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Danske Bank: trade signals for March 18

Open positions*:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 118.90, TAKE PROFIT 122.62, STOP LOSS 120.59

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.4810, TAKE PROFIT 1.4646, STOP LOSS 1.4900

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.8755, TAKE PROFIT 1.0295, STOP LOSS 0.9908

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2495, TAKE PROFIT 1.2957, STOP LOSS 1.2730

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.00, TAKE PROFIT 125.72, STOP LOSS 130.20

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6961, STOP LOSS 0.7245

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, TAKE PROFIT 1.0414, STOP LOSS 1.0685

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 180.00, TAKE PROFIT 176.75, STOP LOSS 180.80

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7515, STOP LOSS 0.7265

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: Look to SELL

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.764, TAKE PROFIT 0.7451, STOP LOSS 0.7735 (revised)

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

__________________________________________________ ___________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 19

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's policy announcement. The Fed will likely change its policy statement, opening the way for a rate hike in June. However, we expect the greenback to decline following the meeting as the Fed will highlight the negative economic risks. On Thursday United States are scheduled to release jobless claims, current accout and Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecasts - upbeat).

EUR/USD consolidates slightly above 1.0600 and remains vulnerable to further selloff. The pair is unlikely to overcome the 1.0650/80 resistance area. ECB is scheduled to hold another TLTRO auction on Thursday - the demand is expected to be low. Watch the EU economic summit headlines - we could get some news on the Greek question.

GBP/USD plunged to 1.4630, disappointed by weak UK labor data and dovish BOE minutes. MPC members were focused on the downside risks to economic growth and inflation on the past meeting. They are seriously worried by growing policy divergence between the ECB and the BOE.

On top of that, pay attention to the New Zealand GDP tonight. Swiss National Bank will hold its policy meeting later in the day - we could get some hints on rate hikes planned for the coming months.

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
19 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0500 (EUR 3.3bln), 1.0600 (EUR 2.1bln);

GBP/USD: 1.4875 (GBP 252m), 1.4910 (GBP 531m), 1.4950 (GBP 717m);

USD/JPY: 120.00 (USD 447m), 121.00 (USD 330m), 122.00 (USD 2.4bln), 122.50 (USD 661m);

USD/CAD: 1.2750 (USD 240m), 1.2780 (USD 320m);

AUD/USD: 0.7630 (AUD 230m), 0.7700 (AUD 314m), 0.7800 (AUD 2bln), 0.7915 (AUD 2bln);

NZD/USD: 0.7180 (NZD 441m), 0.7350 (NZD 201m);

EUR/JPY: 128.50 (USD 326m), 130.00 (USD 258m).

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Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for March 19

Open positions:

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0605, STOP LOSS 1.0685

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.3735, TAKE PROFIT 1.3230, STOP LOSS 1.3835

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7365, TAKE PROFIT 0.7611, STOP LOSS 0.7310 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.40, TAKE PROFIT 119.29, STOP LOSS 120.88

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL on return towards 131.67

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7372, STOP LOSS 0.7160

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Large banks: what to expect from EUR/USD?

19 March 2015

Despite the change in Fed's forward guidance, the overall tone has become much softer. As a result, we've seen a strong wave of USD selling durring Yellen's press-conference: EUR/USD jumped to 1.1044. The majority of banks' positions were stopped out.

The only bank that stays in EUR/USD is Citi Bank:

1) SHORT from 1.1368, TAKE PROFIT 1.0000, STOP LOSS 1.1690 (since Feb. 6)

2) SHORT from 1.1430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1710 (since Feb. 3)

Meanwhile, Commerzbank sees the bullish correction limited at 1.1045. They are getting ready to reenter shorts.

RBC Capital Markets are also going to sell in the $1.1050-1.1100 range, targeting parity in the medium term.

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Forex trading plan for March 20

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to the downtrend resistance line connecting December highs and levels at the end of February in the area of 1.1045, but failed to sustain the advance. Retest of 1.0500 now looks quite likely. The market’s still bearish on the euro, but in the coming sessions volatility is going to be high, and we may see some attempts to bring the single currency higher, at better levels for selling. Traders are still digesting the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and may remain indecisive for some time. Resistance area is at 1.0950/1.1000. Friday will be the second day of the EU economic summit, but no important decisions are expected: the Greek problem will take more time to solve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhwGZWcgY-A

GBP/USD has made a very volatile move to 1.5160 (bottom of the daily Cloud, 50% Fibo). The following selloff halted around 1.4800 and now the pair is consolidating in the 1.4900 zone. Britain will release public sector net borrowing at 09:30 GMT, forecast is negative. Yield spread continues to favor the USD and British labor data this week disappointed. The pair’s vulnerable for decline to 1.4720/00.

USD/JPY has touched 119.30 before recovering to 120.80. The Bank of Japan’s meeting minutes will be released early on Friday. This won’t be much of the news because the meeting in question was more than a month ago. The bulls will face resistance at 121.30 and then at 122.00.

AUD/USD spiked up, but failed to close above 0.7800 on Wednesday. There’s a band of resistance in the 0.7850/0.7900 area. Support is at 0.7650 and 0.7560; the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud is still rather thick. Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Glenn Stevens will speak during Friday’s Asian session. This week we’ve learned that the RBA has become more dovish at its last meeting, and Stevens may provide some confirmation of this idea.

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GBP/USD: forecast for Mar. 23-29

By Kira Iukhtenko

Less hawkish than expected Federal Reserve failed to support the cable for long. On the weekly chart the pair formed a long-shadowed candle with a small body, but we are closing the week far below the prior 1.4800 support.

Dovish BOE meeting minutes limited the sterling’s recovery. MPC members were focused on the downside risks to economic growth and inflation on the past meeting. BOE rate hike expectations shifted to 2016 as a result. On new week watch UK inflation figures on Tuesday. Consumer prices are expected to extend the decline. On Thursday Great Britain will publish February retail sales.

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USD/JPY: forecast for March 23-29

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week the advance of USD/JPY halted, and levels above the 122.00 handle were unattainable for the bulls. US dollar tested 119.30 before recovering above 120.50.

The pair was driven mainly by the news from the United States about the Federal Reserve’s policy. As the Fed provided a more dovish stance on interest rates, the greenback’s appreciation slowed down. The overall trend for the US currency, however, is still bullish as American economic fundamentals are better than in other advanced economies including Japan.

As for the Bank of Japan, it left the policy unchanged in March in line with market’s expectations. On the one hand, Japanese policymakers keep repeating that they will reach the 2% inflation target in the year beginning in April, even if to do this they will have to increase monetary stimulus. At the same time, the minutes of the central bank’s February meeting showed that government officials who were present at the meeting said that there’s no need to hurry with encouraging inflation.

The bottom line is that although the medium-term outlook is positive, right now USD/JPY has few drivers for a decisive growth. Note that as we’re getting closer to the end of the month and the end of the fiscal year in Japan, demand for Japanese currency will go up as a result of the profit repatriation by Japanese companies. Next week all eyes will be on the US economic releases, especially inflation figures. Only on Friday there will be a block of economic statistics from Japan including inflation, retail sales & household spending data. Trading will likely be once again taking place in the 120.00/122.00 range.

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USD/JPY: forecast for March 23-29 - Forex Analytics

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US Dollar: forecast for Mar. 23-29

By Kira Iukhtenko

Federal Reserve killed the US dollar rally on Wednesday, lowering economic forecasts and pointing to increased risks. Note that FOMC members’ forecasts for the Fed’s fund rate have been lowered significantly. They now expect rate to reach only 0,62% by the end of the year.

Currency market was strongly disappointed and sold the dollar at a fastest daily pace in 6 years. The long-term USd trend still remains bullish, but we see the short-term prospects worsened. USD will likely be trading sideways with a slight bullish tendency until we see a noticeable progress in economic data.

On the new week the market will pay attention to the inflation figures on Tuesday. Consumer prices kept on falling for 4 months in a row and are expected to stay in the red zone. On Wednesday watch durable goods orders, while on Friday US will publish its final Q4 GDP.

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US Dollar: forecast for Mar. 23-29 - Forex Analytics

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EUR/USD: forecast for March 23-29

By Elizaveta Belugina

The past week brought some correction to EUR/USD. The pair spiked from 1.06/1.07 to 1.1045. Such big move was the result of the fact that the euro is seriously oversold.

The force driving EUR/USD down has diminished on the US dollar part as the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike moved from June towards September. At the same time, the predominant point of view is still that the pair will continue its slide to the parity in the medium term as the ECB’s massive quantitative easing program pulls down European bond yields and the euro. It’s clear though that the pace of the decline won’t be as rapid as it was. Traders will be aware of the short covering risk and we’ll see more of the sideways trade in the coming weeks.

Next week there will be some news about the state of the euro area’s economy: pay attention to the region’s PMI indexes on Tuesday, German Ifo business climate on Wednesday and German GfK consumer climate on Thursday. Data from the US – inflation figures in particular – will be also very important, because traders will continue adjusting their expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike.

The price chart shows that right after EUR/USD tested the 3.5-month resistance line sellers rushed into new short positions and made the pair quickly retrace much of the advance. It suggests that all attempts of the single currency to push higher will likely be rather weak. The area of 1.0950/1.1000 will provide resistance. Support at 1.0500 may hold for a time being. A decisive break lower will send the pair towards 1.0200.

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EUR/USD: forecast for March 23-29 - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 23

Open positions:

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2640, TAKE PROFIT 1.2900, STOP LOSS 1.2505

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 129.90, TAKE PROFIT 126.57, STOP LOSS 130.85

Trade signals:*

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0939, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.1040

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4785, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4685

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7710, TAKE PROFIT 0.7914, STOP LOSS 0.7640

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7275, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7330

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7515, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7445

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 24

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BldZt3wzng

US dollar opened the week under moderate bearish pressure following the last week's sharp selloff. On the past week USD index formed a strong bearish candle, but failed to form a "bearish engulfing". It confirms that the current USD decline is temporary. This week the market attention will be focused on the US inflation data on Tuesday (12:30 GMT). CPI is expected to come at 0.1% in February - better than in January, but not enough to inspire a fresh USD rally.

EUR/USD recovered above 1.0900 on Monday. Markets await a bunch of PMI indices to be released on Tuesday. The figures are expected to confirm increased optimism due to QE launch in March. If it happens, we'll see EUR/USD recovered up to 1.1500 in the coming days. GBP/USD spent the past week in an extened 1.4635/1.5160 range. Fed and BOE behaved in a similar way, pointing to increased economic risks and delaying rate hike expectations. However, the Fed is still expected to become the first one to raise rates. UK is also expected to release inflation figures tomorrow. Cable clearly remains offered below 1.5000. Break below 1.4800 would increased the pace of sales.

USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle on the past week, descending from 122.00 yen. We turned bearish for the pair following the Fed's meeting. Daily close below 119.80 would trigger a decline to 118.00. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have also gapped higher on Monday. Watch China's HSBC manufacturing PMI tonight - reading above 50 will push the commodity currencies higher from the current levels.

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 24

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9708, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9625

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 180.20

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1063

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.4820, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4715 (revised)

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: SELL at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3575, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3470

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7712, STOP LOSS 0.7495 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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GOLD: weekly wave analysis
24 March 2015

Weekly. Global corrective wave [4] is now being developped. The final part is now being built.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...BE/xauusd1.PNG

Daily. The price is now descending in a bearish impulse V of (c) of [IV]. Let's see the markup of the wave V.
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...BE/xauusd2.PNG

H4. The bullish corrective move is taking form of a simple zigzag [a]-[b]-[c]. In the coming days a small correction [b] will likely be constructed. Afterwards we expect a final bullish move in a wave [c].
http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...BE/xauusd3.PNG

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Forex trading plan for March 25

By Elizaveta Belugina

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cam1a1rA_K0

The strength of the US dollar has diminished after the Fed’s meeting last week and comments of the Deputy Governor Fisher. Yet, American inflation figures weren’t as bad as some feared. Core CPI, though low, was a bit above forecasts. On Wednesday the market’s attention will be focused on the durable goods orders release at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD has approached last week’s high in the 1.1045 area which coincides with the top Bollinger band on H4. The next resistance is at 1.1100. Data from the euro area was marginally better, so consolidation will continue with buyers around 1.0870, 1.0820 and 1.0750. Don’t miss German Ifo business climate index.

GBP/USD so far has failed to settle above January low at 1.4950. Inflation data in the UK was lower than expected. The pair lacks momentum and may revisit levels just above 1.4700. Only BBA Mortgage Approvals are due in Britain on Wednesday, not much of a market mover.

USD/JPY is below support line of the 3-month uptrend. Daily MACD is declining. Further support is at 119.08/00 and 118.60. Resistance is in the 119.80 area ahead of 120.50. US data is the main driver of the pair.

AUD/USD is testing the 0.7900 handle. The pair has breached the downtrend resistance line and entered the bearish daily Ichimoku Cloud. Resistance is at 0.8032 (Jan. 7 low) and 0.8105 (100-day MA). Support is at 0.7850 and 0.7750. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its Financial Stability Review early on Wednesday.

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
25 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 1.6bln), 1.0900 (EUR 2.3bln), 1.1000 (EUR 470m), 1.1050 (EUR 1.3bln);

USD/JPY: 118.50 (USD 400m), 120.00 (USD 1.5bln), 121.00 (USD 700m);

USD/CAD: 1.2440/55 (USD 440m), 1.2550 (USD 465m), 1.2570/75 (USD 270m).

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Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 25

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.71, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.08

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4750

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3700, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3605

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 180.20

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.7555, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7490 (revised)

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ __________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Large banks: how to trade EUR/USD?

25 March 2015

Following the Fed's March 18 meeting many market players stay cautious in trading EUR/USD. That's how the bravest are trading these days:

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039 (entered on March 24)

Morgan Stanley holds LONG from 1.0710, TAKE PROFIT 1.1080, STOP LOSS 1.0710 (entered on March 19)

Credit Suisse holds a SELL LIMIT order from 1.1098, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1255 (entered on March 24)

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 26

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JHBmPQm6o8

US Dollar index remains under pressure in the middle of the week, but holds above the Tuesday’s low. Watch the Fed’s member Dennis Lockhart speech on Thursday. In early March he made some hawkish comments. Also watch US unemployment claims on Thursday. Markets await the Friday’s final Q4 GDP – figures are expected to be revised up. That could revive USD demand on the market.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flirting with the 1.1000 hurdle, trying to fix above the 4-month trend resistance. Market sentiment towards the euro remains quite positive amid better-than-expected figures we’ve seen this week (PMIs, German business climate). On Thursday watch the German consumer sentiment index by Gfk – more positive news could follow. Next bullish target - 1.1100. Break higher would open the way to a stronger resistance at 1.1500.

GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.4900. Market volatility remains high. Next resistance - 1.4950. Anyway, we remain bearish below the 1.5000 handle. On Thursday don’t miss UK retail sales at 9:30 GMT (forecast – upbeat). US will also release BOE Financial stability report tomorrow.

AUD/USD bulls weakened on Wednesday: the pair rolled back below 0.7900. A daily fix above 0.7915 could become a strong bullish signal, while a decisive pullback – a bearish one. We’re waiting for clear signals.

USD/JPY still holds above the 100-day MA at 119.20 as we write. We target 118 yen in the coming sessions. Japan will release a bunch of data on Friday night – don’t miss CPI and retail sales.

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
26 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0820, 1.0850 (888m), 1.0900 (519m), 1.1025, 1.1040 1.1050;

USD/JPY: 118.50, 118.75, 118.80, 119.00, 119.15, 119.50, 120.00 (1.3bn);

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (631m), 0.7800, 0.7900 (1bn);

USD/CAD: 1.2300, 1.2435, 1.2550, 1.2850;

EUR/GBP: 0.7325;

EUR/JPY: 131.00, 131.75, 132.00;

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (524m), 0.7525 (400m).

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Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 26

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0979, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1039 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5203, STOP LOSS 1.4750

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 132.15

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3700, TAKE PROFIT 1.3895, STOP LOSS 1.3605

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 179.30 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7595, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7495

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY, TAKE PROFIT 0.9692

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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How do large banks trade USD/JPY?
26 March 2015

This is how large banks are now trading USD/JPY these days:

BNP Paribas holds LONG from 120.50, TAKE PROFIT 125.00, STOP LOSS 118.50 (entered on March 19)

Citi Bank holds LONG from 120.79, TAKE PROFIT 125.75, STOP LOSS 118.00 (entered on March 6)

Danske Bank holds LONG from 119.20, TAKE PROFIT 127.50, STOP LOSS 114.00 (entered on December 3)

JP Morgan holds LONG from 113.99, TAKE PROFIT 126.00, STOP LOSS 116.65 (entered on November 2)

Morgan Stanley: SELL LIMIT from 120.00, TAKE PROFIT 115.50, STOP LOSS 121.20 (entered on March 24)

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Forex trading plan for March 27

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqhZnv_j0Hg

US dollar was under pressure on Thursday as oil price went up. The decline in American unemployment claims helped the greenback to stabilize. On Friday the spotlight will be on the US final Q4 GDP (12:30 GMT). According to the consensus forecast, the reading will raised from the second reading of 2.2% to 2.4%. Later there will be speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 19:45 GMT.

EUR/USD is trying to push above 1.1000. The US dollar’s weakness has provoked a covering of the massive bearish positions. 200-period MA at 1.1057 is providing resistance at H4 chart. Further obstacle for the bulls will be at 1.1100.

USD/JPY is trying to hang at the 100-day MA at 118.70. The pair declined as demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven increased after the news about Saudi Arabia’s military operation against rebels in Yemen. Japan will release inflation & retail sales data during Friday’s Asian session. The Bank of Japan has adopted a wait-and-see stance, so unless we see some surprising changes, the releases won’t have big impact on the yen.

GBP/USD approached the psychological 1.5000 mark on better-than-expected retail sales figures, but traders don’t think that the Bank of England will change its policy, so resistance held. In this sense, comments of the central bank’s officials on Friday, including Mark Carney, may be important. As long as 1.5000 holds, the picture will be bearish with the pair leaning on support at 1.4700.

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Forex trading plan for March 27 - Forex Analytics

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 27

Open positions:*

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7810, TAKE PROFIT 0.8033, STOP LOSS 0.7745

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 131.50, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 131.70 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7595, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7540

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0696, STOP LOSS 1.1025

USD/JPY: SELL at 119.76, TAKE PROFIT 118.11, STOP LOSS 120.21

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9692, STOP LOSS 0.9487

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7245

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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EUR/USD: next sell target - 1.0600
27 March 2015

- EUR/USD reversed from resistance zone
- Next sell target - 1.0600

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 1.100 (which has been reversing the price in the last few trading sessions) and the resistance level 1.1125 (former strong support level which reversed the pair at the end of January, as you can see from the daily EUR/USD chart below). This resistance area was further strengthened by the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from December and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from February.

With the daily Stochastic indicator close to overbought levels, EUR/USD is likely to fall further inside the active minor corrective wave (b) toward the next sell target at 1.0600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.1125.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png

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EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.90
27 March 2015

• EUR/JPY completed intermediate correction (2)

• Next sell target - 126.90

EUR/JPY recently reversed down after the pair failed to break above the resistance area lying between the resistance level 130.40 (former strong support level which reversed the sharp primary downward impulse ① in January), the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse (1) and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from December. The downward reversal from this resistance area completed the preceding intermediate correction (2) and started the active intimidate impulse (3).

EUR/JPY is likely to fall further inside the active impulse (3) toward the next sell target at the strong support level 126.90 – which stopped the previous impulse (1). Sell stop-loss can be placed at the distance of one daily ATR (average true range) above the resistance level 130.40.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png

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EUR/USD: expect consolidation
27 March 2015

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1000, but failed to hold there. This confirms our assumption that bears are ready to sell the single currency on its attempts to recover as they believe that the euro will be declining in the medium term.

Data released in the euro area in the recent days were better than expected. Still, the region offers investors lower yields than the US and this is a serious reason to sell the European currency.

Next week don’t miss flash inflation figures for Germany and the euro area on Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday the European Central Bank will release the accounts of its March policy meeting. A quick reminder: in March the ECB has officially started buying the region’s bonds via quantitative easing program, lifted up 2015 GDP outlook, but cut inflation forecast.

Traders should also be aware of the developments in Greece. The nation is now preparing a list of economic reforms that satisfies its creditors and secures desperately need bailout money transfer. Greek government hopes that the euro area’s finance ministers can meet and approve its reform program as early as next Wednesday. However, the evaluation of Greece’s suggestions by an expert group may take longer, and European ministers may assemble only the week after next.

Technically EUR/USD looks poised for consolidation. Below 1.0800 the pair will likely go down for the retest of at least 1.06. A close above the 1.1050 resistance is needed to open the way to 1.1200. After the consolidation we expect the euro’s decline to resume.

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USD/JPY: forecast for March 30 – April 5

By Elizaveta Belugina

During the past week yen was in demand as a safe haven currency. Although next week tensions may produce less reaction of the market, global growth concerns can make traders keep buying Japanese currency. In addition, don’t forget the repatriation flows of Japanese companies’ income back to the yen with will support this currency in the first half of the week.

At the same time, data released in Japan showed that without the effect of a sales-tax increase last April Japanese core inflation – the Bank of Japan’s key measure – was zero. Although Japanese central bank has stressed it will look through the effect of slumping oil prices, the soft data will keep it under pressure to expand stimulus to achieve the 2% inflation target. Still, though unexpected the inflation release isn’t regarded as a sign that the Bank of Japan will add monetary stimulus at the coming meetings and this may be another reason to expect that USD/JPY will lack bullish momentum.

The bias of the pair next week will also depend on the attitude to the US dollar and American economic statistics. In Japan there will be some data releases, but of medium importance.

USD/JPY spiked down as low as to 118.30. The pair managed to get some support from the 100-day MA at 118.78. However, there are many bearish developments at the chart. It looks like the recovery, if it happens, will be limited by 120.00/50. Below 118.33 support will be in the 117.30/00 area.

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USD/JPY: forecast for March 30 ? April 5 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
30 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0700 (1.7bn), 1.0710, 1.0750, 1.0800, 1.0850, 1.0885, 1.09001 1.0950 (529m), 1.1000 (622m);

USD/JPY: 117.80, 118.00, 118.70 (850m), 119.00

AUD/USD: 0.7650, 0.7685, 0.7700, 0.7780, 0.7800

EUR/JPY: 128.50 (790m), 131.00 (698m)

USD/CAD: 1.2440, 1.2450, 1.2480 (540m), 1.2540, 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2600, 1.2740, 1.2760

AUD/JPY: 91.49, 93.50

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 30

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.35, TAKE PROFIT 120.30, STOP LOSS 118.88

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9812, STOP LOSS 0.9487

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2480, TAKE PROFIT 1.2724, STOP LOSS 1.2465

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7255

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

Trade signals:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 130.67, TAKE PROFIT 128.37, STOP LOSS 131.70

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

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Large banks: positioning on EUR crosses
30 March 2015

EUR/USD

Morgan Stanley holds SHORT from 1.0920, TAKE PROFIT 1.0500, STOP LOSS 1.1060 (entered on March 27)

Danske Bank holds SHORT from 1.0934, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951 (entered on March 27)

BNP Paribas holds SHORT from 1.0990, TAKE PROFIT 1.0400, STOP LOSS 1.1165 (entered on March 25)

Credit Suisse holds a SELL LIMIT order from 1.1098, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1255 (entered on March 24)

EUR/GBP

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7015, STOP LOSS 0.7440 (entered on March 24)

EUR/JPY

Credit Suisse holds SHORT from 130.85, TAKE PROFIT 126.95, STOP LOSS 131.88 (entered on March 23)

EUR/CHF

Danske Bank holds LONG from 1.0469, TAKE PROFIT 1.100, STOP LOSS 1.0250 (entered on March 27)

Societe Generale holds SHORT from 1.0580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9500, STOP LOSS 1.1100 (entered on Feb. 6)

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Forex trading plan for Mar. 31

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnQ3vCXDI7E

The US dollar is gaining ground at the beginning of the week, inspired by Yellen’s speech on Friday. The major event of the week – NFP – comes on Friday. In the coming days we’ll see a bunch of other important figures: Chicago PMI and consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI and ADP NFP on Wednesday. All the forecasts are upbeat.

EUR/USD dipped below 1.0900 despite upbeat euro zone’s figures. Markets await news from Greece to come this week – the country is running out of cash again. European creditors have to approve the new funding tranche. Tomorrow watch euro zone’s preliminary CPI for March and the unemployment data. Break below 1.0800 would open the way down to 1.0600. Quick progress in a Greek deal could open the way to the 1.1000 resistance, but growth in EUR/USD is unlikely to be resilient.

GBP/USD pulled below 1.4800. Daily close below would be a strong selling signal. Next support - 1.4770 and 1.4700. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Tomorrow watch the current account data and the final Q4 GDP.

USD/JPY pushed higher, testing the 120 yen mark. The 55-day MA acted as a support (119.10). Recovery above 120.40 would be a good buying signal.

Commodity currencies also remain under pressure. AUD/USD extended the decline from 0.7940, hitting 0.7650 on Monday. Fix below 0.7640 would pave the ground to 0.7550 (recent lows).

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
31 March 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0700 (EUR 323m) 1.0800 (EUR 495m) 1.1000 (EUR 504m);

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 1bln) 120.00 (USD 745m) 120.50 (USD 330m);

USD/CHF: 0.9540 (USD 620m) 0.9600 (USD 764m) 0.9800 (USD 624m);

USD/CAD: 1.2400 (USD 250m);

NZD/USD: 0.7550 (NZD 1.36bln);

EUR/CHF: 1.0500 (EUR 307m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7275/80 (EUR 785m);

EUR/JPY: 128.50 (EUR 400m).

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Mar. 31

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.35, TAKE PROFIT 120.62, STOP LOSS 119.81 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9812, STOP LOSS 0.9515 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2480, TAKE PROFIT 1.2724, STOP LOSS 1.2580 (revised)

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0951

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0355, STOP LOSS 1.0582

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00, TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7305, TAKE PROFIT 0.7459, STOP LOSS 0.7255

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 130.30, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 131.55

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7696, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7781

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3710, TAKE PROFIT 1.4090, STOP LOSS 1.3660

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7540, TAKE PROFIT 0.7373, STOP LOSS 0.7615

__________________________________________________ ____________

*Danske Bank apllies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for April 1

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD slid below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-period MA on H4. The pair has found some support above 1.0700, but a decline to 1.0690 and 1.0600 looks very likely. The close below 1.0755 (50% Fibo retracement of the March correction up) will be a negative signal. Further resistance is at 1.0800 and 1.0845 with the key level at 1.0950. On Tuesday there were some positive data from the euro area, especially Germany. However, we stick to the approach of selling the euro on its attempts to recover. On Wednesday Greek and other euro zone officials from the Euro Working Group are supposed to meet to discuss the proposed reforms. As it seems that the parties are still far from the compromise, there may be some negative impact on the euro. Later in the day the US will release ADP employment report (12:15 GMT) & ISM manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT). EUR/JPY also looks weak.

GBP/USD was under negative pressure, but found some support at 1.4750 as the UK Q4 GDP was revised a bit to the upside. Pound rose versus euro, and that helped. But EUR/GBP found some support at 0.7240. There are some indications that the pair is trying to base, but the pound looks shaky, the bulls lack strength, and we can’t rule out the decline to 1.4700. A rather strong downtrend resistance is at 1.4900. The dynamics in the coming sessions will be data-dependant. Britain will release manufacturing PMI (08:30 GMT). Also note that British pound remain under pressure ahead of the UK parliamentary election on May 7 and amid the polls showing that no party will be able to form the government on its own.

USD/JPY had an active rebound on Monday, but found resistance in the 120.00/50 area. Japan will release Tankan manufacturing & services indexes early on Wednesday, and the expectations are quite positive. The pair may spend time in the 120.50/119.00 range. Support is at 119.55. The next resistance is at 120.80 and 121.20.

On Wednesday the Asian session will be rich with economic data. Don’t miss Australian building permits (00:30 GMT) & China’s manufacturing PMI (01:00 GMT). AUD/USD slid to 0.7590. Australian currency continues to look quite weak targeting 0.7500 and lower. Resistance has moved from 0.7760 to 0.7700. Traders continue to expect the RBA to cut the interest rate soon, and this clearly undermines Aussie.

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
1 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0750 (EUR 323m), 1.0800 (EUR 2.1bln);

GBP/USD: 1.4900 (GBP 226m);

USD/JPY: 119.50/55 (USD 617m);

USD/CHF: 0.9600 (EUR 350m);

USD/CAD: 1.2680 (USD 256m), 1.2700 (USD 220m), 1.2800 (200m), 1.2900 (USD 300m);

AUD/USD: 0.7640/50 (AUD 1bln), 0.7600/05 (AUD 360m);

NZD/USD: 0.7530/35 (NZD 900m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7200 (255m), 0.7270 (EUR 706m);

AUD/JPY: 91.00 (AUD 410m).

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AUD/JPY: sell targets - 90.00 and 87.50
1 April 2015

- AUD/JPY falls inside monthly impulse ③
- Next sell targets - 90.00 and 87.50

AUD/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the major multi-year resistance level 103.00 (which also previously reversed the pair in June of 2008 and in April of 2013, as you can see from the monthly AUD/JPY chart below). The resistance zone near 103.00 was further strengthened by the upper monthly Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance level 103.00 created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – bearish Engulfing – thereby completing the previous monthly ABC correction ② from the middle of 2013.

AUD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active monthly downward impulse wave ③ toward the next sell targets 90.00 and 87.50.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...nth)%20650.png

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EUR/CHF: sell targets - 1.0400 and 1.0200
1 April 2015

• EUR/CHF falls inside intermediate ABC correction
• Next sell targets - 1.0400 and 1.0200

EUR/CHF has been falling in the last few weeks – inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B), which started in February – when the pair reversed down from the combined resistance zone lying between the following resistance levels: daily upper Bollinger Band, the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp intermediate downward impulse wave (5) from the middle of January and the resistance level 1.0800. The currently active C-wave recently broke the support level 1.0600 (which stopped the previous A-wave).

EUR/CHF is likely to continue to fall toward the next sell targets – 1.0400 and 1.0200. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken former support level 1.0600.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...day)%20650.png

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0850, TAKE PROFIT 1.0613, STOP LOSS 1.0901 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 120.08, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 120.70

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4835, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4750

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9585, TAKE PROFIT 0.9906, STOP LOSS 0.9604 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0510, TAKE PROFIT 1.0318, STOP LOSS 1.0582 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 179.00 TAKE PROFIT 175.50, STOP LOSS 178.45

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7480 TAKE PROFIT 0.7276, STOP LOSS 0.7550

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 129.50, TAKE PROFIT 127.19, STOP LOSS 130.45

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7696, TAKE PROFIT 0.7526, STOP LOSS 0.7781

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2670, TAKE PROFIT 1.2835, STOP LOSS 1.2590 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Forex trading plan for Apr. 2

The US dollar slowed its ascent on Wednesday following the release of the lower-than-expected employment indicator by ADP. The report showed the US private sector created only 189K new jobs in March. Markets are now concerned that the official NFP on Friday will also reflect the labor market slack (forecast: down from +295K to 247K). ISM Manufacturing PMI also surprised to the downside. You should also watch the US trade balance and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday to get more signals about the US economy. US dollar is expected to stay out of demand at least till the end of the week.

The other currency pairs are seen tracking the USD sentiment these days. EUR/USD recovered from 1.0720 on Wednesday, but the 1.0800 area is a strong resistance for now. Next resistance lies at 1.1000/50, while support - at 1.0600. The ECB will release its monetary policy minutes tomorrow.

GBP/USD remains under pressure below the 1.4800 mark. We remain bearish below 1.5000. Next bearish targets are 1.4740 and 1.4630. Watch the UK Construction PMI on Thursday.

AUD/USD slowed the decline on Wednesday, finding daily support around 0.7580. China’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside on Wednesday. Australia itself is scheduled to release its trade balance on Thursday - trade gap is expected to have widened in February.

USD/JPY pulled down from the 120.40 area on the overall USD weakness. Buyers’ indecisiveness reopens the way towards the 118 yen support.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsO2lTkL5hE

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Forex trading plan for Apr. 2 - Forex Analytics