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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 2 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0901 (revised) USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.08, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.41 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.25, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 130.26 USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9906, STOP LOSS 0.9604 (revised) EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0318, STOP LOSS 1.0492 (revised) GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 177.20, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 178.50 NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7480, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276, STOP LOSS 0.7550 Trade ideas: AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7810 GBP/USD: Possibly SELL USD/CAD: Possibly BUY EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ ________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 2 - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for April 3 By Elizaveta Belugina The markets are awaiting the long Easter weekend and the release of the US NFP on Friday. Taking into account uncertainty and low liquidity trading will be even more volatile than it usually is on NFP Fridays. Before the release (12:30 GMT) US dollar is expected to consolidate. On Wednesday American ADP employment report disappointed dollar bulls, but on Thursday the US released good unemployment claims data (lower than expected) and trade balance figures. All in all, the recent US data releases give some reasons to worry about the US economy. A reading above 200K and gain in average hourly earnings should be enough for the market to expect a rate hike in June-September. EUR/USD has found support above 1.0700 this week and returned above 1.0850 on the back of some more positive data from the euro area. Support is at 1.0800, 1.0750 and 1.0700. GBP/USD was affected by weak UK construction PMI which fell from 60.1 to 57.8. Resistance at 1.4900 still holds. Next resistance is at 1.4950. Taking into account Britain’s political uncertainty, even in case weaker NFP pound’s recovery will be limited by 1.5000. On the downside potential target will be at 1.4630. USD/JPY was rejected from above 120.00 in the first half of the week and spent Thursday below this mark. This makes the pair vulnerable to test support is 119.28, 118.85 and 118.30. Resistance is at 120.30, 120.50 and 120.80. AUD/USD is weak. Resistance at 0.7660 has become stronger with the spike to this level on Wednesday followed by a decline to the 0.7530 area. Australian trade deficit widened and 17 out of the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBA to cut the benchmark rate on Tuesday. More: Forex trading plan for April 3 - Forex Analytics |
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Key option levels 3 April 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 635m), 1.0680 (EUR 408m), 1.0800 (EUR 262m), 1.0850 (EUR 402m), 1.0950 (EUR 401m), 1.1075 (EUR 3.4bln); USD/JPY: 119.65 (USD 2bln), 120.00 (USD 1.3bln), 120.20 (USD 700m), 120.50 (USD 501m), 122.00 (USD 675m), 122.25 (USD 550m); USD/CAD: 1.2350 (USD 556m); AUD/USD: 0.7685 (AUD 372m). More: Key option levels - Forex Analytics |
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NFP: what do big banks expect? 3 April 2015 The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, American economy added 246K jobs in March after 295K in February. Here is the more detailed account of what the major banks think: - Societe Generale +272K - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch +270K - Credit Agricole +260K - UBS +260K - BNP +260K - Barclays +250K - BMO +250K - JP Morgan +250K - Credit Suisse +240K - RBS +238K - RBC +225K - TD Securities +221K - Goldman Sachs +220K - CIBC +200K - Morgan Stanley +195K Societe Generale is the most optimistic one, while Morgan Stanley – the most pessimistic. More: NFP: what do big banks expect? - Forex Analytics |
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NZD/JPY: buy targets - 91.00 and 92.00 3 April 2015 -NZD/JPY reversed from support zone -Next buy targets - 91.00 and 92.00 NZD/JPY recently corrected down sharply – after the price reached the buy target 91.00, which was set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The subsequent downward correction from 91.00 recently stopped at the support zone located between the support level 89.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of February. The upward reversal from this support zone created the powerful Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Bullish Engulfing (highlighted on the daily NZD/JPY chart below). Having just completed the minor correction (ii) - NZD/JPY can be expected to rise further inside the next minor impulse (iii) toward the next buy targets 91.00 and 92.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: NZD/JPY: buy targets - 91.00 and 92.00 - Forex Analytics |
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AUD/NZD: sell target – 1.0000 3 April 2015 • AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0300 • Next sell target – 1.0000 AUD/NZD continues to fall after recently breaking down below the support level 1.0300, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – accelerating the currently active minor impulse wave (iii) which belongs to the 3rd minor impulse 3 from the end of January (as you can see from the daily AUD/NZD chart below). The pair is currently approaching the support level 1.0100. With the daily Momentum indicator moving close to the yearly lows, AUD/NZD can be expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the parity – provided that the pair closes this week below the support level 1.0100. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: AUD/NZD: sell target ? 1.0000 - Forex Analytics |
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USD: weekly outlook 3 April 2015 US labor market figures on Friday shattered all the hopes for a strong dollar. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 126K in March (forecast: +246K). What’s more, the previous reading was revised down from +295K to +264K. Data reduces expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in June and opens the way for a USD selloff. The FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be at the central stage next week. We’ll get the details of the controversial March 18 meeting. Meanwhile, the largest US aluminum producer Alcoa will start the first-quarter earnings season, reporting on Wednesday. You should also watch the US non-manufacturing PMI on Monday. More: USD: life after the NFP - Forex Analytics |
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GBP/USD: forecast for the new week 3 April 2015 By Kira Iukhtenko Sterling spent the week trading mixed versus the greenback, forming a range of “doji” candlesticks on the daily chart. We remain clearly bearish in the medium-term as long as the cable holds below the major 1.5000 resistance. Next bearish targets are 1.4740, 1.4680 and 1.4630. Next week’s highlights will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision as well as Services PMI and manufacturing production figures. The UK central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged in on Wednesday. BOE became cautious amid low inflation and strong currency. According to the median Reuters forecast, the first rate hike will come in early 2016 and won’t exceed 25 bps. That means that the US Fed will likely be the first central bank to hike rates. British pound’s prospects are clouded by political uncertainty. The upcoming UK general election on May 7 are not a sure thing: the Conservative party and the opposition Labor party are neck-and-neck. Threat of a “hung” government is a bearish factor for GBP: if Conservatives fail to win a majority, they’ll be trying to form a coalition. More: GBP/USD: what's next? - Forex Analytics |
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GBP/AUD: buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000 6 April 2015 -GBP/AUD rises inside minor impulse 3 -Next buy targets – 1.9800 and 2.000 GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 1.9000 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair), the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from last September, 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse 1 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area completed the previous minor correction 2. The next upward impulse 3 recently broke the resistance levels 1.9200 and 1.9400. GBP/AUD is likely to rise further toward the next buy targets at 1.9800 and 2.000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken former-resistance level 1.9400. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: GBP/AUD: buy targets ? 1.9800 and 2.000 - Forex Analytics |
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CFTC: large players cut USD longs 6 April 2015 Ассоrding to the most recent CFTC report, released on Friday, large players decreased USD longs on the week ending March 31. However, these figures don't consider the greenback's selloff on the weak NFP on Friday. Net USD longs contracted by 46K contracts to 367K contracts and are now at their lowest level since December 2014. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...acts%20(1).png Despite all that, large players don't trust in euro: net EUR short positions kept on rising for a fourth week in a row and increased to 225K contracts. Short JPY positions fell for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since 2013, while AUD shorts - at their lowest level since September 2014. NZD positions turned bullish for a first time since autumn 2014. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...t-standins.png More: CFTC: large players cut USD longs - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for Apr. 7 Kira Iukhtenko, Elizaveta Belugina US dollar remains under pressure against all the major currencies following the weak NFP figures released on Friday. The March reading came out twice below the forecast at 126K, lowering expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in June. It seems that we are now standing on the edge of a stronger bearish USD correction. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Monday added to market pessimism, coming slightly below the forecast. On Tuesday, the US agenda is light, while on Wednesday our attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting minutes release. EUR/USD found support in the 1.0965 area and may test resistance at 1.1050 as traders are still digesting weak NFP released on Friday. The euro breached the uptrend resistance line last week adding strength to the bulls. Support is at 1.0950 (100-period MA at H4) and 1.0900. A break below this level will reduce powers of the buyers. Further resistance is at 1.1110/20. GBP/USD pushed above 1.4950 on Monday, trying to recover above the January lows. This is where 38.2% Fibonacci from the Feb-March descent lies. The major strong resistance for the cable is 1.5000 – a daily close above here would confirm the bullish strength. Support lies at 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Services PMI on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat). AUD/USD met resistance at 0.7700 on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 04:30 GMT. There’s a risk of a surprise rate cut. If RBA lowers key rate, Aussie will fall to 0.7500 and probably lower. Otherwise, the pair will recover to the 55-day MA at 0.7780. Our main scenario is AUD-negative. More: Forex trading plan for Apr. 7 - Forex Analytics |
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GOLD: weekly wave analysis 7 April 2015 Weekly. The market is currently developing a descending corrective wave [4] that is now close to its end. Let’s review the last part of the correction. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...B7/xauusd1.PNG Daily. After building the IV triangle, we’ve seen a decline of the pair in a bearish impulse V. When the strong descending wave [3] of V was complete, the market reversed and entered a corrective growing wave [4]. In the coming days we expect this wave to end. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...B7/xauusd2.PNG H4. Wave [4] takes a form of a simple rising zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). On the new week we expect the final part of the (C) of [4] impulse to be constructed. The decline will soon follow. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...B7/xauusd3.PNG More: GOLD: weekly wave analysis - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for Apr. 8 By Elizaveta Belugina, Kira Iukhtenko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-OGmMfsbWg Demand for the US dollar started to recover on Tuesday with the USD index rebounding to 98 points. On Wednesday, the market attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes release at 18:00 GMT. It is important to find out, which factors guided the Fed’s fund rate forecasts revision – probably, the document will clarify the real sentiment within the Committee. Any indications that the Fed might still be considering a rate increase in June would pull the investors back into the USD. EUR/USD is currency forming an ascending triangle. The euro is approaching the lower edge of the figure. Support is at 1.0800. The single currency declined despite better Spanish & Italian services PMIs. The pair slid below important MAs on H1 and H4 charts. Resistance is at 1.0876/78 and at 1.0935. On Wednesday the euro area will release retail sales data at 09:30 GMT, though data from America will be more important. GBP/USD pulled down from the 1.5000 figure, confirming that the cable bulls still lack the power. Even the strong UK Services PMI failed to render support for GBP. Next bearish targets lie at 1.4730 and 1.4630. Tomorrow we’ll watch the BOE Credit Conditions Survey. On Thursday, do not miss the BOE policy meeting itself. USD/JPY pushed back above 120 yen on Tuesday, opening the way for more upside. Next levels to watch are 120.40 and 120.80. The Bank of Japan will announce its policy meeting decision tonight – no additional easing is expected before the BOJ April 30 Inflation outlook. Renewed forecasts could justify more stimulus. Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, supporting the Aussie for a while. However, AUD/USD still looks quite bearish for us. Break below 0.7520 would be a perfect selling signal. More: Forex trading plan for Apr. 8 - Forex Analytics |
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US dollar weaked versus other majors 8 April 2015 US dollar eased down versus its main counterparts on Wednesday. However, the greenback is still generally back at the levels where it traded before American weak Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday which reduced the odds of an earlier Federal Reserve’s rate hike. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0800. GBP/USD recovered from 1.4800 to 1.4860. USD/JPY once again stepped into resistance on approach to 120.50 and slid to 119.70. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Still, as the central bank has failed to reach its 2% inflation target, there are still expectations of further monetary easing in Japan. According to nation’s finance ministry, Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign stocks and bonds for the third straight month in March. AUD/USD rose once again approaching resistance at 0.7700. The main event of the day is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT. More: US dollar weaked versus other majors - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 8 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0874, TAKE PROFIT 1.1115, STOP LOSS 1.0795 USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.38 GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4875, STOP LOSS 1.4805 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7715 USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2597, TAKE PROFIT 1.2353, STOP LOSS 1.2580 (revised) EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 130.30, TAKE PROFIT 132.13, STOP LOSS 129.40 GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 178.45, TAKE PROFIT 180.15, STOP LOSS 177.60 NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7485, TAKE PROFIT 0.7630, STOP LOSS 0.7440 Trade signals: USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9725, TAKE PROFIT 0.9501, STOP LOSS 0.9767 EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3645, TAKE PROFIT 1.3390, STOP LOSS 1.3770 EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ ____________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 8 - Forex Analytics |
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AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7600 9 April 2015 -AUD/CHF rises inside minor C-wave -Next buy target - 0.7600 AUD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the the support level 0.7200 (which was set as the sell target in our previous report for this currency pair), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp corrective A-wave from January (belonging to the intermediate ABC correction (2)). The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous B-wave with the strong Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Double-Doji Morning Star (highlighted below). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7600 - Forex Analytics |
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EUR/NZD: sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000 9 April 2015 -EUR/NZD falls inside minor impulse 3 -Next sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000 EUR/NZD recently reversed down strongly from the resistance level 1.4500 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the middle of last month, as you can see from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The resistance zone near 1.4500 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from February. The downward reversal from 1.4500 completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 – starting the active minor impulse 3, which then broke the daily Triangle from March. EUR/NZD is expected to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets - 1.4120 (low of the earlier impulse wave 1) and 1.4000. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: EUR/NZD: sell targets - 1.4120 and 1.4000 - Forex Analytics |
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EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.3300 10 April 2015 -EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.3400 -Next sell target - 1.3300 EUR/CAD today reached the support level 1.3400, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down sharply – after the pair failed to break above the strong resistance zone lying between the former support trendline of the daily down channel from last August (acting as resistance now after it was broken in March), the resistance level 1.3800 and the upper daily Bollinger Band. This resistance zone has been reversing this currency pair from the middle of March. If EUR/CAD breaks the support level 1.3400, the pair can be expected to fall further toward the next sell target at 1.3300 (intersecting with the support trendline of the weekly down channel from 2014). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.3300 - Forex Analytics |
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USD/SGD: buy target - 1.3760 10 April 2015 -USD/SGD completed intermediate ABC correction (2) -Next buy target - 1.3760 USD/SGD recently reversed up sharply from the strong combined support zone lying between the support level 1.3500 (which also previously reversed the minor correction 4 in February), 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) and the lower daily Bollinger Band – as you can see from the daily USD/SGD chart below. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – thereby completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (2). USD/SGD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.3630. If the pair breaks this resistance level – it can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 1.3760 (top of earlier wave B). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: USD/SGD: buy target - 1.3760 - Forex Analytics |
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Key option levels 13 April 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.0550 (EUR 308m), 1.0630 (EUR 230m), 1.0670/75 (EUR 825m), 1.0750 (EUR 1.1bln); USD/JPY: 121.00 (USD 482m); AUD/USD: 0.7600 (AUD 1.7bln); NZD/USD: 0.7400 (NZD 337m) 0.7750 (NZD 552m). More: Key option levels - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for April 13 Open positions:* USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.38 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0279, STOP LOSS 1.0475 Trade signals: EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0648, TAKE PROFIT 1.0457, STOP LOSS 1.0692 GBP/USD: SELL at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4566, STOP LOSS 1.4745 USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2475, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2350 EUR/JPY: SELL at 128.16, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 128.82 EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7280, TAKE PROFIT 0.7154, STOP LOSS 0.7330 USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9745, TAKE PROFIT 0.9882, STOP LOSS 0.9669 EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570 GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65 AUD/USD: Possibly SELL NZD/USD: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ ________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for April 13 - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for April 14 By Kira Iukhtenko Demand on the US dollar keeps on rising on Monday with the DXY index approaching the 100 points figure. Poor China’s trade figures pulled the investors back from the commodity currencies into the safe USD – even despite the remaining uncertainty about the Fed’s rate hike terms. On Tuesday the market will focus on the retail sales data and the producer price index (12:30 GMT). Upbeat forecasts create room for a broader USD strength: all the indicators promise to have snapped out of the red zone in March. EUR/USD remains under pressure for a 6th consecutive day in a row. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Tuesday is light, while on Wednesday we’ll watch the ECB meeting and press-conference. No changes in policy are expected, but it is curious to know how Mr. Draghi appraises the current QE effect. Greek question will remain unanswered at least until April 24. Next bearish target for EUR/USD lies at 1.0460, while the upside will likely stay limited by the 1.0700 mark in the current fundamental environment. GBP/USD hit a fresh 5-year low of 1.4565 on Monday, testing the waters below the March minimums (1.4630). The market will be watching the UK inflation data tomorrow: according to the consensus, CPI stayed flat in March, supporting the deflationary concerns. We review the cable’s prospects as bearish with the May 7 election risk being a kettle bell. Daily close below 1.4630 would pave the ground to 1.4220 in the coming weeks. Commodity currencies are expected to stay under pressure ahead of the China GDP release on Wednesday. According to forecasts, growth slowed from 7.3% to 7.0% in Q1. AUD/USD is trading on a brink of a precipice, tickling the 0.7550 support on Monday. Get ready to sell Aussie on a daily close below this level. More: Forex trading plan for April 14 - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for April 14 Open positions:* EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475 USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.95, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.60 GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4680, TAKE PROFIT 1.4415, STOP LOSS 1.4745 Trade ideas: EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3460, TAKE PROFIT 1.3190, STOP LOSS 1.3570 GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65 NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560 AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688 USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2575, TAKE PROFIT 1.2784, STOP LOSS 1.2490 EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.0620/37 USD/CHF: BUY lower at 0.9710/00 EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ __________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for April 14 - Forex Analytics |
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EUR/USD: what to expect from the ECB? 14 April 2015 By Elizaveta Belugina On Wednesday don’t miss the European Central Bank’s meeting (11:45 GMT) & Mario Draghi’s press conference (12:30 GMT). The ECB is expected to keep its policy unchanged: low rates + buying 60 billion euro of government bonds a month. The market’s attention will focus on what Mario Draghi will say. As the recent economic data from the euro area showed improvement, Draghi is expected to observe that the quantitative easing program is already bringing positive results. At the same time, it’s clearly too early for him to sound too optimistic and give any comments about reducing the size of QE. Data released recently showed that the euro area’s Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in February after declining by 1.1% in January. The region’s manufacturing PMI also rose in March. This Friday don’t miss Europe’s final inflation figures for March. Last week ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said that if inflation expectations rise faster than expected towards the ECB’s target of below-but-close-to 2%, the QE program could be stopped earlier than planned, which is September 2016. Draghi will probably try to smooth Mersch’s comments and press the point that tapering QE is for now out of question. This may add pressure on the euro. More: EUR/USD: what to expect from the ECB? - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for April 15 The strength of the US dollar was undermined by lower-than-expected retail sales and producer prices data. However, the weakness in American currency looks temporary and represents an opportunity for short-term longs. EUR/USD is consolidating below 1.0600. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. As it’s too early for the regulator to give hints on QE tapering, the euro may find itself under pressure. We think of selling its attempts to recover targeting 1.0460 with stop loss at 1.0705. GBP/USD is trading in the 1.4700 area after there was buying interest in the 1.4600 area. Inflation data came out weak, and this is a bearish factor for the pound. Taking into account uncertainty caused by approaching election, we’ll be selling British currency. On the downside the short-term target is at 1.4500. Main resistance is at 1.4850. USD/JPY has so far been unable to settle above 120.50/80. However, support at 119.50 and 119.20/00 as well as at 118.70 looks pretty good as well. The pair slipped down this week as Shinzo Abe’s economic advised said that the exchange rate should be closer to 105 yen per dollar. All in all, we may see the test of support before the pair makes another go up. AUD/USD is indecisive ahead of the release of China’s Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down from 7.3% to 7.0%. The target at 0.7500 is getting closer and closer. Resistance is at 0.7635 and 0.7738. More: Forex trading plan for April 15 - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 15 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0788, STOP LOSS 1.0555 USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.20 USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2670 USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9560, STOP LOSS 0.9802 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7638, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7688 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0475 (revised) NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7500, TAKE PROFIT 0.7311, STOP LOSS 0.7560 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95 Trade ideas: GBP/JPY: SELL at 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65 GBP/USD: Possibly BUY EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ ____________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 15 - Forex Analytics |
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ECB press-conference: key points 15 April 2015 -ECB left monetary policy unchanged at 0.05% in April; -QE proceeding smoothly (60B euros per month) and proves to be effective; purchases intended to run until Sept. 2016; -ECB stimulus needs to be fully implemented to work; -Draghi sounds rather optimistic on the economy; -Financial market conditions improved; -Improved borrowing conditions lift borrowing activity of firms and households; -Euro zone's exports are becoming more competitive due to the weak euro; -Lower oil supports the domestic demand; -Economic recovery to broaden and strengthen; -Inflation is expected to pick up later in year; -ECB won't expand QE in case if inflations unexpectedly dips. All the pullbacks will be seen as temporaly. More: ECB press-conference: key points - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 16 Open positions:* EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0401 (revised) USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78 (revised) USD/CHF: Hold SHORT from 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9540, STOP LOSS 0.9745 (revised) USD/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.2555, TAKE PROFIT 1.2115, STOP LOSS 1.2440 (revised) EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 127.45, TAKE PROFIT 125.62, STOP LOSS 127.95 GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT from 176.70, TAKE PROFIT 174.70, STOP LOSS 177.65 Trade ideas: AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7663 NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7698, STOP LOSS 0.7483 GBP/USD: Possibly BUY EUR/USD: Possibly SELL EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL __________________________________________________ __________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 16 - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
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Forex trading plan for April 17 By Kira Iukhenko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k3XQ0cfs8M US dollar index keeps on falling for a third day in a row. US economic data keeps on disappointing the market: on Thursday we’ve seen weak housing market figures. On Friday the market will focus on March CPI (April: +0.2%). EUR/USD recovered to 1.0770, regaining almost 50% Fibonacci retracement from the early-April downtrend. Growth remains limited by the 1.1050 mark: Greek default fears keep on weighing the sentiment. Greece will have to pay more than 1 billion euros to IMF in early-May. We will see, is the euro strong enough to close above 1.0700 today. Watch the final euro zone’s CPI on Friday (no revision expected). Mario Draghi will speak to IMF on Saturday. GBP/USD pushed to 1.4940, but stays below the major resistance at 1.5000. We’ll watch the UK labor data tomorrow. Jobless rate is expected to have lowered to 5.6%. Political risk for the pound will increase closer to May 7 election, so be ready to sell the cable higher. AUD/USD jumped to 0.7800. Aside from the weak USD, Aussie was supported by upbeat Australia’s labor market data. Jobless rate declined to 6.1%, while employment increased above forecast. However, note that AUD/USD is forming trend continuation pattern these days. Watch the 0.7915/30 resistance area. USD/CAD – “la vedette” of the past few days. The pair plummeted to 1.2250 as the BOC promised not to cut rates. Watch a bunch of Canadian data on Friday (13:30 GMT). Forecasts are mostly upbeat. Yesterday’s drop below the 1.2350mark was a strong bearish signal for the market. Next support – 1.2180 (bottom of the daily Cloud). USD/JPY consolidates around the 119.00 mark. USD bears are much less aggressive here. More: Forex trading plan for April 17 - Forex Analytics |
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EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.3800 17 April 2015 -EUR/NZD reached sell targets 1.4120 and 1.4000 -Next sell target - 1.3800 EUR/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions – reaching the support levels 1.4120 and 1.4000 – both of which were set as the sell targets in our recent forecast for this instrument. The price earlier corrected up to the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of April. The price reversed down from this resistance zone with the strong Japanese candlestick reversal pattern – Evening Star (highlighted below). If EUR/NZD breaks the support level 1.4000, the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.3800. Strong resistance remains at 1.4200. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More:EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.3800 - Forex Analytics |
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GBP/JPY: buy target - 180.00 17 April 2015 -GBP/JPY reversed from support level 176.00 -Next buy target - 180.00 GBP/JPY recently reversed sharply from the strong support level 176.00. This support level also previously reversed the price 3 times in January and February, as you can see below. The support zone near 176.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate upward impulse wave (1) from October. The upward reversal from 176.00 completed the previous medium-term ABC correction (2) from December. GBP/JPY is likely to rise in the active intermediate impulse (3) toward the next buy target 180.00. Buy stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR below the support level 176.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png More: GBP/JPY: buy target - 180.00 - Forex Analytics |
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Is the US dollar rally over? 17 April 2015 By Kira Iukhenko US dollar was hurt by a range of negative news on the past week. As a result, possibility of the Fed’s rate hike in June has once again come under question. According to the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, 65% of surveyed economists expect the first hike to come in September. Such projections limit the bullish USD prospects in the coming weeks. The most important question today is whether the first quarter economic slowdown is seasonal or will become a trend. We need to see the April data to get the answer. On the new week the US economic calendar is rather light. On Monday watch the existing home sales, on Thursday - April manufacturing PMI and on Friday – core durable goods orders. More: Is the US dollar rally over? - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 20 Open positions:* USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.78 USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9749, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9585 AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7695 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 129.45 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0385 Trade signals: EUR/USD: BUY at 1.0740, TAKE PROFIT 1.0955, STOP LOSS 1.0680 GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850 USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370 NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575 EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY __________________________________________________ _____________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 20 - Forex Analytics |
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CFTC: speculators cut USD longs 20 April 2015 By Kira Iukhenko According to the most recent СFTC report, released on April 17, investors keep on lowering long USD positions. Cost of net USD longs fell by 0.6 bln to $39.7 bln. Dollar longs are contracting for a third week in a row and are now seen at their lowest level since March 17. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...values-usd.png The greenback is retracing lower versus all the major currencies. Even the EUR shorts corrected lower a little bit. Net speculative positions for CHF, NZD and MXN turned bullish. By the way, peso was one of the strongest drivers for the greenback last week. GBP, JPY and CAD positions remained almost unchanged. The next report will likely reflect loonie’s upside in the second part of the past week. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...standings1.png More: CFTC: speculators cut USD longs - Forex Analytics |
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Forex trading plan for April 21 US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday. EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic. GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected. USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70. AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT. More: Forex trading plan for April 21 - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
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Key option levels 21 April 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.0730 (EUR 338m), 1.0800/10 (922m), 1.0850 (462m); GBP/USD: 1.4830-35 (GBP 350m); USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 504m), 118.50 (200m), 118.70 (200m), 121.00 (551m); USD/CAD: 1.2200 (USD 295m), 1.2250 (657m), 1.2300 (350m); AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 261m), 0.7750 (290m), 0.7800/10 (280m), 0.7855/60 (280m); NZD/USD: 0.7600 (NZD 441m), 0.7645 (389m), 0.7800 (813m); EUR/GBP: 0.7225 (EUR 221m); EUR/JPY: 129.00 (EUR 694m); AUD/JPY: 92.85/90/93.00 (AUD 225m). More: Key option levels - Forex Analytics |
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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 21 Open positions:* USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479 USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.65 GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850 NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 128.85 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0331 Trade signals: USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370 AUD/USD: Possibly SELL EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY __________________________________________________ _____________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 21 - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
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Forex trading plan for April 22 By Kira Iukhtenko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_9Fcgvsbks US Dollar The US currency is struggling to recover following the last week’s selloff with the USD index reaching 98.70 on Tuesday. The US corporate profits are coming out slightly better than expected – in comparison to reduced forecasts. This factor could render some support to the US financial markets in the near term. You should also watch the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday. EUR/USD ZEW economic activity indices came out mixed on Tuesday with the German figures missing expectations (53.3 vs. 55.6 expected). On the contrary, euro area index surprised to the upside (64.8 vs. 63.7 expected). Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light tomorrow, while on Thursday the market will focus on a block of PMI indices. Greek problem will remain on the table this week, pressuring the euro. Volatility could jump with every new headline, so watch the news flow. EUR/USD has already given up 50% of the last week’s gains, falling below 1.0700. Continued USD recovery could put more pressure on the pair. Targets lie at 1.0660 (recent low) and 1.0620 (trend support). GBP/USD Cable follows the market trend, descending from the last week’s peak of 1.5050 (55-day MA). We expect the pair to reach 1.4810/00 area in the coming sessions. On Wednesday, the BOE is scheduled to release its meeting minutes. However, we doubt that many Committee members support a rate hike in the current environment. AUD/USD Watch Australia CPI on Wednesday – consumer prices are expected to have added only 0.1% in Q1 compared to 0.2% in Q4. We expect AUD/USD to stay under pressure: low inflation supports policy-easing expectations on a May 5 meeting. Technical support is seen in the 0.7700/0.7680 area these days. A break lower would open the way back to 0.7600 and 0.7550. USD/JPY The pair was in demand on Tuesday, testing the 55-day MA (119.60) to the upside. Watch the 120.50 resistance line that connects the March and April highs. Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance – deficit is expected to tighten. More: Forex trading plan for April 22 - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
MARKET NEWS
Key option levels 22 April 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 375m), 1.0700 (672m), 1.0740 (288m), 1.0800 (1bln); USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 525m), 121.00 (1bln); USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 295m); USD/CAD: 1.2285 (USD 200m), 1.2375/80 (700m); AUD/USD: 0.7655/60 (AUD 225m), 0.7800 (687m); NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 1bln), 0.7800 (686m). More: Key option levels - Forex Analytics |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 22 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659 USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 118.95 GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850 USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479 USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0331 NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575 Trade ideas: EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.15, TAKE PROFIT 129.75, STOP LOSS 127.35 EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.7093, STOP LOSS 0.7250 EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375 GBP/JPY: BUY at 178.35, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 177.45 AUD/USD: Possibly BUY __________________________________________________ _____________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 22 - Forex Analytics |
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