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Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016 EUR/USD has finally left 1.11/1.13 trading range and fell to test levels below 1.1000. The single currency ignored euro zone’s data releases, which turned out to be quite positive: German and the region’s ZEW economic sentiment improved, and the euro area’s industrial production expanded by 1.6% in August. Negative force pulling the Eurodollar down came from the US as the greenback was driven up by the increased December Fed’s rate hike expectations. On Monday the euro area will release final inflation figures for September. The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. The meeting will draw special attention of investors after speculation that the regulator may taper its quantitative easing program by 10 billion euro a month. Earlier the ECB hinted that it may extend asset purchases beyond March 2017. The ECB president Mario Draghi and his colleagues will have to clarify the situation and their comments will bring in more volatility to the pair. The pair breached down support line from November 2015 (1.1100), bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud (1.1060) and 2016 support line (1.1040). Now these levels will act as resistance. It looks like the negative pressure on the euro is set to continue. Support is at 1.0980, 1.0925/00 ahead of 1.0820. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10896 |
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GBP/USD: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016 In line with expectations, British pound remained under pressure versus the greenback. British currency hit a record low against an index of trade-weighted currencies on Tuesday and government borrowing costs have jumped in recent weeks. The market has calmed down a bit once Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to “full and transparent debate” on the government’s negotiating strategy in parliament before talks with the European Union begin. This helped to ease worries that May places immigration policy above the nation’s access to the EU market. Next week the UK will release inflation figures on Tuesday. Lower pound should lead to an increase in prices, although it remains to be seen when this increase becomes reflected in inflation data. The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney said he was willing to allow inflation to run above than the central bank's 2% target in order to help employment and allow Britain's economy to grow. Earlier the signaled it is likely to cut interest rates below historic minimum of 0.25% in order to help the economy cope with the shock of the Brexit vote. As a result, despite the pound’s weakness traders may still expect the regulator to ease policy at the next meeting on November 3. Also watch the UK labor market figures on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday and public sector net borrowing on Friday. GBP/USD is on the bears’ territory as long as it’s trading below 1.2465/1.2500.Support is at 1.2100 and 1.1985. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...YDaily(18).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10897 |
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USD/JPY: outlook for October 17-21
10/14/2016 USD/JPY tested the highest levels since the end of July. All in all, US dollar rose because of its general strength on increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. The pair did NOT have any significant drivers from Japan. The powers of USD bulls were limited versus the yen as the weaker trade data from China once again sparked concerns about global economic growth. Next week data from Japan will be once again of low importance. Instead focus on the US figures, as well as release of China’s GDP statistics on Wednesday. Lower data will once again increase demand for the yen as a safe haven, while better data will give more fuel to USD/JPY bulls. USD/JPY managed to climb above 100-day MA and the daily Ichimoku Cloud, which are now proving in with support in the 103.45/30 area ahead of the week’s low at 102.80. At the same time, the pair approached resistance zone at 104.85 of the slightly slow upward channel, which has been in place since the middle of August. There’s also a psychologically important level of 105 nearby. This obstacle won’t be very ease for the bulls to break. Such a move requires a new driving force, and we remember that Japan does not offer bullish drivers for USD/JPY. Still, if the bulls managed to push above the mentioned resistance, new upside targets will be at 105.70 and 107.25. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...YDaily(19).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10898 |
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EUR/USD & CPI (YoY): A bottom in the Euro is already placed?
10/17/2016 Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the CPI for September on a yearly basis for Europe and it seems that the reading will remain unchanged for this time and this week, we’ll have some action from the ECB, as their interest rate decision will take place on Thursday. Officials have been closely watching for the data mentioned above, but one could expect some volatility during the release, because of recent Euro’s selling pressure. The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is very bearish, as the pair already managed to consolidate below the 500 SMA and at the end of last week, we saw that the price closed below the 1.10 psychological level. The nearest support is placed at the 1.0955 level and a breakout lower should expose the 1.0909 level. However, if EUR/USD does a strong rebound at the current stage, it should face a key resistance around 1.1043. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...RUSDH4(28).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10899 |
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USD/JPY: bulls are going to have a break
10/17/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 103,5-104,5 (the levels 38,2-50% of XA wave). Breakout of its upper boundary will increase the probability of achieving the target 78.6% for the Gartley pattern (105.9). On the contrary, a successful test of the support line will increase the risks of correction in the direction of 102.5. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_08_19_45.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to breakout the resistance line at 104.55, we will be warned of their weakness. Breakout of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and realisation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern will cause quotes to fall towards the 102.5 - 102.7 area. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_08_20_00.png Recommendations: we should lock in profits on long positions, BUY 104,55 SL 104 TP 105,5, SELL 103,6 SL 104,15 TP 102,5. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10900 |
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USD/CHF: bears are dreaming of a correction
10/17/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, "bulls" fulfilled two targets that had been set earlier. In accordance with the principles of "Shark" patterning, if the 113% level is reached, the risk of correction towards 38,2%-50% from the CD wave increases. Then, there should be a restioration of the upward trend. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_08_26_11.png On the USD/CHF hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to break the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and the support line at 0.986, the quotes may fall towards the 0.98 and 0.9785 levels where targets of the "Bat" pattern are located. From these level it pays to form longs https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_08_26_25.png Recommendations: BUY 0,98 SL 0,9745 TP 0,991 BUY 0,978 SL 0,9725 TP 0,991 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10901 |
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EUR/USD: price going to test Moving Averages
10/17/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0978, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a local upward correction in progress. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1032 – 1.1045 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will have a chance to test the nearest support at 1.0951 – 1.0911. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got another “V-Bottom” pattern on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1000 – 1.0984. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10902 |
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GBP/USD: "Pennant" pushing market lower
10/17/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price is consolidating along a level at 1.2226. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to push the market even lower towards the next support area at 1.2089 – 1.1726 until any bullish pattern arrives. So, if we see a reversal pattern, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png There’s a flat, which is taking place under the Moving Averages. Moreover, we’ve got another “Pennant” here, so the price is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2098 – 1.1726. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10903 |
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EUR/USD: diagonal triangle
10/17/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7102444001.png There’s a bearish impulse in wave [i], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that wave (v) is going to be continued in the short term. If a pullback from 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7102444002.png Considering that the last wave i is a zigzag, there’s a chance to have a diagonal triangle in wave (v). Meanwhile, wave ii is likely going to end in the coming hours, so wave iii could be started soon. The main intraday target is -2/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10904 |
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Key option levels for Monday, October 17th
10/17/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(47).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 820 204 ? - 722 993 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1052; 1.1087; 1.1113; 1.1143 Closest support levels 1.0966; 1.0947; 1.0922; 1.0892 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0966, with target points at 1.0947 and 1.0922 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1052 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1087 and 1.1113 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(45).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 005 ? + 1 374 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2278; 1.2310; 1.2352; 1.2377 Closest support levels 1.2153; 1.2127; 1.2092; 1.2070 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2153, with target points at 1.2127 and 1.2092 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2278 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2310 and 1.2352 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(44).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 883 ? + 1 512 ? Closest resistance levels 104.34; 104.65; 104.85; 105.11 Closest support levels 103.44; 103.25; 103.01; 102.72 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.34, with the target points at 104.65 and 104.85 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.44 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.25 and 103.01 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10907 |
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Tips from Barclays: how to trade ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting
10/17/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...s_3480576b.jpg The European Central Bank’s meeting scheduled for this Thursday will probably take most of the attention of the market this week. It is expected that there won’t be any changes in monetary policy this month. The recent rumors on QE tapering have been dismissed by ECB senior officials. Growth and inflation in the Eurozone still hardly reach the targets, so, It’s too soon for the ECB to start withdrawing monetary accommodation. The current asset purchase program (APP) is due to expire at the end of March 2017; this ECB conference will be closely watched for signs whether QE will be extended further and if it is extended, when it will happen. Barclays recommends to sell EUR/USD ahead of the ECB meeting on the 20th of October. It entered short via filling a limit order at 1.0990 with a target at 1.0815 and stop-loss at 1.1170. Barclays believes that a possible extension of APP and changes into the QE program will be announced in December. However, Mario Draghi will likely be asked about QE tapering during the press conference. He may answer that it is a bit premature to speak of the QE tapering now. His responses could add some fuel to the EUR/USD movement on Thursday. Societe Generale also predicts a rough week for the euro and believes that it may weaken in course of the upcoming trading session with the USD strengthening on the probability of rate hikes in December and QE talk in the Eurozone. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(21).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10908 |
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GBP/USD: downtrend may continue
10/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2160; resistance – 1.2200. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2150; SL — 1.2170; TP1 — 1.2100; TP2 — 1.2030. Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but a narrowing channel of Tenkan and Kijun; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; falling Senkou Span A. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(28).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10910 |
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AUD/USD: on the support of the Cloud
10/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7580; resistance – 0.7640. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7580/90; SL — 0.7560; TP1 — 0.7640; TP2 — 0.7690. Reason: a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising lines of the Cloud; a strong support of the Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(36).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10911 |
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USD/JPY: 104.50 stopped the Bulls moving
10/17/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.90; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.00/10; SL — 103.80; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; narrowing channel of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but its formed a strong support. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(43).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10912 |
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EUR/USD: Moving Averages going to act as resistance
10/17/2016 {IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10913/1710eurusdh4.png[/IMG] We’ve got a confirmed “Doji” at the last low, which led to the current upward correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which means bears will probably move on. [/IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10913/1710eurusdh1.png There’s a bullish “Harami”, so the price is likely going to reach the nearest 34 Moving Average, which could act as a resistance. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10913 |
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USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" led to correction
10/17/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10usdjpyH4.png There’s a support by the 21 & 13 Moving Averages. However, we’ve got an “Engulfing” on the upper “Window”. So, bears are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a resistance by the nearest “Window” and the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to see a local downward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. Previously, a “Shooting Star” has been formed at the local high. So, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support line during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10914 |
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GBP/NZD falling inside primary impulse wave
10/17/2016 GBP/NZD falling inside primary impulse wave Next sell target - 1.7000 and 1.6500 GBP/NZD has been under bearish pressure recently – following the earlier breakout of the support level 1.7270, which was set as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.7270 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3), which is a part of the primary downward impulse wave ? from the middle of July (which is itself a part of the longer-term downward impulse III from May). GBP/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.7000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.6500 (forecast price for the completion of the active downward impulse III). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10915 |
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GBP/CHF approaching support level 1.2000
10/17/2016 GBP/CHF approaching support level 1.2000 Next sell target - 1.1800 GBP/CHF continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.2200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.2200 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5, which earlier broke the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from the end of June. GBP/CHF is currently approaching the round support level 1.2000. If the price breaks below this support level - GBP/CHF can then fall to the next support level 1.1800 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor sub-wave (iii)). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10916 |
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Key volatile events for the near-time period
10/17/2016 The FOMC meetings The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for November 1–2 and December 13–14. There is a chance of rate hike at the upcoming meetings, especially at the latter. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-638871.jpg US presidential elections Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are entering final straight to the White House. The last presidential debates will be held this week on October 19. The US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The election results may heavily influence financial markets. Some analysts believe that a Donald Trump presidency could cause dollar to rise. A stronger US currency is generally negative for all commodities. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2095102(1).jpg OPEC meeting On September 28 in the course of the International Energy Forum held in Algeria the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to reduce output to a range of 32.50 million barrels per day to 33.0 million bpd. But the delicate and critical issue of how much each of the 14 OPEC members will actually produce was left aside. The share of each member will be defined by the High Level Committee at OPEC’s annual meeting scheduled for November 30, 2016. The Algeria agreement boosted market sentiments and commodity prices rallied. BOE, BOJ, RBA Monetary Policy Statements The first week of November is expected to be extremely volatile, as there will be not only the FOMC meeting, but also monetary policy announcements of three major central banks. The week will be opened with BOJ meeting scheduled for November 1. In the last speeches, Bank of Japan Governor H. Kuroda maintained its upbeat view on the national economy. He also claimed that the bank is ready to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for as long as needed to reach the long-cherished 2% inflation target. So, with current yen gradual appreciation and low pace of Japan’s economy we should not expect any tightening from BOJ. Then, there will be the Bank of England’s meeting scheduled for November 3. At the last meeting held in September, all 9 MPC members took the wait-and-see approach by voting not to change interest rate. The opinion over the possibility of rate hike or cut is divided. With economy looking healthier after the Brexit vote than expected, cheap money launched for banks, pound’s precipitous depreciation some suggest that BOE’s officials will raise rate this time – although others forecast a cut may still arrive if board decides that economy will need additional stimulus. But there is a great probability that the BOE will sit tight on interest rate in November waiting to hear Chancellor Philip Hammond coming up with Autumn Statement. On November 1 we will also hear the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement. At the last meeting the RBA’s senior officials decided to keep interest rate on hold. We will be waiting for the RBA’s minutes coming this Tuesday to know the intentions of the board members. If the RBA’s officials decide that Australian economy needs additional stimulus, they may undertake additional easing measures. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...ary-Policy.jpg Italian referendum A constitutional referendum is planned to be held in Italy on Sunday 4 December 2016. Voters will be asked whether they approve the amendment of the Italian Constitution to transform the Senate of the Republic into a "Senate of Regions" composed of regional councilors and mayors. Once it’s approved, the Senate’s authority will be drastically curbed, and the Italian government with its minister in charge will be given a free rein. Some people believe that it’s going to produce an effect of a “Brexit” like nature, because Mateo Renzi tied the results of the referendum with his own political career. If the constitutional reform is not approved by Italians, it will leave the door open for the next election. In the rise of immigration crisis and numerous Eurozone problems, Five Star Movement, a party mainly composed of political novices could win the next race. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...-eu-691326.jpg More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10917 |
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Price actions strategies
10/17/2016 There was a team of the very minimalist traders, who decided to invent a very simple trading approach without any oscillators, lagging indicators, Fibonacci retracement and looked only at the actions of the price. So, they just removed all these needless things from their trading screens and predicted future price movement with a high degree of accuracy without them. We would like to present you some of their “keep it simple” strategies. 1. Pin Bar Trading Strategy A pin bar is a price action strategy that activates at important support and resistance levels. Pin bars can be taken counter trend as well. They could be easily identified, as they protrude significantly from the surrounding price bars. When they occur, it means that the strong rejection has occurred and that a potential reversal is imminent. A candlestick of this pattern consists of one price bar with small body and long shadow. The shadow shows the area of price that was rejected, and the implication is that price will continue to move in an opposite direction to the shadow of the candlestick. A bearish pin bar signal is the one which has a long upper tail, which shows that there was a rejection of higher prices and that quotes are going to move in the opposite direction in the near-term. A bullish pin bar signal has a long low tail, it shows the rejection of lower prices and tell us that there will be a price hike. http://priceaction.com/wp-content/up...08/pinbar1.png There are a few entry options for traders who decided to trade with this strategy. The first one, is when you enter the trade at the current market price. You should keep in mind that the pin bar that gives a reversal signal must be closed before you enter the market or this candle won’t be considered a pin bar. Another entry option for a pin trading signal is entering on a 50% retrace of the pin bar using a limit order. The last option is to place a buy stop above the bullish pin bar’s high and sell stop below the bearish pin bar’s low. http://priceaction.com/wp-content/up...08/pinbar2.png 2. Inside Bar Trading Strategy An inside bar pattern is a two-bar price action strategy in which one of the two bars is placed within the low and high ranges of the previous bar. Inside bars indicate a brief consolidation and then a break out in the dominant trend direction. The inside bar strategy combined with a very strongly trending market is one of the best price action setups that shield you from risks and offer very large rewards. If you look at the chart below you will that a nice inside bar setup formed just after the market broke down below a key support level, the setup has since come off significantly lower and it still continues to fall towards the next support. http://bfbddad795fe6760de935eb7.lttt...ib2.png?c3e76f 3. Fakey trading strategy The fakey trading strategy indicates rejection of an important level within the market. Let me explain it with an example. In the chart below we can see the market was moving up until the fakey was formed. The fakey was formed on the false breakout of the inside bar setup which occurred because some of the amateur traders having been deceived by the price movement tried to pick the market top. Then, there was a restoration of a trend – a false break has been created and closed back within the range of the mother bar (the larger one). http://bfbddad795fe6760de935eb7.lttt...ey1.png?c3e76f There are many other strategies that you could use in your intraday trading. The main advantage of these price action strategies is that they could be used by every trader no matter how long he/she trades in forex markets. And in the fact that they are so simple makes them so credible. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10918 |
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Cherry-blossom trading strategy
10/17/2016 For those who can’t imagine their lives without drinking sake, eating Japanese meals and trading in the Asian sessions, smart people invented a “cherry-blossom” strategy that is considered to be a very profitable and risk-averse. Let me show you how it works. To use it you should plot the Fibonacci retracement levels to the chart. The “cherry-blossom” is based on the assumption of the continuation of a trend. The trends are usually formed in the course of American and European sessions, whereas in the Asian session the prices are moving sideways trying to consolidate, or the quotes move in the opposite direction of the main trends. According to the “cherry-blossom” strategy, we should enter the market as soon as the daily candlestick closes (at the very beginning of the Asian session) and buy/sell in the direction of the trend established during the previous trading sessions (American and European ones). First of all, you should look at the size of the candle (it should be at least 30 points long). Then, you should plot the Fibonacci levels from the low to the high (in case of the bullish trend) and place orders at 23.6, 38.2, and 50% levels. Stop-loss should be set below the low of the candle, and take-profit – below the high of the candle. If at the end of the day you still have some open positions, you should wait for the next day so that your orders are closed. If after two days, your positions are still open, you should remove your orders from the chart manually. All pending orders that were not activated should be removed at the end of the current session. On Friday we stop trading. Some examples: On the chart below, you can see the bearish candlestick with a long body in 70 points (on our chart this candle is divided into several bars, because we use H1 timeframe for clarity). It means that we should trade short. The order should be place above the high of the daily candle, and take-plot should be plotted a bit higher than the low of the candle. From the picture we can see that all three orders had been activated. And the position closed at “take-profit” level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...torgovli-1.png For example, you’ve noticed a bullish candlestick with a size in 35 points. What you should do is to place three orders (Buy limit) at the 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% levels. We can see that only the upper order has been activated. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rgovli-1-2.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10919 |
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GBP/USD & UK CPI: Will we see a breakout of the triangle pattern?
10/18/2016 Today at 08:30 GMT will be published the United Kingdom’s Core Price Index for September (yearly basis), which currently has a 0.6 percent and market’s analysts are expecting to see an increase from 0.6% to 0.9%. During two months in a row, CPI has been showing improvement on its data and September’s release may not be an exemption. The technical overview for GBP/USD at H1 chart is showing a bearish triangle pattern which helps to block further declines in the Sterling below the support level of 1.2143. With a weaker-than-expected reading of CPI, one may expect a breakout lower around that area and next target would be the 1.2022 level. However, if the Cable does a rebound a breaks the 1.2261 resistance level, it can reach the 200 SMA at H1 chart. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSDH1(6).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10920 |
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NZD/USD: "bulls" launched a counterattack
10/18/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, "bulls" managed to repel the attack of "bears" from the lower boundary of the upward trade channel and launched a counter-attack. As a result, traders managed to open longs at the level of 0.704. The nearest resistance level is close to the level of 0.7225. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8_08_16_47.png On the NZD/USD hourly chart, "Shark" inverted pattern shows us that the "bulls" may face a serious hurdle near the level of 0.722. The CD wave is usually followed by the rollback in the direction of 38,2-50% Fibonacci. It will allow us to form new long positions from the level of 0.715. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8_08_17_06.png Recommendations: take profits on the longs at the levels of 0,722-0,7225, BUY 0,715 SL 0,7095 TP1 0,728 TP2 0,735. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10921 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
BGold is laying on the "shelf"
10/18/2016 On the daily char of goldt, "bulls" managed to keep the gold quotes above the key level at $1,250 as soon as AB = CD pattern had been realized. So, there could be a restoration of the upward trend. We might be dealing with the process of accumulation of long positions, therefore, we should keep an eye on the upper boundary of the consolidation. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8_08_21_10.png On the hourly chart of gold, over the past two weeks the quotes are moving sideways within a narrow range of $1250-1267 per ounce. It corresponds to consolidation within the "Splash and ledge" inverted pattern based on the 1-2-3. Breakout of the "shelf" will allow us to form long positions. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8_08_21_29.png Recommendation: BUY 1267 SL 1250 TP1 1300 TP2 1310. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10922 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/USD: the Bulls going to 0.7700
10/18/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7580, 0.7610; resistance – 0.7690. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7690; SL — 0.7710; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7580. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the rising lines of Indicator Ichimoku; a Cloud changed its mood, but the strong support near 0.7700. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(37).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10925 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: the Bulls can’t run
10/18/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.00/10; SL — 103.80; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: an expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(44).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10926 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" led to bullish correction
10/18/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price has reached a resistance at 1.1032. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0978 – 1.0951. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png The price faced a resistance by the 55 Moving Average line, which led to the current consolidation. However, bulls are likely going to get a resistance between the 89 Moving Average and the level at 1.1057. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to deliver another downward price movement. More: [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10927]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10927[/IMG] |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
10/18/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Considering that the price has broken the upper side of the last “Pennant”, bulls are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If buyers be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards the nearest support area at 1.2089 – 1.1726. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png The price found a resistance at 1.2271, but bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2323. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10928 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Tuesday, October 18th
10/18/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(48).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 2 580 ? - 18 613 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1059; 1.1092; 1.1116; 1.1145 Closest support levels 1.1006(?); 1.0980; 1.0959; 1.0933 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1006, with target points at 1.0980 and 1.0959 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1059 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1092 and 1.1116 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(46).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 819 ? + 974 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2291; 1.2326; 1.2348; 1.2372 Closest support levels 1.2200; 1.2181; 1.2141; 1.2106 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2200, with target points at 1.2181 and 1.2141 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2291 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2326 and 1.2348 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(45).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 871 ? + 1 070 ? Closest resistance levels 104.08 (103.97?); 104.42; 104.65; 104.93 Closest support levels 103.10; 102.89; 102.64; 102.33 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.97/104.08, with the target points at 104.42 and 104.65 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.10 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.89 and 102.64 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDCAD(41).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 353 ? + 656 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3149; 1.3168; 1.3200; 1.3242 Closest support levels 1.3074; 1.3043; 1.2999; 1.2945 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3074, with the target points at 1.3043 and 1.2999 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3149 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3168 and 1.3200 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10929 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for October 18
10/18/2016 The euro is taking revenge upon the US dollar. The EUR/USD has raised in the course of the last trading session, and now it continues its rally towards the new resistance level at 1.05. There is no fresh news for today from the eurozone. We will be waiting for the ECB press conference scheduled for Thursday for some clues on the bank’s monetary policy. The US consumer price inflation coming later this day might offer additional support to the USD. Alternatively, if the data are worse-than-expected, we will wait for the euro to rise. AUD/USD has gained momentum on the Asian session, putting on about 50 points. We heard new Governor of the RBA Philip Lowe speaking yesterday. He didn’t send us clear signal about the rate cut in the upcoming board’s minutes. It seems that the RBA will be waiting for inflation data coming on October 26 to shape a stance of its future monetary policy. Today the RBA’s minutes has been released. We saw some concerns over the AUD appreciation and its impact on the economic growth. The board decided not change interest rate, because at that moment it was consistent with RBA’s inflation and growth targets. Another mover of the Asian session is NZD. Kiwi rose on the better-than-expected inflation data for the Q3 and now it is trading around 0.718 and intermittently touches the higher levels. Despite all the attempts of the RBNZ, inflation rates are still extremely low and Kiwi appreciates as if nothing had happened. USD/JPY was muddled a little bit at the beginning of the session falsely moving downward, but then, in a matter of time it awoke to surroundings and started to move back towards the key level at 104. GBP/USD has raised during the last Asian session and touched the 1.2270 resistance line before sliding back to 1.222. Now it’s oscillating near the 1.223 level. The liquidity is perhaps the main factor that defines the current movement of this pair. Today, we expect the GBP to fall, if we get sour data on the UK inflation rate (Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, Producer Price Index). The depreciating pound, inflationary pressures and frustration of businesses’ investment plans exhibit a great challenge for the Bank of England. Policymakers cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% in August. They were intended to cut them once again at the end of the year. But enduring strength of the incoming data showing that the economy managed to shrug off the shock of the “Brexit” vote and continuous depreciation of the pound could divert BOE’s officials from further monetary easing. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10930 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
10/18/2016 EUR/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3 Next sell target - 1.5200 EUR/NZD recently reversed down strongly from the combined resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5740, upper daily Bollinger Band, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from May and the 100-day moving average. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star – which marked the end of the previous minor correction 2. EUR/NZD is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from July) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (which reversed the previous (b)-wave in September). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10932 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/USD reversed from support zone
10/18/2016 NZD/USD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 0.7240 NZD/USD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7080 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier sharp upward impulse from the end of May, as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4). NZD/USD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 0.7240 (former strong support from August and September). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10933 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: wave [ii] started
10/18/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8132806001.png Wave [i] was ended yesterday, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...8132806002.png It seems like wave (v) of [ii] was ended, so there’s a bullish impulse in wave (a), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. If we see a pullback from 2/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (b) shortly. At the same time, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (c) of [ii] afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10934 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/CAD ahead of BoC's interest rate decision: Re-taking the bullish bias?
10/19/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT will be published the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, where the central bank is expected to leave unchanged its benchmark rate at 0.5%, as the analysts are waiting for no changes. At the same time, will be released the monetary policy report, that could bring some further hints in terms of economic policies for coming months. Remember that interest rates from the BoC have been on hold since May 2015. Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is showing a key support around 1.3066, which is slightly below the 200 SMA. With dovish words by the Bank of Canada, the Loonie may perform a strong rebound at current levels and afterward, it can skyrocket towards the 1.3260 level in a first degree. By the other hand, if the pair manages to break the 1.3000 psychological level, then it can test the 1.2900 zone in coming days. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DCADH4(13).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10939 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/CAD: "bulls" are going to counterattack
10/19/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bulls" failed to keep the quotes above resistance at 1.3306, it has become a signal of their weakness. "Bears" pulled down the pair to the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. Here the "bulls" may launch their counterattack. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_22_49.png On the USD/CAD hourly chart, "bulls" are trying to regain their initiative, having broken the boundaries of the downward trading channel. Successful test of resistance at 1,315 may lead to the restoration of uptrend. If the target 127.2% of the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern (1.3) is fulfilled, it will create prerequisites for the attack of "bulls". https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_23_02.png Recommendations: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP1 1,324 TP2 1,3305 BUY 1,3 SL 1,2945 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,324. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10940 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: pound is tired of moving southwards
10/19/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes came closer to the upper boundary of the consolidation range 1,2109-1,2317. Successful test of resistance line will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 1,248 and 1,285. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_18_17.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, "bulls" failed to test the resistance line at 1.2215. Nevertheless, they are still determined to break this important level. If they manage to do so, the targets 78.6% and 127.2% in the "Hartley" and "Crab" patterns will be fulfilled. They are located at the 1.24 and 1.257 levels. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_41_23.png Recommendation: BUY 1,2315 SL 1,226 TP1 1,24 TP2 1,257 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10941 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: on the Cloud support
10/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is falling down; an untypical golden cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the correction may continue in the Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(45).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10942 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: correction may continue
10/19/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2230; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and formed a strong support near 1.2200. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(29).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10943 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for October 19
10/19/2016 Aussie and especially Kiwi did their best in the course of the last trading sessions. Despite the fact that dairy auction results fell short of expectations, kiwi experienced a significant upsurge. It managed to test the resistance above 0.7225 and continued its rally towards the new hurdle at 0.725. But since NZD and AUD outperformed in last sessions, there could be slight roll backs from their current position. In China everything is proceeding according to plan. GDP data, retail sales and fixed asset investment came out in line with expectations. But there is always something that goes wrong. This time industrial production data disappointed Chinese authorities having reached 6.1% instead of forecasted 6.4%. USD is losing its momentum across the trading desk and depreciates in relation to yen, Aussie, EUR, NZD...Well, I guess you got the idea. Pound is lagging again. It struggled to test the resistance at 1.231, but gave in very fast. Now it’s hovering around the 1.227 level. Today the monthly update on the UK labor market will show up. We’ll also see new numbers on US residential housing construction for September. The forecast for these data is neutral. Today we expect USD/CAD to work in a sweat ahead and after the Bank of Canada’s rate statement and monetary policy report. Analysts say that there shouldn’t be any significant changes in the BOC’s monetary stance. Once the dovish tone is caught in the words of BOC, Canadian dollar could slide from its current position (the pair may rise in the direction of 1.317 level. If the BOC decides to keep rate on hold, Loonie may take it out on the US dollar (the pair could fall towards 1.306 – 1.301 area). Oil prices rose significantly on the report of a drop in U.S. crude inventories and declining production in China. Long-awaited OPEC statement on its planned output cut offers additional support to the oil market. A weaker dollar boosted oil as well. International Brent crude futures added almost 40 points from the opening of today’s session. Later on we will receive the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s official crude and fuel storage data. Analysts expect the reduction of oil inventories. It might lift oil prices again. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10944 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Flag" points to new local low
10/19/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a local consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the price is likely going to test a support at 1.0951 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.1045. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.0960 – 1.0951 during the day. At the same time, there’s an option to see an upward movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10945 |
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