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EUR/USD: candlestick analysis 10 February 2016 Galina Svetlova http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...02eurusdH4.png The price has formed a “High Wave” pattern near the last maximum. It's likely that the correction will go further to the level of previously formed a “Tweezers” pattern. There's a possibility to form a "Bearish Harami" pattern on the daily chart. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...02eurusdH1.png The current correction has been started after a “Shooting Star” pattern appeared at the last maximum. In the short term the downward movement can continue falling towards the last "Window" support level. However, if the price reaches a support on the Moving Average line and the “Tweezers” pattern level, it’s very likely that the main trend will go on. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7853 |
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USD/JPY: candlestick analysis 10 February 2016 Galina Svetlova http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...02usdjpyH4.png The bullish rally become slower after a “Hummer” and a “Inverted Hummer” have been formed at the last minimum. At the same time, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern as well, so it’s likely that we’ll see just a small correction and more selling pressure afterwards. The bullish "Hammer" has been formed on the daily chart. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...02usdjpyH1.png There’s a correction in progress near the last minimums and we’ve got three bullish patterns: a “Hummer’, a “Morning Doji Star” and a “Tweezers’. The price movement has found a resistance at the 2014 minimum. There's still time for the correction, but it’s very likely that the main trend is going to continue soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7854 |
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CAD/JPY: sell targets - 79.00 and 78.00 11 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -CAD/JPY broke support level 80.00 -Next sell targets - 79.00 and 78.00 CAD/JPY continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (5) of the primary downward impulse wave ③ from last June. The active impulse wave (5) started earlier this month - when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 87.30, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from last year. Having just broken below the support level 80.00 - CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell targets at the support level 79.00 (low of the earlier impulse wave (3), which reversed the pair with the daily Hammer in January) and 78.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7865 |
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GBP/JPY: sell targets - 160.00 and 157.50 11 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/JPY broke support level 165.00 -Next sell targets - 160.00 and 157.50 GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp breakout of the support level 165.00, which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of January. The breakout of this support level greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 from the start of February (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November). GBP/JPY is likely to fall in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 160.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 157.50. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 165.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7864 |
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US dollar: forecast for Februaty 15-21 By Elizabeth Belugina US dollar index fell to the lowest levels since October. The Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that she still expected the central bank to increase interest rates gradually this year. At the same time, she underlined that the central bank won’t necessarily do that taking into account volatility in global stock markets. In addition, Yellen noted that the US central bank was studying the feasibility of pushing short-term interest rates into negative territory in case the economy needs additional boost. Although Yellen’s comments weren’t themselves that bearish, the market’s reaction was very sharp. Investors have dramatically pushed back the expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes this year. According to the CME, Fed fund futures don’t price in rate hikes this year anymore. In order to find firmer support and recover the dollar needs better data from the US. On Monday American banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day. A lot of important statistical data will be come out on Wednesday: building permits, producer prices, housing starts, industrial production. In addition, the Fed will publish the minutes of its January meeting. Also pay attention to American inflation figures on Friday. Resistance for USD index is at 97.20, 98.50 and 99.00, while support is in the 94.00 area. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20index.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7885 |
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USD/JPY: forecast for February 15-21 Elizabeth Belugina USD/JPY broke to the downside crushing support at 116.00, 115.00 and 114.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven amid falling stock markets, concerns about global growth and central banks’ ability to revive the world economy. Look at the chart. The pair fell to the lowest levels since October 2014. Weekly close below 114.00 will be a very bearish development. Technical picture looks like a reversal. Japanese monetary authorities have already come up with verbal reaction to yen’s appreciation. Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the nation “will act appropriately if that becomes necessary.” The lower USD/JPY goes, the higher is the risk that the Bank of Japan will directly intervene to the market. The intervention risks exists below 115.00. Note though, that intervention will get more likely in case of a really volatile move in USD/JPY, that means if the pair moves more than 300 pips a day. Note that Group of 20 finance leaders will meet at the end of February. This reduces the odds of intervention. If intervention happens, USD/JPY will gain 2-4 big figures, though the effect should be only temporary. Japanese yen is still undervalued and can gain more. The pair is oversold, and may correct higher, but will meet resistance at 115.00 and 116.00. The level of 110.00 is regarded as psychologically important on the downside – here players will expect more from Japanese central bank. Below it there won’t be much of support until 106.50 (38.2% Fibo of the 2012-2015 advance). Japan will release Q4 GDP data early on Monday. Moreover, keep an eye on American data, especially on Wednesday. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...DJPYWeekly.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7886 |
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EUR/USD: forecast for February 15-21 By Elizabeth Belugina EUR/USD rose to 3-month high. The main bullish driver of the single currency was the covering of trades funded in the euro. Data released in the euro area have been relatively weak. The region’s economy rose by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2015, while industrial production fell by 1% in December. The possibility that the ECB will significantly ease policy in March is high, though it is not clear yet whether these measures will work. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak on Monday. Given the recent appreciation of the single currency, Draghi will probably do his best to talk the euro down. As for other events in European economic calendar, watch the release of German and the euro zone’s economic sentiment index on Tuesday. In addition, German Constitutional Court will debate ECB’s OMT ruling. Technically EUR/USD ran into some resistance on approach to 1.1400. Support is at 1.1150 and 1.1050. As for resistance, above 1.1370 it lies at 1.1450 and 1.1500. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...URUSDDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7883 |
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GBP/USD: forecast for February 15-21 By Elizabeth Belugina British pound traded sideways versus its American counterpart during the past week. Data from the UK showed that trade deficit narrowed a bit, but manufacturing production kept declining. Next week there will be more news form Britain. Inflation figures will come out on Tuesday. A block of labor market statistics is due on Wednesday and the UK will release retail sales data on Friday. Despite great volatility in global markets, GBP/USD behaved stable. High at 1.4660 continued limiting the upside. Trading between this level and 1.4350 may continue for another week. Note that global turbulence and low oil prices aren’t particularly good for British pound, so the main scenario is that GBP/USD will ultimately slide towards 1.4200. In case of a break to the upside, next resistance will be at 1.4800. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...BPUSDDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7884 |
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GBP/JPY: sell target - 160.00 17 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone -Next sell target - 160.00 GBP/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 165.00 (former strong support from January, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1, acting as resistance now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave (i)) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse 3 - which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November. GBP/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i)). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7936 |
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GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9720 17 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/CAD broke pivotal support level 1.9900 -Next sell target - 1.9720 GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor (c)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from last December. The active (c)-wave earlier broke the strong pivotal support level 1.9900 (which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the start of December, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.9900 is likely to strengthen the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. The pair is likely to fall further in the active impulse (c)-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.9720 (low of the previous intermediate correction (2) from October and the forecast price for the termination for the active minor ABC correction 2). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7935 |
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GBP/USD: technical analysis 18 February 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H4.png The GBP/USD pair has broken the upward trend. The price started a flat correction from the support line 1.4229. It's likely that the upward movement will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4408. At the same time, there’s a possibility that bears are going to come back to the market afterwards. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got the differently directed movement in a range between a resistance at 1.4346 and a support at 1.4229. It’s likely to see the market falling down towards a support area between the levels 1.4275 - 1.4229 in the short term. If the price starts rising from these levels, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4378. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7947 |
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EUR/USD: technical analysis 18 February 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H4.png The main trend on the EUR/USD pair is a still bullish. There’s the price movement in a range between the 55 Simple Moving Average and the resistance level 1.1214. In the short term we can expect a rise to a resistance area between the levels 1.1214 - 1.1245, but then the market may start a downward correction towards a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H1.png The market has been slightly declining in a range since last Tuesday. It's likely that the pair will go even lower to a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032. Nevertheless, the price might go to a new upward movement afterwards to a resistance at the level 1.1194. https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7946 |
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AUD/JPY: sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00 18 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -AUD/JPY reversed from resistance zone -Next sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00 AUD/JPY recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 82.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the end of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse 3 of the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from last September. AUD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the round support level 80.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 78.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7952 |
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EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.00 18 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -EUR/JPY reversed from resistance level 128.00 -Next sell target - 126.00 EUR/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 128.00 (former support level and the sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair, acting as resistance now – after it was broken by the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i)). The downward reversal from this resistance level completed the latest minor correction (ii) – starting the active impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the longer-term downward impulse waves 3 and (3), as can be seen below. EUR/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 126.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) earlier this month). http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7953 |
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Trading plan for February 19 By Kira Iukhtenko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOsQMQX1r7Q US Dollar turned to be rather strong on Thursday despite all the Fed’s attempts to limit the upside.The greenback was supported by the labor market figures: number of unemployment claims came out below the forecast.On Friday watch the US CPI – according to the official forecast, the base index accelerated to 0.2%. The US currency has potential for more upside. EUR/USD tests the local support at 1.1100, but we need a fix below this mark to find a reason to sell. Next strong support is seen at 1.1040 (55-week MA). Meanwhile, GBP/USD is strengthening ahead of the EU meeting results on Brussels. Will they reach an agreement? Our forecast is “yes”, but it will take a couple of months to formulate the decision. The nervousness will last and keep GBP under selling pressure. We expect the 1.3500 mark to be hit in the coming months. However, in a short term the pair could hit 1.4500 on the upbeat expectations. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7957 |
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EUR/USD: forecast for February 22-28 By Elizabeth Belugina EUR/USD eased down from the 1.1375 area. The minutes of the European Central Bank’s January meeting showed that some policymakers believe that the ECB should act rather sooner than later because of the new risks to economic growth and inflation. The regulator’s president Mario Draghi also underlined the central bank’s readiness to ease policy in March. Yet, the market players don’t seem very convinced that the ECB’s efforts will work, and we see that the euro’s decline is gradual, not abrupt. Resistance at 1.1250 will likely guard the upside. Important support is in the 1.1050/40 area (200-day MA, 55-week MA). If this support is broken, the single currency will fall to 1.0960/00 and even 1.0800. On Monday the euro area will release flash manufacturing and services indexes. On Tuesday watch German Ifo business climate. The region’s final inflation figures will come out on Thursday, while German preliminary CPI is due on Friday. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...USDDaily_1.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7969 |
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USD/JPY: forecast for February 22-28 By Elizabeth Belugina The recovery of USD/JPY stalled ahead of the psychological level of 115.00. The level of 110.00 is an important mark. Here traders will expect more action from the Bank of Japan. Dovish FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that the market has lost faith that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates anytime soon. The pair doesn’t have much strength. It seems that further steps from the Bank of Japan are needed to bring USD/JPY above 115.00 and towards 120.00. The pressure on Japanese central bank to ease policy further increased after data showed that the nation’s economy fell more than expected in Q4: GDP contracted by 1.4% on the annualized basis vs. 0.8% expected. These figures provoke criticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”. Stronger yen is one of the reasons why Japanese economy isn’t feeling particularly good. Another reason is China’s economic slowdown. Next week Japan will release flash manufacturing PMI on Monday and inflation figures on Friday. The market remains concerned about the global economic slowdown. As a result, demand for the yen as a safe haven will continue. We don’t expect any action from the Bank of Japan in the coming days. With G20 meeting, which starts next Friday the situation, may be more stable. It looks like we are seeing a new range of 115.00/110.00 for USD/JPY. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SDJPYDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7970 |
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US Dollar: forecast for February 22-28 Kira Iukhtenko Expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the March meeting declined sharply during the past couple of weeks. Minutes released last week confirmed that the Fed has no plans for a March hike. Course for a gradual policy tightening remain in place, but the market is no longer pricing in a hike in the first half of the year. Despite all that, the US currency remains rather resilient. USD index spent the week above the 96 figure. You may see from the weekly chart that the index pulled from the trend line. It is trying to form a bullish reversal formation these days. We believe the potential for more USD upside is high as the divergence in policies is coming back into the limelight. Anyway, the Fed looks more hawkish than the ECB or the Bank of Japan. Economic calendar for the new week does not include any market turning events, but you should pay special attention to core durable goods data on Thursday and the second GDP estimate on Friday. According to the advance reading, the US economy rose by 0.7% in Q4. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...x%20weekly.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7971 |
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GBP/USD: forecast for February 22-28 Kira Iukhtenko UK currency attempted to recover some ground over the past week, but failed to overcome the 1.4400 mark. UK retail sales surprised the market to the upside, but the fears of Brexit are dominating the scene. Cable fell below 1.4300 on the increased volatility. If the compromise decision will be found, GBP/USD will get the chance to grow towards the 1.4500 mark. However, we recommend selling the pair from these levels. If there is no decision on the table, the British currency will extend the decline on the new week. Break below the 1.4230 mark will open the way for a decline to 1.4080. Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. The only event to watch is the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP on Thursday. According to the preliminary estimates, the economy rose by 0.5% during that period. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...BP%20chart.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7972 |
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GBP/JPY: sell target - 155.00 23 February 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/JPY reached sell target 160.00 -Next sell target - 155.00 GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent breakout of the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 160.00 is expected to further accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) which belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from last November. GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the recently broken price level 160.00. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8002 |
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US Dollar: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6 By Kira Iukhtenko Last week the US Dollar extended the upside for a second week in a row, supported by the strong USD figures. According to the second estimate, the US economy rose by 1% in Q4. What’s more, personal spending and durable goods orders have also shown significant improvement. US dollar index recovered above 98 pips and remains in a bullish channel. Market gained 61.8% Fibonacci from the early 2016 drop in the recent two weeks. Are the bulls retaking control over the market? It’s all not so easy. We have to watch the new range of the economic data on the new week. Strong figures could raise expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in March and boost the US currency. Weak data will disappoint and cap the USD upside. Watch the US manufacturing PMI on Tuesday (forecast – upbeat) and the non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday (forecast – downbeat). On Friday, the markets will focus on the labor market figures. NFP is expected to come at 195K in February (up from the January reading). However, average hourly earnings figure could become a negative factor for the greenback – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2%. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...ex%20daily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8079 |
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GBP/USD: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6 By Kira Iukhtenko British pound fell dramatically last week, breaking below the 1.3900 mark (lowest since 2010). The cable is losing ground amid increased uncertainty about the June referendum outcome. According to the most recent polls, 38% of respondents support the the Brexit, while 37% prefer to stay in the European Union. Bearish momentum in GBP/USD remains strong. There are no fundamental reasons for the market to reverse until we reach 1.3500 (2009 low). The pair is clearly oversold, but the market is now moved more by the market sentiment, then by the technical factors. Local resistance is seen at 1.4080. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...h4%20chart.png Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll watch a block of PMI indices from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the official forecasts, manufacturing and services indices have weakened in February. You should also remember about the US labor market figures on Friday. This is something that could trigger a bullish correction. Average hourly earnings are expected to have declined. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...ly%20chart.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8078 |
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USD/JPY: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6 By Elizabeth Belugina USD/JPY for the second time managed to jump up from 111.00. The advance was triggered by the good US data on Friday – GDP growth for Q4 was revised up, and consumer sentiment was favorable. In Japan industrial production has gained pace, though retail sales once again disappointed. Resistance in the 114.00/115.00 area is strong. Poor risk sentiment is the main reason behind demand for the yen as a safe haven. The outcome of G20 meeting, which may have changed the situation, didn’t impress investors much. On the one hand the policymakers gave a rather good estimate of global economy and finance. On the other hand, there are serious doubts that coordinated action will be taken if necessary. Fiscal stimulus is not planned, so all care on the well-being of the economies will lie on the central banks, in this case on the Bank of Japan. Taking into account the fact that Japanese central bank has few instruments left, the yen might stick to the current levels. As a result, in order to change this negative risk averse picture, the bulls require good data from America and China. This week the US will release PMI and NFP. Also don’t miss Chinese statistics on Tuesday and Thursday. Japanese economic calendar once again doesn’t represent much interest. In the coming days we expect the 114.50/111.00 range to persist. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SDJPYDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8077 |
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EUR/USD: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6 By Elizabeth Belugina EUR/USD made a breakthrough below 1.0960 on Friday (trend line support from December and 50% Fibo). German retail sales increased, but import prices fell – a sign of deflation pressure. Flash inflation figures for February also came out much weaker than expected. Core inflation for February was only 0.7% compared with 1% in January. It means that investors will expect more action from the European Central Bank – weak price growth allows the regulator to ease policy. The single currency will have to feel the pressure ahead of the ECB upcoming meeting next Thursday, March 10. Concerns about potential Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) also affect the euro. This week the euro area’s economic calendar will be light. No changes in the weak region’s final PMIs due on Tuesday are expected. Pay more attention to the US statistics, especially PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday and NFP on Friday. The pair closed the week below 55-week MA (1.1025). Technical picture has turned mildly bearish. The euro will likely slide to 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo) /1.0800. If the negative pressure strengthens, the next level to watch will be 1.0710. Resistance is at 1.1000 and 1.1050. The bulls have to push the price above the latter in order to return the lost powers. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...URUSDDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8076 |
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Forex trading plan for March 1 The meeting of G20 finance ministers brought no big results disappointing the market. The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio in order to calm down the markets and improve sentiment. US data releases were negative on Monday: pending home sales contracted by 2.5% in January, and Chicago PMI came at 47.5 vs. the forecast of 51.2. On Tuesday watch Chinese official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs: these releases will have big impact on the market’s mood. USD/JPY recoiled down from 114.00. Traders bought Japanese currency as a refuge on the back of the falling Asian shares. Support is at 112.00. The pair is expected to maintain sideways trading in the 114.40/111.00 area. AUD/USD has support at 0.7110/00. The currency failed to overcome 200-day MA (0.7265). The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. If 0.7100 holds, Aussie will be able to recover to 0.7200 and 0.7240. Below 0.7100 AUD/USD will fall to 0.7070 and 0.7015. EUR/USD opened with a gap down and then failed to return above the former support at 1.0960. The region’s worse-than-expected inflation data sent the single currency down to 1.0860. On Tuesday the euro area will release final manufacturing PMIs for February. No changes of the weaker data are expected. The focus is on 1.0830/00. After that the next support will be at 1.0710. GBP/USD remained under pressure after it closed below 1.3900 on Friday. The pound was under pressure as polls showed that the “out” vote is becoming grows in popularity. At the same time, GBP/USD is very oversold, but will find resistance at 1.4000 and 1.4080. Support is at 1.3800. British pound looks more vulnerable against Japanese yen. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8082 |
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USD/JPY: candlestick analysis 1 March 2016 Galina Svetlova http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...03usdjpyH4.png There’s a “Bullish Harami” at the last low, so the current correction will probably go higher. It’s likely to see any bearish candle patterns on the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a strong support by the “Window” and previously formed the “Hummer” and “ Tweezers” are still actual. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...03usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low and all last candles are strongly bullish. At the same time, it’s likely that any bearish candle pattern arrives afterwards. If so, the market might go into a local downward correction towards the moving average lines. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8092 |
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EUR/USD: candlestick analysis 1 March 2016 Galina Svetlova http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...03eurusdH4.png The price faced a support at the last “Window” zone, where a “Hammer” was formed previously. It’s likely to see an upward correction towards the level of “Three Methods” pattern and continue the main bearish trend afterwards. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a possible ending of “Thrusting Line” pattern, so the market can go lower to the nearest support line. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...03eurusdH1.png There’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, which entered the price into an upward correction. It’s likely that the price will find a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. Also, here’s a possibility to see a bearish reversal pattern on this line. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8091 |
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GBP/USD: technical analysis 1 March 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H4.png The pair has a downward trend, which faced a support at 1.3878 and the price started a correction afterwards. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so it's likely to see a downward movement to a support area between the levels 1.3834 - 1.3681 until we've got any bullish reversal pattern. If so, the market might start rising towards a resistance area at 1.3931 – 1.3958. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H1.png There's a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The price found a support at 1.3878 and a “Double Bottom” pattern has been formed. Moreover, here’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. It's likely that the pair will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.3958 – 1.4026. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support area under the level 1.3824. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8089 |
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EUR/USD: technical analysis 1 March 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H4.png The market had been falling down since last Friday. The price found a support at 1.0858, which entered the price into a consolidation phase. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge” and a broken up trend, it’s likely to see more selling pressure in the short term. If the pair reaches a support at 1.0809 – 1.0776, it could be a start for a correction towards to a resistance area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0922. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H1.png The price has found a support at 1.0858 on the one-hour chart and a consolidation was started from this level. There’s a possible “Flag” pattern in progress, so it’s likely that the price will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0922. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0809. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8088 |
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GBP/СHF: buy target - 1.4000 1 March 2016 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/СHF reversed from strong support zone -Next buy target - 1.4000 GBP/СHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone surrounding the long-term support level 1.3800 (which also previously reversed the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) in May of 2015, as can be seen from the daily GBP/СHF chart below). This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the strength of the support zone near 1.3800 - GBP/СHF can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4150. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...0(1%20day).png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8095 |
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Forex trading plan for March 2 By Kira Iukhtenko US Dollar gained additional support on Tuesday after the unexpectedly strong US manufacturing PMI release. USD index keeps on rising above the 98 figure and we see space for more USD upside this week. Watch the ADP NFP and crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday. EUR/USD is testing the 1.0850 support, despite the upeat euro zone’s labor market figures. Euro is expected to decline ahead of the ECB March 10th meeting. On Wednesday, pay attention to the euro zone’s PPI – more weakness is expected. We are targeting 1.0500 in the medium term. As we expected, GBP/USD is moving to the downside. Sales were triggered by the weak manufacturing PMI. The pair attempted to recover above 1.4000 earlier in the day, but came under renewed bearish pressure. Next bearish target lies at 1.3830. Watch the UK construction PMI tomorrow (forecast – upbeat). We are targeting 1.3500 in the medium term as the Brexit topic will dominate the headlines in the coming weeks. AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.7100 mark and has potential for more downside. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5%. USD/JPY remains supported, but the greenback is still not too confident to break out of the sideways channel. We need a break above 114.00 to confirm the reversal. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8099 |
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EUR/USD: technical analysis 2 March 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H4.png There's a local downward trend on the four-hour chart, but yesterday we've got a flat, which faced a support at 1.0858. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge”, it’s likely to see more selling presuare towards a support at 1.0809. The market might start rising afterwards to a resistance at 1.0922. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H1.png The price has found a support at the area 1.0858 - 1.0809 on the one-hour chart. An upward correction was started after a “V-Bottom” has been formed. It’s likely that the pair will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0911. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support at 1.0809. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8102 |
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GBP/USD: technical analysis 3 March 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H4.png The price has been rising since a “Triple Bottom” was formed at the last low. The local downward trend has been broken, so it’s likely to see a rise towards a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4172. If we see a pullback from these levels, the market might start falling down towards a support between the levels 1.4042 – 1.3958. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-GBP-H1.png There’s a consolidation in progress along the support 1.4078. Previously, the local downward trend has been broken. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support area between the levels 1.4152 – 1.4167. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the level 1.4018 and the 55 Moving Average line. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8116 |
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EUR/USD: technical analysis 3 March 2016 Sergey Logachev http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H4.png We’ve got a local downward trend on the four-hour chart. Yesterday the price was going up and down in a flat and finally reached a support at 1.0858. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support at 1.0809, but then the market might start rising towards a resistance at 1.0922. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelanc...016-EUR-H1.png The pair has been found a support at 1.0834 and a “V - Top” pattern was formed afterwards, so the market had some reasons to start rising. It's likely that the price will go lower to a support at 1.0809. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance at the downward trend between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0880. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8115 |
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Forex trading plan for March 4 Kira Iukhtenko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3a5ftHslmY Demand for the US Dollar weakened after the weak unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Block of labor market data on Friday is now in focus – these are the figures that will define the further market dynamics ahead of the Fed’s Mach 16 meeting. NFP are expected to come at 195K in February, while the average hourly earnings are forecasted to surprise to the downside. We expect USD to recover some ground ahead of the release. EUR/USD has recovered above 1.0900, but remains in a bearish channel. Strong resistance lies at 1.0950, we expect a break lower from here on Friday. Strong support – local low at 1.0820. GBP/USD is developing a bullish correction and has recovered above 1.4150.This is where 38.2% Fibonaccilies. The bullish momentum remains strong as of now. Daily close above 1.4100 will confirm and inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation.Support is seen at 1.4080 and 1.4040. AUD/USD is developing a bullish trend. However, resistance at 0.7380/90 could limit the upside. USD/JPY turned down to 114.00. The US labor market figures could trigger a new wave of buying. More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8127 |
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USD/JPY: forecast for March 7-13 By Elizabeth Brelugina US labor market data turned out to be mixed. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings declined. As a result, the level of 115.00 (38.2% of February decline) still looks like a hard obstacle. Only a daily fix above this point will return power to the bulls. On the downside, support lies at 113.00, 112.20 ahead of 111.00. In the meantime, the market is starting to expect more action from the Bank of Japan and this is why the pair is trying to stabilize. There’s information that an advocate of aggressive monetary easing may join the central bank’s board at the end of March. The next Bank of Japan’s meeting will be on March 15. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak on Monday. A block of Japanese economic statistics is due on Tuesday. The market’s risk sentiment will also be important for the dynamics of USD/JPY. Chinese National People’s Congress will take place on Saturday. If the nation announces measures to support economy, including fiscal stimulus, the market’s risk appetite will revive reducing demand for the yen as a safe haven. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SDJPYDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8139 |
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EUR/USD: forecast for March 7-13 By Elizabeth Belugina EUR/USD tested 1.0825, but found some support because of the general weakness in the US dollar. The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said this week that the region’s growth and inflation outlook became worse and that the regulator will have to consider these negative developments at March meeting. European inflation turned negative in February: consumer prices fell by 0.2%. As a result, the possibility of more easing from the ECB on March 10 is almost 100%. The main question is how much the ECB will do. Traders are quite sure of a 10-basis-point cut. Other options available to the central bank include technical changes to quantitative easing (QE) program or an increase in monthly QE purchases from the current level of 60 billion euro. It’s clear that larger QE will drag the euro down, while the minor changes won’t be an obstacle for the bulls. In addition, European banks complain that negative interest rates are affecting their profitability, so the ECB may announce a multi-tier deposit rate system. Such step will encourage euro-funded carry trade and, consequently, increase bearish pressure on the euro. In our view, the ECB remembers how it disappointed the market in December when it delivered a too small easing package and will try not to repeat its mistake. The base scenario thus will be to sell the single currency on the event. The euro is vulnerable versus Australian dollar and other higher-yielding commodity currencies. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1165 and 1.1250. Support is at 1.0830 and 1.0710. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...URUSDDaily.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8138 |
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GBP/USD: forecast for March 7-13 Kira Iukhtenko The past week turned to be positive for the UK pound – the pair managed to rebound from the levels below 1.3900 to the levels above 1.4100. However, the bullish move was paused by the mixed US labor market figures on Friday. Technically, the pair is now testing the levels above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What’s more, you may see a clear bullish channel and an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation on the H4 chart. We see potential for a recovery to 1.4250 on the coming week. Key support is seen at 1.4080. UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures on Wednesday. The market will mostly be driven by the Fed’s expectations – we expect them to decline gradually ahead of the coming March 16 policy meeting in the United States. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...3/GBPUSDH4.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8140 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
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US Dollar: forecast for March 7-13 Kira Iukhtenko On Friday, the bunch of mixed US labor market figures shook the markets. US NFP surprised to the upside, while the average hourly earnings came out below the forecast. In the current conditions, the second indicator is more important for the Federal Reserve, so the demand for the US dollar declined after all. Next week we expect the bearish trend for the US Dollar to continue. Traders expect the Fed to reveal concerns on the prospects of the US economy on the March 16th meeting and delay the next step of policy tightening. US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, listen to the FOMC members Brainard and Fisher speaking. On Wednesday, a new portion of the March crude oil inventories data will be released, while on Thursday pay attention to the US unemployment claims. http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Ana...SD%20index.png More: https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8142 |
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