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GBP/USD: "Triple Top" stopped bulls
10/28/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png The last “Pennant” has been broken, so the price meet with a support at 1.2135. The next target is a support at 1.2089. If this level turns out to be broken, the market is going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern arrives. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “Triple Top” on the one-hour chart. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.2089 – 1.2081. If bears smash this area, we could have a massive decline afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11085 |
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AUD/USD weekly outlook for Oct.31-Nov.4
10/28/2016 AUD/USD spearheaded on Wednesday having reached the 0.7708 resistance line as the inflation data went ahead of expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.7% in the last quarter followed by a moderate rise of 0.4% in June. The quarterly increase could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting of Reserve Bank of Australia scheduled for November 1. But with persistently low annual inflation rate hardly reaching bank’s 2-3% target and below-trend domestic activity, the prospect of a rate cut should not be discarded in the longer-term. Having surged on Wednesday, Aussie lost its momentum and started sliding back towards the support at 0.7563 located against the 100-day MA. All this happened due to the US dollar strengthening as the market anticipates a rate hike in December. Next week should bring volatility to the chart as there will be the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, the FOMC’s meeting on November 2 and bunch of Australian statistical data (annual commodity prices, trade balance, the monthly update of the retail sales report). We should also pay attention to building approvals reflecting current constructing activity, one of the main Aussie’s drivers in the last consecutive months. In the light of the FOMC’s meeting, we would rather be bearish on AUD/USD from current levels towards the nearest supports located at 0.7550 (trendline) and at 0.7470 (200-day MA on the daily timeframe). The RBA is more likely to stay on hold this meeting maintaining an easing bias as economic activity and inflation risks are still skewed to the downside. In contrast, the perspective of the Fed’s rate hike in December looks more brightly than ever. We should also keep in mind that AUD is a commodity currency. Possible tightening restrictions in China and the country’s commitment to cut carbon emissions under Paris Agreement could lead to a slowdown in its commodity demand and drag commodity prices from their present positions. And Aussie may fall with them. Alternatively, if there is an increase in commodity prices, or if we get some positive statistical releases from Australia, AUD/USD will be up to test 0.7650, 0.7700 resistance lines once again. Also, Aussie may rise significantly if we hear some “dovish” statements/comments from the FOMC members. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(20).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11088 |
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EUR/USD: bulls going to break local high
10/28/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh4.png We’ve got a “High Wave” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave” patterns, which both have a confirmation. Therefore, the current upward correction is going to be continued towards the last “Thrusting Line” pattern’s level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10eurusdh1.png There’s another “High Wave” on the one-hour chart. At the same time, we’ve got a “Shooting Star” on the 89 Moving Average. So, there’s an opportunity to have a consolidation during the day. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high afterwards. More https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11089 |
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USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as support
10/28/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH4.png The last “Three Methods” pattern has done a great job, cause the price is still rising. Moreover, there’s an opportunity to have another “Three Methods”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to reach the nearest resistance level. As we can see on the Daily chart, the nearest “Window” has been broken, so bulls are free to move on until any reversal pattern arrives. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...10usdjpyH1.png There’s a very strong bullish trend on the one-hour chart. However, we’ve got a “Doji” at the local high, so the price is likely going to get a support on the 13 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new high. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11090 |
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USD/JPY: outlook for Oct. 31 - Nov. 4
10/28/2016 USD/JPY has risen significantly this week having reached the 105.4 from 103.8. This can be referred to the US dollar strengthening on the anticipation of a rate hike in December. Yesterday we got a package of inflation data from Japan. Japan’s deflated economy experienced little evidence of price growth since August. Core inflation in Tokyo fell at 0.4%. National core inflation came in line with expectations (-0,5%). The USD/JPY showed a blip in response to the data, having lost some points, but then, started rising again. Next week we will be anxious to get more hints on what the Bank of Japan will do next to spur inflation. It is widely expected to stand pat as Japan’s economic situation is not so different from that in late September, when the bank held its previous policy meeting. Back then the BOJ shifted its policy target to the yield curve instead of having recourse to a rate cut. The introduction of the cutting-edge policy of “yield curve control” was aimed at alleviating the negative impact of drastic quantitative easing. Last week, Kuroda said that the BOJ will have to push back the time frame for hitting the inflation target once again. It is going to be the fifth time since Kuroda’s tenure. Lowering crude oil prices, tepid domestic demand and financial market instability brought to naught repetitive attempts of the bank to reach its inflation goal over three years. Recently, we saw oil prices turning upward due to the anticipation of the oil output cut initiated by OPEC nations, this partially causes the yen to fall. A possible rate hike by the Fed could also weaken the yen against the greenback and help to push up consumer prices as Japan heavily depends on import. All these factors let the BOJ’s senior officials draw a rather positive picture for reaching their inflation goal in the future and hold off on the rate cut at this meeting. Next week the yen has all chances to depreciate further against the US dollar. If FOMC members sound “hawkish” in the course of their meeting and if the BOJ divert from further easing, the pair may surge higher or continue to consolidate at its present level (at 105.2). Any disturbing manufacturing, labor data from the US could send the USD/JPY towards the nearest support lines located at 104.6, 104.1 (50-day MA), 103.9 (100-day MA) levels. Watch closer a bunch of the US releases on consumer prices, personal spending/income, manufacturing data releases coming on Tuesday and Thursday, statistical data on the labor market (NFP, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings) at the end of the week. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DJPYH4(19).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11091 |
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GBP/CHF reversed from resistance zone
10/28/2016 GBP/CHF reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.2000 GBP/CHF recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.2200 (top of the earlier minor correction (a)), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the pervious downward impulse (v) from the end of September and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from June. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone started the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from September. GBP/CHF is likely to fall to the next sell target at the round support level 1.2000 (low of the earlier impulse wave 1). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11092 |
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EUR/GBP reversed from support zone
10/28/2016 EUR/GBP reversed from support zone Next buy target - 0.9100 EUR/GBP continues to rise inside the (b)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from the start of this month. The active (b)-wave started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8900 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier upward impulse from the end of September (as can be seen from the daily EUR/GBP chart below). EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active (b)-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9100 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 earlier this month). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11093 |
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EUR/USD: double zigzag in wave [ii]
10/28/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8151803001.png It seems like wave (v) inside wave [i] was extended. So, there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. If we see a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), bears are likely going to deliver just another downward impulse. [IMG] https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11094/Image20161028151803002.png[/IMG] As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave [ii] is taking form of a double zigzag. Perhaps, wave (x) was ended yesterday. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver another zigzag in wave (y). The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11094 |
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GBP/USD: outlook for Oct. 31 - Nov. 4
10/28/2016 GBP/USD remained under pressure during the past week. British economic growth in Q3 exceeded expectations of 0.3% as it came out at 0.5%. The fact that the pound declined despite better-than-expected growth figures highlights how much the market is concerned about Brexit. The illustration of this is that yields on 10-year gilts rose to the maximal levels since the Brexit vote. The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. All in all, better economic figures released so far made the market think that the central bank won’t do additional policy easing. The BoE Governor Mark Carney has recently said that the central bank’s efforts had a positive impact on Britain’s economy and that there were limits to the central bank’s ability to ignore the effects of depreciating pound on inflation. Expectations of the BoE on hold provide some support for the sterling. At the same time, Brexit fears seem to prevail over the UK’s relatively bring economic releases. British government hasn’t disclosed the terms it wants after the nation leaves the European Union, so Britain remains in the situation of uncertainty. Other events in the UK economic calendar include GBP/USD has made a lower high in the 1.2770 area. A close below 1.2100 will confirm the resumption of the downtrend opening way for a decline to 1.2000 and 1.1900. Note though that the amount of GBP short positioning is very high, and short covering may trigger a sharp short-term rebound of the British currency. That’s why risk management is very important for trading GBP/USD at this point. Resistance is at 1.2270 and 1.2330. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...DDaily(21).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11095 |
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US dollar: outlook for Oct. 31 - Nov. 1
10/28/2016 US dollar index consolidated around 98.70. The currency gained, though bullish momentum has somewhat declined. The market expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December. According to CME, futures market sees about 70% probability of such move. Advance data showed that US economic growth accelerated from 1.4% in Q2 to 2.9% versus the forecast of 2.5%. The American economy grew at the fastest pace in 2 years driven by higher exports and inventory investment, though somewhat offset by offsetting a slowdown in consumer spending. The Fed will meet on Wednesday, November 2, but this meeting isn’t regarded seriously by the market. No moves are expected from the US central bank until after the US presidential election passes. With the market expecting a rate hike at the end of this year the Fed’s policymakers don’t need to sound very hawkish and significantly change September statement. In September, the regulator said that the case for a rate hike has strengthened, but it’s necessary to have more evidence of the economic recovery. Apart from the Fed’s meeting, the US economic calendar is full of important events. Core PCE price index, personal spending, and Chicago PMI are due on Monday, while ISM manufacturing PMI will be published on Tuesday. ADP employment report will be released on Wednesday, unemployment claims, and ISM services PMI will come out on Tuesday, while Friday will be market by the increased volatility because of nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and other pieces of the US labor market data. Next week the greenback may test support at 98.00 and 97.65 for the US dollar index. Trading will be very data dependent. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11096/usd.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11096 |
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Key option levels for Tuesday, November 1st
11/1/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11123/EURUSD(56).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 114 184 ? + 49 619 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1000; 1.1037; 1.1070; 1.1111 Closest support levels 1.0950; 1.0923; 1.0887; 1.0844 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0950, with target points at 1.0923 and 1.0887 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1000 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1037 and 1.1070 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11123/GBPUSD(53).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 526 ? + 470 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2266; 1.2301; 1.2322; 1.2349 Closest support levels 1.2205; 1.2182; 1.2153; 1.2119 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2205, with target points at 1.2182 and 1.2153 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2266 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2301 and 1.2322 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11123/USDJPY(53).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 53 ? + 259 ? Closest resistance levels 104.78; 105.08; 105.29; 105.60 Closest support levels 104.67(?); 104.44; 104.19; 103.86 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 104.78, with the target points at 105.08 and 105.29 Alternative scenario Moving below 104.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 104.44 and 104.19 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11123/USDCAD(49).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 101 ? - 9 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3425; 1.3452; 1.3490; 1.3548 Closest support levels 1.3383; 1.3353; 1.3300; 1.3231 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3425, with the target points at 1.3452 and 1.3490 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3383 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3353 and 1.3300 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11123 |
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EUR/USD: going to Senkou Span B
11/1/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0970; resistance – 1.1000, 1.1040. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0970; SL — 1.0950; TP1 — 1.1040; TP2 – 1.1060. Reason: golden cross of the rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is rising; the prices are inside the Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...rusdh4(50).png More" https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11125 |
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AUD/USD: unexpected start of bulls
11/1/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7650; resistance – 0.7680. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7650; SL — 0.7630; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7740. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel of the lines; the prices are in positive zone. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(45).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11126 |
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USD/JPY: bulls wants to continue uptrend
11/1/2016 Technical levels: support – 104.80; resistance – 105.20, 105.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 105.00; SL — 104.80; TP1 — 105.70; TP2 — 106.10. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span B; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are fixed over Tenkan and Kijun. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(51).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11127 |
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Your volatility calendar for November
11/1/2016 Wednesday, Nov. 2 at 20:00 EET (Eastern European Time (EET) is time displayed in MetaTrader4. During Daylight-Saving Time, EET is 3 hours ahead of Greenwich Mean Time (GMT +3). During Standard (Winter) Time, EET is 2 hours ahead of GMT (GMT +2)) FOMC Meeting The US Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates at this meeting. Never the less, the event can still make market players nervous and provoke sharp moves of the US dollar versus other currencies. Traders will study FOMC statement for clues to the central bank’s plans for future. The release is scheduled on 20:00 EET. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...-wave-wink.jpg Thursday, Nov. 3 (14:00 EET) Bank of England’s Meeting & Press Conference The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee members will announce the results of their vote on the interest rates and other policy tools at 14:00 EET. Then the BOE Governor Mark Carney will comment the Committee’s decision and answer the reporters’ questions. Volatility is usually observed during the meeting and the press conference. Beware of the changes in the movement of GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. Friday, Nov. 4 (14:30 EET) US Non-Farm Payrolls The release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report at 14:30 EET is perhaps the most volatile event of the week. Highlight November 4 in your calendar, as NFP is a major profit/troublemaker indicator that represents the overall number of paid workers in the US excluding farm and government employees, as well as people working for nonprofit organizations. The Fed closely watches this report to define its interest rate. Last report figures fell short of expectations (only 156K jobs were created instead of forecasted 171K). Don’t forget about other important releases coming out on November 4 – trade balance, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings – they could also influence the USD exchange rate. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11128/nfp05.05.jpg Tuesday, Nov. 8 (All day) US Presidential Election US Presidential election is certainly the key event of the month. The main candidates are Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and her Republican counterpart Donald Trump. Prepare for the enormous, frantic fluctuations of quotes on your trading desk, as markets are going to react regardless of the election outcome. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...trump_nyse.jpg Wednesday, Nov. 9 RBNZ Meeting & Press Conference (22:00 EET) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand board will announce its decision on the interest rate at 22:00 EET. We will also receive the report that brings us up to date on the central bank’s monetary policy and inflation targets. The RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will speak at the press conference, which starts at 23:00 EET. Wheeler’s comments sometimes create heavy market volatility. Beware of this while trading NZD/USD. Tuesday, Nov. 15 British Inflation (11:30 EET) The UK consumer price index due at 11:30 EET is an important indicator for the Bank of England. The higher the growth of consumer prices is, the harder it becomes for the BOE to keep interest rates low. The central bank’s policy, in turn, has a direct impact on the pound. GBP/USD and EUR/GBP should react to the CPI release. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11128/London(1).jpg US Retail Sales (14:30 EET) US retail sales provide valuable information on the nation’s economic performance and show whether the nation is ready to raise interest rates or not. The indicator will be released at 15:30 EET and should be watched by those who have positions in the US dollar. Thursday, Nov. 17 (14:30 EET) US Inflation Watch the US consumer price index release at 15:30 EET as It could influence the USD valuation in relation to other currencies. The index measures average price of various goods and services and compares it with the previous sampling. Inflation is one of the indicators that Federal Reserve’s members watch to define the interest rate. So, the market will react to any deviations from the forecasted figures. Wednesday, Nov. 23 FOMC Meeting Minutes (21:00 EET) The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s November meeting due at 21:00 EET will be important for all currency pairs containing the US dollar. The market will want to know where the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stand and whether they are prepared to raise the federal fund's rate in December. Hawkish minutes will support USD, while dovish minutes will be negative for the American currency. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...y_-938x535.jpg Friday, Nov. 25 (11:30 EET) Second Estimate of British GDP The UK Q3 GDP is released for the second time with adjustments at 11:30 EET. The data will provide more information on how British economy is coping in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. The indicator will influence the exchange rate of the British pound. Tuesday, Nov. 29 (14:30 EET) US Prelim GDP This is the second estimate of the US economic performance in Q3. Deviations from the forecast level will have a significant impact on the US dollar. The indicator will be published at 15:30 EET. Wednesday, Nov. 30 OPEC Meetings The members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a preliminary agreement to limit the group’s daily production to between 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day at the end of September. On November 30, the oil exporters meet in Vienna to define the levels of production for each country. OPEC encompasses 40% of the world’s oil supply, so traders will be closely watching this meeting to find clues on which way oil prices will go. The meetings are usually closed to the press, but senior officials are open to the reporters and willingly answer questions throughout the day. A formal statement, the cartel’s objectives and takeaways from the discussions are usually released after the meeting, but the volatility will be surely sensed during the whole day. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2095102(2).jpg More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11128 |
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EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver new high
11/1/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The 55 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.1001. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an option to have a bearish correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a consolidation near the 34 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to rise in the direction of the closest support at 1.1004. At the same time, if a pullback happens, bears will probably try to deliver a decline. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11129 |
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GBP/USD: "Rectangle" going to move on
11/1/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a “Rectangle” pattern, so the current consolidation is likely going to be continued. The main intraday target is the 55 Moving Average. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will have a chance to reach a support at 1.2089. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current bullish movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2248. So, after a local correction, bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2271 – 1.2297. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11130 |
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EUR/USD: "Advance Block" stopped buyers
11/1/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdh4.png We’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern, so the market is likely going to continue rising in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest resistance level. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdh1.png There’s an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, we’ve got an “Advance Block” pattern. If it confirms, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards the Moving Averages. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11132 |
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USD/JPY: consolidation going to move on
11/1/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png There’s a “Harami” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level arrives, bears will probably try to deliver a local decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” at the last high, but this pattern doesn’t have a confirmation. So, it’s likely to see a local upward correction and a possible decline afterwards. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH1.png The “Window” acted as a support, so we’ve got a pullback. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support line, which could be a departure point to another upward movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11133 |
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“What if analysis” of markets after presidential election
11/1/2016 As the most acrimonious US election is drawing to a close, financial markets keep fingers crossed for Hillary Clinton as she could maintain the status quo, whereas Trump’s victory would resemble the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Controversy over Hillary Clinton’s e-mails could cause a fundamental shift in the presidential race and spread panic among investors. So, we decided to give you some prompts ahead of November 8 on what could happen with markets after the election. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...0%B8%D1%8F.jpg https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%B9%D0%B43.JPG https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...%B9%D0%B43.JPG Written on the basis of Bloomberg's article More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11134 |
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AUD/USD reversed from support area
11/1/2016 AUD/USD reversed from support area Next buy targets - 0.7720 and 0.7800 AUD/USD recently reversed once again from the support area lying between the support level 0.7600 (which stopped the earlier (a)-wave in October) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from the middle of September. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the (c)-wave of the earlier minor ABC correction (ii). AUD/USD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the key resistance level 0.7720 (which has been reversing the pair from August) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next buy target at 0.7800 (which stopped the earlier primary impulse wave ? in April). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11135 |
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AUD/JPY broke round resistance level 80.00
11/1/2016 AUD/JPY broke round resistance level 80.00 Next buy target - 81.40 AUD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 80.00, which has been steadily reversing the pair from the middle of last month (as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The breakout of the resistance level 80.00 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of September (which is itself a part of the primary wave ?-wave from the end of June). AUD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 81.40 (top of the previous waves 4 and (A) and the forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11136 |
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EUR/USD & Fed interest rate decision: Will we see a
top in the Euro today? 11/2/2016 Today at 18:00 GMT we’ll have the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision’s meeting before US elections due on next week. Markets had been pricing a possible rate hike by the central bank in December’s meeting, as the odds are still higher. However, recent Clinton and Trump’s headlines have been driving the moves in the US dollar across the board, meaning that is highly likely today’s meeting won’t be a huge market mover. However, traders will be looking for hints about the current situation of the Federal Reserve and it’s willingness to raise rates or not in December. Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still bearish, despite the massive buying that the pair had been riding during the week. Currently, it’s expected to make a small pullback around 1.1056, where it can test the support level of 1.0992. However, EUR/USD could test the bearish trend line before to take a decisive move. In the scenario that the Fed doesn’t bring clear hints for a possible hike in December, the pair may cling up to reach the resistance level of 1.1137, which is above the 200 SMA. [IMG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11137/EURUSDH4 (32).png[/IMG] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11137 |
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GBP/USD: pound took up "let's wait and see" attitude
11/2/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes continue to consolidate in the range of 1,211-1,232. Breakout of the upper boundary of this range will create prerequisites for correction in the direction of 1,248. Alternatively, a successful test of support could cause the pound to fall towards 1,188. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_24_19.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of expanding wedge. It will be formed if quotes update the maximum at point 3. Traders should wait for the moment when wave 4-5 ends. The next correction towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels could create prerequisites for opening long positions. Recommendation: out of the market. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11138 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bears retreat, but don't give up
11/2/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, "bulls" managed to test the important resistance levels at 1,096 and 1,104. However, "bears" will continue to keep the situation under control as long as quotes remain below the 1,1255-1,131 range (78,6-88,6% Fibonacci retracement levels from the AD wave). The main strategy is to increase sales as price rises. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...8_30_50(1).png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the further dynamics in the movement of this pair will depend on the ability of buyers to test the resistance at 1.1113. There is a level of 61.8% of the last descending wave. In the vicinity of the 61.8% level, there are upper boundary of the "bearish" trading channel and target 127.2% of the "Crab" inverted pattern. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...2_08_18_43.png Recommendation: SELL 1,1115 SL 1,117 TP 1,095. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11139 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for November 2, 2016
11/2/2016 The US dollar has weakened yesterday in relation to other major currencies on the investors’ anxiety over a possible Trump victory. Recent polls showed that sharp-tongued Republican drew ahead of Hillary Clinton by 1-2 points. US economic data were mixed: construction spending was disappointing (-0.4% against the forecasted +0.5%), but ISM manufacturing and Markit PMI went ahead of expectations. The euro rose to a three-week high (1.1070). EUR/USD still continues its rally. The tension will return in markets later today as the Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting and announces its decision on the interest rate. USD/JPY slumped from yesterday’s high (105.19) to 103.75 on the US election jitters. It seems that “bullish” trend has ended; price action is deemed to a pullback as investors will be forcing money out of riskier assets (yen is a safe-haven asset). Bank of Japan left rate on hold yesterday and pushed back the time frame for hitting the inflation target. Aussie weakened as the number of building approvals fell 8.7%; it seems that constructing activity, a main trigger of the recent upward AUD/USD movement, is losing its momentum. At the present time, the pair is trading around the 0.7630 level. Yesterday Aussie almost reached its key resistance line located at 0.7700 as the RBA held its interest rate and didn’t recourse to easing. Better China data also was a boost. NZD/USD keeps growing due to the weakening of the greenback and better-than-expected labor market data released yesterday. Earlier this morning we got RBNZ inflation expectations indicator which didn’t deviate from the forecasted number. The Kiwi almost reached 0.7235 level located against 50-day MA. The undertone for GBP/USD has improved recently with Mark Carney remaining at the post of the BOE’s governor and better-than-expected/neutral economic releases coming from the UK. We continue to expect this currency pair moving sideways between 1.2080 and 1.2350 levels. Watch the construction PMI and keep in focus the FOMC’s meeting later today. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11140 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: euro may return into the Cloud
11/2/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1050, 1.1000; resistance – 1.1060, 1.1090. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1090; SL — 1.1110; TP1 — 1.1050; TP2 – 1.1000. Reason: golden cross of the rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is rising up; the prices are in positive zone, but the market is overbought. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...rusdh4(51).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11144 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/USD: on strong support
11/2/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7590, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7640. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7630; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7710; TP2 — 0.7740. 2. Sell — 0.7610; SL — 0.7630; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7510. Reason: narrow weak bullish Ichimoku Cloud; new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...dusdh4(46).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11145 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: prices are back into the Cloud
11/2/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.35, 103.00; resistance – 104.00, 104.30. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.35; SL — 103.15; TP1 — 104.00; TP2 — 104.30. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span B; new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...djpyh4(52).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11146 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Wednesday, November 2nd
11/2/2016 EUR/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11147/EURUSD(57).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 233 858 ? + 80 666 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1097; 1.1136; 1.1170; 1.1211 Closest support levels 1.1046; 1.1020; 1.0985; 1.0943 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1097, with target points at 1.1136 and 1.1170 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1046 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1020 and 1.0985 GBP/USD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11147/GBPUSD(54).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 201 ? + 612 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2276; 1.2300; 1.2320; 1.2346 Closest support levels 1.2258(40?); 1.2212; 1.2188; 1.2158 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2258, with target points at 1.2212 and 1.2188 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2276 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2300 and 1.2320 USD/JPY https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11147/USDJPY(54).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 884 ? + 1 607? Closest resistance levels 103.85; 104.05; 104.23; 104.50 Closest support levels 103.47; 103.21; 102.85; 102.43 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.85, with the target points at 104.05 and 104.23 Alternative scenario Moving below 103.47 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 103.21 and 102.85 USD/CAD https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11147/USDCAD(50).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 591 ? + 549 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3387; 1.3419; 1.3464; 1.3534 Closest support levels 1.3362; 1.3340; 1.3296; 1.3229 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3387, with the target points at 1.3419 and 1.3464 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3362 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3340 and 1.3296 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11147 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bulls broke Moving Averages
11/2/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H4.png The price is rising, but bulls faced a resistance at 1.1087, so we’ve got a local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.1103 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.1038. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a “Pennant” on the one-hour chart, which has been broken by the bullish rally. So, the price is likely going to continue rising towards the nearest resistance at 1.1103 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11148 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: flat inside "Rectangle"
11/2/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H4.png There’s a “Rectangle”, so the current consolidation is likely going to be continued in a range of this pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2089. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...016-GBP-H1.png The price is consolidating between the nearest Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2271. It’s likely that this flat is going to end soon by a possible bullish price movement. However, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish price movement in the direction of a support at 1.2226 afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11149 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Markets are kindly disposed towards Aussie, but for how long?
11/2/2016 The Aussie is trading higher against other major currencies. There are at once several contributors to the recent AUD growth. Perhaps the most significant one is tremendous commodity prices rises that delivered a boost to Australia’s terms of trade. Yesterday Reserve bank of Australia released its annual index of commodity prices. It indicated a sharp increase (by 16% in SDR terms) in the selling price of exported commodities. Over the year, coking coal prices have surged 150%, thermal coal is up 50%; iron ore edged up by 6.3%. All these commodities are the key units of Australian export. The market concerns over the RBA’s rate cut dissipated yesterday as the bank left its current policy stance unchanged. The China’s manufacturing data went ahead of expectations yesterday. The official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 for October instead of forecasted 50.4. Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, the best improvement since March 2011. The rationale for AUD appreciation in relation to USD. The US dollar after rising against G10 currencies over the past three months finally started to roll back on the market’s anxiety over a Trump victory in the US presidential election. Aussie, unlike other currencies, managed to withstand the greenback’s pressure. Trump’s victory would lead to increased uncertainty and deterioration in the market’s risk sentiment. Aussie should hold up better than other currencies given the situation in the commodity market, acceleration of China’s economic growth and favorable monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. In addition, if Trump by good/bad fortune manages to win, the Aussie may get an additional boost as the Fed could disregard the need for the rate hike in December. According to the average forecast of analysts, the currency should fell down to 0.74 by the end of this year (the forecasts compiled and estimated by Bloomberg). UniCredit and ING Groep NV are more positive in their predictions for AUD. They believe that it may rise to the 0.80 level by the end of this year. Those who are planning to trade Aussie in the longer-term should think of the possible downside in commodity prices, as they are high enough to attract additional supply to the market. The recent boom in coal prices is not expected to be sustained as the surge has been excessive, so prices should retreat from the present levels in the longer term. Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow believes that drop in commodity prices could drag Australian dollar below the 0.70 mark by the fourth quarter of 2017. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11150 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600
11/2/2016 AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600 Next sell target - 1.0470 AUD/NZD continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to impulse 3 - which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the long-term resistance level 1.0740 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from April. Having recently broken the support level 1.0600 (low of the previous impulse (i)) - AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the accelerated impulse wave (iii) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0470 (low of the previous wave (b) and the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11151 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640
11/2/2016 NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640 Next buy target - 0.9800 NZD/CAD continues to rise sharply in the minor impulse wave 3 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 0.9640 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9640 accelerated the active minor impulse 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October. NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...PM_(1_day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11152 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680
11/4/2016 GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680 Next buy target - 1.7000 GBP/CAD continues to rise – after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.6680 (former support level and the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from June). The breakout of the resistance level 1.6680 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse (5) from the middle of September. GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the accelerated minor impulse wave 3 (of the primary impulse III) toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.7000. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...(1_day)(1).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11187 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
11/4/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...411usdjpyD.png We’ve got a local bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to move on until any bullish sign arrives. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11usdjpyH4.png There’s a “High Wave” pattern at the last low, which has a confirmation. However, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have an intraday bearish correction. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, there’ll be an option to see more bullish pressure. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11176 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: local correction coming
11/4/2016 https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...411eurusdD.png The price reached the nearest resistance, so we’ve got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...11eurusdH4.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11175 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD & US NFP October: A bullish USD ahead of US elections?
11/4/2016 Today at 12:30GMT we’ll have the US Non-Farm Payrolls for October, where the market’s consensus is calling for an increase to 175,000 jobs from 156,000 registered in September. This data should provide more clues about the timing that the Fed will hike rates and chances are still higher for December’s meeting. With that being said, it will be interesting the volatility that this number should provide to a weak US Dollar, which had been posting losses in the last few days, ahead of the US presidential elections on next Tuesday. Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias that had been strengthening in the last few days, as the US dollar remains bearish. The pair is consolidating its gains above the 200 SMA and one breakout above the resistance level of 1.1115, if data comes weaker than expected, should open the doors to test the 1.1190, while a breakout below the 1.1068 support area can push lower the pair towards 1.1018. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...RUSDH4(33).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11177 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/CHF: bulls are going to attack
On the USD/CHF daily chart, the target 0.99 has been fulfilled, the "bears" were stopped by the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and intermediate target 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern. If quotes move above the convergence zone at 0,9763-0,9768, it will be a signal of the end of the CD wave followed by the downward movement of the quotes towards 0.985 and 0.989. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...4_08_19_40.png On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge increases the risk of reversal of the downward short-term trend. A break of resistance at 0.9768 followed by the exit of quotes from the "bearish" trading channel could lead to the correction. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/1...4_08_19_56.png Recommendation: BUY 0,9768 SL 0,9713 TP 0,989 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11178 |
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