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Trading plan for July 10

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NrJ4MglVk0

Market sentiment improved on Thursday, as the Greek question seems to close to an end. Greek government is on its way to find a compromise with the European creditors. China’s stock market retraced higher after days of a dramatic decline, adding to the market optimism. Demand for the US dollar remains limited after the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Commodities and risky currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have recovered some ground on Thursday amid the improved market picture.

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1050, trying to fix higher. Resistance lies at 1.1100/30. The pair could dip to 1.0910 and 1.0820 in case if the Greek optimism lowers. GBP/USD has also recovered some ground after the yesterday’s drop, but holds below 38.2% Fibonacci (1.5400). Key resistance lies at 1.5500, support – at 1.5300. Fundamentally, the market will now be waiting for the BOE minutes release on July 22.

On Friday, the market dynamics will be defined by the Asian morning. The upbeat sentiment could persist.

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USD/JPY: buy target - 122.50
10 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 122.50

USD/JPY yesterday reversed up sharply from the support zone located between the price level 120.00 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price move from last December (as you can see below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – standing well outside of the lower daily Bollinger Band – which strengthened this bullish signal.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further - in line with the strong uptrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next buy target at the resistance level 122.50.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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CHF/JPY: buy targets - 130.00 and 131.60
10 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-CHF/JPY reversed from support level 128.20
-Next buy target - 130.00 and 131.60

CHF/JPY yesterday reversed up from the support zone lying between the following support levels: the support trendline of the daily up channel from March, the lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 and the support level 128.20 (which reversed the pair multiple times in May, as you can see below).

CHF/JPY is likely to continue to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets 130.00 and 131.60 (former support level which reversed (a) wave in June).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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USD/JPY: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

USD/JPY was driven mostly by the global risk sentiment on the past week. At the beginning of the week the pair dipped to 120.50 on the wave of risk aversion, but later has recovered back above 122 yen. Next resistance is seen at 123.00 yen - this is where the trend resistance lies.

Next week the market will likely be led by the same factors - concerns about Greece and China. On Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hold its policy meeting - we expect no changes in monetary policy to be announced. However, the market could het some comments about the consequences of the Chinese events for the Japan's economy. This could cause renewed expectations for a BOJ stimulus in the coming months - bullish factor for the USD/JPY.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...PY%20Daily.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD slipped 1.0900 on the past week. However, on Thursday the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras proposed a bag of reforms to the European leaders, switching the market sentiment towards buying the European currency. As a result, at the end of the week EUR/USD recovered back above 1.1100.

European leaders will be discussing the Greek proposal over the weekend. If they find it not sufficient, on Monday euro could come under resumed bearish pressure, targeting 1.0910, 1.0820 and then lower. If a compromise is found by Monday, the pair may recover towards the 1.1400 mark. We don’t see any fundamental reasons for a move higher.

Apart from the Greek news, pay attention to the ZEW economic sentiment index on Monday. Thursday is another eventful day of the coming week: ECB meeting, Mario Draghi’s press-conference and final June CPI are on the schedule.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20Daily.png

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US Dollar: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Dollar Index slipped below 96 points on the past week. The greenback was pressured by the two major factors: risk appetite recovery and dovish Fed’s minutes released on Wednesday. What’s more, on Thursday the market has seen above-the-forecast jobless claims in the United States. Investors thought the US economy is still too weak for a rate hike in September.

Next week in the United States will be full of important economic releases. We’ll be watching the US retail sales on Monday. On Wednesday and on Thursday the Fed chief Jannet Yellen will hold its semi-annual testimony in Congress. We don’t expect any direct announcements to be made, so the US Dollar will likely stay under moderate pressure on the coming week. However, an unexpected spike in the global uncertainty (any negative developments in Greece or China) could make the US currency attractive for investments as a safe heaven.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...ex%20daily.png

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Forex trading plan for July 14

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ovx2XyqKLRE

Risk sentiment improved on Monday as there was the long-awaited agreement reached on the Greek issue. US Dollar strengthened on the news as lowered Grexit expectations support the probability of an earlier Fed’s rate hike. The current week could lift the US dollar higher – if data does not disappoint. We will be watching the June US retail sales on Tuesday – the indicator is expected to hold in the green zone.

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1000. Break below the 1.1050 support is seen as a strong selling signal. Next bearish targets – 1.0940, 1.0910 and 1.0820. Watch the ZEW economic sentiment indices on Tuesday.

GBP/USD jumped 1.5580 on the Greek optimism, but has rapidly returned to the 550day MA at 1.5510. We still see a potential for a bullish reversal. Resistance to watch lies at 1.5550. In this case, we would buy the pair targeting 1.5800. Market will be focused on the UK inflation figures on Tuesday.

AUD/USD hovers around its 6-year lows below 0.7400. We hold short targeting 0.7000 in the mid-term. Watch the NAB business confidence on Tuesday, and do not forget to monitor China’s stock indices as well.

USD/JPY extended the last week’s rally on Monday. The pair broke out of the bearish channel, overcoming the 122.80 resistance. Next bullish target is seen at 124.30.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 14

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.48, TAKE PROFIT 124.45, STOP LOSS 123.10

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7510

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2720, TAKE PROFIT 1.2957, STOP LOSS 1.2655 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 135.45, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 135.39

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0470, TAKE PROFIT 1.0574, STOP LOSS 1.0419

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6770, TAKE PROFIT 0.6590, STOP LOSS 0.6820

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5545, TAKE PROFIT 1.5330, STOP LOSS 1.5591

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1056, TAKE PROFIT 1.0916, STOP LOSS 1.1092

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7136, TAKE PROFIT 0.6945, STOP LOSS 0.7191

GBP/JPY: BUY at 190.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.53, STOP LOSS 189.65

USD/CHF: BUY lower

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 15

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C98RlwJIa4E

US Dollar has lost some ground following the weak June retail sales data release. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching US PPI and manufacturing indices. Both on Wednesday and on Thursday the Fed’s chief Yellen will deliver a semi-annual speech in Congress. The market will be closely watching her comments to get new hints on the Fed’s rate hike timing.

EUR/USD jumped to 1.1100 following the retail sales release, but the bullish impulse was short-lived. There are no releases on the EZ agenda tomorrow, but we’ll be watching the Greek headlines. Greek parliament is expected to pass the reforms project tomorrow. Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.0910 and 1.0820.

GBP/USD jumped above 1.5600on hawkish BOE comments. Meanwhile, UK inflation remains low. We’ll be watching the UK labor market figures tomorrow – there is more bullish risk for the cable. Watch the 1.5800 resistance.

AUD/USD has recovered some ground from a 6-year low, but holds below the 0.7500 resistance. Watch China’s Q2 GDP and industrial production tomorrow. Australia is scheduled to release Westpac consumer sentiment index. We target 0.7000 in the coming weeks.

USD/JPY came under slight pressure following a 3-day rally, but still remains in a bullish trend. The Bank of Japan meeting will take place tomorrow. No changes in policy are expected, but the market awaits fresh economic forecasts.

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Trading plan for July 16

Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar increased on Wednesday after the Fed's chief Janet Yellen gave out rather hawkish comments while speaking in Congress on Wednesday. What's more, strong data releases (PPI, manufacturing indices) served as a proof that the Fed has enough arguments to hike in 2015. As a result, the greenback rose to the July highs. On Thursday we'll listen to Yellen once again. You should also pay attention to the US jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index tomorrow. We remain bullish for the USD.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...2018.12.14.png

It's a good time to sell the EUR/USD pair as it is currently testing the 1.0950 support. Break lower would open the way to 1.0820 in the coming sessions. Hawkish Fed and dovish expectations for the ECB meeting on Thursday will likely increase bearish pressure for the pair tomorrow.

GBP/USD failed to overcome 1.5670 as the UK labor market data disappointed the market: jobless claims and unemployent rate both increased. Bearish risk for the pair rose after the Yellen's speech. Bearish targets lie at 1.5340 and 1.5200.

Meanwhile, bullish prospects for USD/JPY increased. Break above 124.40 is needed to resume the broad bullish trend. BOJ's economic and inflation forecast cut is a new bullish factor for the market.

We remain bearish for all the commodity block currencies. Hawkish Fed and the new wave of the China's stock selloff will likely pressure the commodity markets in the near future. Get ready to sell AUD, NZD and CAD on corrective rallies.

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Aussie updating lows
16 July 2015

by Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Yesterday, the Australian updated local lows again, decreasing to the 0.7350 mark. The main trigger for sales was the bulls' failure to get deeper into the four-hour Ichimoku cloud: a powerful resistance of the Senkou Span A line in the 0.7480 area has again thrown the AUD/USD currency pair rate into the negative zone.

In the meantime, the Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a new dead cross, and the cloud has continued expanding downwards, supporting the bearish sentiment in the market. Small consolidation at the current levels is obvious to be followed by further rate's decline.

Technical levels: support – 0.7350; resistance – 0.7400.

Trade recommendations:

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...UDUSDH4-TN.png

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USD/JPY growth stalled
16 July 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, the USD/JPY currency pair has rebounded from the four-hour Tenkan-sen line support and grown up to 123.90 during the previous day. However, these levels, in the ​​124th figure area, contain a poweful resistance that does not let the bulls futher upwards. The flow of new buyers is constrained by the market overboughtness as well.

At the same time, the Ichimoku indicator is quite positive: the cloud keeps expanding against the active golden cross.

If the bulls fail to break above 124.00 in the coming hours, the short-term bearish scenario development is quite likely, which would result in the pair's correction into the Tenkan-Kijun channel.

Technical levels: support – 123.40; resistance – 123.90.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 123.40; SL — 123.20; TP1 — 123.90; TP2 — 124.20.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sdjpyh4-TN.png

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 16

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1000, TAKE PROFIT 1.0819, STOP LOSS 1.1089

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7136, TAKE PROFIT 0.6945, STOP LOSS 0.7146

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0315, STOP LOSS 1.0470

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3955 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 190.80, TAKE PROFIT 195.26, STOP LOSS 191.43

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7510

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 123.20, TAKE PROFIT 124.74, STOP LOSS 122.86

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9485, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9399

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6650, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6729

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2888, TAKE PROFIT 1.3102, STOP LOSS 1.2815

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ _________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 17

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmGak0iR-_Y

EUR/USD trading prospects have significantly worsened on Thursday. Despite the formal improvement of the Greek issue, the market feels the Greek drama is turning into a tragedy. Greek debt keeps on growing and time to pay will eventually come. EUR/USD dipped to a new 6-week low of 1.0850 on Thursday. The ECB head Mario Draghi tried to cheer the market up, but the 1.0900 remains a hard nut to crack. Sellers stand ready to step into the market at the higher levels. We see potential for a decline to 1.0720/1.0650. Tomorrow there are no releases to watch in the euro zone, so the market will be driven by the USD trend.

As for the US Dollar, the picture has turned bullish over the past week. The Fed’s chief Janet Yellen sounds moderately dovish, while the data releases confirm economic strength. Market expectations for a September hike have increased. On Friday we’ll be watching another news block in States: June CPI, building permits and consumer sentiment index. USD Index approached the 98 point resistance. We expect it to be broken in the coming sessions.

Commodity block currencies remain pretty vulnerable. We’ll be watching USD/CAD tomorrow. The pair is now testing the 2009 highs. Canada is scheduled to releases CPI tomorrow. Bullish targets are seen at 1.3000 and 1.3060.

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US Dollar: forecast for July 20-26
17 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index rose to a 1,5-month high, approaching the 98 points resistance. The currency was pushed higher by the hawkish Fed’s governor Yellen’s comments. She has clearly confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates in the year 2015 despite the global economic concerns. These days, more than 80% of the economists, surveyed by the WSJ, expect the first rate hike to come in September.

We expect the US Dollar to resume the upside if the US data doesn’t disappoint. The next week’s economic calendar is rather light with the unemployment claims dominating the scene on Thursday. You should also watch the manufacturing PMI on June.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20index.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for July 20-26

Kira Iukhtenko

We’ve been watching the Greek drama closely for the past couple of weeks, but now it seems to be close to an end. It has become evident that no one wants Greece to exit the currency block. European ministers will continue to support the country with a third bailout program until the next crisis arises. Market focus is currently turning back to the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB. This factor will pressure the EUR/USD pair in the coming months.

EUR/USD fell by 2.5% over the past week, approaching the 7-week low. Next support lies at 1.0820. Break below would open the way for a decline to 1.0730/00 and 1.0650. Strong resistance– 1.0900/10 and 1.1050.

Euro zone’s economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Pay attention to the June PMI indices on Friday.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20Daily.png

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 20

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1000, TAKE PROFIT 1.0785, STOP LOSS 1.1041

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.25

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7447 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0315, STOP LOSS 1.0470

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

Trade ideas:

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9557, TAKE PROFIT 0.9743, STOP LOSS 0.9470

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2888, TAKE PROFIT 1.3102, STOP LOSS 1.2815

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6620, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6695

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ______________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 21


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3IZdfbGvo8

EUR/USD paused in the 1.0818 area (May low) as Greece made debt repayments to the ECB and the IMF. Support is in the 1.0750/10 region ahead of 1.0660. Resistance is at 1.0915 and 1.0965. With empty economic calendars in the US and the euro area traders await more comments and news on Greek bailout.

GBP/USD slid to the 55-day MA in the 1.5540 zone after last week it met resistance in the 1.5675 area. The next important event for the British currency is the publication of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes will give us more insight into the BoE’s mindset after Governor Carney’s hawkish comments last week. If other members of British central bank don’t share Carney’s optimism, pound will decline. If not, sterling will fight dollar’s strength. Ahead of the release we expect more sideways trading. Support for cable is at 1.5500 and 1.5450, while resistance lies at 1.5675 and 1.5700.

More hawkish comments from the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen and relief in Greece made USD/JPY continue its V-shaped recovery and rise above 124.00. Resistance is at 124.50 and 125.00. Support is at 123.70, 123.30 and 122.90. There won’t be any important releases either in the US or in Japan on Tuesday, so watch the risk sentiment and the development of the Greek story.

AUD/USD dipped to 0.7327. Aussie was affected by the sharp decline in gold price. Gold fell by $50 on Monday as the stop orders were hit in the situation of low liquidity. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its July policy meeting on Tuesday. Watch this publication for hints whether the RBA will move from the position of more easing to the more neutral view. Technically, after AUD/USD made a break to the downside this month, it remains under negative pressure. Resistance at 0.7500/0.7586 will limit the pair on the upside. Sell on the recovery.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 21

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1000, TAKE PROFIT 1.0742, STOP LOSS 1.0965

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.89

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5625, TAKE PROFIT 1.5815, STOP LOSS 1.5535

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9610, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9555

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7447

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0315, STOP LOSS 1.0470

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 193.75, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 192.65

Trade ideas:

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2888, TAKE PROFIT 1.3102, STOP LOSS 1.2815

EUR/JPY: SELL at 135.20, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 135.60

EUR/GBP: SELL higher

NZD/USD: SELL higher

__________________________________________________ ________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 22

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4EV_2atfEY

Economic calendar on Tuesday was rather light, while the global sentiment improved due to a decline in Greek voes and China headlines. Shanghai Composite added 0.6% today. As a result, we’ve seen recovery in all classes of the risky assets.

US Dollar index declined from the yesterday’s peak of 98.30. Watch the existing home sales data and crude oil inventories tomorrow. We expect the greenback to resume the bullish move in the coming sessions.

EUR/USD has recovered from a 3-month low of 1.0808 towards 1.0890, but we see this move as a corrective one. We stay bearish below 1.1000 and recommend selling euro at the current levels.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5500. On Wednesday, we’ll watch the Bank of England meeting minutes closely. On Thursday, the retail sales figures will be in focus. Resistance lies at 1.5670, while a break below 1.5500 could open the way to 1.5200.

USD/JPY is hanging at the June highs of 124.50. The US dollar lacked a bullish impulse today, but we believe the market could break higher in the coming sessions. Major support lies at 122.00.

AUD/USD has also recovered some ground despite the dovish RBA comments. NZD/USD rose above 0.6600. Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its monetary decision on Thursday – a rate cut is very likely. This could hit all the commodity block currencies.

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Forex trading plan for July 22 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Bank of Japan: no easing is needed
22 July 2015

US dollar is steady on Wednesday after it declined on Tuesday.

EUR/USD rose to resistance in the 1.0965 area. The euro gained as the bad mood caused by the Greek situation gradually dissolves.

USD/JPY slid to 123.55. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that he expected inflation to meet the central bank’s 2% target and dismissed the idea of more quantitative easing.

Gold price stabilized above $1090 supporting commodity currencies like Australian and New Zealand’s dollars. AUD/USD recovered to 0.7430 after a dip to 0.7370. Australia’s inflation figures released today allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue cutting interest rates if needed. At the same time, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that too much easing could lead to longer-term dangers through risk-taking and excessive borrowing.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 22

Open positions:*

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9610, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9555

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7420, TAKE PROFIT 0.7599, STOP LOSS 0.7355

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 192.35, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 191.68

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: SELL at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 122.92, STOP LOSS 124.55

EUR/JPY: SELL at 135.89, TAKE PROFIT 134.33, STOP LOSS 136.45

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0445, TAKE PROFIT 1.0574, STOP LOSS 1.0395

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ___________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Goldman Sachs: gold prices will fall below $1000
22 July 2015

According to Goldman Sachs' head of commodity research Jeffrey Currie, gold price will likely fall below $1000 for the first time since 2009. "With the more positive outlook on the dollar, and with debasement risk starting to fade, the demand to use gold as a diversifying asset against the U.S. dollar becomes less and less important", Currie believes.

The yellow metall and the other commodity assets entered a structural bearish trend, analyst forecasts. He recommends going short in a long-term prospect.

Gold hit a new 5-year low of $1090 on Wednesday. Fed's rate hike expectations and China's slowdown are the key bearish factors.

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Forex trading plan for July 23


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wtpj4LhghsM

US dollar has given up some of its gains versus other currencies. The decline in American currency was provoked mainly by the profit taking. Still, the expectations of higher Federal Reserve’s interest rates are still in place as traders await the FOMC meeting due next week. Finally, there will be some figures out the US on Thursday – the unemployment claims figures at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD breached down its hourly consolidation range and slid to 1.0900 and lower. Buyers may come up in the 1.0888/1.0875 zone. Return above 1.0925 will make the bulls more active. Resistance is at 1.0965, 1.1000 (100-day MA, bottom of daily Ichimoku) and 1.1050. On Wednesday Greek parliament is set to vote on reforms required by the creditors. The bills is expected to pass, but may lead to further political tensions in Greece. On Thursday Bundesbank President will speak at 14:15 GMT.

GBP/USD rose to just below 1.5650. The Bank of England’s July meeting minutes showed that all members of the central bank votes to keep monetary policy unchanged, demonstrating though that the debate on the interest rate hike had intensified. All in all, the minutes were more hawkish than expected. Cable still faces resistance around last week’s highs at 1.5675 ahead of the psychological level of 1.5700. Support is at 1.5560, 1.5500 and 1.5450. Britain will release retail sales at 08:30 GMT (forecast is positive).

USD/JPY dipped to 123.55 before recovering to levels just below 124.00. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda has talked down the possibility of additional monetary easing. However, Japanese government has revised down its inflation forecast, so the markets will remain sure that the nation’s central bank will at least stick to its loose monetary policy for a long time.

AUD/USD failed to stay above 0.7400. Inflation figures released today didn’t rule out further interest rate cuts by the Reserve bank of Australia. However, the RBA’s Governor Stevens said that the regulator is ready to use such option, but underlined that such step will be connected with high risks.

NZD/USD is declining ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision at 21:00 GMT on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25-50 bps. Resistance is at 1.6650 and 1.6770. On the downside support is at 0.6500. AUD/NZD may rise towards 1.1300.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 23

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 122.92, STOP LOSS 124.55

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9610, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9555

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7420, TAKE PROFIT 0.7599, STOP LOSS 0.7355

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 192.35, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 191.68

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5575, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5523

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2991, TAKE PROFIT 1.3166, STOP LOSS 1.2905

EUR/JPY: SELL at 136.20, TAKE PROFIT 134.33, STOP LOSS 136.45

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0455, TAKE PROFIT 1.0574, STOP LOSS 1.0395

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 24

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2CBkkfWY3E

Demand for the US dollar recovered on Thursday after the unexpectedly strong labor market figures. Jobless claims dipped to a 42-year low of 255K, increasing expectations of a Fed'a rate hike in September. However, the market sentiment still remains cautious as US corporate earnings were quite disappointing this week. On Friday we'll be watching the US PMI and new home sales.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1020 after the Greek parliament approved the second reform package. However, we review the EUR/USD recovery as corrective and recommend selling euro on rallies. The 1.0820 support could be broken in the coming sessions. In euro zone we'll also be watching a bag of PMI releases.

GBP/USD has once again retraced from the 1.5670 resistance on weak UK retail sales. There is a high bearish potential for the pair in the coming days if the US data doesn't disappoint. Next support lies at 1.5450.

Commodity currencies were quite contoversial today. NZD pushed higher on a lower-than-expected RBNZ rate cut, while CAD strengthened on strong retail sales in Canada. meanwhile, Aussie was trading in a red zone. We see the current rebound in commodity block currencies as a corrective one and recommend selling all of them on rallies. Watch the China's manufacturing PMI on Friday - this is another risk factor for the market.

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AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7200
24 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/USD reached sell target 0.7450
-Next sell target - 0.7200

AUD/USD continues to decline after the pair earlier broke through the support level 0.7450, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The pair earlier reversed up to test the former support level 0.7450 (acting as resistance now after it was broken) – from where the price reversed down sharply with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing, as you can see below.

AUD/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1400
24 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.1400

GBP/AUD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 2.1000 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the aforementioned price level 2.1000 (acting as support now after it was broken), the upper channel line of the wide up channel from 2014 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier upward impulse from the end of wave (ii).

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further inside the active impulse wave (iii) toward the next buy target at 2.1400.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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US Dollar: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar attempted to overcome the 98 resistance, but was dragged lower by the mixed corporate earnings. US exporters suffered from the expensive currency and weak demand from overseas. However, on Thursday the market was cheered up by the jobless claims – the indicator unexpectedly fell to a 40-year low, confirming the economic recovery.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20chart.png

On the new week, we’ll focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. No rate hike is expected, but the market will be tracking the monetary policy statement’s tone. Futures market is currently pricing in a 19% chance of a hike in September and a 56% chance of a hike in December. Any hawkish hints will push the currency to the upside.

Thursday will become another important day for the greenback – Q2 GDP is on the schedule. According to the official forecast, the US economy rose by 2.5% q/q from April to June, while analysts at Barclays forecast a more than 3% growth. This is going to be a huge progress after a 0.2% dip in Q1.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana.../USD%20gdp.png


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GBP/USD: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2
24 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDaK4tIhtUI

The unofficial race between the Fed and the BOE to become the first bank who will hike rates has resumed. Hawkish Monetary policy committee minutes released last week strengthened the market expectations for a UK rate hike in November 2015. British economists switched their focus to the risk of an inflation rally. However, for now the UK CPI stays at 0%, creating some skeptics on the market.

This week traders were also disappointed by the downbeat retail sales. The indicator fell by 0.2%, confirming the slowdown in economic activity. On the new week the economic calendar is rather light with the UK GDP in focus on Tuesday. Economic growth is expected to have accelerated from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.7% in Q2.

GBP/USD will be driven by the news from the States and UK. For now, the pair stays in a medium-term bullish channel. Break below the major support of 1.5400 could confirm the bearish dominance. Resistance is seen at 1.5670.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...BP%20chart.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

By Elizaveta Belugina

Will Greece continue affecting EUR/USD or is the market already done with this topic?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGDZTRIdbD8

In the past week Greek parliament has approved the second reform package demanded by the creditors in return for financial aid. This second set of measures was less austere than the previous one, so it was passed more easily. Next week the Greeks will be safe from tough decisions as further controversial discussions will take place only in August.

The market’s focus in the coming days will switch to the United States where the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. There will be some rather important releases in the euro area like German Ifo business climate on Monday and the region’s inflation figures on Friday. However, these publications won’t have much of an influence on the current setup: the Fed is clearly moving closer to policy tightening, while the European Central Bank will continue quantitative easing (QE). In addition, investors will be aware of more uncertainty which will emerge from Greece next month: the negotiations on Greek debt relief won’t be easy, and political tensions in the nation itself will intensify.

Forecast: As a result, traders have little reason to buy the single currency. EUR/USD ran into resistance of the daily Ichimoku Cloud’s bottom and 100-day MA in the 1.10 area and will likely slide to 1.08 or even 1.07. Next resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1125 and 1.1215.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana.../23/EURUSD.png

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USD/JPY: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY got stuck between 124.50 and 123.50. What will its next move be like?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxO01qEgJnw

The advance of the US dollar has stalled in the past week as traders took profit on their bullish positions. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda talked down the possibility of further monetary stimulus in Japan. In addition, volatility at gold market and weaker-than-expected data from China contributed to demand for the yen as a safe haven, though some progress reached in Greece brought some relief.

Next week Japan will release retail sales data on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday. As the recent economic readings from Japan have been mediocre, it looks like the nation will have at least to keep its current extremely loose monetary policy, if not add additional stimulus. This won’t let the yen strengthen much. Moreover, USD/JPY will be driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s monetary announcement on Wednesday and American GDP release on Thursday.

Forecast: As American yields will likely rise ahead and after these releases, the best strategy is to buy USD/JPY on the dips. Furthersupportisat 122.85/50 and 121.50. Note, however, that resistance at 125.00 will be a big obstacle for the bulls: only very hawkish Fed’s statement or extraordinary high US economic growth could push the pair above this level. Also keep in mind that the negotiations on Trans-Pacific Partnership will be at decisive stage on July 28-31 and too high dollar exchange rate will be very unwelcome for a success of these talks.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana.../23/USDJPY.png

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USD/JPY: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
27 July 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 2bln), 1.0850 (1bln), 1.0900 (1.2bln), 1.1000 (1.3bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5750 (GBP 240m);

USD/JPY: 122.50 (USD 550m), 124.00 (320m), 125.00 (300m);

USD/CAD: 1.3100 (USD 250m), 1.3200 (450m);

NZD/USD: 0.6660 (NZD 270m).

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Danske Bank: trade signals for July 27

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 122.92, STOP LOSS 124.55

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5510, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5450

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2991, TAKE PROFIT 1.3166, STOP LOSS 1.2905

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.4220

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6675, TAKE PROFIT 0.6459, STOP LOSS 0.6665

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0530, TAKE PROFIT 1.0675, STOP LOSS 1.0499

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7329, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7382

GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY SELL

__________________________________________________ ______________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for July 28

By Elizavbeth Belugina

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-6ZpGTW6AI

Monday wasn’t a very successful day for the US dollar. Although durable goods orders for June came out better than expected (but figures for the previous months were revised to the downside), the greenback stayed at lows. Traders await other key events of the week: the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and US GDP release on Thursday. Watch CB consumer confidence in America due at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1113. German Ifo Business Climate came out better than expected. The pair has reached 200-period MA at H4 and almost reached 55-day MA. There’s a short-term corrective uptrend: the overall decline will resume once it’s breached to the downside. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0985. Resistance is at 1.1125 and 1.1200/15.

GBP/USD found support in the 1.5465/1.5500 area. UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP figures at 08:30 GMT. According to the forecasts, British economy growth has accelerated from 0.4% to 0.7%. Still, there are several resistance levels ahead, with the most important one at 1.5515/25 area (resistance line from June highs). This one will be hard to break ahead of the Fed and the US GDP. Further support is at 1.5410/00.

USD/JPY is quickly slipping down as demand for the yen as a safe haven went up due to another crash of Chinese stocks. Support is at 122.90, 112.50 and 122.00. The pair may slide towards 122.00 on the negative risk sentiment, but data from the US later this week should offer an opportunity to but it on the dips. Resistance is at 123.70 and 123.90/124.00.

AUD/USD remains near Friday lows. Resistance is at 0.7370 and 0.7400 (psychological level). Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7200. Aussie’s stabilization will be short-lived as the currency lacks bullish drivers in the risk-off environment.

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GOLD: weekly wave analysis
28 July 2015

Daily. Gold continues developing within the sloping triangle within which we are seeing formation of the final part of the wave [D]. When this wave is complete, the market will start new upward correction [E]. Let’s analyze the chart in greater detail.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...le/xauusd1.PNG

H4. When the wave was over [iii], the market started developing a small correction [iv]. The price will spend in this wave the whole day and probably some of the next days as the fourth wave may take form of a prolonged flat. When this wave is complete, we'll see the final decline within the downward impulse [v]. The approximate trajectory of the upcoming move is shown at the chart.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...le/xauusd2.PNG

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USD/JPY is being corrected in the cloud
28 July 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Bulls could not keep the exchange rate of the currency pair USD/JPY in the positive area. Negative attitudes appeared at the end of last week: the breakdown of the support of Ichimoku cloud top, followed by the strengthening of the dead cross only intensified the bearish pressure on the pair. This thing led to a sharp drop of prices on Monday to support of 123.00.

Today, there is an intensification of buyers on the market, but so far it seems only a short-term correction after yesterday's fall. Indeed, Tenkan and Kijun lines are in no hurry to cancel the effect of the dead cross. Therefore, after testing their resistance around 123.50/60, the market may continue to decrease in the short-term and go down to the area of ​​122.40. If a breakdown occurs the resistance, we will expect a quick resumption of the primary uptrend.

Technical levels: Support - 123.00, 122.40; Resistance - 123.50.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell - 123.50; SL - 123.70; TP1 - 123.00; TP2 - 122.40.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sdjpyh4-TN.png

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Forex trading plan for July 29

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar recovered on Wednesday, but didn’t fix above the mid-body of the previous bearish candle. CB сonsumer confidence came significantly below expectations (90.9 vs. 100.1). The FOMC meeting will definitely be the highlight of Wednesday. The selloff at Chinese stock market has increased uncertainty about the Fed’s position plus traders aren’t very encouraged by the recent US economic data, so they were closing bullish USD positions. Still, taking into account the recent comments of the FOMC members, the possibility of a more hawkish tone of the US remains on the table. We’ll likely see American currency consolidate ahead of the Fed’s announcement as many will stay out of the market. Also watch stocks and the market’s risk sentiment as they will have a direct impact on the currency market.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...uly/28/DXY.png

EUR/USD has breached the short-term downtrend and keeps trading above 1.10. The reason of the euro’s relative strength is that it is G10 currency with low yield, something that investors choose to escape from risks. Greece started technical talks with its creditors about the third bailout program. GfK German Consumer Climate is due at 06:00 GMT. Support is at 1.1000, 1.0985 and 1.0935. Resistance at 1.1125 still guards the way to 1.1200/15. The pair may stay in the 1.10/1.11 range ahead of the Fed’s meeting.

GBP/USD rose to $1.5618. British GDP growth accelerated in line with expectations, to 0.7% in Q2. The pound has approached a bunch of resistance levels (1.5640 – 1.5670 – 1.5700), which will be hard to break: these levels have been capping the cable the whole July. Support is at 1.5560, 1.5460 ahead of 1.5400.

USD/JPY was supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud, the top of which is located in the 123.00 area. Still, the pair has to rise above 123.90/124.00 to retest 125.00. Support is at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7326 as the situation at Chinese stock market has a bit improved. However, Aussie remains vulnerable to the downside. Resistance remains at 0.7370 and 0.7400. Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7200.

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USD/JPY: buy targets - 124.30 and 125.50
29 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets - 124.30 and 125.50

USD/JPY continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 123.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp (a)-wave from the start of July (which broke the previous daily down channel from June). The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line (highlighted below).

USD/JPY is expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at 124.30 (top of wave (a)) and 125.50 (this level reversed previous impulse 1).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0800
29 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD falls inside (c)-wave
-Next sell target - 1.0800

AUD/NZD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction B from the start of this month. This (c)-wave started earlier- when the pair failed to break above the strong resistance level 1.1400. The price then broke through the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of March and the support level 1.1000 (which stopped earlier (a)-wave)).

With the clear bearish divergence visible on the daily RSI indicator - AUD/NZD can be expected to fall further in the active (c)-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0800.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0800 - Forex Analytics