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[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 14-18 December 2015

First, a review of the forecast for the past week:
- the publication of the last forecast for EUR/USD (a further rise and reaching 1.1000-1.1100) made skeptics say that couldn’t be right. Apparently, it could just as well. Already on Thursday, the pair got up to 1.1042 and reached 1.1030 next day, thus ‘scoring a brace’ in football terms;
- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to go up to around 1.5200-1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis pointed out that before rising, the pair might fall to support at 1.5055. In fact, GBP/USD first dropped to 1.4957, which is lower than expected, then it went up as predicted and finished the week at 1.5228;
- the USD/JPY pair defied the majority opinion, which doesn’t always prove right. The analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis had almost unanimously predicted sideways movement for the pair. However, the pair started to fall mid-week, broke through the 122.20 support on Wednesday and reached the low of 120.57 on Friday;
- there was no clarity about USD/CHF. One of the scenarios was a fall to support around 0.9765. The pair did go down but stalled at 0.9800 without hitting the said bottom level.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- most indicators, graphical analysis on H1 and 34% of the experts vote for EUR/USD to continue its upward trend to 1.1100. This is disputed by 66% of the experts, 25% of the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H4. They believe that the pair will move sideways for some time, push off resistance at 1.1000, then break through support at 1.0900 and return to the values of the end of November. The first support is 1.0700, the next one is 100 points lower;
- as for GBP/USD, 80% of the experts believe that the pair will be moving in the side channel within 1.4900-1.5250 with the pivot point at 1.5000. However, most indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 disagree. According to their forecast, the pair will move in two waves, first reaching 1.5440 (followed by a roll down to 1.5300) and then 1.5500. Considering upcoming Christmas holidays, the end of the second wave can be expected in January;
- when drawing USD/JPY’s future movement, all indicators point downwards. Most analysts believe that 120.00 will be a very strong support level, bouncing off which the pair will go to resistance at 122.20 and possibly even higher to 123.20;
- all indicators on H4 show a fall for USD/CHF but on larger timeframes (D1 and W1) two-thirds of the indicators already point upward. As for the analysts, 30% reckon that USD/CHF hasn’t yet reached the bottom of 0.9650-0.9675. At the same time, 87% of the analysts agree that in the longer term, the pair should return to values above 1.0000. Thus, graphical analysis on D1 gives the pair two weeks to make it to 1.0250, with adjustments for the holiday season.

All forecasts may be subject to change as important economic data are released in the middle of the coming week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 21-25 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the scenario for EUR/USD, backed by most analysts and the minority of the indicators, started to pan out. The pair spent some time in a sideways trend, broke through support at 1.0900 and went down. However, that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the pair didn’t reach support at 1.0700, stopping 150 points higher;
- the experts suggested that GBP/USD would be moving in a sideways channel of 1.4900-1.5250. It did happen – the pair pushed off the top boundary of the channel on Monday, went down decisively and came to a standstill at the bottom boundary of 1.4893 Friday night;
- the analysts were right about USD/JPY. In their opinion, the level of 120.00 was supposed to become very strong support, pushing off which the pair was to surge to resistance at 122.20 and then to 123.20. The latter level was reached on Friday thanks to the Bank of Japan's decision about its interest rate;
- there were varied opinions regarding USD/CHF again – some experts and indicators voted for a rise while others for a fall. The pair did just that – first, it went up a little, then dropped, then rose again and ended up 100 points higher in one week, although it doesn’t qualify yet as a full-on upward reversal.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- most experts, with the indicators staying neutral, continue to insist on EUR/USD’s return to the values of the second half of November. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 elaborates that the pair may first try to break resistance at 1.0900 but after one or two unsuccessful attempts it will go down to support at 1.0700. The next support is 100 points lower;
- as for GBP/USD, all indicators clearly point downward. Being aware of the upcoming Christmas holidays unlike the indicators, the analysts predict the pair will transition into a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point. Graphical analysis on D1 supports them and indicates further bearish sentiment;
- the experts and graphical analysis on H4 reckon that USD/JPY will move sideways within 120.30-122.20. At the same time, the indicators on H4 and D1 point to the bears’ upper hand and insist that the pair won’t be able to break even the first resistance at 121.70;
- the general forecast for USD/CHF remains the same – back to around 1.0000. The experts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis agree with this. The immediate target is resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is around 1.0150, support remains at 0.9800.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 28-31 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- graphical analysis warned that EUR/USD would first try to break through resistance around 1.0900 and go down after a couple of unsuccessful attempts. The chart shows that there were three such attempts actually, and one of them appeared to almost reach the target. However, all the efforts ended up futile, and the pair saw Christmas at 1.0950 resistance;
- the analysts were right saying that GBP/USD would enter a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point and bearish sentiment at the beginning of the week. The forecast panned out – a brief clash between the bears and the bulls around the pivot point was decisively won by the former, and the pair crashed by 100 points. However, it quickly returned to the pivot point and rose even higher – to the top boundary of the said corridor;
- the forecast for USD/JPY proved correct. As expected, the bears won in this case. The pair couldn’t even break through the first resistance at 121.70 and went down to the bottom boundary of the corridor at 120.30 where it stayed until market closure;
- the USD/CHF pair gave the impression that Swiss bankers closed down for the holidays – the pair went neither up nor down but remained at the pivot point of the past 3 weeks, i.e. 0.9900.

Forecast for the Coming Week
It has to be noted that all analysts are off for the holidays, and thus forecasts will be based on graphical and technical analysis for the time being:
- as for EUR/USD, all indicators on H4 and 72% of them on D1 point strictly upward. The remaining indicators and graphical analysis, supported by the bears, persistently push the pair down. The end of the week will show which scenario is right. However, the pair is quite likely to stay within 1.0800-1.1000 till the end of 2015;
- graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on H4 as well as 17% of the indicators on D1 point to GBP/USD’s rise to resistance at 1.5040. The rest of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to support at 1.4740 with strong resistance at 1.4930. As the week starts precisely from this level, it should be clearer on Monday which of the trends will prevail in the coming days;
- all indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 indicates that the pair will try to recover last week’s losses – first, it will return to resistance at 121.15, then rebound to support at 120.25 and again go up to 121.45;
- according to graphical analysis, 0.9850 will become support for USD/CHF. The pair will move up from there – first to 1.0000 and then to its main target of 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. The indicators differ here, though – all of them on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for USD/CHF’s fall. If the pair drops below the support level of 0.9850, it will hit the bottom around 0.9800 very quickly.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 4-8 January 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- despite the differences between the indicators and graphical analysis, it was suggested that EUR/USD would hold out in the range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 until the very end of 2015. The forecast panned out as the pair rose to 1.0990 on Monday and dropped to 1.0850 on 31 December 2015;
- there were differing opinions about GBP/USD as well. With that, 50% of the indicators on H4 and 83% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claimed that 1.4930 would be too strong of resistance and the pair would go down to support at 1.4740. This forecast also proved 100% correct – GBP/USD went down at once and saw in the new year at 1.4733;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25-121.45. It did transpire, although the oscillations were not as large as expected – the pair bounced off the said support range a few times but never managed to get over 120.65;
- graphical analysis indicated that 0.9850 would become support for USD/CHF and the pair would move up from there to the landmark of 1.0000, which worked out 100%.

For a second week in a row, only technical and graphical analysis has been used for the forecasts as all leading analysts are still on holidays. However, the review above shows that one may do without their advice just as well – the precision of the forecasts only improves :)

Forecast for the upcoming week:
- as for EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on the daily interval confidently show that the pair will continue to fall to support at 1.0515 or somewhat further to the March low of 1.0450. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair can briefly rise to resistance at 1.0900;
- graphical analysis on all time frames indicates that early in the week GBP/USD should rise to 1.4800 and then by another 100-150 points. After this, the pair will move downward to last April’s low of 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January;
- for USD/JPY, both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 imply some advantage for the bears. According to their readings, the pair will continue to move down but insignificantly – to support at 119.70. The main resistance will be 120.40;
- all indicators point upwards for USD/CHF. Graphical analysis predicts the pair will rise to 1.0070 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 11-15 January 2016

First, about the forecast for the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fully implemented during the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis, the pair first rose to resistance at 1.0900 and then went down, losing 200 points quite quickly. After that, considering the situation on stock markets, the pair returned to 1.0925, recovering the same 200 points;
- it was assumed that after a certain rise, GBP/USD should reach a low of 1.4555 by mid-January. Nonetheless, this happened a week earlier as the pair arrived there last Friday;
- the forecast for USD/JPY turned out correct only in terms of the trend direction. Both indicators and graphical analysis implied some advantage for the bears but no one expected that it would be so big – instead of the expected 70-100 points, the dollar lost all 300 points;
- the prediction for USD/CHF was also 100% correct in regards to the trend direction. The pair was supposed to rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. However, developments on stock markets sharply increased the pair’s volatility, and, as a result, it was able to get up to 1.0123 and then went down to support at 0.9923.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- on their return from holidays, the analysts predict a sideways trend for EUR/USD in a 1.0750-1.1000 range. Graphical analysis on H1 agrees with this, predicting first a rebound from the upper boundary, a drop and again a return to the upper levels of the range. On larger timeframes, graphical analysis of D1 and 67% of the indicators on W1 continue to insist on the pair's drop at least to around 1.0450-1.0515 within 10-14 days;
- it’s quite clear that all indicators point downward for GBP/USD. However, graphical analysis on all timeframes and most experts agree that the pair has already reached its local bottom and will be oscillating around a 1.4500 pivot point during the week. The main support is at 1.4450, resistance – 1.4600;
- according to the analysts and the readings of graphical analysis, the USD/JPY pair has also hit its local low and is expected to enter a sideways trend in a 117.20-119.50 range. The pivot point will be at 117.90, and, in line with graphical analysis on H4, the pair should rise over this level in the first half of the week and drop to last Friday’s values by the end of the week;
- the scenario of the second half of December may replay for USD/CHF. At least, it’s echoed by the analysts as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. According to this forecast, the pair will be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. In the short run, graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to rebound from support at 0.9920 and move to resistance at 1.0015, after which the pair should go down again, bounce off the said support level and try to break through resistance in an effort to reach 1.0050.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016

For starters, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary;
- in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall;
- the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one;
- on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of 1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month;
- the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target;
- according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this;
- last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

The International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT) has announced the IAFT Awards winners for 2015. NordFX has been voted Best Broker of Asia.
The selection went for a month from 1st to 30th December 2015, and every visitor of the awards website could vote for leaders of the Forex industry in 17 categories.
We’re very thankful to all traders and experts for the trust and support extended to NordFX! We’ll certainly continue to maintain our high standards and improve the quality of service for our clients in Asia and other regions.

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 25-29 January 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true;
- the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362;
- the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October;
- there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December;
- the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550;
- the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low;
- last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 1-5 February 2016

First, about last week’s predictions:
- EUR/USD once again proved that the majority opinion may be wrong. The pair’s bullish sentiment was supported by only 25% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 but it is they who turned out to be right – straight from the market opening, the pair went up sharply and then, as predicted, plunged as sharply almost to the level of the start of the week;
- a third of the experts talked about GBP/USD’s rise to 1.4550 while another third supported a transition into a sideways trend in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. The weekly chart shows that both groups were right as the pair stayed in this corridor all five days, occasionally attempting to break its upper boundary and reach the target height. However, none of these attempts succeeded, and the pair ended up near the level of the start of the week;
- there are times when all forecasts, including alternative ones, prove incorrect. This is what happened when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced a negative interest rate policy for the first time, which resulted in the yen’s fall against all 16 major currencies. The USD/JPY pair needed just 1 day (29 January) to return to the level around which it had revolved during the past year;
- two weeks ago, the immediate target for USD/CHF was a rise to 1.0250. Last week, graphical analysis lowered it to 1.0210, which it shouldn’t have done as the pair easily reached 1.0255 on Friday, countering the rush to change forecasts.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the views of scores of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- opinions on EUR/USD once again turned out quite unanimous – 60% of the analysts, 100% of the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis at D1 vote for a fall to 1.0700 at least. With that, the pair may first rebound to resistance at 1.0990, then return to support at 1.0800, break through it and drop to 1.0700 and then further down to support at 1.0560;
- as for GBP/USD, 100% of the indicators look downward. However, the analysts differ. The indicators’ readings are supported by only 12% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair will go down gradually to support at 1.4120. A sideways trend is backed by 38% of the experts. Graphical analysis on D1 and the remaining 50% of the experts reckon that GBP/USD will rebound further upward, trying to reach 1.4630. With this, graphical analysis indicates that after the rebound the pair will return to the current level of 1.4240 by the end of February;
- the decision by the Bank of Japan left graphical analysis and most experts perplexed. At the same time, 25% of the experts and 90% of the indicators insist USD/JPY should continue to rise up to 122.30-123.00, and only one analyst believes that the pair will return to January’s main support of 116.50;
- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that USD/CHF will be moving in a 1.0200-1.0310 sideways channel for some time. However, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to support at 0.9920 and then enter a sideways corridor of 0.9920-1.0080. In the longer term, 40% of the analysts believe that 1.0310 is not the limit and the pair may rise to 1.0500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 8-12 February 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- initially everything was going according to plan for EUR/USD – it rebounded to resistance at 1.0990 but then, instead of reversing and going down, it soared up to the values of last September-October. The reason for that was simply comments by US Federal Reserve official William Dudley who expressed doubts about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2016;
- Mr. Dudley’s remarks helped the 50% of the experts who, backed by graphical analysis on D1, reckoned that GBP/USD would continue to move up to 1.4630. The pair reached this level on Wednesday and, as expected, went down, finishing the week around 1.4500;
- after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate policy, most experts were at a loss. Only one analyst believed that USD/JPY would return to the main support of January – 116.50, which happened, again thanks W. Dudley’s comments;
- graphical analysis on D1 insisted that USD/CHF should go down to support at 0.9920, and it did, mirroring EUR/USD’s movement.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the shorter term, the indicators and graphical analysis on H1 point to EUR/USD entering a sideways trend in a 1.1250-1.1220 range. As the previous week showed, all major currency pairs’ movements will certainly depend a lot on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this Wednesday. After the speech, EUR/USD may rise to 1.1350. However, over 70% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that the market has almost recovered after the bad news from the Federal Reserve, and the pair should return to 1.0400-1.0600 in the next couple of weeks;
- the experts' opinions split almost 50/50 in regards to GBP/USD. According to the indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the pair will be moving in a horizontal 1.4400-1.4545 channel in the near future. In the longer term, 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predict a rise to resistance at 1.4900. However, 60% of the experts don’t agree with this, insisting that the pair should fall and get to 1.4220 by the end of February;
- after USD/JPY nosedived last week, it’s clear that all indicators point downward. Considering the ‘war’ of interest rates between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the experts seem unable to reach a consensus – 35% are for a fall, another 35% are for a rise, and the rest 30% are for a sideways trend in a 116.40-118.25 range;
- the analysts are undecided about USD/CHF. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair will first go up to 0.9980, then fall to support at 0.9800, after which it is expected to rise to resistance at 1.0124 and return to around 1.025-1.032.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 15-19 February 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out 100% – the pair remained in a sideways trend until mid-week, then, after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech, it broke through resistance at 1.1250 and rose to 1.1350. On achieving this, the pair reverted to 1.1250, turning it into support;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was that the pair would be moving in a 1.4400-1.4545 horizontal channel all week long. That actually happened – the pair stayed between 1.4380 support and 1.4560 resistance for all five days;
- it appeared impossible to make an intelligible prediction for USD/JPY as the experts’ opinions were split almost equally. In fact, the indicators and those who foresaw a further spectacular nosedive proved right. In two weeks, the pair plunged from 121.70 to the bottom of 111.00, i.e. by over 1,000 points, and reached the level of October 2014;
- last week, the analysts were at a loss regarding USD/CHF. The indications of graphical analysis were only partially correct. As expected, at the beginning of the week the pair approached 0.9980, then went down and quickly reached support at 0.9800. After that, instead of rebounding, USD/CHF moved further down, touched the bottom at 0.9660 and only then returned to 0.9800.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- as for EUR/USD, 65% of the experts and the indicators on D1 talk about a continuing uptrend. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair may go up to 1.1400 during the week and only then move down. The remaining 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 expect the pair to fall within the next five days. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates that EUR/USD may stay in a sideways corridor of 1.1225-1.1320 for a day or two at the beginning of the week and then go down to the first support at 1.1150 and then even lower to 1.1030;
- according to graphical analysis, GBP/USD will first bounce to support at 1.4365 and then return to the upward trend that started in the last decade of January. The target is 1.4670. Both 60% of the analysts and the indicators on H1, H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. In the longer term, most experts tend to believe that the pair will again test the bottom of 1.4100;
- obviously the indicators haven’t yet come around after USD/JPY’s crash of the last two weeks. According to most experts and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its rebound up to resistance at 115.60;
- opinions about USD/CHF are split rather evenly – 40% of the experts are for a rise, 35% are for a fall and 25% are for a sideways trend. A similar pattern is observed with the indicators – a rise on H1, a fall on D1 and a compromise midway on H4 supporting neutral movement. Graphical analysis shows a further upward trend – on H4, the support line of the channel passes through the points of 0.9660 and 0.9720, and the resistance line passes through 0.9755 and 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 22-26 February 2016

First, about the forecast for the previous week:
- as for EUR/USD, 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 were correct in their forecast that the pair would fall in the last five workdays. As predicted, the pair reached the first support at 1.1150 and then tried to reach the second support at 1.1030 but halfway through it reversed and finished the week at 1.1131;
- the GBP/USD pair’s drop was greater than expected. After breaking through support at 1.4365, the pair fell to 1.4245 and entered a 1.4245-1.4395 sideways channel with a 1.4310 Pivot Point;
- after the crash that started 1 February, the experts hoped that USD/JPY would rebound at least to 115.60 but it couldn’t even reach 115.00. The pair froze at 114.87 for half an hour and moved down again, finishing the week even lower than at the beginning of the week – around 112.55;
- the forecast for USD/CHF by graphical analysis and 40% of the analysts turned out to be totally correct. The pair continued to move upward to 0.9967, took a break and went down to support at 0.9890.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the next 2-3 days, EUR/USD can rise a bit and reach resistance at 1.2222 as proposed by graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H1 and H4. In the longer term, the number of supporters of a downtrend grows in proportion to the time interval. Thus, in the weekly timeframe 55% of the experts vote for a fall, in the monthly timeframe it is already 65%, and in the quarterly one it’s 78%. Graphical analysis paints quite an apocalyptic picture on D1 – in the next 2-3 weeks, the pair may totally crash, hitting the bottom at 1.0500;
- as for GBP/USD, 40% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate that now the pair is at the top boundary of a 1.4200-1.4400 channel, along which it will be moving all week. This is echoed by 33% of the indicators on H4 and 75% of them on D1. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that end of this week or early next week, GBP/USD will break through the top boundary of the channel, turn resistance into support and continue its sideways trend in a 1.4400-1.4620 range with a 1.4500 pivot point;
- according to 60% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis, USD/JPY will continue to fall at least to 110.70 (the next support is at 110.00) and then bounce up first to the current level of 112.55 and afterwards higher, the target being 115.00;
- about 70% of the experts tend to believe that USD/CHF will rise first to the key level of 1.0000 and then up to 1.0200. Graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 show that before rising, the pair may spend some time in a 0.9830-0.9930 sideways trend with prevailing bearish sentiment.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 29 February - 4 March 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the vast majority of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predicted a fall for EUR/USD, which happened, and the pair shed more than 200 points during the week;
- the prediction of 40% of the experts and graphical analysis that GBP/USD should bounce down from resistance at 1.4400 proved right. However, under the influence of the news about the UK’s EU membership referendum, instead of entering a sideways trend, the pair easily broke support at 1.4200 and crashed, finishing the week around the lows of 2001 and 2009;
- the forecast for USD/JPY panned out almost 100%. According to it, the pair was supposed to go down to support at 110.70, then shoot up to 112.55 and then even higher, ultimately targeting 115.00. In reality, the pair fell to 111.04, reversed upward, tested resistance at 112.55, broke through it on the second try, turning it into support, and soared up to 114.00;
- graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 were right about USD/CHF moving in a sideways channel for some time. At the same time, in line with the general trend to regain its position above 1.0000, the pair made several attempts to break through the top boundary of the channel, and it was able to consolidate just above 0.9960 by Friday evening.

Forecast for Coming Week
Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the forecast for EUR/USD for March remains unchanged – first, the pair should break through support at 1.0800 and then at 1.0700, reach the bottom around 1.0500 and try to recover losses by returning to the current level of 1.0930. This scenario is supported by 54% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. As for the coming week, 70% of the analysts expect the pair to bounce up and temporarily return to 1.1066-1.1150. The remaining experts are split evenly – 15% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend;
- all the indicators on H4 and D1 point downward for GBP/USD. The analysts’ opinions are divided, with the bulls having an edge – 50% vote for a rise and 40% for a drop. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, in the next few weeks, the pair will still try to reach the low of 2009 at 1.3500, after which it will return to resistance at 1.4080. With this said, graphical analysis on H1 elaborates that before going downward, the pair may rise a bit and reach 1.3910;
- in their attempt to predict USD/JPY’s movement, both experts and indicators are quite neutral, with somewhat bullish sentiment. Graphical analysis agrees with them overall – USD/JPY should first rise to 114.50 (or even to 115.00) and only then go down to support at 112.55;
- as for USD/CHF, 65% of the experts tend to believe that after reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair will rebound to another strong level of 0.9800 and only then move up again to 1.0200-1.0300. This is echoed by the indicators and graphical analysis, the latter drawing support 100 points higher at 0.9900.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 7-11 March 2016

For starters, an overview of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD can be counted as fulfilled. Executing the suggested monthly scenario, the pair first tried to break support at 1.0800, failed to do it and moved on to the weekly scenario. According to most experts’ predictions, the pair bounced upward and reached 1.1043 on Friday following the news from the USA;
- as for GBP/USD, those 50% of the experts who had voted for the pair’s rise were right. Although, graphical analysis on H1 supporting them had underestimated the bulls’ power – the pair quickly turned resistance at 1.3910 into support, rebounded off it and got to resistance at 1.4248 by the end of the week;
- the experts and the indicators were neutral in their forecasts for USD/JPY and were quite right. The pair finished the week exactly at the same level it had started from. With a little tolerance, graphical analysis was also correct setting the boundaries of the side channel as 112.55 and 114.50;
- the experts suggested that on reaching the key level of 1.0000, USD/CHF would drop to 0.9800. Graphical analysis agreed elaborating that support could be 100 points higher and proved right – after going down, the pair never managed to drop below a 0.9880-0.9910 resistance zone.


Forecast for Coming Week
Generalizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various types of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the experts are surprisingly unanimous about EUR/USD this time. Most of them (65%) vote for a downtrend both on the weekly and monthly intervals. Graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agrees with them, clarifying that the pair should first descend to around 1.0910, after which it can bounce back to the current level of 1.1010 and enter a sideways trend for some time. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show larger fluctuations – a fall to 1.0710 and a rise to last February’s high of 1.1340;
- there’s unanimity among the analysts regarding GBP/USD. On the weekly and monthly intervals, 60% of them vote for a fall, 30% for a sideways trend and only 10% for a rise. It’s obviously a different story with the indicators – on H1, all of them point to a rise; on H4, their number is 83% and it’s just 50% on D1. Graphical analysis draws a 1.4070-1.4375 side channel whereas first, the pair may fluctuate in a narrower range from 1.4150 to 1.4250;
- according to the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend within 113.00-114.50 at the beginning of the week. Only about 20% of the analysts support this. Their overwhelming majority believes that the pair should rise and try to reach 116.00-116.50 while just one analyst expects another fall to support at 111.00;
- most experts (55%) stick with the view that USD/CHF should make it to support at 0.9800 after all. Then it should reverse upwards, break the defence line of 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200 within a month. Graphical analysis agrees with this overall, adjusting support 50 points up at 0.9850.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 14-18 March 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was unfolding more or less according to plan till the middle of Thursday – the pair first went down, then rebounded, set two boundaries of the corridor and entered a sideways trend. Specifically on 10 March, following the announcement about the ECB’s decision on interest rates, the pair fell to 1.0821 but then ECB Head Mario Draghi turned the market opinion about and the pair soared by 500 points to 1.1217. Nonetheless, EUR/USD still stayed within the 1.0710-1.1340 channel set by the indicators and graphical analysis on D1;
- the forecast for GBP/USD provided by graphical analysis was the most precise – at the beginning of the week, the pair was supposed to be oscillating in the range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, then rise and reach 1.4375. All this happened for the most part – until Thursday, the pair moved in a 1.4132-1.4275 channel, then went up and finished the week around 1.4380;
- for USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on all timeframes pointed to a further sideways trend within a 113.00-114.50 range. In reality, the pair did continue to move in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the amplitude of its fluctuations was slightly greater than the predicted 12.22-114.44. With that, USD/JPY once again finished the week exactly where it had started – at 113.80;
- for two weeks in a row, the experts insisted that USD/CHF should reach the 0.9800 support, which the pair finally did last Thursday.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- in their forecasts for EUR/USD, 75% of the experts, graphical analysis and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 rely on the idea that the ‘magic’ of Mario Draghi’s words will last another week at least, and the pair will thus rise even more – to 1.1200-1.1240. Some of the more radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February’s highs near 1.1350. As for the monthly forecast, almost the same 75% of the experts already speak about a drop to around 1.0800-1.1000. In the meantime, 1.1080 can be considered the strongest support level;
- the experts are unanimous about GBP/USD – 75% of them, supported by the indicators, believe that the pair should reach resistance at 1.4500. Graphical analysis elaborates that the pair will briefly stay at this level and, on breaking support at 1.4370, will first go down to 1.4250-1.4370 for some time and then drop more – to support at 1.4120. This scenario is backed by 65% of the analysts;
- there is no agreement among the experts nor the indicators regarding USD/JPY. About half of them are for a rise while the other half are for a fall. As a result, a sideways channel in a range from 111.00 to 114.50 with a 113.25 pivot point is probable. In the longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will move up to 117.00; 30% propose a drop to 110.00, and the rest 10% aren’t certain;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is 65% of the experts and 95% of the indicators suggest the pair’s fall to support at 0.9700-0.9750, after which it will resume breaking through 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

On 11 March 2016, IAIR Awards held a ceremony in Hong Kong in honor of its winners for 2016. NordFX was recognized as Broker of the Year / Forex Trading India.
IAIR Awards’ motivation for selecting NordFX is – “For consistently meeting the strictest standards of financial stability and proper handling and security of client funds within a transparent, sincere and productive operating structure. Through the offer of the most popular financial instruments trading software, NordFX makes trading more comfortable, convenient and effective for all customers.”
We’re very thankful for this acknowledgement of our efforts and the quality of our services. NordFX always sets as its top priority to provide consistently stable and profitable trading conditions for our customers in India, Asia at large as well as other parts of the world.

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 21-25 March 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD proved 100% correct. The main support was set at 1.1080, and the suggested peak for the pair’s rise was at 1.1350. In fact, from Monday to Wednesday, the pair relied on support around 1.1060-1.1080, and then on the news from the USA, it moved up reaching 1.1342, as expected;
- although GBP/USD finally reached the forecast resistance level of 1.4500, it did so only after it dropped considerably, breaking through all the expected support levels and rebounding from a 1.4052 bottom;
- in the forecast for USD/JPY, the 50% of the experts supporting a fall turned out to be right. The pair did drop, made it to support at 111.00, as predicted by the experts, and finished the week at 111.52;
- the USD/CHF pair was supposed to go down to support at 0.9700, which happened. The pair even overdid it a bit – it dropped 50 points going down to 0.9650 and entered a sideways trend, carefully sticking to the 0.9700 area just as the analysts had said.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the experts' opinions about EUR/USD are divided – about 40% of them are for a rise, another 40% are for a fall, and the remaining 20% support a sideways trend. As for the indicators, 75% of them on H4 and 100% on D1 point upwards. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with it, setting the target as last August’s high of 1.1700. With this, according to graphical analysis on H4, before starting to rise, EUR/USD may bounce off resistance at 1.1380 and fall to 1.1130. In the longer term, most analysts still tend to believe the pair will go down at least to 1.0500 in the next few months;
- according to graphical analysis and 55% of the experts, GBP/USD may first move in a 1.4360-1.4650 sideways channel for several days and then drop sharply to 1.4230. The long-term forecast, supported by 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1, suggests the pair should fall even more attempting to reach 1.3840, the low of the end of last February;
- it’s obvious that the indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, most analysts and graphical analysis on D1 reckon that the pair has almost reached its bottom and will be moving in a 110.00-113.00 sideways channel for some time;
- graphical analysis on H4 and 70% of the experts insist that USD/CHF should rise at least to resistance at 0.9850, with the ultimate target of moving above the key level of 1.0000. Support remains at 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 28 March - 1 April 2016

First, an overview of last week’s forecast:
- regarding EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts that predicted a fall were right. The forecast of graphical analysis on H4 also turned out correct, indicating that last week’s bottom would be around 1.1130. On Thursday, the pair almost reached this level, stopping at 1.1143;
- the forecasts about GBP/USD’s sharp drop panned out 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower boundary of the sideways channel – at 1.4360, broke through it and plunged to support at 1.4230. Then, trying to reach last February’s lows, it went even further down to 1.4080;
- the analysts and graphical analysis claimed that USD/JPY had reached its bottom and therefore should bounce upwards to 113.00, which happened. The pair wrapped up the week at 113.03;
- the USD/CHF pair was predicted to rise to 0.9850. The pair was just short of it when it got to 0.9786 on Friday. Thus, this forecast can be considered as fulfilled at least by 90%.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- this week will be filled with releases of various important economic data. Perhaps, that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the pair’s rise and transition to 1.1340-1.1470. The rest of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4, on the other hand, point to a possible fall to 1.1055. In this case, there may be a slight rise to resistance at 1.1220 before the fall;
- according to the analysts, the prospects for GBP/USD seem quite ambiguous – 40% of the analysts are for a rise, about the same number are for a drop and 20% predict a sideways trend. However, the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 clearly point down. With this, GBP/USD may go up slightly to 1.4170-1.4240, then it should move downwards – first to support at 1.4070, then to 1.3970 and further down to last February’s lows around 1.3850;
- the experts’ opinions about USD/JPY are split almost equally. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show a sideways channel with two scenarios for the boundaries – fluctuations around 112.30-113.50 on H4 and around 110.70-114.00 on D1 with gradual consolidation near support. In the longer term, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to USD/JPY’s subsequent sharp rebound from the lower boundary up to 117.00, which may happen in the second half of April;
- there is nothing new for USD/CHF – 65% of the experts, graphical analysis and 70% of the indicators on H4 predict a rise first to resistance at 0.9880 and then further to 1.0100. Support is still at 0.9650 like last week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Forex Forecast for 4-8 April 2016

Overview of last week’s predictions:
- in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;
- all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;
- technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60;
- USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.

Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;
- the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;
- the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;
- about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around 1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals for March 2016
Overview by NordFX Expert

The MQL5 Signals service integrated into the MetaTrader platform is becoming more and more popular as it allows even amateurish investors to collect profits by automatically copying experienced traders’ signals. It takes just a few clicks to subscribe to one or more such signals. On its face, it looks as easy as it can get. However, practice shows that in pursuit of grand profits, subscribers rather often fail to assess risks correctly. To help to avoid such mistakes, we regularly publish ratings of the most sought-after signals, complementing them with comments by a professional – NordFX leading analyst John Gordon.
The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for March 2016 is presented below.
I. Green Line Signals (increase 668%, 296 subscribers),
II. Pound Aussie Real (increase 855%, 274 subscribers),
III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (increase 49%, 225 subscribers),
IV. Magic profits (increase 14133%, 180 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (increase 1300%, 126 subscribers),
IV. Geylani (increase 81%, 112 subscribers),
VII. LidziyaForex (increase 113%, 89 subscribers),
VIII. George Soros (increase 1986%, 76 subscribers),
IX. HnGcg (increase 58%, 75 subscribers),
X. Night Hunter (increase 313%, 73 subscribers).
Six of the current leading signal providers were in the February top 10 as well. They are:
- Green Line Signals jumped from the 5th place to number one;
- Pound Aussie Real went up to the 2nd place from the 4th in February;
- MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 kept its 3rd position;
- Magic profits swapped the 8th place for the 4th in March.
Two signals, on the contrary, lost positions – LidziyaForex forfeited the top place and dropped to the 7th while HnGcg moved to the 9th place from the 6th.
“I’ll begin the overview with two signals from the March and February top lists, – says the NordFX leading analyst. – Last month, I was surprised by LidziyaForex’s popularity among the subscribers who had invested over a million dollars in it. I also urged to evaluate all risks before signing up for this signal provider.
The fact is that this signal has been around only since last December and its maximum drawdown is as much as 57%. Analysis of the trades has shown that most often the provider simply waits for a losing position to become winning and locks in losses only in an emergency.
Unfortunately, my worst fears got confirmed in March – a 45% loss is a serious financial blow for the subscribers. Those who signed up early are actually lucky as they are still sitting on profits while those who subscribed over the last few weeks lost almost half of their investments. As a result, three quarters of the subscribers unfollowed LidziyaForex. Moreover, the signal provider seems to have thrown in the towel too by announcing that as of 1 May, the signal would cease to exist.
With this, I have a déjà vu feeling about March’s new leader Green Line Signals – it reminds me of LidziyaForex that much. Consider: the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%.
Nevertheless, subscriber feedback about this signal is mostly positive, which can be explained by impressive growth – about 700% in three months. Still, it’s not all that great as it may sound: +220% in January, ¬+96% in February and slightly more than 25% in March. It’s called the reverse martingale, a strategy when the trader boldly builds up the initial deposit amount but then starts reducing risks gradually, so profits drop too consequently. Time will tell whether I’m right in this case.
In terms of stable profits, it’s worth mentioning the signal Magic profits. It’s about 3.5 years old, and it’s some assurance of reliability. The ratio of winning and losing months is 40 to 1, average growth is 10-20% a month, and the only loss was under 10%. Hence, such a remarkable result. Subscribers don’t need to be concerned by quite a large number of trades – about 180 a week. The signal provider averages positions and opens series of orders with a small lot size. What’s not so good about Magic profits is its maximum drawdown of 58%. It’s easy to reduce risks here – go to the trading terminal settings and reduce maximum deposit load for signal copying. Naturally, profits will get smaller but it makes sense in this case. For example, by reducing the load to 50%, the subscriber can count on 130-210% in profits per year with a possible drawdown of about 30%. Quite decent figures, in fact.
Out of the newcomers, the signal Q2FX is interesting in terms of the growth to drawdown ratio – 1,300% growth in 7 months and a 10% drawdown. Its trading results indicate that here a grid expert advisor may be used that opens lots of pending orders while averaging positions.
Night Hunter is reasonably good too – growth of 313% in a year and a half, with a 40% drawdown. In this case, though, the correlation of deposits of the provider and the subscriber has to be taken into account, otherwise the $30 subscription may turn this signal into a losing one.
This doesn’t concern the following three signals – MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842, HnGcg and Geylani. I suppose it’s because of free subscriptions that they got into the top 10, considering that their trading results aren’t off the charts.
Finally, George Soros is noteworthy due to the fact that it lies in the 8th place in the subscribers’ ratings and in the 2nd place in the ratings by MetaQuotes, the developer of MT4 and MT5. The signal has been yielding rather stable profits for almost a year. The biggest drawdown of 36% happened last December. In the first 3 months of 2016, the signal produced 90% growth with a drawdown under 20%.”
John Gordon sums up, “In conclusion, I’d like to remind that before subscribing to a signal, it’s important to carefully study online monitoring data, assess potential risks and set maximum deposit load and maximum loss in the trading terminal settings. All this will make you feel much more confident as a passive investor.”

[Julia]

New conditions of the Affiliate Program

Dear Partners and Customers,
Thank you for being part of the NordFX Affiliate Program! We are pleased to announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.
The basic commissions increase as follows:
• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
VIP partners get even more attractive terms:
• For “Micro” – commission 50% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – commission 40%!
Current NordFX partners will be transferred to the new conditions automatically.
The updated terms and the revised Partner Agreement can be viewed in detail on the website Forex | Forex Trading | Nordfx.com.
We trust that you will see value in such a major improvement of the partner conditions and considerably increase your revenues from the NordFX Affiliate Program.

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD suggested that the battle line for the bulls and the bears would be drawn at 1.1400. However, the fact that they were actually equal in force was a surprise. As a result, neither of them could gain the upper hand and the week started and ended at the same level of 1.1400;
- the forecast that GBP/USD will be moving towards last February’s lows is starting to pan out. Last Wednesday, the pair sharply reached 1.4000 but, as expected, it quickly returned to the sideways channel, in which it has been moving for the last three weeks;
- the predictions for USD/JPY turned out incorrect. The pair reached the 110.70 support very fast but then, spurred by economic news from Japan, easily broke through it and went further down, finishing the week around 108.00;
- the USD/CHF pair demonstrated a sluggish sideways trend, making minor fluctuations around a 0.9570 pivot point.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the W1 chart for EUR/USD clearly shows an ascending channel that started to form at the beginning of last December. Now the pair is basically at its top boundary. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, after rebounding from it, the pair should go down to the central line of 1.1135 and then return to 1.1500. The experts still hold onto the pivot point of 1.1400, indicating a sideways channel with quite a narrow range of 1.1320-1.1500;
- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 65% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate in March’s range of 1.4050-1.4450;
- it is clear that all indicators point down for USD/JPY. Two-thirds of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree and reckon that the pair should reach the bottom at 105.50. Graphical analysis warns that a short-term surge up to resistance at 111.00 is possible before that. The longer-term forecast remains in force – USD/JPY should return to 114.70-117.00 in late April - early May;
- about 80% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 continue to wait for USD/CHF to bounce upward. The next target is to return to around 0.9800. Support is at 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016

Overview of Last Week’s Forecast
- EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of 1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;
- the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;
- graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;
- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;
- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;
- all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;
- about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;
- despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;
- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;
- even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;
- it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;
- about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

April 2016: Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals
Overview by NordFX Expert

It’s always fascinating to watch people make choices and then try to understand their reasons and motives. In this case, it’s not about presidential elections of course but about subscription to trading signals provided by the eponymous service integrated in MetaTrader 4.
As common knowledge goes, all money-related matters call for special attention, and autocopying of trades is no exception. Logically, you simply select a signal provider with some of the largest profits and replicate his trades. The question is whether it’s always the best solution. John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, shares his views on it.
The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for April 2016 are presented below.
I. Pound Aussie Real (growth 927%, 502 subscribers),
II. Green Line Signals (growth 42%, 478 subscribers),
III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 61%, 336 subscribers),
IV. Asia Balance (growth 339%, 157 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (growth 1403%, 117 subscribers),
VI. F Cracker (growth 20%, 96 subscribers),
VII. MWsclp (growth 41%, 84 subscribers),
VIII. CB06143 (growth 294%, 80 subscribers),
IX. Night Hunter (growth 329%, 72 subscribers),
X. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 20%, 54 subscribers).
John Gordon says, “In comparison with March, the two leaders Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals switched places. The former gained a position while the latter moved down, although, in my opinion, it may drop out of the top 10 by far in the next month. I doubt that someone would want to renew subscription to a signal that has lost 84% of the deposit amount in one go.
In the previous analysis, I urged to be very careful with subscription to Green Line Signals, the reasons being a short lifespan of the signal and nearly marginal drawdowns. The large number of subscribers can be explained only by their desire to get rich fast as in the 3 months of existence, the signal provider recorded impressive profits of almost 700%. However, the finale is quite typical for strategies based on the Martingale system or averaging of positions – the initial hundreds of percentage points have dwindled down to just 42%. It follows that all who subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April have lost all their investments. Only January subscribers have been able to preserve their capitals.
The signal Pound Aussie Real seems to be more stable. Still, the maximum drawdown of 44% raises some concerns as well. I’d like to point out that a large drawdown is not so rare for the signal. As recently as April there was a flop of 27.5%, with a mere 1.4% profit.
The signals MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 and Q2FX have kept their positions after March. The former has increased its profitability by a modest 5%, and the latter – by 6%. With this, it should be noted that the maximum drawdowns of both signals are quite sensible – 19% and 10.4% respectively, which reduces investment risks considerably. ¬
F Cracker is in the 6th place. I think this is rather a peculiar signal. It’s just over a month old, the drawdown is 21%, growth is 20% but there are 96 subscribers already! I believe it has to do with an effective promotional campaign by the signal provider and possibly with the participation in affiliate programs.
MWsclp is a free long-lived signal that has been producing 10-15% growth per month for the past 5 months. Nonetheless, it hadn’t demonstrated anything remarkable during the year before and its profits have been at zero on average.
There’s a very interesting signal I’d like to draw your attention to – CB06143. Its operating principle is, “Less is more.” Profits are from 1 to 10% a month, a respectable lifespan of about 2 years and a phenomenal drawdown of 4.5%.
Lastly, the signal LVIK Forex Commo ended up in the top 10 most likely because it’s 2 years old and its drawdown is slightly above 10%. However, its profits are quite modest – only 20% over 111 weeks. The upside is free subscription.”
“In conclusion,” says John Gordon, “what could (and should) be emphasized is the common thread of this overview: it’s important to do proper money management and not to chase big profits; it’s important to regulate risks in the MT4 settings (first off, adjusting maximum deposit load) and select signal providers with a reputable history (60, 80, 100 and more weeks). Luckily, they are well-represented on the MetaTrader list.”

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451;
- defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670;
- the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014;
- in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs;
- the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200;
- there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again;
- about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 09 - 13 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s predictions:
■ As for the forecast for EUR/USD, this pair succeeded to meet expectations of all experts. All of their forecasts turned out to be correct - those, which predicted its rise (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), the ones which predicted its drop (the pair afterwards went down to support at 1.1385), and –the ones predicted its sideways trend - due to fluctuations the pair returned almost to the same level it had started the week from. Such a mixed behaviour of the pair, as noted above, was largely predetermined by the last week’s release of a series of economic data points of a different trend from Europe and the USA;
■ as expected, these releases should influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, and that did not allow analysts to reach a consensus particularly in regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely made the same movement as EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, it showed a steady fall in the latter half of the week, returning to the benchmark for the whole year of 2016 - to support / resistance zone of around 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500;
■ there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair held onto the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and wrapping up the week virtually at the same level of 107.00 whereat it had consolidated last week;
■ as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD, but nonetheless it fully met expectations of both analysts and graphical analysis predicting its attempt to get closer to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this high, but due to its impressive surge upward it got closer to the target and reached the mark of 0.9728.



***


Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
■ similar to the last week, the experts' opinions about future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third of analysts are for the rise of the pair to the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with pivot point of 1.1400. The opinions about indicators are also split - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its rise. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a prevalence of bearish trends here, according to which the pair must first go down to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, move 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the pivot point of February - May at the level of 1.1280;
■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its declining. Target is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a bounce upwards to the last week figures within 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500;
■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the sideways movement of the pair within 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, the pair is very likely to rise to the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off which it should make another attempt to break through the support of 105.50 and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month;
■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be at the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700.


Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16 - 20 May 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens, graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;
■ with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support / resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;
■ forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance, and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 ÷ 109.40 channel;
■ predicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 ÷ 1.1100;
■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;
■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 ÷ 109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 ÷ 106.00;
■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 ÷ 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 23 - 27 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- as to the forecast for EUR/USD, last week there was no consensus in regards to its future. Surprisingly all predictions panned out. 35% of experts backed by graphical analysis reckoned that the pair would gradually bounce off the support of 1.1280 and move towards the resistance of 1.1380, and earlier this week the pair did went upwards and reached the mark of 1.1348. The other 45% of analysts voted for the pair’s fall to the level of 1.1200, which virtually happened in the latter half of the week – the pair wrapped up the week fluctuating within the range of 1.1200 - 1.1230;
- as to GBP/USD, 65% of experts predicted the pair’s drop to the area of 1.4250 - 1.4300, following which a rebound to the support of 1.4500 should occur. However the pair decided to jump the gun and after declining only to the level of 1.4330 it soared and reached the high of 1.4500, then it made a second breakthrough heaving upwards by further 165 points, following which it returned to 1.4500 - the target level of experts. By the way, it’s interesting to look at M1 charts of different brokers for this pair: in the last minute of the week session we may see a candle moving down to the mark of 1.4487 on some brokers’ charts, and some brokers’ charts vice versa show a candle moving up to 1.4513. As to NordFX quotes, they ended the week at the level of 1.4490;
- in the last minute of the session similar various readings were seen in regards to USD/JPY. As to the forecast for this pair, it turned out to be only partly correct. Earlier in the week the pair was expected to move in a sideway channel of 107.00 - 109.50, and it did so. But then, instead of rebounding downwards, the pair, supported by news from the USA, broke the resistance of 109.50 and transited into sideways movement within the range of 109.70 - 110.50;
- predicting the way USD/CHF would act, the majority of experts along with technical analysis continued to insist on the pair’s attempt to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. And that forecast was 100% fulfilled – in the middle of the week the pair reached this benchmark level and went further upwards – to the high of 0.9922. As to the end of the week, it became a focus of attention due to plunging of quotes of several brokers by 15 – 20 points during last minutes of the session.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- predicting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of experts backed by 75% of indicators insist on continuation of a descending trend for this pair. They reckon that the pair should fall at least to the level of 1.1100, and it even may go down further 100 points. As for the other experts and graphical analysis, according to their opinion the pair had already reached a local bottom and thus its upwards rebound to the area of 1.1300 - 1.1330 should happen;
- as to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the technical and graphical analysis on D1 concurs and elaborates that the pair would continue its movement in an ascending channel, which had started late February this year. According to this forecast, backed by 65% of experts, the pair would insistently try to reach the high of 1.1500, however this movement may take up to several weeks. As to the shorter-term forecast, the experts do not rule out the chance that the level of 1.4500 may turn from support into resistance for a while (pay attention to divergence of quotes when the last session had been closed). If this scenario plays out, then the key support will be 1.1440, and the next support - 1.4325;
- USD/JPY - here, according to the majority of experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair moving in the sideway channel alongside pivot point of 109.00 within next days. The main support will be at 107.70, resistance – at 111.00;
- as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was – as it was mentioned in previous reviews, the pair may stick to the side channel for a while, with the support of 0.9800 and the resistance level within 0.9900 - 0.9920, whereafter it should go south to the support of 0.9700. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 shows that afterwards it may again return to the benchmark level of 0.9800 bouncing off which it may plunge down to the mark of 0.9500, this movement may take up to 3 weeks.
Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

May 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Through the Eyes of NordFX Analyst

It's believed that there are no large drawdowns, but there are small deposits. Let's consider the following example: a drawdown of 90 dollars with a deposit of $100 is a disaster, if the deposit makes $1000 the drawdown is reasonable 9%, and if it makes $10000 then the latter may be ignored.
Traders who trade manually or with expert advisers, using averaging of positions or martingale, will confirm that you should not count on any profit if an account lacks decent funds. The deposit may become at risk of any mighty move of the market. And if we open the ‘Signals’ tab on MT4 and look which of them feature subscription, it becomes clear that a half of providers of these signals trade using the same averaging or martingale system.
Certainly, these high-risk strategies are able to bring both quick profit, and a similar quick zeroing of the account. So how do we reduce the risks? The leading analyst of the international broker company NordFX, John Gordon, discusses this very thing in his monthly reviews.
According to the results of May 2016, TOP 10 most popular signals with subscribers are the following:

I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 64%, 447 subscribers),
II. Pound Aussie Real (growth 1010%, 170 subscribers),
III. Small to BIG Money (growth 269%, 158 subscribers),
IV. Fusion Project (growth 397%, 155 subscribers),
V. Green Line Signals (growth 77%, 125 subscribers),
VI. MAXI (growth 586%, 103 subscribers),
VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 809%, 95 subscribers),
VIII. Q2FX (growth 1482%, 90 subscribers),
IX. Asia Balance (growth 432%, 82 subscribers),
X. CB06143 (growth 309%, 79 subscribers).

"MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 is considered to be a ‘fixture’, J. Gordon states, "ranking among TOP 10 throughout 2016. It doesn't look so attractive against many other signals. Wherein others show growth of hundreds and thousands of per cents, it showed growth of only 17% within last five months (from 47% in January to 64% in May), and at the same time it appeared to top the popularity rating. Why? I think there are three reasons for it:
- the first one is a life time of a signal, 112 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;
- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't exceed 19% during these two years;
- the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free.
Therewith it should be noted that it is clearly not scalping, the average time of position holding makes 3 days. Generally, the author of MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 has been working rather steadily. As a comparison, there is none of seven signals with a yield of around 2000% and more, included into January rating, in a current TOP 10. So, there is a lot to be thought over.”
“As to other signals”, NordFX analyst continues, “Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals are firmly fixed among top performers ranking among TOP 10 for the fourth month in a row. And one more signal is Q2FX, it has been steadily retaining its position among the TOP 10 for the third month.”
“As for Green Line Signals, in my previous comments I insistently recommended to think twice before subscribing to it. And I proved right about it. Due to aggressive trading, the signal lost around 85% of the deposit. This is a rather typical final for the strategies based on martingale or averaging of positions, and therefore the previous 700% turned into just a few tens of percent. It means that all the users subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April lost their money, and only January subscribers, apparently, only the remaining 125 subscribers out of almost 500, who had been subscribed to that signal a month ago, could preserve their capital.
Pound Aussie Real signal seems to be more stable. However it should be used cautiously as a high drawdown is quite common for it, and in May it reached its high of 57%. For those subscribers whose deposits include bonus such a drawdown can be critical.
Currently Q2FX seems to be a more preferable trading signal against previous ones with pretty impressive profit and quite admissible drawdown around 10%.
Small to BIG Money signal took the third place in May rating. To my mind, it is too early for any significant conclusions. This signal exists only three weeks, therewith 388 transactions out of 494 (i.e. around 80%) were made during one day - on May 3, bringing a huge chunk of profit. So far Small to BIG Money shows a moderate drawdown – it is less than 8%, however due to slippage the results of subscribers can turn out to be not so impressive.
Fusion Project signal shows a pretty good performance – there is no hedging, no martingale, average yield makes around 50% per month with the maximum drawdown of less than 10%. The only drawback is a sufficiently short life time of the signal, but it can be fixed if a trader operates properly", John Gordon points out.
“MAXI signal is somewhat similar to Fusion Project - manual trading without a grid and averaging, growth makes around 60% per month with a drawdown of 22%.
By the way, as to the maximum drawdown, it shouldn't be perceived as a certain constant", John Gordon sums up. "For example, in the last review I praised CB06143 signal because its drawdown didn't exceed 4.5% during two years of life. We must admit that this result is stellar. But just a few days ago its deposit drew down by 21.22% and one of the most important indicators was slightly spoiled. However, CB06143 still has investment attractiveness, because it shows sustainable, though not hefty income. And, as you know ‘Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent’. Especially in the Forex market."

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which may be considered as 100% fulfilled:
– as to the forecast for EUR/USD, the majority of experts and indicators insisted that it should go down at least to the level of 1.1100, which the pair did, wrapping up the week just 10 points higher – at the mark of 1.1110;
– as to the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, technical and graphical analysis concurred and elaborated that the pair would continue moving in an ascending channel, which had started as early as this February. According to this forecast, supported by 65% of experts, the high of 1.1500 is the ultimate target of this pair. Therewith earlier this week, there were doubts as to the way the level of 1.4500 would play out whether as a local support or resistance. Eventually these doubts panned out, during Monday the pair had been fluctuating, at one moment moving above this line, at another – dropping below it, but then on Tuesday it steadily heaved, gaining 300 points and reaching the high of 1.4740 by Thursday;
– making forecast for USD/JPY, both experts and technical analysis expected the pair to move in a sideways channel alongside the pivot point of 109.00. This forecast may be considered as fulfilled – the pair finished the week at the same level it had started from. However its fluctuations appeared to be so marginal, that it failed to fall below the abovementioned level of 109.00, which eventually acted as the support for it;
– the forecast for USD/CHF also suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support within 0.9900 - 0.9920, which proved to be correct. Only on Friday evening, following the speech of the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen and finding almost no resistance, the pair could stall just above the said zone and ended the week at the level of 0.9945.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– as to the future of EUR/USD, 80% of experts and 95% of indicators insist that the pair hasn’t reached the local low in the area of 1.1000 yet. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 points out that before going south, the price may tick up: the first resistance will be at 1.1170, the next one - at 1.1240. When the pair hits its bottom at the level of 1.1000, a mighty upwards bounce may follow, as a result of which it will rise above the mark of 1.1300;
– as to the medium-term acting of GBP/USD, 70% of analysts and indicators on D1 concur and elaborate that the uptrend will continue. The nearest resistance level will be at 1.4800. With this, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, early in the week the pair may go down to the support of 1.4500 and only then it may start moving upwards;
– as to the future of USD/JPY, bullish sentiment predominates among the indicators. Experts’ opinions are split almost equally: 35% vote for the pair’s rise, 35% - for its fall. The remaining 30% predict continuation of its sideways trend, which, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, is the most probable scenario. The first support will be at 109.40, the next support will be at 108.50, the main resistance will be in the area of 111.00;
– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a clear difference of experts’ opinions and the graphical analysis. The former ones (85%), fully backed by indicators, reckon that the pair will make attempts to reach the benchmark level of 1.0000. As to the graphical analysis, it predicts that the pair will rebound downwards and return to the zone of 0.9700, followed by a short-term upward movement to the resistance of 0.9800 and a deeper decline to the support of 0.9500. The graphical analysis allocates between 3 and 4 weeks for implementation of this scenario.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6 – 10 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that the pair might first rise to the level of 1.1170, and then – even up to 1.1240, following which it would reverse and start going south. This scenario also considered the fact that according to many authoritative sources the key indicator of economic situation in the USA – Nonfarm payrolls (Nonfarm employment change) – would show its gradual growth. Until Friday the pair had been moving strictly in accordance with this forecast – on Tuesday it reached the first resistance of 1.1173, rebounded, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the area of the second resistance at 1.1220, following which it reversed and fiercely went south. However, Friday release of data from the USA changed the situation dramatically – actual NFP reading turned out to be 4 times (!) less than it was expected, and thus US dollar plunged by nearly 250 points;
– as to GBP/USD, over the last several weeks the level of 1.4500 was viewed as a medium-term pivot point for this pair. That’s why according to the readings of the graphical analysis the support zone was supposed to coincide with this line. But jitters and heightened volatility ahead of Brexit allowed the pair to drop below it by 115 points. However, afterwards it returned to the above-mentioned pivot point and wrapped up the week at the level of 1.4514;
– a sideways trend with the main resistance at 111.00 and support at 108.50 was deemed to be the most probable scenario for USD/JPY. Similar to EUR/USD, the pair first had been moving virtually within the predetermined range, however, the unexpected NFP data dropped the pair to the month-old values just in several hours;
– the forecast, provided by the graphical analysis for USD/CHF, suggested that it would return to the zone of 0.9700 and it turned out to be absolutely correct, the pair finished the week at the level of 0.9754 – which is 200 points lower than the level it had started from.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– as to the future of EUR/USD, 100% of indicators point upwards. However, the vast majority of experts (around 80%) continue to insist that the pair will go down at least to the level of 1.1100. As to the forecast for summer, in their opinion during this period the pair may move further down – to the mark of 1.1000. The graphical analysis gives more cautious forecasts. According to its readings on Н4 and D1, the pair may first go down towards the support of 1.1283 (the next support will be at 1.1200), and then it will surge upwards to the high of 1.1450. Following which it will after all go south getting closer to the local bottom at the level of 1.1130;
– as to the acting of GBP/USD, analysts’ opinions are split almost equally – 45% vote for its fall, 45% - for its rise, and 10% - for the sideways trend. 75% of indicators on D1 along with the graphical analysis also vote for the sideways movement of the pair, which seems to be the most probable for the upcoming week. As before the pivot point is at the level of 1.4500, the support is at the areas of 1.4455, 1.4400, 1.4330, the resistance is at 1.4535, 1.4600 and 1.4740;
– analysts’ views on the future of USD/JPY differ, some predict its rise (50%) and others expect a sideways trend (the other 50%), none of them predicts its fall this week. Of course the pair may reach its May low of 105.50, however, it will be a short-term movement, and its main trend is south-oriented – towards the pivot point of 110.00;
– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a difference of experts’ opinions and the technical analysis once again. 90% of indicators point down, but 60% of analysts predict surge of the pair to the level of 0.9850. The graphical analysis also doesn’t rule out a similar short-term uptick, however, the analysis on Н4 as well as on D1 continues to insist that a deep decline to the support of 0.9500 may follow. As to the medium-term forecast, it also remains the same, in spite of its fluctuations the pair should reach the benchmark level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 13 – 17 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– making forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming month, the majority of experts (around 80%) insisted that the pair would go down at least to the level of 1.1100. Eventually, following the speech of the president of the ECB Mario Draghi, the pair did start going south and wrapped up the week in the middle between the level of support of 1.1283 and 1.1200, indicated on the basis of the data, provided by the graphical analysis;
– ahead of Brexit the volatility of GBP/USD is increasing day by day. As a reminder, last week opinions of analysts were split almost equally – 45% voted for the pair’s rise, 45% - for its fall, and 10% - for the sideways channel and fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 1.4500. As a result, the pair first went up to the specified line, then it reached the mark of 1.4660, in total moving upwards by 300 points in one-and-a-half day, following which it reversed and turned back to the Pivot Point, and then it plunged, breaking through all expected levels of support and eventually dropping by 500 points;
– and as to the forecast for USD/JPY, it may be considered to be fully fulfilled. All 100% of experts unanimously ruled out the fall of this pair, therewith one half of them voted for its rise, the other half – for its horizontal movement. Eventually, failing to break through the level of support at 106.30, the pair went up by 150 points, and then it returned to the early week marks, identifying the level of 107.00 as the Pivot Point;
– as to the acting of USD/CHF, once again the graphical analysis proved to be right, over a period of several weeks it had been insistently warning of a possible fall of the pair to the support of 0.9500. Eventually the pair almost reached the predetermined target, going down to the level of 0.9577, following which it rebounded and ended the week in the area of 0.9640.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– the medium-term forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – declining to the level of 1.1000 during the month. 70% of experts agree to this scenario. As to its acting in the upcoming week, the experts combined with the graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on D1 predict a sideways movement with a predominance of bearish trends and the support at 1.1210. The graphical analysis on D1 provides an alternative point of view. Even though it also predicts a horizontal trend, according to its opinion the pair should first rise to the high of 1.4440, and only then it should go down to the support of 1.1210, and then even further down – to the level of 1.1135;
– as to GBP/USD, the graphical analysis seems to be aware of the approaching Brexit referendum. For at least it refuses to make any forecasts on Н1, Н4, and D1. However, opinions of indicators and experts differ drastically: if 100% of the former point down, then 90% of others reckon that the pair would tend to return to the Pivot Point of 1.4500. Surge upwards to the resistance of 1.4400 is mentioned as the minimum goal;
– surprisingly opinions of experts concerning the future of USD/JPY concurred with both readings of the indicators and graphical analysis. According to their joint decision, the pair will continue moving alongside the Pivot Point of 107.00. The first support will be at 106.50, the second support will be at 105.50, the resistance will be in the areas of 107.50, 107.90 and 108.70;
– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – the experts identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, and the graphical analysis reckons that this bottom would be at the level of 0.9600. With this, the attempts of the bulls to return the pair to the zone of 0.9700 – 0.9750 are pointed out. As to the 30-day forecast, the opinions vary: the analysts keep insisting on the pair’s attempts to reach the level of 1.0000, and the graphical analysis suggests that when the pair bounces off the resistance of 0.9750, the pair will go down to the lows of early May in the area of 0.9445.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 20 – 24 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– making a forecast for EUR/USD, both experts and technical analysis unanimously voted for a sideways trend with a bearish sentiment, which was 100% fulfilled – discrepancy between the levels of the beginning and the end of the week made just around 20 points, therewith the pair tended to go south. The graphical analysis on Н4 pointed to the support of 1.1210, and, having reached this level on Tuesday, the pair bounced off it and moved upwards on Wednesday. The pair succeeded to break through the above-mentioned support only on Thursday and, as predicted by the graphical analysis on D1, the pair quickly reached the bottom at the area of 1.1135, following which it returned to the values of the early week;

– we couldn’t find any compromise for GBP/USD between the experts and the technical analysis ahead of Brexit. Eventually during the week, the pair drew a chart very similar to the chart of EUR/USD. The only forecast, made and completely panned out, was an increased volatility of the pair, as a result of which a weekly range of its fluctuations exceeded 350 points;

– as to the forecast for USD/JPY, surprisingly opinions of the analysts coincided with both readings of the indicators and the graphical analysis. According to their consensus the pair should continue moving alongside the pivot point of 107.00. However, on Thursday due to release of the Bank of Japan interest rate decisions the pair easily broke through the support at 105.50 and it sharply plunged, reaching the two-year-old levels;

– as to the acting of USD/CHF, both the experts and the graphical analysis agreed that the pair reached the local bottom at the area of 0.9550 – 0.9600. The pair really failed to fall below these marks and it wrapped up the week at the level of 0. 9590. As to the striving of the pair to return to the area of 0.9700 – 0.9750, the pair made four such attempts during the week, however it failed to rise above the mark of 0.9686.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– making forecast for EUR/USD, 60% of experts, backed by 80% of indicators on Н4, reckon that the pair would go up to the zone of 1.1340 – 1.1400. As to the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 and indicators on a daily interval, they believe that within the next few days the pair won’t rise above 1.1300 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.1200 – 1.1300. The next support will be at 1.1150;

– as to GBP/USD, it’s virtually impossible to give a holistic forecast ahead of Brexit. As a reminder, a plebiscite among the residents of the Foggy Albion, will be held on Thursday, June 23, and its results will be made public the next day – on Friday, June 24. According to some analysts, if British people vote to leave EU, their national currency may plunge by over 4000 points, down to 1.1000. It is fair to say, that the majority of experts (around 65%) remains optimistic and bullish, though no one indicates any specific growth points. As to the forecast from Monday to Wednesday, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, the pair has a lot of chances to drop to the area of 1.4100;

– the analysts and the graphical analysis agree that the level of 103.40 is the local bottom for USD/JPY. According to their opinion, for some time the pair will be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it will get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast remains the same. The experts and the graphical analysis identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, the resistance will be at 0.9700, the overall sentiment – bearish. But once again, we’d like to remind, that results of Brexit can sufficiently influence not only GBP/USD, but also all other major currency pairs.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;


– last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;



– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of 103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 – 106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);

– as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.


***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;


– as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;



– as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04 – 08 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, turned out to be right. At least, over the past week the pair regained nearly 150 points and wrapped up the week within the area of lows seen in late May – early June;
– the forecasts as to the future of GBP/USD were also vague, as well as the forecasts in respect of future relationships of Great Britain and EU: last week opinions of the analysts were split almost equally: 30% voted for the pair’s fall, 40% - for the its rise and 30% - for a sideways trend. That’s exactly what happened: first the pair slightly fell, then it went up a little bit, then it moved downwards again and eventually it appeared at the low of June 24 - 1.3270, having fulfilled expectations of all experts, including those supporting a sideways trend;
– making forecast for USD/JPY, 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 predicted that the pair would move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00, which did happen, only range-adjusted – it turned out to be even narrower than predicted - 101.40–103.40;
– as to USD/CHF pair, 70% of experts, backed by the majority of indicators, expected the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. The pair did rallied fairly quickly to the predetermined level, where it had been stalling during the midweek, following which it went down to the same values it had started the week from – to the area of 0.9730.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– the effects of Brexit are likely to influence the condition of markets for a very long time. And uncertainty in respect of the way the Foggy Albion will be separated from the EU (and whether it will ever be separated) causes uncertainty in forecasts of analysts. As to the acting of EUR/USD for the upcoming week, 45% of analysts insist on the pair’s rise, 45% - on its fall, and the remaining 10% reached a compromise voting for a sideways trend. Readings of the indicators show the same variety of opinions, but the graphical analysis on Н4 draws a well-defined sideways channel within1.1035–1.1180. With this, you should consider that NFP data – the key figure of economic health of the USA - will be released on Friday, July 08, which usually cause spikes in exchange rate of US dollar. Unlike the fuzzy week forecast, the medium-terms forecasts provide a much clearer picture: over 80% of analysts reckon that in somewhere about two months the pair will go down first to the level of 1.0800, and then further – to the area of 1.0500–1.0600;
– as to GBP/USD, here we can see a unique situation – 100% of experts, fully backed by the technical analysis, predict a sideways trend, which is of course due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The level of 1.3300 is referred to as the pivot point, 1.3070 – as the lower boundary of the channel, 1.3550 – as the upper boundary. As to the forecast until the end of the month, here more than 55% of experts tend to believe that the pair will fall below the level of 1.3000;
– as to the future of USD/JPY, almost 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the zone of 100.00–101.00. With this the area of 103.50 is indicated as the main resistance level. An alternative point of view, supported by the remaining experts and the graphical analysis on D1, suggests a possible rise of the pair to the level of 106.30. Therewith, you should consider that currently USD/JPY is at the pivot point level of the first half of 2014, and it may move alongside this line for some time;
– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, it’s highly likely that the pair will continue fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9800, and with this it will pursue bullish attempts to return to the landmark level of 1.0000.
Roman Butko, NordFX

[Julia]

June 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

We continue posting ratings of MQL5 trading signals, which you can easily subscribe to using the tab ‘Signals’ at the bottom of terminals МТ4 and МТ5. As a reminder, this service is a very effective substitute of your own trading - manually or with the help of the advisors. The main difficulty here is choosing those strategies worth to be subscribed to. Currently around five thousand strategies are presented on ‘the display window’, and selecting the ones, resulting in a sustainable profit, rather than in a one-time deposit loss, is quite challenging.

As usual, John Gordon – expert in investment security and leading analyst at broker company NordFX, analyzing mistakes, often made by investors, subscribing to any given signal, is acting as our consultant in respect of this service.

Following the results of June preferences of the subscribers/investors are as follows:
I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 75%, 430 subscribers),
II. Arrow (growth 1461%, 204 subscribers),
III. Stable Forex Profit (growth 10562%, 199 subscribers),
IV. Small to BIG Money (growth 341%, 179 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (growth 1748%, 119 subscribers),
VI. Lemar Investment Group (growth 742%, 106 subscribers),
VII. Setka Real2 (growth 1013%, 104 subscribers),
VIII. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 26%, 75 subscribers),
IX. A1 Daily Profit (growth 1152%, 64 subscribers),
X. Y2016 (growth 1491%, 63 subscribers).

“For starters”, offers John Gordon, “let’s give some general statistics. So, as compared to the previous month, Top 10 is renewed by 60%. The previous providers left in the top list are:
– MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 –still ranks No. I;
¬– Lemar Investment Group – the signal moved ahead one step – from VII to VI place;
– Small to BIG Money – conversely, dropped one place and currently holds IV position;
– and signal Q2FX, which switched from VIII place to V.

As to the other signals, which were among previous May TOP-10, the situation is as follows:
– Fusion Project moved down from the sixth to the thirty-third place in the rating of popularity among the subscribers;
¬– CB06143 changed its name to TRIPLEX 003 TYPE AA, and giving up its positions, currently holds the twenty-fourth place instead of the tenth;
– Green Line Signals, was not even in TOP-10, but in TOP-3 during several months, currently it didn’t just drop out of the leaders’ team, but lost almost all its subscribers, showing a drawdown of 97% from the deposit;
– Pound Aussie Real appeared on the 36th place versus the previous 2nd;
– Asia Balance – ranks No.37 (previously – No.9);
– signal MAXI showed the greatest drop in the rating, it moved down from the 6th place to the 57th.”

“It should be noted that our forecasts as to the reliability of a given signal”, continues analyst of NordFX, “mostly pan out. And those signals, positively recommended by us, usually can easily stand and tick along even the sharpest fluctuations of cross rates, even the ones seen during Brexit. However, unfortunately, quite often investors choose absolutely other signals, being guided only by the profit figures and paying no attention to our calls for being cautious, which leads to quite poor results. For an example, I'd like to cite what we told about Green Line Signals three months ago, in March:

“Consider”, I wrote previously, “the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%. Time will tell whether I’m right or wrong urging to be extremely cautious with this signal.”
“Time proved I was right, and instead of previous growth of 700% June figures showed loss of 65% with the maximum drawdown of 96%!”

"Generally, while selecting signals for subscription,” John Gordon says, "I urge to analyze other signals of the same author as well. We may take signal Pound Aussie, being among TOP-10 in May, as an example. Apart from this signal, its author offers to subscribe to two more signals: Mix Demo and London Hawk. Needless to say, that the first signal, operating on a demo account, shows a very impressive deposit growth – 1200% in little over a year. But a drawdown is also impressive – 81%, which is a cause for serious concerns. And if the account, which you use for a subscription, also includes a bonus from your broker, with such a drawdown it almost 100% likely to be zeroed.

The second signal – London Hawk – is operating on the real account, it is only 7 weeks old, it shows growth of 24%, but herewith the maximum drawdown has already tested the mark above 53%. The obvious conclusions spring to mind. And more than 80% of investors have already come to such conclusions, having cancelled the subscription to Pound Aussie Real.

Or, for example, another signal which just amazes with its profitability – Panen Profit, plus 9113% in just under a year! And the maximum drawdown for such a growth is quite acceptable – 50% from the deposit. It's an excellent result but for several ‘buts’.
The first one is what I call "reverse martingale" – trade tactics where first the author of a signal gains ‘pace’ of the deposit with a high risk, and then sharply slows down. With such a scheme, only those investors signed to the signal at the very beginning of its lifespan get the main profit. And here example of Panen Profit is very illustrative: September of 2015 – plus 290%, October – plus 238%, November – 8%, and further from 9 to 27% per month.
As a whole and with such figures the subscription can turn out to be quite profitable, but there is the second ‘but’, which is that the drawdown of 50% appeared not when the growth was approaching to 300%, but during the months with a rather gradual increase of the deposit of 20–25%.

Of course, a degree of admissible risk is determined by the investor himself and nobody else. I'm just trying to help with accurate assessment of a balance between this risk and profitability.
Let's assume that you had been signed to Panen Profit since 6/1/2016. For this month the deposit growth made around 25%, and the drawdown – 50%. Subscription cost – 30 USD/per month. So that you could leave in a month with zero result, your initial deposit should make 120 USD. The risk of loss makes 50% from 120 USD, that is 60 dollars, plus 30 dollars paid for the subscription, total 90 USD. But if your deposit makes, let's say, 1200 USD instead of 120, it will be a different and more attractive scenario," - John Gordon from NordFX sums up. "Specifics and a great advantage of the service 'Signals' is in the fixed cost of subscription, regardless of the size of the investor's deposit. Thus, with deposit growing higher, not only absolute, monetary profit is increasing, but also relative profit, expressed as percentage from the initial capital, the risk is, correspondingly, decreasing, which is good news for any investor".

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivot point of 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795, whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;

– predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivot point of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

[Julia]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 – 22 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled – the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down, as a result of which the level of 1.1050 should act as the resistance zone. However, as the last week showed, it continued to act as the upper boundary of the support area of 1.1025–1.1050, and all attempts to break through it failed. Eventually the pair has been moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160 for almost three weeks, which is, obviously, due to the uncertainty around effects of Brexit on Europe;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, tended to believe that the pair would soar, having rebound from the bottom in the area of 1.2860, where it would reach the resistance of 1.3370 and briefly pause within the range of 1.3100–1.3370. That is just what happened. Then on Thursday under the onslaught of bulls, the pair could go further upwards and reached the level of 1.3480, but by Friday night their pressure weakened and the pair returned into the predetermined range, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3180;

– and acting of USD/JPY must have come as a big surprise to analysts. The pair was expected to follow the scenario of spring/summer 2014 and move within the ranges, predetermined by the support levels of 100.20 and 99.00 and resistance levels of 102.30 and 103.50. However, having bounced off the support of 100.20, the pair made such a mighty heave, that it literally flew over nearly 600 points, got to the level of 106.320 and at once regained everything it had lost during announcement of Brexit results;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair can be considered 100% fulfilled. As it was expected, the pair had been fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9850. In attempts to return to the zone of 1.0000, it could reach the high of 0.9893, and afterwards it again returned to the pivot point and ended the week at the level of 0.9820.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, it’s clear that in this case all indicators point to south. However the majority of experts reckon that the pair will continue moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160. ECB rate decision and speech of Mario Draghi on Thursday can make some adjustments, and thus a certain rise of the pair is possible. As to the graphical analysis, it points out that the pair, following the example of USD/JPY, may well surge upwards, paring losses it had incurred during the referendum in the Foggy Albion. In this case 1.1220, 1.1290 and 1.1410 are deemed as the resistance levels. An alternative scenario, backed by only 25% of analysts for now, suggests that the pair would go down to the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, according to both opinions of analysts and technical analysis, the bearish trend still gets a firm hold of the market. However, in terms of retracement, during the upcoming week the pair has potential to rise to the resistance of 1.3470 (and according to the graphical analysis on H4 even higher – up to 1.3800), following which it will again plunge – first to the support of 1.3100, and then to its historic lows in the area of 1.2800;

– opinions of the analysts about the future of USD/JPY may be narrowed down to the point, that last week’s rebound upwards is only a retracement, and that bulls’ strength is almost gone. Eventually, the pair is expected to change over to the sideways movement within 104.50–106.50 (the next resistance will be at 107.80) during the next week. Graphical analysis and indicators agree to this scenario, which both the ones on Н4 and on D1 took a neutral position. Medium-term forecast suggests that the descending trend, started as early as last December, should continue and the pair would retest the level of 99.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, according to virtually all analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4 and 80% of indicators, the pair will remain bullish and continue moving in an ascending trend. The nearest target will be at 0.9950, then at 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9800, and if will be broken through – 0.9680.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

[Julia]

British Pound – Nosedive After Brexit

After Brexit every second Brit predicts the end to the United Kingdom within the next 10 years. These are the shocking data of survey conducted by BBC. It is clear, that such turmoil cannot but effect the future of the British pound as well – one of the major currencies being traded on the Forex market now.

GBP/USD pair steadily holds the third place in world hierarchy of currencies in respect of the liquidity level. The volume of transactions thereon before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum made about 12% of all transactions on Forex, and one of the key factors determining popularity of this pair among traders is its high volatility.
Statistics for the recent years demonstrated extremely high sensitivity of GBP to fundamental factors including not only data on the state of British economy and decisions of the Bank of England, but also similar data from Europe and the USA. Significant rate fluctuations of the British pound constantly led to statements of European officials and their colleagues overseas.
And it all occurred prior to Brexit! What will happen to the ‘British’ in the conditions of a real force majeure?

“It is logical to assume,” the leading analyst of NordFX broker company, John Gordon says, “that until the authorities of Great Britain officially announce the beginning of procedure of exit from the EU and launch a specific implementation of this decision, the pound will try to circle the wagons and even make an effort to somewhat improve its positions. But as soon as the distance between Europe and the United Kingdom will really begin to increase, the pound will see truly 'rainy days'. Problems with the budget and serious current account deficit are evident. Under such circumstances it will be very difficult to slow down outflow of investment capital and at least to neutralize bull sentiment in the foreign exchange market.”

On the flip side, the specialist and Chief European Economist of the Bank of England, Johnathan Loynes, reckons that fall of exchange rate of the pound, conversely, can serve well to national economy. “The pound dropped more than by 11% against the currency basket”, J. Loynes stated, “and it is perceived as something negative. However the exchange rate of the pound prior to Brexit had been too high and hadn’t contributed to reduction of trade deficit of the country, making British export non-competitively expensive”. “Decline in the exchange rate of the pound can kick serious start to export of Great Britain again”, he comforted the British industrialists in his recent report.

These comments closely echo the opinion of the winner of the Wolfson prize, economist Roger Bootle, who – even before the referendum! – stated that if British citizens voted for exit from the EU and the pound sharply depreciated, in the long term it would have a positive effect – would help to balance trade and bridge the trade balance deficit by means of increase in export of Great Britain and reduction of the domestic demand for import.

As for the analysts of Credit Suisse Fixed Research, they, perhaps, do not share the optimism of their colleagues from the Bank of England and they announced a major revision of the forecasts for the major currency pairs.
The prevailing revision is that the forecast for GBP/USD decreased from 1.58 to 1.22. As for the three-months forecast for EUR/USD, according to Shahab Jalinoos from Credit Suisse, it is cut to 1.05. “Now, when the negative scenario became a reality,” the analyst says, “we believe that the market will continuously strive to sell this pair.”

The specialists of the Dutch financial conglomerate ING predict a bit deeper decline for GBP/USD. According to their forecasts, the pair can soon go down to 1.10-1.20. With this, in a longer term the analytics of ING paint a bleaker picture connected with a possible holding of the second Scottish independence referendum and loss of the status of the reserve currency by the pound. “It is clear that lack of clarity (in respect of the future of Great Britain), Head of FX Strategy at ING in London, Chris Turner, says, – will push GBP towards extreme devaluation.

As for investment bank JPMorgan, summarizing the results of Brexit, it also updated the forecasts, considering that as early as in the third quarter of 2016 GBP/USD will fall below the level of 1.29, and EUR/GBP will reach the mark of 0.8760.

“Even before Brexit”, – says John Gordon from NordFX, “analysts indicated the level of 1.30 against the US dollar as the critical level.
Therewith it is believed that if the pair is consolidated below it, then the pound might be expected to go down further to 1.15, and then even further down – down to parity with American currency. The pair had already tested the level of 1.28, the future, however, largely depends on those steps which will be taken by the authorities of Great Britain.”

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.