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Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/CHF continues the strong uptrend
8/10/2016 NZD/CHF continues the strong uptrend Next buy targets - 0.7150 and 0.7200 NZD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 5, which stared earlier when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.6850 (former resistance level from June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from the start of May. The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the sharp intermediate impulse wave (C) from the middle of January. NZD/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy targets at the resistance levels 0.7150 and 0.7200 (which reversed the previous sharp minor impulse wave 3 in July). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10010 |
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USD/JPY: new low is coming because of "Engulfing"
8/10/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH4.png There’s a bearish “Engulfing” on the 34 Moving Average, which has been confirmed enough. However, there’s also an opportunity to have a local correction towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, so bears are likely going to move on. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH1.png We’ve got one more “Engulfing” on the one-hour chart, which also has been confirmed enough. Therefore, sellers are likely going to reach the nearest support line, which could bring any bullish pattern afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10011 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: eurobulls are on the attack
8/10/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1120, 1.1100; resistance – 1.1170. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1120; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1200. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(21).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9998 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: euro has entered to positive zone
8/11/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1150, 1.1120; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1190. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1150; SL — 1.1130; TP1 — 1.1190; TP2 – 1.1230. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(22).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10014 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
[B]AUD/USD: on the new highs[/URL]
8/11/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7680/90, 0.7630; resistance – 0.7730. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7680/90; SL — 0.7660; TP1 — 0.7730; TP2 — 0.7790. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with its supporting of the market. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...udusdh4(5).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10015 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: consolidation under the cloud
8/11/2016 Technical levels: support – 101.00; resistance – 101.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 101.70; SL — 101.90; TP1 — 101.20; TP2 — 100.60. Reason: a new dead cross formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud; strong resistance formed by Senkou Span A. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...sdjpyh4(8).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10016 |
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EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bullish rally
8/11/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png The price faced a resistance at 1.1186, which led to the current decline. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1145 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, then bulls will probably try to deliver a new high. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png There’s a possible “Double Top” pattern in progress. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, bulls are still strong enough, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1222 as an intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10017 |
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GBP/USD: "Flag" increasing bearish pressure
8/11/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png Bulls faced a resistance at 1.3119, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern. Under this circumstances, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.2954 – 1.2877. Nevertheless, buyers will probably try to move on afterwards, so it’s likely to see an achievement of the 55 Moving Average soon. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “Double Top” under the nearest resistance at 1.3101. So, there’s a consolidation in a form of a “Flag” along a level at 1.3017. In this case, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2945 – 1.2906. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.3056 – 1.3071. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10018 |
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EUR/USD: wave [d] of 4 is about to start
8/11/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...1100811001.png Wave 4 is taking place on the four-hour chart. We’ve got a pullback from 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250), so there’s an opportunity to have wave [d] of 4. The main intraday target is 3/8 MM Level, which could set up wave [e] of 4 afterwards. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...1100811002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is trading under 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). Also, there’s an ended impulse in wave (c) of [c]. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver wave [d] of a possible triangle shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10019 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Thursday, August 11th
8/11/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(12).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 44 094 ? + 150 164 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1205; 1.1230; 1.1263; 1.1287 Closest support levels 1.1144/26; 1.1104; 1.1078; 1.1047 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1144, with target points at 1.1104 and 1.1078 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1205 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1230 and 1.1263 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(10).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 834 ? + 2 342 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3145; 1.3198; 1.3228; 1.3262 Closest support levels 1.2958; 1.2922; 1.2900; 1.2875 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2958, with target points at 1.2922 and 1.2900 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3145 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3198 and 1.3228 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(11).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 005 ? + 1 014 ? Closest resistance levels 101.86; 102.25; 102.50; 102.80 Closest support levels 100.96; 100.77(62?); 100.44; 100.22 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.96, with target points at 100.77 and 100.44 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.86 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.25 and 102.50 EUR JPY GBP More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10020 |
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EUR/USD: "Tweezers" reversed the local trend
8/11/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh4.png We’ve got a lot of bearish patterns at the local high such as a “Harami”, a “Two Crows” and a “Tweezers”. So, the price is declining, but there’s also an opportunity to have a local bullish correction. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to push the market lower towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible bearish pattern at the local high, but it hasn’t finished yet. Therefore, if this pattern confirms, sellers will probably try to return into the market. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh1.png There’re a “Hanging Man” and a “Shooting Star” at the last high. Moreover, we’ve got a “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 89 Moving Average in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10028 |
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USD/JPY: "Window" has been waiting for bulls
8/11/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH4.png There’s a bullish “Harami” at the local low, but its confirmation is a quite weak. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local upward correction towards the nearest “Window” and the 34 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a confirmed “Engulfing”, so the market is likely going to decline until any bullish pattern arrives. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a local consolidation on the one-hour chart. There’s an “Engulfing” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the 34 & 55 Moving Averages are likely going to act as a resistance in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10029 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000
8/11/2016 GBP/USD reached sell target 1.3000 Next sell target - 1.2840 GBP/USD today broke below the round support level 1.3000, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier – when the pair reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance zone surrounding the pivotal resistance level 1.3400. GBP/USD is expected to continue to fall in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.2840 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1 in July). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10030 |
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EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4500
8/11/2016 EUR/AUD reached sell target 1.4500 Next sell targets - 1.4300 EUR/AUD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the long-term support level 1.4500, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from December (as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.4500 is expected to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from February. If the pair closes today below the support level 1.4500 - EUR/AUD can then be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4300 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave 5 and (C)). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10031 |
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Forex trading plan for August 12
8/11/2016 US dollar index hold its ground on Thursday after two previous days of decline. American unemployment claims came better than expected showing that the nation’s labor market is on good shape. We’ll find out more about American economy on Friday: the US will release retails sales, PPI (12:30 GMT) and consumer confidence (14:00 GMT) figures. Also pay attention to China’s industrial production release during Friday’s Asian session: the reading will shape the market’s risk sentiment. Good reading will be positive for Australian dollar, while weak reading will increase demand for Japanese yen. Note that oil prices rose by about 1% on Thursday after the International Energy Agency forecasted crude markets would rebalance in the next few months following several years of heavy overproduction. EUR/USD tested 1.1135, but the managed to return above the 50-day MA at 1.1150. Close above this point may give the bulls strength to attempt an increase to 1.1230 (100-day MA), but firstly they will need to clear resistance at 1.1180 (resistance line drawn through August highs). Technical developments at the daily chart favor the bullish outcome. Support is at 1.1120/00. Watch German preliminary GDP at 06:00 GMT. The euro area’s preliminary GDP will come out at 09:00 GMT. GBP/USD declined on Thursday after it failed to sustain gains on Wednesday, However, indicators show that bearish momentum declined. Weekly pivot support at 1.2935 guards the downside. Next support is in the 1.2800 area. Resistance is at 1.3020. If the bulls manage to push the prices above this point, we will see deeper correction higher with targets at 1.3090/1.3100 and potentially even 1.3150. USD/JPY remains under pressure. Break below support at 101.70 will open the way down to 100.70 and below that the target will be at 100.00. If the bulls somehow manage to change the situation – that doesn’t seem very likely – the pair will meet resistance at 101.80 and 101.75. It seems that there are serious AUD/USD sellers in 0.7755 area. However, the bulls obviously don’t give up. As long as the pair remains above 0.7676 (July high, bottom of the upward trend channel), the outlook will remain bullish. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10032 |
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USD/JPY & U.S. Retail Sales: What will happen with the greenback?
8/12/2016 Today at 12:30 GMT we'll know the US retail sales numbers for July, where the markets are expecting a decrease from 0.6% to 0.4%, and the latest release suggested that the consumer force is a key factor for the economic growth during the second semester of the year in the United States. Bear in mind that the sales had a very poor start of the 2016 year, so the further data, in a positive manner, would help to boost the greenback. The technical picture for USD/JPY at H4 chart is telling us that a bearish consolidation is still looking to add more downside momentum in order to break the lows post-Brexit. The support zone of 100.41 remains very solid and as long as the pair trades above it, then we can witness a breakout above the 102.55 level, in order to extend the bullish momentum. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DJPYH4(13).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10033 |
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AUD/USD met Three Indians
8/12/2016 On the daily AUD/USD chart the pair formed "Three Indians" pattern. A pin bar appeared in the area of the third top, it's lower border is close to 78.6% Fibo of the last bullish wave. If the bears manage to hold the pair below 0.7688, risks of decline to 0.7570 will increase. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_07_49_08.png On H1 AUD/USD chart sellers are trying to pull the pair below support at 0.7676. It corresponds to the lower border of the uptrend channel. Successful test will make the pair decline to 0.7717-0.7627 (88.6% target of the "Shark" pattern + 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave) and 0.7587 (50%). The nearest resistance levels are at 0.7723 and 0.7750. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_07_49_28.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10036 |
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USD/JPY: bouble bottom discouraged the bears
8/12/2016 On the daily USD/JPY chart the bulls keep aiming for resistance at 102.69. If the buyers manage to get here, risks of growth to 103.97 and 104.38 will increase. The latter corresponds to the upper border of an uptrend and 23.6% of the last long-term descending wave. On the contrary, if the pair renews August low, it will continue its way down to 98. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_07_56_19.png On H1 USD/JPY formed a double bottom. If the pair leaves 100.83-102.9 range, bearish trend will likely continue or we'll see development of correction to 103.97-104.08 and 104.89-105.06. The latter corresponds to 88.6% of the Bat pattern. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_07_56_36.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10037 |
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EUR/USD: "Triple Top" stand in the way of bulls
8/12/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a “Triple Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1120 – 1.1113 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1222. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “Triple Top” as well, which led to the current local consolidation between the 34 & 89 Moving Averages. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1120 – 1.1113. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1196. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10038 |
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GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlight possibility to have a new low
8/12/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed enough, so the price reached a support at 1.2954. Also, bears have delivered a new low. Under this circumstances, sellers are likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2877 – 1.2849 as a possible bearish target. At the same time, if a pullback from this area arrives, there’ll be a chance to see a local upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png There’s a consolidation in progress, so we’ve got a possible “Pennant” pattern on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2906 – 1.2875 soon. Nevertheless, if sellers be stopped on this area, bulls will have an opportunity to reach a resistance at 1.3017 – 1.3056. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10039 |
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EUR/USD: wave [d] of 4 going to reach 3/8 MM Level
8/12/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2093854001.png There’s a possible “Triangle” in wave 4 on the four-hour chart. Yesterday wave [c] was ended on 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250), so bears are likely going to deliver wave [d] shortly. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2093854002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has found a lodgement under 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). Also, we’ve got wave [c], which was ended in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards 3/8 MM Level during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10040 |
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EUR/USD: euro supported by Kijun
8/12/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1120/30, 1.1090; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1190. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1150; SL — 1.1130; TP1 — 1.1190; TP2 – 1.1230. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(23).png More; https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10041 |
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USD/JPY: the trades will continue inside a cloud
8/12/2016 Technical levels: support – 101.00, 101.50; resistance – 102.60. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 102.60; SL — 102.80; TP1 — 101.50; TP2 — 101.00. Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...sdjpyh4(9).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10042 |
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Key option levels for Friday, August 12th
8/12/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(13).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 13 229 ? + 45 219 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1208; 1.1225; 1.1246; 1.1272 Closest support levels 1.1121; 1.1106; 1.1087; 1.1063 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1121, with target points at 1.1106 and 1.1087 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1208 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1225 and 1.1246 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(11).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 645 ? + 1 188 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3055; 1.3096(74?); 1.3120; 1.3148 Closest support levels 1.2927; 1.2897; 1.2878; 1.2856 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2927, with target points at 1.2897 and 1.2878 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3055 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3096 and 1.3120 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(12).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 261 ? + 229 ? Closest resistance levels 102.29/43; 102.59; 102.79; 103.03 Closest support levels 101.51; 101.25; 101.06; 100.83 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 101.51, with target points at 101.25 and 101.06 Alternative scenario Moving above 102.29 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.59 and 102.79 USD/CAD (Caution: Thin Market!) https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDCAD(12).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 528 ? + 768 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3026; 1.3057; 1.3098; 1.3151 Closest support levels 1.2932(15?); 1.2892; 1.2858; 1.2816 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.2932, with target points at 1.2892 and 1.2858 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3026 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3057 and 1.3098 EUR JPY GBP CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10043 |
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EUR/USD: "Three Black Crows" points to further decline
8/12/2016 [https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh4.png There’s a support by the 144 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern on this line, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could reverse the price movement into a downward direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami” at the local high, but it haven’t got a confirmation. Therefore, bears will probably try to push the price lower in the short term. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh1.png We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Three Black Crows” at the local highs. Also, there’s a strong support by the 55 Moving Average. Under this circumstances, if we see a pullback from the nearest resistance, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish movement. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10044 |
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USD/JPY: bulls found a lodgement above the “Window"
8/12/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH4.png The previously formed “Harami” and “Three Methods” have done a great job, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average. So, it’s likely to see a support by the nearest “Window”. If it happens, bulls are likely going to achieve 55 Moving Average shortly. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing” at the last low, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance line, which is strong enough to reverse the price movement into a downward direction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH1.png The price has been rising since a “Hammer” arrived at the local low. Moreover, bulls have found a lodgement above the nearest “Window”. In this case, the pair is likely going to rise until any reversal pattern arrives. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10045 |
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CAD/CHF rising inside minor correction
8/12/2016 CAD/CHF rising inside minor corrective wave 2 Next buy target - 0.7600 CAD/CHF has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the second minor corrective wave 2, which stared earlier - when the pair reversed up with the daily Morning Star from the support zone lying between the support levels 0.7420 (previous sell target) and 0.7350. This support zone was strengthened by the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci correction levels of the two previous upward impulses from April and February respectively. CAD/CHF is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7600 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) in July, as can be seen below). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10047 |
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AUD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance 1.0090
8/12/2016 AUD/CAD reversed from powerful resistance 1.0090 Next sell target - 0.9900 AUD/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the powerful resistance level 1.0090 (which reversed the earlier primary impulse wave ① in December, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD chart below). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star – which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the resistance level 1.0090 - AUD/CAD is expected to correct down further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9900 – from where the pair is likely to resume the upward movement. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10048 |
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[B]EUR/USD: outlook for August 15-21[B]
8/12/2016 EUR/USD held above 1.1100 (50-week MA). At the same time, the pair is still below 2016 resistance line in the 1.1260 area. Another obstacle is the declining 100-week MA at 1.1326. Daily moving averages remain horizontal hinting at the lack of big trend moves. Euro area’s GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3%, while industrial production remained weak raising concerns about Q3 industrial performance. All in all, despite the fact that we may see EUR/USD test the mentioned resistance line, the single currency itself doesn’t have any reasons for sustainable growth versus the US dollar. The current advance pf the pair is provoked by America’s weakness. It means that we prefer selling its on attempts to get higher. As for the European economic calendar, Monday will be a bank holiday in France and Italy, while on Tuesday Germany will release ZEW economic sentiment index. On Thursday we’ll find out the region’s current account and final consumer price index figure. The ECB will also release monetary policy meeting account. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(11).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10049 |
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GBP/USD: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016 GBP/USD continued slowly moving down. The pound made one attempt to recover, but it wasn’t very convincing. It was the first week of the Bank of England’s extended bond buying program. The start wasn’t very good: British central bank failed to attract enough bond sellers to reach its purchase target. Investors agreed to sell only 1.1 billion pounds of bonds to the regulator versus the planned amount of 1.17 billion pounds despite the fact that the BOE was buying at higher price than the market. The problem is that longer-term government bonds offer higher yield and are held by British pension funds that need these securities to match their liabilities. On Tuesday, August 16, the Bank of England will have another go at meeting its QE target, and it may once again create some volatility at the market. Next week Britain will release a block of inflation data for July on Tuesday and labor market data on Wednesday. Inflation figures will be the first major data piece after the Brexit vote. In addition, there will be a release of retail sales on Thursday and public sector net borrowing on Friday. Technically, the pound is oversold, corrections up are likely, but only increase above 1.3150 will improve the medium-term picture. In this case further resistance will be at 1.3300. If GBP/USD slides below the recent lows, the downtrend may extend to 1.2840/00. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDDaily(9).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10050 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016 USD/JPY spend the week in 102.50/101.00 range. The pair formed a slightly higher low this week. Demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven declined allowing the pair to hold ground. The overall downtrend remains in place. Weaker-than-expected US economic data on Friday represented a blow for the bulls. Decline below 101.00 will signal that the downtrend has resumed targeting 100.70 and 100.00. Resistance lies at 102.80, 103.90 and 105.00. Japan will release Q2 preliminary GDP on Monday. Economists think that economic growth in Japan likely slowed in spring months due to weak private consumption. Also watch data from the US economic calendar while trading USD/JPY. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PYDaily(8).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10051 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/USD: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016 AUD/USD made two attempts to take out resistance in the 0.7755 area, but sellers didn’t allow the bulls to overcome this obstacle. However, the trend remains bullish. Above 0.7765 the next resistance will be at 0.7840 (resistance line from 2013). Support is at 0.7600. Relatively higher yields make Australian dollar attractive for investors. As long as the market’s risk sentiment remains strong, it will be in demand. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens didn’t hint on further interest rate cuts – another supporting factor for AUD. There’s however, one worrying spot: China’s imports fell 12.5% in US dollar terms in July. The nation’s industrial production and retail sales were also a bit weaker than expected. This creates a concerning background for Aussie, as China is Australia’s biggest trading partner. In Australia’s economic calendar pay attention to monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday and labor market figures on Thursday. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(10).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10052 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
US dollar: outlook for August 15-21
8/12/2016 Despite good nonfarm payrolls data, it wasn’t a week of strength for the US dollar: riskier currencies were more popular because of good risk sentiment. The greenback is supported by the fact that other major central banks are easing monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve still claims that it may raise interest rates this year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England and cut the benchmark interest rate to the record low. However, data on Friday showed that American core retail sales contracted by 0.3% in July, while producer price fell by 0.4%. This was a serious disappointment for the market. Next week there will be more economic data from the US: building permits, consumer prices, housing starts and industrial production on Tuesday, FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. The minutes will be from July 27 meeting, when American central bank left interest rates unchanged and said risks to the US economy had declined. If the Fed officials try to persuade the market that September is a ‘live’ month when it may raise rates, the US dollar may strengthen a bit, though we don’t think that the market will put much faith into such statements. If the regulator sounds more cautious, the greenback will get under renewed bearish pressure. More sizeable hints on further US monetary policy are expected at the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 26. Until then traders are more likely to be bearish than bullish on the US currency. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl..._index(11).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10046 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD & NY Empire State Manufacturing Index: Not a major catalyst for today
8/15/2016 Today should be a very flat day in the markets, as in most of the European and South American countries will have holidays. That's why we're seeing a very light economic calendar, but on the American's side, we'll have the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index to be released at 12:30 GMT, where the markets are expecting an increase from 0.55 to 2.50. That should have the medium impact on US Dollar across the board. Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still pointing to the downside, as the resistance zone of 1.1225, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the Brexit's decline, remains very strong. That should give further hints of possible strengthening on the greenback, but the weakness is still alive. The nearest support zone is located at the 1.1073 level and it should be key during this week. In the bullish scenario, a breakout above the 1.1225 level will expose the pre-Brexit high to be tested on a mid-term basis. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...RUSDH4(15).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/...nalytics/10053 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: цели покоряются упорным
8/15/2016 On the daily chart EUR/USD bulls made another attempt to conquer diagonal resistance at the upper border of the trend channel. Once again it was a failure, although the persistance of the buers may eventually bring fruits. As a result, risks are that the rally will continue to 1.1259 and 1.1343. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_34_25.png On H1 EUR/USD bears managed to repel an attack of their competitors. As a result, the pair formed resistance at 1.1209. The pair fell to 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave. Here, as well as at 1.1134 (lower border of the uptrend chanbel + 50% level) the bulls are ready to seize the initiative. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_34_06.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10054 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
[B]GBP/USD found convergence[/B}
8/15/2016 On the daily GBP/USD chart the bears reached targets they set before. The pair met important convergence area at 1.2888-1.2946, and won't be able to continue declining until it falls below this region. Recoil will increase risks of the pair's return to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation in the 1.3075-1.3494 zone. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_46_39.png On H1 GBP/USD rwached 78.6% Gartley pattern target. Currently this level (1.2946) acts as resistance. Correction will increase probalility of selling from 1.3025, 1.3071 and higher. Successful test of support at 1.2888 will increase risks of continued decline to 1.2797 (224% target according to AB=CD). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_46_53.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10055 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "V-Top" stood in the way of buyers
8/15/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png The pair has faced resistance on the main downward trend, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, which led to the current decline. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1130 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1222. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which has stopped the last bullish rally. Also, we’ve got a support by the 34 Moving Average. So, it’s likely to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1186 – 1.1196 during the day. Nevertheless, bears are still in the game, so we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.1136 – 1.1130 as a possible intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10056 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: Moving Average waiting for bulls
8/15/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.2877. Also, here’s a new local low. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to move on towards a support at 1.2849 – 1.2795. If we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png The price found a support at 1.2906, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. In this case, it pair is likely going to achieve the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will try to deliver a new low shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10057 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to move on
8/15/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5093655001.png There’s a possible “Triangle” in wave 4, which is taking place on the four-hour chart. It’s likely that wave [c] was ended last Friday, so it’s time for wave [d]. In this case, we should keep in mind 2/8 Murrey Math Level (P=250) as a target for wave [d] of 4. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5093655002.png We’ve got a pullback from 7/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which was the final point for wave (?) of [c]. Also, there’s a downward impulse in wave (a). So, bears are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [d] in the short term. If we see a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, there’ll be a sign that wave [d] is over. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10058 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Monday, August 15th
8/15/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EURUSD(14).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest - 271 015 ? - 374 592 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1189; 1.1213; 1.1229; 1.1248 Closest support levels 1.1142; 1.1126; 1.1105; 1.1079 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1142, with target points at 1.1126 and 1.1105 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1189 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1213 and 1.1229 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...GBPUSD(12).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 491 ? + 1 795 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3020; 1.3042; 1.3067; 1.3095 Closest support levels 1.2918; 1.2888; 1.2864/48; 1.2829 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell GBP/USD below 1.2918, with target points at 1.2888 and 1.2864 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3020 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3042 and 1.3067 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...USDJPY(13).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 868 ? + 492 ? Closest resistance levels 101.81; 102.00; 102.20; 102.45 Closest support levels 100.93; 100.61; 100.43; 100.22 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 100.93, with target points at 100.61 and 100.43 Alternative scenario Moving above 101.81 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 102.00 and 102.20 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10059 |
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