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  #161  
Old 31-07-2017, 13:47
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS – RECOVERY CATALYST OR ANOTHER BLOW TO A WEAK US DOLLAR?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Despite being overbought, the Euro pushed higher last week and broke 1.1713, which was a level last reached in August 2015. The Fed maintained a target rate of <1.25% and the Rate Statement was perceived as dovish, so the US Dollar remained on the defensive.


Technical Outlook

Last week we saw a perfect re-test from above of the level at 1.1616 (highest price reached in 2016) and also a bullish break of 1.1713 (highest price reached since August 2015). Now 1.1616 is confirmed support and will play an important role in future price action. The pair is in a strong uptrend but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are both overbought on a Daily and even on a Weekly chart, thus warning that retracements may soon follow. To the upside the next notable level is 1.1875 (last reached in 2010) followed by 1.2040 (last reached in 2012) but we don’t expect any of them to be touched this week unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts pretty strong, with the release of the European Flash Estimate CPI and the U.S. Chicago area PMI, both scheduled Monday. Tuesday the main focus will be the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector that acts as a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday we take a first look at the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and Government.

The last event of the week will probably be the most important as well: the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled Friday. Unlike the ADP version, this one is released by the Government and has a bigger impact, being considered the most important gauge of employment in the United States.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher for most of last week, after completing a retracement that found support at 1.2930. Most of the climb was due to US Dollar weakness seen across the board.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3050 rejected rising price several times in the past but now the pair has moved above it for the second time in a short period, so this second break will probably generate additional movement to the north. If 1.3160 resistance is broken, we expect to see a move into 1.3250 but this week both currencies will be affected by major releases and events, so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Tuesday, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. All three are derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and act as leading indicators of optimism and economic health.

Also Thursday, the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report (containing inflation projections for the next 2 years) and will announce the Interest Rate at the same time. Later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Inflation Report and this cluster of events will most likely trigger huge volatility, so caution is recommended.
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  #162  
Old 07-08-2017, 13:22
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: UPTRENDS SHOW WEAKNESS, US DOLLAR IS STAGING A TEMPORARY COMEBACK



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week started in close vicinity of 1.1700 and the pair pushed higher, above 1.1875 but almost the entire climb was nullified Friday after the U.S jobs data came out better than anticipated and strengthened the greenback.


Technical Outlook

Given last week’s strong drop from 1.1875, this level is now confirmed resistance and will play an important role for future price action. The uptrend was overextended for a relatively long period (RSI and Stochastic overbought), so a drop was needed and the U.S. jobs data helped it materialize.

For this week we expect a continuation of the bearish move started Friday, with 1.1600 as target, followed by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. It must be noted that the pair is still in a strong uptrend, so a move back up cannot be ruled out; if this is happens, the first target will be the resistance at 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

We won’t see any notable release for the Euro and US Dollar during the first two days of the week but action picks up a notch Wednesday with the release of the U.S. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. This indicator tracks changes in the price that businesses pay for labor, apart from the farming sector, and acts as a leading indicator of inflation (a higher labor cost will eventually translate into a higher price for goods and services).

Thursday the Euro continues to be unaffected by major economic releases and on the US Dollar side we have the Producer Price Index, which tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and acts as another indicator with inflationary implications (higher producer prices are usually passed on to the consumer).

Friday the focus remains on the US Dollar for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which tracks changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is one of the main gauges of inflation in the United States and usually the release has a high impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

The Pound started to weaken last week after the Bank of England lowered inflation expectations and Governor Mark Carney adopted a dovish stance during his press conference. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls added fuel to the fire, strengthening the US Dollar and driving the pair lower, to finish the week below support.


Technical Outlook

The US Dollar is staging a comeback against its counterparts, on the back of better than expected employment data and after a long period of general weakness. For this week we expect further downside, with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average as first and immediate target, followed by 1.2930 and 1.2850. A bounce at the 50 days EMA would invalidate such a scenario and would switch the momentum in the favour of the bulls once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a very light economic week ahead, with the only notable release being the Manufacturing Production, scheduled Thursday. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and acts as a leading indicator of economic health; its impact is usually high because Manufacturing makes up about 80% of the entire Industrial Production, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.
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  #163  
Old 14-08-2017, 15:02
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: RETRACEMENTS OR REVERSALS? US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS AHEAD OF FOMC MINUTES



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair descended into the area between 1.1713 – 1.1700 but worse than expected U.S. inflation data weakened the US Dollar later in the week, so the pair bounced at support, moving higher.


Technical Outlook

Price is in a strong uptrend and the drop from 1.1875 to 1.1713 is considered a normal retracement after a long period of bullish movement. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, with price making higher highs and higher lows, we consider the uptrend intact and we anticipate another encounter with 1.1875. If this resistance is broken, the next target will become the psychological resistance at 1.2000 (big, round number) but a bearish break of 1.1713 – 1.1700 would hinder this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is a slow economic day for both currencies and Tuesday, French and Italian banks will be closed due to Assumption Day, so we can expect irregular volatility during the European session. The first important release of the week will be the U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled Tuesday.

Wednesday we have the Flash Gross Domestic Product on the Euro side and the US Dollar will be affected later in the day by the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a document that contains the details of the latest FOMC Meeting and reasons for the latest rate vote.

Thursday the U.S. Industrial Production will show changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing, utility and mining sectors. The week ends Friday with the University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of about 500 consumers regarding current and future economic conditions.


GBP/USD

The pair continued to drop after the bounce at 1.3250 resistance but encountered support at 1.2950 and started to move in a range, without clear direction for most of last week.


Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is trapped inside a horizontal channel with 1.3050 as upper limit and 1.2950 as lower limit. Until one of these barriers is broken decisively, our view is neutral and we expect more of the ranging movement seen last week. Once the pair exits the channel, the first lower target will become 1.2850 followed by 1.2770; the upper target will be 1.3250 but such a big move will have to be supported by some positive British economic news.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a busier week than the one before, with three major releases for the Pound. The Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. This is also the main gauge of inflation, so its impact is usually very high.

Wednesday the Average Earnings Index will show changes in price that businesses pay for labor and Thursday the British Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales performed through retail outlets. All these are high-impact indicators that will probably trigger strong movement on the pair.
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  #164  
Old 21-08-2017, 13:50
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: UPTREND WAVERS AS THE US DOLLAR FIGHTS FOR A COMEBACK



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Most of last week’s price action took place around 1.1700 support, which appeared broken several times but the pair returned above it almost immediately. The fundamental scene was pretty dull, and didn’t generate strong moves.


Technical Outlook

The uptrend is weakened now because a lower high was printed last week (1.1840) but support is still holding and the latest candles show long wicks in their lower part, which is a sign of rejection. All this creates a mixed picture, without a clear bias but as long as the pair is trading above 1.1700 – 1.1713 and above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, we expect to see a continuation of the uptrend and a move closer to 1.1875. A break of the mentioned support and a move below the 50 days EMA would be a strong sign that the uptrend is coming to an end.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable release of the week is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled Tuesday. The survey shows the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding the state of the economy for the next 6-months and usually has a medium impact on the currency.

Wednesday the focus remains on the German economy for the release of their Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which are surveys of purchasing managers regarding the health of the respective sectors. Usually the impact is medium but higher numbers show optimism and strengthen the Euro.

Thursday the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will start and will be attended by central bankers, finance ministers and other personalities from around the globe. This event is held annually and can have a significant impact, depending on the matters discussed and the attitude of the speakers.

Friday the US Dollar will be affected by the U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the Jackson Hole Symposium will continue in Wyoming, so this can affect other currencies as well, not only the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index (main gauge of inflation) missed the market consensus of 2.7% and showed a reading of 2.6%. This triggered the biggest move of last week and brought the pair into the support at 1.2850 but the bearish momentum soon faded and support remained intact.


Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, a fact which makes the short-to-medium term outlook bearish. However, we can see that for several days the bears have tried to break 1.2850 support and each time they failed, so this level will be this week’s main “player”. A bearish break will make 1.2770 the immediate target, followed by 1.2630 in the longer run. A bounce at 1.2850 will take the pair into the 50 EMA, followed possibly by 1.3050.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the British Office for National Statistics will release the Public Sector Net Borrowing, which is a report that shows the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations. A higher deficit usually weakens the Pound but the impact is not very high.

Thursday the Second Estimate British Gross Domestic Product is released, showing changes in the total value of goods and services produced by the economy. The GDP usually has a high impact on the currency so we expect to see increased volatility. The same day the Jackson Hole Symposium starts and British representatives will attend so the Pound may be affected.
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  #165  
Old 28-08-2017, 13:12
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR FALTERS AGAIN, NON-FARM PAYROLLS EYED FOR NEXT BIG MOVE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair reached the highest level since January 2015 on the back of a hawkish speech delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Key resistance was broken and now the uptrend is resumed.


Technical Outlook

After a choppy start of the week, price finally broke out and moved above 1.1875, fueled by Draghi’s speech. Also, the market expected Fed Chair Yellen to be more hawkish but her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was disappointing and did not help the US Dollar.

Given the current situation we expect to see a move into the key psychological level at 1.2000, followed possibly by 1.2040, which is a level that last acted as support in 2012 (that’s a long time ago so we don’t know if the pair will react to it). A re-test of the recently broken level (1.1875) is very possible but the overall picture is clearly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable release of the week is the CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled Tuesday. This is a survey of about 5,000 U.S. households that asks respondents to rate the overall level of economic conditions, both current and future. Consumer confidence is an early indicator of consumer spending so a higher number usually strengthens the US Dollar.

Wednesday we take a look at German inflation with the release of the Preliminary German CPI and later in the day the greenback will be affected by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product.

Thursday the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index is released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation but its importance is dimmed by the fact that other EU member states have released inflation data earlier.

Friday the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls come out, showing changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. This is widely considered the most important jobs data in the United States and its impact is always very high so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar had a great start of the week against the Pound, moving the pair into the support at 1.2770 but Yellen’s speech triggered a wave of US Dollar selling across the board and the pair climbed above 1.2850.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2770 support and the break of 1.2850 makes the short term bias bullish, anticipating a move into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2950. The way price behaves in that zone will decide the next direction: a bullish break will make 1.3050 the target and a bounce will probably take the pair back below 1.2850. The oscillators are moving up, coming from the lower levels and this increases the chance of a move into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday British banks will be closed due to Summer Bank Holiday and no economic data will be released. This will most likely affect volatility and price action.

Wednesday the Net Lending to Individuals will show changes in the total credit issued to individuals but the indicator is not known to have a high impact. A more important indicator is released Friday: the Manufacturing PMI. This is a survey of purchasing managers that gauges their opinion regarding the state of the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. As always, the U.S. data released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #166  
Old 04-09-2017, 07:23
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: ECB INTEREST RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE. SHOULD WE EXPECT A SURPRISE FROM DRAGHI?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: After breaking above 1.2000 for the first time since 2015, the bulls failed to continue upside momentum in the latter part of last week and now the pair is trading close to support, ending the week with small losses.


Technical Outlook

The pair is still in a strong uptrend but it seems like it is about to enter a bearish phase. This is signaled by the very long wicks of the last few candles but also by the bearish divergence seen on the Daily chart above: price is making higher highs but the Relative Strength Index is only making lower highs.

This makes us anticipate a drop into the confluence zone created by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the support near 1.1700. On the other hand, a bullish bounce from the current support level (1.1875) will make 1.2000 the first target, followed by last week’s high at 1.2070.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday U.S. banks will be closed, celebrating Labor Day and the Euro will not be affected by important economic data either, so we expect a rather slow and possibly ranging session. The only notable data released Tuesday will be the U.S. Factory Orders (shows changes in the value of orders placed with manufacturers) and Wednesday things remains slow, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI being the only notable release.

Action picks up Thursday when the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate (no change expected – currently 0.00%) and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual press conference, which is known to create high volatility almost always. His attitude and answers will be carefully scrutinized by market participants but sometimes are misinterpreted and that’s when sudden changes of direction occur.

Friday will be another day without major economic releases, so the technical aspect will prevail.


GBP/USD

The pair had a very choppy week, climbing multiple times above 1.2950 resistance and then dropping below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The balance of power shifted several times but the week ended close to where it started.


Technical Outlook

Last week’s price action shows indecision from both sides and offers very little clues about the next direction. Usually, after a period of indecision, price shoots strongly in one direction or the other so we can expect a breakout to be followed by an extended move in that direction. To the upside 1.3050 is the first target and to the downside 1.2770 is key support. Once price reaches one of these targets, we may see pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable release of the week is the British Construction PMI scheduled Monday and followed Tuesday by the Services PMI. Both are surveys of purchasing managers from the respective sectors that act as indicators of optimism, with a medium impact on the Pound.

The last release of the week will be the Manufacturing Production, scheduled Friday. The indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts higher numbers.
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  #167  
Old 11-09-2017, 13:10
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR GOING DOWNHILL. LOOKING TO INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA FOR A BOOST



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The Euro continued to strengthen last week, fueled by a positive ECB outlook regarding economic expansion. The pair breached the previous high and created a new one at 1.2092 but retraced lower in the last day of the week.


Technical Outlook

Price is in a strong uptrend but at the same time, it looks overextended. This suggests that we will likely see a pullback or a consolidation period before the pair can make significant new advances. The first resistance is located at 1.2070, followed by 1.2100 but currently rejection is present (long upper wick of the last candle, RSI shows bearish divergence) so we expect to see a ranging phase, with price spending some time between 1.2000 and 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

The first part of the week will be very slow, without notable releases on either side of the Atlantic. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the first major data release of the week, scheduled Wednesday and action picks up even more Thursday with the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase.

Friday the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out, showing changes in the total value of goods sold through retail outlets and later in the day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that gauges consumers’ opinions about economic conditions. Higher numbers for any of the indicators released throughout the week have the potential to strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar suffered heavy selling last week and was surrounded by an overall negative sentiment, so it weakened against most of its counterparts. The Pound capitalized on this weakness and made substantial advances, taking the pair 300 pips higher.


Technical Outlook

Early in the week we will probably see a touch of the resistance at 1.3250 but soon after, we expect a pullback. The pair has traveled a long distance in a short period of time and this type of price action is usually followed by a retracement. Also, the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought, thus increasing the probability of a move lower. If 1.3250 is surpassed, the next destination will be the long term resistance at 1.3450 but after said pullback will occur.

Fundamental Outlook

Tuesday the British Consumer Price Index will offer information about the state of inflation in the United Kingdom and Wednesday the Average Earnings Index will show changes in the price that employers pay for work. Both these indicators usually have a high impact and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

Thursday will be the busiest day as the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (currently 0.25%, no change expected) and will release a Monetary Policy Summary, outlining the reasons that determined the rate vote. As always, the U.S. data released throughout the week will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #168  
Old 18-09-2017, 15:21
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: POUND BOOSTED BY RATE HIKE SPECULATION, US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AHEAD OF FED MEETING



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: After failing to stay above 1.2070, the EUR/USD dropped and breached 1.1875 support, coming close to the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. The economic scene was calm for the Euro and the data for the US Dollar was mixed, with a better than expected CPI but disappointing Retail Sales.


Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair completed a retracement and is now bouncing at 1.1875 support, aiming for 1.2000 as immediate target. The uptrend is still in place but it has clearly lost some steam, so if the pair doesn’t break 1.2070 decisively this week, we will probably see a drop through 1.1875 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. An important role will be played by the FOMC Meeting scheduled this week and Fed Chair’s press conference that follows.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week is the Final version of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the final version is the last in the series, so its impact is often muted by the earlier data.

Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will show the opinions of about 300 German investors and professional analysts about a 6-month outlook for the economy and on the US Dollar side the Building Permits will be the most notable release.

Wednesday will be the most important day of the week as the FOMC will announce the interest rate, the economic projections and will release a rate Statement outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate outcome and answering journalists’ questions. This is when the US Dollar usually shows huge volatility, so caution is recommended.

Thursday’s only notable event is the U.S. Unemployment Claims and the economic week ends Friday with the German Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which are surveys of optimism among purchasing managers from the respective sectors.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a tremendous week, climbing more than 450 pips on the back of hopes that a rate hike will come sooner than expected. Inflation in the United Kingdom has increased and this boosted expectations that the Bank of England might hike until the end of the year.


Technical Outlook

It’s clear that the Pound is enjoying a positive market sentiment, boosted by rate hike speculation. This is the highest point reached since the Brexit referendum but usually a move like the one seen last week will retrace before continuing higher. The first potential support is located at 1.3450 but this seems like a too distant target, given the Pound strength seen lately. However, we expect to see bearish moves (pullbacks) or a small period of consolidation before a stronger move can take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a very slow economic week ahead, with the only major release being the British Retail Sales scheduled Wednesday. The indicator shows changes in the total value of sales made at retail level and usually has a high impact on the currency because retail sales represent a major part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for a big part of overall economic activity.
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  #169  
Old 25-09-2017, 13:06
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI TESTIFIES. BEWARE OF SUDDEN VOLATILITY SPIKES



EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair moved higher on the back of better than expected numbers for the European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes but the key resistance at 1.2000 pushed the pair lower and erased all gains, so the session ended close to where it started.


Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues for the next move and overall the pair remains in a range, without clear direction. Strong resistance is located at 1.2000 and to the downside, if the pair can move below the 50 EMA, it might drop into 1.1900. Today’s price action will probably be affected by the German Federal Elections that took place Sunday, so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Brussels before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, about monetary developments and the economy. This has the potential to be a high-impact event, so caution is recommended.

The day’s other notable event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses, focused on economic optimism and outlook for the next 6-months. The time of the release is 8:00 am GMT and the expected value is 116.0, a small increase from the previous 115.9.


GBP/USD

British Prime Minister May delivered a speech Friday in Florence, mentioning that the U.K. will be leaving the single market and the customs union. This was the main reasons for the weakening of the Pound but support wasn’t breached.


Technical Outlook

The last 4-hour candle shows a long wick in its lower part, which is a sign of rejection. Also, price is bouncing off of the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal support at 1.3450. Strictly from a technical point of view, all this suggests that price will probably bounce higher but the fundamental side (represented by Prime Minster May’s stance) indicates that lower prices will follow. Look for a break of the confluence zone because if it occurs, more sellers will probably join.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, thus the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.
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  #170  
Old 02-10-2017, 08:31
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR ON SHAKY GROUND AHEAD OF NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: In the early part of last week’s trading session the US Dollar made substantial advances and reached the support at 1.1713. However, some of the greenback’s gains were erased and the pair climbed back into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.


Technical Outlook

The pair is trapped between 1.1713 support and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and this opens up two possible scenarios: if price moves above the 50 EMA, it will probably break through 1.1875 and head closer to 1.2000, trying to resume the uptrend. On the other hand, if the pair bounces lower at the 50 EMA, this will prove that the momentum is shifting towards the short side and will probably generate a break of 1.1713 – 1.1700 and a move closer to 1.1600. From a long term perspective the pair is still in an uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the week will be the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Monday. This is a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of purchasing managers regarding economic and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of optimism, with a medium impact in the greenback.

Tuesday German banks will be closed in celebration of German Unity Day and we don’t have anything major on the US Dollar side either. Wednesday action picks up with a first look at U.S. jobs situation: the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding Government and the farming industry and tries to mimic the NFP which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday is a slow economic day for both the Euro and the US Dollar and the week ends Friday with the most important U.S. employment data: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The report shows changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and is known to be a very strong market mover. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar because higher employment usually leads to increased consumer spending.



GBP/USD

US Dollar strength took the pair below 1.3450 support but momentum soon faded and price remained in a tight range for the rest of the week.


Technical Outlook

For the last 3 days the pair has been bouncing between 1.3350 support and 1.3450 resistance and this type of behaviour usually means that a strong breakout is in the making. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend and is trading above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, so we favour a move up, through 1.3450. If the support at 1.3350 is broken, then the pair will likely move into the 50 days EMA and into the support at 1.3250.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week is the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These are surveys that act as leading indicators of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors but are not known to be strong market movers. However, higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.
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  #171  
Old 09-10-2017, 13:10
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: UNCERTAINTY IN THE U.K. TRIGGERS MASSIVE MOVES TO THE SOUTH. WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE POUND?



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair remained in a relatively tight range, moving slightly below 1.1700 support but failing to break it. The Non-Farm Payrolls showed a disappointing figure, mostly because the storms that hit the U.S. had a bigger impact on the jobs market than anticipated.


Technical Outlook

As long as the bears cannot break the support at 1.1700 and price is trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, the pair is in a range, without momentum to either side. This week we will most likely see a move outside one the two barriers and that will probably decide the next medium term direction. Our bias is mostly neutral until such a break occurs and after the break, the first downside barrier will become 1.1600, while to the upside 1.1875 is the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook


The first two days of the week ahead lack major events on the economic calendar, so price action will be mostly decided by the technical aspect. Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting, a document which contains details about the reasons that influenced the latest rate decision but more importantly, it can contain hints about future increases.

Thursday ECB President Draghi will speak in a panel discussion at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Friday will probably be the busiest day, starting with the U.S. Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Retail Sales. Inflation and sales made at retail levels are some of the main price drivers, so higher numbers for any of those can strengthen the respective currency.

The final release of the week will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD

The pair ended the worst week in a year, dropping more than 350 pips. The move was generated by political uncertainty in the UK (rumors that Prime Minister May will be asked to step down) and worse than expected British economic data.


Technical Outlook

The current bias is definitely bearish, with a strong Dollar and a Pound affected by Brexit fears and political unease. We expect to see further downside movement but a 350 pips move is likely to generate some sort of retracement to the upside, possibly from the current support at 1.3050. If this is the case, we don’t expect price to climb above the 50 days EMA and if that mark is reached, the pair will likely resume downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable indicator for the Pound will be released Tuesday in the form of the British Manufacturing Production, which is a measure of the output generated by manufacturers. The same day the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will release their GDP Estimate; however, this is often overlooked by market participants mostly because it is just an estimate and is not released by the Government. As always, the U.S. economic data will have a direct impact on the pair’s performance.
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  #172  
Old 16-10-2017, 13:09
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: POUND REMAINS JITTERY AS BREXIT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair climbed above the 50 days Exponential Moving Average last week, mostly due to concerns regarding inflation in the United States. However, the resistance at 1.1875 couldn’t be broken and now some rejection is present.


Technical Outlook

After breaking the 50 days EMA, price hit the resistance at 1.1875 and dropped slightly lower but the week ended above the Moving Average. As long as the pair is trading between 1.1875 resistance and 1.1700 support the picture is unclear but early this week we expect to see a break of resistance or immediate support (50 EMA) and the direction of the break will decide the next move. A break of 1.1875 will open the door for 1.2000, while a break of the 50 EMA will probably take the pair into the support at 1.1700.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday we don’t have any important indicators, so the first notable release will be German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled Tuesday. However, this survey has a medium impact so we don’t expect huge volatility at the time.

Wednesday ECB President Draghi will deliver opening remarks in Frankfurt at the ECB conference and on the US Dollar side the U.S. Building Permits will be the only notable release. Thursday the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will affect the US Dollar and the Euro will have a light economic calendar.

Friday the Euro remains unaffected by economic data and on the US Dollar side we have the Existing Home Sales numbers; later in the day, Fed Chair Yellen will speak in Washington DC at the Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture; however, the late hour of the speech may translate into a low impact.


GBP/USD

Last week the pair erased a good chunk of the losses incurred a week before and moved again above 1.3250. The Pound was heavily affected by Brexit negotiations and showed erratic movement in the second part of the week.


Technical Outlook

The pair has broken to the upside the 50 days EMA and the important level at 1.3250. These are bullish signs but as we saw last week, the Pound is very vulnerable to Brexit talks and rumors, so the technical side will be overshadowed if this week we will get more Brexit news.

Strictly from a technical standpoint, the last Daily candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, which is a sign of rejection, so we may see a move below 1.3250 but as long as price is trading above the 50 days EMA, the bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important day of the week ahead will be Tuesday when Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the Treasury Select Committee. The same day the British Consumer Price Index will be released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase; this is the main gauge of inflation and has a high impact on the currency, so we expect to see strong movement.

Wednesday the Average Earnings Index will show changes in the price that employers pay for labor and the last major release of the week is scheduled Thursday: the British Retail Sales, which account for the major part of consumer spending. Overall it’s a busy week for the Pound and this will probably trigger high volatility.
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  #173  
Old 23-10-2017, 12:57
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO PREPARES FOR ECB MEETING, US DOLLAR SHOWS MODEST RECOVERY SIGNS



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the pair remained in a relatively tight range, moving above and below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is flat thus confirming the lack of momentum.


Technical Outlook

The pair spent another week inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1875 resistance and 1.1700 support but Friday we saw that price approached the upper part of the channel and then bounced lower. This may be a sign that we are headed towards 1.1700 once again but overall the pair is range-bound and neither side is in clear control.

Fundamental Outlook

The first day of the week lacks major announcements for any of the two currencies and action picks up Tuesday with the release of the Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the respective sector.

Wednesday’s highlight will be the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years. Thursday will be the most important day of the week for the Euro as the ECB will announce their interest rate and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference, which is known to be a major market mover.

The trading week ends Friday with the release of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is the first version in a series of three and thus tends to have the strongest impact. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance, so higher numbers usually strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD

The pair continued lower after bouncing at 1.3350 resistance, mostly because British inflation data wasn’t as good as some expected and BOE Governor Carney didn’t show a hawkish stance.


Technical Outlook

Price descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which makes the bias bearish but the last daily candle is showing a long wick in its lower part, which is a sign of rejection. If the 50 days EMA and 1.3250 resistance can stop this upwards momentum, then we will probably see a touch of 1.3050 this week, otherwise the pair will be headed for 1.3350.

Fundamental Outlook

Only two notable releases will affect the Pound this week, both scheduled Wednesday: the Preliminary GDP (main gauge of economic performance as mentioned prior) and the Inflation Report Hearings, during which BOE Governor Carney will testify on inflation before Parliament's Treasury Committee. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #174  
Old 30-10-2017, 12:32
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: US DOLLAR AND BRITISH POUND SET FOR HUGE MOVES: NON-FARM PAYROLLS AND BOE POTENTIAL RATE HIKE



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The European currency weakened after ECB President Draghi announced a QE taper on Thursday last week. From 2018 the monthly pace will run at 30 billion Euros, as opposed to the current 60 billion Euros.


Technical Outlook

The rejection at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average followed by the confident break of 1.1700 key support shows that the long term uptrend is coming to an end. The pair is likely to enter a bearish market, with the next support and target located at 1.1450 but it’s also possible to see a bounce higher from the current support and a re-test of the recently broken level at 1.1700. If the level will turn into resistance, rejecting price lower, then the chances of a downtrend will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday and continues Tuesday with the Eurozone CPI. These are the main gauges of inflation but often the German data has a bigger impact because it is released earlier and also because the German economy is one of the most important for the entire Eurozone.

Wednesday the FOMC will release their Rate Statement, announcing the rate decision. There’s no change expected but if the statement contains hints about the next hike, we will most likely see very strong movement. Thursday will be a slower day for the pair but the week ends Friday with the most important U.S. jobs data: the Non-Farm Payrolls, which is a report that shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry. Higher numbers show increased economic activity and indicate that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future, thus strengthening the greenback.


GBP/USD

The pair completed another choppy week, with higher volatility than usual but it still remained between support and resistance and all strong moves in one direction were reversed.


Technical Outlook

The last move is bearish and the US Dollar is picking up pace across the board but for the time being the sellers are having difficulty breaking the support at 1.3050 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average is still flat, indicating that the pair is in range-mode. This week we expect to see another attempt to break the mentioned support, which, if successful will open the door for an extended move lower, with 1.2950 and 1.2850 as targets. Otherwise, the 50 days EMA will become the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release for the Pound is scheduled Wednesday in the form of the British Manufacturing PMI and followed Thursday by the Construction PMI. These are surveys of purchasing managers that ask respondents to rate business conditions in their respective sectors; the impact is moderate but a greater number than expected usually strengthens the currency.

Also Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, which is expected to change from 0.25% to 0.50%. If this does happen, we will most likely see huge movement on all Pound pairs, so caution is strongly advised. The same day the Bank of England will release the Inflation Report containing an outlook for inflation and economic growth for the next 2 years and BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Report.

The final event of the week will be the Services PMI, scheduled Friday but this release will probably be overshadowed by the events that unfold Thursday.
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  #175  
Old 06-11-2017, 14:13
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES, POSSIBLE DOWNTREND DEVELOPS AS THE US DOLLAR GAINS TRACTION



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Despite key economic data being released last week, the pair remained in a relatively tight range, bouncing between 1.1600 support and 1.1700 resistance for the entire week.


Technical Outlook

Price is consolidating between support and resistance, which is a sign that the pair is preparing for a breakout. The latest move is bearish, testing 1.1600, so if the level can be surpassed, we expect to see a move into the next support, located at 1.1450. On the other hand, if the current support rejects price, the immediate target will become the top of last week’s range (1.1700), followed by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. As long as price is trading below 1.1700 and below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with the Eurogroup Meetings, scheduled Monday and continues with the ECOFIN Meetings scheduled Tuesday. These meetings are closed to the press but participants usually speak to journalists during the day and a formal statement is released at the end of each meeting. The impact is usually negligible on the Euro, unless special developments take place.

Wednesday we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar and Thursday’s only notable event is the release of the EU Economic Forecasts, which is a document released by the European Commission, containing an economic outlook for the EU member states for the next 2 years.

Friday U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day and the only important release will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. As you can see, we have a slow week ahead, so the technical aspect will probably take center stage.


GBP/USD

Last week the Bank of England decided to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% but the market expected this hike to be followed by three more next year. However, the Bank’s statement showed that it was planning only two more hikes and this was received as disappointing news, thus weakening the Pound.


Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing the support at 1.3050 but it is still ranging and a clear direction hasn’t yet emerged. The 50 days EMA is also flat, supporting the view that the pair is range-bound. The current level of support (1.3050) will be very important early in the week because a break of it will show that bearish pressure is increasing and that we will probably see a more directional behavior, with 1.2950 as first target.

Fundamental Outlook


Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound has a light economic week ahead, with only 2 notable releases. Thursday the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will release an Estimate version of the British Gross Domestic Product and Friday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out, showing changes in the value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. These indicators are not known to have a high impact on the currency, but if the actual numbers differs a lot form expectations, the effect will increase.
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  #176  
Old 13-11-2017, 13:09
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PAIRS STILL IN LIMBO. LOOKING FORWARD TO INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: In the second part of last week the pair showed some signs of directional movement but overall it is still in a range, bouncing between 1.1600 and 1.1700. The lack of major economic releases contributed to the slow movement.


Technical Outlook

The sellers have tried several times to break 1.1600 support zone in the last period but all attempts have failed and now price is moving north, towards the confluence zone created by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, the resistance at 1.1700 and the bearish trend line seen on the chart above. This confluence zone will be tough to break, considering that lately the pair has been moving very slow, but on the other hand, a break would show that finally the balance is tilting towards one side and that more directional movement will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday will be a slow economic week for the pair but action picks up Tuesday with the release of the Eurozone Flash Gross Domestic Product and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey of about 300 institutional investors and analysts that asks respondents to give a 6-month outlook for the German economy.

Wednesday the focus shifts on the US Dollar for the release of the Consumer Price Index (which is one of the main gauges of inflation) and the Retail Sales, which represent the main part of consumer spending and thus are very important for the currency itself.

Thursday the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will show the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding overall business conditions in the district, and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Building Permits that will offer insights into the construction activity. Apart from a few major releases, we have another slow week ahead, with the technical side taking center stage.


GBP/USD

The Pound retraced higher last week, erasing some of the losses incurred a week before but the pair is still in a range, without a clear trend.


Technical Outlook

After the bounce at 1.3050 support, price moved higher and reached the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is flat, showing that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. For this week we expect to see a breakout of either 1.3250 resistance or 1.3050 support and if that happens, it will probably trigger additional movement in the direction of the break. Until price moves outside one of the two levels, the pair is ranging and we can expect to see further choppiness.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the week will be the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the Pound, so caution is recommended.

Wednesday’s highlight will be the release of the Average Earnings Index, a report that shows changes in the price that employers pay for labor and the final economic data of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the British Retail Sales numbers, which usually have a high impact on the Pound.
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  #177  
Old 20-11-2017, 14:37
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE WEEK AHEAD: ECB’S DRAGHI AND BOE’S CARNEY TESTIFY, U.S. PREPARES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Buying interest around the Euro increased last week and the pair moved above several types of resistance, finishing the week more than 100 pips higher than it started.


Technical Outlook

The bulls managed to break the confluence zone created by 1.1700 resistance, the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the bearish trend line seen on the chart above. This shows that momentum is clearly on the Euro side, so we expect to see a touch of the resistance at 1.1875 early in the week. If the level can be surpassed, the next target will become the key level at 1.2000 but it could take more than a week for the bulls to cover the entire distance. A move below the confluence zone mentioned earlier would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with the double testimony of ECB President Draghi before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. This is likely an event that will generate increased volatility on Euro pairs, so caution is advised.

Tuesday the economic scene will be calm and Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the rate vote. More importantly, if the document offers hints about future rate changes, then we will probably see strong USD movement.

Thursday U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of Thanksgiving Day and on the Euro side the Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the most notable releases. The week finishes Friday with the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey with a large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy, with a bullish bias last week and the pair didn’t manage to break out of the range. British data was mixed, with lower than expected CPI but better employment numbers.


Technical Outlook

The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is bouncing between 1.3050 support and 1.3250 resistance; also, the oscillators are moving without clear momentum and all this is indicative of a ranging market. The last daily candle shows a long wick in its upper part and this increases the probability of a bounce lower but overall trading will remain range-bound until a clear breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3250 followed by 1.3320 as resistance and the lower part of the range is represented by 1.3050.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic week ahead, with only three notable events: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing differences in value between spending and income for government and public companies. The same day, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook

The last release of the week will be the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product scheduled Thursday. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, however this version is not as important as the Preliminary, which was already released.
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  #178  
Old 27-11-2017, 13:00
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO EXPLODES TO THE UPSIDE, CAPITALIZING ON A FRAIL US DOLLAR. KEY RESISTANCE EYED



EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Euro strength combined with US Dollar weakness across the board generated a bullish week and a break of key resistance. The pair has exited the consolidation phase but the long term uptrend has not yet resumed.


Technical Outlook

After breaking the bearish trend line seen on the chart above, the pair consolidated between the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and 1.1875 resistance. Now the consolidation is over and we are dealing with a clear bullish breakout above 1.1875, meaning that the key level at 1.2000 is the pair’s first destination. This is a technical resistance as well as a psychological level (big, round number) and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought, so we expect to see bounces lower if the pair reaches it.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens relatively slow, with nothing major for the Euro for the first two days of the week. For the US Dollar the highlights will be the New Home Sales scheduled Monday and followed Tuesday by the Consumer Confidence survey. These releases are not known to have a huge impact but usually a higher number strengthens the currency.

Wednesday action picks up with the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and has a hefty impact on the shared currency because the German economy is the strongest in the Eurozone. Another important release is the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of overall economic performance and later the same day, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on U.S. economic outlook.

Thursday the European Flash version of the Consumer Price Index will be released and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of purchasing managers that tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic conditions in the Manufacturing sector.


GBP/USD

Broad US Dollar selling was the main reason for last week’s continued climb. The pair has now moved into medium term resistance, which makes it susceptible to a bounce lower.


Technical Outlook

For the last few weeks the pair has traded inside the range created by 1.3320 resistance and 1.3050 support. Currently it’s testing the upper boundary but the last two daily candles are small and with long wicks, showing that bullish momentum is fading, so we may see a bounce that could find support around 1.3250 or even at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a clear break of 1.3320 will increase the probability of a move into 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test Results will come out Tuesday, offering insights into the financial stability of 7 banks and building societies. The same day the Bank of England will release their Financial Stability Report, which assesses the potential risks for the financial system.

The last event of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is a leading indicator of economic health and optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector.
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  #179  
Old 04-12-2017, 08:01
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE LAST MAJOR EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE YEAR


EUR/USD

The US Dollar showed modest gains in the beginning of last week but the pair then climbed on the back of U.S. political turmoil. Overall price action was choppy and characterized by reversals on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The pair is supported by a bullish trend line that will probably push price into the key resistance at 1.2000. On the other hand, if the bears manage to break this trend line, we will most likely see a drop into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided. The pair’s behavior this week will be heavily influenced by the U.S. political scene and by the jobs data released later in the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts off slow, without any major releases scheduled Monday, while Tuesday the only notable economic data will be the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI), which is a survey that shows the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the Services sector.

Wednesday action picks up and we take a first look at United States jobs situation, with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report shows the estimated change in the number of employed people in the U.S., apart from the farming sector and government. A larger number of employed people indicates that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future and this in turn strengthens the currency.

Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference in Frankfurt at the Bank of International Settlements and the economic week will end Friday with the most important U.S. employment data: the Non-Farm Payrolls. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry and has a very strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher numbers strengthen the currency because employment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of overall economic activity.

GBP/USD

Renewed optimism regarding Brexit negotiations took the pair above long term resistance (1.3450), reaching a weekly high at 1.3550. Some rejection was seen during the last day of the week but momentum is still on the buyers’ side.


Technical Outlook

The bias is bullish but the pair is capped by last week’s high at 1.3550 and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought territory, warning that a deeper retracement south may follow. If early in the week the bears can break 1.3450, we may see a move back into the 1.3320 zone but on the other hand, if 1.3450 becomes support, we will probably see a move into 1.3600 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The week is rather slow for the Pound, with only a few notable releases. The Construction PMI and Services PMI will come out Monday and Tuesday respectively, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in their sector.

The last announcement of the week is the Manufacturing Production scheduled Friday. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the Pound if it posts a higher than anticipated reading; the opposite is true for a lower reading. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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  #180  
Old 11-12-2017, 07:59
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THREE INTEREST RATES – THREE REASONS FOR HUGE VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the US Dollar that showed signs of recovery and took the pair into 1.1700 area. Most of the move was technical as the economic scene was slow and without market moving events.



Technical Outlook

After the break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, price remained below 1.1875 and descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Although last week closed below the 50 EMA, the last daily candle has a very long wick and a very small body, which is a sign of indecision, so the next direction is difficult to anticipate. For now the first support is located at 1.1700 and resistance sits at 1.1875; if price climbs above the 50 EMA, showing that the initial break was false, we expect a move into 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

The first notable releases of the week are scheduled Tuesday: the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 300 German investors and analysts regarding economic conditions) and the U.S. Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services).

Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their interest rate, which is expected to increase from <1.25% to <1.50%. A Rate Statement will come out at the same time, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and half an hour later, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate. Given that this is the final rate announcement of the year, we may see strong movement on the US Dollar.

Thursday it’s the ECB’s turn to announce the interest rate (no change expected) and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference during which he will answer unscripted questions from journalists. Also Thursday the U.S. Retail Sales will come out, so this will be another day with possibly high volatility. The week ends Friday without any notable releases.



GBP/USD

The Pound had a choppy week and was affected by Brexit talks that generated periods of irregular volatility and reversals on the lower time frames. The bias was bearish but the pair remained above support.



Technical Outlook

After bouncing at 1.3320, the pair climbed above 1.3450 only to move back below it again, showing choppy price action. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by any news regarding Brexit negotiations but the levels to watch remain 1.3320 as support and 1.3550 as resistance (for now 1.3450 doesn’t seem too important). A break of 1.3320 and the 50 EMA will open the door for a move into 1.3050 but this could take more than a week.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a busier week than usual, starting with the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

Wednesday the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price that employers pay for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because usually if businesses pay more for labor they tend to increase the price of their products. If the actual change surpasses expectations, this usually strengthens the Pound.

Thursday the British Retail Sales will come out and the Bank of England will announce the rate decision, which creates volatility even if no change occurs. As always, the U.S. releases will have a strong impact on the pair so caution is recommended.
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  #181  
Old 18-12-2017, 09:21
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION BECOMES CHOPPIER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WINTER HOLIDAYS


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week the Fed raised the interest rate from <1.25% to <1.50% as expected but Fed Chair Yellen was somewhat dovish during her press conference and this generated a jump higher on the back of US Dollar weakness. Most of the Euro gains were erased during the following days.



Technical Outlook

The pair ended last week very close to the opening price and couldn’t break free from the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is almost flat, indicating a lack of momentum on both sides. Currently, price action is capped by two trend lines and the break of one of them will probably decide the next direction but until that happens the pair will probably show ranging price action. Horizontal support sits at 1.1700 and resistance is located at 1.1875; for a breakout to happen price needs to clear these zones as well.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week will be the Eurozone Final version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday. This is an important gauge of inflation but the Final version tends to have the lowest impact. Tuesday the German IFO Business Climate will show the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for the German economy and on the US Dollar side the only notable release will be the Building Permits, which shows how many construction permits were issued during the previous month.

Thursday the U.S. Final Gross Domestic Product will be released, showing changes in the total value of services and goods generated by the economy and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Overall it’s a rather slow week, mostly due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.

GBP/USD

Last week the pair bounced between support and resistance, a behavior mostly generated by the fundamentals: first the US Dollar weakened during the Fed meeting and then it was the Pound’s turn to go down after more Brexit concerns emerged.



Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3450, the pair dropped into the confluence zone created by the support at 1.3320 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Momentum is on the sellers’ side but as long as the mentioned support zone is intact, the pair’s direction is uncertain. A break will likely trigger a stronger drop but the focus will remain on Brexit negotiations so the Pound will be prone to sudden moves.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead, with only a few notable releases. Wednesday BOE Governor Carney will speak before the Treasury Select Committee about the November Financial Stability Report. De pending on his attitude, the Pound may see increased volatility so caution is advised.

Thursday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing the difference between spending and income for the Public Sector. A positive number shows deficit and a negative number shows surplus but the indicator is not a major market mover.

Friday the Current Account will be released, showing the value difference between imported and exported goods and the same day the Final version of the British GDP will come out. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance but the Final version usually has a low impact on the currency.
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  #182  
Old 25-12-2017, 06:12
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK - THIN TRADING VOLUMES AND IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The pair had a bullish week and seemed to gain some traction but from a longer term perspective it is still trading inside a range, without a definite bias. Moreover, this ranging behavior is likely to continue throughout this week due to the Christmas Holidays.


Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the bullish trend line seen on the chart above and continued higher, reaching the bearish trend line and the horizontal resistance around 1.1875. This means that although the bias was bullish last week, we are not dealing with a breakout and the pair is still range bound. Monday and Tuesday most markets will be closed due to Christmas and volatility will probably remain irregular for the better part of the week. Caution is recommended because price may show sudden spikes due to the low liquidity, so a technical prediction is difficult to make.

Fundamental Outlook

During the first two days of the week, European and U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of the Christmas Holiday, so volatility will be highly affected and most markets will be closed. The first release of the week is scheduled Wednesday: the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey; however, we don’t expect its impact to be high considering that liquidity will be still affected by the Winter Holidays.

Thursday will be another slow day, with the U.S. Unemployment Claims as the only notable event and the week ands Friday with a release that usually has a high impact: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which acts as the main gauge of inflation; however, its impact may be muted this time.

GBP/USD

After a strong climb that occurred at the beginning of last week, the pair showed choppy movement and retraced most of the gains. The macroeconomic environment was slow and contributed to the lack of directional movement.


Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy and will probably remain so until January next year. For the short term we expect to see a touch of the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the support around 1.3320 – 1.3300, where the next direction will be decided. A bounce or break in this zone can be followed by a move into the resistance at 1.3450 or the support at 1.3250 but trading volumes will be thin and may result in sudden spikes and erratic price movement.

Fundamental Outlook

For the first two days of the week UK banks will be closed due to Christmas and the rest of the week no important economic releases will take place. We expect choppy price action and irregular volatility.
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  #183  
Old 01-01-2018, 16:43
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: FIRST TRADING WEEK OF 2018 – US JOBS DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: The US Dollar ended the year on a bearish note, weakening for the entire last week against the Euro. The pair finished 2017 right on the key resistance at 1.2000 but it is unclear yet if we are dealing with a true break.




Technical Outlook

After breaking the bearish trend line seen on the Daily chart above, the pair continued higher and breached the important barrier at 1.2000. The short term momentum is bullish but price action will be affected by low volumes during the early days of the coming week and this means that we may see either another period of strong movement or tight ranges. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and 1.2000 is a key level, so the probability of a bounce lower from here is high.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday is the first day of the New Year, so most banks across the globe will be closed and no economic data will come out. Tuesday is again a slow day, without major indicators and action finally picks up Wednesday with the U.S. Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will offer details about the latest FOMC rate decision and reasons that determined it.

Thursday we take a first look at US employment data with the release of the ADP Non-farm Employment Change, which is a report that shows changes in the total number of employed people, apart from the farming sector and Government.

The last release of the week but the most important is scheduled Friday: the Non-Farm Payrolls, which is the main gauge of employment in the United States. The report shows changes in the total number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and usually has a high impact on the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen across the board last week and the pair finished the year very close to 1.3500, on a bullish note.




Technical Outlook

For this week we expect choppy price action, with the pair trapped between 1.3450 support and 1.3550 resistance. Monday the market will come to a stop due to New Year’s Day but action will pick up later in the week when the U.S. employment data will come out. A break outside the range we’ve just mentioned will probably be determined by the economic data released throughout the week.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday British banks will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and the rest of the week will be relatively slow, with only three surveys of purchasing managers. Tuesday the Manufacturing PMI will be released, followed Wednesday by the Construction PMI and Thursday by the Services PMI. These surveys show the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors about business conditions in that sector but the impact is usually medium.

We wish you a Happy New Year!

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  #184  
Old 08-01-2018, 08:05
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS TESTED. POSSIBLE LONG TERM UPTREND RESUMPTION

EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week price action slowed down and the pair traded in a relatively tight range between 1.2000 support and 1.2092 resistance. Overall it was an uneventful week and the pair is likely to enter a consolidation phase.



Technical Outlook

After the big climb seen during the Winter Holidays, price is now bouncing between support and resistance in anticipation of the next breakout. Last year’s high at 1.2092 is a key level for long term price action and a break would show uptrend resumption, followed by moves higher (next potential resistance is located at 1.2280). If the pair bounces at the current resistance, we will probably see a move into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and possibly 1.1900 – 1.1875 area; the oscillators are coming down from overbought, indicating that a move lower is likely.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens with the release of the Eurozone Retail Sales scheduled Monday, which has a low-to-medium impact on the Euro and the next two days will lack any notable releases for both currencies.
Action picks up a bit Thursday with the release of the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. This indicator has inflationary implications because usually a higher producer price translates into a higher consumer price.

Friday will be the busiest day of the week, with two important releases: the US Consumer Price Index (one of the main gauges of inflation) and the US Retail Sales. Both have a strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it, so we expect increased volatility, especially because the rest of the week lacks major releases.

GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed week, with the US Dollar showing brief moments of strength at the time of the FOMC Minutes release. The US jobs data came out worse than anticipated but the market reaction was jerky and without strong directional movement.




Technical Outlook


Price bounced at 1.3616 resistance and appeared to move lower, towards 1.3450 support. This level can still be reached over the course of this week if the pair bounces again around 1.3600. The current level at 1.3550 will be important to watch on the lower time frames because the way price behaves around it will determine if the immediate target is 1.3600 – 1.3616 or 1.3450.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a very slow economic week ahead, with Wednesday being the only day with notable releases: the Manufacturing Production and NIESR GDP Estimate. The former report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and the latter is just an estimate of the Gross Domestic Product so its impact is sometimes overlooked by market participants.

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  #185  
Old 15-01-2018, 09:29
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

FOREX NEWS: MAJOR BREAKOUTS UNDERWAY. BULLS TAKE CONTROL OF MEDIUM TERM PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro was boosted by news that the ECB might change their forward guidance to a more hawkish tone and also by positive news coming from the German political scene, later in the week. All this triggered a huge climb, breaking last year’s high.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2092 shows that the long term uptrend has resumed and this makes 1.2280 the next target. This is a long term resistance that hasn’t been reached in a long time so we don’t know exactly how price will react once and if it touches it. Last week the pair has traveled a long distance to the upside and this usually calls for a retracement or a period of consolidation but as long as the pair remains above 1.2100, the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook


Monday US banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no economic data will be released. Tuesday will be another slow day and action picks up a bit Wednesday with the U.S. Industrial Production and European Final CPI. These are indicators with a medium impact so we don’t expect huge movement at the time of release.

Thursday’s highlights will be the U.S. Building Permits and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index but again, these have a low-to-medium influence on the greenback so the impact may be overlooked. The final release of the week will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment scheduled Friday. This a survey that shows the opinions of consumers regarding economic conditions and it is important because a confident consumer is likely to spend more and this boosts the economy but it is not known as a strong market mover.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was present across the board last week, allowing the Pound to make substantial advances to the north after a ranging period.



Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3616 resistance marks the possible beginning of an extended period of bullish movement. The strong breakout will most likely be followed by a small retracement south but overall the pair is moving up and the US Dollar offers little resistance. The next resistance and target for the week is located at 1.3860, where we expect a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by only two major releases this week: the British Consumer Price Index scheduled Tuesday and the British Retail Sales scheduled Friday. The former is the main gauge of inflation in the UK, while the latter has a strong impact because sales made at retail levels represent the biggest part of consumer spending. Numbers above expectations for either one of them have the potential to strengthen the Pound.

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  #186  
Old 22-01-2018, 09:44
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM MEETINGS START IN DAVOS. STRONG MARKET IMPACT EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week we saw several attempts to move above the resistance at 1.2280 but all resulted in bounces lower. Overall the pair remained consolidation phase, but pressure is mounting for a stronger move.




Technical Outlook

It is now clear that 1.2280 is a strong resistance zone, so a break or bounce here will be important for medium term price action. The pair is in an uptrend, so there’s a high possibility of a move above 1.2280 – 1.2300, which would open the door for 1.2500, which is a psychological level (such a move will likely take more than one week). On the other hand, the RSI is showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs and the oscillator is showing a double top) and this is a warning sign that a deeper move south will follow. If this is the case the first support is located at 1.2092.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action during the week ahead will likely be influenced by the World Economic Forum (WEF) Meetings held in Davos. The meetings will last all week so caution is recommended. Apart from this, the Euro will be affected by the ZEW Economic sentiment released Tuesday, while Wednesday the focus will be on the US Dollar for the release of the Existing Home Sales.
Thursday the ECB will announce the interest rate, which is not expected to change but ECB President Draghi will hold a press conference shortly after and this is usually a reason for high volatility. Friday the most notable release will be the US Advance version of the GDP, which is the main gauge of overall economic performance.

GBP/USD

Last week the bulls remained mostly in control and took the pair to a high at 1.3942. However, later in the week price rebounded and approached the previous resistance at 1.3860.




Technical Outlook

Although the pair is on an upwards trend, it bounced twice at 1.3942 and the Relative Strength Index is still in overbought territory, which means that we will probably see a move south this week. If 1.3860 is broken, the first potential support is located around 1.3600 but such a long move will need some support from the fundamental side. On the other hand, a break of 1.3942 will take the pair into the key psychological resistance at 1.4000.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will only be affected by two major releases this week: the Average Earnings Index scheduled Wednesday and the Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled Friday. Also Friday, Bank of England Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum and this could be another reason for increased volatility.

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  #187  
Old 29-01-2018, 13:19
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Default Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BIG WEEK FOR THE US DOLLAR: FED RATE DECISION AND NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: US Dollar weakness continued throughout the entire last week and the pair made substantial advances to the north, reaching the key psychological level at 1.2500.



Technical Outlook

The pair is in a clear uptrend but the last two candles are showing long upper wicks and rejection at 1.2500; also the pair has traveled a long distance to the upside, taking the Relative Strength Index into overbought territory. All this suggests that we will see a move lower this week, possibly into the support at 1.2300 but a lot will depend on the key US data released during the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The week starts with a slow Monday but action picks up Tuesday when we take a first look at German inflation with the Consumer Price Index. Later the same day the US Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of consumers regarding overall economic conditions.
Wednesday President Trump will deliver a speech in Washington DC and although this may go mostly overlooked by the market, caution is still recommended. The FOMC will also release their interest rate Statement the same day. No change is expected for the rate but if the Statement contains hints about the next rate hike, the US Dollar is likely to react strongly.
The final cluster of events is the US jobs data scheduled Friday: the Average Earnings Index, the Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. All these have a huge impact on the greenback and create volatility almost each time they are released, so caution should be used.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound posted large gains last week, partly due to US Dollar weakness and partly due to increased hopes for a “smooth” Brexit.



Technical Outlook

Since the bounce at 1.3450, the pair has moved straight up, without a proper pullback, which makes it extremely overextended and in need of a move lower. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the last candles are showing long wicks, which is another sign of rejection, so we will probably see a touch of the zone between 1.4050 – 1.4000. After this possible retracement is complete, bullish movement will probably resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lackluster week ahead, with only a few notable events. Tuesday BOE Governor Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee; Thursday the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, followed Friday by the Construction PMI. Carney’s testimony could be a strong market mover but the PMIs usually have just a minor impact on the Pound unless the actual figure differs a lot from expectations. As always, the US releases will have a direct and possibly strong impact on the pair.

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