Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Oct. 16)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Oct. 16)

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 17

EUR/USD spiked down towards $1.2700, but then recovered to $1.2750 area. This time data from the US showed solid growth. The bearish pressure will lift only if the pair rises above $1.2790 (Oct. 9 high). Note that the market is still in doubts about the American economy and the Fed’s policy. The odds are that euro once again tests $1.2700 and $1.2685/60. We’ll consider selling on recoveries to $1.2790. Tomorrow watch the German Bundesbank President Weidmann speech and the US figures, as well as Yellen’s speech.

GBP/USD is still seeking a direction: the price hit a new daily low at 1.5940, but recovered back towards 1.6000 rather quickly. The price could jump towards 1.6150 on the new dovish signals from US, but the medium term picture still remains bearish. Support lies at 1.5950, 1.5900 and 1.5870. There are no releases in Britain scheduled for tomorrow. Next week will be much more eventful in the UK, so we’ll be waiting for clearer signals.

USD/JPY recovered towards the 106.00 mark on Wednesday following the yesterday’s dip to 105.10. However, in the current conditions we expect the upside to be capped by 106.80. The next bearish target lies at 104.50.

AUD/USD corrected down to the lower border of the channel in the area of $0.8685, and is trying to recover. There will be no news in Australia, so this time the pair’s recovery may be limited. Watch for resistance at $0.8770, $0.8815 and $0.8850. Support is at $0.8700 and $0.8675.

Trading plan for Oct. 17 - YouTube

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 17

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_aSBzxIII

Risk sentiment: Asian shares were off session lows but still under pressure as concerns about world economic growth sent US Treasury yields down and Japanese stocks tumbling. Chinese bank lending data was much better than expected, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China’s foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested speculative money outflows.

EUR: Yesterday’s speech of Mario Draghi gave little hints about the ECB’s plans. Watch final CPI at 09:00 GMT (priced in).

USD: More data later today: Unemployment Claims (12:30 GMT), Industrial Production (13:15 GMT), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT).

GBP/USD had a volatile US session, stays in the $1.5880/6060 range.

USD/JPY holds above 105.60 following the yesterday’s dip.

NZD/USD jumped to $0.7990 on Global Dairy Trade auction results: prices up by 1.4%. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: 58.1 vs. 57.0 expected.

Oil found some support on a weaker dollar.

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Oct. 16)

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Oct. 16)

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 20: MARKET REVIEW

Pessimism over the economy was tempered and risk sentiment improved.

USD: San Francisco Fed President Williams and Boston President Eric Rosengren said that the Fed should end QE as planned at this month.

EUR/USD: on the upside in the area of $1.2760, but below last week’s high at $1.2886.

GBP/USD trades unchanged at $1.6100.

USD/JPY gapped higher at 107.20, Nikkei up as GPIF will lift ratio of domestic stocks to about 25%.

AUD/USD up to $0.8787: China announced its intention to inject $33B of 3-month loans into banks.

NZD/USD up by 40 pips to $0.7960.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB-uYHbNQic

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 20: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 20: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2550 (large), $1.2580, $1.2680 (large), $1.2700, $1.2725 (large), $1.2750/55 (large), $1.2775 (large), $1.2790/1.2800 (large), $1.2850 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6000 (large), $1.6190/1.6200 (large);

USD/JPY: 105.50 (large), 106.25 (large), 106.75 (large), 107.20 (large), 107.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1135, 1.1260, 1.1280;

AUD/USD: $0.8600 (large), $0.8700, $0.8800 (large), $0.8850 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7900, $0.7935, $0.7950 (large), $0.8000 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7915, 0.8040;

EUR/JPY: 136.00 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 20: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 21

EUR/USD lacked momentum on Monday. Resistance area is at $1.2830/50. Support is at $1.2730, $1.2700 and $1.2680. Longs from $1.2700 are possible, though cautious. Shorts are advised above $1.2900. No data from the euro area tomorrow, only the evening existing home sales in the US, so risk sentiment will matter. The general mood seems to be EUR-negative.

GBP/USD edged above the $1.6100 mark on Monday, hitting fresh 10-day highs as we write. Great Britain is scheduled to release public sector net borrowing data on Tuesday – budget deficit is projected to contract. The data could render more support for the currency. Break above $1.6150 would open the way towards the next short-term targets at $1.6200 and $1.6225. We still expect the $1.6225 mark to cap the upside – this is the long-term trend resistance line and the Oct. 9 high.

USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, but failed to sustain gains and fell back below the 107 mark. The move confirms that the 107.50 area remains strongly resistive for now. It makes sense to reenter shorts on a break below 106.60 with an initial target of 105.00 yen.

AUD/USD is trading in a broad sideways trend with support at $0.8750, $0.8725 and $0.8685. Resistance is at $0.8815/20, $0.8860 and $0.8900. Selling around the latter is a good strategy. Upcoming data releases should bring more volatility: watch the RBA meeting minutes release and Chinese data early on Tuesday.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 21

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 21: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment still hasn’t sustainably improved. Japanese Nikkei declined.

AUD/USD: edged up on better than expected China’s Q3 GDP growth (7.3% vs. 7.2%), though the reading came lower than in the previous quarter. Chinese industrial production rose by 8.0% vs. 7.5% expected. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.2825.

GBP/USD edged higher to $1.6180, awaits public sector net borrowing at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY fell to 106.20 in Asia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M1fZhO_yD8

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 21: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 21: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600/05 (large), $1.2655 (large), $1.2685 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2750 (large), $1.2800 (large);

USD/JPY: 107.00 (large), 107.50 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large), 1.1250;

AUD/USD: 0.8650;

NZD/USD: 0.8105 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 21: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 22

EUR/USD was rejected by resistance in the $1.2830/50 area. Support is in the $1.2730/15 zone. Tomorrow once again there won’t be important data releases in the euro area. Note though that soon the picture will become more interesting. The market will probably start worrying about the region’s PMIs due on Thursday. Another source of concerns may be the results of the bank stress tests due on Sunday. We still recommend selling on the increases up to $1.2950/3000. The support of the channel lies at $1.2700/$1.2685. The US will release inflation figures on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD failed to sustain growth on Tuesday as UK public deficit came above the forecast. The upside remains limited by the $1.6180/6200 resistance area ahead of the BOE monetary minutes release on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. We expect the dove-hawk voting to remain unchanged at 7-2. If true, the cable will likely resume the decline with an initial target of $1.6040.

USD/JPY pushed lower in Asia, but met buying interest at 106 yen. To confirm a local low at the 105 mark the markets need to break above 107.30, but the 107 figure remains a strong barrier these days. USD/JPY is a risky trade right now, so we are waiting for clearer signals. Don’t miss the Japanese trade balance on Tuesday.

On Wednesday there will be a lot of news from Canada – retail sales at 12:30 GMT and the Bank of Canada’s meeting & press conference & governor’s speech at 14:00, 15:15 and 19:30 GMT respectively. USD/CAD is at the lower edge of the rising channel. A break below 1.1200 can cause a fall to 1.1100. Divergence at the daily chart points at the possibility of a break lower if the BOC sounds less dovish.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 22

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 22: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

Risk sentiment improved, Asian shares rose.

EUR/USD: below $1.2730 ahead of the release of the euro area’s PMIs on Thursday. The ECB bought covered bonds for a second day and Reuters reported the central bank is considering corporate-debt purchases.

GBP/USD consolidates at $1.6110, capped at $1.6185. MPC meeting minutes will be published at 8:30 GMT. MPC Member Weale speaks at 19:00 GMT.

AUD/USD: returned to the levels just below $0.8800 after spiking down, Australian data showed annual consumer-price gains slowed in line with economists’ forecasts. NZD/USD holds below $0.8000.

USD/JPY bounced from 106.80 back above 107.00.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hz7pDBT5e8

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 22: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 22: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2650 (large), $1.2665 (large), $1.2675, $1.2680 (large), $1.2685, $1.2750, $1.2800 (large), $1.2840 (large);

USD/JPY: 106.10 (large), 106.15/20 (large), 107.50;

USD/CAD: 1.1200, 1.1300 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8700 (large), $0.8790/0.8800 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.7980 (large)

EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (large), 0.7850;

EUR/JPY: 135.20 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 22: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 23

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipxjB3CJi7U

We have entered the market selling EUR/USD at $1.2685 (100-period MA on H4). Stop is at $1.2735, take profit 1 is at $1.2625, take profit 2 is at $1.2585. The pair has eroded support of the corrective upside channel, but the odds are of sideways trading above October lows. US inflation increased in Sep. – a USD-bullish factor. The market is now waiting for the euro zone’s PMIs on Thursday. Data will likely show that the deterioration in the region’s economic activity. We are also thinking about USD/CHF longs from 0.9485 with target at 0.9560 and stop loss below 0.9455.

Our forecast for GBP/USD proved to be right: the cable bounced back from the $1.6200/6185 area and touched $1.6010 in Europe. The market was disappointed as the BOE meeting minutes showed no changes in voting: 7 members out of 9 stay on the dovish side. The hawkish MPC member Wale is scheduled to speak at 19:00 GMT, but the upside will likely be limited by the round $1.6100 figure. A daily close below $1.6050 would open the way to $1.5950 and $1.5870. On Thursday UK is scheduled to release retail sales data (forecast – negative).

USD/JPY holds above the 107 mark. However, the 107.50/108.00 area remains strongly resistive for now and we have no reasons to expect a break higher in the near term. Support lies at 106.50 and 106.20. AUD/USD looks too risky to trade. We await fresh signals.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 23

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 23: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw2M3jOnGWY

Risk sentiment: subdued with concerns about global growth, affected by falling oil prices and a shooting incident at the Canadian parliament.

EUR/USD: below $1.2650 ahead of the euro area’s PMIs (07:00-08:00 GMT).

AUD/USD: edged down to $0.8750. Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI was a bit higher in October, but that not enough to encourage the market.

NZD/USD plummeted to $0.7850 on lower rate hike expectations. NZ CPI fell from 1.6% in Q2 to 0.1% y/y in Q3.

GBP/USD consolidates at $1.6060, awaits retail sales data at 8:30 GMT.

USD/JPY capped at 107.30.

USD/CAD remains above 1.1200 as Canada’s retail sales unexpectedly fell. The Bank of Canada left keep its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, and indicated that the Canadian economy would grow 2.5% in 2015 and would slow down to 2% by the end of 2016.

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 23: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 23: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2650 (large), $1.2695/1.2700 (large), $1.2720/25 (large), $1.2750 (large);

USD/JPY: 106.75 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.35 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9375 (large), 0.9475 (large), 0.9700 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.8700 (large), $0.8800 (large), $0.8835 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7800 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 23: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 24

EUR/USD hit our first target at $1.2625. Better than expected euro zone PMIs supported the pair, but there’s potential for lower euro as the ECB will release the bank stress tests results on Sunday. Resistance is at $1.2700 and $1.2740. Downside targets lie at $1.2605. A break lower will lead the pair to $1.2585 and level in the $1.2500 area. On Friday watch German GfK consumer climate and US new home sales.

GBP/USD continues forming a local high at $1.6185: the pair tested the 1.6000 mark in Europe as UK retail sales figures came out much worse than expected. Retail sales fell by 0.3% in September after growing by 0.4% in August. The major risk event on Friday is the Q3 GDP release. Economic growth is forecasted to slow down from 0.9% in Q2 to 0.7% in Q3.

USD/JPY pushed higher towards the 108.00 mark after the upbeat US jobless claims report. For now this mark acts as a resistance – this is 61.8% Fibonacci from the recent decline. The price broke above the important 107.50/30 resistance, but we would like to see a daily close above this level to confirm the strength of the buyers.

We see a congestion of candles on the daily AUD/USD chart. It resembles a diamond pattern, but trading a breakout in this pair right now is risky.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 24

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 27: MARKET REVIEW

Risk sentiment’s slightly upbeat after positive US housing data and Britain’s GDP published at the end of the last week. AUD/USD is a bit on the upside, in the $0.8800 zone.

EUR/USD edged up to the $1.2700 area. The ECB’s stress tests turned out to be better than expected. According to the ECB, most of the region’s top lenders which failed the health checks at the end of last year have since repaired their finances.

GBP/USD consolidates around $1.6100. CBI Realized Sales come out at 11:00 GMT. MPC member Shafik speaks in the evening.

USD/JPY back below 108.00 yen despite the positive market sentiment.

NZD/USD trades above $0.7850 after the last week’s selloff.

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 27: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 27: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2650 (large), $1.2680/90 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2720 (large), $1.2730 (large), $1.2745/50 (large);

USD/JPY: 107.20 (large), 107.50 (large), 108.00 (large), 108.25;

AUD/USD: $0.8770 (large), $0.8850 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1225;

NZD/USD: $0.7800 (large), $0.8050 (large);

EUR/JPY: 137.00 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 27: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CdD6OGAy4E

EUR/USD is trying to overcome $1.2700. The results of the European banks stress tests were a bit better than expected, but data from both the euro area and the US on Monday came lower and outbalanced each other. Tomorrow market players will watch whether the US durable good orders and consumer confidence pick up. We see a kind of a short-term rising channel on the chart since Oct. 23. Resistance is at $1.2740, $1.2770, $1.2790 and $1.2850. Support is at $1.2675 and $1.2625.

Improved risk sentiment may pull AUD/USD higher, though it might be difficult for the pair to get outside of consolidative mood before we hear from the Fed on Wednesday.

GBP/USD has recovered to $1.6150 on Monday. UK CBI Realized Sales came out well above the forecast, rendering support to the pound. The upside remains capped by $1.6180 for now; next levels above the price are $1.6200 and $1.6220/30. Support is seen at $1.6000 and $1.5950. Dovish MPC member Shafik will deliver a speech at 18:30 GMT on Monday, while on Tuesday evening member Cunliffe is scheduled to speak.

USD/JPY trades under bearish pressure on Monday, but holds above the 107.50 support as we write. Last week’s close above the 108 mark was a bullish sign, so we see space for more bullish movement. Japan will release September retail sales data at 23:50 GMT on Monday (forecast: 0.9% vs. prior 1.2%).

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 28

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 28: MARKET OVERVIEW

US dollar is steady as investors await the outcome of the Fed’s 2-day meeting which will be announced on Wednesday. EUR/USD tried to settle above $1.2700, but faced resistance at $1.2715. GBP/USD consolidates below the yesterday’s high of $1.6150.

AUD/USD edged up to $0.8830 as China and Hong Kong shares rebounded on hopes of more reforms to state-owned enterprises.

USD/JPY stuck in the 108.30 / 107.50 range. Japanese retail sales data came out strong (2.7% vs. 0.9% exp.). BOK Governor Kuroda: “Japan’s economy is showing some weakness”.

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FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 28: MARKET OVERVIEW

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Oct. 29

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1VfG_XPHIc

EUR/USD spiked to $1.2760 as German import prices picked up, while US durable goods orders declined. However, then euro returned lower as US consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels since late 2007. Support is at $1.2720 (200-hour MA) and $1.2700. On Wednesday the pair will be more consolidative ahead of the Fed’s meeting results at 18:00 GMT. Further dynamics will depend on the Fed. Below $1.2700 at least euro will fall to $1.2630. Still, if the Fed doesn’t change its forward guidance to more hawkish, EUR/USD will test $1.2800. In this latter case USD/CAD will slide to 1.1100.

GBP/USD extends the recovery on Monday, but still remains below our major resistance at 1.6200. As we have already mentioned yesterday, price fix above here would confirm a short-term inverse head-and-shoulders with a target at $1.6500. However, the pattern lacks confirmation for now. Great Britain is scheduled to release Net Lending to Individuals data at 8:30 GMT., but the market will mostly be driven by FOMC tomorrow.

USD/JPY keeps on consolidating in the 107.50 / 108.30 range on Tuesday. We hold a long position with a stop order at 107.50. Japan will release preliminary industrial production figures tomorrow (+2.3% exp. versus prior -1.9%).

Volatility in NZD/USD will likely increase tomorrow: watch ANZ business confidence at midnight. In US session on Wednesday RBNZ policy decision will come out at 20:00 GMT – two hours after the FOMC meeting. Downside risks for the pair prevail.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Oct. 29

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MARKET NEWS

Oct. 29: MARKET REVIEW

US dollar is steady ahead of the Fed’s meeting results which will be announced today. The central bank is expected to end QE, but take a cautious tone about raising rates.

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2735 area after reaching $1.2764 yesterday. According to Reuters, there’s a talk of a big option which expiries in the $1.2700/25 area could keep the common currency bound to these levels in the near term. GBP/USD consolidates at $1.6140. Great Britain will release Net Lending to Individuals data at 8:30 GMT.

AUD/USD is consolidating in the $0.8860 zone after spiking to $0.8881 yesterday. Asian stocks rose, with the regional index near the highest level in 4 weeks. NZD/USD rebounded to $0.7930 on strong ANZ Business confidence index (26.5 vs. 13.4 exp.)

USD/JPY has recovered above 108 yen. Strong Japanese Industrial production data: +2.7% vs. +2.3% exp.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Oct. 29: MARKET REVIEW

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct. 29

Open positions*:

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.6140, Take Profit 1.6287, Stop Loss 1.6080

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 107.30, Take Profit 109.25, Stop Loss 107.35

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.8820, Take Profit 0.8970, Stop Loss 0.8780

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.1205, Take Profit 1.1418, Stop Loss 1.1145

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7851, Stop Loss 0.7950

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG AT 136.80, Take Profit 138.54 (revised), Stop Loss 136.48

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2021, Stop Loss 1.2099

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 173.50, Take Profit 175.90, Stop Loss 173.65

NZD/USD: Buy at 0.7905, Take Profit 0.8036, Stop Loss 0.7840

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY at 1.2715/00, Take Profit 1.2810/15

USD/CHF: Look to BUY at 0.9440/35

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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FX BAZOOKA - Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct. 29

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Forex Analytics

Сredit Suisse: fresh Forex forecasts

Here are the most recent Forex forecasts by the Swiss bank Сredit Suissefor the 3- and 12-month periods.



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FX BAZOOKA - ?redit Suisse: fresh Forex forecasts

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 3: MARKET REVIEW

US dollar strengthened as disappointing surveys out of China’s manufacturing and services sectors highlighted the relative health of the US economy, and piled pressure on other countries to ease monetary policy yet further. China’s manufacturing PMI came at 50.8 down from 51.1 in October, while its services sector grew at its slowest pace in 9 months as a cooling property sector weighed on demand.

EUR/USD hit new 2-year minimum at $1.2440. GBP/USD tested $1.5925, but then returned to $1.5980. USD/JPY opened with a gap up and reached a new 7-year high at 112.97 yen.

AUD/USD opened with a gap down and slid to $0.8700 before recovering to $0.8750. Aussie had its biggest decline in three weeks as building approvals fell by 11% in September from August. NZD/USD opened with a gap down and tested $0.7736 before rising to $0.7790.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 3: MARKET REVIEW

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Forex Analytics
5 November 2014

FBS: trade recommendations on EUR / USD

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

Currency pair rebounded slightly yesterday, breaking the resistance 1.2520 / 30. However, today's trades show the weakness of the bulls which fail to hold the positions. Though, consolidation above 1.2520 / 30 can give them the opportunity to continue the recovery of the market in the area of ​​1.2590 / 1.2600, after what the downward trend is likely to continue.

Ichimoku. There is a strong resistance level which is able to stop corrective recovery of the pair precisely in the area of ​​the figure. The mark appears on one-hour (cloud top) and four-hours (Kijun-sen).

Technical levels: Support - 1.2520 / 30; resistance - 1.2590 / 1.2600.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell - 1.2520 / 30; SL - 1.2550; TP1 - 1.2440; TP2 - 1.2360.

2. Sell - 1.2590 / 1.2600; SL - 1.2620; TP1 - 1.2490; TP2 - 1.2440.



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FX BAZOOKA - FBS: trade recommendation for EUR/USD

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Forex Analytics
5 November 2014

FBS: trade recommendation for GBP/USD

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Resistance 1.6010 / 1.6020 restrains the bulls which're trying to correct the course of the currency pair for another day. The pair bounced back from a powerful level again, having gone into the negative zone on one-hour line today at the morning session. That could mean continuation of the downward trend and further break through 1.5930 support, which we discussed in previous issues.

Ichimoku. The indicator is set negatively on both timeframes: the clouds are of bearish character. Trading under all the lines of the indicator may soon lead to the formation of dead crosses. In this case, you can take the bears’ side after the retest of 1.5970 / 80 from the bottom level.

Technical levels: Support - 1.5930, 1.5950; resistance - 1.5980.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell - 1.5980; SL - 1.6000; TP1 - 1.5930; TP2 - 1.5850.



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FX BAZOOKA - FBS: trade recommendation for GBP/USD

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 5: MARKET OVERVIEW

US dollar rose on Wednesday after a sweeping victory by Republicans in the United States’ mid-term elections raised hopes for an end in political gridlock in Washington, boosting risk sentiment. Watch the releases of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (13:15 GMT) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT).

EUR/USD met resistance at 1.2570 on Wednesday. Euro zone will release Services PMI indices at 8:15 – 9:00 GMT and retail sales data at 10:00 GMT. ECB meets on Thursday.

GBP/USD tested the lower edge of its recent range in the 1.5950 area. On Tuesday construction PMI came lower than expected. Today Britain will release services PMI at 09:30 GMT.

USD/JPY has almost reached 114.50. The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda promised to “drastically convert the deflationary mindset” with monetary easing “that is totally different from past policies.” Kuroda mentioned that the BOJ doesn’t see any limits to future policy options, including Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) purchases.

AUD/USD back below 0.8700.

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 5: MARKET OVERVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 6: MARKET REVIEW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuKOvPr0S20

EUR/USD recovered to 1.2520. ECB will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Don’t miss the ECB press conference that follows at 13:30 GMT.

USD/JPY tested 115.50, but then was rejected to 114.05: traders took profit as the pair’s advance has been too rapid and it’s now overbought.

GBP/USD is little changed just below $1.6000 as the market awaits the release of British manufacturing production at 09:30 GMT and the Bank of England’s meeting at 12:00 GMT.

AUD/USD recovered from a new 4-year low of 0.8550 to 0.8600 on labor data. Australian economy added 24K jobs in October versus 20K expected; unemployment rate unchanged at 6.2%.

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 6: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 6: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2475 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2560 (large), 1.2600 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.5800 (large), 1.6000 (large);

USD/JPY: 115.00 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.8550 (large), 0.8630/40 (large), 0.8700 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1350 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.7700 (large), 0.7800 (large), 0.7820 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7850 (large), 0.7900 (large);

AUD/NZD: 1.1250 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 6: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for Nov. 7

EUR/USD fell to a fresh 2-year low of 1.2395 after a dovish ECB press-conference on Thursday. Mario Draghi didn’t announce any new easing measures in November, but underlined the ECB will be unanimous in launching new stimulus if needed. The overall economic prospects remain gloomy, so markets will now be expecting a large-scale QE to come in December. Don’t miss the US NFP on Friday – figure above 200K will likely increase pressure on EUR/USD and pull it down towards the next support at 1.2270.

At the moment of writing we see a spinning top on the USD/JPY daily chart. On the one hand, many traders think that the pair’s overbought. On the other hand, USD/JPY was supported by better US jobless claims and a decline in EUR/USD. There’s nothing on the agenda from Japan, only comments of the Fed’s officials overnight. NFP will be a supporting factor for the greenback, but taking into account the divergence on the H4 chart, we don’t expect the pair to jump at least ahead of the release. USD/JPY is in the short-term rising channel, but the possibility that it will test levels outside this channel, in the 113.20 area, as it gathers strength for another move up.

GBP/USD lowered to $1.5900 – this is actually a bottom of the weekly Cloud. Support is at $1.5870. Pound isn’t paying attention to slightly better releases in the UK (same thing was on Monday), as the market is focused on the US and the euro area. Tomorrow won’t bring any changes. We still see GBP/USD vulnerable to decline to $1.5750 on a break below $1.5870. Resistance is at $1.5950 and $1.6020.

AUD/USD hovers slightly above the 0.8600 mark in the early US trade. The currency is oversold, but a daily close below the 0.8600 figure will likely trigger more sales. Australia is scheduled to release RBA monetary policy statement on Friday at 0:30 GMT – we could once again hear about that the Aussie dollar is overvalued.

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FX BAZOOKA - Trading plan for Nov. 7

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 7: MARKET OVERVIEW

US dollar heads for the biggest weekly gain versus its main counterparts in more than 16 months before a US government report (13:30 GMT) forecast to show employers added more jobs in October than this year’s average. The forecast for NFP is +235K. This week America released solid ADP employment report, while jobless claims contracted – good news about the US labor market.

EUR/USD consolidates around 1.2370 following the yesterday’s dip on the ECB press conference.

AUD/USD lost some pips, slipping to 0.8540. RBA policy statement highlights the risk of a crash in the Chinese property market, lower commodity prices and a still-high currency as the key sources of uncertainty.

USD/JPY crawled up back to 115.50 staying in the short-term bullish channel. GBP/USD closed below the support at 1.5870 on Thursday sliding to the lowest levels since Sep. 2013.

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 7: MARKET OVERVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 7: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices ten4d to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2450 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2550 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.5900/05 (large);

USD/JPY: 114.00 (large), 115.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9460 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.8600 (large), 0.8650 (large), 0.8675 (large), 0.8700 (large), 0.8750 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1300 (large), 1.1350 (large), 1.1500 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.7720, 0.7800;

EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7900, 0.7950.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 7: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 7

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2515, Take Profit 1.2342, Stop Loss 1.2460

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9555, Take Profit 0.9839, Stop Loss 0.9616

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.8735, Take Profit 0.8450, Stop Loss 0.8647

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7756, Stop Loss 0.7930

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2075

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 114.45, look to buy dips

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5950, Take Profit 1.5753, Stop Loss 1.6010

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.1340, Take Profit 1.1597, Stop Loss 1.1260

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4195, Take Profit 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4305

GBP/JPY: BUY at 181.65, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 180.95

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7755, Take Profit 0.7587, Stop Loss 0.7810

EUR/JPY: BUY lower at 140.40

__________________________________________________ _______________

*Analysts at Danske Bank apply trailing stop orders

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FX BAZOOKA - Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 7

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 10: MARKET REVIEW

FXBAZOOKA.com - USD fell for a second day gapping down in major pairs after US October payrolls growth was weaker than economists expected and traders reduced bets for an early Federal Reserve interest-rate increase.

EUR/USD rose almost to 1.2490.

GBP/USD rose above 1.5900.

USD/JPY tested levels below 114.00.

AUD/USD rose to 0.8680 and NZD/USD went up to the levels just below 0.7800 as Chinese trade surplus came out above forecasts.

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 10: MARKET REVIEW

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MARKET NEWS

Nov. 10: key option levels

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.2300 (large), 1.2350 (large), 1.2400 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2550 (large);

USD/JPY: 113.00 (large), 113.70/80 (large), 115.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9650 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.85000 (large), 0.8600 (large), 0.8650 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large), 1.1305 (large), 1.1400 (large);

NZD/USD:0.7600 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Nov. 10: key option levels

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Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 10

Open positions*:

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.1320, Take Profit 1.1450, Stop Loss 1.1250

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7756, Stop Loss 0.7930

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2075

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 181.65, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 180.95

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7755, Take Profit 0.7587, Stop Loss 0.7810

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/USD: Look to SELL higher

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL higher

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5950, Take Profit 1.5753, Stop Loss 1.6010

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4195, Take Profit 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4305

EUR/JPY: BUY lower at 140.40

__________________________________________________ _______________

*Analysts at Danske Bank apply trailing stop orders

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FX BAZOOKA - Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 10

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Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)

By Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The market is now developping a descending corrective wave [b] that takes form of a complicated tripple three. The final descending zigzag (z) is now being built. Let's see the markup in details.



Daily. Initial bearish impulse A is close to its end. When the wave A will be over, the market will develop a bullish corrective wave B. Let's see the wave A in details.



H4. The market is forming a descending impulse wave [5] of A. This week the market will likely develop a horizontal correction (4). Afterwards the decline in a wave (5) will continue. The potential trajectory is marked on a chart.



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FX BAZOOKA - AUD/USD: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)

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Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)

Daily. USD/JPY keeps developing the global uptrend. The market is growing after a period of horizontal movements.



H12. Here is the layout of the rising pulse V, which is close to an end. When the wave [5] of V is completed, the trend will reverse. So, let’s consider the layout of the wave [5].



H4. This week USD will develop a downward corrective wave (4). When this wave is completed, the pair will continue rising in the impulse (5) and the maximum will be updated. The approximate scheme of future movements is shown at the chart.



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FX BAZOOKA - USD/JPY: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)

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Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)

By Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The market continues developping a descending trend that could become a final part of the global bearish zigzag A-B-C.



Daily. Waves [1] and [2] have already been constructed. Wave [2] took a form of a double tripple. Next week we expect the pair to decline in a new descending trend [3].



H4. On the chart one could see a markup of the last part of the trend. This week the market will be forming waves 3-4-5 of (1). Beware of a correction, though.



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FX BAZOOKA - GBP/USD: wave analysis (Nov. 10-16)