Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bears are moving south
4/3/2017

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is trading within descending channel. The bears keep the pair under control, and successful test of support at 118.6 will strengthen the risks of decline towards 117.35 and 116.6. The bulls still have chances to change the situation and make the pair form the inverted 5-0 pattern. To do that they will firstly need to overcome resistance at 119.95.



On H1, EUR/JPY keeps forming the reversal widening wedge pattern. For this wedge to be formed the pair should overcome resistance at 119.8. On the other hand, decline below March low would allow the bears to keep going south.



Recommendation: SELL 118,6 SL 119,15 TP1 117,35 TP2 116,6 BUY 119,8 SL 119,25 TP 120,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13054

[riki143]

NZD/USD: bulls are running out of power
4/3/2017

On the daily chart, NZD/USD made several attempts to bring the quotes outside of the descending channel but failed. In order to break the short-term descending trend, the buyers need a successful test of 0.7070. On the other hand, the return of the quotes to 0.6975 and its following break will increase the risks of a 5-0 pattern.



On H1, NZD/USD successful test of support at 0.6975 will trigger the Shark pattern. Its 113% target is close to 0.687. To resume the medium-term bullish trend the buyers need to return the price inside the previous uptrend channel.



Recommendation: BUY 0,707 SL 0,7015 TP 0,7205, SELL 0,6975 SL 0,703 TP 0,687.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13055

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, April 3rd
4/3/2017

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 18 496 ? - 36 800 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0706; 1.0752; 1.0778; 1.0820
Closest support levels 1.0660; 1.0628; 1.0609; 1.0586
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0706 (or from 1.0660), with target points at 1.0752 and 1.0778
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0660 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0628 and 1.0609

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 78 ? + 259 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3310; 1.3358; 1.3403; 1.3430
Closest support levels 1.3273; 1.3250; 1.3210
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD from 1.3310, with the target points at 1.3358 and 1.3403
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3273 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3250 and 1.3210

AUD/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 86 ? + 3 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7636; 0.7655; 0.7676; 0.7710
Closest support levels 0.7610; 0.7581; 0.7542; 0.7497
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7610 (or from 0.7636), with the target points at 0.7581 and 0.7542
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7636 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7655 and 0.7676

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13056

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears are pulling down
4/5/2017

On the daily chart bears managed to lead the quotes out of the descending channel. This increases the risks of triggering "Bat" pattern with a target at 88.6%. The necessary condition of this scenario is the successful test of support at 1.2370. On the other hand, the pound's return above resistance at $1.2495 will increase the risks of uptrend resumption.



On H1, patterns "Bat' and AB=CD allow determining potential of the downward movement. Their targets are close to 1.2305 and 1.2160. The break of support at 1.2420 will increase the risks of a decline.



Recommendation: SELL 1,242 SL 1,2475 TP 1,2305.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13063

[riki143]

AUD/USD: will Aussie catch a crab?
4/5/2017

On the daily chart, bears managed to reach 78.6% target of the Gartley pattern. If the current support at 0.7540 doesn's stop them, Gartley will transform into Crab pattern will increase the risks of decline towards 0.7315. The necessary condition for this scenario is a successful test of resistance at 0.7515.



On H1 AUD/USD is trading within a downtrend channel. The bears retain control for the pair. The best strategy is to sell Australian currency on its advance to 0.7595.



Recommendation: SELL 0,7595 SL 0,765 TP1 0,75 TP2 0,7315.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13064

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, April 5th

EUR/USD

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13065/EURUSD(159).png[/IG]

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 6 193 ? - 28 558 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0693; 1.0738; 1.0764; 1.0808
Closest support levels 1.0649; 1.0619; 1.0579; 1.0554
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0693 (or from 1.0649), with target points at 1.0738 and 1.0764
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0649 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0619 and 1.0579

GBP/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 291 ? - 228 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2464; 1.2492; 1.2533; 1.2567
Closest support levels 1.2414; 1.2380; 1.2340; 1.2295
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2464 (or from 1.2414), with target points at 1.2492 and 1.2533
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2414 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2380 and 1.2340

AUD/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 63 ? + 80 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7608; 0.7653; 0.7701; 0.7751
Closest support levels 0.7576; 0.7547; 0.7523; 0.7491
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7576 (or from 0.7608), with the target points at 0.7547 and 0.7523
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7608 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7653 and 0.7701

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13065

[riki143]

USD/JPY: a further downfall is not ruled out
4/6/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the bulls failed to push quotes outside the downward trading channel. The 5-0 pattern has been fulfilled. Rollback from the 38.2% level of the CD wave allowed us to open short positions. The update of March lows will increase the risks of continuation of the downward movement towards108.8 and lower.



On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the attack on the important resistance at 111.45 has failed. A successful test of the support at 110.25 will activate the AB = CD pattern with target 109.6.



Recommendations:

SELL 110,25 SL 110,8 TP1 109,6 TP2 108,8,

BUY 111,45 SL 110,90 TP 112,85.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13066

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls are forcing their way through
4/6/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, a breakout of the resistance at 1.3405 will allow us to talk about the continuation of the implementation of the 5-0 pattern. After a rollback in the direction of 50% level of the CD wave, the bulls managed to restore the uptrend. They might extend their gains to 1.354 and 1.357.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, if quotes manage to go out from the 1.328-1.34 consolidation range within "Splash and ledge" pattern, we will be able to open long positions. If the bulls manage to update the March highs and activate the AB = CD pattern, there might a continuation of the rally towards 1.36 direction.



Recommendations: hold long positions (BUY 1,34 SL 1,3345 TP 1,352).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13067

[riki143]

Morning brief for April 6
4/6/2017

Traders were toiling like galley slaves overnight as there were plenty of economic releases that led to some intraday moves. ADP payrolls showed a gain of 263K vs consensus 184K. It is a great result for the current point of the business cycle, and since the correlation between official and ADP prints has improved in the past months, we might wait for something like “the data beats market expectations” from Friday’s NFP.

Non-manufacturing ISM was worse than expected. Then, there was the FOMC Minutes showing that the Fed is going to trim its $4.5 trillion balance sheet well into the end of this year, or even earlier. This was interpreted as implying less need for Fed’s rate increases as a phasing down of the reinvestment policy can act as a de facto tightening.

There was also a disappointing headline in the news. Senate Majority Leader Paul Ryan said that the House, Senate and Mr. Trump are definitely not on the same wavelength with regard to tax policy. So, It would take more time for policymakers to decide on the tax reform than on the repeal of Obamacare bill (which is still not resolved). The English of this is there won’t be any repeal of healthcare, no wall, no lower corporate tax rates in the near-term. It seems that we will have to arm ourselves with lots of patience.

This session will be as busy as previous one (mid-week time, what else to expect from it). There will be the much-hyped first meeting between Xi and Trump. The US President might touch upon China’s currency manipulations and unfair trade policy, or might not if we believe on his bare word addressed to FT journalists (in the recent interview, Trump told that he would prefer not to talk about tariffs at the upcoming meeting with Xi). North Korea is likely mentioned – especially after yesterday’s missile test.

EUR/USD ticked up in the course of Tokyo session from 1.0667 to almost 1.0690. The downward pressure is still present though, another drop towards the 1.0595 support is not ruled out until prices manage to test 1.0730/1.0770 levels successfully. Euro watchers will be waiting for the ECB President Draghi’s speech which is due at 9:00 pm MT time.

Aussie/greenback outlook is neutral for the present moment. The quotes are trading around 1.0765. The immediate pressure is still on the downside towards 0.7615. A break of resistance at 0.7650 will allow us to talk about a further upsurge towards 0.7660. The Australian economic calendar is light. The pair is likely driven by USD fundamentals today.

Kiwi was one of those who little changed on the session, although it did take a shot to rise higher. NZD/USD is now ranging within 0.6975 – 0.6995 levels.

USD/JPY was lower on the session from 112.20 to 111.65. The support at 111.50 is still intact. If it is broken the quotes will slide towards the restraint at 110.00. The technical outlook will change from neutral to bullish if prices go out of their 110.00/112.20 consolidation range.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3295 in the course of this week due to the recent rally in oil prices. Brent oil futures hit $55.06 yesterday but then skipped some points after US government reported a sudden increase in US crude inventories. Loonie watcher should focus their attention on Canadian building permits coming out at 12:30 pm today.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13068

[riki143]

Ahead of Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting
4/6/2017

US President Donald Trump is meeting China’s President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago resort later today. While Trump treated Japan’s PM Abe to golf, no such outing is planned for the leader of China. So, it is going to be all business, nothing personal.

The meeting for Xi Jinping

It is an opportunity to establish a personal rapport with Trump and prevent an imminent trade war that threatens to pull China's economy to pieces and make the current economic slowdown more painful. There is also a potential risk for Xi’s reputation as General Secretary of the communist Party of China. Some party members are not satisfied with Xi’s reform plans. They will be searching for some “ammunition” in Trump-Xi meeting for the political debates in which they will try to thwart the introduction of new reforms. A conflict with the US leader could potentially undermine Xi’s leadership credential he has been forging during his tenure as China’s President.

The meeting for Trump

It is an opportunity to rebuke Chinese government for its manipulation of the currency, unfair trade policies, militarization of the South China Sea and failing to make more efforts to stop North Korea’s aggression. Most likely US President will use the One-China policy regarding Taiwan as a bargaining chip to strike a better trade deal with China.

China will probably try to deny Trump’s evidence-free accusations of currency manipulation. And it would be fair. While yuan was long viewed as undervalued, now it is no longer the case. In the recent years, Beijing allowed the renminbi to appreciate. Moreover, if China refused to control the exchange rate of its nation’s currency, it would have considerable adverse ramifications for trade and global growth.

What would be the market reaction?

In the last interview with the FT Trump said that he wouldn’t be surprised if he and Xi did something that would appear “really dramatic and good for both country”. It might happen given the Trump’s willingness to flaunt his influence after numerous failures on the legislation front.

If this happened, it would definitely be positive for traditional safe-haven currencies, gold and Treasuries.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13069

[riki143]

EUR/USD outlook after today’s Draghi’s speech
4/6/2017

ECB Governor Mario Draghi made a scheduled speech earlier today. Overall, his comments were dovish. It seems that the central bank officials are starting to talk down markets’ taper expectations. The CB head Draghi said that there is no need to deviate from the present wording of bank’s monetary policy stance.

Ultra-loose ECB measures proved to be effective. The general outlook for the euro area economies is gradually improving. The unemployment rate did decrease in the past years, but it is still unclear how quickly lower jobless figures feed into wages. The inflation rate is still well below the coveted 2%; there is scant evidence that it is steady enough (we saw inflation figures hitting ECB target in February; in March, we saw them slowing dramatically driven by lower energy prices), thus, a substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed. So, according to Mario Draghi, it is too early to snap into the reassessment of the current monetary policy stance; the ECB policymakers will wait for more evidence before leaving the path of their current ultra-loose monetary policy.

EUR/USD skipped some points on Mario Draghi’s dovishness. Going ahead the euro will probably stay under some pressure in light of the release of ECB monetary policy meeting accounts. At the present moment, the pair is still going through its consolidation phase – it is trading around 1.0690. The immediate resistances can be found at 1.0730 (100-H4 MA) and 1.0770 (23.6% Fibo level traced from this year low). On the flip side, there are several supports located at 1.0655 (200-H4 MA) and 1.0620 (50% Fibo retracement level). They are likely tested if the wording of the minutes is extremely dovish.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13070

[riki143]

Gold resurfaced
4/7/2017

On the daily chart of gold, there was a breakout of the important resistance at $1262 per ounce. As a result, the AB = CD pattern has been activated. Its 200% target is located near $1335. To reach this target, the bulls will need to push quotes out of the long-term downward trading channel and test the resistance at $1280.

{IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13071/Screenshot_2017_04_07_08_16_20.png[/IMG]

On the hourly chart of gold, the ascending triangle pattern has been realized. The bulls might try to retest the upper border of the triangle located at $1262. In case of breakout, there will be a continuation of the rally.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13071

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bears play cat and mouse
4/7/2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, the "bears" have implemented the targets on the short positions and reached support at 117.35. A successful test of this level will lead to the continuation of a downward movement towards the convergence zone 116.55-116.75. Bears remain control over the pair. Traders might consider selling on rollbacks or on breakouts of supports.



On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, a downward triangle has been formed. A successful test of its lower border can lead to the continuation of the downward movement. The immediate supports can be found near 118.4 and 119.05.



Recommendations: SELL 118,4 SL 118,95 TP 116,75,

SELL 119,05 SL 119,6 TP 117,35.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13072

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, April 7th
4/7/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.




Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 29 338 ? + 156 643 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0682; 1.0723; 1.0752; 1.0785-99
Closest support levels 1.0632; 1.0602; 1.0562; 1.0512
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0632 (or from 1.0682), with target points at 1.0602 and 1.0562
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0682 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0752


USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 165 ? + 70 ?
Closest resistance levels 110.72; 111.04; 111.41; 111.67
Closest support levels 110.34; 110.04; 109.60; 109.30
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 110.72 (or from 110.04), with target points at 111.04 and 111.41
Alternative scenario Moving below 110.34 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 110.04 and 109.60


GBP/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 288 ? + 22 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2460; 1.2499; 1.2524; 1.2555
Closest support levels 1.2432; 1.2412; 1.2388; 1.2359
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2460 (or from 1.2432), with target points at 1.2499 and 1.2524
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2432 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2412 and 1.2388

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13073

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls built strongholds
4/10/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the bears successfully attacked the bulls' strongholds located near 1.0635. The immediate support is located near 1.05. If it is broken, the "Shark" pattern with target 88.6% will be activated.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, after near-term consolidation, there is a continuation of the downtrend. "Bulls" will try to defend 1.058, 1.054 and 1.0495 levels. From each of these levels, a rebound is possible.Then, there will be a development of the correction. The nearest resistance level can be found near 1.0635.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13074

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi is losing its ground
4/10/2017


On the NZD/USD daily chart, there is a realization of 5-0 pattern. The failure of bulls to push quotes beyond the downward trading channel shows their weakness. There can be a continuation of the downward movement towards 0.674. There is 161.8% target in the AB = CD pattern.



On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the "Shark" pattern is still relevant. Its target 113% is located near 0.687. The nearest resistance levels are 0.6942 and 0.6965. The market is dominated by bears, so you might consider selling on the growth of the quotes.



Recommendations: hold short positions (SELL 0,6975 SL 0,703 TP 0,687),

SELL 0,6965 SL 0,702 TP1 0,687 TP2 0,674.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13075

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, April 10th

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 28 123 ? + 69 379 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0617; 1.0663-75; 1.0709; 1.0746
Closest support levels 1.0585; 1.0560; 1.0525; 1.0480
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0585, with target points at 1.0617 and 1.0663
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0585 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0560 and 1.0525

GBP/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 511 ? + 304 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2414; 1.2440; 1.2466; 1.2485
Closest support levels 1.2366; 1.2338; 1.2318; 1.2294
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2414 (or from 1.2366), with target points at 1.2440 and 1.2466
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2366 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2338 and 1.2318

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 820 ? + 116 ?
Closest resistance levels 111.63; 111.86; 112.15; 112.49
Closest support levels 111.05; 110.63; 110.34; 109.84
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 111.63 (or from 111.05), with target points at 111.86 and 112.15
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.05 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 110.63 and 110.34

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13076

[riki143]

Morning brief for April 10
4/10/2017

US yields moved higher on Monday as increased geopolitical risks pushed investors to favor safe-haven assets. The US missile strikes were seen as a warning to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to stop using chemical weapons in the ongoing civil war. Friday’s labor report hit the markets quite hard as it showed that the economy added 98K jobs in march, the fewest since May 2016. Other important news from the past week was the agreement between the US and China to start a 100-day examination of trade issues. Trump and Xi were both upbeat after the meeting. The former one was happy to hail an “outstanding relationship” with the US major competitor – China. Chinese President was happy to get deeply acquainted and to establish close ties with the American leader. So, this makes us believe that Trump would abstain from applying harsh epithets to China’s currency manipulations and that US-China relationship will be more or less stable for a while.

EUR/USD has started the week on a joyful note having rebounded from its Friday’s low at 1.0578. But the single currency remains to be a subject to downside risks ahead of the first round of the French presidential election. The next key level to the downside can be found at 1.0490 (February low). It will be acting as a quite sturdy support. A move above 1.0665 would be a sign that the immediate downward pressure has eased. Today, we would recommend you to set an alarm clock for 11:10 pm MT time as at this time Fed’s Chair Yellen will be speaking at the University of Michigan and answering the audience questions.

USD/JPY was a gainer in Tokyo morning. It rose above 111.50 as global market stabilized after the US missile attacks on Syria and Trump’s meeting Xi ran smoothly. The quotes may rise higher at least to 112.20 (March 31 high). On the downside, there is a solid support at 110.60.

USD/CAD rose to 1.3412 in the past session having pared its Friday’s losses. Loonie has strengthened significantly on the surge of the oil prices in the course of the past week. Brent oil futures were rallying since the beginning of April due to the talks about extension of output cut deal. Russia energy minister Novak has discussed the possible extension of the deal on Friday. But we will receive more clarifications on whether the deal can be extended or not by the end of April or in the beginning of May ahead of the 172th OPEC meeting.

GBP/USD got a positive momentum on Monday after having slid to 1.2360 at the end of the past week. The pound has some chances for recovery in the near-term if the upcoming UK CPI figures and labor market data beat market’s expectations. Today’s economic calendar for the pair is light.

Aussie suffered significant losses in the course of the past week having dropped to 0.7490. Only a move back to 0.7550 would indicate that immediate downward pressure has eased. The sudden weakness of Aussie can be explained by the tremendous downfall of iron ore and copper prices. Friday was the worst day for iron ore in over a year, as the price of benchmark 62% fines declined by 6.76% to $75.45 per ton.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13077

[riki143]

GBP/USD: triangle didn't help the bears
4/11/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a formation of the "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. The pound is consolidating in the range of 1.237-1.256. A breakout of the diagonal resistance (the upper limit of the downward trading channel) near 1.2465 can lead to the continuation of the rally. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.237 can lead to the implementation of the 88.6% target in the "Bat" pattern.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the triangle has been formed, it helped bears to lead them away to the downside. A breakout of its lower border led to the drop of quotes towards the support at 1.236, but there was no additional downfall. This shows the weakness of the "bears" and creates the prerequisites for the development of consolidation.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13080

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bulls got too excited
4/11/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, the realization of the Wolf Waves pattern continues An update of the April high will allow the bulls to count on the continuation of the rally and the implementation of the 1.0203 target. If they succeed, the chances for the implementation of the 88.6% target in the Shark reversal pattern will increase significantly. The nearest support can be found near 1.004.



On the USD/CHF hourly chart, buyers are trying to test an important level of 1.0095. Its breakout followed by the successful test of the resistance at 1.013 can lead to the restoration of the "bullish" trend.



Recommendation: hold long positions (BUY 1,0035 SL 0,9980 TP1 1,013 TP2 1,0205)

Mpre:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13081

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, April 11th
4/11/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 4 226 ? + 3 136 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0593; 1.0623; 1.0663-75; 1.0708
Closest support levels 1.0569; 1.0534; 1.0513; 1.0489
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0593 (or from 1.0569), with target points at 1.0623 and 1.0663
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0569 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0534 and 1.0513


GBP/USD



ain trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 419 ? + 213 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2447; 1.2467; 1.2490/1.2505; 1.2547
Closest support levels 1.2398; 1.2365; 1.2342; 1.2315
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2398 (or from 1.2447), with target points at 1.2365 and 1.2342
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2447 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2467 and 1.2490


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest -14 ? + 321 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3326-35; 1.3376; 1.3419; 1.3475
Closest support levels 1.3289; 1.3266; 1.3235; 1.3187
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario OUT OF THE MARKET
Alternative scenario

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13082

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears sweep away all obstacles
4/12/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the quotes moved beyond the consolidation range of 110.2-111.55. The realization of the AB = CD continues. Its target is located at 200% level of the BC wave (107.5). To hit this level, the bears will have to break the support at 108.8. The immediate resistance can be found at 110.2.



On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. The AB = CD pattern with 224% target of the BC wave is still relevant. It corresponds to the level of 107.5.



Recommendations: hold shorts (SELL 110,25 SL 110,8 TP1 109,6 TP2 108,8).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13083

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears are playing with Crab
4/12/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, an intermediate 113% target in the "Crab" pattern has been fulfilled. There is a continuation of the downward movement. The targets are located near 0.7415 and 0.731. Bulls can get their own back only in case of a successful test of the resistance at 0.7525.



On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the "Widening Wedge" pattern can be formed. A necessary condition for its formation is a successful test of the 1-3 wave (0.7515). If it is tested successfully, focus on the point 5. The pullbacks from 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels and from the 4-5 wave can be used for opening long positions. The nearest resistance levels can be found near 0.7555 and 0.7585.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13084

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, April 12th
4/12/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 62 621 ? + 399 662 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0636; 1.0678-89; 1.0721; 1.0757
Closest support levels 1.0602; 1.0576; 1.0540; 1.0518
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0602 (or from 1.0636), with target points at 1.0576 and 1.0540
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0636 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0678 and 1.0721


USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 270 ? + 87 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3333; 1.3378; 1.3421; 1.3477
Closest support levels 1.3289; 1.3266; 1.3233; 1.3187
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3333 (or from 1.3289), with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3421
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3289 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3266 and 1.3233

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13086

[riki143]

Gold: bulls are working hard
4/13/2017

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls updated February high and tested the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel. As a result, the AB = CD pattern was activated. Its targets are located near $1286 (127.2%), $1312 (161.8%), $1340 (200%) and $1357(224%) per ounce.



On the hourly chart of gold, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The bulls remain their control over the pair. In this situation, you might consider buying on the rollbacks to the support or on the formation of longs at the break of resistance.



Recommendations:

BUY $1278 SL $1263 TP1 $1312 TP2 $1340,

BUY $1270 SL $1255 TP $1312.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13087

[riki143]

USD/CAD: shakeout-fakeout pattern has been realized
4/13/2017

On the USD/CAD chart, a successful attack on the diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel activated the Gartley pattern with a target 78.6%. The convergence zone is located near 1.31. The nearest important resistance can be found at 1.3305.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the "Shakeout-fakeout" pattern has been realized. Quotes fell below the lower boundary of the "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. This tells us about the weakness of the bears and allows us to bet on the realization of the Gartley pattern.



Recommendation: SELL 1,328 SL 1,3335 TP 1,31.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13088

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, April 13th
4/13/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 33 346 ↑ + 436 130 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.0682; 1.0715; 1.0767; 1.0803
Closest support levels 1.0620; 1.0586; 1.0561; 1.0525
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD from the current price or from 1.0682, with target points at 1.0620 and 1.0586
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0682 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0715 and 1.0767


USD/JPY





Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 287 ↑ + 880 ↑
Closest resistance levels 109.43; 109.93; 110.39; 110.62
Closest support levels 108.97/74 (Highly important); 108.47; 108.14; 107.78
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long USD/JPY above 108.97, with target points at 109.43 and 109.93
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.97 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 108.47 and 108.14


USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 9 ↑ + 29 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3266; 1.3324; 1.3367; 1.3408
Closest support levels 1.3236; 1.3189; 1.3129; 1.3058
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario OUT OF THE MARKET
Alternative scenario OUT OF THE MARKET

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13089

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are preparing for breakout
4/14/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, quotes returned to the border of the upward trading channel. There is the diagonal support. If the bears manage to test it, the update of the April low will open the way towards 1.046 and 1.0405. To regain control over the pair, the bulls will need to raise the euro above 1.0695.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there was an unsuccessful return of quotes to the consolidation range of 1.0635-1.0685. Bulls showed their weakness having failed to consolidate there. As a result, a triangle was formed. A breakout of its lower border near 1.0595 will increase the risk of continuation of the downward movement.



Recommendation: SELL 1,0595 SL 1,065 TP 1,046.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13090

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi came to the Rubicon
4/14/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. A break of its upper border can lead to the correction towards 0.707 and higher. In contrast, if the "bears" manage to keep the New Zealand dollar below the psychologically important level of 0.7, it might lead to the continuation of the downward movement and implementation of the 113% and 161.8% targets in the Shark and AB = CD patterns.



On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the further downward movement will depend on whether sellers manage to return quotes to within the borders of the downward trading channel. The drop of the pair below 0.697 can lead to the restoration of the downward trend.



More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13091

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, April 14th
4/14/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD




Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 344 590 ? - 470 131 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0646; 1.0703; 1.0735; 1.0785
Closest support levels 1.0611; 1.0583; 1.0544; 1.0521
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0611 or from 1.0646, with target points at 1.0583 and 1.0544
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0646 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0703 and 1.0735

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 816 ? + 571 ?
Closest resistance levels 109.41; 109.97; 110.25; 110.58
Closest support levels 108.53; 108.14; 107.87; 107.56
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY from the current price (108.85 at the time of publication) or from 108.53, with target points at 109.41 and 109.97
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.53 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 108.14 and 107.87

AUD/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 165 ? + 30 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7611; 0.7651; 0.7681; 0.7717
Closest support levels 0.7557; 0.7523; 0.7496; 0.7463
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7557 (or from 0.7611), with the target points at 0.7523 and 0.7496
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7611 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7651 and 0.7681

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13092

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 17
06:24 17.04.2017

Sleeping Forex – the Land of Nod…The market was too sleepy to start this week with major trading centers still closed for a holiday on Monday. Markets are braced for more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, after its failure to launch a ballistic missile on Sunday. US Vice President Mike Pence fasten his eyes upon the demilitarized border between North and South Korea, reiterating that the U.S. "era of strategic patience" with Kim-Jong-un was over.
The major focus of Tokyo session was Chinese economic data. China’s economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, a shtik above consensus forecast of 6.8%, supported by a government generous infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market. Overall, a raft of the data failed to produce a notable effect as investors were somewhat cognizant of an upbeat print following a recent range of positive figures from China.
The yen extended its gains amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY tumbled below 108.35 in the early hours of today’s session. The odds that quotes slide lower towards 108.00, 107.50 are quite high as the bearish phase is still intact.
The euro edged down to 1.0620 on the session. Ahead of the first round of French presidential elections scheduled for April 23, Le Pen is slowly fading with the rest of the front-runner generally unchanged. Macron, Fillon, and Melenchon are snapping on her heels striving to chase Marin out of her place as a leader in the pre-election race. EUR/USD has moved into consolidation phase trading between 1.0555 and 1.0700 levels.
Aussie spiked to 0.75990 on the strong headline in Chinese data. China’s demand for Australia’s exported industrial commodities such as iron ore was truly strong in recent months. The current rebound is to extend higher to 0.7615, 0.7630.
GBP/USD rose slightly above 1.2530. The British pound has scope to extend its gain to at least 1.2615.
USD/CAD slipped a few point in the Asian session thanks to weakening USD. Oil prices weren’t supportive. Brent oil futures fell to $55.40 from $55.80 on Monday on signs the expanding US oil production industry, undermining OPEC efforts to support prices and reduce oil glut.
The Turkish lira jumped to 3.6800 against the greenback after President Tayyip Erdogan snatched a victory in a referendum on Sunday that was organized in order to replace Turkey’s parliamentary system with the presidency and abolish the post of prime minister.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning-april17

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is a bit cramped on the ledge
4/17/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides.



Recommendations:

SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,

BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13093

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: euro's precipitous downfall
4/17/2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The previously set targets on short positions have been fulfilled. A successful test of 114.56 will increase the odds of fulfilling the target 88.6% in the Bat pattern. It is located near 113.3.



On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. In this situation, the best trading strategies would be selling on growth or opening short positions on the breakouts of supports. The nearest resistances can be found at 115.5, 115.7 and 116.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13094

[riki143]

GBP/USD: MOVING AVERAGE WAITING FOR BEARS
06:34 17.04.2017



The price faced a support at 1.2506, so there’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward correction towards a resistance at 1.2595 – 1.2614.



The 34 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. The main bullish target is a resistance at 1.2573 – 1.2595.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/g...nical_april_17

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STILL PUSHING PRICE LOWER
06:29 17.04.2017



The main trend is still bearish. The price faced a support at 1.0600, so there’s a developing upward correction. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0571 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0655 as an intraday bullish target.



The price is testing the downtrend, which is likely going to be broken in the coming hours. So, the main intraday target is a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0655.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/e...nical_april_17

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: EURO'S PRECIPITOUS DOWNFALL
06:49 17.04.2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The previously set targets on short positions have been fulfilled. A successful test of 114.56 will increase the odds of fulfilling the target 88.6% in the Bat pattern. It is located near 113.3.



On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. In this situation, the best trading strategies would be selling on growth or opening short positions on the breakouts of supports. The nearest resistances can be found at 115.5, 115.7 and 116.



More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/precipitous-downfall

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS A BIT CRAMPED ON THE LEDGE
06:52 17.04.2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides.



Recommendations:
SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,
BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/a-bit-cramped-on-the

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY SENKOU SPAN B
07:12 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0600; resistance – 1.0660, 1.0715.
Trade recommendations:
1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0660; TP2 – 1.0715.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are in a same value; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.



[More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/e...-senkou-span-b

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS UNDER STRONG RESISTANCE
07:17 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2530; resistance – 1.2550, 1.2590.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2430; TP2 — 1.2400.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance; the local market is overbought.



More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/g...ong-resistance

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PRICE GOING TO TEST "WINDOW" AGAIN
12:24 17.04.2017



The 34 Moving Average and the upper “Window” have acted as a resistance. However, there isn’t any bearish pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 & 144 Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.



The last bearish “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, but we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to find a lodgment under Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/e...andle_april_17