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  #81  
Old 09-05-2015, 19:50
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GENERALIZED FOREX FORECAST FOR 11 – 15 MAY 2015
«BINGO!” AND BLACK BEARS


As usual, first a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
- for the EUR/USD pair the forecast was fulfilled by no less than 100%. We supposed that the EUR/USD pair would experience a sideways trend and a possible descent to the 1.0800 mark. This is what actually ended up happening, as on Tuesday the pair fell into the 1.0700÷1.0850 zone and stayed there for approximately one hour before determinedly rising in order to finish the week at exactly the same mark as the mark it started from;
- the GBP/USD pair was strictly abiding by our “guidelines” of a sideways move all week until Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than we originally supposed. However, this was followed by the announcement of the British election results, which surprised not only politicians but also financiers, resulting in the pair soaring up by more than 200 points
- Regarding the USD/JPY pair, the majority of both analysts and indicators asserted that the pair would keep strengthening in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather tight-numbered opposition was foretelling a rapid downwards rebound. The result was that both groups proved to be right, as at the start of the week “bulls” were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below the arranged 120.00 line. However, they then weakened and passed on their influence to the “bears”. Zoologists claim that Japanese black bears prefer steep mountainous terrain, which, judging by the way the pair impetuously descended, is hard to disagree with. However, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, returning to the 119.70 point, which it has been fluctuating about since the end of March.
- The USD/CHF forecast maintained that the pair would continue following in the wake of EUR/USD, acting as a mirror image of its “older sister”. Therefore, , looking at last week’s charts we can now shout “Bingo!”, since the forecast proved to be 100% accurate.
***
Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Aggregating the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts, which were based on an extremely diverse range of technical and graphical analytical methods, we can presume that:
- The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue occupying a sideways trend with fluctuations about the 1.1230 mark. At the very least, this is the conclusion we arrived at after looking at the neat split between expert opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (raised hands) – 56%. A similar situation occurs with indicator showings: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main levels of support 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, whilst the main levels of resistance are 1.1290 and 1.1440;
- For the GBP/USD pair an absolute majority of indicators (87%. ) on both H4 and D1 foretell growth. Analysts’ opinions, however, diverge (↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ – 44%. ). Since the pair has already reached quite a high level of 1.5600, there exists a significant probability that the pair will attempt to barge through the resistance and settle in the 1.5475÷1.5785 zone. However, a failure to do so and an ensuing descent to the 1.5000 support level can also be predicted with a similarly high probability.
- As for the USD/JPY pair, expert opinions and indicator predictions also diverge (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ – 45%, indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23%. ). However, both are satisfied with a Pivot Point level of 119.70, support at the 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20 levels and resistance at 120.05, 120.30 и 120.85;
- Regarding the near future of the USD/CHF pair, however, both analysts and indicators are in harmony: more than 75% of the former and 56% of the latter agree that the pair should rise and settle in the 0.9300÷0.9400 corridor. The next support level is 0.9190 and the next resistance level is 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #82  
Old 13-05-2015, 13:00
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13.05.2015 08:10 GMT

Drop in European Equity Due to Greek Situation


Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. In particular, European stock markets slumped following the interim meeting of the Eurogroup and the Greek government. According to media reports, both parties still couldn’t reach an agreement on key issues. In this light, the FTSE 100 fell 1.37 percent to 6,933.80 points, the DAX dropped 1.72 percent to 11,472.41 points, and the CAC 40 shed 1.06 percent down to 4,974.65 points.

On Russia’s stock market, the MICEX index fell 0.23 percent to 1,704.62 points whereas the RTS index grew 1.01 percent finishing the trading session at 1,070.19 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones declined by 0.2 percent to 18,068.23 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.29 percent down to 2,099.12 points, and the NASDAQ fell 0.35 percent down 4,976.19 points.

Oil prices posted a rise, however. On the NYMEX, the price of WTI oil futures for June went up by $1.5 and made $60.75 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the Brent oil future for June rose by $1.95 and reached $66.86 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD is experiencing some correction at this point. Nevertheless, the prospects of moving up to 1.1470 still remain.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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  #83  
Old 14-05-2015, 14:46
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14.05.2015 07:40 GMT

Euro Began to Go Up


Yesterday the world’s financial markets closed mainly on the decline. In Europe, the FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent to 6,949.63 points, the DAX dropped 1.05 percent down to 11,351.46 points, and the CAC 40 fell 0.26 percent to 4,961.86 points.

In Russia, the MICEX index shed 1.31 percent down to 1,682.26 points while the RTS index advanced 1.12 percent up to 1,082.21 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.04 percent to 18,060.49 points, the S&P 500 shed 0.03 percent down to 2,098.48 points whereas the NASDAQ added 0.11 percent making 4,981.69 points.

Oil prices also went down yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.25 and reached $60.50 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the cost of Brent oil futures for June delivery was down by $0.05 and made $66.81 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EUR/USD went up and is moving towards the afore-mentioned target of 1.1470.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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  #84  
Old 17-05-2015, 13:15
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015


Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall:
- the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone;
- one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727;
- the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30;
- USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago.

***

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation:
- for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards;
- the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards;
- the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30;
- as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #85  
Old 18-05-2015, 16:21
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18.05.2015 07:10 GMT

Euro Reached Its Target Level


Last Friday European markets closed in the red whereas Russian and US markets posted a rise.

In Europe, the British FTSE 100 fell 0.18 percent to 6,960.49 points, the German DAX dropped 0.98 percent down to 11,447.03 points, and the French CAC 40 shed 0.71 percent down to 4,993.82 points.

In Russia, due to corporate reports and strengthening of the ruble, the MICEX index grew 0.8 percent to 1,691.05 points, and the RTS index gained 0.86 percent going up to 1,063.94 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones added 0.11 percent making 18,272.56 points, the S&P 500 grew 0.08 up to 2,122.73 points while the NASDAQ fell 0.05 percent to 5,048.29 points.

The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for June dropped by $0.19 and got to $59.69 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the June future for oil of mark Brent went up by $0.11 and made $66.81 a barrel.

On the global currency market, EUR/USD has almost reached the earlier mentioned target of 1.1470 (just short of a couple of points). Now the pair is facing quite a big obstacle – the long-term MA on the daily chart and horizontal resistance at 1.1476. The pair may experience a considerable correction here and even roll back to 1.12.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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  #86  
Old 19-05-2015, 13:01
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19.05.2015 08:20 GMT

EUR/USD Reached 1.12 Rate


Yesterday world financial markets closed mixed. In Europe as such, the British FTSE 100 grew 0.12 percent to 6,968.87 points, the German DAX advanced 1.29 percent up to 11,594.28 points, and the French CAC 40 gained 0.37 percent up to 5,012.31 points.

On the Russian floors, the MICEX index fell 0.76 percent to 1,678.55 points whereas the RTS index posted a slight rise of 0.07 percent making 1,075.47 points.

In the USA, the Dow Jones grew 0.14 percent to 18,298.88 points, the S&P 500 added 0.3 percent reaching 2,129.20 points, and the NASDAQ picked up 0.6 percent getting to 5,078.44 points.

On the NYMEX, the cost of June futures for WTI oil went down by $0.26 and made $59.43 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for June was down by $0.54 and reached $66.27 a barrel.

Yesterday on the Forex market, EUR/USD started to pull back from the daily MA and reached 1.12 today.

Anna Gorenkova
NordFX Analyst
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  #87  
Old 24-05-2015, 11:07
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 May 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the past week. We then regarded with suspicion the analysts’ opinions that unanimously predicted growth for all four pairs, and our doubts were justified:
- taking into account graphical analysis and an almost complete Inverted Hat pattern, it was suggested that on drawing the second brim of the hat, EUR/USD would sharply go downwards to 1.1070, which happened in fact;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was also fulfilled 100%. The pair predictably bounced off the upper boundary of the corridor and finished near the corridor’s lowest mark – 1.5500;
- over the last few months it was often said that USD/JPY would try to reach the height of 122.00. However, all that time the pair couldn’t pass the level of 120.50. Finally, the long awaited breakthrough happened, and the pair almost reached the coveted peak, finishing the week at 121.55;
- considering USD/CHF movements, we predicted a rise to at least 0.9290-0.9380. The pair quickly completed the set task and between Tuesday and Friday it remained in this corridor. Only at the end of the week did the pair move further up, taking after the US Consumer Price Index.

***

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it very well may be that EUR/USD’s story with the second brim of the Inverted Hat isn’t over yet. Judging by the experts’ opinions (↑ – 42%, → – 6%, ↓ – 52%), it can’t be ruled out that the pair will go up, although almost all the indicators point towards its fall (↑– 9%, → – 9%, ↓ – 82%). The level of 1.1000 may become a very strong support for the pair, from which it will move upwards. If the pair manages to overcome the resistance around 1.1110, it will enter into a sideways trend of 1.1110-1.1400 and continue to draw the hat pattern. On the other hand, if the indicators are right and EUR/USD, having broken through the support at 1.1000, goes down, it may reach the zone of 1.0660-1.0800;
- GBP/USD also appears to have reached a strong support level of 1.5500. The analysts each have their own opinion (↑ – 38%, → – 32%, ↓ – 30%), so do the indicators – on the H4 timeframe the consensus is for a downward movement, on D1 – for a rise. Thus, we’ll venture to suggest that in the next few days the pair will be fluctuating in the 1.5500-1.5800 range;
- the opinions of the experts also diverge regarding the future of the USD/JPY pair (↑ – 38%, → – 12%, ↓ – 50%). The indicators, however, are clearly on the side of the bulls (↑ – 91%, → – 9%, ↓ – 0%), which most probably will rely on the support of 120.70 and push the pair up to 122.00. The second strong support level will be 120.20;
- a strong inverse correlation between USD/CHF and EUR/USD has been mentioned repeatedly in the forecasts, which is why there are two possible scenarios for USD/CHF: the first is a rise to a very strong resistance level of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards; the second is a fall starting already on Monday. In this case, support will be at the levels of 0.9370 (weak) and 0.9300 (main).

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #88  
Old 31-05-2015, 12:17
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 1-5 June 2015


Let us start with a review of the forecast for the previous week:
- two scenarios were suggested for EUR/USD. One of them, supported by 52% of the analysts and 82% of the indicators, came true – the pair broke through the strong support at 1.1000, reached the zone of 1.0800 and, after a rebound, on Friday returned to where it had started – the level of 1.1000, which has now changed from support to resistance;
- there was total discord regarding GBP/USD among both analysts and indicators last week. Yet this pair also behaved decisively by immediately breaking through the strongest support at 1.5500 and running stepwise to the level below – the next support around 1.5300;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled and even exceeded expectations. The pair was predicted to go up to 122.00 while it actually managed to rise above 124.00, reaching the high of July 2007;
- the behavior of USD/CHF has become very predictable lately – a strong mirror correlation with EUR/USD. Something similar took place last week – USD/CHF was expected to rise to a very strong resistance level of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards, which did happen.

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the majority of experts (↑ – 69%, → – 12%, ↓ – 19%) predict a steady rise for the EUR/USD pair. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe concur. Yet on D1 they show the opposite – a downward movement. Furthermore, the systems of graphical analysis clearly draw a rebound downwards from the strong level of resistance 1.1000 to at least last week’s support around 1.0800. In fact, this appears to be a most likely scenario;
- there’s a real clash between the analysts and the indicators regarding the forecast for GBP/USD. Most of the former are for a rise (↑ – 61%, → – 15%, ↓ – 24%) whereas the latter predict a fall (↑ – 17%, → – 8%, ↓ – 75%). Considering that last week, contrary to the expectations, instead of rebounding off the support of 1.5500, GBP/USD broke through it, the pair can be expected to hold out in the range of 1.5250-1.5500 for at least a week this time. Already on Monday or Tuesday it should be clear whether the pair will take a timeout or continue its fall to 1.5000;
- both experts (↑ – 57%, → – 14%, ↓ – 29%) and indicators (↑ – 78%, → – 18%, ↓ – 4%) foretell USD/JPY to rise further to the next symbolic high of 126.00, which the pair reached last all of 15 years ago. This historic charge may turn out not so easy to execute, and the pair may have to keep charging, pushing off the support in the area of 123.20-123.60;
- yet again, there is nothing original for USD/CHF – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and no independent escapades. The most probable scenario is a rebound from 0.9400 to 0.9540. Or alternatively, a fall to 0.9280.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #89  
Old 07-06-2015, 16:13
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 8-12 June 2015


First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the majority of experts (↑ – 69%, → – 12%, ↓ – 19%) predicted a stable rise for EUR/US. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe concurred. However, the systems of graphical analysis drew a downward rebound to the level of resistance at 1.1000. The rebound did happen, though not as strong as expected – the pair rolled down by 100 points and then, validating the experts’ opinion, moved upwards again reaching the strong resistance level of 1.1280-1.1300;
- the forecast for the GBP/USD pair was fulfilled 100%. It was predicted that despite the obvious gravitation towards the 1.5000 mark, the pair would spend the whole week in a sideways trend, which happened. The pair ended up where it had started the week – around 1.5270;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was also 100% accurate. It was expected that when assailing the height of 126.00, the pair would stage charge after charge, pushing off the support around 123.60. There were three such charges the previous week, and only on Friday did the pair break through the Japanese defence line at 124.60, almost reaching the target after a powerful surge;
- nothing original was predicted for the USD/CHF pair – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and two possible scenarios: the first being a rebound from 0.9400 upwards, the alternative being a fall to 0.9280. The pair managed to execute both scenarios, after which it returned to the start mark of 0.9400.

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- an absolute majority of the experts and the indicators (61%) predict that EUR/USD will complete Friday’s correction and continue to move up to 1.1500. It should be noted, however, that the very same experts agree that in July-August the pair ought to move back down to at least 1.0400-1.0500. According to graphical analysis, on Monday the pair should grow to the level of 1.1190 and then dash downwards to 1.1000;
- the clash between the analysts and the indicators regarding the future of GBP/USD continues. Most of the former (77%) are for the pair’s rise while the latter (100%) are for its fall. Considering that last week the pair was in a sideways trend, it can be assumed that this week the pair will be fluctuating around the axis of 1.5270, remaining in a 1.5150-1.5450 range. On a larger timeframe, the pair can be expected to return to the area of 1.5000;
- last Friday, USD/JPY already arrived at the level of June 2007, and the next record high will be 135.00 where the pair was in the winter of 2002. However, for this purpose the pair must first take hold around 126.00. The technical indicators offer two possible Pivot Points – 124.30 and 125.40. It seems more probable that 124.30 will become a support level for USD/JPY, leaning on which the bulls will push the pair upwards to the area of 126.70-127.40;
- 70% of the experts, 61% of the H4 indicators as well as the systems of graphical analysis predict that USD/CHF will rise to at least 0.9530. The main support level should be at 0.9340, to which the pair may descend at the start of the week in order to shoot upwards then.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #90  
Old 09-06-2015, 18:29
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Crownless Krone
Currency Basket 2015-2016: How to Avoid Financial Setbacks
Causes and Effects of Black Thursday


Without question, the reliability of a currency concerns not only representatives of the IMF, central banks and other systemically important financial institutions but anyone deciding what country’s banknotes will at the very least safeguard their savings and ideally increase them.

For the past five or six years, currency ratings have been topped mostly by the Norwegian krone and the Swiss franc rather than by the US dollar or the euro. Back in 2008, HSBC analysts declared the Norwegian krone the most stable currency in the world. The same was said about the Swiss franc by nearly all world leading experts.

In 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reaffirmed its commitment to the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro and was prepared to buy foreign currency extensively in order to maintain it. Thus, taking into account the average interest rate Libor, the pair was supposed to be trading at 1.22-1.24 in the medium term. Rumor had it that the SNB might raise the EUR/CHF rate to 1.3-1.4 due to a sluggish economic situation in Switzerland.

Over the recent years, the Swiss National Bank kept the established rate. On 12 January 2015, SNB vice president Jean-Pierre Danthine officially called the cap on the franc a cornerstone of the country’s monetary policy. But already on Thursday, 15 January, catching the majority of financial market players off guard, the SNB decided to abandon all the restrictions for the currency market. As a result, the franc soared up almost instantaneously, even up to 30 percent at a time, which hasn’t happened for the past 25 years.

Who were the losers? In fact, there were many:
■ Firstly, it’s the SNB itself, whose assets were kept mainly in dollars and euros. As these currencies depreciated, the bank sustained a loss of about 60 billion.
■ Secondly, Switzerland’s economy was dealt quite a heavy blow. According to national stock market data, on Thursday, 15 January, the Swiss Market Index (SMI), comprising 20 largest companies, dropped 8.67 percent. One of the country’s main revenue items is exports. Swiss goods aren’t generally cheap, and if, for instance, Swiss chocolate becomes more expensive even by 15 percent, it will quickly start giving way to French and Belgian chocolate. The same applies to medicines and other export products. In Jean-Pierre Danthine’s words again, exporters may come short of 5 billion francs. On top of it, the share of tourism might contract whereas it currently stands at 7 percent of Switzerland’s GDP.
■ Thirdly, steep losses were sustained by those who had taken out Swiss franc loans as they got more expensive by 20 percent overnight. In France, for one, such contracts made 50 percent. Millions of private borrowers in other countries were affected by that turn of events – they considered the franc the most stable currency and thus believed that Swiss franc mortgages would be the most secure.
■ Deutsche Bank lost nearly €130 million due to the exchange rate, about the same as the US group Citibank in Europe and Barclays.

John Gordon, a leading analyst with international brokerage NordFX comments, “The exchange rate plunged so swiftly that brokers simply couldn’t close positions fast enough and those who traded against the franc suffered huge losses. The consequences for the Forex market were very grave, and hundreds of thousands of people worldwide said goodbye to their capitals.”

The next logical questions are why all that happened and who benefitted from it?

Some analysts tend to believe it was a plot by financiers (like what George Soros did with the British pound on Black Wednesday 1992). To prove it, they refer to a recoil 20 minutes after the fall of the dollar and euro rates – the profits gained by the initiators of the crash. They say that the initiators actually skimmed a 20 percent profit in just a few minutes!

Despite the fact that such a recoil did happen, most international experts hold a different view of the event. According to Alessandro Bee, a strategist at J. Safra Sarasin AG in Zurich (one of the oldest banks in Switzerland), the Swiss National Bank didn’t see any future for the franc rate cap, considering the strong US dollar and quantitative easing ahead in the eurozone.

Pick your reason (a possible Grexit, imminent ECB plans or the UK’s in-out EU referendum), the euro itself is facing a serious crisis and soon – so much so that, in Swiss bankers’ opinion, there’s just no time to contrive smart moves. Therefore, regardless of the losses, they decided to unpeg the franc from the euro. Otherwise, the sinking ‘euro Titanic’ would inevitably pull down the Swiss economy in its wake. Switzerland’s GDP certainly looks impressive with its $600 billion but, in comparison with the EU’s total GDP of 15,669 billion, it’s just too small to keep the euro afloat.

“What occurred has once more proved that it’s hardly possible to find an absolutely quiet and all-around sheltered haven for one’s savings,” says John Gordon from NordFX. “For instance, see what happened to the exchange rates of two of the most stable currencies supposedly. On January 15th, the Norwegian krone fell against the Swiss franc by over 17 percent. Krone investors lost majorly. Recently, I’ve come to realize once again that only a multi-currency basket can provide real capital protection. As for its makeup for the upcoming year or two, I wouldn’t concentrate on Norway’s krone. It’s just too dependent on oil prices and has dropped against the US dollar by about 25 percent over the past year alone. So, despite the Black Thursday developments, I still wouldn’t get rid of euros but actually stick with the classic combination – euros, US dollars and Swiss francs.

NordFX analysts believe that these three currencies aim at exchange rate parity around 1.0000, and the formation of such a congruent triangle should become the main trend for the next 6 months to a year. By the way, it’s not just our opinion but according NAB (National Australia Bank) forecasts, the EUR/USD exchange rate will reach 1.0000 already by this December and stay around it till at least the summer of 2016. Besides, SNB vice chairman Bruno Gehrig assured that the Swiss Central Bank would carry out large-scale interventions in order to curb growth of the domestic currency. To sum up, the tri-currency basket may not yield spectacular profits but, in any case, will help to prevent any tangible setbacks by acting like a gyroscope in a stable position regardless of the fluctuations on financial markets.”
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  #91  
Old 14-06-2015, 16:06
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 15-19 June 2015


First, a few words about the forecast for the past week:
- most experts and technical indicators (61%) predicted that EUR/USD would rise further to 1.1500. The pair indeed went up, quickly reached a very strong level of resistance in the zone of 1.1280-1.1300 and then rolled back, repeating the scenario of the first week of June and finishing the five days at 1.1260;
- last week saw a continued battle between the analysts and indicators regarding the future of GBP/USD. The former, for the most part (77%), were for the pair’s rise, the latter – for its fall. Looking at the chart, you can see how convincing the victory of the experts turned out to be – climbing up at an angle of 45 degrees, the pair reached the symbolic mark of 1.5550 by Friday;
- USD/JPY apparently decided that it was ascending too fast and, instead of the expected continuation of growth, made a swift nosedive, turning the 123.80 support level into resistance;
- USD/CHF was expected to fall to 0.9340 at the beginning of the week and then rebound upwards. The pair indeed went down but, dashingly breaking through the level of 0.9340, changed it from support to a Pivot Point under somewhat prevailing bearish tendencies.

Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be concluded:
- the majority of the experts (71%) predict that EUR/USD may fall to 1.1050, assuming the pair’s monthly sideways trend will be in a 1.1050-1.1350 corridor. The indicators on H4 and D1 also support the idea of a sideways trend with Pivot Points on the line of 1.1260. With this, they don’t rule out the pair may rise at the start of the week;
- as for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts are at a total loss (↑ – 29%, → – 29%, ↓ – 42%). The indicators however are clearly (83%) for the pair’s rise to the level of 1.5680. Support is around 1.5440 – if you consider graphical analysis, the pair is bound to fall to this level first;
- there’s no unanimity among the experts about USD/JPY either. The summary of their forecasts produces a 122.45-125.00 corridor with a Pivot Point at 123.50. On the D1 timeframe, the indicators totally agree with the analysts. As for the indications on H4, they show a possible fall to the bottom boundary of the corridor early in the week;
- as for the USD/CHF pair, 67% of the experts predict its rise at least to the main level of resistance of the previous week around 0.9400. In case the pair manages to break through this defence line, its next target will become 0.9500. However, the indicators on H1, H4, D1 and even W1 persistently assert the opposite, giving a distinct advantage to the bears. Acting usually as a third force, graphical analysis has sided with the human mind this time – it shows the pair’s rise to 0.9400 first and then its return to support at 0.9300 or 0.9250.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #92  
Old 21-06-2015, 17:53
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 22-26 June 2015


First, let’s review last week’s predictions:
- the forecast for the EUR/USD pair for the previous five days was based on the assumption of a monthly sideways trend in the range of 1.1050-1.1350 with Pivot Points along 1.1260. With that, the possibility of a rise at the start of the week was not excluded. Until Wednesday, EUR/USD followed the forecast to the letter but later, due to the news from the US Federal Reserve, it shot upwards, breaking through the level of resistance at 1.1350. Then, however, the pair quickly returned to the mentioned range and finished the week near its upper boundary;
- the analysts and the indicators were certain that GBP/USD would grow to 1.5680. Before that, according to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to fall to the support level around 1.5440. That actually happened – on Monday the pair fell to 1.5487 and then went upwards, reaching the target upper boundary by Wednesday. Later on, the news from England and the USA started to actively push the British pound even higher, which resulted in the pair reaching the level of last December;
- despite the reports from the USA, the USD/JPY pair managed to remain in the mentioned range of 122.45-125.00 with the Pivot Point at 123.50, fulfilling the forecast 100%;
- in the standoff between the analysts and the indicators about the future of USD/CHF, the latter came out to be right, supported by graphical analysis. As predicted, the pair first went up and then dropped down, reaching the support level at 0.9250. Then, due to the very same news from the USA, the pair decisively broke through it and turned the support into the upper level of a sideways trend.

Now regarding the forecast for this week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- the absolute majority of the experts tend to believe that EUR/USD will remain in the monthly sideways trend and thus will have to fall to its bottom boundary around 1.1200 and even further to 1.1160. Graphical analysis confirms this. The indicators are definitely (74%) against all of the above. Most likely, the pair’s movements early in the week will make it clear which of the forecasts should be trusted;
- the indicators show just one thing for GBP/USD – only an upward movement. The analysts, in turn, are again at a loss: ↑ – 33%, → – 12%, ↓ – 55%. Graphical analysis as an arbitrator supports the pair’s entering into a sideways trend and a fall to the levels of the beginning of May. Support will be around 1.5800 and 1.5740;
- most experts (60%), indicators (52%) and even graphical analysis agree that GBP/USD should first fall to 121.50-122.00 but their further forecasts diverge. Even with graphical analysis, there is an antagonism – the H4 timeframe clearly shows a rebound upward and a 122.00-124.50 sideways corridor while D1 pulls the pair further down to support at 120.00, the level off which the pair may rebound and rise even above 126.00;
- all forecasts of the experts regarding the USD/CHF pair continue to spin around 0.9250. At first, it was support, then became resistance, and now the experts consider it a Pivot Point. Yet the indicators propose a slightly lower Pivot Point around 0.9180-0.9200. In both cases the talk is about a sideways trend, the difference being that in the former case, the boundaries are set in the range of 0. 9080-0. 9390 while in the latter, upper resistance will be about 0.9250.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #93  
Old 05-07-2015, 16:28
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Yuan 2020: Buy or Sell?


A recent report by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) says that China’s national currency got firmly established in the top 5 of the most used currencies of the world’s economy. Moreover, the share of yuan payments globally has been rising sharply and exceeded 2 percent. Even more impressive is the value of yuan transactions in international trade – one of these days it will surpass 10 percent.

Over the past five years, the yuan has turned into a major regional currency, primarily due to China’s trade integration with the main developing markets. In East Asia, there’s actually a bloc of countries that have pegged their national currencies to the yuan more than to the US dollar. They include Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and South Korea.

The*Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts that by 2020 China will become the world’s second largest economy and Chinese population’s purchasing power will basically catch up with that of the United States.

HSBC experts echo the EIU opinion, albeit with an important reservation – The yuan is set to become a major world currency quite soon. However, it doesn’t mean that the yuan will replace the US dollar as a dominant reserve currency. Instead, it will help to create a more comprehensive system of reserve currencies, with the dollar, the euro and the yuan playing their respective part.

Pundits from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Washington, USA), one of the most renowned think tanks focused on international economics, say that the yuan would need 10 to 15 years to turn into a full-fledged reserve currency alongside the US dollar. Towards this end, China has to carry out a number of reforms and first of all open up the foreign and finance sectors of its economy.

Standard Chartered finance gurus differ on this and believe that by 2020 China won’t just catch up with the US economy but overtake it.

NordFX leading analyst John Gordon weighs in, “With this said, the key question is whether China’s government would want to deal with all the issues pertaining to turning the yuan into a global currency. On the one hand, China is obviously interested in becoming less dependent on the dollar but, on the other hand, it can be achieved only by loosening restrictions on its foreign exchange and capital markets at the very least. The fixed exchange rate shields the yuan from external speculative attacks. What will happen if this protection goes down and the yuan trades freely? Would China really want to see this rather risky process through?”

It’s no secret that from the very start of his first presidential term Barack Obama tried to put pressure on the Chinese government to quit devaluing the yuan rate artificially. But if the yuan is traded freely, Chinese products will get much more expensive, which, in turn, will hurt their competitiveness abroad and substantially change China’s export-orientated economy. Will Chinese leadership venture on this path?

“At NordFX, we closely watch everything related to financial markets, – continues John Gordon. – Judging by the latest rhetoric, Chinese authorities sound very decisive. It would suffice to recall that Yi Gang, Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced that China had already started talks with the IMF about including the yuan into the global reserve currency basket in the near future.”

According to this high-ranking official, the yuan meets all IMF requirements at this time. Hence, it appears that the issue has to do more with politics rather than economy.

As far as the Forex market is concerned, the main factor here is exchange rate fluctuations. Debating a five-year investment horizon for the yuan, many analysts predict it would rise by 15-17 percent. However, Yi Gang’s interview with Bloomberg in Beijing highlights two important things. First and undeniable is that the Chinese currency has been very stable over the last few years, and the other and thought-provoking is the assurance that the yuan will remain as stable in the future.

What’s also noteworthy is three main directions of China’s policy singled out in a Financial Times article:
- China tends to purchase fewer US Treasurys;
- China broadens its overseas expansion program;
- promotion of the yuan as a global currency is encouraged as it gradually sets China free from the dollar.

The Financial Times article seems to imply that the era of boundless privileges for the USA as the emitter of the main global currency is coming to an end. It is going to be replaced by a dual currency world – the US dollar and the yuan. However, due to the fact the yuan exchange rate was, is and will be fixed by the Chinese government for a while, the profitability of long-term yuan investments is rather questionable. Nonetheless, considering limited and controlled volatility, short-term speculations may actually appeal to traders.
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  #94  
Old 06-07-2015, 09:16
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 6-10 July 2015

First, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- the predictions for EUR/USD turned out to be correct – a further sideways trend with an advantage for the bears that were expected to push the pair down to the 1.1035 support level. Even a formidable gap over the weekend didn’t get in the way. After the gap, the pair quickly recovered its initial standing and started to follow the forecast – it descended to a 1.1032 support level under bearish pressure and then, confirming the prediction about the sideways trend, slowly continued upward to month old rates;
- as for GBP/USD, the analysts put their foot into it this time. For the first half of the week, as predicted, the pair tried to stay in the sideways corridor but then rushed downwards, finishing at a strong support level around 1.5550;
- the experts and the indicators agreed that the bulls would have the upper hand with USD/JPY and would push it upwards. It would have happened but for the gap on the weekend. In fact, the bulls had to clear up the consequences of that fall and succeeded, for the record. Already by mid-week, the pair returned to the sideways corridor it had stayed in since the beginning of June;
- USD/CHF finished the week exactly at the predicted level of 0.9400, albeit with some delay.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
One can be certain that this week the results of the Greek referendum would have the final say on currency fluctuations. For this reason, it would stand to reason to focus on the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies rather than indicator readings this time round:
- 64% of the reviewed experts don’t foresee a bright future for the euro. They believe that EUR/USD should fall by 100-200 points at least. Only 18% of the analysts claim that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Interestingly enough, they include an expert from Greece. But even his short-term optimism is overshadowed by the long-term forecast that that by the end of the summer the pair should get to a 1.0500-1.0700 level;
- the opinions of the analysts about GBP/USD have split almost equally – 44% argue for its fall, 44% for its rise and 12% remain undecided. According to graphical analysis, the pair should descend to 1.5430-1.5500 by the middle of the week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 range;
- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis stay unanimous that the Pivot Point for USD/JPY should be at 124.00, meaning that the pair is on the threshold of an upward leap to 125.00. Support can be at 122.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue to fall but this time to 0.9330 and possibly even lower to 0.9280.

In conclusion, it’s worth mentioning again that the accuracy of this forecast largely depends on a rather small country called Greece. Therefore, it would make sense to not only wait for the referendum outcome but also for ensuing reactions on financial markets.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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Old 12-07-2015, 17:49
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 13-17 July 2015

Let’s start with a review of last week’s forecast:
- regarding EUR/USD, 64% of the analysts expected the pair to fall by at least 100-200 points while 18% of the analysts claimed that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Following the news from Greece, both forecasts were fulfilled – the week started with a gap of 140 points, on Tuesday the drop made the mentioned 200 points, then the pair started to go up and reached 1.1215 by the end of the week;
- the predictions for GBP/USD were also correct. According to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to go down to 1.5430-1.5500 mid-week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 marks. All of that happened indeed – GBP/USD descended to 1.5430 on Tuesday, reached its low of 1.5330 on Wednesday and then soared up to 1.5555;
- the experts, the technical indicators and the graphical analysis readings were only partly right about USD/JPY. Their forecast about the 122.00 support level held up for the first half of the week, after which the pair had a dive to 120.45. Then it made a U-turn, rushed upwards and ended up at the level of the beginning of the week, i.e. 122.75;
- the USD/CHF pair was expected to fall to 0.9330, and it did happen. After putting up resistance for a while, the pair crashed down at the end of the week. It was able to stay at the 0.9330 target jusе for one minute.

Forecast for this week. Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- just like last week, fluctuations on the currency market will largely depend on the events in Greece. At the same time, most experts (62%) and indicators (53%) predict that the EUR/USD pair will rise and move to around 1.1365. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates a possible sideways trend with support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.1215;
- as for GBP/USD, the opinions of the analysts (54% vs 46%) and indicator readings (H4 for a rise, D1 for a fall) diverge. Graphical analysis promises a repeat of last week’s scenario – the pair falling to around 1.5350 and then rising to resistance at 1.5555. In case of a breakthrough, the target will be 1.5930;
- the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis are unanimous about USD/JPY returning to around 123.50. However, at the start of the week, a short-term fall to the support level of 122.00 can’t be ruled out;
- the opinions about USD/CHF are split, though the majority of the analysts (64%) believe that last Friday’s finishing level of 0.9380 will become the main resistance, off which the pair will be bouncing down towards 0.9330 or even lower to 0.9250. Graphical analysis, however, puts forward an alternative scenario with 0.9380 as support. The start of week is likely to reveal which of the two scenarios will actually play out.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #96  
Old 19-07-2015, 15:29
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 20-24 July 2015

The accuracy of last week’s forecast was significantly influenced by statistical reports and speeches by high-ranking officials, with the following outcomes:
- the support level for EUR/USD was set at 1.1000, and the pair tried to break through it for the first half of the week. It eventually happened on seemingly less important news from the USA, and by Friday the pair reached last May’s low;
- GBP/USD was expected to fall to around 1.5350, then rise and possibly break through the resistance level of 1.5555. The pair did fall, although not as much as predicted – to 1.5450. After that, following the speech by the head of the Bank of England, GBP/USD soared, broke through 1.5555 and turned this level into support;
- the forecast for USD/JPY can be considered 100% accurate. As put forward, the pair went down to the support level of 122.00 for a short while and then moved into the earlier mentioned zone with the Pivot Point at 123.50;
- there were two alternative scenarios for USD/CHF’s direction, and the start of the week was supposed to show which of them would play out. That was the case – it was clear already on Monday that the pair would follow the indications of graphical analysis and go up, making 0.9380 its initial support level.

Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the EUR/USD pair appears to be in a unique situation – 100% of the experts predict its rise and 100% of the indicators predict its fall. However, both suggest only minor fluctuations, which seems to be due to the lack of any major news in the upcoming week. Support is likely to be at 1.0750-1.0800 while resistance – at 1.1110. Graphical analysis confirms this, showing a sideways trend with some advantage for the bulls;
- GBP/USD is also expected to be in a sideways trend with the Pivot Point at 1.5615, support around 1.5550 and resistance at 1.5760. All of the experts and an ascending corridor, clearly visible on Н4, suggest that the pair should reach this level within the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis on H1, there may be a short-term drop to the support level before the pair rises;
- last week USD/JPY reached its 2007 high. Both experts and indicators are of the opinion that, with support at 123.75, the pair will continue to move upwards to 126.00 for some time. The next support level will be at 123.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is widely believed to continue to rise to 0.9600 and further to 0.9700. This week the main support will be around 0.9520.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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Old 27-07-2015, 06:07
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 27-31 July 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to be in a sideways trend with bulls prevailing and to move from support at 1.0750-1.0800 to resistance at 1.1110, which actually happened. Despite the pair being just short of the top boundary of the designated corridor, the forecast stood overall;
- the GBP/USD pair somewhat disappointed the analysts. The forecast was a sideways trend with support at 1.5555, which the pair tried to break during the first half of the week. On Thursday, it finally managed to do that and, as a result, fell to its 2-weeks old support around 1.5470;
- as predicted, USD/JPY tried to continue its rise at the beginning of the week but, with the bullish influence weakened, the pair entered a sideways trend, moving in a very narrow corridor and relying on support at 123.75;
- the lack of news last week affected the USD/CHF pair – it was unable to reach the desired height of 0.9700 and on Thursday fell to the expected level of support around of 0.9520, rebounded off it and returned to the rates of the start of the week.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- a look at the H4 chart for EUR/USD would make it clear that the technical indicators will vote for the pair’s further rise. However, on D1 the picture is different – only 52% of the indicators echo this, while 48% hold the opposite view. Furthermore, 85% of the experts also vote for the pair’s fall, with the target as a drop to at least of 1.0850 or even further to 1.0800. Graphical analysis predicts a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 in the first half of the week and a rise to 1.1115 in case the resistance level gets broken through;
- according to 80% of the analysts, GBP/USD is likely to fall further and transition to 1.5335-1.5450, with 75% of the indicators supporting human reasoning. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair will fall only to 1.5400, after which it will continue to move up in an ascending corridor visible on D1;
- the analysts believe that USD/JPY won’t abandon its attempts to go up to at least 125.00. Both technical and graphical analysis readings agree with this general trend. Support will be around 123.65, with the next level at 122.50;
- as for the USD/CHF pair, 65% of the analysts expect it to rise to 0.9700. The indicators also confirm that the pair will try to finish what it failed to do last week. Graphical analysis on D1 paints this picture – first, a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target height of 0.9700, and then… a crash to a 0.9325 support level. The H1 and H4 timeframes spell such a crash much sooner.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #98  
Old 02-08-2015, 12:09
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 3-7 August 2015

First, a review of the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD based on graphical analysis turned out to be nearly perfect – a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 and a rise to 1.1115 if the pair broke through resistance. Last week’s chart displays all of that – the sideways trend, the break through resistance and the pair’s rise to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900;
- graphical analysis was also correct in regards to GBP/USD. It indicated that the pair would move in an ascending corridor visible on D1. This is precisely what happened – all week long the pair climbed up slowly, sticking to the bottom boundary of the corridor;
- the analysts and technical analysis were unanimous about USD/JPY – the pair was supposed to continue its effort to reach 125.00. It did try but failed to get over strong resistance at 124.50 once again;
- graphical analysis was close to perfection in its predictions for USD/CHF as well. The D1 scenario included a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target level of 0.9700 and a further crash to support at 0.9325. It all happened, though the crash was less dramatic – to 0.9550.

Forecast for the coming week.*Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- it’s rather difficult to sum up the analysts’ views on EUR/USD but giving it a shot, it can be said that the pair’s Pivot Point will be at 1.0970. The pair will be oscillating around this line in a 1.0820-1.1115 range. The indicators also show neutral behavior for the pair while there’s no clarity with graphical analysis. Hopefully, the start of the week will shed more light on this;
- all of the analysts predict that GBP/USD will be in a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and support at 1.5520. A rise is foretold by 74% of the indicators, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to it, there may be a slight fall initially, after which the pair will be pushing off support at 1.5510, go up to 1.5830 and return to the support level. However, the return may happen 10-14 August instead of this week;
- as for USD/JPY, only 11% of the experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a drop to around 123.00. Graphical analysis proposes the following scenario: first down to 123.40, then a rise to at least 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to a 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators on H4 and D1 show that the pair will start moving upwards right away on Monday;
- the analysts are quite vague about USD/CHF, unlike the indicators that give a clear and almost unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise to a 0.9730-0.9750 range. Support will be at 0.9510.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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Old 09-08-2015, 12:05
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Forex Forecast for 10-14 August 2015


First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the predictions for EUR/USD panned out. According to the forecast, the pair was to maintain a sideways trend, oscillating around the 1.0970 Pivot Point. Support was set around 1.0820. Throughout the week, the bears repeatedly pressed the pair down to that level but gave up after a few failed attempts to break through it. So the pair finished the week at a 1.0960-1.0970 Pivot Point;
- the sideways trend predicted for GBP/USD lasted only until Thursday. By the end of the week, the pair managed to break through the support around 1.5510-1.5520 and fell briefly, hitting the bottom at 1.5425;
- the indicators and 11% of the experts were correct about USD/JPY. The former predicted that the pair would start going up right away on Monday while the latter claimed that the pair would reach 125.00 as a result of such movement. Then, according to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to crash sharply, and it did on Friday on the news from the USA, reaching a strong support level at 124.15;
- almost all the indicators predicted that USD/CHF would rise to around 0.9730-0.9750, and the pair not only made it to that level but actually surpassed it by 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 36% of the experts believe that the pair will drop to 1.0800 while another 45% say that the pair will break this barrier and go further down to 1.0650-1.0700 support. The indicators on D1 concur. The remaining 19% of the experts and the indicators on H4 insist on a further short-term upward trend to 1.1000-1.1050, after which the direction of the pair’s movement should change;
- most analysts and the indicators predict that GBP/USD will fall further and transition into a 1.5340-1.5400 zone. At the same time, while in agreement with this, graphical analysis elaborates that before falling, GBP/USD will stay in a 1.5460-1.5540 sideways corridor for some time and try to break through resistance in order to reach 1.5800. Even if it happens, the bulls shouldn’t celebrate as the pair will go down sharply in 2-3 days anyway;
- the USD/JPY pair is very likely to try to reach its June high and even surpass it slightly by reaching 126.00. After this, according to graphical analysis, the pair will be moving sideways within a 124.15-125.80 range and step up efforts to go down to a 122.50 support level;
- the experts, the indicators and graphical analysis agree that USD/CHF will enter a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point. The bulls, on the other hand, will not cease their attempts to reach a 1.0000 hallmark, even though the main resistance level for this week will be 0.9900. Support will be at 0.9800 and 0.9710.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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Old 16-08-2015, 09:29
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Generalized Forex Forecast for 17-21 August 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- most analysts predicted that EUR/USD would drop, and only 19% of them mentioned a continuing upward trend. Experience has shown that the majority opinion isn’t always right – on Monday, the pair started to rise sharply, broke through resistance at 1.1050 and settled down at July’s high of 1.1210;
- the situation with GBP/USD was similar. The forecast closest to reality was given only by graphical analysis – contrary to the analysts, it predicted a sideways trend with support at 1.5460 and a drive to break through resistance at 1.5540. This eventually happened, and the resistance level turned into support;
- as expected, USD/JPY attempted to reach June’s high right away but only managed to conquer a 125.25 height. Then, in full accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair tumbled down and entered a sideways trend with support around 124.15;
- overall, the forecast for USD/CHF can be counted as fulfilled – a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point, resistance at 0.9900 and support at 0.9800. The pair moved within this range for the first half of the week, then dropped to the second support around 0.9710 and continued its sideways movement.

Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- regarding EUR/USD, 23% of the analysts support a continuation of the upward trend with the target of 1.1280, which is echoed by 56% of the indicators. But 23% of the analysts believe that the pair should descend while 46% of them indicate a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.1110. At the same time, the indicators and graphical analysis point to a possible fall to support at 1.1035 early in the week. The next support will be around 1.0960;
- most analysts predict GBP/USD to fall to 1.5550. With this, the indicators and graphical analysis suggest that the pair should first reach 1.5690. The inclined line of support for such rise is clearly visible on the H1 and H4 charts. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates that within the next two weeks the pair will make a few attempts to break support at 1.5550 and, if successful, it will fall to 1.5200. After that, there will be a rebound to 1.5650;
- there’s basically unanimity regarding USD/JPY – sideways movement in a 123.75-125.30 corridor with a Pivot Point at 124.60. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that one of the pair’s attempts to reach a 126.00 height may be successful. This should happen at the very end of August;
- the USD/CHF pair is very likely to continue its upward trend which started in the last decade of June. This ascending corridor is best visible on H4. The pair is currently near its lower boundary of 0.9710, off which it’s expected to bounce up towards 0.9900. After that, USD/CHF may enter a sideways trend with support around 0.9500, as was the case in March-April of this year.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #101  
Old 23-08-2015, 11:23
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Forex Forecast for 24-28 August 2015


Let’s review the forecast for the previous week:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to go down to the 1.1035 support at the start of the week, which happened. The pair fell to the said level 18 August. Next day, after a rebound, the pair rose to the set target of 1.1280 where it stayed most of Friday;
- the forecast for GBP/USD also stood. First, the pair reached 1.5690 and then sharply descended to around 1.5550 (1.5560 to be precise). On Tuesday, the predicted bounce towards the top boundary of the ascending trend (1.5690) took place, and the pair finished the week at that very level;
- the sideways trend predicted for USD/JPY lasted only for the first half of the week. However, the USA and China supported the bears, and the pair ended up 250 pips below the level of the start of the week;
- there was a similar situation with USD/CHF. On Wednesday, the bears simply derailed the pair, and only an extremely strong support level of 0.9480 was able to stop that dramatic fall. The pair has been trying to break through this level since spring.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and brokerages as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- most analysts believe that once EUR/USD reaches a strong resistance level of 1.1460, it will remain in a sideways trend with support at 1.1150 for some time. An alternative view suggests that EUR/USD will fall to 1.0840 after the current correction. As for the indicators, H1, H4 and D1 all point exclusively upwards. Even W1 shows a sideways trend as a compromise. Graphical analysis on H1, however, insists on the pair’s decline to at least 1.1290 at the start of the week;
- for the GBP/USD pair, 80% of the experts and 85% of the indicators predict a further up trend with a 1.5800 target at the very least. This forecast is supported by graphical analysis on Н4. The H1 timeframe, however, indicates a continuation of the short-term sideways trend within a 1.5650-1.5715 range at the beginning of the week. In case of a downward breakthrough, the key support should be at 1.5550;
- as for USD/JPY, 78% of the experts agree that the pair’s fall will end around 122.00, followed by a bounce all the way to resistance at 124.60. Should the pair break through the 122.00 support level, it can easily go down to 120.20. Graphical analysis seems to indicate a very similar scenario – a short-term descent to around 120.40-121.20, followed by a rebound to 124.60;
- regarding USD/CHF, both experts and graphical analysis propose that the pair’s rise will start from 0.9400 and continue to a 0.9700-0.9750 range. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the ascent will begin right away on Monday. As for a longer-term forecast for the coming months, USD/CHF may fall to 0.9100, reverse and reach the 1.0000 hallmark after all.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #102  
Old 30-08-2015, 14:29
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Forex Forecast for 31 August - 4 September 2015

The latest significant developments on global markets caused bursts of unexpectedly strong volatility. However, experience shows that everything falls back into place eventually, and forecasts, which initially seemed to be destined for the dustbin of history, actually end up being correct. Last week was just the case:
- almost all indicators predicted that EUR/USD would rise, and the experts forecast a 1.1460 peak. In reality, over the previous week, this peak changed hands between the bulls and the bears several times, thus alternately becoming resistance and support. Defying the analysts’ forecasts at the start of the week, the pair finished the week as they had predicted – around 1.1150, the bottom boundary of the weekly corridor;
- the prediction of GBP/USD’s continuing upward trend towards 1.5800 proved correct. Having tested this level on Monday and Tuesday, GBP/USD rebounded towards the bottom boundary of the said corridor and, after several attempts to break through it on Wednesday, plunged below the key support level. The pair spent just a few hours around 1.5550 and then reached this July’s low;
- the behavior of USD/JPY on Monday, 24 August, was reminiscent of a kamikaze pilot. As expected, the pair descended to 120.20 smoothly but then within just one hour (!) it dropped by almost 400 points, reaching January’s low. As the experts predicted, the fall was short-lived, and the pair regained 550 points upwards very soon;
- the USD/CHF pair once again demonstrated an inverse correlation with EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF was short of the predicted level of 0.9700 by a meager 30 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- most analysts and indicators agree that this week’s Pivot Point for EUR/USD will be at 1.1200. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the pair will rise to 1.2550 at the start of the week before falling to 1.1000. After that, its fluctuations should be confined to a 1.1000-1.1150 range. An alternative point of view, supported by graphical analysis on H1 and 25% of the experts, suggests that the initial rise will be much larger, perhaps even to 1.1480;
- at the start of the week, the GBP/USD pair may test the low within a 1.5330-1.5350 range a few times. After that, according to 65% of the experts and graphical analysis, the pair should rise and regain the bulk of its losses sustained last week. The resistance levels are 1.5550 and 1.5640;
- in their forecasts for USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators suggest that the bulls will be very active and push the pair up to 123.30. As a result, the pair should reach at least 122.20-122.50 which will become the resistance level for an ensuing sideways trend. The main support will be at 119.50, with the next level at 118.00;
- all indicators on H1, H4 and D1 show a rise for USD/CHF. The forecasts of the experts and graphical analysis are split about 50/50. For instance, graphical analysis on Н4 suggests that the pair should fall to support around 0.9390 at the start of the week and only then rebound upwards to resistance at 0.9560. Analysis on D1, on the other hand, indicates that during the week, USD/CHF should rise steadily to 0.9900 and further to 1.0000 in September.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #103  
Old 01-09-2015, 18:43
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Chronicles of Euro Nosedive
What to expect from EUR/USD in 2015-2016

Beyond all doubt, the vast majority of broker companies and traders consider EUR/USD as one of the major trading assets. The pair’s close correlation with key macroeconomic indices allows for quite precise long-term forecasts that, in turn, provide fairly good guidance for currency market players and permit them to open positions following a current global trend.

The EUR/USD pair reached a peak of 1.6000 in 2008, after which its cyclical downturn began, accompanied by an active fight between the bulls and the bears. Nowadays, the pair is at the levels of 1996-1997 but apparently it’s not the bottom and the fall is set to continue.

The situation in Greece vividly exposed the eurozone’s stability issues. Even if the Greek debt disaster was managed (not resolved but at least put off for the time being), in Bloomberg’s view, the euro’s appeal as a global reserve currency has been seriously questioned.

According to Bloomberg, since the start of the debt crisis five years ago, the share of the euro in the global currency basket has contracted by about a third and makes just 22% now. Central banks tend to buy dollars and yens instead of gold and euros. Daisuke Karakama, Mizuho Corporate Bank market economist, who also worked in the European Commission, says that central bank chiefs are no-nonsense about the euro’s possible collapse. For the last quarter of 2014 alone, reserve managers of central banks sold nearly 100 billion euro.

Up to a point, ECB President Mario Draghi welcomed the easing of the monetary policy and the decline of the euro, hoping to shore up the eurozone's economy, but that scenario appeared alarming to his counterparts in other countries. This year the euro has already shed about 7% of its value, and, in Société Générale strategist D. Fairmont’s opinion, the main problem currently is that we don’t foresee the bottom for this currency. Capital flight from the EU is on the rise, and by 2017 it can reach an astronomical amount of 4 trillion euro. At this point, the world’s financial agencies and banks are revising their forecasts for the euro at a run.

Morgan Stanley strategists say that they still have a bearish outlook for the euro since low yielding European assets encourage local funds to move their investments abroad. The interest-rate-growth differentials favor the dollar. According to Morgan Stanley’s predictions, the euro will reach parity with the dollar at the end of this year. The rate for the end of 2016 is forecast at 0.9500 while by the end of 2017 the euro is expected to fall to the level of 2001-2002 and cost 85-95 US cents. Deutsche Bank voices similar figures. With this, National Australia Bank experts are more pessimistic about the euro’s prospects and believe that the EUR/USD ratio can reach 1.0000 already in the middle of this fall.

John Gordon, leading expert with international broker NordFX, says, “The summary of the opinions of a host of influential monetary officials may suggest that the euro will drop even more rapidly and EUR/USD can get to a 0.8200-0.8400 low by mid-2016, followed by a gradual rise to 0.9000.”

As for the eurozone economy, the European Commission still seems to reckon (not without reason) that a weakened euro will eventually improve the competitive performance of European goods and increase eurozone GDP. “Europe’s economic outlook is a little brighter today,” announced Pierre Moscovici, French Finance Minister and European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs. Brussels believes that GDP growth will make 1.3% in 2015 and continue to 1.9% in 2016.
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  #104  
Old 06-09-2015, 19:09
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Forex Forecast for 7-11 September 2015


Let’s review last week’s predictions:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by at least 95%. As predicted, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200. In accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair went up at the start of the week and then made a U-turn. However, the pair’s volatility was weaker than assumed;
- pursuant to the forecast, GBP/USD tested the minimum level around 1.5330-1.5350 several times at the beginning of the week. The testing was so successful that, after breaching support and defying the analysts’ expectations, the pair descended even more to the low of 1 June;
- in the forecasts about USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators predicted the bulls to have the upper hand but that turned out to be incorrect. Already by 1 September, the pair reached the first support level, entered into a sideways trend and, having breached support at 119.50, continued downwards at the end of the week;
- as for USD/CHF, the indicators staunchly supporting the pair’s rise were right. So were 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1, although the pair’s growth wasn’t as rapid as the latter had predicted.

Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- most analysts’ expectation for EUR/USD is a sideways trend with the main support around 1.0925. At the same time, 18% of the experts say that this support may be broken through and the pair may fall to 1.0812. The indicators on H5 and D1 confirm the bears’ advantage while graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a 1.1140 Pivot Point for some time;
- the indicators on all main timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 show that GBP/USD will fall further to 1.5100. However, considering that the pair is currently at the bottom boundary of a descending corridor, there may be a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225-1.5255 first. If it’s broken, the pair could start moving upward and return to around 1.5325;
- it goes without saying that all the indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. Graphical analysis, on the contrary, suggests that the pair has already reached a strong enough support level and a rebound to at least 119.80 (forecast on Н1) or even higher to 120.50 (forecast on Н4) could follow shortly. The opinions of 83% of the experts add that USD/JPY will be moving along the ascending corridor and rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be around 118.40;
- as for USD/CHF, 74% of the indicators, 100% of the experts and graphical analysis insist on the pair’s rise in its efforts to achieve the 1.0000 landmark in the next few weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially taking into account what the pair has done for the past 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680. If it’s broken, the bears will take over once again and the coveted peak will be out of reach for a while.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #105  
Old 13-09-2015, 15:57
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Forex Forecast for 14-18 September 2015


First, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- the two-week-old prediction about EUR/USD’s upward drive panned out. In line with the forecast made seven days ago, the pair tried to hold in its sideways trend for some time but then the bulls got a distinct advantage and, instead of falling, the pair shot upwards, first turning the 1.1140 Pivot Point into support and then leaving it far behind altogether;
- a possible scenario for GBP/USD was a bounce to the upper boundary of the descending corridor, breaking through it and rising to around 1.5325, which actually happened. The surge was so big that the indicated level turned into support. The pair bounced off it and went further up on Wednesday;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. After rebounding from the bottom boundary of the three-week-old horizontal corridor, the pair immediately went up and finished the five days exactly where expected – around 120.50;
- both indicators and experts turned out to be correct about USD/CHF’s upward strive. The key support level was set at 0.9680. While leaning on it, the pair managed to reach 0.9820 twice mid-week, after which it returned to its initial position.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it appears impossible to make a clear forecast about EUR/USD this week. Thus, 45% of the analysts, the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on H1 insist on the pair’s further rise at least to strong resistance around 1.1450. The remaining 55% of the experts predict a fall to 1.1100 or even lower to 1.1000. It looks like next week one of these scenarios will play out – either the pair rises to the mentioned level of resistance and rebounds downwards, or it just falls. The start of the week is most likely to unveil which scenario will come true;
- a similar scenario can be foreseen for the GBP/USD pair. According to 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on all the main timeframes, a 1.5480-1.5500 range will present very strong resistance and GBP/USD won’t be able to overcome it despite all its efforts. Therefore, in the next few days, the pair is expected to fall to 1.5335, then rebound to 1.5420 and finally reach last week’s low around 1.5170. An alternative point of view suggests a continuation of the ascending corridor and the pair’s rise to 1.5680;
- the indicators and 66% of the experts predict that USD/JPY will stay in its 3-week-old sideways trend with fluctuations around a 120.60 Pivot Point. Graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 doesn’t offer any forecasts, which confirms the prediction of the sideways movement. The main support will be around 118.60, with resistance around 121.40. However, 34% of the analysts point out that the pair may return to the area above 123.00;
- most analysts, indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair’s drive to reach the landmark of 1.0000. The nearest target is to consolidate in a 0.9800-0.9900 range. As before, support will be around 0.9680, with the next level 100 points lower.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #106  
Old 20-09-2015, 16:45
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Forex Forecast for 21-25 September 2015


First, a review of the previous week:
- there were two possible scenarios for EUR/USD – either a rise to resistance around 1.1450 and a downward bounce or just a fall. In fact, both options played out – at the beginning of the week, the pair started to fall, then it went up to the 1.1450 resistance and, after a rebound, crashed to last Monday’s starting point;
- GBP/USD accurately followed the prediction during the first half of the week – having knocked on resistance around 1.5480, the pair rolled down to its support at 1.5335 and shot upwards. However, on the news from Europe, the rebound was so powerful that the pair finally broke through the resistance at 1.5480-1.5500, turning it into support and reaching the area it had been in for the second half of the summer;
- as predicted, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend it had entered at the end of August and narrowed both its lower and upper oscillation boundaries by 40 points;
- USD/CHF didn’t meet the experts’ expectation of a rise and actually spent the week in a sideways movement. Although, on Thursday, following the Federal Reserve’s announcements, the pair did drop but resumed its normal course already on Friday.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Generalizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- a two-week ascending channel is clearly visible on H4 for EUR/USD. The pair ended up at its bottom boundary 1.1300 last Friday. Rather strong support is located nearby at 1.1280. For this reason, almost all experts and indicators agree that the pair will be approaching the channel’s upper boundary of 1.1450 in the next few days. Further, opinions diverge – 57% of the analysts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis on H1 suggest that the pair will continue its upward movement to a 1.1500-1.1550 area while the rest 43% of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 predict that the pair will transition into a sideways trend with a 1.1360 Pivot Point;
- most of what’s been written above for EUR/USD can be applied to GBP/USD which is now at the bottom boundary of an ascending corridor and close to strong support at 1.5500. The pair should rebound off this level to the upper boundary at 1.5700. After that, the pair will either break it and hike 100 more points up or transition into a sideways trend;
- both experts and indicators forecast that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend with prevailing bearish tendencies. The Pivot Point will be at 119.80, the first support – at 119.00 and the next support level – at 118.45. Resistance will be at 121.00 and 121.50;
- the majority of the analysts and the indicators agree that USD/CHF will spend this week in a 0.9550-0.9675 corridor where the pair was end of August - beginning of September. Only 18% of the analysts believe that the pair will go up to a 0.9675-0.9775 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #107  
Old 24-09-2015, 10:13
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How to Survive Global Financial Apocalypse


Can the latest events in the world be viewed as precursors of an economic collapse on a global scale? Currencies soar and crash, there’re bearish forecasts for the markets of almost all large countries, falling oil prices and plunging shares of major companies. Many respectable analysts believe that this is just the beginning and the worst of it will be staggering.

Predictions suggest that in the next 5 to 10 years, valuable securities will become literally value-less as their worth is steadily moving toward zero. According to Marc Faber, analyst, investment fund manager and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, the US stock market could fall 20-40 percent. Henry Blodget, editor-in-chief of Business Insider, raises the ante by 10 percent as he thinks that the drop can make 30-50 percent.

Such a gloomy prospect is awaiting not only securities but also money. In his interview on Bloomberg TV, Marc Faber said, “…the whole financial system will one day collapse…, …a lot of government bonds will either default or they will have to print so much money that the purchasing power of money will depreciate very rapidly."

”With these stupid governments printing trillions and trillions of new currency units,” says investor and Casey Research chairman Doug Casey, “it’s building up to a catastrophe of historic proportions. Most of the banks in the world are bankrupt.”

It would be a different matter, were it just banks! In the words of Egon von Greyerz (Switzerland), founder and managing partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG, “No major nation in the West can repay its debts. The same is true for Japan and most of the emerging markets. Europe is a failed experiment for socialism and deficit spending. China is a massive bubble, in terms of its stock markets, property markets and shadow banking system. Japan is also a basket case and the U.S. is the most indebted country in the world…”

Von Greyerz continues to build up pressure, “So we will see twin $200 trillion debt and $1.5 quadrillion derivatives implosions. That will lead to the most historic wealth destruction ever in global stock, with bond and property markets declining at least 75-95 percent.”

Let’s tally up all the above:
- oil prices are falling;
- real estate is becoming cheaper;
- banks are bankrupt;
- inflation devalues currencies;
- the stock market is sinking;
- forget about bonds – junk is more expensive these days.

At this point, the burning question of 19th-century utopian philosophers comes to mind. “What is to be done?” – they inquired in vain. Come the 21st century, very same Marc Faber told Bloomberg TV that he’d go for precious metals.

Well, you could take up the renowned expert’s advice but for the IMF data that central banks gradually reduce their purchases of gold. For instance, last May only seven tons of gold were bought mainly by Russia and Kazakhstan.

According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, as of late, gold supply by far exceeds demand, which results in constantly falling gold prices. Dropping about 40 percent against the maximum, all summer long the price tried to break through the key support level of $1,140 per ounce and managed to do so at the end of July. Then the price returned to around $1,140. However, it’s the first step that counts – investors realized that the price could well go below $1,000 and even more down. (Mind that only 15 years ago this precious metal was traded just at about $300.)

Nonetheless, despite the seemingly unfavorable current situation, gold investments can turn out a sound decision ultimately. F. William Engdahl, American political economist, says that the prices on the New York and London exchanges don’t reflect the actual worth of gold as a reserve currency and a standard of monetary stability. He believes that large private and central banks in the West are artificially restraining gold prices as more expensive gold, and in the hands of others, threatens the dollar as the main global reserve currency.

“Nowadays China exerts more influence over world exchanges,” says John Gordon, leading analyst at international brokerage NordFX. “The events of the past few months clearly prove this. At the beginning of the year, experts predicted that feverish purchasing of Chinese stocks (which was inevitable) could result in the transfer of assets into gold. Thus, already in May, China and the Shanghai Gold Exchange established the world’s largest gold investment fund to the tune of 16 billion dollars. The fund will invest in gold mining projects not only in China but along all of the Eurasian Silk Road, including Russia. These two countries – China and Russia – seek to turn their national currencies into global or regional reserve currencies and are eager to back them up with the metal. Therefore, they’re likely to increase their gold stock and push the price of gold up by doing that.”

“It’s noteworthy that China and Russia are the world’s first and third largest gold producers respectively. South Africa is the sixth, Uzbekistan is the eighth, with Kazakhstan also among the leaders. All these states are either BRICS members or part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that is entities that follow an independent policy in contrast to the current system based on an inflated dollar. This, of course, cannot but alarm the proponents of the dollar rule – Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury.” In conclusion John Gordon says, “At this time, the West still has the upper hand but the balance is slowly but surely shifting to the East. I envision the deciding showdown quite soon.”
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  #108  
Old 27-09-2015, 10:33
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Forex Forecast for 28 September - 2 October 2015


Let’s review last week’s forecast:
- the EUR/USD pair entered a sideways trend after breaking through support around 1.1280 and turning it into resistance;
- contrary to all the predictions, the GBP/USD pair went down sharply, returning to the lows of the beginning of June and the beginning of September. Therefore, if there even was a sideways trend, it was in a very large range of 1.5175-1.5815;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100%. The pair spent the whole week in a sideways trend in the precisely set boundaries of 119.00-121.00;
- the USD/CHF pair was also predicted a sideways trend by 82% of the analysts but experience has it that the opinion of the majority isn’t always correct. So, this time it’s 18% of the analysts who were right insisting that the pair would move up and transition to 0.9675-0.9775. The pair tried to break even higher but finished the week near the upper boundary of the indicated range.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 72% of the experts and indicators on D1 predict a fall to 1.1000. Alternatively, 28% of the analysts and indicators on H4 insist that the pair will return to resistance at 1.1450. As for graphical analysis, in the short term, it predicts a fall to support at 1.1120 followed by a return to resistance at 1.1210;
- all the indicators point to a downward movement for GBP/USD. The analysts differ – only 20% of them agree with the indicators and believe that the fall will continue to at least 1.5000 while 80% of the analysts are certain that the pair has already reached its low and should now rebound towards resistance at 1.5340. Graphical analysis also shows that GBP/USD will remain in a sideways trend for some time, fluctuating between 1.5150 and 1.5340;
- most experts and indicators on H4 predict that USD/JPY will move upwards to 123.00. In this case, support will be at 121.30. However, according to 12% of the analysts and indicators on D1, the pair will lean on support at 119.00 and continue its four-week sideways trend. The next support in this case will be 118.50;
- the majority of both analysts (63%) and indicators believe that USD/CHF has resumed its movement to the 1.0000 landmark. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this and specifies that fluctuations will be in a 0.9670-1.0100 range. An alternative view is that the pair will take a breather and stay in a sideways trend within a 0.9740-0.9840 range.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #109  
Old 29-09-2015, 15:17
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Thinking about creating a micro account with this broker to start things off. What would be the minimum investment required please?
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  #110  
Old 04-10-2015, 16:50
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Forex Forecast for 5-9 October 2015


First, a review of the previous week:
- this time round, the forecast for EUR/USD given by graphical analysis panned out – first, the pair was to go down to 1.1120 and then return to resistance at 1.1210, which happened. After that, the pair moved sideways, turning 1.1210 into a Pivot Point where it finished the week;
- those 80% of the analysts who said that GBP/USD had already reached its low were right. Despite all the efforts by the bulls, a rebound didn’t occur. Instead, the pair followed the predictions of graphical analysis and stayed in a sideways trend all of the last week;
- in line with the forecast of the 12% of the analysts and the indicators on D1, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend. Besides, the D1 chart clearly shows that, after descending from a double top to last spring’s levels and reducing its volatility, USD/JPY formed an almost perfect pennant (or a symmetrical triangle) over the last 6 weeks;
- one of the forecasts for USD/CHF claimed that the pair would continue its sideways movement, which did happen. At the same time, as predicted, support was at 0.9670 (the pair’s main support level for the past 4 weeks). The other mentioned level 0.9740 served as a Pivot Point.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- both analysts and indicators predict that EUR/USD will stay in its sideways trend. The bottom boundaries are set at 1.1100 and 1.1000. Resistance is likely to be at 1.1300 and 1.4600;
- most experts believe that GBP/USD will also be moving horizontally. The main support level will be at 1.5100, with the main resistance around 1.5300. Graphical analysis on H4, in turn, shows that the pair may bounce higher to around 1.5360, as it happened 8 and 9 September. Alternatively, 17% of the analysts don’t rule out that 1.5100 is still not the bottom and the pair may drop even lower to 1.1470;
- considering that USD/JPY has formed an absolutely symmetrical triangle on D1, the indicators continue to point to a sideways trend. However, the W1 timeframe shows that the triangle isn’t that symmetrical but rather ascending. This pattern is usually indicative of an upward breakout, and 70% of the experts agree with it, believing that the pair should reach at least 122.00 in the long run. The main support remains at 118.50;
- regarding USD/CHF, the lows of 24 August, 18 September and 2 October allow drawing a bullish support line. This is corroborated by 67% of the analysts and indicators on W1 – in the medium term, the bulls will maintain advantage and the pair will be moving up to 0.9900. At the same time, indicators on D1 suggest that the pair will stay in a horizontal trend with a 0.9740 Pivot Point for another week.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #111  
Old 11-10-2015, 10:41
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Forex Forecast for 12-16 October 2015


First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- as expected, EUR/USD spent the week within the indicated boundaries. The bulls had a distinct advantage and, after two failed attempts on Thursday, they managed to break through the first resistance level of 1.1300 on Friday, repeating the scenario of the first ten days of September;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was fulfilled 100%. As predicted, bouncing off support around 1.5100, the pair went up, broke through the main resistance of 1.5300, spent some time around 1.5360 and Friday evening returned to 1.5300;
- the indicators insisted USD/JPY should continue its sideways trend, which happened. Apparently, the bulls and the bears got so weary of fighting that were able only to continue to draw the symmetrical triangle, which they’ve been busy with for the past 7 weeks;
- the USD/CHF pair was quite unpredictable. First, as suggested, it moved up, then turned the 0.9740 Pivot Point into resistance and entered a sideways trend, finishing the week by falling to support around 0.9590.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- regarding EUR/USD, 67% of the analysts agree with the indicators that the pair will reach September’s high of 1.1460. Now the pair is at the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, and there are two possible scenarios – either the given boundary line becomes support and the pair immediately goes up, or the scenario of the first half of September is repeated and the pair rebounds to the lower boundary of the corridor (1.1300-1.1315) before continuing its upward movement. This turn of events is strongly supported by graphical analysis on H1;
- a similar pattern is expected for the GBP/USD pair. About 70% of the analysts and indicators on H4 and D1 insist the pair will rise at least to 1.5450 resistance. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 specifies that at first, the pair may fall to support at 1.5300 (H1) and may even reach the bottom around 1.5250 at the second attempt;
- the seven-week pennant on the USD/JPY chart leaves both analysts and all the tools of technical analysis puzzled. Nonetheless, 33% of the analysts as well as indicators on H4 still have a faint hope that USD/JPY will rise to 121.20 at least. Alternatively, 33% of the analysts expect the pair to fall to around 1.1850, and the remaining third just shrug their shoulders, which doesn’t qualify as a forecast in any way;
- as for USD/CHF, 90% of the analysts believe that the pair will hold in a 0.9540-0.9750 sideways corridor. This forecast is elaborated by graphical analysis on D1 – USD/CHF should first go up to the upper boundary of the corridor, then rebound and drop to 0.9500-0.9570 for 2-3 days before abruptly rising to 0.9900. However, the latter may take place only end of October – early November.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #112  
Old 18-10-2015, 11:53
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Forex Forecast for 19-23 October 2015


First, a review of the previous week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD can be considered as fulfilled by 99%. The predictions were as follows: the pair bounces off the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, goes to its bottom boundary and, bouncing back up, reaches September’s high. This actually happened, although the pair didn’t quite reach the very bottom of the channel and slightly overshot the high, so the forecast lost 1% of its accuracy;
- the GBP/USD pair was predicted to first hit the bottom around 1.5250 and then to spike up at least to resistance at 1.5450, which took place. Although in this case, some adjustments were made by inertia – in its fall, GBP/USD made it to 1.5200 but then quickly returned to the indicated support level of 1.5250. The maximum also turned out to be slightly higher at 1.5500 while 1.5450 became the point the pair returned to by the end of the week;
- last week, it seemed impossible to give any forecast regarding USD/JPY as 33% of the experts voted for a rise, 33% for a sideways trend and 33% for a downward movement. The latter proved correct, though the fall was short-term and soon the pair returned to the main support of the past two months;
- the bulls’ timid attempts to push USD/CHF upwards were unsuccessful, and on Thursday, the pair reached the low around 0.9500, as predicted by the experts, and stayed there until the end of the week.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 73% of the analysts along with graphic analysis and indicators on H1 support a further drop – first, to support at 1.1300 and then further to support at 1.1120. The Pivot Point in this case will be at 1.1200. The remaining 27% of the analysts and 85% of the indicators on D1 think that the pair will fail to break through the 1.1300 support and will go up to last week’s high. This scenario is echoed by graphical analysis on H4;
- most experts, graphical analysis and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that GBP/USD will be moving in a 1.5420-1.5500 range for some time. Further forecasts diverge: 23% of the analysts, fully supported by the indicators, insist the pair will rise to around 1.5570-1.5600. Graphical analysis differs – the pair should go down to support at 1.5350;
- according to nearly all the tools of technical analysis and 64% of the experts, the breakthrough by USD/JPY of the bottom side of the symmetrical triangle, which the pair has been drawing since the end of August, was short-lived. They reckon that the previous course will resume – USD/JPY will reach 120.80 at least, and the Pivot Point will be at 120.00 as before. However, there is an opposing view – 36% of the analysts and 76% of the indicators on D1 are confident that from now on, 119.50 will become a powerful resistance level, bouncing off which the pair will move down to support at 118.00;
- there are two possible scenarios for USD/CHF as well. First – the pair will bounce off the upper boundary of the two-week descending channel, reach its bottom boundary 0.9400-0.9420 and rise sharply, breaking through the channel and reaching resistance at 0.9580-0.9600. The indicators, graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and 45% of the experts support this forecast. According to the second scenario, the pair will go upwards as of Monday, breaking through the upper boundary of the channel. This is voted for by 55% of the analysts along with the indicators and graphical analysis on H1. At the same time, one third of the experts believe that the pair will not stop at 0.9600 but will go 100 points higher.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #113  
Old 26-10-2015, 10:09
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Forex Forecast for 26-30 October 2015


The previous forecast was fulfilled 100%:
- regarding EUR/USD, 73% of the analysts insisted that the pair would first fall to support at 1.1300 and then down to 1.1120. Until mid-Thursday, the pair barraged against the level of 1.1300 but on the news about the ECB's interest rate, it crashed to the mentioned level of 1.1120. One would think that EUR/USD might stop there, however, thanks to the National Bank of China, the pair broke through this support level on Friday and reached the landmark of 1.1000 where it had been last in the middle of August;
- the GBP/USD was almost unanimously predicted to be in a sideways trend within a 1.5420-1.5500 range for most of the week, which happened. Further forecasts differed. In this case, graphical analysis was 100% correct - the pair was supposed to go down to support at 1.5350 where it finished the week in fact;
- as for the USD/JPY pair, 64% of the experts and almost all tools of technical analysis predicted that the break through the bottom of the triangle, which the pair had been drawing since late August, would be short-lived. So it happened - by Friday the pair reached the said 120.80 resistance and then went to the next peak at 121.45, thus transforming the triangle into a horizontal channel;
- both experts and technical analysis unanimously predicted upward movement for USD/CHF, differing only on how fast it would transpire. In line with one of the versions, the pair started to go up right away on Monday, broke through the top boundary of the channel and moved to resistance at 0.9600. One third of the experts were convinced that it would not stop there but rise by 100 points more. That turned out correct - USD/CHF gained 100 points and then another 100, eventually reaching 0.9800.

The forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- the indicators clearly point downwards for EUR/USD. However, 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis suggest that the pair will be moving in a sideways corridor of 1.1000-1.1100. They are backed by another 33% of the analysts, differing only in that they drop the support line by 50 points to 1.0950. Just 17% of the analysts insist the pair would return to the 1.1300 resistance;
- around 80% of the indicators vote for a fall of GPB/USD. Half of the experts agree but say that the fall won't be major - the main support will be at 1.5200. The other 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that the pair has reached the bottom and will be moving in a 1.5300-1.5470 sideways channel;
- the indicators point upward for USD/JPY. Surprisingly, 100% of the experts concur and reckon that the pair won't be able to fall below support at 120.50 but will bounce off it towars 122.00;
- the outlook for USD/CHF is up. The experts, most indicators and graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 agree with it. Support is around 0.9740-0.9765, the Pivot Point is at 0.9800, and the next target is 0.9900. Only 14% of indicators on N1 and just 1 indicator on D1 remind that the pair may still crash by a further 100 points to support at 0.9665.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #114  
Old 01-11-2015, 12:21
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Forex Forecast for 2-6 November 2015


First, a review of last week's forecast:
- most experts and graphical analysis insisted that EUR/USD would be moving in a 1.1000-1.1100 sideways corridor. Even the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates could not hamper this forecast. After crashing by 160 plus points Wednesday evening, by the end of the week the pair returned to the indicated boundaries and ended the week at around 1.1000;
- about 80% of the indicators and half of the experts voted for GBP/USD to go down to support at 1.5200 at the most. The remaining 50% of the experts and graphical analysis talked about a sideways trend with resistance around 1.5470. Both forecasts turned out to be right - first, GBP/USD gradually went down to 1.5225 but then recovered and reached 1.5470 Friday night;
- for USD/JPY the experts and the indicators determined a sideways corridor with support at 120.50 and resistance at 122.00. All that happened except that the corridor shifted down by about 50 points to a 120.00-121.50 range, with 120.50 as a pivot point;
- the forecast for USD/CHF was only upward movement, and the pair did reach 0.9950. Now just 50 points separate it from the landmark 1.0000.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed:
- just one (!) analyst predicts that EUR/USD will rise to 1.1200. All the others (the experts, the indicators and graphical analysis) believe the pair will drop to support around 1.0800. With this, according to graphical analysis on H4, the pair will first fall to support at 1.0955, rebound to 1.1055 and only then move downwards hitting the bottom at 1.0600. It won't settle there but rather try to make it to around 1.0800;
- graphical analysis and the experts predict some fluctuations for GBP/USD within a 1.5440-1.5470 range at the beginning of the week. Then the pair should go down under bearish pressure. Graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the main support will be 1.5315 while 33% of the analysts insist that the fall will be bigger and the weekly bottom will be at 1.5250;
- indicators on H4 and D1 maintain neutrality regarding USD/JPY. As for the shorter timeframes, they predict a slight drop to 120.00, a key level for the pair for the past 11 weeks. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this. According to 70% of the experts, the pivot point will be 121.50 again, and generally the pattern of the previous week is expected to repeat. At the same time, a quarter of the experts believe that the pair will not give up attempts to get closer to 122.00;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is still upwards. Although the experts and indicators on H1 and H4 don't rule out that the pair may take a breather within 0.9810-0.9900, the ultimate target remains 1.0000-1.0100. As for a longer-term monthly forecast, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 warn that on reaching 1.0000, the bulls may become weaker and the pair will roll back to 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #115  
Old 08-11-2015, 12:26
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Forex Forecast for 9-13 November 2015


For starters, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- by the end of the week, EUR/USD was supposed to get fixed around 1.0800. Graphical analysis on H4 elaborated that at first, the pair would reach the bottom at 1.0600 and then make every effort to go up to 1.0800. This happened for the most part – EUR/USD was moving down towards the target all week long and on Friday, following the news from the USA, first dropped to 1.0700, then tried to return to the target level and finished the week at 1.0740;
- GBP/USD was predicted to experience some fluctuations within 1.5440-1.5470 at the beginning of the week, after which the pair was supposed to go down. A third of the experts set the weekly bottom at 1.5250. This scenario can be viewed as fulfilled, except for the fact that statistics from Europe and the USA, supported by ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, gave such a boost to the bears that they pushed the pair down by yet another 200 points – to 1.5025;
- almost all agreed that the pivot point for USD/JPY would be at 121.50 again. It was also said that the pair would continue to try and reach 122.00 at least. All was going according to plan until the release of data from the USA on Friday, after which the pair not only reached the target but also speedily soared up, settling only around 123.20;
- the forecast for USD/CHF was only upward movement. The end target was set at 1.0000-1.0100, right in the middle of which the pair stopped Friday night. Thus, the forecast can be considered 100% correct straight out.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- while most indicators in their forecasts for EUR/USD insist on its further fall, the majority of the experts and graphical analysis on H1 tend to believe that the pair will take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. At the same time, 15% of the analysts reckon that the pair will manage to break through resistance at 1.0900 and even reach 1.1000;
- there’s a similar pattern for GBP/USD. Its sideways trend will be limited by support at 1.4950, resistance at 1.5220 and by a 1.5000 pivot point. Even if most experts talk about a bullish trend, 10% of them believe that the pair may briefly come down to 1.4850;
- as for USD/JPY, of the main interest are the indications of graphical analysis. According to its forecast on H1, the pair may first rise to 123.50-124.00 (50% of the experts) and then go down abruptly. Graphical analysis on H4, 60% of the analysts and the indicators on D1 predict a 121.70-122.00 pivot point and support at 121.00. As for a forecast till the end of the year, both experts and graphical analysis on D1 name 125.30 as the ultimate target;
- graphical analysis on D1 doesn’t rule out that USD/CHF will try to move up towards its 1.0210 high, where it was before Black Thursday, 15 January, and then drop down sharply. The analysts are unanimous that the pair has already reached its target for the near future and now will just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. The main support will be 0.9950, the next – 0.9845. The closest resistance will be 1.0100, with the next at 1.0210.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #116  
Old 15-11-2015, 20:56
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Forex Forecast for 16-20 November 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- most experts and graphical analysis on H1 tended to believe that EUR/USD would take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. In fact, as predicted, the pair neither fell below 1.0675 nor rose over 1.0830;
- as for GBP/USD, most experts talked about a bullish trend and the pair’s movement within a 1.4950-1.5220 range. This forecast played out almost precisely – the pair didn’t go below 1.5025 but rose to the upper boundary of the said corridor during the week, ending up at 1.5234;
- graphical analysis on H1 and half of the experts reckoned that USD/JPY might first rise to 123.50-124.00 (it actually went up to 123.60) and then go down sharply. The forecast panned out except for the word “sharply” – the pair was falling all week and slowed down at support around 122.50;
- the analysts were unanimous that USD/CHF had already reached its target for the near future and now would just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. This is exactly what happened – the pair was moving within the sideways corridor of 0.9990-1.0095 all five days.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- it appears nearly impossible to provide any sensible forecast regarding EUR/USD for the next 5 days as 46% of the experts believe that the pair will go up, 15% are for a sideways trend and 39% are for a fall. The indicators on H4 differ too – 74% vote for a rise, 22% for a fall and 4% remain neutral. The indicators on D1 are of the opposite opinion – only 9% are for a rise, another 9% are for sideways movement but 82% expect a fall. Considering that daily releases of important economic data for the eurozone, Japan and the USA or speeches by key figures (such as ECB President Mario Draghi) are expected throughout the week, the picture becomes even less clear. Therefore, what can be said is just that EUR/USD has room to both fall (to support at 1.0675 and 1.0455) and rise (with resistance at 1.0835, 1.0900 and 1.1100);
- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a sideways trend for GBP/USD, with the bears holding some advantage. Thus, initially, the pair may go up a little to 1.5280, then descend to 1.5175 and then even lower to 1.5110. As for a long-term forecast, the experts believe that in the next few weeks the pair will be aiming for a strong support level around 1.4800;
- as for USD/JPY, the readings of graphical analysis are again of the greatest interest. According to its forecast on H4, the pair will first try to break through resistance at 123.00, fail and roll down, hitting the bottom at 120.50, after which it will return to the current level of 122.50. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this prediction, adjusting the main resistance to 123.75 and support to 121.00. The experts set 125.00 and 127.00 as the pair’s targets for the end of the year;
- the analysts expect USD/CHF to continue to oscillate in the range of 0.9900-1.0100. However, 20% of them as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 don’t rule out that soon the pair will try to break into a 1.0120-1.0130 range, from where it will start to assail 1.0210.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #117  
Old 22-11-2015, 21:53
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Forex Forecast for 23-27 November 2015


First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- it appeared impossible to give a sensible forecast for EUR/USD last week as both experts and indicators were at a complete loss, pointing in different directions. However, exactly this kind of “forecast” turned out right – first, the pair fell a bit, then went up some, then dropped again, finishing the week without any clarity;
- the vast majority of the experts and graphical analysis predicted a sideways trend for GBP/USD, which happened. At first, the pair slowly went down to 1.5155, then went up to its level of one month ago and then fell again to the first support set by the experts – 1.5185;
- graphical analysis proved to be right about USD/JPY – first, the pair was supposed to go up to 123.00-123.75, fail to break through resistance and roll down, returning to 122.50 by the end of the week. In fact, the pair failed to break through resistance around 123.60 twice, after which it bounced down and ended up at 122.80;
- the USD/CHF pair was ahead of schedule. It was expected to stay in the range of 0.9900-1.0100 for some time, then get fixed around 1.0120-1.0130 and only from there start assailing 1.0210. All this transpired but much quicker: already on Tuesday, USD/CHF broke through resistance not only at 1.0100 but also 1.0130, and by Wednesday, it reached the set peak of 1.0210, after which the pair entered a sideways trend.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- all indicators point downward for EUR/USD. However, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 shows that the pair will bounce off support at 1.0628, go up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. At the same time, about half of the experts believe that the initial rebound can be 100 points higher – to 1.0800, while the weekly bottom will be in the area of 1.0500-1.0520;
- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 insists on GBP/USD’s upward rebound to 1.5250, then the pair should oscillate in a 1.5170-1.5250 corridor and drop to support at 1.5085. The next support level is 1.5025. On hitting the bottom, the pair is likely to return to around 1.5300, which is echoed by 65% of the analysts;
- as for USD/JPY, the indicators on H4 point strictly down while on D1 – strictly up. The experts hold a similar view. A summary of their opinions shows quite a wide sideways channel with a 121.85-123.20 range and the pivot point around 122.80. It should be noted that graphical analysis on H1 and H4 indicates that at the start of the week, the pair will go down and only then begin to rise;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially and then a surge to a new peak. The target is 1.0250. At the same time, the analysts believe that the pair will remain in a 1.0200-1.0220 corridor most of the time whereas just one (!) analyst suggests that the pair may fall to 0.9800.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #118  
Old 29-11-2015, 14:02
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Forex Forecast for 30 November - 4 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- graphical analysis on H1 and H4 predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off support at 1.0628, move up to resistance at 1.0700 first and only then continue to fall. The pair actually went up reaching 1.0690 on Wednesday, after which it dropped, as predicted;
- graphical analysis turned out to be only 50% right about GBP/USD. According to its forecast, the pair was supposed to rebound upwards first, then drop to support at 1.5085 and further to around 1.5025. In fact, starting from Monday, the pair began to fall and reached the set bottom by Friday, ending up at 1.5030;
- last week, the experts and the indicators differed regarding USD/JPY. Nonetheless, the summary of their opinions proved quite efficient – resistance was at 123.20, and the pair was moving along the 122.80 pivot point during the week, finishing exactly at the set level;
- the forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be correct essentially – a small pullback down to support at 1.0135 initially (the pair made it 1.0144) and then a surge to the new target of 1.0250. All that happened as the pair reached 1.0250 on Wednesday and stayed there till mid-Friday when it shot up by another 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- regarding EUR/USD, 65% of the experts, all indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict a fall to the low of March 2015, that is to 1.0450-1.0500, after which the pair should fight its way to resistance at 1.0620;
- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost unanimously suggest that GBP/USD should fall to the rates of last March. The nearest support is set at 1.5000, with the next at 1.4890;
- opinions diverge about USD/JPY – 70% of the experts, backed by the indicators, insist on the pair’s transition to 123.00-124.00 whereas graphical analysis on H4 dissents expressly. It, in turn, shows that USD/JPY should first go down to support at 121.50 and then return to last week’s pivot point 122.80. The indicators on D1 also vote for the continuation of the sideways trend;
- the USD/CHF pair is rapidly approaching its values of 2007-2009, and now a fuller picture can be seen only on W1 or larger timeframes. As for the weekly forecast, all experts, all indicators along with graphical analysis on H4 speak about the pair’s aspiration to reach 1.0400 first and then 1.0500. Such unanimity may seem a bit fishy, and a look at the one-year-old chart would only cause more concern. Throughout last autumn, USD/CHF was also rising actively but then Black Thursday occurred 15 January. It’s unlikely to happen again in the coming days, nevertheless graphical analysis on D1 reminds that during the week the pair may well fall to 0.9850 and only then return to around 1.0300.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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  #119  
Old 02-12-2015, 14:35
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Investing in Gold: Endurance Test

Nathan Rothschild from the famous banking dynasty once said that gold was not understood. Attempts to sum up the opinions of the most respected representatives of the financial community only prove Rothschild right – all discussions about gold turn into a real battle.

Some say that gold is unwanted material suited only for making women’s trinkets. Thus, gold bugs investing in this ‘dust’ are either simply ignorant or unlucky profiteers pushing themselves and their customers to the brink of a precipice. The counter riposte would be that gold is the only powerful thing that can help you preserve your capital regardless of any shakeups.

Here is some background before we look at the reasoning of both sides. Fourteen years ago, 2 April 2001, the price of gold hit the bottom at $255.30 an ounce, after which the price was on the rise for a whole decade. No other asset of the financial market has displayed such behavior!

In 2011, gold broke $1,900 an ounce and it looked like the landmark of $2,000 was reachable in the next few months but then gold started to lose value fast again. Optimists called that crash a correction while pessimists viewed it as the return to gold’s actual worth. Nowadays, gold prices are at the rate of 5 years ago. Doomsayers are gloating that this is not the end of it but rather the beginning and a real stone fall is yet to come.

Speaking of stones, The Wall Street Journal dubbed the precious metal… a rock. An article titled “Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock” tried to convince the reader that gold, in point of fact, stopped being a safe haven and a hedge against inflation. The author inquired, “So why, even as Greece has defaulted, the euro has sunk against the dollar, and the Chinese stock market has stumbled, has gold been sitting there like a pet rock?... Many people may have bought gold for the wrong reasons…”

The title of another article in The Washington Post speaks for itself – “Gold Is Doomed”. Bloomberg also foresees a further decline for gold. According to Bloomberg analysts, in early 2016, gold will fall to $984 an ounce, and this will be the biggest drop for the past six years. Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London says, “Gold is out of fashion like flared trousers: no one wants it. It’s not going to collapse, but we think it is going to be at a lower level in the not-too-distant future.”

The sentiment is shared by Brian Barish, President of Cambiar Investors LLC, “It’s not a commodity that has much fundamental demand. It’s pretty, so people use it for jewelry. But it’s unlike iron ore or oil, or copper, or corn. There’s not specific end-use for it.”

The rate of $984 is surely low but it’s not the bottom by far. In his MarketWatch article, Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, states that now gold’s fair value is $825 but “…whenever gold does eventually drop to fair value, it will overshoot and drop to a much lower value.” In his calculations, if gold drops below fair value like it did in the mid-1970s and the late 1990s, it would trade at around $350 an ounce. This opinion may be worth listening to as Erb and Duke University professor Campbell Harvey forecast a long-term gold bear market at its inception.

Thus far, it’s been about the stance of those supporting the bears in their fight with the bulls. Naturally, as in any contest, there’re proponents of the other side. As such, Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine Capital, thinks that gold can rebound to $1,400 an ounce. In his opinion, one of the reasons for this is negative yields of a range of European bonds, which can serve as a signal of deflation and make gold more appealing. “Momentum is bearish," weighs in Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor with Rosland Capital. Agreeing with Gundlach, he believes that gold will bounce back eventually. "It's only a matter of time before gold turns around," Nichols said. "Gold should climb to a much higher price over the next three to five years thanks to physical demand from emerging markets."

Michael Cuggino, President and Portfolio Manager of Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, Inc., concurs, “Over time, gold prices will appreciate. Russia, China, India and central banks of other countries are looking to diversify their holdings.” Cuggino also admitted that gold prices would fluctuate a lot in the near future. Nonetheless, he has about 20% of the fund's assets tied up in gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.

Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, is also on the bullish side – “Gold will see another parabolic bull run from July 2016. Prices may reach $1,700 or higher between June 2016 and November 2016. Until then, gold investors need to have the patience and not get scared by more price falls.”

Still, the question remains – Where will the price move? “As I see it,” says John Gordon, leading analyst with international broker NordFX, “it would be a mistake to give any forecast on the basis on one or two factors, albeit important ones. Experience has proven that things are more complex in reality, and gold is no exception.”

“I would point out seven global factors that, in their interaction, shape the price of gold – inflation, interest rates, the situation on stock markets, geopolitical environment, a strong or weak US dollar, oil prices and demand for gold in Asia.

A modification in any of these factors can upset the equilibrium of the multifaceted system, which would result in the sum vector, or the trend, changing its direction. Therefore, I’d advise investors preferring gold to diversify risk and also invest in shares of gold-mining companies and established investment funds as they are able to respond to market changes in a more flexible manner.”

In conclusion, one cannot but present one more – quite sensational – opinion. Avi Gilburt, managing member of Gilburt Financial Services, LLC and an Elliott Wave analyst, claims that in the foreseeable future, gold will reach… $25,000 a troy ounce! Gilburt wrote, “I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.” “Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.”

What forecasts will turn out right – bullish or bearish? Time will show, in ‘just’ 50 years. Meanwhile, please be patient – after all, it’s only business and nothing more.
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Old 06-12-2015, 11:12
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Forex Forecast for 7-11 December 2015

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- as for EUR/USD, the past week showed vividly that fundamental events can refute all forecasts of technical analysis. Thus, the ECB’s decision on key interest rates stopped the falling trend on Thursday and brought the pair to 1-month-old values;
- the GBP/USD pair managed to fulfil the forecast before Thursday, according to which the pair was supposed to fall to 1.4890. The pair reached this support mid-week and then, on the ECB’s decisions, went up, returning to last week’s average values;
- opinions differed regarding USD/JPY last week. Most experts insisted on the pair’s transition to around 123.00-124.00 while graphical analysis, on the opposite, foresaw a fall to support at 121.50 and then a return to the 122.80 pivot point. The indicators on D1 also voted for the continuation of the sideways trend. The pair ended up going both up to 123.70 and down to 122.30. Ultimately, USD/JPY returned to the average values of the past 4 weeks, confirming the forecast about a further sideways trend;
- graphical analysis on D1 warned that USD/CHF could easily drop to 0.9850 during the week. It turned out that the pair just needed a pretext to go for it. The ECB’s decisions announced by Mario Draghi served as such, and the pair plunged by almost 400 points but then bounced back to the key level of 1.0000.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the indicators are at a loss about EUR/USD, which makes sense after Mario Draghi’s speech: on the H4 timeframe, 85% of them vote for a rise; it’s already 58% on D1 while the number dwindles to 16% on W1. As for the analysts, 70% of them believe that the pair will still continue to move upwards in an effort to reach 1.1000-1.1100;
- the experts, the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 almost unanimously predict that GBP/USD will rise to 1.5200. The next resistance is at 1.5270. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 indicates that before rising, the pair may go down to support around 1.5055;
- the analysts and all tools of technical and graphical analysis almost as one suggest that USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend in the same channel where it started to move 6 November. The pivot point is 122.95, support is 122.20, and resistance is 123.75. Only one expert doesn’t rule out that the pair will rise to 125.00;*
- the forecast for USD/CHF isn’t so clear-cut. If most experts and graphical analysis on H4 predict a rise to 1.1000, the indicators on H4 and D1 are more inclined to see the pair go down. By the way, graphical analysis on D1 also indicates that before USD/CHF soars up to the said level, it should first fall to support around 0.9765.

Roman Butko, NordFX
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