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EUR/USD
forecast for Mar. 2-8
What to expect from EUR/USD on the coming week?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_Ka8rqZbi0

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GBP/USD
forecast for Mar. 2-8

On the new week pay attention to the PMI indices – they will likely confirm ongoing the economic recovery. The Bank of England holds its policy meeting on Thursday. What to expect?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY3s5lopu04

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD did it best to hold above the 1.1200 figure, but failed. The pair is gradually approaching the January low of 1.1097 – break lower would open a direct way to parity. Euro zone released relatively upbeat data at the beginning of the week, but the general picture remains bearish. Watch the Services PMI indices on Wednesday. On Thursday the market will focus on the ECB policy meeting that will be followed by the Draghi’s press conference. Traders await the details of the 1-trillion-euro ECB’s QE program that begins in mid-March.

Net long USD positions have been growing since the beginning of the week. USDIndexhashitan 11-yearhighonMonday. In our view, the ECB meeting could become a good “excuse” for the market to push with a new dollar rally. US employment and wages data on Friday could render further support for the American currency.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped down towards the 1.5350 mark following the last week’s push to 1.5550, The BOE meeting on Thursday will likely be a non-event. Watch UK inflationary expectations on Friday – the figures could weigh on the sterling.

AUD/USD jumped to 0.7840 as the RBA left rates unchanged at 2.25%, but we see growth limited. Markets will be waiting for a rate cut on the next meeting. The expectations will pressure the Aussie in the coming weeks. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday (forecast: +0.7%, Q3: +0.3%). You should also watch Chinese Service sector HSBC PMI on Wednesday. Even if the data are upbeat, we recommend selling AUD/USD from 0.7900/15.

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EUR: get ready for the ECB meeting
4 March 2015

By Elizaveta Belugina

Last week EUR/USD closed below 1.1210 (61.8% Fibo of the 2000-2008 move). This week this area acts as resistance.

As the European Central Bank has announced 1.1 trillion euro ($1.23 trillion) bond-buying quantitative easing program (QE) in January and pledged to conduct in until Sept. 2016, its policy direction is in general clear to the market. As a result, the impact on the meeting on the euro probably won’t be very strong.

Still, the market players want more details about the European QE. The ECB promised to purchase 60 billion euro of securities per month and traders want to see if and how the central bank manages to buy this amount.

Taking into account the recently improved data from the euro area, the expected effects of the loose monetary policy, as well as those of the lower euro and oil prices, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi can provide a more optimistic growth outlook. However, to justify QE the central bank’s inflation forecast may deteriorate in comparison with December estimate. If inflation forecast is revised up, the euro would jump in the short term as in this case the market will start speculating that QE may end earlier than in Sept. 2016. Another thing to watch will be the signs of whether the ECB plans to restore Greek banks’ access to open-market operations.

In case of a short squeeze EUR/USD will find resistance in the 1.1360 area. Support is at 1.1100 and 1.1000. Still, as the ECB will start buying bonds this month, it will limit demand for the euro in any case. It also seems that the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike are now more important for EUR/USD than news out of the euro area. As a result, the best trading strategy should be selling on the pair’s attempt to recover to 1.14.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20daily.jpg

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 4

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1247

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 120.82, STOP LOSS 119.05

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5365, TAKE PROFIT 1.5621, STOP LOSS 1.5305

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9700, STOP LOSS 0.9534 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 132.00, STOP LOSS 134.80

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0730, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0678

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4065, TAKE PROFIT 1.3805, STOP LOSS 1.4155

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 183.40 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7470

__________________________________________________ ____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for March 5

EUR/USD has weakened to the levels just above 1.1100. The euro is feeling pressure ahead of the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1215, 1.1270 and 1.1320. Further support is at 1.1050 and 1.1000.

GBP/USD has retraced 38.2% of the advance from January low to February high. The pair was rejected at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and may fall to its bottom in the 1.5200 zone. Support is in the 1.5310 area (55-day MA). The Bank of England is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged.

USD/JPY failed to hold above 120.00 on Tuesday and may decline to 118.85/77 area where it should find more support. Resistance is in the 120.25/50 area. On Thursday watch US unemployment claims, factory orders and the speech of FOMC Member Williams.

AUD/USD is once again testing 0.7850 which corresponds with the long-term trend line resistance. Australia will release retail sales and trade balance data early on Thursday. Next resistance is at 0.7915. The expectations of RBA’s rate cut are pushed back, not dismissed, so Aussie will probably be limited on the upside. Support is at 0.7800 and 0.7750.

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
5 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 911m), 1.1150 (EUR 1bln), 1.1200 (EUR 1.2bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5300 (GBP 150m);

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 948m), 119.25 (USD 800m), 119.50 (USD 385m), 120.00 (3bln);

USD/CHF: 0.9645/50 (USD 930m);

AUD/USD: 0.7850 (AUD 1.87bln);

NZD/USD: 0.7355-60 (NZD 375m);

AUD/JPY: 0.9650/55 (AUD 450m).

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Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 5

Open positions: *

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1000, STOP LOSS 1.1247

USD/JPY: Hold LONG AT 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 120.82, STOP LOSS 119.05

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT AT 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.70, STOP LOSS 133.81

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7619, STOP LOSS 0.7490

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 0.9765, STOP LOSS 0.9534

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5315, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5380

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ___________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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GBP/USD: trade idea
5 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

GBP/USD completed primary ABC correction ②
Next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100
GBP/USD continues to fall after recently reversing down from the strong resistance level 1.5520 (former strong support which reversed the pair in December, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.5520 was strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the previous sharp extended downward impulse from September, upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the narrow daily up channel which has enclosed the (C)-wave of the preceding primary ABC correction ②.

The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the aforementioned primary correction ②. GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active primary downward impulse ③ toward the next sell targets - 1.51600 and 1.5100.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 6

On Friday the main event of the day will surely be the release of the US labor market data at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, US Non-Farm Payrolls have increased in Feb. by 240K after gaining 257K in Jan. American unemployment rate is seen declining from 5.7% to 5.6%. The average hourly earnings’ growth is expected to slow down. NFP above 200K will confirm expectations of the Fed’s hike this summer and will be positive for USD.

EUR/USD remains to be sold. The bearish trend reinforced when the pair broke below the recent lows. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1150 and 1.1215. Thebearswillremaininchargebelow1.1260. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0950. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi has announced that the quantitative easing program (QE) will start on Monday, March 9. Although much of QE is already priced in EUR/USD and Draghi pointed out that the euro zone’s economy improved a bit, divergence between the ECB’s and the Fed’s monetary policies keeps the euro under pressure. In the first half of the day EUR/USD will likely be consolidating ahead of NFP.

The bulls were eager to buy USD/JPY. There’s still resistance in the 120.25/50 and then 120.80 areas to overcome, but the move up towards 124.00 is approaching. Support is at 118.85/70. Japanese authorities could try to discourage the buyers around 121.00, but is the USD rally is broad, the pair will continue going up. So, it all depends on the US data.

GBP/USD in on the downside and may test support at 1.5190/80. Failure to hold there will provoke decline to 1.5080. Resistance is in the1.5300/25 area. AUD/USD lacks strength to break above 0.7850. Support lies at 0.7720.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ABdg92BqCM

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 6

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.0829, STOP LOSS 1.1247 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.86, STOP LOSS 119.33 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 0.9625 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7880

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2380

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 131.17, STOP LOSS 133.81 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7305

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5290, TAKE PROFIT 1.5182, STOP LOSS 1.5350 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3835, TAKE PROFIT 1.3650, STOP LOSS 1.3915

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.15, TAKE PROFIT 185.0, STOP LOSS 181.50

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7520, TAKE PROFIT 0.7313, STOP LOSS 0.7570

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Large banks: how to trade NFP?
6 March 2015

Currency market will be focused on the US Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday at 13:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, the US economy added 240K new jobs in February versus 257K in January. Unemployment rate is expected to have lowered from 5.7% to 5.6%.

What do large bank expect today?

Credit Agricole: We expect NFP at 245K, unemployment at 5.6%. Investors’ Fed rate expectations will continue to be supported to the benefit of the USD. Negative surprises in NFP can’t be excluded. However, downbeat figures won’t have any sustainable effect unless wage developments weaken considerably. SELL any larger than 25 pip EUR/USD rally following any negative NFP surprise with a stop of at least 100 pips. We target 1.0600 in a few weeks.

Standard Bank: The data could fall a bit short of expectations. The importance of NFP figures seems to be diminishing relative to wage numbers, so a reading above consensus here would send USD up.

Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.6%, while the average hourly earnings will rise by 0.2%.

RBS: NFP will rise by 260K. The unemployment rate will decline to 5.6%. A very strong NFP could push EUR/USD definitively below 1.10.

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US Dollar: what to expect on the new week?
6 March 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected, on the past week the US currency returned to growth. The US dollar index hit new 11-year highs. Even the dollar/Swiss franc pair pushed to the levels, unseen since Jan. 15. The US currency remains supported by the Fed’s rate hike expectations.

Visual illustration prepared by Wall Street Journal: more than 50% of economists surveyed expect a rate hike in Q2 2015, while another 40% - in Q3 2015.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...0exp%20eng.png

Economic calendar for the new week is not so busy, but we expect the bullish trend in USD to persist. Watch the US retail sales data on Thursday. On Friday the market will focus on the Producer price index. In January the index fell at a fastest pace in 5 years (-0.8%). New negative reading would be the only threat for the current sustainable USD rally.

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EUR/USD: outlook remains negative

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD has fallen to the new minimums. However, as the net short positions on the euro remain extremely big, the ever-present risk of correction up remains high.

The new week in the euro area will be light on the economic data. On March 9 the Eurogroup meeting will take place. Greece will be on the agenda. A couple of weeks ago the euro zone finance ministers approved a 4-month extension of the Greek bailout program and the initial list of reform which the nation has to conduct in return. On Monday Greece is expected to present the details of these reforms. According to the head of the Eurogroup, Athens can get 7.2 billion euro remaining in its bailout as early as this month if the Greek government starts adopting necessary reforms. Greece is now in a very difficult position as it has to make large debt repayments in March and has practically no cash. If it looks like the nation will get money rather sooner than later, the impact on the euro will be bullish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuDTUS8avE8

Also on Monday the ECB will start its large-scale quantitative easing program, so divergence in monetary policy between the US and the euro area will remain one of the main themes. The ECB will purchase bonds with negative yields, and this should dispel concerns that it won’t be able to achieve its balance sheet target.

At the same time, while the ECB lowered 2015 inflation forecast justifying QE, its president Mario Draghi predicted improvements in the euro area’s economy and said that the central bank’s actions do bring positive results. This should make the market feel a bit better about the euro.

Although EUR/USD is much oversold, it went below 1.1210 (61.8% Fibo of the advance in 2000-2008). Resistance in the 1.1260/70 area is expected to be strong. Support is at 1.08 and 1.05.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 9

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.44, STOP LOSS 119.55 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 0.9645 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7627, STOP LOSS 0.7805 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 130.16, STOP LOSS 132.05 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7290 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0888, TAKE PROFIT 1.0763/49

GBP/USD: SELL AT 1.5145, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952, STOP LOSS 1.5225 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3740, TAKE PROFIT 1.3505, STOP LOSS 1.3840

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7420, TAKE PROFIT 0.7215, STOP LOSS 0.7480

GBP/JPY: SELL on rallies

__________________________________________________ ___________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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EUR/USD: trade idea
9 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov


EUR/USD reached sell target 1.1000
Next sell target - 1.0800

EUR/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking below the support level 1.1000, which was set in our previous report as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on EUR/USD – leading to the sharp sell-off helping the price approach the next major support level 1.0800 (as you can see from the daily EUR/USD chart below).

Considering the strength of the support zone near 1.0800 and given that the daily RSI and the daily Stochastic indicators have both reached the oversold area, EUR/USD can be expected to correct up in the nearest time toward the former support level 1.1000. EUR/USD is likely to reverse down from 1.1000 toward the next sell target 1.0800.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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USD/JPY: buy target
9 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reached buy target 120.500

• Next buy target - 121.70

USD/JPY last weekly broke above the resistance level 120.500 (which stopped previous minor impulse 1) that was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the 5th intermediate impulse (5) from the middle of December (as you can see from the daily USD/JPY chart below). This minor impulse started when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the support level 118.50.

Having recently closed above the resistance level 120.50, USD/JPY can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 121.70 (previous major resistance level which stopped the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) last December). Buys top-loss can be placed below 120.50.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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USD/CAD: waiting for a rate cut
9 March 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

Canada’s export-oriented economy suffered from the sharp fall in crude oil prices seen in 2014. Annualized Q4 economic growth was above the forecast (+2.4% versus 2% expected), but we have strong doubts that growth will remain so strong in Q1: the effect from lower oil prices hasn’t filtered through the economy yet. GDP growth was driven mostly by inventories. It means that production goes on, but demand for the goods is down. The country posted its largest trade deficit since 2012 in January.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...%20balance.png

Source: TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES

In this environment we expect another Bank of Canada rate cut to follow in the coming months. Regulator left interest rates unchanged in March at 0.75% after cutting by 0.25% in February. Clearly, the BOC monetary policy will depend on the energy markets. According to the most recent Goldman Sachs forecast, crude prices will remain under pressure in spring on the back increased supply. Dovish BOC expectations contrast with the hawkish Federal Reserve: the US central bank is likely to deliver a rate hike in summer 2015.

From the technical viewpoint, USD/CAD faced resistance at 1.2626 – this is the upper border of the medium-term bullish triangle. The current pullback is a good time to buy the pair on dips around 1.2550, targeting 1.2800 and 1.3000.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana.../usd%20cad.png
Chart. Daily USD/CAD

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Mar. 10

On Monday EUR/USD has retraced 38.2% of Friday’s decline, but met resistance around 1.0900. There’s bullish divergence on the daily chart and the euro looks oversold. However, the market’s sentiment about the euro is still negative, so corrections up will likely be shallow. Resistance is at 1.0925, 1.0950 and 1.1000 and the euro is to be sold on rallies. Support lies at 1.0800, 1.0760 (Sept. 2003 low) and 1.0558 (April 2003 low).

Markets are looking forwards to the news from Greece which so far isn’t inspiring. Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the nation could be forced into fresh elections or a referendum if euro zone finance ministers reject its plans to ease austerity. The head of European Commission Juncker and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras will meet on Friday.

USD/JPY is now using previous resistance at 120.50 as support. Further support is at 119.80. Japanese economic growth was revised to the downside. On the upside the next target is at 121.85. Buying on the dips is the strategy.

AUD/USD hovers around its 6-year lows of 0.7720, testing the 200-month MA to the downside. The pair awaits another bearish impulse to speed the downside up. Next support will be seen at 0.7630/00. Tonight watch the NAB Business Confidence figures in Australia. What’s more, China will publish inflation figures tonight – producer prices will likely stay in their deep zero.

GBP/USD has recovered some ground on Monday, but holds below the 1.5100 mark following the sharp selloff on Friday. Technical picture turned clearly bearish as the pair closed the past week below 1.5200. Support lies at 1.5030/00 and 1.4950. On Tuesday the BOE Governor Carney will hold a speech at 14:35 GMT in London.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 10

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.23 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0042, STOP LOSS 0.9719 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7761 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2499 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 134.18, TAKE PROFIT 130.16, STOP LOSS 132.05 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7272, TAKE PROFIT 0.7114, STOP LOSS 0.7290

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5185, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952, STOP LOSS 1.5225 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3740, TAKE PROFIT 1.3505, STOP LOSS 1.3840

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.55, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.85

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7215, STOP LOSS 0.7435

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD
10 March 2015

Credit Suisse: SELL LIMIT from 1.0985, TAKE PROFIT 1.0620, STOP LOSS 1.1115 (entered on March 9)

BofA Merrill holds SHORT from 1.1290, TAKE PROFIT 1.0765, STOP LOSS 1.1275 (entered on February 24)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.1370, TAKE PROFIT 1.0700, STOP LOSS 1.1000 (entered on February 12)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on February 6)

Citi holds SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (entered on February 3)

Crédit Agricole holds SHORT from 1.1340, TAKE PROFIT 1.0600, STOP LOSS 1.1680 (entered on January 28)

JP Morgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on January 26)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0500, STOP LOSS 1.1540 (entered on January 20)

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 11

By Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the greenback keeps on rising after the strong US labor market data released on Friday. However, we have to note that the US dollar longs contacted on a week that ended on March 3. Large players have some doubts about the USD rally sustainability. Watch the retail sales figures on Thursday – we could see growth after two months in the negative territory.

EUR/USD is trading at the 2003 lows (1.0720 as we write). The ECB’s QE program has finally been launched yesterday. The ECB Governor Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak tomorrow in Frankfurt.

GBP/USD attempted to recover after a sharp selloff on Friday, but faced resistance at 1.5130. Next levels to watch below the price are 1.5030, 1.5000 and 1.4950. Watch the UK manufacturing data (forecast: + 0.2%, prior: +0.1%) and the NIESR GDP estimate on Wednesday. EUR/GBP fell to its lowest level since December 2007.

USD/JPY pushed to a new high of 122 yen on Tuesday – this is the lowest level since summer 2007. Japan is scheduled to release core machinery orders tonight (forecast – downbeat). Commodity currencies are also doomed for a decline. Aussie dollar holds around the 5-year lows below the 0.7700 mark, while NZD/USD dipped below 0.7250. Watch industrial production data in Chana tomorrow – growth is expected to have slowed from 7.9% to 7.7%. RBNZ will announce its monetary policy decision tonight – some economists forecast a rate cut.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 11

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59 (revised)

GBP/USD: SHORT at 1.5100, TAKE PROFIT 1.4952; STOP LOSS 1.5205

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0042, STOP LOSS 0.9719

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7761

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2800, STOP LOSS 1.2560 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.00, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 182.00

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look for the opportunities to SELL

EUR/JPY: Look for the opportunities to SELL in the 130.60/70 area

EUR/GBP: SELL on the rallies

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3705, TAKE PROFIT 1.3425, STOP LOSS 1.3840

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7320, TAKE PROFIT 0.7120, STOP LOSS 0.7365 (revised)

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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AUD/USD: trade idea
11 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

- AUD/USD reached sell target 0.7640
- Next sell target - 0.7500

AUD/USD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking the support level 0.7640, which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level was preceded by the breakout of the daily up channel from the start of February (which has enclosed the preceding intermediate ABC correction (4)). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (5) from last month.

AUD/USD is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (5) to the next sell target 0.7500 (intersecting with the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last month). Sell stop-loss can be placed one daily ATR above the broken price level 0.7640.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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EUR/CAD: sell targets
11 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/CAD reached sell targets 1.3900 and 1.3800

• Next sell targets - 1.3500 and 1.3400

EUR/CAD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the breakout of the support zone located between the support levels 1.3900 and 1.3800 (both of these levels were set as the sell targets in our previous report for this currency pair). The breakout of this support zone accelerated the downward momentum – helping the price break the support trendline of the daily down channel from March of 2014 – which further accelerated the downward movement (as you can see below).

EUR/CAD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse 3 (which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from the end of January) toward the next sell targets – 1.3500 and 1.3400 (target price for the termination of impulse wave 3).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Forex trading plan for March 12

EUR/USD is hurt by the falling bond yields in the euro area because of the ECB’s QE. The 1.0560 area may offer some support. Corrections will face resistance at 1.0650. Further support is at 1.0500. Data from the US due on Thursday (retails sales, unemployment claims) is expected to improve. This could increase pressure on the euro.

USD/JPY has formed a doji with a long upper shadow on Tuesday unable to close above the psychological level of 122.00 which is now acting as resistance ahead of 124.00. Negative risk sentiment is holding the bulls. Decline below 120.80 will make the pair fall to 120.00 and probably to 119.40.

GBP/USD is affected by the news about the decline in the UK manufacturing & industrial production. Pound is vulnerable for decline to long-term support in the 1.4815 area. The level of 1.5030 will now form resistance. Watch for comments from the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney: in his recent speeches he tended to reassure the markets.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7500 – the bears would like to touch this level. Resistance is in the 0.7720/00 area. Watch Australian labor market data release during the Asian session.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0660, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0668 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0685, TAKE PROFIT 1.0900, STOP LOSS 1.0605

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7828, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7718

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5020, TAKE PROFIT 1.4814, STOP LOSS 1.5100

EUR/JPY: SELL

EUR/GBP: SELL

GBP/JPY: SELL

EUR/CAD: SELL on rallies

__________________________________________________ ___________
*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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EUR/AUD: trade idea
12 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

- EUR/AUD reached sell targets 1.4200 and 1.4000
- Next sell target - 1.3700

EUR/AUD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking below two support levels 1.4200 and 1.4000 (low of previous A-wave) - both of which were set in our earlier report as the sell targets for this currency pair. Each of these breakouts added to the bearish pressure on this pair – accelerating the downward momentum and helping the price approach the next major support level 1.3800 – near which the pair is trading at the current moment. This support level earlier reversed the sharp downward impulse in September of 2014 (as you can see below).

If EUR/AUD breaks the support level 1.3800, the price can be expected to fall further to the next sell target 1.3700 (target price for the completion of the intermediate ABC wave (2) from the middle of last December).
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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EUR/NZD: next sell target
12 March 2015

By Dima Chernovolov

• EUR/NZD broke multiple support levels

• Next sell target - 1.4200

EUR/NZD has been under strong bearish pressure recently after the pair reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.4800 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the end of February. The subsequent sharp downward price thrust broke through multiple support levels – 1.4600, 1.4510 (which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this pair), the support trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year, the round support level 1.4500 – and more recently it broke the support level 1.4400.

EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse 3 toward the next sell target 1.4200. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.4400.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...1%20day%29.png

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Forex trading plan for March 13

US dollar corrected down on Thursday versus the major currencies as America released weaker than expected retail sales figures (-0.6% vs. the forecast of +0.3%). Another month of contraction in the retail sales could raise serious doubts regarding the positive effect of weak energy prices. The unemployment claims, however, were better – lower – than expected. On Friday America will release producer prices and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD tested levels below 1.0500, but then corrected up to 1.0680. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. However, the general market’s sentiment about the euro remains bearish. Support is at 1.0560 and 1.0500.

GBP/USD recovered almost to 1.5030, but met resistance there. The risks are to the downside. Support is at 1.4915 and 1.4813. Bank of England's Governor Mark Carney sounded a bit dovish saying that low global CPI and strong pound may weigh on UK prices for some time.

USD/JPY may have formed a temporary top and can slide to the 120.00/119.70 area. Resistance is at 121.65 and 122.00. AUD/USD will face resistance at 0.7800 and looks set to print 0.7500.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjxfSjq4HH4

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US Dollar awaits the next week’s Fed

By Kira Iukhtenko

The past week has become very successful for the US currency with the US dollar index breaking above 100 points for the first time since 2003. Demand for the greenback was pushed up by the increased expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in mid-2015.

On the new week the US economic calendar is full of important releases, but the most important event is the Fed’s policy meeting on March 17-18. There is a high chance that the Fed excludes its pledge to stay “patient” in monetary policy from its forward guidance. If it happens, FOMC will theoretically open the way for a rate hike in June. The US dollar will stay in demand ahead of the meeting.

The US labor market data supports the hawkish expectations, but price growth remains weak. US consumer prices have never reached the Fed’s target of 2% over the past 3 years, while in 2015 monthly CPI turned negative. We’ll see how the Fed appraises the current economic conditions: it will also release renewed projections on Wednesday.

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EUR/USD: bearish sentiment prevails

By Elizaveta Belugina

The euro area is now frequently compared with Japan. Last year the Bank of Japan has launched an enormous monetary stimulus program in order to encourage inflation. This made investors buy Japanese shares and sell the yen.

The same can be now seen in Europe. The ECB has started its more than 1-trillion-euro QE on March 9. Bond yields in many countries of the euro area fell close to the record lows. As a result, European investors are going elsewhere for higher returns. Low interest rates made the region’s stock market surge. However, foreign investors sell the euro in order to hedge their European assets. The supply of the single currency is increasing because of the QE, while the demand for it remains week. As a result, it hit 12-year lows against the greenback. Analysts revised down their forecasts for EUR/USD targeting parity and lower.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeVV3USNe_4

The pair will likely remain under pressure. 3 negative factors are affecting the euro: low oil prices, the ECB’s QE and the expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike this summer. Although the currency is oversold and there’s an ever-present risk of a short covering rally, the key is now the market’s sentiment, and that is quite bearish.

EUR/USD made it down from above 1.0800 to 1.0500. Correction towards 1.0700 on Thursday allowed traders to take profit. If support at 1.0500 fails, the euro will fall to 1.0200. In the short-term resistance will be limited by 1.0830 and 1.1090. Our recommendation is still to sell on correction up or on the break of the support.

Given the fast speed of decline and the upcoming Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, we’ll probably see some consolidation in EUR/USD, especially in the first half of the week. Pay attention to the release of the euro area’s and German economic sentiment figures on Tuesday and the ECB’s new tranche of TLTRO for the euro area’s banks on Thursday.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 16

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0521, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.0593

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7790, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7865

EUR/JPY: Look to SELL

EUR/CHF: SELL AT 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

GBP/JPY: SELL AT 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

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Large banks: what to expect from the Fed?
16 March 2015

FOMC policy announcement, economic projections and statement will be released at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, March 18. Press conference from Janet Yellen will follow at 18:30 GMT.

What do analysts at large banks expect from the meeting?

CIBC: The Fed will likely drop its pledge to stay patient. However, the sentence will likely be replaced by an emphasis on being 'data dependent'. Softness in recent growth indicators will be mentioned. What’s more, the Fed will cite reasons to limit pace of hikes - rising USD and yields falling overseas. Market reaction to the meeting will be muted.

Deutsche Bank: FOMC is expected to change its forward guidance language so as to allow the Committee the flexibility to raise interest rates sometime around the middle of this year (possibly in June). Fed’s economic projections should indicate a more confident outlook for the labor market, highlight disinflationary risks. During the press conference Yellen will likely elaborate on the FOMC's rationale for beginning the process of policy normalization.

Barclays: The Fed is expected to drop "patience" from its statement at the March meeting. However, the statement will likely introduce downside risk to inflation from a stronger USD. As a result, markets will believe that June rate hikes are off the table and will see the USD rally paused.

Goldman Sachs: The normalization of US monetary policy is a powerful force for EUR/USD lower looking ahead.

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Forex trading plan for Mar .17

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjlohOv43XI

US dollar is trading under slight bearish pressure following the last week’s rally. Markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to change its forward guidance, opening the way for a rate hike in June. At the same time they will likely sound concerned by the deflationary threat hovering above the economy. We expect the US dollar to remain supported at least before the meeting.

EUR/USD recovered towards 1.0600 on Monday. On Tuesday pay attention to the ZEW economic sentiment indices in Germany and euro zone – forecasts are upbeat. There is a high chance of a bullish correction in EUR/USD, resistance is seen at 1.0650 and 1.0700.

GBP/USD rebounded to 1.4800 after hitting 1.4700 on Friday. Wednesday will likely be a volatile day for the cable: UK labor data, annual budget and meeting minutes in the European session and the Fed’s announcement in the US session.

USD/JPY holds below the last week’s peak of 122 yen and is forming a short-term triangle that will likely be broken to the upside this week. BOJ will hold its policy meeting tonight – no changes in policy are expected now.

Commodity currencies are also in demand: AUD/USD recovered to 0.7650, NZD/USD – to 0.7390. RBA is scheduled to release meeting minutes tonight at 00:30 GMT. We’ll see whether there are hints on a rate cut in the coming meetings or not.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 17

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2865, STOP LOSS 1.2596

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0655, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0727

EUR/JPY: SELL at 129.20, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 130.20

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7790, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7865

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

__________________________________________________ _________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Large banks: positioning on EUR/USD

Danske Bank: SELL LIMIT at 1.0655, TAKE PROFIT 1.0432, STOP LOSS 1.0727 (set on Mar. 17)

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 1.0560, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.0684 (entered on Mar. 16)

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.0650, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.0750 (entered on Mar. 12)

Citi Bank holds SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (entered on Feb. 6)

Citi Bank holds SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (entered on Feb. 3)

JPMorgan holds SHORT from 1.1250, TAKE PROFIT 1.0100, STOP LOSS 1.1700 (entered on Jan. 26)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.1578, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1000 (entered on Jan. 20)

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Forex trading plan for March 18

EUR/USD rose above 1.0600. US dollar was affected by news that American housing starts fell by 17% in February. Resistance is at 1.0700 and 1.0830. Support is at 1.0570, 1.0500 and 1.0450 ahead of 1.0300. The focus is on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and press conference at 18:30 GMT.

GBP/USD met resistance in the 1.4850 area and slid to 1.4750. The UK will release labor market data and the Bank of England’s meeting minutes at 09:30 GMT. Support is at 1.4700 and 1.4650. Resistance is at 1.4900 and 1.4950. Bears will dominate as long as the pair is below 1.4900.

USD/JPY is in 121.50/10 area. The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged in line with expectations having to impact on the pair. Dollar/yen is consolidating ahead of the Fed meeting. Narrow range is a sign that a volatile move is coming. Support is at 120.50, 120.25 and 120.00. A hawkish Fed will make USD test 122.00 and 122.90.

AUD/USD is consolidating around 0.7650. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting showed that the central bank still thinks that Aussie is too high regarding the fundamentals. As a result, traders will keep expecting that the RBA will further ease its policy. On the hourly chart we see the pair consolidating within a triangle. Support is at 0.7610 and a break below this level will bring the prices down towards 0.7500. Resistance is at 0.7680 ahead of the downtrend resistance line in the 0.7750 area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7xiX4ngaGA

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EUR/USD: consolidation under cloud
18 March 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Taking hold above 1.0500, the currency pair is slowly trying to recover. Yesterday, the prices grew to the 1.0600 mark, breaking the resistance of the four-hour Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen lines. This can be a good starting point for the bulls to grow to the Ichimoku cloud lower border, in case of consolidation at the current levels.

However, if 1.0570 does not stand under the bears pressure, we will expect the rate decline to the lows of the week beginning.

Technical levels: support – 1.0570; resistance – 1.0600, 1.0635, 1.0700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0560; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0500; TP2 — 1.0450,

2. Buy — 1.0570; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0635; TP2 — 1.0700.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...urusdh4-TN.png

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GBP/USD: bears not resting
18 March 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, the currency pair tested the four-hour Tenkan-sen line resistance early this week, recovering to the 1.4850 mark. Here they were met by a strong resistance that did not allow them to fix inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. In addition, the pressure was exerted by the fellow-line - Kijun-sen, which triggered the currency pair rate to tumble into the negative zone again, set to continue the downtrend.

At the same time, Chinkou Span hints on the pair's oversoldness. We do not rule out consolidation at the current levels and another testing of the 48th figure. If the test fails, we will very soon witness trades in the 1.4600/30 area.

Technical levels: support – 1.4700/30; resistance – 1.4780, 1.4800, 1.4850.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.4780; SL — 1.4810; TP1 — 1.4700; TP2 — 1.4630.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...bpusdh4-TN.png

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