Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Bitcoin is poised to become a real asset
2/15/2017



It seems that our whimsical adolescent bitcoin puts hair up acting more like a grown-up financial asset. Its wild swings, seen three years ago, are less evident now. It is becoming less volatile, although its contentious temper still makes itself felt from time to time. Last week’s spikes back up this assertion. The cryptocurrency slumped to 943.80 from 1078.25 on February 10 after the People’s Bank of China issued its hardest warning to the domestic bitcoin industry saying that platforms trading bitcoin risk being shut down if they violate regulations on money laundering, foreign-exchange management and other issues. Some top exchanges had to halt client withdrawals temporally in compliance with the central bank’s requirements. This led many traders to close their positions and sent BTC/USD to its low for the first time since January 12, 2017. Others keep an eye on the further developments in China where the bitcoin industry has spawned significantly in recent years (there is a strong demand in China for bitcoin because of the significant fall in value of the yuan).

For all the volatility, though, the digital currency is showing signs of becoming a serious asset. It became less volatile for numerous reasons. The trade volume of bitcoin has increased, and the circulation of cryptocurrency is broader than it used to be 3 years ago. Another reason of bitcoin’s relative stability is that nowadays investors are able to hedge their positions or even short the high-risk asset using futures contracts traded through Bitmex or Bitfinex, special marketplaces for lending bitcoin to people who want to sell it short. The popularity of bitcoin may increase even further especially if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SED) approve at least one of the existent bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds. It would provide individual investors an opportunity to invest over the longer periods of time in bitcoins and eliminate the worries about thefts of digital currency from digital wallets.



The SED promised to issue its ruling on the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, operated by American rowers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss (you must know them; they sued Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for purportedly stealing their idea to create the social networking site) by March 11. If the trust is approved, bitcoin will surge significantly from the present levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12494

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" pushed the price lower
2/15/2017



We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern above the “Window”. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest support level.



The lower “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Three Black Crows” pattern, so bears are likely going to test the closest support during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12495

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/15/2017



The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.



The nearest strong “Window” has been broken, so the price is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, bulls will probably try to reach the next upper “Window” during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12496

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [i] is about to end
2/15/2017



Wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag, so the price is declining in wave [i]. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [ii].



As we can see on the one-hours chart, wave [i] is about to end. We’ve got an extension in wave (iii) and a small correction in wave (iv). If a pullback from 4/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12498

[riki143]

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
2/15/2017

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
Next buy target – 89.00
AUD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 87.00 (previous buy target, which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of December, as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3) – both of which belong to the primary impulse wave ? from the end of December.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 89.00. Protective stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 87.00.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12501

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke support area
2/15/2017

EUR/AUD broke support area
Next sell target - 1.3600
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support area lying between the support levels 1.4000 and 1.3900, both of which were set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which then broke the support trendline of the daily down channel from last September.

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.3600 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave (iii)).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12502

[riki143]

FBS GRAND EVENT COMES TO KUALA LUMPUR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFIFkqe53WM

It took place on January 28th at the 5-star hotel - Grand Hyatt Kuala Lumpur. Though our party was synchronous with the celebration of Lunar New Year, very important holiday in Malaysia, our dear clients found the time to join us.

This was our second experience of holding the Grand Event and we were more or less prepared for it, but it is really impossible to get used to the super warm welcome, that we received in Kuala Lumpur. At some points, this event was very similar to the event in Thailand, yet, it was uniquely special thanks to the atmosphere, our guests have created.

The party was literally starting from the entrance – the team of professional animators made a bright and remarkable welcome show at the reception desk. Guests were watching the led light performance with acute fascination. Photo zone was full of those who wished to make a photo with FBS team.

FBS top management took part in this photo session with great pleasure, using the occasion to communicate with traders in non-working atmosphere. Altogether, we even made a super big common selfie, which is now placed on the wall in our office.

The official part of the Event was mixed with funny contests, where guests received exclusive t-shirts from FBS trader’s collection as gifts.

FBS CEO Mr. Denis Slinkin made a speech where he thanked Malaysian traders for choosing our company as a broker and told about the company’s plans for the future. The guests were also sharing their ideas and gave a huge useful feedback.

Of course, the most interesting part of the event was the entertainment program. It started with traditional dance performance, devoted to Lunar New Year celebration. Everybody was amazed with the luxury costumes and glide movements of the dancers.

As usual, FBS prepared an outstanding surprise for its traders – the VIP guests of the show were singer Dayang Nurfaizah and comedian Harith Iskander. Adorable and one and only Dayang Nurfaizah sang her super hit “Lelaki Teragung” (Greatest Man), which has won Malaysia’s annual music competition “Anugerah Juara Lagu” (Champion of Song Awards). To say the guests were happy is to say nothing! Harith Iskander was also genius and extra comic, everybody started laughing just looking at his hilarious facial expressions.

By the way, he also won a prestige award - "Funniest person in the world 2016" in the World competition held in Levi, Finland.

Traditionally, guests received luxury Apple prizes from FBS – latest iPhones, iPads, MacBook Pro laptop and the biggest and main prize – iMac! What we know for sure is – giving presents is a lot nicer than receiving them! This is why we are making so many promotions with presents, gifts and prizes – we really enjoy the process! :)

Looking back, we want to summarize – there was a lot of networking and communication, making friends and laughing.



More;
https://fbs.com/news/grand-event-malaysia

[riki143]

Gold: bulls are trying to restore the trend
2/16/2017

On the daily chart of gold, bulls held the level of $1220. At the present moment, they are trying to restore the uptrend. To continue their rally in the direction of $1280 they will need to test the convergence area located at $1250-1257. The inability of buyers to consolidate around the February high will be a signal of their weakness.



On the hourly chart of gold, to retest support at $1218 can lead to the formation of expanding wedge pattern. As a result, there might be a correction in the direction of $1180. The nearest resistance levels are located near the marks of $1244 and $1255.



Recommendations:

SELL $1255 SL $1270 TP $1220,

SELL $1218 SL $1230 TP $1180.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12504

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are setting up a trap
2/16/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the target on the previously opened shorts has been fulfilled (SELL 1,0667 SL 1,0722 TP 1,0535). After that, the bulls gained control over the market. A rebound from the intermediate target 61.8% in the "Shark" pattern allows buyers to develop the correction in direction of 1.0635 and 1.0675 levels. But the technical outlook for the pair is still "bearish", so, there is the rationale of selling the euro on the growth of quotes.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the resistance levels are located near 1.065 and 1.071. These levels correspond to the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from the last upward wave.



Recommendations:

SELL 1,065 SL 1,0705 TP 1,0445,

SELL 1,071 SL 1,0765 TP1 1,053 TP2 1,0445.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12505

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 16
2/16/2017

The US dollar ran out steam in the course of the Asian session as investors took their profits. Wednesday’s US economic data and Fed Chair Yellen testimony lifted the odds for a March hike to 48% from earlier 37%. Coming back to the data, CPI figures for January were really strong; they doubled the market consensus at 0.6%. Well, much of these gains reflects petrol prices’ rally, but the core data also rose strongly to 0.3% which takes the annual rate to 2.3%. The CPI gives a good indication for the PCE measure closely watched by the Fed when it sets interest rate. A rule of thumb – the PCE is usually 0.5% less than the CPI which makes the annual core PCE to 1.8%. It’s very close to the Fed’s coveted target, isn’t it? The US retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing index were also very strong. The latter one spiked to 18.7 which is well above the consensus figures (7.0). Yellen’s testimony before Congress offered no additional insight on the timing of the next rate hike. She simply reiterated the points she made on Tuesday to the Senate. Today’s focus will be on the US construction data, unemployment claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing.

The euro edged up to 1.0620 on the session. USD/JPY slid to 113.40 from yesterday’s high at around 114.50 although there were no significant data releases or news.

The Australian jobs report was in the spotlight today. The headline was upbeat signaling a tepid recovery of the labor market. Aussie jumped to almost 0.7700 on the data and maintained in that area without many further advances.

NZD/USD also went higher in the course of the Asian session having risen to 0.7175. You should closely watch New Zealand retail sales figures coming at 11:45 pm MT time.

Loonie gathered momentum and gained some point against the greenback. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3030. Yesterday’s Canadian manufacturing sales release was supportive to CAD. The economic calendar for USD/CAD is light with the focus on the US data releases. Oil prices decelerated their pace. Brent was flat at $55.75, US crude dipped to $53 levels.

GBP/USD experienced a modest upsurge on the session. It rose to 1.2480 having partially pared its earlier losses. The market participants still wait for the details on the timing of the formal Brexit. Senior government officials expect PM Theresa May to make the announcement on March 9 – March 10 at the EU summit in Brussels right after the final vote on the bill in the House of Lords on March 7.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12506

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie on local highs
2/16/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7660/70, 0.7690; resistance – 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7690; SL — 0.7670; TP1 — 0.7780; TP2 — 0.7840.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the rising lines; the prices are on the new local highs.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12508

[riki143]

USD/JPY: market supported by Kijun and Cloud
2/16/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.90, 113.60; resistance – 114.30, 114.80.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.90; SL — 113.60; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 114.80.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12509

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" launched bullish correction
2/16/2017



The price faced a support at 1.0522, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578.



There’s a “V-Bottom”, which led to the current upward correction. Bulls found a resistance on the 55 Moving Average, but the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0655 – 1.0658. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12510

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance
2/16/2017



Bears faced a support at 1.2386, so there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2548. If a pullback from this area happens, the price will probably try to test the 89 Moving Average.



We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is consolidating under the 34 Moving Average. In this case, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2538 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2486 -1.2458.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12511

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, February 16th
2/16/2017

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 171 762 ? + 256 923 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0630; 1.0665; 1.0692; 1.0726
Closest support levels 1.0600; 1.0574; 1.0558; 1.0535
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long EUR/USD above 1.0630, with target points at 1.0665 and 1.0692
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0600 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0574 and 1.0558

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 89 ? + 560 ?
Closest resistance levels 114.19; 114.52; 114.69; 114.92
Closest support levels 113.55; 113.28; 112.92; 112.51
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.55, with target points at 113.28 and 112.92
Alternative scenario Moving above 114.19 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 114.52 and 114.69

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 252 ? - 27 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3084; 1.3104; 1.3125; 1.3161
Closest support levels 1.3031; 1.2994; 1.2945; 1.2882
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3031, with the target points at 1.2994 and 1.2945
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3084 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3104 and 1.3125

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12512

[riki143]

Trading strategy with fractals
2/16/2017

Fractals are the technical tools helping to predict a reversal of the dominant trend. A fractal pattern consists of 5 consecutive bars positioned in the predefined order. There are two types of fractals.



Bearish fractal

A reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend occurs when the highest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and the two bars with lower highs on each side.

Bullish fractal

A reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend occurs when the lowest bar is positioned in the middle of the pattern with the two higher lows on each side.

Fractals are known as breakout points since they highlight the points at which prices fail to hold and reverse. Fractals are very useful trading tools that help to identify powerful resistance and support levels. Also, they are very handy in the lineation of trends.

There is a countless number of trading strategies using fractals for confirmation of the trend, for identification of the trend reversals. In this article, we decided to present one of the most effective trading strategies in which fractals are used to pinpoint profitable entries.

“Key ingredients”

Timeframe – hourly charts are preferable, but you can also use this strategy on the daily, weekly, 4H timeframes.

Currency pairs – no specific recommendations; the strategy suits to all currency crosses.

Trading session – any

Trading tools:

50 exponential moving average (thereafter 50 EMA)

Bill Williams Fractal indicator

“Rules of the game”



For short trades:




prices are moving below the 50 EMA;
a bearish fractal should be formed near the 50 EMA line;
look for a formation of the bearish candlestick pattern or any other signal to confirm the trade before going short at the close of the fifth bar;
if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open short position at the close of the fifth bar and place stop loss 33 pips above the middle candlestick (the highest point of the fractal pattern).

For long trades:




prices are moving above the 50 EMA;
a bullish fractal should be formed in the vicinity of the 50 EMA line;
use a bullish candlestick pattern for confirmation of your trade before going long;
if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open long position and place stop loss 3 pips below the fractal candlestick (the lowest point in the fractal pattern).


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12500

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a resistance
2/16/2017



We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers”. Moreover, there’s a “Window”, which is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the next “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.



There’s a “Hanging Man” on the 89 Moving Average, but this pattern has a weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test the 144 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12515

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window"
2/16/2017



We’ve got a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing” on the upper “Window”. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards a resistance on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement.



The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bearish “Three Methods” pattern here. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support on the nearest “Window” during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12516

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] on the way
2/16/2017



Wave [i] has been formed, so the price is rising. Previously wave 2 was ended like a zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level.



As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bearish impulse in wave [i]. Meanwhile, wave [ii] is probably taking form of a zigzag. In this case, wave (a) is likely going to end during the day, so there’s an opportunity to have wave (b) soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12518

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830
2/16/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830
Next buy target – 1.4270

EUR/CAD continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the strong support level 1.3830 (which reversed the previous impulse wave (i) with the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, as can be seen from the weekly EUR/CAD chart below). The upward reversal from this support level stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii) from last December.

Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4270 (which reversed the pair in January).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12520

[riki143]

CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone
2/16/2016

CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 0.7600

CAD/CHF continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the powerful resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 0.7720 (which stopped the previous waves (2), (ii) and 2, as can be seen from the daily CAD/CHF charts below) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. If the price closes today near the current levels it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Double Doji Evening Star.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 0.7720.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12521

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound made friends with Wolfe waves
2/17/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the triangle was formed. If quotes go beyond its upper boundary, it will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.26. In contrast, a successful test of the lower boundary of the triangle will send quotes towards 1.235.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the signals we got from the Wolfe waves are realizing. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2516 can lead to the realization of 113% target in the "Shark" pattern. It is located near the 1.26 mark. There is a 1-4 wave near this target which indicates the presence of the convergence zone and creates prerequisites for the rebound.



Recommendation: SELL 1,26 SL 1,2655 TP 1,246.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12523

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears-bulls 5-0
2/17/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is an implementation of the 5-0 pattern. After the correction at 50% level of the CD wave, the pair returned to the "bearish" trend. To restore it, sellers need to test the support at 0.985.



On the USD/CHF daily chart, due to the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern, there was a change of the trend. The angle of slope has increased 1.5 times, and the breakout of the trendline at the intermediate stage and at the stage of splash freed bears' hands.



Recommendation: SELL 1,002 SL 1,0075 TP 0,9916.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12524

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 17
2/17/2017

Market participants had a peeve on the US dollar overnight after it weakened in the currency space despite the upbeat economic release. The greenback was softer mainly because of the US Treasury yields came off their recent highs. USD/JPY dropped to 113.00 after the pair almost approached the 115.00 threshold. Earlier this morning the USD managed to gather its momentum having edged to 113.40 level. If USD/JPY manages to reclaim its positions at around 114.60, it will be a signal of a considerable weakness of the yen.

Some spicy expressions from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer

He refused to unlock the Fed’s secrets about the number of hikes this year but said that the observable activity in the labor market and heightened inflation rates are consistent with the Fed’s projections. Stanley Fischer put an emphasis on the gradual rate increase, keeping hopes of a near-term hike alive, especially if next month’s payrolls data is strong.

The euro hiked to 1.0680 overnight against USD but failed to consolidate its positions there having slipped some points in the early hour of the Asian session. This session is poised to be subdued since today’s economic calendar is very light.

GBP/USD was a winner earlier this morning having risen circa 1.2510. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2520 (near the 100MA on the H4 timeframe) may push the quotes higher towards the resistance at 1.2710. The Sterling focus will be the release of the January retail sales report (11:30 MT time). After a disappointing December data, the market braced up for OK figures for January. If the release is in line with market’s expectation, the pound will gain a modest support.

Aussie rallied to fresh highs at 0.7730 overnight on the upbeat Australian labor market report but failed to stay in that area for a long time closing the day in red around 0.7685. In the Asian session, AUS/USD managed to pare its earlier losses having advanced to 0.7710 level. A further upsurge is a bit problematic. We would be waiting for a correction as the pair approaches 0.7770 level (September 2016 high).

USD/CAD went lower on the session. The pair might continue moving sideways in the narrow range of 1.3050 – 1.3080 levels trying to define its further direction. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian foreign securities purchases ( coming at 15:30 MT time). Brent oil futures built some gains having risen to $55.70 in the past sessions on the positive sentiments over reports that OPEC members may consider extending the timing of their output-reduction agreement. Keep an eye on the weekly US Baker-Hughes oil rig count numbers coming tonight. In the absence of the significant releases, it may become a real market trigger for oil prices and for USD/CAD currency pair.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12525

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls tested Cloud’s resistance
2/17/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0690, 1.0710.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0640; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0690; TP2 – 1.0710.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; the prices are near the Cloud’s resistance.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12526

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound returned to positive area
2/17/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2490; resistance – 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2490; SL — 1.2470; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12527

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance
2/17/2017

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12529/17-2-2017-EUR-H4.png[/IG]

There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0684, but the market is likely going to continue moving up, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.0713 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0632.



The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0684. At the same time, bulls are likely going to push the pair even higher during the day. If a pullback from a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.0669 – 1.0658.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12529

[riki143]

GBP/USD: price going to go around in a circle
2/17/2017



Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2509, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581. However, if we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an option to have a downward price movement towards a support at 1.2465 – 1.2432.



All Moving Average have been broken. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2538 – 1.2548 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, bears will have a green light to reach a support at 1.2509 – 1.2486.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12530

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

The EUR/GBP currency pair rose in the course of the past week feeding on the BoE’s pledge not to raise the interest rate for an extended period of time. The euro got an additional boost from the miss on the UK monthly retail sales data. The figures added to evidence that the long-awaited squeeze in household spending is materializing as the purchasing power of the UK citizens keeps eroding by surging prices. That may hurt an economy that relies heavily on consumers for growth.

We expect the euro to extend its gains next week despite Draghi being dovish in the January ECB meeting, undying talks on the QE tapering and political risks in some Eurozone countries ahead. Manufacturing data from the key Eurozone countries are expected on Tuesday. The previous figures were supportive for EUR and this time the same may happen. The UK economic calendar is light with the only focus on the second estimate of GDP coming on Wednesday at 4:30 am MT time.

The near-term technical outlook for the pair is bullish. The resistance at 0.8640, 0.8710 and 0.8860 (23.6% Fibo retracement level from the June 24, 2016 low) represent immediate hurdles above which the cross will unlikely manage to extend its gains. In the case of the reversal at aforementioned levels, the pair might be ready to test the supports located at 0.8540 (50-day MA), 0.8460 (200-day MA) and 0.8420 (50% Fibo retracement level).



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12532

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

US dollar index rose to 101.75 during the past week before returning back to 100.55 area.

Economic data released in the US were mixed. January CPI, PPI, retail sales, building permits and Philly Fed manufacturing index exceeded forecast, although industrial production disappointed.

The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the regulator could cause a recession if it waited too long to raise interest rates. This statement surprised the market given the sluggish wage growth and the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s presidency. The market players still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year and this is diminishing USD strength. The resignation of the US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn did provoke investors’ concerns. However, Trump did promise to unveil a "phenomenal" tax plan in the coming weeks. Hopes of fiscal stimulus should provide the US dollar with some support.

US markets will be closed on Monday because of the bank holiday. On Tuesday, we’ll hear further comments from the Fed: Kashkari and Harker, who are both voting FOMC members this year, will speak. On Wednesday, American central bank will release the minutes of its recent meeting as well as the existing home sales data. Last time the Fed’s statement was more dovish than the market has expected. It contrasts with the recent more hawkish tone of Yellen, so traders will be paying much attention to the minutes to find out the opinions of other Fed members. On Thursday, there will be unemployment claims and the US crude oil inventories and on Friday America will publish new home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment figures.

DXY failed to close above the 50-day MA (101.36) and it formed a shooting star candle next to this line. The weekly close below this line will make the greenback vulnerable for a decline to 100.10 (100-day MA) and 99.50/99.26. Further resistance is at 102.00.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12533

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

EUR/USD dipped as low as to 1.0520.

Economic data released in the euro area were mostly negative. GBP growth slowed down from 0.5% in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4. The region’s industrial production contracted more than expected in December, and ZEW economic sentiment missed the forecast. The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest monetary policy meeting showed that the regulator isn’t planning to dial back on monetary stimulus.

In addition, market players keep following developments in France. The positions of the conservative candidate Francois Fillon keep worsening as the investigation into the fake work scandal continues. Although Marine Le Pen, who supports Frexit, is not likely to win the overall elections, political factors will still limit the euro’s upside.

Moreover, the pair is certainly very sensitive to the things happening in America. USD dollar events represent the pair’s primary drivers. As for the European economic calendar, there will be a release of flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Tuesday. German Ifo business climate, as well the region’s final CPI are due on Wednesday. The release of German consumer climate is scheduled on Thursday.

The pair formed a hammer and managed to close above the 50-day MA above 1.0600. The euro still has met resistance at 1.0680 (weekly pivot, Jan. 12 high). Another significant resistance is located around 1.0715 (Jan. 17 high) and 1.0730 (100-day MA) ahead of 1.0775. All in all, support around 1.0500 (late November lows) is very strong. It’s reasonable to expect longer consolidating above this area.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12534

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

In line with our expectations GBP/USD spent the week consolidating between 1.2380 and 1.2550.

The topic of Brexit is temporarily on the sidelines, ready to resurface later this month. Economic data released in the UK mostly disappointed. CPI growth was a bit lower than expected, while the growth pace of average earnings declined. British retail sales also contracted in January.

The most important releases of the upcoming days include public sector net borrowing on Tuesday and second estimate GDP and prelim business investment on Wednesday.

The bears made another assault on the 100- and 50-day MAs just above 1.2400, but failed to keep the pair below these lines. On H4 the 200-period MA once again acted as good support (currently at 1.2400). The moving averages here are horizontal. Note though that the pair’s range is getting narrower, that means that the breakout of the current ranges is coming closer. Looking at the series of lower highs we assume that the pound is more vulnerable to the downside than to the upside. Below 1.2400 we’ll target 1.2345 and 1.2260.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12535

[riki143]

Gold: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

Gold futures soared to $1242.80 per ounce in the course of the past week having posted their seventh weekly gain in eight weeks. Much of this rally has been based on the looming elections in Europe, political uncertainty in the US over tax cuts and the UK separation with the EU. The US stocks unprecedently keep pace with the yellow metal futures having spiked to their highest levels in three years. Some analysts send alerts to the investors saying that the safe-haven asset might be vulnerable as the US equities remain near their record high. If the US dollar pares its recent losses helped by promised fiscal stimuli and hawkish comments from the Fed’s officials, the precious metal will be sent to the negative area.

Next week beware of potential threat coming from the FOMC meeting minutes that should be released on Wednesday. If the minutes show the Fed’s readiness for rate hikes, gold futures are poised to slide downwards. The rest of the week shouldn’t bring lots of disturbances to the chart.

In the meantime, the technical picture for the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold futures nudged above the important resistance located at $1242.20 (near 200MA on the weekly timeframe). A move above the $1255.60 resistance level (61.8% Fibo retracement level from the high seen after Trump’s victory) can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the next hurdle at $1262.70 (200-day MA). In the case of the reversal, the prices may slide towards the supports at $1230.25 (50% Fibo level + the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe), $ 1205.05 (38.2% Fibo retracement level).



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12536

[riki143]

EUR/USD: upper "Window" going to act as a resistance
2/17/2017



There’s a “Tower” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement.



We’ve got a “Hanging Man” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support level during the day.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12539

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver a correction
2/17/2017



The last “Tweezers” and “Engulfing” pushed the market lower. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a local bullish rally.



We’ve got a “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local bullish correction towards the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12540

[riki143]

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave [ii]
2/17/2017



There’s a bearish impulse in wave [i]. Previously, wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag. So, we could have wave [ii] soon. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level.



We’ve got a possible bullish impulse in wave (a), so the price is declining in wave (b). If we see a pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (c) of [ii].

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12541

[riki143]

EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730
2/17/2017

EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730
Next buy target – 1.4000
EUR/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the powerful long-term support level 1.3730 (which also previously reversed the price multiple times at the start of 2015, as can be seen below). The support zone near the support level 1.3730 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band. If the pair closes this week near the current levels it will form the weekly Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Hammer.

Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/AUD is likely to correct up further to the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12542

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
2/17/2017

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0000
AUD/CAD recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed earlier waves (B), (1) and 1), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.85 Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of November. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January.

AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0000 (which reversed the previous minor correction 2).



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12543

[riki143]

USD/CAD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

The greenback was trading almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart at the end of the past week, with USD/CAD consolidating in the range of 1.3005 – 1.3120. Monday’s Trump-Trudeau joint press conference was reassuring for the Canadian dollar, as the US President advocated the strengthening of the US-Canada trade ties. On Valentine’s day, the greenback was Yellen-kissed as the Fed’s Chair hinted at a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Towards the end of the week, the US dollar ran out of steam having ceded ground to loonie. The underlying fundamentals, however, still favor a higher USD/CAD with March FOMC hike odds marching higher and the BoC’s rate increases hardly seen on the horizon.

This week, we would recommend you to focus on the Canadian retail sales and CPI data as the CAD is becoming more and more decoupled from crude oil dynamics and yield differentials between the US and Canadian money markets.

The technical picture for the USD/CAD is neutral. The quotes are ranging in the narrow band of 1.2995 – 1.3180 levels (upper and lower Bollinger bands on H4 timeframe). Relying on the USD/CAD fundamentals, we would bet on the USD appreciation towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3140 (200-day MA), 1.3178 and 1.3230 (50-day MA). On the downside, a few supports can be found at 1.3040 and 1.2995 levels, and in a longer-term at 1.2895.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12531

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

USD/JPY managed to test resistance close to 115.00 as Trump didn’t criticize currency Japan’s policy at the latest meeting with Shinzo Abe, but then got rejected lower on the general setback in demand for the greenback.

The pair formed a shooting star candle against the 50-day MA. The force of this resistance has thus increased. However, the US dollar will have support around 112.50 (here was a buying interest in January). As long as the pair stays above this point, we’ll be looking for the opportunities for long positions. Below 112.50 focus on support at 111.40 and then 109.90.

Japan’s GDP growth slowed down from 0.3% in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4, although industrial production increased more than expected in December. Japan will release trade balance figures on Monday and flash manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. In addition, don’t forget to watch US data and FOMC meeting minutes. Finally, remember that USD/JPY is sensitive to changes in global risk sentiment. Demand for the safe havens may lead to further decline in USD longs and buying of JPY.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12538