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GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlight possibility of more bullish pressure
8/3/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png We’ve got a correction in progress. The price has already faced a resistance at 1.3339, which brought a local decline into the market. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. However, if a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish movement towards a support at 1.3226 – 1.3116. There’s a “Pennant”, so the price is likely going to test a resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3445 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.3313 – 1.3289. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9898 |
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GBP/USD: pound feels great
8/3/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3290; resistance – 1.3370, 1.3480. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.3290; SL — 1.3270; TP1 — 1.3370; TP2 — 1.3480. Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a new highs for last three weeks. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...bpusdh4(7).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9899 |
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AUD/USD: the bullish mood
8/3/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7560; resistance – 0.7620. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7620; TP2 — 0.7680. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen is temporarily cancelled, but there is a strong support of them. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...udusdh4(2).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9900 |
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Key option levels: August 3rd
8/3/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...RUSDnew(2).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 28 580 ↓ + 71 490 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.1251; 1.1269; 1.1289; 1.1319 Closest support levels 1.1209; 1.1179; 1.1140; 1.1095 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1209, with target points at 1.1179 and 1.1140 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1251 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1269 and 1.1289 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PUSDnew(2).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 290 ↑ + 955 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.3364; 1.3378; 1.3399; 1.3433 Closest support levels 1.3297; 1.3275; 1.3251; 1.3224 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell pair below 1.3297, with target points at 1.3275 and 1.3251 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3364 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3378 and 1.3399 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DJPYnew(2).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 6 241 ↑ + 1 273 ↑ Closest resistance levels 101.48; 101.82; 102.24; 102.69 Closest support levels 100.69; 100.54; 100.27; 100.02 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.48, with the target points at 101.82 and 102.24 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.69 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.54 and 100.27 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DCADnew(2).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 735 ↑ + 407 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.3134; 1.3186; 1.3257; 1.3339 Closest support levels 1.3058; 1.3024; 1.2968; 1.2897 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3134, with the target points at 1.3186 and 1.3257 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3058 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3024and 1.2968 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9901 |
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EUR/USD: wave v of (c) successfully ended
8/3/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3102210001.png We’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which points to a possible ending of wave 4 in a form of a “Double Three”. Therefore, wave [i] of 5 is likely going to be started, so we should keep an eye 2/8 Murrey Math Level, which could be the next bearish target. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3102210002.png Wave v of (c) ended on 8/8 Murrey Math Level, so we’ve got a pullback from there. However, it’s better to wait a little bit until the price breaks 6/8 Murrey Math Level. If it happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have further decline in wave [i]. More; https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9902 |
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NZD/USD: bears going to deliver wave (i)
8/3/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3134610001.png It seems like wave [ii] has been ended in a form of a zigzag, so there’s a possibility to have a downward impulse in wave (i). The nearest bearish target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If the price breaks this level, bears will likely going to deliver a deeper impulse. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3134610002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, we’ve got a “Diagonal Triangle” in wave v of (c). Therefore, wave (i) is likely going to move on. The main bearish target is 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9903 |
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NZD/JPY continues daily downtrend
8/3/2016 NZD/JPY continues daily downtrend Next sell target - 72.00 NZD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the intermediate downward impulse (3) from March. The active impulse wave 3 started earlier in July – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 76.60, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from December. NZD/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 72.00 (which reversed the previous (b)-wave at the start of July, as can be seen below). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9904 |
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CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave
8/3/2016 CHF/JPY falling inside sharp impulse wave Next sell target - 102.20 CHF/JPY continues to fall inside the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3), which began previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 107.70 (earlier buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 109.00. This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the sharp daily down channel from March. CHF/JPY is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the powerful support level 102.20 (which stopped the previous waves (1) and B). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9905 |
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Forex trading plan for August 4
US dollar index: DXY recovered a bit, but remains under bearish pressure after breaking below important support in the 95.40 area on Tuesday. According to ADP report, US private sector added 179K new jobs in July and the reading for June was also revised higher to 176K. However, dollar bulls are still discouraged by the previous weak American data and US ISM services PMI came out at 55.5 below the consensus forecast of 56.0. On Thursday America will release unemployment claims (12:30 GMT) and factory orders (14:00 GMT). EUR/USD: The pair met resistance of the 100-day MA at 1.1235 and retreated below 1.1200 breaking the short-term uptrend. Support is at 1.1180/70. Below this level the euro will correct down to 1.1120/00. This is our main scenario. There will be news of low importance in the euro zone’s economic calendar: ECB economic bulletin and retail PMI. On the upside further resistance is located at 1.1285 (2016 resistance line). GBP/USD: The pair consolidated in the 1.3365/00 area ahead of the Bank of England’s Super Thursday – the day, when the central bank announces its monetary policy decision and releases the minutes of the meeting, as well as its quarterly inflation report (11:00 GMT). In addition, Governor Mark Carney will conduct a press conference (11:30 GMT). The BOE is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, but the move is already completely priced in GBP/USD. Pound met resistance at the top of the short-term rising channel. Decline below 1.3300 should meet support at 1.3250 and 1.3215. USD/JPY: The pair found support at 100.70, but remained near 3-week lows. The picture remains bearish. There are no reasons for a reversal to the upside, just a correction is possible. We’ll be looking for entry points to add to the short position at 101.80. Other resistance levels are at 102.50 and 103.50. Below 100.80 the next target will be at 100.00. AUD/USD: The pair was stopped by April-July resistance line in the 0.7635. However, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cut, there was no big selloff in Aussie. Australia will release retail sales at 01:30 GMT, the forecast is positive. AUD/USD is expected to consolidate in the 0.7600/0.7550. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9906 |
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EUR/USD: new yearly low is coming because of "Shooting Star"
8/4/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdhW.png There’s a correction inside the main bearish trend. Also, the price faced a resistance on the 34 & 55 Moving Average lines. Moreover, there’s a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed by the “Three Line Strike” pattern. However, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local low, but its confirmation hasn’t arrived yet, so the price is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average once again. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh4.png We’ve got a reversal “Shooting Star” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, if we see any bullish pattern on the nearest “Window”, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Harami” at the local high, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, bears will probably try to test the closest support line, which could bring any kind of bullish pattern. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9907 |
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USD/JPY: bears going to break the last low
8/4/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...308usdjpyW.png There's a “Shooting Star” at the local high, which has been confirmed strongly. So, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH4.png We've got a confirmed bullish “Harami” at the last low, but the nearest “Window” could act as a resistance. If so, the current downward price movement is likely going to be continued. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish and we haven’t got any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible the further sellers steps. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9908 |
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GBP/USD & BoE Interest Rate Decision: Will the downside pressure return to the Sterling?
8/4/2016 Today at 11:00 GMT will be released the BoE interest rate decision, where the markets are expecting a rate cut by 25 bp. Currently, the rates stand at 0.50% and that could give the bears enough momentum to push lower the Cable towards the post-Brexit lows. 30 minutes later will speak the BoE's Governor Carney, where the markets will be closely watching, as it's speech could give us further hints in terms of economic measures for the United Kingdom in the mid-term, following the Brexit's outcome. The technical picture for GBP/USD at H4 chart is still very bearish and also, it's trapped inside the post-Brexit range. A pullback is expected around the 1.3358 level towards the support zone of 1.2845 if the BoE's stance is dovish than expected and the central bank decides to cut rates. However, if there are no major actions by the BoE today, then we can see a slight rise and test the 1.3615 level, where the 38.2% retracement zone (from pre-Brexit's peak) is placed. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSDH4(4).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9909 |
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EUR/USD: bulls showed weakness
8/4/2016 On the daily EUR/USD chart one may see that the attack of the bulls have spluttered. The inability of the bulls to hold the pair above 1.1175 points at their weakness. Whether it's temporary or we are speaking about the resumption of bearish trend will become clear in the coming days. For now the pair's falling to the upper border of the previous bearish channel (23.8% Fibonacci of the last medium-term bearish wave). [IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9910/Screenshot_2016_08_04_07_01_14.png On H1 EUR/USD completed Fakeout-Shakeout and "3 Indians" pattern. The nearest resistance is near 1.1170, support levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1080. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_07_01_30.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9910 |
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USD/CAD: loonie is searching for a new driver
8/4/2016 On the daily chart USD/CAD returned to the levels inside the rising triangle. A break above its upper bordrer will help to restore the medium-term bullish trend. As a result, the pair may realize 161.8% of AB=CD pattern target at 1.3520. On the other hand, decline below the diagonal support will lead to continuation of the decline to 1.2720 (88.6% of the "Shark" pattern target). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_07_07_04.png On H1 USD/CAD completed the widenind wedge pattern. After correction to waves 4-5 the beras seized initiative that allowed the pair to reach 127.2% of teh Shark parren target. The pair formed the double bottom and is currently consolidation in the 1.3-1.314 area. The break of this range will determine further dicrection of the pair. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_07_07_24.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9911 |
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EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bullish rally
8/4/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png The price has faced a resistance at 1.1235, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so we’ve got the current downward movement. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1120 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards a resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair found a support on the 55 Moving Average. Also, there’s a possible “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1120. However, if a pullback from this support happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1196 – 1.1222. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9912 |
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GBP/USD: consolidation going to be continued
8/4/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price is moving up and down along a resistance at 1.3339. So, the pair is likely going to achieve a support near the 55 Moving Average. If bears be stopped here, then an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.3400 – 1.3471. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a consolidation, but also there’s a local “Double Top”. In this case, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.3247. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.3370 – 1.3400. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9913 |
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EUR/USD: wave [i] going to end
8/4/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4080930001.png Wave 4 has been ended in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). It’s likely that we’ve got wave [i] in progress, which main target is 2/8 Murrey Math Level. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4080930002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been declining in wave [i]. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach 4/8 Murrey Math Level in the short term. If wave (v) finishes at this level, bulls will probably try to deliver wave [ii]. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9914 |
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EUR/USD: euro has corrected
8/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1130/40; SL — 1.1110; TP1 — 1.1220; TP2 – 1.1270. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(17).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9917 |
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GBP/USD: waiting for the end of correction
8/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3270; resistance – 1.3370, 1.3480. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.3270; SL — 1.3250; TP1 — 1.3370; TP2 — 1.3480. Reason: a bullish Cloud with growing range; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the markets overbought is finished. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...bpusdh4(8).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9918 |
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AUD/USD: the Bulls are on the attack
8/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7560, 0.7590; resistance – 0.7620. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7590; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7680; TP2 — 0.7750. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B are growing up; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...udusdh4(3).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9919 |
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EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900
8/4/2016 EUR/AUD reversed from resistance level 1.4900 Next sell target - 1.4500 EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which began earlier - when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 1.4900. The active minor impulse wave (iii) belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) form the middle of February. EUR/AUD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.4500 (which reversed earlier impulse waves (iii), 1 and (i) in May, April and June, as can be seen below). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9924 |
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EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone
8/4/2016 EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.4400 EUR/CAD continues to fall after the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4730 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of May), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the start of April. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing. EUR/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4400 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 1.4280. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9925 |
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Key option levels: August 4
8/4/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...RUSDnew(3).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 16 208 ↑ + 50 131 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.1176; 1.1198; 1.1223; 1.1259 Closest support levels 1.1119; 1.1084; 1.1041; 1.0995 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell pair below 1.1119, with target points at 1.1084 and 1.1041 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1176 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1198 and 1.1223 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DJPYnew(3).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 3 991 ↑ + 1 280 ↑ Closest resistance levels 101.45; 101.77; 102.18; 102.64 Closest support levels 100.74; 100.54; 100.26; 99.88 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.45, with the target points at 101.77 and 102.18 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.74 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.54 and 100.26 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DCADnew(3).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 424 ↑ + 614 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.3091; 1.3122; 1.3179; 1.3254 Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3026; 1.2972; 1.2900 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell USD/CAD below 1.3055, with the target points at 1.3026 and 1.2972 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3091 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3122 and 1.3179 EUR JPY CAD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9926 |
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USD/JPY & US NFP July Release: It's time for greenback's bulls?
8/5/2016 Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the US Non-Farm Employment change, where the markets are expecting a decrease from 287K to 180 for July's reading. However, last month's data was very positive and Wednesday's US ADP data gave some hints that we could see another positive NFP release today. During the week, some Fed's officials have been talking about the good shape that US economy is having nowadays and following a “muted” tone from FOMC minutes, traders will be highly expecting this release. Our technical overview for USD/JPY at H4 chart is calling for further declines, as we have been seeing a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA, after a failed breakout above that dynamic resistance offered by the moving average. There is a critical support placed around the 100.35 level, where we could expect a breakout only if the US NFP is weaker than expected and eventually it can make new “post-Brexit” lows across the board. The bullish scenario can be calling for a very strong support around the 100.35 level, that could give fresh momentum to the pair in order to rally towards weekly's highs. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DJPYH4(12).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9927 |
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EUR/USD is stuck in the dead area
8/5/2016 On the daly chart the pair keeps moving in line with scenario we've outlined in the previous article: the recoil down from the upper border of the descending trend channel (painted in red) and the following growth towards 1.1175. If the bulls manage to reach this level and then renew July high, the pair will likely move towards 1.1260 and 1.1340. On the other hand, inability to hold above 1.1114 will show that the buyers are weak. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_36_09.png On H1 EUR/USD formed descending trend channel. The nearest support levels are at 1.1114 and 1.1082. Look for resistance near 1.1170 and 1.1235. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_36_31.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9928 |
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EUR/USD: bearish wave [iii] going to start soon
8/5/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5080324001.png Wave [i] was possible ended yesterday, so there’s time for a local correction. Previously, wave 4 finished in a form of a “Double Three”, so we’ve got a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). The main target for wave [ii] is 3/8 Murrey Math Level, which could be a jumping-off point for wave [iii]. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5080324002.png As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of [i] was ended near 4/8 Murrey Math Level. So, the price is likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. If a pullback from 6/8 Murrey Math Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (i). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9929 |
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GBP/USD: bears took hold of pound
8/5/2016 On the daily chart GBP/USD came to the lower border of the medium-term consolidation range of 1.3075-1.3494. The break of support will activate AB=CD pattern with target at 1.2870. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_46_06.png On H1 the materialization of the models "3 Indians" and "Head and Shoulders" at 161.8% AB=CD target made the pair return inside the 1.3071-1.33 trade channel and settle close to its lower border. The sentiment remains bearish, and the move to 1.316 (23.8%), 1.321 (38.2%), 1.3245 (50%) and 1.328 (61.8%) should be used for opening short positions. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...5_07_46_33.png More; https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9930 |
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EUR/USD: euro hovered above the cloud
8/5/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1130/40, 1.1105; resistance – 1.1170, 1.1220. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1170; SL — 1.1190; TP1 — 1.1105; TP2 – 1.1080. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling down Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(18).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9931 |
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USD/JPY: bearish mood is active
8/5/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.80; resistance – 101.50, 101.80. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 101.50; SL — 101.70; TP1 — 100.60; TP2 — 99.60. Reason: actual dead cross formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; bearish Ichimoku Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...sdjpyh4(4).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9932 |
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EUR/USD: bears dominating after "V-Top" pattern
8/5/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H4.png There’s a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is trading near the Moving Average lines. Therefore, it’s likely that the market is going to decline towards a support at 1.1083 – 1.1059 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this area, a correction price movement will be on the table, so we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.1222 – 1.1235. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-EUR-H1.png The price has faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. Under these circumstances, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average during the day. However, if a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.1145 – 1.1032. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9933 |
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GBP/USD: "Triple Top" points to bear's reappearance
8/5/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H4.png The price was consolidating along a resistance at 1.3339, which ended up by the massive decline. However, bears faced a support at 1.3119, which led to the current local upward movement. So, sellers are likely going to move on. The main intraday target is a support at 1.3015 – 1.2945. Considering a possible pullback from this area, an bullish correction becomes possible later on. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...016-GBP-H1.png We’ve got a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the yesterday’s dramatically fast downward price movement. Therefore, it’s likely to see a local bullish correction during the day, because there’s a pullback from the nearest support at 1.3116. At the same time, bears are so strong, which makes possible an achievement of the next support at 1.3071 – 1.3017. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9934 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels: August 5
8/5/2016 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../EURUSD(8).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 11 757 ? + 118 596 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1188; 1.1215; 1.1234; 1.1256 Closest support levels 1.1103; 1.1068; 1.1044; 1.1016 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Sell EUR/USD below 1.1103, with target points at 1.1068 and 1.1044 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1188 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1215 and 1.1234 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../USDJPY(7).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 895 ? + 1 287 ? Closest resistance levels 102.03; 102.44; 102.69; 102.99 Closest support levels 100.68; 100.30; 100.11; 99.88 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.03, with the target points at 102.44 and 102.69 Alternative scenario Moving below 100.68 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 100.30 and 100.11 EUR JPY More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9937 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Engulfing" set up bullish correction
8/5/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh4.png There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. So, it’s likely that the price is going to reach the nearest resistance in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to move up and down between the closest support & resistance levels. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08eurusdh1.png We've got an “Engulfing” on the 89 Moving Average line, but also there’s an unconfirmed “Harami” at the local low. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line, which could reverse the price movement into a bearish direction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9938 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: Moving Average waiting for bulls
8/5/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH4.png There's an “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Also, here’s “Thrusting Line”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet, so right after a local correction bears will probably try to break the last low. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...08usdjpyH1.png We've got a “High Wave” on the 34 Moving Average line, which has confirmed enough. Therefore, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach the 34 Moving Average once again during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to see another bearish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9939 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/NZD under bearish pressure
8/5/2016 GBP/NZD under bearish pressure Next sell targets - 1.8000 and 1.7750 GBP/NZD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3), which is the part of the primary downward impulse wave ⑤, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the round resistance level 1.9000 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the end of June. GBP/NZD is expected to fall further in the active impulse waves (3) and ⑤ toward the next sell target at the support level 1.8000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.7750 (forecast price for the completion of wave (3)). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9940 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone
8/5/2016 EUR/NZD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.5400 EUR/NZD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 - which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse (5) from the middle of July. Impulse wave (5) started when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5850 (former support from June), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of May. Given the strength of the downtrend that can be seen on the daily EUR/NZD charts - the pair is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.5400. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9941 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
US dollar: outlook for August 8-14
8/5/2016 In the first days of the past week the US dollar was still feeling the negative impact of the market’s disappointment with weak American Q2 GDP growth. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also declined, though the sectors kept growing, just at a slower pace. American labor market data released on Friday brightened the picture. US nonfarm payrolls showed solid gain in jobs in July. NFP came at 255K beating the forecast of 180K. June reading was revised up to 292K. The unemployment rate didn’t decline, but growth of average hourly earnings accelerated to 0.3%. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9942/usd_nfp.png As the Bank of England eased monetary policy in the past week, it reminded investors about monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The difference is that the Fed is at least looking for opportunity to tighten policy and this should support the greenback. The market currently sees 9% chance of US rate hike in September. Positive data inflow from the world’s largest economy may increase these expectations and, consequently, demand for the greenback. Next week the most important day in the US economic calendar will be Friday: America will release retails sales, producer prices and preliminary consumer sentiment. US dollar index managed to return above 96.00 after testing levels below 95.00. Resistance is at 97.60 and 98.00. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../usd_index.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9942 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: outlook for August 8-14
8/5/2016 EUR/USD rose to 6-week highs above 1.12, but 2016 resistance line limited further advance. The pair was constrained on the upside by 100-day MA. All in all, the lines are horizontal, which means that there’s no strong pull for the pair in either direction. Below 1.1100 (50-week MA) the pair will head to the lower border of the recent trading range at 1.1015/00. Next support will be at 1.0960 (June-July support line). Fundamentally there are reasons for the euro to find support at the mentioned levels. As the Bank of England has launched itself into new aggressive monetary stimulus measures, a more moderate approach of the European Central Bank will become distinct – a positive thing for the euro. Problems with European banking sector are not expected to harm the single currency in the near-term as well. Next week watch German industrial production and Sentix investor confidence on Monday, German trade balance on Tuesday, French industrial production on Friday and the euro area’s preliminary GDP on Friday. It will be the second estimate of the region’s economic growth in Q2: according to the initial data GDP growth slowed down from 0.6% to 0.3%. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(10).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(10).png |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: outlook for August 8-14
8/5/2016 The Bank of England eased monetary policy in order to reduce uncertainty caused by Brexit. The regulator cut the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.25% and expanded bond buying by 60 billion pounds of government bonds and 10 billion pounds of corporate bonds. The BoE also set up a new funding scheme for lenders. This easing package has exceeded the market’s expectations. Note that Governor Carney said that further interest rate cuts are possible, though underlined that the rates will remain above 0. Still, given solid US labor market figures British pound will likely remain under negative pressure versus the US dollar. GBP/USD fell below 1.3100. The pair breached down the triangle and the next levels to watch on the downside are 1.3000, 1.2950 and 1.2840. Resistance is at 1.3100 and 1.3210. As for British economic calendar, important pieces of data are due on Tuesday: don’t miss the releases of manufacturing production and goods trade balance. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDDaily(8).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9944 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: outlook for August 8-14
8/5/2016 USD/JPY tested lower levels as it slid to support at 100.70. Japanese cabinet approved 13.5 trillion yen ($132.04 billion) in fiscal measures on Tuesday to revive the nation’s economy. There was no significant impact on the market from the decision as the news about this stimulus package were out a week before. Although the regulator announced plans to review stimulus program in September, traders fear that the Bank of Japan has run out of monetary policy tools. Good nonfarm July payrolls provided a positive driver for USD/JPY. However, the overall downtrend is still in place, and we believe that recovery represents nothing more but correction. Resistance lies at 102.50 and 103.60. Break below 100.70 will open the way down to 100.00. Japan will release current account figures on Monday and core machinery orders together with tertiary industry activity figures on Wednesday. Rapidly expanding current account surplus is a source of negative pressure on USD/JPY. Also pay attention to statistics from China that will have an impact on the market’s risk sentiment: the nation will release trade balance on Monday, inflation on Tuesday and industrial production on Friday. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PYDaily(7).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9945 |
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