Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

NZD/USD outlook on the back of RBNZ announcement
2/8/2017

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements today at 10:00 pm MT time. The bank will probably hold its official cash rate on hold at 1.75% even though inflation gathers pace faster than the RBNZ expected. The bank officials will most likely be reluctant to raise interest rate any time soon willing to hinder the NZD appreciation and looking for further pieces of evidence of the acceleration of the actual inflation rates. So, at the coming meeting, RBNZ might adopt a wait-and-see approach and remain in its November’s neutral comfort zone for a while. And such accommodative monetary policy stance may result in market's disappointment.

The kiwi spiked to 0.7375 on Tuesday but failed to hold its positions or rise further. As a result, a bearish shooting star has been formed leading to the retracement in short-term. There are several supports on the downside located at 0.7270 (the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe), 0.7245 (100-day MA), that won’t allow kiwi to slide to the bottom. The upcoming RBNZ rate announcement may bring lots of choppiness to the chart which eventually might not result in any gains or losses.IMG]

More:
[UURL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388[/URL]

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, February 8th
2/8/2017

EUR/USD




Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 35 706 ? + 66 233 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0710; 1.0734; 1.0756; 1.0793
Closest support levels 1.0659; 1.0639; 1.0615; 1.0586
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0659, with target points at 1.0639 and 1.0615
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0710 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0734 and 1.0756


USD/JPY




Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 475 ? + 657 ?
Closest resistance levels 112.31; 112.50; 112.80; 113.02
Closest support levels 111.86; 111.68; 111.35; 110.85
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.31, with target points at 112.50 and 112.80
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.86 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.68 and 111.35


USD/CAD




Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 75 ? + 177 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3205; 1.3233; 1.3273; 1.3324
Closest support levels 1.3153; 1.3125; 1.3106; 1.3080
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3153, with the target points at 1.3125 and 1.3106
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3205 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3233 and 1.3273

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12389

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a support
2/8/2017



The price is continue declining, so bears faced a support on the lower “Window”. The market is likely going to try to break this “Window” in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.



We’ve got a developing bearish candle in a range of the “Window”. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12391

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a resistance
2/8/2017



There’re a “Tower” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could bring any bullish pattern. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.



We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low one more time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12392

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [i] is on the way
2/8/2017



The price has been declining since wave 2 was ended in a form of a zigzag. Previously a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, bears are likely going to break 7/8 MM Level in the short term.



There’s an extension in wave (iii), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave iv. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (iii) afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12393

[riki143]

Review on George Soros's book
2/8/2017



“Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is the truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.”
― George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance

This phrase succinctly explains the meaning of the book's title. The primary objective of trading is to unravel the behavioral pattern of other market participants for generation of maximum profit.

George Soros is best remembered as a speculator who tilted against the Bank of England in 1992. Traders thrust a status of a financial guru upon him. Some people will remember him for his philanthropical conducts. This article was written to present George Soros as a man notable for his crackling wit exerted in the book The Alchemy of Finance.

In this writing, the author explains the philosophical underpinning of his approach to financial markets, widely known as the theory of reflexivity. Its main position states as follows: investor’s and trader’s biases can change the fundamentals that assist in determining market prices. According to Mr. Soros, the direction of market prices is determined by market participants, their prevailing expectations. And financial success can be achieved by those who can recognize the dominant patterns in the behavior of market participants. The latter ones cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy; they make presumptions, formulate various hypotheses about how the events will unfold and then submit them to the test engaging in the financial markets’ operations. Prices are mere reflections of the dominant strand of thought in the markets; they foreshadow events, but don’t shape them. If the prevailing view in relation to a certain event is wrong the prices change their direction and adjust to the actual situation.

In his book, George Soros describes his own decision-making process. First, he makes a projection with regard to a certain event and then tries it on practice. All his forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments. Mr. Soros admits that his predictions are not always consistent with the actual course of events; sometimes his perceptions are flawed. His approach is not to make valid predictions, but to be able to sort out the false ones with the help of the market action mechanism. If you want to know more about Soros’s strategy of trading, read the Alchemy of Finance. For many successful traders, this book has become a desk companion, a plentiful source of inspiration and confidence. Even our old friend Paul Tudor Jones II in his foreword to the first edition of “The Alchemy of Finance” says that he constantly refers to Soros’s writing to regain self-reliance when he enters the inevitable losing streak.

DOWNLOAD THE BOOK

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12394

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00
2/8/2017

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00
Next sell targets – 81.00 and 80.50
NZD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 82.50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – leading to the subsequent breakout of the next support level 82.00 (previous sell target set for this currency pair).

NZD/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 81.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 80.50 (low of the previous correction (ii)).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12395

[riki143]

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700
2/8/2017

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700
Next sell target - 1.4400
EUR/NZD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the key support level 1.4700 (which reversed the previous impulse waves 1 and (i), as can be seen from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the extended intermediate impulse sequence (3) from last October.

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4400. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the aforementioned price level 1.4700.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12396

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls are losing their interest
2/9/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears managed to return quotes to the support at 0.7605. A breakout of this support can lead to the correction towards the 0.754 level. Alternatively, a rise of prices above the 0.7665 level can lead to the restoration of the trend and fulfillment of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern.



On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a consolidation within the uptrend. A successful test of the support at 0.7605 will allow Aussie to return to the 0.7515-0.7605 range. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to raise quotes above the resistance at 0.769.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12401

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Wolf Waves will indicate a further path for the yen
2/9/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation within the mid-term upward trend. The nearest resistance level is located at the 112.5 level. A successful test of this resistance will allow quotes to return to the previous trading range located at 112.5-114. The support can be found near the 111.15 mark (38.2% level of the last upward medium term wave).



On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of Wolf waves. A breakout of the diagonal resistance at 112.45 will allow opening long positions in direction of 114.55. There is a 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern.



Recommendation: BUY 112,45 SL 111,90 TP1 113,35 TP2 114,55.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12402

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 9
2/9/2017

Kiwi skidded to 0.7190 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement and Governor wheeler’s press conference. The market has been pricing for 1.5 hikes from the RBNZ over the upcoming 12 months after heightened Q4 inflation figures, but the RBNZ made it clear that it is not planning any hikes until 2019. The bank’s officials noted that the present value of NZD is not sustainable for balanced growth, so, they will try to talk it down in the process.

It seems that NZD weakness was carried over to the Aussie as it dipped to 0.7610 in the course of the session having ended it with a modest gain (moved higher to 0.7625 after downfall). Earlier today, we got a NAB business confidence survey that was a bit weaker than the Q3 update. The tone of the survey was rather positive indicating solid investment intentions and adequate long-term employment expectations. So, AUD reacted with a blip on the technical chart. Later today, traders will be watching the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaking at the A50 Australian Economic Forum.

The US dollar has clawed back a tad against the euro in the early hours of the Asian session. EUR/USD retraced to 1.0680 on the tantalizing prospects of corporate tax reductions, deregulations from Trump’s administration and French election jitters. The latest Institut français d'opinion publique poll shows Macron winning in the second round against le Pen 64:36 because of the two-round system requiring the broad-based support to become the next president. But this doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, as the National Front leader is ahead in polling for the first ballot that is expected on April 23. Today’s focus will be on the US unemployment claims and FOMC member Evans’s speech. Chicago Fed President Evans seems comfortable with multiple hikes this year; so, we might expect some support for the US dollar from his comments.

GBP/USD slid to 1.2595 on the session. The Brexit bill passed by the House of Commons overnight and now it is heading to the unelected Housed of Lords with the final vote to be delivered on March 7. At the time being, Theresa May is meeting her self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50 by the end of March.

USD/CAD retraced to 1.3140 in the course of the Asian session mainly on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures spearheaded on Wednesday after the US crude inventories data indicated an unexpected drop.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12403

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound keep staying in Cloud
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the top border of the Cloud.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12404

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel again
2/9/2017

Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines SSA and SSB are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are in channel of Tenkan-Kijun.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12405

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls pushing the market higher
2/9/2017



Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2548, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.



The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2548. Meanwhile, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2486 – 1.2458. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12408

[riki143]

Trade signal from NAB
2/9/2017



The NAB’s technical analysts draw our attention to the AUD/USD weekly chart. There is a bullish reversal pattern formed in the beginning of this year. Another bullish signal – a crossover of 50 MA and 100 MA on the weekly timeframe. There is a number of long-term resistance lines on the Aussie’s upside path located at 0.7730 (the ascending trendline) and at 0.7778/0.7835 (last year highs). They represent rather difficult hurdles to overcome to establish a more sustainable bullish trend.

Weekly RSI line overcame two key trend lines last week which is a powerful confirmation of the bank’s bullish signal. A weekly close above aforementioned 0.7730- 0.7750 range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 2016 highs and ultimately towards 0.8150/0.8300 in the long-term.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12409

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, February 9th
2/9/2017

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 41 518 ? + 451 586 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0723; 1.0746; 1.0784; 1.0811
Closest support levels 1.0698; 1.0679; 1.0656; 1.0638
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0698, with target points at 1.0679 and 1.0656
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0699 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0746

GBP/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 755 ? + 22 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2581; 1.2608; 1.2625; 1.2645
Closest support levels 1.2528; 1.2506; 1.2487; 1.2437
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2581, with target points at 1.2608 and 1.2625
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2528 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2506 and 1.2487

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 311 ? + 107 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3154; 1.3179; 1.3196; 1.3226
Closest support levels 1.3135; 1.3108; 1.3082; 1.3046
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3154, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3196
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3135 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3082

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12410

[riki143]

7 imminent risks you should worry about
2/9/2017



The biggest threats to portfolio/financial accounts you should beware of

1. Bonds

Many asset managers see the hazard on the bond side. The bond yields reached historically low in July 2016; then, the yields on government bonds skyrocketed due to the upbeat macroeconomic releases and uptick in inflation rates. Surging yields hurt investors holding the debt and raise financing costs for companies.

2. US Dollar

The resurgence of the US and European economies marks the end of the global economic crisis lasting for almost 10 consecutive years. The danger now is an unexpected rally in bond yields coupled with a significant upsurge in the US dollar exchange rate. It can be very disruptive for markets especially for the emerging ones because investors would rather favor US assets than risk-taking developing markets’ currencies. Strong greenback hurts the country’s exporters and decreases corporate profits.

3. Trump’s policies

Market participants can be grossly disappointed once Trump’s expansionary policies are not realized. Increased spending, tax cuts, and deregulation policies have already well priced in my market participants.

4. China

China could be the biggest threat to global economic and market stability. The economic growth of the country may eventually slow down. Another key risk to the Chinese economy in 2017 and 2018 is the possibility that faster than expected U.S. interest rate increases could intensify Chinese capital outflows posing additional pressure on China's financial system and exposing it to a debt crisis. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year; the number is expected to exceed 300% of GDP in the next 2 years.

5. The Fed

The Fed can be more hawkish than the market expects if the US steps into the inflationary spiral. Heightened inflation rates could prompt the Fed to raise the interest rates more often. This would decelerate the US economic growth rates and dent investor appetite for risk assets.

6. Europe

Upcoming elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands potentially leading to the victory of anti-establishment candidates place a downside pressure on the euro and strengthen the US dollar. Also, there is a chance of early elections in Italy. The Apennine Peninsula also has its populist movements (greeting to Five Star Movement).

7. Australia

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has recently placed financial stability at the forefront of monetary policy. Homeowners, property investors and consumers around Australia started to refer to financial helplines as three warning signs pick up the demand: lenders’ bad debt provisions have increased mortgage arrears are increasing, personal insolvencies are at their highest levels. Australians’ private debt spiked to 187% of their income encouraged by low-interest rates. Australia’s households are probably ones of the most indebted in the world with $1 trillion of mortgages amid a housing boom that spread in various parts of the country. Australia was almost deprived of its AAA rating in December. Now, it should face this debt problem until it is too late.

The realization of at least one of the aforementioned scenarios can spur a chain reaction potentially leading to the new financial crashes or global economic crises.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12411

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
2/9/2017



We’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a bullish “Three Methods”. So, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point to a local upward price movement.



There’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12413

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/9/2017



The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Tower” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline.



The last “Doji” and “Tower” patterns led to the current upward price movement. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12415

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish extension
2/9/2017



We’ve got a possible zigzag in wave 2, so the price is declining in wave [i]. Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction.



There’s a possible extension in wave (iii). Therefore, wave v of (iii) is likely going to be continued. If a pullback from 0/8 MM Level arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (iv).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12416

[riki143]

NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
2/9/2017

NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400
Next sell target – 0.7120

NZD/USD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous intermediate (B)-wave in November and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Shooting Star.

NZD/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7120 (which reversed the price in the middle of January and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from December).



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12417

[riki143]

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
2/9/2017

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600
Next buy target - 1.0650

AUD/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the resistance level 1.0550 (which reversed the previous waves B and (ii), as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January.

Having just broken the resistance level 1.0600 - AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0650 (former monthly high from November).



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12418

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie is wandering in the channels
2/10/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, Wolf wave are still relevant. The diagonal line of resistance shifted lower due to the formation of a new fractal. A necessary condition for the restoration of "bullish" trend is the successful test of 1.3220 and 1.3305 levels. The nearest support can be found near the 1.3 level.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 1.315 followed by the quotes' exit from the descending trading channel will allow "bulls" to regain their confidence. But first, they will have to keep quotes above the 1.3125 mark (38.2% level of the AB wave).



Recommendation: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP 1,3305.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12421

[riki143]

Gold isn't afraid of the correction
2/10/2017

On the daily chart of gold "bulls" failed to attack the resistance located at $1,241. The rollback sent quotes towards the support at $1,220. If it is tested successfully, bears may count on the movement towards the upward trading channel.



On the hourly chart of gold, the trendline in the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern has been broken. The correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel is likely to continue.



Recommendation: BUY $1206 SL $1190 TP $1235.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12422

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 10
2/10/2017

The trade was reignited overnight after the US President flagged an impending tax announcement within two or three weeks. The markets took a new lease of life waiting for more details on Trump’s fiscal plans. In addition, US Appeals Court upheld the suspension of Trump’s immigration ban having said that the new administration failed to offer ground evidence that national security is threatened. The ruling was a positive input for the US markets as it justified the dominance of law over poorly framed whims of the executive branch of power. The euro retraced to 1.0645 against the US dollar still being pressured by political concerns over France’s presidential elections.

USD/JPY spearheaded on Thursday and extended its gains in the course of the Asian session. Today’s focus will be Abe-Trump meeting. Japan’s prime minister will propose talks on trade, security, macroeconomic issues. In addition, Abe will try to convince Trump in the purity of Bank of Japan’s undertakings. USD/JPY rose to 113.70 on the back of the meeting.

The Australian dollar traded higher in the early hours of the Asian session after a rather sanguine RBA’s monetary policy statement. Chinese upbeat trade balance data released earlier this morning nudged Aussie a little higher to 0.7640.

Aussie’s strength was handed over to kiwi. NZD took a baby step in the northern direction against its US counterpart. Yesterday NZD/USD slumped 0.7170 after Reserve bank of New Zealand put the kybosh on the possibility of rate hikes in 2017. Further elucidation of Trump’s fiscal policies will pressure the kiwi’s upward movement.

GBP/USD dipped to 1.2500 on the Asian session on the strengthening of the greenback. Today’s focus will be on the UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance data and the US University Michigan consumer confidence index.

USD/CAD was trading choppily in the course of the past session. For the present moment, the pair is hovering around the 1.3140 showing readiness to shoot in either direction. Traders should keep an eye on the Canadian labor data coming at 3:30 pm MT time. Brent futures extended its gains having risen to $55.75 from yesterday’s low at $55.20. The oil prices were bolstered by evidence that the gasoline demand could strengthen in the nearest future. Keeping the focus on the oil there are two pieces of data investors should be aware of – monthly oil report of the International Energy Agency and the Baker Hughes rig count.


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12423

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support
2/10/2017



The price is still consolidating near the broken uptrend. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0619 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697.



We’ve got a “Double Top”, so the price reached a support at 1.0655. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.0640 – 1.0619. However, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12424

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro testing SSB again
2/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0660; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770.

Reason: Ichimoku Cloud changed the character; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are still in correction and on support of Senkou Span B.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12425

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie still on the Cloud
2/10/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12426

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to decline
2/10/2017



The price faced a resistance at 1.2599. Meanwhile, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which pushed the pair to the 34 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to test a support area between the 89 Moving Average and the level 1.2432. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599.



The pair is consolidating near a support at 1.2486. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2458 – 1.2432 during the day. However, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably do their best to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12427

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, February 10th
2/10/2017

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 38 465 ? + 22 229 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0677; 1.0698; 1.0723; 1.0767
Closest support levels 1.0656; 1.0623; 1.0603; 1.0577
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0656, with target points at 1.0623 and 1.0603
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0677 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0698 and 1.0723

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 1 540 ? + 1 370 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.79; 114.19; 114.47; 114.80
Closest support levels 113.17; 112.87; 112.56; 112.07
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.79, with target points at 114.19 and 114.47
Alternative scenario Moving below 113.17 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.87 and 112.56

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 64 ? + 244 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3135; 1.3161; 1.3182; 1.3212
Closest support levels 1.3110; 1.3072; 1.3040; 1.2995
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3135, with the target points at 1.3161 and 1.3182
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3130 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3110 and 1.3072

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12428

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for February 13-17
2/10/2017

GBP/USD has firmed at the end of last week on the upbeat macroeconomic data from the UK and the relative weakness of the US dollar. Having lost around a fifth of its value in recent years, the pound has become tempered by bad news and very responsive to good news. So, the swift passage of the Brexit bill through the lower chamber of the Parliament left the pound intact. In contrast, the hawkish comments from MPC member Forbes and Friday’s strong economic releases boosted the sterling’s upsurge. All in all, the formal triggering of Article 50 should result in the additional dip in GBP.

Next week will bring us inflation reports from the both sides of the Atlantic. Janet Yellen is expected to shed some light on the future path of the Fed’s rate hikes on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will be glued to the screens struggling to decipher her message to the House Financial Services Committee. Any hawkish comments from the Fed’s Chair will be supportive for the greenback. If Trump announces the details of his tax plans next week, it will lead to further appreciation of the US dollar.

GBP/USD keeps consolidating in a broad range between 1.27 and 1.2430. The pound has to rise above Thursday’s high at 1.2580 to test the top of this range. A number of fundamental factors that we have specified earlier might send sterling lower towards the nearest supports located at 1.2415 (50-day MA), 1.2370 (200-H4 MA) and 1.23.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12429

[riki143]

NZD/USD: outlook for February 13-17
2/10/2017

Kiwi declined after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand killed hopes for a rate hike this year. The Monetary Policy statement noted that exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable and that a depreciation of the kiwi is needed to revive the country’s economic growth. The kiwi slumped to 0.7170 after the announcement but managed to muster its strength on Friday having risen above 0.7190.

Next week the US dollar will be a bellwether of NZD/USD currency pair. On Tuesday, don’t miss the Fed Chair Yellen speaking before the Senate Banking Committee. On the next day, she will testify on the semiannual monetary policy report. Towards the end of the week, traders will be waiting for the New Zealand quarterly retail sales data, US building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims.

The technical outlook for NZD/USD currency pair is neutral. The prices are consolidating in the range of 0.7175-0.7205 after the massive downfall. There is a small room for NZD/USD appreciation towards the nearest resistance lines located at 0.7220, 0.7245 (61.8% Fibo level from September 4 high). On the downside, there is a strong support located at 0.7130 (50% Fibo level). A move below this level would suggest that a deeper pull-back towards 0.7150/0.7130 has started.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12430

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to end
2/10/2017



Wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag, so the price is declining. Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, we could have wave [i] in the short term.



As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an extension in wave (iii). So, if a pullback from 0/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (iv). In this case, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12432

[riki143]

USD/JPY: outlook for February 13-17
2/10/2017

The pair tested the lowest levels since the end of November, but then managed to recover. The Bank of Japan had to increase its buying in "superlong" bonds on Friday in order to keep rising yields in check. Such policy is reining in the yen’s appreciation. At the same time, some experts are concerned that it may become more difficult for the BOJ to take any easing measures in the future – an idea that will likely limit the dollar/yen’s ability to strengthen. There’s also some seasonal negative pressure on the pair because of the JPY cash repatriation by Japanese companies. All in all, we are currently seeing a balance of negative and positive factors for the pair that won’t let it diverge far from the current levels.

Further dynamics of the pair will largely depend on the results of the meeting between the US president Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. To be more precise, it will depend primarily on Trump’s comments after the meeting. If he sounds friendly, the greenback will rise up in relief, but if he’s harsh and criticizes Japan for its currency and trade policy, the US dollar will decline and the yen will go up.

USD/JPY has a support of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud around 111.50. The fate of the pair will be decided near 114.00. Here’s the resistance line from January highs. A weekly close above this mark will open the way to 115.50 and 116.30 (top of the daily Cloud). Otherwise, the dollar will resume its drift lower towards 111.40, 110.55 (100-day MA) and 109.90 (bottom of the daily Cloud).

Japan will release preliminary Q4 GDP on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday. Economists expect a decent reading. In addition, pay attention to the US economic calendar, especially to comments by the Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12433

[riki143]

EUR/USD: outlook for February 13-19
2/10/2017

The pair has moved abruptly down. Political picture for the region looks tense. Investors are still worried that a far-right candidate can win French presidential election and take the county out of the euro area. In addition, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Greece should leave the euro area if it cannot fulfil its bailout commitments.

EUR/USD breached January support line in the 1.07 area and fell to 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance). Below this point the euro will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.06 (50-day MA), 1.0580 (50% Fibo) and 1.0550 (bottom of the daily Cloud). Between 1.0550 and 1.05 there are many support levels formed by late November and early December lows. Here are also the targets of the broken trend channel. Resistance is at 1.0680 and in the 1.0715/25 area.

In the region’s economic calendar there will be many releases on Tuesday (German and the euro area’s Q4 GDP, German economic sentiment and the European economic forecasts). The ECB will publish accounts of its last monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Keep an eye on the news from the US as well – comments of Donald Trump and the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12434

[riki143]

US dollar: outlook for February 13-17
2/10/2017

The US dollar managed to recover during the past week. Positive vibes for the American currency came from the comments of Donald Trump. According to him, he will release a “phenomenal” tax plan in the next few weeks. The market players used to buy USD in November and December on hopes that Trump will take fiscal steps to revive the nation’s economic growth. Then, at the beginning of 2017 traders got disappointed in the US currency as Trump stopped talking about the fiscal stimulus. Now the expectations of higher spending and tax cuts are back, and it’s good for the greenback.

Another important factor for the USD is the Federal Reserve. The greenback fell earlier in February after the less hawkish Fed’s statement. We’ll find out more about the central bank’s intentions when the Chair Janet Yellen testifies on the US economy and monetary policy before the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In addition, pay attention to the upcoming US economic data – release of PPI on Tuesday, CPI, retail sales & industrial production on Wednesday, building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims on Thursday.

A close above 101.00 in the US dollar index will make it form the weekly bullish engulfing pattern. In this case, the target area will be at 101.30 (50-day MA) and 102.00. Support lies around 98.80 (100-day MA).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12435

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from combined support zone
2/10/2017

CAD/JPY reversed from combined support zone
Next buy target – 88.00

CAD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which began earlier – when the pair reversed up from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 85.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the latest daily down channel from December.

CAD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 88.00 (which coincides with the resistance trendline of the aforementioned down channel and which reversed the earlier impulse wave (i) with the daily Shooting Star in January).



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12437

[riki143]

USD/CHF broke above parity
2/10/2017

USD/CHF broke above parity
Next buy target - 1.0100

USD/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the parity. The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the support area lying between the key support level 0.9900, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from November.

USD/CHF is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the parity



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12438

[riki143]

2/11/2017

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We are full of energy to change the world for the better and we are growing professionally year by year. Over three million people worldwide know for sure that FBS is the best Forex broker.

Let’s Celebrate! Send us your birthday wishes on Facebook from February 09th until March 01st 2017 and participate in the raffle of luxury prizes: 10 MacBook Pro, 50 iPad Pro, 50 iPhone7, cash prizes and more!

More:
https://fbs.com/promo/fbsbd8

[riki143]

Fundamentals for trading GBP
2/12/2017



There are many economic releases that influence the pound the most and help us to form a comprehensive view of its further direction.

CPI report

The latest CPI figures beat the market expectations having risen by 1.2% from November’s update. It was the highest inflation rate since July of 2014 boosted by risings costs of transport, housing and utilities amid a weakening pound. The Bank of England expects a rather moderate acceleration of the inflation rate through this year and 2.8% uptick in 2018. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee expressed its readiness to tolerate such pace of price rates allowing the country’s economic growth to gather momentum.

Bank Rate, BOE Inflation Report

These reports have a great impact on the pound’s value. The rate decisions are delivered by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the monthly basis. Sometimes they are accompanied by elaborated statement which sparks traders’ interest and give them clues about the future central bank’s undertakings.

The recent BoE’s report and rate statement sent the pound below 1.2510 from 1.2705. The bank officials voted unanimously to hold the bank rate at a record low of 0.25%. The greatest effect produced an accompanying statement in which policymakers said that they are ready to respond in either direction (to cut or raise interest rate) for the better economic outlook. There was no hint of worries about the heightened inflation rates; the economic growth of the UK took the center stage in the BoE’s monetary policy report.

Gfk Consumer Confidence, Nationwide Consumer Confidence

These surveys gauge the consumers’ readiness to spend/buy in the nearest future, trace whether the country’s citizens are optimistic about the economic or grossly pessimistic. In simple terms, they get inside into consumers’ expectations for the next half of the year. Gfk is designed to reflect the respondent's feelings towards events that happened in the previous 12 months, and their expectations for the next 12 months.

Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Retail Sales, GDP

All these reports are the gauges of the country’s economic growth. The primary measure of economic activity in the UK is the gross domestic product (GDP). There are three different GDP reports traders should be aware of – Preliminary GDP, Revised GDP and Final GDP. The Preliminary GDP estimate is the earliest gauges of the country’s economic health. Therefore, it tends to have the biggest impact on the currency, but at the same time this release is the least accurate; later, it becomes a subject for revision (Revised GDP and Final GDP reports offer a more comprehensive outlook of the UK economy, but they may not expect fireworks from them).

Trade Balance, Current Account

The gauges represent an accounting record of country’s interaction with the rest of the world. The BoP is made up of three accounts, but generally, only the current account is of interest to forex traders. The current account shows the amount of imported and exported products and services, traces the flow of income payments and transfer payments. A current account surplus is positive for the currency and a deficit is negative

Brexit factor

Another fundamental factor that poses significant pressure on the British pound is the Brexit process. After June 23 vote to exit the EU, GBP fell to its historically low levels against the greenback. The renewed weakness followed after Mrs. May set the Brexit deadline (March 31). Once Article 50 is triggered the United Kingdom will start its formal negotiation with the EU on the future relationships. The official exit from the EU should bring lots of new challenges for the British economy. It will have to go through a thorny path of adjustment to the new economic and political environment. Now, we may only guess whether the UK made a right choice exiting the European Union or not. What we can say for sure is that the “Brexit” will be a buzz word for a very long time.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12431