Daily Technical Analysis by ff

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In this thread, I will be giving my daily observations, on various pairs. I will start by USD/JPY
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 13, 2015

In Asia, Japan will release data on the 30-y Bond Auction, PPI y/y and Core Machinery Orders m/m. The US will publish economic news on the Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, JOLTS Job Openings, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.46.

Resistance. 2: 123.22.

Resistance. 1: 122.98.

Support. 1: 122.69.

Support. 2: 122.45.

Support. 3: 122.21.

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Industrial Production m/m, French CPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m is due to be released.The US will publish data on the Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, JOLTS Job Openings, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0820.

Strong Resistance:1.0814.

Original Resistance: 1.0803.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0792.

Target Inner Area: 1.0767.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0742.

Original Support: 1.0731.

Strong Support: 1.0720.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0714.

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Summary:

There is no change in a view here. We continue to look for a break below support at 131.63 confirming a continuation lower to 130.00 and lower to 124.58 as the next target.

However, we are forced to accept more sideways consolidation as long as support at 131.63 gives a way, which could take us back to 132.79 that should be able to protect the upside at any time.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.08 and have placed our stop at 133.25. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 132.55 or upon a break below 131.63 and use the same stop at 133.25.

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Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6210 or upon a break above 1.6545 (one order done cancels the other). Place stop+revers at 1.6120.

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In the face of ongoing strengthening in the greenback, the USD/CHF pair would continue its upward journey this week, reaching the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150. Therefore, any shallow pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to go long. This week so far, the price has been moving only sideways.

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The GBP/USD pair has made a bullish reversal after touching the lower boundary of the long-term downward sloping wedge. There is more upside to be expected towards 1.5280, but traders should now be very cautious as we are mid-range between support and resistance.

In the 4-hour chart, prices have entered the Ichimoku cloud turning short-term trend to neutral from bearish. Short-term support is found at 1.5080 and below that at 1.5030. Resistance is seen at 1.5170 and next at 1.5280.

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The EUR/USD pair was very volatile yesterday during the Rate announcement of the ECB, but finally broke above the resistance level at 1.0640 and even tested 1.0950. The downward sloping wedge was finally broken upwards, and the stochastic oscillator verified after giving bullish divergence signals.

Blue lines -bullish wedge

A short-term trend has changed to bullish after yesterday's ECB press conference. The price broke out and above the Ichimoku cloud, and the downward sloping wedge. The price has now reached the minimum bounce target of the 38% Fibonacci retracement. With the announcement of the US non-farm payrolls today, we should expect another exciting trading day.
Blue lines - wedge pattern

EUR/USD has broken above the daily kijun-sen resistance and has chances to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the Ichimoku cloud. However, traders should be very cautious amid the NFP coming out today as there are many chances of a pullback towards 1.07.

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Overview:

According to the previous events and news, the USD/CAD pair is still moving in a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (at the level of 1.3214) and 100% Fibonacci retracement (at the level of 1.3456). In particular, the USD/CAD pair is expected to form a double top at the level of 1.3456. Consequently, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.3456 with the first target at 1.3286 to test the minor support. Additionally, if the trend can break the minor support at the level of 1.3286, it might resume to 1.3214 in order to test the major support. On the other hand, the stop loss should be set above the level of 1.3500. Nevertheless, check out market volatility before investing because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios become invalid.

Intraday technical levels:

Pair:USD/CAD

R3: 1.3510
R2: 1.3455
R1: 1.3404
PP: 1.3349
S1: 1.3298
S2: 1.3243
S3: 1.3192

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Overview

With 186.00 minor resistance intact, a further fall is still expected in the GBP/JPY pair. A consolidation pattern from 180.36 was completed at 188.79. A deeper fall is expected to test the support zone of 180.36/64. Above minor resistance of 186.00, a bias will turn neutral again. But we will maintain this bearish view as long as resistance of 188.79 holds. This is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200. A breakout at 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious on strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 which can finally bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.46; (P) 185.17; (R1) 186.34;

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Overview

Silver price bounced bullishly after an attempt to break out the level of 13.96 yesterday, to fluctuate around the EMA50 again, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum gradually to reach the overbought areas, which forms negative factor that we expect to push the price lower. Silver price keeps moving near the EMA 50, while stochastic enters the overbought levels, reinforcing our expectations for the main bearish trend continuation, which is next main targets at 13.50 and then at 13.00. In general, we will keep our bearish trend expectations if the price settles below 14.25 today, where breaching this level might push the price towards the level of 14.85 in order to test it before any new attempt to decline takes place.

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Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,064.75

R2: 1,069.10

R3: 1,076.15

Support levels:

S1: 1,050.70

S2: 1,046.35

S3: 1,039.35

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold because we have a strong rejection from our resistance and gold is in the strong downward trend. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has dropped to $13.70 levels today before pulling back higher again. Please note that the metal is bouncing off the support and resistance lines within the cone consolidation precisely. The metal has formed a bullish pin bar candlestick pattern on the 4H chart view, as seen here, right at the support trend line. It is now expected to stage a rally through $14.20/30 levels, which is resistance trend line. A break above from there would be extremely bullish and could see prices rising quickly through the $15.00 and higher levels. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions now, with risk at $13.45 levels. Immediate support is seen at $13.65 levels while resistance is seen at $14.05 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain/Initiate fresh long positions now, stop at $13.45, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has finally dropped to our measured fibonacci support levels around $1,079.00/80.00 today. The metal is now expected to form bottom around current levels, and stage an extended rally towards $1,125.00 and $1,136.00 levels respectively. Please note that $1,079.00 levels is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally from $1,057.00 to $1,113.00 respectively. Furthermore, note that the recent resistance has turned into support, this area is also around the same levels. A bullish reversal should be expected here and hence recommendations are to initiate fresh long positions with risk at $1,060.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,060.00 levels, while resistance is seen at $1,107.00 levels respectively. Looking higher from current levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long from here, stop at $1,060.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair continues to drift sideways for now within 127.50 and 128.50 levels respectively. The pair should be looking to stage at least a counter trend rally towards 130.50 levels in the sessions to come. Please note that a short term resistance line is also passing through the 130.50 levels; a break higher would lead towards 132.50.60 levels heading for the next resistance line. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further evidence to initiate positions. Immediate support is seen at 126.75 levels while resistance is seen at 130.75 respectively. Bulls would remain poised to remain in control till prices stay above 126.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair seems to have formed intermediary low at 1.4350 levels for now. But the pair really needs to push above 1.4825 resistance levels to confirm that bulls are back and poised to remain in control in the short term. The pair is trading around 1.4523 levels for now, after bouncing off the fibonacci 0.786 levels of the rally between 1.4350 and 1.4575 levels respectively. The pair should be looking to push prices towards at least 1.4700/30 levels if not higher. It is hence recommended to remain long from yesterday and move risk to break even levels for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.4375 levels while resistance is seen through1.4650 levels, followed by 1.4825 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long from yesterday, stop at break even levels, a target 1.4730.

Good luck!

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Previously, the EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (August, September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish pressure, which existed around the level of 1.1450.

Hence, a long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0570 occurs before the end of this month (January).

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which provided significant bearish resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles, closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A quick bearish decline towards the previous weekly level at 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Weekly fixation below 1.4950 opened the way towards 1.4620 which was broken-down last week as well.

Moreover, the previous weekly candlestick closed below the depicted demand level at 1.4620. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards the next demand level (1.4360) should be expected.

On the other hand, another bullish closure above 1.4610 brings bullish strength into the market. The first bullish target would be located at 1.4950.

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The daily chart shows a bullish Flag pattern that was initiated around the level of 0.6230 on September 23.

On November 30, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around 0.6520 where the depicted uptrend came to meet the NZD/USD pair.

Shortly after, a bullish breakout above 0.6600 (the upper limit of the flag pattern) took place. This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 0.6800.

As anticipated, temporary bearish rejection existed around the price level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on December 16.

An estimated projection target for this flag pattern remains at 0.6950 when the NZD/USD pair manages to keep trading above 0.6750 and 0.6840.

On the other hand, a daily closure below 0.6750 invalidated the depicted uptrend, allowing a quick bearish decline initially towards the price level of 0.6600 which was broken-down as well.

The price level of 0.6500 remains a significant support level for the pair where a new bullish swing may be initiated towards 0.6600 and 0.6700.

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Overview:

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart). A long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270.

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Since then, another consolidation range was established between 1.2800 and 1.3400.

Few weeks ago, a bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was needed to enable a further bearish decline towards 1.2900. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

A bullish breakout above 1.3400 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) was performed on December 7.

Daily fixation above 1.3400 enhanced the bullish side of the market.

A bullish visit towards the next resistance level of 1.4150 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expected to take place. Temporary bullish fixation above 1.4150 is being manifested on the daily chart.

Note that bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhances the bullish side of the market towards 1.4600 where 141.4% Fibonacci expansion is located.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for a valid buy entries if a bearish correction occurs.

Trading recommendations:

Risky traders can wait for enough bearish rejection to be expressed (bearish engulfing candlestick closure below the price level of 1.4100).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for the USD/CAD pair to retrace towards the zone around 1.3400 looking for a low-risk buy entry. S/L should be placed below 1.3300.

The initial T/P levels should be placed at 1.3500 and 1.3600. The long-term bullish target is projected towards 1.4140.

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Resistance levels:

R11.6674

R21.6721

R31.6791

Support levels:

S11.6526

S21.6481

S31.6406

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Resistance levels:

R11,284.51

R21,288.01

R31,293.91

Support levels:

S11,272.91

S21,269.32

S31,263.51

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Daily persistence below the price level of 1.1402 is required to see to it that the price continue to the lowerside with levels 1.1331, 1.1211, and 1.1151 as the key targets.

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During this day our bearish destinations for the this pair is located at 1.4476, 1.4301, 1.4221, and finally at 1.3846.

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During this intraday, bullish accelation above 0.6851 (recent support) is needed to maintain enough bullish thrash. Long targets are around around 0.6961, 0.7051, and 0.7152.