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MARKET NEWS
Feb. 17: FOREX NEWS

EUR/USD fell from the levels above 1.1400 to the 1.1320 area. Euro fell as Greece and the euro area didn’t reach agreement on further financing of the country. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis rejected a proposal to request a 6-month extension of the bailout program. Still the euro’s decline is limited as most traders expect a debt deal to be made at the last minute. The head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that Greece has until Friday to request an extension. Varoufakis said that Greece will return to negotiating as it’s willing to extend the current aid program, but only on the right terms. “We are ready and willing to do whatever it takes to reach an honorable agreement over the next 2 days,” he stated.

Commodity currencies are holding their ground versus USD. AUD/USD is trading on the upside in the 0.7800 area. According to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting, the central bank debated whether to cut interest rates this month or next, but then decided to do it earlier.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 118.50 area. GBP/USD is trading just above 1.5350 waiting for the UK inflation data.

Here are the most important evens for today:
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...20calendar.jpg

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 17

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1383, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1298

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9445, STOP LOSS 0.9168

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7725, STOP LOSS 0.7800, Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0800 FIRST, STOP LOSS 1.0525

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG, Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 180.15

Trade signals:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5325, TAKE PROFIT 1.5500, STOP LOSS 1.5265

EUR/JPY: SELL at 134.80, TAKE PROFIT 132.73, STOP LOSS 135.60

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7457, TAKE PROFIT 0.7307, STOP LOSS 0.7517

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7475, TAKE PROFIT 0.7609, STOP LOSS 0.7405

USD/JPY: BUY at 117.88/67

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ________

*Traders apply trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Feb. 18

EUR/USD recovered to the 1.1440 area. The fate of Greece remains undecided, but the market remains hopeful. However, it looks like the final decision won’t be made until Friday. The uncertainty may give bears the power to push the pair to 1.1300 and lower. On Wednesday the ECB will review the program which currently allows Greek banks to get liquidity from the Bank of Greece. If the ECB bans the program, this will add more pressure on Greek politicians to accept the bailout and thus can render the euro support after an initial decline.

The overall market sentiment about the US dollar in general will depend on America’s statistics (building permits, PPI, industrial production) and the FOMC meeting minutes. Let me remind you that USD strengthened after the Fed’s January meeting as the central bank improved estimates of the US economy. At the same time, the central bank has a wait-and-see approach, so we don’t expect big hints on further interest rates moves.

GBP/USD may be forming a wedge. The pair’s still feeling pressure from the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Lower than expected British inflation data has diminished the enthusiasm of the bulls. In addition, the decline of EUR/GBP has paused. Support for GBP/USD is at 1.5260 and then in the 1.5155 area. Resistance is at 1.5480 and 1.5540. Watch the UK labor market data and the Bank of England’s meeting minutes at 09:30 GMT. Members of British central bank will likely votes to keep rates unchanged. This may calm the bulls.

USD/JPY is facing resistance at 119.20. The top at 120.47 is still dominating the market. Support is in the 188.30 area. A decline below this point will trigger a bigger selloff activating a head & shoulders pattern. During the Asian session pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s meeting. No further monetary stimulus is expected, and this may increase demand for JPY.

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MARKET NEWS
Feb. 18: FOREX NEWS

EUR/USD is consolidating just at 1.1400. The European Central Bank will decide later today whether to maintain emergency lending to Greek banks which have so far been rapidly losing deposits. If the ECB refuses to increase the ceiling on the emergency lending assistance, Greek banks will get in trouble as they have almost used up all 65 billion euros granted so far.

Chinese Lunar New Year holidays started today, so some Asian markets will be closed in the coming days. As a result, currency trading during the Asian session should be calmer, though news will have bigger impact on exchange rates.

AUD/USD is trading above 0.7800 supported by the news of the proposed $5.1 billion takeover of Toll Holdings, Australia’s biggest freight firm, by Japan Post Holdings.

USD/JPY is trading in the 119.20 area after an initial decline to 118.87. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged, but upgraded its assessment of exports and output.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...20calendar.jpg

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 18

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1383, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1298

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5325, TAKE PROFIT 1.5500, STOP LOSS 1.5265

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9445, STOP LOSS 0.9168

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0548 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.00 (revised)

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

EUR/JPY: BUY at 135.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 133.90

EUR/GBP: SELL AT 0.7457, TAKE PROFIT 0.7307, STOP LOSS 0.7517

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7475, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: SELL

__________________________________________________ ________

*Traders apply trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

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MARKET NEWS
Key option levels

18 February 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1300 (EUR 2bln), 1.1350 (EUR 500m), 1.1400 (EUR 1.95bln), 1.1430 (EUR 471m);

GBP/USD: 1.5350 (GBP 200m);

USD/JPY: 117.90/118.00 (USD 1.9bln), 118.50 (USD 1.4bln), 119.00 (USD 828m) 119.50 (USD 2.2bln);

USD/CHF: 0.9385 (USD 200m), 0.9500 (USD 463m);

AUD/USD: 0.7715 (AUD 557m), 0.7815 (AUD 240m);

AUD/JPY: 91.15 (AUD 350m);

EUR/JPY: 135.25 (EUR 200m), 136.40 (EUR 412m);

EUR/GBP:0.7500 (EUR 412m).

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Trading plan for Feb. 19

By Kira Iukhtenko

The Greek question continues dominating the EUR/USD pair. On Wednesday the exchange rate slipped below the 1.1400 support. Daily close below 1.1360 would be a bearish signal, opening the way towards 1.1310 and 1.1270. Resistance is seen at 1.1450. There is a market speculation that the ECB faces resistance from Germany to allow extra emergency lending for Greek banks. Earlier in the day Greece accused the Eurogroup of changing the draft they previously agreed on Tuesday just at the last minute.On Thursday the ECB is scheduled to release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for the first time, trying to increase transparency.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.5440 after the arrival of UK employment data. Unemployment rate lowered to 5.7% in December, while average wages rose from 1.7% to 2.1%. Later in the day the BOE minutes showed MPC voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged. Despite the upbeat news, we remain skeptical about the long-term GBP/USD prospects: UK consumer prices keep on falling, playing against the rate hike expectations. Technically, the bulls could face resistance at the 1.5475 barrier. Watch the UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations on Thursday.

USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. The yen met some buying interest on Wednesday after the BOJ left its monetary policy unchanged. Watch the Japanese trade balance on Thursday night. Demand for the commodity currencies remains limited. AUD/USD pulled down from the 0.7800 resistance area, while NZD/USD failed to overcome the 0.7600 mark (50% Fibonacci). New Zealand is scheduled to release PPI tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZGnCws9pY4

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 19

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1383, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1298

USD/JPY:Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

GBP/USD:Hold LONG at 1.5325, TAKE PROFIT 1.5500, STOP LOSS 1.5265

USD/CHF:Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9650, STOP LOSS 0.9282

AUD/USD:Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

USD/CAD:Hold SHORT at 1.2420, TAKE PROFIT 1.2200, STOP LOSS 1.2501

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7397, TAKE PROFIT 0.7574, STOP LOSS 0.7332

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0548

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.00

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 135.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 133.90

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7475, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Feb. 20

Greece is the main topic for EUR/USD as it made a request for a 6-month credit which got rejected by Germany. The Eurogroup meeting will take place tomorrow. There are many levels to watch on the upside and the downside. Support for euro is at 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1270 and 1.1200. Resistance is in the 1.1440/50 area and at 1.1500. Volatility is going to increase as the fate of Greece will be determined in the hours to come. Most traders still expect a last-minute compromise. The euro area will release flash PMI data on Friday.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5480 (23.6% Fibo of July-January decline) before more resistance in the 1.5550/5600 area. Watch British retail sales figures at 09:30 GMT (forecast is negative). Support is at 1.5400 and a fall below this level will jeopardize the ongoing positive tone making the pair vulnerable for a decline to 1.5350 and 1.5300.

USD/JPY is now caught between 119.40 and 118.40. The consolidation will likely continue. AUD/USD is capped by strong resistance at 0.7850. Support is at 0.7720 and 0.7625.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUbtp6yOyq0

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 20

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1383, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1298

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5325, TAKE PROFIT 1.5541, STOP LOSS 1.5335

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 135.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 133.90

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7397, TAKE PROFIT 0.7574, STOP LOSS 0.7342

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.45

Trade ideas:

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2697, STOP LOSS 1.2416

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7475, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

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GBP/JPY: trade opportunity
20 February 2015, 10:10

By Dima Chernovolov

• GBP/JPY reached buy targets 180.00 and 182.00

• Next buy target - 186.00

GBP/JPY recently rose sharply – breaking above the two resistance levels 180.00 and 182.00, which were set as the buy targets in our previous technical analysis report for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels continues the active primary Ⓒ-wave from the start of February. The price recently corrected shortly down inside the second intermediate correction (2) of this Ⓒ-wave toward the former resistance level 182.00 (acting as support now after it was broken by the previous impulse (1)).

The price then reversed up from 182.00 with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing (highlighted below). GBP/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at 186.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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NZD/CHF: trade idea

20 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• NZD/CHF breaks resistance level 0.7090

• Next buy targets - 0.7200 and 0.7300

NZD/CHF has been rising steadily in the last couple weeks – in line with our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke above the resistance levels 0.6900 and 0.7000, which were set previously set as the buy targets for NZD/CHF. The breakout of these resistance levels accelerated the upward movement of this currency pair – helping NZD/CHF break above the next pivotal resistance level 0.7090 (former major support level which reversed the pair sharply in May of 2012 and in August of 2013, as you can see from the weekly NZD/CHF chart below).

NZD/CHF is likely to continue to rise strongly in the coming trading sessions toward the next buy targets 0.7200 and 0.7300. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the broken resistance level 0.7090.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...%20week%29.png

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USD awaits Yellen's testimony
23 February 2015

By: Kira Iukhtenko

According to the Federal Reserve's minutes of Jan. 27-28 meeting, many FOMC members think that the interest rates should stay near 0 for a longer time period because of low inflation and other risks. The central bank wants to see signs of continuing economic growth and recovery in inflation before raising rates. Policy minutes became a negative surprise for the dollar bulls.

Does it mean that we have to drop our June rate hike expectations? I’d better not judge hastily. The labor market is showing an upbeat dynamics over the past moths. What’s more, a stronger oil price recovery in the coming months would support the US inflation.

On the new week the US currency is expected to strengthen ahead of the Janet Yellen’s testimony on Tuesday, Feb. 24. She could pay attention to the positive economic developments that took place over the past weeks. Yellen is unlikely to discuss hate hike terms, but “hawks” would be grateful for any optimistic comments. You should also pay attention to the consumer price index on Thursday and to the preliminary Q4 GDP on Friday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0YLH2opl8w

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EUR/USD: another eventful week
23 February 2015, 10:34

Another eventful week is in store for the euro. On Monday Germany will release Ifo Business Climate index. On Tuesday the euro zone’s final inflation data for January will be published: according to the initial estimate, consumer prices contracted by 0.6%. This was the first decline since late 2009.

In addition, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak on Tuesday and Wednesday. Pay special attention to the second one as Draghi will testify to the European Parliament.

On Thursday the ECB will conduct the third round of TLTRO. Within this program the ECB will provide liquidity to commercial banks of the region so that they could lend to the real economy. Usually TLTRO leads to lower long-term interest rates and weakens euro. The higher is the demand for credit from commercial banks, the stronger is the bearish impact on euro. On Friday watch important economic data from Germany and France.

Despite risks associated with Greece, market players are rather calm and may remain so supporting the single currency. Temporary solution of the Greek problem will be positive for the euro. Resistance for EUR/USD lies at 1.1500 and 1.1650. Support is at 1.1200 and 1.1100.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9ipHKe0k5I

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USD/JPY: expect further consolidation
23 February 2015

Last week USD/JPY consolidated: the pair was sold on approaches to 119.50 and bought in the 118.20/40 area. The sideways movement of the pair may continue. On the one hand, US dollar breached December-January triangle to the upside which is theoretically a medium term positive signal. Resistance is at 120.82 and 121.84. On the other hand, decline below the breached triangle in the 118.00 area will give the bears power to test 117.30/00.

The minutes of the January Fed’s meeting turned out to be more dovish than expected. American data aren’t very sustainable. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, has improved its assessment of Japanese economy. In the last months of 2014 Japan has finally emerged from recession. Recently Abe’s government has announced a year of reforms.

On Monday Japan will release the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s meeting. On Friday don’t miss important statistics from Japan including inflation, retail sales and industrial production.

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GBP/AUD: trade idea
23 February 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/AUD reverses from support level 1.9600
Next buy target - 2.0000
GBP/AUD earlier reversed down from resistance level 2.0000, intersecting with the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from September of 2014. The latest downward correction from 2.0000 today reversed up from the support level 1.9600 (former resistance from the start of this month, which also reversed this currency pair last week, as you can see from the daily GBP/AUD chart below).

The pair is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target 2.000 inside the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of November. If the downward correction resumes - GBP/AUD will most likely fall to the nearby support level 1.9400 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse 3) – from where the price is expected to reverse up toward 2.0000.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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USD/JPY: target at 120.50
23 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reversed from support zone near 118.50

• Next buy target - 120.50

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the combined support zone lying between the following support levels: support level 118.50 (former resistance level which reversed the price multiple times in the second half of January), the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily Triangle from December (acting as support now after it was broken earlier) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the strong support level 116.00 (which reversed the pair with the daily Bullish Engulfing in January and in last December, as you can see below).

USD/JPY is expected to continue to rise in the coming trading sessions toward the next buy target 120.50 (which reversed the price strongly on the 12th of February).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 24

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.70, TAKE PROFIT 120.48, STOP LOSS 117.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.7907, STOP LOSS 0.7715

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2501

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7510, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7450

Trade signals:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5588, STOP LOSS 1.5328

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.10, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.50

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7385, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7465

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ___

*Traders apply trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
24 February 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1285 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.1300 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.1315 (EUR 543m)

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 428m), 118.50/60 (USD 290m), 119.55 (USD 300m), 119.75 (USD 517m)

AUD/USD:0.7800/10 (AUD 325m)

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EUR/GBP: trade idea
24 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

EUR/GBP reached sell targets 0.7380 and 0.7340
Next sell targets - 0.7300 and 0.7200

EUR/GBP has been falling sharply in the last 2 weeks – reaching the two sell targets that were set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair (0.7380 and 0.7340). The price recently corrected shortly up to test the former support level 0.7430 (acting as resistance now after it was broken by the active minor impulse earlier this month) – from where it reversed down sharply and continues to fall at the time of the writing.

The pair is currently approaching the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from the middle of 2011 (as you can see from the weekly EUR/GBP chart below). If EUR/GBP breaks and closes below this support trendline, the pair can then fall to the next sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7200 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse 3).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...%20week%29.png

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AUD/USD: next sell target
24 February 2015

by Dima Chernovolov

• AUD/USD reversed from resistance zone

• Next sell target - 0.7640

AUD/USD yesterday reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7860 (which also previously reversed the price at the start of February, as you can see below), the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the end of the earlier intermediate correction (4) (which stopped in the middle of January), and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal form this resistance zone created the Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Dark Cloud Cover.

With the daily RSI still trading in the neutral territory, AUD/USD will most likely continue to fall in the nearest time - in line with the strong downtrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next sell target 0.7640 (which reversed the price twice earlier this month).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD
24 February 2015

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.100, STOP LOSS 1.1451 (entered on Feb. 24)

Bank of America Merill Lynch is ready to SELL from 1.1290, TAKE PROFIT 1.0765, STOP LOSS 1.1451 (entered on Feb. 23)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.1370, TAKE PROFIT 1.0700, STOP LOSS 1.1470 (entered on Feb. 6)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on Feb. 6)

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 1.1390, TAKE PROFIT 1.1105, STOP LOSS 1.1505 (entered on Feb. 5)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.1450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0800, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on Feb. 3)

Crédit Agricole holds SHORT from 1.1340, TAKE PROFIT 1.0600, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on Feb. 3)

JPMorgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on Jan. 26)

Danske Bank holds from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.1940 (entered on Jan. 20)

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Forex trading plan for Feb. 25

EUR/USD is leaning to the downside. Support is at 1.1260 and 1.1200. Greece has revealed the list of reforms. According to the European Commission, this is a valid starting point. However, investors see now that Greek question won’t be solved soon, so upside potential for the euro is limited. The ECB president Mario Draghi will make speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may comment on monetary policy.

GBP/USD remains capped by the 1.5480 resistance (23.6% Fibo). Next resistance lies at 1.5589 and 1.5800, support – at 1.5370. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney said today UK inflation turn negative in the nearest future, but it’s expected to recover quickly. BOE notes stable wage growth. Carney will also speak tomorrow at 10:00 GMT. On Thursday watch the second Q4 GDP estimate (no changes expected).

USD/JPY keeps trading sideways. The pair rose above 119.40. This opens the way up to 119.60 and 120.00/25. Support is located at 118.33/27 and buyers should become active in case of decline to this point. Below 118.27 a decline towards 117.30 is possible.

Aussie dollar keeps on consolidating above the 0.7700 mark. However, the pair was once again rejected by resistance at 0.7850 on Monday. On Wednesday watch the release of China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLqDS5o101A

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 25

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5588, STOP LOSS 1.5328

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7735

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 182.50

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7490, STOP LOSS 0.7540

Trade signals:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.17, TAKE PROFIT 135.94, STOP LOSS 133.50

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7380, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7435

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4230, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4345

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2545, TAKE PROFIT 1.2353, STOP LOSS 1.2620

USD/JPY: Look to BUY

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Forex trading plan for Feb. 26

EUR/USD remains mostly flat. The pair’s waiting for fresh catalysts. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi is to speak on Wednesday at 16:30 GMT and may make some comments on monetary policy. On Thursday Germany releases a set of data on unemployment numbers, retail sales figures and Gfk consumer confidence data. The euro area will publish business climate and M3 money supply data. Meanwhile, the ECB releases the targeted LTRO amount at 10:15 GMT. The outlook is neutral/negative. Thepairmaystaystuckinthe1.1440/1.1260 area.

On Tuesday USD/JPY formed a long spike up reaching 119.80. Then cane a selloff which brought the pair down to the 100-meriod MA on the H4 chart. Resistance is at 119.60 and 120.00. Support is in the 118.30 area ahead of 117.30. Uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike points at sideways trading. There will be no news from Japan until Friday, so pay attention to the US economic figures, especially inflation data due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.

GBP/USD is trading above the previous resistance at 1.5480. The Bank of England’s Martin Weale said that rates may need to rise earlier than markets expect. Although Weale has already said this recently, this time his words encouraged the bulls as the Fed’s comments were, on the contrary, very moderate. The UK will release revised Q4 GDP data at 09:30 GMT. According to the initial estimate, the nation’s economic growth has slowed down to 0.5%. Technically pound is trying to break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud, although it seems that it lacks strength. The close above 1.5520 would be a positive signal. Next resistance is at 1.5580 (100-day MA) and 1.5620 (Dec. 31 high). Support is at 1.5400 and 1.5350.

AUD/USD pushed to 0.7900, gaining more than 70 pips on Wednesday. Aussie was supported by upbeat Chinese HSBC PMI that has finally overcome the 50 points waterline. The pair recovered above 38.2% Fibonacci from the late-January decline, confirming a local bottom at 0.7630. Next resistance to watch lies at 0.7960 and 0.8000. Focus on the Australian capital expenditure data on Thursday (-1.7% expected versus 0.2% prior) - they could spoil the bullish picture. All the other market drivers this week will refer to the US dollar.

USD/CAD extends the decline for a second day in a row, testing the 1.2400 support on Wednesday. Next support to watch lies at 1.2350. Canada (alongside with the United States) will release inflation data on Thursday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIPSXxv34CA

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Feb. 26

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1451

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5621, STOP LOSS 1.5395

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9602, STOP LOSS 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7775, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7790

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0629

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 183.40

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.90

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2355, TAKE PROFIT 1.2697, STOP LOSS 1.2294

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7355, TAKE PROFIT 0.7254, STOP LOSS 0.7405

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4230, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4345

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7510, TAKE PROFIT 0.7690, STOP LOSS 0.7460

USD/JPY: BUY lower

__________________________________________________ ________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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CAD/JPY: buy opportunity

26 February 2015

• CAD/JPY reached buy target 96.00

• Next buy targets - 98.00 and 99.00

CAD/JPY recently reversed down after the price reached the resistance level 96.00, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this instrument. The downward reversal from this resistance level completed the preceding intermediate impulse (1) from the end of January and started the latest intermediate correction (2). This downward correction then stopped near the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the aforementioned impulse (1) (as you can see from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The pair is currently approaching the resistance level 96.00.

If CAD/JPY breaks the resistance level 96.00, the price can then rise in the active intermediate impulse (3) (belonging to the primary Ⓒ-wave from last month) to the next buy targets – 98.00 and 99.00 (forecast price for the termination of impulse (3)).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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AUD/USD: bulls keep pressuring
26 February 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The bulls have managed to steal the initiative. Despite the break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border, the currency pair has failed to consolidate in the negative zone. The bulls counterattack has ended up in an upward break through the cloud and, apparently, they are aiming to fix above the 78th figure.

They will be supported by the cloud upper border and the Tenkan and Kijun lines.

Oscillators have also turned upwards, indicating bullish sentiment of the market participants.

Technical levels: support – 0.7830; resistance – 0.7930.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7830; SL — 0.7810; TP1 — 0.7900; TP2 — 0.7930.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...UDUSDH4-TN.png

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USD/JPY: bulls having hard time

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

A couple of days ago, the bulls managed to break out of the cloud zone into the positive area. However, the resistance in the 119.40-119.60 area has killed their enthusiasm pretty quickly. Unsuccessful breakthrough made prices go back to the Ichimoku support level - 118.60.

At the moment, the situation is uncertain. On the one hand, the Golden Cross is active and the cloud is bullish. But the prices failure to consolidate above the Tenkan and Kijun lines speaks of the buyers weakness. We do not rule out a possibility of the dollar weakening against the yen.

Technical levels: support – 118.60; resistance – 119.00, 119.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell— 118.50; SL — 118.70; TP1 — 117.80; TP2 — 117.50.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...sdjpyh4-TN.png

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EUR/AUD: trade idea
26 February 2015

By Dima Chernovolov


EUR/AUD reaches sell target 1.4400
Next sell target - 1.4200
EUR/AUD recently reached the sell target 1.4400, which was set in our previous report for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down twice from the strong resistance zone set between the following resistance levels – the former support trendline of the daily up channel from September (acting as resistance now after it was broken in January), the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse (1) from December, resistance level 1.4900 and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

Two reversals from the aforementioned resistance zone marked the end of previous waves A and (2). EUR/AUD is currently trading close to the support level 1.4400. If the price breaks this support, EUR/AUD can then fall in the active impulse (3) to the next sell target 1.4200.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Forex trading plan for Feb. 27

US dollar rose as core inflation gained 0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected), while durable goods orders rose by 2.8% after falling by 3.3% in the previous period. Despite the negative headline inflation (-0.7%), the expectations of the Fed’s June rate hike are back. On Friday the US will release the second estimate of Q4 GDP (a revision down from 2.6% to 2.1% is expected).

EUR/USD is below 1.1260. Next levels to watch are 1.1210 and 1.1100. Resistance has switched to 1.1280 and 1.1350.

GBP/USD has tested another high at 1.5550 supported by the decline of EUR/GBP, but then fell on stronger USD. A band of resistance is located at 1.5580/1.5600/1.5620. Support is at 1.5420/00 and then at 1.5400.

USD/JPY will likely be sold on approaches to 119.60. Next resistance is at 120.00. Japan will release a bloc of the economic data on Friday during the Asian session. Forecasts are not very positive, but the Bank of Japan has signaled that it wants to wait with further stimulus, so the negative impact on yen shouldn’t be big. Support is at 118.80 and in the 118.30 area.

AUD/USD is trying to push above 0.7900, but the 200-period MA at H4 chart is a serious obstacle which has been capping the pair foe many months. Support is at 0.7770 and 0.7720. Resistance is at 0.7950 and 0.8025. The risk of the RBA’s rate cut next week will limit Aussie’s advance.

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EUR/NZD: trade idea
27 February 2015

Dima Chernovolov

EUR/NZD approaches sell target 1.4800
Next sell target - 1.4600

EUR/NZD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – in accordance with our earlier forecast for this currency pair. EUR/NZD previously broke the support level 1.5200 – after which it corrected up to test this price level (acting as resistance after it was broken). The resistance zone near 1.5200 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of February. The pair reversed down from this resistance zone with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing - signaling the acceleration of the active minor impulse wave 3.

EUR/NZD is currently approaching the sell target 1.4800 which was set previously for this pair. If it breaks 1.4800, the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.4600.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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USD: what to expect next week?
27 February 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Federal Reserve sees the economy recovering, but waits for clear signals to begin hiking interest rates. The labor market dynamics seems to be on track, while low inflation, expensive currency and external threats stall the tightening.

Last week the US Chiar Yellen sounded more dovish than hawkish when testifying in Congress on Tuesday. The wording “patient” in forward guidance means rates are to stay low for at least two meetings. What’s more, rates could be increased only after the inflation stabilizes. However, we remain bullish in our USD forecasts: the Fed’s is still planning to raise rates and discusses the right timing.

On Thursday the US released inflation figures. Markets focused on core CPI that returned into the positive territory. As a result, demand for the US dollar revived. On the new week pay attention to the PMI indices on Monday and on Wednesday. On Friday the labor market data will come into the limelight. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the US currency, but the market still has a chance to form a bullish candle for the 8th month in a row.

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EUR/CAD: sell targets
27 February 2015

Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/CAD fall inside intermediate impulse (3)

• Next sell targets - 1.3900 and 1.3800

EUR/CAD has been under significant bearish pressure lately – after the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.4600 and 1.4400 (this resistance zone has been reversing the pair from last October, as you can see below). This resistance area was also strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band, the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier downward impulse from March and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily down channel from August. The downward reversal form this resistance area marked the end of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from January.

EUR/CAD is expected to fall further in the active intermediate impulse (3) to the next sell targets 1.3900 and 1.3800 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse (1) in January).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
2 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 909m), 1.1200 (EUR 673m), 1.1300 (EUR 594m), 1.1320/25 (EUR 908m), 1.1340 (415m);

GBP/USD: 1.5500 (311m);

USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 650m), 118.00 (USD 1bln), 120.00 (USD 1.7bln), 121.50 (USD 700m);

AUD/USD: 0.7750 (AUD 520m), 0.7800 (AUD 418m), 0.7910 (AUD 747m).

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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
2 March 2015

By Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The market is currently forming a wave flat B (final part). Let's review the details.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/eurusd1.PNG

Daily. We see a strong bearish trend that has been forming for a year. The final bearish impulse (5) is now being formed.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/eurusd2.PNG

H4. Wave 4 of (5) is a double tripple. On the new week we expect a bearish trend to be constructed with small rising or horizontal corrections.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/eurusd3.PNG

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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
2 March 2015

Weekly. The market is forming a multi-month bearish trend C (part of a global bearish zigzag).
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/gbpusd1.PNG

Daily. Markup of the wave C is drawn on the chart. After a bullish zigzag (3) we expect a decline in a new impulse (5).
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/gbpusd2.PNG

H4. See the wave (4) in the details. The decline will continue at the beginning of the new week. We recommend going short at the end of a short-term bullish correction.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/gbpusd3.PNG

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AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
2 March 2015

Weekly. The market is forming a long-term bearish correction [b] (bearish tripple zigzag). Let's see the markup of the wave A of (z).
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/audusd1.PNG

Daily. Bearish correction [4] is now being formed. The decline will be extended in a wave [5].
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/audusd2.PNG

H4. The first part of the double tripple – (w) - has been finished. We expect a decline in a wave (x) to follow. It could become a zigzag. Bullish wave (y) will follow.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/audusd3.PNG

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USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
2 March 2015

Weekly. Wave [V] of a long-term bullish trend is now being formed.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/usdjpy1.PNG

H12. The market has formed a converging horizontal triangle. The price is now forming a new bullish trend. On the new week we expect a bullish wave III to be built.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana.../02/usdjy2.PNG

H4. Waves I-II and [i]-[ii] are constructed. We expect a bullish move. Break above the top of the I impulse would be a bullish trigger.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...02/usdjpy3.PNG

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1180 (EUR 600m), 1.1200 (320m), 1.1290 (EUR 250m), 1.1350 (EUR 350m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 300m), 119.75 (USD 250m), 121.00 (USD 430m)

USD/CHF: 0.9500 (USD 250m)

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 255m), 0.7750 (AUD 273m), 0.7800 (AUD 364m), 0.7900 (AUD 398m)

AUD/JPY:92.80 (AUD 289m)

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Key option levels - Forex Analytics