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EUR/USD: "Tweezers" set up bullish correction
10/25/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh4.png The previously formed “Tweezers” pattern on the one-hour chart has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the 89 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to test the last low. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh1.png The price faced a support at 1.0847, which led to the current consolidation. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.0821. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11034 |
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October’s market trend
10/25/2016 Currency volatility felt significantly on the triple-win of Hillary Clinton in the presidential debates and on the market pricing the probability of the US interest rate hike. The dollar managed to rise at a seventh-month high not stopping its rally in the course of three weeks. Polls show Democratic nominee Clinton is taking the lead over her counterpart Donald Trump in the election race. In a way, it reduces political uncertainty and turns the traders’ attention to the monetary policy. At the present moment, the market is already pricing the probability of the US interest rate hike at 70%. The majority of stakeholders sell the euro for the dollar and buy the dollar for the yen on the reoccurring drops in its movement. It seems that peace and quiet have finally established in the currency market. But there is no answer how long all this will last. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. global currency volatility index fell to 9.3%, reaching its lowest rate since December 8. The US dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback in relation to other major currencies, reached its highest level since February. There is a strong need for some catalyst to kick the market and drag it from the beaten path. We will keep a sharp look out to inform you on the possible triggers. Meanwhile, you may enjoy the market’s smooth cruising. US Dollar Index https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...B%D0%B9(8).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11035 |
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USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver new high
10/25/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH4.png The 21 & 34 Moving Averages acted as a support, so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance level. As we can see on the Daily chart, bulls are going to reach the upper side on the “Window”. If any reversal pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an option to see a local correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH1.png The price is moving in a range of the “Window”. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11036 |
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Keep in focus M. Draghi’s speech
10/25/2016 Last week Mario Draghi ascertained the reporters that an abrupt end of the bond-buying program is unlikely in the forthcoming future. In addition, he sent a clear signal that the QE program will likely be if not expanded, but at least extended beyond March. The market’s reaction followed without further delay; the euro dropped to its June’s lows in the course of the ECB press conference. Now, it is sliding down further hardly losing the momentum it got on Thursday. Later today at 3:30 GMT we will hear ECB President Mario Draghi speaking about stability, equity, and monetary policy at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin. According to Barclays, we should expect some further elaboration from Draghi on the extent of the ECB’s bond purchasing program, as its present pace with the shrinking pool of eligible assets and dim perspectives of the Eurozone economic recovery cannot be sustained anymore. If we get confirmation of Barclay’s guess from M. Draghi today’s speech, we may hope for the euro’s recovery from its present lows. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11037 |
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[B]EUR/USD & New Home Sales: Can we see further bullish momentum after the data?
10/26/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT will be released the US New Home Sales data for September and we’re expecting to see a slight decrease to 600,000 from 609,000. With that being said, markets should react against the US Dollar, which has been showing some weakness across the board, following the last week that was characterised by gains. We should remind that new home sales’ numbers had been showing good performance in the last three months. Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still bearish, but the pair remains trapped in a sideways range between the 1.0893 and 1.0852 levels. If we see positive data from the United States, then we can expect an attempt to break the support level of 1.0852, which should open the doors to visit the 1.0786 level. However, as the EUR/USD pair is consolidating above the 50 SMA, one can expect a short-lived bullish momentum towards the 200 SMA. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...URUSDH1(8).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11040 |
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Gold is returning to the trend
10/26/2016 On the daily chart of gold, "bulls" failed to test the resistance line at $1273-1276 per ounce. If they manage to break it, they will move up further towards $1292 and $1308 levels (38.2% and 50% levels from the last mid-term downward wave). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...6_07_52_54.png On the hourly chart of gold, quotes moved beyond the consolidation area located at $ 1250-1267 per ounce. It means that the process of accumulation of long positions has been finished and that a trend is showing up. If the "bulls" manage to test the resistance line at $ 1276, their rally may continue. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...6_07_53_11.png Recommendation: hold longs formed at $1267 per ounce. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11041 |
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USD/JPY: bulls faced with pin-bar
10/26/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bull" showed weakness having failed to consolidate above the previously reached high. As a result counterattack, "bearish" pin bar has been formed. Breakout of the support line at the minimum of the pin-bar (at 104.06) will tell us about the continuation of correction. There could be a restoration of the upward trend if quotes move above the $ 104.9 level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...6_07_59_57.png On the USD hourly chart, break of the lower border of the upward trading channel will increase the risks of formation of a wave from 4-5 expanding wedge pattern. If quotes return to the support line at 103.15, the "bears" will have a chance to continue the correction in the direction of the 102 mark. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...6_08_00_14.png Recommedations: shift SL on shorts to the 104,55 mark (breakeven point), SELL 104,05 SL 104,6 TP1 103,15 TP2 102 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11042 |
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Morning brief for October 26, 2016
10/26/2016 Aussie hopped today having reached the 0.7708 resistance line on the better-than-expected inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.7% in the last quarter, but the annual headline inflation remained at an anemic 1.3%. The quarterly increase could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting of Reserve Bank of Australia. But with persistently low annual inflation rate hardly reaching bank’s 2-3% target, the prospect of interest rate cut is still on the table in the longer-term. NZD/USD added some additional points having decided to keep pace with Aussie. We will see what happens next with this pair after the trade balance release is published later today. There were some toing and froing on the 4H timeframe chart of USD/JPY. The pair moved lower in the Tokyo morning, tracking down towards the 104 mark before adding 40-odd points, then it was rising again. There wasn’t any significant news that could disturb smooth cruising of this pair. Today, however, the pair can experience some moves after the US new home sales data come to the surface. The market expects a slight drop in sales which could cause USD depreciation in relation to other currencies. Oil prices lower today with rising production in Nigeria, wrangling among producers about a planned output cut, stiff Iraqi refusal to participate in any deal that could curb its present oil production and imminent impeachment of Nicolas Maduro (Venezuelan President). Oil prices may fall even further today if the Energy Administration Agency crude inventories figures do increase, as forecasts predict so. The EUR/USD currency pair is trading sideways near the 1.0877 level preparing for the range of great events (the US elections, FOMC and ECB meetings) that could fuel its long-lasting flat movement. All we can do at the present moment to return volatility to the EUR/USD chart is to cry “hallo”. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11043 |
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EUR/USD: small local "Flag"
10/26/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The last bearish “Flag” was broken yesterday. However, the price came back to the previous levels, so there’s an opportunity to see an upward correction. At the same time, the nearest support at 1.0847 could be tested once again. If so, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0911 – 1.0951. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png The price faced a support at 1.0847, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so we’ve got a consolidation under the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a local “Flag”, so the market is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11044 |
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GBP/USD: intraday "Pennant"
10/26/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The lower side of the last “Wedge” pattern has been broken. The price faced a support at 1.2089, which led to the current upward correction. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on, cause we haven’t got any confirmed reversal pattern so far. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which was a departure point for the current bullish correction. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11045 |
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Scaling in trading approach
10/26/2016 Neither traders nor high-profile analysts can say for sure which way the prices will go. If traders knew, they would commit all their funds at the top or the bottom of the technical chart in order not to lose a chance of snatching great sum of money, and did make big profits from their lots. Unfortunately, we are not prophets who possess psychic powers, we are humans, so, it’s beyond our abilities to make such predictions. What we do have, though, is our rational mind and gut feeling that could give us some clues on how the quotes will move further. Imagine you have a really great idea on how to trade a certain currency pair, but you don’t want to risk the whole sum of money you possess because you’re not a hundred percent sure in your guess. So, in this situation, you may apply a more cautious way of trading called “scaling in”. It suggests you smooth your risks by entering the market in pieces instead of putting the entire position on just in one entry. So, you simply should take an early, partial or quarter position based on your assumptions of a further price move and wait to see how your assumption play out. If you are better off after the first try, you can continue to place your bets putting aside some money for the next trading sessions. To use this trading approach accurately you should plan out your entries, divide the money you possess into shares and assign them to several bets. Don’t go overboard if you got lots of money after the first try. Markets are vicious, they can play a low-down trick with you and leave you without pants. “Scaling in” approach is designed for rational, prudent and tactical traders, who trade not just for pleasure, but also for making money from their bets. Example: in the situation presented on the picture, you divide your bet into 4 pieces. You start with the 0.8900 point, and if the trend continues, you open the next long position at the upper level (at 0.8950) with the same bet. Then, you continue to place new orders similar to your first ones (at 0.9000, at 0.9050) until the end of the trend. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...size_distr.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11046 |
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EUR/USD: in correction to Kijun
10/26/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0890; resistance – 1.0945. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0945; SL — 1.0965; TP1 — 1.0890; TP2 – 1.0860. Reason: dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are inside the channel Tenkan-Kijun. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...rusdh4(49).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11047 |
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AUD/USD: trades going to positive zone
10/26/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7670, 0.7650; resistance – 0.7710, 0.7760. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7670; SL — 0.7650; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7760. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of the Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(41).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11048 |
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USD/JPY: consolidation in channel Tenkan-Kijun
10/26/2016 Technical levels: support – 104.00/05; resistance – 105.20, 105.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.10; SL — 103.90; TP1 — 105.20; TP2 — 105.70. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(49).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11049 |
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Key option levels for Wednesday, October 26th
10/26/2016 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11050/USDJPY(50).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest - 341 ? + 215 ? Closest resistance levels 104.13; 104.38; 104.56; 104.81 Closest support levels 103.90; 103.64; 103.41; 103.12 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.13, with the target points at 104.38 and 104.56 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.90 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.64 and 103.41 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11050/USDCAD(46).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 98 ? + 254 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3364; 1.3385; 1.3425; 1.3479 Closest support levels 1.3312; 1.3287; 1.3252; 1.3203 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3364, with the target points at 1.3385 and 1.3425 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3312 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3287 and 1.3252 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11050 |
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EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" resulted in a correction
10/26/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh4.png We’ve got a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing” at the local low, which both have been confirmed enough. If a pullback from the 21 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction. However, bulls will probably try to reach the 55 Moving Average afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave” patterns, so it’s likely to have a bullish correction towards the nearest resistance level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh1.png There’s an upward correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Previously, an “Inverted Hammer” was formed at the local low. So, the market is likely going to get a support on the 34 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish movement in the direction of the 144 Moving Average. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11051 |
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Goldman Sachs is bearish on GBP
10/26/2016 The pound dropped a 31-year low against the greenback in October. According to Goldman Sachs, sterling has further room for depreciation. You will probably ask why. There are several reasons: The UK currency is still overvalued by around 10 % despite its tremendous downfall that happened after June referendum. The UK will need further depreciation of the pound to bring its current account to equilibrium. Due to sterling’s precipitous downfall in October, the UK’s current account deficit has shrunken from 6% to about 3.3% of GDP. It is still not enough to reach a 1.5% target. To fulfill it, the pound should be 20 – 40% lower from its pre-referendum levels. The political uncertainty concerning the conditions of Brexit still weights on the pound. There is a possibility that the Bank of England can recourse to quantitative easing and rate cuts. Chancellor Philip Hammond of the House of Commons said on Tuesday that he sees no reason of rejecting central bank’s request for easing measures and that they might be needed to support the UK economy in the nearest future. Yesterday the UK currency picked up a little primarily due to Carney’s deliberate performance and his attempts to reassure on QE, his own future as a Head of Bank of England, and worries over the Bank’s independence. Now the pound is somewhere at 1.2205, having all chances to slide down once again, if we rely on the Goldman Sachs’s forecasts. Any disturbed economic data from US (the US New home Sales data for September, for example, that should show a slight decrease in the number of home purchases), however, could offer some support to the cable in the short-term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11052 |
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USD/JPY: "Engulfing" stopped bulls
10/26/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH4.png We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern at the local high, so the price is declining. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, bulls are likely going to reach the upper “Window” once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to have a downward price movement. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH1.png There’re an “Engulfing” and a “Belt Hold”, which both have been confirmed enough. It’s likely that the price is going to test the “Window” once again. If a pullback from it happens, bears will probably try to deliver a correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11053 |
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Oil prices lost their footing at $50 per barrel
10/26/2016 Oil prices dropped today as American Petroleum Institute (API) data released yesterday showed that the US crude inventories rose by 4.8 million barrels. Official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is going to be published later in the session. Forecasts indicate a significant increase in the US stockpiles; this could send quotes towards $49.73 (October 3 low) or $49.00 (38.2% Fibo level) from its present $49.88 level. Donald Morton, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co., a high-profile expert who runs an energy-trading desk, believes that the quotes may fall down to $46 a barrel in the near-term if concerns over the feasibility of the oil freeze deal continue to rise. “Bearish” outlook for oil could be confirmed technically. There is a double-top reversal pattern at the end of the upward trend. From this, we may conclude, that there could be a significant downfall towards $47.83 (near the 50% Fibo level). Concerns about a prolonged global glut refueled as Iraq refused to participate in any deal that could curb its current production. The oil prices have been rising since September 28 when OPEC nations reached an accord to curb output in November 30 in the course of the meeting in Vienna. Now the prospects of the cut in oil production are fading away as more squabbles among oil-exporting countries are coming to light. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11054/kl.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11054 |
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GBP/USD ahead of UK GDP Q3: Time to unleash the bears?
10/27/2016 Today starting at 08:30 GMT we’ll see a series of data releases from the United Kingdom, as we could see a more clear view about the Brexit impact in the national economy. Preliminary GDP, which gauges the gross demand product in the third quarter, is expected to see a decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, and the yearly-basis reading can be unchanged. The latest GDP release was positive for the UK, as we saw a better-than-expected number (0.7% vs. 0.6%). Our technical view for GBP/USD at H1 chart is sideways, as the pair has been very volatile in the recent days. Currently, it’s edging higher above the 200 SMA and it can test the 1.2280 level in coming hours, only if we see a reading better-than-expected for GDP, while a negative scenario can produce a pullback and GBP can crawl lower towards the 1.2100 psychological level in a first degree. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...BPUSDH1(8).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11059 |
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AUD/USD: bulls showed a slack
10/27/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, after the 0.769 target on long positions was fulfilled, there was a sharp collapse in prices. A pin bar pattern has been formed. The successful test of its low can cause Aussie to fall further down the lower boundary of the upward trade channel. "Bulls" failed to attack the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" inverted pattern. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_19_07.png On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there was a rollback towards 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the CD wave, followed by the realization of the 5-0 pattern. If "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above the lower boundary of the upward trading channel (0,762-0,7625), they can restore the "bullish" trend. Alternatively, if "bulls" fail to do so, the correction towards the 0.756 level will continue. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_19_21.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11060 |
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USD/CHF: franc is scared of uncertainty
10/27/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, the formation of the doji and two pin bars indicates uncertainty. The buyer has indicated its presence at the level of 0.9905, sellers were able to defend their position near the mark of 0,996. Target 127.2% in the "Perfect Butterfly" inverted pattern wasn't fulfilled. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_26_13.png On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the "Head and shoulders" pattern can be formed. If it is formed, there could be a break of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and of the neckline followed by correction towards 0,985. Alternatively, a successful test of resistance line at 0.9965 will increase the risks of the uptrend recovery. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...7_08_26_28.png Recommendations: BUY 0,9965 SL 0,991 TP 1,007 SELL 0,9905 SL 0,996 TP 0,98. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11061 |
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GBP/USD: prices still below Senkou Span A
10/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2170, 1.2200; resistance – 1.2230/50. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2230; SL — 1.2250; TP1 — 1.2130; TP2 — 1.2100. 2. Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2360. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A and B; canceling dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; the prices are under a Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(33).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11062 |
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AUD/USD: bears attacked Senkou Span B
10/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7650, 0.7680. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7760. 2. Sell — 0.7620; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7520. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are under the lines; a support of the Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(42).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11063 |
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USD/JPY: on support of Tenkan
10/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 104.40, 104.20, 103.70; resistance – 105.20, 105.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.50; SL — 104.30; TP1 — 105.20; TP2 — 105.70. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A and B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are fixed on Tenkan-sen. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(50).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11064 |
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Morning brief for October 27, 2016
10/27/2016 USD/JPY has risen since yesterday having reached the 104.468 mark. Earlier today we heard Bank of Japan Governor H. Kuroda speaking. He claimed that BOJ is not going to change the present -0.1% interest rate and its zero percent 10-year government bond yield target. It’s high time BOJ held off on easing for a while, according to H. Kuroda. He also rejected an idea of buying foreign-currency denominated bonds, that could weaken the yen. Later today, we will parse the latest inflation and labor market data coming from Japan, that should not bring big changes to the chart. NZD/USD remained almost unchanged in the course of the session. Yesterday the pair dropped a little as we got NZ trade balance data with a dip in exports and widening the deficit. The US dollar has shown a certain degree of strength across the board almost in all major currency pairs (in relation to EUR, CHF, GBP). Expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed remained intact. Later today, we will be watching closely the latest data on US durable goods, jobless claims and pending home sales. The forecasts show improvements, so the greenback may gain momentum once again. Aussie was the biggest loser in the Asian session. Today we got a worse-than-expected data on import prices. Crude oil prices surged from yesterday edging back above the $50 mark as US inventory data went ahead of expectations. The US EIA said that crude inventories fell by 553K barrels in the week, while the market expected a significant gain. However, growing doubts over OPEC's ability to reach an accord on a production cut at the end of next month trim the growth of oil prices. Today’s focus will be on the third-quarter preliminary GDP data coming from the UK. The numbers are expected to offer support for GBP. Now, the pair is still hovering around the 1.2217 level. There were no big changes from yesterday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11065 |
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EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped upward correction
10/27/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0873. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to have an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0971. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last “Double Bottom” pattern has been confirmed by a bullish “Flag”. However, the price faced a resistance at 1.0951 afterwards, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver another decline. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11066 |
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GBP/USD: another pullback from Moving Average
10/27/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.2089, so we’ve got a consolidation. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2089. If this level be broken, bears will be absolutely free to move on until any reversal pattern arrives. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation under a resistance at 1.2248. Therefore, this flat is likely going to be continued until we see any bearish pattern here. If so, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2089 as a possible intraday target. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11067 |
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Key option levels for Thursday, October 27th
19/27/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11068/EURUSD(54).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 92 347 ? + 15 637 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0946; 1.0973; 1.0997; 1.1028 Closest support levels 1.0903; 1.0885; 1.0858; 1.0824 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0903, with target points at 1.0885 and 1.0858 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0946 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0973 and 1.0997 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11068/USDJPY(51).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 2 107 ? - 195 ? Closest resistance levels 104.72; 104.92; 105.20; 105.55 Closest support levels 104.28; 104.08; 103.89; 103.62 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.72, with the target points at 104.92 and 105.20 Alternative scenario Moving below 104.28 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 104.08 and 103.89 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11068/USDCAD(47).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 222 ? - 40 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3383; 1.3401; 1.3434; 1.3484 Closest support levels 1.3332; 1.3305; 1.3266; 1.3210 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3383, with the target points at 1.3401 and 1.3434 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3332 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3305 and 1.3266 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11068 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Stock market and US earnings season
10/27/2016 There is an earning season in the US, the period of time when many large companies release their quarterly earnings reports. This is a very attractive time for trading as the market experiences a lot of movements and immediately reacts to the new data. At the present, US companies with ever increasing frequency disappoint investors with worse-than-expected earnings records and don’t give hopes for the big profits in the near-term. US stocks extended losses on Wednesday after the disappointing earnings report from technology bigshot Apple dragged on Wall Street. The S&P 500, slipped 3.73 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index heavily dependent on the performance of technology companies fell 33.13 points. The only winner was the Dow Jones Industrial Average which added 3.06 points due to better-than-expected results from Boeng Inc. Current situation in the market https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11070/stocks.png Besides the disappointing earnings reports, there is additional pressure on the stocks that comes from the inexhaustible US dollar strengthening. Typically, a rising dollar reflects into the disturbed stock market; the stocks fall when greenback adds a certain degree of strength. The U.S. dollar index which measures the value of the US dollar against other major currencies is rising since the end of September on the expectation of a rate hike in December. Now it stopped for a while consolidating near the 98.60 mark. The “bullish” trend may proceed until the Presidential elections scheduled for November 8, that will be a landmark event for all financial markets. The US Dollar Index https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%D0%B9(10).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11070 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
10/27/2016 AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.0600 AUD/NZD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.0740 (which has reversed the price multiple times from May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 (which also previously started from this resistance area). AUD/NZD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0600 (which reversed the price earlier this month). Strong resistance remains at the aforementioned price level 1.0740. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...AM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11071 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/CHF reversed from support zone
10/27/2016 EUR/CHF reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0900 EUR/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0800 (which has been reversing the price from the start of July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse (1) from the end of June. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2). EUR/CHF is likely to rise in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0900. Strong support remains at 1.0800. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11072 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Tower" prevented further decline
10/27/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh4.png There’re a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed enough. Also, the 21 Moving Average acted as a resistance. If this line be broken, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Doji” and “High Wave” patterns have been confirmed, so there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh1.png We’ve got a “Tower” at the local low, which has a good confirmation. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bulls are likely going to move on in the short term. So, the last high could be broken soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11074 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY & US Q3 GDP: A top is already placed?
10/28/2016 Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US GDP Q3 and according to the market’s consensus, we could expect an increase to 2.5% from 1.4%. With the recent hopes fo a possible rate hike by the Fed in December’s meeting, it will be interesting to see which clues can bring us this indicator. During the second quarter, the US economy saw a modest expansion to 1.4%, but it was below the forecast. Let’s see if greenback’s strength will remain alive after the release. Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is very bullish but overbought. A resistance can be seen at the 105.28 level, where a pullback can happen towards the 104.84 level. Currently, the pair is following a bullish trend line from October 19th low and 200 SMA has been acting well as dynamic support. If data comes above the expectations, then we can expect a cling to the 105.87 level, while a weak data, can produce a pullback to the 104.84 support zone. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...SDJPYH1(6).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11078 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/USD: kiwi came closer to the Rubicon
10/28/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes returned to the lower boundary of the long-term upward trade channel. Breakout of the support will lead to the correction in the direction of 0.7 and lower. In contrast, a rebound followed by activation of the "Bat" inverted pattern will create the prerequisites for the "bullish" trend. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_21_30.png On the hourly NZD/USD chart, if quotes go out from the downward trade channel with the subsequent attack of resistance at 0.7222, the "Bat" pattern can be activated. Its target 88.6% is located near the 0.743 level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_21_45.png Recommendation: BUY 0,7222 SL 0,7167 TP 0,743. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11079 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bears are going to attack
10/28/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, "bears" are keeping the market under control. They are going to fulfill targets127.2% (1.0836) and 161.8% (1.0692) of the "Crab" pattern. However, the breakout of the resistance at 1,095-1,096 could lead to the correction in the direction of 38.2% (1,104) and 50% (1.1103) Fibonacci retracement levels from the last mid-term downward wave. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_14_29.png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the inverted pattern 5-0 has been activated. Rebound from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the wave CD should lead to the change of the trend and correction. If it does not happen and the "bulls" fail to break resistance at 1,095-1,096, the fall of quotes below the 88.6% (1,086) level will be a signal for opening short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_08_14_46.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11080 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for October 28, 2016
10/28/2016 The dollar Index changed a little having risen about 0.2% as smooth US data including unemployment claims, pending home sales and manufacturing activity increased chances for an interest rate hike in December. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell slightly due to the reduction of defense spendings. Today’s focus will be on advanced third-quarter US gross domestic product data due to show up at 12:30 GMT. Meanwhile, the US dollar still appreciates in the relation to other currencies. USD/JPY remained at a three-month high on Friday (near the 105,3 level). Yesterday we got a package of inflation data from Japan. Core inflation figures show us that central bank failed to fight the deflation. National core inflation came in line with expectations. As we can see the yen hardly reacted to these numbers. The Bank of Japan is going to meet on Monday and Tuesday next week to discuss its monetary policy and set the rate. From the BOJ’s Governor Kuroda’s speeches, we may conclude that further easing is not at the table at the upcoming meeting. The euro inched up a little having reached 1.09 level. Later today we will get GDP and inflation data from key Eurozone countries. This could offer some support to the European currency or dragged it lower. Aussie and Kiwi rose yesterday in relation to the greenback. Earlier today we saw a number of Australian home sales. The release fell short of expectations, the new home sales rose by 2.7% in October, following a 6.1% gain in September. The data reflects a sharp deceleration in constructing activity. In addition, we had disappointing inflation data (producer price index was worse-than-expected). This caused AUD to lose some points. Crude oil gained some momentum, having reached $50.47 on Thursday when Saudi Arabia claimed that it is going to reduce production at about 4% and thereby assuaged some lingering doubts about cooperation from other oil-producing countries at the OPEC meeting in November. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11081 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: bears get a chance
10/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2160; resistance – 1.2200. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2250; SL — 1.2270; TP1 — 1.2130; TP2 — 1.2100. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A and B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen but the prices are under Kijun-sen; the prices are under a Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(34).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11082 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/USD: trades moved to negative area
10/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7580, 0.7520; resistance – 0.7610. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7580; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7520; TP2 — 0.7500. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud. [IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11083/03-audusdh4(43).png] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11083 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant"
10/28/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the price achieved a support at 1.0873, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0847 in the short term. If this level be broken, bears will move on. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png The last “Double Top” pattern confirmed by a bearish “Pennant”. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0867 – 1.0858 during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11084 |
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