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  #961  
Old 12-02-2020, 06:57
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Morning Market Review
2020-02-12

EUR/USD

EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, but again tends to decline after an uncertain yesterday's growth. The reason for the appearance of a weak uptrend on Tuesday was in technical factors, while the fundamental picture remains negative. USD currently looks more attractive to buy, as investors are increasingly interested in high-yield assets. The speeches of the heads of the ECB and the Fed were in the spotlight yesterday. Christine Lagarde concentrated on the negative factors, which once again put pressure on EUR. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, was more optimistic, noting, however, that the regulator will continue to purchase treasury bonds in Q2 2020. During the day, the ECB representative Philip Lane is expected to speak, as well as the release of December statistics on industrial production in the euro area is planned.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading against USD with ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trying to develop a weak upward momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument adds about 0.06%, testing the level of 1.2960 for a breakout. GBP was supported yesterday by statistics from the UK on GDP dynamics, while the rest of the data were controversial. UK GDP in December increased by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. The indicator came out slightly better than forecasts of an increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, GDP grew by 1.1% YoY, slowing down from the previous value of 1.2% YoY and significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.8% YoY. The focus of British investors on Wednesday is the annual Autumn Forecast Statement, which will contain updated forecasts and a brief overview of the budget for the next fiscal year.

AUD/USD

AUD is again trading with steady growth against USD, updating local highs from February 6. The instrument adds about 0.22%, testing the level of 0.6730 for a breakout. AUD is supported by a slight improvement in market sentiment, contributing to an increase in demand for risky assets. Australian macroeconomic statistics yesterday turned out to be heterogeneous, but on the whole it contributed to the further development of the uptrend in the instrument. Home Loans in Australia rose by 3.5% in December after a decline of 0.8% in the previous month. Investors expected an increase of 0.7%. Investment Lending for Homes for the same period increased by 2.8% after an increase of 2.5% in November. Westpac Consumer Confidence reflected a 2.3% increase in February after a 1.8% decline in January. Experts predicted an increase in the index by 1.4%.

USD/JPY

USD has shown uncertain growth against JPY since the beginning of this week; however, at the moment, the instrument is again trading below 109.90. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Tuesday turned out to be mixed, and two-day speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress came to the fore. Powell noted that the regulator does not plan to resort to negative interest rates and will continue to use traditional regulatory tools. In particular, it was decided to continue the purchase of treasury bonds in Q2 2020.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after a correctional decline the day before. The emergence of a "bearish" trend in the instrument was facilitated by the growth of European stock exchanges, as well as a decrease in demand for safe assets amid falling new cases of coronavirus infection. However, the threat of an expanding epidemic remains, which supports gold as a safe haven asset.
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  #962  
Old 13-02-2020, 07:02
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Morning Market Review
2020-02-13

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, trading near record lows since May 2017, renewed yesterday. The euro is under pressure amid rising market concerns about a possible ECB intervention in monetary policy. The regulator is under intense political pressure, which, together with poor macroeconomic statistics and increased trade confrontation with the UK, could lead to lower interest rates in early spring. Macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday reflected a sharp decline in EU industrial production for December by 2.1% MoM and 4.1% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations of –1.6% MoM and –2.3 % YoY On Thursday, investors are focused on the statistics from Germany on consumer inflation. The market expects prices to fall by 0.6% MoM in January and maintain the previous growth rate of +1.7% YoY. The most important statistics for the week will be Friday's publications on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the EU.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading horizontally, consolidating after corrective growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the pound has lost about 0.04% and is testing the level of 1.2950 for a breakdown. The British currency is still moderately supported by optimistic macroeconomic data released on Tuesday. UK GDP data indicated that the British economy managed to avoid a recession, which reduces the risks of new stimulus measures by the Bank of England. At the same time, trade negotiations with the EU remain in the spotlight, which may well come to a standstill and lead to negative consequences for the economies of both parties. Until the end of the week, there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK, so traders are focused on publications from the USA. On Thursday, in particular, the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the United States is expected.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is falling, correcting after yesterday’s sharp increase. Now, the New Zealand dollar has lost about 0.20% and is testing the level of 0.6450 for a breakdown. Yesterday, NZD showed the strongest growth in the last two months, reacting to the RBNZ decision to exclude the possibility of lowering interest rates in the near future. The regulator also informed the market that it expects acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2020 amid improving global trade conditions and measures of budget support for the national economy.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, offsetting the moderate growth of the instrument on the eve. USD is under moderate pressure of Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, the monthly budget report indicated a deficit growth from $–13.3 billion to $–33 billion, which was significantly worse than market expectations of $–11.5 billion. In turn, the yen receives little support from Japanese data. The producer price index for goods for January rose by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. The domestic price index for corporate goods in January accelerated from +0.9% YoY to +1.7% YoY, ahead of forecasts of +1.5% YoY.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are strengthening, recovering from a moderate decline since the beginning of the week. The instrument is supported by correctional sentiment in the US currency, while gold remains under pressure amid growing demand for risk. Now, the rate has added about 0.37% and is preparing to test the level of 1575.00 for a breakout. Pressure on quotes is also exerted by the weakening of the coronavirus epidemic in the world. The number of new infections is declining markedly, and markets hope that the epidemic will gradually end by March-April this year.
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  #963  
Old 14-02-2020, 07:38
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Morning Market Review
2020-02-14

EUR/USD

EUR continues to trade lower against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of April 2017. Pressure on EUR is exerted by revised data on the dynamics of the distribution of coronavirus, indicating a sharp increase in the number of cases, which, coupled with weak macroeconomic indicators of the euro area, creates dismal prospects for the region's economy. However, statistics released on Thursday on consumer inflation from Germany met the expectations of analysts. Consumer Price Index in January decreased by 0.6% MoM and increased by 1.7% YoY. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the euro area, which will have a significant impact on the instrument.

GBP/USD

GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by increased chances of a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England after Boris Johnson appointed Rishi Sunak as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. It is expected that the new minister will adjust the fiscal policy and next month may introduce new measures of tax incentives that will help stabilize the economic situation and attract new investments.

NZD/USD

NZD declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, developing the correctional sentiment formed yesterday when the instrument retreated from its local highs of February 5. The pressure on NZD intensified after the publication of new data by the WHO on the number of patients with coronavirus. Due to a change in the calculation methodology, the market saw a sharp surge in the number of infected, which led to an increase in previous fears about the further spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the pair was slightly supported by data published in New Zealand on the Food Price Index. In January, prices increased by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive trend to emerge, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth.

USD/JPY

USD shows near-zero dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near 109.80. Demand for USD and JPY again rose significantly after the publication of updated statistics on the number of patients with coronavirus, which frightened investors with a sharp surge in the number of infected. It is curious that macroeconomic statistics from the USA practically did not support USD. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in January accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY, which turned out to be better than market expectations. Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy in January rose by 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly better than forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, correcting after quite active growth the day before, which was triggered by the appearance of updated statistics of the infected and dead of coronavirus in China. The development of positive dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by corrective sentiment in USD, which retreated from its local highs against a basket of currencies. In turn, the pressure on gold is exerted by significantly lower expectations of new stimulation measures from the Fed. On Wednesday, speaking in Congress, Jerome Powell outlined a fairly strong position for the regulator regarding the immediate economic prospects and conveyed part of his confidence in the future to a worried market.
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  #964  
Old 17-02-2020, 06:57
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Morning Market Review
2020-02-17

EUR/USD

EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located close to the record lows of April 2017, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, investors were focused on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the US, which, given the lowered demand for risk, did not play in favor of EUR. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed down from 1.2% YoY to 0.9% YoY, with the forecast of 1.0% YoY. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 accelerated its growth from 0.1% QoQ to 0.3% QoQ, and the trade balance in December increased its surplus to the level of EUR 22.2B. During the day, investors are waiting for the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting, and also expect to receive new comments from the ECB representative Philip Lane.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading slightly up against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.3050. Investors continue to take a lead from the appointment of a new UK finance minister, who is primarily expected to introduce new fiscal stimulus. Changes in tax policy, in turn, reduce the risk that the Bank of England will be forced to intervene in the situation, which makes GBP attractive for purchase. UK macroeconomic statistics released today slightly supports GBP. Rightmove House Price Index rose by 2.9% YoY in February accelerating from 2.7% YoY. Traders will be focused on the labor market statistics from the UK on Tuesday.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing a moderate decline during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed last Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6430 for a breakdown. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand was largely ignored by investors. Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in December fell by 0.2% YoY after a decline of 3.5% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 4% YoY. ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge in January reflected a 0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY increase in prices, which turned out to be slightly better than the previous values of 0.4% MoM and 3.2% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of opening at 109.81. Investors focus on weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which puts significant pressure on JPY. Japan's GDP for Q4 2019 collapsed by 1.6% QoQ after growth of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but only at –0.9% QoQ. Industrial production in December fell by 3.1% YoY after a decrease of 3% YoY in November. Capacity Utilization rate in December fell by 0.4% after a decrease of 0.3% in November. The forecasts suggested an increase by 0.2%.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are consolidating near local highs at 1584.81, updated at the end of last week. Support for the instrument is still provided by the risk of the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which reduces the prospects for global economic growth. Additional support for gold at the end of last week was provided by mixed US macroeconomic statistics. In particular, investors were disappointed with the pace of decline in Industrial Production in January.
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  #965  
Old 18-02-2020, 08:15
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EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair moves flat but at the opening, the price renewed three-year lows, which indicates that the pressure on the instrument maintains. At the beginning of the week, trading activity was low due to the lack of key macroeconomic publications and closed US markets due to President's Day. On Tuesday, investors expect publication of statistics from ZEW on business sentiment in Germany and the EU. Analysts' forecasts are rather ambiguous, however, given the poor statistics of Germany last week, there is no additional support for the euro expected.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the key support level of 1.3000, which the instrument actively tested at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by expectations of fiscal changes in the UK from the country's new finance minister, Rishi Sunak. The keynote of Sunak’s policy should be an increase in government spending, which will contribute to the growth of the British economy. Today, traders wait for the publication of the UK labor market data for December-January but analysts' forecasts are pessimistic. In particular, a slight slowdown in average wage growth is expected in December. At the same time, the number of Claimant Count Change for January may increase sharply from 14.9K to 22.6K.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively falling, renewing local lows from February 11. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.33%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakdown. Earlier this week, the price was trying to grow after the news that official Beijing promised to introduce new measures to support the economy. In particular, China is expected to cut corporate taxes, as well as increase government spending. Key macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States are not expected on Tuesday, so the focus will probably remain on the old drivers. The Australian Q4 2019 wage index, as well as Westpac leading economic indicators index for January will be released tomorrow. Traders are focused on Thursday, when the January labor market report will be published.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, returning to the “bearish” dynamics after an uncertain growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the dollar has lost about 0.15%, testing the level of 109.70 for a breakdown. Yesterday's growth of the instrument was facilitated by poor statistics from Japan. Thus, the country's Q4 2019 GDP fell by 1.6% QoQ after an increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% QoQ. The volume of industrial production in Japan in December fell by 3.1% YoY, accelerating the fall from the previous value of –3% YoY. In monthly terms, the pace of production slowed down from +1.3% MoM to +1.2% MoM.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the price for gold is growing moderately, recovering from yesterday's decline in the instrument, which was due to the announcement of new measures to support the Chinese economy. However, investors are still cautious, and the demand for shelter assets remains relatively high. From official Beijing, markets expect another reduction in corporate taxes and increased government spending, which should spur the growth of a slowing economy. In addition, China is taking new measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. In particular, last weekend, the Chinese government said that banks will be allowed to issue only banknotes that have been disinfected.
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  #966  
Old Yesterday, 08:34
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EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, returning to decline after a corrective growth the day before. The strengthening of the euro was mainly due to technical factors, as the single currency remains strongly oversold and is trading near three-year lows. The macroeconomic background, however, did not contribute to the growth of the instrument. Thus, EU Construction Output for December fell by 3.7% YoY after rising by 1.4% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.4% YoY. In monthly terms, the production fell by 3.1% MoM after a slight increase of 0.74% for November. During the day, European investors expect the publication of information on the dynamics of producer prices for January in Germany. In addition, the ECB will publish the Account of Monetary Policy Meeting.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, consolidating near local highs since February 11, which were achieved due to a steady GBP decline the day before. The British currency almost completely ignored the strong national statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation. Instead, investors focused on the prospects for EU-UK negotiations and discussed upcoming fiscal changes and increased government spending. The consumer price index for January sharply accelerated from +1.3% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which was better than market expectations of +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, however, consumer inflation decreased by 0.3% MoM after December's zero dynamics. Analysts predicted a 0.4% YoY decrease in the index. On Thursday, traders are focused on the UK retail sales statistics for January, as well as the publication of the CBI Industrial Trends Orders for February.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is significantly reduced, renewing local lows since November 13. Now, NZD has lost about 0.38% and is preparing to test the level of 0.6350 for a breakdown. The currency is falling amid the publication of optimistic macroeconomic American statistics. Yesterday, traders were pleased by a confident increase in the producer price index and an improvement in the housing market. Building Permits for January increased by 9.2% MoM after a decrease of 3.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 0.1% MoM. In addition, investors are still wary of a slowdown in the global economy due to continued threats of the spread of coronavirus and a weakening Chinese economy. However, the market appreciated the efforts made by Beijing to contain the epidemic. On Thursday, it became known that the Central Bank of China decided to reduce the interest rate by 10 basis points to 4.05%.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near new record highs, renewed the day before, when the yen showed its strongest decline in 6 months. JPY is under pressure by a poor national macroeconomic statistics, which may indicate the onset of a recession in the country. Data released on Monday reflected a sharp decline in Japan's Q4 2019 GDP by 6.3% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY in the previous month. In quarterly terms, GDP lost 1.6% QoQ after a slight increase of 0.4% QoQ earlier.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the price of gold is slightly reduced, retreating from local highs, updated due to yesterday’s moderate growth of the instrument. Although the market positively assesses China’s efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus, concerns about negative economic consequences remain, which provides support for shelter assets. Also, uncertain prospects around a possible reduction in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve positively affect the quotes. The minutes of the Fed meeting published yesterday reflected a certain split in its administration, however, the regulator continues to believe in a strong labor market, and therefore the risks of lowering the rate in the foreseeable future remain insignificant.
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  #967  
Old Today, 07:08
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EUR/USD

EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near three-year lows, once again updated on Thursday. Market problems dominate over EUR, which has been showing the worst results since 2015. Negative macroeconomic statistics, the threat of a recession in the German economy, as well as the uncertain prospects for trade negotiations with the UK negatively affect the dynamics of the instrument. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity from Europe, but the forecasts again do not promise anything good for EUR. Manufacturing PMI in Germany may fall in February from 45.3 to 44.8 points; Markit Composite PMI may decline from 51.2 to 50.8 points. In addition, on Friday, traders expect the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area.

GBP/USD

GBP demonstrates the development of a technical correction against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.08%, testing the level of 1.2890 for a breakout. The decline in the instrument is due to the growth of USD across the entire market, while optimism regarding the appointment of a new finance minister in the UK is gradually fading into the background. Moreover, GBP ignores quite good macroeconomic statistics coming out of the UK recently. On February 19, the market ignored strong data on consumer inflation. Yesterday's Retail Sales data only briefly hindered the decline in GBP. In January, Retail Sales grew by 0.9% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.7% MoM. Today, investors are focused on statistics on business activity from Markit in the UK in February.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of March 2009. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the backdrop of the steady growth of USD, which looks more profitable against the backdrop of European problems and the uncertainty surrounding the pace of development of the world economy. Additional pressure on AUD is still exerted by the Australian labor market report for January published on Thursday. Employment Change in the country grew by 13.5K jobs after an increase of 28.7K over the past period. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in January unexpectedly increased significantly from 5.1% to 5.3% with a forecast of 5.2%. Friday's data from Australia also cannot help the instrument recover. Commonwealth Bank’s Services PMI fell in February from 50.6 to 48.4 points, with growth forecast to 52.4 points. Composite PMI in February fell from 50.2 to 48.3 points.

USD/JPY

USD shows a correctional trend against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the local highs of April 2019, which the instrument managed to update due to the steady growth of USD over the past two days. JPY remains under pressure amid talk of a possible recession in the Japanese economy. In addition, there is a marked increase in investor interest in risk in the market amid some stabilization of the situation with the spread of coronavirus. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Friday also do not provide any support for JPY. The National Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy rose by 0.8% YoY in January, slowing down from the previous value of 0.9% YoY. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.8 to 47.6 points in February, with a positive forecast for growth to 49 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show steady growth during today's Asian session, updating record highs of February 2013. The quotes are supported by the continuing uncertainty surrounding the further spread of the coronavirus. Despite all the efforts of the Chinese authorities, as well as the relatively stable statistics of cases, investors are extremely sensitive to any new cases recorded outside of China. Additional support for gold is provided by a significant decrease in JPY, as some investors looking for a safe haven in Japanese currency are now more willing to invest in gold. Today investors are focused on the publication of American statistics on business activity from Markit for February. In addition, the markets expect the Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard, Loretta Mester, and Richard Clarida to speak today.
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