turn our attention to the Euro for the release of the German Prelim Consumer Price Index (main gauge of inflation) and Thursday the focus remains on German economy for the release of the German Retail Sales.

Friday’s only major event is the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their level of confidence regarding overall business conditions.


GBP/USD

Due to Britain’s referendum results, the Pound dropped for almost 1,800 pips against the US Dollar, reaching levels that were last seen in the mid-1980s. The future is just as uncertain for the Pound as is for the United Kingdom and the European Union.


Technical Outlook

Currently price is not driven by the technical aspect but by the reactions of EU leaders and major market participants. The low at 1.3227 is a level not reached since the mid ‘80s and it’s very possible to see another attempt to break it but it’s also very possible to see a move back above 1.3835. Either way, caution is still recommended as the next direction is uncertain and volatility has reached peak levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule a lot of economic indicators for the week ahead but noteworthy is the Current Account, that will be released Thursday and the Manufacturing PMI that will come out Friday. The first indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods, while the second acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the Manufacturing sector. Considering the turmoil generated by Britain leaving the EU, the mentioned events may be overlooked by market participants.
Reply With Quote
  #105  
Old 04-07-2016, 13:32
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: WEEK AHEAD HIGHLIGHTS: BOE FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT, U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair erased some of the losses generated by the Brexit referendum and headed higher, into resistance. Part of this climb was generated by speculation that the Fed will not raise rates in the near future.


Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.1150 is still holding. Upside movement should be contained by the resistance around 1.1200 and by the 50 days EMA so if the pair reaches that zone, we expect downside action to resume. A move above the mentioned zone would invalidate such a scenario and would make the medium term outlook bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the United States celebrate Independence Day and this will likely generate irregular volatility; banks across the US will be closed and no indicators will be released. Tuesday is another slow day, without major releases but Wednesday action picks up with the FOMC Meeting Minutes that will offer details on the latest Fed meeting and possibly hints about future rate direction.

Thursday Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change and Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls come out, showing changes in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. This is widely regarded as the most important jobs related report and almost always its release creates strong movement, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar. It will probably be the week’s main market mover so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair established a new historical low at 1.3120 and retraced higher before dropping again. These are massive swings of more than 400 pips so trading the Pound still carries increased risk.


Technical Outlook

Price was rejected higher at 1.3227 support and after establishing a high at 1.3533, it came back, attempting to break the mentioned support. If this barrier is surpassed earlier in the week, we expect a re-test of 1.3120 and possibly a new low somewhere in the 1.3000 area. A lot will depend on the talks that are still surrounding United Kingdom’s separation from the EU but also on the NFP results that come out later in the week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding overall business conditions in the Construction sector. It will be followed Tuesday by the Services PMI and the BOE Financial Stability Report; also Tuesday BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference about the Report and this may create high volatility on Pound related pairs.

Wednesday no major indicators are released, Thursday the Manufacturing Production numbers come out and the week ends Friday with the Goods Trade Balance, an indicator which shows value differences between imported and exported goods. Occasionally this indicator creates a strong impact but many times it goes overlooked by the market.
Reply With Quote
  #106  
Old 11-07-2016, 13:39
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: MASSIVE SWINGS AHEAD. POTENTIAL BANK OF ENGLAND RATE CUT!



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears again as we witnessed the end of the bullish retracement followed by a move below support. The previous low was not broken and the U.S. NFP triggered irregular movement although the value was better than anticipated.


Technical Outlook

The resistance zone near 1.1150 was tested several times but it proved a barrier too tough to break and the pair soon started to move lower. Price is currently below 1.1060 but the last daily candle shows clear signs of indecision, having long wicks in both its upper and lower parts. Despite this indecision, this week we expect a move into 1.0911 and a potential break of this support. As an alternate scenario, if the pair starts to move north, we expect it to find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the Eurogroup Meetings, attended by central bankers and key political figures from the EU member states and continues with the Final German CPI released Tuesday. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the Final version is the least important so we don’t expect it to be a major market mover.

Wednesday we don’t have anything big on the economic calendar but Thursday action picks up with the release of the American Producer Price Index, which shows the changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services. This indicator can have inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher price paid by consumers.

Friday is the busiest day of the week as three major U.S. indicators are released: the Consumer Price Index, which is a major gauge of inflation, the Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. All three can strongly affect the greenback, with higher numbers being beneficial for the economy.


GBP/USD

The Pound took another blow last week and dropped for 500 pips, reaching a new several decades low at 1.2796.


Technical Outlook

Last week’s drop took the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index in deep oversold territory and this calls for a retracement higher. This potential retracement should find resistance around the 1.3100 mark but the Pound remains a high risk currency and price can shoot through support or resistance without warning. The overall control belongs to the bears, so we favor the short side but the Bank of England is going to announce the interest rate this week and this will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the Inflation Report Hearings take place, with BOE Governor Mark Carney answering questions regarding the Inflation Report. Usually this event creates strong volatility and considering the current situation, we expect it to do the same this time.

Thursday we are preparing for another price storm because the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, which is expected to drop from the current 0.50% to 0.25%. If this comes true, we will possibly see another dip for the pound-dollar pair but nothing is certain and extreme caution is advised. The rate decision will be accompanied by a Monetary Policy Summary which will outline the reasons that stood behind the decision.
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 18-07-2016, 13:31
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB RATE WEEK, DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE TAKES CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair had a pretty indecisive run last week, climbing into resistance and then erasing all gains, dropping to the levels seen in the beginning of the week.


Technical Outlook

The busiest day of last week was Friday when we saw a bearish bounce near the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal resistance at 1.1150. This rejection may trigger an extended drop that will probably reach the low at 1.0911 but for that to happen, the technical and psychological support at 1.1000 needs to be broken. Considering that this week the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, we expect strong movement but the direction will be decided by the events ahead.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable event of the week ahead is scheduled Tuesday: the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey that asks about 275 German analysts and investors to give their opinion about a 6-month economic outlook. The same day the U.S. Building Permits come out, offering information about the state of the construction sector in the United States.

Wednesday is a relatively slow day for the Euro and US Dollar but Thursday we expect strong movement because the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate and President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference. Although the rate is not expected to change, the announcement and the conference almost always create high volatility and possible whipsaws.

The week ends Friday with German Manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index but the indicator often lacks the strength to trigger massive moves.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England was expected to cut the interest rate last week but they didn’t and as a result the Pound strengthened. Some of the gains were erased Friday on the back of better than expected U.S. data.


Technical Outlook

Even before BOE’s decision to hold rates was made public, the pair retraced higher, clearing an oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic. Now it seems like the pair is headed lower, possibly through 1.3120 and towards 1.2800, resuming the bearish bias generated by the British referendum. The geopolitical environment is fragile and may trigger increased volatility and sharp reversals so caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

British inflation data (Consumer Price Index) is released Tuesday, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the number of individuals that asked for unemployment related social benefits during the previous month.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the British Retail Sales, an important indicator that usually has a strong impact on the market, mainly because sales made at retail levels represent a major part of the entire consumer spending.

The last event of the week for the Pound comes out Friday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI, a survey that offers insights into the state of the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health.
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 25-07-2016, 13:42
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS FED DECIDES MONETARY POLICY



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair broke the psychological and technical support at 1.1000, continuing the bearish move started after the bounce at 1.1150. The ECB kept the rate unchanged and President Mario Draghi’s press conference did not move the Euro in a clear direction.


Technical Outlook

The break of 1.1000 will probably bring in additional sellers that will take price into the low at 1.0911 but overall price action is choppy and candles have long wicks, suggesting indecision. The levels to watch are 1.0800 as key support and 1.1150 as resistance but unless this week’s Fed meeting triggers some strong movement, we don’t expect the pair to break either of them. Minor support sits at 1.0911 and minor resistance at 1.1060.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead starts Monday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey that draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate the current level of economic conditions as well as their 6-month outlook. A similar survey but for the U.S. economy is released Tuesday: the Consumer Confidence; this is indicative of future levels of consumer spending and usually had a medium-to-high impact on the US Dollar.

Wednesday is the most important day of the week for the greenback as the Fed will announce their interest rate and will release a statement outlining the reasons behind the decision. No change is expected (currently <0.50%) but the event creates volatility almost always so caution is advised.

Thursday we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index and the economic week ends Friday with the most important version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product – the Advance version. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance so its release is considered a high-impact event.


GBP/USD

Last week we saw mixed movement on the pound-dollar pair, without any substantial developments but overall price action was bearish. Direction was mostly determined by individual economic releases and the pair remained between support and resistance.


Technical Outlook

Price action created support around 1.3070 and considering that the latest impulse is bearish, we expect a break of this level early during this week. Such a break would open the door for a move into the zone around 1.2800 but if instead price bounces at 1.3070, it will probably climb into the zone around 1.3280. The Fed meeting scheduled this week will probably be the deciding factor for medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has only one potential market mover on this week’s calendar: the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled for release Wednesday. Out of the three versions (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final), this one is the first and thus tends to have the biggest impact on the market. As always, the U.S. events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 01-08-2016, 14:14
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX NEWS: EURO GAINS AGAINST THE US DOLLAR, POUND STILL HESITANT AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING DATA



EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar weakened against the Euro and the bulls made a clear break of resistance. This was mostly generated by a disappointing reading posted by the Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product: anticipated 2.6%, actual 1.2%.


Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1150, which acted as strong resistance in the past, is now clearly broken and may turn into support if price returns to test it. Already some rejection is seen around 1.1180 and the oscillators are overbought, so we may see a 30 pip drop into 1.1150 but the short term bias is bullish and price will probably continue towards 1.1240. This view will be strengthened if 1.1150 becomes support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated value of 53.1, almost identical to the previous 53.2. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that asks respondents to give their opinions on overall business conditions and health of the said sector; usually, higher numbers bring strength to the dollar but the impact is not always substantial.


GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average Friday and even tested 1.3280 resistance on the back of a worse than expected U.S. GDP but a break did not occur.


Technical Outlook

Although the latest impulse is bullish and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the picture is blurry until we will see a break of the horizontal channel created by 1.3280 resistance and 1.3070 support. For today, we expect another touch of the moving average and if price moves below it, a touch of 1.3070 zone is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:30 am GMT. Just like the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and usually, higher numbers than the forecast 49.1 generate strength for the Pound.
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 09-08-2016, 06:14
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE US DOLLAR RESUMES ITS ASSAULT, WITH BEARS THREATENING SUPPORT



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The first part of last week was bullish but later on, the US Dollar made a spectacular comeback on the back of better than expected U.S. economic data so the week ended with the bears in control.


Technical Outlook

Price bounced lower near the 1.1200 zone and has now returned below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Early during the week we may see small retracements (better observed on the lower time frames probably) but the momentum belongs to the bears and this is likely to generate a break of 1.1060 en route to 1.1000 psychological zone. The Relative Strength Index is pointing downwards and the Stochastic is about to cross, both agreeing with a move lower and strengthening our bearish bias.

Fundamental Outlook

After a busy week, now things calm down a bit as the week ahead offers a lackluster environment. The first notable event of the week comes Wednesday in the form of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings; the indicator shows the number of job openings, excluding the farming industry and offers a look at future levels of employment but the impact is often mild.

Thursday the US Dollar will be affected by the Unemployment Claims, an indicator that tracks changes in the number of jobless people, but Friday will be the busiest day of the week: on the Euro side we have the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, the main gauge of economic performance and for the US Dollar the Retail Sales will be the main market mover. Later in the day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment, a survey that tries to gauge the overall opinion of consumers regarding economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Last week the Bank of England made the bold decision to cut the interest rate from 0.50% to 0.25% and this stopped bullish momentum, pushing price almost 350 pips lower.


Technical Outlook

The control now belongs to the bears and the support around 1.3070 is threatened. This week we expect a break of this level and then a continuation of the move into lower territory, with the zone around 1.2800 as target. Keep in mind that the horizontal channel created by 1.3280 resistance and 1.3070 support is not clearly broken so we don’t exclude the possibility of bullish movement if 1.3070 cannot be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a slow week ahead, with the only major indicator being the Manufacturing Production released Tuesday. It tracks changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it.
Reply With Quote
  #111  
Old 16-08-2016, 15:11
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATA, FOMC MEETING MINUTES



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair climbed last week and nullified the drop seen a week before. The fundamental scene was quiet until Friday, which was the busiest day of the week but was filled with disappointing U.S. data.


Technical Outlook

Price is currently ranging and deciding the next move but the short term bias is bullish as seen from last week’s action. After failing to break 1.1060, the pair bounced into 1.1210 resistance but rejection is clearly seen here (the last daily candle has a huge upper wick). The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, meaning the balance doesn’t clearly belong to either side, and this combined with the shape of the candle we talked may generate bearish impulse. If this is the case, we expect a drop into 1.1000 zone. A break of 1.1200 zone will open the door for 1.1335 but unless the fundamental side agrees, we don’t expect that resistance to be touched this week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday we don’t have any major announcements on the calendar but Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 275 German professional analysts and investors regarding overall economic conditions) and the more important U.S. Consumer Price Index (CORE version, which tends to have a higher impact). The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and the Fed closely watches it when deciding interest rate levels, thus the impact on the US Dollar is usually strong.

Wednesday the FOMC Meeting Minutes come out, offering insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision and possibly offering hints about future changes, followed Thursday by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of manufacturers in the Philadelphia district. Friday is an uneventful day, without major releases.


GBP/USD

Despite worse than expected U.S. economic data, the Pound continued to depreciate against the US Dollar throughout last week and is now a step closer to historical support.


Technical Outlook

After the break of the horizontal channel created by 1.3280 resistance and 1.3070 support, the pair continued in the direction of the break, as it was anticipated and now it seems headed towards the historical low at 1.2796. Until it gets there, we will probably see some retracements to the upside but we don’t expect 1.3070 to be broken in the process.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week for the British Pound is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. As mentioned before, this is the main gauge of inflation and has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it, given the fact that current inflation is considered too low.

Wednesday we take a look at the U.K.’s employment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the number of unemployed persons. The last important release of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the British Retail Sales; this type of sales represents a major part of the entire economic activity and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. As always the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 22-08-2016, 13:48
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO APPROACHING PRE-BREXIT LEVELS, POUND BOOSTED BY POSITIVE ECONOMIC DATA



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair climbed for over 200 pips, approaching the place where the Brexit move started. A major role was played by the dovish stance of the Fed as revealed by the FOMC Minutes.


Technical Outlook

The bullish move started at 1.0911 has nullified the major part of the Brexit fall but 1.1340 resistance may hinder further upside action. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are overbought, increasing the chances of a bounce lower from here but the current bias is bullish so if 1.1340 can be broken early in the week, we expect a climb into 1.1415 and possibly 1.1450.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is filled with medium-impact indicators and only a few that can really be considered market movers. Monday we don’t have anything on the economic calendar and Tuesday the German Manufacturing PMI will affect the Euro, while the New Home Sales will be the main catalyst for the US Dollar, followed Wednesday by the Existing Home Sales.

Thursday the main focus will be on the German IFO Business Climate, a survey with a huge sample of about 7,000 businesses that asks respondents to give their opinion regarding current business conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The greenback will be influenced by the release of the Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that chows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years.

Friday the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released, showing changes in the total value of services and goods produced by the United States economy and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The exact time is not yet known and will be announced during the week.


GBP/USD

Most of the British economic data that came out last week was better than anticipated (including inflation, jobs and retail sales) and this, coupled with the dovish FOMC Minutes, took the pair above resistance.


Technical Outlook

The current move can be considered just a retracement for the bearish move that took place earlier but 1.3070 resistance was breached so if the bears cannot bring price back below this level, we will probably see a climb into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, if the break of 1.3070 will be short-lived, we expect the pair to move closer to last week’s low at 1.2865.

Fundamental Outlook

Only one major indicator is scheduled this week for the Pound: the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product. This is less important than the Preliminary version which was already released but it still has a high impact on the Pound because it is the main gauge of overall economic performance. The indicator will be released Friday.

U.K. representatives will participate at the Jackson Hole Symposium that starts Thursday so we may see Pound volatility, depending on the matters discussed.
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 29-08-2016, 14:26
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NFP TO ‘MAKE OR BREAK’ THE US DOLLAR RALLY



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears, who managed to bring the pair significantly lower after a bounce at resistance. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was interpreted as positive for the US Dollar and it became the biggest market mover of the week.


Technical Outlook

The pair finished last week right on the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1210, with both oscillators moving down and coming from overbought. The position and direction of the oscillators indicate that the pair will continue to move south but the 50 days EMA and its vicinity to price may be a reason to believe that a move up is next. Early in the week we will probably find out if we are dealing with a bounce or break; the former will likely take the pair back up into 1.1340 and if the latter comes true, we may see advances towards 1.1060.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with a slow Monday, but continues Tuesday with the always important German Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation. The same day the Consumer Confidence survey will affect the US Dollar and Wednesday we take a first look at the American jobs market with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This version is released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and excludes from calculation government jobs and the farming industry.

Thursday is a slow day for the Euro and on the US Dollar side we have the Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers that tries to gauge their opinions regarding the health of the manufacturing sector. Friday will be the busiest day of the week, with the main event being of course the Non-Farm Payrolls, a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed individuals, excluding the farming industry. Usually this release creates high volatility and possibly irregular movement, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After a perfect bounce at resistance, the pair had 2 bearish days that erased most of the Pound gains obtained earlier in the week. The pair still finished higher than it started the week but the balance of power is not heavily tilted towards either side.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3280 combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average created a strong confluence zone that rejected the bullish advance with pin-point accuracy. The move down is likely to extend into the support at 1.3070 and there the next medium term direction will be decided: a break will make 1.2865 the next target, while a bounce higher will open the door for another encounter with 1.3280.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar ahead, with the only notable releases being the Manufacturing PMI and the Construction PMI that come out Thursday and Friday respectively. Both act as leading indicators of economic health, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct and possibly strong impact on the pair.
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 05-09-2016, 13:32
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NFP CREATES MIXED MOVEMENT, FOCUS SHIFTS ON ECB RATE MEETING



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair moved without conviction last week, bouncing above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and between support and resistance. The NFP report showed a worse than expected number, weakening the US Dollar but hawkish comments form a Fed official nullified the move and turned the pair south.


Technical Outlook

After a failed attempt to break 1.1150 early during the week, the pair climbed and pierced the resistance at 1.1240 but then quickly reversed and finished the week on support. The latest impulse is bearish and the fact that despite a disappointing jobs report, the US Dollar is gaining against the Euro, makes us believe that we will see a break of 1.1150 and a move into 1.1060. If the pair doesn’t remain below the 50 period EMA and reverses direction again, the first target is 1.1240, followed by 1.1340.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed Monday, celebrating Labor Day and no major indicators will be released as a result. On the Euro side we don’t have important releases either but the Group of 20 Meetings (G20) will continue (Sunday is the first day) and this may generate volatility.

Tuesday the United States will release the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is less important than the Manufacturing PMI but can still create strong movement if the actual number shows a big difference from the forecast.

Wednesday we have another slow day for both currencies in the pair but Thursday action picks up with the important ECB interest rate announcement, followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference. The rate is expected to remain the same (0.00%) but the day of the release is almost always full of strong moves, especially during Draghi’s press conference. Friday the Eurogroup Meetings start but other than that, we don’t have any other major events.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls scored a major victory last week and closed the week at the highest level since July. The Pound benefited from optimistic economic data while the greenback was hit with some disappointing numbers throughout the week.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3280, which acted as a strong level in the past, was broken last week. This could be a major victory for the bulls, if they manage to keep the pair above the mentioned level and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. During this week we expect the upside to prevail and the pair to move above the minor resistance at 1.3370, towards 1.3500 area but this doesn’t exclude the possibility of smaller moves south, in the form of retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week is the Services PMI, scheduled Monday, a survey that doesn’t always have a strong impact unless the difference between actual and forecast is substantial. The next release is scheduled Wednesday: the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. The same day we have the Inflation Report Hearings; during these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation before the Parliament's Treasury Committee but the impact differs from meeting to meeting.
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 12-09-2016, 11:26
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR MAKES TIMID ADVANCES. U.S. RETAIL SALES, INFLATION DATA ON THIS WEEK’S WATCHLIST



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Early last week the US Dollar was hit with disappointing economic data and this allowed the pair to climb close to 1.1340 resistance. A big portion of the Euro’s gains were erased during Thursday’s ECB press conference but the week still ended higher than it started.


Technical Outlook

The pair is not showing a clear trend and the oscillators are giving mixed signals (Stochastic is moving up, coming out of oversold while the RSI is turning slowly lower) but it’s clear that rejection was present around 1.1340. The daily candle that came close to this resistance has a long upper wick and was followed by a bearish candle that confirmed the sell signal; this makes us anticipate a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If this area will be broken early during the week, we expect a move below 1.1150, otherwise we will probably see another attempt to break 1.1340 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts slow as Monday lacks any major events; Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the same day ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at a ceremony in Trento. We don’t expect his speech to trigger huge moves but caution should be used nonetheless.

Wednesday we have another slow day, followed by a full calendar Thursday when the U.S. Retail Sales are released, as well as the U.S. Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. This indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by the producers will be eventually paid by the consumer, and that’s what makes it important.

Friday we take a look at United States inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The same day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment, a survey that gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current economic conditions.


GBP/USD

The Pound was heavily affected by economic indicators last week and moved according to the readings posted. Better than expected data brought it up in the first part of the week but the second part was disappointing and the Pound weakened.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.3445 took the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and into the support at 1.3280 so we are now dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario that will decide the next medium-to-short term direction. A bounce will make 1.3445 the target for the week, while a break will put the bears in control, making 1.3070 the target. The oscillators are curving downwards, close to overbought and this slightly favors the bears but control doesn’t clearly belong to either side.

Fundamental Outlook


The first important release of the week is the British Consumer Price Index, a key gauge of inflation that shows changes in prices paid by consumers for the products they purchase. The indicator is scheduled Tuesday and is followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count, a report that shows changes in the total number of unemployed people who asked for social aid.

Thursday will be the most important day of the week for the Pound, with the main event being the Bank of England interest rate decision. At the same time a Monetary Policy Summary comes out, detailing the reasons that stood behind the rate decision. Earlier during the day the British Retail Sales are released, so we are in for a busy day but Friday the Pound will have a lackluster economic calendar.
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 19-09-2016, 13:38
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BEARISH BREAKOUTS. THE US DOLLAR REIGNS AGAIN?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar finally had a good week, strengthening against the Euro and breaking the bullish trend line seen on the Daily chart. The main catalyst was the better than expected U.S. Consumer Price Index, released Friday.


Technical Outlook

After a relatively long period of indecision, the pair finally managed to pick a direction and we expect this impulse to continue. Now the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line are broken and this makes the bias bearish but keep in mind that 1.1150 is not clearly broken so there’s still a chance of a bounce here. We favor the short side and a move into the 1.1000 area but if current support holds, we expect another encounter with 1.1240.

Fundamental Outlook

As usual, the first day of the week will be slow in terms of economic releases but action picks up Tuesday with the U.S. Building Permits. More permits means that activity in the construction sector will increase and this usually strengthens the greenback but the impact is not always very high.

Wednesday will be the busiest day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce the interest rate decision and will release a FOMC Statement outlining the reasons that stood behind the rate vote. Soon after the announcement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference during which we expect increased volatility.

Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the European Systemic Risk Board, in Frankfurt and the on the US Dollar side the Existing Home Sales will be the only notable event. The week ends Friday with the release of the German Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which are medium impact indicators but can have a positive effect on the Euro is they show higher numbers than forecast.


GBP/USD

The Pound closed last week at its weakest point since August 17, with Friday being the worst day of the week. The pair dropped more than 250 pips on the back of comments made by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond regarding the willingness to give up Britain’s single-market membership in the European Union in order to achieve immigration restrictions, according to Bloomberg.


Technical Outlook

The key support at 1.3070 was broken by a strong candle and the fundamental scene doesn’t favor the Pound, while the US Dollar benefits from a stronger than expected CPI (inflation data). In the current scenario the fundamentals and the technical aspect point towards the downside for the pair and this makes our bias bearish, anticipating a move into 1.2865 zone.

We don’t expect price to travel in a straight line to get there so it’s very possible to see some sort of bullish retracement, at least on the lower timeframes. The first potential resistance is now 1.3070, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week lacks any major news releases for the Pound so the US Dollar events will hold the headlines. Worth mentioning is the release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing, scheduled Wednesday; the indicator shows the difference between spending and income for public corporations and the government. A number above zero shows deficit so the higher the number the bigger the deficit. This indicator is not known to be a major market mover but it may increase volatility because the week lacks other important indicators.
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 26-09-2016, 13:33
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO STILL IN RANGE-MODE, US DOLLAR FEEBLE AHEAD OF DRAGHI AND YELLEN’S TESTIMONIES



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week we saw some bullish action that nullified the US Dollar gains from a week before but the pair was confined in a relatively small range and movement wasn’t strong.


Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is still flat and the pair reverses all directional moves so we can safely say that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. The first barriers for the pair this week are 1.1240 as resistance and 1.1150 as support; a break of the former will open the door for a touch of 1.1340 while a break of the latter will likely take price into 1.1060. Until the pair breaks one of the two lines, our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts in full force Monday with the release of the German IFO Business Climate (a large survey of about 7,000 businesses) and Mario Draghi’s testimony before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament. The latter event is prone to trigger high volatility and possibly irregular movement so caution is recommended.

Tuesday focus shifts on the US Dollar for the release of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, a survey that asks about 5,000 households to give their opinions on current and future economic conditions. Wednesday Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Committee on Financial Services and another notable release is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that tracks changes in orders for goods with a life expectancy of more than three years. The testimony is of course the more important event of the two and may generate strong US Dollar movement.

Thursday we take a look at the United States Gross Domestic Product (Final version), which is considered the main gauge of overall economic performance and the week finishes Friday with the German Retail Sales and the European Flash Estimate version of the Consumer Price Index.


GBP/USD

The pair showed mixed movement last week, initially dropping, then climbing just to fall again during the last day of the week. Movement has slowed down but the latest impulse is bearish


Technical Outlook

The bulls attempted to take the pair above 1.3070 but after a small climb above the mentioned level, price dropped and now the door is open for a touch of 1.2865 support. The Stochastic is oversold and looks to cross upwards so we will most likely see some bullish movement this week but as long as the pair remains below 1.3070, our bias is bearish for a touch of the support mentioned earlier.

Fundamental Outlook

The week ahead is slow for the Pound as far as economic releases are concerned: the busiest day will be Friday when the Final Gross Domestic Product and the Current Account are released. The former is the main measure of the economy’s health and the latter shows the difference between the value of imported and exported goods and services. Even if there are not a lot of economic releases, this doesn’t mean that the pair will have a slow week in terms of movement and as always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact.
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 03-10-2016, 04:53
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE KICK THE MARKET NEEDS



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair ended another sideways week and so far nothing seems to take it out of its slumber. Friday was the most active day, with the Euro weakening due to a Deutsche Bank possible fine imposed by the U.S. Department of Justice for the sale of mortgage-backed bonds.


Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average continues to move flat and the pair is trapped between 1.1280 resistance and 1.1150 support. Until one of these barriers is broken, price is in range-mode and neither side is in control, so our bias is neutral but we must warn traders that often after a sideways period, the pair tends to breakout strongly in one direction or the other. This week important U.S. data comes out so we expect the mentioned breakout to happen.

Fundamental Outlook

German Unity Day is celebrated Monday, thus German banks will be closed; on the US Dollar side we have the Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers that acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector.

Tuesday is a slow day for the Euro and US Dollar but Wednesday action picks up with a first look at U.S. employment data with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding government jobs and the farming sector.

Thursday is another slow day and Friday the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls come out, showing how many new jobs were created during the previous month. This is widely viewed as the most important jobs related indicator for the United States economy and usually it creates huge movement, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback.


GBP/USD

Similar to the euro-dollar, the pair traded mostly sideways and remained below resistance for the entire last week. The United Kingdom didn’t release important economic indicators and this contributed to the lack of action.


Technical Outlook

The bulls made timid attempts to break 1.3070 resistance but trading volume remained low throughout the week and no major developments took place. The lack of determination from both sides makes our bias neutral but we must note that the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is still moving downwards and price is trading below it; also the resistance at 1.3070 is still holding and all this slightly tilts the balance towards the short side. First minor support is located at 1.2945 (better seen on a 4-hour chart), followed by the more important 1.2865.

Fundamental Outlook

The first three days of the week are reserved for the three PMIs that focus on the health of their respective sectors: Monday the Manufacturing PMI comes out, followed Tuesday by the Construction and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each of the three sectors and usually a higher value for any of them, brings Pound strength.

The last important release of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of output generated by the manufacturing sector. A higher reading is usually beneficial for the Pound but the impact is limited at times.
Reply With Quote
  #119  
Old 10-10-2016, 13:19
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BRUTAL POUND DROP AS BREXIT FEARS MATERIALIZE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Surprisingly, last week’s events did not bring the pair out of its range. Support was breached but the bears didn’t follow through and a worse than expected NFP brought the pair back up, close to the opening price of the week.


Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1150 appeared broken but the pair decided to do a quick turn and erased the drop. Indecision continues to rule over this pair and now the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is the first point of interest: a move above it will take price into 1.1280 and possibly 1.1340 but a bounce here will mean that 1.1150 will be broken soon. Keep in mind that the moving average is flat and price bounces between support and resistance; a strong breakout is expected.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday the banks in the United States will be closed, in observance of Columbus Day and no major indicators will be released for neither one of the currencies in the pair. Tuesday action picks up with the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey but other than that we don’t have anything important on the calendar.

Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the rate vote, and more importantly, the document can contain hints about the next rate hike. If this is the case, then the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction.

Thursday we don’t have anything important on the calendar and the trading week ends Friday with the release of the U.S. Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Both are considered high-impact indicators and can strengthen the greenback in case of higher than anticipated numbers.


GBP/USD

The Pound experienced a so called “flash crash” late last week and the pair posted a tremendous drop. Speculation attributes the drop to fears about a hard Brexit early next year but the exact reason is not clearly known.


Technical Outlook

The pair is currently “high risk” and extreme caution should be used if trading it. Although most of the losses were erased, the possibility of another drop is high as the Pound is vulnerable and prone to sudden moves. Potential resistance sits around 1.2800 but the technical aspect will be overshadowed this week by unscheduled speeches (if any) of British politicians and/or representatives of the Bank of England.

Fundamental Outlook

The entire week is slow for the Pound as far as economic releases are concerned. However, we expect strong movement given last week’s tremendous drop and increased volatility.
Reply With Quote
  #120  
Old 17-10-2016, 13:25
GDMFX's Avatar
Level V Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 1,688
Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO WEAKENS, FOCUS SHIFTS ON ECB INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT



EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Finally the pair started to pick up some speed last week and now the bears are in control. The US Dollar strength was partly due to the FOMC hinting towards a rate hike later this year and partly due to better than expected U.S. economic data.


Technical Outlook

Price moved below the previous support at 1.1060 and then re-tested it, turning it into resistance so we expect this level to reject future moves up. The bias is bearish for the week, with the first important target being the support at 1.0910; there’s a minor hurdle at 1.0955 and we expect this to be broken during the early days of the week. The oscillators are approaching oversold and this increases the chance of a bounce into the previously mentioned resistance but once this potential retracement is complete, downside movement is likely to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens with a light calendar and action picks up Tuesday when the United States will release their Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation. Current levels are considered too low, so a higher than anticipated value will likely strengthen the US Dollar.

Wednesday the U.S. Building Permits come out, offering insights into construction sector activity (a permit is the first step required before starting to build). Thursday the European Central Bank takes center stage with the Interest Rate announcement and the press conference that follows shortly. No change is expected for the rate but almost always this event generates strong and often irregular movement. The same day the EU Economic Summit begins and will continue Friday, when no other major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken against the US Dollar last week and is currently surrounded by a negative sentiment which is likely to bring further downside movement.


Technical Outlook

The pair created a new intermediate low at 1.2090 and then started to move almost sideways. Resistance is located at 1.2480 but we don’t expect the pair to move that high and instead, we anticipate a break of 1.2090 support. The Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory and this may trigger some moves north but overall the pair is still on shaky ground, prone to sudden moves.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the first important British event of the week comes out: the Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation that shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the products they purchase. Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

Wednesday we take a look at UK’s unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change (shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related social help) and the last important release of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday. UK representatives will participate in the EU Economic Summit and this may generate volatility on the Pound.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily GDMFX Forex Analysis 3 20-06-2014 15:58
Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily GDMFX Forex Analysis 0 16-06-2014 13:44
GDMFX - Technical News GDMFX Forex Analysis 1 18-02-2014 05:21
GDMFX - Weekly Commentary GDMFX Forex Analysis 1 08-01-2014 14:10


All times are GMT. The time now is 01:35.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.