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USD/JPY: Dollar going to new highs
3/10/2017 Technical levels: support – 114.90; resistance – 116.30. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 114.90; SL — 114.70; TP1 — 116.00; TP2 — 116.30. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed the new local highs. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(83).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12811 |
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EUR/USD: price going to consolidate
3/10/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.png The price faced a support at 1.0520, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Bulls reached a resistance at 1.0619 afterwards, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test an area between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest support at 1.0552. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H1.png Bulls found a resistance at 1.0621, so there’s a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.0578 – 1.0569. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0621 – 1.0639. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12812 |
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GBP/USD: bears pushing the price lower
3/10/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H4.png The price is consolidating in a range of a support area between the levels 1.2179 – 1.2048. So, the pair is likely going to test a support at 1.2120 in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H1.png The 34 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2138 – 1.2120 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards the 55 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12813 |
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Morning brief for March 10
3/10/2017 Lull before the NFP data… The Asian session was light for news and data flow. We got upbeat Australian housing data and a bit disappointing Japan’s MoF Business outlook showing a slide in business sentiment and thereby highlighting the need for BoJ’s policy accommodation. USD/JPY spiked to 115.30. The current rebound may extend higher towards 115.60/116.00 if US labor market report is strong. Aussie and kiwi both edged up against the US in the Asian session. They might erase these gains in the course of European and American sessions as there is a great probability that NFP will be in line with market expectation. Commodities remain under pressure this week with iron ore, copper, gold and oil prices sliding down. This has been the key driver of AUD underperformance. Technically, a move above 0.7560 level (50-day MA) could lead to a further upsurge. If prices fail to consolidate at present levels and return to 0.7510 area, there could be a drop towards the support at 0.7430. EUR/USD extended its overnight gains haven risen to 1.0595. This happened thanks to optimistic Draghi (ECB President) who suggested that the ECB door could be opening to the possibility of a change in policy stance in the nearest future. He also noted that there is no urgency in taking additional easing measures as the threats to the recovery of the Eurozone economies have become less severe. For the present moment, the pair moved into a consolidation phase. Here it should be noted, though, that the euro will have to work up a sweat to move higher as investors would rather buy USD ahead of the Fed’s March meeting. Don’t miss Germany’s current account data that should be released before the NFP data. USD/CAD peaked above 1.3530 overnight as Brent oil futures slid to their two-month low ($51.50). In the Asian session, Loonie regained its strength; USD/CAD fell to 1.3500. GBP/USD dropped to 1.2160. Prime Minister Theresa May still has to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. The bill allowing her to do so has yet to pass through Parliament, bypassing the opposition in the upper house. Keep an eye on the UK industrial, manufacturing and construction output data coming at 11:30 am MT time. All these readings are expected to fall short of market’s expectations. If this forecast is realized, GBP may swoop towards 1.2100. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12814 |
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NFP forecasts from banks
3/10/2017 The US Labor department releases its February jobs report at 3:30 pm MT time. The market’s majority expects the following figures: NFP – 200K, unemployment rate – 4.7%. Without further ado, there are some forecasts from banks and some comments from the WSJ analysts. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...17/nonfarm.png Bank’s forecasts Perks from the Wall Street Journal analytical team Average hourly earnings – a 0.3% monthly gain is expected It was a raw spot in the January job report. This month many economists expect a modest increase in data. An uptick in the hourly earnings figures would certainly add to the Fed’s confidence that US inflation rate is headed higher. Non-farm payrolls In January, the pace of job creation has increased significantly (the last month headline – 227K). Market forecasters expect February’s reading to be in line with the recent trend, though there are some signs that hiring could decrease. It might happen because of the unusual winter weather in the US that could reduce hiring in such weather-vulnerable sectors as construction. Another factor that could potentially trim today’s figures – Donald Trump’s January order aiming at the reduction of hiring pace. The order came too late in the month, so it couldn’t affect last month payrolls data, but it might be reflected in today’s job report. Unemployment The previous month update was 4.8%. unemployment rates were stable despite the continued increase in the number of jobs created. It’s mainly because the workforce-participation rate has stabilized after a long decline. Our chip in After ultra-strong ADP report, the market is heavily positioned for a March hike. A headline in line with expectations will be met with a quite muted reaction. A weaker than expected print will probably result in a market’s backlash and a surge in volatility. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12817 |
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test "Window" once again
3/10/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH4.png The last “Engulfing” and “Three Methods” patterns pushed the market higher. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH1.png There’s a bearish “High Wave”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. However, if we see a pullback from these lines, bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window”. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12818 |
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USD/JPY: broken "Window"
3/10/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH4.png Bulls went through the “Window”, so the price is rising. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to test this “Window” again. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a bearish “Doji” at the last high, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed enough. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a new bullish price movement. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12819 |
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USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00
3/10/2017 USD/JPY reached buy target 115.00 Next buy target – 117.00 USD/JPY recently broke above the resistance level 115.00 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 115.00 accelerated active minor impulse wave (iii) from the end of February. The price earlier broke above the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair. USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 117.00 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave (iii)). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12820 |
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CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70
3/10/2017 CHF/JPY broke resistance level 113.70 Next buy target - 115.40 CHF/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 113.70 (which reversed the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) in February, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 113.70 follows the earlier breakout of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern from January. The breakout of this Falling Wedge and of the resistance level 113.70 accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③. CHF/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next strong resistance level 115.40 (which stopped the previous long-term upward impulse ① in December). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12821 |
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Key option levels for Monday, March 13th
3/11/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...URUSD(141).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 89 456 ? + 44 668 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0691; 1.0715; 1.0741; 1.0770 Closest support levels 1.0651; 1.0615; 1.0593; 1.0569 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0651, with target points at 1.0615 and 1.0593 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0691 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0715 and 1.0741 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSD(111).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 631 ? - 84 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2206; 1.2275; 1.2295; 1.2331 Closest support levels 1.2139; 1.2100; 1.2075; 1.2047 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2139, with target points at 1.2100 and 1.2075 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2206 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2275 and 1.2295 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDCAD(122).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 152 ? - 20 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3479; 1.3503; 1.3537; 1.3589 Closest support levels 1.3443; 1.3423; 1.3374; 1.3335 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3443, with the target points at 1.3423 and 1.3374 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3479 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3503 and 1.3537 AUD/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl.../AUDUSD(5).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 199 ? + 220 ? Closest resistance levels 0.7551; 0.7575; 0.7593; 0.7616 Closest support levels 0.7524; 0.7499; 0.7462; 0.7435 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7524, with the target points at 0.7499 and 0.7462 Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7551 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7575 and 0.7593 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12822 |
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USD/JPY: bulls are doubting in their strength
3/13/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, within the inverted "Head and shoulders" and "Bat" patterns, a pin bar was formed. It is a signal of the bulls' weakness. If the "bears" manage to keep quotes below the 114.65 level, the prices may fall towards the upper boundary of the downward trading channel (112.7). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_07_51_07.png On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the breakout of the support at 114.65 will push the quotes lower towards 114 and 113.8. The nearest resistance is located near the 115.15 mark. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_07_51_22.png Recommendations: SELL 114,65 SL 115,2 TP1 113,8 TP2 112,7, BUY 115,15 SL 114,6 TP 116,8. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12824 |
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NZD/USD: kiwi caught a Bat
3/13/2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, target 88.6% in the "Bat" pattern has been implemented. At the present time, this pattern can be transformed into 5-0. This implies a 50% correction in the direction of 0.7070 and restoration of the downtrend. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_07_51_34.png On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is consolidation after the breakout of the downtrend. There can be an accumulation of long positions or closing of short positions by the major market participants. To develop a corrective movement, the "bulls" will need to test the resistance at 0.6955. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3_07_51_48.png Recommendation: BUY 0,6955 SL 0,69 TP 0,707. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12825 |
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GBP/USD: pound entered into channel Tenkan-Kijun
3/13/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2160; resistance – 1.2200/15 . Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2200; SL — 1.2220; TP1 — 1.2100; TP2 — 1.2060. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel Tenkan-Kijun. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...pusdh4(79).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12826 |
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AUD/USD: correction may continue to Cloud
3/13/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7540, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7580, 0.7610. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7540; TP2 — 0.7480. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are breakout the Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...dusdh4(87).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12827 |
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Morning brief for March 13
3/13/2017 The US dollar weakened against its major peers at the beginning of this eventful week with BoE, BoJ, Fed’s monetary policy settings, G20 meeting, a potentially divisive election in the Netherlands. EUR/USD is trading above 1.0700. The European currency hit the 1.0640 – 1.0690 levels after the ECB officials were said to have considered their ability to hike before the expiration of QE program. The pair may continue its rally towards 1.0750/1.0800. A further extension will be challenged by the political events and broad strengthening of USD. Worries about EU future remain in place as we approach Wednesday’s parliamentary election in the Netherlands with odds that far-right party manages to win a substantial share of votes. Today keep in focus the ECB President Draghi’s speech. He will deliver an opening address at an entrepreneurship conference in Frankfurt; the ECB monetary policy decision might be discussed. Aussie led gains against its American counterpart haven risen to 0.7560. The off for further gains are still unclear. We would expect AUD consolidating in the range of 0.7490/0.7620 until G20 meeting, the first meeting with participation of the Trump’s administration representative. Protectionist trade policies might be on the agenda. The country leaders may also voice their intentions to reduce trade imbalances. Kiwi showed some strength in the Asian session haven risen to 0.6940. We don’t expect a further extension from NZD/USD currency pair. NZ dollar will likely be driven by its US counterpart in the course of the week. In the meanwhile, the pair will likely be trading sideways within 0.6880/0.6980 levels. USD/JPY slipped to 114.70 on the session. Earlier this morning we had Japan’s PPI edging higher and disappointing core machine orders release. Today’s economic calendar for the pair is fairly light. So, the trading will be rather subdued without massive peaks and troughs. GBP/USD ticked up to 1.2180. The main focus of this week will the BoE meeting scheduled for March 16. Most market analysts expect BoE not changing its current monetary policy stance. Today, the house of Commons is set to debate and vote over whether to accept the amendments introduced by the upper chamber to the draft law granting UK PM Theresa May the power to trigger Brexit. In the case of the positive vote, Ms.May will be able to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty as soon as Tuesday which allows her to start talks with the EU on April 6. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12828 |
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EUR/USD: bulls going even higher
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.jpg Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0713, but the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.0732 – 1.0754. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward correction, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.0678 – 1.0655 as a possible bearish target. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H1.png The price is consolidating between the levels 1.0698 – 1.0707. Meanwhile, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0732 – 1.0739 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0678 – 1.0666. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12829 |
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GBP/USD: support waiting for bears
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H4.png The pair is moving up and down between the levels 1.2179 – 1.2048. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2198 – 1.2231 in the short term. If a pullback from this area be on the table, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards a support 1.2120 – 1.2106. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H1.png The 34 Moving Average has been broken. So, the price is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average during the day. If this line acts as a resistance, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.2138 – 1.2120. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12830 |
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USD/JPY: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017 USD/JPY spiked to 115.50 in the course of the past week but failed to hold its position on Friday after the US job market report. The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision on Thursday. According to surveys of market analysts, the bank will leave its policy unchanged refusing to provide additional stimulus to the stubbornly stagnating economy. The BoJ’s preferred measure of consumer prices has risen in January for the first time since 2015 rekindling some hopes that the inflation will start inching towards 2% target. The main focus of the meeting will be on the further BoJ’s undertakings (whether there will be a reduction of bond purchasing program; whether the bank revamps its present monetary policy stance to hit its mandate targets). Before we hear from the BOJ though, the US Federal Reserve will first take the stage and announce its rate decision on Wednesday, March 15. The markets are pricing almost 100% chance of the rate hike. If FOMC agrees to raise the interest rate, the greenback will remain supported. Whether it will be able to continue rising will depend on the Fed’s economic projections and the market’s expectations of the Fed’s future actions. In contrast, If Fed refuses to change its benchmark, it will result in a massive market’s backlash. We don’t think that the second scenario is very likely. Another key event of the week that might influence the USD/JPY exchange rate is G20 meeting scheduled for March 17-18: finance ministers and central bankers of the world’s leading economies may comment on currencies. After the rapid drop from 115.50, the USD may have moved into a consolidation phase at least for the first part of this eventful week. The pair will probably trade in the 113.10-115.10 range (the borders of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). A break of the upper level will push quotes higher towards resistance at 115.60, 116.40 and 118.60 (this year’s high). A break of the important support at 114.00 (50-day MA) will greatly improve the odds for the further decline towards the nearest supports at 112.85 (100-day MA) and 111.20 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from the last-year low). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...YDaily(35).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12832 |
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USD/CAD: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017 USD/CAD spiked to its highest levels since December 29 thanks to growing expectation of the Fed’s March rate hikes and falling oil prices. An ultra-strong ADP jobs report caused the market to price in an upbeat NFP release which resulted in a US dollar decline on Friday despite a strong reading. Next week, USD/CAD will be dominated by the trend in the US dollar as the economic calendar of its Canadian counterpart is light. Out of Canada there will foreign security purchases and manufacturing data reports both released after the major event of the week – the FOMC meeting scheduled for March 15. Pay attention to the US inflation figures and retail sales scheduled for release before the Fed’s interest rate announcement. Nearer the end of the week, the focus will shift to G20 meeting where Trump’s administration protectionism and USD appreciation will likely be discussed. Technically, a bearish Friday’s engulfing candle hints at the correction towards the nearest support at 1.3420 (50 H4 MA), 1.3280 (upper border of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). On the upside, a break of the resistance at 1.3500 will allow us to target a last year December peak at 1.3595. Before hitting this level, the prices will need to break a very strong resistance at 1.3570 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the weekly timeframe) https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...DDaily(10).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12833 |
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AUD/USD: outlook for March 13-17
3/13/2017 Australian dollar slid to 0.7490 in the past week pressured by surging US bond yields and weaker commodity prices. On Friday, Aussie regained some of its weekly losses after monthly US job report and rose to 0.7555. The main focus of this week will be on the FOMC and G20 meetings scheduled for Wednesday and Friday respectively. Ahead of the Fed’s rate announcement, the US CPI report will reveal whether inflation rate is still surging at a rapid pace that has been seen as of late. US building permits, unemployment claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released towards the end of the week, after the Fed’s rate decision. The economic calendar for Australian dollar will be extremely light with only labor data coming on March 16. Overall, it seems that this week the greenback will be a main trendsetter in the AUD/USD currency pair. After Friday’s rebound, Aussie can move further towards the nearest resistances at 0.7615, 0.7660. However, with growing probability of the rate hike, a further upside in AUD/USD will be complicated. A pullback towards the supports at 0.7530 (200-day MA), 0.7490 (March 9 low) and 0.7468 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe) is not ruled out. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12834 |
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Hetty Green – the Witch of Wall Street
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...ia-utekali.jpg Every trader has a special itch for money. We don’t want to say that it’s bad. For people who work in finance having an earnest interest in money is a necessity. In this article, we would like to condemn misers, those whose ultimate goal in life is money accumulation, those whose gimmy is insatiable. Beware of becoming such a person, because extremely greedy people eventually come to a sticky end. To prove this, we’ve decided to tell you the story of the woman who is known as the world’s greatest miser of all times – the financier Hetty Green. Ms. Green was a really talented savvy financier, one of the first women who turned a fortune on Wall Street. A smart manager of her own funds, she managed to become a major player at the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Streeters watched in astonished amazement as the rumpled, dowdy and dirty woman opened large positions in the chaotic totally unpredictable stock market, and made money almost every time. Playing in the stock market was Hetty’s self-indulgent preoccupation. Her real passion were mortgages. She also enjoyed lending money to bankers and brokerage houses. She started out with only $6 mln and turned this sum into the real fortune - $100 mln by the time of her death. Really impressive, eh? Yes, Hetty Green was a woman a century ahead of her time. I bet she would have become a great hedge fund or private equity manager. From all that has been said above, it would seem that we should praise this woman for her undertakings, admire her personality and wonder her ability to manage financial affairs. And we do give a proper respect to her talents. But we also feel obliged to point out at some seamy sides of her life. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...hattygreen.jpg Historians picture Ms. Green as wicked, greedy, extremely frugal woman with dowdy appearance, negligent to hygiene and to her surroundings. It is hard to describe the extreme of her miserliness in our such a tiny little article as ours. Stories circulate about Green’s stinginess. She was believed to wear the only black dress. She fought with everyone over money and how much she has to pay; she lined her son’s shoes and clothes with paper in wintertime. When she took her skirts to the laundry, she insisted on washing only the hems to save up more money. When her son, Ned, hurt his knee in a sledding accident, Green refused to get him a proper medical attention, because it was too costly. The boy grew up lame until in his teenage years, the leg became gangrenous and had to be amputated. When her beloved husband got bankrupt she refused to cover his debts. Green took her kids and moved to Brooklyn having decided to rent a flat in order not to pay higher taxes. Since then she went to her Wall Street office every morning at 7 am. in her ragged filthy dress wearing a black veil over her hat. Her contemporaries dubbed her a witch of Wall Street. She was watching every penny; her weekly expenses never exceeded $4 – 5; every morning she ate a dried tasteless oatmeal having heated it on a someone’s radiator in her Wall Street Office. The list of Green’s mean things can be extended. Here we’ve presented just a small number of them. But even with that, you got an idea. Our extreme greediness, avarice may make us insane, wicked people despised by the society and her nearest. The moral of this story is following: be moderate in your wishes to earn more (you’re not Hetty Green, who was so lucky that didn’t suffer great financial losses; nowadays, traders are more exposed to the risk of losing all their money), trade wisely and don’t make the money accumulation the only goal of your life. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12835 |
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EUR/USD: "Engulfing" on the "Window"
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH4.png We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern on the upper “Window”. So, the market is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH1.png There’s a bearish “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12836 |
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USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH4.png There’s a confirmed bearish “Harami”, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction towards the upper “Window” https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH1.png The last “Doji” and “Tower” led to the current decline. However, there’s a bullish “Belt Hold”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, bulls are likely going to test the closest “Window”, which could be a departure point to another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12837 |
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EUR/USD: wave [ii] ended
3/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3172208001.png We’ve got a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, so wave [ii] has been ended. Previously, a wedge in wave [i] was formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the short term. The main intraday target is 5/8 MM Level. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...3172208002.png The last bullish impulse has been ended on 7/8 MM Level, which was a departure point for wave i. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (i) during the day, so we should keep an eye on 4/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12838 |
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AUD/JPY rising inside impulse wave 3, (3)
3/13/2017 AUD/JPY rising inside impulse wave 3, (3) Next buy target – 87.40 AUD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support area lying between the support level 86.00 (which also previously stopped the ABC correction (2), as can be seen below), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) from the end of December. AUD/JPY is expected to rise in the active impulse wave 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 87.40 (top of the previous minor impulse wave 1). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12840 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0900
3/13/2017 AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0900 Next buy target - 1.1000 AUD/NZD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level - 1.0900, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.0900 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January. AUD/NZD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1000. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned price level 1.0900. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12841 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/JPY: euro caught the Shark
3/14/2017 On the EUR/JPY daily chart, the target 88.6% in inverted "Shark" pattern has been implemented. Further on, the situation can develop according to one of two scenarios: the update of the March maximum will lead to the continuation of the rally towards 113% of the XC wave (124), or there can be a transformation of the Shark pattern into 5-0. The latter scenario supposes correction towards 50% level of the SW wave (120.6). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_08_37_11.png On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern is formed. A breakout of the support at 122.07 will lead to its realization. As a result, the prices can be sent towards the lower border of the upward trading channel. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_08_37_25.png Recommendation: SELL 122,07 SL 122,62 TP1 121,15 TP2 120,6. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12843 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Gold: bulls grabbed hold of the level
3/14/2017 On the daily chart of gold, the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern hasn't been implemented. "Bulls" managed to hold their positions at the important level of $1205. If they manage to hold there longer, the prices may return towards the resistance at $ 1220. In the case of the break of the aforementioned level, there might be a correction towards the near-term upward trend. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_08_37_39.png On the hourly chart of gold, there is an intermediate target 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern. The pullbacks towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% levels can be used for the opening of short positions in the direction of the 88.6% target (near $1,189 level). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...4_08_37_53.png Recommendation: BUY $1189 SL $1180 $TP1 $1212 TP2 $1222. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12844 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: euro corrected to Tenkan-sen
3/14/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0650, 1.0620; resistance – 1.0700/20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0700; TP2 – 1.0760. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but the market is overbought. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...usdh4(102).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12845 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: Dollar supported by Kijun-sen
3/14/2017 Technical levels: support – 114.50/60; resistance – 115.50, 116.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 114.80/90; SL — 114.60; TP1 — 115.50; TP2 — 116.20. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun and supported by Kijun-sen. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...djpyh4(84).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12846 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Morning brief for March 14
3/14/2017 The UK Parliament has passed the Brexit bill, giving the government permission to trigger Article 50 and begin talks with EU. Today, the bill could receive the royal assent and become a law. Downing Street sources said that Ms. May prefers waiting until the end of March to launch the EU-UK negotiations and pull the Brexit trigger. Apparently, the British pound liked Brexit clarity as it swung to 1.2250 overnight. In the Asian session, it gave back some of its earlier gains slipping to 1.2200. In other developments, Scottish First Minister Sturgeon said she will see authority from the Scottish Parliament next week for a second referendum to leave the UK, but PM Theresa May hurried to rule it out saying that Sturgeon’s decision would set Scotland on a course for division and uncertainty. Now let us turn to the data front. Australia’s NAB business survey kicked off the day and then we received some data from China (industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment). China’s releases were rather decent with a slight miss on the retail sales; NAB business confidence was downgraded a bit, but still remained at decent levels. Aussie dipped to 0.7560 on the data flow, haven failed to break the resistance at 0.7570 (50-day MA). Although the overtone for AUD/USD currency pair has improved recently, we still expect the prices to retrace towards 0.7530, 0.7490 levels. EUR/USD spiked to 1.0715 overnight but then eased off quickly. Despite this pullback, the euro still has some steam to rise higher (at least towards 1.0750). Upbeat inflation figures coming from the UK may change the overtone to bearish and send prices lower towards the nearest supports at 1.0620/1.0615. The outlook for USD/JPY currency pair is still neutral. The pair is consolidating in the narrow range of 113.20 – 115.10 levels (the borders of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). A clear break of the resistance at 115.60 will allow us to change our outlook for bullish. USD/CAD slid to 1.3440 in the Asian session. There is a strong support at 1.34200. If it’s broken, the quotes might fall further. In commodities, oil prices pared some additional losses and dipped to $51.38 on the concerns about rising US oil production. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12847 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Key option levels for Tuesday, March 14th
3/14/2017 EUR/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...URUSD(142).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest - 2 483 621 ? - 1 577 361 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0667; 1.0686; 1.0708 Closest support levels 1.0633; 1.0600; 1.0580; 1.0558 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0633 (or from 1.0667), with target points at 1.0600 and 1.0580 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0667 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0686 and 1.0708 GBP/USD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...BPUSD(112).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 21 ? + 217 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2180; 1.2212; 1.2240 Closest support levels 1.2134; 1.2106; 1.2074 (?ritical); 1.2039 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2134 (or from 1.2159), with target points at 1.2106 and 1.2074 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2180 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2212 and 1.2240 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...SDCAD(123).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 171 ? + 52 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3457; 1.3483; 1.3521; 1.3576 Closest support levels 1.3419; 1.3364; 1.3326; 1.3277 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3457, with the target points at 1.3483 and 1.3521 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3419 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3364 and 1.3326 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12849 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls
3/14/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H4.png The price faced a resistance at 1.0732, so we’ve got a “Double Top”, which pushed the pair towards a support at 1.0640. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the next support at 1.0594 – 1.0588. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-EUR-H1.png There’s a “Double Top”, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0614 – 1.0597 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0655. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12850 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD: angry bears
3/14/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H4.png Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2260, so we’ve got two “Thorns” in a row. In this case, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the next support at 1.2106 – 1.2084. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...017-GBP-H1.png There’s a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed. All Moving Averages have been broken. In this case, the price is likely going to continue moving down. The main intraday target is a support area between the levels 1.2106 – 1.2084. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12851 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
Oil prices: never-ending war for market share
3/14/2017 The past week was really disastrous for oil prices. Brent oil futures dropped to $51 on Friday. At the present moment, prices are trading a little bit higher ($51.20), but the last week pressure is still in force. The price crash was a result of unbridled expansion of US oil industry. Baker Hughes said on Friday that American drillers added oil rigs for an eighth consecutive week. US crude inventories are chockablock with oil according to recent weekly updates; OPEC members started to backpedal on their pledges to drain the global oil glut. No wonder, prices slumped to their three-month low these days. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...EC_table_1.jpg As you see there are different definitions of compliance. Different sources show us a variety of numbers. OPEC itself has not disclosed how it measures compliance, and because the deal is very complicated and mind-boggling, calculating the actual level of compliance not as easy as pie. This doesn't allow us to objectively assess the actual level of compliance and make predictions for the further direction of the price. Oil prices are predominantly led by fundamental factors, rather than technical ones. So, with the market still digesting build-up in the US inventories and increasing number of US rigs, oil prices will likely remain under pressure for a quite prolonged period of time. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12852 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
How to measure market sentiment
3/14/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...53/sheep_1.jpg Market sentiment is a generalization of the overall dominating emotion of the majority of traders, investors. It determines the current trend of the market, as well as helps to identify the future path of the quotes and build a savvy trading strategy. As a rule of thumb, if the majority of the market wants to sell a certain currency, the market sentiment is deemed to be bearish; if most of the market participants want to buy the currency, the market sentiment is bullish. Market sentiments are fickle as the wind. They tend to change based on constant incoming news flow, economic release. Understanding the current market sentiment and exploiting it accordingly is a cornerstone for success in financial world. Here arises a big question mark. How to know/to measure dominant market sentiment? Well, there are two well-proved ways of gauging market sentiments. With one of them you are already familiar – watching news reports. About another one, you might read for the first time in this article. I am having in mind the Commitment of Traders report. The COT report provides compiled, exhaustive open interest information about futures market. It is released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission every Friday at 15:30 EST. You can get access to this report clicking this link: Commitments of Traders - CFTC It is a very useful trading information that can potentially maximize your profits because skimming through the report you can understand what the other market participants are thinking about the current state of affairs. Then, based on the information you’ve received, you can easily plan the entry and exit points. The only handicap of this sentiment tool is the time lapse between the reporting and release (three-day difference). But even with this flaw you still can get the general idea of the price directions in different currency crosses, aren’t you? This is how the COT report looks like https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12853/cot(1).png You should focus your attention on the data presented in the columns titled as “asset/manager institutional”, “leveraged funds”, “other reportable”. These groups of market participants include those who use currency for speculative purposes. Also, you can take into consideration the data presented in the column “non-reportable”. These market players are retail traders. When a particular currency is trending up against the US dollar, a net long position is registered. A short long position is registered when the currency is trending down against the greenback. The tables and charts presented on the COT official website are really clumsy. Let’s say, they are not user-friendly. Many banks present the same information in a more attractive way in their weekly forecasts. The novice traders tend to omit these useful sources of information while reading the banks’ forecasts. So, next time, you look through them, pay attention to this COT info. It is really valuable for position sizing. Of course, the COT data itself is not sufficient to generate entry and exit signals, but it may give us warning signals of a possible reversals in the spot forex market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12853 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
EUR/USD: bears came back
3/14/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH4.png The nearest “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. So, if a pullback from the 144 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an opportunity for a local correction. However, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low afterwards. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03eurusdH1.png The price achieved the “Window”, but there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, if a pullback from this level be on the table, then bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12854 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
3/14/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH4.png The last “Harami” led to the current decline. Also, there’s a “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...03usdjpyH1.png We’ve got a local bearish “Harami”, which has a confirmation. However, if the closest “Window” acts as a support, bulls will probably try to deliver a new intraday high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12855 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/CHF broke support level 1.2340
3/14/2017 GBP/CHF broke support level 1.2340 Next sell target - 1.2120 GBP/CHF continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.2340 (former strong support level from January and February). The breakout of the support level 1.2340 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of December. The price earlier corrected up to test the broken price level 1.2340 – after which GBP/CHF reversed down sharply. GBP/CHF is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the next strong support level 1.2120 (low of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from January). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12856 |
Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
GBP/USD reached sell target 1.2200
3/14/2017 GBP/USD reached sell target 1.2200 Next sell target - 1.1000 GBP/USD continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which earlier reversed down from the resistance level 1.2200 (former support level and the sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 1.2200 led to the intensification of the bearish pressure on this currency pair. With the daily Momentum approaching yearly lows - GBP/USD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the key support level 1.2000 (low of the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) from January). https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articl...PM_(1_day).png More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12857 |
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