Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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Forex Analytics

Societe Generale: forecasts for majors
22 April 2015

Here are the fresh forecasts by the largest French bank:



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Societe Generale: forecasts for majors - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 23

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0775/1.0800 area created by the line connecting December and April highs. This together with concerns about Greece lets us think that the euro remains a sell. Support is at 1.0682, 1.0660 and 1.0640. Don’t miss the release of the euro area’s key manufacturing & services PMIs at 07:00-08:00 GMT. Slightly better readings are expected.

GBP/USD rose above last week’s highs testing 1.5080 to meet resistance provided by the daily Ichimoku and 55-day MA. Support is at 1.4860. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday were regarded as a bit hawkish. Technically the pound looks good in the short term and may rise up to 1.5160. Be cautious with longs though: sterling is going to have hard times ahead of approaching elections. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY recovered this week from support at 118.50, but met resistance in the 119.75 area (55-day MA) ahead of 120.35/50. Traders start to speculate about the Bank of Japan’s meeting on April 30, and the pair may retest 120.00. On Thursday watch US new home sales and unemployment claims.

AUD/USD is above 20-day MA (0.7680), but below the recent highs (0.7840). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation figures reduced expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut in May. On Thursday China will release HSBC flash manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

USD/CHF jumped as the SNB announced that pension funds can be subject to negative rates. The pair’s consolidating in the descending triangle, so one may set buy stop and sell stop pending orders near its borders.

More:
Forex trading plan for April 23 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 23

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.073, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 119.29 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4930 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9862 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9559 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.42

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0508, STOP LOSS 1.0299

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 23 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for Apr. 24

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x50T3MdjR5A

The greenback came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the bearish news flow from the US disappointed the market. Unemployment claims came out above the forecast (295K), while new home sales disappointed to the downside (only 481K). What is important, April manufacturing PMI disappointed to the downside (54.2), raising fears that slow growth is extending into Q2. We’ll watch US durable goods orders on Friday (forecast – upbeat).

EUR/USD trade remains volatile with the pair recovering to 1.0800 in the US opening despite the weaker-than-expected euro block’s PMIs. The pair is still unable to set a clear move. Next resistance lies at 1.0840 and 1.0890/0900, while strong support is seen at 1.0660. Watch April German Ifo business climate index on Friday. Euro group meeting also starts tomorrow – watch the headlines about Greece.

GBP/USD holds below the yesterday’s 1.5080 resistance as the March retail sales disappointed to the downside on Thursday (-0.5% vs. +0.4% expected). Cable is struggling to overcome the 55-day MA these days. We see the road open for a test of 1.5150 and 1.5200 in the coming sessions.

AUD/USD remains supported, but holds slightly below the 0.7800 mark. Resistance lies at 0.7820 and 0.7915/30. USD/JPY failed to overcome the 120.50 resistance on the wave of broad USD selloff. Support is seen at 119.00 and 118.50.


More:
Forex trading plan for Apr. 24 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 24

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0910 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0659

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4955 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.85 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7755, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7675

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _____________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 24 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 521m), 1.0900 (1.1bln)

GBP/USD: 1.5080/90 (GBP 420m), 1.5200 (264m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 738m), 120.00 (1.8bln)

USD/CAD: 1.2000 (USD 700m), 1.2035/50 (700m), 1.2165 (804m), 1.2200 (807m)

AUD/USD: 0.7780/90 (AUD 560m)

NZD/USD: 0.7575 (NZD 283m).

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 27

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0988, STOP LOSS 1.0783 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7793, TAKE PROFIT 0.7939, STOP LOSS 0.7703

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 181.80, STOP LOSS 179.60

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.72, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.48

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5088, TAKE PROFIT 1.5317, STOP LOSS 1.5013

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9590, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9640

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.45, TAKE PROFIT 130.79, STOP LOSS 127.85

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

__________________________________________________ __________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Danske Bank: trade signals for April 27 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Westpac: forecasts for FX majors
27 April 2015

Analysts at Westpac released their Forex forecasts:



More:
Westpac: forecasts for FX majors - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for April 28

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8xMbVWs80A

Demand for the US dollar revived on Monday in the global environment of uncertainty. We’ll watch the consumer confidence index on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). Market attention is glued to the Wednesday’s US calendar: there are advance Q1 GDP (12:30 GMT) and FOMC meeting (18:00 GMT) on the schedule. Rate hike expectations will likely fix on September after these releases, so the USD bullish correction is limited.

EUR/USD pulled down from the 1.0900 mark as the Greek voes continue to hurt market sentiment. Last week’s Eurogroup meeting failed to bring any progress; negotiations continue. Tomorrow there are no releases on the agenda, while on Wednesday Germany will release its April CPI (forecast: -0.1% vs. 0.5% in March). Support is seen at 1.0710 and 1.0660.

GBP/USD retraced from the 1.5150/5200 resistance area (100-day MA, trend line). Break above 1.5200 could open the way to the 1.5500 area, but the direction will get clear after the UK and US Q1 GDP releases and the Fed. UK is scheduled to release its preliminary Q1 GDP tomorrow (forecast: +0.5% vs. +0.6% in Q4).

USD/JPY found buying interest at 118.80 and climbed above 119.00 on Monday. Watch Japanese retail sales late on Monday (22:50 GMT). The indicator is expected to have plummeted by more than 7% in March, so we could see more JPY weakness. Another push to 120.00 or 120.50 is expected. By the way, Fitch rating agency downgraded Japan's credit rating from A+ to A over the weekend.

AUD/USD is trying to hold above 0.7800. Resistance lies in the 0.7840 (April highs) and at 0.7890 (100-day MA), while support – at 0.7760, 0.7680 and 0.7640/25. RBA governor Stevens will deliver a speech at 22:40 GMT on Monday.

More:
Trading plan for April 28 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
28 April 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0795/1.0800 (EUR 670m), 1.0885 (747m), 1.0900 (400m)

GBP/USD: 1.5150 (GBP 257m), 1.5185 (235m), 1.5250 (1.2bln)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 530m), 120.00 (610m)

USD/CAD: 1.2250 (USD 518m)

AUD/USD: 0.7790/0.7800 (AUD 1bln), 0.7830 (300m)

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 565m)

EUR/GBP: 0.7190 (EUR 257m), 0.7345 (600M)

EUR/JPY: 130.70 (EUR 330m)

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: signals for April 28

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0988 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0783 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9555, TAKE PROFIT 0.9718, STOP LOSS 0.9485

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7793, TAKE PROFIT 0.7939, STOP LOSS 0.7703

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2210 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 181.80, STOP LOSS 179.60

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: Look to BUY

EUR/JPY: BUY at 129.20, TAKE PROFIT 130.79, STOP LOSS 128.68

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

__________________________________________________ __________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: signals for April 28 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 29

Wednesday will be an intense day: markets will likely be consolidative ahead of the US releases which will create strong volatility during the American session. The US will release Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT (forecast: +1.0%), and the Federal Reserve will publish its statement at 18:00 GMT. As the prospects of the US currency look very uncertain, other currencies feel rather well versus the greenback. We don’t expect major changes in the Fed’s policy and think that the impact on the US dollar will be moderately negative.

EUR/USD has reached 1.0950. The pair was also driven by some hopes for a closer deal between Greece and its creditors as the Greek negotiating team was reshuffled so that the influence of an aggressive finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has diminished. The pair is trying to overcome the 55-day MA at 1.0930. Daily close above this level will be a bullish signal. Support is at 1.0850 and 1.0786. Resistance is at 1.0995, 1.1050 and 1.1166 (top of the daily Ichimoku).

GBP/USD has reached 1.5300 despite the fact that British data showed weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 (only 0.3% vs. 0.6% in the previous quarter). Support is at 1.5177 (100-day MA) and 1.5100. Resistance is at 1.5350 ahead of 1.5500. It seems that the pound has some upside potential before the reversal down.

USD/JPY is little changed below 119.25 (55-day MA) and above Monday’s low at 118.77. As long as the pair remains above 118.30, the outlook remains bullish warranting an increase to resistance at 119.70. Still, it may be difficult for the US dollar to hold ground if American GDP disappoints. There’s no further support until 117.20.

AUD/USD reached 0.7970 making a break though to the upside. A close above here will strengthen the case for the advance to 0.8030 and then to 0.8250. NZD/USD returned to 0.7700. Traders await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at 21:00 GMT on Wednesday. If the RBNZ keeps rates on hold, as we expect, the pair may rise to 0.7800. There will be an obstacle at 0.7740.

More:
Forex trading plan for April 29 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 29

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9555, TAKE PROFIT 0.9718, STOP LOSS 0.9485

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2138 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 183.15, STOP LOSS 180.60

Open positions:

EUR/USD: BUY AT 1.0935, TAKE PROFIT 1.1052, STOP LOSS 1.0855

GBP/USD: BUY AT 1.5265, TAKE PROFIT 1.5529, STOP LOSS 1.5165

AUD/USD: BUY AT 0.7910, TAKE PROFIT 0.8137, STOP LOSS 0.7835

EUR/JPY: BUY AT 130.10 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 131.87, STOP LOSS 129.30

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

NZD/USD: BUY AT 0.7670 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 0.7890, STOP LOSS 0.7605

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 29 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 30

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2138 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0580 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0379

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.45

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1039, TAKE PROFIT 1.1245, STOP LOSS 1.0959

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5355, TAKE PROFIT 1.5570, STOP LOSS 1.5288

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9259, STOP LOSS 0.9516

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7940, TAKE PROFIT 0.8235, STOP LOSS 0.7833

EUR/JPY: BUY at 131.55, TAKE PROFIT 134.60, STOP LOSS 130.26

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 30 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: breakthrough is coming

By Elizaveta Belugina

On Monday USD/JPY fell below the 100-day MA and spent the rest of the week below this line. Although the bulls probably want to see some moves up, the pair lacks drivers for growth. The tone of the US Federal Reserve was very balanced. The markets worry about the recent stream of weak data and don’t expect the rate hike in June. The Bank of Japan has also left its policy unchanged refraining from additional monetary stimulus. Although Japanese regulator cut inflation forecast for this fiscal year, it wasn’t by much. As a result, nothing provoked big moves of the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MF0PUkglBt4

USD/JPY is trapped between 119.30 and 118.50. Technically we see several patterns on the chart: 2 descending triangles – one smaller with resistance drawn through April highs and one bigger with resistance connecting March and April maximums. As for support area, it’s the same for 2: in the 118.50/30 area. The fall below this zone will cause a decline to 117.20/00 – the bottom of the 2-months descending channel and previous lows. Resistance is at 119.75 and 120.00.

Japanese economic calendar is almost empty. The nation’s banks will be closed in the first 3 days of the week because of the various holidays. On Thursday there will be some comments from the Bank of Japan, but the real market mover will be the US data releases, especially labor market figures on Wednesday and Friday.

More:
USD/JPY: breakthrough is coming - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: how far can the bulls go?

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNnEFWyYbU4

British pound benefitted from the broad-based USD weakness last week. GBP/USD surged by more than 400 pips, approaching the 1.5500 resistance – this is the February high. There are a lot of sell-orders clustered in this area, so we expect a pullback to follow in the coming days. Daily RSI confirms that the market has already become overbought. Support is seen at 1.5200 and 1.5080.

It's interesting that the pound was massively bought despite the mixed bag of data coming out. US economy rose by only 0.3% in Q1, while retail sales dropped by 0.5% in March. Parliamentary election on May 7 will likely become a good fundamental reason to sell the cable. According to the most recent surveys, Conservative party pushed a bit forward, but the overweight remains small and unstable. Next week we’ll also watch the UK April PMI indices.

More:GBP/USD: how far can the bulls go? - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: will growth continue?

By Elizaveta Belugina

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uLN8t_rZqo

EUR/USD showed another week of growth rising above 1.1200. The euro went above the late March – early April highs and closed above January low at 1.1097 on Wednesday.

The pair got strength from the general weakness of the US dollar. In addition, the single currency was driven up by the rising German bund yields as the fears of deflation is the euro area receded. Moreover, the prospects of Greece getting bailout money improved. The nation reshuffled its negotiating team decreasing the role of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. As you might remember, Varoufakis failed to achieve progress in the talks with the European creditors. Greek government hopes that now when Varoufakis is pushed aside, lenders will be more compliant.

The next meeting of the Euro group will take place on May 11. Until then major developments of the Greek situation are unlikely, though occasional comments from various officials will stir the euro. The first week of May will be rather light in terms of economic data from the euro area. Pay some attention to the release of the EU economic forecasts on Tuesday.

The area of 1.1215/50 offers rather strong resistance. However, market participants will be very cautious with selling the single currency. Next target on the upside is the 100-day MA at 1.1311. EUR/USD is expected to find strong support at 1.1100 and 1.1000. We may see some consolidation between 1.12 and 1.10.

More:
EUR/USD: will growth continue? - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

USD/SGD: buy target – 1.3200
4 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

USD/SGD completed intermediate ABC correction (2)
Next buy target – 1.3200
USD/SGD recently reversed up sharply from the strong support zone lying between the support level 1.3200 (former resistance which reversed the pair in last December, as you can see from the daily USD/SGD chart below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous extended upward impulse from August of 2014. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the preceding sharp intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of March.

USD/SGD is likely to rise further – in line with the strong uptrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next buy target at 1.3390. Strong support remains at 1.3200.


More:
USD/SGD: buy target ? 1.3200 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7700
4 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-AUD/USD reached buy target 0.8000
-Next sell target - 0.7700

AUD/USD recently reversed down sharply after the pair reached the round resistance level 0.8000, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near 0.8000 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the middle of January (as you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below).

The downward reversal from 0.8000 created the strong Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Evening Star Doji – thereby completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (4). AUD/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at 0.7700.


More:
AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7700 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 5

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1160, TAKE PROFIT 1.1389, STOP LOSS 1.1048

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.84 (revised), STOP LOSS 119.20 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9216 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9516

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0604 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0379

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7340, TAKE PROFIT 0.7488, STOP LOSS 0.7295

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7392 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7685

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: BUY at 181.35, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 180.60

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5105, TAKE PROFIT 1.5304, STOP LOSS 1.5049

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for May 5 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

RBA cut benchmark rate
5 May 2015

EUR/USD eased down to the 1.1100 area after it met resistance at 1.1290 on Friday (100-day MA). The pair finds support at the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1066.

GBP/USD is trying to hold above 1.5100 after it fell last week from highs in the 1.5500 area. The pound is under pressure ahead of the UK election which will take place on Thursday. The latest opinion polls continue to put the Conservative and Labour parties neck and neck, so there’s a very strong risk of a hung parliament.

USD/JPY is trying to hold above 120.00. US Treasury yields rose to 7-week high. It’s a bank holiday in Japan. Traders are waiting for the release of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

AUD/USD is trading on the upside in the 0.7870 area. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate to 2.0%. Still, such decision was widely expected, so after the initial dip traders took profit on short positions closing them.

More:
RBA cut benchmark rate - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 6

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNm07-mdjR4

Market players expect improvement in the US labor market data due on Wednesday and Friday. This should keep the greenback supported, though to see big moves up of the American currency we’ll still need to see more positive news from the United States. Note that if NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) disappoint on Friday, the US dollar will resume declining as the market would see bad data as the sign that weak economic effects are less transitory than the Fed said at its meeting last week. In addition, on Wednesday don’t miss the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen at 13:15 GMT.

EUR/USD retraced 38.2% of the December/March decline and met resistance at the 100-day MA just below 1.13. The pair finds support at the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.1066. Nearby there’s also support of March/April highs in the 1.1050/35 zone.

GBP/USD is trading just above 1.5100 supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud (1.5093) and 55-day MA (1.5045). Next support is at 1.4970. The upside will remain limited ahead of the UK election on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.5155 (100-day MA). Britain’s construction P
USD/JPY returned above the 55-day MA and the psychological level of 120.00 as well as above the resistance line connecting March and April highs. This makes the bulls stronger. Resistance is at 120.84 ahead of 121.50. Support is at 119.80 and 119.30.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7918 as traders covered short positions after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to the record low of 2%. Aussie faces resistance provided by the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud (0.7910). Next resistance is at 0.7950/75. Australia will release retail sales data on Wednesday.

More:
Forex trading plan for May 6 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
6 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 546m), 1.1020/30 (892m), 1.1100 (283m), 1.1150/60 (800m);

GBP/USD: 1.5000 (GBP 216m), 1.5100 (209m), 1.5170 (175m);

USD/JPY: 120.50 (USD 653m), 121.00 (696m);

AUD/USD: 0.7800 AUD (200m), 0.7900 (405m).

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 6

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1160, TAKE PROFIT 1.1389, STOP LOSS 1.1048

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 121.41 (revised), STOP LOSS 119.20 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5105, TAKE PROFIT 1.5304, STOP LOSS 1.5086 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9196 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9448 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7340, TAKE PROFIT 0.7488, STOP LOSS 0.7295

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.15, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.30

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7392 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7585 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.94, STOP LOSS 133.05

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ _________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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Danske Bank: trade signals for May 6 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 7

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j41P2zFoe5c

The US Dollar came under bearish pressure on Wednesday – preliminary April NFP from ADP came well below the forecast (159K versus 199K expected). What’s more, the March reading has been revised to the downside to 175K. Market expectations for the Friday’s NFP release are turning more and more negative, weighting on the greenback. We’ll watch the unemployment claims figure on Thursday (forecast – slight increase).

North-American currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week. EUR/USD was seen testing the May 1 high of 1.1290 on Wednesday. There is a double bottom pattern with a neckline at 1.1050 being formed. We expect the correction to extend towards the 1.1530 resistance this week. Watch the German factory orders in the euro zone tomorrow.

UK parliamentary elections are taking place on Thursday, May 7. Political uncertainty is expected to increase after the election, as the government will have to form a coalition. That’s why the upside in GBP/USD will be limited. A weekly candle with a long upper shadow also is a bearish signal. Support - 1.5080, 1.5000 and 1.4950. Break lower would open the way for a new wave of selling.

AUD/USD pushed above 0.8000. Watch out the resistance in the 0.8070 area. Australia will release labor market data tonight – forecasts are downbeat.

USD/JPY came back under bearish pressure, failing to overcome 120.50. We target the triangle bottom at 118.50 in the coming days.

More:
Trading plan for May 7 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
7 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

GBP/USD: 1.5000 (GBP 226m), 1.5150 (150m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 650m), 120.50/60 (650m)

USD/CAD: 1.1950 (USD 482m)

AUD/USD: 0.7890 (AUD 349m), 0.7900 (302m)

NZD/USD: 0.7525 (NZD 442m)

EUR/GBP: 0.7250/65 (EUR 210m)

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 7

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1160, TAKE PROFIT 1.1450 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1160 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 121.41 (revised), STOP LOSS 119.20 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5105, TAKE PROFIT 1.5304, STOP LOSS 1.5145 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9046 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9415 (revised)

AUD/USD:Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8182, STOP LOSS 0.7850

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7340, TAKE PROFIT 0.7488, STOP LOSS 0.7295

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 182.15, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.30

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7392, STOP LOSS 0.7585

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.85 FOR 136.70; STOP AT 134.04

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2085 FOR 1.1803; STOP AT 1.2140

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________ ________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for May 7 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmfUrCM6WtQ

The market’s attitude towards the US dollar has dramatically deteriorated in comparison with the hopes seen at the beginning of the week. ADP employment report missed the forecast, especially taking into account the fact that the previous reading was revised to the downside. The unemployment claims released on Thursday, however, came lower than expected (265K vs. 277K) – this is the main source of hope for the USD bulls ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. NFP is expected to show gain of 227K jobs vs. 126K in March. The unemployment rater is expected to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%.

Friday promises a very volatile trading. We’ll see bigger market reaction if NFP disappoints than if it comes at a good level. Our main scenario is to prepare for a USD-negative scenario.

EUR/USD reached 1.1390 where it met some resistance. The euro looks overbought. Support is at 1.1250 (100-day MA) and 1.1150. If US NFP is below forecast, the pair may jump to 1.1500/35.

GBP/USD is awaiting the results of the UK election: the exit polls figures will be available around 21:00 GMT. Conservatives ahead will be GBP-positive, while Labourists ahead will be GBP-negative. Watch support at 1.5100 and resistance at 1.5270. A break of one of these levels may provoke a move either to 1.4900 or 1.5550.

USD/JPY is slowly declining for the fourth day in a row. Support is at 118.70/50. Resistance is at 120.00 and 120.50. Below the latter level the bears will continue to dominate. A miss in NFP will make the pair challenge 118.50/30.

AUD/USD has lost some momentum as it failed to settle above 0.8000 as Australian labor market data was weaker than forecasts. Resistance is at 0.8030. Support is at 0.7900, 0.7840 and 0.7760. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy statement on Friday morning. Buying on the dips may prove to be a right strategy.

More:
Forex trading plan for May 8 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
8 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 522m), 1.1200 (1.5bln), 1.1295 (563m), 1.1345/50 (680m)

GBP/USD: 1.4900 (GBP 359m), 1.5000 (190m), 1.5100 (285m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 1.25bln), 120.00 (927m), 120.50 (1bln), 121.25 (478m)

USD/CAD: 1.2100 (745m), 1.2300 (475m)

AUD/USD: 0.7800 (592m), 0.7925 (393m), 0.8015 (204m)

AUD/NZD: 1.0600 (312m)

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 8

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1450, STOP LOSS 1.1199

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9046, STOP LOSS 0.9284

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8182, STOP LOSS 0.7850

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 134.04

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0236, STOP LOSS 1.0407

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7333, STOP LOSS 0.7585 (revised)

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.50, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.03

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.95, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.70

GBP/USD: Look to BUY at 1.5345/40

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for May 8 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: agenda for May 11-15

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD rose to 1.1390 supported by the rising German bund yields before its advance paused as US labor market data came out better than some had feared.

Let’s see what the coming week is preparing for EUR/USD. On Monday, May 11, the euro area’s finance ministers will once again meet to discuss the Greek question. Although in April this date was referred to as the deadline for making decision about granting Greece the final 7.2-billion euro tranche of the bailout money, the recent comments from the European authorities show that a deal between the troubled nations and its creditors remains unlikely at this point.

In the past week Greece has managed to make a 200-million-euro interest payment to the International Monetary Fund. However, paying another 750-million-euro to the IMF on Tuesday, May 12, may be very difficult. On Friday, May 15, Greece faces a T-bill redemption for 1.4 billion euro – this is not a problem, because the nation can just rollover such debt. The payment to the IMF is trickier: if there’s no deal at the Eurogroup the day before, Greece will have to choose between paying the IMF and paying public sector wages and pensions. All this creates negative risks for the euro.

On Wednesday watch the releases of the euro zone’s flash Q1 GDP data. All in all, there’s a gradual improvement in European economic fundamentals and this should be reflected in the release and support the euro.

A close below May 1 high at 1.1290 and below the 100-day MA at 1.1240 will be a negative factor. Support is at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.0905. This support looks strong. A close above these levels will open the way to 1.1515/30 (50% Fibo of the December-March decline, February high), although the Greek uncertainty that will return to focus will make the ascent of th single currency more difficult.

More:
EUR/USD: agenda for May 11-15 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: sell target - 88.00
11 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY broke support level 89.00
-Next sell target - 88.00

NZD/JPY continues to fall inside the second minor corrective wave (ii) – which started earlier last month, when the pair reversed down sharply from the strong resistance level 92.00 which has been reversing the price from March and which was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. After reaching this buy target the pair reversed down strongly breaking through the support trendline from the start of February coinciding with the round support level 90.00.

The pair started this week by breaking the next support level 89.00 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from February). NZD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target 88.00 (50% Fibonacci Correction of the aforementioned upward impulse).



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NZD/JPY: sell target - 88.00 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell target – 0.7200
11 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP reversed from resistance area
-Next sell target – 0.7200

EUR/GBP recently reversed down sharply from the combined resistance area lying between the resistance levels 0.7430 and 0.7370 (this resistance level earlier reversed the previous waves (A) and B in March and April, as you can see below). This resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from March, 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from December and by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

EUR/GBP reversed down from the aforementioned resistance zone with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing (completing the previous primary correction ②). EUR/GBP is likely to fall to the next sell target 0.7200.


More:
EUR/GBP: sell target ? 0.7200 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 12

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.67, STOP LOSS 119.03

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8185, STOP LOSS 0.7850

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 189.71, STOP LOSS 184.37 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7530

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1108, TAKE PROFIT 1.1289, STOP LOSS 1.1050

EUR/JPY: BUY at 133.55, TAKE PROFIT 135.38, STOP LOSS 133.08

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5523, TAKE PROFIT 1.5682, STOP LOSS 1.5460

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9394, TAKE PROFIT 0.9203, STOP LOSS 0.9450

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for May 12 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy target – 189.600
12 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY broke resistance level 184.70
-Next buy target – 189.600

GBP/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few weeks – following the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 180.00 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the previous minor impulse wave (i) – which then broke the daily Triangle from last October. This impulse wave then reversed down from the strong resistance level 184.70 – starting the next minor correction (ii) which stopped at the upper trendline of the aforementioned, recently broken Triangle. The subsequent impulse wave (iii) form this trendline broke the resistance level 184.70.

With the daily Momentum recently reaching new yearly highs, GBP/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 189.600 (top of previous wave A).


More:
GBP/JPY: buy target ? 189.600 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: buy target - 1.5800
12 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/USD reached buy target 1.5520
-Next buy target - 1.5800

GBP/USD yesterday broke sharply above the strong resistance level 1.5520 (the top of the previous intermediate correction (4), which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price earlier reversed down from this price level to the support zone lying between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp intermediate corrective wave (A) and the former resistance trendline of the wide extended daily down channel form last year (acting as support now after it was broken).

The active (C)-wave which started from the aforementioned support zone recently broke the resistance level 1.5520. GBP/USD is set to rise further toward the next buy target 1.5800 (upper boundary of the previous sideways price range from December).


More:
GBP/USD: buy target - 1.5800 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 13

Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m35rLz-xD4U

The US dollar got some support from the April labor market data released on Friday (US NFP came at 223K, while unemployment declined to 5.4%). However, it is not enough to reverse the current bearish USD trend. The market will watch the April retail sales data on Wednesday.

EUR/USD recovered and is trying to hold above 100-day MA at 1.1218. The euro is supported by the rising German bund yields and some stop levels which were hit above 1.1200. Strong support is at 1.1050. On Wednesday don’t miss the euro zone’s flash Q1 GDP data, the forecasts are positive. Resistance is at 1.1290 (May 1 high) and 1.1390 (May 7 high). The single currency has potential for a bit higher, but concerns about Greece will limit the upside.

GBP/USD extends the upside following the parliamentary election. The pair tested the levels above 1.5700 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the UK labor market figures and the BOE quarterly inflation report. Resistance is seen at 1,5780 (Dec. 14 high) and 1,5890 (50% Fibonacci).

More:
Trading plan for May 13 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 13

Open positions:*

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.25, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.09

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 185.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7470 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.67, STOP LOSS 119.23

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5655, TAKE PROFIT 1.5945, STOP LOSS 1.5550

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8185, STOP LOSS 0.7876 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1205, TAKE PROFIT 1.1392, STOP LOSS 1.1129

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9320, TAKE PROFIT 0.9072, STOP LOSS 0.9415

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2044, TAKE PROFIT 1.1803, STOP LOSS 1.2117

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________ ________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for May 13 - Forex Analytics

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 14

EUR/USD rose above 1.1300. Initially the single currency was affected by a bit lower than expected euro area’s economic growth in Q1 (0.4% vs. forecast of 0.5%) and a decline in the region’s industrial production, but then the US released weak retail sales figures (growth slowed down from 1.1% to 0%) which hurt the greenback. This is the evidence that the US economy is doing badly in the second quarter. On Thursday watch American PPI and unemployment claims. In France and Germany banks will be closed for a holiday. Resistance is at 1.1390, 1.1470 and 1.1500. Support is at 1.1160 and 1.1100.

GBP/USD remains supported on Wednesday even despite the dovish inflation report. The BOE lowered its 2015-2016 growth forecast and confirmed that inflation will stay subdued before returning to the target in 2 years. BOE’s forecasts are based on gradual rate hikes, beginning from mid-2016. As a result, expectations for a rate hike in 2015 decreased today. Note that the labor market data reflected improvement. As for the technicals, we remain bullish for GBP/USD above 1.5500 and target 1.5790 in the coming sessions. Post-election optimism and USD-disappointment will likely drive the pair up.

USD/JPY slid to 119.00 and may test lower levels at 118.50/30 and 118.00. Resistance is at 119.80. AUD/USD jumped up to 0.8100 on the expectations on more easing in China and bad news from the US. Aussie has a chance to strengthen to 0.8200/40. Support is at 0.8030 and 0.8000.

More:
Trading plan for May 14 - Forex Analytics

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
14 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1300 (EUR 478m);

GBP/USD: 1.5570 (GBP 202m);

USD/JPY: 119.10 (USD 900m), 119.50 (500m), 120.00 (2.7bln);

AUD/USD: 0.8030 (AUD 200m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7255 (EUR 200m), 0.7290 (405m).

More:
Key option levels - Forex Analytics