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AUD/CAD: sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450
13 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9600
-Next sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450

AUD/CAD continues to decline after recently breaking through the support level 0.9600, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.9750 and 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from January.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January) toward the next sell targets 0.9500 and 0.9450.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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USD: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week US dollar showed moderate gains versus other major currencies.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%80%D0%B0.png

On the one hand, the market sees higher and higher possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September. Solid retail sales data also supported the case for an early rate hike.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...il%20sales.png

On the other hand, traders are still far from sure of such outcome. According to the latest Reuters polls of the leading economists, the odds of September rate hike rose to 60%. Although this is much more than we have seen before, uncertainty remains. In addition, the greenback has already strengthened much and many large players take profit on their bullish USD positions on good data releases. China’s yuan devaluation also limited strength of American currency: after initially higher demand for USD, traders feared that this would prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy, as American central bank would not want to lose the currency war and let the greenback strengthen much more.

The next week will be full of important economic releases and events. Pay attention to inflation figures on Wednesday – low inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates. In addition, the Fed’s July meeting minutes will see light. The market will be looking at the division of opinions within the regulator and information on how the policymakers estimate the external risks to American economy. San Francisco Fed President Williams will speak on Thursday: he is one of the FOMC members leaning to a rate hike in September. Also on Thursday is the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium. This is an annual event, attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from all over the world and hosted by the Federal Reserve. We can expect plenty of important comments on economic and monetary policy not only by the Fed, but also by other central banks. Global trends such as decline in commodity prices will also be discussed.

Traders will surely follow all these developments with great attention. For us to see confident growth in USD we need good American statistics accompanied by the hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve. And even this may be not enough: at the point when the market already has significant long USD positions, new bullish impulse should come from other nations and other central banks to provide monetary stimulus to their economies. Where the market will see that or at least the possibility of that, USD will gain. In this sense, commodity currencies should be the weakest versus the greenback.

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EUR/USD: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

Although the quantitative easing (QE) conducted by the European Central Bank since March brings positive results, the euro area’s economic recovery remains uneven. The region’s economic leader, Germany, posted 0.4% economic increase – a bit lower reading than expected. The outsider Greek economy unexpectedly jumped by 0.8% in April-June, but in France economic growth turned out to be zero. GDP of the whole currency union rose by 0.3% in Q2 (forecast: +0.4%). The ECB meeting minutes showed that the regulator aims to continue quantitative easing as planned.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...area%20GDP.png

Next week we will get economic updates about the euro zone’s trade balance, currency account and, most importantly, about the region’s manufacturing and services sector activity in August.

In addition, we follow the developments in Greece. On Friday the nation’s parliament has approved the bailout package. The issue will be discussed within the Eurogroup and, if approved, German parliament will have to ratify it at the beginning of the next week. Although Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has once again managed to make the parliament follow his lead, he won because of the opposition, while many of his own party members abstained from the vote. So, unless these rebellious Syriza members change their position, Greece will likely has to conduct snap elections. In addition, there is still an unresolved question about the International Monetary Fund’s participation in the deal: the IMF wants Germany to grant Greece major debt relief, but Berlin is against such a step.

Let me remind you that the nation has to repay about 3.2 billion euro to the ECB by August 20. Greece has a time limit to get money. As a result, volatility will pick up next week. Still, the market seems quite sure that Greece is out of default danger for now: if not the bailout, Greece will get another bridge loan to cover its short-term needs.

The single currency was rather resilient versus the US dollar in the past week. EUR/USD fixed above 1.1100. Support is at 1.1040, 1.0950 and 1.0890. Resistance is at 1.1215, 1.1278 and 1.1365. The bulls have to overcome the obstacle at 1.1280 to get a chance to rise to 1.15 and higher.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...URUSDDaily.png

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USD/JPY: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

Japan will release GDP figures early on Monday. According to the expectations, the nation’s economy contracted by almost 2% in Q2. In addition, don’t miss Japanese trade balance data on Wednesday: this release will show how the nation’s economy is doing in Q3. It looks like the exports growth has significantly slowed in July – a bad sign for Japan which creates the risk of a second quarter of contraction in a row.

As China is Japan’s major trading partner, yuan’s devaluation will affect Japan and its trade balance provoking further stress for Japan’s economy. On Thursday there will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting and press conference. The central bank has not made any new steps since it last expanded massive asset purchases in October 2014. According to the recent comments of the regulator, the central bank thinks that this is enough to reach 2% inflation target. However, traders will still expect more from the central bank if economic data continue deteriorating.

USD/JPY once again was not able to show sustainable growth above 125.00. Further resistance is at 125.30 and 125.85 ahead of 126.00. Support is at 123.85, 123.00 and 122.60. We still think that the pair is not ready for a big break to the upside unless of a dovish surprise from the Bank of Japan.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SDJPYDaily.png

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AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. Bearish impulse A seems to be complete. The initial phase of the bullish correction B is on the way.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/audusd1.PNG

H4. On the new week we're going to rally in a wave [y]. We recommend you staying out of the market these days as the market is forming very complicated wave constructions.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0%B8%D1%8F.png

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USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The price is moving up in a long-term bullish trend. Final bullish wave (V) is now being built.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/usdjpy1.PNG

H4. Final part of the wave V takes a form of diagonal triangle. We expect the price to rally in a bullish zigzag (5).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/usdjpy2.PNG

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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The market is now trading in a complex corrective wave [B]. Last week it became clear that it's not finished. The decline will begin only after the end of the final corrective wave (z).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/gbpusd1.PNG

H4. Wave (Z) is a double tripple. On the new week the price will grow in a bullish zigzag Y of (Z). The decline will begin soon after.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/gbpusd2.PNG

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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The market keeps on moving in a long-term corrective wave (4). We're now in the final bullish part of this wave.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/eurusd1.PNG

H4. New bullish wave Y is as complicated as the previous waves. This week we expect the price to move up in a rising zigzag (y).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...st/eurusd2.PNG

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Danske Bank: trade signals for August 17


Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5565, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5498

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Norkina : Australian drops in early trading
18 August 2015-

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

Trading currency pair AUD / USD this morning began with a decline in prices. Bears stepped up the pressure after the bulls failed to overcome the resistance just below the 74th figure. Market gradually decreases along the top of a four-hour Ichimoku cloud to 0.7340 , where it is provided support by the Kijun-sen line.

Let’s note, however, that the situation on the market remains positive. Golden Cross and the growing cloud of Ichimoku may attract the interest of long-term players. Also, let us not exclude the possibility of testing the upper boundary of the cloud support in the area of ​​0.7330.

-Technical levels: support - 0.7330 ; Resistance - 0.7380 , 0.7400 , 0.7415 , 0.7440.
-Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 0.7330; SL - 0.7310; TP1 - 0.7380; TP2 - 0.7400.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...UDUSDH4-TN.png

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Norkina : Dollar cannot find its strength
18 August 2015

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

The US dollar is not able to recover strength against the yen after Friday's rebound from the 124.50 resistance. The course of the currency pair USD / JPY remains inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, under the resistance line Tenkan-sen on the four-hour timeframe.

Perhaps, the resumption of offensive bulls is prevented by local overboughtness of the pair, which is confirmed by the Chinkou line. However, in both the short and long term, perspectives, the market situation is owned by the bulls. Indeed, the golden cross and bullish cloud may increase positive sentiment, which will subsequently lead to the breakthrough 124.50.

Technical levels: Support - 124.00 ; Resistance - 124.50.

Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 124.30; SL - 124.10; TP1 - 125.60; TP2 - 126.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sdjpyh4-TN.png

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Danske Bank: trade signals for August 18

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6600, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6655

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for August 19

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_vXmo6k_t8

Wednesday is going to be an important day for the US dollar. We will be watching the inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The US currency could get fundamental support from the Chinese economic developments and the commodity rout extension.

GBP/USD has finally tested the levels above 1.5700 after the upbeat UK inflation releases. CPI added 0.1%, while the core CPI surged to 1.2% (5-months high). Price growth raised hopes for the BOE rate hike in the near future. Fix above 1.5700 would open the way to our next target of 1.5790.

There are no important releases to watch in the euro area until Friday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1050 support as we write (100-day MA). Fix below would trigger a move to 1.0820. Fed’s expectations will play the biggest part in the coming days.

RBA meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed the central bank is satisfied with the AUD depreciation. We see space for more downside in the coming sessions. China’s risks will influence the Aussie, so the pair AUD/USD targets 0.7315.

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MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
19 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 611m), 1.1040 (346m), 1.1100 (271m), 1.1150 (154m)

GBP/USD: 1.5700 (GBP 135m)

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 528m), 124.50 (385m), 125.00 (334m), 126.00 (727m)

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 480m)

USD/CAD: 1.3050 (USD 398m), 1.3100 (133m), 1.3150 (200m), 1.3185 (191m)

AUD/USD: 0.7295 (AUD 249m), 0.7360 (163m)

EUR/JPY: 136.75 (EUR 247m), 137.00 (153m), 137.50 (200m)

EUR/GBP: 0.6900 (EUR 1.2bln), 0.6975/80 (200m)

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Euro trading inside cloud
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD made its way into the four-hour cloud area yesterday, after the bulls failed to break through the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines resistance. The support formed by the cloud's lower border around 1.1010 was tested yesterday as well. So far, the level is retained by the bulls, however, the short-term trend is determined by the dead cross. Let us also note that at the current levels, the buyers' progress will be hindered by both the cloud's upper border and Tenkan-sen, in the ​​1.1070 area. And the 11th figure contains the Kijun-sen resistance. The bulls might attempt to move into the positive area today, but further trading is obvious to continue within the cloud.

Technical levels: support – 1.1000; resistance – 1.1070, 1.1100.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...urusdh4-TN.png

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Pound attempting to grow
19 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The GBP/USD currency pair found support at 1.5560 yesterday. It is here that a powerful level has been formed by the Ichimoku cloud upper border on the four-hour timeframe. Supported by the positive cloud, the bulls took it as a signal for purchases, making the pair finally break through the notorious 1.5650 resistance. The daily high was set at 1.5716 but then the market returned to the 1.5650 mark to test the Kijun-sen line support.

Obviously, the bullish sentiment might increase in the near future. The goal for purchases may be the 1.5780/90 mark.

Technical levels: support – 1.5650; resistance – 1.5730, 1.5780.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5670; SL — 1.5650; TP1 — 1.5730; TP2 — 1.5780.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...bpusdh4-TN.png

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Forex trading plan for August 20

US CPI data came in at 0.1% for headline and core, below the 0.2% estimates, but real average earnings rose from 1.8% to 2.2% helping US dollar recover after the initial sip. Traders are also positioning for the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday – the market is probably pricing in a more hawkish statement. Traders will be looking for the indication of how many central bank members lean towards September rate hike. Comments about the labor market and inflation will be also important. On Thursday there will be another bunch of American economic statistics: unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT and existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (positive forecast) at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD continued its way below the 100-day MA at 1.1048. The German Bundestag has voted in favor of the third bailout for Greece. Greece is scheduled to repay 3.5 billion euro to the European Central Bank (ECB). Support is at 1.1015/1.1000 and 1.0950. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1090/1.1100 and 1.1130. The pair has topped last week, but the euro still has underlying strength, so the bearish bias may soften.

GBP/USD jumped on Tuesday, but failed to close above 1.5700 mark. Only a close above this point will bring the pair to 1.5785/1.5815. UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5590 (55-day MA).

USD/JPY made a spike down towards 124.00, but then recovered to 124.40. Resistance is at 124.50 (50% of the decline after Chinese yuan devaluation) and then at 124.70 and 124.90/125.00. The instability in China supports demand for the yen as a safe haven and limits the pair’s advance. The Bank of Japan meeting will take place on Thursday. In its recent comments, the regulator hinted that it was no planning to increase monetary stimulus as the yen has already weakened much. If the Bank of Japan sticks to this position, the advance of USD/JPY will remain limited. Long USD positions here seem risky.

AUD/USD is getting ready for a break of either 0.7315 or 0.7375. Support will likely come under pressure.

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Aussie held above cloud
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair has been trying desperately to consolidate above the four-hour Ichimoku cloud in the recent days. The main support was at the 0.7320 level, which the bulls had been firmly holding since Tuesday.

Given the generally positive Ichimoku indicator, a break trhough the Tenkan and Kijun lines resistance in the 0.7360 area might inspire buyers that would choose the short-term level of 0.7450 as their goal. However, currently the Tenkan and Kijun lines are quite firmly keeping the dead cross relevant. Therefore, purchases will be possible only after the prices fix above the Kijun line.

Technical levels: support – 0.7330/40 resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7415, 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7350; SL — 0.7330; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7440.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...UDUSDH4-TN.png

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Dollar weakened against Yen
20 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair rate plummeted into the negative area yesterday after all, below the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The bulls were trying desperately to keep the prices in the ​​cloud area, taking advantage of the lower border support around ​​124.10, but the bears turned out stronger. As a result, the pair has updated the three-week lows, having gone down to the 123.67 mark.

The bearish sentiment is obvious to prevail in the market in the near future since the Ichimoku cloud has changed for the negative and the Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross. The Senkou Span B line retest migth make new sales possible.

Technical levels: support – 123.50; resistance – 124.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 124.00; SL — 124.20; TP1 — 123.50; TP2 — 123.10.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sdjpyh4-TN.png

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GBP/USD: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

Improved UK inflation data and a declining dollar supported the British pound over the past week. GBP/USD reached 1.5-month highs above 1.5700 (prior strong resistance). The market is now forming a long-legged candle on the weekly chart (bullish signal). It is important for us whether the pound will be able to fix above 1.5730 (trend line on the chart). Next bullish targets could be seen at 1.5800/10 and 1.5870 (50% Fibonacci from the 2014-2015 decline) in this case.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sd%20daily.png

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

British government is gradually preparing for a rate hike, pushing the exchange rate higher. However, you should keep in mind that increased risk aversion and weak US figures could force the Fed to delay the first rate hike. Bank of England will likely follow its US counterpart, switching the hike expectations back into 2016. That’s why we don’t expect the bulls to stay in the sterling for too long.

Next week we'll be watching UK Q2 GDP (second estimate) and the news from the United States.

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USD/JPY: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY slid below 123.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven, because worse-than-expected economic figures from China and other events kept investors’ risk sentiment getting worse and worse.

The case for further easing by the Bank of Japan is building. Japanese economy contracted in Q2. GDP fell by an annualized 1.6%. Japan’s export growth slowed in July, while private sector demand is low.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...c%20growth.png

On Friday, Japan will release inflation and retail sales figures. According to the Reuters poll, core consumer prices in Japan have slipped in July, the first fall in more than 2 years. Other data may to provide some positive news: according to the forecasts, household spending probably rose in July as hot weather spurred sales of summer clothing and air conditioners. Retail sales are expected to show a 1.1% gain in July on-year, up for the four straight month, though the pace of growth has moderated in the past few months.

There are some expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary stimulus in October. These expectations will provide some support for the pair. However, the central bank is very unlikely to make any new steps before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17.

All in all, we expect USD/JPY to remain under pressure. Next support is in the 122.30/00 psychological area and at 121.50 (2015 uptrend line). On the upside resistance is at 123.60 and 124.50.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...JPYDaily_1.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for August 24-30
21 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week was eventful for the euro area and especially for Greece. International creditors agreed to provide the nation with 86-billion euro bailout. Greece will be getting the money within the next 3 years. In return, Greek authorities will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Greece got the first 26-billion tranche on Thursday: 10 billion will be used to recapitalize the banks, while about 3 billion were repaid to the ECB.

In the near term, we will see plenty of political news from Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigned because of a rebellion in his leftist Syriza party. Tsipras now aims to take part in the snap parliamentary elections reported on September 20 in order to strengthen his hold on power. For now, the market views the resignation of Tsipras as positive for the euro believing that it could facilitate the negotiations with the European authorities. For now, under the Greek constitution, the three largest parties will try to form a temporary government – this process may be rather difficult.

EUR/USD jumped towards 1.1300 as the less hawkish Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The single currency is used as a refuge as capital is flying from emerging markets. Safe haven demand will keep the euro supported until there are better economic data coming from the US and China. As a result, we recommend being very cautious with short positions next week. Buying on the dips will be better as a short-term strategy.

Next week there will not be many important economic releases in the euro area, except German Ifo business climate on Tuesday. In addition, pay attention to the meeting of the global monetary authorities in Jackson Hole.

Resistance is at 1.1340 (200-day MA), 1.1380 and 1.1430/67. Support is located at 1.1215, 1.1130/00, 1.1075 and 1.1015.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...USDDaily_1.png

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US dollar: forecast for August 24 - 30
21 August 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar index reached its lowest level since June 30 by the end of the week (95.40). Increased global uncertainty lowers expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the September 17 meeting. Dovish Fed’s policy minutes and lower inflation data became another argument against a premature hike. Futures market is currently pricing in only 24% chance for a Fed’s hike in September.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20Index.png

Chart. USD Index Weekly

We believe the US currency has some room for a corrective decline, but the buyers are expected to return into the market ahead of the September 4 NFP. It will finally become clear that there is nothing more stable than the US economy these days.

US are scheduled to release a bag of important figures on the new week. Pay special attention to the Q2 GDP second estimate. There is a chance for the figure to be revised higher from the preliminary +2.3% reading. The famous Jackson Hole symposium starts on Thursday.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 24

Open positions:

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 140.67 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.75 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5635, TAKE PROFIT 1.5789, STOP LOSS 1.5595

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7328 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2938

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

USD/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/GBP: Look to BUY

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

GBP/JPY: Look to SELL

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

__________________________________________________ ________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Trading plan for August 25

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AfNnagZOiI

On Monday, all the stock markets collapsed starting from China. Shanghai Composite fell by 8.5% in the Asian trade, pulling all the indices lower. As a result, market appetite turned negative and the commodity rout extended. Investors rushed into the safe-haven assets, such as EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. As for the metals, the only asset that survived for now is Gold. It stays in demand as a refuge.

We expect the current risk-off trend to continue until we see a significant rebound in China. Watch the Bank of China’s actions as at a certain point they will have to intervene to save the economy. We advise joining the trend and selling the commodity and risky assets until that happens. AUD and NZD are an attractive SELL these days.

EUR/USD is being bought as the carry trade operations became senseless in the current conditions. We expect the euro to stay supported as the crisis goes on. Buy the pair on dips to 1.1470. GBP/USD is also an attractive pair to go long after it closed above the 1.5700 resistance. Target 1.5800 and 1.5870 this week.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for August 25

Open positions:

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7295

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3058

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.56, STOP LOSS 139.05

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5215, TAKE PROFIT 1.5586, STOP LOSS 1.5115

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1485, TAKE PROFIT 1.1808, STOP LOSS 1.1400

USD/JPY: SELL at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 122.15

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5725, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5625

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

GBP/JPY: Look to BUY

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

__________________________________________________ __________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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USD/CAD: buy target - 1.3400
25 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3200
-Next buy target - 1.3400

USD/CAD yesterday broke sharply above the resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 at the start of August and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June - which is itself a part of the primary impulse wave ③ from May.

USD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3400 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). Strong support remains at 1.3200.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...1%20day)_1.png

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Forex trading plan for August 26

By Elizaveta Belugina

Chinese authorities finally addressed the economic and market turmoil by cutting the benchmark interest rate. The markets felt relief: stocks recovered and oil recovered, while the euro and the yen that strengthened as safe havens during the ‘Black Monday’ declined. US dollar was supported by the low-yielding currencies on the latest news from China as the move of the People’s Bank of China diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate hikes. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence improved. US durable goods orders will be released at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday (forecast is negative).

EUR/USD spiked towards 1.1715 on Monday, but is now testing 1.1500 to the downside. The pair met resistance of the mildly sloping uptrend, which has been in place since March. In the 1.1700 area, one can also find 55-week MA and resistance of the 2014-2015 decline. Resistance is at 1.1625, 1.1700 and 1.1800. There are signs of a top, and the euro will likely return lower. Support is at 1.1430, 1.1380 and 1.1280. Fundamentally, we think that the ECB won’t like to see the euro so high, so it will be more difficult for the single currency to get much higher at this point.

GBP/USD rose to 1.5800 on Monday closing above 1.5700 since the end of June. Pound should be more cheering of the recovery in oil that the euro. Still, resistance lies at 1.5815 (May high) ahead of 1.5900/30 (July high). Support is at 1.5700 and 1.5630. UK will release data only of the minor importance, so the market’s focus will remain on the US and risk sentiment.

USD/JPY is consolidating below resistance at 120.50 and 121.50. The pair was supported this week by the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-week MA. However, the advance of the US dollar will likely be limited as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike took a blow after the recent market’s turmoil. Support is at 119.40, 118.88 and 118.00.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7200 after testing 0.7038 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. Support is at 0.7170 and 0.7115. Resistance is at 0.7285, 0.7310 and 0.7335.

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Trading plan for August 27

Kira Iukhtenko

Policy stimulus launched by the Bank of China on Tuesday failed to support the Shanghai Composite (-1.3% on Wednesday). However, the overall market sentiment improved with the Brent price pausing its losses.

US Dollar index is seen recovering for a second day in a row and won back the sharp “black Monday” losses. However, it still fails to close above the 95 points resistance. US releases strong durable goods data on Wednesday, but the market reaction was muted. The market is still cautious about buying the greenback.

On Thursday, don’t miss the US Q2 GDP second estimate (forecast - upbeat) and the unemployment claims figures. Jackson Hole symposium starts tomorrow – comments on the global economy will likely follow.

EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure. The pair will be driven by the risk sentiment these days. The pair pulled back from the 55-week MA and the weekly Ichimoku. Fix below 1.1500 will open the way for a rapid slide to 1.1200.

GBP/USD also gave up ground, falling below 1.5700. The pair is testing 38.2% Fibo at 1.5570 as we speak. Bearish target -1.5520 (trend support).

USD/JPY behaves a bit differently: it’s far from recovering to the Monday’s opening levels. Resistance lies at 120.00/30. Support – 118.50 and 116.00. According to the Japanese government, yen is far from being expensive these days.

Commodity currencies remain a sell. Tomorrow we’ll be watching Australia private capital expenditure (a decline is expected). Data could easily pull AUD/USD down below 0.7100.

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GBP/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

Kira Iukhtenko

GBP/USD surge above 1.5700 turned out to be a fake breakout – the pair lost more than 300 pips by the end of the week. A strong bearish candle is being formed on the weekly chart (SELL signal). The cable broke the trendline connecting the May-August lows to the downside.

Weekly close below 1.5450 will become a strong signals for the sellers. Next levels to watch are 1.5330 и 1.5170. They are expected to be reached in the coming days. Recovery above 1.5500 is needed to revive the buying demand.

Next week we’ll watch the UK August PMI indices. Monday is a bank holiday – volatility could increase on a thin market. Weak US data and a new wave of Asian market selloff is a risk to our bearish view, however.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...USDWeekly1.png

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EUR/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1700 during the Black Monday reaching the conversion are of several important resistances. As the market was in great stress, the low-yielding euro was used as a safe haven. Then, however, global risk sentiment improved and the pair reversed to the downside sliding below 1.1300. Data released in the euro area in the past week as usual were mixed.

In Greece political deadlock was temporary resolved as a caretaker prime minister was appointed. Vassiliki Thanou, an opponent of austerity measures, will lead the country to September elections. It’s the first time Prime Minister position in Greece is occupied by a woman.

The main event of the coming week for the euro will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. There are many reasons for the ECB to show a dovish tone: inflation expectations in the euro area have fallen, oil prices have hit 6-year lows, while the euro’s exchange rate has become generally higher. Taking into account concerns about China’s economy and markets, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi will likely point out downside risks to European economy. Draghi will likely hint at the possibility of extending quantitative easing (QE) beyond September 2016. Comments like this will be negative for EUR/USD. Traders should also pay attention to the euro area’s flash August inflation figures on Monday as this release will be watched by the ECB.

Although we expect the ECB meeting to be a bearish factor for the euro, be aware of the fact that the market’s risk sentiment and the stock markets haven’t stabilized. This can make the single currency swing to the upside. As a result, one has to be prepared for volatile trading.

The technical picture for the euro looks bearish. A shooting start will the long upper shadow is ready to form on the weekly chart. Moreover, the pair returned below 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1150, 1.0950, 1.0850 and 1.0800. A bunch of resistance levels is located at 1.1380, 1.1430 and 1.1500 ahead of 1.1700.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...RUSDWeekly.png

EUR/USD, Daily

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USD/JPY: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY hit 116.15, the lowest level since the beginning of January, on Black Monday. Then as the market’s risk sentiment improved the pair returned to the previous support line of 2015 in the 121.50 area. Another positive factor for the US currency was the upward revision of America’s Q2 GDP growth.

As yen strengthened at the beginning of the past week, we got comments from Japanese officials that the move was too “rough”. Taking into account the risks from China, Japan’s monetary authorities will not want national currency to strengthen much further. As a result, they will likely step in with verbal interventions if the bears once again try to pull the pair to 116.00. In addition, there are rumors that Japan’s giant public pension fund (GPIF) is aggressively buying foreign assets to support USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, Japanese inflation data came out subdued. National core CPI was flat in July after rising by 0.2% in June. The more timely Tokyo CPI measure declined by 0.1% in August. It will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to achieve its 2% inflation target without further monetary stimulus. However, no such measures are expected within the next month

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...0inflation.png

Japanese core inflation, %

Next week traders will focus on the US economic releases and especially non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday. In Japanese economic calendar, we see some less important releases. All in all, although the market’s sentiment may improve, the uncertainty about China and the US Federal Reserve’s policy will remain limiting USD/JPY on the upside.

On its way up the greenback will have to overcome resistance at 121.50, 122.25, 123.10 and 124.50. Support is located at 119.60 and 118.30/00.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...JPYDaily_1.png

Daily, USD/JPY

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US Dollar: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6

Kira Iukhtenko

The Fed’s members have become much more dovish in their words after the last week’s market turmoil. However, demand for the US dollar recovered by the end of the week as the US data confirmed the ongoing recovery.

The chance of a rate hike in September went down last week, but it can’t completely written off. Anyway, the market continues pricing in a policy change in 2015.

We expect the US currency to strengthen over the next week. From the technical viewpoint, US Dollar index is forming a bearish triangle on a bullish market – sign of a mid-term trend continuation. Weekly candle with a long lower shadow confirms our short-term bullish view.

US data next week will be in the center of the market attention ahead of the September 17 meeting. Watch the August PMI indices. Most expected day of the week is Friday with its August labor market figures. The NFP release is expected to support the USD demand.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...%20weekly1.png

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MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
31 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0900 (4.75bn), 1.1000 (610m), 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1175, 1.1190, 1.1200 (781m), 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.1270, 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1415 (511m), 1.1500 (646m)

USD/JPY: 118.90, 119.00, 119.75, 119.80, 120.00, 120.40, 120.50, 122.65

AUD/USD: 0.7250

NZD/USD: 0.6585, 0.6600 (2.3bn), 0.6750 (976m)

EUR/JPY: 132.00 (526m), 136.00, 137.00 (1.35bn)

USD/CAD: 1.3200

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 31

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3140 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ __________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Sept 1

Kira Iukhtenko

We expect the US Dollar to strenghten this week ahead of the labor market data on Friday (forecasts are upbeat). Given this view, EUR/USD is a SELL these days with a target of 1.0950. Technical picture confirms the ideas as the pair pulled back from the 55-week MA, forming a long-legged red candle last week. Watch the unemployment rate in the euro area tomorrow.

GBP/USD also looks bearish this week, but the doji candle formed last Friday creates room for a bullish pullback. We recommend selling on rallies to 1.5480 (former trend support), targeting 1.5330. Watch the UK Manufacturing PMI tomorrow.

As for AUD/USD, the pair is trading in the red ahead of the RBA meeting on Tuesday. No rate cut is expected, so the pair could get temporary support from this side. This would become a good point to sell on rallies. Don't miss China's PMI indices on Tuesday - data could become a negative surprise for the commodity currencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce2ZOjGwU5A

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ______________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.2000
1 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.2000

GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 2.1400 (former resistance level which reversed the previous impulse wave 1 in July), the support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i). The upward reversal from this support zone completed the latest minor correction (ii).

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii) and 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.2000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 2.1400.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png

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Forex trading plan for September 2

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market’s risk sentiment remains unstable. Worse than expected manufacturing data from China on Tuesday morning once again provoked decline in stocks increasing demand for safe-haven euro and yen. US ISM manufacturing PMI came out lower than expected (51.1 vs. 52.6 forecast). This is the lowest reading since August 2013.

At the beginning of this week, traders were once again considering the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Note that the expectations of the market are very data-dependent. Watch the upcoming releases: weaker figures will hurt USD. On Wednesday, traders will be watching ADP non-farm employment change (12:15 GMT): it is believed that this labor market indicator provides hints for more important non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday.

EUR/USD rose, but failed to fix above the 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1200, 1.1150 and 1.1100 (key level) ahead of 1.1017. Resistance is at 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1380/1.1400. Advance of the single currency will likely be limited ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trying to hold above 1.5300 after it closed below the 200-day MA on Monday (1.5365). This level is now acting as resistance together with 1.5410/00. British manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected. Britain will release construction PMI at 08:30 GMT. Support is 1.5245, 1.5200 and 1.5170.

USD/JPY reversed down from 121.50 and slid to support at 119.60. Further support is at 118.90 and 118.30. As the uncertainty about the Fed’s policy remains, advance of the pair will be limited.

AUD/USD was testing levels below 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%. On Wednesday Australia will release Q2 GDP data. The nation’s economic growth is expected to slow down from 0.9% to 0.4%. Support is at 0.7000 (psychological level), 0.6989 (April 28 2009 low) and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7150.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 2

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 121.30

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7164

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 133.31, STOP LOSS 136.65

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895

Trade ideas:

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6519

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ___________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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