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  #21  
Old 24-11-2014, 15:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CONCERNS OF LOW INFLATION WEAKEN THE EURO



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair had mixed up and down movement until the final trading day when Mario Draghi’s speech triggered substantial Euro weakness and a sharp drop. The ECB President commented that inflation expectations reached “excessively low” levels and the market impact was immediately seen.


Technical Outlook
For this week we expect further downside movement generated by Mario Draghi’s comments and by the overall negative sentiment surrounding the Euro. The first lower barrier is located at 1.2360, followed by 1.2280 but the Relative Strength Index is moving below its 30 level. This suggests that bullish retracements can occur but in strong trends the indicator can remain oversold or overbought for a long time without price reversing. If the pair starts to move north, the first resistance is located at 1.2620.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event of the day is scheduled Monday: the German IFO Business Climate Survey which is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The American Preliminary Gross Domestic Product will be released Tuesday and because this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, better than expected numbers will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.

Wednesday we have the American Durable Goods Orders and Thursday US Banks will be closed, celebrating Thanksgiving Day. This will generate irregular volume and mixed volatility thus caution is highly recommended. Friday’s main event will be the European CPI release which is the main gauge of inflation. Considering how strong the Euro moves whenever inflation is discussed, this event will probably have high market impact.


GBP/USD
Although the British economy showed a higher CPI and better than expected Retail Sales, the pair just finished another bearish week. However, the downside momentum is fading away and the US Dollar didn’t make significant advances.


Technical Outlook
Last week ended lower than it begun but the weekly candle shows long wicks on both its upper and lower parts. This is a sign of indecision which combined with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index can trigger upside movement. If this is the case, the first resistance is located at 1.5750; if 1.5590 support can be broken, the door will be open for the next level, located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Governor Mark Carney will speak Tuesday in London, at Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee hearing. This is expected to be an event with high market impact so use caution if trading during the speech. The other important event of the week is scheduled Wednesday in the form of the British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product. Although this version is not as important as the Preliminary, it still has the potential to affect the Pound strongly. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #22  
Old 01-12-2014, 13:45
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE YEAR’S FINAL ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION AND NFP RELEASE



EUR/USD
The week that just ended had a bullish bias after bouncing higher off the support at 1.2360. The last two days of the week were affected by the Thanksgiving Holiday and the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the week.


Technical Outlook
The pair is still in a clear downtrend but several warning signs have appeared: a double bottom (which is a bullish pattern) has been printed at 1.2360 and the Relative Strength Index is constantly making higher lows while price is printing lower lows. This is known as bullish divergence and is an indication that price might be heading north. If this will be the case, an important resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average followed by the horizontal level located at 1.2620. Keep in mind that the bears might still push price lower, considering the current downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s main event is the release of the US Manufacturing PMI which is a survey that tries to gauge the level of optimism among purchasing managers, regarding business conditions. Tuesday is a day without notable economic releases but Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is announced; this is a report put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data that comes out two days later.

The most important day of the week for the Euro will be Thursday, when the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual Press Conference. The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.05%) but the Press Conference almost always generates strong movement, depending on Draghi’s attitude.

Friday the US Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing how many new jobs were created in the United States during the previous month. This is considered the most important job related data and the impact on the US Dollar is almost always strong.


GBP/USD
The first part of last week was controlled by the bulls but the last two days belonged to the bears and all previous gains of the Pound were erased. The pair is again trading close to support, with bearish momentum.


Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is showing bullish divergence as the Relative Strength Index is climbing while price is moving lower. This is a sign that price might be reversing but although divergence is present, the trend can continue after a brief retracement. Immediate support is located at 1.5590 followed by 1.5420 and resistance still sits at 1.5750 which was pierced but the bulls didn’t manage to keep price above the level.

Fundamental Outlook
Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the week: the Manufacturing PMI comes out Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These surveys try to gauge optimism in their respective sectors and act as leading indicators of economic health so higher values usually strengthen the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but a change is not expected, so the impact will probably be limited. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s price action during the week.
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  #23  
Old 08-12-2014, 06:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY THE APPROACHING OF THE WINTER HOLIDAYS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The ECB Press Conference and the American Non Farm Payrolls were last week’s high impact events and each one of them strengthened their respective currency. Mario Draghi mentioned the ECB is not going to add further stimulus at their latest meeting and the US Dollar benefited from improved employment data.


Technical Outlook
The latest economic data favors the greenback and the pair’s bearish impulse is likely to continue throughout the week that has just begun. The support at 1.2280 rejected price the first time it was touched last week but now the bears are trying to break it again; if this attempt doesn’t result in a clear break, the pair is likely to enter a ranging period, considering the fact that the Winter Holidays are approaching and volume might drop. A break of 1.2280 would open the door for a move into the next major support located at 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a light week ahead of us in terms of economic data but here are some of the events with potentially high impact: Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place, followed Tuesday by the ECOFIN meetings (attended by finance ministers from the EU member states). Wednesday no major events are scheduled but Thursday will be the busiest day of the week as the ECB will announce the total value of money they will create and use to provide loans to Eurozone banks. The US Retail Sales are released the same day and this can have a strong market impact as sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of overall economic activity.

Friday the focus remains on the United States for the release of the American Producer Price Index, an indicator which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services, This indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The same day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey; this is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a consumer that is confident in economic and financial conditions is likely to spend more.


GBP/USD
The pair ranged for the most part of last week but US employment numbers which came out much better than anticipated, strengthened the US Dollar and helped the bears to finish the week below support.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken during the last day of last week but before we can consider this a true break and a resumption of the downtrend, we need to see a retest from below of the broken level. If it occurs, this retest will most likely be seen on the lower time frame charts like hourly or four hours. From a daily perspective the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so bearish movement can continue. Bullish retracements may find support at 1.5750 while next support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a slow news week ahead. Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, showing the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and the same day, the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is revealed. Although this is just an estimate, the impact can be a big one, considering that GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #24  
Old 15-12-2014, 15:13
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LAST FULL ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was mostly controlled by the bulls after the bears made another attempt to break 1.2280 support. The single bearish day was Thursday when the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated reading of the US Retail Sales.


Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on an upward path until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a daily chart is touched. We expect some bearish movement to happen there as the moving average will probably offer resistance. A move past this line will make 1.2600 the immediate target for the pair, while a bounce lower will take price back into 1.2360 support. The winter holidays are approaching and volume is likely to drop, making price action irregular and harder to anticipate.

Fundamental Outlook
The French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs are released Tuesday, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business and economic conditions. The same day the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released; the indicator is derived from the opinions of German professional investors and analysts regarding economic health and usually has a high impact on the Euro.
Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the US Dollar as the US Consumer Price Index is released, followed later in the day by the Fed Interest Rate which will be accompanied by a FOMC Statement and a FOMC Press Conference. Almost always this cluster of events creates strong moves so caution is recommended.

The German IFO Business Climate, another report focused on economic conditions, is Thursday’s main event while Friday will be a slow day in terms of economic releases.


GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and the pair had a bullish week following a failed attempt to break support. The week was lackluster in terms of economic releases for the Pound.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was tested several times but the bears failed to break it decisively. This shows that we are dealing with a very strong level which may push price higher for a stronger retracement. However, the resistance at 1.5750 is also strong and it can push price lower, especially considering the fact that we are still in a downtrend. If price moves above resistance without any more tests or bounces, it will probably continue upwards for an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday during a Press Conference focused on the BoE Stability Report released earlier the same day. The conference will be followed by the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and holds a great importance to short and medium term price action.

Wednesday the result of the Monetary Policy Committee votes is made public, showing if the members’ stance regarding the interest rate has changed. The Claimant Count Change is released the same day, showing how many people applied for social help related to unemployment. The last important event of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday and as always, the US events will have a strong and direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #25  
Old 22-12-2014, 15:47
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK IS HERE, BRINGING IRREGULAR VOLATILITY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar headed for gains last week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted that next year a rate hike is likely to happen. Support levels were broken after a bounce off of the daily 50 period Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook
Price action is likely to become irregular due to the Christmas Holiday, but the important levels to watch this week are 1.2280 and 1.2360. These levels represented support and the recent break could turn them into resistance if price will climb to touch them again. Price is in a clear downtrend, trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the first major support now sitting at 1.2040 (visible on a weekly chart); however, we don’t believe this level will be touched this week.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected, the week ahead will be governed by the Christmas Holiday and will lack major economic activity. Tuesday is the busiest day of the week, with the focus being on the American Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than three years) and the New Home Sales. Wednesday no major announcements are made while Thursday and Friday most banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Christmas.


GBP/USD
Last week British CPI disappointed while Retail Sales surged and this created mixed price action, with the pair confined between support and resistance.


Technical Outlook
During this month price moved two times below the support at 1.5590 and both times the bulls quickly stepped in, taking the pair above the level. This shows that we are dealing with strong support which may push the pair higher, into the first resistance which is located at 1.5750. On the other hand, a break of 1.5590 followed by a successful re-test will most likely trigger a move towards 1.5420 which is the next support.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approvals which is a leading indicator of demand for the house market and could strengthen the Pound if the value will exceed analysts’ expectations. Other than this, the week is calm and no major indicators are released; Thursday and Friday UK Banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas.
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  #26  
Old 29-12-2014, 12:19
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE WEEK BETWEEN YEARS COMES WITH LOW VOLUME AND SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week price action was heavily influenced by the Christmas Holiday and the market was paused during the 25th of December. All week price suffered from low volume and irregular movement.


Technical Outlook
The irregular price action seen last week is likely to continue this week as the New Year will be the main concern of most traders around the world. The pair is in a downtrend, trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.2280. The first support is located at 1.2040 but probably we won’t see a break this week as the market will be thin for most of the period. Our bias is neutral considering that this week the year changes and all pairs will be affected.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected we have very few economic releases this week; here are the most important: Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinion of about 5,000 American households about current economic conditions, but also their expectations for the near future.

Wednesday German Banks will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Eve and the US Unemployment Claims will be the day’s single notable event. Thursday is the first day of 2015 and the market will be closed, price will come to a stop and no economic indicators will be released, while Friday is another slow day with the only important event being the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.


GBP/USD
Last week was mostly controlled by the bears on the back of disappointing British economic data but soon Christmas made its presence known, volume dropped and the pair came to a stop Thursday, while Friday’s trading session lacked strong movement.


Technical Outlook
Some movement is likely to be seen throughout the week but we don’t expect any substantial advances as the New Year will take center stage and volume will probably remain low. The important levels to watch this week are located at 1.5590 (resistance) 1.5485 (support), while price behavior at the current level (1.5540) will probably determine the next direction. Our bias is neutral for this pair as well, and we expect to see irregular movement; keep in mind that Thursday the market will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook
The only noteworthy British release is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled Friday. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers focused on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
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  #27  
Old 05-01-2015, 13:15
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE DOLLAR REACHES NEW HIGHS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the Euro weakened the most in more than 4 years against the US Dollar; a big role in the drop was played by the fact that the ECB talked about large scale bond purchases and ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that he cannot rule our deflation.


Technical Outlook
We saw another bearish week as the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart moved below the 30 level and this shows an overextended condition, signaling that a retracement is likely to occur. The same condition is shown by the Stochastic indicator (11,6,6) which is moving well below the 20 level. First support is located at 1.1875 (better seen on a Weekly chart) but during the week we expect pullbacks above 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Preliminary CPI is released Monday, showing the state of German inflation which is an important part of European inflation. This will be followed Wednesday by the European CPI Flash Estimate which offers an early look into European inflation; since the ECB is struggling to raise inflation levels, these releases will have a high impact on the Euro. A privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing) will release the same day the Non Farm Employment Change which is a report that tries to mimic the Government data released 2 days later. Later the same day the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about Fed’s latest meeting.

Friday the most important U.S. jobs related data comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and almost always the impact on the Dollar is huge as more jobs are indicative of increased consumer spending in the near future.

GBP/USD
The pair moved substantially lower last week as the British economy showed clear signs of contraction, but also because market participants speculate about a potential U.S. rate increase early in the year.


Technical Outlook
Last week the pair experienced a huge drop and such a move is likely to trigger some sort of bullish reaction in the form of a retracement. This retracement can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.5420 but the first lower target is located at 1.5260 which acted as strong support in the past (better seen on a Weekly chart).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction and Services PMIs are released Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Thursday by the Official Bank Rate. Lately a lot of speculation is surrounding the British interest rate and although a change is not expected, the event is likely to generate strong movement. The last Pound-affecting event of the week is Friday’s Manufacturing Production release which shows the total value of output produced by the British manufacturing sector.
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  #28  
Old 12-01-2015, 12:21
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARS STILL IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE INCREASES



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears on the back of lower inflation numbers posted by the European economy and a hawkish Fed that hinted towards a potential rate hike during the first part of the year.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved below 1.1875, creating the fourth consecutive bearish week. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on a Daily chart and are starting to move upwards, while on a Weekly chart there is still no sign of bullish movement of the two indicators. The most important levels for this week’s price action are 1.1875 and 1.2040 to the upside and the low at 1.1750 followed by 1.1640 to the downside; the picture remains bearish, although retracements are still due.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday and Tuesday are calm days for the Euro and US Dollar as no major indicators are released. Wednesday the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out and the Dollar is likely to be strongly affected as the indicator is the main gauge of consumer spending which in turn is a vital part of the economy.

Thursday the American Producer Price Index is released; this indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications. The same day the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out; this is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district. Friday’s main event is the release of the American Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a hefty impact on the Dollar. The same day, the University of Michigan will release a Preliminary version of their Consumer Sentiment survey.


GBP/USD
The pair remained in a strong downtrend as price moved below support and the bears maintained their control for the fourth week in a row. The British economy posted worse than expected numbers and this contributed to the drop.


Technical Outlook
During the week ahead we expect a move into the recently broken level at 1.5260. A bounce there would make 1.5035 the immediate target, followed by the psychological and technical support at 1.5000. A break of 1.5260 would open the door for a bullish retracement close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
This week lacks major British announcements and the only important indicator comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. data released throughout the week.
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  #29  
Old 12-01-2015, 17:51
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

thanks bro
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  #30  
Old 19-01-2015, 13:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB TO DECIDE THE NEXT DIRECTION OF THE SHARED CURRENCY


EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the markets were shaken by Swiss National Bank’s sudden and unexpected decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor which caped the pair at 1.20. As a result the Swiss Franc appreciated tremendously against its peers and the market showed unprecedented volatility.




Technical Outlook
On Daily and Weekly charts, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are indicating an oversold condition of the pair, but considering the latest developments, the technical side is less important than the fundamental. The next potential support is located at 1.1380 but the pair last visited this level in 2003 so the importance of this level cannot be assessed. As for resistance, the first level of interest is 1.1640, followed by 1.1875. The environment remains strongly bearish, with retracements expected.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday U.S. Banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no major indicators are scheduled. Tuesday’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors regarding their 6-month economic outlook.
Wednesday is a slow day as far as U.S. and European economic releases are concerned but Thursday will probably be the week’s most volatile day due to the ECB Meeting. The interest rate decision will be announced and more importantly, the ECB will announce whether they will start a government-bond buying program or not. The market already expects the ECB to introduce such a stimulus and if this proves wrong, the reaction will be mixed.
Friday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, offering insights into the state of the manufacturing sectors in these countries.

GBP/USD
The Pound – US Dollar pair wasn’t affected strongly by Swiss National Bank’s decision and for the entire week, price action was mixed, without a lot of directional movement.


Technical Outlook
The pair is caped to the upside by 1.5260 resistance and to the downside by 1.5035 support. This week we expect a breakout which could take price into the next support located at 1.4830 or into the resistance offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are hovering near their oversold levels, a fact which could help the bulls if they attempt to break resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday the British Claimant Count Change is released, showing how many people applied for unemployment related welfare. A higher number indicates increased levels of unemployment and is usually detrimental for the currency. The same day the votes on the latest BoE interest rate decision are made public but this event usually creates strong movement only if one or more MPC members have changed their stances regarding the need for a rate adjustment. The final British event of the week is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled Friday. Since sales made at a retail level represent a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers are viewed as beneficial for the currency.
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  #31  
Old 19-01-2015, 16:56
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Quote:
Originally Posted by painofhell View Post
thanks bro
You're most welcome. =)
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  #32  
Old 26-01-2015, 12:57
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED. FURTHER DOWNSIDE ACTION EXPECTED



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the euro suffered great losses against most of its peers as the ECB decided the economy is in need of more stimulus than originally anticipated. The amount they settled on is 60 billion euro/month until the end of 2016.


Technical Outlook
Without a doubt last week was controlled by the bears and this week we expect to see further downside movement. The low at 1.1114 will offer the first potential support while potential resistance sits at 1.1450; both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic show a severe oversold condition on a daily chart and this makes way for some bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook
A German Business Climate survey is released Monday, showing the level of optimism among business owners, regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Tuesday the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are announced, followed later in the day by a Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the greenback as the Fed will announce the interest rate and a FOMC Statement is released, outlining the reasons which influenced the rate decision; it also can contain hints about future monetary policy.

German inflation data comes out Thursday as the Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released. In light of recent events, we might see some changes in inflation numbers and this will translate into strong market moves. Friday the Euro Zone CPI comes out, offering a view on inflation in the entire Euro area. The last event of the week comes out the same day in the form of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product which as we know is an economy’s main gauge of performance and can have a hefty impact on the currency.


GBP/USD
The pair finally broke the horizontal channel inside which it was confined lately as the dollar extended its gains against the British Pound. The break was partly generated by MPC members’ change of stance regarding the interest rate – this time all members voted to keep rates unchanged.


Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.5035 can be sustained by the bears, we consider the next destination to be the support at 1.4830; otherwise the bulls will probably take price into the resistance at 1.5260. If this resistance will be touched, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will contribute to the strength of the level because by the time price climbs, the MA will probably descend in close vicinity of 1.5260, creating a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will announce Monday the number of new Mortgage Approvals, offering insights into the British house market. Tuesday the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and Friday the Net Lending to Individuals is announced, showing the change in the value of loans issued to consumers. The indicator offers hints about future consumer spending and consumer confidence.
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  #33  
Old 02-02-2015, 12:00
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FATE OF THE DOWNTREND DECIDED BY AMERICAN JOBS DATA



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was the first bullish one in a long time. The Fed mentioned patience regarding a potential rate hike and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product disappointed, thus the appeal of the U.S. Dollar somewhat diminished last week.


Technical Outlook
The downtrend is still intact but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) are starting to move upwards, after a long period they’ve spent in oversold area. This suggests that we might see another bullish week with the first target located at 1. 1450 (1.1460), followed by 1.1640. As mentioned before, the downtrend is still intact (although overextended) and this means that another encounter with 1.1100 support zone is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
American manufacturing data is released Monday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI which acts as a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. Tuesday is a slow day for economic releases and Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change comes out, offering hints about the Government-issued data which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday the U.S. Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between the value of imported and exported goods; a negative number means that more goods were imported than exported and this can have a negative impact on the greenback but often this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The week’s most important data comes out Friday: the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change. This is widely considered the most important jobs related indicator and shows how many new jobs were created in the analyzed month. A higher number of jobs suggests a thriving economy and indicates that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound – Dollar pair continued to move in a range last week and although price closed lower than it opened, neither bulls nor bears made significant advances.


Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.5260 resistance and 1.4950 support but price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a downtrend is still in place, although it’s currently stalling. A break of support would make 1.4830 the immediate target and to the upside 1.5260 combined with the 50 period EMA will offer strong resistance; however, the pair’s direction will be strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data scheduled for release this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs come out Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector and usually act as leading indicators of economic health so better values are beneficial for the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event will probably have a small impact. The pair will be directly and strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data.
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  #34  
Old 09-02-2015, 12:42
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESISTANCE TESTED. BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.


Technical Outlook
All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD
The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.


Technical Outlook
The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #35  
Old 16-02-2015, 12:36
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS THE END OF SIDEWAYS MOVEMENT?



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the economic data which came out of the United States was disappointing and this allowed the Euro to climb against the US Dollar but the week had only one day when the pair moved strongly and overall price action was slow.


Technical Outlook
Price is still confined in a tight range created by 1.1300 support and 1.1500 resistance. Considering the fact that last week only one day had decent movement and price was mostly flat, we expect a clean break-out this week but the direction will depend mostly on the fundamental aspect. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average is still angled downwards and price is trading below it but this doesn’t exclude a bullish breakout so for the week ahead keep an eye on 1.1500. A break of this level will probably generate an extended move into 1.1640 while a break of 1.1300 will make 1.1100 the next weekly target.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place and US banks will be closed, celebrating Presidents’ Day so there are increased chances of irregular volatility. Tuesday the main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment which is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts, focused on a 6 month outlook regarding German economic growth.

Wednesday is an important day for the US Dollar as the FOMC Meeting Minutes come out, offering insights into Fed’s latest meeting and possibly hints about future monetary policy direction. Thursday economic releases are scarce, with U.S. Manufacturing data being the only notable indicator, while Friday, France and Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMIs which act as leading indicators of economic health.


GBP/USD
The Bank of England increased economic growth forecasts and this coupled with weak U.S. data generated a rally above resistance. However, for the better part of the week price ranged.


Technical Outlook
The pair moved above 1.5260 resistance and above the 50 day Exponential Moving Average, making the medium-term outlook bullish. We anticipate a climb into 1.5550 resistance zone but a break of this level is less likely considering that the pair is in a clear downtrend. If during the week the Relative Strength Index will reach overbought levels, the chances of bearish moves will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
British inflation data comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index, followed Wednesday by the Claimant Count Change which will show how many people applied for unemployment related social help. The same day the Official Bank Rate votes come out, showing if some of the MPC members changed their stance on the interest rate value. The final British release of the week comes Friday in the form of the Retail Sales; the indicator shows the change in the total value of sales made at retail outlets and is considered a high impact release.
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  #36  
Old 24-02-2015, 00:48
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION DRIVEN BY THE TESTIMONIES OF HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week Greece and the Eurogroup finally found a solution to the debt problem, although it seems to be just a short term fix. Surprisingly enough, the market did not react strongly to the news and the pair didn’t manage to break its range.


Technical Outlook
Monday more discussions related to the Greek debt issue are expected so the market can still become volatile and we recommend caution. The horizontal channel created between 1.1500 and 1.1300 is still the most important technical pattern for short term price action and a breakout is imminent; once this happens, the pair can find support at 1.1100 or resistance at 1.1640. The 50 day Exponential Moving Average will also offer some resistance but considering price’s latest behaviour, if we see a breakout, this could easily move past the EMA. Our view at the moment is neutral anticipating a break of support or resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s important event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate which in a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions. Its large sample is what makes it important and usually triggers a strong impact. Tuesday Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. This is part of a 2-day testimony which will continue Wednesday.

ECB President Mario Draghi will also testify Wednesday before the European Parliament on the ECB Annual Report 2013. Both the testimonies of Yellen and Draghi are considered high-impact events and strong volatility is expected. Thursday the U.S. Consumer Price Index is released, showing fluctuations in inflation and at the same time we will find out the Durable Goods Orders change.

Friday two more important indicators are released: the German CPI and the U.S. Prelim Gross Domestic Product. The former shows the state of German inflation, while the latter is considered the main gauge of U.S. economic performance, thus strong movement is likely to be generated.


GBP/USD
The pair remained above its 50 day Exponential Moving Average but no major advances were made. The strongest moves occurred when British employment data came out better than anticipated but the rest of the week was rather slow.


Technical Outlook
We expect the current move to continue until the zone around 1.1550 is reached, but the bulls seem to lack strength and the Stochastic oscillator has already touched its 80 level, indicating overbought. This could mean that if price crosses the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the downside, it could easily go through the support located around 1.5260, opening the door for an extended move towards 1.4950.Although price action was bullish last week, we favour the downside, especially if 1.5550 is touched and the Relative Strength Index becomes overbought, agreeing with the Stochastic.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approvals Wednesday. The indicator offers insights into the British house market but its impact fluctuates depending on the difference between the anticipated number and the actual one. The Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product is released Thursday showing the anticipated value of the British GDP; although this is an estimated number, the accuracy is usually high and so is the impact on the Pound. Of course, the U. S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #37  
Old 02-03-2015, 13:54
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARS TRY TO RESUME DOWNTREND; OUTCOME DEPENDS ON U.S. EMPLOYMENT AND ECB PRESS CONFERENCE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week we witnessed a long anticipated breakout which took the pair below the support zone created around 1.1270 – 1.1300. The week was filled with testimonies of heads of central banks but Fed Chair Yellen’s speech had the highest impact as it reignited speculation about a rate hike.


Technical Outlook
The consolidation pattern above 1.1270 and below 1.1500 seems to be broken to the downside, a fact which signals a potential resumption of the downtrend. The first bearish target of the week is located at 1.1100 but a move above 1.1270 – 1.1300 would imply the consolidation period is not over and will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a likely bullish target for the week.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event Monday will be the release of the European Consumer Price Index which will offer insights into the state of European inflation which has been a major concern of the ECB for quite a long while. Tuesday the Spanish unemployment numbers are released, while Wednesday we will see the first American jobs related data of the week in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change.

Thursday is a crucial day for the euro as the ECB will announce the interest rate (no change anticipated) and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference which is known to be a huge market mover almost always. Friday the US Dollar will be in the spotlight as the Non Farm Employment Change is released; this is considered the most important jobs related indicator for the U.S. economy as it shows the number of new jobs created during the previous month. Employment levels are tightly correlated with consumer spending and each release has a high impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD
Last week we saw a bullish move which took the pair into resistance but soon after, price bounced lower and this could mean the short term uptrend is over.


Technical Outlook
The latest moves up seem exhausted and the downtrend is ready to resume. Last week the resistance at 1.5550 was tested twice but the bulls failed to take price above this level, a fact which shows lack of strength for the bulls and makes us believe that the next move will find support at 1.5260. Before that can happen, price must move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if this form of support is not surpassed soon, we will most likely see another encounter with 1.5550.

Fundamental Outlook
The first three days of the week are characterized by the release of British Purchasing Managers’ Indexes: Monday we have the Manufacturing PMI, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are all leading indicators of economic health focused on their respective sectors and usually values that exceed expectations are beneficial for the Pound. The last important British event of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the interest rate but since no change is anticipated, the event might go mostly unnoticed unless surprises occur. As always the U.S. events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.
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  #38  
Old 09-03-2015, 12:43
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX NEWS: EUROGROUP MEETINGS TO AFFECT THE EURO AS U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES



EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the Non Farm Payrolls showed an increase to 295K while analysts’ consensus was 240K thus the US Dollar strengthened substantially against the euro and the pair experienced a sharp selloff.


Technical Outlook
Although the bears are in complete control of the pair and 1.1000 support was broken, we expect bullish pullbacks mainly because the current move seems overextended and both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are deep in oversold territory. The main bias is of course bearish so we will probably see further downside movement after brief retracements; 1.0765 is the next potential support level.

Fundamental Outlook
Important political and financial personalities will attend today the Eurogroup Meetings. The Greek bailout will be one of the topics thus euro volatility might be present. Other than this, the fundamental scene is slow and no major economic indicators are released.


GBP/USD
The US Dollar strengthened across the board and the Pound-Dollar pair dropped for more than 200 pips Friday on the back of a strong U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report.


Technical Outlook
The recent strength exhibited by the US Dollar is likely to continue throughout the week but bullish pullbacks are a distinct possibility today; however the extent of these bullish moves should be limited. Notable resistance is located at 1.5200 while support sits at 1.4830 but both levels are far away from current price so we don’t expect either of them to be touched today; support and resistance levels should be identified on lower time frames (i.e. 15 minutes chart) but these are less reliable.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major economic releases scheduled for today so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors.
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  #39  
Old 16-03-2015, 12:03
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. DOLLAR AT HISTORICAL HIGHS – FED INTEREST RATE TAKES CENTER STAGE



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The pair continued to drop throughout last week and so far, there is no real sign of downtrend weakness. The bulls managed to take price higher during one day only but the gains were quickly erased.


Technical Outlook
Profit taking might take price higher this week but the bears are the strongest they have been in many years so we anticipate further downside movement after brief bullish pullbacks. The current level at 1.0500 could not be clearly broken last week but price is likely to surpass it early this week. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold and this might generate retracements that will most likely find resistance on the lower time-frame charts.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt at a finance summit and this could be a reason for sharp moves but the extent of the impact is not fully known, depending on the topics he will discuss.

Tuesday’s main releases are the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and the U.S. Building Permits but Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar, as the Fed Meetings will take center stage. The interest rate is announced (no change anticipated yet), a press conference is held and the FOMC will release Economic Projections and a Statement. This cluster of events is likely to have a strong impact on the greenback, especially because speculation about a rate hike in June is increasing.

Thursday the ECB will announce their targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) and the European Union Economic Summit will begin. Friday no major indicators are scheduled for release.

GBP/USD
The pair printed a new multi-year low last week, the downtrend is renewed and important support was broken. It was another week when the bears were in complete control and price traveled sharply south.


Technical Outlook
The support at 1.4830 was an important barrier and now that it is broken, we expect further downside movement. However, over the last two weeks price traveled very fast and this type of movement is likely to be followed by a consolidation period. We expect a pullback into 1.4830, which is likely to become resistance but a move above it is not out of the question. The overall bias remains strongly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday is the most important day of the week for the Pound: the Bank of England will make public the latest interest rate votes and the Claimant Count Change is released, showing fluctuations in the number of people who ask for unemployment related benefits. The same day the British Annual Budget is released, showing financial objectives but also levels of spending and income for the government. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.
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Old 23-03-2015, 14:02
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DOWNTREND WAVERS. DOLLAR STILL HAS STEAM LEFT.



EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The Dollar lost its appeal last week as the Fed showed concern about American inflation, postponing a potential rate hike. As a result, the entire week was controlled by the bulls and the pair bounced at support.


Technical Outlook
The bullish move which began last week is likely to continue until 1.1000 – 1.1100 zone is reached again. If this new encounter with resistance will coincide with an overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, we expect bearish pressure to increase and price to start downside motion again. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be in close vicinity, it will create a confluence zone which will be hard to break. To the downside, first support is located at 1.0640 followed by the zone around 1.0500.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament on monetary policy. As always, his public appearances are a reason for increased volatility and should be treated with caution. Tuesday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about the state of the manufacturing sector. Lately these surveys have a mild impact on the market but readings that differ a lot from analysts’ consensus might create strong movement.

A more important indicator is released the same day: the U.S. Consumer Price Index. This is one of the most important gauges of inflation and might affect strongly the greenback’s next move. Wednesday we have the German IFO Business climate and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, again two indicators which lost some of their ability to move the market strongly but still, better numbers will strengthen the respective currency.

Thursday lacks major news releases and Friday the U.S. final version of the Gross Domestic Product is released, followed later in the day by a speech delivered by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.


GBP/USD
Although it was a choppy week, price finished it higher, on the back of U.S. Dollar weakness. Also profit taking by traders who were short on the pair, helped the pair in its weekly climb.


Technical Outlook
Although we had a bullish week, this doesn’t mean the downtrend is over and this week we expect the pair to descend into the zone located near 1.4640. Keep in mind that both oscillators are moving out of oversold territory at this suggests that we may see further upside movement. If this is the case, the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.5000 followed by the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Two important British events make this week’s headlines: Tuesday the Consumer Price Index is released, offering information about U.K. inflation and Thursday the Retail Sales numbers come out. The retail sector is one of the most important for an economy and that’s the reason why higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.
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