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GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
10/19/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2476. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png The 89 Moving Average has acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a local flat. In this case, it’s likely to see a bearish price movement towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476 as an intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10946 |
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Key option levels for Wednesday, October 19th
10/19/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(49).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 68 950 ? + 286 946 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1011; 1.1040/56; 1.1077; 1.1103 Closest support levels 1.0991; 1.0970; 1.0952; 1.0928 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0991, with target points at 1.0970 and 1.0952 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1011 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1040 and 1.1077 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(47).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 402 ? + 199 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2357; 1.2383; 1.2400; 1.2419 Closest support levels 1.2268; 1.2245; 1.2211; 1.2164 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2268, with target points at 1.2245 and 1.2211 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2357 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2383 and 1.2400 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(46).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 674 ? + 797 ? Closest resistance levels 103.94; 104.18/36; 104.59; 104.87 Closest support levels 103.34; 103.19; 102.98; 102.72 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 103.34, with the target points at 103.19 and 102.98 Alternative scenario Moving above 103.94 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 104.18 and 104.59 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10947 |
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Tips on trading NZD from Westpac
10/19/2016 Westpac turns off from the beaten trail and suggests to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD. The kiwi may appreciate in near-term as overall economic activity remains strong across all sectors in New Zealand. Confidence among businesses and consumers doesn’t fade away, and the dairy sector shows green shoots. Despite all these factors NZD may fall in relation to USD because of the looming threat of the RBNZ’ rate cut in November and anticipated rate hike from the Fed. That’s why the Australian bank believes that buying NZD/CHF is safer than NZD/USD (it buys NZD/CHF at 0.7080 with a stop at 0.6995). The inflation data for New Zealand surprised markets yesterday with a stronger than expected print of 0.2%. This lifted the kiwi in relation to other currencies across the trading desk. But the recent bounce in NZD’s movement shouldn’t last long as rate cut expectations continued to build ahead of the RBNZ meeting. So, the decision to trade NZD/CHF instead of NZD/USD could be wise. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...ZDCHFDaily.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10949 |
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EUR/USD & ECB's interest rate decision: Will Draghi provide some hints on further QE "tapering"?
10/20/2016 Today at 11:45 GMT we’ll have the ECB’s interest rate decision, where is highly expected to see that officials will leave unchanged its policies and rates will stay on hold. During the last meeting, economic forecast was changed slightly by Mario Draghi, but today’s headline could be any hints that ECB’s president may provide about a possible QE tapering. If we hear some words about it, then EUR may pop higher, as demand will increase. Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a very weak pair, as the spot is finding support at the 1.0969 level. There is still a high risk to the downside, because if the pair manages to do a breakout there, we could expect another decline towards the 1.0821 level, which is well below the July’s lows. In another scenario, where Draghi’s words may be hawkish or specifically, he brings some hints about QE tapering., we can expect a rebound towards the 1.1154 level in a first degree. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...RUSDH4(29).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10961 |
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AUD/USD: bulls retreat, but don't give up
10/20/2016 On the daily chart AUD/USD reached 0.7710 target of the long positions. The bulls failed to move higher because of the bears' counterattack. Never the less, if Aussie manages to settle above 0.7690, this may be regarded as the retest of the neckline of the inversed "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It will be a signal for opening long positions. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_19_57.png On H1 AUD/USD the break of support at 0.7660 will activate the "Shark" pattern. Its 88.6% target is at 0.7595 level. If the buyers manage to return inside the borders of the short-term channel, they may easily restore the bullish trend. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_20_12.png Recommendation: BUY 0,769 SL 0,7635 TP 0,785 BUY 0,7595 SL 0,7540 TP1 0,769 TP2 0,775. More: [URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10962 |
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EUR/USD: euro is losing firm ground
10/20/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart the bearish trend is resuming. This conclusion may be drawn from the fact that the pair returned to the previous descending channel. The attempts of the bulls to launch a counterattack have failed. The break of support at 1.0950-1.0955 will make the euro resume the decline. Targets are at 1.0895 and 1.0840. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_28_41.png On H1 «Three moves» pattern means that the pair may slide to 1.09 and lower. The nearest resistance lies at 1.1040. It it's tested successfully, we'll see a correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_28_55.png Recommendation: hold short from 1.1. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10963 |
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GBP/USD: trading in the Cloud
10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2230, 1.2260; resistance – 1.2330, 1.2400. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. 2. Buy — 1.2230; SL — 1.2210; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2400. Reason: the prices are inside a Cloud; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but a rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(30).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10964 |
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AUD/USD: testing the September highs
10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7670, 0.7640, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7730. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7730; TP2 — 0.7780. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the rising lines of Indicator Ichimoku. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(38).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10965 |
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USD/JPY: on the bearish pressure
10/20/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.50, 103.05/10; resistance – 103.80, 104.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(47).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10966 |
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EUR/USD: two "Flags" in a row
10/20/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the nearest resistance at 1.1032. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0911. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0978 – 1.1001. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.0951 – 1.0911 during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.0960 – 1.0978. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10967 |
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GBP/USD: resistance by Moving Average
10/20/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price faced a resistance at 1.2323, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089 in the short term. At the same time, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bulls will have a chance to reach the 34 Moving Average. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a flat, which is taking place between the nearest resistance at 1.2323 and the 55 & 34 Moving Averages. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2226 – 1.2132. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2323 – 1.2476. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10968 |
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Key option levels for Thursday, October 20th
10/20/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(50).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 81 420 ? + 205 883 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1030; 1.1047; 1.1070; 1.1098 Closest support levels 1.0974(?); 1.0946; 1.0924 (Critical); 1.0896 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0974, with target points at 1.0946 and 1.0924 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1030 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1047 and 1.1070 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(48).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 583 ? + 562 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2329; 1.2373(56?); 1.2393; 1.2416 Closest support levels 1.2257; 1.2239; 1.2210; 1.2167 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2257, with target points at 1.2239 and 1.2210 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2329 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2373 and 1.2393 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(47).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 784 ? + 1 088 ? Closest resistance levels 103.65; 104.04; 104.31; 104.65 Closest support levels 103.14(?); 102.90; 102.74; 102.54 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.65, with the target points at 104.04 and 104.31 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.14 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.90 and 102.74 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDCAD(42).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 237 ? + 440 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3191; 1.3236; 1.3294; 1.3364 Closest support levels 1.3113; 1.3094; 1.3077; 1.3048 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3191, with the target points at 1.3236 and 1.3294 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3113 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3094 and 1.3077 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10969 |
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AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720
10/20/2016 AUD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7720 Next sell target - 0.7600 AUD/USD today reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7720, which is the lower border of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing this currency pair from April (As you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The upper boundary of this strong resistance zone stands at the resistance level 0.78000 (which reversed the previous primary ABC correction in the middle of April). Given the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/USD can be expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the nearby support level 0.7600. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10970 |
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AUD/NZD reversed from strong resistance level 1.0740
10/20/2016 AUD/NZD reversed from strong resistance level 1.0740 Next sell target - 1.0570 AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier- when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the multi-month resistance level 1.0740 (which has been reversing the price from the end of May), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from April. AUD/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0570 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next round support level 1.0500 (which reversed the previous minor (b)-wave in September). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10971 |
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EUR/USD: correction started
10/20/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10eurusdh4.png The price has been falling down since an “Engulfing” was formed at the local high. However, we’ve got a “Doji” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, but these patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, it’s likely that bulls will try to reach the nearest resistance line, which could be a departure point to a new bearish rally. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10eurusdh1.png We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Tweezers” at the last lows, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, there’s an option to have another decline afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10973 |
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USD/JPY: "High Wave" led to bullish correction
10/20/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10usdjpyH4.png We’ve got a “Belt Hold” at the local low, which has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a resistance by the upper “Window”. Also, we’ve got a confirmed “Dark Cloud” pattern. In this case, bears are likely going to push the market lower soon. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...10usdjpyH1.png There’s a “High Wave” pattern, which has a confirmation. Meanwhile, the nearest Moving Averages are acting as a support. So, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance level during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10974 |
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EUR/USD: diagonal triangle
10/20/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0150555001.png Wave [i] is likely going to end soon, because we’ve got a diagonal triangle in wave (v). So, there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0150555002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave iv of the diagonal triangle is going to end. Therefore, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low shortly. At the same time, there’s an option to have an upward correction later on. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10975 |
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Recap on the BOC rate statement + forecast for USD/CAD
10/20/2016 Yesterday the Bank of Canada announced that it holds rate at 0.5%. Governor Stephen Poloz in his speech delivered later that day noted that the board discussed the possibility of adding stimulus to the staggering economy, but ruled in favor of not changing its monetary stance. The policy makers decided that it would be better not to take any radical measures because of the increasing number of uncertainties related to the effects of the new mortgages rules, the path of exports, the effect of the U.S. election on business confidence and national economy. The bank has already cut interest rates twice this year striving to spur the stubbornly stagnating economic growth. The current interest rates seem to be appropriate for the period of heightened uncertainty, according the BOC’s members. Loonie initially rose after the BOC’s announcement, but Poloz’s comments at the press conference skewed the market bullish sentiment, and the currency slipped a little again. Now the quotes are hovering around the 1.318 level, having broken the resistance line at 1.317 plotted against the 50-day MA. Stochastic stepped in overbought area on the 4H timeframe, so, we may expect USD/CAD to fall down the 1.315 mark (50% Fibonacci retracement level) and the support line at 1.318 in the near-term (also note, that the 50-day MA is almost crossed the 100-day MA, technically, it is considered be a rather good selling signal). Overall sentiment in relation to this currency pair remains bullish, especially if today’s update on the Philly Fed’s regional index and unemployment claims come in ahead of expectations. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DCADH4(14).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10976 |
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Oil prices down again
10/20/2016 Oil prices were rising during the last consecutive trading sessions. Energy Information Administration figures released on Wednesday were in line with expectations. The EIA’s data showed a significant decrease in the US crude inventories by almost 469 mln barrels. This offered additional support to the oil prices. Today oil fell on profit-taking after the last trading session. Brent crude slipped down the $51.63 mark. Despite this drop, sentiment remains upbeat on hopes that OPEC will freeze oil production at its meeting in Vienna on November 30. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that Saudi Arabia is planning not only to freeze, but also to curb the current production volumes pursuing the target of oil glut reduction. However, we should consider the fact that usually in summer Saudis increase oil output substantially, while in autumn it normally decreases. Saudis will try to bluff everybody into believing that their seasonal reduction of oil output is their attempt to fulfill their obligations under the oil freeze deal. Another thing to beware of it that the OPEC members are going to cut their production of oil only for a period of 6 months or year. Then, they might try to catch up and increase their market share. So, the reduction of global oil glut followed by significant rise in prices on this fuel is more like a pipe dream, than reality in a long perspective. Baker Hughes rig count figures are due out Friday. Higher prices could encourage an increase in U.S. shale activity. The dollar index is higher today. A stronger dollar may also depress demand for oil and force quotes to fall down the key support at $50 level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...B%D0%B9(3).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10977 |
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30 Pips A Day Forex Trading Strategy
10/20/2016 Today I am going to tell you a story of a guy named Fred who managed to earn $1,000,000 with just 40 trades. Very impressive, I agree. Here is one of the strategies he suggests. It’s called a 30 pips a day forex trading strategy. You know that GBP/JPY is rather volatile currency pair that can make big swings (from 100-200 pips). So, our aim is not to capture all this price margin in the course of a trading session, but just 30 pips. Once we are done with embellishment of a story, we can proceed to real things – the description of the strategy. “Key ingredients”: Choose GBP/JPY currency pair Switch to the 5 minutes’ screen Add some indicators to your chart: 10 and 26 exponential moving averages (EMA) How to trade: If 10 EMA intersects 26 EMA and goes up, we are facing with an uptrend. If 10 EMA intersects 26 EMA and goes down, there is a downtrend. After we found the EMA’s crosses, we should identify traders’ action zone (a reversal zone, a zone of buying or selling depending or what the market main trend is). It occurs at the end of the minor rally in the dominant bullish trend Imagine that the market main trend is down, there could be some minor rally in a downtrend market. That price rally (short-term upward price move) usually ends in a traders’ action zone when the price starts falling in the direction of the main trend again. A similar in logic, but opposite situation also happens if the market is bullish. Your actions in the case of a downtrend: You notice that 10 EMA crosses 26 EMA and goes down. You don’t sell immediately after the formation of the cross; you should wait for a retrace. Then, you sell immediately when a candlestick gets into the traders’ action zone halfway between the 10 EMA and 26 EMA. You place stop loss at 15-20 pips Your take profit target is 30 pips Your actions in the case of an uptrend: You notice that 10 EMA crosses 26 EMA and goes down. You don’t buy immediately after the formation of the cross; you should wait for a retrace. Then, you buy immediately when a candlestick gets into the traders’ action zone halfway between the 10 EMA and 26 EMA. You should place stop loss at 15-20 pips Your take profit target is 30-40 pips More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10979 |
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USD/CHF: bulls brought the situation under control
10/21/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, quotes move towards target 127.2% located at 1,007 in the "Ideal butterfly" inverted pattern. The "bulls" managed to push quotes out of the consolidation range of 0,985-0,992. If there is a retest of the support at 0.992, it will be a signal for opening long positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_12_36.png On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there are great risks of realization of the target 261.8% located at the 1.0015 level in the AB = CD pattern. There is the upper limit of the upward trading channel. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_12_54.png Recommendation: BUY 0,992 SL 0,9865 TP1 1,0015 TP2 1,007. More; https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10980 |
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USD/JPY: bears are setting a trap
10/21/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" are trying to regain the initiative in their hands. If there is a test of the resistance line located at 104.45, it could open the way towards the target 78.6% (105.8) in the "Hartley" inverted pattern. The support line lies near the 103.5 mark. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_18_54.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, if "bulls" fail to break the resistance line at 104.55, it will be a signal of their weakness. If it happens, the quotes may roll back towards the support at 103.5, followed by patterning of the expanding wedge. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...1_08_19_09.png Recommendation: SELL 104,55 SL 105,10 TP 103,5 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10981 |
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Morning brief for October 21
10/21/2016 Euro fell down the 1.0892 level as the ECB left its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, but kept the door wide open for the more stimulus to boost staggering Eurozone economic growth. The ECB president Mario Draghi doused the recent paper hoax that the bank is going to taper its 1.7 trillion euro asset-buying program. So, in the near-term we may expect further broad USD strengthening across the trading desk. US dollar, having taken dope from the ECB press conference, rose in relation to yen and franc in the course of last trading session. Today the yen managed to get its own back after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank may slow its bond purchases, if 10-year government bond yields fall well below its target of around 0%. BOJ once again had to push back the timing for reaching its 2% inflation target. Sterling slipped down the 1.2234 level on the USD strengthening and on the comments from D. Tusk (president of the European Council) that Theresa May had confirmed to trigger Brexit talks by end March 2017. Aussie dropped significantly over the last trading sessions, but now it has finally started to show the revival signs as quotes failed to reach the support at 0.7615 level (50-day MA). On the gold chart, a new downtrend is showing up. Gold lost a few dollars since yesterday. There are no any significant events scheduled for today. We will keep an eye on the Canadian inflation data coming soon. Also, there will be EU Economic Summit, but it shouldn’t bring volatility to technical charts. Morre: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10982 |
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EUR/USD: time for correction
10/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The last consolidation was finally ended the yesterday’s bearish rally. The price faced a support at 1.0896, but the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0847. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current decline. Considering a support at 1.0896, bulls are likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0929 – 1.0951 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area be on the table, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0896 – 1.0847. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10983 |
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GBP/USD: angry bears ready to move on
10/21/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the closest resistance at 1.2323. So, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2226 – 1.2089 in the short term. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will have an opportunity to test the 34 Moving Average. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png The price is moving up and down between the levels 1.2330 – 1.2226. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2132 during the day. However, there’s an option to have a local bullish correction afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10984 |
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Forecasts for EUR/USD from CITI bank
10/21/2016 CITI is short EUR/USD from 1.1080 with target at 1.0525. The bank traced the formation of the Head and shoulders” pattern on the EUR/USD daily timeframe indicating a possible downfall in the upcoming days. The first major support is located in the 1.0822 – 1.0826 area. Below these levels the losses may extend towards the next support lines located at 1.0458 and 1.0524 levels accordingly. Fundamentally, there are several reasons that could confirm the technical picture described above. While the Fed is considering the rate hike in the near-term, the ECB will unlikely make any moves towards tightening being overwhelmed with concerns about the efficacy of the low interest rates. Inflation expectations in American continent are much more elevated than in the world of Grand Dame Europe. The European yields compare poorly with their American homologues. American yields provide more profits with lesser risks, whereas Europe offers very lower spreads with high risks. Brexit creates an uncertainty for the European Union as well as the UK The recent scandal with Deutsche Bank showed the fragility of the European baking system and raised some concerns about capitalization of European banks. Italian referendum scheduled for December 4 weights on the future of the Eurozone. Immigration crisis + high risk of political instability is hovering in the air. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(23).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/10985 |
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GBP/USD ahead of BoE's Carney speech: Coming up next, dovish words?
10/25/2016 Today at 14:35 GMT we expect a speech from the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney, as he’ll testify at the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee in London, United Kingdom. Because of the overall Sterling’s bearish bias, any dovish words by Carney should add pressure on the British currency and eventually, such moves can open the doors to test flash crash’s lows across the board. The technical overview for GBP/USD at H1 chart is still bearish, as the Cable is forming a lower triangle. However, The pair is attempting to consolidate above the 200 SMA and one breakout above the 1.2242 level can send it to test the 1.2300 handle. If Carney has some bearish words present during his testimony, then we should expect a lower breakout of the 1.2175 level, in order to test the 1.2144 price zone. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...BPUSDH1(7).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11019 |
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GBP/USD: bears are not active
10/25/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2170, 1.2200; resistance – 1.2230/50. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2230; SL — 1.2250; TP1 — 1.2130; TP2 — 1.2100. 2. Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2330; TP2 — 1.2360. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span A and B; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but lines are horizontal; the prices are under a Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...pusdh4(32).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11020 |
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AUD/USD: volatility in a Cloud
10/25/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7610; resistance – 0.7670. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7710. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of a Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(40).png More: [URL=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11021 https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11021[URL] |
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USD/JPY: bulls have won
10/25/2016 Technical levels: support – 104.20, 104.00; resistance – 105.20, 105.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.20; SL — 104.00; TP1 — 105.20; TP2 — 105.70. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(48).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11022 |
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EUR/USD: bears took a break
10/25/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, quotes failed to fulfill the target at 1,084 on short positions. The euro got into the convergence zone located within 1,0836-1,0896 levels. Its boundaries correspond to the Targets 113% and 127.2% of the "Crab" pattern. If there is a break of the resistance line, there could be a rebound towards the 1,095 level. If there is a successful test of support, the quotes will continue to fall towards the 1.0692 mark. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...5_08_34_54.png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, if "bulls" once again attack the 1.09 level, the "Bat" inverted pattern will be activated. It could lead to the correction in the direction of 1,093 and 1,095 levels. In the "bearish" market, the rollbacks should be used for opening short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...5_08_36_29.png Recommendations: SELL 1,093 SL 1,0985 TP1 1,0835 TP2 1,07 SELL 1,095 TP1 1,0835 TP2 1,07. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11023 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: pound stayed too long in the consolidation zone
10/25/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, the quotes continue to stay in the consolidation zone at 1.2109 - 1.2317. Its boundaries correspond to the targets 224% of the "Deep-water crab" pattern and AB=CD pattern. Breakout of the resistance line will increase the risks of rebound towards the 1.248 mark and higher. In contrast, successful test of the support line will contribute to the restoration of the downward trend. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...5_08_39_00.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a "Spike and ledge" pattern based on the 1-2-3. The boundaries of the ledge are located at 1,214 and 1.2315 levels. Traders should bid for a breakout of one of these boundaries. If they are broken successfully, traders will be able to open long positions towards 1.24 and 1,257 marks or short positions. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...5_08_39_14.png Recommendations: BUY 1,2315 SL 1,226 TP1 1,24 TP2 1,257 SELL 1,214 SL 1,2175 TP1 1,204 TP2 1,188. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11024 |
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Morning brief for October 25, 2016
10/25/2016 CAD was the mover of the last trading session having dropped after Bank Canada Governor Stephen Poloz announced that the bank is going to keep rates on hold for another 18 months. Then, Canadian dollar rebounded from its seventh-month low (1.3280) after Poloz clarified its statement saying that he mentioned the need to wait 18 months referring to the time period over which the output gap should be closed. The GBP/USD slipped additional points in the course of the last session; now it continues its sideward movement along the 50-day MA (1.224) on the 4H timeframe. Today we will keep in focus the BOE’s Governor Mark Carney speaking at the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee in London at 14:35 GMT. If he is in favor of doves, the pound may slide down further from its present positions. Aussie lost some ground for a while, but then it got some momentum from the rise in Dalian iron ore futures +coal prices ticked the new peaks. What can you do, AUD is a commodity currency. Kiwi also experienced an uplift; not it continues its rally towards the resistance line located at 0.7186. There are small changes in the position of USD/JPY. There was a modest move higher from 104.20 to 104.41 or so. Overnight, U.S. oil dropped on Monday, after Iraq said it wanted to be exempt from any output cut deal by the OPEC. Then, the market managed to digest this news and recovered from its $50.48 drop. Now Brent oil futures are trading at $51.41 per barrel. Next significant moves we may expect from the tomorrow’s data on the US crude oil inventories. The USD got some strengths from the better-than-expected US manufacturing PMI sending the euro to its February lows. Today at 3:30 GMT we will hear the ECB President Draghi speaking once again, but no worries, it seems that this time there shouldn’t be last Thursday’s toing and froing followed by the euro’s tremendous drop. Also, today we will keep an eye on the monthly update of the CB consumer confidence index. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11026 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Tuesday, October 25th
10/25/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11027/EURUSD(53).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 112 834 ? - 8 530 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0917; 1.0941; 1.0961; 1.0988 Closest support levels 1.0863; 1.0840; 1.0811; 1.0775 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0863, with target points at 1.0840 and 1.0811 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0917 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0941 and 1.0961 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11027/GBPUSD(51).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 024 ? + 1 643 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2275; 1.2303; 1.2323; 1.2346 Closest support levels 1.2214; 1.2195; 1.2162; 1.2139 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2214, with target points at 1.2195 and 1.2162 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2275 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2303 and 1.2323 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11027/USDJPY(49).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 452 ? + 1 059 ? Closest resistance levels 104.58; 104.82; 105.14; 105.53 Closest support levels 103.90; 103.63; 103.40; 103.10 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.58, with the target points at 104.82 and 105.14 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.90 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.63 and 103.40 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11027/USDCAD(45).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 318 ? + 140 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3373; 1.3389; 1.3407; 1.3439 Closest support levels 1.3333; 1.3307; 1.3266; 1.3210 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3373, with the target points at 1.3389 and 1.3407 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3333 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3307 and 1.3266 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11027 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Beware of the UK High Court decision on Brexit legality
10/25/2016 According to Deutsche Bank, the UK High Court should decide this week whether the government has the authority to trigger the legal process of leaving the European Union without a parliamentary vote or not. What decision to expect? If the High Court decides in favor of the government, and this is upheld by the Supreme Court, the government will proceed with its current plan to trigger Article 50 pf Lisbon treaty by the end of March 2017. If the High Court rules in favor of the claimant (Gina Miller, an investment manager, and anti-Brexit campaigner), the outcome is less predictable. The claimants’ litigation concerns the legality of the Brexit process, but the judges of the High Court may feel that prescribing next steps is out of the area of the court’s jurisdiction, and leave interpretation to the Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court rules against the government, it would increase the probability of a parliamentary vote on the triggering of the Brexit process. How markets can react? The market is likely to react positively to a decision against the government because it would eliminate the probability of “hard Brexit”. Although the majority of forecasts assume a vote in favor of the government, we would recommend to take precautions and shield yourself from risks of trading short on the pound. The result of this case is likely to meaningfully increase political uncertainty in the UK and potentially burst into the constitutional crisis followed by a new general election. The prospect of denial of June’s decision remains very slim. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11028 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bearish "Flag"
10/25/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0847, which led to the current consolidation. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.0821. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the closest support at 1.0847. Considering the bearish “Flag”, which hasn’t finished yet, the price is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.0896 – 1.0911 during the day. If we have a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0821. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11029 |
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GBP/USD: flat inside "Wedge"
10/25/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. There’s a possible “Rising Wedge” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2089 in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png There’s the 89 Moving Average, which is likely going to act as a resistance soon. At the same time, if a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11030 |
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Forecasts for AUD/USD ahead of the Australian CPI release
10/25/2016 Aussie surged today on the rising commodity prices having broken the resistance line at 0.7603. Now it paves its way towards the cherished resistance line at 0.7737. Tomorrow we will be waiting for the Australian Consumer Price Index quarterly update. The index measures the change in the consumer prices of goods and services. It is believed that it could seriously affect the AUD/USD movement. If the data come within the market expectations, AUD/USD could show some fluctuation, but remain in range. If the data are worse-than-expected, the pair could slide down to the support located at 0.7582. Analysts from Australian National Bank (NAB) recommend getting short anywhere above the 0.77 mark with a stop loss above the 0.7835 level and target at 0.75. The greenback remains strong with anticipation of December Fed’s rate hike and positive economic data coming from the US, while the overall sentiment towards Aussie remains bearish. The NAB supports its recommendations with technical chart analysis and some observations. Last week we got a rather mixed data on Australian labor market. The unemployment rate improved slightly, but the market lost 9.8K jobs; the latter data dragged the Aussie from its high (from the 0.7735 mark) to its present positions. The NAB analysts note that there was the identical situation on 8 September when the pair made almost the same high, but then traded down over the 3 consecutive days to a low of 0.7442. So, they believe that there should be a “history repeating”. Meanwhile, today’s sentiment towards this currency pair is rather bullish. So, our analysts recommend you to trade AUD/USD long in a short-term. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(19).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11031 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/CAD rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
10/25/2016 NZD/CAD rising inside impulse waves 3 and (3) Next buy target - 0.9640 NZD/CAD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the active minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.9300 (low of wave (ii)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the end of April. The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3). NZD/CAD is expected to continue to rise in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 0.9640 (which reversed the price multiple times in September). [IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11032/NZDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Oct-25_1153_AM_(1_day).png[/IG] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11032 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/JPY reversed from support level 78.70
10/25/2016 AUD/JPY reversed from support level 78.70 Next buy target - 81.00 AUD/JPY continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the support level 78.70 (former resistance level and the upper boundary of the sideways price channel from August, acting as support now after it was broken). The upward reversal from the support level 78.70 continues the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from the end of June. AUD/JPY is expected to rise to the nearby resistance level 80.00 (which reversed the pair last week) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next buy target at the resistance level 81.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...AM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11033 |
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