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Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Oil market imbalances: new threats from China
9/28/2016 According to the International Energy Agency, China is one of the major importers of crude oil in the world. For many years People’s Republic enjoyed the relatively low oil prices to stockpile crude for its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). Now, it was announced that Chinese reserves are almost full. This fact, in perspective, may wind down the major oil exporters’ derisive attempts to reach the deal on the oil production freeze to bring the prices back from their extreme lows. Oil experts believe that China may seriously disrupt the commodity markets, once it decides to play its trump card – use or sell its sacred oil reserves in order to keep the oil prices at their current level. Because People’s Republic doesn’t become better off from the oil price hikes. Nobody knows exactly at which extend this may affect oil markets, as China prefers not to reveal the information about how many barrels it managed to preserve. But, if we refer to the level of Chinese oil consumption (which was around 11.5 million barrels a day in June, according to the IEA), we may conclude, that China’s SPR is not small. Meanwhile, a significant slowdown in Chinese demand chills the spine of major producers. Once they lose such a good customer, they will have to shrink their profits considerably. And with the deal on the oil output reduction looming on the horizon, this perspective doesn’t make them happy. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10665 |
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EUR/GBP reversed from pivotal resistance level 0.8700
9/28/2016 EUR/GBP reversed from pivotal resistance level 0.8700 Next sell target - 0.8500 EUR/GBP recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 0.8700 (which also previously reversed the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (3)). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.8700 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 0.8700 stopped the 3r minor impulse wave 3 of the active intermediate impulse (5). Given the strength of the resistance level 0.8700, EUR/GBP is expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.8500 (standing close to the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse form the start of September). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...(1_day)(1).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10666 |
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AUD/NZD reversed from support zone
9/28/2016 AUD/NZD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0700 AUD/NZD continues to rise – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.0300, 1.0200 and the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3. With the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the weekly Stochastic indicator – AUD/NZD is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target 1.0700 (which reversed the previous waves (2) and 2). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...M_(1_week).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10667 |
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GBP: a hint of recovery, but for how long?
9/28/2016 The EUR/GBP has fallen significantly since Monday as investors became anxious about how Deutsche Bank manages to unravel from its mounting problems. However, the pound’s advances are believed to be limited and the currency could easily crash from its peaks unless supportive data is published this Friday. Alternatively, if we don’t receive any signs of British economic recovery, the GBP may shoot again from its weekly highs. The main stakeholders favor the first scenario which stands for the pound’s depreciation. Danske – the largest bank in Denmark, is long EUR/GBP from 0,8374, with a target at 0,9000 and stop at 0,8100. Its decision could be explained by various reasons. Danske believes that GBP will continue to depreciate with BoE’s monetary easing and considerable imbalances in the UK economy. It points out at the forecasts of the significant current deficit of approximately 6,4% of 2015 GDP. On top of this, Bank of England in its latest announcement made it clear that it is going to cut rates again this year, if its forecasts for growth are confirmed by the data. In addition, there is uncertainty about further EU-UK relationship is hovering in the air. The British government has yet not triggered the withdrawal process, striving to somehow prepare the vulnerable economy for the turbulent consequences. Société générale also remains bearish of GBP and decides to open long position on EUR/GBP from 0,8620 with a target at 1,0000. According to the bank’s analysts, the EUR/USD may rise by 5 – 10% from its current position. There is a great potential for an upward movement, since there was a long period of consolidation and sideways trading. CITI, unlike its colleagues, tends to support the second scenario. Recently, it has opened a short position on EUR/GBP from 0,8622, with a target at 0,8333 and a stop at 0,8750. CITI’s analysts noticed an evening star pattern on the technical EUR/GBP chart. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPDaily(1).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10668 |
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USD/CAD: bears will be trying to consolidate their success
9/29/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, the "bulls" fulfilled targets which we had set in our last article and came closer to the very important level of 1.33. Quotes failed to go beyond the trade channel 1.298-1.33; this resulted in sales. Target of the red "Shark" pattern at 88.6% (1.286) has not yet fulfilled; it creates prerequisites for new attacks of "bears". https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_20_08.png On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes will continue to rise if the "bulls" manage to return them into the margins of the rising trading channel. Rebound from the resistance at 1.314 will be the signal for opening short positions. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_20_32.png Recommendation: SELL 1.314 SL 1.3195 TP1 1.306 TP2 1.298 TP3 1.286. CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10669 |
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AUD/USD: Aussie stumbled aross the wedge
9/29/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, the rise towards 0.78 continues. There is a target 88.6% of the inverted pattern "Shark". Former resistance at 0.767 now serves as a key support. If the "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above this level, the chances of the further rise will increase significantly. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_25_34.png On the AUD/USD hourly chart, formation of the expanding wedge pattern creates prerequisites for a correction. If the "bulls" fail to hold support at 0.767, the breach of 0.764 will increase the risk of the downfall towards 0.7585 and 0.755.? https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9_08_25_51.png Recommendations: BUY 0,767 SL 0,7615 TP 0,78 SELL 0,764 SL 0,7695 TP1 0,7585 TP2 0,755 AUD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10670 |
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EUR/USD: "Triple Bottom" led to consolidation
9/29/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a downward consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The price faced a support at 1.1181, which led to the current bullish correction. At the same time, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1198 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.1256, which is strengthened by the bearish trend. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a consolidation, which is going up and down between the levels 1.1240 – 1.1180. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach a support at 1.1213 – 1.1196 in the short term. However, if bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.1256. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10671 |
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GBP/USD: local support waiting for bears
9/29/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. The price faced a resistance at 1.3056, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.2979 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115 in the short term. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.2995 – 1.2979 during the day. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this area, then the price will have a free way to reach a resistance at 1.3030 – 1.3056. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10672 |
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Key option levels for Thursday, September 29th
9/29/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(42).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 37 085 ? + 107 227 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1257; 1.1282; 1.1302; 1.1330 Closest support levels 1.1225; 1.1203; 1.1172; 1.1134 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1225, with target points at 1.1203 and 1.1172 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1257 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1282 and 1.1302 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(41).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 422 ? + 341 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3074; 1.3104; 1.3127; 1.3155 Closest support levels 1.3019; 1.2989; 1.2967; 1.2940 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.3019, with target points at 1.2989 and 1.2967 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3074 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3104 and 1.3127 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(39).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 552 ? + 734 ? Closest resistance levels 101.73; 102.16; 102.62; 103.11 Closest support levels 100.29; 100.04; 99.81; 99.51 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.73, with the target points at 102.16 and 102.62 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.29 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.04 and 99.81 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDCAD(37).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 438 ? + 1 215 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3096; 1.3127; 1.3161; 1.3212 Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3031; 1.2994; 1.2943 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3096, with the target points at 1.3127 and 1.3161 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3055 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3031 and 1.2994 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10674 |
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Beware of the Italian referendum
9/29/2016 The next wave of turbulences will be expected in December, as soon as Italians vote for or against the constitutional reform aiming to drastically curb the power of the Senate. Currently, both chambers have equal powers in the decision-making process. Under reform, however, the number of senators will be reduced significantly (from 314 directly elected to 95 indirectly elected by the regional councils); and the participation of the Senate in the law-making procedures will be drastically diminished. The reform is supposed to make Italian more governable and more responsive to the bad occurrences in Italian economy. A referendum is needed because the aforementioned reform failed to receive the necessary two-thirds endorsement from the parliament earlier this year. Mateo Renzi, desperately seeking to propel it, even decided to step in front of a moving train and tied the results of the referendum to his own political career. In case of defeat, he will have to step down as Italian Prime Minister, opening up the possibility of new elections. This “Cameronlike” behavior makes this referendum even more special, earthshattering in a certain extent. Why it’s so? Because the Renzi’s failure will heighten policy uncertainty and throw open the doors for the internet-based Five Star Movement, founded by a comedian, Beppe Grillo, and composed of political novices. In the unpracticed hands, the worst is yet to come for Italian economy and the Eurozone. So far, what we can do with this information to offset the risk of “No” vote? As one of the possible way out of the situation, we suggest hedging against a potential escalation of Italian risks by selling 10 year Italian bonds versus US Treasuries. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10675 |
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EUR/USD: the trades return to SSB
9/29/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1210; resistance – 1.1230 Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1200; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1130. 2. Buy — 1.1240; SL — 1.1220; TP1 — 1.1300; TP2 – 1.1330. Reason: a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a narrow Ichimoku Cloud; strong resistance of SSB. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(44).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10676 |
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AUD/USD: the Bulls have a chance
9/29/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7660; resistance – 0.7700. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7660; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(27).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10677 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: unexpected activation of the Bulls
9/29/2016 Technical levels: support – 101.20; resistance – 101.70, 102.10. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 101.20; SL — 101.00; TP1 — 101.70; TP2 — 102.10. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the lines of Indicator have rising; the prices are in the Cloud; a new golden cross of Tenkan and Kijun. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(33).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10678 |
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CAD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 76.00
9/29/2016 CAD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 76.00 Next buy target - 78.50 CAD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the pivotal support level 76.00 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in June, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star (which marked the end of the previous impulse wave (iii)). CAD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 78.50 (intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of September). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10681 |
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USD/JPY reversed from support zone
9/29/2016 USD/JPY reversed from support zone Next buy targets - 102.20 and 103.00 USD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 100.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The support level 100.00 also previously reversed the earlier waves (B), (1) and B, as can be seen from the daily USD/JPY chart below. Given the strength of the support level 100.00 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - USD/JPY can be expected to rise further toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 102.20 and 103.00 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10682 |
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OPEC’s decision: implications for oil
9/29/2016 OPEC members decided to cut production for the first time since 2008. The plan is to reduce output by 700K a day to 32.5-33M barrels a day. The measure is aimed to help oil prices stabilize and strengthen. The organization aims to reveal more details about the deal at its next policy meeting on November 30. The agreement was possible because Iran will be exempt from capping production – a concession made by Saudi Arabia. At first the news may seem to be a game changer – the market was looking forward for a production freeze at best and got more than that – a cut. The deal marks a new stage of relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who were caught in hard economic and political confrontation during the past years. The market’s faith in OPEC will increase. However, once you try to analyze the situation, you understand that there are still many challenges ahead. To begin with, OPEC nations have to choose how the cut will be allocated between members. This likely won’t be an easy process. In addition, OPEC will have to reach an agreement with non-OPEC oil producers – another difficult task. As a result, many analysts are rather skeptical. Goldman Sachs says that new quotas could add $7-$10 a barrel to oil prices in the first half of 2017, if the accord is strictly implemented. At the same time, the bank sees serious risks that quotas will be exceeded: usually the group overshoots its objectives by almost 5%. If it happens again, quotas will become inefficient. In addition, Citigroup warns that higher oil prices will make US producers increase output, so the market will remain oversupplied. If that is the case, oil prices will stay under negative pressure. Brent oil opened with a gap up at 49.40, but then slid below 49.00. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10683/oil(1).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10683 |
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EUR/USD: bears going to test "Window" once again
9/29/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09eurusdh4.png There’s a consolidation on the Moving Averages, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami” patterns, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line, which could reverse the price movement into an upward direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, if the price gets a support on the 34 Moving Average, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09eurusdh1.png The lower “Window” has been acted as a strong support, but we’ve got a “Harami” at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, it’s likely that bears going to test the “Window” once again in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10684 |
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USD/JPY: support line waiting for bears
9/29/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09usdjpyH4.png There’s a support by the lower “Window”. Also, we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, a “Harami” and a “High Wave”, which all have been confirmed. Considering the last “Shooting Star”, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” pattern, so the price is likely going to achieve the 21 Moving Average. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which both have a confirmation. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the closest support level, which could reverse the price movement into a bullish direction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10685 |
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Earn more with Elder’s strategy
9/29/2016 Triple Screen Trading System Beginners often look for a magic tool – a signal indicator that could help them to earn piles of money. If they get lucky for a while, they think that they’ve discovered the road to Eldorado. But, when the magic dies, and these amateurs start losing money, they give up on their old playfellow and start hunting for another goldmine. Well, I won’t discover America, if I tell you that it’s wrong. The markets are too complex to be analyzed with a single indicator. And, as soon as you read the latter sentence, you will probably say: “Well, ok, I tried to use different indicators, but they give me contradictory signals”. And you will be absolutely right; indicators like wrangling with each other and give traders false buy/sell signals. To help you to grapple with this confusing situation, Alexander Elder, one of the brightest men of traders’ society, invented a so-called triple screen trading system. It combines the trend-following indicators with oscillators and filters out their disadvantages while preserving their strengths. Genius, told you! Like a triple screen marker in medical science (before getting involved in financial trading, Elder worked as a psychiatrist, by the way), the triple screen trading system applies several unique tests, or screens, to every trading decision. Thereby it minimizes your risks and offers you more profits. How does this system work? First, you should decide which timeframe you want to trade. There are three main trends – long-term, intermediate and minor. Robert Rhea, the prominent market technician of the 1930s, compared these market trends to a tide, a wave, and a ripple accordingly. He believed that traders have to trade in the direction of the market tide (which could be identified on the first screen of a larger time frame), take advantage of the waves (which indicate intermediate changes in trading patterns) and keep an eye on the ripples (don’t ignore the minor trade signals displayed on the third screen). For example, if you want to trade for several days, then your intermediate timeframe will be defined by the daily charts. Weekly charts will help you to determine long-lasting trends (tides), and hourly charts will shield you from minor fluctuations within the upward/downward trade channel. First Screen Once you defined your timeframes, you can plunge into unraveling the trade patterns. Start with analyzing the long-term chart to define the dominant trend with the help of trend-following indicators. Look at the slope of MACD-Histogram, when it is up – bulls control the market. And, conversely, when the slope is down, it shows that bears are in control which means that you should trade only from the short side. A single upswing or downswing of weekly MACD Histogram tells us about the change of the trend. The upturns that occur below the center line give better buy signals than those that lie above the centerline (because here we observe the very “birth” of the upward trend). The downturns which occurs above the centerline give better sell signal than the downturns below the centerline. Off course, you can use a simpler tool to identify the trend – an exponential moving average, for example. It’s up to you. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...size_distr.png The Second Screen helps us to identify the waves that go against the tide (the weekly trend may go up, while the daily trend may decline and indicate buying opportunities, and vice versa). And here, on the second screen, oscillators come into play, they should be used to define these deviations from the weekly trend. Oscillators give buy signals when market decline and sell signals when market rise. And your task is to find only those daily signals that point in the direction of the dominant weekly trend. For example, if the weekly trend is rising, you should take into consideration only buy signals from daily oscillators and ignore their sell signals. To do so you can use Force Index and the 2-day EMA oscillators. Stochastic oscillator also performs well. It gives trading signals when its line enters a buy or a sell zone. When weekly MACD rises, but daily Stochastic falls below 30, it identifies the oversold area (a buy signal). Alternatively, when the weekly MACD declines, but Stochastic rises above 70, it identifies an overbought area (a sell signal). Third Screen The third screen is used to identify so-called ripples which go against the dominant trend. It uses intraday price action to pinpoint entry points. The third screen doesn’t require any technical tools. It helps to enter the market once the first and second screens gave a signal to buy or sell short. It is a trailing technique used to warn when you should to stop buying in uptrends, or stop selling in downtrends. For example, when the weekly trend is up and the daily trend is down, trailing buy-stops catch upside breakouts. When the weekly trend is down and the daily one is up, trailing sell-stops catch downside breakouts. When the weekly trend is up and a daily oscillator declines, you’d better to activate a trailing buy-stop technique. Place a buy order one tick above the high of the previous day. If prices continue to rise, you will be automatically stopped when they reach the mark of the previous day’s high. If prices continue to fall, your buy-stop won’t be activated. The next day you should lower your order to the level one tick above the latest price candle. You should continue to do so every day until the weekly indicators shows another trend. The same tactics should be applied when the dominant trend is falling. The daily oscillator should go up, and then you activate a trailing sell-stop technique. You should place an order to sell short one tick below the latest candle’s low. If the market decides to change its direction, you will be protected from losses with the help of a trailing sell-stop technique. Change its location every day until the weekly trend changes its direction. By using the Elder’s strategy described in this article, you will be well-protected from the risks of losing money (the risk of being deceived by the false trading signals) and, at the same time, you will be able to earn more (with help of indicators and oscillators you won’t miss your profits). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10686/007_14.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10686 |
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EUR/USD: "Double Zigzag" in wave E
9/29/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9165318001.png Wave E of (Y) turned out to be a Double Zigzag, so wave [x] is likely going to be continued. If we see a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in wave [y] of E. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...9165318002.png There’s a zigzag in wave [x], which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Previously, wave (b) was ended under 4/8 MM Level, so bears are likely going to reach the main intraday target at 2/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10687 |
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From gloomy medieval week back to Renaissance: positive news, finally!
9/29/2016 This week brought many positive news and cheered up traders tired of the relative bearishness of the markets. To begin with, Hillary Clinton won the first presidential debate against Donald Trump. Hillary is considered to be good for US stock markets, because she represents additional 4 years of Obama’s presidency which had a rather positive impact on the stock prices and corporate earnings. Moreover, OPEC has finally agreed to freeze oil production for the first time in 8 years. This piece of news especially surprised traders who hadn’t expected such a positive turn of event, and the market’s risk sentiment considerably improved. Oil prices have risen significantly (by more than 5%) in New York after ministers announced that the group agreed to cut production to a range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day. In addition, according to the data released on Thursday, US economic growth in Q2 was revised to the upside from 1.1% to 1.4%. The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average on Wednesday and managed to recover from monthly drop of 2.1%. Analysts say that there are reasons to believe that stocks will keep rising. Firstly, the spread between dividends and 10-year Treasuries has risen, and there are no signs that they will go into negative territory. This positive tendency is extremely rare, if it continues, the demand for equities will increase significantly. Secondly, this time of a year is a rather favorable for stock markets. The fourth quarter has historically been up 80% of the time during the last 50 years, and 30 to 60 sessions post-elections the market has been up almost 63% of the time since 1928. That’s why we expect the S&P 500 to rise further, despite the fact that it has already reached its historical highs. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10688 |
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USD/CAD & Canadian GDP (July): A new wave of sellers coming?
9/30/2016 Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the Canadian GDP on a monthly basis for July, where the analysts are expecting to see a decrease to 0.3% from 0.6% (June). This reading could be a market mover, especially for the CAD pairs that were affected during the week due to OPEC meetings. During June, GDP had an expansion to 0.6%, which was a positive indicator, but it will be interesting to see the price action of an exhausted currency. Our technical picture for USD/CAD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias, following the support found near 1.3051. Currently, it's facing the resistance zone of 1.3171, where a breakout higher can bring a momentum to the upside in order to test the 1.3236 level, which is above the 200 SMA. However, if data comes better than expected, then it could pullback to test the trend line that touches the lows from Thursday, around the 1.3051 level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDCADH1(2).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10689 |
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USD/JPY: will yen break the trend?
9/30/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" still cannot consolidate their position above the important level of 101.35. If they succeed, it will increase the risks of breaking the upper limit of the long-term rising channel near the mark of 101.9. There is a risk that the pair will move further to 102.5 and 103.2. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_11_04.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes almost reached the resistance line at 101.9. There is an upper limit of the downward trade channel and 50% Fibonacci level of XA wave of the "Bat" pattern. Successful test of the resistance line will create prerequisites for the continuation of the northward movement in the direction of 102.5, 103.2 and 103.5. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_11_18.png Recommendation: BUY 101,9 SL 101,35 TP1 103,2 TP2 103,5 JPY More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10690 |
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GBP/USD: the bulls don’t want to lose
9/30/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2940/50; resistance – 1.3010. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2970; SL — 1.2950; TP1 — 1.3010; TP2 — 1.3100. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines are horizontal; a strong support of 1.2950. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(26).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10691 |
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EUR/USD: long period of consolidation
9/30/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation near the important level of 1.1207. Breakout of the support at 1,118 will lead to the fall of quotes in the direction of the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. There is a 50% level of the wave XA. The "bears" will unlikely reach this level, therefore, we could try a rebound strategy. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_06_15.png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the "Head and shoulders" and the "Gartley" patterns have been formed. Breakout of the neckline near 1,118 will create prerequisites for the movements of the quotes in the direction of 1,1157. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0_08_06_29.png Recommendation: BUY 1,116 SL 1,1105 TP1 1,1245 TP2 1,127. EUR More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10692 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Friday, September 30th
9/30/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(43).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 40 882 ↑ + 48 841 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.1256; 1.1281; 1.1300; 1.1328 Closest support levels 1.1202; 1.1171; 1.1133; 1.1089 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1202, with target points at 1.1171 and 1.1133 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1256 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1281 and 1.1300 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(42).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 201 ↑ + 1 037 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.2990; 1.3027; 1.3045; 1.3067 Closest support levels 1.2967; 1.2941; 1.2920; 1.2892 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2967, with target points at 1.2941 and 1.2920 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2990 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3027 and 1.3045 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(40).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 626 ↑ + 2 175 ↑ Closest resistance levels 101.13; 101.31; 101.54; 101.85 Closest support levels 100.75; 100.56; 100.23; 99.96 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.13, with the target points at 101.31 and 101.54 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.75 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.56 and 100.23 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDCAD(38).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 827 ↑ + 57 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.3165; 1.3191; 1.3231; 1.3287 Closest support levels 1.3116; 1.3098; 1.3067; 1.3021 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3165, with the target points at 1.3191 and 1.3231 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3116 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3098 and 1.3067 EUR JPY GBP CAD USD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10695 |
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GBP/USD: bears going to test uptrend line
9/30/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price faced a resistance at 1.3056, which led to form a “Thorn” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support by the uptrend line. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance by the 34 Moving Average. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2935 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.3010. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10696 |
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AUD/USD outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 What do the present AUD/USD price patterns tell us, and what next week will bring us? The Australian dollar once again tried to challenge key resistance line at 0.77 this week, but failed to withstand its US counterpart. In the upcoming week we don’t expect any considerable moves from Aussie. We would suggest opting for the sidelines, as the news calendar doesn’t foresee any significant events that could underpin the AUD rise/downfall the next week. Perhaps, only the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting will increase the degree of volatility. According to Latest Reuters poll of 57 economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia will unlikely change its interest rate at Tuesday meeting remaining concerned about low inflation and gradual AUD appreciation. But, fortunately, the strong housing market keeps Australian growth afloat. The August data form Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a significant rise in number of the building approvals, we expect the confirmation of this trend in its next release coming next week. In addition, economic growth has held up well, commodity prices experienced an upsurge. Taking into consideration all these factors, the RBA will unlikely introduce any easing measures this time. Also, we would encourage you to keep an eye on the trade balance data coming on Thursday next week. Last release didn’t show big distortions; we hope that this time there won’t be any considerable changes as well. The smooth movement of the AUD/USD can be disturbed by the US Non-Farm Employment Change release. This data provides an early outlook of the American employment growth, which usually doesn’t deviate from the official government data. If there are any changes in the pair movement next week, they are expected to be insignificant. A break of the resistance line at 0.7710 will pave the way for the further northward movement up to the 0.7725 – 0.7733 zone (resistance line). Alternatively, a retreat from the level of 0.7560 will throw the doors open for the test of the next support line at 0.7475. But the technical picture doesn’t tell us that downward trend is looming – there are no clear-cut bearish trade signals. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(16).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10697 |
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EUR/USD: bears broken the "Window"
9/30/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09eurusdh4.png There’s a bearish price movement, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, a “Harami” and a “Doji”, which all have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a bearish “Engulfing”, which has a confirmation, so the price is going to test the 34 Moving Average soon. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09eurusdh1.png We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on the nearest Moving Average line. Moreover, the price has broken the “Window”, so bears are likely going to move on in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10698 |
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EUR/CAD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
9/30/2016 EUR/CAD reversed from resistance level 1.4900 Next sell target - 1.4600 EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 1.4900 (which is the lower boundary of the strong resistance zone which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from March, as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below). The upper border of the aforementioned resistance zone stands at the round resistance level 1.5000. This resistance area was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January. EUR/CAD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4600 (low of the previous minor correction (ii)). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10699 |
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EUR/NZD reversed from resistance area
9/30/2016 EUR/NZD reversed from resistance area Next sell target - 1.5200 EUR/NZD recently reversed down from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.5500 (which earlier reversed pervious waves (iv), (a) and 2, as can be seen below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the pervious sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of July. The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance area started the active minor impulse wave 3. EUR/NZD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5200 (which reversed the (b)-wave of the pervious ABC correction 2). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10700 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: pullback from "Window" led to massive decline
9/30/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09usdjpyH4.png We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Shooting Star” pattern, so the price is likely going to get a support on the 13 Moving Average line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, a bullish “Harami” has been confirmed, so bulls are going to test the 21 Moving Average. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...09usdjpyH1.png The upper “Window” has acted as a resistance, which led to the current decline. However, considering the last “Hammer” pattern, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10701 |
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AUD/USD: on a Cloud’s support
9/30/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7660. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A; a strong support of the Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(28).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10693 |
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EUR/USD: price wallow in consolidation
9/30/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a support at 1.1196 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1256. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png The price is moving up and down between the levels 1.1247 – 1.1196. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1196 – 1.1190 during the day. However, if sellers be stopped here, then bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.1256 – 1.1258. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10694 |
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USD/CAD outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 This week Loonie grew in value due to the Iranian and Saudi decision to curb their insatiable appetites for profits. Two great oil producers have finally found the common ground and agreed for an output cap. But exhilaration ended at the end of the week. Oil prices are gradually returning to their annual trends and the USD/CAD is recovering from its recent downfall. Although we should give proper respect to the Canadian steadfast tin soldier which managed to withstand even the positive news flow from the US (US Department of labor reported that the number of initial application for unemployment benefits for this week rose by 3000 from the previous week which is much less than it was expected by analysts; the US GDP growth accelerated and reached 1,4 %; Yellen still hints at the probability of rate’s hike; US consumer confidence data continue to impress the markets with excellent readings). Nevertheless, we can’t be a hundred percent certain that the Loonie’s rally will last forever; it will finally depreciate in relation to its US counterpart. Numerous domestic problems and inevitable fall in oil prices will cause this downfall. Governor of the Bank of Canada Poloz in his speech on Monday stated that the Canada’s potential economic growth powered by the high birth rates is now ending. The job market in Canada is fading with rising amount of elderly. This will deter the BOC from any rate hikes in the nearest future to keep inflation in check. According to Poloz, the neutral interest rate is exactly what Canada needs right now. Poloz has also pointed at the fact that the impact of lower oil prices may influence Canadian economy significantly. Next week will bring us many data releases offering a seasonal outlook of Canadian economy – trade balance, building permits, unemployment rate, employment change, purchasing managers’ Index. Add to this a bunch of releases coming from the United States, and the volatility bomb will explode. Once we get acquainted with all these reports, we will be able to assess the true potential for the economic growth of Canada and define in which direction the Loonie will proceed. If we take a look at the daily chart, we will see that there was a long period of consolidation and trading sidelines. The USD/CAD was trading within the 1.33 – 1.28 levels for many days. The breakout of the resistance line at 1.327 is unlikely possible this week; this makes us to plot a lower resistance line at 1.3212. If American statistics doesn’t give us positive result, we expect the trend go down to the support line at 1.304. If ‘bears’ manage to take situation under control, the downward trend might reach the 1,2890 mark. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDCADDaily.png More: [https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10702 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave [y] of E
9/30/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0160311001.png There’s wave E of (Y), which is taking form of a double zigzag. It’s likely that wave [x] of E is going to end soon. So, if we see a pullback from 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), bulls are likely going to reach 6/8 MM Level in the short term. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...0160311002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave [x]. Therefore, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens, then bulls are likely going to deliver wave [y] of E, which could take a form of a zigzag like it was in wave [w]. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10703 |
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US dollar: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 In line with our expectations decline of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged in September was limited. US dollar index consolidated above 95.00 and even rose to 95.70 by the week’s end. US election race continues. According to an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, 52% of likely voters said that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton “won" the first presidential debate, while 21% thought that the Republican Donald Trump was the winner. Clinton is perceived to be good for stocks and bearish for the greenback, while Trump, on the contrary, is associated with unpredictable policy steps, which should result in stronger USD. All in all, Trump is currently performing better than many political observers expected, so the overall uncertainty should continue. As for American monetary policy, traders aren’t sure what will happen as well. Look how divided the market is now on the possibility of US rate hike in December: it’s almost 50-50 chance, according to CME data. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said higher rate will likely be appropriate this year, but it’s clear that the regulator’s decision will depend on the incoming economic data. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../fed_watch.png Economic figures from the US in the past week were mainly better-than-expected: Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4% and durable goods orders didn’t decline in August as strongly as it was expected. Next week America will release ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, ADP non-farm employment change on Wednesday and unemployment claims on Thursday. On Friday expect increased volatility as the US will publish NFP (nonfarm payrolls) and other labor market figures. Also on Friday we’ll here from a bunch of Fed speakers – Fisher, Mester, George and Brainard. In addition, there will be more political news: Vice presidential debate will take place on Tuesday. Resistance for USD index is at 96.25 (late August and September highs). Support is at 95.00 (support line since May). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...r_index(1).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10704 |
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EUR/USD: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 The main source of negative impact on the euro this week were the worries about the future of Deutsche Bank. US Justice Department is demanding the bank to pay $14 billion fine to settle civil claims related to its dealings in mortgage-backed securities. There are reports that hedge funds start to withdrew money from Deutsche. It seems that German government is reluctant to provide financial help for the institution. The problems of the bank reignited fears about the condition of the European banking sector. Another German bank – Commerzbank – had unveiled plans to cut up to 10 000 jobs and suspend dividends for the first time. These concerns will keep affecting the euro. Economic data from the euro area were mixed. German Ifo business climate index exceeded expectations and the region’s inflation rate increased from 0.2% to 0.4% in September, but the price growth doesn’t look very convincing with core inflation stagnating at 0.8% and unemployment stuck above 10%. The region’s economic calendar for the next week looks rather empty: German banks will have a holiday on Monday, European countries will release final manufacturing and services PMIs during the week and the ECB will publish accounts of its latest meeting on Thursday. All these events are of medium importance, so the Deutsche Bank saga and US nonfarm payrolls will be the main market movers. EUR/USD once again failed to settle above the declining 100-week MA, which currently lies in 1.1225 area. Resistance is at 1.1225 and 1.1280 ahead of 1.1360 and 1.1400. At the same time, 50-day MA went above 100-week MA on the daily chart – a sign that buyers are willing to fight, so we don’t expect any strong selloff of the euro. Support is at 1.1160 (200-day MA), 1.1100 (support line from November 2015). Decline below this point will open the way down to 1.1070 and 1.1010. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(16).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10705 |
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GBP/USD: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 GBP/USD remained within the range of the previous week between 1.3055 and 1.2915. The UK’s large current account deficit leaves the currency highly dependent on foreign exchange inflows. The pound is affected by Brexit woes as well as subdued investor sentiment related to concerns over the health of Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. So far the economic figures from UK haven’t been bad. On the contrary, Q2 GDP growth was revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%. Next week Britain will release manufacturing, construction and services PMIs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and manufacturing production on Friday. US labor market figures on Friday will also add to the pair’s volatility. The pair’s consolidating at the lower edge of its 3-month range. The area corresponds to the multiyear minimums of the British currency, so it will take strong drivers to pull the pair significantly lower. Still, there’s scope for more decrease to 1.2865 (August low) and 1.2790 (post-Brexit low) on the close below 1.2900. We stick to the view that it will be hard for the sterling to show any significant recovery. The pound looks weaker than other currencies against the greenback. Resistance is at 1.3000, 1.3115 and 1.3180/1.3200. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(14).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10706 |
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USD/JPY: outlook for October 3-7
9/30/2016 USD/JPY rose from 100.00 to 102.00, but remains limited on the upside by 2016 resistance line. Us dollar was driven higher against yen as Hillary Clinton’s victory at the first US presidential debate and OPEC deal to cut oil production initially improved the market’s risk sentiment. Then, however, demand for the yen as a safe haven increased once again on the back of problems with Deutsche Bank and the doubts that oil exporters will really reduce output. Inflation figures released in Japan came below forecasts. Core consumer prices contracted by 0.5%. Normally such figures would make investors think that the Bank of Japan will intensify its monetary easing. However, there’s speculation that the regulator has reached a limit in stimulus and is no longer able to make the yen decline. Last week the Bank of Japan said that it would target 10-year bond yield at levels around 0%, but this week the market pushed the yield to -0.09%. In order to stick to its target, the BOJ would have to reduce its massive bond purchase program. Such reduction would be interpreted as a sign that the regulator won’t ease policy further, so the yen will strengthen. For now, central bank officials backed away saying that bond yield target isn’t strict and there’s no need to cut stimulus. Still, the doubts about the regulator’s efficiency represent a negative factor for USD/JPY. Next week Japan will publish Tankan manufacturing & services PMIs on Monday. The pair will be driven by the market’s sentiment and US labor market data. Technical levels for the pair remain pretty much the same – 102.00, 103.30 and 104.00 as resistance and 100.00 and 99.00 as support. Despite the recent gains of the pair, USD/JPY will likely aim at lower levels testing support. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...YDaily(13).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10707 |
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