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USD/JPY: yen looses its strength
3/2/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, bulls managed to push quotes beyond the descending trading channel. As a result, the chances of the uptrend recovery and implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Shark" inverted pattern have increased. But, first, buyers need to consolidate above the level of 114.03. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_08_22_58.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the target 113% in the "Shark" inverted pattern has been fulfilled. After this the probability of rollback in the direction of 50% level of the CD wave and transformation of the pattern in 5-0 normally increases. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...2_08_23_12.png Recommendations: BUY 113,55 SL 113 TP1 115 TP2 115,65, BUY 112,95 SL 112,4 TP 114,6. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12699 |
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AUD/USD: aussie going to SSB
3/2/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7640, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7700/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7720. Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; prices are on the support of Senkou Span B. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(84).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12700 |
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USD/JPY: on the way to 3-W highs
3/2/2017 Technical levels: support – 113.190; resistance – 114.50. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 113.90; SL — 113.70; TP1 — 114.50; TP2 — 115.00. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the rising lines; the prices are supported by the Cloud. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(81).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12701 |
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Morning brief for March 2
3/2/2017 Another Fed officials repeated the proverbial mantras about their readiness to raise rates. This time there were New York Fed president Bill Dudley and FOMC member Lael Brainard speaking from the rostrum. Usually, Brainard tends to be more dovish on the rate decisions. In the early hours of this session, however, she started singing a tune of her predecessors having said that the US is almost ready for rate hike “soon” given improved global outlook and accelerating growth the US. Market-implied probabilities for a March rate hike shift from 50% to 80%. This may result in market's disappointment, if US payrolls report coming on March 10 shows that earnings growth is not starting to pick up. USD bulls will have to limit their appetites for a March hike. Additional drag/lift for the greenback can be offered by the US administration next week that should provide us with more comprehensive details on its tax plans. The US dollar has strengthened further (one would think, it has already risen to mush). The euro declined to 1.0530 in the absence of positive news from the Eurozone and Fed's officials working hard. Technically, 1.0500 is rather strong support. If it is broken, the euro will enter a bearish phase. Today’s focus will be on the Eurozone inflation data that should be released at 12:00 pm MT time. GBP/USD extended its losses having slid to 1.2275 in the Asian session. A bit disappointing manufacturing PMI added to political nerves that have already started pressuring the currency again as we are within a whisker of legal Brexit. Keep an eye on today’s construction PMI figures. If they come short of market’s expectations, the pair may be sent lower towards 1.2200. Australian trade balance data that was released earlier today was not in line with market’s expectations. AUD/USD slipped some additional points and fell below 0.7660. The economic calendar for this currency pair is rather light only US unemployment rate release coming at 15:30 MT time. The technical outlook for the pair shifted from bullish to the neutral one. The prices may shoot in any directions. The rebound from the present levels to 0.7700/0.7710 area could be followed by the retracement towards the previous supports at 0.7625/0.7605 levels. Kiwi has weakened further against the USD having slid to 0.7130. In the early hours of the session, the RBNZ Governor Wheeler were speaking, but the market’s reaction to his comments was subdued. USD/CAD spiked to 1.3345 overnight. The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate target at 0.5%. Brent oil futures skidded to $56.15 from yesterday’s high at $57.05 having become an additional headwind for the loonie. Today you should focus on the Canadian GDP monthly update that should be released at 15:30 MT time. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12702 |
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EUR/USD: support waiting for bears
3/2/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7-EUR-H4-1.png The last “Triple Top” pattern led to decline, so the price faced a support at 1.0520. Nevertheless, the market is likely continue falling down towards the next support at 1.0493. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7-EUR-H1-1.png Bears found a support at 1.0520, so the price is testing the nearest Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “V-Top”, so the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the next support at 1.0493 during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0569 – 1.0578. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12703 |
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GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to bearish rally
3/2/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7-GBP-H4-1.png The price faced a support at 1.2260. However, bears are likely going to continue pushing the market lower, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.2231 – 1.2198 as a possible intraday target. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7-GBP-H1-1.png There’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2231 – 1.2198 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction towards the closest resistance at 1.2315 – 1.2347. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12704 |
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Key option levels for Thursday, March 2nd
3/2/2017 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSD(107).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 175 ? + 547 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2296; 1.2330; 1.2362; 1.2404 Closest support levels 1.2280; 1.2254; 1.2227; 1.2188 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2296, with target points at 1.2330 and 1.2362 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2280 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2254 and 1.2227 AUD/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../AUDUSD(4).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 242 ? + 1 317 ? Closest resistance levels 0.7672; 0.7713; 0.7753; 0.7801 Closest support levels 0.7659; 0.7634; 0.7594; 0.7548 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7659, with the target points at 0.7634 and 0.7594 Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7672 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7713 and 0.7753 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12706 |
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USD looks bullish... for now
3/2/2017 The market seems bullish on the US dollar as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike increase. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the odds of the US rate hike on March 17 equal to 66.4%. According to other counts, the possibility is as high as 80%. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../Fed_watch.png Traders have started to believe that the US central bank will raise interest rates after hawkish comments from the FOMC members (William Dudley, John Williams, Lael Brainard). Although Donald Trump didn’t go into details in his speech to the Congress, he still emphasized his intentions to conduct spending and fiscal stimulus. For the time being this is enough to convince investors in a favorable background for the US economic growth. US 2-year Treasury yields rose yesterday above 1.30%, the highest level since August 2009. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../US_2-year.png The recent American data were rather positive. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to two and a half year high in February. There’s potential for the market to price in the higher possibility of March rate hike. For that we need the “yes” from Janet Yellen this Friday (March 3) and for the US labor market figures on March 10 to be strong. Note, however, that the main strength of the US dollar can materialize before the Fed’s meeting. After that, the greenback may become vulnerable. Firstly, if the Fed doesn’t deliver a rate hike, markets, which have priced in the rate hike, will start selling the USD. Secondly, if there’s an actual rate hike, US stocks (currently at record highs) may slide. This, in turn, may negatively affect the USD. The US dollar index rose has managed to overcome the resistance of the 50-day MA (now acting as support at 101.22). Resistance is at 102.00 ahead of 102.80. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...07/USD(11).png Gold was rejected from $1260 because of stronger USD but managed to find support around $1240. Given political uncertainty in Europe, the asset still looks strategically attractive in the medium term. USD/JPY recovered from last week’s lows in 111.60 area. Resistance is at 114.65/80. Note that this month analysts expect heavy repatriation of Japanese funds from abroad to Japan. This will increase demand for the yen and curb the bullish potential of the pair. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12707 |
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Brexit: full-scale attack on Theresa May
3/2/2017 It is a really tough period of time for the UK PM Therese May working to the point of exhaustion to meet her Brexit deadlines. She has to ward off numerous attacks from different fronts and not to bend under her counterparts’ verbal strain. The recent battle in the UK Parliament is lost Theresa May has recently suffered her first parliamentary defeat on the amendment that protects the right of EU nationals to remain living in Britain once the country is no longer a member of the UK. Ms.May wanted all the EU citizens to leave the UK after Brexit. The UK parliament voted against her suggestion. Having said, that securing the legal status of European citizens working in the UK is a critical priority for businesses that can face with labor shortages. Scottish assault Theresa May has to fight not only in the corridors of Brussels but also at home. Now, she is bracing up for rebuffing attacks of Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to call a second referendum on the independence of her homeland. That can coincide with the formal notification of leaving the EU. Sturgeon’s narrative is that Scotland may have no choice but to go its own way unless Ms. May softens her plan to leave the European Union and its single market. Most of the Scots voted to remain in the EU last June. The 2014 referendum on independence lacking a low number of votes to bring the UK-Scottish separation on the table. Many believe that this time, the Scots manage to reclaim their independence from the UK. European front Earlier this year, the UK banking bigshots failed to obtain a special passporting regime that could allow 5,500 financial firms based in the UK to sell their services across the EU after the UK withdrawal from EU membership. Paris, Luxemburg, Germany, Dublin, Madrid are actively bidding to take business away from the UK financial capital – London. Many banks start realizing their relocation plans. And if that happens, the impact will be felt not only by the city itself as two-thirds of the country’s employees working in the financial sector are located outside the capital, and more than half of the 176 bln pounds that the financial industry contributes to the British economy comes not from London. The British pound dropped to its 6-week low in the course of the week as weaker-than-expected economic releases added to political nerves that have started to pressure on GBP in the countdown to triggering Article 50. It seems that it will extend its losses upon the actual EU-UK separation. But the main question is still open: when Ms. May will send the country’s request to leave the EU? Mind-boggling process of choosing the time for the Brexit summit The timing for launching the UK’s negotiations with the EU is still undecided. Many British ministers voiced their displeasure of sending the divorce letter close to March 25, when EU leaders traditionally meet in Rome to celebrate 60 years when the bloc’s founding treaty was signed (Paris treaty 1957). Then, there will be Easter holidays in Europe followed by the French two-round presidential election on April 23 and May 7. That will certainly complicate any summit to be held later than April 7. Theresa May would probably gain royal assent on the start of Brexit as early as March 15. After the Scotts started discussing their referendum, UK prime minister might be willing not to invoke Article 50 until Scotland’s ruling nationalists finish a party conference on March 18 not allowing Nicola Sturgeon to press a case for the UK-Scotland separation on the basis of Scottish rejection of the Ms. May hard line in Brexit talks. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12708 |
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EUR/USD: bulls beg for mercy
3/3/2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, "bears" for the second time in the last two weeks faced with the important psychological level of 1.05. If it is tested, the target 88.6% in the AB = CD pattern will be implemented. The trend is still downward, so it makes sense to form shorts on pullbacks or breakouts of the support. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_08_28_24.png On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the "bulls" can launch the counterattack from the 1.044 level. There is a target in the AB = CD pattern, and the Three Indians pattern. The nearest resistance levels are located near the 1.055 and 1.058 levels. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_08_28_39.png Recommendations: SELL 1,055 SL 1,0605 TP1 1,044, TP2 1,038, SELL 1,058 SL 1,0635 TP1 1,044 TP2 1,038. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12716 |
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USD/CAD: loonie was struck by the Wolfe wave
3/3/2017 On the USD/CAD daily chart, Wolfe waves signals worked well and brought profits on the previously formed longs. "Bulls" push quotes towards resistance at 1.357 (50% of the last long-term downward wave), and the upper boundary of the rising trading channel. While the pair is above 1.3306, buyers keep the situation under control. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_08_28_54.png On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the realization of "Crab" inverted pattern continues. Its near-term target 127.2% is located near the 1.35 mark. Correction in the direction of 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the last upward wave can be used for the formation of longs. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_08_29_08.png Recommendation: BUY 1,33 SL 1,3245 TP 1,35. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12717 |
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EUR/USD: euro on the weekly support
3/3/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0500; resistance – 1.0540. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0530; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0450; TP2 – 1.0410. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the prices are on the support on a weekly timeframe. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(98).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12718 |
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GBP/USD: pound going lower
3/3/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2225; resistance – 1.2280, 1.2350. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2280; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2225; TP2 — 1.2100. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed a new local lows of the month. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(77).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12719 |
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Morning brief for March 3
3/3/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...440695-517.jpg The US dollar mushroomed up overnight as pricing expectation for a Mach hike have increased substantially. A chorus line of Fed’s senior officials singing throughout this week pushed the implied probability of the rate move this month to 74% from last week 30%. It seems that only next Friday’s US employment report can bring to a halt the Fed’s rate increase decision. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Stanley Fischer are both due to impress the market with their rich throaty voices at 8:00 pm MT time. FOMC members Evans and Powell will warm up the audience at 5:15 pm and 7:15 respectively. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0490 overnight. EU inflation jumped to 2% (the ECB’s target), core measure, however, was in line with market’s expectation. The ECB might not revise its ultra-loose monetary stance and inflation outlook after such data print attributing upticks in inflation rates to the surging oil prices. Today’s focus will be on the German retail sales and Fed officials’ speeches. USD/JPY slipped from its yesterday’s high at 114.58 to 114.05. We got Japan’s inflation data today There were some positive moments, but the figures were still very low. The Australian dollar was the major underperformer overnight. AUD/USD tumbled to 0.7540. There was a big miss on the Australian trade balance (a reminder of the damage that a strong Aussie may inflict to an economy heavily dependent on export). The nearest support is located at 0.7510 and it may not yield easily. The “break-down” support at 0.7605 now is acting as a rather strong resistance. The New Zealand dollar sold off sharply in sympathy with the Aussie. NZD/USD broke below multiple supports (50- and 200-day MAs located at 0.7150/0.7130). Now, it poised to test 70 cents area. The economic calendar for New Zealand is light for today. So, the greenback will be a bellwether in today’s sessions. Sterling held well against the USD, having slipped only a few points. The only piece of data from the UK was the construction PMI which was in line with expectations. GBP/USD slid to 1.2260 in the Asian session. The level of 1.2200 is next support now. If it’s broken (it might happen given the UK fundamentals and political uncertainty), the pound may fall to 1.1980 mark. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12720 |
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EUR/USD: another "V-Bottom"
3/3/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0493, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0552 – 1.0578 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0493 – 1.0453. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H1.png We’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, so bulls are likely going to test an area between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.0545. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0481 – 1.0467. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12721 |
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GBP/USD: "Thorn" pushes the market into correction
3/3/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H4.png Bears faced a support at 1.2260, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Thorn” pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2277 – 1.2315, which could be a departure point for a decline towards a support at 1.2231 – 1.2198. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H1.png The price is consolidating between the levels 1.2231 – 1.2315. Considering a “Thorn” pattern, bulls are likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward price movement towards a support at 1.2231 – 1.2198. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12722 |
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AUD/USD: outlook for March 6-10
3/3/2017 Results of the past week: AUD/USD stumbled to 0.7542 in the past week amid rising probabilities for an imminent Fed rate-hike and falling commodity prices. On Friday, Aussie edged up to 0.7560 thanks to the retracement of the US bond yields and a modest upsurge in the commodities. Market participants are now focused on the Fed official’s speeches, including the Fed’s Chair Yellen. A hawkish tone of the members might trigger an additional swing in the USD. Upcoming week: Next week will start with Australian retail sales and RBA cash rate announcement. The latest Reuters poll results revealed that all economist see the Reserve Bank of Australia holding its interest rate on hold. Since Wednesday, traders will shift their focus to the US economic releases. The major ones – average hourly earnings, unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls – are expected on Friday. In the beginning of the week, Aussie may extend its losses. Later on, it may gain strength, if US employment report falls short of market’s expectations. Technical picture: We expect the recent AUD/USD pull-back to extend lower towards the next supports located in 0.7520/0.7510 area. There is a crossover of 50-day and 200-day MAs, 38.2% and 50% Fibo retracement levels from the last month low (0.7518 and 0.7450 respectively). So, we believe that USD will have to put a great deal of effort to overcome these hurdles. In case of rebound from the aforementioned supports, the quotes may rise further towards the resistance level at 0.7605. If prices manage to test it, it will indicate that the current AUD weakness has vanished. AUD/USD outlook is bearish with possible rebound from 1.7510/1.7500 levels. An upside movement is limited by the resistance at 0.7600. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(29).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12724 |
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GBP/USD: outlook for March 6-10
3/3/2017 Results of the past week: Sterling has been on a roller coaster in the past week as prices broke down to 1.2230 on the broad strengthening of the USD and investors’ jitters over the looming Brexit. Economic data was a mixed bag with a miss on the UK manufacturing PMI, construction PMI being equal to expectations and weaker-than-expected services PMI. Scotland’s parliamentary debates about the second referendum on the country’s independence from the UK put additional pressure on the GBP. Upcoming events: Next week will be the last one before the Fed’s March meeting. The main focus will be on the US employment report coming on Friday. It should set the record straight whether there is a rate hike, or Fed stays on hold. Another focus – the UK economic data, namely, Halifax House Price Index, annual budget release, manufacturing production measure and good trade balance report. Technical picture: Trading signals are aligned bearishly across the trading desk which should limit upside scope for the pound to 1.2300/1.2350 area. In the short-term, GBP may extend its retracement towards 1.2200, 1.2120 (January 17 low), especially if the Fed speakers and the US labor market report favor a rate hike in the next meeting. The extent of the decline should be limited, though. Stochastic indicator on the H4 timeframe has been trading in the oversold territory for a long time. So, there is a building pressure for some relief. The pound may bow to this pressure, having risen to the nearest resistances at 1.2315, 1.2360. Our outlook for the Cable is bearish; the prices can slide towards 1.2200 support or lower. The restoration of the uptrend is possible only if quotes test the level of 1.2400 level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PUSDH4(21).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12725 |
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US dollar: outlook for March 6-10
3/3/2017 Results of the past week: The US dollar broke above February highs and reached the highest levels since the beginning of January. The main bullish driver of the American currency was the increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise the interest rate on March 15. Many investors weren’t positioned for the possibility of the rate hike this month, and hawkish comments from the Fed members made them adjust their positions by buying USD. According to CME Group's FedWatch program, traders see almost 80% of a rate hike in March. Even “dovish” FOMC members said that rates should be raised “soon”. Not all American data are shiny, but consumer confidence and business sentiment rose to new highs. In addition, the US President Trump reiterated his campaign pledges before the Congress on lower taxes and higher spending – the market had a positive impression from his speech. Upcoming events: Whether the greenback can gain more in the coming days, depends on the speeches of Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Friday evening. Plus, traders will get final hints from the US labor data due on Friday, March 10. Strong reading will confirm the upcoming rate hike. Apart from nonfarm payrolls, pay attention to average hourly earnings figures. Technical picture: Resistance for the US dollar index lies at 102.80 (78.6% Fibo of January decline). Support is at 101.65/50 and 100.95. Outlook: US dollar has certainly improved its positions. The currency has chances to strengthen ahead of the Fed’s meeting, although its ability to continue rising after the meeting is very questionable. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl..._index(24).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12726 |
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Beware of March 15
3/3/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6a44d1d909.jpg Don’t be too excited with Trump’s fiscal stimulus. According to David Stockman, a former businessman who served at the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, there would rather be “a fiscal bloodbath and a White house train wreck like never before in US history” than the substantial fiscal boost for the US economy. Why would he say like that? Because on March 15 the suspension of the US debt ceiling will be expired. It means that the Administration won’t be allowed to borrow money to cover its excessive expenses, because the government debt will be frozen. The Administration will be left with around $200 bln in cash. And with monthly expenses accounting for $75 billion, it will be left without cash. You can imagine what might happen next. The US will default on some of its debts. This will create chaos in the world markets and lead to the substantial interest rate increases. There will be no tax relieves for corporation and middle-class, no excessive expenses on infrastructure and defense promised by Mr. Trump. The suspension was part of the budget agreement signed by the former US President Obama and House speaker John Boehner. If Congress does nothing (and that is what probably will happen) – the Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will have to do something to prevent an imminent fiscal crisis. Mr. Mnuchin will probably have to start using special accounting measures to keep paying the country’s bills without violation of the borrowing limit. But as you understand, it cannot last endlessly, the time will eventually run out. According to the estimates of outside think-tanks, special accounting measures can be used until July, possibly a little longer. Then, the debt ceiling will be enacted. This something market participants and many policy-makers are missing, or just don’t want to mention publicly not to sow a panic in advance. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12727 |
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Key option levels for Monday, March 6th
3/5/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...URUSD(137).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 54 741 ? + 68 619 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0676; 1.0727; 1.0748; 1.0774 Closest support levels 1.0617; 1.0586; 1.0556; 1.0538-17 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0617, with target points at 1.0586 and 1.0556 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0676 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0727 and 1.0748 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSD(108).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 34 328 ? - 36 869 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2311(?); 1.2377; 1.2411; 1.2433; 1.2456 Closest support levels 1.2280; 1.2259; 1.2226; 1.2205 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2311, with target points at 1.2377 and 1.2411 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2280 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2259 and 1.2226 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDCAD(118).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest - 18 936 ? - 15 694 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3399; 1.3426; 1.3450; 1.3483 Closest support levels 1.3355; 1.3312; 1.3280; 1.3238 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3399, with the target points at 1.3426 and 1.3450 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3355 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3312 and 1.3280 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12734 |
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GBP/USD: bears are heading the lead
3/6/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, implementation of the "Splash and ledge" allowed "bears" to create a downward trading channel. As long as the quotes are below the resistance at 1.2385, sellers maintain control over the pair. Targets 113% and 161.8% in the "Shark" and AB = CD patterns remain unfulfilled. A further move downwards is not ruled out. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6_08_11_29.png On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the next important level of support is located near 1.2265 level. A breakout of this level will lead to the restoration of the downtrend. In contrast, a rebound will lead to the formation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6_08_11_42.png Recommendation: SELL 1,2265 SL 1,232 TP 1,215. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12736 |
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EUR/JPY: bulls hit an iron ceiling
3/6/2017 On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes returned to the lower boundary of the last trading channel 121.15-123.8. A break of resistance could lead to the implementation of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern, but the "bears" managed to maintain this important level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6_08_16_30.png On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, a reversal of the downward trend happened due to the realization of the "Three Indian" and AB = CD patterns. At the present time, quotes came to the convergence zone at 120.9-121.1. The zone can be identified due to the target 161.8% in the "Butterfly" inverted pattern and historical levels. The nearest support is located at 120.45-120.5. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6_08_16_44.png Recommendation: SELL 120,45 SL 121 TP1 119,45 TP2 116,6. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12737 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: euro returned into Cloud
3/6/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0570, 1.0520; resistance – 1.0620, 1.0650. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0600; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0520; TP2 – 1.0450. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud under strong resistance of Senkou Span B. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...rusdh4(99).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12738 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: pound corrected into channel Tenkan-Kijun
3/6/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2250; resistance – 1.2340, 1.2370. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2340; SL — 1.2360; TP1 — 1.2250; TP2 — 1.2220. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in a correctional phase and moves to channel Tenkan-Kijun; there is a strong resistance of Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(78).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12739 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for March 6
3/6/2017 Fed Chair Janet Yellen almost blundered out a secret about the timing of interest rate hike on Friday having confirmed that “fairly soon” can be this March. Fed Vice-Chair chipped in with “if there has been a conscious effort” to raise interest rates, “I’m about to join”. This week’s payroll report, however, may derail a March hike, if it falls short of market expectations. At the present moment, market pricing is around 80%; yields on the 10-year Treasury notes slipped some points in the Asian session. EUR/USD spearheaded on Friday. We saw Eurozone CPI edging up to 2% last week, while in Germany it fell from 2.2% to 1.9%. Germany will probably start pressuring the ECB to harden its ultra-loose monetary policy scaling back the QE program earlier than it’s planned. On the political front, there is some positive news for the euro. Angela Merkel’s conservatives have one point ahead of its major counterpart – the Social Democrats. The risk of Marine Le Pen winning French presidential election diminishes as Emmanuel Macron gains the lead even in the first round according to the weekend polls (supposedly because of the dwindling support for another right candidate – Francois Fillon). Dutch voters are turning away from the far-right populist Geert Wilders’ party. USD/JPY slid to 113.85 as investors turned to safe-haven currencies on rising geopolitical tensions in East Asia. North Korea fired 4 ballistic missiles earlier this day; the political wrangle between China and South Korea over missile defense heated up. The economic calendar for the pair is light. On the downside, there is a short-term support at 113.50. The bulls might try to test 114.00-114.70 levels. GBP/USD edged down to 1.2290 in the early hours of the Asian session. The likely invocation of Article 50 this week weighs on the pound. So, another leg lower towards 1.2200 is not ruled out. AUD/USD fell to 0.7580 in the session as we received a bit disappointing monthly inflation report. Australia retail sales improved but consumer spending outcomes were not upbringing. Don’t miss FOMC member Kashkari speaking at 10:00 pm MT time. He might add some steam to the US dollar if sings from the same script as his FOMC colleagues. USD/CAD edged up to 1.3395 on the session ignoring the recent upsurge in oil prices. Brent oil futures ticked up to $55, 73 having partially recovered from their Friday’s losses. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12740 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance
3/6/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0493, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, which has been confirmed. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. So, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0578 – 1.0552. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H1.png Bulls found a resistance at 1.0629, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s a chance to have a test of the nearest support at 1.0552 afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12742 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: time for bullish correction
3/6/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.2198, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.2347 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2260 – 1.2231. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H1.png The pair is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. Moreover, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line be on the table, there’ll be an option to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2260 – 1.2231. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12743 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Will be there a stock market crash any time soon?
3/6/2017 Will be there a stock market crash any time soon? Let’s shed the light on this question by looking at some fundamentals US equities skyrocketed to the record levels after the presidential election, as investors anticipated massive tax cuts and stimulus expenditures from Mr. Trump’s administration. But expected rally might collide with reality; and the castle the investors built with such gusto can eventually be destroyed. The S&P 500 broke the record high ($2,400) on March 1 and the streak of gains might be extended further. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed the lead and hit its historical high at $21, 169 in March driving volatility metrics to all-time lows. The market serenity is normally measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index (VIX). Just to remind you – the index shows the S&P 500’s market volatility expectations for the next 30 days. The current levels indicate that there is almost no fear in the market. This foreshadows an imminent stock market crash regardless of the fact that the US economy may experience a boost under Trump ‘s presidency. An additional factor that the pessimist equity market analysts usually voice in their forecast is the high probability of interest rate increase in March, that hit 80% after numerous FOMC officials confirmed their intentions to raise rates “fairly soon”. The upsurge the equities experienced in recent years after the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 can be attributed to the fact that the interest rate worldwide, and especially in the US, were extremely low. As the Federal Reserve and its homologs start changing their loosening monetary policy stances, the investors might rush towards currencies and bonds willing to gain higher yields with minimal risks. The stock market will be whipped by this. So, dear stock bulls, beware of near-term reversals on your technical charts! There is also another fundamental that warns us not to rush into longs on the US equities. We suggest you looking at Shiller P/E Ratio. It’s a valuation measure applied to broad equity indices, that uses real per-share earnings (ratio of a company’s stock price to the company’s earnings per share) over 10 years. The ratio’s present estimate is close to the one that could be seen in times of the Great Depression; and it is definitely much higher than the average long-term estimate (16.7% - average; 29% – current measure). Last time, the market saw such high prices in times of the dot-com bubble. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12744/1(12).png Current Shiller PE Ratio: 29.36 +0.01 (0.05%) Friday, March 3 Market optimists don’t believe traditional indicators, however, saying that the P/E ratio has its pitfalls (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles have changed significantly since the creation of the ratio; EPS can be really twisted; it may result in distortions in the calculations; P/E ratios are lower during times of high inflation because the markets see earnings as artificially distorted upwards). So, they cannot be trusted. Also, market optimists don’t believe in the occurrence of the stock market crash still having high hoped for Trump’s fiscal policies. They are sure that the markets won’t pay attention to possible policy shocks and market collapses until clear evidence of harm to the US economy surfaces. The market pessimists partially agree with this point saying that “hopes” will certainly continue driving the index to the new highs until “fear” takes over. They believe that eventually, optimists will have to face the reality and see that the accretive impact from tax reforms won’t be evident until 2018. So, from the views presented in the article, we can create a balance sheet: you may still target higher levels, as prices may still hit new lows in the short-/near-term. But, for goodness’s sake, be moderate in your bets. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12744 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance
3/6/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH4.png We’ve got a “Harami” pattern, but its confirmation is a quite weak. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver a local correction. At the same time, bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window” once again. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH1.png There’re a “Harami” and a “Dark Cloud”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12745 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
What time frame is the best for trading Forex?
3/6/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...6/giphy(3).gif There is no clear-cut answer to this question. Every Forex trader has his/her own preferences, trading techniques, strategies. Some traders need an energy boost, excitement, special drive that comes from trading in and out of the market multiple times a day. Others prefer serenity, care about their nerves; well, let’s say they are mildly interested in trading as the source of getting money. They consider it more like a hobby, so, they prefer trading on weekly, daily timeframes, not obliging themselves to be glued to the screens all the time. From our train of thought, it is easy to come to the following conclusion: there are no “best” timeframes, there are timeframes that suit you the best, that works best for you. But I bet you’re unsatisfied with such response. Unfortunately, we don’t know the readers of our public in person. But even if we knew, we wouldn’t be able to identify your personality. Because you know yourself better than some strangers from Bazooka analytical department. Here what we do, we will list some advantages, specificities of trading on various timeframes. Let’s start with the classic – daily and 4-hour timeframes. Advantages Disadvantages - these two timeframes work the best with the price action strategies. And we would highlight the following advantages of trading on these timeframes: - act as natural news filter (price action normalizes throughout the day and creates a smoother market to trade, whereas on lower timeframes you’re exposed to significant swings and troughs); - easier to develop a directional bias (because daily and 4-hour time frames allow you to obtain a general overview of the market situation; there’s a reason why even scalpers look at higher timeframes to identify their support and resistance levels); - fundamental analysis becomes very handy; these timeframes help you to be more objective in choosing a direction of the prices since you make your decisions based on economic releases, political event and other factors that you can’t control; - no need to spend lots of time in front of the screen. -transaction costs can be really high; - there is an overnight risk; - you lose some trading opportunities that appear throughout the day (you earn less than you could while trading on lower timeframes); - demands lots of patience and self-control from the trader. Trading on 1-minute/15-minute/30-minute charts Advantages Disadvantages - there are lots of profitable trading opportunities, that you won’t miss trading on the lower timeframes; - there is no overnight risk; - you can prevent yourself from significant losses - transaction costs are rather high; - it is more difficult mentally and emotionally; - you should keep a constant track of your trades. Choose your best timeframe, earn lots of money and bon vivant, dear traders! More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12746 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: "Shooting Star" pushing correction lower
3/6/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH4.png The last “Shooting Star” has been confirmed. In this case, the price is likely going to test the closest support in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the nearest local resistance. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a “High Wave” on the 89 Moving Average, but a confirmation of this pattern is quite weak. Therefore, we could have a local correction towards the last “Three Methods”, which could be a departure point for another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12747 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/JPY broke support zone
3/6/2017 NZD/JPY broke support zone Next sell target – 78.90 NZD/JPY recently broke below the support zone lying between the key support level 80.50 (which has been reversing this price from the start of December) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from the middle of November. The breakout of this support zone should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 1 from the end of January. NZD/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 78.90 (intersecting with the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned upward impulse from November). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12748 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/NZD broke major resistance level 1.0740
3/6/2017 AUD/NZD broke major resistance level 1.0740 Next buy target - 1.0900 AUD/NZD continues to rise sharply after the earlier breakout of the major resistance level 1.0740, which has reversed numerous sharp upward impulse waves from the end of July, as can be seen from the daily AUD/NZD chart below. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January. AUD/NZD is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0900. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 1.0740. [IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12749/AUDNZD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Mar-06_1648_PM_(1_day).png[/IG] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12749 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: the yen is at the crossroads
3/7/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a struggle for the important level of 114.03. If the "bulls" manage to break this level and test the resistance at 114.65, the risks of implementation of "Head and Shoulders" and "Bat" patterns will increase substantially. In contrast, the return of the pair to the borders of the downward trading channel will be a signal of the bears' strength. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_07_46_09.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the "Shark" pattern transforms into 5-0. A successful test of the support at 113.65 will activate the AB = CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near the 112.9 level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_07_46_23.png Recommendations: BUY 114,65 SL 114,1 TP1 115,65 TP2 116,8, SELL 113,65 SL 114,2 TP 112,9. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12753 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
NZD/USD: kiwi sank to the bottom
3/7/2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, the quotes moved beyond the 0.7135-0.724 consolidation range. This allowed to open shorts and lock in profits. If the "bears" manage to keep quotes below the 0.7 level, it can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern. In contrast, the bulls' win can lead to the development of the consolidation in the 0.7-0.713 range. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_07_46_37.png On the NZD/USD hourly chart, if quotes move outside the downward trading channel, it will create prerequisites for correction in the direction of the 113% target in the "Shark" inverted pattern. But first, "bulls" need to test the resistance at 0.7045. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...7_07_46_51.png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12754 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: euro supported by SSA
3/7/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0570, 1.0520; resistance – 1.0620, 1.0650. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0560; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0520; TP2 – 1.0450. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span B; a new weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud on the support of Senkou Span B. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...usdh4(100).png ore: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12755 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: weakness of Bulls
3/7/2017 Technical levels: support – 113.50, 113.30; resistance – 114.00/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 113.90; SL — 114.00; TP1 — 113.30; TP2 — 113.00. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the channel is narrow; the prices are Tenkan and Kijun; the correction may continue deeper. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(82).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12756 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for March 7
3/7/2017 Many a mickle maks a muckle. That’s how I would describe the past sessions. A few geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula, investors’ jitters ahead of an imminent FOMC meeting next week, and traditional chit-chat about Trump’s upcoming administrative orders are more than enough to revive the market’s subdued movement. EUR/USD spiked to 1.0635 overnight but failed to consolidate in that area after market participants knew that Alain Juppe had decided not to run for the presidency any longer. Evidently, this act was interpreted as increasing the chance of anti-EU Marin Le Pen’s win in the first round. The major event of the day was the Reserve Bank of Australia rate announcement. Well, I hesitated to call it like this because it didn’t result in significant moves on the AUD/USD technical chart. The quotes traded higher to 0.7630 after the announcement. There might a pullback towards 0.7510 if prices fail to break the resistance at 1.7640. Kiwi edged up to almost 0.7010 following the pattern of its Australian counterpart. Today’s focus will be on Global Dairy Trade price index that is believed to be a very important gauge for NZD value. BNZ officials note that recent indicators and fundamentals point out at the price dip. So, there might be some further retracements towards 0.6950 support level. If there is an upsurge to 0.7050, we may believe that the immediate pressure has eased. The yen won back some earlier losses having slid to 113.80 from 114.70 against the greenback probably on the risk-averse sentiments of investors fearing ignition of the political conflict in the Asian region. On the economic front, there is nothing to report for the present moment. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...on-1525(1).jpg Samson's Fight with the Lion by Lucas Cranach the Elder Loonie was Samson killing the USD growth. USD/CAD dipped to 1.3390 in the past session. The hero might lose his “hair” today if we get upbeat US economic releases are stronger than Canadian trade balance data which will be released at 15:30 MT time. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12757 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bearish "Thorn"
3/7/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.png We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern near a resistance at 1.0640, so the market is likely going to test an area between the nearest support at 1.0552 and the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640. [I>MG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12759/7-3-2017-EUR-H1.png[/IMG] The price is consolidating along the Moving Averages. However, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0552 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try achieve the closest resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12759 |
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